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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. All right, let's preview

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Speaker 1: the conference finals series for a little bit. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: start in the Western Conference, which I think is the

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Speaker 1: more interesting of the two series. As is always the

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Speaker 1: case with these NBA playoff matchups, you try your best

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Speaker 1: to find evidence in the regular season, and then you

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Speaker 1: look back and everyone sat out all the games. That's

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Speaker 1: that's typically how this kind of thing goes. Although we

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Speaker 1: did actually have a couple of decent matchups to look

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Speaker 1: at for that Boston Miami series, but Dallas and Golden

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Speaker 1: State played four times this year. Dallas was three one

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Speaker 1: stars missed every single game. The closest thing to the

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Speaker 1: full strength game was on January five in Dallas. It

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Speaker 1: was the only time Lucas, Steph, and Draymond all played,

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Speaker 1: but obviously Clay Thompson was out of the picture. Dallas

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Speaker 1: at the time was starting Kliba and Powell, which was

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Speaker 1: a unique thing, and Reggie Bullock was was coming off

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Speaker 1: of the bench. Golden State at that point still had

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Speaker 1: Gary Payton too, is expected to be out for this series.

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Speaker 1: They're playing a lot of Juan Tuscano, Anderson and Damian Lee.

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Speaker 1: So again, everything in terms of the regular season matchups

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Speaker 1: has to be taken with a certain amount of a

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Speaker 1: grain assault just because of the fact that these teams

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Speaker 1: are completely different versions of theirselves at this point. Even

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Speaker 1: just looking a few months ago, so much changes. The

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Speaker 1: playoffs really causes your team to round into the best

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Speaker 1: version of itself. It's purest identity. In their individual matchups.

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Speaker 1: This year, Steph average twenty points per game on thirty

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Speaker 1: nine percent from the field, percent from three, and six

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Speaker 1: percent from the free throw line. Not great. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get into a little bit about I think Steph is

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Speaker 1: arguably the biggest swing factor of this series. I'll we'll

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Speaker 1: get into that a little bit later, Luca was awesome,

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Speaker 1: as I expected, um he is. There's nobody on Golden

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Speaker 1: State's roster that can realistically guard Luca. You know, maybe

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Speaker 1: Draymond it. You really need to keep Draymond and help

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Speaker 1: situations right, So you're not exactly expecting uh Luca to

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Speaker 1: struggle too much to score individually. Well, he averaged thirty

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Speaker 1: two points per game on forty percent from the field,

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Speaker 1: thirty eight percent from three percent from the line, So

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Speaker 1: almost a uh type of mark there from Luca. Um.

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Speaker 1: So again, that's that's all we have in terms of

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Speaker 1: regular season evidence. But we're gonna do our best to

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Speaker 1: try to sift through that and get into some of

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Speaker 1: the details of the series. So you guys know how

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Speaker 1: I like to do it. I like to start on

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Speaker 1: one side of the ball. We're gonna start with Dallas

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Speaker 1: on offense. And again, like I mentioned, nobody can guard Luca.

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Speaker 1: The difference between the Phoenix matchup was, you know, there

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Speaker 1: Luca didn't have trouble finding guys to attack within Phoenix's scheme,

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Speaker 1: but there were guys on the floor that were difficult

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Speaker 1: to attack, like Dean Drayton was forcing Luca into some

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Speaker 1: pretty tough followay jump shots. Now, he's one of the

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Speaker 1: top you know, three or four players in the world,

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Speaker 1: so he's gonna make them a lot of the time.

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Speaker 1: But that's in terms of a defense. If you can

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Speaker 1: force Luca to take step backs or falloways, that's about

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Speaker 1: is the best you can do. And DeAndre Ayton did

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Speaker 1: a really nice job of that. And then Michael Bridges

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Speaker 1: did an amazing job on Luca, And for the most

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Speaker 1: part in the series, Luca did everything he could to

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Speaker 1: avoid trying to shoot against him, specifically everyone else in

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Speaker 1: that roster though he could go at but the problem

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Speaker 1: was is like whether he's calling for screens or whatever,

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Speaker 1: Mchaal would try to fight through the screen, you know,

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Speaker 1: or Luca would be forced to settle for attacking someone

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Speaker 1: like DeAndre Ayton. And this Golden State matchup, they're gonna

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Speaker 1: probably start Andrew Wiggins on and we saw that in

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Speaker 1: the regular season matchups that they had. He has no

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Speaker 1: problem scoring on Andrew Wiggins. He's not gonna have any

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Speaker 1: problem scoring on anybody on the roster. Again, Draymond is

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Speaker 1: arguably one of the ideal physical profiles for a player

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Speaker 1: to put on Luca. Really low center of gravity, so

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Speaker 1: he's hard to bump off his spots, very strong, super

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Speaker 1: long wingspan, quick enough to stay with Luca, and smart enough. Right,

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Speaker 1: So in theory, that's smart. Here's the issue. You need

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Speaker 1: Draymond green and help. That's where he's most valuable to

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Speaker 1: this specific Golden State offense. And if you if Dallas

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Speaker 1: puts you in a predicament where you have to put

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Speaker 1: Draymond on Luca for the whole series, You're gonna get

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Speaker 1: picked apart everywhere else on the floor. And most importantly,

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Speaker 1: if Luca happens to get past Draymond, now your back

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Speaker 1: line defense is significantly worse. So that makes it a

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Speaker 1: lot tougher, and so that that will be one of

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Speaker 1: the dynamics of the series is how is how is

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Speaker 1: Golden State going to be able to use Draymond? Are

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Speaker 1: they gonna have to keep him on Luca? Are they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to keep him in help? My guesses

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Speaker 1: is that they'll keep him in help and just try

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Speaker 1: to sacrifice whatever they get in terms of Luca isolations. Now,

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Speaker 1: the the the issue here specifically for Golden State is

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Speaker 1: obviously matchup attacking takes place all over in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: but Luca in particular, in my opinion, is the best

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Speaker 1: at it, at least in this field. Lebron typically is

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Speaker 1: the best at this specific skill, but Luca is the

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Speaker 1: best at persistently targeting your worst defenders every time down

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Speaker 1: the floor. Now, Golden State doesn't have any bad defensive players,

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Speaker 1: but they do have small defensive players, and I expect

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Speaker 1: Luca to relentlessly hunt Steph Curry in Jordan Pool every

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Speaker 1: time down the floor. He's gonna try to get them

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Speaker 1: involved in stuff, and Golden State's gonna have a big

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Speaker 1: challenge in in in and attempting to keep those two

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Speaker 1: away from Luca. We talked about this a little bit

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Speaker 1: in last night's show, but the idea of pre switching

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Speaker 1: or scramming out of switches, essentially doing gimmicky stuff to

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Speaker 1: try to keep Step out of those situations. But Luca

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Speaker 1: is known to be able to capitalize on those little

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Speaker 1: brief windows that open up as you try to pre

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Speaker 1: switch or something like that. So Steph and Jordan Pool

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Speaker 1: are gonna have a lot on their plate to try

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Speaker 1: to hold their own in isolation matchups against Luca. The other, uh,

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Speaker 1: the other big thing that I expect to become a

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Speaker 1: swing factor in this series is the Kleiba Powell dynamic.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about this a lot with Dallas, but when

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Speaker 1: Dallas plays Cleba, there a true five out team, which

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Speaker 1: is when they have the most space. That's when Lucas

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Speaker 1: at his best, That's when Jalen Brunson's at his best.

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Speaker 1: That's when Spencer din what he's at his best. Right

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Speaker 1: Dwight Powell, it's more of a four out one in thing.

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Speaker 1: They're running a lot of pick and roll. He's rolling

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Speaker 1: to the rim the space and gets significantly worse. The

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Speaker 1: problem with running Powell in particular is Draymond Green is

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Speaker 1: one of the best pick and roll big defenders that

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Speaker 1: we have in this entire league, arguably the best. And

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Speaker 1: if you allow Draymond to operate in normal pick and

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Speaker 1: roll defense all series long, you're effectively shaving points. You're

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Speaker 1: You're you're playing directly into Golden State's biggest advantage. I

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Speaker 1: shared some clips of this that you'll be able to

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Speaker 1: see on my twitter feed if you guys look, just

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Speaker 1: go to my Twitter feed and click on media and

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Speaker 1: scroll down and you'll see some clips that are demonstrating

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Speaker 1: what I'm talking about. In the Possessions where Kliba is

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Speaker 1: on the floor instead of Powell, Draymond is on Cliba

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Speaker 1: and he can't help, or if he does, he's leaving

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Speaker 1: Cleiba open. There were several examples where Dallas Maverick players

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Speaker 1: were driving to the basket and Draymond was kind of helpless,

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Speaker 1: and a lot of times he's too far away to

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Speaker 1: even dig and try to get in there and just

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Speaker 1: reach and recover. And it just it took Draymond's defensive

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Speaker 1: impact and moved it into his spot on the floor

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Speaker 1: where it has less of an impact on what Golden

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Speaker 1: State is trying to do defensively. So the best strategy

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Speaker 1: I think for Dallas is to run five out Kleiba,

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Speaker 1: primarily a lot less to White Powell, and then trust

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Speaker 1: Luca to relentlessly hunt Stephen Jordan Pool. This is where

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Speaker 1: a series another series we're not having. Gary Payton Jr.

