WEBVTT - The Science Behind Interacting With Brands

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovik. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, why do people buy

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<v Speaker 1>one product over another? Why do they buy a BMW

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<v Speaker 1>versus a Tesla versus a car maybe from Ford? Or

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<v Speaker 1>why do they spend thousands of dollars on a trip

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<v Speaker 1>to Disney. Perhaps it's about a connection that they feel

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<v Speaker 1>to a brand of a company. Emblem is an agency

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<v Speaker 1>focused on what's referred to as brand intimacy, that connection

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<v Speaker 1>that people have between themselves and brands. Mario Natarelli is

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<v Speaker 1>managing partner at Emblem. Mario this Afternoon joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from New York City. Mario how are you

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<v Speaker 1>good afternoon? Doing great? Thank you? Yeah, thanks for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>We wanted to get you on the program because you've

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<v Speaker 1>got this brand intimacy study for the year two and

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<v Speaker 1>there are a lot of really familiar names on the list.

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<v Speaker 1>But I want to hear how you define brandontimacy and

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<v Speaker 1>why it's so important for companies to consider. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>thought you did a phenomenal job that, thank you. I

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<v Speaker 1>would add, yeah, I would add that I think of

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<v Speaker 1>it as the emotional science behind the brands that we

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<v Speaker 1>use and love. We know that behavioral scientists have proven

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<v Speaker 1>that emotion drives our decisions, but in marketing and in

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<v Speaker 1>many other fields, emotion is often under considered. So we've

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<v Speaker 1>been on a twelve of year journey trying to define

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<v Speaker 1>a science and method around measuring that emotion that we

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<v Speaker 1>have with the products that we use and love. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>how do you measure that emotion? I would love to know. Yeah. Well, um,

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<v Speaker 1>we started by actually looking at how people bond with

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<v Speaker 1>each other and we found some interesting patterns. And ironically,

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<v Speaker 1>we bond with brands much like we do bond with

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<v Speaker 1>each other. It's reciprocal, it's fluid, it's always evolving, and

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<v Speaker 1>the way we measure it is um. Not to get

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<v Speaker 1>overly technical, but we basically use quant and call and

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<v Speaker 1>now we're using social listening as our data sources. And

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<v Speaker 1>we observed to mass at two basic elements. One is

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<v Speaker 1>what is the characteristic of the bonds that you're forming,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's six unique patterns to those characteristics. And then

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<v Speaker 1>what's the degree of intensity? Uh, and there's three stages

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<v Speaker 1>of intensity to the way you bond with brand. That

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<v Speaker 1>formula has been evolved and tested and like I said,

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<v Speaker 1>over twelve years we've refined it where we feel like

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<v Speaker 1>it's stabilized now and that we're getting some really rich

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<v Speaker 1>and powerful insights from it. Okay, well, I'm want to

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<v Speaker 1>get to some of these names. They're on the list

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<v Speaker 1>because there there's some everything in here is someone is

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<v Speaker 1>something that someone knows. So we got Disney coming in

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<v Speaker 1>at number one, we got Apple at number three, We've

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<v Speaker 1>got Android at number nine, We've got Netflix at number eight,

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<v Speaker 1>Mercedes at number six. I'm kind of bouncing around here

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<v Speaker 1>because I want to focus on number two, which is Tesla.

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<v Speaker 1>And the reason I want to talk Tesla's because earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this week we had a story out in Bloomberg that

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<v Speaker 1>talked about how Elon Musk's antics are starting to get

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<v Speaker 1>to people who have even been you know, the most

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<v Speaker 1>die hard Tesla fans. So how do you how do

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<v Speaker 1>you get to a score of sixty seven point four

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<v Speaker 1>score for number two of Tesla given all the problems

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<v Speaker 1>that Elon Musk has found himself in and all the

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<v Speaker 1>attention that he has. Yeah, great question, And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>most of the questions we've we've received on the study

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<v Speaker 1>have been around Tesla because of the antics of Musque.

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<v Speaker 1>So this data is um pre dates Tesla's or Musk's

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<v Speaker 1>adventures with Twitter. So we would imagine if we ran

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<v Speaker 1>the data right now that there would probably be some

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<v Speaker 1>performance loss. So the Tesla ranking, I will say, that's

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<v Speaker 1>the first time that Tesla has ranked in the top

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<v Speaker 1>ten in the twelve years that we've been doing this,

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<v Speaker 1>and it essentially rocketed of the fan of the findings.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a brand that's really hitting on all cylinders

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<v Speaker 1>from a brand performance perspective. You know, people that drive Testa's,

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<v Speaker 1>if you know any really love their Testlas. You see

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<v Speaker 1>it in the language that they're using, and you see

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<v Speaker 1>it in the performance um today. Now, like I said, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>how much damage has been created in the last let's

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<v Speaker 1>say three to four months. It would be interesting to see.

