1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarckley and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: President Trump speaking right now in a cabinet meeting that 7 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:31,159 Speaker 2: Elon Musk is a featured guest that we understand, and 8 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,440 Speaker 2: we're going to have part of that conversation for you 9 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 2: once it concludes a bit later on this hour, as 10 00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:39,199 Speaker 2: we straddle as usual both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, with 11 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: lawmakers getting back into town today in a massive project 12 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 2: ahead that we've discussed more than once. Reconciliation making permanent 13 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:50,280 Speaker 2: or at least extending the Trump tax cuts, lifting the 14 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 2: debt ceiling, and what the President likes to call one big, 15 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 2: beautiful bill. With an important meeting between House and Senate 16 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: leaders set for tomorrow. It's a great pleasure to have 17 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 2: Congressman Bill Heiseenga back with us, the Republican from Michigan's 18 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: fourth district. Congressman, welcome back to town. It's good to 19 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 2: see you. With so much on the table here. I 20 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 2: wonder your thought on the approach to writing this legislation 21 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,319 Speaker 2: and the extent to which the DOGE will be codified 22 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 2: in this bill. 23 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,759 Speaker 3: Well, good to be back with you, Joe and Hi Kiley. 24 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 3: And look, there's a lot of work to be done. 25 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: We know that. I'm glad to see these steps being 26 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 3: taken by House leadership Senate leadership. We're going to have 27 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:34,160 Speaker 3: to reach consensus. And yes, the one big beautiful bill 28 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,720 Speaker 3: would be the preference of the House. I think here's 29 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 3: the why there's a lot of us that are just 30 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 3: questioning whether there's going to be a true second bite 31 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 3: at the apple, and that means capturing both the essence 32 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:50,720 Speaker 3: of what DOGE is trying to do, which is to 33 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 3: streamline and drive efficiencies into government which it desperately needs, 34 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 3: as well as making sure that we capitalize on this 35 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 3: opportun unity to make sure that there isn't a twenty 36 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 3: two percent increase in taxes or the average American family. 37 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:13,079 Speaker 3: I mean, despite all the Democrats cattle wauling about billionaires 38 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 3: and millionaires and now this is going to be helping 39 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,600 Speaker 3: on the simple fact is that with this expires, you're 40 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 3: going to see twenty two percent increase in taxes for 41 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 3: those families, You're going to see small businesses hurt dramatically. 42 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,560 Speaker 3: Nfib says, this is going to be a dramatic impact 43 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,320 Speaker 3: on their members. So we've got to go and get 44 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 3: this done well. 45 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 4: One of the differences between the House and Senate's propositions 46 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 4: on this, Congressman, is that the House bill includes a 47 00:02:39,960 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 4: raising of the debt ceiling. Considering we just got an 48 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,919 Speaker 4: estimate from the Bipartisan Policy Center out with a guess 49 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,320 Speaker 4: on the X state when we would theoretically default on 50 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,480 Speaker 4: our debt between mid July and October, knowing the deadline 51 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 4: to extend the twenty seventeen tax because isn't really intel 52 00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 4: year end. Do you foresee that the debt ceiling fight 53 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 4: is going to have to be separated, maybe so that 54 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:04,399 Speaker 4: you can grab some Democratic votes along the way. 55 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 3: That's a good question. I mean, that's a matter of strategy. Frankly, 56 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 3: as we're moving through this, it's going to need to happen. 57 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:15,960 Speaker 3: And you know, this is what I always say to 58 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:18,480 Speaker 3: folks who say, oh, well, we don't need a debt ceiling, 59 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 3: or yes, we cannot give this up. You have to 60 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 3: look at what the purpose of the debt ceiling vote 61 00:03:23,919 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 3: was and it was to bring attention to a serious issue, 62 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 3: a growing issue, and then it was curb behavior. Well, 63 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: I'm not sure people have really been paying attention as 64 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 3: we've driven this up to thirty six trillion dollars in debt, 65 00:03:36,720 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 3: and you have to ask yourself whether this is really 66 00:03:39,840 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 3: curbed behavior. So what I'm pushing for is, let's make 67 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 3: sure that we have something in place that is a 68 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 3: catalyst for the conversation. Clearly, purely a debt ceiling election 69 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:55,760 Speaker 3: or a debt ceiling vote hasn't been doing the job 70 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 3: in my opinion, So what is it that we're going 71 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 3: to put in play? So, but I think we need 72 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:05,240 Speaker 3: to have something to drive that conversation. So it's going 73 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 3: to be one of those points of debate and certainly 74 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 3: a negotiation. But we know that the President wants this 75 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,600 Speaker 3: off his plate as well, and so I think he'll 76 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 3: have a compelling argument when it comes to the Senate leadership. 77 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 2: I'm sure you've been watching and listening to a difficult 78 00:04:22,680 --> 00:04:24,760 Speaker 2: conversation on the other side of the aisle from your 79 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 2: purge congressman with a lot of angry Democrats following the 80 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 2: debate over the CR and Chuck Schumer's eventual decision to 81 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 2: back it. He was sticking up for himself on Sunday morning, 82 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: still fending off calls for him to step down. I 83 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: don't know if this is going to be a purely 84 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:45,039 Speaker 2: Republican exercise. It is reconciliation. You have every right for 85 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 2: it to be. I just wonder if Democrats should be 86 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 2: or will be involved in the ground floor talks that 87 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 2: are getting started. 88 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 5: Now. 89 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 3: Well, those are two things should be and will be 90 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 3: are very very different around here. You know, we should 91 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 3: have had every Democrat that's ever complained about a potential 92 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 3: government shutdown on that CR. But they didn't, And it 93 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 3: begs begs the question, which is why. And I think 94 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: the obvious answer to that is politics. And look, if 95 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 3: the Democrats want to trot Bertie Sanders Sanders and AOC 96 00:05:17,800 --> 00:05:22,720 Speaker 3: out and do a nationwide you know, arena tour, knock 97 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 3: yourself out. Yes, you were getting some big crowds, but 98 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:29,720 Speaker 3: I do not believe that is where most of America is, 99 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:33,279 Speaker 3: and that is going to be problematic I think for 100 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 3: them on their side of this equation. But you know, nonetheless, 101 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 3: we're going to need to work through this on the 102 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 3: reconciliation side, and we might see a few of those 103 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 3: more clear eyed, clear minded Democrat colleagues come across and say, look, 104 00:05:49,200 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 3: this really is our best opportunity. And if we're going 105 00:05:52,680 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 3: to see forty million families have their per child tax 106 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,240 Speaker 3: credit cut in half, that's an impacts that's not a 107 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 3: Republican issue. That's not a Democrat issue. That's not a 108 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 3: red state blue state issue. That's a family issue that 109 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 3: is going to impact the checkbook of many, many families 110 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 3: sitting around the kitchen table trying to figure out how 111 00:06:12,640 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 3: do they afford gas and groceries and school supplies and 112 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,640 Speaker 3: all the other stuff, much less take a vacation or 113 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 3: anything else. So that I think is going to be 114 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 3: the essence of this. 115 00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 4: Well, something else that could affect the checkbook of American families, Congressman, 116 00:06:26,160 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 4: is if the cost of goods is effectively risen, at 117 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 4: least for some of them, due to tariffs that are 118 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,839 Speaker 4: either in place now or the President has threatened to 119 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 4: put in place. Further, we just heard from him in 120 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 4: a cabinet meeting saying he'll be announcing car tariffs shortly 121 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,960 Speaker 4: pharma at some point. But we've also had our own 122 00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 4: reporting internally here at Bloomberg that on April second, he's 123 00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 4: actually looking at something a bit more paired back than 124 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 4: the sweeping tariffs. He's been talking about what is your 125 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 4: hope here on the actual outcome, what level of tariffs, 126 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 4: and on what goods is actually appropriate to achieve his 127 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,599 Speaker 4: objectives without hurting that checkbook you were just speaking about. 128 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, well, Kaylee, I always bring up to people who 129 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,719 Speaker 3: might be sitting in these chairs behind me here in 130 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 3: my office wanting to discuss all this. You have to 131 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 3: look at what is policy and what's tactic, right, and 132 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 3: I think we've seen more tactic than actual policy numbers, 133 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 3: hard numbers out of the President so far. And good 134 00:07:21,120 --> 00:07:24,559 Speaker 3: for him. Here's his goal and objective, drive as much 135 00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:29,360 Speaker 3: business back into the United States as physically possible, to 136 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 3: make sure that we've got good paying jobs here in 137 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 3: the United States, that we are taking care of our 138 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 3: citizens first and foremost, and that we've got a robust 139 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 3: economy and the fundamentals of the economy are sound, especially 140 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 3: when we're talking about making sure that energy policy is rational, 141 00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: not what we've had for the last four years, making 142 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 3: sure that we are putting those tax Cuts and Jobs 143 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 3: Act provisions back in place, making sure that we have 144 00:07:56,480 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 3: a efficiency and a pairing down of federal government and 145 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:05,720 Speaker 3: government frankly at all levels that has hindered growth. So yes, 146 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 3: tariffs is going to be a part of that. I 147 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,559 Speaker 3: know that that the Swiss and others that are dealing 148 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 3: with pharmaceuticals have wanted to make sure that they are 149 00:08:15,200 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 3: working with the administration. You happen to bring those up Michigan. 150 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 3: You know, we've got a tremendous number of automotive suppliers, 151 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 3: Tier one, Tier two, tier three automotive suppliers, A lot 152 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:29,320 Speaker 3: of them are looking at how they bring this back 153 00:08:29,400 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 3: to the United States if at all possible. It's interesting 154 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,880 Speaker 3: that the United Auto Workers are in support of the tariffs. 155 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,960 Speaker 3: The Canadian Auto Workers are not. That is, you know, 156 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: to the union that's usually together is actually split on 157 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 3: this one. So you know, there's there's going to be 158 00:08:46,040 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 3: some bumpy bumps in this road, there's no doubt. But 159 00:08:49,840 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 3: I think we have to look at what that end 160 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 3: game is, and that's to make America stronger, more prosperous, 161 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 3: and and and stronger on the world stage. And I 162 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,719 Speaker 3: think President Trump is absolutely doing that well. 163 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 2: When we consider the concept of re shoring, whether it's 164 00:09:05,960 --> 00:09:09,120 Speaker 2: the auto industry you mentioned, or high tech, whether it's 165 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 2: chips or pursuing AI, you need energy for all of that. Congressman, 166 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 2: and I want to ask you about this nuclear plant 167 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 2: in your backyard that's being relt with help from a 168 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 2: grant from this White House, the Palisades Nuclear Generating Station. 169 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,160 Speaker 2: If this thing is repaired and gets back online, is 170 00:09:26,200 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 2: that for the better of your grid in your district 171 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:30,280 Speaker 2: or are you going to be announcing a deal with 172 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,280 Speaker 2: a hyperscaler at some point that's going to park a 173 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 2: data center next to that plant. 174 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 3: Well, they look, the way we have energy that's crossing 175 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 3: around in the Midwest is the MISO and we need 176 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 3: to have a grid that is robust. Palisades was actually 177 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 3: taken offline and decommissioned. This is the first recommissioning of 178 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,959 Speaker 3: one of those plants. Three Mile Island is being discussed 179 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 3: about another one out in Iowa. And this is a 180 00:09:56,800 --> 00:10:01,080 Speaker 3: fifty six million dollar loan guarantee that's part of a 181 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 3: larger package that I was glad to see went from 182 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 3: the Biden administration. And I want to say thanks to 183 00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 3: Secretary Right and President Trump for pushing this through as well, 184 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 3: making sure that it's happening, because at the end of 185 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,960 Speaker 3: the day, if it is about energy independence and making 186 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:22,480 Speaker 3: sure that we've got the ability to power our economic recovery, 187 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 3: that's not just traditional oil and gas. This is making 188 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 3: sure that we have nuclear available available and developing those 189 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 3: those small modular reactors SMRs, and you might see those 190 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,840 Speaker 3: surrounding this because you've got the grid in place, so 191 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 3: you don't have all the delay and permitting and a 192 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 3: lot of those things. So this is good not just 193 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 3: for Southwest Michigan or Michigan. This is good for the country. 194 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 3: And we've got to figure out if this is a 195 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 3: very viable way of repowering ourselves. And I'm glad to 196 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:01,840 Speaker 3: see it happening in southwest Michigan. 197 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 4: Well, that's a domestic nuclear power plant, Congressman. I'd also 198 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 4: like to ask you, given your seat on the Foreign 199 00:11:08,160 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 4: Affairs Committee, about nuclear power plant or potentially plants plural 200 00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:17,199 Speaker 4: abroad in Ukraine or areas of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia. 201 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 4: President Trump during the Cabinet meeting talked about talking with 202 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 4: Ukraine about nuclear power plant ownership. We know Zaparizia has 203 00:11:23,880 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 4: come up in conversations with President Zelinsky. We also heard 204 00:11:27,640 --> 00:11:30,520 Speaker 4: from Secretary of State Marco Rubio during this cabinet meeting 205 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 4: that there is no military solution to the Russia Ukraine war. 206 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 4: As you hear the words coming from the administration, track 207 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 4: the efforts toward peace that are underway, and what you're 208 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 4: hearing on the committee, where do you think this goes 209 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 4: from here? What does the US end up with and 210 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:46,400 Speaker 4: Ukraine and Russia end up with. 211 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,560 Speaker 3: Well, that's part of the negotiations, and certainly this the 212 00:11:50,640 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 3: mineral agreement, was a big step of that. I know 213 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 3: the President played some hardball on that, and he should have. 214 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 3: I'm glad he did. I thought it was out of 215 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 3: bounds what President Zelensky had done, and now that will 216 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 3: drive hopefully an understanding and an agreement between our two countries. 217 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 3: Exact same thing could be happening with the nuclear power plants, 218 00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 3: and of course those are more unique in that they're 219 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 3: not just inert, right, you know, I mean, they have 220 00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 3: to be actively taken care of, they have to be 221 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 3: tended to, they have to be utilized, and if you don't, 222 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 3: or you bomb them or do something terrible like that, 223 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:34,360 Speaker 3: there's you know, real consequences to that. So it's a 224 00:12:34,400 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 3: beneficial I think for Ukraine to have involvement of the 225 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 3: United States, whether it's US government or US companies that 226 00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 3: are involved and engaged in that. And I think we 227 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 3: can get there. I really do. And I think Secretary 228 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 3: of Rubio is right after we've seen billions of dollars 229 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 3: getting poured in to Ukraine and that conflict. You know, 230 00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 3: they're at kind of a stalemate. Now the Ukrainians have 231 00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 3: to figure out what exactly is that going to mean? 232 00:13:01,280 --> 00:13:04,080 Speaker 3: You know, I mean, but let's all remember twenty percent 233 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 3: of the country of Georgia next to Crimeas under Russian occupation. 234 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 3: Crimea became under occupation during the Obama administration. Joe Biden 235 00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:18,760 Speaker 3: called it a small incursion, a minor incursion when Russia 236 00:13:18,960 --> 00:13:23,719 Speaker 3: initially came in a couple of years ago. So at 237 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 3: this point, we've got to come up with a solution. 238 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,719 Speaker 3: It's costing millions of lives. I want to make sure 239 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 3: that there's no US lives, but I don't want to 240 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 3: see any lives getting lost over this. So I'm glad 241 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 3: to see him President Trump and President Zelenski and Putin 242 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 3: having the conversations that they need, and I'm thankful to 243 00:13:41,960 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 3: Frankly the Saudist for hosting a lot of that conversation, 244 00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 3: whether it's both in Gaza and Israel, but as well 245 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 3: as this Russia and Ukraine problem. 246 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,679 Speaker 4: All right, Congressman, thank you so much for your time. 247 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 4: That's Republican Congressman Bill Hazenga of Michigan joining us live 248 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 4: here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. 249 00:14:04,559 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. 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We're going to be talking at the top 262 00:14:44,040 --> 00:14:47,880 Speaker 2: of our next hour with Congressman Bill heizinga Republican from 263 00:14:47,920 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 2: Michigan fourth District, with Trump tax cuts on the agenda, 264 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 2: a debt ceiling that needs to be raised, and a 265 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 2: lot of work, a lot of tough work that needs 266 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 2: to be done between the House and the Senate when 267 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 2: it comes to the Republican reconciliation plan that we've been 268 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 2: talking about for months, actually get down to it now 269 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: that they have avoided a government shutdown and at least 270 00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 2: have the lights on for the. 271 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:10,800 Speaker 6: Rest of the year. 272 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 2: There's a cabinet meeting underway right now as we prepare 273 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 2: to bring Rick and Jeanie into the conversation. It's one 274 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: that I guess we're going to actually bear witness to. 275 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:19,840 Speaker 2: We didn't know about this earlier, but that's the way 276 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 2: things go with this White House. They have apparently allowed 277 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 2: reporters with cameras and microphones into the room. So pretty 278 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,320 Speaker 2: newsy so far, actually, or is it? I can never 279 00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:30,520 Speaker 2: tell exactly. Wall Street's in a good mood right now, 280 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 2: so we're not going to mess with it. The president's 281 00:15:32,680 --> 00:15:37,800 Speaker 2: talking about tariffs again, having promised a secondary tariff on 282 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 2: Venezuela earlier today in a truth social post, he says, 283 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:45,040 Speaker 2: and that, by the way, is something the president's been 284 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 2: talking about here, but announcing cars and pharma. Cars shortly, 285 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 2: he says, pharma at some point, and we went up 286 00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:59,000 Speaker 2: with the red head announcing car tariff shortly pharma at 287 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:03,640 Speaker 2: some point twelve twenty seven pm East Coast time. Markets 288 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 2: really didn't blink. We're still looking pretty good here. The 289 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred one and a half percent. 290 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: Nasdaq is up two percent because, as we think established 291 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 2: with Nathan Dean, nobody knows exactly what any of this 292 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 2: will mean. And it's entirely possible, if not likely, that 293 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 2: all of these sectoral tariffs as we call them, could 294 00:16:21,520 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 2: in fact be delayed again in the spirit of another 295 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 2: review or investigation. But something's gonna happen on April second. 296 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:30,800 Speaker 2: That's Liberation Day, right. Is there a lawmaker by the 297 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 2: way out there who's put Liberation Day up to be 298 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 2: a federal holiday. I'm not even kidding. You've got legislation 299 00:16:38,160 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 2: up there to put Trump on Mount Rushmore, make his 300 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 2: birthday at federal holiday. Liberation Day. April second, that's a 301 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 2: week from Wednesday, and our signature panel is back with 302 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: us I'm happy to say Genie Shanzano and Rick Davis. 303 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 2: Genie is our Democratic analyst, Bloomberg Politics contributor, and political 304 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 2: science professor at Iona University. Rick Davis republican strategist partner 305 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital. Great to see you both here, Genie. 306 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 2: The narrative this morning was that the markets were feeling 307 00:17:09,440 --> 00:17:14,400 Speaker 2: relieved because the tariffs, as Bloomberg it self reported, would 308 00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 2: be more targeted. When you start hearing headlines like this 309 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 2: coming out of the cabinet meeting though from Donald Trump, 310 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:25,360 Speaker 2: from Howard Lutnik, does that further confuse the situation? 311 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 5: You know? 312 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:27,800 Speaker 3: I don't think so. 313 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 5: I think that we have heard this time and time 314 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 5: again from Donald Trump and from the administration. I think 315 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 5: everybody is well aware of quote unquote Liberation Day, and 316 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 5: I think it's sort of like now a wait and 317 00:17:41,160 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 5: see attitude. Does he or doesn't he? And I suspect 318 00:17:44,880 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 5: at some point he will, but it may not be 319 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,400 Speaker 5: on the second, as Nathan was pointing out, But at 320 00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 5: some point it may come. And when it comes, as 321 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,119 Speaker 5: Nathan said, they're very very hard to turn around and 322 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 5: pull off again. So I think people are sort of, 323 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 5: you know, playing right now that this is something they're 324 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 5: expecting at some point in the near future. And auto's 325 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 5: and pharma, as you were reporting, is something he's talked 326 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 5: an awful lot about in this context. 327 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 2: Is Wall Street projecting today, Rick, or is this reporting 328 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: from Bloomberg the real news that a lot of these 329 00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 2: is across the board. Tariffs will never in fact be implemented, 330 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 2: and they'll be a more targeted approach depending on the country. 331 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,040 Speaker 7: Well, I feel like it's a little bit of back 332 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,879 Speaker 7: to the future. You know, in the first administration, we 333 00:18:33,119 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 7: learned that it's not what he says, it's what he 334 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 7: does that matters. And it seems like so far, just 335 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 7: over a month in, we are actually learning the same 336 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 7: lesson all over again. And don't listen to what he says. 337 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:48,520 Speaker 7: Let's watch what he actually does. And what he actually 338 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:52,080 Speaker 7: does so far on tariffs is significantly less than what 339 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,600 Speaker 7: he's been saying he's going to do. And sometimes he 340 00:18:55,760 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 7: does what he says he levies big tariffs on country 341 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 7: is that he pulls off twenty four hours later, thirty 342 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 7: six hours later, forty eight hours later. And so I 343 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:10,199 Speaker 7: think Wall Street's starting to get the hang of it, right, Okay, 344 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 7: we know this is going to be big pr day. 345 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:14,879 Speaker 7: This is probably making his base happy. He's going to 346 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,280 Speaker 7: call it Independence Day and there's going to be lots 347 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,919 Speaker 7: of fervor around it. But I think one of the 348 00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 7: things that's a tell today in this cabinet meeting is 349 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 7: Howard Lutnix, you know, sort of competing with the tariff 350 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:33,240 Speaker 7: news that he's going to release this external revenue service 351 00:19:33,760 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 7: and the facts that they're even bringing that up indicates 352 00:19:36,520 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 7: that they don't have enough to say on tariffs and 353 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 7: they got to have some kind of structural thing and 354 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 7: that will happen, and based on what Lutinix says, it 355 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,440 Speaker 7: will happen on April second. So my suspicions that may 356 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,000 Speaker 7: lead the news interesting. 357 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 2: But you also need tariffs to feed an external revenue service, right, Geenie, 358 00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 2: So what's going to happen on Liberation Day? And how 359 00:19:58,760 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 2: are you planning to celebrate? 