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Speaker 1: I think hurts, and a lot of excuse me, Gary

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Speaker 1: Payton the second I think that hurts in a lot

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Speaker 1: of different ways. Particularly for a guy like Jalen Brunson.

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Speaker 1: You feel a lot more comfortable with a guy like

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Speaker 1: Gary Payton Jr. On Jalen Brunson because he's so good

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Speaker 1: at fighting through screens. It'll make it harder for Gary

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Speaker 1: Payton to guard or two uh to uh to for

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Speaker 1: Dallas to get Gary Payton off of Jalen Brunson. Because

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Speaker 1: he can fight through, he's not a good option for Luca.

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Speaker 1: He guarded Luca a little bit this year and Luca

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Speaker 1: just took him right to the basket. He's too big

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Speaker 1: for him, but he's a very valuable weapon for someone

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Speaker 1: like on Sense. That's a significant loss. Now for Golden State,

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Speaker 1: the strategy that I would have is I would do

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Speaker 1: pretty much exactly what Phoenix did for the most part

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Speaker 1: in their home games. Do what you can to to

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Speaker 1: make Lucas score. Stay home on all of the shooters

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Speaker 1: around the elsewhere on the floor. And if Luca scores

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Speaker 1: forty five every night and he beats you on fifty

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Speaker 1: three shooting, then great. But most likely if you force

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Speaker 1: him into tough shots all night long, it'll he'll shoot

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Speaker 1: a lower percentage and it will stagnate everyone else on

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Speaker 1: the floor. That's your best bet is making Luca a score.

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Speaker 1: I think that's Golden State's best chance on this series.

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Speaker 1: So moving over to the other side, of the floor.

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Speaker 1: Now we're talking warriors on offense. So Dallas does a

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Speaker 1: ton of switching. They their normal pick and roll covers.

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Speaker 1: We broke this down last night. They do kind of

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Speaker 1: like a version of the drop where the big hedges

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Speaker 1: up to the level of the screen and dissuades whatever

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Speaker 1: is happening right after the handoff or right after the screen.

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Speaker 1: But then we'll recover to the role man. But if

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Speaker 1: the guard gets caught, then they'll audible to a switch.

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Speaker 1: The guard will peel off of Step or peel off

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Speaker 1: of Jordan Pool and just run down to the rollman

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Speaker 1: and try to box him out of the lane. Right.

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Speaker 1: That's we talked about that a lot last night. That's

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Speaker 1: their typical pick and roll coverage. But everything else on

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Speaker 1: the floor they're gonna switch. And that's where it's interesting

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Speaker 1: because Golden State runs a lot of guard guard action,

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Speaker 1: a lot of like pool screening for Steff or Pool

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Speaker 1: and Steff both in a screening action with Clay or

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Speaker 1: with Looney or whatever it is. Andrew Wiggins will you know,

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Speaker 1: roll off of those kinds of things. That's their best

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Speaker 1: opportunity to cause problems for Dallas, and their switching attack

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Speaker 1: is multiple player actions off the ball. I believe I

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Speaker 1: shared a clip of this on my Twitter feed as

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Speaker 1: well as you find. But any three player action makes

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Speaker 1: it a lot harder to switch because you're not just saying, hey,

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Speaker 1: I'm getting your guy, you're getting my guy. Now, it's

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Speaker 1: like which one of these two guys am I supposed

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Speaker 1: to grab? Everyone's supposed to be communicating. It gets a

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Speaker 1: lot more complicated. In the footage that I watched today,

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Speaker 1: there were lots of examples of Golden State running those

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Speaker 1: complicated actions, especially when Steph is involved, because when guys

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Speaker 1: mess up, they want to mess up in the direction

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Speaker 1: of steps. They want to have Steph uh, they want

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Speaker 1: to have the guy the guy's error on the side

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Speaker 1: of going towards Steph, and you'll see cutters get open

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Speaker 1: and things along those lines on that front. So that

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Speaker 1: Warriors running those complicated actions off the ball, that's the

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Speaker 1: most important thing they can do to make Dallas pay

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Speaker 1: in switching situations. If you get into an isolation contest

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Speaker 1: with Luca don Chich and Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwoodie,

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Speaker 1: you're probably gonna lose, especially since Steph hasn't been the

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Speaker 1: same level of isolation player that he was, and you

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Speaker 1: know even just last year. So the ideally you want

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Speaker 1: to supplement that with as much transition opportunity as you

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Speaker 1: can get, especially since you know Dallas plays at an

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Speaker 1: extremely a slow pace. The more you can get out

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Speaker 1: and transition the better. The more you can score in

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Speaker 1: off ball situations the better, so that you're not stuck

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Speaker 1: in there. Uh, it's not stuck in an isolation contest.

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Speaker 1: When you do have to isolate, you have to make

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Speaker 1: the slower footed man ricks guard. So Kleiba in particular,

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Speaker 1: Luca don in particular, you gotta do everything you can

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Speaker 1: to attack them off the dribble. Cleiba is actually a

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Speaker 1: pretty good athlete for a big guy. He held his

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Speaker 1: own a lot. Jordan Pool beat him to the basket

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Speaker 1: a few times in the footage that I watched, but

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Speaker 1: you know, he does a decent job of hanging. It's

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Speaker 1: Luca in particular that I think guys like Steph and

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Speaker 1: Jordan Pool can consistently beat to the basket. As I

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Speaker 1: always tell you guys with switching defense is the best

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Speaker 1: way to attack them is to not isolate for jump shots,

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Speaker 1: but to isolate for rim pressure. Beat people to the basket.

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Speaker 1: When you beat people to the basket, you force help defenders.

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Speaker 1: When you force help defenders, then you can kick to

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Speaker 1: people that are wide open. Then they either can shoot

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Speaker 1: or they can attack a close out. That's a more

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Speaker 1: fluid in motion offense than a stagnant your turn, my

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Speaker 1: turn isolation type of deal. So when Dallas does those

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Speaker 1: things and they get in those switching situations, it's very

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Speaker 1: important for Jordan Pool and Steph to get as much

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Speaker 1: droubal penetration as possible to keep things moving. The last

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Speaker 1: real wrinkle with Golden State on offense is what Dallas

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Speaker 1: is gonna do with Draymond. And you can just about

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Speaker 1: guarantee that they're going to ignore Draymond, but every team does,

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Speaker 1: and Golden State does a couple of different things to

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Speaker 1: to attack that. Draymond typically will move to the top

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Speaker 1: of the floor, and if you kick it out to him,

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Speaker 1: he'll instead of shooting, he'll just quick like run over

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Speaker 1: to the nearest guard do a dribble handoff, because again,

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Speaker 1: if you set a good screen on a dribble handoff

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Speaker 1: and you hit the guy, there's no help there because

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Speaker 1: no one's guarding Draymond, right, So that's another way to

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Speaker 1: get open looks. But even that I don't think is enough.

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be going to be very

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Speaker 1: important for Draymond to look to score when he catches

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Speaker 1: the ball at the top of the key when he's

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Speaker 1: wide open. Barrel down the lane if you have to shoot.

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Speaker 1: I would shoot the threes to save your legs, but

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Speaker 1: barrel down the lane if you have to, and try

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Speaker 1: to draw help there. But the big one is in

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Speaker 1: short roll situations. Dallas did a lot of trapping of

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Speaker 1: Steph and pick and roll. Big shock everyone does when

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Speaker 1: they trap Steff and pick and roll and Draymon is

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Speaker 1: rolling down the lane, it's so important for him to

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Speaker 1: look to score the floater, the lay up, anything in

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Speaker 1: the lane, because if you're a threat there, the defense

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Speaker 1: will collapse on you. That's when he can kick to

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Speaker 1: great shooters around the floor. If he doesn't look to

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Speaker 1: score there, no one will collapse on him, and then

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Speaker 1: you get caught in no man's land. That indecisiveness that

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Speaker 1: Draymond occasionally has there, He's been pretty good about it

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Speaker 1: of late, but that's going to be very important in

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Speaker 1: this series for him to stay a threat. So as

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Speaker 1: far as picking this series, I think that Dallas's shot

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Speaker 1: quality in the half court is going to be better.

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Speaker 1: I believe so because I think Luca is less solvable

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Speaker 1: because of the fact that Steph is not as aggressive

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Speaker 1: trying to score the basketball as he used to be,

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Speaker 1: particularly in isolation situations. I feel as though Luca is

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Speaker 1: going to like the Golden State does not have an

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Speaker 1: answer for Luca and isolation situations. He's gonna get whatever

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Speaker 1: he wants. And if you make him a score, it

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Speaker 1: might work if he doesn't shoot well, but if he

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Speaker 1: shoots well, you're just gonna lose. And then if you

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Speaker 1: send help, he's just going to spray around the shooters

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Speaker 1: all night long. Dallas is an extremely disciplined defense, and

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Speaker 1: over the course of each of these last couple of

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Speaker 1: series is they've got stronger defensively, especially in that Phoenix series.

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Speaker 1: As you saw, they are going to learn to over

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Speaker 1: the course of the series be in the right spots

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Speaker 1: for a lot of the cutting, the actions and the

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Speaker 1: cutting and the things that that Golden State does off

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Speaker 1: the ball. So I am picking Dallas in six. I

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Speaker 1: believe they will win close out this series at home

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Speaker 1: in Game six. However, the biggest swing factor of this series.

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Speaker 1: Golden State's biggest chance is the return of old Steph.

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Speaker 1: Dallas is going to try to turn him into his

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Speaker 1: score as well, particularly in on ball situations. If Steph

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Speaker 1: is aggressive and looks to punish mismatches, particularly going to

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Speaker 1: the rim, Golden State has a chance, especially with home

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Speaker 1: court advantage not counting them out. But I believe that

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Speaker 1: Dallas has more cards in the deck to target this

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Speaker 1: version of Steph, who did not play well in the

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Speaker 1: last round, offensively played amazingly at the end of games,

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Speaker 1: was savvy, veteran, did all the right things to close

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Speaker 1: the deal, which is why he's such a great player.

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Speaker 1: But at this point in his career, he's going to

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Speaker 1: be He's going to be asked to do more offensively

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Speaker 1: as a score in this series, and if he doesn't,

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Speaker 1: I don't think they can win. And so I'm picking

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Speaker 1: Dallas in six. But Golden States chance is the step

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Speaker 1: from last year making his sighting some you know, averaging

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Speaker 1: around thirty points, shooting percentage true shooting percentage around. That's

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Speaker 1: Golden State's best chance to get it done. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's preview Boston Miami for a little bit. I think

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Speaker 1: this is going to be an incredibly ugly series between

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Speaker 1: two incredible defensive teams, But at the same time, I

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Speaker 1: think it's gonna be very entertaining once again, just like

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Speaker 1: in the Golden State Series. Like we talked about earlier,

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Speaker 1: this series is there's not a whole lot to go

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Speaker 1: off of. In the regular season, Boston went two in one,

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Speaker 1: but one of the games was way back in November

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Speaker 1: when like Dennis Shrewder was coming off the bench and

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Speaker 1: shooting a bunch of shots and things like that. There

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Speaker 1: was another Boston blowout win at home that Jimmy Butler

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Speaker 1: and Kyle Lowry both missed, so can't take too much

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Speaker 1: from that one. But there was one game just before

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Speaker 1: the end of the season where Miami went into Boston

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Speaker 1: in one, and I watched that whole game again today

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Speaker 1: and it went a lot like some of these Boston

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Speaker 1: losses that they've had in the Milwaukee Bucks series. It

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Speaker 1: was their offense that failed them over the course of

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Speaker 1: the game. And as Boston's offense was failing them in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter, they only scored fifteen points in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter of this particular game. Miami fed off of

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Speaker 1: that that that collapse from Boston, and Jimmy Butler made

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Speaker 1: some big shots and Kyle Lowry made some big shots

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Speaker 1: and ended up stealing that game. They did a bunch

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Speaker 1: of interesting stuff on defense, will get to in a minute,

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Speaker 1: but you know, it was a perfect example of the

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Speaker 1: kind of thing that manifested against Milwaukee, a better, more

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Speaker 1: talented team that loses its offensive identity from time to time,

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Speaker 1: and it causing them to have issues on the defensive

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Speaker 1: end to ended up costing them a game. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna start with Boston an offense. So Miami really switches everything,

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Speaker 1: like really really switches everything they um, especially in pick

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Speaker 1: and roll. They'll do They're They're just not They're not

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Speaker 1: worried about putting Bam at a bio on any guard

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Speaker 1: in any situation. They're not worried about the likes of

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Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, Max Rus or Kyle Lowry and their capability

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Speaker 1: to box a person out on a mismatch, you know,

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Speaker 1: in terms of offensive rebounding situations. You know, obviously they

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Speaker 1: don't switch for no reason at all. So if Bam

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Speaker 1: can hang out by the rim because the drible handoff

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Speaker 1: isn't very close or a screen isn't set properly, then ah,

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Speaker 1: he'll be around the rim. But they're willing to switch.

