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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. If you're listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast, catch Just Live weekdays

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Speaker 1: at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play, and then Freud

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Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Live from Washington, where most of Congress is back today.

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Speaker 2: The Senate doesn't actually get back to business and tell tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: but the House is in session. It is not, however,

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Speaker 2: on the floor of the House that the Speaker, Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 2: is making news. He took to Twitter just a few

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Speaker 2: minutes ago to talk about what we're seeing happening on

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Speaker 2: college campuses in Columbia, which we've discussed on this program,

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Speaker 2: but elsewhere as well, saying we cannot allow the lawlessness

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Speaker 2: we've seen recently on college campuses. Congress will take action

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Speaker 2: to protect Jewish students and hold these pro Hamas protesters accountable.

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Speaker 3: Joe, the idea would be cutting FED funding, which is

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Speaker 3: something that he did float when he was on campus

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Speaker 3: at Columbia. That was less than a week ago, right,

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to remember if he was Wednesday last week,

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Speaker 3: something like that. It's an idea that's come up before.

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Speaker 3: I just wonder if he could potentially string together some

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Speaker 3: sort of alliance of progressive left and conservative right to

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Speaker 3: make that happen in the House. Is he going to

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Speaker 3: cut a deal with Primeila Giapol or is this just messaging?

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Speaker 2: Well, it's an excellent question. And then even if you

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Speaker 2: could form kind of an unusual coalition to get this

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Speaker 2: done in the House, what would happen in the Senate

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Speaker 2: and what would the Presidence.

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Speaker 3: Is another big question. Yeah, I wonder how the panel

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Speaker 3: feels about this. We've talked about these campus protests quite

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Speaker 3: a bit and their political impact with Rick Davis and

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Speaker 3: Jeanie Shanzano, and they are with us now Bloomberg Politics contributors,

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Speaker 3: our signature panel here on Balance of Power. Genie, what's

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Speaker 3: your thought on this when you hear Mike Johnson floating

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Speaker 3: the idea of cutting federal funding for these universities, You,

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Speaker 3: of course work for Iona University and you spend every

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Speaker 3: day working with young people, many of whom are very

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Speaker 3: upset about this. Now we've got a wrecked message coming

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Speaker 3: out of Washington. Will it be any more than that?

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Speaker 4: You know, I think it possibly could be so we

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Speaker 4: have Mike Lawler from New York who has this draft

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Speaker 4: of an anti Semitism bill, if you will. It has

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Speaker 4: bipartisan support. It requires the Department of Education to change

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Speaker 4: broad in its definition of anti semitism and to enforce

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Speaker 4: the rules on the books after that redefinition, if you will.

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Speaker 4: And you know, Lawler has said he thinks it will

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Speaker 4: help decrease the amount of intimidation of Jewish students on campus.

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Speaker 4: And I think that's something that we could very well

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Speaker 4: and should in my mind, see bipartisan support for. So

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Speaker 4: I think we may get some action like that. I

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Speaker 4: think the one thing that we should keep in mind

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Speaker 4: well two things from my perspective. Number One, as much

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Speaker 4: as there is a lot of protests over the weekend

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Speaker 4: and on college campuses, there are a lot of students

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Speaker 4: who are protesting lawfully, and equally, their rights to pro

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Speaker 4: test lawfully need to be protected. And of course, when

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Speaker 4: you protest lawfully, you take the repercussions if you are

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Speaker 4: arrested or thrown off campus, and they need to know

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Speaker 4: that that is what happens as well. So I think

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Speaker 4: there's a way to both support the right to speak

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Speaker 4: and to certainly ensure against anti semitism or any kind

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Speaker 4: of abuse of any student or any person in the country.

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Speaker 2: Well, so, Rick, I guess it just begs the question

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Speaker 2: on how easily this could happen in the United States Congress,

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Speaker 2: where we'd love to talk on this program and others

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Speaker 2: about how little they've been able to get done. Is

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Speaker 2: this an issue where you could actually get enough like

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Speaker 2: minds together to do something, perhaps a little bit more

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Speaker 2: drastic than you might expect.

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Speaker 5: Well, you've seen resolutions pass recently by the House in

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Speaker 5: a bipartisan fashion overwhelmingly condemning the anti semitism that we're

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Speaker 5: seeing on these college campuses. So I don't think there's

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Speaker 5: a lack of support. I think everybody's kind of hoping

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Speaker 5: right now now that with schools getting out that it

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Speaker 5: diminishes the nature of the debate here students go home,

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Speaker 5: or there's less activity or public attention on these campuses,

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Speaker 5: and that somehow this will debate. But the reality is

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Speaker 5: we should have zero tolerance for this kind of behavior,

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Speaker 5: you know, a month ago, today, or anytime in the future.

