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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Joining us right now with Golden's success at management, Kay joins us here, you're out of London, out of Bristol. You are out of the land of central bank descent. I love when the Bank of England comes out. Everybody's angry, everybody's arguing, do you see where you sit and where you digest? Jan Hatzi is economics. Do you see a FED? It's going to become more like the Bank of England. Welcome morning. It's tough to tell at this stage.

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Speaker 3: Would be very interesting to see actually how today's meeting goes. I think give us a little bit of a flavor of what is to come. I think the market understands very clearly that you know there's going to be less forward guidance going forward, but the market still needs to figure out what that means in terms of kind of policy and reaction functions. So let's be open minded about that. But it is it is really very likely to your point, that we're going to get a little bit more volatility at the short end going forward, given the way the Fed's likely to communicate.

00:01:27
Speaker 4: Your market you're fixing car markets. I mean, it's been higher for longer. Is that the new world for you guys? Higher for longer? Here I'm looking at the ten year at four to sixty something. I mean, that's not I kind of thought the four fifty was my ceiling and then blue you guys will right past that.

00:01:43
Speaker 3: Well, there's a couple of things going on. First of all, short end rates are likely to be higher. Inflation is higher, not just in the US around the world, but inflation is higher and stickier. And then, of course, now we've got the commodity price shock that is propagating to the economy, so that lifts the shorter end of the curve. And then you know, we've got a lot of supply coming at the long end of the curve, a from fiscal so governments are issuing more. But you see it in the in the ITG market as well. You see the corporate market issue and more, particularly higher scalers at the long end, So that puts pressure.

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Speaker 4: And your Banker's been busy. Mortu is the only bankers JP Morgan Banker has been busy pumping out all this technology paper. Here. Where do you see the best value? I guess on a global scale? Is it the US market? Where do you see the value today?

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Speaker 2: So I think their pockets of value globally.

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Speaker 3: If you're thinking of the paper that's being pumped out, I think on the IG side, I think it's very important to just keep in mind that there's going to be a lot of this coming. You know, we kind of look at the numbers to about twenty thirty expectations you're going to see something like an additional one point four trillion and compare that to the eight trillion that you have in the kind of Bloomberg IG index. That's a that's a big number. So where what is the value? I think you have to says the value on an individual basis? Typically, you know what matters other details in the number of these deals, the maturities of these deals, the leases, the states in which you know some of these projects are being built. So you know, selection and getting actually into the weeds of individual deals is going to be the driver, because that the volume is gigantic, and the bondholders will be very discerning when it comes to buying this paper.

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Speaker 2: What does the signal you see in a hyperscale or priced down in some of the CDs elevation that we see when you look at technology paper, can you add those positions with new issuance or existing issuance.

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Speaker 3: Well, coming back to the point that there's going to be a lot more where this paper comes from. So one shift you've actually seen is that the risk premium that the bond market commands is going up over time. Right, So the spreads are not only wider, but the spread curve is steeper. Now that's a good thing because the market is beginning to command the right risk premium and the breakdown between your what the equity market gets. So this is the fixation.

00:04:09
Speaker 2: Okay, this is the heart of the matter. You just brilliantly said it. We've got a new steeper normal curve, and your Danny on Friday said, get used to it. This is normal. Is that where Goldman sex is. All we're doing is reverting to a normal market.

00:04:24
Speaker 3: I think I think it's likely that the issues will drive a more normal kind of issues pattern one and that will put pressure at the longer end of the curve.

00:04:32
Speaker 2: Well, that's that to me is the foundational idea. I mean the issue is is price discovery simple as.

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Speaker 4: That assets under management of g SAM. What is the total number for you guys in in wealth management or trillion dollars? Geez I remember you were running equity moneys out of Tampa, Florida back in the day. What are the macro forces here? The big economic macro forces that you guys are focused on right now? Is it? Is it global inflation? Is what's some of the issues that are really first and foremost for your portfolio mention?

