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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, let's preview
Speaker 1: the conference finals series for a little bit. We're gonna
Speaker 1: start in the Western Conference, which I think is the
Speaker 1: more interesting of the two series. As is always the
Speaker 1: case with these NBA playoff matchups, you try your best
Speaker 1: to find evidence in the regular season, and then you
Speaker 1: look back and everyone sat out all the games. That's
Speaker 1: that's typically how this kind of thing goes. Although we
Speaker 1: did actually have a couple of decent matchups to look
Speaker 1: at for that Boston Miami series, but Dallas and Golden
Speaker 1: State played four times this year. Dallas was three one
Speaker 1: stars missed every single game. The closest thing to the
Speaker 1: full strength game was on January five in Dallas. It
Speaker 1: was the only time Lucas, Steph, and Draymond all played,
Speaker 1: but obviously Clay Thompson was out of the picture. Dallas
Speaker 1: at the time was starting Kliba and Powell, which was
Speaker 1: a unique thing, and Reggie Bullock was was coming off
Speaker 1: of the bench. Golden State at that point still had
Speaker 1: Gary Payton too, is expected to be out for this series.
Speaker 1: They're playing a lot of Juan Tuscano, Anderson and Damian Lee.
Speaker 1: So again, everything in terms of the regular season matchups
Speaker 1: has to be taken with a certain amount of a
Speaker 1: grain assault just because of the fact that these teams
Speaker 1: are completely different versions of theirselves at this point. Even
Speaker 1: just looking a few months ago, so much changes. The
Speaker 1: playoffs really causes your team to round into the best
Speaker 1: version of itself. It's purest identity. In their individual matchups.
Speaker 1: This year, Steph average twenty points per game on thirty
Speaker 1: nine percent from the field, percent from three, and six
Speaker 1: percent from the free throw line. Not great. We're gonna
Speaker 1: get into a little bit about I think Steph is
Speaker 1: arguably the biggest swing factor of this series. I'll we'll
Speaker 1: get into that a little bit later, Luca was awesome,
Speaker 1: as I expected, um he is. There's nobody on Golden
Speaker 1: State's roster that can realistically guard Luca. You know, maybe
Speaker 1: Draymond it. You really need to keep Draymond and help
Speaker 1: situations right, So you're not exactly expecting uh Luca to
Speaker 1: struggle too much to score individually. Well, he averaged thirty
Speaker 1: two points per game on forty percent from the field,
Speaker 1: thirty eight percent from three percent from the line, So
Speaker 1: almost a uh type of mark there from Luca. Um.
Speaker 1: So again, that's that's all we have in terms of
Speaker 1: regular season evidence. But we're gonna do our best to
Speaker 1: try to sift through that and get into some of
Speaker 1: the details of the series. So you guys know how
Speaker 1: I like to do it. I like to start on
Speaker 1: one side of the ball. We're gonna start with Dallas
Speaker 1: on offense. And again, like I mentioned, nobody can guard Luca.
Speaker 1: The difference between the Phoenix matchup was, you know, there
Speaker 1: Luca didn't have trouble finding guys to attack within Phoenix's scheme,
Speaker 1: but there were guys on the floor that were difficult
Speaker 1: to attack, like Dean Drayton was forcing Luca into some
Speaker 1: pretty tough followay jump shots. Now, he's one of the
Speaker 1: top you know, three or four players in the world,
Speaker 1: so he's gonna make them a lot of the time.
