1
00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,560
Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

2
00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,000
Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

3
00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:10,760
Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

4
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:19,600
Speaker 2: All right, here we go, throwing out job spectator.

5
00:00:20,360 --> 00:00:22,360
Speaker 3: We're setting up to cash to stop.

6
00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,200
Speaker 2: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

7
00:00:26,239 --> 00:00:26,640
Speaker 2: go to win.

8
00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:29,000
Speaker 3: God, that's incredible.

9
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:31,040
Speaker 2: Big bank, small bank.

10
00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:33,640
Speaker 3: I like to make money. All right, this is the

11
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:34,920
Speaker 3: ultimate kaban.

12
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:35,680
Speaker 2: You want to pull.

13
00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:40,560
Speaker 3: And we are Honderway.

14
00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,880
Speaker 4: And welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

15
00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:50,920
Speaker 4: Chris Raybond, and this is our NFL Week one betting preview.

16
00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:54,280
Speaker 4: I'm joined as always by my Action Network colleague and

17
00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:59,640
Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, my guy Stucky Stuck.

18
00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:00,600
Speaker 2: We made it.

19
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:05,040
Speaker 3: It's week one, We're here, Sundays are almost back, baby,

20
00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,080
Speaker 3: I could not be more excited.

21
00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:10,440
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Before we kick things off with our Thursday

22
00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:15,160
Speaker 4: night football preview and our complete Sunday preview of including

23
00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:19,240
Speaker 4: our six pack, just two very quick reminders. Number One,

24
00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:22,440
Speaker 4: if you plan to bet the NFL this season and

25
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,280
Speaker 4: haven't downloaded the free, award winning.

26
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,000
Speaker 2: Action Network app, what are you doing?

27
00:01:28,080 --> 00:01:32,360
Speaker 4: It's got betting tools analysis from myself Stucky and the

28
00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 4: whole Action Network team and to let you track every

29
00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,160
Speaker 4: bet that you make, So download the Action Network app

30
00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:40,280
Speaker 4: if you don't have it already.

31
00:01:40,560 --> 00:01:41,760
Speaker 2: And number two, we're.

32
00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:45,000
Speaker 4: Very excited to announce that the Action Pods Tournament of

33
00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:48,680
Speaker 4: Champions presented by bet MGM, is now live.

34
00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,800
Speaker 2: This is a free weekly Yahoo DFS.

35
00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:56,360
Speaker 4: Tournament specifically for you our podcast listeners, and you can

36
00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 4: join by clicking on the link in our episode description.

37
00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:03,680
Speaker 4: The op ten weekly finishers receive over one thousand dollars

38
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,320
Speaker 4: worth of Action Network prizes, and the top five finishers

39
00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,919
Speaker 4: each week punch their ticket to the wild Card Weekend

40
00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,959
Speaker 4: Grand Finale, where they'll compete for the grand.

41
00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,040
Speaker 2: Prize, a Las Vegas trip for two.

42
00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:21,440
Speaker 4: Valued at over five thousand dollars courtesy of bet mgm,

43
00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:27,359
Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the Action Network podcast. So again,

44
00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,400
Speaker 4: you guys can join this free DFS tournament every week

45
00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,760
Speaker 4: of the NFL regular season. Just click on the link

46
00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:39,720
Speaker 4: in our episode description. All right, let's get right into it, stuck.

47
00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,120
Speaker 4: Let's talk someone Thursday Night Football.

48
00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,520
Speaker 5: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

49
00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night Football.

50
00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:58,040
Speaker 4: So for Thursday Night Football week one season opener. We

51
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:02,440
Speaker 4: got a good one in Texans the Kansas City Chiefs.

52
00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:07,760
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes the Kansas City Chiefs nine and

53
00:03:07,800 --> 00:03:12,000
Speaker 4: a half point favorites, the total fifty four and a half,

54
00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:15,080
Speaker 4: sixty percent of the bet sixty nine percent of the

55
00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:18,120
Speaker 4: money on the Kansas City Chiefs stuck.

56
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:20,200
Speaker 2: What do you think of this game? Man? It should

57
00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:20,800
Speaker 2: be a good one.

58
00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm mainly just excited to have NFL back on

59
00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:25,680
Speaker 3: a Thursday night. I know there's gonna be you ab

60
00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:28,160
Speaker 3: Miami too. I'll be checking that out in college football.

61
00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:31,280
Speaker 3: But there's nothing like the primetime NFL and not like

62
00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:32,840
Speaker 3: a Sunday NFL say, which we're gonna get to, but

63
00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:36,920
Speaker 3: also just any Island primetime NFL game with the fantasy,

64
00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:39,760
Speaker 3: the betting, and for Twitter. And I'm excited for that

65
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,080
Speaker 3: to be back because I think Twitter is gonna be

66
00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,800
Speaker 3: awesome after people thought, are we gonna have a season?

67
00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:46,840
Speaker 3: Are we not? Everyone is gonna be betting it, your dentist,

68
00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,000
Speaker 3: your sister. I mean, it's gonna be someone's gonna be

69
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,520
Speaker 3: everyone's gonna be invested in some way. So I'm really excited.

70
00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:57,080
Speaker 3: I'm also really from a better perspective. It's a fascinating

71
00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:00,600
Speaker 3: season because there's so many variables that are gonna learn

72
00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:02,840
Speaker 3: about and you're good. You have to kind of guess

73
00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,760
Speaker 3: that early is tackling gonna be an issue for defenses?

74
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 3: I mean, look, think about the Chiefs. You know, the

75
00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,400
Speaker 3: Chiefs aren't hitting Patrick Mahomes. They're not hitting their star

76
00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,680
Speaker 3: players in practice. I mean they've been saying they've been

77
00:04:12,760 --> 00:04:16,200
Speaker 3: using like heavy bags. So like when you've seen some

78
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:18,440
Speaker 3: of this in college so far, is there just some

79
00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,600
Speaker 3: teams are just really rusty and can't even tackle on

80
00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,600
Speaker 3: a half back dive or you're gonna see some of that.

81
00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:28,960
Speaker 3: But does does any offensive continuity and timing with quarterbacks

82
00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:32,640
Speaker 3: and receivers and offensive line continuity? Does what outweighs what

83
00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:35,479
Speaker 3: the offense are the defense. There's gonna be exceptions to each,

84
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,200
Speaker 3: but just overall, you're gonna see more rotations and what

85
00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,560
Speaker 3: does that mean? Like players aren't up to game speed,

86
00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,400
Speaker 3: especially on the line. So I Brian floor, is that

87
00:04:43,560 --> 00:04:45,640
Speaker 3: Miami Dolphin said, coach talked about this today. Some of

88
00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,480
Speaker 3: these guys can't play sixty seventy eight he plays. Yet

89
00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 3: there's been no preseason, no camps. All this stuff most

90
00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 3: interesting than home field advantage. We're gonna finally maybe learn

91
00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,440
Speaker 3: about what fans are worth, but I don't even know

92
00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,680
Speaker 3: if we will. We will because there's gonna be some

93
00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 3: fans this week, and then we'll eventually get more back

94
00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:00,640
Speaker 3: can say.

95
00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,320
Speaker 2: Thousand eight Kansas City is gonna have sixteen's that's one

96
00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,599
Speaker 2: of the I believe that's the largest, if I'm not mistaken.

97
00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,200
Speaker 3: Now, Jags actually seventeen thousand.

98
00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 2: First of all, did the Jags even happen? You're gonna get.

99
00:05:11,760 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 3: Seventeen we're allowing. I don't know if you're gonna get it.

100
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,560
Speaker 3: We know the Chiefs will get sixteen thousand. They're the

101
00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 3: only two teams with fans this week, but then next

102
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,359
Speaker 3: week to the Colts, the Dolphins, the Cowboys might have

103
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:26,000
Speaker 3: like forty thousand, and then maybe the Brown So you're

104
00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:28,280
Speaker 3: gonna start to see fans. But does it is there

105
00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,560
Speaker 3: like a threshold where fans actually matter if they do

106
00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,960
Speaker 3: it all like and then the NFL teams are gonna

107
00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:36,520
Speaker 3: be pumping in seventy seventy decibel noise during the play

108
00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,240
Speaker 3: clock and game plock. But it's different. It's not like

109
00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,239
Speaker 3: the crowd gets really loud on the third and long

110
00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,200
Speaker 3: for the offensive line, it's gonna be more consistent. I

111
00:05:43,240 --> 00:05:44,840
Speaker 3: don't know. So there's a lot of interesting questions as

112
00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 3: far as.

113
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:46,760
Speaker 2: Let me ask you this, and let me ask you

114
00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:47,720
Speaker 2: let me put it to you this way that.

115
00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:51,080
Speaker 4: So we have some interesting kind of trends that I

116
00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,080
Speaker 4: will give you to frame you know, your analysis of

117
00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:55,800
Speaker 4: this game in terms of the home crowd and so

118
00:05:56,440 --> 00:06:01,560
Speaker 4: in Kansas City, arrowhead unders in the red Era are

119
00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,400
Speaker 4: thirty three, twenty two and one.

120
00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:04,920
Speaker 2: That's a sixty percent hit rate.

121
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:12,120
Speaker 4: And then home favorites on Thursday Night football are seventy three,

122
00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:16,599
Speaker 4: fifty and four over the past you know, decade plus

123
00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:20,200
Speaker 4: almost two decades. So you know, we have those two things,

124
00:06:20,440 --> 00:06:22,320
Speaker 4: you know, just giving you throwing those out there for

125
00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:23,640
Speaker 4: you as you kind of talk through this.

126
00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:28,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, the home favorite thing, I think there's some merit

127
00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,400
Speaker 3: to it, but I think it has to do more

128
00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:33,280
Speaker 3: with the short week and the short preparation and then

129
00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:37,160
Speaker 3: the superior team doesn't need as much time to prepare

130
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:38,840
Speaker 3: and they're at home. The other team on a short

131
00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:39,599
Speaker 3: weeks must say.

132
00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:41,680
Speaker 2: So does this an andy raid off? A by situation? Though?

133
00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:45,200
Speaker 6: Like this is more prep Sure, Yeah, so I think

134
00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,920
Speaker 6: that is that is certainly relevant here coaches with more

135
00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:49,840
Speaker 6: times repair there's you know, four or five in the

136
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 6: upper echelon your your Reads, your Belichick, your Harballs, who

137
00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,160
Speaker 6: have a lot of has to spread success and more

138
00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:56,200
Speaker 6: times to prepare the.

139
00:06:56,160 --> 00:06:59,320
Speaker 3: Thursday night football. I don't think that home favorite doesn't apply.

140
00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,839
Speaker 3: This week is the under? You know, some of these

141
00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,640
Speaker 3: over runner under trends I can't fall too much in

142
00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 3: love with because again, I think it's gonna come down

143
00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:12,800
Speaker 3: to what is We're gonna learn a lot about this game,

144
00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,360
Speaker 3: you know, and it's only one game, but just seeing

145
00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,760
Speaker 3: the first couple of games, is the offense way behind

146
00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:20,559
Speaker 3: the defense? What does this look like from a timing

147
00:07:20,560 --> 00:07:22,960
Speaker 3: and tackling perspective? So I don't want to get involved

148
00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:25,240
Speaker 3: in this total. And then for another reason, I look

149
00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:29,120
Speaker 3: at both secondaries against both elite quarterbacks and that really

150
00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:32,120
Speaker 3: scares me. I mean, for shod Briland is out and

151
00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 3: one of the best parts about the Chiefs defense last

152
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 3: years the end of last year, Ward and Briland really

153
00:07:36,160 --> 00:07:39,160
Speaker 3: started to come on the number one corner. Now essentially, yeah,

154
00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,120
Speaker 3: Wards in one quarter, Brelan's out the first four weeks

155
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,400
Speaker 3: that leads for Shod Fetten. In the only televised scrimmage

156
00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,480
Speaker 3: that the Chiefs had, jerryus Snead was the number two

157
00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,160
Speaker 3: corner played the yes and he's the fourth round pick

158
00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,920
Speaker 3: who played free safety last year La Tech. He did

159
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:55,720
Speaker 3: play corner three years before that. He was really good

160
00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:57,920
Speaker 3: for said the last year. But I mean it's I

161
00:07:57,920 --> 00:07:59,680
Speaker 3: know they're gonna play Honey Badger a lot in the slot,

162
00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:03,440
Speaker 3: assuming which he can do. But I mean you're trying

163
00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,080
Speaker 3: to cover some of these Will Fuller, Yeah, Will Fuller.

164
00:08:07,680 --> 00:08:09,520
Speaker 2: He's banged up, but it looks like he's gone.

165
00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:11,400
Speaker 3: It's but Fuller. I mean, there's been a lot of

166
00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 3: corners that come out said he's the hardest receiver in

167
00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:14,320
Speaker 3: the NFL at coups.

168
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 2: That's my guy.

169
00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,120
Speaker 4: Like, I love Will Fuller in fantasy this year, you

170
00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,760
Speaker 4: can't like miss games have shown to be extremely difficult

171
00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,160
Speaker 4: to actually predict, so you even though he's missed a

172
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 4: ton of games, you can't say he's gonna miss like eight,

173
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:25,000
Speaker 4: you know what I mean.

174
00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:26,200
Speaker 2: So I love Fuller.

175
00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,040
Speaker 4: I have an eighty to one ticket on him to

176
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:30,600
Speaker 4: lead the league in receiving. I think he's the guy

177
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:34,520
Speaker 4: for Deshaun Watson without DeAndre Hopkins.

178
00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:37,280
Speaker 2: So yeah, Fuller is going to be extremely difficult to cover.

179
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:40,000
Speaker 3: One of these guys have a lead speed or experience

180
00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:41,800
Speaker 3: are going to match up with them.

181
00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:44,280
Speaker 4: The one thing I'm curious as to your take on

182
00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 4: is last season we saw Houston use a lot of

183
00:08:47,880 --> 00:08:51,040
Speaker 4: to tight end right, and this year and in camp,

184
00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,040
Speaker 4: they've even talked about they want to be more multiple

185
00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,560
Speaker 4: in their offensive formations. They want to use more full

186
00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,600
Speaker 4: back with Cohen Joe Aspilla, they want to use more

187
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,720
Speaker 4: to tight end with Dan Akins and Darren Fels.

188
00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,520
Speaker 2: I wonder do you think that Houston goes along with

189
00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:06,640
Speaker 2: that kind of strategy.

190
00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,960
Speaker 4: Given the Chiefs weak point on defense, you would have

191
00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:12,360
Speaker 4: to think uh is at the cornerback position.

192
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:14,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's an interesting dynamic. It's like, do

193
00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 3: you let Watson try and go crazy and you know

194
00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:19,440
Speaker 3: that the Chiefs are gonna like bring blitz, They're going

195
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:21,040
Speaker 3: to bring pressure to try to make up for some

196
00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:23,600
Speaker 3: of their corner issues. But you can also run on

197
00:09:23,640 --> 00:09:27,360
Speaker 3: the Chiefs and then you want to you have major

198
00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,960
Speaker 3: corner issues too against Mahomes, right, you have I mean,

199
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,199
Speaker 3: Hargreaves is going to be out there again, you might

200
00:09:33,320 --> 00:09:34,319
Speaker 3: use John Reid.

201
00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:37,920
Speaker 2: I'm red actually, I think he's.

202
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,280
Speaker 4: A better matchup for this game, you know, going against Tyreek,

203
00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:42,680
Speaker 4: who plays in a slot of ton. So I think

204
00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,280
Speaker 4: I would like the camp purports have been that Reid

205
00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,640
Speaker 4: has been playing well, hard Grave is not so much.

206
00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:49,800
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised to see Reid get like the

207
00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,120
Speaker 4: majority of the snaps, even if hard Graves is helping.

208
00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:54,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, but what you're gonna have. They're gonna

209
00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:55,360
Speaker 3: have to have three corners out there, a lot for

210
00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,319
Speaker 3: the and then you know Conley's on the ir Lonnie

211
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,000
Speaker 3: Johnson is hurt, so you might have Harger's out there,

212
00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,280
Speaker 3: and you have Bradley Roby who's decent. So you have

213
00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,600
Speaker 3: questions on your defense as well. So do the Texans

214
00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:08,600
Speaker 3: come out and say we're gonna run the ball because

215
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,360
Speaker 3: you can run on the Chiefs and then we'll take

216
00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,520
Speaker 3: it periodic shots, but we'll go heavier to control the ball,

217
00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,360
Speaker 3: keep it out of Mahomes' hands. Or do they just say, look,

218
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,079
Speaker 3: we can throw in this team. Let's let the Sean

219
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 3: Watson go to work. There's some good offensive defensive line

220
00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,200
Speaker 3: matchups here. Ken how much can Watt impact the game.