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Speaker 3: So one thing we're seeing in the kind of perse q e world is a lot more differentiation. So we started maybe mentioning the Bank of England. We've we've got a Bank of England meeting actually this week. We've got Bank of Japan also coming this week. We're seeing a lot of differentiation what's priced in. It's becoming a lot more kind of volatile, particularly at the short end. So that's that's the first big thing. What drives it? Well, we're going to learn a lot more about what drives in the US today so that the reaction functions are changing. You've got the task force in particularly in the US that will look at a lot of the kind of fundamentals and frameworks as to what's driving Do you.

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Speaker 2: See anything done? I mean, what do they call it task force in England? Why why do they call it task force? Is it called a task force? I think? Are they going to get anything done? You've got to be kidding England.

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Speaker 4: They and they figured it out exactly.

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's the way to do it, you know, like.

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Speaker 3: Consulting a little bit. It's not a bad idea, right, the world has changed.

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Speaker 2: It's okay, you know exactly, Okay, thank you so much. Kay with this consulting for Golden Sex asset managers and lunch Now in New York. We got him on a daily basis exactly. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube and.

00:06:36
Speaker 2: Why it joins us from Charlotte, North Carolina. Of course, all the work of Huntington Bank of Columbus as well. Okay, thirty three percent of active listings in Charlotte have undergone price cuts before selling. I mean there's a whole housing price dynamic involved here. Does the FED care about the housing economy within their decision today?

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Speaker 5: Right now? I don't see housing as well. There's some cuts and housing softened. I do think that that matters for the consumers, especially on the rental side. If we look at where the inflation is happening and housing, if you break out the shelter components, you can see it's not really in the rental side. It's in Funnily enough, the housing component of CPI includes hotels for example, it includes insurance, it includes all the costs of housing, and so we're seeing it there, and that's keewing more upper income. So as far as you know lower income consumers, the average consumer, I think they do care that that rents are not a big pressure right now, and for a lot of lower income households that's a really big deal on the spending side too, And I think we're seeing that in the spending data right now as well, is that those households are still spending. But I think right now, yes, the FED is obviously focused on inflation. The jobs pictures, okay, and that's partly because those households are still spending. You know, they add a pretty good tax cut coming, we had the refunds, and we've seen pretty solid spending data. In fact, all the recent spending data is skewing more lower income. Is actually growth is faster amongst lower middle income than upper income household.

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Speaker 4: So does that mean the case shaped economy, which we've talked about for so long, is that less of an issue now? It would seem that with higher inflation it would be more of an issue.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, you'd think that now. I think part of it was we probably underestimated how bad rent was back in the day for these households and how much government stimulus will was withdrawn because sometimes we're somewhat separated from that. So you's huge rental inflation and for a decent no, the CBI says, you know, your rent's roughly and housing is roughly a thirty year spending, But for a lot of households at the lower income it's fifty percent. You're talking thirty five percent of them are spending more than thirty five percent, So it's a bigger deal, and that's not a per inflationary pressure, whereas gasoline in a good year is four percent of their spending four percent.

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Speaker 2: So let it's up to five or six now, and you're so good at this, let me set up the popolarity on this. The present of the United States is worried about real estate prices in the bottom half in North Carolina because you know, his team's got to get re elected. Wall Street is worried about price increases in the Hamptons because boneie seasons are killing everybody. That's the Barbelle polarity of America. Who does Chairman warsh address today? Fancy people in the Hamptons or mere Mortals forty miles outside Charlotte who can barely get by.

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Speaker 5: I think Chair Warsh is and in general, this FED has become less focused on Wall Street over time and what the markets are doing now. Obviously the chair has spoken a bit about having the bond market lead rather than follow the FED. But the reality is when we look at their reaction function as far as the job side, the other side of the mandate, back in September they cut and the previous September they cut because what they saw was softness in the labor market that really isn't coming through when you read whether it's the Beige Book or other job reports. Really it's a fairly stable labor market. We maybe job growth has slowed a little, or maybe it was just you know, sort of some of the noise in the data. We had a bit faster job growth for three four months, and now we had kind of a softer month in July, I mean in June. So they're looking at that, but they don't really see that as an issue right now. So they see them as having one issue, and that's why the bias is towards the upside on rates. It's simply that they don't see the other side of the mandate as a problem. And so if you only see one side of the mandate as a problem, you're going to be biased towards upside on rates. At the same time, I think they see this. We see this in forecasts, not just US but other forecasters as well, is that we see inflation coming down. And so that's why we think this is an easy call today.