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<v Speaker 1>I would suspect that it has fallen. Yeah, yeah, I

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<v Speaker 1>mean Tesla and Musk. I mean such a polarizing sort

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<v Speaker 1>of figure there. But let's talk about number one Disney,

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<v Speaker 1>and I mean when I think about the emotions attached

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<v Speaker 1>to Disney films, to the Disney parks, that seems to

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<v Speaker 1>make a lot of sense to me. Mario, Yeah, this

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<v Speaker 1>is um. What's great about brands that do very well

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<v Speaker 1>year over years that they generally do well across their

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<v Speaker 1>entire portfolio, So whether it's about retail or in their case,

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<v Speaker 1>content or their theme parks, um, etcetera. Brandon Apple is

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<v Speaker 1>another one that does very well across all demographics and

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<v Speaker 1>across all channels. What's interesting about the ask me is

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<v Speaker 1>it also is benefiting from the effects of the pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>So the more we were looking for powerful stories to

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<v Speaker 1>uplift us or uh, to drive us to a more

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<v Speaker 1>positive outlook, Disney sort of I think gained in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of that appreciation. As the world also opened and the

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<v Speaker 1>theme parks open, people were eager to take their families places,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think Disney also again um benefited from that

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<v Speaker 1>positive trend. Mario, we only have thirty seconds left. But

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<v Speaker 1>what advice would you give the companies that are not

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<v Speaker 1>high on the list that want to get there? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this is the reason we do the study. We think

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<v Speaker 1>there's uh boodles of findings and interesting things that you

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<v Speaker 1>can take from the study. Ultimately, if you think about

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<v Speaker 1>your stakeholders, all of them internal and external, and the

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<v Speaker 1>bonds that you're forming with them, you know, really try

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<v Speaker 1>to nurture them and invest in them and maintain them

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<v Speaker 1>over time. It sounds easy, it's not. It takes dedication

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<v Speaker 1>and perseverance. All right, we gotta leave it there, Mario.

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<v Speaker 1>Not a rally managing partner at Emblem, it's an agent

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<v Speaker 1>see that focuses on brand intimacy. They've got this brand

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<v Speaker 1>new brand intimacy study out. Mario, really appreciate you've taken

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<v Speaker 1>the time. He joins us on the phone from New

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<v Speaker 1>York City. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

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<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>as I mentioned, we've got Mr Laney Agafa Poulu in

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. She's personal finance reporter for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. The reason we've got her in here is

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<v Speaker 1>because she's got a Bloomberg exclusive out today. It's about

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<v Speaker 1>a sneaker head who allegedly operated a massive air Jordan's

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<v Speaker 1>Ponzi scheme. Missy, it's great to have you back with

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<v Speaker 1>us on Bloomberg Business Week. How does a Ponzi scheme

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<v Speaker 1>work when we're talking about shoes and not stocks and bonds.

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<v Speaker 1>That is a great question. And I know you mentioned

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<v Speaker 1>stocks and bonds, So I feel like we should try

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<v Speaker 1>to explain to anyone listening why we're talking about sneakers

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<v Speaker 1>right now. And I think the reason is this became

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<v Speaker 1>a massive asset class that all the people started trading

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<v Speaker 1>during the pandemic. A lot of people were at home,

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<v Speaker 1>they had nothing to do. If they could get their

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<v Speaker 1>hands on sneakers whose price would go up uh later on,

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<v Speaker 1>you know in the year, they could buy them, sell

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<v Speaker 1>them for higher make money off of it. So a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people sitting at home with you know, those

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<v Speaker 1>um COVID checks, Stimmy's ready to spend money. We're really

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<v Speaker 1>trying to find ways to get access to these really

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<v Speaker 1>highly coveted sneakers, and this company in Oregon, Zade Kicks,

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<v Speaker 1>promised them what their dream scenario could be access to

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<v Speaker 1>these sneakers that were extremely hard to get, like you

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<v Speaker 1>would have to wait in line to get them in

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<v Speaker 1>normal stores or pay for them in the resale market

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<v Speaker 1>for like hundreds of hundreds of dollars for what they

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<v Speaker 1>go for. So they'd offer these sneakers at a discounted price, um,

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<v Speaker 1>a few weeks after they were dropping. And so what

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<v Speaker 1>this man did is essentially sell shoes that he didn't have,

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<v Speaker 1>and so these customers started buying up these shoes. There's

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<v Speaker 1>a great example in the indictment from the federal government

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<v Speaker 1>about how he sold six hundred thousand pairs of Nike

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<v Speaker 1>Air door in but he only had six thousand pairs

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<v Speaker 1>in stock. This is what prosecutors are alleging, right, this

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<v Speaker 1>is what prosecutors are alleging. He's actually showing up an

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<v Speaker 1>Oregan court as we speak, Um, he is going to

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<v Speaker 1>plead not guilty to sort of running this scam of

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<v Speaker 1>an operation. Who you know a lot of it sort

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<v Speaker 1>of comes back to the pandemic again, because what federal

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<v Speaker 1>authorities are saying is this guy has been around since

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<v Speaker 1>he has been running this business where he's selling shoes.