221
00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:26,480
Speaker 3: And then how much will the I've mentioned this on

222
00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,559
Speaker 3: a bunch of more preseason pods, how much will the

223
00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:33,200
Speaker 3: new defensive coordinator in Anthony Weaver and Weaver change their scheme?

224
00:10:33,280 --> 00:10:34,800
Speaker 3: Will they blitz a lot more? But they didn't do

225
00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:36,959
Speaker 3: it enough last year and they because they have good

226
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,559
Speaker 3: secondary it didn't matter how much what you dropped into

227
00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:41,599
Speaker 3: coverage if you didn't get pressure. Now you have what

228
00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:45,160
Speaker 3: will the scheme change? Watt had some success against Schwartz

229
00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:46,559
Speaker 3: is an elite right tackle when they played in the

230
00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:47,240
Speaker 3: regular season.

231
00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:50,720
Speaker 4: We uh so from my understanding, he's kind of a

232
00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:52,640
Speaker 4: Rex Ryan disciple a little bit.

233
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:54,319
Speaker 3: So I don't know what ste blitzing.

234
00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, you'll blitz, but it's not necessarily like they'll bring

235
00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:00,880
Speaker 4: extra guys in and drop few guys in a coverage

236
00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:03,040
Speaker 4: as much as it seems like he wants to vary

237
00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:06,400
Speaker 4: who comes right, so more corners coming off the edge,

238
00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:09,880
Speaker 4: which which is you know, that's dangerous against Patrick Mahomes.

239
00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:13,040
Speaker 4: But I'm guessing that's what we do see because you know,

240
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,559
Speaker 4: Houston under Crenell and like that kind of that kind

241
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 4: of scheme, they just they were extremely conservative anytime.

242
00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:19,800
Speaker 2: They got a weed.

243
00:11:19,920 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 4: They played a lot of man coverage and there just

244
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,520
Speaker 4: wasn't much creativity. So at this point, I mean, what

245
00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,440
Speaker 4: did you give up fifty points to Mahomes in three

246
00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:30,160
Speaker 4: quarters and in the playoff matchup, you might as well try.

247
00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,920
Speaker 2: Something new and a little more aggressive.

248
00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:33,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the Chiefs were on a fifty one

249
00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:35,360
Speaker 3: to seven run in that game, and I mean they

250
00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,040
Speaker 3: had The Texans had Lonnie Johnson on Travis Kelcey and

251
00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,840
Speaker 3: he got abused. If they have Lonnie Johnson on Travis

252
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:42,920
Speaker 3: Kelcey again, I will lie that the shit out of

253
00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:46,000
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. What Weaver does philosophically will tell me more

254
00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 3: about the Texans potential going forward, because I do want

255
00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:51,720
Speaker 3: to just see them try things. Even if you don't

256
00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:53,920
Speaker 3: have much success against Mahomes, right, you don't have great corners,

257
00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,480
Speaker 3: and Mahomes can just drop back the twenty yards and

258
00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,240
Speaker 3: then just throw it all the way down field. He can.

259
00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:00,800
Speaker 3: He's obviously mobile. He's now healthy, you know when they

260
00:12:00,840 --> 00:12:02,960
Speaker 3: played in the regular season. His ankle was banged up

261
00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:04,800
Speaker 3: when the Texans won that game. But I do just

262
00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:06,200
Speaker 3: want to see it. I don't know if it's gonna

263
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:07,559
Speaker 3: lead to them having a chance to win this game.

264
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:11,480
Speaker 3: I make this ten point two ish, and it's a

265
00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,040
Speaker 3: game that if I loved either side, maybe I would

266
00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,199
Speaker 3: bet it. But if the line is right around where

267
00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:19,880
Speaker 3: I have it and it's I mean, I'm gonna look

268
00:12:19,880 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 3: to see if I could bet it live. But it's

269
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 3: a game that I can just because I don't love it,

270
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,480
Speaker 3: I can look. I can just at least observe some

271
00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,640
Speaker 3: all these questions that I have on Night one. So

272
00:12:29,679 --> 00:12:32,000
Speaker 3: unfortunately I don't love anything night one, but there's a

273
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:33,040
Speaker 3: lot I'll be watching for.

274
00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I took the Chiefs at nine and a half

275
00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,800
Speaker 4: when the line first came out. I have it at

276
00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:39,600
Speaker 4: ten and a half myself, so I'm kind of right

277
00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:43,640
Speaker 4: with you. You can check out our Action Network power ratings

278
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,760
Speaker 4: and projected spreads at actionnetwork dot com.

279
00:12:47,160 --> 00:12:51,760
Speaker 2: Right now, I do lean over in this game.

280
00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,480
Speaker 4: I know that you know, there's a there's some there's

281
00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:56,640
Speaker 4: some people, some smart people on the under as well.

282
00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,760
Speaker 4: But I look at this game and I look at

283
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,000
Speaker 4: the continuity that the Chiefs have on offense. Out of

284
00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:03,560
Speaker 4: all the teams in the league, you have the team

285
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 4: with the best offense. Also with the most offensive continuity.

286
00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:11,240
Speaker 4: You have a Texans team that they can get into

287
00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:11,920
Speaker 4: a shootout.

288
00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:14,400
Speaker 2: They have you know, they're four deep at receiver. They

289
00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:15,520
Speaker 2: can go down the field.

290
00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,040
Speaker 4: You know, remember Hopkins only had eleven point three yards

291
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,520
Speaker 4: per catch last year. Now, you know, replacing him with

292
00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,480
Speaker 4: guys like Cooks and Stills and you know, I know

293
00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:24,240
Speaker 4: they have Cobb is a true slot. But you know

294
00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,559
Speaker 4: they could actually go further, you know, down the field

295
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:28,960
Speaker 4: more this year even than they did last year.

296
00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,640
Speaker 2: You mentioned it too, the Chiefs, they'll let you run

297
00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,240
Speaker 2: on them if they do get into a situation where

298
00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:36,640
Speaker 2: they know you need to, you know, pass a little

299
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:37,400
Speaker 2: bit more. So.

300
00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 4: I think all these factors, I think one way or another,

301
00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,000
Speaker 4: we could kind of see this game get up there

302
00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,600
Speaker 4: in the points and out of any game really in

303
00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,360
Speaker 4: Week one. If you look at a game and say, okay,

304
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:49,840
Speaker 4: this is going to be a high scoring game, and

305
00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,160
Speaker 4: that doesn't necessarily mean it goes over, but the odds

306
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,160
Speaker 4: are one and there's going to be a game that

307
00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:56,640
Speaker 4: gets into the mid to high fifties, I would I

308
00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:57,800
Speaker 4: would say it would be this one.

309
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, completely agree. I think it's over nothing if there's

310
00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:04,040
Speaker 3: like some turnovers early and some flukes field goals and

311
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,160
Speaker 3: I can get a good live over. I may look

312
00:14:06,160 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 3: there because you have two great quarterbacks, two great receiving corps,

313
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:13,640
Speaker 3: two questionable secondaries due to injuries and other factors. So yeah,

314
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,480
Speaker 3: I think it's it's it's over nothing. From a total perspective,

315
00:14:16,520 --> 00:14:17,880
Speaker 3: I don't care square it is the last thing I'll

316
00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,120
Speaker 3: throw out on this game is, oh wait, there's gonna

317
00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:21,720
Speaker 3: be a let down for the super Bowl winner. You

318
00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:23,920
Speaker 3: hear that from someone who's said that every year in

319
00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:26,040
Speaker 3: every sport, really for the champion. But super Bowl winners

320
00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:29,440
Speaker 3: fourteen and six against the spread since two thousand in

321
00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:30,440
Speaker 3: the opening week.

322
00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:32,440
Speaker 2: How much so? How many of those are New England?

323
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:37,240
Speaker 3: Yeah a lot? But yeah New England. Surprisingly, Yeah, New

324
00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:39,120
Speaker 3: England has covered a lot when they've won the Super

325
00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,480
Speaker 3: Bowl in Week one, not other we'll get to that.

326
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,080
Speaker 3: The Super Bowl losers have struggled more the next season

327
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:46,920
Speaker 3: end in week one, but super Bowl winners there hasn't

328
00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,160
Speaker 3: been a letdown. They're usually at home. It's not like

329
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,720
Speaker 3: you know, an NBA game where you get your rings

330
00:14:51,800 --> 00:14:53,720
Speaker 3: or something and then the game doesn't mean that much.

331
00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 3: This is still an NFL regular season game, where like

332
00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 3: it's one of sixteen You're not going to be like,

333
00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:00,840
Speaker 3: who cares about this game? It could be up for

334
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 3: this game, just like every team in the NFL is Yeah.

335
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,840
Speaker 4: And Andy Reid in particular in Week ones we talked.

336
00:15:07,600 --> 00:15:11,400
Speaker 2: About he's usually good with extra preparation. He's five and

337
00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:14,320
Speaker 2: two against the spread with the Kansas City Chiefs in

338
00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:15,600
Speaker 2: Week ones, so I expect the.

339
00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,560
Speaker 4: Chiefs to come out strong on Thursday Night football. And

340
00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:21,720
Speaker 4: speaking of Thursday Night football, bet MGM has a great

341
00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,360
Speaker 4: sign up offer on tonight's game.

342
00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:25,040
Speaker 2: New customers can bet.

343
00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,440
Speaker 4: One dollar and win one hundred in free bets if

344
00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes throws one touchdown pass in the game. Just

345
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,440
Speaker 4: sign up and make your first bet using bonus code

346
00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:36,600
Speaker 4: Action one hundred.

347
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:37,680
Speaker 2: So download the.

348
00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 4: Bet MGM AP today or visit betmgm dot com to

349
00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 4: sign up and use the code Action one hundred to

350
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,680
Speaker 4: bet one dollar and win one hundred and free bets

351
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,280
Speaker 4: if Mahomes tosses one TD pass tonight. As a reminder,

352
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,920
Speaker 4: you must be twenty one or older and physically located

353
00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,600
Speaker 4: in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada, or West Virginia. Please

354
00:15:57,640 --> 00:16:00,840
Speaker 4: gamble responsibly. Have a gambling probably called one one hundred

355
00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,840
Speaker 4: five to two four seven zero zero in Colorado and Nevada.

356
00:16:03,880 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 4: One eight hundred gam we're in New Jersey in West

357
00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:08,440
Speaker 4: Virginia or one eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana.

358
00:16:08,520 --> 00:16:10,600
Speaker 2: Promo offer not available in Nevada.

359
00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,680
Speaker 4: Next up, Stuck and I will each give you our

360
00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:17,440
Speaker 4: three favorite bets of the week in the Sunday six Pack.

361
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 2: But first, here's our coaches pep talk.

362
00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,040
Speaker 4: This week's pep talk comes to us from Robin Williams

363
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:26,200
Speaker 4: in the film Good Will Hunting, and.

364
00:16:26,120 --> 00:16:30,000
Speaker 2: We're dedicating it to the rookie Clyde Edwards. Hilaire.

365
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 3: You know what occurred to me.

366
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:33,960
Speaker 4: You're just a kid.

367
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,040
Speaker 3: I look at you. I don't see an intelligent confidence man.

368
00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: I see a cocky, scared, shitless kid. That could have

369
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,240
Speaker 3: also been Bill O'Brien talking to himself in the mirror before.

370
00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, the Bill O'Brien Slanders Live. We are back,

371
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 4: baby NFL football. It is time for our Sunday six Pack.

372
00:16:58,560 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 2: Let's get into it.

373
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:06,720
Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

374
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,600
Speaker 2: Okay, you haven't been listening before.

375
00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 4: The Sunday six Pack is when Stuck and I each

376
00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 4: draft our three favorite bets. So it's essentially a six

377
00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 4: bet draft of all the sides for Sunday, so we

378
00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 4: can choose any side. We can't choose the same side,

379
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 4: but if we're on opposite sides, that works. We keep

380
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 4: score all season. Our top pick is worth two points,

381
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,439
Speaker 4: our other picks are worth one each. And then we

382
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 4: also will choose our favorite total in the segment after this,

383
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,240
Speaker 4: and that will also counter point, and we'll keep the

384
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,919
Speaker 4: score and we'll see what's up at the end of

385
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:46,520
Speaker 4: the season. I am the current victor with a narrow,

386
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 4: narrow edge Overstuck last season, so I know Stuck is

387
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,920
Speaker 4: rearing to go. But I do have the first pick,

388
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 4: so I'm gonna start it off with the first pick,

389
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:02,680
Speaker 4: pick number one, for our Sunday sixth pack. I am

390
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:06,840
Speaker 4: going with the Buffalo Bills minus six and a half

391
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 4: at home against the New York Football Jets.

392
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:13,520
Speaker 2: The Bills make me.

393
00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:20,080
Speaker 7: Throw your hands up and throw your hands come now,

394
00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:20,760
Speaker 7: the Bills.

395
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,119
Speaker 2: I'm making it now.

396
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:26,280
Speaker 4: First of all, the Jets, just their injury report is

397
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 4: a mile long already. I don't know what receivers they're

398
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 4: gonna they're gonna have on Sunday. Hogan looks like he's hurt.

399
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 4: Brashad Perriman has had n swelling all camp. We don't

400
00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 4: know if he's one hundred percent.

401
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,840
Speaker 2: Denzel Mims has missed most of camp and he's a rookie.

402
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:42,959
Speaker 2: Crowder popped up on the injury report.

403
00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,400
Speaker 4: It's really tough for the for the Jets, and you're

404
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,600
Speaker 4: going against one of the better defenses in the league,

405
00:18:49,720 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 4: and you're going against a team that already was a

406
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 4: tough matchup, I think for you because great safety play.

407
00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,120
Speaker 2: They're not gonna give up any you know, free play.

408
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 4: They're gonna force you to come to go up and

409
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,080
Speaker 4: down the field, which is not really a strength of

410
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 4: the Jets. You know, decent against the run, not not great,

411
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:09,280
Speaker 4: had some issues earlier but kind of plugged it up late.

412
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,720
Speaker 4: And a team that is going to just be able to,

413
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 4: I think move the ball on the Jets on the

414
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 4: other side, because you have Josh Allen and you have

415
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 4: Singletary and Moss with this running game, but you also

416
00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 4: have Stefan Diggs and Josh Allen's main issue last year

417
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 4: was that he was three of twenty seven targeting all

418
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:31,600
Speaker 4: receivers not named John Brown.

419
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:32,119
Speaker 2: Deep.

420
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:35,120
Speaker 4: Now you're gonna have Stefan Diggs, who is the best

421
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,199
Speaker 4: deep ball receiver in the league, come in. I expect

422
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:41,880
Speaker 4: a much more efficient Josh Allen and I just don't

423
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 4: see a way for the Jets to put up enough

424
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,360
Speaker 4: points in this game to outscore the Bills.

425
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: And I don't and I don't see them, you know,

426
00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 2: moving the ball.

427
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 4: I don't see them holding the Bills offense on the

428
00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 4: other end under let's say twenty one points, which is

429
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,640
Speaker 4: probably what they're going to need to do to cover

430
00:19:58,680 --> 00:20:01,280
Speaker 4: the spread. So I'm going with the Bills to win

431
00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 4: by a touchdown or more. The Jets, I think they're

432
00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:06,800
Speaker 4: still being a little overrated. After last year six and

433
00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:12,320
Speaker 4: two finish. You had victories against the Giants, the Dolphins,

434
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,399
Speaker 4: and the Redskins, three of the worst teams in the league.

435
00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 4: You had the Raiders coming west to east for an

436
00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,919
Speaker 4: early start that's an easy wet down spot where you

437
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 4: know the Jets capitalized. You had the Jets going against

438
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh with Devlyn Hodges a quarterback. Yeah, and then you

439
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:29,680
Speaker 4: have them winning against the Bills in Week seventeen when

440
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 4: they rest of their starters, and that's how they Jets

441
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 4: got to six win you know, got to you know,

442
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:36,520
Speaker 4: six and two to finish the season.

443
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:38,880
Speaker 2: I don't think it was really a Sam Donald thing.

444
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 4: Donald we have nearly a thousand dropbacks of him being

445
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 4: below average in pretty much every category as a passer,

446
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 4: you know, sub sixty percent completion rate, you know, six

447
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 4: point nine yards per attempt. It there's just nothing about

448
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 4: the Jets that screams that they can keep it close

449
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 4: against the equality football team in the Buffalo Bills.