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Speaker 5: And so my guess is that we're in a period

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Speaker 5: now with Congress where there are just going to be

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Speaker 5: a bunch of messaging bills. Right, other than maybe FAA

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Speaker 5: reauthorization and a couple other relatively minor things that will

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Speaker 5: be very bipartisan, You're going to see the Democrat Party

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Speaker 5: in the Republican Party putting up resolutions and bills that

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Speaker 5: aren't expected to ever make it to the President's desk,

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Speaker 5: but will make a very strong statement. I would anticipate

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Speaker 5: this week getting something like that out of the House

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Speaker 5: of Representatives from the Republican leadership. Frankly, even you know,

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Speaker 5: pressing the Democrats suspect the squad, you know, to take

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Speaker 5: a vote on something that is very pro Jewish, very

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Speaker 5: anti anti Semitism, and we'll see if that plays out politically.

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Speaker 3: Ginnie, as we've noted, Columbia's graduation is set for May fifteenth,

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Speaker 3: We've already seen one major graduation ceremony canceled because of

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Speaker 3: this nationally. If students don't leave at two o'clock that's

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Speaker 3: half an hour away, should they be forcibly removed so

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Speaker 3: the school can get on with its planning for graduation?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, this is.

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Speaker 6: What I'm talking about.

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Speaker 4: One thing we teach students is you should speak your mind,

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Speaker 4: but you need to do so lawfully. You need to

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Speaker 4: do so peacefully. And when we protest peacefully, we have

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Speaker 4: to accept the repercussions, which are if you are in

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Speaker 4: violation of the law, you have to go peacefully with

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Speaker 4: police officers who will.

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Speaker 7: Escort you out.

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Speaker 4: And in this case, the added issue here is that

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Speaker 4: these are students. If they want to finish the semester,

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Speaker 4: which is what Columbia is allowing them to do, if

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Speaker 4: they leave peacefully by two, the threat is if they

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Speaker 4: do not leave peacefully, they may not be able to

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Speaker 4: get their credits for this semester or graduate in the future.

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Speaker 4: That is what you have to accept if you are

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Speaker 4: going to protest, and so yes, I think the university

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Speaker 4: will have to take steps. You simply cannot protest and

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Speaker 4: expect to disrupt everybody else's lives, and so they are

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Speaker 4: going to have to accept whatever those repercussions are. But again,

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Speaker 4: if the police come in, they need to do so peacefully.

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Speaker 4: Keeping in mind, by the way, that all of these

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Speaker 4: protesters are not students. There are many outside agitators and

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Speaker 4: that has complicated this as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a very good point. Genian point will taken

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Speaker 2: as well on the fact that some actions have consequences,

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Speaker 2: whether or not you are prepared to meet them. Speaking

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Speaker 2: of consequences for actions, Rick, as Congress comes back this week,

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Speaker 2: we all are still kind of dealing with the question

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Speaker 2: as to whether or not Mike Johnson is going to

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Speaker 2: face a real motion to vacate as consequence for passing

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Speaker 2: aid for Ukraine and other US allies. Before the break,

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Speaker 2: Are we about to find out that Marjorie Taylor Green

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Speaker 2: was just bluffing?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I think sometimes you're gonna get called on the

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Speaker 5: sky is falling strategy, and maybe that's the case. The

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Speaker 5: reality I think that she has come to conclude is

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Speaker 5: that even if she pulls the trigger on the motion

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Speaker 5: of vacate, there're gonna be enough votes to keep him

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Speaker 5: from getting thrown out, and probably likely with the help

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Speaker 5: of the Democrats, the motion wouldn't even go to its maturity.

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Speaker 3: It would just be tabled.

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Speaker 5: So nothing looks weaker than pulling a trigger on something

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Speaker 5: like this and then nothing happens. That kind of takes

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Speaker 5: away her ability to ever try this again. I'm sure

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Speaker 5: she understands that the one thing she knows is how

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Speaker 5: to get attention. If she wants attention in the future,

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Speaker 5: she can't diminish herself too much, although there's a new

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Speaker 5: level for that every day in the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 3: But the reality is there's no.

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Speaker 5: Consequence to her anymore, at least not until after November,

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Speaker 5: and so regardless of what she does, Johnson's going to

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Speaker 5: be speaker for the Balance.