Speaker 1: But that's in terms of a defense. If you can
Speaker 1: force Luca to take step backs or falloways, that's about
Speaker 1: is the best you can do. And DeAndre Ayton did
Speaker 1: a really nice job of that. And then Michael Bridges
Speaker 1: did an amazing job on Luca, And for the most
Speaker 1: part in the series, Luca did everything he could to
Speaker 1: avoid trying to shoot against him, specifically everyone else in
Speaker 1: that roster though he could go at but the problem
Speaker 1: was is like whether he's calling for screens or whatever,
Speaker 1: Mchaal would try to fight through the screen, you know,
Speaker 1: or Luca would be forced to settle for attacking someone
Speaker 1: like DeAndre Ayton. And this Golden State matchup, they're gonna
Speaker 1: probably start Andrew Wiggins on and we saw that in
Speaker 1: the regular season matchups that they had. He has no
Speaker 1: problem scoring on Andrew Wiggins. He's not gonna have any
Speaker 1: problem scoring on anybody on the roster. Again, Draymond is
Speaker 1: arguably one of the ideal physical profiles for a player
Speaker 1: to put on Luca. Really low center of gravity, so
Speaker 1: he's hard to bump off his spots, very strong, super
Speaker 1: long wingspan, quick enough to stay with Luca, and smart enough. Right,
Speaker 1: So in theory, that's smart. Here's the issue. You need
Speaker 1: Draymond green and help. That's where he's most valuable to
Speaker 1: this specific Golden State offense. And if you if Dallas
Speaker 1: puts you in a predicament where you have to put
Speaker 1: Draymond on Luca for the whole series, You're gonna get
Speaker 1: picked apart everywhere else on the floor. And most importantly,
Speaker 1: if Luca happens to get past Draymond, now your back
Speaker 1: line defense is significantly worse. So that makes it a
Speaker 1: lot tougher, and so that that will be one of
Speaker 1: the dynamics of the series is how is how is
Speaker 1: Golden State going to be able to use Draymond? Are
Speaker 1: they gonna have to keep him on Luca? Are they're
Speaker 1: gonna be able to keep him in help? My guesses
Speaker 1: is that they'll keep him in help and just try
Speaker 1: to sacrifice whatever they get in terms of Luca isolations. Now,
Speaker 1: the the the issue here specifically for Golden State is
Speaker 1: obviously matchup attacking takes place all over in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: but Luca in particular, in my opinion, is the best
Speaker 1: at it, at least in this field. Lebron typically is
Speaker 1: the best at this specific skill, but Luca is the
Speaker 1: best at persistently targeting your worst defenders every time down
Speaker 1: the floor. Now, Golden State doesn't have any bad defensive players,
Speaker 1: but they do have small defensive players, and I expect
Speaker 1: Luca to relentlessly hunt Steph Curry in Jordan Pool every
Speaker 1: time down the floor. He's gonna try to get them
Speaker 1: involved in stuff, and Golden State's gonna have a big
Speaker 1: challenge in in in and attempting to keep those two
Speaker 1: away from Luca. We talked about this a little bit
Speaker 1: in last night's show, but the idea of pre switching
Speaker 1: or scramming out of switches, essentially doing gimmicky stuff to
Speaker 1: try to keep Step out of those situations. But Luca
Speaker 1: is known to be able to capitalize on those little
Speaker 1: brief windows that open up as you try to pre
Speaker 1: switch or something like that. So Steph and Jordan Pool
Speaker 1: are gonna have a lot on their plate to try
Speaker 1: to hold their own in isolation matchups against Luca. The other, uh,
Speaker 1: the other big thing that I expect to become a
Speaker 1: swing factor in this series is the Kleiba Powell dynamic.
Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot with Dallas, but when
Speaker 1: Dallas plays Cleba, there a true five out team, which
Speaker 1: is when they have the most space. That's when Lucas
Speaker 1: at his best, That's when Jalen Brunson's at his best.
Speaker 1: That's when Spencer din what he's at his best. Right
Speaker 1: Dwight Powell, it's more of a four out one in thing.
Speaker 1: They're running a lot of pick and roll. He's rolling
Speaker 1: to the rim the space and gets significantly worse. The
Speaker 1: problem with running Powell in particular is Draymond Green is
Speaker 1: one of the best pick and roll big defenders that
Speaker 1: we have in this entire league, arguably the best. And
Speaker 1: if you allow Draymond to operate in normal pick and
Speaker 1: roll defense all series long, you're effectively shaving points. You're
Speaker 1: You're you're playing directly into Golden State's biggest advantage. I
Speaker 1: shared some clips of this that you'll be able to
Speaker 1: see on my twitter feed if you guys look, just
Speaker 1: go to my Twitter feed and click on media and
Speaker 1: scroll down and you'll see some clips that are demonstrating
Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. In the Possessions where Kliba is
Speaker 1: on the floor instead of Powell, Draymond is on Cliba
Speaker 1: and he can't help, or if he does, he's leaving
Speaker 1: Cleiba open. There were several examples where Dallas Maverick players
Speaker 1: were driving to the basket and Draymond was kind of helpless,
Speaker 1: and a lot of times he's too far away to
Speaker 1: even dig and try to get in there and just
Speaker 1: reach and recover. And it just it took Draymond's defensive
Speaker 1: impact and moved it into his spot on the floor
Speaker 1: where it has less of an impact on what Golden
Speaker 1: State is trying to do defensively. So the best strategy
Speaker 1: I think for Dallas is to run five out Kleiba,
Speaker 1: primarily a lot less to White Powell, and then trust
Speaker 1: Luca to relentlessly hunt Stephen Jordan Pool. This is where
Speaker 1: a series another series we're not having. Gary Payton Jr.
