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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Monday morning episode of

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Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perolt.

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Speaker 2: You guys following across all of my socials at Sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt in this podcast being brought to you by

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Speaker 2: our friends at DraftKings. I will apologize for my voice today.

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Speaker 2: It's going to be a little bit on the ras

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Speaker 2: by side. I am absolutely fighting off the first cold

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Speaker 2: of the cold season, which is never fun. Well to

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Speaker 2: get sick and then have this week happen kind of

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Speaker 2: a I don't know, a beginning, a problem, whatever you

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Speaker 2: want to call it. Like, let's just close that week

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Speaker 2: and shut the door and never talk about it again.

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Speaker 1: Really bad week.

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Speaker 2: I haven't had one of those since July. It's been

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Speaker 2: a while since we had the full on destruction of

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Speaker 2: the bank roll. That's sort of what makes sports betting

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Speaker 2: so difficult, because your winning weeks are never as big

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Speaker 2: as your destructive weeks when everything just goes against you

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Speaker 2: and everything falls apart.

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Speaker 1: And that's what happened. I mean, look at yesterday.

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Speaker 2: We wind up going oh three and one, the props

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Speaker 2: go three and one from the live streams or down

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Speaker 2: two point seven eight units. The Commanders pushed for us

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Speaker 2: on that, but the Saints got throttled. Both unders go over.

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Speaker 2: I was stunned to see the offense. I was stunned

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Speaker 2: to see the lack of defense. Just one of those

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Speaker 2: things where you're watching, going like where is this coming from?

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Speaker 2: These turnovers and mistakes, and I mean we were going

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Speaker 2: the Raiders were doing their part, trying to not score.

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Speaker 2: Then garbage time, the Steelers just let them go down

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Speaker 2: the field to burn clock, and you know, we get

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Speaker 2: the Steelers to win and cover. The one benefit from

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Speaker 2: this week is that we went back to normalcy in

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Speaker 2: the NFL after a really crazy, ridiculous on the most

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Speaker 2: lopsided ticket bet games cashed for the public. It was

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Speaker 2: the revenge of the public. The majority of tickets were

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Speaker 2: on the Falcons. They won and covered the Texans, they

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Speaker 2: won and covered the Bengals, they won and covered the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: They won and covered the Colts and Bears and Lions.

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Speaker 2: Only the Commanders, but that number closed at seven, so

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Speaker 2: they pushed. Good day for the public. It also means

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Speaker 2: that there's some return to normalcy here in betting in

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Speaker 2: the NFL, so I can go back to what I've

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Speaker 2: been doing I didn't do any teasers yesterday, so why

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Speaker 2: not we jump in here on a Monday to tease

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Speaker 2: things quickly before we get to the picks. A bunch

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Speaker 2: of you have been asking me for picks, saying, Matt,

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Speaker 2: what do you want on games that I am not betting?

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Speaker 2: I know what you're doing. I would do it too. Okay,

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Speaker 2: it's fine, you can ask me. I'm ice cold. So

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Speaker 2: whatever side I'm going to be on, you guys want

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Speaker 2: to go ahead and bet the other side. Not opposed

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Speaker 2: to it at all, given how poorly this week has gone.

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Speaker 1: But for some of you, and two of you in particular, you.

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Speaker 2: Reached out and asked me how to handle this type

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Speaker 2: of losing, and you've been following my picks, and for

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Speaker 2: that I apologize, But you said, how do I handle this?

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Speaker 2: How do I not chase? So let's just do a

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Speaker 2: quick tutorial again here on bankroll management. I think it's

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Speaker 2: really important for fun. And I'm not saying your bankroll

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Speaker 2: has to be this, but it's easier for the math.

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Speaker 2: And we say your bankroll is one thousand dollars, whatever

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Speaker 2: your bankroll is, whatever you're comfortable. I don't care if

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Speaker 2: it's ten dollars. But it's let's just say it's one thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars for the entire football season. Your one unit should

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Speaker 2: be three to five percent. For me, I go three percent.

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Speaker 2: I'm always pretty conservative. Okay, So let's do the math

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Speaker 2: here as to how do I withstand losing ten units

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Speaker 2: and more? Really for what I lost personally? I how

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Speaker 2: do I withstand that and keep going?

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Speaker 1: Well? Here's how Okay.

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Speaker 2: So if you are betting one thousand dollars for a bankroll,

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Speaker 2: and you're betting three percent, Okay, it's thirty dollars, right,

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Speaker 2: So you lose ten bets ten units, that's three hundred dollars.

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Speaker 2: Now we're down to seven hundred dollars for a bankroll.

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Speaker 2: You have to readjust your unit size. Now your unit

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Speaker 2: size drops down to twenty one dollars, okay, until you

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Speaker 2: win it back. Let's say you get back up to

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Speaker 2: thirteen hundred. Now you're three percent is thirty nine dollars.

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Speaker 2: That's how you withstand By turtling, by shrinking, you're still

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Speaker 2: betting the same percentage. You're still betting three, four or

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Speaker 2: five percent of your bankroll. It's that your unit size

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Speaker 2: is shrinking, and when your unit size shrinks. When you're cold,

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Speaker 2: you're not losing as much money. So I'm not losing

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Speaker 2: as much money as I would have been, say two

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Speaker 2: months ago, when we were pretty flush, even last month, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, look at we're now underwater in the NFL. Okay,

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Speaker 2: we are twenty five and thirty five since the start

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty four, which ludes last year's playoffs. But

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Speaker 2: we're down a unit. You know, we're down. We're down

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Speaker 2: one unit. The NFL props are thirty eight and twenty seven.

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Speaker 2: We are profitable there, and college football is thirty seven

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Speaker 2: and thirty four. We're up seven point five units in

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Speaker 2: college football. Look, baseball was a disaster. Okay, obviously it

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Speaker 2: was horrific, and that really put us behind the eight ball.

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Speaker 1: But just because we have.

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Speaker 2: An awful week doesn't mean we're going to have an

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Speaker 2: awful football season.

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Speaker 1: Okay, it's just a bad week.

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Speaker 2: Flush it. Move on, let's get going here for another

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Speaker 2: Monday night football primetime game. Okay, but before I give

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Speaker 2: you the picks, let's talk about the DraftKings pick six.

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Speaker 2: I went one for three on that, So even if

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Speaker 2: you faded all three of those picks, you didn't win

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Speaker 2: as the one thing you can't go you need to

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Speaker 2: go two in three, So if you faded it, you

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Speaker 2: may have won some money. Brock Bauers went over Tera,

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Speaker 2: mcclaurin went under in I'm on, Saint Brown went under

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Speaker 2: the yardage that we played, Jamis and Williams went over

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Speaker 2: on the bet, the prop bet that we bet, so

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Speaker 2: I had you know one of those two guys was

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Speaker 2: gonna go off. I bet money on Williams. I bet

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Speaker 2: the DraftKings pick six on Saint Brown. It did work

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Speaker 2: on that, so that didn't come in. But if you

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Speaker 2: guys are interested in doing these things, you can do

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Speaker 2: it pretty easily by jumping in here with DraftKings the

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Speaker 2: pick six. Okay, if you haven't downloaded the pick six yet,

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Speaker 2: go ahead and go and do that right now. It's

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Speaker 2: available wherever you guys get your apps, App Store, the

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Speaker 2: Google Play, the App Store for Google. You guys are

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Speaker 2: going download it, use the code juice and new customers

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Speaker 2: will get a five dollars When you play five dollars,

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Speaker 2: you get a fifty dollars pick six credit that is guaranteed.

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Speaker 2: Gambling problem called one hundred Gambler Help is available for

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Speaker 2: problem gambling called eight eight eight seven eight nine seven

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Speaker 2: seven seven or visit CCPG dot org in knet. It

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Speaker 2: must be eighteen plus age nailed. Bility restrictions may vary

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Speaker 2: by jurisdiction. Pick six not available everywhere, including New York

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Speaker 2: and Ontario. Void ware prohibited, sea terms ad Pick six

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Speaker 2: dot DraftKings dot com, slash promos. Okay, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 2: we're gonna go back to the well. This is a

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Speaker 2: hard game to bet. Okay, my gut tells me the

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Speaker 2: Bills win. My gut's been dead wrong all week. Everyone's

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Speaker 2: on the Jets. So in case I'm wrong and the

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Speaker 2: Jets do win, number opened up two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's now down to one and a half.

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Speaker 2: You know what I'm gonna do. That's what I always

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Speaker 2: do Primetime. We're five and four on our Primetime Same

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Speaker 2: Game teasers. Okay, we've won money doing this, so we're

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Speaker 2: slightly up, not high, but we're up. Okay on this.

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Speaker 2: You can go the other way if you want, and

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Speaker 2: maybe the bills you can cross zero. I don't recommend it,

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Speaker 2: but you want to take the bills and give them

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Speaker 2: bills points? Okay, you want to go over? Okay, going

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Speaker 2: the other way. I'm coming in with the Bills and

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Speaker 2: the Jets. I'm going Jets plus seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: teasing six point teaser from plus one and a half

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Speaker 2: up to seven and a half and going under forty

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Speaker 2: six and a half from forty and a half up

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Speaker 2: to forty six and a half. Dead cut bounce is

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Speaker 2: a real thing. Okay, firing Robert Sala, But I do

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Speaker 2: think there's going to be a new environment for the Jets.

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Speaker 2: I think for one game, I think they can rally here.

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Speaker 2: And I'm not a huge fan of Josh Allen up

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Speaker 2: against the Jets on the road. Josh Allen in the

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Speaker 2: game last year was sacked five times in New York

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Speaker 2: by this defense. He threw three interceptions. Now different year,

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Speaker 2: but still the year before that against the Jets, he

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Speaker 2: threw two interceptions. Year before that against the Jets, he

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Speaker 2: threw one interceptions. Been picked off in three straight games

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Speaker 2: in this building by this Jets defense. I think the

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Speaker 2: Jets defense will feel more I don't want to say motivated,

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Speaker 2: because they're definitely motivated, but I think that they're gonna

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Speaker 2: have a new pep in their step. If you will,

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Speaker 2: thinking that the offense, will we run differently and the

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Speaker 2: offense might actually do something. The last two games have

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Speaker 2: been an abject disaster, I mean an absolute disaster here

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Speaker 2: for this. So for me, I think the Jets are

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Speaker 2: gonna rally. But let's say the Bills win, the Bills

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Speaker 2: win by three or the Jets win. I don't think

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Speaker 2: they win by seven or more. Okay, so we're gonna

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Speaker 2: tease the Jets up to plus seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: and I just don't think either offense is gonna have

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Speaker 2: a ton of success. Look again, I bet the unders yesterday.

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Speaker 1: It burned me.

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Speaker 2: I'm just I'm gonna come back again here primetime unders

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Speaker 2: have been a thing. Look at last night, seventeen to seven.

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Speaker 2: The final, same building could be the same score. That

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Speaker 2: would stink because we would lose the teaser unless the

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Speaker 2: Jets win. Need the Jets to win seventeen to seven.

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Speaker 2: They win, seventeen seven, were good, But it's only mice

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Speaker 2: one twenty again, hard game to bet. I won't be

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Speaker 2: stunned at all if I'm wrong. Jets plus seven and

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Speaker 2: a half under forty six and a half for mice

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Speaker 2: one twenty for one point two units, two prop bets,

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Speaker 2: and I'm only coming in here with just a little

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Speaker 2: bit over two units in play here today. Okay, guess

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Speaker 2: I go small, I turtle. I tend to be very

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Speaker 2: conservative when it comes to although I'm teasing so it's

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Speaker 2: not really conservative, But I go very conservative when it

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Speaker 2: comes to when I'm losing. I don't want to constantly

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Speaker 2: put myself out with three four five units, So only

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Speaker 2: a little over two units here. Look, Breeshall needs the football, period.

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Speaker 2: Breeshall is their best weapon.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: Wilson's great, I get it, but Wilson and Aaron Rodgers

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Speaker 2: seem to.

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Speaker 1: Have a little bit of a problem.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's because he wants Aaron Demante Adams to play

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Speaker 2: with Aaron I don't I don't know, but they're not

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Speaker 2: great together. Breece Hall needs the football. I think Breeshall

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Speaker 2: needs the football and swing passes. Breesol needs to split

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Speaker 2: out wide. They got to find ways to put the

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Speaker 2: football into Breese Hall's hand, and I think they will

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Speaker 2: do that here tonight. I'm taking brees Hall over twenty

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Speaker 2: five and a half yurs receiving for this because I

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna use him a lot. On the other side,

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen to be picked off tonight like I met

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen in his last three games in New York

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Speaker 2: against the Jets. He threw three interceptions last year, two

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Speaker 2: interceptions the year before that, in one interception the year

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Speaker 2: before that.

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Speaker 1: He's been decent throwing the football.

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Speaker 2: Sixty two point five completion percentage fifty nine point three

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Speaker 2: is not great. In the year before that, he was sorry,

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Speaker 2: no excuse me, seventy point seven. In the game he

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Speaker 2: had three picks fifty nine point two and seventy five percent.

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Speaker 2: So he's been pretty good throwing the football completion precises,

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Speaker 2: but he throws and gets picked off far too often.

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Speaker 1: He does throw the ball.

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Speaker 2: His twelve touchdowns and eleven interceptions in eleven games in

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Speaker 2: his career against the Jets, it's basically one pick per game.

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Speaker 1: It's only miss one twenty.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet it to win a half a unit

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen to get picked off here tonight by this

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Speaker 2: Jets defense. We're gonna put point six units down on

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Speaker 2: it to win a half a unit. Okay, point five

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Speaker 2: to five units down on Breise Hall to win a

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Speaker 2: half a unit over twenty five and a half yards receiving,

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Speaker 2: and the teaser is Jets plus seven and a half

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Speaker 2: in the under forty six and a half at minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty for one point two units. Feel free to

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Speaker 2: fade each and every single one of those plays. Mineus

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Speaker 2: Matt Parol to guys, and follow me across all socials

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Speaker 2: at sports Talk Matt. Every morning, it's the Delius Podcast,

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Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings.