WEBVTT - What's the ultimatum game?

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<v Speaker 1>Brought to you by the reinvented two thousand twelve camera.

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<v Speaker 1>It's ready. Are you welcome to Stuff you should know

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<v Speaker 1>from House Stuff Works dot Com. Stuff you should know

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<v Speaker 1>is brought to you by Visa. We all have things

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<v Speaker 1>we like to think about. Online fraud shouldn't be one

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<v Speaker 1>of them, because with every purchase, PISA prevents, detects, and

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<v Speaker 1>resolves online fraud safe secure Visa. Hey, and welcome to

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<v Speaker 1>the podcast. Josh Clark, Chuck Bryant. Here. How's it going, Chuck?

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<v Speaker 1>It's going great, Josh. You I'm doing pretty good. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>doing pretty good. I've often wanted, Chuck, if you won

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<v Speaker 1>the lottery, like, who would you share any of your

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<v Speaker 1>proceeds with? I mean, would you? Obviously your wife Emily

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<v Speaker 1>would would reap the benefits of this um, But I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>is there anybody else, like your parents? Would you buy

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<v Speaker 1>him a boat? Or you know who would you share

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<v Speaker 1>it with? In in what amount? Have you ever thought

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<v Speaker 1>about that? Yeah? Yeah, I think everyone kind of thinks

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<v Speaker 1>about this. I don't play the lottery, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think it's a suckers game. But if I

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<v Speaker 1>found a lottery ticket and won a lot of money,

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<v Speaker 1>I would be pretty generous, I thinky okay. I've always

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<v Speaker 1>liked to think the same thing, um to the to

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<v Speaker 1>the to the point where you know, I kind of

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<v Speaker 1>have allotments of like, you know, who would get what

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<v Speaker 1>based on how much I won? Um. The thing is,

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<v Speaker 1>it's all kind of esoteric at this point. Everyone's generous

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<v Speaker 1>in theory. Yeah, and I wonder how much that would

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<v Speaker 1>change with cash in hand. Um. And I was actually

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<v Speaker 1>reading an article about a guy who's in Melbourne who

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<v Speaker 1>this actually happened to. Uh. One of his friends off

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<v Speaker 1>handedly suggested, uh, he buy a lottery ticket, and the

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<v Speaker 1>guy went in, bought it and actually won thirteen million dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>He's got the money in hand and he's still sharing

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<v Speaker 1>it with his buddy who just suggested he buy a ticket.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. So, um, it is nice. But at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time, uh, this guy's actions flying in the face

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<v Speaker 1>of all theories and all sorts of different disciplines evolution, economics, games, Arie.

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<v Speaker 1>Have you heard of this guy named Ariel Rubinstein? I

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<v Speaker 1>have I like all Ariel, do you? Yes? He seems

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<v Speaker 1>like a pretty approachable guy from what I understand that

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<v Speaker 1>he came up with this thing called the ultimatum game

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<v Speaker 1>in the early eighties. I think, yeah, something like that,

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<v Speaker 1>uh and he UM. Let me just give a quick

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<v Speaker 1>rundown of the ultimatum game, okay, okay, So basically, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>some guy comes up to you and I chuck and

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<v Speaker 1>uh hands uh hey, hands you twenty one dollar bills

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<v Speaker 1>and he says yeah. I'd say, chuck, come back, and

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<v Speaker 1>that guy would be like, where what's your friend's name?

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<v Speaker 1>And I'd be all like, I don't know, I don't

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<v Speaker 1>know him. You know, I just met him at number

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<v Speaker 1>sixteen bus shelters. Somebody would get those one dollar bills, right. So, well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say you did stick around. Your curiosity was peaked

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<v Speaker 1>because some stranger came up and gave you twenty one

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<v Speaker 1>dollar bills UM, and he had some instructions that went

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<v Speaker 1>along with it, UM, namely that you had to split

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<v Speaker 1>it with me in any way you saw fit. I

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<v Speaker 1>had the ability need to reject any offer you gave me.

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<v Speaker 1>But if I reject your offer, then neither one of

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<v Speaker 1>us gets squat. He takes the twenty bucks back, right right,

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<v Speaker 1>So I could give you a dollar keep nineteen. You

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<v Speaker 1>could say no, thanks, jerk, and uh, the guy takes

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<v Speaker 1>his money back. Right. But the thing is under under

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<v Speaker 1>this thing called rational maximization, which is an economic theory

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<v Speaker 1>that basically all people are out for the most for themselves.

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<v Speaker 1>You shouldn't even be concerned with the idea that I

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<v Speaker 1>would reject your offer. Number one, you should give me

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<v Speaker 1>one dollar because that's the least amount you have, right um.

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<v Speaker 1>And secondly I should take it. It's found money, and

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<v Speaker 1>that should be that you got nineteen I've got a dollar.

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<v Speaker 1>I may be mad at you, but still I didn't

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<v Speaker 1>do anything for the buck, right, Um, So that makes

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<v Speaker 1>perfect sense in theory. Uh. And Ariel Rubinstein is very

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<v Speaker 1>very well respected game theorists, except for this one. Just magnificent. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>just terrible predictions. Right, This is a blot on his record. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>So these German economists put it to the test, put

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<v Speaker 1>the ultimatum game to the test in real life, and

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<v Speaker 1>they found that they're they're what they What they found

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<v Speaker 1>was that there was no support for Rubinstein's hypothesis whatsoever. Right, people,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they found gave an average of thirty seven

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the money away. And then what I thought

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<v Speaker 1>was really interesting was that half of the people who

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<v Speaker 1>uh received um or less would not accept it. They

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<v Speaker 1>rejected the offer even though it was found money. And

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<v Speaker 1>and in other cases there's there were more generous offers

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<v Speaker 1>than there needed to be. Right. So if they got uh,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say it was twenty deutsch marks, I guess now

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<v Speaker 1>the euro, but back then it was deutch marks, they

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<v Speaker 1>would give them three and they just threw it right

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<v Speaker 1>back in his face exactly. Um, that doesn't make any

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<v Speaker 1>sense again, right, So it was enough to get the

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<v Speaker 1>curiosity of economists and mathematicians and and uh, you know

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<v Speaker 1>all sorts of other people uh peaked right, um. And

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<v Speaker 1>so they started looking into this and they're like, well,

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<v Speaker 1>game theory, it makes sense, but there's there's a flaw

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<v Speaker 1>here there. Let's tweak it a little bit. They tried variations, right,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of the ones that they came up with

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<v Speaker 1>was the Dictator game. Right. I like this one, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>this this one makes a little more sense to me.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet it's still just it doesn't make any sense. Basically,

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<v Speaker 1>under the Dictator game, it's the same thing as the

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<v Speaker 1>Ultimatum game, except uh, they give me twenty bucks to

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<v Speaker 1>share with you. I can either take two dollars and

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<v Speaker 1>give it to you and keep eight team for myself,

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<v Speaker 1>or I can half the twenty dollars with you and

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<v Speaker 1>and and split it equally. Either way, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>accept the offer and I get to keep the money

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<v Speaker 1>no matter what. So there's there's there's no loss for me.

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<v Speaker 1>And yet they found that like seventy six percent of

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<v Speaker 1>the people who played the Dictator game split the twenty

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<v Speaker 1>bucks in half, even though they knew that if if

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<v Speaker 1>they gave the other person two bucks they got they

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<v Speaker 1>kept eighteen. And as far as I know, these people

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<v Speaker 1>are actually keeping the money to make this a very

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<v Speaker 1>real thing, to really gauge people's reactions, and and the

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<v Speaker 1>vast majority of the people were splitting things evenly. This

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<v Speaker 1>is mind boggling, don't you agree it is? But you

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<v Speaker 1>know it was Germany and it's called the Dictator game,

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<v Speaker 1>so that if they made a little bit of afraid

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<v Speaker 1>on what was to convert exactly with their rib turtleneck sweaters.

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<v Speaker 1>And yeah, so um this further piqus people's curiosity. Like

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<v Speaker 1>Rubinstein inadvertently just set off this huge chain reaction that

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<v Speaker 1>people's entire careers have been built on his one prediction

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<v Speaker 1>of the Ultimatum game. Right, Um, so they start they

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<v Speaker 1>start looking into theories about sharing and altruism. And we

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<v Speaker 1>actually did a podcast how altruism works based on an

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<v Speaker 1>article called is there such a thing as a truly

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<v Speaker 1>unselfish act? And altruism shouldn't exist, you know, rational maximization

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<v Speaker 1>should be has it falls in line with evolutionary theory.