Speaker 1: I think hurts, and a lot of excuse me, Gary
Speaker 1: Payton the second I think that hurts in a lot
Speaker 1: of different ways. Particularly for a guy like Jalen Brunson.
Speaker 1: You feel a lot more comfortable with a guy like
Speaker 1: Gary Payton Jr. On Jalen Brunson because he's so good
Speaker 1: at fighting through screens. It'll make it harder for Gary
Speaker 1: Payton to guard or two uh to uh to for
Speaker 1: Dallas to get Gary Payton off of Jalen Brunson. Because
Speaker 1: he can fight through, he's not a good option for Luca.
Speaker 1: He guarded Luca a little bit this year and Luca
Speaker 1: just took him right to the basket. He's too big
Speaker 1: for him, but he's a very valuable weapon for someone
Speaker 1: like on Sense. That's a significant loss. Now for Golden State,
Speaker 1: the strategy that I would have is I would do
Speaker 1: pretty much exactly what Phoenix did for the most part
Speaker 1: in their home games. Do what you can to to
Speaker 1: make Lucas score. Stay home on all of the shooters
Speaker 1: around the elsewhere on the floor. And if Luca scores
Speaker 1: forty five every night and he beats you on fifty
Speaker 1: three shooting, then great. But most likely if you force
Speaker 1: him into tough shots all night long, it'll he'll shoot
Speaker 1: a lower percentage and it will stagnate everyone else on
Speaker 1: the floor. That's your best bet is making Luca a score.
Speaker 1: I think that's Golden State's best chance on this series.
Speaker 1: So moving over to the other side, of the floor.
Speaker 1: Now we're talking warriors on offense. So Dallas does a
Speaker 1: ton of switching. They their normal pick and roll covers.
Speaker 1: We broke this down last night. They do kind of
Speaker 1: like a version of the drop where the big hedges
Speaker 1: up to the level of the screen and dissuades whatever
Speaker 1: is happening right after the handoff or right after the screen.
Speaker 1: But then we'll recover to the role man. But if
Speaker 1: the guard gets caught, then they'll audible to a switch.
Speaker 1: The guard will peel off of Step or peel off
Speaker 1: of Jordan Pool and just run down to the rollman
Speaker 1: and try to box him out of the lane. Right.
Speaker 1: That's we talked about that a lot last night. That's
Speaker 1: their typical pick and roll coverage. But everything else on
Speaker 1: the floor they're gonna switch. And that's where it's interesting
Speaker 1: because Golden State runs a lot of guard guard action,
Speaker 1: a lot of like pool screening for Steff or Pool
Speaker 1: and Steff both in a screening action with Clay or
Speaker 1: with Looney or whatever it is. Andrew Wiggins will you know,
Speaker 1: roll off of those kinds of things. That's their best
Speaker 1: opportunity to cause problems for Dallas, and their switching attack
Speaker 1: is multiple player actions off the ball. I believe I
Speaker 1: shared a clip of this on my Twitter feed as
Speaker 1: well as you find. But any three player action makes
Speaker 1: it a lot harder to switch because you're not just saying, hey,
Speaker 1: I'm getting your guy, you're getting my guy. Now, it's
Speaker 1: like which one of these two guys am I supposed
Speaker 1: to grab? Everyone's supposed to be communicating. It gets a
Speaker 1: lot more complicated. In the footage that I watched today,
Speaker 1: there were lots of examples of Golden State running those
Speaker 1: complicated actions, especially when Steph is involved, because when guys
Speaker 1: mess up, they want to mess up in the direction
Speaker 1: of steps. They want to have Steph uh, they want
Speaker 1: to have the guy the guy's error on the side
Speaker 1: of going towards Steph, and you'll see cutters get open
Speaker 1: and things along those lines on that front. So that
Speaker 1: Warriors running those complicated actions off the ball, that's the
Speaker 1: most important thing they can do to make Dallas pay
Speaker 1: in switching situations. If you get into an isolation contest
Speaker 1: with Luca don Chich and Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwoodie,
Speaker 1: you're probably gonna lose, especially since Steph hasn't been the
Speaker 1: same level of isolation player that he was, and you
Speaker 1: know even just last year. So the ideally you want
Speaker 1: to supplement that with as much transition opportunity as you
Speaker 1: can get, especially since you know Dallas plays at an
Speaker 1: extremely a slow pace. The more you can get out
Speaker 1: and transition the better. The more you can score in
Speaker 1: off ball situations the better, so that you're not stuck
Speaker 1: in there. Uh, it's not stuck in an isolation contest.