450
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I completely agree with you. I'm solo

451
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 3: on the Jets. If you've listened to your podcast, you

452
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:09,639
Speaker 3: know that I'm low and darn and a low and

453
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 3: gase and it's like, hey, we got Mosley and Adams

454
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 3: still in defense or defense that well now you don't

455
00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:18,520
Speaker 3: and all these receiver injuries and it's like, well, Herndon

456
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 3: is gonna be the Well the Bills not only do

457
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:23,359
Speaker 3: they take away everything deep, they're elite at covering tight ends. Yes,

458
00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 3: I don't know what the Jets are gonna do, I'll say,

459
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,719
Speaker 3: And also the Bills, I will say, from everything I've

460
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,560
Speaker 3: looked into, one of the most I think one of

461
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: the most impactful or the group that will be impacted

462
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 3: the most by no preseason, and then all the shortened

463
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 3: preparation will be offensive lines that are brand new, and

464
00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,199
Speaker 3: so much of offensive lines are continuity, and it's just

465
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,679
Speaker 3: communication getting used to seeing all these different stunts and

466
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 3: blitz is. You just need time to gel and who's

467
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,639
Speaker 3: getting who, and so you're not blowing assignments. The Jets

468
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,080
Speaker 3: have a brand new offensive line. The Bills five new

469
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 3: star five starters back. They replaced the offensive line last year.

470
00:21:55,359 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 3: The Bills just have that coaching roster continuity from last year.

471
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 3: A team that I want to back early on or

472
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 3: have no problem backing, whereas I think the Jets are gonna.

473
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 3: I mean the Jets. Also now you're replacing your most

474
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 3: important defensive player. Questions in the secondary I have. I'll

475
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 3: save some more thoughts in this game because I have

476
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 3: it later for another bet, so I'll move on. But

477
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:18,359
Speaker 3: I agree with you. I make it over seven. So

478
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,040
Speaker 3: no calls from me that when you took it with

479
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 3: your first overall pick, I was upset because it was

480
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:26,879
Speaker 3: going to likely be one of my picks, and I

481
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 3: was gonna pick it early because I knew that you

482
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 3: would probably go there. So that was the benefit of

483
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 3: you winning last year. You get the bills week one

484
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 3: all right, So for pick number two in our Sunday

485
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:42,520
Speaker 3: six pack, I'm going with the Miami Dolphins, which at

486
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 3: bet MGM or official odds provider, the line is six

487
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 3: and a half. Now wait to see if you can

488
00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 3: get a seven. If you can't, buy it cheap to seven.

489
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 3: I also have another article on tips for beginners and

490
00:22:52,720 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 3: NFL so you want to know about key numbers when

491
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 3: to buy. Basically just on the three or seven under

492
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: fifteen cents. It's good rule of thumb. When I looked

493
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 3: at my picks three ds this week, I was like,

494
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 3: oh my god, I can't believe this. But I can

495
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 3: because usually in week one. We have an article on

496
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 3: Action network dot com in the Action app if you

497
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 3: haven't checked it out. I have my one hundred burning

498
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:12,359
Speaker 3: questions about every NFL team. I gotta do another update

499
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 3: tonight with all the injuries. It's a good place to

500
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 3: go and just keep up with everything and get a primer.

501
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 3: In addition to this podcast, we also have a piece

502
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 3: on betting the worst teams from the year before and

503
00:23:22,080 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 3: how profitable it's beening. It makes sense in the overreaction

504
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:26,560
Speaker 3: of the NFL market, so all these teams I didn't

505
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 3: want to bet last year. I'm like the first week

506
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 3: I'm betting them, So it's kind of in line with that.

507
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is my first pick of the season.

508
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 3: I'm fading Bill Belichick. But if you're going to fade

509
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 3: Bill Belichick, it's not smart. Him and Brady were like

510
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 3: sixty percent against the spread together in their careers, which

511
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 3: spanned from like two thousand and two long. If you're

512
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:49,199
Speaker 3: going to fade them, you do it early on in

513
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: the season. Specifically Week one with Brady the Pats went

514
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 3: eight eight and one against the spread, and season openers

515
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 3: they were sixty percent against spread all the weeks something

516
00:23:57,800 --> 00:23:59,440
Speaker 3: to that, And a lot of X players have said

517
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 3: this that they Belichick will kind of tweak some like

518
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 3: play around with some certain things in weeks one weeks two.

519
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 3: And you've seen slow starts by the Patriots before, and

520
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 3: I last you this schedule was just so damn easy

521
00:24:09,760 --> 00:24:11,920
Speaker 3: that there was no way they were gonna start slow.

522
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:15,920
Speaker 3: But it's happened before, and with this shortened preparation, all

523
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 3: the opt outs that they had just but just take

524
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 3: the shortened preparation alone, you would think that would hurt

525
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 3: Belichick the most. You give Belichick more time, He's gonna

526
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,840
Speaker 3: do more with it, right, But all the opt outs

527
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: to just throw a wrench in here. They're rebuilding their

528
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 3: front seven. Some of the losses in the secondary will

529
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 3: actually hurt too. You know you're gonna have a new offense,

530
00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 3: you have a new quarterback, he lost Canona tackle. You're

531
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 3: receiving options are really questionable, your tight ends as well.

532
00:24:41,520 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 3: Everything about this team. I'm much lower than than the

533
00:24:44,280 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 3: entire world. Maybe corner too. And although I think it's Kerner,

534
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 3: I think we've been pronouncing his name wrong. And IPI

535
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,640
Speaker 3: I apologize to sea On someone. I think Katie told

536
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 3: me that to their day. So but I'm okay here

537
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: taking seven which if makes sure you get it, which

538
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: just to throw out another trend here, and I'm not

539
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,280
Speaker 3: a huge trend player, but something I always said is

540
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 3: I don't like laying seven or more in Week one

541
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 3: in a divisional game, and then numbers back that up.

542
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 3: I mean, seven point favorites are more in Week one

543
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:18,240
Speaker 3: of the NFL season over since two thousand and three

544
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: are twenty and twenty nine against the spread. Not a

545
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 3: huge sample size, but it's just not great. Results in

546
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 3: the division. Division favorites of seven or more in Week

547
00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 3: one are six and twelve against the spread. It's not

548
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 3: a huge sample size, but just for reference there, But

549
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 3: I just like, you know, the Patriots, the Patriots, there's

550
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:40,199
Speaker 3: so many questions on this roster, so much turnover, and

551
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 3: the Dolphins have a lot of familiarity with this team.

552
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 3: Not only there's a lot of X players, their coaches

553
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 3: are familiar with what the Patriots want to do. And

554
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 3: I know there's the Cam factor and there's going to

555
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,159
Speaker 3: be some newness here, but I just think it's too

556
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: many points. I'm just much lower on the Patriots. This

557
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 3: is the time to fade them, I think. And I

558
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 3: know the Dolphins have a new offensive coordinator, but Fitzpatrick's

559
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,879
Speaker 3: familiar with him. Fitzpatrick's had some success against the Patriots

560
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:10,880
Speaker 3: before fitzmagicic He's beat them with starting for the Dolphins,

561
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 3: the Jets, and the Bills. He's a little unpredictable, which

562
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 3: I think works in his favor because the Patriots and

563
00:26:16,800 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 3: Bill Belchick are so good at planning against tendencies and

564
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 3: taking away you know your what you do best. But

565
00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: Fitzpatrick's kind of a wild card, right and that's why

566
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 3: sometimes you mean that last year they beat him a

567
00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 3: seventeen point underdogs or whatever it was in the last

568
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 3: week to take away that buy from the Patriots. So

569
00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 3: I know that there's some injuries on the Dolphins on

570
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 3: the receiving front with Parker and Williams, I'm hoping that

571
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 3: they'll be able to play, which will help. But yeah,

572
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: as long as you can get seven here, I like

573
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 3: the Dolphins in a Week one divisional matchup. I think

574
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,480
Speaker 3: that there's gonna be some growing pains for the Patriots.

575
00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 3: And look, the Dolphins offhense line will be a little better,

576
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: especially in this year, and they actually now have running

577
00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 3: backs who could run the ball, and the Patriots are

578
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:02,040
Speaker 3: gonna be weak upfront, so just you're gonna have some

579
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 3: big place from Fitzpatrick and at least still be able

580
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 3: to just run it forward when they do, which they

581
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 3: couldn't do last year. So that'll help in like getting

582
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: you know, easier passing situations or converting third and ones

583
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 3: or things of that nature. But yeah, I think that

584
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 3: the you hope Zavien Howard can play. I'm not sure

585
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 3: how much he is, but they have good corners now.

586
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,480
Speaker 3: I think they can shut down the Patriots passing attack,

587
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: and I just I'm just lowing the Patriots. It's not

588
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 3: a surprise he him fade in then Week one.

589
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely.

590
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 4: I took the Dolphins as seven and a half point

591
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,719
Speaker 4: dogs when these lines first opened. I think there's a

592
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 4: lot of question marks as to how good this offense

593
00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 4: can be with Cam Newton. I found it odd that

594
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 4: he was signed so weight in the process. You know

595
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,919
Speaker 4: that that doesn't seem like a very patriot thing to do,

596
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 4: Like go through all the offseason, you know, zoom meetings

597
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 4: or whatever, and you have one quarterback and then you

598
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,080
Speaker 4: bring this other guy in, you know, at the end

599
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 4: of July, beginning of August, and then you know Stidham

600
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 4: mysteriously hurts his leg and all of a sudden, Cam

601
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 4: is But we're not announcing it to the world, just

602
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 4: to our team. And you look at what what kind

603
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,240
Speaker 4: of sunk them last year, and it was a lack

604
00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 4: of separation from their receivers. Tom Brady led the league

605
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: and throwaways with forty five had, you know, the worst

606
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,520
Speaker 4: completion percentage he's had. You know in quite some time

607
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 4: that that's sixty point eight percent. That does not play

608
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 4: well into Cam Newton's strengths. And then you look at

609
00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 4: Josh McDaniels and he's gonna be the guy that's gonna

610
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 4: be charged with, you know, making this offense work with

611
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 4: Cam Well, Josh McDaniels, you know, since he's been the

612
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 4: coordinator of New England, he started in six there was

613
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 4: a brief hiatus from you know, two thousand and nine

614
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 4: to twenty eleven. You know, every year that McDaniels has

615
00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 4: been with Brady, they've been top eight in points, and

616
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 4: they've been top above averaging yards with a low of fifteen.

617
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 4: The three years that he was not with Tom Brady,

618
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 4: you know, two years in Denver and won with Saint Louis, twentieth,

619
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 4: nineteen and thirty second in points, fifteenth, thirteenth, and thirty

620
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 4: first in yards. So Josh McDaniels without Tom Brady, this

621
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 4: is another situation where and remember he goes to Indianapolis

622
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 4: and I think he gets worried that like Andrew luck

623
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 4: may not be you know that you know that good,

624
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 4: that healthy or whatever, and kind of re backs out

625
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 4: of that. So you know, I would worry about him,

626
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 4: and and yeah, the familiarity I think with Brian Flores

627
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 4: and we've seen this with Matt Patricia Go you know,

628
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 4: beat New England early in the year in the past.

629
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 2: So I love to pick. I think that's a great.

630
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 4: Pick, and what I think we'll talk about a little

631
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 4: more a little later in the show. Okay, for pick

632
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 4: number three in our Sunday six pack, I'm going with

633
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 4: the Carolina Panthers plus three and a half hosting the

634
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 4: Las Vegas Raiders. I think this is more of a

635
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 4: toss up game than people think. I know the Panthers

636
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,640
Speaker 4: were extremely bad last year, but I think that Teddy

637
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 4: Bridgewater actually will add a decent amount to this team

638
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 4: because this was one of the two worst quarterback teams

639
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 4: in the league or three worst quarterback teams in the league,

640
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 4: including Pittsburgh in Washington last year. Teddy Bridgewater, even if

641
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 4: he's average, which he's probably around average, could be a

642
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 4: little above. But even if he's average, that changes a

643
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,960
Speaker 4: lot for this offense. There is some continuity there with

644
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:26,400
Speaker 4: Teddy even though he's going to a new team. They

645
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: have a new head coach, offensive coordinator Joe Brett. Brady

646
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 4: and Teddy Bridgewater were together in New Orleans in twenty eighteen,

647
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 4: so Teddy's not wearing a new offense. He's been able

648
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 4: to kind of help guys out in camp with picking

649
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 4: things up faster because he already knows this offense. I

650
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 4: expect Carolina to be a lot different in terms of

651
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 4: their packages this year, a lot more four wide receiver,

652
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 4: something Las Vegas is not going to be able to

653
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: really have prepared for. And then you look at the

654
00:30:53,840 --> 00:30:57,920
Speaker 4: reasons why we're kind of a little more bullish on

655
00:30:57,960 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 4: the Raiders than usual.

656
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 2: They had some draft picks.

657
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 4: You know, Henry Ruggs, explosive guy, they add him to

658
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 4: the team, But Christian McCaffrey is still the most dynamic

659
00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:08,080
Speaker 4: player in this game.

660
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 2: He's still on Carolina. And then you know, even with

661
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: the quarterback situation, you know, Derek carrd a good year

662
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: last year, But is Derek Carr really ain't better than

663
00:31:16,520 --> 00:31:19,400
Speaker 2: Teddy Bridgewater. I don't think so. Teddy Bridgewater.

664
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 4: We also have that twenty eight and seven record against

665
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 4: the spread as they starting quarterback in his career going

666
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 4: for him. You know the weakness of Carolina, We know

667
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 4: the main weakness really besides the quarterback position for them

668
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 4: last year was their defense. They were you know, number

669
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 4: twenty six in DVOA. They were really bad against the rush,

670
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 4: dead last, but this Vegas team, their defense not really

671
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 4: much better. In fact, they finished worse overall in defensive

672
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 4: DVOA at number thirty one. And remember well, the Raiders

673
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 4: were out drafting a whole bunch of offense, one of

674
00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 4: one of the players which they already traded to Miami

675
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 4: and went bouten. The Raiders were rafting offense, the Panthers

676
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:05,160
Speaker 4: spent every single draft pick on defense. So I'm not

677
00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: saying that pays off immediately, but I don't think there's

678
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 4: that big of a gap between these two teams. I

679
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 4: know there's no home field advantage necessarily or not as

680
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 4: much as usual.

681
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 2: But Carouhina at home.

682
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 4: I think these teams are a lot more even than

683
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 4: the three and a half point spread indicate.

684
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: So I am rolling with the Panthers.

685
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 4: I think they win this game outright, but going with

686
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 4: them to cover three and a half against the Vegas

687
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 4: Raiders in Week one, I think.

688
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 3: This is actually a good under the radar over bet

689
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 3: forty seven and a half. Now you're gonna have this

690
00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 3: Brady passing offense, and there's some weapons on the outside

691
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: with More and Samuel against a secondary that's just not great.

692
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 3: I mean it's so young. I mean it's our Nett

693
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,479
Speaker 3: and Mullin they I mean it's a rookie and a

694
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 3: second year player. And then LaMarcus Joiner is so bad

695
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 3: in the slot. I mean that's their cornerback group. They

696
00:32:57,000 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 3: let Prince Backmore go and like, I don't know why,

697
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 3: I mean, he doesn't much left, but at least it

698
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 3: was like a veteran guy. Their defense was awful last year.

699
00:33:03,640 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 3: I mean, it was the first team in NFL history

700
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,360
Speaker 3: to not have a sack or pick from a all

701
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,520
Speaker 3: season from a linebacker or defensive back. And the coaching

702
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 3: I don't know how Gunther just keeps his job. They don't.

703
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 3: They're just not aggressive enough. The scheme is really poor.

704
00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 3: So I think the Panthers can have some success if

705
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 3: you want to take the Raiders, look at the first half.

706
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: I think they're going to come out though they should

707
00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 3: be able to run the ball. I know that the

708
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 3: Panthers are changing schemes to a format front, which should

709
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 3: help against the run. But I mean, you lose Luke Keigley,

710
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:33,880
Speaker 3: it's not great. Then they lose the you know, their

711
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 3: top two or three performing corners last year. So you know,

712
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 3: you would think that Waller is going to have some success.

713
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: Jacob's gonna have success. You're gonna be able to throw

714
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 3: in the Panthers at least early on against this young

715
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,720
Speaker 3: secondary defense going through some But I also think that

716
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 3: the Panthers will be able to move the ball as well.

717
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:51,440
Speaker 3: But if you look back last year, the Raiders were

718
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: actually pretty good early in games. I don't know if

719
00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 3: it was if it was that they were able to

720
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: scout plays more effectively, or it's just that their coaching

721
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 3: is so bad that they don't make adjustments. I mean,

722
00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 3: go look at what that. I think they scored one

723
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 3: touchdown in the third quarter all last year. Their defense

724
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 3: was the worst in the league in the third quarter,

725
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 3: and their offense was the worst in the league in

726
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:11,319
Speaker 3: the third quarter. That's not a great combination. So if

727
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 3: you want to get the I make this line three

728
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 3: point two, but mainly because I might be overweighting teams

729
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 3: that have so much turnover, but I'm just trying to

730
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 3: avoid them early on. I think so the Panthers, you know,

731
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 3: new coach, and there is some continuity which you mentioned,

732
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: which is a good point. But all this roster turnover,

733
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,439
Speaker 3: new scheme on defense, it's a team I wanted to avoid.

