Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Sing the best idea and on a Friday, I'll tell
Speaker 2: you the distribution For me, it's mostly through Apple. There's
Speaker 2: many other ways to get a podcast from Bloomberg podcast
Speaker 2: but just two points here. As we ramp up a
Speaker 2: new digital reality for everything I'm doing in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 2: and international relations. The first thing is out on YouTube.
Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. That's really going to be the
Speaker 2: platform forward one year, five years, ten years. The conduit,
Speaker 2: the folding of all the work that Bloomberg does every
Speaker 2: day it ends up in some form of audio file
Speaker 2: and podcast. And the other is that I'm very much
Speaker 2: focused on Apple podcasts. It's great, great distribution system, and
Speaker 2: we're just thrilled with what our team is doing there.
Speaker 2: This is an incredibly nuanced Friday. I can't say enough
Speaker 2: about almost what I call micro tensions on the Bloomberg screen,
Speaker 2: the launch pad screen, between equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, and
Speaker 2: that micro tension on an inflation basis is this raging
Speaker 2: debate about a stable inflation, some saying even higher inflation,
Speaker 2: many many remodeling in a new disinflation to come Jim
Speaker 2: Bianco has seized the high ground here. He's out of
Speaker 2: Chicago and Bianco Research. Eighteen months ago he was a
Speaker 2: lonely voice saying, don't be so certain about disinflation. We
Speaker 2: get an update from Jim Bianco.
Speaker 3: If you go to what the economists call the base effect,
Speaker 3: the numbers from last year are very low, and we're
Speaker 3: going to stay there. And that's going to be problematic
Speaker 3: for a FED that is looking for confidence to cut rates.
Speaker 3: They're going to continue to say, see sticky inflation. I
Speaker 3: think the probability is above zero that we're going to
Speaker 3: have a rate increase, but I don't think it's quite
Speaker 3: at that fifty percent level that you would expect one.
Speaker 3: But we are probably closer to that than a cut
Speaker 3: right now. The data is just not there for a cut.
Speaker 3: I mean, one payroll report that came in below expectations,
Speaker 3: it was still one hundred and seventy six thousand jobs,
Speaker 3: and that's nothing that you would look at and say,
Speaker 3: this economy needs more stimulus.
Speaker 4: Who to read this weekend to dovetail off Jim Bianco
Speaker 4: without question. Lindsay Piegg's at Stifel, also out in the Midwest.
Speaker 4: His adamant about the rationalizing I should say of a
Speaker 4: rate increase. I can't say enough how lonely Bianco and
Speaker 4: Piegsa are versus the zeitgeist of a new disinflation off
Speaker 4: of oh, declining real estate prices and this, that and
Speaker 4: the other thing. Taylor Swift tickets in Paris. They're not
Speaker 4: declining and they're not part of the disinflationary trend. I
Speaker 4: want to take some time here. I can't say enough
Speaker 4: about how you have a theory or a belief and
Speaker 4: there's a jump condition changed. There's a whole thing called
Speaker 4: economic epistemology that talks about this. George Soros has been
Speaker 4: very eloquent on it, out of Popper at LC in
Speaker 4: the early fifties and onward. And don't want to go
Speaker 4: into that right now, but you can have a jump
Speaker 4: condition in thought. Decades ago, there was a company called
Speaker 4: stern Stewart in a one volume book on economic value,
Speaker 4: added that it didn't so much change the dialogue, but
Speaker 4: began a dialogue over the silliness of what business media
Speaker 4: does every day, which earnings, what a revenue is going
Speaker 4: to do? What's gross to marts? Oh my god, ebit
Speaker 4: dah I can't believe it. And basically what EVA said
Speaker 4: economic value added was it's all hot air. You need
Speaker 4: to look at the net operating profits after Texas, figure
Speaker 4: out your own individual capital analysis and capital deployed and
Speaker 4: capital allocation of a company. And there's a number of
Speaker 4: different ratios here. And it's worth the subscription to a
Speaker 4: Bloomberg terminal to go say Apple AAPL equity WACC the
Speaker 4: way that average cost of capital screen WACC of the
Speaker 4: Bloomberg is literally worth Why you buy a Bloomberg. It's
Speaker 4: just that good. And the answer is this is a
Speaker 4: whole science onto its own. And Craig Sterling was at
Speaker 4: the advent of this with EVA Dimensions working at Credit
Speaker 4: Suitees and now to Monday. This is one of the
Speaker 4: highlights of what we've been doing on single best idea,
Speaker 4: Craig Sterling here on if you don't allocate capital in
Speaker 4: a good and constructive way, you are toast.
Speaker 5: Most companies are being run very capital efficient. You know,
Speaker 5: investors are not le letting them do things in the
Speaker 5: past that may have destroyed returns on capital and hurt
Speaker 5: future growth and ultimately their save price. Companies are being
Speaker 5: well run. Not all, but the ones that aren't. We
Speaker 5: see activists come in and I think you're seeing these
Speaker 5: companies well run in analog semis. You know, this is
Speaker 5: an industry that is generally well run. It's gotten more
Speaker 5: concentrated in recent decade or so. So you've got the
Speaker 5: winners that have done a good job. And you know,
Speaker 5: you look at a company or an industry like chemicals
Speaker 5: or energy, which have not been great stewards of capital
Speaker 5: over time, but these companies are competing way more rationally,
Speaker 5: not spending just to spend and grow, and the investors
Speaker 5: are going to start rewarding.
Speaker 4: This just a superb conversation, just what we love to do.
Speaker 4: We've had a phenomenal week at Bloomberg Surveillance. I can't
Speaker 4: I don't even know where to begin to describe on
Speaker 4: the conversations because one of the highlights was Jess Meanton
Speaker 4: where their definitive analysis of sweet greens. She is the
Speaker 4: chief Surveillance SALID correspondent. No idea you could pay eighteen
Speaker 4: dollars for eleven hundred calorie salad with a name I
Speaker 4: can't pronounce. But the kids are lineup, Eric and the rest,
Speaker 4: they're all lined up out the door. Fifteen feet deep
Speaker 4: for a sweet green salad. That's my goal this week,
Speaker 4: and I'm gonna try to take a sweet green salad.
Speaker 4: We'll see if I get in the door and am
Speaker 4: able to make the order. Paul Sweeney says, you need
Speaker 4: to take a course to make an order from New York.
Speaker 4: We're on Apple car Play. We're on Android play as well.
Speaker 4: On YouTube, subscribe Bloomberg podcast search Bloomberg Podcasts. We're there
Speaker 4: with a two hour, fifty six minute replay. You'll see
Speaker 4: that out and on Apple.
Speaker 2: This is single best idea