Speaker 1: When you do have to isolate, you have to make
Speaker 1: the slower footed man ricks guard. So Kleiba in particular,
Speaker 1: Luca don in particular, you gotta do everything you can
Speaker 1: to attack them off the dribble. Cleiba is actually a
Speaker 1: pretty good athlete for a big guy. He held his
Speaker 1: own a lot. Jordan Pool beat him to the basket
Speaker 1: a few times in the footage that I watched, but
Speaker 1: you know, he does a decent job of hanging. It's
Speaker 1: Luca in particular that I think guys like Steph and
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool can consistently beat to the basket. As I
Speaker 1: always tell you guys with switching defense is the best
Speaker 1: way to attack them is to not isolate for jump shots,
Speaker 1: but to isolate for rim pressure. Beat people to the basket.
Speaker 1: When you beat people to the basket, you force help defenders.
Speaker 1: When you force help defenders, then you can kick to
Speaker 1: people that are wide open. Then they either can shoot
Speaker 1: or they can attack a close out. That's a more
Speaker 1: fluid in motion offense than a stagnant your turn, my
Speaker 1: turn isolation type of deal. So when Dallas does those
Speaker 1: things and they get in those switching situations, it's very
Speaker 1: important for Jordan Pool and Steph to get as much
Speaker 1: droubal penetration as possible to keep things moving. The last
Speaker 1: real wrinkle with Golden State on offense is what Dallas
Speaker 1: is gonna do with Draymond. And you can just about
Speaker 1: guarantee that they're going to ignore Draymond, but every team does,
Speaker 1: and Golden State does a couple of different things to
Speaker 1: to attack that. Draymond typically will move to the top
Speaker 1: of the floor, and if you kick it out to him,
Speaker 1: he'll instead of shooting, he'll just quick like run over
Speaker 1: to the nearest guard do a dribble handoff, because again,
Speaker 1: if you set a good screen on a dribble handoff
Speaker 1: and you hit the guy, there's no help there because
Speaker 1: no one's guarding Draymond, right, So that's another way to
Speaker 1: get open looks. But even that I don't think is enough.
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be going to be very
Speaker 1: important for Draymond to look to score when he catches
Speaker 1: the ball at the top of the key when he's
Speaker 1: wide open. Barrel down the lane if you have to shoot.
Speaker 1: I would shoot the threes to save your legs, but
Speaker 1: barrel down the lane if you have to, and try
Speaker 1: to draw help there. But the big one is in
Speaker 1: short roll situations. Dallas did a lot of trapping of
Speaker 1: Steph and pick and roll. Big shock everyone does when
Speaker 1: they trap Steff and pick and roll and Draymon is
Speaker 1: rolling down the lane, it's so important for him to
Speaker 1: look to score the floater, the lay up, anything in
Speaker 1: the lane, because if you're a threat there, the defense
Speaker 1: will collapse on you. That's when he can kick to
Speaker 1: great shooters around the floor. If he doesn't look to
Speaker 1: score there, no one will collapse on him, and then
Speaker 1: you get caught in no man's land. That indecisiveness that
Speaker 1: Draymond occasionally has there, He's been pretty good about it
Speaker 1: of late, but that's going to be very important in
Speaker 1: this series for him to stay a threat. So as
Speaker 1: far as picking this series, I think that Dallas's shot
Speaker 1: quality in the half court is going to be better.