734
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:31,280
Speaker 3: So it's three point two. I'm not betting the Raiders.

735
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 3: But if you want to bet the Raiders, knowing their

736
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 3: seconds struggles last year, knowing that the Panthers they might

737
00:34:35,600 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 3: have more, might take a little a couple more drives

738
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 3: that get into it before the Raiders. And if the

739
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,800
Speaker 3: Raiders get up, there's nothing to say that the Panthers

740
00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:44,879
Speaker 3: can't throw and come back in this game. So maybe

741
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 3: you look at the Raiders under a field goal in

742
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 3: the first half if you like them. But I think

743
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,520
Speaker 3: I don't disagree with your logic, but I think the

744
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 3: play in this game might be the over.

745
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, I could see that, you know, I could see

746
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 4: it going either way. I mean, you know, we don't

747
00:34:57,080 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 4: know exactly how conservative or aggressive these coaches will be.

748
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 4: But I'm just looking at it from the perspective of

749
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 4: you know, the Panthers very well may have the better

750
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 4: quarterback in this game.

751
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 2: They have the better running back in this game.

752
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 4: Even though you know we're all talking about Jacobs and

753
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,120
Speaker 4: how well who'll be able to run. They have the

754
00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,640
Speaker 4: better running back, They had the better defense, last year,

755
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 4: even though both of the defenses were bad. They they

756
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,800
Speaker 4: even though we're excited about Henry Ruggs, the Panthers have

757
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,120
Speaker 4: the best wide receiver in this game, and Dj Moore,

758
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 4: like the Panthers pretty much have advantages all across the board.

759
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,240
Speaker 4: And then it's just you know, it's Matt Rule versus Gruden,

760
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 4: which you know, okay rules in his first start, but

761
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,400
Speaker 4: that's why we're getting three and a half. So I

762
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,359
Speaker 4: just don't think there's that big of a chasm. But

763
00:35:35,360 --> 00:35:38,319
Speaker 4: but I could see, I could see the total kind

764
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 4: of going either way, just depending on you know, rule

765
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 4: could come out really conservative.

766
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 2: That's that's what I That's what I would worry about

767
00:35:44,000 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 2: with the with the total.

768
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean there's two good offenses. I mean, the

769
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 3: Raiders have a really good offensive line. The Raiders don't

770
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 3: get pressure on the other side, so I think either

771
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:53,160
Speaker 3: quarterbacks can have time to do what they want. And

772
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 3: then there's a lot questions in both secondaries. Okay, for

773
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 3: the fourth selection in the Sunday six pack, I am

774
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 3: going with drum roll please the Los Angeles Rams, which

775
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm doing it. Plus at bet MGM

776
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:14,440
Speaker 3: right now, they're plus two and a half. Again, I

777
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:16,600
Speaker 3: would buy to a three under fifteen cents if you don't,

778
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 3: especially the Cowboys. It's on Sunday night. Look the guy.

779
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 3: I'm actually pretty high on the Cowboys, slightly higher than

780
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 3: the market from a wind total perspective. But this team

781
00:36:26,080 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: is going through a lot of changes on the defensive

782
00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 3: side of the ball. You know, a new head coach.

783
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 3: They do have the same offensive coordinator. And this is

784
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 3: an offensive ad CD Lamb. And you think, man, I mean,

785
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:37,759
Speaker 3: this is one of the best offense the NFL last year.

786
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 3: This offense is going to be really tough to stop.

787
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 3: But I mean, how much better can it get? And

788
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,319
Speaker 3: then you and then you look at the offensive line,

789
00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 3: which has been such a strength. You have to replace

790
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,600
Speaker 3: excellent center, and now you have to replace Lyle Collins

791
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 3: who was placed on ir right tackle. So losing him,

792
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 3: you know, with only a week or so to goo,

793
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,080
Speaker 3: with not many great options behind him, and you still

794
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 3: I don't like the option. It's so and you're going

795
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 3: against Aaron Donald. I think he can cause some disruption.

796
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 3: I just make this line too. I think the Cowboys

797
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 3: are a team that might struggle early on with these

798
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 3: offensive line ishes. They're still trying to figure out their defense.

799
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 3: I like some of their pieces up front, but it's very,

800
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 3: very very raw secondary. And I think that on the

801
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 3: other side of the ball, the advantage here goes to

802
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 3: the Rams with this, with the questions in the Cowboys secondary,

803
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna see McVeigh come out with a

804
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 3: completely different looking offense and it's gonna, you know, it's

805
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 3: gonna take advantage of the strength of what Jared Goff

806
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 3: does and it's gonna be you know, more I think

807
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 3: more underneath. It's gonna be more two tight end sets,

808
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 3: and it's gonna be something that the Rams really haven't

809
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 3: shown a lot of in the past. There's gonna be

810
00:37:49,080 --> 00:37:52,319
Speaker 3: a lot of new wrinkles. I think he's taken completely

811
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 3: new approach, realizing that, Okay, everything that I was doing,

812
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 3: I have to do differently. And I think that that

813
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:00,880
Speaker 3: newness factor is going to work in the Rams's favor

814
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 3: for this week one game. And look, it's gonna be quiet,

815
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 3: and we love that for Jared Goff, he's got you know,

816
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:09,879
Speaker 3: McVay is gonna be able to get in and tell

817
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 3: him exactly what to do. We could have done that

818
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 3: clip from goodwill hunting for McVeigh looking at GoF So, yeah,

819
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 3: I'm taking the plus three with the home dog. I

820
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 3: made this around two point two, and now you have

821
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 3: the Lyle Collins injury, which just doesn't help things for Dallas,

822
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 3: and I think there'll be a little bit of growing

823
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 3: pains early. I think ultimately Dallas will be okay if

824
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 3: they stay healthy. But I'm taking the three here with

825
00:38:32,520 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 3: the Rams.

826
00:38:33,480 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it.

827
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 4: I bet this at I think it was you two

828
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:39,399
Speaker 4: one and a half or two or something like that.

829
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:42,560
Speaker 4: Earlier on, I thought this game was a lot closer

830
00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 4: to a toss.

831
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 2: Up, and I agree.

832
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 4: I think what McVeigh is doing is he's realized that

833
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 4: the offensive line.

834
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:52,800
Speaker 2: May not be fixable.

835
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 4: But what he can do is he can create a

836
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:58,240
Speaker 4: quick passing game for golf. He's really good at scheving

837
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,439
Speaker 4: those up, and he has the players to do with

838
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 4: with Kupp and Woods. And you know, they brought in

839
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 4: Van Jefferson. It was a great, you know, short to

840
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 4: intermediate route runner, kind of pro ready guy. Even though

841
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 4: he was the second round, you know, still a rookie.

842
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 4: This year, they got Akers who specializes in running behind

843
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: poor offensive lines, and they still have Higbee and Gerald

844
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 4: Everett at the tight end, so yeah, they can go

845
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 4: with more you know, one to two when they need to,

846
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 4: whether it's you know, when they're leading or you know,

847
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 4: when there's a pass rush or whatever. So yeah, I

848
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 4: like the Rams. I think they're well equipped to play

849
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 4: the Cowboys well in this spot. And you know, Mike

850
00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:37,040
Speaker 4: McCarthy's coming in. I think the biggest change he can

851
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,879
Speaker 4: make is making the Cowboys more efficient in the red zone.

852
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 4: They did struggle in that area. If you look at

853
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:46,840
Speaker 4: you know, Aaron Rodgers and McCarthy, the Packers, about seventy

854
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:51,080
Speaker 4: four percent of their offensive touchdowns came via the pass.

855
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 4: They were a lot more aggressive throwing in the red zone,

856
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 4: whereas the Cowboys, they've they've gone to Zeke a lot

857
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 4: in the red zone and it hasn't actually benefited them.

858
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:00,719
Speaker 4: So that's going to be the key for them is

859
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 4: to kind of use those receivers that they have in

860
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 4: Cooper and Gallop and Wham to use those guys and

861
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 4: Dak in the red zone. So this could actually be

862
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 4: a game that the total goes over to if because

863
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 4: you have McVeigh on one side, who I think, like

864
00:40:14,760 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: you said, is going to come out strong with the

865
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 4: game plan, and I think on the other side of

866
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 4: cow we still have enough talent to score and their

867
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,440
Speaker 4: weakness is going to be on defense. So I like

868
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 4: the Rams also would lean to the over in this one.

869
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 7: Hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I want

870
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 7: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

871
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:35,879
Speaker 7: network locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

872
00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:37,799
Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

873
00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:39,240
Speaker 2: You are locked own of the Dallas matterage.

874
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 3: We came everybody for the Locked On Lakers podcast. Let's Go.

875
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 7: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

876
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,560
Speaker 7: know your team better than anyone and give you the

877
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 7: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

878
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:54,880
Speaker 7: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked on podcast.

879
00:40:57,440 --> 00:40:57,879
Speaker 3: All right.

880
00:40:58,000 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 4: For the fifth pick in the Sunday sixth I'm going

881
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 4: with the Chicago Bears plus three against the Detroit Lions.

882
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 2: And you like the Lions, I know stuck.

883
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,280
Speaker 4: I've actually come around on them a little bit because

884
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 4: I think I really like what Darryl Bevell did schematically

885
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 4: with Matthew Stafford last year. Stafford was at the top

886
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 4: of the league in terms of average target depth, where

887
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:25,360
Speaker 4: whereas he was he was near the bottom of the

888
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 4: league the year before, And I think that's the way

889
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 4: to play when you have Gallade and Marvin Jones and

890
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:33,239
Speaker 4: those guys Marvin Hall, you know, coming off the bench

891
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 4: as well. So I like what they're doing on offense.

892
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 4: But at the same time, I don't think this is

893
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 4: a three point advantage for the for the Lions. I

894
00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:46,240
Speaker 4: don't think that this team has quite put it together

895
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 4: on defense yet, and they've never really put it together.

896
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 2: In the Patricia era, even with Stafford.

897
00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:54,839
Speaker 4: He's nine fourteen and one straight up with Stafford nine

898
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 4: to twenty three and one overall straight up.

899
00:41:58,160 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 2: So you know, you're.

900
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,880
Speaker 4: Essentially picking who's gonna win this game. When it's a

901
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,360
Speaker 4: close spread like this, I still win the Chicago Bears.

902
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 4: I think, true bisky, you're gonna see something closer twenty eighteen.

903
00:42:08,719 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 4: He played last year with a shoulder injury that was

904
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:13,439
Speaker 4: bothering him.

905
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 2: He was a lot better than Nick Foles in camp

906
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:16,280
Speaker 2: this year.

907
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:19,359
Speaker 4: I just think that the Bears, you look at, you know,

908
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 4: as bad as they as we felt like they were,

909
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 4: as disappointing as we felt like they were last year,

910
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 4: they still.

911
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 2: Won eight and eight.

912
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 4: You know, bat Naggy's still twenty and twelve in his

913
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 4: two years. They still have a defense that I think

914
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:36,200
Speaker 4: is much better than Detroit. So you know, Matthew Stafford

915
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:38,400
Speaker 4: love with him, and Bevel have kind of got going,

916
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:40,960
Speaker 4: but this is a defense that can slow that down

917
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 4: a little bit. And I just think that the Bears

918
00:42:44,160 --> 00:42:46,759
Speaker 4: have the better overall football team. So taking the Bears

919
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 4: is a three point dog year.

920
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 3: From a value perspective. I mean, you're taking the most

921
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 3: important number in the NFL getting three, and I make

922
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 3: this lines minus one and a half ish, So that's

923
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 3: I would say that he's with the Bears. But I mean,

924
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 3: I'm not betting Mitch Portles in Week one.

925
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 1: You've just been bortled.

926
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:07,800
Speaker 3: I have a lot of questions about both rosses that

927
00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna have answered. I'm I can almost guarantee myself

928
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 3: I'm staying away from this game. It's also not a

929
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,400
Speaker 3: bad teaser option, which we'll get to teasers if you

930
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,319
Speaker 3: want to tease the Bears up from three. But I mean,

931
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:23,239
Speaker 3: the Lions offense was really good before Stafford went down,

932
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 3: and they have the weapons on the outside to attack

933
00:43:26,520 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 3: this Bears secondary and look, I think that Fuller is

934
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 3: slightly overrated. But he's a good corner. He's a good

935
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,439
Speaker 3: starting NFL corner. But who's who's across from him now?

936
00:43:36,560 --> 00:43:38,720
Speaker 3: I mean, as of right now, listed as the starter

937
00:43:38,760 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 3: is Jalen Johnson, a rookie corner. And the Lions don't

938
00:43:42,160 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 3: just have a number one corner, and I mean number

939
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 3: one receiver in Galladay, you have Jones. You have to

940
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:49,240
Speaker 3: cover two. And look, there was a report the Bears

941
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 3: reports out of campur h Lairs this week. It's like

942
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:52,879
Speaker 3: Mitch completed the pass, he looks great.

943
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:55,800
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, that's pretty much camp reports.

944
00:43:56,160 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 3: They said, Jayleen Johnson, he hasn't he had two offseasons shoulders,

945
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 3: so he's a rookie. He missed all of camp, didn't

946
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 3: play in the scrimmage, and then in a practice he

947
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,720
Speaker 3: picked off Nick Foles once and it was like a story.

948
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 3: So I mean, look, he just started practice. The learning

949
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 3: curve for rookies, especially him. He had surgery, didn't he

950
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 3: didn't practice, and he's just now he's the starter. So

951
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 3: the secondary is in really rough shape in my opinion.

952
00:44:17,920 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 3: So and look you lose Eddie Goldman up front. Now

953
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 3: the front seven stows a lot of talent, and they're

954
00:44:22,320 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 3: gonna get a ton of pressure. And it's scary to

955
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 3: think about Quinn and Mack going against the right side

956
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 3: of the Lions offensive line. They signed y Tie from

957
00:44:30,800 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 3: the Eagles, their swing tackle for a ton of money.

958
00:44:32,480 --> 00:44:34,400
Speaker 3: He's gonna start a right tackle, and then you have

959
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,839
Speaker 3: a right guard, and Jonah Jackson, a rookie third one pick,

960
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 3: He's gonna start a right guard. So I mean the

961
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 3: right side of the offensive line. I don't know how

962
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:41,879
Speaker 3: they're gonna help them. Definitely gonna get the ball quick,

963
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 3: which you can do, but does that take away their

964
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,839
Speaker 3: downfield passing? That's something I'm watching. On the defense side

965
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 3: of the ball, that's where I think we know the

966
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 3: Lions will be able to score. The right side of

967
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 3: the offensive line is a little questionable, but we know

968
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:54,319
Speaker 3: they're gonna be ab to score. The defense last year

969
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:55,879
Speaker 3: was awful. I mean, he gave the most passing yards

970
00:44:55,880 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 3: in the NFL and all they did was played basic

971
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 3: cover one all year. Sligh was obviously awful, which didn't help.

972
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 3: He was kept falling around the opposing number one receiver.

973
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 3: So now you have a Kudah Truefont and Justin Coleman,

974
00:45:07,080 --> 00:45:09,239
Speaker 3: who's a really good slock corner. What's the learning curve

975
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,840
Speaker 3: for Akuda? He's obviously a lot more talented than Jalen Johnson.

976
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 3: And then what is Truefont going to give them? They

977
00:45:14,520 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 3: also added some really important pieces from the Patriots. I

978
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 3: mean they're basically just trying to become the Patriots defense.

979
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 3: You know, you added she Shelton and Harmon for example,

980
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,319
Speaker 3: to really underrated guys in that defense last year. So,

981
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:27,520
Speaker 3: but I think the most important thing to watch for

982
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:29,959
Speaker 3: is it's not Patricia call and plays anymore. It's Corey

983
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:32,880
Speaker 3: Unlin and they need to just get different. They're just

984
00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 3: so predictable. Yeah they cover one and it's like okay,

985
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 3: and teams can figure that out. You got to throw

986
00:45:38,200 --> 00:45:39,600
Speaker 3: in different looks. So I want to see what they

987
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 3: do on the defensive side of the ball. From a

988
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 3: value perspective, I agree with you, but I'm staying away.

989
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 3: I don't know if the Bear scheme to run the ball,

990
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: which you should be able to do against the Lions

991
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 3: most teams. I'm not running the beat, Mitch Heear. But

992
00:45:50,640 --> 00:45:55,839
Speaker 3: from a value perspective, I can't argue against you, all right,

993
00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 3: For the sixth pick of the Sunday six Pack the

994
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:02,920
Speaker 3: last of Week one. I'm going with a team that

995
00:46:03,000 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 3: I swore off last year that I would never bet,

996
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 3: Arizona Cardinals and mister Cliff Kingsbury. At that MGM, they

997
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 3: are plus seven. I believe there's still seven there. You know.

998
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 3: I do like some of the things that Arizona has done,

999
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 3: and I think Kyler Murray is going to take another

1000
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,840
Speaker 3: leap forward this year. And the offensive line from a

1001
00:46:20,840 --> 00:46:23,160
Speaker 3: pass blocking perspective last year, and there's a lot of

1002
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 3: continuity there this year. Is it was actually pretty good

1003
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 3: last year if you look at the advanced stats, they

1004
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 3: actually were decent at pass block. Now, I gave a

1005
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 3: ton of sacks. A lot of that was on Murray.

1006
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 3: He was trying to make plays under pressure. He would

1007
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 3: take a lot of sacks he shouldn't have. And look,

1008
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 3: he just came in the NFL and he was used

1009
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 3: to playing in Oklahoma with like the best offensive lines

1010
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 3: in the country in the Big twelve against no defenses.

1011
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 3: He's not used to like he used to just sit

1012
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 3: in the pocket and being like I could do whatever

1013
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 3: I want. He's gonna just being able to read defenses

1014
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:53,319
Speaker 3: and understand when to get rid of the ball. That's

1015
00:46:53,360 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 3: going to improve. Also the red zone. They were so

1016
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 3: bad in the red zone last year. These little things

1017
00:46:57,760 --> 00:46:59,640
Speaker 3: I think are going to improve on the offense. And hey,

1018
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,240
Speaker 3: what's a big thing is they added added DeAndre Hopkins.

1019
00:47:02,400 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 3: Doesn't hurt in an offense that's gonna have a ton

1020
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 3: of four wide receiver sets. It's gonna be very, very

1021
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 3: difficult to cover. I'm interested. I think that they're gonna

1022
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:10,919
Speaker 3: put him on the left side of the field a ton.

1023
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 3: You know, they'll put them all over, but in the slot.

1024
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:14,919
Speaker 3: Just keep him away from Sherman and you're gonna see

1025
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:17,239
Speaker 3: some big plays from Hopkins. I think the offense line

1026
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 3: is better than people give it credit for. And I

1027
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:21,200
Speaker 3: think that Murray is gonna have more awareness and just

1028
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:24,239
Speaker 3: natural progression in his second year. The defense, they improve

1029
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:27,320
Speaker 3: their linebacking corps. You know they added Isaiah Simmons. This

1030
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 3: is a team that can't cover tight end, so you're

1031
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 3: petro five. When they played the forty nine ers and

1032
00:47:31,560 --> 00:47:33,799
Speaker 3: George Kittle, it looks like it is gonna play. I

1033
00:47:33,840 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 3: want to see how much they put Simmons on Kittle.

1034
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 3: But the secondary was a disaster. Last year, you had

1035
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 3: Peterson's suspension, you had Alfred hurt, and Alfred's hurt again,

1036
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 3: Robert out for their starting corner, which very unfortunate for him.

1037
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 3: But Byron Murphy got thrown into the Wolves. He was

1038
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,839
Speaker 3: starting last year, so you would think that experience pays off.

1039
00:47:49,840 --> 00:47:52,239
Speaker 3: This year, Peterson is back to start the year, so

1040
00:47:52,280 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 3: you think their secondary should be a little better. But

1041
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:57,680
Speaker 3: this is more of a fate at the forty nine

1042
00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:00,719
Speaker 3: ers earlier in the year. Look, I mean, just go

1043
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 3: look at the fort nins injury report. I don't know

1044
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 3: who's what wide receivers are playing. You're back to like

1045
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:07,800
Speaker 3: the Trent Taylor and Dante Pettis. Everybody's heard it. Deebos

1046
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,200
Speaker 3: Samiel might play, but I mean he's been really hurt.

1047
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 3: At least he's getting positive reports now they're they're rookie

1048
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 3: I who has heard? I mean, and then on the

1049
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,720
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball, I mean, it's crazy into

1050
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,600
Speaker 3: your offensive line. There's just so many injuries for this

1051
00:48:21,640 --> 00:48:24,360
Speaker 3: forty nine ers team. Arizona was actually decent against the

1052
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:27,440
Speaker 3: run last year, so I think the forty nine ers

1053
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:30,760
Speaker 3: obviously they're gonna be able to run the ball. At times,

1054
00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 3: but I think this line is too high. And last year.

1055
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 3: The last thing I'll say about this matchup is last year,

1056
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,799
Speaker 3: the Cardinals played two games against the forty nine ers

1057
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 3: and their defense was elite last year. And in both

1058
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 3: those games it was twenty eight to twenty five to

1059
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,120
Speaker 3: forty nine Ers one and thirty six to twenty six.

1060
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 3: But in that thirty six to twenty six loss, the

1061
00:48:49,600 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 3: Cards are up three with thirty seconds left. Yep, So

1062
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 3: I mean thought some preyer for everybody who had the plus

1063
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,719
Speaker 3: nine and a half in that game. And then the

1064
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 3: fortynineers scored a touchdown like a forty yard pass with

1065
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:01,680
Speaker 3: thirty seconds ago, and then there was a fumble and

1066
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:03,080
Speaker 3: got kicked all the way to the end zone with

1067
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 3: as time expired. But you know, if you look at

1068
00:49:06,880 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 3: last year what the forty nine ers defense struggled with

1069
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 3: its mobile quarterbacks. Now, this argument is kind of circular

1070
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,280
Speaker 3: because a lot of the best quarterbacks in the NFL

1071
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 3: are mobile. But they played six games against mobile quarterbacks

1072
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 3: Lamar Marray, Mahomes, Wilson. You know they were a five

1073
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,239
Speaker 3: hundred team. They have twenty six points per game. The

1074
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:27,760
Speaker 3: thirteen games against other teams I mean it was dominant.

1075
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:29,840
Speaker 3: They were twelve and one. They allowed ten fewer points

1076
00:49:29,880 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 3: per game against those teams. And why is that. Well,

1077
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 3: their defensive line is elite. They get pressure without blitzing

1078
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 3: as well as any team in the NFL. So they

1079
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 3: don't need to blitz. They're gonna get pressure. They're gonna

1080
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,359
Speaker 3: get pressure right away. You need a quarterback that's gonna

1081
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:45,280
Speaker 3: be able to move and then it can actually run

1082
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 3: take off, and the Cardinals have that. Their offense had

1083
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:51,160
Speaker 3: success last year against the Ford nin Ers. I think

1084
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:54,240
Speaker 3: it'll be a confident group. I think Kingsbury and that offense,

1085
00:49:54,239 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 3: they'll have a bunch of new different looks, and they

1086
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,840
Speaker 3: talked about how they're looking at the positive and no

1087
00:49:58,920 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 3: preseason it's like, hey, we come in with these these

1088
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:02,759
Speaker 3: new looks. I know the forty nine ers will have

1089
00:50:02,800 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 3: that in the running game, but I think you're going

1090
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:07,120
Speaker 3: to see some explosive passes that the fort nineers didn't

1091
00:50:07,120 --> 00:50:09,520
Speaker 3: get up too many of last year. So just give

1092
00:50:09,560 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 3: me the seven here against the forty nine ers team

1093
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 3: that I'm fading early with just all of these injuries

1094
00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:16,280
Speaker 3: across the board.

1095
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, once we see that injury report later in the week.

1096
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 4: I could definitely see kind of adjusting that to where

1097
00:50:22,719 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 4: there is some value for me on the on the cards.

1098
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:28,040
Speaker 4: I think one another thing to point out about Arizona

1099
00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 4: and why there, you know, could potentially be equipped to

1100
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 4: stop saying frame is Arizona was. You know, they had

1101
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 4: that really bad pass defense last year, number twenty eight

1102
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,320
Speaker 4: in Dvoa, but they were actually number six in run defense.

1103
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:42,600
Speaker 4: And you know you have to stop the run when

1104
00:50:42,640 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 4: you play San Francisco. So if you can do that,

1105
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 4: you can you can kind of equalize things just a

1106
00:50:47,080 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 4: little bit.

1107
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,640
Speaker 2: So uh, yeah, I can't argue with you with that

1108
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:51,879
Speaker 2: pick at all.

1109
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:54,799
Speaker 3: Yeah. Fred Warner also keeping out on him. He might

1110
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:56,360
Speaker 3: not play as well, and he's really important for the

1111
00:50:56,400 --> 00:50:58,439
Speaker 3: forty nine ers, So just e on the injury report

1112
00:50:58,440 --> 00:50:59,640
Speaker 3: for the forty niners later in the week.

1113
00:51:00,400 --> 00:51:02,680
Speaker 2: All right, that's gonna do it. For our Sunday six pack.

1114
00:51:02,760 --> 00:51:06,600
Speaker 4: To recap, I have the Buffalo Bills minus six and

1115
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 4: a half against the Jets, the Panthers plus three and

1116
00:51:09,560 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 4: a half against the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Bears

1117
00:51:12,920 --> 00:51:16,960
Speaker 4: plus three against the Detroit Yon Stuck has the Cardinals

1118
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:18,640
Speaker 4: plus seven against the Niners.

1119
00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 2: The Rams plus.

1120
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 4: Two and a half against the Cowboys and the Dolphins

1121
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 4: plus six and a half against the New England Patriots.

1122
00:51:27,120 --> 00:51:30,000
Speaker 4: All right, that's our Sunday six pack for Week one.

1123
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 4: Next up, we have our favorite over underplays. But first

1124
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 4: a quick word from our friends at bet MGM.

1125
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 8: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

1126
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 8: bet MGM Sports are offering Action Network podcast listeners a

1127
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 8: great signu offer. Just make your first deposit using the

1128
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 8: bonus Code Action Pod and receive one hundred percent deposit

1129
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 8: match up to five hundred dollars. They got parlay bonus

1130
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 8: pouns like betting markets, daily odds, boosts, all sorts of

1131
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 8: great up So download the betmgm app today or visit

1132
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 8: betmgm dot com to sign up and use the Code

1133
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:09,680
Speaker 8: Action Pod to double your bank roll with one hundred

1134
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 8: percent deposit match up to five hundred dollars. As a reminder,

1135
00:52:13,239 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 8: you must be twenty one or older and physically located

1136
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:18,600
Speaker 8: in the Great States of Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Nevada,

1137
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:22,239
Speaker 8: or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one

1138
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 8: eight hundred five to two two forty seven hundred in

1139
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 8: Colorado and Nevada one eight hundred gambler in New Jersey

1140
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 8: and West Virginia or one eight hundred and nine with

1141
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:31,839
Speaker 8: it in Indiana. Promo offer not available in Nevada. And

1142
00:52:31,920 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 8: now back to the show.

1143
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our favorite total of the week. Stuck.

1144
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 4: I went first to the six packs, so you kick

1145
00:52:42,280 --> 00:52:43,080
Speaker 4: us off for the total.

1146
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mentioned this game already, and by the way,

1147
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:47,919
Speaker 3: if we didn't mention, or just to reiterate, two points

1148
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,319
Speaker 3: for our best side, one point for each of the two,

1149
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:53,879
Speaker 3: one point for the total. That's five points each week

1150
00:52:53,920 --> 00:52:55,600
Speaker 3: we can get and then you get a bonus point

1151
00:52:55,640 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 3: if you sweep the board. So I guess I'd add

1152
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 3: a maximum of six points a week when we're keeping track,

1153
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 3: and we'll keep you updated on the scores all year.

1154
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 3: For my total, I'm going Jets Bills under at bet MGM.

1155
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:09,840
Speaker 3: Currently it's thirty nine and a half. See if you

1156
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 3: can wait around and get a forty at some point

1157
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 3: for a potential twenty three to seventeen push or something

1158
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 3: along those lines. The Jets offense is awful. The Bill's

1159
00:53:19,200 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 3: defense is really good. It can take away anything the Jets.

1160
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 3: I think one of the id just tell them how

1161
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 3: the Jets are going to move the ball. You know

1162
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 3: the Bill's offense, it's not they're not world beaters. You

1163
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 3: want to throw in the conditions for Sunday in Buffalo

1164
00:53:30,800 --> 00:53:33,840
Speaker 3: potentially eighteen twenty twenty two mile and I wins thunderstorms

1165
00:53:34,120 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 3: wins in Buffalo or nasty, especially to a kicking game.

1166
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,399
Speaker 3: Not only do the quarterbacks throwing it with the kicking game,

1167
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:42,720
Speaker 3: and both teams have questions a kicker. There was kicker

1168
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:45,280
Speaker 3: competitions in each camp, So you're gonna have Tyler Bass

1169
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 3: versus Sam Ficken in this game. So don't be surprised

1170
00:53:47,640 --> 00:53:49,520
Speaker 3: if you get a couple of drives down the field

1171
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,520
Speaker 3: and then a missed field goal with the wind and

1172
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 3: questionable kickers, and then that's a dream for an under.

1173
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:56,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, new Jets off at the line is really

1174
00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:58,960
Speaker 3: going to struggle here, and look no further than last year.

1175
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 3: The games were seventeen to sixteen and thirteen to six.

1176
00:54:03,320 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 3: The second one was with I mean the Bills played nobody,

1177
00:54:06,200 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 3: but they still held the Jets at thirteen points. I

1178
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:10,760
Speaker 3: mean they literally they were played like wide receivers at corner.

1179
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me the under in Jets Bills under forty.

1180
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 3: I think this is like twenty seventeen max.

1181
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:21,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, and it has been profitable to bet the under.

1182
00:54:21,920 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 4: And Josh Allen starts nineteen and eight seventy percent hit

1183
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:29,520
Speaker 4: rate according to bet Labs. So that's the one that

1184
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 4: I'm usually on and probably the one I would have

1185
00:54:32,920 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 4: taken if you hadn't taken it. But I am going

1186
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:39,719
Speaker 4: to go with the Packers Vikings under forty five and

1187
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 4: a half. This kind of is similar to you mentioned

1188
00:54:42,640 --> 00:54:44,799
Speaker 4: San Francisco and how they get that four man rush,

1189
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 4: and you know they can drop guys into coverage, and

1190
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 4: these are the matchups where Aaron Rodgers struggles, and I

1191
00:54:51,080 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 4: think Minnesota can still get a pretty good pass rush.

1192
00:54:54,080 --> 00:54:56,719
Speaker 4: They have some issues at corner, but Green Bay only

1193
00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:00,279
Speaker 4: has one receiver, and you look back at Aaron Rodgers,

1194
00:55:00,360 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 4: you know, against Mike Zimmer defenses, and it hasn't been

1195
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:06,880
Speaker 4: pretty over the last four matchups. In particular, he's averaging

1196
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,759
Speaker 4: just one touchdown pass, just two hundred and twenty six

1197
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,320
Speaker 4: yards passing and just six point.

1198
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:13,840
Speaker 2: Three yards per attempt.

1199
00:55:14,280 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 4: Everything we've seen out of this Green Bay team this

1200
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 4: entire offseason, they've been geared to running the ball more.

1201
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 4: They drafted an h back in the third round. They

1202
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:27,799
Speaker 4: drafted a big, you know, two down grinding, you know, explosive,

1203
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:30,080
Speaker 4: but still two down type of guy, and AJ Dillon

1204
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,279
Speaker 4: in the second the you know this is it. They

1205
00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:35,640
Speaker 4: didn't really address the receiver position at all. This is

1206
00:55:35,640 --> 00:55:38,640
Speaker 4: a team that I think is going to to want

1207
00:55:38,680 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 4: to continue to run the ball and ride Aaron Jones.

1208
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 2: They'll go to Devonte when they have to.

1209
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:46,239
Speaker 4: But then on the other side with Minnesota, you have

1210
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:49,319
Speaker 4: a team that, yes they lost stefanskis in Cleveland now,

1211
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,319
Speaker 4: but you still have Kubiak and you still have Mike

1212
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:53,920
Speaker 4: Zimmer And we know the type of identity that this

1213
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,160
Speaker 4: team wants to have. It's going to be a run

1214
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:58,880
Speaker 4: first team. It's going to be a conservative team.

1215
00:55:59,160 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 3: Uh.

1216
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:01,600
Speaker 2: This team was essentially.

1217
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 4: The most run heavy team in the league this out

1218
00:56:04,480 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 4: of Baltimore last year and Stefan Diggs big loss over

1219
00:56:10,640 --> 00:56:16,240
Speaker 4: eleven hundred yards, six touchdowns, seven over seventeen yards per catch.

1220
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:19,400
Speaker 4: You know that's not going to just be replaced by b. C.

1221
00:56:19,600 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 4: Johnson entering year two and a rookie and Justin Jefferson,

1222
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 4: So you know their offense is going to take a

1223
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:28,680
Speaker 4: little bit of a hit with with Diggs being gone,

1224
00:56:29,000 --> 00:56:32,160
Speaker 4: and these these are just two teams that I think

1225
00:56:32,200 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 4: divisional matchup, it's going to be a slug fest, and

1226
00:56:35,920 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 4: I think both of these coaches would honestly.

1227
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 2: Prefer it that way.

1228
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:42,360
Speaker 4: So you know they're you look back at, you know,

1229
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 4: kind of some trends and they backed us up at home.

1230
00:56:46,560 --> 00:56:51,240
Speaker 4: Mike Zimmer, the unders are twenty nine and nineteen all time.

1231
00:56:51,600 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 2: That is a sixty percent hit rate.

1232
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 4: And he look at Aaron Rodgers in the Division the

1233
00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 4: under his thirty seven and twenty eight fifty seven percent,

1234
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:03,520
Speaker 4: including a perfect six and zero last season. So you know,

1235
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:05,520
Speaker 4: this is a spot that just kind of screams under.

1236
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:08,920
Speaker 4: And I love getting the extra half point at forty

1237
00:57:08,960 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 4: five and a half, So under forty five and a half,

1238
00:57:11,719 --> 00:57:14,200
Speaker 4: divisional matchup forty five and a half.

1239
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:17,080
Speaker 3: Yep, I completely agree that I played this one as well.

1240
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 3: This was I was contemplating between the Jets under and

1241
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:21,200
Speaker 3: this under. You know, I just to add on to

1242
00:57:21,320 --> 00:57:24,439
Speaker 3: your Zimmer stats, He's fifteen and three to the under

1243
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 3: at home in division games. So you know the Vikings

1244
00:57:27,560 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 3: offensive line four or five starters back second year, that

1245
00:57:30,440 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 3: Kubiak zone scheme, I think they're gona able to run

1246
00:57:32,680 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 3: the ball a lot. I mean, the Packers didn't address

1247
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 3: the run defense, and they drafted Kamal Martin and he

1248
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 3: was going to start a rookie and he's hurt. Now

1249
00:57:38,840 --> 00:57:40,600
Speaker 3: you get Ordon Berks in there. I know that the

1250
00:57:40,680 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 3: Vikings want some success running the ball, but these two offenses,

1251
00:57:43,480 --> 00:57:45,000
Speaker 3: they're both gonna run the ball. They're both going to

1252
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,360
Speaker 3: use multiple tight ends and a lot of tight end stuff,

1253
00:57:47,400 --> 00:57:50,240
Speaker 3: and both teams can cover tight ends. Both teams are

1254
00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 3: familiar with each other. So yeah, I think this is

1255
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 3: a grind fest. And then everything the Packers have done

1256
00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 3: and how they drafted and they didn't address receiver. All

1257
00:57:57,880 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 3: the quotes out of camp, they're saying things like we

1258
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:05,880
Speaker 3: need to set up our passing with more logical plays

1259
00:58:06,280 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 3: early on in downs. Just me reading into it means

1260
00:58:10,360 --> 00:58:13,080
Speaker 3: that they're gonna go the inefficient route of running the

1261
00:58:13,120 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 3: ball on like first down and then second out and

1262
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:17,800
Speaker 3: then go play action when there's a lot of studies

1263
00:58:17,800 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 3: out there that show that it doesn't even matter, like

1264
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:21,720
Speaker 3: if you run at the due play action. So I

1265
00:58:21,720 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 3: think that that's and this would make sense that the

1266
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 3: Packers drafted like this would actually make their draft. Makes

1267
00:58:26,040 --> 00:58:27,680
Speaker 3: sense that they're gonna become like a high school power

1268
00:58:27,680 --> 00:58:30,160
Speaker 3: ie team. So I think that the Packers are going

1269
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:33,320
Speaker 3: to be really conservative, more conservative than they were. They

1270
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 3: really only have one receiver, you got to stop. It's

1271
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 3: a really good one. And then you know the Vikings

1272
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 3: right now only really have one receiver you gotta stop.

1273
00:58:39,560 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 3: Makes it a lot easier to defend an offense. A

1274
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 3: lot of tight ends, a lot of running in this game,

1275
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 3: a lot of clock moving. So I completely agree with you.

1276
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:50,440
Speaker 2: All right, now it's time for our weekly teaser segment.

1277
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:55,480
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1278
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 4: For anyone who may be unfamiliar with teasers, Essentially, you

1279
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:03,040
Speaker 4: get six extra points on the spread. You usually choose,

1280
00:59:03,080 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 4: you know, two or more different teams and you can

1281
00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:10,720
Speaker 4: combine them into a bet, but essentially you're getting six

1282
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 4: extra points. So, for example, if you have the if

1283
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 4: you're teasing the Ravens, you know they're eight and a

1284
00:59:16,200 --> 00:59:18,680
Speaker 4: half point favorites, you would be they would only have

1285
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:20,439
Speaker 4: to win by two and a half and then you'd

1286
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 4: have another bet, and you know, so on and so forth,

1287
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:26,040
Speaker 4: and the same applies. So we kind of do our

1288
00:59:26,080 --> 00:59:31,440
Speaker 4: favorite two team teaser each week, and I'll start us off.

1289
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 4: I'm going Baltimore teasing them down from eight and a

1290
00:59:35,120 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 4: half point favorites to two and a half against Cleveland,

1291
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 4: and then the Buffalo Bills teasing them down from six

1292
00:59:41,160 --> 00:59:44,320
Speaker 4: and a half to half a point, which means essentially,

1293
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:47,160
Speaker 4: you know, for them to win the game against the

1294
00:59:47,160 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 4: New York Jets.

1295
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 2: Who you going with stuff?

1296
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:50,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with you in the Ravens now. If

1297
00:59:50,920 --> 00:59:53,840
Speaker 3: you aren't familiar with teasers, some people want to say

1298
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 3: they're sucker bats, They're not. In the NFL, there's actually

1299
00:59:56,760 --> 00:59:58,640
Speaker 3: math behind when you have the edge over the book

1300
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:01,160
Speaker 3: in certain situations, better what the teams are. I have

1301
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:02,919
Speaker 3: a huge teaser guy that goes out every week. It'll

1302
01:00:02,920 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 3: explain all the mats to make sure you check that

1303
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 3: out on the Action app and Action network dot com. Basically,

1304
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,200
Speaker 3: if you can tease, you know down from around seven

1305
01:00:09,320 --> 01:00:12,080
Speaker 3: through seven and three are up from three and seven.

1306
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,240
Speaker 3: It's the ideal situation. You're crossing two key numbers. Your

1307
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:17,520
Speaker 3: key numbers are three, four, six, seven to ten to

1308
01:00:17,520 --> 01:00:21,520
Speaker 3: fourteen a little less so so I never teas through zero. Please.

1309
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:24,360
Speaker 3: My teas this week is the Ravens down to two

1310
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:26,000
Speaker 3: and a half. I mean, my quick thoughts on this game.

1311
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,120
Speaker 3: Ravens are my team. A lot of continuity. They bring

1312
01:00:29,160 --> 01:00:31,600
Speaker 3: a lot back love the staff, which I think really

1313
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:33,960
Speaker 3: plays earlier on the season. As I mentioned before, Browns,

1314
01:00:34,000 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 3: I think I love their coaching changes. But a lot

1315
01:00:36,160 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 3: of coaching changes here, a lot high roster turnover, tons

1316
01:00:39,240 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 3: of defensive injuries. There's reports that Will's is struggling at

1317
01:00:42,560 --> 01:00:45,480
Speaker 3: left tackle. There's center Trotter just came back. I Tryer

1318
01:00:45,840 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 3: just came back, so I don't even know if he's

1319
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 3: going to go or effective will be. And then you

1320
01:00:49,520 --> 01:00:53,320
Speaker 3: have all these injuries in the secondary and at linebacker

1321
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:55,200
Speaker 3: they are is I mean, Mack Wilson's probably not going

1322
01:00:55,240 --> 01:00:57,560
Speaker 3: to play. They are so weak. Now I get why

1323
01:00:57,600 --> 01:00:59,960
Speaker 3: you devalue the linebacker position in today's NFL makes sense.

1324
01:01:00,040 --> 01:01:01,920
Speaker 3: You played a lot more five to sixty backs. The

1325
01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:04,760
Speaker 3: team you don't want to have no linebackers and against

1326
01:01:05,080 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 3: is the Ravens, especially when you're going to a new

1327
01:01:07,680 --> 01:01:10,120
Speaker 3: defense and you know you have Delpit got her, Greedy

1328
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 3: Williams isn't gonna go, Mac Wilson is her. There's just

1329
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 3: injuries all over this defense. Offensive line trying to learn

1330
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:17,280
Speaker 3: a new scheme. I think it's will pay off eventually

1331
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:18,919
Speaker 3: for the Browns, but I think the Ravens win this game,

1332
01:01:19,160 --> 01:01:22,920
Speaker 3: and then I'm gonna tease the Falcons up from two

1333
01:01:23,000 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 3: two and a half up to eight eight and a half.

1334
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:28,520
Speaker 3: I make this line around a half a point. I

1335
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:31,040
Speaker 3: make the Seahawks about half a point favorite. So if

1336
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 3: I can get the Falcons over eight, now I'm gonna

1337
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:35,800
Speaker 3: take it. I love what the Seahawks did with Jamal

1338
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 3: Adams and then their secondar it's gonna improved. I think

1339
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:40,480
Speaker 3: it's gonna take some time and just follow the script.

1340
01:01:40,680 --> 01:01:42,360
Speaker 3: I mean, this is just the math play for good.

1341
01:01:42,400 --> 01:01:44,120
Speaker 3: Follow the script. The Seahawks will run the ball in

1342
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:46,360
Speaker 3: the first half. They're gonna be down and they're gonna

1343
01:01:46,360 --> 01:01:48,400
Speaker 3: come back, and Russell Wilson will lead them to a

1344
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,080
Speaker 3: one possession victory. One possession victory means they win by

1345
01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:53,880
Speaker 3: less than eight. So I will take the Falcons, and

1346
01:01:54,280 --> 01:01:57,320
Speaker 3: if by some miracle they're up like fourteen to three

1347
01:01:57,360 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 3: to go, you have a really good offense for a backdoor,

1348
01:02:00,240 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 3: which is another thing to just consider. I'm Neal Ryan

1349
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:05,320
Speaker 3: throwing the Jones and against the softer defense with the

1350
01:02:05,400 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 3: lead you know, a quarterback that it's not like you

1351
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 3: have Darnald or Mitch Trubisky. They need to go down

1352
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:12,800
Speaker 3: and get a touchdown. So Ravens Falcons.

1353
01:02:13,120 --> 01:02:16,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, like you know, I took the Seahawks out of pick,

1354
01:02:16,880 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 4: but yeah, you start getting nervous when they start having

1355
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:21,560
Speaker 4: to win by you know, a possession or more.

1356
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:24,000
Speaker 2: So I'm totally with it. And then with the going

1357
01:02:24,040 --> 01:02:27,360
Speaker 2: back to the Ravens, I actually like them to to

1358
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:30,680
Speaker 2: win big in this game. The the the Browns.

1359
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 4: Just all the reports out of camp have been the

1360
01:02:31,800 --> 01:02:33,440
Speaker 4: offense has been looking just as shaky as it was

1361
01:02:33,440 --> 01:02:36,240
Speaker 4: on her kitchens. I mean, Baker Mayfield may just be

1362
01:02:36,280 --> 01:02:37,200
Speaker 4: a bigger problem.

1363
01:02:37,520 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 3: You know.

1364
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 4: Then we think and you know, the reports are he's

1365
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 4: not really looking sharp in camp and yeah you got

1366
01:02:43,280 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 4: the injuries.

1367
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:44,040
Speaker 2: Now.

1368
01:02:44,080 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 4: The one thing, uh you know, Hardballs teams is as

1369
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 4: good as they've been. Uh, they haven't always you know,

1370
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:52,560
Speaker 4: blown the doors off in the division. Uh you know

1371
01:02:52,560 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 4: when he's a division fave. Uh, just ten and twenty

1372
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:57,960
Speaker 4: and one against the spread. So this could you know,

1373
01:02:58,040 --> 01:03:00,440
Speaker 4: That's why I'm taking him with the TZ though I

1374
01:03:00,480 --> 01:03:03,360
Speaker 4: did take them I think at minus eight, so maybe

1375
01:03:03,360 --> 01:03:06,560
Speaker 4: that that's gonna come back and bite me. But you know,

1376
01:03:06,920 --> 01:03:09,800
Speaker 4: I think that the Ravens will win handily in this game,

1377
01:03:10,560 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 4: and just based on kind of what's going on with Cleveland,

1378
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:14,640
Speaker 4: I don't think they'll.

1379
01:03:14,440 --> 01:03:16,880
Speaker 2: Be quite ready to start this season.

1380
01:03:17,320 --> 01:03:17,760
Speaker 3: All right.

1381
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:20,480
Speaker 2: Now it's time for our underdog money line.

1382
01:03:20,240 --> 01:03:28,560
Speaker 5: Parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1383
01:03:28,680 --> 01:03:30,760
Speaker 5: the money line parlay.

1384
01:03:31,200 --> 01:03:31,560
Speaker 2: All right.

1385
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:34,440
Speaker 4: For anyone unfamiliar with this segment, what we do is

1386
01:03:34,440 --> 01:03:37,920
Speaker 4: we each pick our favorite money line underdog, then we

1387
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:42,000
Speaker 4: combine them into a parlay and we see if it hits.

1388
01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:44,000
Speaker 4: And you know, for you guys out there, I know

1389
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:46,400
Speaker 4: we hit a couple of big ones last year, so stuck.

1390
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 2: Once you start us off, who are you going with?

1391
01:03:48,360 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 3: It's ugly, but it's it's a dog at home Division

1392
01:03:51,280 --> 01:03:54,400
Speaker 3: dog and Washington football team, the Redskins are plus five

1393
01:03:54,440 --> 01:03:56,080
Speaker 3: and a half over unders forty two and a half.

1394
01:03:56,400 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 3: Forty three is a key number now on the post

1395
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:00,720
Speaker 3: extra point move back. So see if you can get

1396
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:03,120
Speaker 3: a forty three. I like the under there and I

1397
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 3: like the Redskins. See if you can get a six.

1398
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 3: I think that this is just going to be an

1399
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:12,280
Speaker 3: ugly week one division game controlled by both defensive lines.

1400
01:04:12,600 --> 01:04:15,160
Speaker 3: The strength of the Redskins is a defensive line. I

1401
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:17,960
Speaker 3: mean Ryan Karenkon's not even a starter. They added Chase Young.

1402
01:04:18,000 --> 01:04:19,560
Speaker 3: I mean this team, the defense line is so deep,

1403
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:21,360
Speaker 3: and this is the first time you have questions with

1404
01:04:21,400 --> 01:04:24,560
Speaker 3: the Eagles offensive line. You lose two projected starters and

1405
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:27,919
Speaker 3: Dillard and Brooks. You're playing musical chairs all through camp.

1406
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:30,000
Speaker 3: Jason Peters is he healthy? What's he have left to

1407
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:31,720
Speaker 3: left tackle? I don't think that it's gonna be able

1408
01:04:31,720 --> 01:04:33,480
Speaker 3: to play the whole game. But he tends to get

1409
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:36,320
Speaker 3: nicked up. If he gets nicked up, I mean, who's

1410
01:04:36,360 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 3: coming in a tackle. It is a bad situation. I

1411
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 3: think the Redskins defensive line is going to make a

1412
01:04:41,800 --> 01:04:44,440
Speaker 3: number of plays here and then on the outside. I

1413
01:04:44,440 --> 01:04:47,360
Speaker 3: don't know if the Eagles can take advantage. Maybe Deshaun

1414
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 3: Jackson has a huge day, which is he's done it

1415
01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:52,840
Speaker 3: before against the Redskins the last time he played. But

1416
01:04:53,080 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 3: you know, Rager doesn't look like he's going to play.

