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Speaker 1: Were joined by Jim on Neither, former Goldman Success At

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Speaker 1: Management chairman.

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Speaker 2: Jim, good to see you this morning.

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Speaker 1: I think the last when I broke this news was

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Speaker 1: in two thousand and one, was at CNBC.

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Speaker 2: It was our future, it was bright, it was radiant.

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Speaker 1: Has it really has it failed to live up to

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Speaker 1: what you ever thought it was going to be, Jim,

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Speaker 1: I mean Da Silva talks about it as being something

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Speaker 1: he wants, a stronger political and financial bricks.

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Speaker 2: Where are we in the ascendants of bricks? Jim, good morning,

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Speaker 2: good morning, Thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's not straightforward economically. The only reason why the

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Speaker 3: group is that interesting, frankly, is because of course China China,

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Speaker 3: of the four countries that I thought should be in

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Speaker 3: the acronym, didn't include South Africa, as you said as

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Speaker 3: Jensen in the report. Initially, China is the only one

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Speaker 3: that has grown more than any of the assumptions we

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Speaker 3: ever made, despite its own disappointments the last five years.

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Speaker 3: India got close, but Brazil, Russia and South Africa have

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Speaker 3: all been, particularly since twenty ten, extremely disappointing. And so

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Speaker 3: it's an uneven group. And without China and without India,

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Speaker 3: I don't think it would be that interesting at all economically,

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Speaker 3: and amongst the second thing to say is, amongst the

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Speaker 3: many complications I have going around my head about some

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Speaker 3: possible expansion is economically, none of, not many of the

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Speaker 3: countries that are applying to join are particularly large, So

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Speaker 3: I'm not quite sure what it is the China achieve.

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Speaker 3: Which takes me to the third point is ever since

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Speaker 3: they set up the political grouping and South Africa's presence,

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Speaker 3: it's been again, as Jim showed in her brief segment,

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Speaker 3: it's been very disappointing. At a minimum, you would expect

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Speaker 3: they would focus on doing something to improve their collective

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Speaker 3: growth rates, and if anything, as I sometimes tease Bricks

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Speaker 3: leaders about and their advisers, the opposite has happened, and

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Speaker 3: they've had enough difficulty trying to agree just between the

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Speaker 3: five of them. So beyond the admittedly hugely powerful symbolism,

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Speaker 3: I'm not quite sure what having a lot more countries

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Speaker 3: in there is going to achieve.

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Speaker 4: So then, Jim, what would then change your perspective on it?

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's been a lot of talk leading up

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Speaker 4: to the summit about potentially moving away from the dollar.

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Speaker 4: Could that potentially be the catalyst that changes any sort

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Speaker 4: of success future success for the Bricks grouping.

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Speaker 3: I mean, what I would really like to see is

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Speaker 3: the two big places, China and India, being a lot

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Speaker 3: serious about sharing responsibilities and having serious focus on joint initiatives.

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Speaker 3: In reality, when you get away from the stage geopolitics

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Speaker 3: of it, China and India rarely get in a room

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Speaker 3: to discuss anything. But because of the size of their

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Speaker 3: population and because of the significant size economically, if these

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Speaker 3: two countries were serious about global trade and serious about

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Speaker 3: climate change and serious about infectious disease prevention, then automatically

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Speaker 3: the bricks thing would become massive, and issues about the

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Speaker 3: dollar would follow from that. All these grandeur statements, of

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Speaker 3: which the kind of craziest is the one I think

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Speaker 3: is associated recently with Lula from Brazil about replacing the

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Speaker 3: dollar with a new currency. I mean, it's just it's

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Speaker 3: kind of madness. Really. If they are serious about trying

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Speaker 3: to pursue initiatives where each of their currencies are going

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Speaker 3: to be used more for trade between themselves, and if

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Speaker 3: it allowed to result in some opening up of their

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Speaker 3: own financial markets, then that would be a beginning of

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Speaker 3: lesser role of the dollar. But by just making these

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Speaker 3: grandiose statements, you know, it's kind of a bit meaningless

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Speaker 3: after it's gone beyond the fun and games for you

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Speaker 3: guys in the media world, to be honest.

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Speaker 4: What then, Jim would potentially I mean, as we mentioned,

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Speaker 4: there's a number of countries that are interested in potentially

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Speaker 4: being a part of this block. Are there any specific

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Speaker 4: additions to the bricks that could folster the grouping? I mean,

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Speaker 4: you mentioned China and India having significant influence. Who else

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Speaker 4: potentially could come in that could again, you know, counter

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Speaker 4: the G seven potentially.

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, I just want to make it clear,

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Speaker 3: in my opinion, what we should really see going off

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Speaker 3: from a global perspective is the existing entity which the

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Speaker 3: bricks are already part of, along with the G seven,

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Speaker 3: the G twenty should be should be given a lot

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Speaker 3: of attention by every country to be the central thing

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Speaker 3: for global governments. Having these competing things going on is

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Speaker 3: not helping anyone that the G seven, in my opinion,

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Speaker 3: is not far off being a waste of time either.

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Speaker 3: That being said, I do think the symbolism of the

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Speaker 3: bricks and any bricks expansion it is important because it

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Speaker 3: does highlight the feelings of the global self that they're

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Speaker 3: not adequately represented. And in that sense, I think if

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Speaker 3: I find myself thinking Saudi Arabia, particularly given its role

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Speaker 3: as the world's biggest swing oil producer, and of course

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Speaker 3: given its closeness historically with the United States, I think

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Speaker 3: they joining which I imagine if anybody is joining it

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Speaker 3: will include them, is a pretty big deal. And then economically,

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Speaker 3: I think the likes of Indonesia, which in some ways

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Speaker 3: is arguably the country that has the most legitimate gripe

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Speaker 3: about never being included by by me in the first place,

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Speaker 3: is obviously really important given how well they've done for

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Speaker 3: the past twenty years. I can't resist in saying, but

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Speaker 3: it being in South Africa and you being there, gen

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Speaker 3: with all all the countries about Africa being around Africa

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Speaker 3: being discussed, you know, why isn't Nigeria on the agenda.

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Speaker 3: It's already a bigger country economically than South Africa, and

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Speaker 3: it's twenty percent of Africa's population. And so even if

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Speaker 3: you get beyond the symbolism, what are the criteria for

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Speaker 3: countries that are going in and not and are not

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Speaker 3: even being considered? And it doesn't seem to me there's

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Speaker 3: been a lot of thought even given to that.

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Speaker 2: Jim, let's just pick up on the Saudi aspect.

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Speaker 1: I said in Duvie, We've just seen this major initiative.

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Speaker 1: You can criticize it, you can pillary it whatever. By

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Speaker 1: the Saidi's corraled a lot of the global scize to

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Speaker 1: meeting over the Ukraine war with Russia.

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Speaker 2: They are having their moment in.

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Speaker 1: The global political sun excuse upon in the middle of summer.

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Speaker 1: But what you said that it could be important if

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Speaker 1: SIDI comes on board into the new Development Bank. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't beef up the new Development Bank. What is it

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Speaker 1: that you would say, manas jen society coming in or

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Speaker 1: the UAE asking perhaps to become more terrible, What would change?

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Speaker 1: What would what would that change within the narrative? Would

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Speaker 1: it be the finance, the politics.

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Speaker 3: You're asking me? Yeah, yeah, I mean, I think the

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Speaker 3: most obvious thing is if they were going into it

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Speaker 3: with a regard to it being at stamptive thing for themselves.

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Speaker 3: The first thing is whether they then start actually pricing

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Speaker 3: their oil to all these buyers in local currency and

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Speaker 3: not in the dollar. And again, as some of your

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Speaker 3: leaders and followers will know, but on and off for

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Speaker 3: the best part of forty years, going all the way

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Speaker 3: back to the oil price crisis of the of the seventies.

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Speaker 3: There was taught then about oil producers pricing in something

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Speaker 3: other than the dollar. In those days, it was typically

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Speaker 3: Deutsche marks, and so that would be hugely significant if

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Speaker 3: it were true. What is interesting in this regard is,

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Speaker 3: of course the Saunders are reaching out all over the

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Speaker 3: place in the UK. Late last week there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of focus and some controlsy about it about some kind

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Speaker 3: of official or formal visit from MBJ to the UK

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Speaker 3: sin so there will be a sort of a fighting

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Speaker 3: for spoils as to whose Saudi Arabia's closest friend, I guess,

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Speaker 3: But I think along with the pricing thing, the fact

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Speaker 3: that they are such hugely important oil producers would clearly

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Speaker 3: add important conceptual weight to whatever the bricks we're going

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Speaker 3: to try and talk about going forward. But as again

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Speaker 3: as Jen touched on the start of the program, there's

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Speaker 3: a huge difference between talking about stuff and actually doing something,

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Speaker 3: and for the bricks to really start to be more effective,

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Speaker 3: irrelevant of who's in it or not, they've got to

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Speaker 3: start trying to do things rather than just meeting once

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Speaker 3: a year and making very grand symbolic statements and then

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Speaker 3: nothing of substance ever really happening.

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Speaker 2: Jim, thank you ver much for being with the set.

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Speaker 1: We didn't get to women's football, so you say, from

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Speaker 1: having to answer on more.

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Speaker 2: The next investment opportunity is to Jim naive