1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single. 2 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 2: Best idea, We'll be quick about it. David Sief joined 3 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 2: us with Mura and we talked about the economics at hand, 4 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 2: the economics of the moment. Here's David Seefe on the 5 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:26,119 Speaker 2: view forward. 6 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 3: I think this is an increasing investor concern, and I 7 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 3: would say a concern of mine as well. Over the 8 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 3: past couple of months, we've seen i'd say, really starting 9 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 3: in April with the sort of post Liberation Day announcement 10 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 3: and then you know, events in the UK, events in 11 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 3: exactly we've seen, crisis happens, the back end sells off, 12 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:50,839 Speaker 3: The crisis then is resolved, and the back end doesn't 13 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:53,559 Speaker 3: come back, so the yield spikes, and then when the 14 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 3: crisis is solved, it just sort of stays there. It 15 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 3: doesn't get any worse. But we've seen the steady steepening 16 00:00:59,120 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 3: of the curve. And it's not the good kind of steepening. 17 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 3: It's not the kind of steepening where people are like, oh, 18 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 3: you know, the economy is going to be growing better, 19 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 3: and therefore longer longer term rate should be or yield 20 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 3: should be higher. It's the kind of steepening where people 21 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 3: are like, Oh, I'm a little worried about what inflation 22 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 3: is going to be. Like globally, I'm a little worried 23 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 3: about you know, what the future holds in terms of risk, 24 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 3: and therefore I demand a higher risk premium for locking 25 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 3: my money up, even with these very safe developed market 26 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 3: economies like in the US, UK, Japan. 27 00:01:32,200 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 2: David see if he's with n Murray as well, special 28 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:37,919 Speaker 2: moment on the show today. We'll make this a point 29 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:41,280 Speaker 2: of explanation, I guess is how I would put it. 30 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 2: You have to start somewhere and long ago and far away. 31 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 2: I started with the support of a small shop called 32 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs. It was Jim O'Neill in London. One day 33 00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: we sat in the basement of Finsbury Square and move 34 00:01:55,440 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 2: the Japanese. Yet, I should say, mister O'Neill moved the Japanese. Yeah, now, 35 00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: Lord O'Neill. And in America it was a tandem of 36 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 2: Bill Dudley and Ed McKelvey Chris. Mister Dudley went on 37 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 2: to the New York Fed and Associated Economic Acclaim. At 38 00:02:12,080 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 2: the time they had two youngsters working for them. One 39 00:02:15,000 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: was Jan Hatzias, who has just done so well with 40 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:23,040 Speaker 2: Golden Sex Economics and Yen's Nordvig more in Foreign Exchange 41 00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 2: from Denmark. Jan's Nordvig was on the show today and 42 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:30,080 Speaker 2: as the President went after the leadership of Golden Sex 43 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 2: and the President went after Jan Hatzias of Golden Sex, 44 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 2: we yes Jens Nordvig to delicately comment, it's. 45 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 4: Rare that you have a situation where the president of 46 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 4: the United States, like is involved in some kind of 47 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 4: tension with an economist at a bank. Right, So we're 48 00:02:46,400 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 4: in an unusual situation. So I think Jan is gonna 49 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:53,399 Speaker 4: continue to do his research, continue to do his forecasting, 50 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:59,399 Speaker 4: and hopefully the management will be dealing with that appropriately 51 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:00,919 Speaker 4: delicate moment. 52 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 2: That's what the management is for. It is incredibly busy August, 53 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 2: so much for the summer long. Really special conversation today 54 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 2: with Michael McKee about Rayevic and Garbage chev and Reagan 55 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 2: and Marie Horden traveling to Anchorage, and we thank Stephanie 56 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 2: Baker in her wonderful book on putinin Sanctions for being 57 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 2: with us as well. We're on Ample podcasts, We're on 58 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:37,560 Speaker 2: Spotify podcasts and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea