1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovik. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: clus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 5 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,560 Speaker 1: analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 7 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two 9 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 10 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Well, why do people buy 11 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: one product over another? Why do they buy a BMW 12 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:38,360 Speaker 1: versus a Tesla versus a car maybe from Ford? Or 13 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: why do they spend thousands of dollars on a trip 14 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 1: to Disney. Perhaps it's about a connection that they feel 15 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,800 Speaker 1: to a brand of a company. Emblem is an agency 16 00:00:47,840 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: focused on what's referred to as brand intimacy, that connection 17 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: that people have between themselves and brands. Mario Natarelli is 18 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: managing partner at Emblem. Mario this Afternoon joins us on 19 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: the phone from New York City. Mario how are you 20 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: good afternoon? Doing great? Thank you? Yeah, thanks for joining us. 21 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: We wanted to get you on the program because you've 22 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: got this brand intimacy study for the year two and 23 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: there are a lot of really familiar names on the list. 24 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 1: But I want to hear how you define brandontimacy and 25 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: why it's so important for companies to consider. Well, I 26 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,000 Speaker 1: thought you did a phenomenal job that, thank you. I 27 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 1: would add, yeah, I would add that I think of 28 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: it as the emotional science behind the brands that we 29 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: use and love. We know that behavioral scientists have proven 30 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,040 Speaker 1: that emotion drives our decisions, but in marketing and in 31 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 1: many other fields, emotion is often under considered. So we've 32 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: been on a twelve of year journey trying to define 33 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: a science and method around measuring that emotion that we 34 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: have with the products that we use and love. Well, 35 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: how do you measure that emotion? I would love to know. Yeah. Well, um, 36 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: we started by actually looking at how people bond with 37 00:01:56,560 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: each other and we found some interesting patterns. And ironically, 38 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 1: we bond with brands much like we do bond with 39 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:06,880 Speaker 1: each other. It's reciprocal, it's fluid, it's always evolving, and 40 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: the way we measure it is um. Not to get 41 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,400 Speaker 1: overly technical, but we basically use quant and call and 42 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,079 Speaker 1: now we're using social listening as our data sources. And 43 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 1: we observed to mass at two basic elements. One is 44 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: what is the characteristic of the bonds that you're forming, 45 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: and there's six unique patterns to those characteristics. And then 46 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: what's the degree of intensity? Uh, and there's three stages 47 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: of intensity to the way you bond with brand. That 48 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 1: formula has been evolved and tested and like I said, 49 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: over twelve years we've refined it where we feel like 50 00:02:37,639 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: it's stabilized now and that we're getting some really rich 51 00:02:40,320 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: and powerful insights from it. Okay, well, I'm want to 52 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 1: get to some of these names. They're on the list 53 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:48,360 Speaker 1: because there there's some everything in here is someone is 54 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: something that someone knows. So we got Disney coming in 55 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,200 Speaker 1: at number one, we got Apple at number three, We've 56 00:02:54,240 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: got Android at number nine, We've got Netflix at number eight, 57 00:02:57,480 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: Mercedes at number six. I'm kind of bouncing around here 58 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 1: because I want to focus on number two, which is Tesla. 59 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: And the reason I want to talk Tesla's because earlier 60 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: this week we had a story out in Bloomberg that 61 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:09,960 Speaker 1: talked about how Elon Musk's antics are starting to get 62 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: to people who have even been you know, the most 63 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: die hard Tesla fans. So how do you how do 64 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: you get to a score of sixty seven point four 65 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: score for number two of Tesla given all the problems 66 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: that Elon Musk has found himself in and all the 67 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:27,200 Speaker 1: attention that he has. Yeah, great question, And you know, 68 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 1: most of the questions we've we've received on the study 69 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: have been around Tesla because of the antics of Musque. 70 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:39,600 Speaker 1: So this data is um pre dates Tesla's or Musk's 71 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:43,600 Speaker 1: adventures with Twitter. So we would imagine if we ran 72 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: the data right now that there would probably be some 73 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: performance loss. So the Tesla ranking, I will say, that's 74 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: the first time that Tesla has ranked in the top 75 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: ten in the twelve years that we've been doing this, 76 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,400 Speaker 1: and it essentially rocketed of the fan of the findings. 77 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,760 Speaker 1: This is a brand that's really hitting on all cylinders 78 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: from a brand performance perspective. You know, people that drive Testa's, 79 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: if you know any really love their Testlas. You see 80 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:10,240 Speaker 1: it in the language that they're using, and you see 81 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: it in the performance um today. Now, like I said, Uh, 82 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 1: how much damage has been created in the last let's 83 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: say three to four months. It would be interesting to see. 84 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 1: I would suspect that it has fallen. Yeah, yeah, I 85 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: mean Tesla and Musk. I mean such a polarizing sort 86 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,160 Speaker 1: of figure there. But let's talk about number one Disney, 87 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: and I mean when I think about the emotions attached 88 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: to Disney films, to the Disney parks, that seems to 89 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: make a lot of sense to me. Mario, Yeah, this 90 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: is um. What's great about brands that do very well 91 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: year over years that they generally do well across their 92 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: entire portfolio, So whether it's about retail or in their case, 93 00:04:49,520 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: content or their theme parks, um, etcetera. Brandon Apple is 94 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 1: another one that does very well across all demographics and 95 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: across all channels. What's interesting about the ask me is 96 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: it also is benefiting from the effects of the pandemic. 97 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:07,520 Speaker 1: So the more we were looking for powerful stories to 98 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 1: uplift us or uh, to drive us to a more 99 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,880 Speaker 1: positive outlook, Disney sort of I think gained in terms 100 00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: of that appreciation. As the world also opened and the 101 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,560 Speaker 1: theme parks open, people were eager to take their families places, 102 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:25,360 Speaker 1: and I think Disney also again um benefited from that 103 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: positive trend. Mario, we only have thirty seconds left. But 104 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: what advice would you give the companies that are not 105 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: high on the list that want to get there? Well, 106 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:34,520 Speaker 1: this is the reason we do the study. We think 107 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 1: there's uh boodles of findings and interesting things that you 108 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:40,679 Speaker 1: can take from the study. Ultimately, if you think about 109 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,719 Speaker 1: your stakeholders, all of them internal and external, and the 110 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:46,640 Speaker 1: bonds that you're forming with them, you know, really try 111 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: to nurture them and invest in them and maintain them 112 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,280 Speaker 1: over time. It sounds easy, it's not. It takes dedication 113 00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: and perseverance. All right, we gotta leave it there, Mario. 114 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: Not a rally managing partner at Emblem, it's an agent 115 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 1: see that focuses on brand intimacy. They've got this brand 116 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: new brand intimacy study out. Mario, really appreciate you've taken 117 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: the time. He joins us on the phone from New 118 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: York City. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer 119 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well, 120 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,960 Speaker 1: as I mentioned, we've got Mr Laney Agafa Poulu in 121 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. She's personal finance reporter for 122 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. The reason we've got her in here is 123 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,479 Speaker 1: because she's got a Bloomberg exclusive out today. It's about 124 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: a sneaker head who allegedly operated a massive air Jordan's 125 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,919 Speaker 1: Ponzi scheme. Missy, it's great to have you back with 126 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: us on Bloomberg Business Week. How does a Ponzi scheme 127 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:41,679 Speaker 1: work when we're talking about shoes and not stocks and bonds. 128 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: That is a great question. And I know you mentioned 129 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: stocks and bonds, So I feel like we should try 130 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 1: to explain to anyone listening why we're talking about sneakers 131 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: right now. And I think the reason is this became 132 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:55,960 Speaker 1: a massive asset class that all the people started trading 133 00:06:56,360 --> 00:06:58,240 Speaker 1: during the pandemic. A lot of people were at home, 134 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: they had nothing to do. If they could get their 135 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: hands on sneakers whose price would go up uh later on, 136 00:07:04,880 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: you know in the year, they could buy them, sell 137 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 1: them for higher make money off of it. So a 138 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 1: lot of people sitting at home with you know, those 139 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 1: um COVID checks, Stimmy's ready to spend money. We're really 140 00:07:15,680 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: trying to find ways to get access to these really 141 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 1: highly coveted sneakers, and this company in Oregon, Zade Kicks, 142 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 1: promised them what their dream scenario could be access to 143 00:07:27,000 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: these sneakers that were extremely hard to get, like you 144 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: would have to wait in line to get them in 145 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: normal stores or pay for them in the resale market 146 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: for like hundreds of hundreds of dollars for what they 147 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 1: go for. So they'd offer these sneakers at a discounted price, um, 148 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: a few weeks after they were dropping. And so what 149 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 1: this man did is essentially sell shoes that he didn't have, 150 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: and so these customers started buying up these shoes. There's 151 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: a great example in the indictment from the federal government 152 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,559 Speaker 1: about how he sold six hundred thousand pairs of Nike 153 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 1: Air door in but he only had six thousand pairs 154 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: in stock. This is what prosecutors are alleging, right, this 155 00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: is what prosecutors are alleging. He's actually showing up an 156 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: Oregan court as we speak, Um, he is going to 157 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,440 Speaker 1: plead not guilty to sort of running this scam of 158 00:08:14,440 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: an operation. Who you know a lot of it sort 159 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 1: of comes back to the pandemic again, because what federal 160 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: authorities are saying is this guy has been around since 161 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: he has been running this business where he's selling shoes. 162 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:28,080 Speaker 1: When things went really south was during the pandemic again, 163 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 1: because he saw this surge of demand from people wanting 164 00:08:31,400 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: access to these sneakers um and I think he started 165 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 1: taking orders without necessarily realizing that he would never actually 166 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 1: be able to get these orders to people. And so 167 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: we have a lot of victims on the record saying 168 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: that they've lost thousands of dollars by sneakers that they 169 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 1: put money in for but never arrived. And how did 170 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: this unravel? What led authorities to this sneaker ponzi scheme 171 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: as it appears to be so, I think that authorities 172 00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 1: had seen this happened, they were monitoring the situation. What 173 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,440 Speaker 1: the lawyers for the man behind the company told us 174 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: is that he actually turned himself into authorities back in 175 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 1: May because he realized that everything had gotten out of 176 00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:13,719 Speaker 1: control and he owed so much money to people that 177 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: he couldn't really pull back, and so the you know, 178 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: he essentially turned himself in and surrendered and dissolved his company. 179 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,719 Speaker 1: And now he's going through the bankruptcy process where he's 180 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 1: trying to essentially get people's money back to them. But 181 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: of course we all know that, you know, there's people 182 00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: here who might never really get their money back. Okay, 183 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:33,000 Speaker 1: so what's this guy like. We're talking about someone you 184 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:38,280 Speaker 1: describe as a Lamborghini loving sneaker head. What's he like? Yeah, 185 00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 1: so again, sold a ton of sneakers that he didn't have. 186 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: Back to that example of the six hundred thousand Nike 187 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: Air Jordan's that he sold. Um, he made seventy millions 188 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: off of that, and according to the indictment, federal authorities 189 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,920 Speaker 1: state that he was spending it on really expensive cars Lamborghini's, Porchet's, 190 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: Mercedes Ferraris, but also all of the luxury goods that's 191 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: one can imagine, like Louis Betton purses fors jewelry and 192 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 1: watches that caused up to six thousand dollars UM. And 193 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: what's also very interesting is he did not keep that quiet. 194 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at his social media, his 195 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: Instagram was, you know, full of evidence that this guy 196 00:10:15,960 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: was living a very lavish lifestyle, assuming you know, from 197 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,160 Speaker 1: the sort of profits he can make out of this 198 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,640 Speaker 1: out of this company. And of course, like you said, 199 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: he's an appearing in court as we speak. But what 200 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 1: is he exactly being charged with and what could a 201 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: possible sentence look like? So he's UM being charged with 202 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: wire fraud, conspiracy to commit bank fraud because he also 203 00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: UM provided a lot of false statements to banks to 204 00:10:43,480 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: get funding that UM we're based on falsified information and 205 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: also money laundering. And so he's facing as much as 206 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 1: thirty years if convicted UM on the most serious count, 207 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: which again is conspiracy to commit bank fraud. All right, 208 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: we got thirty seconds left, Missy. What are customers you 209 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: spoke you're saying? I mean, I think this is what's 210 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 1: really interesting about this story is like they made a 211 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: lot of money from this company because they were still 212 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 1: able to get some sneakers flip them and really just 213 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 1: double and triple their investments. But I do think a 214 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: lot of them are facing like hundreds of thousands of 215 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 1: credit card debt because that is where they would charge 216 00:11:18,600 --> 00:11:20,840 Speaker 1: these sneakers is across level of credit cards. And what 217 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: they're doing is they're trying to go to credit card 218 00:11:22,520 --> 00:11:25,320 Speaker 1: companies and essentially file chargeback claims to get some of 219 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: their money back. Some of them are succeeding, some of 220 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: them are not UM, but all in all just all 221 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 1: of them sort of looking at this trial and hoping 222 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: to see something positive come out of it. Mr Lanny Gaffapulu, 223 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: personal finance reporter for Bloomberg News. This is an exclusive story. 224 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: It's on the Bloomberg Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com. 225 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,199 Speaker 1: It's about a sneaker head allegedly operating a massive air 226 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: Jordan Ponzi scheme. Be sure to check it out. This 227 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick 228 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:55,719 Speaker 1: Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Katie Greifeld and I 229 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 1: have been in here chatting about what it's like to 230 00:11:57,559 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: be a manager. And you know what, spoiler alert, neither 231 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,800 Speaker 1: of us are managers. Know somehow, I'm not in charge 232 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 1: of a single person other than myself. It's probably a 233 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: good thing for both of us. I know, it's a 234 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: lot of work. It's really interesting because it's something that 235 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: Julie Jaal writes about. She's the co founder of In 236 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 1: Spirit and also the author of the new book The 237 00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:20,439 Speaker 1: Making of a Manager, What to Do When Everyone looks 238 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,080 Speaker 1: to You. Julie joins us this afternoon from the Bay 239 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:26,800 Speaker 1: Area out west. Julie, how are you I'm doing great. 240 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,640 Speaker 1: How are you all doing. We're doing well. Thanks. Um. 241 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: Take us back to your mid twenties and when you 242 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: got this promotion and you became a manager. That is 243 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 1: sort of the genesis of this book. So I was 244 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:43,000 Speaker 1: years old. I had just joined a scrappy startup three 245 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:47,679 Speaker 1: years prior. It was a little college social networking at 246 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: the time. Facebook heard of it multily for me, you know, 247 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: to start ups grew and grew, and so within a 248 00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 1: couple of years we had added a lot more people, 249 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: and so I was one of the early people there. 250 00:13:02,280 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: One day, my manager turned to me and said, you know, 251 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: we have four new designers joining next week, and I 252 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: don't have time to meet with them. Why don't you 253 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: be their manager? And at this point, you know, I 254 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: had no training at this about how to lead, how 255 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,239 Speaker 1: to manage. But yet I found myself in this situation 256 00:13:18,400 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 1: needing to ramp up new people and help our team grow. 257 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:24,520 Speaker 1: And this is a very common story in Silicon Valley 258 00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: or in any context where a small team starts to 259 00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 1: take on bigger and bigger goals. Uh. And that is 260 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: how I found myself in that role. Um, without that preparation, 261 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: I made every single mistake in the book about learning 262 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,359 Speaker 1: how it is to manage and lead people, And ultimately, 263 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,199 Speaker 1: some years later I decided to write all that down 264 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: and um hopefully make it seem like I'm having a 265 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: coffee chat with somebody else finding themselves in that situation. 266 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:53,440 Speaker 1: And so, I mean, if you could go back in 267 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 1: time and talk to younger Julie Newly in that situation, 268 00:13:57,880 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: what would you say? What would be the main bullet 269 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: point there? The most important thing I would tell somebody 270 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: in that situation here is what the job of a 271 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 1: manager is. Because here's the thing. We grow up, we 272 00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 1: watch movies. We have a sense of like, what does 273 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: the boss do right? And we think about the boss 274 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 1: as the person who makes decisions, the person who hires 275 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: and fires people, the person who gets to tell everyone 276 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 1: else you know, what's right and how things go. And 277 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 1: the reality is, in my experience, like, that's not really 278 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: what great managers do. So the first thing I wanted 279 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 1: from to understand is what exactly is the job of management? 280 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: And very simply I define it as the manager's job 281 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,040 Speaker 1: is to help a group of people be able to 282 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: achieve more together. So how do they do that right? 283 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: How do they actually get a group of talented people 284 00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 1: to achieve more together. There are three main levels that 285 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 1: a manager has. The first is people. You know, you 286 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 1: need to bring in talented people who have the skills 287 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,240 Speaker 1: to be able to do what the group wants to 288 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: do together. The second is process us. So do you 289 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 1: have all of these great people okay? How should they 290 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,400 Speaker 1: work together? You know? How do they come up with 291 00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,880 Speaker 1: new ideas? How do they resolve disagreement? Who should do what? 292 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: You know? How does their work get divided? And finally, purpose, 293 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: which is defining what does success look like for this 294 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: group of people? How do we know what a good 295 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: job is? How do we know what a great job is? 296 00:15:20,840 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: How do we know what a mediocre job is? All 297 00:15:23,400 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 1: that has to be shared in terms of all of 298 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: the members on the team in order for this to 299 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 1: two team to go on and do great things. I'm 300 00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:35,520 Speaker 1: wondering about people who may not be managers yet and 301 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:39,160 Speaker 1: may not even aspire to be managers. And how you know, 302 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: we talked about this idea of managing up and the 303 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: idea of working with your bosses in a way that 304 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: is productive. What advice do you have for people in 305 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: those situations? The most important advice I have for somebody 306 00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: when they think about managing up is make sure you 307 00:15:55,800 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: know these two things. Make sure that your manager knows 308 00:16:00,440 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: what you aspire for, what your goals. Goals are in 309 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: your career. Do you want to get a promotion, do 310 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:08,440 Speaker 1: you want to manage when did? Do you want to 311 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 1: take on big projects? Or or you know, are you 312 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,000 Speaker 1: very happy doing what you're doing? You know what kind 313 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,080 Speaker 1: of projects are you excited to take on? What kind 314 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: of challenges are meaningful, and what kind of things you 315 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: hate doing? Make sure your manager understands that, right, So 316 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: ask yourselves, does my manager understand what my aspirations are, 317 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: what my strengths are, what my weaknesses are, and if not, 318 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 1: go ahead and tell them right, tell them in a 319 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:34,880 Speaker 1: one on what make sure they know. And the second 320 00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:38,480 Speaker 1: question is do you want to understand what success for 321 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,880 Speaker 1: my manager looks like in regards to what I can 322 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: do to help them? Because if you don't feel like 323 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:48,880 Speaker 1: you know what your manager is aspiring for in regards 324 00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: to the team that you're a part of, or what 325 00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: success for you looks like, you know you're gona be 326 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: basically talking past each other. So both of these things 327 00:16:56,520 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 1: need to be true. And if they're not clear. That's 328 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: what you know. Time with the manager in one on 329 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: one setting is for right. Make sure they understand your goal, 330 00:17:04,600 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 1: make sure you understand their goals. And Julie, what would 331 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:11,280 Speaker 1: you say, not necessarily to a new manager entering a situation, 332 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:15,960 Speaker 1: but a manager that maybe has already had some struggles 333 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,160 Speaker 1: with their team, with their reports, who has you know, 334 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: maybe lost faith. How do you rebuild that sort of 335 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: trust there? It's super critical that managers have the trust 336 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 1: with their team. And you know, everyone makes mistakes. I've 337 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: certainly made many as a manager, and in those cases, 338 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 1: what helped me the most was being able to admit 339 00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: my own vulnerability and uh and and come clean with people. Right. 340 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,720 Speaker 1: The thing is a lot of times managers have immense 341 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,639 Speaker 1: pressure on them. You know, they might think I'm the 342 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:51,119 Speaker 1: manager of the boss, I'm the person who should have 343 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: all the answers. But that's just too high of an 344 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: expectation to have on anyone. There's no single person to 345 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: company who should feel like they have the answers to 346 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 1: every single problem. That's why we have a team, That's 347 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: why people come together to work on big problems. And 348 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: so in the cases in which you know, as a manager, 349 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: you made the wrong call, something happened. Just to own it. 350 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,479 Speaker 1: Just admit that there was a mistake, you know that 351 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: you made You thought certain things. It didn't happen the 352 00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 1: way they expected and complete and ask for help. Ask 353 00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 1: the team, Hey, you know, this is one of the 354 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,240 Speaker 1: things that we need to do together as a team. 355 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:30,320 Speaker 1: I don't have all the answers. I would like ideas 356 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,440 Speaker 1: from all of you. What do you think we should do. 357 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,400 Speaker 1: The best thing I've found for myself as a manager, 358 00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,680 Speaker 1: the thing that gave me both a lot more impact 359 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: but also a lot more power, is to be able 360 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: to leverage the expertise and the wonderful talent among the 361 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 1: people on my team. Julie Joe, we got to leave it. 362 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: Their co founder at the advisory Firm in Spirit. It's 363 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:57,360 Speaker 1: an organization that partners with tech companies to help scale 364 00:18:57,400 --> 00:19:01,400 Speaker 1: and build products. Julie also spent years at Facebook, where 365 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,960 Speaker 1: she helped build the app into one that's used by 366 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,320 Speaker 1: more than a billion people. She's the author of the 367 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: new book The Making of a Manager, What to Do 368 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: When Everyone looks to You. Joining us this afternoon from 369 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 1: the Bay Area in California. Julie, thanks so much for 370 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:24,120 Speaker 1: taking the time a journal. Yeah, but you let me drive? 371 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, no, who's honey? Please gravels let me. 372 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:39,280 Speaker 1: I want to drive. It's good question. This is the 373 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 1: drive to the Globe on Bluebird Radio. All right, we 374 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: got lesson ten minutes to go, and as Charlie mentioned, 375 00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,479 Speaker 1: we've got a rally underway. Taking a look at the 376 00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:54,359 Speaker 1: S and P five hundred up one point eight percent, 377 00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,600 Speaker 1: the nasdack up two point eight percent. Let's get into 378 00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: it with Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern at 379 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,760 Speaker 1: Trust Wealth Management. Katie joins us on the phone from 380 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,760 Speaker 1: right just outside of New York City. Katie, how are you? Um? Great? 381 00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 1: How are you? We're doing pretty well. What we're trying 382 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,639 Speaker 1: to figure out is whether or not this equity market 383 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: has gotten ahead of itself, given what we're hearing from 384 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: FED officials, because it sounds like they're saying it has well, 385 00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:19,320 Speaker 1: it's been I mean, as you have started off the segment, 386 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,960 Speaker 1: that's been a crazy day in the market today, a 387 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: huge risk on rally here in particular with the riskiest 388 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 1: areas of the market. The nastack up so strongly, and 389 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,920 Speaker 1: you know, I think we came into this really with 390 00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,800 Speaker 1: with such low sentiment, with such a negative positioning that 391 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,800 Speaker 1: we were due for a nice bounce like we've seen 392 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: last week and sort of into this week. But I 393 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: think you asked the right question, which is is it 394 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: sustainable in the phase of a bed that appears to 395 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 1: be hell bent on not stopping not stopping um? And 396 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,960 Speaker 1: that's certainly where what we're looking at right now as well. 397 00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,520 Speaker 1: You know, how far will the said go um, and 398 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 1: how will markets be able to digest how the final destination? 399 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: And Katie, I mean, I'm sure you've heard this one before. 400 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,560 Speaker 1: Don't fight the Fed, And just you know, thinking about 401 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: what we've heard in the past forty eight hours or 402 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,680 Speaker 1: so from Feed officials looking at a one point eight 403 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: percent rally on the sp Now, is that not kind 404 00:21:13,520 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 1: of the definition of fighting the Fed? It really is, 405 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,880 Speaker 1: you know, the if you think about it, the stock 406 00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:20,880 Speaker 1: market and the bond market are both fighting the Fed 407 00:21:21,000 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 1: right now. Um. And it's really I think a function 408 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,119 Speaker 1: of the fact that we're all data dependent and the 409 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: market is interpreting some of the data as suggesting that 410 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:34,000 Speaker 1: growth is slowing down here, but so is inflation. So 411 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:36,120 Speaker 1: the market is basically saying to the Fed, you're not 412 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 1: going to have to go as far as you think 413 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 1: you do. Um and also you might have to start 414 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: reversing course much sooner than you think you have to. Now, 415 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: Be that as it may, the Fed, the Feed officials 416 00:21:46,840 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 1: that are coming out with all of this sort of 417 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,680 Speaker 1: hawkish sentiment are doing exactly what they should be doing. 418 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: They cannot afford to show any signs of capitulation or 419 00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 1: weakness right here. They have to keep consistently telling the 420 00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: market that they going to focus on inflation so that 421 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 1: they can maintain that all important credibility. And it's I mean, 422 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 1: it's kind of interesting to me that if you look 423 00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:11,640 Speaker 1: at break even inflation expectations, for example, they have come 424 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,480 Speaker 1: down quite a lot. I mean, it feels like that 425 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:18,399 Speaker 1: in and of itself is a vote of confidence in 426 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 1: the Fed. But again, you just try to marry that 427 00:22:21,080 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 1: with what's happening in the equity markets. I mean, what 428 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: what is driving sort of this big rally that has 429 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,160 Speaker 1: been going on for well over a month now. Well, 430 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: I think you hit the nail on the head about 431 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: inflation expectations. And that's kind of to my point earlier 432 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 1: that you know, investors are telling you said they won't 433 00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,479 Speaker 1: have to go as far as they think they need 434 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: to go because inflation is coming off the boil. We 435 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 1: have seen that through some of the p m I 436 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: data with the prices paid. We've seen that clearly in 437 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,280 Speaker 1: the commodity complex, not just the energy market, but across 438 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: other areas of the commodity complex. So I think you're 439 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: sort of seeing this broadly based plateau going, if not falling, 440 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: in the inflation data, and I think it's giving market 441 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 1: the confidence to fight the Fed. Okay, so, Katie, I 442 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: want to talk more about the overall economy. Obviously, the 443 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: market not the economy, but the two are certainly interconnected. 444 00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 1: Are we in a recession right now? Oh? No, that's 445 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,600 Speaker 1: the six or four thousand dollar question. You're right, market 446 00:23:17,640 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: is not the economy, but certainly they do. Rhyme um. 447 00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 1: I'll jump in the camp with with the most that 448 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 1: say we might be in a technical recession, but I 449 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 1: think for it to be a true recession, you need 450 00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: to see much more broad weakness, and we just haven't 451 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: seen it. Friday is going to be a super important 452 00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,760 Speaker 1: day to see what the job's data shows us, and 453 00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,960 Speaker 1: we do expect some weakening, but we still anticipate that 454 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 1: we're going to be in this healthy labor market for 455 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: the foreseeable future. So it's really hard to argue that 456 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: we're in a recession when you have such low unemployment. 457 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: And Katie, I mean, I've got to get your thoughts 458 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 1: on the bond market because I look at the bench 459 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,679 Speaker 1: mark ten year treasury yield and the moves have just 460 00:23:53,760 --> 00:23:58,879 Speaker 1: been amazing. I mean, seventeen eighteen basis points yesterday, another 461 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 1: sort of reach Eastman today, but a lot of choppiness. 462 00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: And that's just this huge rally that we saw over 463 00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:07,000 Speaker 1: the past month. I mean, you compare that to the 464 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,760 Speaker 1: equity market. Sure we've seen big moves, but it feels 465 00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:12,640 Speaker 1: like the bond market though, it's just hanging on every 466 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: single word, every single data point. What do you make 467 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 1: of some of the whips all that we've seen there. 468 00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:21,080 Speaker 1: I think, unfortunately, we're gonna have to get used to it. 469 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,880 Speaker 1: We're going to continue to see volatility within range um 470 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:26,840 Speaker 1: in the bond market. And you know, our view is 471 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,480 Speaker 1: that we've probably seen at or close to the highs 472 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 1: and the tenure. We have sort of a central tendency 473 00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: for the ten year around three percent um. But as 474 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,920 Speaker 1: you can see as it creeps up toward that toward 475 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,640 Speaker 1: that level, it quickly comes comes back down as as 476 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,959 Speaker 1: investors longer term investors longer at the duration curve are 477 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 1: anticipating much slower economy and also much less aggressive fed. 478 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,000 Speaker 1: That's what you're seeing priced into bonds right now. But 479 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 1: it's not. It's interesting because it's not a recessionary forecast 480 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 1: because you look at some of the credit indicators and 481 00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 1: they are certainly not flashing red in terms of being 482 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,160 Speaker 1: concerned about there being an kind of a deep recession 483 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: or any kind of a credit event. So it's very 484 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: interesting time. It is interesting, and it's hard to untangle 485 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: sort of the different relationships that are at play right now. 486 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,439 Speaker 1: But Katie, I am curious what you read on it 487 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: as to which market is leading which right now? Is 488 00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:19,880 Speaker 1: it bonds leading stocks, is it stocks leading bonds, or 489 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,479 Speaker 1: are both as a classes sort of marching to their 490 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,280 Speaker 1: own drums. Right now you're a bit marched into their 491 00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: own drums because um kind of contrary to what we 492 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 1: said before where the economy it rhymes with the market, 493 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 1: what we've seen is this dissidence where we have had 494 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: actually pretty strong earnings growth in the face of a 495 00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,919 Speaker 1: technical recession, which is kind of unusual. Um but it 496 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 1: does show you that at this point in time things 497 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:44,720 Speaker 1: are a bit discombobulated, where we have had surprising strength 498 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: and earnings despite the fact that we have a macro 499 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,199 Speaker 1: outlook that's that's certainly dimmed. Um. So I think stocks 500 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,119 Speaker 1: are kind of heaving a sigh of relief here that 501 00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:55,239 Speaker 1: the recession story is not playing out in earnings, and 502 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,920 Speaker 1: bonds are telling you the go forward view it is 503 00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,120 Speaker 1: just slower, okay. So the bonds bond story is telling 504 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:02,840 Speaker 1: us that, okay, growth is going to be there, but 505 00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 1: it's slower. Yes, that's exactly what it's saying. And the 506 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:08,919 Speaker 1: equity markets are kind of catching up to what had 507 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,600 Speaker 1: been almost an uber bearers sentiment coming into July, where 508 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 1: there were lots and lots of concerns about about the 509 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,479 Speaker 1: second quarter earnings period being much worse than analysts expected. 510 00:26:18,520 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: As we're seeing it's actually surprising on the upside, quite 511 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: the rally that we're seeing today. I mean, look, the 512 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: NASDAC up two point seven percent as we speak. Katie Nixon, 513 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 1: chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management, joining us 514 00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: this afternoon from Rye, New York. Thanks for listening to 515 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,919 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or 516 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our 517 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or 518 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:48,400 Speaker 1: watch us on YouTube. Search to Bloomberg Global News