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<v Speaker 1>But I mean, so, what is that the human spirit?

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<v Speaker 1>Or is that something we've developed? No one has any idea. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>and and they we don't even know if it's human. Actually, um,

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<v Speaker 1>they've done some studies. They did one on chimps and

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<v Speaker 1>they show zero. Uh, they don't show any sense of fairness.

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<v Speaker 1>They don't mind if they're if they're getting screwed out

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<v Speaker 1>of something, as long as they get something. They don't

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<v Speaker 1>care in what amount or how much someone else is getting.

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<v Speaker 1>But other monkeys have shown a sense of fairness, specifically

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<v Speaker 1>the cappuccine monkey. Yeah, this is a cool study. Did

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<v Speaker 1>you ever see Monkey Shines? Uh? No, you didn't see

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<v Speaker 1>Monkey Shines? Okay, well, wow, it was pretty good. Actually

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<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a horror movie about a out of

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<v Speaker 1>control helper monkey who just goes on the rampage like

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<v Speaker 1>Silent Night, Deadly Night, except with the monkey. That's exactly

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<v Speaker 1>why I didn't see it. No, thank you, it was okay. Um, well,

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<v Speaker 1>basically this is the same kind of monkey, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>very smart and they're off news for helper monkeys. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And these researchers just down the road apiece at Emory

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<v Speaker 1>University ran this experiment on them, and so they would

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<v Speaker 1>put some monkeys together and they'd have them get the

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<v Speaker 1>retrieve a pebble, and in return for bringing the researcher

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<v Speaker 1>a pebble, both monkeys would get cucumbers. Uh. Now, I

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<v Speaker 1>for a while, one monkey would would get a grape

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<v Speaker 1>in return for retrieving a pebble, while the others still

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<v Speaker 1>got cucumbers. So one monkey's kind of like, you know

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<v Speaker 1>what's going on. And then after a while, while one

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<v Speaker 1>monkey still had to retrieve a pebble to even get

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<v Speaker 1>a cucumber, the other monkey was getting grapes for doing nothing.

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<v Speaker 1>And this led to monkeys getting upset, yeah, throwing food,

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<v Speaker 1>refusing to play and really, I mean, like capucine monkeys,

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<v Speaker 1>if you've never seen when you really have to go

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<v Speaker 1>onto h what's the ultimatum game on how stuff works?

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<v Speaker 1>If they're the cutest things on the planet, I can't

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<v Speaker 1>imagine seeing one of these just acting hurt. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>kind of a mean experien a man. It happened just

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<v Speaker 1>down the road. But apparently it let us know that

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<v Speaker 1>humans aren't the only ones with this higher mind sense

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<v Speaker 1>of fairness kind of thing. Ultimately, though, we still have

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<v Speaker 1>no idea what's going on, right. I did think it

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<v Speaker 1>was interesting interesting that um people that participated in the

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<v Speaker 1>in the game, they they found that they looked for

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<v Speaker 1>nonverbal cues from their partner in the game to try

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<v Speaker 1>and pick up what they think they should give. And

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<v Speaker 1>it kind of made me think, you know, any study

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<v Speaker 1>where you know you're being studied I kind of have

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<v Speaker 1>not problems with. But you wonder, you know, if I

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<v Speaker 1>knew that someone was giving me this twenty dollar bill,

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<v Speaker 1>I would give away half of it just so wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean it wouldn't seem like a schmuck, right exactly. It's

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<v Speaker 1>like Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. You know, just by observing something

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<v Speaker 1>you change its behavior. Uh. And I wonder how much

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<v Speaker 1>that factors into this too, And that that nonverbal cue

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<v Speaker 1>study you were talking about it seemed a little hinky

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<v Speaker 1>to me. I wasn't sure how much faith I put

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<v Speaker 1>in it, But I wonder how much of that lack

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<v Speaker 1>of faith is driving just the the idea that that's