Speaker 1: I believe so because I think Luca is less solvable
Speaker 1: because of the fact that Steph is not as aggressive
Speaker 1: trying to score the basketball as he used to be,
Speaker 1: particularly in isolation situations. I feel as though Luca is
Speaker 1: going to like the Golden State does not have an
Speaker 1: answer for Luca and isolation situations. He's gonna get whatever
Speaker 1: he wants. And if you make him a score, it
Speaker 1: might work if he doesn't shoot well, but if he
Speaker 1: shoots well, you're just gonna lose. And then if you
Speaker 1: send help, he's just going to spray around the shooters
Speaker 1: all night long. Dallas is an extremely disciplined defense, and
Speaker 1: over the course of each of these last couple of
Speaker 1: series is they've got stronger defensively, especially in that Phoenix series.
Speaker 1: As you saw, they are going to learn to over
Speaker 1: the course of the series be in the right spots
Speaker 1: for a lot of the cutting, the actions and the
Speaker 1: cutting and the things that that Golden State does off
Speaker 1: the ball. So I am picking Dallas in six. I
Speaker 1: believe they will win close out this series at home
Speaker 1: in Game six. However, the biggest swing factor of this series.
Speaker 1: Golden State's biggest chance is the return of old Steph.
Speaker 1: Dallas is going to try to turn him into his
Speaker 1: score as well, particularly in on ball situations. If Steph
Speaker 1: is aggressive and looks to punish mismatches, particularly going to
Speaker 1: the rim, Golden State has a chance, especially with home
Speaker 1: court advantage not counting them out. But I believe that
Speaker 1: Dallas has more cards in the deck to target this
Speaker 1: version of Steph, who did not play well in the
Speaker 1: last round, offensively played amazingly at the end of games,
Speaker 1: was savvy, veteran, did all the right things to close
Speaker 1: the deal, which is why he's such a great player.
Speaker 1: But at this point in his career, he's going to
Speaker 1: be He's going to be asked to do more offensively
Speaker 1: as a score in this series, and if he doesn't,
Speaker 1: I don't think they can win. And so I'm picking
Speaker 1: Dallas in six. But Golden States chance is the step
Speaker 1: from last year making his sighting some you know, averaging
Speaker 1: around thirty points, shooting percentage true shooting percentage around. That's
Speaker 1: Golden State's best chance to get it done. All right,
Speaker 1: let's preview Boston Miami for a little bit. I think
Speaker 1: this is going to be an incredibly ugly series between
Speaker 1: two incredible defensive teams, But at the same time, I
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be very entertaining once again, just like
Speaker 1: in the Golden State Series. Like we talked about earlier,
Speaker 1: this series is there's not a whole lot to go
Speaker 1: off of. In the regular season, Boston went two in one,
Speaker 1: but one of the games was way back in November
Speaker 1: when like Dennis Shrewder was coming off the bench and
Speaker 1: shooting a bunch of shots and things like that. There
Speaker 1: was another Boston blowout win at home that Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: and Kyle Lowry both missed, so can't take too much
Speaker 1: from that one. But there was one game just before
Speaker 1: the end of the season where Miami went into Boston
Speaker 1: in one, and I watched that whole game again today
Speaker 1: and it went a lot like some of these Boston
Speaker 1: losses that they've had in the Milwaukee Bucks series. It
Speaker 1: was their offense that failed them over the course of
Speaker 1: the game. And as Boston's offense was failing them in
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, they only scored fifteen points in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter of this particular game. Miami fed off of
Speaker 1: that that that collapse from Boston, and Jimmy Butler made
Speaker 1: some big shots and Kyle Lowry made some big shots
Speaker 1: and ended up stealing that game. They did a bunch
Speaker 1: of interesting stuff on defense, will get to in a minute,
Speaker 1: but you know, it was a perfect example of the
Speaker 1: kind of thing that manifested against Milwaukee, a better, more
Speaker 1: talented team that loses its offensive identity from time to time,
Speaker 1: and it causing them to have issues on the defensive
Speaker 1: end to ended up costing them a game. So we're
Speaker 1: gonna start with Boston an offense. So Miami really switches everything,
Speaker 1: like really really switches everything they um, especially in pick
Speaker 1: and roll. They'll do They're They're just not They're not
Speaker 1: worried about putting Bam at a bio on any guard
Speaker 1: in any situation. They're not worried about the likes of
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, Max Rus or Kyle Lowry and their capability
Speaker 1: to box a person out on a mismatch, you know,
Speaker 1: in terms of offensive rebounding situations. You know, obviously they
Speaker 1: don't switch for no reason at all. So if Bam
Speaker 1: can hang out by the rim because the drible handoff
Speaker 1: isn't very close or a screen isn't set properly, then ah,
Speaker 1: he'll be around the rim. But they're willing to switch.
Speaker 1: The biggest difference between them and what Boston does because
Speaker 1: Boston also switches everything. Miami mixes in a lot of zone,
Speaker 1: and their zone is really well run. This isn't like
Speaker 1: l A Lakers, like we're all just kind of standing
Speaker 1: around in different spots on the floor, b s ing
Speaker 1: through the game kind of zone. This is a real disciplined,
Speaker 1: extended zone. It's it's it has like a matchup zone
Speaker 1: type of field where if you dribble the ball into
Speaker 1: the specific area of the zone, whoever's in that zone
Speaker 1: will apply ball pressure. They're trying to bait you into quick,
Speaker 1: long threes, and that actually ended up being what costs
Speaker 1: Boston in this particular fourth quarter that I'm talking about
Speaker 1: right before the end of the regular season. They ran
Speaker 1: zone for the most part to start the fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: and they persistently swung the ball around the perimeter and
Speaker 1: took bad early threes, and that specifically ended up being
Speaker 1: what caused the slide that led to the shift in
Speaker 1: momentum to Miami c a game. Boston actually had a
Speaker 1: lead late in the fourth quarter in that game, so
Speaker 1: if you have a Miami defense that's going to switch everything.
Speaker 1: Just like again, if you guys remember I wanted Milwaukee
Speaker 1: in Game seven to switch everything, they did not. They
Speaker 1: played dropped the entire game, especially thirty seven minutes of
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez when you honest was out there, he was
Speaker 1: in drop as well. They did not go to the
Speaker 1: strategy that was proven to stagnate Boston that we saw
Speaker 1: in the stats. We talked about that at length on
Speaker 1: the show. This Miami team absolutely will do that. They
Speaker 1: absolutely will put Boston in situations that will bait them
Speaker 1: into isolations, that will bait them into bad jump shots,
Speaker 1: and it will be imperative for Boston to stay disciplined.
Speaker 1: So we gotta look at two things here. How does
Speaker 1: Boston beat Miami's man and how does Boston beat Miami's zone?
Speaker 1: So in the in the man situation, like we've talked
Speaker 1: about so much on this show, it's about applying rim pressure.
Speaker 1: If you are in a man demand situation and they're
Speaker 1: switching screens so you're not getting easy stuff off of actions,
Speaker 1: then you have two options. You can score in isolation,
Speaker 1: or you can collapse the defense and help side and
Speaker 1: kick two players. On the week side of the floor
Speaker 1: that can then further attack the close out, further compromise
Speaker 1: the defense. That's how you get quality shots and most importantly,
Speaker 1: keep all of your players in rhythm rather than stagnant.
Speaker 1: And so the Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, Marcus Smart, even
Speaker 1: Derek White, all of those guys are going to have
Speaker 1: to be very intentional about getting into the seams of
Speaker 1: that man to man defense by beating people off the dribble,
Speaker 1: which is gonna be difficult to do. Miami is a
Speaker 1: very disciplined defense. All of their players are in great shape.
Speaker 1: They have a lot of guys that are strong with
Speaker 1: low centers of gravity that are tough to you know,
Speaker 1: punch gaps on to get a little bit of separation
Speaker 1: and break through their shoulder and get get get leverage
Speaker 1: to get downhill. It's going to be difficult to do.
Speaker 1: But as in the moments of the series, that they
Speaker 1: do that they have more often of talent and they
Speaker 1: will have a lot of success specifically against the zone.
Speaker 1: And you saw this a lot in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: of that game that I'm referencing, when they swung the
Speaker 1: ball around the perimeter and took threes they didn't score
Speaker 1: when they made a concerted effort to get the ball
Speaker 1: into the paint. That's when they were able to score. Now,
Speaker 1: with the zone, you can do it off the dribble.
Speaker 1: And I'm a big believer, you know, even with the
Speaker 1: high school kids that I coach, like, drive the zone.
Speaker 1: Drive the zone. A lot of times we will run
Speaker 1: our man offense against the zone just to try to
Speaker 1: get our guys in the headspace of driving, because zones
Speaker 1: are designed to try to dissuade you from playing normal basketball.
Speaker 1: But normal basketball works against zones, and so most like
Speaker 1: you can do it driving, but also through passing guys
Speaker 1: flashing to the high post, catching and turning and making reads.
Speaker 1: In that fourth quarter, Jayson Tatum in particular, when he
Speaker 1: would catch the ball around the free throw line and
Speaker 1: turn and make reads, the defense would collapse on and
Speaker 1: Bama Baio would have to come up from the basket,
Speaker 1: and that's when things would open up along the back
Speaker 1: line for layups and dunks and things along those lines.
Speaker 1: So again, against both Miami's switching man and against Miami zone,
Speaker 1: it's going to be incredibly important for Boston to apply
Speaker 1: rim pressure and to get into the paint. I expect
Speaker 1: Boston because of what they've shown us in this playoff run.
Speaker 1: I expect them to go through extended stretches in this
Speaker 1: series where they do not perform well offensively, and I
Speaker 1: think Miami will beat them in those settings. It's one
Speaker 1: of the biggest reasons I'm gonna go into I'm picking
Speaker 1: Boston and six and I'll explain why. But one of
Speaker 1: the biggest reasons why I expect Miami to uh to
Speaker 1: have wins in this series is extended offensive slumps from Boston.
Speaker 1: So moving over to Miami and offense, I expect him
Speaker 1: to start Al Horford on bam Um, possibly Robert Williams
Speaker 1: if he comes back. But you know, as you're seeing,
Speaker 1: that's the same thing as the Dwight Powell problem. Even
Speaker 1: with everything that Robert Williams brings defensively, even with everything
Speaker 1: that he brings as a vertical spacing threat, vertical spacing
Speaker 1: is just not the same as five out spacing. It's
Speaker 1: just not. And so I would imagine Boston at some
Speaker 1: point is gonna have to think hard about shelving Robert
Speaker 1: Williams in this series as well or using him sparingly,
Speaker 1: especially with how big the likes of Grant Williams and
Speaker 1: Al Horford are playing, so if they if they don't
Speaker 1: play Robert Williams, Al Horford should start on BAM. And
Speaker 1: my guess is, you know, we've talked about this with
Speaker 1: Miami before. They run a lot of similar stuff to
Speaker 1: what Denver runs. It's very Yoki esque, like BAM out
Speaker 1: of the high post at both elbows, running a ton
Speaker 1: of dribble handoffs, a ton of ball screens, and looking
Speaker 1: to score at like aggressively as a slasher out of
Speaker 1: the high post, like fake dribble handoffs, things that ripped throughs,
Speaker 1: things along those lines, right, So it's I would imagine
Speaker 1: Boston will try at at first to have Horford stay
Speaker 1: home on BAM and try to basically make the Boston
Speaker 1: guards chase everybody over the top. But in this game
Speaker 1: that I'm referencing right before, at the end of the
Speaker 1: regular season, Miami was getting fantastic looks on those dribble
Speaker 1: handoffs because the guys like Jalen Brown, the guys like
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart, they were getting caught on BAM on those
Speaker 1: handoffs and on those screens. So I think eventually they're
Speaker 1: gonna need to start switching those and that I think
Speaker 1: will be Boston's best chance to stagnate Miami. The biggest
Speaker 1: issue here is Miami does not have a ton of
Speaker 1: offensive creation in an isolation situation. Bam is good, not
Speaker 1: great as a score. You know all of these They've
Speaker 1: got a lot of guys that come come off a
Speaker 1: green screens and shoot, like Dave Vinson can come off
Speaker 1: with screens and shoot, Tyler Harrow, Duncan Robinson, you know,
Speaker 1: Max s Trus, Kyle Lowry. All of those guys are
Speaker 1: great at coming off of screens and shooting, but they're
Speaker 1: not guys that are gonna stare you in the eyes
Speaker 1: and create shots in isolation situations. So the more switching
Speaker 1: Boston does, the more it forces Miami to do that
Speaker 1: kind of thing, the better success they'll They'll have. The
Speaker 1: one guy on the roster that's gonna have their best
Speaker 1: chance at attacking mismatches is going to be Jimmy Butler. Now,
Speaker 1: they put Jalen Brown on Jimmy Butler in this particular
Speaker 1: game that I watched, although I expect it to be
Speaker 1: a lot more Jason Tatum in this series. But one
Speaker 1: of the things that I noticed is they were able
Speaker 1: to get Jimmy Butler going downhill in situations where Boston
Speaker 1: was not switching. Again, teams will try to not switch,
Speaker 1: especially during the regular season, because it's less taxing and
