1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 3 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 6 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 9 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We said, Okay, 10 00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,319 Speaker 1: do we want to talk to an economist who knows 11 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,920 Speaker 1: all the microdata here or do we want to speak 12 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 1: to someone with a bigger, larger vision. He is strong 13 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: out on LinkedIn, writing some really allegiic notes with ubs. 14 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: They're Global Wealth Management Chief economist Paul Donovan today on 15 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: America less on China, which is one of his cottage industries. 16 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: Put it's been way too long since they've spoken to you. 17 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 1: I love your note. You talk about the hedonism of 18 00:01:05,600 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: the American consumer. How devilish are we being right now? 19 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 2: Well, I think we've got to be a little bit 20 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 2: careful with retail sales, because of course retail sales in 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 2: the state is really focused in on the good sector. 22 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,920 Speaker 2: There is a restaurant spending in there as well, but 23 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: essentially it's a good sector. As you've just been talking about. 24 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 2: It is a nominal number, so we don't adjust for inflation. 25 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 2: And what we saw in the consumer price data that 26 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 2: we had recently is US consumer goods prices for durable 27 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,480 Speaker 2: goods they're negative. They've been negative for forteen months. They're 28 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:44,920 Speaker 2: continuing to come down, so that's stamping effect. The other thing, 29 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 2: and this, I think is something we're still struggling to 30 00:01:48,040 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 2: get the scale of, is in the US and in 31 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 2: Europe and the UK, consumers are spending less on goods 32 00:01:55,680 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 2: and more on having fun and that's not captive the entertainment, 33 00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:05,280 Speaker 2: the travel. That's not really being captured here. You know, 34 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 2: I know a massive swifty like Tom is obviously paying 35 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: up for Taylor Swift concert ticket. Yes, well that's money 36 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 2: that's not going into the shops, so we've got to 37 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,680 Speaker 2: factor that into the equation as well. So soft number, absolutely, 38 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,679 Speaker 2: but I wouldn't go too far in suggesting it's a 39 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 2: week figure. 40 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: The heritage of ubs. John Anderson and China years ago. 41 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: I think a Maury Harris Drew Mattis a million years 42 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 1: ago was slicing and dicing this. Do you look at 43 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:35,839 Speaker 1: these greater numbers like retail sales? Is an aggregate statistic 44 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: or is it the haves separate holding up the rest 45 00:02:40,080 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: of the nation with they're consumer spending. 46 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 2: So I think there is now very clearly a split 47 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:51,160 Speaker 2: coming through that middle income consumers are actually in a 48 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 2: fairly okay place because you know, they've got job security, 49 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 2: very very important to have job security. Middle income consumers 50 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 2: in the state has still got savings. Lower income consumers 51 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 2: do not. And we've also got a fact that middle 52 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 2: income consumers they're already in facing inflation of about two percent. 53 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: Not if you live in Texas or Florida, there you've 54 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:17,040 Speaker 2: got an inflation problem. But most of the country, middle 55 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 2: income consumers have got low inflation, so all that's helping them. 56 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 2: But the lower income consumer they're suffering. And there's various 57 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: ways we can see this in terms of the rise 58 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: in the number of people you're taking second jobs, taking 59 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 2: third jobs to try and make ends meet, the growth 60 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 2: of buy now, pay later credit, which is starting to 61 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 2: become quite a concern, and that's very heavily skewed towards 62 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:42,720 Speaker 2: lower income, younger consumers. So there is a division coming 63 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 2: in in the consumer patterns that we're seeing. 64 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 3: Paul, I'm wondering how consumers are funding all these cruises 65 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 3: and airline flights and trips to the Super Bowl and 66 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 3: all that type of stuff. Are we concerned about consumer debt? 67 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 3: I mean, I can't imagine a fiscal stimulus from the 68 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 3: pandemicst around. Are we concerned about how the consumer's financing this? 69 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 2: So the stimulus is sort of around, so again focusing 70 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 2: in on the middle income consumer, because the lower income 71 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 2: consumer is in a is in a more difficult place, 72 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 2: but the middle income consumer, which is what tends to 73 00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:21,919 Speaker 2: drive the US economy. There, you've still got savings. Some 74 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: of that pandemic stimulus you tuck to own your bank account, 75 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 2: but the tendency is to regard that as wealth as 76 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 2: an asset, so you're not necessarily running down. The stock 77 00:04:34,000 --> 00:04:35,920 Speaker 2: of savings. You've got five thousand dollars in the bank 78 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 2: stays there. However, if you've got five thousand dollars in 79 00:04:40,000 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 2: the bank, you're starting to say, well, you know, why 80 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: are we saving three hundred dollars a month. Let's save 81 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 2: two hundreds, let's save one hundred, and so you bring 82 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 2: down the monthly savings rate, and that we can see 83 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 2: very clearly. Then again, both sides of the Atlantic, this 84 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 2: is going on, but in particular in the United States, 85 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 2: bringing down that monthly savings rate has helped support. The 86 00:04:57,880 --> 00:05:01,159 Speaker 2: other thing is that as inflation aga for middle income 87 00:05:01,200 --> 00:05:05,360 Speaker 2: consumers has been coming down, so most middle income consumers 88 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 2: have an inflation rate that's two percent or lower. What 89 00:05:08,440 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 2: that means is your real wages, your inflation adjusted wages 90 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 2: are just that bit better. You've got that little bit 91 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 2: more firepower to your spending. 92 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: Paul Donovan ubs with us and we will continue the 93 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,640 Speaker 1: economist Sam Row. Have you seen his Yankee seats? 94 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 2: I have not. 95 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,600 Speaker 1: They're they're just off to the left side of the 96 00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: dugout as far, it's just unbelievable, samro slices and dices it. 97 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: Thank you, Sam. Gas stations negative one point seven percent, gardening, Paul, 98 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:38,719 Speaker 1: the garden you've been doing negative four percent is well, 99 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:42,920 Speaker 1: what a shock, Thank you, Sam. Restaurants and bars up 100 00:05:42,960 --> 00:05:48,240 Speaker 1: seven ten right there, team surveillance keeping Retail sales elevated exactly. 101 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 3: So, Paul, how do you think the US Federal Reserve 102 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:53,440 Speaker 3: are going to look at some of these economic data 103 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:55,919 Speaker 3: points we've been kind of seeing over the last several 104 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 3: weeks here as we kind of gu up for a 105 00:05:57,560 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 3: March meeting than a May meeting in a. 106 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:07,599 Speaker 2: Well, in an ideal world, I think the Fed would 107 00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 2: not be looking at the recent data points in isolation, 108 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 2: that be looking at the trend. The big problem that 109 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 2: we've got, and we know this is data quality has 110 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 2: really deteriorated US, Europe, UK. You know, there's a general 111 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 2: reduction in the precision of economic data, so we can't 112 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 2: afford to get two works up about a single point. 113 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,359 Speaker 2: I think that what we are still seeing from the 114 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 2: United States on the data that we can trust is 115 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 2: there is a moderation, but there's not a collapse in 116 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 2: economic activity. The general direction of inflation is down. Now 117 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 2: that means I think, you know, the next move is 118 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: a great cut, is it marked? I don't think they're 119 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 2: going to have enough of a trend in March to go, 120 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 2: so they probably go in May, because by May you've got, 121 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 2: you know, a solid body of evidence that you know, 122 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,040 Speaker 2: the direction of travel of inflation is down. The economy 123 00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 2: is not collapsing, but you don't want to be running 124 00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 2: so restrictive a monetary policy. 125 00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: You know. I look, Paul, and I got to do 126 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 1: this with the heritage of Johnny Anderson in ubs China. 127 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,719 Speaker 1: For you, it's a cottage industry. Do you believe in 128 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: five percent Chinese growth? 129 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,119 Speaker 2: I believe the official figures will probably record five percent 130 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: Chinese growth this year. Does that mean the economy actually 131 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: grows as a five percent That's a very different question. 132 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 2: China's got a struggle, of course, because of the US consumer, 133 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: because you're you're all off to Taylor Swift and you're 134 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: not buying flat screen televisions anymore. You know, China doesn't 135 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 2: export having fun. China exports goods, and that weakness of 136 00:07:36,200 --> 00:07:39,160 Speaker 2: international demand. I mean, we've got falling durable goods demand 137 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 2: in Europe, got stagnant durable goods demand in the United States. 138 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,040 Speaker 2: The prices are coming down, so the external side can't 139 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 2: be relied upon. On the domestic side, the consumer in 140 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 2: China is sort of fairly sclerotic that they're just not 141 00:07:53,200 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 2: particularly infused. The government is stepping in clearly with fiscal stimulus, 142 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:01,360 Speaker 2: and that sign up to a point. In my view, 143 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 2: it's not the right way to engineer long term growth. 144 00:08:04,480 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 2: You know, you need to be focusing more on trying 145 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 2: to raise the consumer share of GDP. But that's where 146 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 2: they're going to focus for the time being. You know, 147 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,360 Speaker 2: it's tried and tested policies. This works twenty years ago, 148 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 2: so why won't it work now. As somebody who started 149 00:08:18,200 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 2: their career covering Japan thirty years ago, I'm a little 150 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 2: bit skeptical about that argument, but you know that's the 151 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 2: way they're going to go this year. 152 00:08:24,040 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 1: I think, don't be a stranger. Paul Donovan with us 153 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: with UBS just wonderful there. I can't say enough about 154 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 1: his workout and linked in with that question our Interview 155 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: of the Day and international relations, And I may argue, 156 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: Paul one of the shining points of our study of 157 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:54,839 Speaker 1: the chaos in the Eastern Mediterranean. Many people talk, many 158 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: people write, other people do. He is a former Ambassador 159 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: of the States to Israel and also the former Ambassador 160 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: of the United States Egypt. That speaks volumes. Daniel Kurtzer 161 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 1: joins us right now. Daniel, you were a young Turk 162 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 1: in Egypt with all of your Jewish heritage, with your 163 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: work at Columbia and there you were in Egypt the 164 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: day that Anwar Sadat was assassinated. What was that like? 165 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 4: Well, it was a holiday season and we actually had 166 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 4: gone off to the beach. My ambassador at the time, 167 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 4: Roy Atherton, attended the military parade at which Saddan was assassinated. 168 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 4: We got a call from the embassy to say the 169 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 4: initial reports were that Vice President Mubarik had been hit 170 00:09:47,000 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 4: by gunfire. So I packed up the car, put my 171 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 4: three kids in the back seat, went back to Cairo, 172 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 4: and seven days later went home. We were concerned about 173 00:09:58,559 --> 00:10:02,719 Speaker 4: a larger uprising that appeared to be in progress. There 174 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 4: were attacks on police stations and military units. It was 175 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 4: quite quite a time. 176 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: We have a larger uprising now, the new Israel. Compare 177 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,400 Speaker 1: it to all of your public service to the nation. 178 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: I'm going to say a pivot point was another terrible day, 179 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 1: the assassination of its akra beIN. But the new Israel, 180 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: what is the character of that versus all that you've 181 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:26,760 Speaker 1: studied in your career. 182 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:33,319 Speaker 4: Well, Israel has been moving right for the past twenty 183 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:38,360 Speaker 4: five years. The onslaught of terrorism, the First and Second 184 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 4: Palestinian uprisings, the Intifadas have basically decimated the peace camp 185 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 4: in Israel and left many people persuaded that it's not 186 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:52,439 Speaker 4: peace is not possible. October seventh, the horrific Hamas massacre, 187 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 4: I think has been the final nail in that coffin. 188 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 4: And so you have an Israeli public that's not only traumatized, 189 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 4: but persuaded that there's no peace on the horizon. 190 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 3: So where does that leave us? Professor? Here, We're several 191 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 3: months into this conflict, and from this vantage point here 192 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 3: in the States, it just doesn't look like there's any 193 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 3: real solution here. Can you walk us through what could 194 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 3: be some scenarios here? 195 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,079 Speaker 4: Sure? Look, the if there's a hope that change will 196 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 4: come from the region, I think that's not going to 197 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:27,439 Speaker 4: be fulfilled. You don't have the leadership either in Israel, 198 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 4: among Palestinians, or in the Arab world that would take 199 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 4: this and run towards a more peaceful outcome, which puts 200 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 4: the onus very much on the United States and other 201 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 4: outside parties. Of course, we're in an election year, makes 202 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 4: it challenging politically for the President to consider a major initiative, 203 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 4: but without a strong US push, not only to rebuild Gaza, 204 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,640 Speaker 4: and to provide some hope for the millions of people 205 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 4: who've been displaced, but also to try to get the 206 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 4: peace process back on track. Without a US push, we're 207 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,880 Speaker 4: going to be faded, to have this kind of ongoing 208 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 4: violence for years to come. 209 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 3: So give us a sense, Professor, the position of mister 210 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,440 Speaker 3: nettniwho in Israel in this whole conflict. We know prior 211 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 3: to October seventh there are serious challenges to his position. 212 00:12:18,880 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 3: Where are we now? What kind of role will he 213 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,000 Speaker 3: play over the coming months and then maybe even beyond. 214 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 4: Well, October seventh changed his political fortunes to a great degree. 215 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 4: Even though the opposition before that time had been arguing 216 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 4: against his ideas for judicial reform, he was pretty firmly 217 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 4: in power with a right wing coalition. Right now, however, 218 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 4: his polling numbers are have tanked. He's somewhere around ten 219 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 4: twelve percent, and the assumption is that there's an election, 220 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 4: he's not going to return. But it's not easy to 221 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 4: get rid of a prime minister if that coalition hangs together, 222 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,360 Speaker 4: and so you have a situation where a prime minister 223 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 4: is governing without support. 224 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: In the precious time we have left with you, Ambassador. 225 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,319 Speaker 1: And you know, again, I probably can't say enough about 226 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 1: someone with roadworthy experience of Cairo, Yes, and Tel Aviv 227 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: and Jerusalem as well. But Ambassador, I want to turn 228 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 1: to the protests in America and I want to take 229 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,600 Speaker 1: it to your Columbia University. And it may be students 230 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 1: for Justice in Palestine. It may be in December Columbia 231 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: suspended pro Palestine student groups. Ambassador, with your service to 232 00:13:30,160 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 1: Egypt and your knowledge of the Arab world, I want 233 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: you to speak to the kids who are pro Palestine. 234 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: What would you say to them? 235 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 4: You know, the hardest thing for those of us who 236 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 4: have served in government, but also for those of us 237 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:49,679 Speaker 4: in the private sector, is to have two contradictory ideas 238 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 4: in our mind at the same time. You know, what 239 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 4: happened to Israel on October seventh was unimaginable and what's 240 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:00,400 Speaker 4: happening in Gosa since is unimaginable. And so, you know, 241 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:03,760 Speaker 4: to take one side or another really doesn't help resolve 242 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 4: this issue. And the argument I've made is on Princeton's 243 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,560 Speaker 4: campus where I now teach, or at Columbia where I 244 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,719 Speaker 4: did my studies, is we've got to talk to each 245 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 4: other about this. It doesn't mean that you can't be 246 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 4: a partisan. It doesn't mean that you fanadicate for change. 247 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 4: But we've got to start talking to each other. 248 00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: Two our two presumptive candidates. Can President Trump and President 249 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 1: Biden talk to each other? 250 00:14:27,960 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 4: Doesn't look like it. They've adopted so many positions in 251 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 4: contrast to each other, and now they're moving further away 252 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:41,000 Speaker 4: in this era of highly partisan politics, both domestically and 253 00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:41,880 Speaker 4: in foreign policy. 254 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: Professor Kurtzer, thank you so much, Daniel Kurtzer at Princeton, 255 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: and of course this public service to America in Cairo 256 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: and also in a greater Israel. Cathol economics on the 257 00:14:56,000 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 1: retail sales, I like what their language is finally the consumers. Yes, 258 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: so that's a good language here. Why don't we get 259 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: a brief? Why don't you bring him Young? 260 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 3: Absolutely, Liz Young. She is over at so Far. That's 261 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,320 Speaker 3: where the kids invest. Great great platform over there at 262 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 3: so Far. She's had an investment strategy. So, Liz, we've 263 00:15:13,280 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 3: had a lot of economic data, we've had a lot 264 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 3: of earnings data. When you put it into your mixture, 265 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:23,360 Speaker 3: what do you come out with for a strategy for 266 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 3: your clients? 267 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,040 Speaker 5: You know, It's interesting. This has been a big economic 268 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 5: data week, and obviously we saw the market wabble quite 269 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,800 Speaker 5: a bit on Tuesday, but then we were over at Wednesday, 270 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 5: where we look to be somewhat over it today. I 271 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,720 Speaker 5: don't think yet that there are enough data points in 272 00:15:39,760 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 5: a row to scare investors out of what continues to 273 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 5: be this momentumy late cycle market environment, and so far 274 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 5: that's probably okay. The thing that is getting somewhat troublesome 275 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 5: for me is that we continue to say, well, the 276 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,000 Speaker 5: labor market is strong, therefore the consumer is strong. And 277 00:15:58,040 --> 00:16:00,560 Speaker 5: now if this retail sales number is not just a 278 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 5: blip on the radar, we're starting to see cracks and 279 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 5: consumer spending. So perhaps the labor market numbers that we 280 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 5: get are not really representing the true sentiment that's out there. 281 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 5: And I think that's a decent possibility. 282 00:16:14,480 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 3: So for FED watchers out there, can they kind of 283 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:20,360 Speaker 3: extrapolate here and say, hmm, maybe the FED needs to 284 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 3: get moving here to kind of help the consumer here 285 00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 3: if we get much more data like this. 286 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 5: My short answer to that is. 287 00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 6: No, Okay, that's good. 288 00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 5: So what's interesting is the FED has said even this 289 00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 5: week there's been a decent amount of Fed speak, and 290 00:16:36,800 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 5: what you've heard from them is that we expected this. 291 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 5: We expected there to be a little bit of an 292 00:16:41,240 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 5: uptick in inflation. So this is still in line with 293 00:16:43,920 --> 00:16:47,120 Speaker 5: our projections. Here's the thing about the FED too, They're 294 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:49,480 Speaker 5: not going to change their tune because they don't have to. 295 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 5: This actually proves that they were right. At least the 296 00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 5: CPI data proves that they were right. The last message 297 00:16:55,720 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 5: that we got from Jerome Powell was something along the 298 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 5: lines of we are not yet confident enough to start 299 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 5: cutting rates, which is what took that March rate cut 300 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 5: off the table, and that was probably the right thing 301 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,919 Speaker 5: to do. So the odds of a may cut have 302 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 5: increased slightly, but we're still at about a fifty to 303 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 5: fifty probability. That's a coin toss. That still proves that 304 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 5: the Fed was right to say we should wait. We're 305 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:21,960 Speaker 5: not there yet. 306 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: Okay, Liz, I'm going to cut to the chase. And 307 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people don't know this. It's great. 308 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: You know, we talk about Belton suspenders. We got a 309 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 1: lot of Wall Street firms like that. Liz Young's never 310 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 1: won a belt, She's never warned suspenders I mean, it's digital, 311 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,919 Speaker 1: it's new. But what this is really about, Liz is 312 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: your leadership is Anthony Nodo once you know, years ago 313 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: he's at Golden Sex years ago. I'm like, who is 314 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,919 Speaker 1: this guy? Because like you're reading it fourteen page documents 315 00:17:47,920 --> 00:17:50,320 Speaker 1: and you got to read every page of Anthony Notdo. 316 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 1: Then he goes to the NFL. Then he wanders by 317 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:54,800 Speaker 1: Twitter for a cup of coffee and he goes I 318 00:17:54,840 --> 00:17:57,240 Speaker 1: got to work with Liz Young. So I got Anthony 319 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: Noto and I got Liz Young. Over it's so far 320 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:04,199 Speaker 1: doing the modern thing. Do we underestimate Liz Young the 321 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:08,480 Speaker 1: modern thing which Note's done for decades? Do we underestimate 322 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:12,959 Speaker 1: our technology? Do we underestimate our productivity on top of 323 00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: that technology? 324 00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 5: Well, I don't think investors are underestimating it necessarily. I mean, 325 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,840 Speaker 5: obviously we've seen a lot of money flow into these 326 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 5: themes that are very progressive for the next five to 327 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 5: ten years. One of the things that we have the 328 00:18:27,080 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 5: benefit of it so far is this unique ability to 329 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 5: see investors and see consumers through all stages of their journey. 330 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 5: So we can start with the student loan piece of it, 331 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 5: we can then graduate them into banking, then we graduate 332 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 5: into mortgages, we talk about investing, saving for your future, 333 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:46,159 Speaker 5: saving for retirement. There are all sorts of things that 334 00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 5: we get a lens into and we continue to grow 335 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 5: that member base, which is great, and I think that 336 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:53,280 Speaker 5: there are a lot of consumers out there that are 337 00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 5: appreciating that progressive approach to managing your finances. Now, are 338 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 5: we underestimating the power of productivity if we just drift 339 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 5: over to investing to some degree, I don't think we're 340 00:19:07,280 --> 00:19:10,880 Speaker 5: underestimating it. The issue that I have with the productivity 341 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,959 Speaker 5: argument is that you'll hear that a lot, right. We 342 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 5: can still have GDP grow if productivity grows, and it 343 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 5: shouldn't increase inflation too much. The pushback that I would 344 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:23,400 Speaker 5: give is that if you look at the AI theme 345 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 5: for example, So if your thesis is that AI is 346 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,480 Speaker 5: what's going to help grow productivity, look at how much 347 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:33,080 Speaker 5: the companies that have benefited from this AI boost are 348 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 5: spending on AI. If they're spending and investing that much 349 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 5: on that new theme, their costs are rising. Eventually prices 350 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 5: go up, so it does all bled through. I do 351 00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 5: think it still grows inflation, at least in the near 352 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 5: to medium terms. 353 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 1: As Paul Sweeney age this morning, we have somebody in 354 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: there telling me I got to rebail and sell my Microsoft, 355 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: sell my NVIDIAs, sell my Magnificent seven. It's so far 356 00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 1: are you rebalancing out of the stocks at Anthony Koto 357 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 1: covered for years. 358 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 5: I wouldn't say we. I mean, we were not telling 359 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,320 Speaker 5: people that they have to rebalance. The only way that 360 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 5: I can really answer that for our platform is what's 361 00:20:09,800 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 5: going on in our robo advisor, in the models that 362 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 5: we have there, and we do make sure that we're 363 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 5: not overly concentrated in any one or two names, So 364 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 5: you'll see us underweight some of those meg seven in 365 00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,760 Speaker 5: those models, just by nature of making sure that concentration 366 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,439 Speaker 5: isn't too much in exposing people too much to those bets. 367 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 5: But investors obviously can do whatever they like with their 368 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:34,080 Speaker 5: own portfolios. And what we've seen so far is that 369 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 5: there's still a lot of this late cycle behavior which 370 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 5: breeds FOMO and you see people chasing the momentum trade. 371 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,240 Speaker 5: So I think that's happening across all platforms, and it 372 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 5: continues to happen because so far, there really hasn't been 373 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 5: a huge reason to not believe in it, But I 374 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,399 Speaker 5: do think that as some of this data stacks up, 375 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 5: if it continues on this trend where we've got hotter CPI, 376 00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 5: cooler retail spending, that starts to bleed over into earnings 377 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 5: in the next quarter or two, As that data stacks up, 378 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 5: you'll see people start to rejigger some of their investments 379 00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 5: and rethink the thesis that that's based on. 380 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:10,439 Speaker 1: Liz, thank you so much. Liz Young with us is 381 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: so far just just always to me a breath of 382 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:26,640 Speaker 1: fresh air and thinking about the different trends. Today's from 383 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: page headlines with the newspapers, Lisa Matteil, what do you 384 00:21:29,960 --> 00:21:30,680 Speaker 1: have today, Lisa? 385 00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:34,320 Speaker 7: All right, we's getting with a Washington Post. They're saying 386 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 7: that there's a study out there the teachers are being 387 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 7: a little bit more careful about what they teach in 388 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,000 Speaker 7: the classroom. This study was through K through twelve teachers 389 00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 7: sixty five percent they said they restricted instruction on political 390 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 7: and social issues. So why are they doing that? Well, 391 00:21:48,760 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 7: they're worried about backlash from parents if they teach them 392 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,679 Speaker 7: the wrong thing or something that's controversial. Then they're worried 393 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 7: that they're not going to get the support from school leaders, 394 00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,280 Speaker 7: a lot more parents. They're filing these book challenges, so 395 00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:03,440 Speaker 7: they're challenging the books that the schools are using. There's 396 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,919 Speaker 7: also more legislation that's changing how teachers are allowed to 397 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 7: even talk about things like race. 398 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 4: Is this initial? Is this like within the zip code? 399 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: Is it? You know? 400 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 4: Where is this? 401 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:14,360 Speaker 6: Yeah? 402 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 7: This is nationally, but there are different areas, you know, 403 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 7: politically conservative areas where teachers are most likely to consider 404 00:22:23,800 --> 00:22:26,200 Speaker 7: reconsider about what they're teaching to their kids. 405 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: It's just a whole new world after it's Yeah. 406 00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 3: You know, I thought it was at the local school 407 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:34,320 Speaker 3: board level, but I guess there's some more issues going 408 00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 3: on there. And I was just looking at this report, 409 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 3: a report by the RAND Corporation found out of a 410 00:22:38,960 --> 00:22:42,359 Speaker 3: nationally representative sample of fourteen hundred k through twelve teachers, yeah, 411 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 3: sixty five percent, while had some restrictions. 412 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 1: So an Illinois headline quickly here Lisa. The other day 413 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: of the I'm going to editorialize and say the failure 414 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:57,119 Speaker 1: of mathematics education in Illinois, which was just painful. I 415 00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,399 Speaker 1: mean to say, at least, what else? Yeah, what are 416 00:22:59,440 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: you about? 417 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:00,120 Speaker 6: Here? 418 00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 7: Are the We're going to the Financial Times they're talking 419 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 7: about City Group. You know, they've been trying to improve 420 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 7: struggling wealth management business. 421 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 6: They've been cutting jobs. You've heard about that. 422 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 7: Now they're creating some new performance metrics. So here's what 423 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 7: they are. Financial Time says they're starting to track how 424 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 7: many calls it's private bankers are making to clients. So 425 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 7: private bankers they now have to turn in call reports 426 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 7: to record each conversation they have with the client. I 427 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 7: don't know if this is normal. They also been asked 428 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:30,960 Speaker 7: to contact each of their clients at least once every 429 00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 7: ninety days. 430 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 6: Employees are saying, you. 431 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 7: Know what, it's not an effect score waiting. 432 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 3: I mean, as a self site analyst, we had to 433 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:39,320 Speaker 3: do that. 434 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:40,600 Speaker 6: We filled out on the door way. 435 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 3: I did one hundred calls a week for twenty years. 436 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 3: That's how you build up your client base. And then 437 00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:47,679 Speaker 3: you you know, you have to talk to everybody, You 438 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,280 Speaker 3: have to travel, you have to be out there. I 439 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,160 Speaker 3: don't have a problem with that, and this is. 440 00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:54,440 Speaker 1: Important and good morning Global Wall Streeters Live. There is 441 00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: somebody right now on YouTube watching this on their cell 442 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,479 Speaker 1: phone at O'Hare who's got to go to Cincinnati and 443 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: then des Moines. 444 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 3: YEP. 445 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: On a cell side call, Paul, do you suggest there's 446 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 1: still no substitute for getting on the phone and getting 447 00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:11,200 Speaker 1: out there? 448 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:11,919 Speaker 6: Absolutely? 449 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 3: I think so. And you know, but we saw during 450 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 3: the pandemic that you can kind of get around it 451 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 3: a lot. But zoom, you know, yeah, zoom and all 452 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 3: that type of issues. I don't know, but you know. 453 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 3: But then you know, everybody, you know, you eaven blast, voicemails, 454 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,520 Speaker 3: blast emails, all that kind of stuff. 455 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: It's everybody's am I regul Lisa. 456 00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:31,440 Speaker 3: That's why one of the greatest functions on the Bloomberg 457 00:24:31,520 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 3: Terminal is I be because what I found is you 458 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 3: I be a client boom. They ping it right back 459 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,080 Speaker 3: and won't answer your phone call, they won't answer your email. 460 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,439 Speaker 3: But if you I be them because it pops right up. 461 00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 2: Yep. 462 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 3: And you're part of the Bloomberg brotherhood. And that's one 463 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 3: of the one of the many great values of the 464 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,200 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Terminal is the ib part of the Bloomberg brother. 465 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,760 Speaker 1: You are absolutely all. 466 00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,159 Speaker 6: Right, We're going to the New York Times. 467 00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,639 Speaker 7: Uh, motion picture production returning to New York City. So 468 00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 7: you had that pause and filming with the pandemic, you 469 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 7: had the writers and actors strike right, but now it's 470 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 7: starting to rebound. Last month, the city issued three hundred 471 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,640 Speaker 7: and eighty nine permits for eighty eight different projects. 