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Speaker 1: The biggest difference between them and what Boston does because

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Speaker 1: Boston also switches everything. Miami mixes in a lot of zone,

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Speaker 1: and their zone is really well run. This isn't like

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Speaker 1: l A Lakers, like we're all just kind of standing

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Speaker 1: around in different spots on the floor, b s ing

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Speaker 1: through the game kind of zone. This is a real disciplined,

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Speaker 1: extended zone. It's it's it has like a matchup zone

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Speaker 1: type of field where if you dribble the ball into

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Speaker 1: the specific area of the zone, whoever's in that zone

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Speaker 1: will apply ball pressure. They're trying to bait you into quick,

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Speaker 1: long threes, and that actually ended up being what costs

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Speaker 1: Boston in this particular fourth quarter that I'm talking about

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Speaker 1: right before the end of the regular season. They ran

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Speaker 1: zone for the most part to start the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 1: and they persistently swung the ball around the perimeter and

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Speaker 1: took bad early threes, and that specifically ended up being

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Speaker 1: what caused the slide that led to the shift in

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Speaker 1: momentum to Miami c a game. Boston actually had a

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Speaker 1: lead late in the fourth quarter in that game, so

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Speaker 1: if you have a Miami defense that's going to switch everything.

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Speaker 1: Just like again, if you guys remember I wanted Milwaukee

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Speaker 1: in Game seven to switch everything, they did not. They

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Speaker 1: played dropped the entire game, especially thirty seven minutes of

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Speaker 1: Brook Lopez when you honest was out there, he was

408
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 1: in drop as well. They did not go to the

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Speaker 1: strategy that was proven to stagnate Boston that we saw

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Speaker 1: in the stats. We talked about that at length on

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Speaker 1: the show. This Miami team absolutely will do that. They

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Speaker 1: absolutely will put Boston in situations that will bait them

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Speaker 1: into isolations, that will bait them into bad jump shots,

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Speaker 1: and it will be imperative for Boston to stay disciplined.

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Speaker 1: So we gotta look at two things here. How does

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Speaker 1: Boston beat Miami's man and how does Boston beat Miami's zone?

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Speaker 1: So in the in the man situation, like we've talked

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Speaker 1: about so much on this show, it's about applying rim pressure.

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Speaker 1: If you are in a man demand situation and they're

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Speaker 1: switching screens so you're not getting easy stuff off of actions,

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Speaker 1: then you have two options. You can score in isolation,

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Speaker 1: or you can collapse the defense and help side and

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00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 1: kick two players. On the week side of the floor

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Speaker 1: that can then further attack the close out, further compromise

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Speaker 1: the defense. That's how you get quality shots and most importantly,

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Speaker 1: keep all of your players in rhythm rather than stagnant.

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Speaker 1: And so the Jayson Tatum, Jalen Brown, Marcus Smart, even

428
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,320
Speaker 1: Derek White, all of those guys are going to have

429
00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: to be very intentional about getting into the seams of

430
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 1: that man to man defense by beating people off the dribble,

431
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 1: which is gonna be difficult to do. Miami is a

432
00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,760
Speaker 1: very disciplined defense. All of their players are in great shape.

433
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 1: They have a lot of guys that are strong with

434
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 1: low centers of gravity that are tough to you know,

435
00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: punch gaps on to get a little bit of separation

436
00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 1: and break through their shoulder and get get get leverage

437
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 1: to get downhill. It's going to be difficult to do.

438
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,120
Speaker 1: But as in the moments of the series, that they

439
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,719
Speaker 1: do that they have more often of talent and they

440
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 1: will have a lot of success specifically against the zone.

441
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: And you saw this a lot in the fourth quarter

442
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,440
Speaker 1: of that game that I'm referencing, when they swung the

443
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: ball around the perimeter and took threes they didn't score

444
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,600
Speaker 1: when they made a concerted effort to get the ball

445
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 1: into the paint. That's when they were able to score. Now,

446
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 1: with the zone, you can do it off the dribble.

447
00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 1: And I'm a big believer, you know, even with the

448
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: high school kids that I coach, like, drive the zone.

449
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: Drive the zone. A lot of times we will run

450
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 1: our man offense against the zone just to try to

451
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: get our guys in the headspace of driving, because zones

452
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 1: are designed to try to dissuade you from playing normal basketball.