1417
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 3: Jeffery is hurt, and it's like you're back to last

1418
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:02,600
Speaker 3: year's Pro You still have your tight ends and on

1419
01:05:02,640 --> 01:05:04,280
Speaker 3: the other side of the on the other side of

1420
01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 3: the ball. I look, I'm putting myself out there because

1421
01:05:07,400 --> 01:05:09,960
Speaker 3: I don't believe in Darius Slay and what the Eagles

1422
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 3: did in the offseason. Third linebackers are terrible, There's questions

1423
01:05:13,400 --> 01:05:15,840
Speaker 3: at safety. Their defensive line is great. If you believe

1424
01:05:15,880 --> 01:05:17,840
Speaker 3: in Slay, who's gonna shut down a number one receiver

1425
01:05:18,000 --> 01:05:21,360
Speaker 3: like McLaurin. This Eagles defense can be good. I don't

1426
01:05:21,360 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 3: believe in Sleigh. I think he's over the hell past

1427
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:26,120
Speaker 3: his prime. I think mccorn will make enough plays. I

1428
01:05:26,160 --> 01:05:27,600
Speaker 3: mean this game, I just think it's gonna be ugly.

1429
01:05:27,640 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 3: I think it's like seventeen thirteen, seventeen fourteen. Look, the

1430
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 3: Eagles have a ton of injuries. Miles Sanders is even

1431
01:05:32,840 --> 01:05:37,040
Speaker 3: banged up. So give me the home division dog. It's

1432
01:05:37,120 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 3: gonna come down to one or two plays by both

1433
01:05:38,800 --> 01:05:40,760
Speaker 3: of these defensive lines, Like who's gonna turn it over?

1434
01:05:40,880 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 3: Is gonna get a big strip sack. I'm lowering the

1435
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:45,280
Speaker 3: Eagles in the market, So give me the Skins plus

1436
01:05:45,280 --> 01:05:45,920
Speaker 3: one ninety five.

1437
01:05:46,200 --> 01:05:48,960
Speaker 2: Antonio Gibson baby might be the coming out party. I

1438
01:05:48,960 --> 01:05:50,439
Speaker 2: think that might have been the biggest thing.

1439
01:05:50,480 --> 01:05:51,640
Speaker 3: And the football team.

1440
01:05:51,680 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 4: Did you know, when they released Adrian Peterson, it kind

1441
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 4: of signified that, Okay, we're ready to play modern offense.

1442
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:01,720
Speaker 4: And I think that's that's which hamstrung the Redskins and

1443
01:06:01,760 --> 01:06:04,400
Speaker 4: Dwayne Haskins and his development more than anything last year.

1444
01:06:04,440 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 2: So I expect a little bit of a jump from Haskins.

1445
01:06:06,920 --> 01:06:08,520
Speaker 4: I know I've been down on him, but I think,

1446
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:11,160
Speaker 4: you know, throwing to the back more and throwing more

1447
01:06:11,200 --> 01:06:13,400
Speaker 4: high percentage passes instead of having to kind of have

1448
01:06:13,600 --> 01:06:15,400
Speaker 4: this Peterson in the backfield and then all of a

1449
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:17,800
Speaker 4: sudden you're in third and long. I think that will

1450
01:06:17,840 --> 01:06:20,240
Speaker 4: actually help Haskins. So you know, I don't I don't

1451
01:06:20,240 --> 01:06:23,160
Speaker 4: hate this pick at all. It's ugly, and my pick

1452
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:27,000
Speaker 4: is just as ugly. I'm going with Miami plus two

1453
01:06:27,160 --> 01:06:28,840
Speaker 4: forty five at New England.

1454
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:30,720
Speaker 2: I mean, you have it all in this one.

1455
01:06:31,080 --> 01:06:35,720
Speaker 4: You have the McDaniels without Tom Brady, he's been awful.

1456
01:06:35,760 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 4: You have the first real Brad Belichick without Brady. You

1457
01:06:40,360 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 4: have the question marks of Cam Newton with these horrible

1458
01:06:44,840 --> 01:06:48,240
Speaker 4: receivers who can't separate, and Cam's always been an inaccurate guy.

1459
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 4: You have Cam Newton that hasn't been able to run

1460
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 4: in a year and a half and you know hasn't

1461
01:06:53,400 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 4: been live tackled. You know, we don't know what's going

1462
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 4: to happen with him. I mean, just all these different situations.

1463
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 4: You have the Belichick disciple in Brian Flores. You have

1464
01:07:02,520 --> 01:07:06,200
Speaker 4: Belichick struggling in Week one and the Patriots generally using

1465
01:07:06,240 --> 01:07:09,240
Speaker 4: the early season to feel things out, and you know

1466
01:07:09,240 --> 01:07:12,520
Speaker 4: they usually kicking the gear, you know, in October or November.

1467
01:07:12,600 --> 01:07:15,800
Speaker 4: So it's everything here is just right for an upset.

1468
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,120
Speaker 4: The only better thing would have been if this game

1469
01:07:18,200 --> 01:07:20,760
Speaker 4: was in Miami, because the Patriots seemed to lose in

1470
01:07:20,800 --> 01:07:24,720
Speaker 4: Miami every year. But you know, because they're in Foxborough,

1471
01:07:24,760 --> 01:07:27,600
Speaker 4: you're getting plus two forty five odds at bet MGM.

1472
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:29,960
Speaker 2: Those are pretty long odds.

1473
01:07:30,360 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 4: So I love it, and I love this parlay two

1474
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:35,480
Speaker 4: of the worst teams in the league we have here.

1475
01:07:35,840 --> 01:07:38,880
Speaker 4: If you bet one hundred dollars with the Washington football

1476
01:07:38,920 --> 01:07:42,840
Speaker 4: team at plus one ninety five and the Miami Dolphins

1477
01:07:42,880 --> 01:07:45,800
Speaker 4: at plus two forty five, that is a payout of

1478
01:07:46,080 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 4: nine hundred and eighteen dollars for a total payout of

1479
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:53,680
Speaker 4: betting one hundred and getting back one thy and eighteen dollars.

1480
01:07:53,720 --> 01:07:57,600
Speaker 2: So this is a ten to one parlay. We are back.

1481
01:07:57,680 --> 01:07:59,760
Speaker 2: It's week one. Let's do it.

1482
01:08:00,040 --> 01:08:04,600
Speaker 3: I love it. Washington and Miami week one. It's so scary.

1483
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:06,680
Speaker 3: I don't like looking at Washington too long. I look

1484
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:08,640
Speaker 3: at the left side, their offensive line with Christian and

1485
01:08:08,640 --> 01:08:10,760
Speaker 3: Wes Martin. I look at their d backs like Ronald

1486
01:08:10,840 --> 01:08:12,360
Speaker 3: Darby's going to start a corner for them. He was

1487
01:08:12,360 --> 01:08:15,160
Speaker 3: a cast off from the Eagles, Troy app He's now

1488
01:08:15,200 --> 01:08:18,000
Speaker 3: starting safety. But I don't look too much into it.

1489
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:21,479
Speaker 3: Throw a couple of pesos on it. I'm ready to go.

1490
01:08:21,920 --> 01:08:22,360
Speaker 3: All right.

1491
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:24,519
Speaker 4: Now, we're going to do the best of the rest,

1492
01:08:24,560 --> 01:08:27,040
Speaker 4: which is the games that we have not hit in

1493
01:08:27,160 --> 01:08:28,479
Speaker 4: any other segment.

1494
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:29,719
Speaker 2: So first up stuck.

1495
01:08:29,760 --> 01:08:32,840
Speaker 4: We got Tampa Bay plus three and a half at

1496
01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:38,040
Speaker 4: New Orleans. The majority of the bets and money on

1497
01:08:38,160 --> 01:08:41,679
Speaker 4: the Buccaneers, the total forty eight and a half that's

1498
01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:48,080
Speaker 4: been dropping, the large majority, nearly ninety percent of the

1499
01:08:48,120 --> 01:08:50,600
Speaker 4: bets and money coming in on the over. So we

1500
01:08:50,640 --> 01:08:52,240
Speaker 4: have a little bit of a reverse line move on

1501
01:08:52,280 --> 01:08:54,240
Speaker 4: the total. Thoughts on this game stuff.

1502
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, I don't need to go into

1503
01:08:57,280 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 3: Brady and everything the Bucks are doing. We'll be talking

1504
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:03,600
Speaker 3: about them a lot this year. By the way, the Patriots,

1505
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:05,479
Speaker 3: some of the narrative around them struggling in Miami was

1506
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:07,800
Speaker 3: because Brady hated the community when I was playing in Tampa.

1507
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 3: But I think this line is getting a little The

1508
01:09:09,720 --> 01:09:11,679
Speaker 3: love for Tampa is getting a little two out of hand.

1509
01:09:11,760 --> 01:09:15,519
Speaker 3: I make it in Saints minus four point two point

1510
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:17,360
Speaker 3: three is so I would if I get the Saints

1511
01:09:17,360 --> 01:09:21,240
Speaker 3: minus three at home. Here, I'm taking them the things

1512
01:09:21,320 --> 01:09:25,040
Speaker 3: to watch. The Bucks defense had an enormous jump. They

1513
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 3: went from one of the worst one of the best.

1514
01:09:26,320 --> 01:09:28,320
Speaker 3: Last Yer, No, Todd Bolts came did a great job.

1515
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 3: Was three four. They have the bodies up front. Big

1516
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 3: bodies eat blocks. They're going to be good against the run,

1517
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:36,439
Speaker 3: but I mean being great against the run on defense,

1518
01:09:36,479 --> 01:09:39,519
Speaker 3: it's only gonna eat so far. In the NFL, historically speaking,

1519
01:09:39,560 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 3: there's big regression for these secondaries that have big jumps

1520
01:09:42,360 --> 01:09:44,320
Speaker 3: like this. They have a lot of young guys. Now

1521
01:09:44,320 --> 01:09:47,080
Speaker 3: you're going against Sanders and maybe the best receiver in

1522
01:09:47,120 --> 01:09:50,200
Speaker 3: the NFL and Mike Thomas is I want to see

1523
01:09:50,200 --> 01:09:52,920
Speaker 3: how the secondary performs. What does Brady look like early

1524
01:09:52,960 --> 01:09:55,719
Speaker 3: in this new offense. He's gonna get hit I think

1525
01:09:56,760 --> 01:09:58,720
Speaker 3: early and often, so I think the Bucks love is

1526
01:09:58,720 --> 01:10:01,160
Speaker 3: getting a little two out of hand end here, so

1527
01:10:01,240 --> 01:10:05,200
Speaker 3: I'll be hunting for a Saints minus three or maybe

1528
01:10:05,240 --> 01:10:09,040
Speaker 3: you know, like a pick live early but pregame as

1529
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 3: of right now, nothing for me.

1530
01:10:10,720 --> 01:10:13,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually took the Bucks at plus five when

1531
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:16,280
Speaker 4: it first opened, but now it's kind of right where

1532
01:10:16,320 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 4: I think it should be.

1533
01:10:17,360 --> 01:10:19,000
Speaker 2: How did these guys hold up for the whole year?

1534
01:10:19,040 --> 01:10:21,680
Speaker 4: We got the oldest quarterback matchup in NFL history, So

1535
01:10:22,080 --> 01:10:23,640
Speaker 4: these are two teams that I'm going to kind of

1536
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:25,439
Speaker 4: be monitoring throughout the year.

1537
01:10:25,479 --> 01:10:27,719
Speaker 2: But I could see, I could see.

1538
01:10:27,520 --> 01:10:30,719
Speaker 4: Some you know, value on that under because I think

1539
01:10:30,760 --> 01:10:34,920
Speaker 4: these teams will come out and kind of play very efficiently,

1540
01:10:34,960 --> 01:10:36,600
Speaker 4: but I don't know if they'll necessarily wipe up the

1541
01:10:36,600 --> 01:10:39,200
Speaker 4: scoreboard in Week one. I think there might be some

1542
01:10:39,240 --> 01:10:41,640
Speaker 4: conservative a little bit of conservative.

1543
01:10:41,240 --> 01:10:44,240
Speaker 2: Tiveness, you know, with these two. So I could see

1544
01:10:44,320 --> 01:10:46,759
Speaker 2: kind of a contrarian underplay. But it's totals dropping.

1545
01:10:46,840 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 4: So yeah, nothing, nothing really stands out at this point.

1546
01:10:49,680 --> 01:10:51,080
Speaker 4: Next game, before.

1547
01:10:51,240 --> 01:10:53,160
Speaker 3: You move on, I do want to just say this,

1548
01:10:53,360 --> 01:10:55,920
Speaker 3: there might be a game that is that went down

1549
01:10:55,960 --> 01:10:59,559
Speaker 3: in Fantasy lor I don't know for like DFS players.

1550
01:10:59,640 --> 01:11:04,080
Speaker 3: But last year in Week three, Mike Evans this is

1551
01:11:04,080 --> 01:11:07,040
Speaker 3: against Janoris Jenkins is one of the Saints' starting corners.

1552
01:11:07,040 --> 01:11:09,120
Speaker 3: When he played for the Giants in single when he

1553
01:11:09,160 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 3: was in single coverage against Dejanoris Jenkins, he had seven

1554
01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:14,880
Speaker 3: catches for one hundred and seventy six yards and three

1555
01:11:14,920 --> 01:11:18,360
Speaker 3: touchdowns in Week three last year. I'm interested to see

1556
01:11:18,360 --> 01:11:22,080
Speaker 3: how often Mike Evans gets matched up with Janoris Jenkins

1557
01:11:22,120 --> 01:11:25,640
Speaker 3: and how much Janoris Jenkins is shaking in his boots.

1558
01:11:25,760 --> 01:11:28,599
Speaker 4: It's a totally different quarterback though, so like Jameis Winston,

1559
01:11:28,680 --> 01:11:29,400
Speaker 4: he'll let it fly.

1560
01:11:29,880 --> 01:11:32,519
Speaker 2: I don't know if Brady's kind of it's gonna be

1561
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:35,320
Speaker 2: so interesting to say. He's had such a different type

1562
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:37,840
Speaker 2: of receiving core in New England. So yeah, we'll see.

1563
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:40,280
Speaker 2: But yeah, nothing nothing really at three and a half.

1564
01:11:40,400 --> 01:11:42,280
Speaker 2: Took it at five. You like it at three for

1565
01:11:42,320 --> 01:11:43,200
Speaker 2: the Saints.

1566
01:11:43,320 --> 01:11:48,160
Speaker 4: Indianapolis minus seven and a half at the Jacksonville Jaguars

1567
01:11:48,400 --> 01:11:50,599
Speaker 4: about two thirds of the bets and money coming in

1568
01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:53,719
Speaker 4: on the Colts. The totals forty four and a half,

1569
01:11:53,920 --> 01:11:57,400
Speaker 4: with the majority the large majority, about three quarters of

1570
01:11:57,479 --> 01:11:59,720
Speaker 4: the bets and even more of the money on the

1571
01:12:00,680 --> 01:12:01,360
Speaker 4: in this one.

1572
01:12:02,040 --> 01:12:04,880
Speaker 3: I mean, this game is gross. You're I'm supposed to

1573
01:12:04,920 --> 01:12:06,600
Speaker 3: take the Jags. I don't know if I will or not.

1574
01:12:07,000 --> 01:12:09,680
Speaker 3: You know, again, it's a division home dog catching over

1575
01:12:09,840 --> 01:12:12,439
Speaker 3: touchdown in week one. I make it like six eight

1576
01:12:14,000 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 3: six seven, six eight, So obviously getting over a touchdown

1577
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:19,280
Speaker 3: there's some value there, and you know, I want to

1578
01:12:19,280 --> 01:12:21,600
Speaker 3: see how Rivers looks. That scary thing is like the

1579
01:12:21,640 --> 01:12:24,479
Speaker 3: Colts running against this defense, which was so bad against

1580
01:12:24,479 --> 01:12:25,640
Speaker 3: the run last year. The only one that was good

1581
01:12:25,640 --> 01:12:28,800
Speaker 3: against the RUMs the class Campbell. He's gone. They'd let

1582
01:12:28,840 --> 01:12:34,040
Speaker 3: everyone go. This whole defense is brand new, So there's

1583
01:12:34,160 --> 01:12:36,240
Speaker 3: questions all over the Jags roster. They're obviously just in

1584
01:12:36,320 --> 01:12:39,360
Speaker 3: complete rebuild mode. But it's this is like the week

1585
01:12:39,400 --> 01:12:42,759
Speaker 3: that you would get the most inspired effort from the Jags.

1586
01:12:43,400 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 3: Everyone is just saying how much they suck. So if

1587
01:12:45,280 --> 01:12:47,920
Speaker 3: you if you're going to back the Jags, you're getting

1588
01:12:47,920 --> 01:12:52,240
Speaker 3: over seven at home against the Colts. This might be

1589
01:12:52,320 --> 01:12:53,960
Speaker 3: the week. Or I mean, maybe they just are that

1590
01:12:54,120 --> 01:12:56,360
Speaker 3: bad and they're there. They're gonna be like the Dolphins

1591
01:12:56,360 --> 01:12:57,920
Speaker 3: in their lines get out of hand and then they

1592
01:12:57,920 --> 01:13:02,679
Speaker 3: start covering. It's the Jags. I won't bet the Colts.