472 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 6: We're talking about TV series, I see you've seen them. Okay, good, 473 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:13,000 Speaker 6: they're back. 474 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:13,880 Speaker 3: They're they're back. 475 00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 7: It's good, Daredevil, Law and Order, FBI. There are even movies. 476 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 7: They're filming movies out there. Friendship the Penguin is coming out. 477 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 7: They're filming within the city. 478 00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:22,960 Speaker 3: So I saw Donny Walbert. 479 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, Blood Blood. 480 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 3: I should I'm a huge fan. 481 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:29,640 Speaker 6: Yes, great too, great show. 482 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 1: It's great. 483 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:31,600 Speaker 6: Are you and New Kids on the Block? 484 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 3: You are, sorry, Tom, We're learning so much about Lisa 485 00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 3: Mittello's home. 486 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 1: New Kids on She's got the donuts commercial and Looke, 487 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 1: she's so Boston. That's it almost talked like Brooklyn. 488 00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 7: There quick one last one Wall Street Journal, tooth Fairy inflation. 489 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 6: Parents are dropping. 490 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 7: Twenty dollars and one hundred dollars bills for that first. 491 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:03,160 Speaker 6: Two, even giving out gifts like iPhones videos. 492 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 3: I'm telling you it's a quarter. You got a quarter. 493 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 6: I gave it a dollar. 494 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:10,639 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've done a dollar. I've done a dollar back 495 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 3: in the day. 496 00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:14,359 Speaker 6: But it's going up. It's crazy. I don't know these parents. 497 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 6: There's even parents growing my first tooth parties. You gotta 498 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 6: be kidding. 499 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:23,920 Speaker 1: Do you know that I just got the last braces off. 500 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,159 Speaker 6: Oh those are expensive, I have, I got, I. 501 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,000 Speaker 1: Got the braces. They did a great job, yes, you know, 502 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 1: I mean the guy's got a new Hinckley sale board. 503 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,399 Speaker 1: But but it was like, it was like that time 504 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,199 Speaker 1: where you're Toys r Us a million years ago and 505 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,080 Speaker 1: you were in aisle too, where they're trying to hide 506 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,360 Speaker 1: the diapers and you're looking down the aisle going I'm 507 00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,639 Speaker 1: never gonna buy diapers again. That's sort of like what 508 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,440 Speaker 1: the braces thing was like. Lisa Minna Tello, I guess 509 00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:51,440 Speaker 1: thank you for that. 510 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:52,480 Speaker 4: She makes us feel. 511 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 3: But new kids on the block. I didn't. 512 00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 1: I didn't. 513 00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 6: You won't let it go. 514 00:26:58,480 --> 00:26:59,920 Speaker 4: It's been a million years ago. 515 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,840 Speaker 1: I went to the Boston Music Awards whatever they are, yes, 516 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 1: and they were just breaking at the time, and they 517 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:06,560 Speaker 1: came out. 518 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 8: And I'm like, yeah, you know, great, big deal dance 519 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:12,639 Speaker 8: boy dance band, blew the room away. I was they 520 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,120 Speaker 8: were brand new people basically barely knew who they were, 521 00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:17,879 Speaker 8: and I was blown away. 522 00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:19,240 Speaker 3: Well absolutely, I. 523 00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 6: Grew up in a household. There there's four girls. I 524 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 6: have three sisters. 525 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 3: Wow. 526 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 7: So it was, you know, the new kids on the block. Yeah, 527 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 7: who was your favorite? That was always a thing. I 528 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,119 Speaker 7: was Jonathan. Another one had Jordan. 529 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 1: You know. 530 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,200 Speaker 7: It was just it was it was all over the place. 531 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 7: But yeah, in the house. God bless my dad. 532 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:37,760 Speaker 1: Yes, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate that. This is 533 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:42,879 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 534 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:46,679 Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 535 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:51,240 Speaker 1: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 536 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,760 Speaker 1: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 537 00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 538 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 1: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, 539 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,560 Speaker 1: and always i Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 540 00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App.