Speaker 1: rebounding situations. You don't watch your guards for eight two
Speaker 1: games banging with big guys from the other team. It's
Speaker 1: just two taxing. They get hurt, right, So you'll see
Speaker 1: teams try to manufacture possessions in the regular season where
Speaker 1: they switch less. But Boston I think needs to lean
Speaker 1: heavily into that so that Jimmy Butler doesn't have those
Speaker 1: easy downhill opportunities. Make Jimmy Butler work hard to get
Speaker 1: onto a Derek White or to get on you know,
Speaker 1: to uh Daniel Tyson, Grant Williams, and make him try
Speaker 1: to beat those guys off the dribble. And trust your
Speaker 1: help because you do have much better perimeter defenders than
Speaker 1: anybody that Miami has played in this series. Bottom line,
Speaker 1: and one last note, BAM's perimeter shooting consistently has been
Speaker 1: an issue in playoffs settings. Obviously, Miami's had one of
Speaker 1: the easier pathways to this point in this playoff runs,
Speaker 1: so they haven't really been forced to score in that
Speaker 1: type of setting. Um, But I think Bam and his
Speaker 1: ability to turn and face and shoot at fifteen feet
Speaker 1: is gonna be so important to keep Al Horford honest
Speaker 1: so that he has to be up on him, so
Speaker 1: that there's openings on the backside for cutters, factor cuts,
Speaker 1: slashing things along those lines. So a lot of pressure
Speaker 1: on Bameda knockdown shots. I expect Miami to have a
Speaker 1: really hard time scoring against this Boston defense. You saw
Speaker 1: how hard of a time Brooklyn had, You saw how
Speaker 1: hard of a time Milwaukee had, and they had significantly
Speaker 1: better primary offensive options. We did this whole thing last
Speaker 1: night when we were talking about the Phoenix Suns and
Speaker 1: Chris Paul and Devin Booker and about how in these
Speaker 1: settings when defense has really turned up the intensity, there's
Speaker 1: just only a handful of guys that can truly consistently
Speaker 1: breakdown a defense. Jimmy's had an incredibly playoff, an incredible
Speaker 1: playoff run so far, but this is going to be
Speaker 1: a significantly tougher match up for him than anything he's
Speaker 1: faced to this point, and it's going to be absolutely
Speaker 1: vitally important for him to play like an absolute super
Speaker 1: duper star. He's capable of it. But I watched Johannae
Speaker 1: Syntenna Kumbo fall apart in his efficiency last round amazing
Speaker 1: counting stats. Janice was amazing. We don't have to get
Speaker 1: into that again. But he dropped from a sixty three
Speaker 1: percent true shooting in the regular season to a fifty
Speaker 1: two percent true shooting in this series, which is horrible
Speaker 1: by Janice's standards. K D dropped from a sixty percent
Speaker 1: true shooting in the regular season to fifty three in
Speaker 1: that series against Miami. Jimmy Butler is not better than Janice.
Speaker 1: He's not better than k D. He will also experience
Speaker 1: a significant decline in this series. He will struggle mightily,
Speaker 1: and that's why I'm picking Boston. As much as Boston
Speaker 1: is going to go through extensive stretches of offensive struggles
Speaker 1: that will cause them, in my opinion, to lose basketball games,
Speaker 1: I think Miami will have much worse versions of that
Speaker 1: specific problem. My guests on how this series will progress
Speaker 1: is Boston will lose Game one a lot because of fatigue.
Speaker 1: Miami is coming off a significantly more rest. It's a
Speaker 1: quick turnaround. Boston in general has shown a tendency in
Speaker 1: this playoff run particularly in the Milwaukee series, to let
Speaker 1: up when they have a big win. Game seven was
Speaker 1: the exception. So I expect some fatigue and a little
Speaker 1: bit of letdown and game one. Then I think Boston
Speaker 1: will steal Game two, that I think the win Game
Speaker 1: three and four, then they'll lose Game five in Miami,
Speaker 1: and then I think they'll win Game six. I'm picking
Speaker 1: Boston and six. But this one's gonna be a super
Speaker 1: interesting defensive slug fest. And if I was a betting man,
Speaker 1: I would If I were you guys and you're spending
Speaker 1: some time on FanDuel, I would hit the under on
Speaker 1: every single one of these games are gonna be. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be an old fashioned Eastern Conference defensive slugfest. The
Speaker 1: volume