1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:08,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,080 --> 00:00:13,480 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Weekend, our global look at 3 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 2: the top stories in the coming week from our day 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 2: Break anchors all around the world. Straight Ahead on the program, 5 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,639 Speaker 2: a look at key inflation data in the US and 6 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:24,279 Speaker 2: what it means for the FED. I'm Tom Busby in 7 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 2: New York. I'm Stephen Carolyn London. 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 3: Where we're looking at how European efforts to attract foreign 9 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 3: direct investment or hitting some turbulence ahead of a major 10 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 3: summits in France. 11 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:36,240 Speaker 4: I'm Brian Curtis in Hong Kong. We look ahead to 12 00:00:36,280 --> 00:00:39,559 Speaker 4: big tech earnings in China and whether they might provide 13 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:41,400 Speaker 4: some momentum to recent games. 14 00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 5: That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 15 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 5: E Love the three Own New York, Bloomberg ninety nine 16 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 5: to one, Washington, DC, Bloomberg one O six one, Boston, 17 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:58,760 Speaker 5: Bloomberg nine sixty, San Francisco, DAB, Digital Radio, London, Sirius 18 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 5: XM one nineteen and around the world on Bloomberg Radio 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,559 Speaker 5: dot com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,479 Speaker 2: Good day to you. I'm Tom Busby, and we begin 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 2: today's program with some key US economic data out this week, 22 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: including CPI, PPI, and retail sales for April. What could 23 00:01:18,880 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: all this mean for Fed policy going forward? For more, 24 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 2: we're joined by Edward Harrison Bloomberg, Senior editor and writer 25 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 2: of the Everything Risk newsletter. 26 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:29,279 Speaker 6: Well, Edward. 27 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 2: After a dip to three point one percent in January, 28 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:36,120 Speaker 2: overall consumer prices in February and March little higher than forecast, 29 00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 2: a troubling sign. What do you expect to see for April? 30 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 6: Yeah, Tom, great to talk to you. 31 00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 7: I think what we expect on Tuesday, that's when the 32 00:01:47,280 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 7: CPI comes out. 33 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 6: The consensus is for three point six. 34 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 7: Percent for the core and three point four percent overall. 35 00:01:57,960 --> 00:01:59,960 Speaker 6: So core inflation has acted. 36 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 7: She's been running higher on average over the last year 37 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 7: than CPI when you include food and energy, and because 38 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 7: those prices have come down and that's dragging the total down. 39 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 7: But those numbers are really elevated relative to where the 40 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,320 Speaker 7: Fed wants to go. Now, last month we had a 41 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 7: three point eight number for the core number. This month 42 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 7: we expect three point six. So three point eight terrible. 43 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 7: Three point six less terrible, but also not that great. 44 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 2: Well, moving in the right direction at least it's not 45 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:38,280 Speaker 2: close to the to FED two percent target, but it 46 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: appears to be moving the right way. 47 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 7: That's exactly right. And I think that, you know, for 48 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 7: the FED, the real question is and I think J. 49 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 7: Powell got to this last week or the week before 50 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 7: last actually when the FED met, he was talking about, 51 00:02:53,480 --> 00:02:56,080 Speaker 7: we're not going to cut anytime soon. And so what 52 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 7: they're looking for are two preconditions. One is exactly what 53 00:02:59,919 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 7: you mentioned, Tom, which is that it's moving in the 54 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 7: right direction. So what we want to see is that 55 00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,679 Speaker 7: three point eight number come down. But we also want 56 00:03:07,720 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 7: to see that number be a lot lower. And so 57 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 7: that's the second precondition that we haven't met. If we 58 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 7: get to three percent, say, then I think you start thinking, wow, 59 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 7: maybe the FED has room to start cutting interest rates. 60 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 7: So three percent anything with a two handle, you know, 61 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 7: two point nine, two point eight, which we can't expect 62 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 7: next week, but potentially down the line we can expect that. 63 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the factors for this stubbornly high inflation. 64 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 2: And I have to figure you tell me the rising 65 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 2: cost of housing, buying, renting, whatever it takes, is that 66 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 2: the biggest one. 67 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 6: Yeah, that is the sticky wicket. So to speak. 68 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 7: The real problem is, you know, this is something worldwide 69 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 7: that people are seeing, is that we're seeing a shortage 70 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 7: of housing. You could call this some that is a 71 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 7: outgrowth of the Great Financial Crisis, which was only which 72 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 7: was fifteen years ago. But the pain from that crisis 73 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 7: was so big for home builders that we had a 74 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 7: birth of building. And so now that the economy is back, 75 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 7: there simply isn't enough housing to absorb. 76 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 6: The demand for new housing. With this new. 77 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:28,760 Speaker 7: Cohort, the millennials looking to now establish their own houses, 78 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 7: and so that means that both buying and renting houses 79 00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 7: in the United States is going up and that is sticky. 80 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 7: That along with services inflation, are the two things that 81 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 7: are keeping the FED on hold for the foreseeable future. 82 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 2: But if we do see inflation moderating, and I don't 83 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,159 Speaker 2: think that's going to happen anytime with housing, at the 84 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,680 Speaker 2: same time, we're seeing signs that the US labor market 85 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 2: may be softening after April's jobs report. What does that 86 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 2: mean for the FED moving forward? If we do see that. 87 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 7: I think yeah, they're what they're looking for is the 88 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 7: so called soft landing. And when you can define the 89 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 7: soft landing as you know, a growth that is below 90 00:05:13,160 --> 00:05:15,840 Speaker 7: trend and their trend they would consider, you know, something 91 00:05:15,880 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 7: in the order of one point eight percent annualized. So 92 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 7: let's say you have one percent one and a half 93 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:25,799 Speaker 7: percent growth and you also have inflation declining towards their target, 94 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,279 Speaker 7: that would be considered a soft landing. And you know, 95 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 7: we saw the jobless claims last week. They were showing 96 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 7: us that we're moving in that direction. They were slightly elevated. 97 00:05:36,760 --> 00:05:39,640 Speaker 7: It wasn't a terrible number. It doesn't mean that the 98 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 7: economy isn't still making jobs, but it does give the 99 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:47,080 Speaker 7: FED some thought that we're moving in the soft landing direction. 100 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 6: Well, let's hope. 101 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 2: Let's hope. Now, one other data point investors get this 102 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 2: Wednesday is retail sales for April. What do you expect 103 00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 2: to see there? And you know, with inflation people pulling 104 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 2: back spending, what do you hope to see? 105 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:01,760 Speaker 7: I would say that's the big wild card for this 106 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 7: week is the Wednesday number, because the prior numbers were 107 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 7: one percent a month on month increases. Even if you 108 00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 7: take out autos, we had one point one percent. We 109 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,719 Speaker 7: had one point one for the control group, which is 110 00:06:17,760 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 7: sort of the thing that people look at the most 111 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:21,799 Speaker 7: and that's a very high number. 112 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 6: The expectation is it's. 113 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 7: For a mini increase zero point one percent, And if 114 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 7: we go above those numbers, it's hard to say how 115 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 7: the market will. 116 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 6: React based upon that. 117 00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 7: It could be that because the number is zero point 118 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 7: two or zero point three, the market's fine, But those 119 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 7: numbers are above expectations, and so anything that shows that 120 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 7: the consumer is actually still hanging in there more than expected, 121 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 7: I think will be met with negativity by the market 122 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 7: because it would show that the Fed needs to. 123 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 6: Be on a hold for longer in order to bring 124 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 6: inflation down. 125 00:07:01,320 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 2: Well, well, we've got a lot to look forward to, 126 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 2: and our thanks to Edward Harrison. He's Bloomberg senior editor 127 00:07:07,600 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 2: and the writer of the Everything Risk newsletter. Well, we 128 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 2: turn now to corporate earnings, and this coming week we 129 00:07:14,040 --> 00:07:17,000 Speaker 2: hear from the home improvement retailer home Depot on Tuesday, 130 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,600 Speaker 2: in the world's biggest retailer, Walmart on Thursday. So what 131 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: will the results tell us about the health of US consumers? 132 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 2: For more, we're joined by John Edwards, Bloomberg News US 133 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 2: Consumer team leader. John, Thanks for being here, great to 134 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 2: be here. Well, let's start with home Depot, the nation's 135 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 2: biggest do it yourself chain. What are you expecting to 136 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 2: see from Home Depot? 137 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 8: Well, last quarter they had their fifth straight decline in 138 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:43,320 Speaker 8: comparable sales, and it looks like they're going to have 139 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:47,240 Speaker 8: their sixth straight in this coming quarter. So we're looking 140 00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 8: at sales probably being down about two percent as they 141 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 8: continue to just face this challenging environment. You know, consumers 142 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 8: are pretty resilt but also weary from the persistent inflation. 143 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 8: You know, it's obviously moderated, but you know it's it's 144 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 8: not deflation. So you know, people still remember when prices 145 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 8: were lower, you know, not that long ago, and so 146 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 8: they're pulling back, especially on their big ticket purchases, and 147 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 8: so Home Depot is going to continue to suffer from that. 148 00:08:22,840 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 8: But you know, it does look like there's some you know, 149 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 8: possible green shoots for them that that could you know, 150 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,679 Speaker 8: perhaps lead to some outperformance. They had some they had 151 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:38,560 Speaker 8: a decent discounting event, a sort of spring Black Friday 152 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:43,760 Speaker 8: event that ran through April, and that might help them 153 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 8: a little bit on the sort of do it yourself 154 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 8: or end. And then of course there's their professional contractor sales, 155 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 8: which are a big focus for them and those are 156 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 8: probably holding up decently. 157 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 2: So well, this time of year is when you spruce 158 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 2: up the launch, when you start those projects, and when 159 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 2: you do even just spring cleaning. Now that has got 160 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 2: to help them. But is it higher prices, Is it 161 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 2: worries about the economy, about jobs that maybe holding things back? 162 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:14,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's it's all of that. And you know, 163 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 8: of course the you know, sort of the housing situation itself, 164 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 8: you know, with existing home sales being relatively relatively weak. Yeah, 165 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 8: so we'll look to see if that starts to bottom out, 166 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 8: you know, but we're probably not going to see that 167 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 8: for this this quarter that they're going to be reporting. 168 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 8: So they're they're you know, analysts are saying that things 169 00:09:36,280 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 8: might start to look better for them toward the end 170 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 8: of this year into twenty twenty five. 171 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:44,360 Speaker 2: Well, you talked about how the housing market impacts home deepot. 172 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: We know from Whirlpool that said people are not buying 173 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 2: these big appliances because they're not moving. Yeah, and these 174 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 2: got to be high margin purchases for home depots. So 175 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 2: is it just that, is it barbecue grills, is it 176 00:09:58,880 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 2: you know, is it everything? 177 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, it's it's it's a bit of everything. 