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Speaker 1: This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is a

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Speaker 1: straight fire fan mean? Jason McIntyre Straight Fire for Friday,

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Speaker 1: September nine. Then we have Oh boy, we've got some

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Speaker 1: l A Rams football to talk about on this podcast.

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Speaker 1: But he's also got multiple best bets at the end

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Speaker 1: of the podcast best bets did not go well Thursday. Uh,

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Speaker 1: And we have a special guest, David Baker. He's very

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Speaker 1: popular in these waters. The Super Contest winner, the Circle

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Speaker 1: runner up. I think it was the guys are gambling

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Speaker 1: machine in the NFL. So we'll go through a bunch

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Speaker 1: of games of teams that he likes. He is vacationing

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Speaker 1: with a bunch of buddies. It parts unknown, really nice

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Speaker 1: set up. I think you guys will enjoy Mr Baker.

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Speaker 1: But first, rob g super Bowl favorite Buffalo Bills look

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Speaker 1: kind of good. Didn't they cut just a little bit?

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Speaker 1: I mean, did they look good or did the Rams

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Speaker 1: look bad? Well? Okay, so the Rams lost three starters

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Speaker 1: from their defensive team in the Super Bowl. Von Miller

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Speaker 1: was one of them. Von Miller had two sacks, three

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Speaker 1: tackles for loss. The Bills had seven sacks of Stafford.

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Speaker 1: So was that Bills look great with Von Miller or

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Speaker 1: Ram's new offensive line not great. Probably a little of both. Sure,

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Speaker 1: you know what. I watched the game and Buffalo look

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Speaker 1: at as advertised. I mean, it were not for those turnovers.

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Speaker 1: It should have been like to tell they did not punt.

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Speaker 1: They went nine for ten on third down. They had

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Speaker 1: seven point one yards per play over four hundred yards

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Speaker 1: and as you said, four turnovers. This could have been

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Speaker 1: a massive blood bath. And it felt felt like it

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Speaker 1: was right. Oh, it really felt like it was. I

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Speaker 1: mean the problem, I mean, the Rams have a lot

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Speaker 1: of problems, you know, stemming from they lose their left tackle,

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Speaker 1: went Worth for tie. They lose their their best deep

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Speaker 1: art O b J. They never replaced him Van Jefferson's

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Speaker 1: hurt um. Alan Robinson is a possession receiver, Allen Robinson.

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Speaker 1: I mean, are we sure he's even that rob No,

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Speaker 1: he's not deep, right, He's he's a possession guy. He

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Speaker 1: is he could he get open. He is the catch

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Speaker 1: on two targets. The problem is that, you know, because

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Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford has his elbow injury, he never practiced, so

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Speaker 1: he got zero chemistry with Alan Robinson, which as you noticed,

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Speaker 1: he was only throwing last night to Cooper Cup and

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Speaker 1: and late Tyler Higbee, like he was locked into the

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Speaker 1: same two guys all night. Targets thirteen catches, bu sick touchdown. Um,

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Speaker 1: it isn't sorry interesting you say that he only threw

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Speaker 1: the Cup. So on the broadcast they talked about the

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Speaker 1: Bills playing a little that too high shell the same

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Speaker 1: way that they attacked that everybody attacks Patrick Mahomes these days.

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Speaker 1: And from my perspective, okay, great. You know Stafford can

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Speaker 1: find holes and he did with Cup, but for whatever reason,

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Speaker 1: I don't think Robinson could find the holes in his

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Speaker 1: own right. Well, I saw at least two plays. I

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Speaker 1: saw at least two plays on rollouts where he was

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Speaker 1: open and Stafford just didn't get in the ball. And

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Speaker 1: I don't know what do we make of the stafford

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Speaker 1: elbow injury. Do you think that's an issue? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I'm sure he's okay, but when you have a new receiver,

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Speaker 1: it's you know, I could be wrong here, but I

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Speaker 1: think it's important to build some kind of rapport with him.

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Speaker 1: And the fact that he hasn't thrown basically all camp

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Speaker 1: is not a good sign. And then the other problem

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Speaker 1: with the Rams is when you are so top heavy

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Speaker 1: on your roster and they really only have like six

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Speaker 1: or seven like really good players and then just a

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Speaker 1: bunch of dudes. And the problem with that is Stafford

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Speaker 1: was terrible, Um Alan, Alan Robinson was invisible, and Jalen

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Speaker 1: Ramsey had the worst game of his career. Cramsey got

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Speaker 1: cooked so on the sideline there was a great play

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Speaker 1: by Digs of tremendous throw by Alan, And listen, we're

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Speaker 1: five minutes and I haven't even talked about how great

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen was. There's a reason he's the MVP favorite.

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Speaker 1: Guys like Josh Allen looked like unstoppable. He looks like

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton meets Patrick Mahomes, like he's Bobby Wagner challenged

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Speaker 1: him at the one yard line and he dump trucked

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Speaker 1: him the way I would like run over my eleven

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Speaker 1: year old if he tried to tackle me like Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen looked like just a giant going through I don't know,

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Speaker 1: I Bobby Wagner's a Hall of Famer, but I mean

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Speaker 1: Bobby Wagner was a great, great linebacker for a long

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Speaker 1: time in this league, and Josh Allen went right through him.

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Speaker 1: Um slinging at downfield. Uh, Now, I'm sure Jalen Ramsey

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Speaker 1: will argue that, Oh, I thought we were in zone

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Speaker 1: and I thought I had help on that, like Digs

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Speaker 1: ran right by it. And then just I don't know

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Speaker 1: if you saw the celebration, he tapped the head like

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Speaker 1: it was a dunk on his head. I didn't know

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Speaker 1: that was an NFL thing, did you? I did not.

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Speaker 1: I think I thought it looked cool, it was new,

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Speaker 1: and I think we're gonna see a lot of that

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Speaker 1: this year. Um, Gabriel Davis looked good. His prop hit. Now,

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Speaker 1: I bet that I put it on Instagram stories. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if everybody saw it, but I went over

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Speaker 1: on Davis. Robinson was a massive bust. Honestly, rob if

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Speaker 1: they're if they're not gonna get him unlocked, this team's

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Speaker 1: in trouble. And I did host The Herd last Monday

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Speaker 1: and one of the takes was and this was not

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Speaker 1: like some hot take for the show. And Um, the

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Speaker 1: producer who we both know, Ryan Music. He was my

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Speaker 1: producer way back and you work with him, you know,

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Speaker 1: he was like flummoxed when I said that there's a

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Speaker 1: chance the Rams could miss the playoffs. Now, I'm not

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Speaker 1: saying that after one lost they're gonna miss the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: but the schedule is brutal. They got eviscerated by a

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Speaker 1: really good team on the schedule, and like you said,

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Speaker 1: they are very top heavy. Ramsey did not look locked

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Speaker 1: in Stafford. I don't know three picks. He was under

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Speaker 1: Darress all the night. And the offensive line has to

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Speaker 1: play better. I don't know that helps on the way

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Speaker 1: cam Akers, what doghouse? What's going on? I mean all

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Speaker 1: I'm here, It is okay, I'm akers. I think Matthew

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Speaker 1: Berry was hyping cam Akers, was he not? And like

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Speaker 1: he didn't get a Harry for the first two quarters,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if he got one of the first half.

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Speaker 1: And it was a Darrell Henderson show running into a

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Speaker 1: brick wall. Like, listen, there's gonna be overreaction Friday. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: I'm not tossing the Rams out. As Rob said. They

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Speaker 1: didn't look good like I mean Rob zero points in

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Speaker 1: the second half, like they they just looked in nept uh. Now, listen,

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Speaker 1: don't rebound next week against the Falcons. They should. They

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Speaker 1: should tear apart the Falcons after that at Cardinals at

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Speaker 1: Niners Verse Cowboys. We'll see about the Panthers, Niners, Bucks, Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: Like it's gonna get tough. Man, I don't know, rob Again,

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Speaker 1: you want to avoid the overreactions. But it's not a

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Speaker 1: good start for the Rams on An Island game. No,

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Speaker 1: not at all. I think if I had to break

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Speaker 1: it down to one word, at least for the Rams offense,

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Speaker 1: I mean the defense, I thought that they were okay.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the problem is you need Jalen Ramsey to

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Speaker 1: be elite for them to be good, and he was bad,

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Speaker 1: so that that's just what's gonna happen, especially against good offense.

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Speaker 1: But for the Rams offense, slow, they looked very slow.

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Speaker 1: They looked plotting. Darryl Henderson, to your point, couldn't get,

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Speaker 1: you know, beyond the line of screamage without getting ran

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Speaker 1: into Alan Robinson has never been a burner. Cooper Cup

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Speaker 1: gets open better than almost anybody in football. But I

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Speaker 1: don't think anyone's ever going to say that he's a

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Speaker 1: deep threat. That's just not his game. He's he can

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Speaker 1: remember the Bucks playoff game, he got him. Yeah, but

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Speaker 1: I mean that's not that's not what you think of

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Speaker 1: when you think of of Cooper Cup like you don't

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Speaker 1: look at him as a Odell Beckham Jr. Even like

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Speaker 1: he's not that kind of receiver. Um And with O

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Speaker 1: b J bring him up again that him not being

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Speaker 1: there and Van Jefferson being hurt. Who is its scuer

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Speaker 1: Nick Score? I mean that, Yeah, he I look like

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Speaker 1: a plotter out there. To me, Tyler Higbee looked like

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Speaker 1: a tight end, Like he's fine, but he's not stretching

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Speaker 1: the defense. So it's a lot of Cooper Cup in

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Speaker 1: these sleeam routes and and over outs. And it's just like,

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Speaker 1: I don't know how you're able to unlock the rest

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Speaker 1: of that team if everybody can play you fifteen yards

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Speaker 1: and inn. I just can't see. What's the panic level

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Speaker 1: if you're a Rams fan. Ten is it's def Con one.

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Speaker 1: We are ft season in massive jeopardy. And one is listen,

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Speaker 1: we played the best team in the league. We got worked,

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Speaker 1: we got some work to do on the offensive line.

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Speaker 1: It's okay this there's seventeen games or sixteen games left.

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Speaker 1: Uh three, I'm not worried. You're not really that worried.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, man. I mean like, look, Sean McVeigh

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Speaker 1: is a good coach that I saw last night on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: They were in eleven personality. Eleven personnel means one tight end,

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Speaker 1: three receivers all game. And when two of your receivers

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Speaker 1: are not separating, you know, taking tak you ain't kind

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Speaker 1: of space. It's just it's Cooper Cup. Cooper Cup, Cooper Cup.

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Speaker 1: And and as good as Cooper Cup is, he cannot

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Speaker 1: be your only option. He cannot be the only threat

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Speaker 1: on your offense. I had him in fantasy, by the way,

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Speaker 1: graduate I know people care. I was going against the

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Speaker 1: Bill's defense, which kind of sort of feasted and had

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Speaker 1: a ship ton of points. All right, without further ado, Listen,

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Speaker 1: it's a big weekend Monday. We will be back. Um.

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Speaker 1: But first we got David Baker. We got picks at

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Speaker 1: the end. Enjoy it. Jason likes to think he knows

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports

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Speaker 1: stands want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a

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Speaker 1: guy who does. Let's just say, I know a guy

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Speaker 1: who knows a guy who knows another guy. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's welcome into straight fire, big time guests. Obviously he is.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to call him a gambling savant. Because

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Speaker 1: he's gonna probably get all weird about that. But the

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Speaker 1: guy is a big time poker player. He has done

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Speaker 1: extremely well in the big money Vegas NFL season long contests.

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Speaker 1: He tells me he's in two of them, and the

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Speaker 1: survivor I'm in a survivor pool are like the pots

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Speaker 1: and you've got a decent chance. I was. I narrowly

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Speaker 1: missed it last year because the damn charges against the Texans.

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Speaker 1: That being said, let's bring in David Baker. David, how

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Speaker 1: are you, man? I'm awesome. Thanks for having me, and uh,

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Speaker 1: congratulations on on your new gig with Colin. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: thanks a lot, man. It's it's fun. It's I'm able

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Speaker 1: to keep the lines open all morning and just watch

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Speaker 1: gambling lines during the show. He's like, yeah, what any

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Speaker 1: big moves? Like mentioned them? So you know, for instance,

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Speaker 1: Week one, Cardinals Chiefs. I don't know if you saw this,

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Speaker 1: but like I think it was Tuesday or Wednesday, one

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Speaker 1: of these syndicates hit it and it goes from four

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Speaker 1: and a half to six and I'm like, is there

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Speaker 1: some injury news? Like what the hell is going on?

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Speaker 1: It's I don't know how often David or you want

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Speaker 1: to talk about the process, but having that done best

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Speaker 1: screen open and just watching it light up is really

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Speaker 1: something to behold. Yeah, I mean a lot of the

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Speaker 1: line moves are obviously generated by you know, just a

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Speaker 1: couple of send agains, so sometimes you have to kind

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Speaker 1: of pass through what's real and what's not. Sometimes you know,

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Speaker 1: they put false action and are just to get it,

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Speaker 1: get the line to a spot where they want so

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Speaker 1: they can come back on the other side, you know,

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Speaker 1: more on a um to an independent book or something

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Speaker 1: per se that may use the lines that get artificially moved.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I did notice that line, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's just a basic distrust in the market right now

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Speaker 1: for the Cardinals, and um, you know, hard to really

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Speaker 1: argue with them. I mean, the Cardinals, uh have a

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Speaker 1: lot of question marks going into the season, so I

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Speaker 1: think it kind of stems from that. And people are

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Speaker 1: a little worried about the Chiefs coming off of the

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Speaker 1: you know, the off season they had. But it feels

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Speaker 1: like the market is kind of come back to liking

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, So I'm really not surprised that market has

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Speaker 1: moved in that direction. I gotta ask it is there, like,

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Speaker 1: do you have like a handicapping idea for week one.

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Speaker 1: I know everybody's been waiting to gamble on football and

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Speaker 1: fantasy and Survivor and all this stuff for for like

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Speaker 1: six months, seven months now, and a lot of people

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Speaker 1: want to fire. I think I've got like five teasers

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Speaker 1: out there are probably at least nineteen wagers already. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it's a little crazy, and over the weekend, you know

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Speaker 1: more stuff is gonna pop up. Um Parlay's teeth. Like

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Speaker 1: you just get excited, right, Do you have a strategy

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Speaker 1: when you enter Week one? Like, hey, try to contain yourself.

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Speaker 1: It is a long marathon, not a sprint. Absolutely not.

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Speaker 1: I have a d gen first and foremost. I like

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Speaker 1: the action. I want to be in on. I want

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Speaker 1: to be in on every game in some way. Um

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Speaker 1: So I'll kind of sprinkle out everything and then I

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Speaker 1: I fire hard things that I like. Um obviously with

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Speaker 1: the contest, Survivors, daily Fantasy, season long Fantasy, that's there's

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Speaker 1: there's so much action in every game, But um no,

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Speaker 1: I I just just sprinkle it out there. I'm not

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Speaker 1: I'm not one of the you know, I wouldn't say

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Speaker 1: I'm like sharp action. I mean, I don't really get

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Speaker 1: my information from anybody. I don't have you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't have access to you know, underground information. I'm just

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Speaker 1: like a lot of the viewers and and whatnot. I

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Speaker 1: just try to, you know, bet on my ability to

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Speaker 1: to handicap the market better than others. Um. That's really

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Speaker 1: why I like the contest. I mean, you're not paying juice,

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Speaker 1: You're really just putting yourself, um in a low risk,

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Speaker 1: high reward type situation. Obviously you're not gonna win or

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Speaker 1: even contend very often. But for those years that you

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Speaker 1: do get to contend, it's a you know attack, a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun and you can turn a small amount

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Speaker 1: of money into a large amount of money. And that's

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Speaker 1: really kind of what I like to do. And I

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Speaker 1: do like to sprinkle on the you know, the game's individually.

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Speaker 1: But um, you know with that, you know that if

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Speaker 1: you're not really shopping juice and big like, it's very

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Speaker 1: hard to win as a gambler, um unless you have

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Speaker 1: you know, inside information, online movements and things like that. So, UM,

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Speaker 1: I come at it more from a recreational side, but

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Speaker 1: a smart recreational gamblers what would say that I am, Um,

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Speaker 1: I'm not you know, professional from a firm of standpoint

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Speaker 1: of you know, I'm hooked up with with the syndic

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Speaker 1: Kits or anything like that. But I do have, I

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Speaker 1: do know some sharp people, and I do, um you know,

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Speaker 1: bounce my takes off of them and vice versa. But um,

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Speaker 1: I would say, I'm just a smart, smart wreck. Okay,

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Speaker 1: where would you like to start? David? Four? Week one? Um,

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Speaker 1: I positioned this, let's go to Survivor first. Can we

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Speaker 1: just get that out of the way, because usually, I

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Speaker 1: mean I have had a lot of success and Survivor

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Speaker 1: This week one, David at as hard as I've ever seen.

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Speaker 1: There's so many road favorites, and my strategy is to

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Speaker 1: keep it simple in September, nothing exotic. Take take the

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Speaker 1: free points where the free wins. And and I'm looking

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Speaker 1: up to down the board. There's not really one home

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Speaker 1: team that I like. I'm leaning towards Colts or Chiefs

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Speaker 1: just because I trust Andy Reid and I'd like to

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Speaker 1: go against two um new coaches, if you will. I

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Speaker 1: know Love he's been around for a minute. But am

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Speaker 1: I missing a up somewhere? Like I think the Bengals

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Speaker 1: are gonna win, but I'm probably betting and putting the

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Speaker 1: Stealers in the contest, So I can't take the Bengals

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Speaker 1: in a divisional matchup and survivor. Where are you looking

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Speaker 1: at Survivor? Yeah, I haven't discussed with my partner what

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Speaker 1: we're going to do, but if it's up to me,

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Speaker 1: I I have some personal survivors and then I have

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Speaker 1: the bigger ones when with my partner. Um, I like

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. I think the Bengals are my favorite. They're

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Speaker 1: my favorite play both spread wise and survivor wise. Um.

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Speaker 1: I really like this Bengals team. I feel like they

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Speaker 1: still kind of feel like the second child to the Steelers. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And they whooked up on them last year. I mean

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Speaker 1: they beat them, So I feel I think this Bengals team,

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Speaker 1: even though a lot of sharps are bound on them, uh,

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Speaker 1: just because they did have a lot of variants luck

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Speaker 1: on their side, I still think it's the same team

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Speaker 1: that went to the Super Bowl with a better offensive line,

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Speaker 1: and we're looking at a Steelers team that is not

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Speaker 1: very good upfront and it's not very scary offensively. They

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Speaker 1: have a quarterback that played a couple of halves in

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Speaker 1: the preseason but really hasn't been a starter in a

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Speaker 1: couple of years, um, with a new system. Uh And

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Speaker 1: and the Bengals fans haven't seen this team since they

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Speaker 1: beat the Raiders in the wild card game, so they've

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Speaker 1: gone on the road. They went on the road to

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Speaker 1: beat the Titans and the Chiefs and then had Super Bowl.

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Speaker 1: And I think this stadium will be fired up. Joe Burrow,

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Speaker 1: to me, is just the kind of guy that has

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Speaker 1: you know, he's just got that fire. He reminds me

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Speaker 1: of you know, that Brady when it all costs. Just

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Speaker 1: kind of guys. So I don't think he's gonna rest

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Speaker 1: on the laurels of the Super Bowl. So I like

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. I looked at their their schedule. Um. My

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Speaker 1: philosophy on survivor is is you know, multifaceted. Um. I

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Speaker 1: do look down the line, and I do wanna save

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Speaker 1: teams that have better spots. The Bengals, even though I

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Speaker 1: really forecast them to have a good year, their schedule

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Speaker 1: really doesn't have a whole lot of layups in it.

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Speaker 1: Uh Um. So I like this spot against the Steelers

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Speaker 1: at home. I don't see a lot of light up

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Speaker 1: spots for them. I do like Falcons. What about Falcons

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Speaker 1: October um at home. I don't actually have the Survivor

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Speaker 1: good grid next to me, but I think, yeah, just

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Speaker 1: google Survivor grid. Wow, somebody has built one of those. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: there's a Survivor grid and you can actually like map

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Speaker 1: it out. But you can also see a color codes

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Speaker 1: like based on the the what the forecasting lines are,

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Speaker 1: so you can see like certain weeks there's like three

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Speaker 1: or four or five, you know, dark green spots, So

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of options that week. So there might

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Speaker 1: have just there might have just been other options that

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Speaker 1: week that the Bengals were and that can help you

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Speaker 1: kind of see the schedule just in all of its

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Speaker 1: glory with the with the Colts. I would not advise

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Speaker 1: using them this week just because they're gonna have the Colts.

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna have the Texans and the Jags

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Speaker 1: on the schedule at home, and I know they struggled

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Speaker 1: in in a couple of spots like that last year,

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Speaker 1: but um, I like the Colts just this year in general,

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Speaker 1: so I don't really think this is the best spot

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Speaker 1: to use them. I'd rather save them for one of

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Speaker 1: those weeks. Look, it looks like they have Jacksonville week

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Speaker 1: six this Survivor Grid's incredible guys just through Google Survive

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Speaker 1: for Grid. But they played Texans week eighteen, so I

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Speaker 1: would probably I would probably look at the Jag spot. Um,

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Speaker 1: I don't really remember off the top of my head.

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Speaker 1: It's on my phone which is in the other room.

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Speaker 1: But h I think there were there were some other

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Speaker 1: spots too. I mean, I like the Colts to win.

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Speaker 1: You know, almost as many games or equal number of

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Speaker 1: games as the Bengals, and I think there's more spots

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Speaker 1: to use the cold so I would rather have the

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Speaker 1: Bengals at home than the Colts on the road. Um.

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Speaker 1: Also a team that I don't think you're gonna like

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Speaker 1: this one. But if you're in a if you're in

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Speaker 1: a really large survivor pool and you want to just

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Speaker 1: get completely off the board, um, especially this Circus Survivor contest.

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Speaker 1: So it really kind of depends on how your survivor

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Speaker 1: contest is built. If yours is Bill where you have

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Speaker 1: to pick multiple teams deep in the deep in the pool,

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Speaker 1: or if you have to have like a Thanksgiving and

364
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Speaker 1: Christmas so you have extra weeks. I think you have

365
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Speaker 1: to You're gonna have to take some chances early. I

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Speaker 1: think somebody that I like this week is Washington. Oh

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Speaker 1: damn it. I like the Jags. I already bet them. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I think I think there's never gonna be as fun.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna like the Mike Washington and they're at home

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Speaker 1: versus an inferior team in my opinion. So even though

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Speaker 1: I don't really like Washington as a team, I think

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Speaker 1: if you're looking to gamble early and want to just

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Speaker 1: hope that one of these chalk teams loses and get

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Speaker 1: that team out of your way, that you're never gonna use.

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Speaker 1: I kind of like Washington as a as a thought. Um,

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Speaker 1: so I'm kind of leading since the Washington. Uh, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I've talked to my partner and see what

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Speaker 1: he likes. But that's kind of where I'm at right now.

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Speaker 1: Let me push back on Cincinnati a bit um. Divisional

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00:19:54,119 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 1: dogs have been an interesting story the last couple of years.

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Speaker 1: In Week one, Mike Tomlin as a divisional underdog nineteen

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Speaker 1: six and two against the spread. Again, I know that's

383
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Speaker 1: a trend that we don't. You never want to just

384
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Speaker 1: bet trends, but you couple that with the Super Bowl

385
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Speaker 1: loser in their season opener, going four and eighteen against

386
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Speaker 1: the spread since two thousand. Again, I again, trend is

387
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,480
Speaker 1: just part of the equation. But any of that at

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Speaker 1: all give you pause? Um, and remember the Bengals last year.

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Speaker 1: I think we're underdogs in like fifteen games, and now

390
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,399
Speaker 1: they're favored in something like fourteen games. So it's like

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Speaker 1: a total. Like last year, every time you got the Bengals,

392
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Speaker 1: they were dogs. This year you're betting them and they've

393
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Speaker 1: got to not only win but cover. I just Burrow

394
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Speaker 1: with the appendectomy, brand new offensive line, like he hasn't

395
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Speaker 1: had one snap against an opponent with that four new

396
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Speaker 1: offensive line starters. Um, I just I can see you know,

397
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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh went into Buffalo last year Week one and the

398
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Speaker 1: defense was incredible. I can see them kind of you know,

399
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Speaker 1: rallying around Tomlin and putting up a good fight. Any

400
00:20:57,320 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 1: of that make any sense to you? I mean, there's

401
00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 1: no share of thing. I mean, I you can make

402
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 1: a case for all of these. I mean, do you

403
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Speaker 1: want to take Trey Lance in his first game on

404
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 1: the road even though the fairs are terrible? You know?

405
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:10,400
Speaker 1: Do you want to take the Ravens on the road

406
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,600
Speaker 1: even though Joe Blaco is terrible. I mean you kind

407
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 1: of do. But the thing is with the Ravens, I mean,

408
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:17,800
Speaker 1: there are plenty of other spots to take them. There

409
00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:20,439
Speaker 1: are other great other spots for the Niners. They're good

410
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Speaker 1: spots for the Colts. Um, I didn't really love the

411
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Speaker 1: Bengal spots. But none of that really concerns me. When

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Speaker 1: when you look at it and you say, like, well

413
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Speaker 1: the division dog is X. I mean, Vegas knows all this.

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Speaker 1: It's built into the price. So if you have a

415
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Speaker 1: six and a half point favorite, it doesn't matter it's

416
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Speaker 1: on the road, it's at home, it's division. It's not

417
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: a six and a half point favorite is gonna win

418
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Speaker 1: X amount of times. I mean that's really just all

419
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Speaker 1: it comes down to. So that's really just not a

420
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Speaker 1: not an issue for me. I think the I think

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Speaker 1: the Bengals have less spots where I want to use

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Speaker 1: them throughout the year. And I trust this team. I

423
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Speaker 1: trust Burrow. Um. Yeah, obviously Pittsburgh can be frisky and

424
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,760
Speaker 1: has been frisky. But if you put this Pittsburgh rouster

425
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 1: on on in the Bears uniforms, I mean, are we

426
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: really that in love with it? I mean it's Midra Bisky.

427
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: It's a terrible offensive line, it's not a very good defense. Um.

428
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 1: I mean I don't see where the Steelers are any

429
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 1: better than the Bengals at any at any spot. So,

430
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:24,919
Speaker 1: I mean, they still have Jamar Chase, they still have

431
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 1: Tee Higgins, they still have Tyler word Boyd, Joe Mixon,

432
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. I mean, I don't think this is gonna

433
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 1: be an issue. I don't think they're gonna come out flat. Um.

434
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,880
Speaker 1: But hey, that's what's great about it is, Uh, these

435
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: lines are set up so that there's equal opinion on

436
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,440
Speaker 1: both sides. I mean, they don't set it up so

437
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 1: that we're all betting one way. Um. I would agree

438
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 1: with all that obviously. I just I don't like Pittsburgh

439
00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 1: long term. I just think this week they'll put up

440
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 1: a fight, right, all right. So moving on from Survivor,

441
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,120
Speaker 1: So now you're you're in the Vegas contest. I think

442
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 1: it pays out the circle one is like four point

443
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: three million in or three point nine or I don't

444
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:03,640
Speaker 1: know what the number is, but you gotta pick five

445
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: every week. Again, Like just like Survivor, this is a

446
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 1: tough week. Uh, the only one that I'm locked in

447
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 1: on in short of a massive injury, I won't change

448
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 1: my mind. Is the Giants. It looks like they are

449
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 1: six in the contest. It was six. I bet at

450
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: six and a half in Vegas last week. It's down

451
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: to five and a half. Um. Any thoughts on Giants Titans? Yeah,

452
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: I I like the Giants. I like that call Um.

453
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: There's a chance they'll be on our card as well. Um.

454
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:32,879
Speaker 1: The only thing I don't like about the Giants is

455
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: I do think they're gonna be kind of popular. I

456
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:38,719
Speaker 1: don't think the masses like Tennessee and in these contests

457
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: when faced with kind of similar information, I mean, when

458
00:23:44,040 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: there's not really like a huge line movement or injury

459
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 1: or something that is a reason for it. I kind

460
00:23:51,520 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 1: of try to stay off of chalk ere picks just

461
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: because you know, when you win, a majority of the

462
00:23:56,800 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 1: field wins, so you don't really want to take teams

463
00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 1: too often that are like thirty owned. And I think

464
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 1: the Giants might get there because just the overall sediment

465
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: of Tennessee's offense took a big hit in offseason, and

466
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: are they really the type of team that that we

467
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 1: want to be Laying almost a touchdown with this Giant

468
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: seems got some preseason buzz table. Um, so yeah, I

469
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 1: can see the Giants being popular, But I do like

470
00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 1: the Giants. Uh, there's a good chance they'll be on

471
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 1: on the car as well for us. Maybe that's a

472
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 1: good way to attack it. Who else do you think

473
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: will be popular in the contest. I would posit that

474
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 1: people seem to love the Detroit Lions for the full season.

475
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: I saw that one of the most popular bets for

476
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 1: season win totals because they finished strong last year. We

477
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 1: had Aaron Schatz on the podcast and he made a

478
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: point about how like, hey, you know, there's zero correlation

479
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 1: historically to finishing the season strong and then playing well

480
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,919
Speaker 1: the next season. I kind of like the Eagles on

481
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 1: the road force. I don't love that number, but any

482
00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: thoughts on that. Yeah, I like Eagles, and I will

483
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: probably have the Eagles across the board on the card.

484
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: I like them for the for the season overall as well.

485
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:13,640
Speaker 1: I think, um, I think that that that Jalen Hurts

486
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: is about ready to take a step up this year.

487
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 1: And I like the team. I've I've I've bet I

488
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,360
Speaker 1: bet them early to win the division. Um. Now, all

489
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,640
Speaker 1: the value has been sucked out of it, so it's

490
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 1: probably not a not a good bet at this point.

491
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:27,679
Speaker 1: But when I when I took it a couple of

492
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: months ago, um, I got over two to one on that,

493
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 1: So I'm happy with the Eagles. I like what they've done. Also, Detroit.

494
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 1: Detroit is the kind of team that I might look

495
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 1: to get a piece of when they're playing a softer team,

496
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: but they don't traditionally handle these big physical lines like

497
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: the Eagles present. Eagles went into Detroit last year and

498
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 1: pounded them pretty good as a like a five six

499
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: point favorite, So I'm looking for a similar, um similar

500
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,439
Speaker 1: game this time, so I probably will have the Eagles

501
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,879
Speaker 1: as well. You highlighted some games that I really do

502
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 1: like as well, so um, I'm high on the Eagles

503
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,640
Speaker 1: this year. I'm not high on Detroit as as maybe

504
00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:12,360
Speaker 1: the consensuss. So yeah, I'm with you on the Eagles.

505
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,919
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

506
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,919
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports

507
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app

508
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: search f s R to listen live. This one's gonna

509
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: really hurt to even talk about, because I guarantee it's

510
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: going to be one of the least bet games of

511
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: the day. But Saints Falcons listen. I like the Saints

512
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: this year. I bet them to win the division. I

513
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 1: just Jamis Winston as a road five and a half

514
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: point favorite, and I know the Falcon stink, but I

515
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: think David we could probably agree their secondary is pretty

516
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 1: good Terrell and Hayward on the outside. If you if

517
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 1: I don't know what the odds are on the Jami's

518
00:26:50,359 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: pick six, but would not shock me if Jamis suddenly

519
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: had some issues. Um, could you talk yourself on a

520
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 1: betting the Falcons getting five and a half. I think

521
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: this game is to stay away from me. I'm with you.

522
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: I like the Saints on the season. I don't really

523
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: think the Falcons are They're not deep, They're they're not strong. Um,

524
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,159
Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean laying laying almost a touchdown. We

525
00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: don't really know what we're going to get out of this, uh,

526
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: Jamis Dennis Allen offense. I I want to believe that

527
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,239
Speaker 1: it's good. Um. I like the pieces they have. I

528
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: like Jamis. Um. I think it's kind of, you know,

529
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: not an insulting way to what you said, but I

530
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,199
Speaker 1: think it's a kind of a tired. Take that. You know,

531
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: Jamis throws all these interceptions in these pick sixes. That

532
00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: was that was what three years ago. I mean he

533
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: was he was younger, he had didn't have as you know,

534
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: he would, didn't train under Drew Brees and and Sean Payton.

535
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: I mean he said a couple of years with that system.

536
00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 1: He's got good receivers, he's and and yeah he might

537
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 1: have thrown some interceptions, but you know what, I'll take

538
00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: the guy that's going for it. Um. He also through

539
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: roof for five thousand yards I think that year and

540
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: thirty touchdowns or something. So I don't mind my guy

541
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: being a gun slinger a little bit. I would much

542
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 1: rather have that than a guy that's just you know,

543
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 1: dink and dunk and everything has to go perfect. I mean, yeah,

544
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: Jamis might make a couple of big time negative places,

545
00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 1: but he's gonna throw some positive places in there too.

546
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: And I think Jamis is gonna have a nice year.

547
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 1: I think the Saints are gonna have a nice year.

548
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: I like I like the weapons that have. I mean,

549
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 1: when Jarvis Landry is your number three, I mean I

550
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 1: don't love Jarvis, but I mean the guy's reliable and

551
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: it's nice to have, you know, a reliable set of hands.

552
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 1: Is your third guy, You've got the deep, the deep

553
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 1: play threat with the lava um Camara healthy and and

554
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: doesn't look like he's gonna get suspended at all for

555
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:48,400
Speaker 1: the year. And I mean, we don't know what we're

556
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 1: gonna get out of Thomas, but optimistically, I think we

557
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: should get a good, healthy Thomas. So it wouldn't surprise

558
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 1: me if the Saints blew them out. Um, But again,

559
00:28:57,320 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: I'm not really looking to h to jam a touchdown

560
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: on the road versus team that I'm not a hard

561
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: percent sure what they're gonna look like. Another divisional dog

562
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: there now. Quintessential Jamis last year, right Week one against

563
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: the Packers, You remember this, thirty eight three Jamis five touchdowns,

564
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 1: people going crazy. Next week goes on the road to

565
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 1: Carolina basically vomit's all over himself, two interceptions, hundred yeards passing,

566
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: and they get smoked by Christian McCaffrey and Sam Donald.

567
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 1: Like that is the Jamis experience, and that's the only

568
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,959
Speaker 1: thing that could scare me off the Saints long term.

569
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: But I'm already committed, unfortunately. Um, is there any other

570
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 1: games you want to touch on that kind of jump

571
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 1: out at you. In week one, I will say, David,

572
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: is I just love the Russell Wilson narrative and I

573
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 1: don't want to bet into it. But do you think

574
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: it's six and a half now simply because it's the

575
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: final game, it's Russell Wilson revenge, your final game of

576
00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 1: the week. Do you think they inflated it to protect

577
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: themselves against all the profits rolling over into Monday night

578
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 1: money line parlays and all that fun stuff. I think

579
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 1: it's just essential. The market is is extremely cold on

580
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: Geno Smith and really just in general on some of

581
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 1: these bad teams. I think that the you know, it's

582
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 1: a quarterback driven league and we just judge the entire

583
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 1: team based on the quarterback. So I think essentially it's

584
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:21,959
Speaker 1: just that. Plus you know, you do have the Russell

585
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: Wilson going back home narrative. That's I mean, I think

586
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: if they hung anything less than this that they would

587
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: just get I mean, I don't I don't like the

588
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:35,280
Speaker 1: Broncos this year. I'm not a rush supporter and I'm

589
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: having I'm having trouble, you know, clicking the Seahawks button.

590
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 1: So I can imagine how easy it is for people

591
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: to click the Broncos who do like Russ and the Broncos. Yeah,

592
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 1: I think the Broncos are the worst team in that division. Honestly,

593
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 1: that's I I don't get the I don't get the

594
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 1: Broncos hype. Um wait, worse than the Raiders. Yeah. I

595
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: like the Raiders this this year. I like the Raiders.

596
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 1: I like the Chargers. Um. I'm not as sold on

597
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: the Chiefs as everybody else, but I do understand and respect,

598
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:05,959
Speaker 1: you know, what they've built there and that they do have,

599
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 1: you know, one of the top quarterbacks and coach combinations

600
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: in the league. Um. Probably they do have just combined

601
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: coach slash quarterback combination, probably have the best. But I'm

602
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: not sure what I'm getting out of the Broncos team.

603
00:31:19,960 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 1: I'm not sure Russell Wilson is the guy that we

604
00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: think is. Is he good? Yeah, but I'm not sure

605
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: he's elite in my opinion, He's you know, in that

606
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,960
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen range, And I don't I don't really

607
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:34,520
Speaker 1: see all the talent that they I'm just I'm just

608
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: not sold. I'm not sold on the Broncos. Um, that

609
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,560
Speaker 1: doesn't mean they won't go out and pace the Seahawks,

610
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: but I'll be looking to fade them when they're playing

611
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: tougher teams. Interesting, Well, what do you like about the Raiders?

612
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: I really like that. I mean I like that offense.

613
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,880
Speaker 1: I think car made some really good strides. I love

614
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: Davante Adams, I Waller I think is great, and I

615
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: mean Renfro I don't really like as a number one,

616
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: but I mean he's him doing that, him in that

617
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: role with Josh McDaniels, that uh that Amundola and Edelman

618
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 1: and West Welker ran. I mean, this is this is

619
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: the way that Josh McDaniels is basically built an offense

620
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: and run an offense with the Patriots. He has a

621
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 1: quarterback that can throw the ball. He might not be

622
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: you know, on skills test number one, but he's still

623
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 1: gonna go out there. He's gonna he's gonna sling it around.

624
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: He's got the deep threat and the possession receiver, like

625
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: the Moss type with Davante Adams, he's got the gronk

626
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: type with Waller, he's got a stable of He's got

627
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 1: the West Welker Julian Edelman piece with with ren Frow,

628
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:47,760
Speaker 1: he's got a stable of running backs that he doesn't

629
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 1: really care who who he uses. I mean, Jacobs is

630
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 1: gonna get plenty of runs, and he's got Abdulla as

631
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,360
Speaker 1: the James and the James White roll probably and I

632
00:32:57,440 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: just kind of like what what they've got. The defense

633
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:01,760
Speaker 1: is obvious, see a big question mark, but I think

634
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 1: they'll be in some shootouts and and I like their

635
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 1: chances to come out on top on on some of those. Um. Obviously,

636
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:13,640
Speaker 1: the division is just brutal, so um so I mean,

637
00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: I just I see these offensive line stuff. I just

638
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 1: worry Opener both and mac cars struggled in both games

639
00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: against the Chargers last year. Oh I don't. I don't

640
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: like them this week. I like them for this season.

641
00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 1: I actually do like the Chargers this week. Um, especially

642
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: what the what the Raiders did to them on that

643
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 1: last game of the year. Um, you know, the Chargers

644
00:33:37,160 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 1: need to win that game to get in the playoffs,

645
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 1: and they don't. If they just tie, they go to

646
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:42,920
Speaker 1: the playoffs. And the Raiders had a chance to just

647
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: kick the field goals send them both into or just

648
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:47,239
Speaker 1: down and I think it was and just both go

649
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 1: into the to the playoffs, and they scored at the

650
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: end of overtime where they didn't need to just to

651
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 1: knock the Charges out. I think Chargers, I think Chargers

652
00:33:56,080 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: got a little something for him. So I do like

653
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: the Chargers in that game. But um, just for the over,

654
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 1: I'm just talking overall season. Why so I'm I'm higher

655
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 1: higher on the Raiders than I am the Broncos, even

656
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 1: though the wind totals like one and a half difference

657
00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: in Vegas. I would I would probably bet the Raiders

658
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: first the Broncos and most wins. So I guess that

659
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:22,440
Speaker 1: means I like the under in the Broncos. Well, I

660
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 1: was gonna you said you mentioned under. We didn't talk

661
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 1: any totals week one. Um, there is you know, a

662
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 1: lot of flags in the preseason for this new penalty,

663
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,439
Speaker 1: and there's a pushback, Oh, overs are gonna hit because

664
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 1: the flags, And I don't know, I keep looking and

665
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,720
Speaker 1: I seek a bunch of unders week one. Um, maybe

666
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: it's just the quarterback matches. But are you are you

667
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: jumping around any totals or is that not really interesting

668
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,759
Speaker 1: as much? Not as much? If I was gonna, if

669
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:50,920
Speaker 1: I was gonna attack a total, I would probably. I mean,

670
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 1: I kind of like the Patriots Dolphins under forty six

671
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 1: seems pretty high for me with a team like the

672
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 1: Patriots that I don't think you're gonna are going to

673
00:35:00,600 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: push the ball downfield. Um. I know the Dolphins want to,

674
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: but I don't know what they're going to be able

675
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 1: to do week one versus of Belichick defense. So forty

676
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,680
Speaker 1: six seems a little high to me on that game.

677
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:15,600
Speaker 1: So I would kind of if I was going to

678
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 1: play a total, that would probably be my favorite total,

679
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm focused more on the sides for the

680
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,959
Speaker 1: contests and things like that. Another scene that we didn't

681
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:29,319
Speaker 1: talk about, but my pick to represent the NFC in

682
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl that I got with the odds. I

683
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: mean not just straight, but I think the Vikings. I

684
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 1: think the Vikings have a legitimate shot to make the

685
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 1: Super Bowl and uh I jumped on him a few

686
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,399
Speaker 1: months ago and the market has continue to pound them down,

687
00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:45,080
Speaker 1: so I got a really good price. I'm not sure

688
00:35:45,080 --> 00:35:47,720
Speaker 1: how much value is left on them, but I really

689
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,280
Speaker 1: think this Vikings team has a lot of what it takes,

690
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,200
Speaker 1: a lot of what I'm looking for in uh in

691
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 1: a team. They this team was on the precipice of

692
00:35:56,719 --> 00:36:00,359
Speaker 1: being good last year. But their coach just held back.

693
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:02,879
Speaker 1: I mean, Zimmer just I feel like he just lost

694
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 1: so many games late for them. I know Kirk Cousins

695
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:07,880
Speaker 1: kind of gets a wrap that he doesn't win the

696
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 1: big game, but I'm gonna put a little bit of

697
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: that on on Zimmer and I really think O'Connell can

698
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 1: really open up Cousins to be a lot more successful. Um,

699
00:36:19,400 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: their skill position players maybe the best in the league,

700
00:36:22,560 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: with Jefferson and Cook and land Or Smith, I think

701
00:36:25,960 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 1: is underrated. Um, you know, I I think that the

702
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 1: Vikings have enough on defense. They're not great, but enough

703
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 1: with this high powered offense that that they can win

704
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: a lot of games. I I'm not sure that Green

705
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 1: Bay is coming back as strong as they were, and

706
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: I'm not buying the Lions and the Bears. So when

707
00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 1: I'm looking for a sleeper, I really want an easy

708
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 1: path to have U for a somewhat easy path to

709
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: have home games in the playoffs, and I think the

710
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,920
Speaker 1: Vikings path is pretty open. Um. They just have to

711
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: at by Green Bay. And obviously, you know every division

712
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: winner is gonna have their odds are going to be

713
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: a lot lower to make the Super Bowl. So I

714
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: was able to get twenty three to one on the

715
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: Vikings to get to the super Bowl, and really all

716
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 1: we have to do is get by the Packers to

717
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 1: win the division and there'll be a top two or

718
00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: three seats. So um, that's kind of where I like

719
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: a little long shot if you're looking to, you know,

720
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,799
Speaker 1: put a long shot. That's funny. And now we have

721
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: not previously discussed this, but when I did go to Vegas,

722
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: I think it was my second biggest play was on

723
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 1: the Vikings to win the NFC. I have to take

724
00:37:32,800 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: but we both have. I you know, it's sad. I

725
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 1: don't know this off the top of my head, but

726
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 1: it's on the ticket upstairs. Uh, you know, I put

727
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 1: them in a safe like a loser. Um'll look at

728
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: them until the end of the season. But yeah, I'm

729
00:37:46,000 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 1: bullish on the Vikings. Bet them to win the division.

730
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 1: I actually put a little on Kirk Cousins m VP

731
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,880
Speaker 1: that that feels like a long shot, given Jefferson is

732
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 1: so good and we'll probably have his vote. But yeah,

733
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: I like the O'Connell stuff. Now, I will say in

734
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: Week one, I it's tough for me to like the Vikings, David,

735
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 1: simply because I've watched that Rams offense struggle against the

736
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 1: Packers defense. Um, and O'Connell was with that Rams offense.

737
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 1: So like, I think the Packers will probably shut down

738
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 1: Minnesota a little bit more than we think in Week one,

739
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: and then Minnesota will have a ton of value my

740
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: belief and we do. Yeah. Well, uh. I Also I

741
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: am not as confident this week as I am for

742
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 1: just bullish on them for the season. I do like

743
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 1: them this week, um, but I kind of look at

744
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: it as it doesn't really matter either way. I mean,

745
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: I'll probably have some vikings this week, but the vikings

746
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: this week and next week they have the Packers and

747
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 1: the Eagles, two games where I'm not totally confident that

748
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 1: they're going to deliver. But either one of two things

749
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:49,240
Speaker 1: are gonna happen. They're gonna get off to a decent

750
00:38:49,280 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 1: start and I'm gonna make some money there and build

751
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 1: some equity, or they'll probably be able to come back

752
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:56,919
Speaker 1: in week three, four or five and get a little

753
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: few more points on on the vikings. So the ones fine,

754
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 1: I actually don't mind if you have if you have

755
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:05,360
Speaker 1: a spot to put down money and you don't have to,

756
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 1: you know, get it out of your pocket. I kind

757
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: of even like just attacking the Vikings over for the

758
00:39:11,239 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: win total for the year instead of this week, because

759
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 1: if they win this game against the Packers, that's basically

760
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: all but cash, barring catastrophic injuries across the board. I

761
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 1: think if they beat the Packers this week, that over

762
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: nine is that, I mean, that's free money. But if

763
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,040
Speaker 1: they lose to the Packers, I still think they have

764
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 1: a reasonable chance to get there. So I kind of

765
00:39:30,719 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: like that as a kind of back around, a way

766
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 1: to get some action on this game. Do you know

767
00:39:37,920 --> 00:39:39,560
Speaker 1: this is gonna sound silly to some people? What do

768
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: you play any alternate wind totals? Like if I if

769
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:44,000
Speaker 1: I'm so bullish on the Vikings and so are you,

770
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,120
Speaker 1: would you advise someone to go out there and get

771
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,719
Speaker 1: really good plus money on like over eleven and a

772
00:39:48,760 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 1: half wins for the Vikings if that was the alternate

773
00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 1: wind total. I mean you can. I don't traditionally do that.

774
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,359
Speaker 1: I'm pretty simple in my and my attacking their um.

775
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: I'll just I'd just rather win by two or three

776
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: and not have and at least have a sweat if

777
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: I was a little bit wrong and they're they're good,

778
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:11,040
Speaker 1: but they're not as good as I thought. Um, and

779
00:40:11,080 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 1: I think I still got out shot at the Super

780
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 1: Bowl just based on the fact that even if they're

781
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 1: a wild card, I mean, I'm still have a shot.

782
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 1: I think there's really only eight teams that I think

783
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: have eight to nine teams in the NFC that I

784
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: think you even have a shot of the playoffs. So um,

785
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,720
Speaker 1: I'm kind of pretty bullish on on them at their price.

786
00:40:31,080 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 1: I think if they're just in the tournament, I think

787
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 1: there could be some serious um downgrades for the Bucks

788
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: and Packers this year. So I'm looking for alternate spots.

789
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: The other problem, you know, we don't need to go

790
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 1: much longer, but like just season long wind like fluky

791
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: stuff happens, Like if you had the Panthers a wind

792
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 1: total over last year, you're looking great with McCaffrey, he

793
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 1: goes down and at your toast, you know, And so

794
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:57,720
Speaker 1: it does kind of stink that way to be betting

795
00:40:57,719 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 1: all these season future stuff. But David as always a

796
00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:06,719
Speaker 1: tremendous stuff. Obviously, good luck in the season long contest.

797
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 1: I'm sure when you're you know, leading the damn thing

798
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 1: halfway through and I'm not within striking distance, I'll ask

799
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: you to come back on. Maybe your partners will let you. Um,

800
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 1: any other party at parting shot you would add anything

801
00:41:17,160 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: there at the end about poker or NFL or your

802
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 1: trip out of the country right before the football Now,

803
00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm I'm excited for football season. I love

804
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,319
Speaker 1: listening to you and getting your takes on it, and

805
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 1: and you bring some really good guests on. Um was

806
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 1: that Aaron shot I think was on was one of

807
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,920
Speaker 1: my favorite shots. Yeah, yeah, that was one of my

808
00:41:38,960 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 1: favorite podcasts that that have listened to. I I got

809
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,399
Speaker 1: a lot of information out of that one, So keep

810
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 1: keep killing it. I mean, you're doing a great job

811
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: out there and excited for the year, and um, you

812
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 1: know I'll be posting. I'll post my pics on my

813
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: Twitter feed. Ay you David B and um you know,

814
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:02,480
Speaker 1: just remember I'm I'm just uh amateur lover of the

815
00:42:02,560 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: sport and d Jennings. So I mean, don't don't hate

816
00:42:06,160 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 1: me if you lose money but on picks I've made.

817
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 1: But we've done good the last couple of years, so

818
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 1: we'll see if we can continue this year. Yeah. Any

819
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: gambler says they haven't lost money is totally lying. Or

820
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 1: not really gambling? All right, David Baker, good stuff. Congratulations

821
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: and we'll talk to you soon. Dave, Thanks appreciate it.

822
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

823
00:42:26,200 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports

824
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 1: Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app

825
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 1: search f s R to listen live. The only thing

826
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:41,480
Speaker 1: better than sitting on your couch watching the gag. He's

827
00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:45,000
Speaker 1: making money while you do it. Here's your best beat.

828
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 1: Good good stuff from David Baker. The guy has delivered

829
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: in these Vagas season long tournaments. He knows his stuff

830
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,800
Speaker 1: when it comes to the NFL. It's interesting. He doesn't

831
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 1: have a model, doesn't sound like he adheres to a

832
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 1: lot of the other systems where it's like, oh, you

833
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 1: gotta you gotta take the division, divisional dog. And I

834
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,760
Speaker 1: like Baker. He marches to the beat of his own drump.

835
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna quickly go through some of the games that

836
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 1: I like this weekend. We'll just buzz through all them.

837
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 1: Not got to spend a ton of time. Start Ravens Jets,

838
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 1: Ravens seven point favorites. I you know when the number

839
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:21,800
Speaker 1: came out, I think it was the guy Connor Allen

840
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:25,000
Speaker 1: our guest earlier this week, Jets team total was eighteen

841
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:26,439
Speaker 1: and a half. I don't know how they get there

842
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:29,000
Speaker 1: unless there's a scoop and score a pick six special

843
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 1: teams something. I don't see how the Jets are scoring

844
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 1: nineteen points in this I mean that means at least

845
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,320
Speaker 1: two touchdowns because they get a touchdown in six field

846
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 1: goals five field goals, so that means they gotta move

847
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 1: the football. Are they going to with Joe Flacco? We

848
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: don't know about Dayne Brown, whom is practiced Thursday their

849
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 1: left tackle. Crazy stat. I saw the Jets offensive line

850
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 1: played twenty one snaps together in the preseason. That's it.

851
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 1: That's not ideal. And you're going to get to Ravens

852
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: team that traditionally has been blitz happy. I know they

853
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:59,919
Speaker 1: have a new defensive coordinator. John harbaught ten and four

854
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 1: against the spread and in season openers. He's just money.

855
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: I know that small sample size, and McVeigh was five

856
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 1: and oh before you got his butt kicked last night.

857
00:44:08,480 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: It's just I have a hard case, hard time making

858
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 1: a case for the Jets here. I would look at

859
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: the under, you know, I could see this being like

860
00:44:15,040 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 1: thirty one seven. Um, it's just I don't I don't

861
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:20,160
Speaker 1: see how you can make a case for the Jets.

862
00:44:20,200 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily want to bet on the Jets, um,

863
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 1: but seven on the road is a huge number. It

864
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:27,840
Speaker 1: is not divisional, so I don't know if I'll included

865
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: in the contest. Saints Falcons is interesting. The more you

866
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 1: guys know, I like the Saints this year. I don't

867
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 1: like the Falcons. Nobody does. But from a strictly match

868
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 1: up perspective, there's a scenario where Jamis Winston struggles to

869
00:44:41,560 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 1: complete passes against a J. Terrell and Casey Hayward, arguably

870
00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 1: top three cornerback combo in the NFC. Toterrot was fantastic

871
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 1: last year. They're the only hope on that defense. The

872
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 1: rest the front seven is not good. So are we

873
00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:57,360
Speaker 1: going to see a Camara a show? You know, divisional

874
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: matchup again? That's the big buzzword J missed on the road.

875
00:45:01,120 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: I know it is a dome situation and the Saint's

876
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 1: offense should look better, but it's tough for me to

877
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 1: lay points with Jamis Winston on the road. That is

878
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 1: just not a recipe for long term success in the NFL.

879
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: That being said, I can see Dennis Allen's front seven

880
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: just obliterating the Falcons. If it's it would be Falcons

881
00:45:20,800 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 1: for me in the contest. I don't think I can

882
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 1: bet at five and a half. If it's somehow at six,

883
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 1: I could. I take the Saints at six, but I

884
00:45:27,160 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 1: did lose money on them a bunch last year. It

885
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:34,279
Speaker 1: get good numbers and it hurts forty Bears. A touchdown

886
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:39,160
Speaker 1: is the spread tray Lance. It is like real debut.

887
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:40,959
Speaker 1: I mean last year is a rookie, you know, thrown

888
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: into the fire. I imagine they'll have some exotic stuff ready.

889
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 1: Bears offensive line is a dumpster fire. Should maul them

890
00:45:48,400 --> 00:45:50,359
Speaker 1: up front. But this is this a game where it's

891
00:45:50,480 --> 00:45:52,439
Speaker 1: we're gonna run and play it safe with tray Lance,

892
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 1: and that means a close game and a total of

893
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 1: forty favored by seven. Again, this is another game. I

894
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 1: just don't love a road face word of seven. Like

895
00:46:00,960 --> 00:46:02,600
Speaker 1: I just I'm not I'm not really going to lay

896
00:46:02,600 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 1: in that. This is what I do. Like Steelers six

897
00:46:07,040 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs in Cincinnati, And I explained

898
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:14,719
Speaker 1: this on Coward Chill yesterday. The Bengals were favored. I

899
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 1: believe in two games last year. They're now favored in

900
00:46:18,840 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: something like fourteen games this season. So the role has

901
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 1: been reversed from hunter to the hunted. There was expectations

902
00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:32,439
Speaker 1: this season. There were none last season, the Bengals winning

903
00:46:32,480 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 1: every game, like, oh they're the Bengals, we'll see and

904
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 1: Burrow just shocked the world. And they were big underdogs

905
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 1: and they covered. They were covering machine. Steelers made the

906
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 1: playoffs last year. Somehow they were not good. I don't

907
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,399
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be good this year. But if there

908
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:48,719
Speaker 1: ever is a Mike Tomlin spot to get his team

909
00:46:48,760 --> 00:46:53,399
Speaker 1: pumped up, hey man, these guys worked our asses last year,

910
00:46:53,480 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: sixty to twenty combined in the two games. Okay, And

911
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 1: now you have Burrow coming off the appendeck and he

912
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,439
Speaker 1: didn't play in the preseason, has four new starters, winning

913
00:47:05,440 --> 00:47:07,600
Speaker 1: offensive line. It's like, wait a minute, how much does

914
00:47:07,640 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: he work with these guys? Oh, you're facing t. J. Watt,

915
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 1: who appears healthy and fine and he's gonna go not ideal.

916
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 1: Now the kicker is Tomlin. In these underdog spots in

917
00:47:18,920 --> 00:47:22,279
Speaker 1: the division, the number staggering. The Fox research staff comes

918
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 1: up with some great stuff nineteen six and two against

919
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 1: the spread as an underdog in the a f C.

920
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 1: North is Mike Tomlin. Not often the dog, but when

921
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,680
Speaker 1: he is, he knows how to get the troops fired

922
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 1: up and delivered. Now I know you say, Jason, you're

923
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 1: betting on Mitch Drabinsky on the road. I'm not just

924
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: susially betting Trabinsky. I'm betting six and a half. That's

925
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 1: the number. I just don't think you could pass it up.

926
00:47:46,960 --> 00:47:50,399
Speaker 1: This totally is one of those similar to last year,

927
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,120
Speaker 1: Steelers going the road to Buffalo. Nobody gives him a chance.

928
00:47:54,200 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 1: Everybody likes the Bills. Bills lay an egg, Steelers come

929
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 1: away with the victory. I can totally see a special

930
00:48:01,920 --> 00:48:04,040
Speaker 1: teams gaff here. I know the Bengals have the better kicker,

931
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 1: but I think the Steelers for me, will be a

932
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 1: surefire contest play. As I talked about with Um Baker

933
00:48:11,640 --> 00:48:14,680
Speaker 1: in the interview Eagles Lions, we also touched on that

934
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 1: I will be on the Eagles, just too much love

935
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 1: for the Lions. I gotta monitor the injury report Friday

936
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: and Saturday before I go significant on the Eagles, Patriots, Dolphins.

937
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:25,759
Speaker 1: I think I like the Dolphins. I want to see

938
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 1: that final Patriots injury report. It's weird. Belichick's being KG.

939
00:48:29,960 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: That's not weird. That's on brand for Bill. Like, I

940
00:48:32,920 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 1: don't really know. I don't know what to expect. Is

941
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 1: this gonna be a low scoring Patriots team. Are they

942
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,560
Speaker 1: gonna go tempo? What's up with the play calling? Just

943
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 1: a lot of unknowns. So I feel like the Dolphins

944
00:48:43,920 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 1: are probably the side. But three and a half it's

945
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 1: not the best number. This is two and a half

946
00:48:47,280 --> 00:48:50,920
Speaker 1: if you got it dead. Hey, great Jags commanders. I

947
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:52,759
Speaker 1: talked a little bit about this with Baker. I'm on

948
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 1: the Jags now. I did bet this in Vegas last week,

949
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:56,560
Speaker 1: so I got the better number. Three and a half.

950
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 1: Two and a half not as ideal. I think the

951
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 1: Jags win this outright. Just a quick reminder, Doug Peterson

952
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: intimately familiar with the Commanders from his time in Philly.

953
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:13,280
Speaker 1: Doug Peterson also coached Carson Wentz for five years. Peterson's

954
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: a good coach. They got want a Super Bowl? Yeah,

955
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:17,479
Speaker 1: Dual Belichick. I know if Nick Foles gets all the credit,

956
00:49:17,520 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 1: Peterson was the head coach, so I would not be

957
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: surprised if Peterson had some stuff schemed up for Wentz, who,

958
00:49:25,640 --> 00:49:28,359
Speaker 1: by the way, in the season finale last year went

959
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,359
Speaker 1: with the Colts against the Jags, cost him a playoff spot.

960
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:33,680
Speaker 1: In the game, he got sacked six times. Now you

961
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,560
Speaker 1: add Trayvon Walker the number one pick. Now you add

962
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 1: Devin Lloyd, the rookie linebacker out of Utah to number

963
00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,920
Speaker 1: one picks. They're gonna start on a defense that really

964
00:49:42,960 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 1: bottled up Wentz actually in both games. Now he did

965
00:49:45,840 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 1: win the other one, but he failed miserably. The Colts

966
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 1: kicked him of the curb. I think you gotta go

967
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 1: Jacks here or nothing. I'm gonna pass on Brown's Panthers.

968
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 1: I wanted to take Panthers. It was some Brown's money

969
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 1: that came in the lines. Now pick him. I kind

970
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: of want Panthers. I think Browns were a good teaser.

971
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 1: Leg As t A said a week ago. Here Colts Texas.

972
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:07,320
Speaker 1: I really really like the Colts to win this. I

973
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:08,920
Speaker 1: want to take him and survivor. But I'm I'm not

974
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 1: gonna lie. I'm scared of Reich season openers. He continuously fails.

975
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 1: Money has come in. This is eight down to seven

976
00:50:15,800 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 1: divisional matchup, big favorite on the road. These are just

977
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:21,920
Speaker 1: some red flags guys. So it's a tough one. Giants

978
00:50:21,960 --> 00:50:24,439
Speaker 1: I've talked about at nauseum here and on Cowherd Show.

979
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:25,960
Speaker 1: I am on them six and a half. I'll be

980
00:50:26,000 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 1: on him in the contest. I like the Giants. I

981
00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:32,960
Speaker 1: like them to win out right against the Titans, Packers, Vikings.

982
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 1: I like the Vikings this season. I don't like them

983
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 1: in this spot. Interesting nugget is Kevin O'Connell, the new

984
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:43,359
Speaker 1: Vikings coach. He's gonna be pretty damn good, pretty damn

985
00:50:43,400 --> 00:50:45,479
Speaker 1: good with the Vikings this year. I think the offense

986
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 1: is gonna look great. Here's my issue. That offense, that

987
00:50:50,000 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 1: Rams offense, when you bring it against this Packers defense,

988
00:50:53,920 --> 00:50:57,240
Speaker 1: it has struggled in two meetings. Go look at the numbers.

989
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 1: The Rams really struggle against his Packers defense. So does

990
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 1: that mean O'Connell's offense is gonna struggle. I don't know.

991
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 1: But if you remove Justin Jefferson with j R. Alexander

992
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:09,719
Speaker 1: and you win the battle to the line of scrimmage,

993
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:12,640
Speaker 1: is gonna be a big Jones Dylan running game from

994
00:51:12,680 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 1: the Packers. My brother, my brother, my son is starting

995
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 1: both of them this week. I advised him, I said, listen,

996
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:22,280
Speaker 1: Packers run defense kind of light. I don't see Aaron

997
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:26,560
Speaker 1: flinging it around, kind of like the Packers. Guys, Chiefs Cardinals.

998
00:51:26,560 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 1: It's Chiefs are passed for me. I just can't make

999
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:32,839
Speaker 1: a case run Dale More got hurt hamstrings, so they're

1000
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:35,280
Speaker 1: now down their top three receivers from last year. Kirk

1001
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: has gone, Hopkins suspended, More injured. Earth's may not play, Like,

1002
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 1: what are you doing taking the Cardinals here? I know

1003
00:51:43,280 --> 00:51:45,240
Speaker 1: you're betting a number, but you really got to focus

1004
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 1: on these injuries. Their center mr the practice time this week,

1005
00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 1: Andy reading openers. I know Jason McVeigh openers. Just I'm

1006
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:56,160
Speaker 1: rambily now. Um, I'm gonna go Chargers over the Raiders.

1007
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 1: I like the Chargers pick. I know it's always dicey,

1008
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 1: high scoring game, probably a field goal game. I'm gonna

1009
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 1: ride the Chargers, um, and then we'll talk about Seahawks

1010
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:09,520
Speaker 1: Broncos on Monday. Lastly, I'm gonna take the Buccaneers. Hopefully

1011
00:52:09,560 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 1: it doesn't hit three. I think I like Tampa to

1012
00:52:11,960 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 1: take down Dallas. All Right, guys, that's a long podcast. Uh,

1013
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:17,799
Speaker 1: enjoy the first week in of NFL. I'll be on

1014
00:52:17,920 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 1: social media more than I have on weekends in the

1015
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 1: past because NFL is back. One college football special for you.

1016
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,920
Speaker 1: Texas gets blown out in the first half Alabama first

1017
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,320
Speaker 1: half as a money play. I'll also have college football

1018
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 1: picks that will go up on the Fox website soon.

1019
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 1: Um I can. Just because you guys are great and

1020
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 1: listened this deep into the podcast, let me call up

1021
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 1: my document here. I am on Texas first half. I

1022
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 1: got South Carolina at eight and a half. They're at Arkansas.

1023
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 1: I got lucky against Arkansas last week because I got

1024
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:48,400
Speaker 1: the number early, but if you bet it late, you

1025
00:52:48,440 --> 00:52:51,239
Speaker 1: did not win that one. I'm on Stanford at ten

1026
00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: and a half and at nine and a half it's

1027
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 1: down to eight and a half. Now I know USC juggernaut.

1028
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:59,000
Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. Um Appalachian State. I will be on

1029
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:01,440
Speaker 1: first half at Texas A and M. They're in a

1030
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:05,399
Speaker 1: look ahead spot. They will face um Miami next week.

1031
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:08,160
Speaker 1: They don't care about app State. They're just gonna pull

1032
00:53:08,200 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: into yours second half and coast. I'm looking app State

1033
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:17,120
Speaker 1: first half. I really like that in I think that's

1034
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: in Yeah, that's in college station. And finally, um no,

1035
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 1: that's it. That's all I got enjoyed the weekend. Talk

1036
00:53:23,480 --> 00:53:24,600
Speaker 1: to you Monday,