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Speaker 4: Okay, all right, you're at Huntington Bank. With some of your recent acquisitions, You guys are a solid kind of big regional bank. What are your customers telling you? Are your customers are they Are they coming to you guys knocking on the door looking for loans? Do they want to grow? Do they want to invest? What are you guys seeing?

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Speaker 5: Yes, I work a lot with our commercial clients. Really where the part of the organization I work with. So I'm working with companies all the time, talking to them out there all over the country. And yeah, we're we're everywhere from Houston to Jacksonville now in the South, we're out in Denver. We're a pretty large bank. We're legally a large bed now too. So what they're telling us is data centers is weirdly permeating almost any industry you wouldn't expect. And so it's something like, you know, we were talking to somebody who owned a pipeline right away, and all of a sudden, that guest pipeline right away got really valuable because all of a sudden, there's going to be a huge amount of gas generation because there's going to be a data centers, large data center being built on the other end. Or you know, somebody who makes equipment that creates aggregate, like they crush rocks for gravel.

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Speaker 2: You wouldn't think that.

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Speaker 5: Telling me thirty five forty percent of our business right now is data centers just for and almost any weird. It's it's weird how often I have that conversation. I've been rather shocked by how often I've had that conversation. And especially it's it's really in our core footprint where a lot of the data centers are happening. It's whether it's the southeast or the Midwest.

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Speaker 2: Ian, thank you so much, you know why with his chief economist wing to that bank. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube in plain.

00:12:35
Speaker 2: English, Ian Lingoln holds a high ground at BEMO Capital Markets, the Bank of Montreal ahead of US rates strategy that barely describes it. You allude lower in your note, and I've been saying this all week. The most important thing about July twenty ninth is September sixteenth, October twenty eighth December ninth, how badly does this chairman need more CPI information?

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Speaker 4: Wild card?

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Speaker 6: If he truly believes that our star is higher as a result of the data that we've seen thus far in twenty twenty six, then now's a reasonable time to start pushing policy rates higher. But if they go once, the market's going to price in another three or four And.

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Speaker 2: This is the second time this has come up in twelve hours. If they go once, why can't he release the statement and then then then the press conference say this is a one off that we did today.

00:13:27
Speaker 6: That sounds suspiciously like forward guidance. And I think that he would be reluctant to do just that because the other aspect of it is the FED gets the joke. Twenty five basis points when policy rates are where they are, really isn't going to move the needle. We also know that policy that policy changes impact the real economy with a lag. And if you're hiking twenty five basis points, now, are you really that worried about what the world's going to look like at the end of the year. It seems like a more significant policy lag is going to be for the gentleman in Pennsylvania Avenue the lag is going to wait to the first Tuesday of November.

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Speaker 4: Exactly why. I've heard this before that when the FED moves, attend to move not just one move, but multiple Why is that? Why don't they just why do they feel the need or to do two or three or four?

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Speaker 6: If you're going to do one, envision a scenario in which they go twenty five today, we wait two meetings and then they cut twenty five because the data suggested that that was the case. You have, You then have the perception of a FED that doesn't really know what's going on, and so they're responding to each incremental move. And that's why patience is such a powerful tool. By not responding to what we saw earlier this year in terms of an uptick in inflation, nor responding to June's data, the FED has an implied degree of credibility that I think they want to maintain.

00:14:52
Speaker 4: Personally, I'm a big fan of procrastination, kicking the can down the road. How does a FED think about that?

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Speaker 6: Suspect that in this environment in which Warsh is still trying to build a consensus around a lot of things, that patients will be the path of least resistance but there's also again the credibility issue. If in fact we believe that neutral is higher, we need to get back there more quickly.

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Speaker 2: I'm fascinating ian by what the bond market tells you looking at your four Bloombergs. It be most capital markets not only full faith and credit, but when you look at credit, hyperscale, credit, CDs, all of it. What does the market tell you about this moment for sharing wash.

00:15:39
Speaker 6: I think that the Chair has really established himself as a credible inflation fighter, or at least not a clear dove because of who's in the White House at the moment. That was his first meeting. He reiterated that at the semi annual Congressional testimony. And now the question is, if we really believe that the Fed is going to contain inflation over time, you don't want to buy thirty year inflation protection, which is why real thirty year yields are as high as they are. I think that's a very informative aspect of what's going on in the market right now. That also speaks to some of the hyper scale issuance or hyperscaler issuance and what that's doing to the broader bond market right now. I do think that the market is a bit a bit uncertain about the outlook, and a lot of clients and a lot of people are just taking a step back and they're letting the monetary policy situation play out right now.

00:16:34
Speaker 4: Again, I'm a big fan of just sitting on my hands here. So if I'm telling talking to the FED chairman watsh today, I would say, the market's already moved that at the ten year four to sixty two, we can we can sit on our hands here. Does that argument have any weight? Do you think?

00:16:48
Speaker 6: Well, the treasury market has been doing a fair amount of heavy lifting for the Fed. But the issue is the equity market is pushing the other direction. Financial conditions are still relatively easy overall.

00:17:01
Speaker 2: Can I stop the show? So the magic here, folks, is Paul say something smart. Ian says something smarter, and I go to the Bloomberg and actually get the picture on the terminal, I search in, I go generic thirty year and upcomes the inflation adjusted thirty year bond essentially, And of course it was two percent. It went down under zero percent during COVID and Ian, as you point out, it's moonshotted back to new hives. What is the significance of a new high two point nine percent real thirty year yield.

00:17:39
Speaker 6: I think it's a clear indication that there are a lot of reasons to be nervous about whether it is I hire our star making a local policy bond.

00:17:50
Speaker 2: Then why not get it started today and shock people when they're not expecting it.

00:17:55
Speaker 6: Actually, if he were to go, let's say, imagine he went fifty or the committee went fiftyfty or seventy five, what happens to the equity market? Pretty sharp decline presumables that would tighten financial conditions or make them less easy. That would take some of the edge off of inflation. But the issue then becomes what would the market price in? Would we see seventy five but instead price in another one hundred and fifty or two hundred most likely?

00:18:22
Speaker 4: What kind of statement? What kind of press conference are you expecting here today?

00:18:27
Speaker 6: That's a bigger wild card than has been the past. What we saw last press conference by worsh was a lot of conversation about things that could happen, and not a lot of conversation about what will happen in the near term. And that's the pulling back from forward guidance. I do think that it will I think will be a lively press conference, but I don't think that we'll have any great insight as it takes.

00:18:51
Speaker 4: Does does he have to do a press conference? Can he just say, hey, here's our statement, we're good. I mean, you hear from our fed people all the time. Does he have to do a press conferen or has that been kind of established the norms?

00:19:02
Speaker 6: Well, it's certainly established as the norm. And by not doing a press conference, that would be a clear message to the market, and it would be a volatility enhancing a message. You'd see a lot of choppy price action around that.

00:19:14
Speaker 2: People always want to know your ten year yield? Where is your US full faith and credit yield twelve months from now?

00:19:20
Speaker 6: Twelve months from now, so July twenty twenty seven. I think at this stage you're probably in the three seventy five.

00:19:29
Speaker 2: Under four percent. Yes, you are trouble.

00:19:31
Speaker 4: He is.

00:19:32
Speaker 2: I mean the contra the combo of his under four percent call on yield plus his availability of Montreal Canadian tickets at the bank. It's just it's just it's a double barrel brilliance fidling, and thank you so much. Female capital markets. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

00:19:58
Speaker 1: You're listening to the bloom Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube.

00:20:11
Speaker 2: So here's what's happening right now, y'all. Watch the World Cup and the brand I mean, the child, the offspring is trying out for soccer. Yeah, and they're like JV borderline. Maybe they'll play varsity, but they're like, mom, dad, I need the Adidas Predator Elite FT.

00:20:30
Speaker 4: Absolutely, it's what.

00:20:31
Speaker 2: You use when you control or you're striking.

00:20:33
Speaker 4: Thirty forty dollars maybe how much two.

00:20:35
Speaker 2: And eighty dollars for these? Joining us now and charge your back to school spending. Julia Wilson, who's exquisite at KPMG, on looking at the consumer and the trends, is back to school spending still a thing.

00:20:48
Speaker 7: Back to school is still a thing, and the headline number is a school spend is up six percent. But the way that I think about is you really have to unpack that, and the devil's in the detail. The average says the consumer is going to be spending more. But if I look at ten consumers and how they're thinking about it, you have basically four of those consumers are going to spend more, four of those consumers are going to spend about the same, and two of them are going to spend a little bit less, and that all nets out to about six percent. So it's really interesting to see that of those consumers there really is a discrepancy across the mix.

00:21:26
Speaker 4: We had an economist in here in your seat just about an hour ago, was that they think the K shaped economy is becoming less pronounced. Do you see that.

00:21:36
Speaker 7: It's funny because I was thinking, we're doing back to school and there's a lot of other letters in the alpha bet than K. I definitely think there is that you still see this. There's the has and the have nots, and then there's kind of the steady of the ship, which is a very large component right now of at least back to school spin, because that's not even that's not really discretionary, that's quasi utilitarian spin. But what I really like to see is when I look at the fringes of the day, So if I continue to unpack those ten consumers, there's four that are spending more. What are they really doing? Two of those consumers are making trade off, so they're going to spend less going out and dining out, and they're you know, doing things at home. They might stop to do those vacations that they were doing over the summer. There's one of those that are making sometimes kind of like not sustainable choices, like dipping into spending. But there's one and this is the one that I kind of think they're taking my survey and rolling their eyes a little bit of you know, I don't need to change my behaviors to spend more on school. So that's that's one in ten consumers saying that across tuition. So when we ask tuition hikes, there's a question in our survey about that, there's something about the soccer spend.

00:22:40
Speaker 4: So it's no joke.

00:22:41
Speaker 7: The three kits, the cleats, the shin guards, the kind of training you know of the after school enrichment activities.

00:22:48
Speaker 2: After THEO that's what athletics is called it. And it's kind of half and half.

00:22:54
Speaker 7: So we could either pay for two during or they're probably doing both. Because it's a multi select question. But you know, half of the parents that you know pay for enrichment activities.

00:23:03
Speaker 2: They're spending enrichment. We have a lot of thoughts. The biggest scam on this is I'm going to go to my school. We're going to a lacrosse camp at Disney World for a week, and an enrichment activity week at Disney World is three and a half days. You're paying for the week, yep. But all they got the enrichment, you know that, and they do it really well. I have to say they do.

00:23:28
Speaker 7: I have first hand knowledge of going to soccer tournaments.

00:23:33
Speaker 4: So what does four five gas mean for good consumer? Really? Right back there again?

00:23:39
Speaker 7: Well, it's right back there in the average you know, the last time that I was here, we were talking about gas prices and they have spiked again. The amount that the average consumer spends on gas is about what we suggest in our survey that consumers are going to spend. So for the consumers that are at the upper echelons and brackets, it's not as much of the percentage of the budget. But for those whose budge you know, is only four or five thousand dollars a month, then that really starts to hit. And that's where you see consumers buying early. So Prime Day was earlier than it's been in the past five years, and people are buying those utilitarian products, like you know, you got the core school supplies, but you also send stuff in that are personal care and hygiene. You know, you've got one backpack full of notebooks, but you have two sacks full of you know, Kleenex and all those other kinds of things. Those things are putting more stress on the bottom kind of the where it's a high.

00:24:31
Speaker 2: Is the most depressing.

00:24:32
Speaker 4: The kids are growing.

00:24:34
Speaker 2: Julia Wilson depressing us. She's principal for the Paychecks Empty Consumer and Retail Strategy KPMG. Eight thirty in the morning and in four hours I think it's a FED meeting, maybe five hours will call. That features a negative five year and the president's comments on the attack last sight, and Jordan's certainly weighing on the market. Brent crude over ninety dollars a barrel. Paul Sweening with Julia Wilson.

00:24:57
Speaker 4: So, Julia, good news is I mean, the inflations out there, it's a it's an issue, but the consumer's got a job. I mean that's the Yeah, probably the biggest part of just I would think retail sales is when we yeah, it takes sales.

00:25:11
Speaker 7: More than one exogenous shock to really bring the US consumer down. So you know, they're continuing to spend. There's nothing that's really taken a huge swath of the US consumers and taken away the paycheck, and that's where you see the retreats that we did when we had COVID, when we have any of the other major recessions. So they're continuing to spend, and they're spending begrudgingly. But we're seeing really strong earnings coming out from those four consumer companies, and I think it's a result of the resilience of the consumer.

00:25:38
Speaker 2: What do you see in uses of charge cards or what's it called pay as you go? Yeah, we as the dynamic there the kpmgc's.

00:25:46
Speaker 7: Yeah, so that that is you know, when you're talking about the consumer spending more, there's places that they can cut back and you do see that when we have one of our key graps that I love to look at is taking everything that's you know, essentials, you know, your house and your car and your groceries on one end, and things that are really non essential and the things that are dipping. The biggest or the large purchases travel the toys and electronics, although those things are kind of low. But the middle of the pack, you know, they're still spending on apparel and footwear and some of the things that you know, you can really do I need it this month or do I need it next month? So they are spending, and there are some of the consumers that are dipping into savings or putting it on credit cards. So you do see those two things slipping up. And that's where we start to say there's a little bit more softness in the consumer kind of increasingly going that direction.

00:26:33
Speaker 4: And the consumers go into the store, they're not just clicking right. There's I mean, for a while that we thought there would be no more department stores out there and the malls will be dead. But that's not all. Read.

00:26:42
Speaker 7: The nineties are back in a lot of ways. So the you know, if you look at generationally, the ones that are most time strapped are your millennials and your your gen x's, and they're the ones that are using and they have a little bit more on average, they have more money to spend on higher prices. But the youngest generations, and you have to think about the the gen alphas are. Really there's a blended back to school. They're the ones that are going off to college. They're they're they're the ones that were born. Really it's really scary to say how what years.

00:27:11
Speaker 2: You're talking about.

00:27:13
Speaker 7: As gen alphas have things that you know, they have their own credit card or spending money and so you know there's definitely ways that they can either have their own credit card or there's you know, different products that you know a parent can control.

00:27:31
Speaker 6: Yes, they you.

00:27:32
Speaker 7: Know those those kids that are those kids are stupid?

00:27:36
Speaker 2: Are you using? They are spending money at hydrate their face after soccer practice they do.

00:27:42
Speaker 7: Hydration is important. It's in one of those areas that it goes in your body or on your skin. And and sunscreen is is definitely the sun stays out longer, so so those sun products are continuing to to elevate our specialty beauty.

00:27:55
Speaker 2: This is just Julie, It's like, this is the most depressed.

00:27:58
Speaker 4: I can see my charge for my son into Ok. You I see where it eachs every day.

00:28:01
Speaker 2: You know what the fundamental thing is Room board intuition out of State at William and Mary is seventy one thousand bucks a year, and that's and that's a bargain compared to one hundred thousand at some of these schools.

00:28:13
Speaker 4: The oldest football rivalry in the South Wayman Mary and University rich And I've never been there.

00:28:19
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel lesser that I had not been to William.

00:28:23
Speaker 7: It's the two hundred and fiftieth anniversary, so Wayman Mary.

00:28:25
Speaker 4: Was that right?

00:28:26
Speaker 7: Yeah, well so we were the second oldest university.

00:28:30
Speaker 2: Julia, thank you brilliant Julia Wilson, KPMG.

00:28:33
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

00:29:00
Speaker 7: I don't know how to sid