1593
01:13:02,920 --> 01:13:04,800
Speaker 3: If you want to tease the Colts mathematically, it's a

1594
01:13:04,800 --> 01:13:08,240
Speaker 3: good play. I'll contemplate the Jags all weekend, maybe play them,

1595
01:13:08,240 --> 01:13:09,719
Speaker 3: but it's Jags are nothing over seven.

1596
01:13:10,200 --> 01:13:10,400
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1597
01:13:10,439 --> 01:13:13,200
Speaker 4: I took the Jags plus eight when the line first opened.

1598
01:13:13,760 --> 01:13:17,719
Speaker 4: I just think that as an underdog going against Philip Rivers,

1599
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 4: I like those odds just because you know, we know

1600
01:13:21,080 --> 01:13:23,679
Speaker 4: the Colts will be able to run. But if Philip

1601
01:13:23,760 --> 01:13:26,519
Speaker 4: Rivers at any point has to make a play in

1602
01:13:26,520 --> 01:13:28,720
Speaker 4: this game, he's liable to turn it over pretty much

1603
01:13:28,760 --> 01:13:31,280
Speaker 4: more than any quarterback in the weegue with Jameis Winston

1604
01:13:31,360 --> 01:13:34,559
Speaker 4: now you know, as a as a backup. So that's

1605
01:13:34,560 --> 01:13:36,320
Speaker 4: the one thing that can swing games more than and

1606
01:13:36,320 --> 01:13:40,160
Speaker 4: swings and swing spreads more than anything else is turnovers.

1607
01:13:40,200 --> 01:13:43,559
Speaker 4: So Philip Rivers don't necessarily trust them. And this goes

1608
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:45,439
Speaker 4: you know, going forward too, because I think the Colts

1609
01:13:45,439 --> 01:13:47,160
Speaker 4: have an easy schedule and they're going to be favored

1610
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:47,519
Speaker 4: a lot.

1611
01:13:48,160 --> 01:13:51,519
Speaker 2: You know, don't don't trust Philip Rivers in these spots.

1612
01:13:51,560 --> 01:13:52,559
Speaker 2: It would be my advice.

1613
01:13:52,600 --> 01:13:55,679
Speaker 4: So yeah, tease tease down maybe would be the best

1614
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:57,640
Speaker 4: way to go with this one. And then we have

1615
01:13:57,720 --> 01:14:03,120
Speaker 4: the Chargers three point faise at the Cincinnati Bengals, just

1616
01:14:03,200 --> 01:14:06,120
Speaker 4: over half of the money in bets on the Bengals,

1617
01:14:06,479 --> 01:14:09,840
Speaker 4: the total forty three and a half, seventy five percent

1618
01:14:10,280 --> 01:14:13,120
Speaker 4: of the bets and pretty much all of the money

1619
01:14:13,200 --> 01:14:14,439
Speaker 4: on the under in this one.

1620
01:14:14,720 --> 01:14:17,799
Speaker 3: Yeah under key number of forty three. So I actually

1621
01:14:17,840 --> 01:14:20,519
Speaker 3: like the under here. I'm gonna I think the Chargers

1622
01:14:20,520 --> 01:14:22,519
Speaker 3: are going to be an under team until the market

1623
01:14:22,560 --> 01:14:26,120
Speaker 3: corrects them into like, you know, Jets territory. You know,

1624
01:14:26,240 --> 01:14:28,839
Speaker 3: do you have Borrow excitement, but he's a rookie quarterback

1625
01:14:28,840 --> 01:14:31,200
Speaker 3: without preseason, without everything going into a new system. And

1626
01:14:31,240 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 3: I know there's exciting weapons, but the offensive line tons

1627
01:14:33,320 --> 01:14:37,080
Speaker 3: of questions against a great defensive line off the edge,

1628
01:14:37,120 --> 01:14:40,160
Speaker 3: and you have a Chargers offensive line that has a

1629
01:14:40,200 --> 01:14:42,000
Speaker 3: lot of questions and counts. You might not go at

1630
01:14:42,040 --> 01:14:44,080
Speaker 3: center this week. So I think this's a team a

1631
01:14:44,120 --> 01:14:47,440
Speaker 3: game where the defensive lines could dominate the line of scrimmage.

1632
01:14:47,880 --> 01:14:50,040
Speaker 3: I think Borrow's going to struggle early on, you know,

1633
01:14:50,120 --> 01:14:52,760
Speaker 3: especially against the team like the Chargers in Week one,

1634
01:14:53,160 --> 01:14:56,280
Speaker 3: and the Chargers have good corners and it's gonna take Borrow,

1635
01:14:56,439 --> 01:14:58,439
Speaker 3: you know, at least a couple of quarters to get

1636
01:14:58,439 --> 01:14:59,720
Speaker 3: into it here. And then I think, on the other side,

1637
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:02,640
Speaker 3: the are just going to be in my mind this

1638
01:15:02,920 --> 01:15:05,439
Speaker 3: ball control. We're gonna run the ball time. I mean,

1639
01:15:05,479 --> 01:15:08,000
Speaker 3: it's tire tay. He's not gonna throw picks, but he's

1640
01:15:08,000 --> 01:15:10,800
Speaker 3: not gonna throw seventy yard touchdowns. He's gonna run it

1641
01:15:10,960 --> 01:15:13,400
Speaker 3: a bunch. He's gonna keep the clock moving. He's not

1642
01:15:13,400 --> 01:15:15,280
Speaker 3: gonna have a bad pick six, which is a killer

1643
01:15:15,280 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 3: for an under. So I think the Charges are gonna

1644
01:15:17,000 --> 01:15:18,559
Speaker 3: rely on their defense. They're gonna try to win games

1645
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:22,200
Speaker 3: like twenty to seventeen, seventeen to fourteen, and then with

1646
01:15:22,240 --> 01:15:24,920
Speaker 3: I think what's gonna be some struggles early in Sincy

1647
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:28,720
Speaker 3: with Burrow just getting up to speed reading you know,

1648
01:15:28,840 --> 01:15:32,439
Speaker 3: these NFL defenses, and then the Bengals offensive line as questions.

1649
01:15:32,479 --> 01:15:34,400
Speaker 3: So this I think is a good Week one under.

1650
01:15:34,439 --> 01:15:36,519
Speaker 3: But again, forty three is a key number, so make

1651
01:15:36,560 --> 01:15:39,160
Speaker 3: sure you grab that or hunt that out if you

1652
01:15:39,240 --> 01:15:39,840
Speaker 3: if you like it.

1653
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:43,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've thought about this under, but kind of something

1654
01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:45,920
Speaker 4: in the back of my head keeps saying, if there's

1655
01:15:45,960 --> 01:15:48,759
Speaker 4: any quarterback that's gonna kind of we're just gonna.

1656
01:15:48,520 --> 01:15:49,200
Speaker 2: Be completely wrong.

1657
01:15:49,240 --> 01:15:51,800
Speaker 4: About in Week one, it's probably Joe Burrow, Like he's

1658
01:15:51,800 --> 01:15:54,400
Speaker 4: got the talent to just come out just gunning, and like,

1659
01:15:54,760 --> 01:15:56,360
Speaker 4: you know, they haven't seen any film on him in

1660
01:15:56,360 --> 01:15:58,840
Speaker 4: the NFL. So you know, if there's anyone that's gonna

1661
01:15:58,880 --> 01:16:00,479
Speaker 4: come out and just like put up twenty eight on

1662
01:16:00,520 --> 01:16:03,200
Speaker 4: you before you even blink, you know, just kind of

1663
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:05,800
Speaker 4: long shot, it's Burrow, and I do worry about you know.

1664
01:16:05,840 --> 01:16:07,960
Speaker 4: I also kind of thought about the Bengals as as

1665
01:16:07,960 --> 01:16:11,200
Speaker 4: a money line pick as well, because I think there's

1666
01:16:11,200 --> 01:16:13,920
Speaker 4: just kind of some uncertainty here with Burrow, and I

1667
01:16:13,960 --> 01:16:16,640
Speaker 4: don't think there's that uncertainty with Tyrod. It's like we

1668
01:16:16,720 --> 01:16:18,519
Speaker 4: kind of know what we're gonna get. I don't expect

1669
01:16:18,560 --> 01:16:20,360
Speaker 4: Tyrod to come out and put up thirty five. So

1670
01:16:21,240 --> 01:16:23,960
Speaker 4: I'm not sure how I'm attacked this game yet, But

1671
01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:27,240
Speaker 4: I do think Burrow it could kind of go, it

1672
01:16:27,280 --> 01:16:29,120
Speaker 4: could kind of go really good to really.

1673
01:16:28,920 --> 01:16:32,000
Speaker 2: Bad, and that kind of influences how you bet this game.

1674
01:16:32,120 --> 01:16:32,559
Speaker 3: That's fair.

1675
01:16:32,640 --> 01:16:35,200
Speaker 2: All right, We're gonna wrap it up with our Survivor

1676
01:16:35,200 --> 01:16:35,840
Speaker 2: Pool pick of.

1677
01:16:35,840 --> 01:16:37,600
Speaker 3: The Week one pick.

1678
01:16:38,840 --> 01:16:43,520
Speaker 1: One chance to advance Survivor.

1679
01:16:44,640 --> 01:16:46,040
Speaker 2: All right, man, is.

1680
01:16:46,200 --> 01:16:48,960
Speaker 4: This is the this is the good stuff here. We're

1681
01:16:48,960 --> 01:16:51,479
Speaker 4: trying to stay alive in our survivor pool. We're kind

1682
01:16:51,479 --> 01:16:53,880
Speaker 4: of just going one v one here. I actually stayed

1683
01:16:53,920 --> 01:16:56,120
Speaker 4: alive to the end last year. I think, so what

1684
01:16:56,240 --> 01:16:57,360
Speaker 4: team killed you last year?

1685
01:16:57,400 --> 01:17:00,679
Speaker 2: It was some ridiculous the Chiefs against the Colts with yeah,

1686
01:17:00,800 --> 01:17:03,760
Speaker 2: I had that home in like actual I bet the

1687
01:17:03,800 --> 01:17:04,800
Speaker 2: chief money line of that game.

1688
01:17:04,840 --> 01:17:07,639
Speaker 4: So I'm with you, But I can't believe I'm doing this.

1689
01:17:07,800 --> 01:17:10,040
Speaker 4: But I look up and down the slate and there's

1690
01:17:10,080 --> 01:17:12,200
Speaker 4: not a lot of like truly confident bets.

1691
01:17:12,479 --> 01:17:15,240
Speaker 2: So I'm going with the Steelers against the Giants.

1692
01:17:15,600 --> 01:17:17,800
Speaker 4: And this is yeah, this is a spot with the

1693
01:17:17,840 --> 01:17:21,439
Speaker 4: Steeers sometimes on the road sometimes there if he but

1694
01:17:21,960 --> 01:17:23,960
Speaker 4: you look on Monday Night football, they've been pretty good.

1695
01:17:24,000 --> 01:17:26,599
Speaker 4: They're sixteen and two under Tomlin on Monday Night. I

1696
01:17:26,680 --> 01:17:29,240
Speaker 4: just think their defense is a mismatch for the New

1697
01:17:29,320 --> 01:17:32,040
Speaker 4: York Giants. I think Daniel Jones will turn them all

1698
01:17:32,040 --> 01:17:33,840
Speaker 4: over too much. I think you're gonna get enough out

1699
01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:37,880
Speaker 4: of Ben Roethlisberger, you know too, you know over what

1700
01:17:37,920 --> 01:17:39,960
Speaker 4: you would have gotten out of, you know, the guys

1701
01:17:40,040 --> 01:17:43,519
Speaker 4: on that team last year to get a win against

1702
01:17:43,560 --> 01:17:45,559
Speaker 4: the Giants in Week one, I.

1703
01:17:45,560 --> 01:17:47,680
Speaker 3: Don't hate it. It's a tough week. I have a

1704
01:17:47,720 --> 01:17:51,280
Speaker 3: Survivor piece article out on actually Network. Check that out.

1705
01:17:51,320 --> 01:17:54,280
Speaker 3: I basically plan out my entire Survivors' strategy. Now they

1706
01:17:54,280 --> 01:17:56,479
Speaker 3: can change injuries and teams are better or worse, but

1707
01:17:57,040 --> 01:17:58,720
Speaker 3: just planning out, Okay, I want to be a little

1708
01:17:58,800 --> 01:18:00,760
Speaker 3: risky earlier in the year. I basically want to save

1709
01:18:00,880 --> 01:18:04,280
Speaker 3: like the Ravens and the Chiefs until like week nine

1710
01:18:04,360 --> 01:18:06,800
Speaker 3: or ten, when most people would have used them now

1711
01:18:06,840 --> 01:18:09,120
Speaker 3: and by then and if I can survive to then

1712
01:18:09,160 --> 01:18:10,720
Speaker 3: I can have the Ravens and Chiefs. I could, and

1713
01:18:10,760 --> 01:18:12,479
Speaker 3: you want to use them before week sixteen and seventeen

1714
01:18:12,479 --> 01:18:15,120
Speaker 3: in case they've locked some things up. But that's my

1715
01:18:15,160 --> 01:18:18,559
Speaker 3: approach to I'm a little I'm a little riskier earlier

1716
01:18:18,600 --> 01:18:21,880
Speaker 3: in the season and then just try to get by

1717
01:18:21,920 --> 01:18:24,240
Speaker 3: and save the elite teams in my back pocket. So

1718
01:18:24,680 --> 01:18:28,120
Speaker 3: my pick for week one, it's actually not that risky.

1719
01:18:28,160 --> 01:18:30,240
Speaker 3: But I have a couple coming up which will be

1720
01:18:30,240 --> 01:18:32,400
Speaker 3: on future podcasts. But my pick for Week one is

1721
01:18:32,400 --> 01:18:37,120
Speaker 3: the Bills against the Jets. Very comfortable with the assumption

1722
01:18:37,160 --> 01:18:38,760
Speaker 3: that the Bills are going to win this game, and

1723
01:18:39,360 --> 01:18:41,519
Speaker 3: you know, I look at their schedule, and it's not

1724
01:18:41,600 --> 01:18:44,759
Speaker 3: like there's a ton of complete locks for this team,

1725
01:18:45,000 --> 01:18:47,200
Speaker 3: So I'm okay looking at their schedule when they match

1726
01:18:47,240 --> 01:18:50,160
Speaker 3: up with other teams using the bills here weeks two

1727
01:18:50,160 --> 01:18:52,800
Speaker 3: through four, I might take the little bit of chances,

1728
01:18:52,800 --> 01:18:54,840
Speaker 3: a little bit of teaser, but I'm using the bills

1729
01:18:54,840 --> 01:18:56,120
Speaker 3: here in week one and a tough week. There's no

1730
01:18:56,120 --> 01:18:57,080
Speaker 3: double digit spreads.

1731
01:18:57,320 --> 01:18:59,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, the bills are kind of my second choice.

1732
01:18:59,680 --> 01:19:02,960
Speaker 4: I just kind of went with the quarterback that I

1733
01:19:02,960 --> 01:19:04,599
Speaker 4: thought it was a little less likely to turn it over.

1734
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:06,880
Speaker 2: Although I don't know Ben Ben on the road, maybe not.

1735
01:19:07,120 --> 01:19:10,360
Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm right there. Which I took the bills

1736
01:19:10,360 --> 01:19:12,040
Speaker 2: in a number of other spots on the spot. So

1737
01:19:12,680 --> 01:19:14,760
Speaker 2: we'll see, we'll see if we survive. Hope you guys

1738
01:19:14,840 --> 01:19:16,120
Speaker 2: enjoyed the episode.

1739
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:19,439
Speaker 4: You can find Stuck on Twitter at Stucky Too, and

1740
01:19:19,560 --> 01:19:21,080
Speaker 4: in the same handle on the.

1741
01:19:21,000 --> 01:19:21,880
Speaker 2: Action Network app.

1742
01:19:21,880 --> 01:19:24,400
Speaker 4: You can find me at Chris Raybond on Twitter and

1743
01:19:24,479 --> 01:19:27,080
Speaker 4: the Action Network app. Be sure to check out actionnetwork

1744
01:19:27,479 --> 01:19:29,600
Speaker 4: dot com for all of our great.

1745
01:19:29,360 --> 01:19:32,479
Speaker 2: NFL betting and fantasy content.

1746
01:19:32,640 --> 01:19:48,920
Speaker 9: Till next week, let's get this money.

1747
01:19:51,240 --> 01:19:52,320
Speaker 3: We're finished talking