453
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: But normal basketball works against zones, and so most like

454
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,879
Speaker 1: you can do it driving, but also through passing guys

455
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 1: flashing to the high post, catching and turning and making reads.

456
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 1: In that fourth quarter, Jayson Tatum in particular, when he

457
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 1: would catch the ball around the free throw line and

458
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 1: turn and make reads, the defense would collapse on and

459
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 1: Bama Baio would have to come up from the basket,

460
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 1: and that's when things would open up along the back

461
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,160
Speaker 1: line for layups and dunks and things along those lines.

462
00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 1: So again, against both Miami's switching man and against Miami zone,

463
00:24:07,800 --> 00:24:10,679
Speaker 1: it's going to be incredibly important for Boston to apply

464
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: rim pressure and to get into the paint. I expect

465
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: Boston because of what they've shown us in this playoff run.

466
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 1: I expect them to go through extended stretches in this

467
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 1: series where they do not perform well offensively, and I

468
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,439
Speaker 1: think Miami will beat them in those settings. It's one

469
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 1: of the biggest reasons I'm gonna go into I'm picking

470
00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 1: Boston and six and I'll explain why. But one of

471
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 1: the biggest reasons why I expect Miami to uh to

472
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: have wins in this series is extended offensive slumps from Boston.

473
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: So moving over to Miami and offense, I expect him

474
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,840
Speaker 1: to start Al Horford on bam Um, possibly Robert Williams

475
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:52,160
Speaker 1: if he comes back. But you know, as you're seeing,

476
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,440
Speaker 1: that's the same thing as the Dwight Powell problem. Even

477
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: with everything that Robert Williams brings defensively, even with everything

478
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:01,280
Speaker 1: that he brings as a vertical spacing threat, vertical spacing

479
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:03,360
Speaker 1: is just not the same as five out spacing. It's

480
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 1: just not. And so I would imagine Boston at some

481
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: point is gonna have to think hard about shelving Robert

482
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 1: Williams in this series as well or using him sparingly,

483
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 1: especially with how big the likes of Grant Williams and

484
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: Al Horford are playing, so if they if they don't

485
00:25:20,720 --> 00:25:24,159
Speaker 1: play Robert Williams, Al Horford should start on BAM. And

486
00:25:24,240 --> 00:25:26,119
Speaker 1: my guess is, you know, we've talked about this with

487
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:28,199
Speaker 1: Miami before. They run a lot of similar stuff to

488
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,880
Speaker 1: what Denver runs. It's very Yoki esque, like BAM out

489
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 1: of the high post at both elbows, running a ton

490
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 1: of dribble handoffs, a ton of ball screens, and looking

491
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 1: to score at like aggressively as a slasher out of

492
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 1: the high post, like fake dribble handoffs, things that ripped throughs,

493
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: things along those lines, right, So it's I would imagine

494
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:51,639
Speaker 1: Boston will try at at first to have Horford stay

495
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: home on BAM and try to basically make the Boston

496
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 1: guards chase everybody over the top. But in this game

497
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: that I'm referencing right before, at the end of the

498
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: regular season, Miami was getting fantastic looks on those dribble

499
00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: handoffs because the guys like Jalen Brown, the guys like

500
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: Marcus Smart, they were getting caught on BAM on those

501
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: handoffs and on those screens. So I think eventually they're

502
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 1: gonna need to start switching those and that I think

503
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: will be Boston's best chance to stagnate Miami. The biggest

504
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,959
Speaker 1: issue here is Miami does not have a ton of

505
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 1: offensive creation in an isolation situation. Bam is good, not

506
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: great as a score. You know all of these They've

507
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: got a lot of guys that come come off a

508
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:32,199
Speaker 1: green screens and shoot, like Dave Vinson can come off

509
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 1: with screens and shoot, Tyler Harrow, Duncan Robinson, you know,

510
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,959
Speaker 1: Max s Trus, Kyle Lowry. All of those guys are

511
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 1: great at coming off of screens and shooting, but they're

512
00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: not guys that are gonna stare you in the eyes

513
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: and create shots in isolation situations. So the more switching

514
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 1: Boston does, the more it forces Miami to do that

515
00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 1: kind of thing, the better success they'll They'll have. The

516
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: one guy on the roster that's gonna have their best

517
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:57,240
Speaker 1: chance at attacking mismatches is going to be Jimmy Butler. Now,

518
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 1: they put Jalen Brown on Jimmy Butler in this particular

519
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: game that I watched, although I expect it to be

520
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 1: a lot more Jason Tatum in this series. But one

521
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:08,960
Speaker 1: of the things that I noticed is they were able

522
00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: to get Jimmy Butler going downhill in situations where Boston

523
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,680
Speaker 1: was not switching. Again, teams will try to not switch,

524
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 1: especially during the regular season, because it's less taxing and

525
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: rebounding situations. You don't watch your guards for eight two

526
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: games banging with big guys from the other team. It's

527
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 1: just two taxing. They get hurt, right, So you'll see

528
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 1: teams try to manufacture possessions in the regular season where

529
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 1: they switch less. But Boston I think needs to lean

530
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: heavily into that so that Jimmy Butler doesn't have those

531
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 1: easy downhill opportunities. Make Jimmy Butler work hard to get

532
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: onto a Derek White or to get on you know,

533
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 1: to uh Daniel Tyson, Grant Williams, and make him try

534
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: to beat those guys off the dribble. And trust your

535
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,240
Speaker 1: help because you do have much better perimeter defenders than

536
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 1: anybody that Miami has played in this series. Bottom line,

537
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: and one last note, BAM's perimeter shooting consistently has been

538
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: an issue in playoffs settings. Obviously, Miami's had one of

539
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: the easier pathways to this point in this playoff runs,

540
00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: so they haven't really been forced to score in that

541
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: type of setting. Um, But I think Bam and his

542
00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 1: ability to turn and face and shoot at fifteen feet

543
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: is gonna be so important to keep Al Horford honest

544
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: so that he has to be up on him, so

545
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: that there's openings on the backside for cutters, factor cuts,

546
00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 1: slashing things along those lines. So a lot of pressure

547
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 1: on Bameda knockdown shots. I expect Miami to have a

548
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 1: really hard time scoring against this Boston defense. You saw

549
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: how hard of a time Brooklyn had, You saw how

550
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: hard of a time Milwaukee had, and they had significantly

551
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: better primary offensive options. We did this whole thing last

552
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: night when we were talking about the Phoenix Suns and

553
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:52,240
Speaker 1: Chris Paul and Devin Booker and about how in these

554
00:28:52,280 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: settings when defense has really turned up the intensity, there's

555
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: just only a handful of guys that can truly consistently

556
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 1: breakdown a defense. Jimmy's had an incredibly playoff, an incredible

557
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 1: playoff run so far, but this is going to be

558
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,240
Speaker 1: a significantly tougher match up for him than anything he's

559
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: faced to this point, and it's going to be absolutely

560
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 1: vitally important for him to play like an absolute super

561
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 1: duper star. He's capable of it. But I watched Johannae

562
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: Syntenna Kumbo fall apart in his efficiency last round amazing

563
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 1: counting stats. Janice was amazing. We don't have to get

564
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: into that again. But he dropped from a sixty three

565
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,640
Speaker 1: percent true shooting in the regular season to a fifty

566
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:35,480
Speaker 1: two percent true shooting in this series, which is horrible

567
00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: by Janice's standards. K D dropped from a sixty percent

568
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: true shooting in the regular season to fifty three in

569
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:45,840
Speaker 1: that series against Miami. Jimmy Butler is not better than Janice.

570
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: He's not better than k D. He will also experience

571
00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 1: a significant decline in this series. He will struggle mightily,

572
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 1: and that's why I'm picking Boston. As much as Boston

573
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:58,719
Speaker 1: is going to go through extensive stretches of offensive struggles

574
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: that will cause them, in my opinion, to lose basketball games,

575
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 1: I think Miami will have much worse versions of that

576
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 1: specific problem. My guests on how this series will progress

577
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: is Boston will lose Game one a lot because of fatigue.

578
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: Miami is coming off a significantly more rest. It's a

579
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: quick turnaround. Boston in general has shown a tendency in

580
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,840
Speaker 1: this playoff run particularly in the Milwaukee series, to let

581
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: up when they have a big win. Game seven was

582
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: the exception. So I expect some fatigue and a little

583
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:31,200
Speaker 1: bit of letdown and game one. Then I think Boston

584
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 1: will steal Game two, that I think the win Game

585
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: three and four, then they'll lose Game five in Miami,

586
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 1: and then I think they'll win Game six. I'm picking

587
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: Boston and six. But this one's gonna be a super

588
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: interesting defensive slug fest. And if I was a betting man,

589
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 1: I would If I were you guys and you're spending

590
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,200
Speaker 1: some time on FanDuel, I would hit the under on

591
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: every single one of these games are gonna be. It's

592
00:30:49,040 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: gonna be an old fashioned Eastern Conference defensive slugfest. The

593
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: volume