178 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 8: And you mentioned those big ticket purchases again, that is 179 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,360 Speaker 8: exactly what people are pulling back on, in part because 180 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 8: they bought so many of those things during the pandemic 181 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 8: as they were stuck at home and spruced up their 182 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 8: homes because they weren't going anywhere else. And you know, 183 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,680 Speaker 8: so now they have things that you know, last you know, three, 184 00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 8: four or five years, and so they don't need to 185 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:25,200 Speaker 8: buy another one. So that's that's one of the things 186 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:29,719 Speaker 8: that they're running into still difficult comparisons. But you know, 187 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 8: again that focus on professional contractors is you know, sort 188 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 8: of something that they're increasingly you know, sort of aiming at. 189 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,840 Speaker 8: And we saw that of course with their big purchase 190 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 8: announcement of SRS Distribution, you know, an eighteen billion dollar 191 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 8: acquisition that they announced last quarter. 192 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,520 Speaker 2: So well, like everyone else, it's services. Services will will 193 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 2: lead you to the future, will Well let's move on 194 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:01,560 Speaker 2: to Walmart. So what do you expect to see in 195 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 2: their results and their outlook for the. 196 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 6: Rest of the year. 197 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 8: Yeah, so Walmart is looking like you know, they uh, 198 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,840 Speaker 8: you know, they will probably benefit from this environment as 199 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 8: as people uh, you know start to look for value 200 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:21,200 Speaker 8: and and perhaps trade down from from higher priced retailers. Uh, 201 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 8: so we are probably going to see their same story 202 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 8: sales increase. It looks like the Easter season was pretty 203 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 8: uh solid for them. And uh again with that, you know, 204 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 8: sort of value seeking among consumers. 205 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:36,040 Speaker 9: Uh. 206 00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,000 Speaker 8: You know, Walmart tends to do pretty well with that. 207 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 8: You know, they are you know, also looking at areas 208 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 8: beyond retail, uh to to seek further growth, you know. 209 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 8: And and they made an announcement of their own of 210 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:54,120 Speaker 8: an acquisition of Visio, the the TV makers, and uh, 211 00:11:54,160 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 8: you know, some people were a little surprised, you know, 212 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 8: Walmart getting into making TVs, but this is all an 213 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 8: advertising play. You know, they have their internal advertising business 214 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:09,080 Speaker 8: Walmart Connect and Visio of course serves ads to people 215 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,200 Speaker 8: who have their smart TVs. 216 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 2: And so the idea and streaming TV service, that's exactly 217 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 2: it's all connected. 218 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 8: Yes, So so that's you know, that's so that's one 219 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,679 Speaker 8: area that the Walmart is looking at to sort of 220 00:12:21,760 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 8: diversify and you know, continue to build even as they 221 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 8: you know, try to maximize their strengths with you know, 222 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 8: sort of general retail. 223 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 2: Well, a lot of big earnings coming up and our 224 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 2: thanks to John Edwards, Bloomberg News US Consumer team Leader, 225 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:39,120 Speaker 2: and coming up on Bloomberg day Break weekend to look 226 00:12:39,160 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: at how European efforts to attract foreign investments are hitting 227 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:57,599 Speaker 2: some turbulence. I'm Tom Busby, and this is Bloomberg. This 228 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,160 Speaker 2: is Bloomberg day Break weekend, our global look ahead, the 229 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 2: top stories for investors in the coming week, and up 230 00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:05,160 Speaker 2: later in our program a look at some key tech 231 00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 2: earnings in China and whether they might provide some momentum 232 00:13:08,960 --> 00:13:12,719 Speaker 2: to recent stock market gains. But first, European economies have 233 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 2: seen a strong start to twenty twenty four, with signs 234 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,719 Speaker 2: of growth and economic activity picking up, and as the 235 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 2: European Central Bank prepares to cut rates, leaders are looking 236 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:26,200 Speaker 2: to build on that momentum with foreign investments. French President 237 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 2: Emmanuel Macron will attempt to wu international investors at this 238 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:33,559 Speaker 2: week's annual Choose France summit. For more, let's go to 239 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 2: London and bring in Bloomberg Daybreak eurobanker Stephen Carroll tom born. 240 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 3: In twenty eighteen to promote France as a business and 241 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 3: investment destination. The pace of Versailles serves as the opulent 242 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,280 Speaker 3: backdrop for Emmanuel Macron's Choose France summits now in its 243 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 3: seventh year. It brings global CEOs together with top level 244 00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:55,839 Speaker 3: French officials to encourage them, as the name suggests, to 245 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,520 Speaker 3: choose France, and it seems to be working. France recently 246 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:03,720 Speaker 3: has come out on top again in Ey's FDI attractiveness survey, 247 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 3: at least by number of projects rather than value. But 248 00:14:06,880 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 3: that's led the French finance Minister Bruno Lemayer to pat 249 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 3: his government on the back for the economic reforms they've passed. 250 00:14:13,640 --> 00:14:15,960 Speaker 3: But as our Bloomberg opinion columnist Leonella Roah has been 251 00:14:15,960 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 3: writing recently that Pitch could be hitting some turbulence. Political 252 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 3: riffs between Paris and top corporate leaders seem to be 253 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 3: on the rise, a widening gap between the US and 254 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 3: Europe in terms of economic growth and approach to managing 255 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 3: the energy transition, as the French oil major Totel NLG 256 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 3: threatening to unchoose France by moving its stock market listing 257 00:14:35,920 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 3: across the Atlantic. Now, the economic outlook in France and 258 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: across Europe just isn't as bright as in the US, 259 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 3: and that's something that we've been discussing with Rafaela Tenconi, 260 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 3: chief economist at Ada economics. 