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Speaker 3: It's Marjorie Monday, Jeanie. I don't know what timeline we're

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Speaker 3: looking at here, but the last thing she said was

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Speaker 3: his days as speaker are numbered? Is she talking about

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Speaker 3: to Rick's point at the end of this Congress.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I wouldn't pretend to know what Marjorie Taylor Green

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Speaker 4: is talking about. You know, it was interesting to hear

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Speaker 4: Joe Biden raise her name as well in the context

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Speaker 4: of his jokes at the White House Correspondence dinner, So

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Speaker 4: you know, she's gotten her fair share of attention. But

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Speaker 4: I think the real fact is is that this is

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Speaker 4: going to be all up to Hakem Jeffries if she

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Speaker 4: does pull the trigger. And I do think Democrats we

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Speaker 4: heard from Jared Moskowitz, for instance, over the weekend saying

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Speaker 4: Democrats obviously will follow uh Hakeen Jeffries, but they are

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Speaker 4: inclined not to allow her to do this. I think

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Speaker 4: Jared Moskowitz said, we wouldn't even let her name a

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Speaker 4: post office, let alone remove a speaker. You know what

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Speaker 4: that happens to him after that? If he's saved by Democrats,

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Speaker 4: I don't know what that means for him going forward

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Speaker 4: in his own caucus. But I think all eyes on

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Speaker 4: Haqem Jeffries. If she does pull the trigger on this.

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Speaker 2: Well, a lot of it comes down to Donald Trump too, right,

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Speaker 2: who hasn't, outright, I guess, said absolutely no to the

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Speaker 2: idea of vacating the speaker, but has come to my

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Speaker 2: Johnson's defense not once but twice. Is it ultimately the

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Speaker 2: former president that is going to make the call for her? Genie, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think so.

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Speaker 7: I mean, Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 4: Have you ever seen somebody hug anybody as close as

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Speaker 4: Mike Johnson is hugging on to Donald Trump right now.

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Speaker 4: He knows that the closer he gets to Trump, the

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Speaker 4: least less likely she's going to pull the trigger or

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Speaker 4: he'll get kicked out. So that is the strategy. She's

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Speaker 4: probably trying to draw a wedge between them. It's going

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Speaker 4: to be crazy to watch in the next couple of weeks,

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Speaker 4: as Congresses and session for four weeks. Theoretically, if they

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Speaker 4: stay that long.

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Speaker 2: It's like a lot of work for them, four weeks

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Speaker 2: in a row.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that can change, by the way, Let's see if

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Speaker 3: they really make.

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Speaker 2: It to four weeks, all right, Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Politics contributors, of course, our signature political panel, kicking

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Speaker 2: things off on this Monday. It is a question, though, Joe,

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Speaker 2: of even if they stay all four weeks, how much

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Speaker 2: gets done in a four week Perer.

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Speaker 3: Well, that's true, and I will note this moment in

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Speaker 3: which we just went through a whole conversation about the

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Speaker 3: rest of the congressional agenda and stable coin never came up.

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Speaker 3: That's fair point something to note.

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Speaker 2: Yes, that effort is probably still ongoing. It's just a

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Speaker 2: question of whether it can get across the finish line

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Speaker 2: and through what vehicle if it's not the FAA reauthorization.

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Speaker 2: So that's a story we'll continue to keep on top of.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays in Eastern on Applecarplay and then ron

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Speaker 2: Kicking off the week, and of course Joe. That puts

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Speaker 2: us just about an hour from the deadline. For students

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Speaker 2: at Columbia University who have been in this encampment. Of

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Speaker 2: course pro Palestinian protesters, some of them perhaps outright anti Israel.

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Speaker 2: Colombia putting out a note to students in that encampment

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Speaker 2: today saying please promptly gather your belongings, leave the encampment.

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Speaker 2: If you voluntarily leave by two pm and sign a

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Speaker 2: provided forum where you commit to abide by all university

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Speaker 2: policies through June of next year, twenty twenty five, you

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Speaker 2: will be eligible to complete the semester in good standing.

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Speaker 3: This could be a dicey moment here. We've seen evictions

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Speaker 3: of these encampments fall into violence more than once. They're

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Speaker 3: certainly recovering from that in Austin and in Boston. The

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Speaker 3: Speaker of the House was standing on that campus. It's

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Speaker 3: just days ago, Kaylee. This has really become the center

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Speaker 3: of this at least campus angle on this story, and

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Speaker 3: it's one that's very divisive. We spoke earlier with our

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Speaker 3: White House correspondent Josh Wingrove. The White House Correspondent's dinner

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Speaker 3: actually was the site of a pretty large pro Palestinian protest,

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Speaker 3: shouting at people as they went inside the party. They're

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Speaker 3: trying to get as much coverage as they can with

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Speaker 3: enormous pressure domestically here on Joe Biden. And that's where

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Speaker 3: we start our conversation, Kaylee, with Hagar Shomali. The idea

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Speaker 3: of a potential truce here, a breakthrough and a deal

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Speaker 3: on hostages would be enormous for this administration and of

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Speaker 3: course all the parties involved. Hagar is a former National

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Speaker 3: Security Council where she specialized in Syria and Lebanon, now

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Speaker 3: at Greenwich Media Strategies, where she has founder har Gar,

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Speaker 3: It's great to see you. Are we on the verge

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Speaker 3: of a breakthrough?