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<v Speaker 1>just such a depressing um notion that we're really all

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<v Speaker 1>always in fact out for ourselves and trying to rationally maximize,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're actually doing it through non verbal cues sizing

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<v Speaker 1>up how generous we think the other person will be

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<v Speaker 1>for a big payoff later on. Like you and I

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<v Speaker 1>are walking down the street and I see a twenty

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<v Speaker 1>on the ground. I looked as I pick it up,

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<v Speaker 1>and then I look to see if you saw me

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<v Speaker 1>pick it up pretty much and maybe if I notice

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<v Speaker 1>you saw me, I'll share it with you. If you

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<v Speaker 1>didn't notice, then what twenty? Right? And even if even

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<v Speaker 1>if you just kind of go across the board and

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<v Speaker 1>help everybody equally, just as a general rule, how much

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<v Speaker 1>of that uh is based on a belief in karma,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, karmic deck, karmic payback, that kind of that

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<v Speaker 1>you think that you're going to ultimately receive a rule

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<v Speaker 1>and that's why you do it, which leads us back

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<v Speaker 1>to you know that altruism definitely, which apparently doesn't exist,

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't know, I figure five ten years down

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<v Speaker 1>the road will have the uh the specific you know,

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<v Speaker 1>edit code for altruism or are faking of altruism down? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I do know if someone came and gave us twenty

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<v Speaker 1>one dollar bills and we'd probably head down to the

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<v Speaker 1>dance club and every everything would be fine. We'd probably

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<v Speaker 1>we wouldn't split it evenly. We just go ahead and

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<v Speaker 1>throw it on stage at the same time. Exactly, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>that's yeah, exactly. Well, this is a pretty dense topic.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a really interesting article. I suggest you guys go

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<v Speaker 1>read it What's the Ultimatum Game on how Stuff Works

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<v Speaker 1>dot Com and stick around to find out which article

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<v Speaker 1>has chucked very nervous for next week? So, Chuck, what

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<v Speaker 1>article has you very nervous? Well, Josh, next week, I'm

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<v Speaker 1>going to visit the in laws in Akron, Ohio, and

0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.199
<v Speaker 1>we have plans to go to Cedar Point Suited Point,

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<v Speaker 1>which is the greatest amusement park on the planet. That's

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<v Speaker 1>what I've heard. My wife has been touting it as

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<v Speaker 1>for years. You gotta go on the Millennium Coaster. It

0:11:55.320 --> 0:11:58.120
<v Speaker 1>is the scariest experience you will ever go through. You're

0:11:58.160 --> 0:12:01.679
<v Speaker 1>basically falling four forward as you go down this um,

0:12:01.720 --> 0:12:05.320
<v Speaker 1>I think ninety degree or maybe more than ninety degree hill.

0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.719
<v Speaker 1>It's it's mind bending, lee scary. I can't wait, and

0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:10.959
<v Speaker 1>I love roller coasters, but it does have me a

0:12:10.960 --> 0:12:13.360
<v Speaker 1>little worried. In the article that we have on our website,

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<v Speaker 1>what if I were on a roller coaster and the

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<v Speaker 1>safety harness broke by our our veteran writer Katherine Hear, Yeah,

0:12:19.920 --> 0:12:21.760
<v Speaker 1>I don't know that you should read that before you go.

0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.200
<v Speaker 1>You might want to save that work for after. Good idea. Yeah,

0:12:24.280 --> 0:12:26.599
<v Speaker 1>so you can find out what would happen if the

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:29.160
<v Speaker 1>safety harness broke while you're on a roller coaster on

0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:32.040
<v Speaker 1>how stuff works dot com. But again, like Chuck, I

0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.080
<v Speaker 1>advise you to read it after you get back from

0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.560
<v Speaker 1>the amusement park for more on this and thousands of

0:12:37.600 --> 0:12:41.079
<v Speaker 1>other topics. Is it how stuff works dot com? Let

0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.760
<v Speaker 1>us know what you did. Send an email to podcast

0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:48.679
<v Speaker 1>at how stuff works dot com, brought to you by

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<v Speaker 1>the reinvented two thousand twelve camera. It's ready, are you