261 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 10: France in relative terms definitely is in a better position 262 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 10: than Germany, but a lot of the growth, to be honest, 263 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 10: is in the periphery, you know, I mean, Italy is 264 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 10: surprisingly resilient, Greece is resilient, Eastern Europe is quite resil 265 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:04,920 Speaker 10: I mean, given the weakness of the exports. In reality, 266 00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 10: you know, the Union is not doing too bad. Of course, 267 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 10: the critical ingredient here is lower rates. If the ECB 268 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:15,040 Speaker 10: does not cut rates, then we're stuck in stagnation and 269 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:19,640 Speaker 10: then you will begin to see unemployment next year. But 270 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 10: it appears the ECB has finally come around to the 271 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 10: idea that one hundred basis points of using that's our review, 272 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 10: you know, this year is tolerable, if not desirable. So 273 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 10: that is enough to really reinnite lending activity. 274 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 5: And so to that. 275 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 11: Some of the fundamental challenges for Europe being low market 276 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 11: valuations in Europe versus the US, really even more deep 277 00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 11: low valuations than we've seen in previous decades, and kind 278 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 11: of geopolitical challenges from Ukraine to Chinese Engene things visiting Europe, 279 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 11: and that's one of the kind of big issues that 280 00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 11: has held back Germany. Do you see that changing the 281 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 11: low valuations too. We're also in a still an earning 282 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:05,720 Speaker 11: secession in Europe. 283 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 10: Well, momentum is slightly more constructive because valuation are so low, 284 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 10: and I think in any case there is a delta 285 00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 10: that is coming through. But structurally Europe needs to address, 286 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 10: you know, the single market, needs to deepen the Single market. 287 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 10: So I am for the first time in many, many years, 288 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 10: I'm encouraged to see genuine political backing. You know, there 289 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:32,200 Speaker 10: was the letter report presented. Drug is also pushing for that, 290 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,480 Speaker 10: and if the European elections in June go has the 291 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 10: opinion poll's signal, then you will begin to see deepening 292 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 10: of the Single market already next year, where retail participation 293 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 10: also will become a better ingredient. And that is very 294 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 10: important because as I said before, European households have too 295 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,960 Speaker 10: much cash at hand. They're used to deflation. We are 296 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,000 Speaker 10: no longer in deflation historically, so not having a function 297 00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 10: in capital market, it is creating negative wealth effects. 298 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:06,400 Speaker 3: So that was Rafaela Tenconi, chief economist at Ada Economics, 299 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 3: speaking to myself and Carline Hepger on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe. 300 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 3: So is foreign investment then Europe's ticket to economic acceleration. 301 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,480 Speaker 3: I've been discussing this with Bloomberg's europe correspondent at large, 302 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,440 Speaker 3: Alberta and Ardeli, and I started by asking him why 303 00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 3: fire interact investment is so important in Europe right now. 304 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 9: I think if we look at the current geopolitical climate 305 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 9: and economic climate around the world, it's very significant. So 306 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:36,159 Speaker 9: you have like a contest almost between the US, Europe, 307 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 9: and China trying to attract or lock in investment in 308 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 9: their respective geographical areas. And Europe is a bit struggling 309 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 9: in this sense right now because its strength has really 310 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 9: been this international rules based order. So Europe is strong 311 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 9: when everyone plays by the same rules. But in recent 312 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 9: times we've seen a protectists really shift in the United States, 313 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 9: China doesn't really play by those same rules, and Europe 314 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,680 Speaker 9: is kind of stuck in the middle trying to figure out. 315 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 9: On the one hand, trying to defend and push for 316 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 9: the rules. On the other hand, is trying to change 317 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 9: its models to adapt to this new world. But this 318 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 9: takes time, and it's difficult in a continent of twenty 319 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 9: seven different countries with different politics, different views to come 320 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 9: up with a united position on how to deal with 321 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 9: these issues. 322 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, and of course we've seen some of that play 323 00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,919 Speaker 3: out in the recent trip from the Chinese president visiting France, 324 00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 3: Hungary and Serbia, notably with each of those individual governments 325 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 3: very keen to try and attract attention from China for investment. 326 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,920 Speaker 3: Do events like Choose France help when it comes to 327 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,080 Speaker 3: boosting a country's individual profile. 328 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 9: Absolutely. I think if you look at the specific French initiative, 329 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 9: what sets it apart from other similar initiatives, say in 330 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 9: other European countries, is really the profile of the event. 331 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 9: Because most countries have FDI forums or events to try 332 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 9: and attract business and investment, be it something specific like 333 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 9: a startups or emerging technologies or bilateral relations with a country. 334 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 9: The thing that's kind of different about the French initiative 335 00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 9: is its profile, the pomp and so there's also substance, 336 00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 9: but other events have substance. It really is the profile 337 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:28,720 Speaker 9: that sets it apart. 338 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:33,360 Speaker 3: Doesn't help to counter a negative image that France has, 339 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,920 Speaker 3: and the present Emmanuel Macron has really struggled to try 340 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,359 Speaker 3: and combat this of it being a difficult place to 341 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 3: invest in, a difficult place to do business, something that's 342 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,920 Speaker 3: often leveled by international investors at many parts of Europe 343 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,120 Speaker 3: because of it being a regulatory power house. 344 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:50,160 Speaker 9: It does in the sense that so on the one hand, 345 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 9: there have been reforms in France corporation tax, they've been 346 00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 9: tax incentsives for R and D. It's easier to set 347 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,359 Speaker 9: up companies now, there's lots of they're trying to cut uocracy, 348 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:04,560 Speaker 9: lots of the other difficulties remain, so communicating those changes 349 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 9: definitely helps. The other thing, which I believe is kind 350 00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 9: of helping France is the fact that it has long 351 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:16,919 Speaker 9: pushed this idea of European sovereignty, and that idea often 352 00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 9: fell on deaf ears. But because of a changing geopolitical 353 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 9: context where the United States, for example, is taking a 354 00:20:25,560 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 9: more robust approach to try and onshore investments and rely 355 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:34,440 Speaker 9: more on its own components and raw materials and so on, 356 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:38,479 Speaker 9: Macron's view of the world has more appeal now than 357 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 9: it did, say a few years ago. On the flip 358 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 9: side of that is, many times other countries perceive what 359 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:49,680 Speaker 9: when Macron says we must do more in Europe, etc. 360 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 9: He really means France, And there's a bit of skepticism 361 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,560 Speaker 9: in other countries around this agenda. 362 00:20:56,480 --> 00:21:00,560 Speaker 3: Is there a lot of inter European competition for in investment? 363 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 3: You know, is France sort of slightly eating the lunch 364 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 3: of its neighbors as well and holding an event like this. 365 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 9: That's a very good question. It's actually one of the 366 00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,719 Speaker 9: biggest debates right now in Europe because, for example, if 367 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 9: you take state aid, there's a debate in Europe that 368 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 9: rules around state aid should be loosened so that governments 369 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 9: can invest more in critical sectors because that is the 370 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 9: only way to compete with China and the US and others. 371 00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 9: The challenge with that approach, however, is that a country 372 00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:36,959 Speaker 9: like France or Germany they have resources that a country 373 00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:42,080 Speaker 9: like Latvia or Estonia don't have. So the risk is 374 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,960 Speaker 9: that it distorts the internal European market. So right now 375 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,359 Speaker 9: you have some countries which have focused very much on 376 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 9: the innovative, on the cutting edge, and they've really attracted 377 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 9: investments in those sectors, say drones in Latvia, for example. 378 00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,119 Speaker 9: When a giant compared to them enters that same space, 379 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 9: they can put up a lot more state aid investments. 380 00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,919 Speaker 9: So if you look at where chip manufacturers or electric 381 00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 9: vehicle manufacturers are setting up shop, they usually tend to 382 00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 9: go to France, to Germany rather than other countries. That's 383 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 9: a challenge. 384 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,680 Speaker 3: This is something that Enrica Letter brought up also in 385 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,200 Speaker 3: his recent reporter looking at reforms to the internal market 386 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 3: in the EU. Is there appetite at a European level 387 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 3: to try to counterbalance. 388 00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 5: Some of that? 389 00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 9: I think this reform of the single market, let's call it, 390 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:41,239 Speaker 9: in areas such as defense, is going to be one 391 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 9: of the biggest debates once the new European Commission comes 392 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 9: into play and the challenges. The short answer to your 393 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 9: question is their appetite. In Europe. There is appetite, and 394 00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:58,760 Speaker 9: there is a realization that there isn't really a choice. 395 00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 9: There is a war on Europe's doorstep. Europe has to 396 00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:08,399 Speaker 9: reform its defense industry and the way it functions. However, 397 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 9: there are lots of butts in this debate. So countries 398 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 9: will say, yes, we want to do this, however we 399 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 9: don't want to do, for example, joint borrowing. But those 400 00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,240 Speaker 9: voices don't often say, well, where are we going to 401 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:25,800 Speaker 9: find at least one hundred billion euros to invest in 402 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 9: our defense industries if it's not through joint borrowing. Other 403 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 9: countries such as France. Yes, we must invest in defense, 404 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:39,600 Speaker 9: but we must invest in only in European companies, supply chains, 405 00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 9: et cetera, et cetera. So again it goes back to this, 406 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 9: do you really mean France when you say this, rather 407 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:49,440 Speaker 9: than looking at what is the actual defense need that 408 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,720 Speaker 9: Europe has as a whole. So it's a very complicated question. 409 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,879 Speaker 3: As with everything in the European Union, it gets very complex, 410 00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 3: and you've twenty seven people sitting around a table. How 411 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 3: much has the Inflation Production Act in the US and 412 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:06,680 Speaker 3: that massive amount of spending changed the conversation around that 413 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 3: in Europe and an ad does it add to a 414 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,800 Speaker 3: realization that something has to be done at a broader 415 00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 3: level rather than an individual country level. 416 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 9: So it has changed the debate dramatically. So, first of all, 417 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 9: Europe was mostly caught by surprise in terms of the 418 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 9: specifics there was. Secondly, it had an impact on the relationship, 419 00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 9: at least in trade between the European Union and the 420 00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:35,480 Speaker 9: United States. So had they not been Russia's war against Ukraine, 421 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 9: the EU would have sued the United States at the 422 00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:44,159 Speaker 9: w too, would have been a lot more assertive in 423 00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 9: its response, And the only reason it didn't is because 424 00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 9: it wanted to maintain unity around Ukraine. It has started 425 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 9: to respond, so it has loosened some state aid rules 426 00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 9: in key sectors. It has worked very hard to try 427 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 9: ryan get some concessions from the United States, but these 428 00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 9: concessions have been really limited, and it has created this debate, 429 00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:12,600 Speaker 9: as we were saying before, about can you remain a 430 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,560 Speaker 9: pure champion of a rules based system when not even 431 00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 9: your closest ally is prepared to play by the same rule. 432 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:26,879 Speaker 3: Thanks to Bloomberg's europe correspondent at large Alberta and our deli, 433 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:29,760 Speaker 3: I'm Stephen Carolyn London. You can catch us every weekday 434 00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,920 Speaker 3: morning here for Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, beginning at six am 435 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 3: in London and one am on Wall Street. 436 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,760 Speaker 2: Tom. Thank you, Stephen, and coming up on Bloomberg Daybreak weekend, 437 00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,679 Speaker 2: I'll look ahead to some key tech earnings in China. 438 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:56,439 Speaker 2: I'm Tom Busby and this is Bloomberg. I'm Tom Busby 439 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 2: in New York with your global look ahead at the 440 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 2: top stories for investors in the coming week. China stock 441 00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 2: markets have enjoyed a significant rally in the first part 442 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 2: of this year, and events in the week ahead will 443 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,720 Speaker 2: help answer the question of whether that can continue for more, 444 00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:12,920 Speaker 2: let's go to Daybreak Asia co hosts Brian Curtis and 445 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 2: Doug Krisner. 446 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,919 Speaker 4: Tom Chinese equities have bounced back from multi year lows, 447 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 4: and recently the major benchmarks entered a bull market. 448 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 12: To be fair, those benchmarks still are below their twenty 449 00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:27,920 Speaker 12: twenty one highs by some forty to sixty percent. 450 00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 4: But there's no denying the recent recovery and it may 451 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 4: still have legs if China's tech giants can deliver on 452 00:26:33,600 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 4: their earnings in the coming week. 453 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 12: Heavyweights ten Cent and Ali Baba will both publish results 454 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 12: on Tuesday, followed by JD dot Com and Buy Do 455 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 12: two days later. 456 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 4: Those four firms alone account for more than a quarter 457 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 4: of the MSCI China Index. Earlier, we asked Julia Wong 458 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,080 Speaker 4: from JP Morgan Private Bank if the tech earnings might 459 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 4: be a catalyst for further games. 460 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,159 Speaker 13: I do think that investors' sentiment towards big tech in 461 00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 13: China has already warmed quite a bit on their thing 462 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:03,119 Speaker 13: that we know, like gaming, for example, the regulatory process 463 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 13: worked a little better, so all of that gradually has 464 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 13: dripped through to market and probably are in the price 465 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,159 Speaker 13: at this point, So we do think that earnings, of 466 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 13: course are important, but you know, we do need to 467 00:27:13,520 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 13: see a sustained turnaround in their guidance for the next 468 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 13: few years for the market to do even better from 469 00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 13: where it is today. 470 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 4: For a preview of what we might expect, we're joined 471 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 4: here in Hong Kong by Robert Lee, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior 472 00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:31,440 Speaker 4: Analyst and Sarah Jung Bloomberg China Tech Reporter. Welcome to 473 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,400 Speaker 4: both of you. Thanks very much for joining us. Sarah, 474 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,080 Speaker 4: let me go to you first. Is it fair to 475 00:27:36,160 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 4: say that the big tech companies do need to show 476 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:43,240 Speaker 4: some progress for this rally in equities to move forward 477 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 4: or are there other sectors taking leadership? 478 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,360 Speaker 1: Definitely, I think tech will be the heavyweight that will 479 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 1: determine whether or not we'll see this rally continue to 480 00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 1: go forward. Obviously, because this industry spans so many different 481 00:27:55,760 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: areas online sales, advertising, games, it's definitely been you used 482 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 1: as a gauge of where the Chinese consumer sentiment is 483 00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 1: and if we're really seeing a recovery that we have 484 00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 1: been expecting this year. So it will depend very heavily 485 00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,600 Speaker 1: on how tents and Alibaba and also JD Dot common 486 00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 1: by do report next week. 487 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,320 Speaker 12: Robert, I'm wondering whether we need to consider the fact 488 00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,359 Speaker 12: that these companies may miss on their results. I mean, 489 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 12: if you look back at what happened, let's say, as 490 00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 12: an example, ten Cent, I believe the numbers that the 491 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 12: company reported for the fourth quarter failed to meet expectations. 492 00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,080 Speaker 12: So what happens if there is a miss. 493 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 14: Most of these businesses are quite seasonal in nature, so 494 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,120 Speaker 14: typically Q one, which. 495 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 15: Is what they're about to report, is a weaker period. 496 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 14: So the Q two guidance as things pick up on 497 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 14: a seasonal basis, is absolutely going to be key and crucial. 498 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 14: But I think taking a step back from that, the 499 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 14: China market has been an Hong Kong market of clearly 500 00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 14: being decoupled from Nasdak and most other Western markets. For 501 00:28:57,520 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 14: some period of time, you have seen foreign investors participating. 502 00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,720 Speaker 14: They've been sat on the sidelines or for whatever reasons, 503 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 14: have not been actively in the market. So we're beginning 504 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 14: to see signs of investors and overseas investors coming back 505 00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 14: to the market. So I think obviously fundamentals and guidance 506 00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 14: is key, but I think a bigger thing to keep 507 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 14: this rally going is ongoing participation or growing participation. 508 00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 15: By foreign investors. 509 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 14: You know, perhaps fear of missing out for example, because 510 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,640 Speaker 14: as the index continue needs to rally, or assuming that happens, 511 00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,200 Speaker 14: then this fear of missing out I think will be 512 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 14: potentially a bigger factor that could draw more people into 513 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,400 Speaker 14: the rally and you know, make it more self sustaining. 514 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,960 Speaker 4: Perhaps, if we look at the consensus estimates, ten Cent 515 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,280 Speaker 4: is for a cast you have a six percent increase 516 00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 4: in revenue and Ali Baba just under six percent. That 517 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 4: Robert doesn't sound like the ten Cent and Ali Baba 518 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 4: of yesteryear. 519 00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:58,280 Speaker 14: Absolutely, both companies and the issues impacting Ali Baba are 520 00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 14: perhaps somewhat different, and the competition that's suffering from low 521 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:08,080 Speaker 14: cost disruptors like Timu for example, affecting Ali Baba. But 522 00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:10,800 Speaker 14: both companies are in a more mature phase of development. 523 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:15,840 Speaker 14: Some of that reflects the slower economic outlook within China, 524 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 14: but they're mature businesses now. They're very large, broad spread businesses. 525 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 14: So you know, like a river entering the more mature phase, 526 00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,200 Speaker 14: you would expect the growth of them deliver to be 527 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 14: at a more modest level. But there are some structural 528 00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 14: issues different for both companies that are also I think impacting. 529 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 15: Give you a quick example, saturated markets. 530 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,680 Speaker 14: Again, when China's core markets were building out in the 531 00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 14: first place, you had a multiplier effect which really drove 532 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 14: their growth. But now because the economy is very well 533 00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:46,120 Speaker 14: developed on the technology side and the markets are quite 534 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,840 Speaker 14: well saturated, competition is more of an issue, and in 535 00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 14: a slowing economy that is impacting, always a headwind for 536 00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:54,880 Speaker 14: the growth of both companies. 537 00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:58,520 Speaker 12: Sarah, I'm wondering whether we need to address the regulatory regime. 538 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,719 Speaker 12: We heard from Julia Wangam moment ago. She mentioned games. 539 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:03,920 Speaker 12: When I think of games in China, I think of 540 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:07,239 Speaker 12: ten Cent. This is something obviously that the government has 541 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 12: had a hand in. Is that cloud lifted completely from 542 00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,640 Speaker 12: the market, or do we need to consider the role 543 00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:16,040 Speaker 12: that the government may play in the way in which 544 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,360 Speaker 12: some of these companies are managed going forward. 545 00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 1: Over the last few quarters, we've seen management from both 546 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:23,040 Speaker 1: of these companies that we're talking about, ten Cent and 547 00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:27,600 Speaker 1: Alibaba say that the regulatory environment has stabilized to some extent. 548 00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 1: But then again, you know, we also see that investors 549 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:34,400 Speaker 1: are still reacting to regulatory changes. For example, late last year, 550 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:39,280 Speaker 1: when they had draft gaming curbs the market just reacted 551 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: very strongly, Tensa and Nettie's and other gaming companies falling 552 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 1: quite substantially, and not only swinging back later or earlier 553 00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,480 Speaker 1: this year. So I think investors are still quite skittish 554 00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: about this. But from the broader outlook point of view, 555 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:58,880 Speaker 1: we have seen the regulation stabilized to some extent, even 556 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 1: as those those fear continue to linger and to shadow 557 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 1: over these companies going forward. 558 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 4: Sarah earlier Doug asked about campex and about expanding, but 559 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:12,280 Speaker 4: there has been some room for cost reduction of late 560 00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 4: for some of these companies. 561 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:14,320 Speaker 15: Does that continue. 562 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:16,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, We've seen over the past year a lot of 563 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: these companies focusing very heavily on cost reduction, including layoffs, 564 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:23,959 Speaker 1: massive restructuring. I think Alibaba is a very good example 565 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 1: of that. After they're sort of chaotic year long restructuring, 566 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,080 Speaker 1: we saw that now they're streamlining their focus to just 567 00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 1: focus on their core businesses, so domestic e commerce, international 568 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 1: e commerce, and the cloud side business, and then to 569 00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 1: just sort of shed some of their non core assets 570 00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 1: as they would describe them. So definitely, these companies are 571 00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 1: thinking still about how to streamline costs, how to focus 572 00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:49,120 Speaker 1: in on the areas where they can actually start to 573 00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 1: achieve growth, especially as Robert mentioned, with the domestic environment 574 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: being so competitive, really looking overseas or to other new 575 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 1: areas to still retain. 576 00:32:58,600 --> 00:32:59,280 Speaker 10: Some of that growth. 577 00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:02,600 Speaker 12: Sarah mentioned that these reports may give us a little 578 00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,800 Speaker 12: bit of insight into the health of the Chinese consumer, 579 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,040 Speaker 12: and I'm wondering whether we need to take a step 580 00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 12: back and look at the macro. We know that the 581 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:12,320 Speaker 12: real estate market, the property market in China has still 582 00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:16,720 Speaker 12: been a drag on consumer sentiment. Give me an understanding 583 00:33:16,760 --> 00:33:19,080 Speaker 12: of where China is right now and it's recovery and 584 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 12: how that may manifest in the numbers we see in 585 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:22,640 Speaker 12: the week ahead. 586 00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:26,200 Speaker 14: Okay, so I think the e commerce players such as 587 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:30,040 Speaker 14: p d D and Ali Baba probably more exposed to 588 00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 14: the pressures that were within the domestic economy. But as 589 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,680 Speaker 14: I mentioned earlier, you know, economic growth in China is slowing. 590 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 14: It still is outperforming most other developed economies, but it's 591 00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,800 Speaker 14: entering a more slow, slower face. And so what we're 592 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,600 Speaker 14: seeing is rising competition, particularly again from these low cost disruptors, 593 00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 14: the tmus and machines, both within the domestic China market 594 00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 14: and overseas, which are undercutting the whole business. 595 00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,280 Speaker 15: Proposition of established players like Ali Baba. 596 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,040 Speaker 14: Competitive dynamics I think has been in focus and will 597 00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:07,000 Speaker 14: remain so on the e commerce side for some time. Again, 598 00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:10,319 Speaker 14: given the backdrop of slowing economic growth and as you said, 599 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:12,440 Speaker 14: the pressures from their property sector. 600 00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 4: Robert, it seems like there's a lot more up and 601 00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,840 Speaker 4: coming competition for Ali Barba than perhaps there is for 602 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,960 Speaker 4: ten Cent. Now, I note that you are expecting a 603 00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 4: thirty two percent increase in net income for ten Cent, 604 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:29,399 Speaker 4: and that is presumably I mentioned earlier that ten Cent 605 00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:31,919 Speaker 4: the average for it cash was only for a six 606 00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,759 Speaker 4: percent increase in revenue. That's pretty interesting. So how does 607 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,040 Speaker 4: ten Cent get to a thirty two percent increase in 608 00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 4: net income with revenues only up maybe six or seven percent? 609 00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 15: Very good question. 610 00:34:42,520 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 14: I think some of that's a base effect, because again 611 00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 14: Q one, compared to last year, the economy was just 612 00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:51,080 Speaker 14: reopening at that point and recovering after the COVID lockdown. 613 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,239 Speaker 15: So base effect is one part of that, and a 614 00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:55,120 Speaker 15: Sarah refer to. 615 00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:58,160 Speaker 14: I think the companies across the board have ever been 616 00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 14: cutting costs, managing costs, or keeping costs flat, so there 617 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,400 Speaker 14: has been revenue growth in all companies and with the 618 00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 14: sort of natural operational gearing that's there, then that will 619 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,120 Speaker 14: drive some margin increase and hence drop through to the 620 00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,799 Speaker 14: bottom line. But for a company like ten cents, they're 621 00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,359 Speaker 14: pushing into short videos. Their AI business is still at 622 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 14: a very early stage, but they are applying their large 623 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,359 Speaker 14: language models to help enhance their advertising offering, and there 624 00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:28,719 Speaker 14: is evidence of that coming through, and that's much higher 625 00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:31,840 Speaker 14: margin business. You've got a mix shift to higher margin 626 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,840 Speaker 14: revenue streams. So combination of all three base effect costs, 627 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:40,520 Speaker 14: moderation or cost rationalization and the mix shift towards high 628 00:35:40,600 --> 00:35:42,480 Speaker 14: margin is really what's driving that. 629 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:43,240 Speaker 6: Sarah. 630 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:45,680 Speaker 12: It wasn't that long ago when we were discussing Ali 631 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:49,160 Speaker 12: Baba and the spin off of the logistics armed Sinow 632 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 12: Smart Logistics. Is there a sense now that that is 633 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:53,400 Speaker 12: dead in the water, that we're not going to get 634 00:35:53,440 --> 00:35:56,840 Speaker 12: a breakup of these individual businesses within Ali Baba. 635 00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 6: Yeah. 636 00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,319 Speaker 1: So that's the quite interesting thing because actually literally one 637 00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:03,440 Speaker 1: year ago, that's when Ali Baba was announcing a very 638 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 1: specific timeline for their massive restructuring and all the spinoffs, 639 00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 1: including what you mentioned is the IPO of their religistics 640 00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,480 Speaker 1: arms Hi now spin off of their cloud arm and 641 00:36:14,520 --> 00:36:19,359 Speaker 1: then also of the fresh grocery arm Fresh Hippo. Of course, 642 00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:21,400 Speaker 1: all of those things have now been put on hold. 643 00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 1: Dead in the water is kind of a good term 644 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,520 Speaker 1: to describe it. They've they've just said, oh, the valuation 645 00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:28,800 Speaker 1: isn't where they want it to be, So that's not 646 00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:30,719 Speaker 1: what they're looking at right now, and that's not their 647 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,880 Speaker 1: focus at the moment. And now we've seen Ali Baba 648 00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,320 Speaker 1: go from trying to spin off all their businesses to 649 00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:40,080 Speaker 1: really focusing on their core business As I mentioned. 650 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:40,400 Speaker 2: It's hi now. 651 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 1: For example, they're buying the entire stake now in this 652 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:46,720 Speaker 1: logistics arm to be able to better service their domestic 653 00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:50,279 Speaker 1: and international commerce side. So it's really focusing in on 654 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,960 Speaker 1: these businesses because they're realizing that they've just been bleeding 655 00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,680 Speaker 1: money on some of these other, as they describe it, 656 00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,719 Speaker 1: non core businesses for example offline retail. And we've heard 657 00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:03,000 Speaker 1: things about them exploring different sales of some of these 658 00:37:03,400 --> 00:37:06,920 Speaker 1: businesses for example sun Art and other businesses that they 659 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,239 Speaker 1: don't no longer see as profitable and necessary. So what 660 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:12,759 Speaker 1: we're looking to hear this time from their earnings is 661 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:16,240 Speaker 1: just a clear strategy direction for what's what we're gonna 662 00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,040 Speaker 1: see going forward now that they've sort of unwhound their 663 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:23,439 Speaker 1: whole restructuring spin off sort of plan. What's the plan 664 00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,879 Speaker 1: now to make sure that they can maximize the value 665 00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,120 Speaker 1: from their core businesses. 666 00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:29,520 Speaker 12: I think we can agree that these earnings come at 667 00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:32,040 Speaker 12: a crucial time for the Chinese equity market. Thanks to 668 00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,360 Speaker 12: the both of you for helping us to preview the 669 00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,719 Speaker 12: week ahead and what we are likely to see from 670 00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:39,560 Speaker 12: ten Cent, Ali Baba JD dot com and Buy Do. 671 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:44,520 Speaker 12: Robert Lee, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst and Sarah Jong Bloomberg 672 00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,160 Speaker 12: China Tech Reporter. I'm Doug Prisner along with Brian Curtis 673 00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,480 Speaker 12: in Hong Kong. You can catch us weekdays here from 674 00:37:50,480 --> 00:37:53,600 Speaker 12: Bloomberg Daybreak Asia beginning at eight am in Hong Kong 675 00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,239 Speaker 12: eight pm on Wall Street. Tom. 676 00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:59,440 Speaker 2: Thank you, Doug, and thank you Brian. And that does 677 00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:02,239 Speaker 2: it for this edition of Bloomberg day Break Weekend. Join 678 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,640 Speaker 2: us again Monday morning at five am Wall Street time 679 00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 2: for the latest on markets overseas and the news you 680 00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 2: need to start your day. I'm Tom Buzzby. 681 00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:10,520 Speaker 6: Stay with us. 682 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,759 Speaker 2: Top stories and global business headlines are coming up right 683 00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:14,000 Speaker 2: now