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<v Speaker 1>When things went really south was during the pandemic again,

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<v Speaker 1>because he saw this surge of demand from people wanting

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<v Speaker 1>access to these sneakers um and I think he started

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<v Speaker 1>taking orders without necessarily realizing that he would never actually

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<v Speaker 1>be able to get these orders to people. And so

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<v Speaker 1>we have a lot of victims on the record saying

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<v Speaker 1>that they've lost thousands of dollars by sneakers that they

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<v Speaker 1>put money in for but never arrived. And how did

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<v Speaker 1>this unravel? What led authorities to this sneaker ponzi scheme

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<v Speaker 1>as it appears to be so, I think that authorities

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<v Speaker 1>had seen this happened, they were monitoring the situation. What

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<v Speaker 1>the lawyers for the man behind the company told us

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<v Speaker 1>is that he actually turned himself into authorities back in

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<v Speaker 1>May because he realized that everything had gotten out of

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<v Speaker 1>control and he owed so much money to people that

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<v Speaker 1>he couldn't really pull back, and so the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>he essentially turned himself in and surrendered and dissolved his company.

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<v Speaker 1>And now he's going through the bankruptcy process where he's

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<v Speaker 1>trying to essentially get people's money back to them. But

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<v Speaker 1>of course we all know that, you know, there's people

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<v Speaker 1>here who might never really get their money back. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so what's this guy like. We're talking about someone you

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<v Speaker 1>describe as a Lamborghini loving sneaker head. What's he like? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so again, sold a ton of sneakers that he didn't have.

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<v Speaker 1>Back to that example of the six hundred thousand Nike

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<v Speaker 1>Air Jordan's that he sold. Um, he made seventy millions

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<v Speaker 1>off of that, and according to the indictment, federal authorities

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<v Speaker 1>state that he was spending it on really expensive cars Lamborghini's, Porchet's,

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<v Speaker 1>Mercedes Ferraris, but also all of the luxury goods that's

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<v Speaker 1>one can imagine, like Louis Betton purses fors jewelry and

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<v Speaker 1>watches that caused up to six thousand dollars UM. And

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<v Speaker 1>what's also very interesting is he did not keep that quiet.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you look at his social media, his

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<v Speaker 1>Instagram was, you know, full of evidence that this guy

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<v Speaker 1>was living a very lavish lifestyle, assuming you know, from

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<v Speaker 1>the sort of profits he can make out of this

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<v Speaker 1>out of this company. And of course, like you said,

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<v Speaker 1>he's an appearing in court as we speak. But what

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<v Speaker 1>is he exactly being charged with and what could a

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<v Speaker 1>possible sentence look like? So he's UM being charged with

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<v Speaker 1>wire fraud, conspiracy to commit bank fraud because he also

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<v Speaker 1>UM provided a lot of false statements to banks to

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<v Speaker 1>get funding that UM we're based on falsified information and

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<v Speaker 1>also money laundering. And so he's facing as much as

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<v Speaker 1>thirty years if convicted UM on the most serious count,

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<v Speaker 1>which again is conspiracy to commit bank fraud. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>we got thirty seconds left, Missy. What are customers you

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<v Speaker 1>spoke you're saying? I mean, I think this is what's

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting about this story is like they made a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of money from this company because they were still

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<v Speaker 1>able to get some sneakers flip them and really just

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<v Speaker 1>double and triple their investments. But I do think a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of them are facing like hundreds of thousands of

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<v Speaker 1>credit card debt because that is where they would charge

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<v Speaker 1>these sneakers is across level of credit cards. And what

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<v Speaker 1>they're doing is they're trying to go to credit card

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<v Speaker 1>companies and essentially file chargeback claims to get some of

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<v Speaker 1>their money back. Some of them are succeeding, some of

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<v Speaker 1>them are not UM, but all in all just all

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<v Speaker 1>of them sort of looking at this trial and hoping

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<v Speaker 1>to see something positive come out of it. Mr Lanny Gaffapulu,

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<v Speaker 1>personal finance reporter for Bloomberg News. This is an exclusive story.

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<v Speaker 1>It's on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>It's about a sneaker head allegedly operating a massive air

0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:47.360
<v Speaker 1>Jordan Ponzi scheme. Be sure to check it out. This

0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:51.360
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:55.719
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Katie Greifeld and I

0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:57.560
<v Speaker 1>have been in here chatting about what it's like to

0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:00.760
<v Speaker 1>be a manager. And you know what, spoiler alert, neither

0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:03.800
<v Speaker 1>of us are managers. Know somehow, I'm not in charge

0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:07.560
<v Speaker 1>of a single person other than myself. It's probably a

0:12:07.559 --> 0:12:09.640
<v Speaker 1>good thing for both of us. I know, it's a

0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.120
<v Speaker 1>lot of work. It's really interesting because it's something that

0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.040
<v Speaker 1>Julie Jaal writes about. She's the co founder of In

0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:16.920
<v Speaker 1>Spirit and also the author of the new book The

0:12:16.960 --> 0:12:20.439
<v Speaker 1>Making of a Manager, What to Do When Everyone looks

0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.080
<v Speaker 1>to You. Julie joins us this afternoon from the Bay

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Area out west. Julie, how are you I'm doing great.

0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:29.640
<v Speaker 1>How are you all doing. We're doing well. Thanks. Um.

0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.920
<v Speaker 1>Take us back to your mid twenties and when you

0:12:33.000 --> 0:12:35.000
<v Speaker 1>got this promotion and you became a manager. That is

0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:39.400
<v Speaker 1>sort of the genesis of this book. So I was

0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 1>years old. I had just joined a scrappy startup three

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:47.679
<v Speaker 1>years prior. It was a little college social networking at

0:12:47.720 --> 0:12:54.520
<v Speaker 1>the time. Facebook heard of it multily for me, you know,

0:12:54.679 --> 0:12:56.880
<v Speaker 1>to start ups grew and grew, and so within a

0:12:56.920 --> 0:12:59.439
<v Speaker 1>couple of years we had added a lot more people,

0:12:59.600 --> 0:13:01.960
<v Speaker 1>and so I was one of the early people there.

0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:04.280
<v Speaker 1>One day, my manager turned to me and said, you know,

0:13:04.320 --> 0:13:06.600
<v Speaker 1>we have four new designers joining next week, and I

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.800
<v Speaker 1>don't have time to meet with them. Why don't you

0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.960
<v Speaker 1>be their manager? And at this point, you know, I

0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>had no training at this about how to lead, how

0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:18.239
<v Speaker 1>to manage. But yet I found myself in this situation

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.360
<v Speaker 1>needing to ramp up new people and help our team grow.

0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 1>And this is a very common story in Silicon Valley

0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:28.480
<v Speaker 1>or in any context where a small team starts to

0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.360
<v Speaker 1>take on bigger and bigger goals. Uh. And that is

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:35.720
<v Speaker 1>how I found myself in that role. Um, without that preparation,

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.920
<v Speaker 1>I made every single mistake in the book about learning

0:13:38.960 --> 0:13:42.359
<v Speaker 1>how it is to manage and lead people, And ultimately,

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.199
<v Speaker 1>some years later I decided to write all that down

0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:48.280
<v Speaker 1>and um hopefully make it seem like I'm having a

0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.160
<v Speaker 1>coffee chat with somebody else finding themselves in that situation.

0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:53.440
<v Speaker 1>And so, I mean, if you could go back in

0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:57.320
<v Speaker 1>time and talk to younger Julie Newly in that situation,

0:13:57.880 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 1>what would you say? What would be the main bullet

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:05.120
<v Speaker 1>point there? The most important thing I would tell somebody

0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 1>in that situation here is what the job of a

0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 1>manager is. Because here's the thing. We grow up, we

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 1>watch movies. We have a sense of like, what does

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 1>the boss do right? And we think about the boss

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 1>as the person who makes decisions, the person who hires

0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 1>and fires people, the person who gets to tell everyone

0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:24.240
<v Speaker 1>else you know, what's right and how things go. And

0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 1>the reality is, in my experience, like, that's not really

0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:30.200
<v Speaker 1>what great managers do. So the first thing I wanted

0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 1>from to understand is what exactly is the job of management?

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:37.040
<v Speaker 1>And very simply I define it as the manager's job

0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:40.040
<v Speaker 1>is to help a group of people be able to

0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.520
<v Speaker 1>achieve more together. So how do they do that right?

0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.760
<v Speaker 1>How do they actually get a group of talented people

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 1>to achieve more together. There are three main levels that

0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.880
<v Speaker 1>a manager has. The first is people. You know, you

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.360
<v Speaker 1>need to bring in talented people who have the skills

0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 1>to be able to do what the group wants to

0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.840
<v Speaker 1>do together. The second is process us. So do you

0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:03.200
<v Speaker 1>have all of these great people okay? How should they

0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:05.400
<v Speaker 1>work together? You know? How do they come up with

0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 1>new ideas? How do they resolve disagreement? Who should do what?

0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 1>You know? How does their work get divided? And finally, purpose,

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:16.360
<v Speaker 1>which is defining what does success look like for this

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:18.320
<v Speaker 1>group of people? How do we know what a good

0:15:18.400 --> 0:15:20.800
<v Speaker 1>job is? How do we know what a great job is?

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.280
<v Speaker 1>How do we know what a mediocre job is? All

0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:26.760
<v Speaker 1>that has to be shared in terms of all of

0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:29.840
<v Speaker 1>the members on the team in order for this to

0:15:29.840 --> 0:15:32.720
<v Speaker 1>two team to go on and do great things. I'm

0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 1>wondering about people who may not be managers yet and

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 1>may not even aspire to be managers. And how you know,

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>we talked about this idea of managing up and the

0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.080
<v Speaker 1>idea of working with your bosses in a way that

0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.760
<v Speaker 1>is productive. What advice do you have for people in

0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:52.200
<v Speaker 1>those situations? The most important advice I have for somebody

0:15:52.360 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>when they think about managing up is make sure you

0:15:55.800 --> 0:15:59.880
<v Speaker 1>know these two things. Make sure that your manager knows

0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:04.280
<v Speaker 1>what you aspire for, what your goals. Goals are in

0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:06.880
<v Speaker 1>your career. Do you want to get a promotion, do

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:08.440
<v Speaker 1>you want to manage when did? Do you want to

0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:11.040
<v Speaker 1>take on big projects? Or or you know, are you

0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.000
<v Speaker 1>very happy doing what you're doing? You know what kind

0:16:14.040 --> 0:16:16.080
<v Speaker 1>of projects are you excited to take on? What kind

0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.600
<v Speaker 1>of challenges are meaningful, and what kind of things you

0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:21.880
<v Speaker 1>hate doing? Make sure your manager understands that, right, So

0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:27.000
<v Speaker 1>ask yourselves, does my manager understand what my aspirations are,

0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>what my strengths are, what my weaknesses are, and if not,

0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.160
<v Speaker 1>go ahead and tell them right, tell them in a

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:34.880
<v Speaker 1>one on what make sure they know. And the second

0:16:34.960 --> 0:16:38.480
<v Speaker 1>question is do you want to understand what success for

0:16:38.640 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 1>my manager looks like in regards to what I can

0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:44.440
<v Speaker 1>do to help them? Because if you don't feel like

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:48.880
<v Speaker 1>you know what your manager is aspiring for in regards

0:16:49.440 --> 0:16:51.240
<v Speaker 1>to the team that you're a part of, or what

0:16:51.400 --> 0:16:53.840
<v Speaker 1>success for you looks like, you know you're gona be

0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:56.440
<v Speaker 1>basically talking past each other. So both of these things

0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:59.640
<v Speaker 1>need to be true. And if they're not clear. That's

0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:01.920
<v Speaker 1>what you know. Time with the manager in one on

0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:04.440
<v Speaker 1>one setting is for right. Make sure they understand your goal,

0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:07.640
<v Speaker 1>make sure you understand their goals. And Julie, what would

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:11.280
<v Speaker 1>you say, not necessarily to a new manager entering a situation,

0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:15.960
<v Speaker 1>but a manager that maybe has already had some struggles

0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:19.160
<v Speaker 1>with their team, with their reports, who has you know,

0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:23.000
<v Speaker 1>maybe lost faith. How do you rebuild that sort of

0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:28.200
<v Speaker 1>trust there? It's super critical that managers have the trust

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:31.720
<v Speaker 1>with their team. And you know, everyone makes mistakes. I've

0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.880
<v Speaker 1>certainly made many as a manager, and in those cases,

0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:38.639
<v Speaker 1>what helped me the most was being able to admit

0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:42.800
<v Speaker 1>my own vulnerability and uh and and come clean with people. Right.

0:17:43.359 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 1>The thing is a lot of times managers have immense

0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:48.639
<v Speaker 1>pressure on them. You know, they might think I'm the

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.119
<v Speaker 1>manager of the boss, I'm the person who should have

0:17:51.200 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>all the answers. But that's just too high of an

0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.480
<v Speaker 1>expectation to have on anyone. There's no single person to

0:17:57.560 --> 0:17:59.920
<v Speaker 1>company who should feel like they have the answers to

0:18:00.000 --> 0:18:02.240
<v Speaker 1>every single problem. That's why we have a team, That's

0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.639
<v Speaker 1>why people come together to work on big problems. And

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 1>so in the cases in which you know, as a manager,

0:18:08.359 --> 0:18:12.080
<v Speaker 1>you made the wrong call, something happened. Just to own it.

0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.479
<v Speaker 1>Just admit that there was a mistake, you know that

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.280
<v Speaker 1>you made You thought certain things. It didn't happen the

0:18:18.280 --> 0:18:22.680
<v Speaker 1>way they expected and complete and ask for help. Ask

0:18:22.800 --> 0:18:25.080
<v Speaker 1>the team, Hey, you know, this is one of the

0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:27.240
<v Speaker 1>things that we need to do together as a team.

0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:30.320
<v Speaker 1>I don't have all the answers. I would like ideas

0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:32.440
<v Speaker 1>from all of you. What do you think we should do.

0:18:33.000 --> 0:18:35.400
<v Speaker 1>The best thing I've found for myself as a manager,

0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:38.680
<v Speaker 1>the thing that gave me both a lot more impact

0:18:38.880 --> 0:18:41.160
<v Speaker 1>but also a lot more power, is to be able

0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:46.679
<v Speaker 1>to leverage the expertise and the wonderful talent among the

0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.879
<v Speaker 1>people on my team. Julie Joe, we got to leave it.

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.639
<v Speaker 1>Their co founder at the advisory Firm in Spirit. It's

0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:57.360
<v Speaker 1>an organization that partners with tech companies to help scale

0:18:57.400 --> 0:19:01.400
<v Speaker 1>and build products. Julie also spent years at Facebook, where

0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:03.960
<v Speaker 1>she helped build the app into one that's used by

0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 1>more than a billion people. She's the author of the

0:19:06.359 --> 0:19:09.119
<v Speaker 1>new book The Making of a Manager, What to Do

0:19:09.320 --> 0:19:12.240
<v Speaker 1>When Everyone looks to You. Joining us this afternoon from

0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:16.280
<v Speaker 1>the Bay Area in California. Julie, thanks so much for

0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:24.120
<v Speaker 1>taking the time a journal. Yeah, but you let me drive?

0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:30.560
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, who's honey? Please gravels let me.

0:19:30.920 --> 0:19:39.280
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive. It's good question. This is the

0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:47.240
<v Speaker 1>drive to the Globe on Bluebird Radio. All right, we

0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:49.960
<v Speaker 1>got lesson ten minutes to go, and as Charlie mentioned,

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:52.479
<v Speaker 1>we've got a rally underway. Taking a look at the

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:54.359
<v Speaker 1>S and P five hundred up one point eight percent,

0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:56.600
<v Speaker 1>the nasdack up two point eight percent. Let's get into

0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.399
<v Speaker 1>it with Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern at

0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:01.760
<v Speaker 1>Trust Wealth Management. Katie joins us on the phone from

0:20:02.200 --> 0:20:05.760
<v Speaker 1>right just outside of New York City. Katie, how are you? Um? Great?

0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:07.920
<v Speaker 1>How are you? We're doing pretty well. What we're trying

0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:10.639
<v Speaker 1>to figure out is whether or not this equity market

0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:13.040
<v Speaker 1>has gotten ahead of itself, given what we're hearing from

0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:17.000
<v Speaker 1>FED officials, because it sounds like they're saying it has well,

0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:19.320
<v Speaker 1>it's been I mean, as you have started off the segment,

0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:21.960
<v Speaker 1>that's been a crazy day in the market today, a

0:20:22.119 --> 0:20:25.200
<v Speaker 1>huge risk on rally here in particular with the riskiest

0:20:25.200 --> 0:20:28.159
<v Speaker 1>areas of the market. The nastack up so strongly, and

0:20:28.359 --> 0:20:30.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think we came into this really with

0:20:30.920 --> 0:20:34.800
<v Speaker 1>with such low sentiment, with such a negative positioning that

0:20:34.840 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 1>we were due for a nice bounce like we've seen

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:38.840
<v Speaker 1>last week and sort of into this week. But I

0:20:38.840 --> 0:20:40.560
<v Speaker 1>think you asked the right question, which is is it

0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.520
<v Speaker 1>sustainable in the phase of a bed that appears to

0:20:43.560 --> 0:20:47.360
<v Speaker 1>be hell bent on not stopping not stopping um? And

0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:49.960
<v Speaker 1>that's certainly where what we're looking at right now as well.

0:20:50.000 --> 0:20:52.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, how far will the said go um, and

0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:57.000
<v Speaker 1>how will markets be able to digest how the final destination?

0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:01.200
<v Speaker 1>And Katie, I mean, I'm sure you've heard this one before.

0:21:01.440 --> 0:21:04.560
<v Speaker 1>Don't fight the Fed, And just you know, thinking about

0:21:04.600 --> 0:21:07.320
<v Speaker 1>what we've heard in the past forty eight hours or

0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.680
<v Speaker 1>so from Feed officials looking at a one point eight

0:21:10.680 --> 0:21:13.520
<v Speaker 1>percent rally on the sp Now, is that not kind

0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:16.560
<v Speaker 1>of the definition of fighting the Fed? It really is,

0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:18.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, the if you think about it, the stock

0:21:18.960 --> 0:21:20.880
<v Speaker 1>market and the bond market are both fighting the Fed

0:21:21.000 --> 0:21:23.919
<v Speaker 1>right now. Um. And it's really I think a function

0:21:23.920 --> 0:21:27.119
<v Speaker 1>of the fact that we're all data dependent and the

0:21:27.160 --> 0:21:29.480
<v Speaker 1>market is interpreting some of the data as suggesting that

0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 1>growth is slowing down here, but so is inflation. So

0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the market is basically saying to the Fed, you're not

0:21:36.160 --> 0:21:38.120
<v Speaker 1>going to have to go as far as you think

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 1>you do. Um and also you might have to start

0:21:41.080 --> 0:21:43.720
<v Speaker 1>reversing course much sooner than you think you have to. Now,

0:21:44.240 --> 0:21:46.840
<v Speaker 1>Be that as it may, the Fed, the Feed officials

0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.159
<v Speaker 1>that are coming out with all of this sort of

0:21:49.160 --> 0:21:51.680
<v Speaker 1>hawkish sentiment are doing exactly what they should be doing.

0:21:51.760 --> 0:21:55.480
<v Speaker 1>They cannot afford to show any signs of capitulation or

0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:59.359
<v Speaker 1>weakness right here. They have to keep consistently telling the

0:21:59.400 --> 0:22:01.520
<v Speaker 1>market that they going to focus on inflation so that

0:22:01.560 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 1>they can maintain that all important credibility. And it's I mean,

0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:07.520
<v Speaker 1>it's kind of interesting to me that if you look

0:22:07.560 --> 0:22:11.640
<v Speaker 1>at break even inflation expectations, for example, they have come

0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:14.480
<v Speaker 1>down quite a lot. I mean, it feels like that

0:22:15.040 --> 0:22:18.399
<v Speaker 1>in and of itself is a vote of confidence in

0:22:18.440 --> 0:22:21.000
<v Speaker 1>the Fed. But again, you just try to marry that

0:22:21.080 --> 0:22:23.639
<v Speaker 1>with what's happening in the equity markets. I mean, what

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:26.960
<v Speaker 1>what is driving sort of this big rally that has

0:22:27.000 --> 0:22:30.160
<v Speaker 1>been going on for well over a month now. Well,

0:22:30.200 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 1>I think you hit the nail on the head about

0:22:31.760 --> 0:22:34.560
<v Speaker 1>inflation expectations. And that's kind of to my point earlier

0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:36.800
<v Speaker 1>that you know, investors are telling you said they won't

0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:39.479
<v Speaker 1>have to go as far as they think they need

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:41.879
<v Speaker 1>to go because inflation is coming off the boil. We

0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:43.600
<v Speaker 1>have seen that through some of the p m I

0:22:43.720 --> 0:22:46.840
<v Speaker 1>data with the prices paid. We've seen that clearly in

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:50.280
<v Speaker 1>the commodity complex, not just the energy market, but across

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:53.440
<v Speaker 1>other areas of the commodity complex. So I think you're

0:22:53.520 --> 0:22:58.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of seeing this broadly based plateau going, if not falling,

0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:00.800
<v Speaker 1>in the inflation data, and I think it's giving market

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:04.399
<v Speaker 1>the confidence to fight the Fed. Okay, so, Katie, I

0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:07.280
<v Speaker 1>want to talk more about the overall economy. Obviously, the

0:23:07.280 --> 0:23:10.960
<v Speaker 1>market not the economy, but the two are certainly interconnected.

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:15.400
<v Speaker 1>Are we in a recession right now? Oh? No, that's

0:23:15.440 --> 0:23:17.600
<v Speaker 1>the six or four thousand dollar question. You're right, market

0:23:17.640 --> 0:23:20.560
<v Speaker 1>is not the economy, but certainly they do. Rhyme um.

0:23:21.080 --> 0:23:23.119
<v Speaker 1>I'll jump in the camp with with the most that

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:25.439
<v Speaker 1>say we might be in a technical recession, but I

0:23:25.480 --> 0:23:27.359
<v Speaker 1>think for it to be a true recession, you need

0:23:27.400 --> 0:23:30.320
<v Speaker 1>to see much more broad weakness, and we just haven't

0:23:30.359 --> 0:23:32.720
<v Speaker 1>seen it. Friday is going to be a super important

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:34.760
<v Speaker 1>day to see what the job's data shows us, and

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:37.960
<v Speaker 1>we do expect some weakening, but we still anticipate that

0:23:37.960 --> 0:23:39.840
<v Speaker 1>we're going to be in this healthy labor market for

0:23:39.880 --> 0:23:42.600
<v Speaker 1>the foreseeable future. So it's really hard to argue that

0:23:42.640 --> 0:23:45.240
<v Speaker 1>we're in a recession when you have such low unemployment.

0:23:46.040 --> 0:23:48.240
<v Speaker 1>And Katie, I mean, I've got to get your thoughts

0:23:48.280 --> 0:23:50.359
<v Speaker 1>on the bond market because I look at the bench

0:23:50.680 --> 0:23:53.679
<v Speaker 1>mark ten year treasury yield and the moves have just

0:23:53.760 --> 0:23:58.879
<v Speaker 1>been amazing. I mean, seventeen eighteen basis points yesterday, another

0:23:59.240 --> 0:24:01.840
<v Speaker 1>sort of reach Eastman today, but a lot of choppiness.

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:04.040
<v Speaker 1>And that's just this huge rally that we saw over

0:24:04.080 --> 0:24:07.000
<v Speaker 1>the past month. I mean, you compare that to the

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:09.760
<v Speaker 1>equity market. Sure we've seen big moves, but it feels

0:24:09.760 --> 0:24:12.640
<v Speaker 1>like the bond market though, it's just hanging on every

0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:15.800
<v Speaker 1>single word, every single data point. What do you make

0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:17.440
<v Speaker 1>of some of the whips all that we've seen there.

0:24:18.359 --> 0:24:21.080
<v Speaker 1>I think, unfortunately, we're gonna have to get used to it.

0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:24.880
<v Speaker 1>We're going to continue to see volatility within range um

0:24:24.880 --> 0:24:26.840
<v Speaker 1>in the bond market. And you know, our view is

0:24:26.920 --> 0:24:29.480
<v Speaker 1>that we've probably seen at or close to the highs

0:24:29.480 --> 0:24:32.040
<v Speaker 1>and the tenure. We have sort of a central tendency

0:24:32.119 --> 0:24:34.600
<v Speaker 1>for the ten year around three percent um. But as

0:24:34.640 --> 0:24:36.920
<v Speaker 1>you can see as it creeps up toward that toward

0:24:37.000 --> 0:24:39.640
<v Speaker 1>that level, it quickly comes comes back down as as

0:24:39.880 --> 0:24:42.959
<v Speaker 1>investors longer term investors longer at the duration curve are

0:24:42.960 --> 0:24:47.560
<v Speaker 1>anticipating much slower economy and also much less aggressive fed.

0:24:48.119 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>That's what you're seeing priced into bonds right now. But

0:24:51.119 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 1>it's not. It's interesting because it's not a recessionary forecast

0:24:53.600 --> 0:24:55.879
<v Speaker 1>because you look at some of the credit indicators and

0:24:55.880 --> 0:24:58.240
<v Speaker 1>they are certainly not flashing red in terms of being

0:24:58.600 --> 0:25:01.160
<v Speaker 1>concerned about there being an kind of a deep recession

0:25:01.240 --> 0:25:03.200
<v Speaker 1>or any kind of a credit event. So it's very

0:25:03.240 --> 0:25:06.960
<v Speaker 1>interesting time. It is interesting, and it's hard to untangle

0:25:07.040 --> 0:25:09.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of the different relationships that are at play right now.

0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:12.439
<v Speaker 1>But Katie, I am curious what you read on it

0:25:12.920 --> 0:25:16.280
<v Speaker 1>as to which market is leading which right now? Is

0:25:16.320 --> 0:25:19.880
<v Speaker 1>it bonds leading stocks, is it stocks leading bonds, or

0:25:20.119 --> 0:25:22.479
<v Speaker 1>are both as a classes sort of marching to their

0:25:22.480 --> 0:25:25.280
<v Speaker 1>own drums. Right now you're a bit marched into their

0:25:25.280 --> 0:25:27.920
<v Speaker 1>own drums because um kind of contrary to what we

0:25:28.000 --> 0:25:31.040
<v Speaker 1>said before where the economy it rhymes with the market,

0:25:31.040 --> 0:25:33.360
<v Speaker 1>what we've seen is this dissidence where we have had

0:25:33.400 --> 0:25:36.720
<v Speaker 1>actually pretty strong earnings growth in the face of a

0:25:36.840 --> 0:25:39.919
<v Speaker 1>technical recession, which is kind of unusual. Um but it

0:25:39.960 --> 0:25:41.760
<v Speaker 1>does show you that at this point in time things

0:25:41.800 --> 0:25:44.720
<v Speaker 1>are a bit discombobulated, where we have had surprising strength

0:25:44.760 --> 0:25:47.000
<v Speaker 1>and earnings despite the fact that we have a macro

0:25:47.119 --> 0:25:50.199
<v Speaker 1>outlook that's that's certainly dimmed. Um. So I think stocks

0:25:50.200 --> 0:25:52.119
<v Speaker 1>are kind of heaving a sigh of relief here that

0:25:52.200 --> 0:25:55.239
<v Speaker 1>the recession story is not playing out in earnings, and

0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:57.920
<v Speaker 1>bonds are telling you the go forward view it is

0:25:58.000 --> 0:26:01.120
<v Speaker 1>just slower, okay. So the bonds bond story is telling

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:02.840
<v Speaker 1>us that, okay, growth is going to be there, but

0:26:02.880 --> 0:26:06.840
<v Speaker 1>it's slower. Yes, that's exactly what it's saying. And the

0:26:06.920 --> 0:26:08.919
<v Speaker 1>equity markets are kind of catching up to what had

0:26:08.960 --> 0:26:12.600
<v Speaker 1>been almost an uber bearers sentiment coming into July, where

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:14.840
<v Speaker 1>there were lots and lots of concerns about about the

0:26:14.880 --> 0:26:18.479
<v Speaker 1>second quarter earnings period being much worse than analysts expected.

0:26:18.520 --> 0:26:21.600
<v Speaker 1>As we're seeing it's actually surprising on the upside, quite

0:26:21.600 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the rally that we're seeing today. I mean, look, the

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:27.520
<v Speaker 1>NASDAC up two point seven percent as we speak. Katie Nixon,

0:26:27.560 --> 0:26:30.600
<v Speaker 1>chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management, joining us

0:26:30.600 --> 0:26:34.320
<v Speaker 1>this afternoon from Rye, New York. Thanks for listening to

0:26:34.359 --> 0:26:37.919
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or

0:26:37.960 --> 0:26:40.119
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