360 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 5: I don't know if I'll be celebrating it. I will 361 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,600 Speaker 5: be monitoring it, you know, I don't think you know, 362 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 5: I do think we're gonna see some action, because you know, 363 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 5: how can you build something up this much and then 364 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,400 Speaker 5: do nothing? But to Rick's point, I think it might 365 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 5: be far less than the rhetoric suggests. And I also 366 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 5: think in the context of Howard Lutnik, you know, this 367 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,719 Speaker 5: is something that we haven't talked a lot about, but 368 00:20:29,320 --> 00:20:32,720 Speaker 5: he really does need to think about what he is 369 00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,119 Speaker 5: saying on the media. You know, Rick was just talking 370 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,639 Speaker 5: about this structural change, but he also goes on the 371 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:43,639 Speaker 5: air and talks about the fact that elderly people who 372 00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,880 Speaker 5: aren't receiving their Social Security check aren't likely to raise 373 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 5: buses unless they're fraudsters. And how does he know this 374 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 5: because his mother in law wouldn't say anything if she 375 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:56,200 Speaker 5: didn't receive her check. I mean, this kind of rhetoric 376 00:20:56,359 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 5: is just built for a democratic campaign. At Howard lutnik 377 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,399 Speaker 5: mother is the mother of a billionaire. Of course she 378 00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,639 Speaker 5: doesn't raise heck when she doesn't get a check from 379 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 5: the Social Security Administration. But you know what the regular 380 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 5: folks among us do, and that doesn't mean they're fronsters. 381 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 5: And oh, by the way, does this mean they're cutting 382 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 5: Social Security for a limited, temporary or long term period? 383 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 5: I mean, so Lutnik has to be very careful, or 384 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 5: Donald Trump, on his behalf, has to be very careful. 385 00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,479 Speaker 5: It's almost like Elon Musk talking about, you know, social 386 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,520 Speaker 5: Security as a Ponzi scheme. These guys don't seem to 387 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 5: realize the political implications of this kind of very very 388 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 5: loose rhetoric that's going on. 389 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 2: There's quite a bit of talking going on in this meeting. 390 00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 2: It's hard to tell if there's a heck of a 391 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,359 Speaker 2: lot of news. Rick, and I wonder if you know, 392 00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,600 Speaker 2: maybe we should be spending a little more attention looking 393 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,680 Speaker 2: at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue as lawmakers get 394 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,440 Speaker 2: back into town and hold some very important meetings by 395 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,520 Speaker 2: the way between House and Senate leadership. The first will 396 00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,639 Speaker 2: take place tomorrow, with of course the goal being a 397 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,400 Speaker 2: mass of reconciliation bill that would extend or make permanent 398 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,880 Speaker 2: the Trump tax cuts, raise the debt ceiling. We've got 399 00:22:05,880 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 2: this at least new range on an X date today 400 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 2: from the Bipartisan Policy Center. Is that something closer to 401 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,119 Speaker 2: what we can actually call news? 402 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 6: It could be. 403 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 7: Uh, there's a long way to go before we really 404 00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 7: know how this reconciliation process is going to sort of 405 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:27,159 Speaker 7: come to light. We've been kicking around all day to 406 00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:31,120 Speaker 7: day different times that we think it could come to vote. 407 00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 7: Lindsey Graham is saying that his bill's going to get done, 408 00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 7: he hopes before the August recess, which means nothing urgent 409 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,239 Speaker 7: is happening in the Senate right now on that, And 410 00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:50,959 Speaker 7: of course, you know the House leadership is saying something 411 00:22:51,000 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 7: even sooner than that. People are still struggling with how 412 00:22:54,440 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 7: to pay for this. Crapo, who chairs committee going through 413 00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:04,199 Speaker 7: this right now, says that you know, he's just going 414 00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 7: to call those tax cuts current policy. And when you 415 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 7: call it current policy means it goes on forever. It 416 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,679 Speaker 7: doesn't have to find new funding when it expires at 417 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,840 Speaker 7: the end of this year, and that's a way to 418 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 7: fill a big five trillion dollar hole. So there's a 419 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 7: lot of talk and not a lot of legislation being 420 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 7: written right now. But the reality is you're right. The 421 00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 7: other half of Pennsylvania Avenue where Congress resides, is going 422 00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 7: to have a significant impact on this first year of 423 00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 7: Donald Trump's administration because Donald Trump has insisted they do 424 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:43,280 Speaker 7: it that way. Now, the question is can they perform woy. 425 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 2: Well, there's a lot there, Genie, and I don't know 426 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 2: to the extent to which we're going to be getting 427 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,920 Speaker 2: news to Rick's point in the near term. On Capitol Hill. 428 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 2: But Democrats don't seem to know what to do here either. 429 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 2: You saw Chuck Schumer doing Sunday morning television refusing calls 430 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 2: to step down. What is the Democratic answer to this process? 431 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 2: Knowing it might take up the rest of the year. 432 00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 5: You know, they don't really have a big voice here. 433 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 5: They're going to have to pick and choose their battles. Yeah, 434 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 5: Chuck Schumer all over on his book tour, at least 435 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 5: on television at this point, and saying he's not going anywhere. 436 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,960 Speaker 5: And of course Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Casio Cortes hitting 437 00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 5: the trail and drawing really really big audiences. So you 438 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 5: see the division. You know, Rick was just talking about 439 00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 5: the division between Republicans and the House. In the Senate, 440 00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:36,119 Speaker 5: you see a division in the Democratic side between again 441 00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 5: the more moderates and the more progressive wing. And at 442 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 5: this point the energy is on the progressive side and 443 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 5: they are pushing for a fight. Chuck Schumer doesn't want 444 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 5: to deliver on a fight, and he doesn't have a 445 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:48,800 Speaker 5: lot of power to but they are really looking for 446 00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,360 Speaker 5: a fight. So I think maybe later in the year, 447 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:55,680 Speaker 5: the Democrats, moderates and progressives will stand together, and they 448 00:24:55,800 --> 00:25:00,520 Speaker 5: will refuse to work with Republicans. And you know, we 449 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:02,200 Speaker 5: don't know whether that's going to be on the debt 450 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:04,960 Speaker 5: ceiling or something else. But there's so much coming up. 451 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 5: But their powers are limited, so they're going to have 452 00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 5: to figure out how do we move forward, and their 453 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 5: real aim has to be of course, twenty twenty six 454 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 5: in the midterms. 455 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:17,960 Speaker 2: Well, I suspect that we're going to be hearing a 456 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 2: bit about this from the President and his cabinet members. 457 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 2: Howard Lutnik, aforementioned Scott Besson also speaking today in a 458 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,359 Speaker 2: conversation that will bring you a little bit later on 459 00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 2: from the cabinet room. The Trump administration asking the Supreme 460 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 2: Court Rick to allow the firing of thousands of probationary 461 00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:38,240 Speaker 2: workers and an effort that was stopped by a lower court. 462 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 2: And we're also seeing another important hearing take place today 463 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:46,959 Speaker 2: in Washington, Rick about whether to allow the deportation of 464 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 2: in this case, Venezuelan detainees who are put on aircraft 465 00:25:51,359 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 2: sent to El Salvador. We talked about this as well. 466 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,639 Speaker 2: Under the Alien Enemies Act, these will result of likely 467 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 2: before reconciliation ever takes place. How important will they be 468 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,160 Speaker 2: to the policy coming out of this administration. 469 00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 7: You know, I think that the latter one has immense 470 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 7: impact on the Trump administration's policy regarding deportations. You know, 471 00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 7: if the Supreme Court rules that they can't use the 472 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:26,679 Speaker 7: Alien Enemies Act as a precursor to deporting people without 473 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:30,040 Speaker 7: due process, then that's going to take a big chunk 474 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,120 Speaker 7: out of his aggressive efforts to put people on planes 475 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 7: and send them, you know, outside the country. And so 476 00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 7: I think this is a bit of a gamble. You know, 477 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 7: in most administrations, you kind of don't want to let 478 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:44,880 Speaker 7: the Supreme Court decide policy for you, so you try 479 00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:49,560 Speaker 7: and stay within a certain level of activity that doesn't 480 00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 7: trigger that, or if it does trigger it, it's just 481 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 7: seen as relatively minor policy disputes, and they tend to 482 00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:02,359 Speaker 7: side with the administration on on administering the laws that 483 00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 7: are governing us. But in this case, I think that 484 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 7: the Supreme Court is going to be setting a lot 485 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 7: of policy for the administration, and I don't think they 486 00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 7: stand a chance of not liking the outcome. So it 487 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:18,000 Speaker 7: falls into the category be careful what you ask for. 488 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:20,639 Speaker 2: So you have it from Rick Davis, GD Shanzano. Our 489 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 2: signature panel. 490 00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:28,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 491 00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 492 00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:35,160 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 493 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 494 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 495 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 4: It's true. Social posts from earlier today on Venezuela threatening 496 00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,840 Speaker 4: a twenty five percent tariff on countries that import Venezuelan 497 00:27:47,960 --> 00:27:51,440 Speaker 4: oil and gas. Of course, those continued tariff threats other 498 00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,240 Speaker 4: subjects we heard the Cabinet discussing, including efforts to trim 499 00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 4: down the federal government tax policy as well, all of 500 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 4: it feeding into the economic outlook. And we get the 501 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 4: view on the economic outlook from the White House now 502 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:06,200 Speaker 4: with the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisor, Stephen Myron, 503 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 4: sitting down here in our Washington, d C. Studio with 504 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,119 Speaker 4: our colleague Bloomberg's Salaiya most in Selia. 505 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 8: Thank you so much, Kayleie. We have Steven Meyern here 506 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,880 Speaker 8: with us. Stephen, you are the one of the top 507 00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 8: economists at the White House right now. Welcome to Bloomberg. 508 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 8: You're serving in this role at a tenuous moment for 509 00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 8: the economy. We saw last week the Federal Reserve officials 510 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 8: there cut economic growth outlook, also citing inflationary risks mostly 511 00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 8: from Trump's trade policy. And I want to know, do 512 00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 8: you think that the Fed has gotten the effects of 513 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 8: tariffs on the economy? 514 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 5: Wrong? 515 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,240 Speaker 9: Thanks Salleiah. It's great to be here, so thanks for 516 00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 9: having me. Look, yeah, I think that folks that a 517 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,640 Speaker 9: lot of folks you know, have got the effects of 518 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 9: tariff's wrong. I think there's there's quite a bit that 519 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,920 Speaker 9: people missbat tariffs. The number one point that I make 520 00:28:55,920 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 9: about tariffs is a general point about economics, which is 521 00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 9: that when you think about any economic policy, a terriff, 522 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 9: a tax, anything else, right, the economists believe that the 523 00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 9: party that bears the burden or the benefit of that 524 00:29:08,720 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 9: policy is the party that's more inflexible. Because if you 525 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 9: are flexible, you can change your behavior to avoid the costs. 526 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,480 Speaker 9: And so think about it this way. If you are 527 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 9: buying a house and the town that you're looking at 528 00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:24,040 Speaker 9: raises property taxes, right, you say, Okay, maybe I'm gonna 529 00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:27,080 Speaker 9: look at the next the house in the next town over, right. 530 00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 9: Whereas so you can adjust your behavior flexible, whereas the 531 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,320 Speaker 9: seller of that house is inflexible. They already own it, 532 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,400 Speaker 9: so they have to drop their selling price. So in 533 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,000 Speaker 9: this example, economists would say, Okay, the seller of the 534 00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:40,040 Speaker 9: house ends up bearing the increase in the property tax. 535 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,320 Speaker 9: And you have to think about tariffs the same way. 536 00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 9: US consumers are flexible. We have options. We can produce 537 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,360 Speaker 9: stuff at home, we have a variety of countries, we 538 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 9: can import stuff, we can substant into home production. Whereas 539 00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 9: countries that sell to the United States are inflexible. 540 00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 6: They've only got the United States to sell to. 541 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:57,080 Speaker 9: There's no alternative, So they're the ones who will bear 542 00:29:57,120 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 9: the burden of this of these tariffs, which means that 543 00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,960 Speaker 9: there's going to be very limited pass through into downside 544 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 9: economic risk or into higher prices. 545 00:30:03,640 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 6: So I think that a lot of folks have got 546 00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 6: that wrong. 547 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 8: But even Trump and his advisors, included in your colleagues, 548 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,400 Speaker 8: Elon Musk, Scott best in, the treasure secretary and others 549 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,160 Speaker 8: are signaling a no pay, no gain concept here that 550 00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 8: for a little while things could get bumpy in the economy. 551 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 9: Yeah, so there are some risks in the economy, but 552 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 9: I think those risks predominantly derived from the transition from 553 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,000 Speaker 9: an economy which was primarily government driven to an economy 554 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:31,160 Speaker 9: that's primarily private sector driven, and that might contribute to 555 00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 9: make to make things bumpier and less robust in the 556 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,440 Speaker 9: short run. And just to give you one number that's 557 00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 9: a great example of that is if you look at 558 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:41,320 Speaker 9: the shares of the share of jobs created in twenty three, 559 00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,040 Speaker 9: twenty twenty three, and twenty twenty four, so the second 560 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:47,320 Speaker 9: half of the Biden administration, when COVID is over, and 561 00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:51,360 Speaker 9: it's really just a result of bidenministration policies, seventy three 562 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 9: percent of all jobs created in those two years were 563 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 9: due to government and government adjacent sectors. By government adjacent, 564 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 9: I mean sectors like education, sectors like healthcare, social assistance. 565 00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,280 Speaker 9: These are sectors of the economy that derive a very 566 00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:07,800 Speaker 9: large or maybe even in some of them, the majority 567 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 9: of their financing ultimately from the taxpayer through direct transfers 568 00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 9: or substies. So three quarters of jobs created in the 569 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 9: last couple of years came from basically, you know, sort 570 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:20,280 Speaker 9: of government expenditures and taxpayer substies. So it is a 571 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 9: brittle economy as we transition away from that to the 572 00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:23,360 Speaker 9: private sector. 573 00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 8: But the FED and you know FED officials are correct, 574 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,840 Speaker 8: then that there will be at least short term pain 575 00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 8: as tariffs kick in. 576 00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:31,959 Speaker 9: So I don't think that there's going to be material 577 00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,720 Speaker 9: short term pain from from the tariffs. I think the 578 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:37,280 Speaker 9: short term pain is coming from the reorientation of the 579 00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,520 Speaker 9: of the economy from the government to the to the 580 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:41,320 Speaker 9: private sector. 581 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 6: Now, of course, you know, as you know, the tariff. 582 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 9: Situation is still developing, and the President will decide what 583 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 9: he wants to. The President will decide what the tariffs 584 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 9: are on April second, and has been very clear telegraphing 585 00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 9: that let's. 586 00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:55,560 Speaker 8: Talk about the tariffs, what's coming down in April second, 587 00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 8: that the President has tasked his advisors and his team 588 00:31:59,280 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 8: with an immense job here to come up with these 589 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,680 Speaker 8: tariffs for next week. What can you share about the 590 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 8: contours of this. Should we expect country by country tariffs, 591 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,520 Speaker 8: sectoral tariffs being announced? 592 00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:10,960 Speaker 6: Sure? 593 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:15,880 Speaker 9: So, Look, you know, it's important to calculate a whole 594 00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,080 Speaker 9: variety of things when you're thinking about non terariff when 595 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:22,560 Speaker 9: you're thinking about about fair and reciprocal tariffs, those include 596 00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,239 Speaker 9: outright tariff rates that have a country's charges, and they 597 00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 9: also include non tariff barriers right ways that countries prevent 598 00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 9: us selling our experts into their markets through means other 599 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 9: than tariffs, through not opening their markets, through intellectual property 600 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 9: theft or or lack of enforcement, through currency changes, through 601 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,400 Speaker 9: regulatory you know, regulatory differences that prohibit our products from 602 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,240 Speaker 9: entering their markets. And you have to consider this entire 603 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 9: host of things, right, and so the dimensions of analysis 604 00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 9: can get really big, really fast. Now that goes at 605 00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 9: odds with another principle, which is that simplicity is great, right, 606 00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,640 Speaker 9: and so the you know, simplicity is a virtue when 607 00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,080 Speaker 9: you think about these things in one in one sense 608 00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 9: because it makes it more difficult for other countries to gain. 609 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,440 Speaker 9: Now the situation is developing, you know, the team and 610 00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 9: the pre and the president are entertaining or entertaining options. 611 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 9: It would be wrong for me to get ahead of that, 612 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:17,200 Speaker 9: but you know, we'll we'll find out soon, Stephen. 613 00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 8: The other thing that a lot of people here at 614 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,120 Speaker 8: Bloomberg have been talking about is this paper that you 615 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,480 Speaker 8: wrote in November, after elections, but before you were nominated 616 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 8: to be CE chair. The title of this paper was 617 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:30,800 Speaker 8: a User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System, and 618 00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 8: it has caused a stir. You talk about some unorthodox 619 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 8: policies like revaluing US gold stocks, applying a user fee 620 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 8: to treasuries, and a new global currency accord. Can you 621 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,880 Speaker 8: tell me how much of this is in the works now? 622 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,280 Speaker 9: Yeah, So I'm glad you brought that up, because this 623 00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 9: paper seems to have taken on a life of its 624 00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 9: own against all my intents. Look, I'm pretty clear in 625 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,680 Speaker 9: that paper that it's a catalog of available options, and 626 00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 9: you know, it's a recipe book, and I'm trying to 627 00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:01,080 Speaker 9: evaluate how useful or not useful or easy difficult those 628 00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 9: various recipes are to make. Some of them are easy, 629 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,160 Speaker 9: some are tough, some are you know, you know, some 630 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,080 Speaker 9: are are are filling satisfying meals, and some will leave 631 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,279 Speaker 9: you hungry again in a half an hour. And my 632 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:14,280 Speaker 9: goal in that paper was to provide an evaluation of options, 633 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:17,400 Speaker 9: that a cost benefit analysis of risks and rewards, so 634 00:34:17,440 --> 00:34:19,360 Speaker 9: that whoever was making a decision, you know, sort of 635 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,160 Speaker 9: could have that available if if if helpful. To be clear, 636 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 9: you know, I'm not the chef, right The President is 637 00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:28,840 Speaker 9: the chef, and he's been very clear, very clear that 638 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 9: he's focused on fair and reciprocal tariffs. Uh, he couldn't 639 00:34:32,040 --> 00:34:37,080 Speaker 9: be clearer, and so anybody who's anybody who's thinking that 640 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,800 Speaker 9: that something that I that I included in a catalog 641 00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:43,880 Speaker 9: in November is the source of is what the policy 642 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:44,440 Speaker 9: agenda is? 643 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 6: Now? You know, I think I think that's wrong. 644 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,800 Speaker 8: So tell me a currency accord, A mar Alago accord. 645 00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:52,880 Speaker 8: Is that currently in the works. 646 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:55,920 Speaker 9: The President's been very clear that he's focused on fair 647 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,560 Speaker 9: and reciprocal tariffs, and you know that's what that's what 648 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:00,880 Speaker 9: that's what the team is working on. 649 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 8: Is it a twenty twenty six goal? Did you a 650 00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:03,320 Speaker 8: currency pact? 651 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 9: I mean, look, I would look at it this way. 652 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,200 Speaker 9: I would look at it as the United States has 653 00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:11,480 Speaker 9: been running very significant trade and current account deficits for 654 00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 9: a very long period of time. Those are very costly 655 00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,400 Speaker 9: to us economically, they're very costly to disproportionately costly to 656 00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:21,239 Speaker 9: some parts of the country that are reliant on manufacturing, 657 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,200 Speaker 9: reliant in exports. And there's a variety of means of 658 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 9: trying to address that problem. Right, the President very clear 659 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 9: that he wants to start with tariffs, and that's what 660 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 9: we're doing. 661 00:35:31,719 --> 00:35:31,879 Speaker 6: Right. 662 00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 9: We are starting with tariffs. We have been moving in tariffs. 663 00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:37,760 Speaker 9: We are going to continue moving on tariffs. April seconds 664 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,439 Speaker 9: is around the corner, and that's the sole focus right now. 665 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,040 Speaker 9: Could it be something that is entertained down the road, 666 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,320 Speaker 9: Sure it could, but right now the president is focused 667 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 9: on tariffs. 668 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 8: In the paper you talk about an overvalued dollar. Is 669 00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:52,800 Speaker 8: that still the case? 670 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,560 Speaker 9: Look, another thing that I think most of the economics 671 00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,719 Speaker 9: profession gets wrong about tariffs is that all of these 672 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:05,080 Speaker 9: models of international trade all assume that trade eventually balances, 673 00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:06,879 Speaker 9: and that if you run a trade deficit, the dollar 674 00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:10,520 Speaker 9: will weaken and that will restore the trade deficit to balance. 675 00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 9: If you run a trade surplus, the dollar will strengthen 676 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:16,400 Speaker 9: and that will restore the trade surplus to balance. And 677 00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:19,319 Speaker 9: so therefore the currency will adjust to balance trade over time, 678 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,200 Speaker 9: and there's no need for tariffs because the economy is 679 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:26,400 Speaker 9: basically self adjusting, self equilibrating, as an economist would say. However, 680 00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,319 Speaker 9: it seems very clear that that's not the case. We've 681 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,920 Speaker 9: been running current account deficits for five decades now, and 682 00:36:31,960 --> 00:36:35,400 Speaker 9: they only get worse in dollar terms and percentage terms lately. 683 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,279 Speaker 9: So you know, I think it's very clear that that 684 00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,399 Speaker 9: standard model of the economy that assumes away the need 685 00:36:41,440 --> 00:36:45,320 Speaker 9: for tariffs is wrong, because we have been running those persistent, 686 00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:49,200 Speaker 9: those persistent current account and trade deficits. If the dollar 687 00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 9: were able to weaken to equilibrate trade, then we wouldn't 688 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,359 Speaker 9: have a lot of the to balance trade deficits. Then 689 00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,800 Speaker 9: we wouldn't have a lot of the problems that tariffs 690 00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:03,160 Speaker 9: and other policies are designed to address, because US experts 691 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:05,360 Speaker 9: would be more competitive on the global stage and we 692 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:06,960 Speaker 9: wouldn't be as cheated by other countries. 693 00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,279 Speaker 8: Trump has talked a lot about maintaining the dollar as 694 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:11,840 Speaker 8: the world's reserve asset, but also there's a desire for 695 00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,600 Speaker 8: a weaker exchange rate. Aren't these dueling forces. 696 00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:18,319 Speaker 9: So there's a variety of means which you can take 697 00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 9: to try to address the problems in demand, which the 698 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,200 Speaker 9: allocation of demand across countries, which leads to the persistent 699 00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:28,480 Speaker 9: trade deficits that we have in the United States and 700 00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:31,280 Speaker 9: that we have had for decades in the United States. 701 00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,719 Speaker 9: There are various means of doing so, right. Some of 702 00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,080 Speaker 9: these means go down different paths right, and some of 703 00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:38,960 Speaker 9: these means would be dollar positive, some of these means 704 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:43,480 Speaker 9: would be dollar negative. And again, the point of the 705 00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,560 Speaker 9: esset that I wrote in November was to evaluate the 706 00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,200 Speaker 9: variety of paths and just because there are many ways 707 00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,080 Speaker 9: to get to an end result doesn't mean you want 708 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:51,080 Speaker 9: to take all the paths at once. 709 00:37:51,120 --> 00:37:52,760 Speaker 6: I mean you can't cut yourself in half. 710 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 8: All right, Well, thank you so much for joining Steve 711 00:37:55,320 --> 00:38:00,000 Speaker 8: Lovely to have you. 712 00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,640 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 713 00:38:05,680 --> 00:38:08,600 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 714 00:38:08,719 --> 00:38:11,319 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 715 00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:15,080 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at 716 00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:16,360 Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.