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Speaker 8: Well, it seems very close, and it seems have been

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Speaker 8: very tenuous, and you've got pressure kind of building on

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Speaker 8: both sides, and it looks hopeful. You have Secretary Blinking

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Speaker 8: in Saudi Arabia today where he has been working with

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Speaker 8: them and has made the call on Hamas from there

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Speaker 8: to accept this proposal, which he called quote extraordinarily generous

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Speaker 8: coming from the Israelis and UH.

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Speaker 6: And that's something that's very significant because these.

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Speaker 8: Talks have been going on for a while and the

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Speaker 8: fact is that they keep getting these proposals get narrower

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Speaker 8: and narrower.

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Speaker 6: And right now the latest proposal from what we.

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Speaker 8: Know, is that it would include a lower number of

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Speaker 8: hostages exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, and it would also allow Palestinians,

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Speaker 8: gaz and civilians to return to their homes in northern

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Speaker 8: Gaza and UH and so hopefully, hopefully it'll get it'll

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Speaker 8: get somewhere. Hamas for the last few proposals has been

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Speaker 8: the sticking point, and it feels as though, you know,

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Speaker 8: and Secretary of Lincoln has made a point of saying

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Speaker 8: that he he reiterated that today that it's on Hamas.

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Speaker 8: Hamas is the one blocking Gassy's fire. But I do

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Speaker 8: have more hope for this one.

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Speaker 2: Well, of course, there's always risk of disruption, Hagar and

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg is reporting today that you the US and its

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Speaker 2: allies are concerned that the International Criminal Court could soon

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Speaker 2: issue arrest warrants for a number of Israeli officials, reportedly,

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Speaker 2: according to other outlets, could include prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,

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Speaker 2: and the concern is that this would be something that

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Speaker 2: really jeopardizes any kind of ceasefire deal. Just how problematic

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Speaker 2: would that be And is the ICC, in your mind,

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Speaker 2: likely to put off something like that in the name

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Speaker 2: of reaching an agreement.

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Speaker 8: You know, when I saw that news, it surprised me,

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Speaker 8: mainly because of its timing. Typically these types of issues

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Speaker 8: happen they take much longer. So for example, when I

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Speaker 8: handled Syria, it took the ICC much longer to issue

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Speaker 8: an arrest warrant and to put President Usad, who is

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Speaker 8: a butcher and murderous dictator, to put them on their list.

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Speaker 8: Then it has the Israeli officials I have heard. I

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Speaker 8: did see that the news would include both Israeli government

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Speaker 8: officials and hamas leaders. And that's also important because you

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Speaker 8: obviously have hamas leaders and Cutter right now. I believe

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Speaker 8: in Turkey as well, and so it would include both.

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Speaker 8: But it's very significant you're talking about. It's almost like

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Speaker 8: a well, an international restaurant means that to wherever they

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Speaker 8: travel outside of their own country, they're going to get arrested,

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Speaker 8: and sometimes within the country if there is, for example,

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Speaker 8: an uprising against Nathan Yahoo. Then they could also arrest

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Speaker 8: him domestically. It just kind of depends how goes. Israel's

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Speaker 8: not a party to the ICC, so they probably wouldn't

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Speaker 8: arrest him domestic, but they would recognize it.

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Speaker 6: But you never know how the future holds.

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Speaker 8: But that said, the timing also, these are serious, the arrestaurants.

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Speaker 6: It sounds a little bit like a game, but it's not.

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Speaker 8: These are very serious things and could definitely play out negatively.

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Speaker 8: But I believe that the Israel government at this time

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Speaker 8: is so focused on what's happening with the ceasefire talks

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Speaker 8: and in Gaza itself that they're probably not paying much

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Speaker 8: attention to it. They're hoping that the US is able

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Speaker 8: to push the icy seats.

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Speaker 6: Into lay well.

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Speaker 3: The talks are supposed to begin Tuesday in Cairo here

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Speaker 3: and as the US urges Hamas to accept a deal, hgard.

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Speaker 3: We don't even know if Hamas is going to be there.

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Speaker 3: They haven't responded to questions about Israel's offer or whether

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Speaker 3: it will send a delegation. So I guess we're going

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Speaker 3: to learn imminently here. If this is possible, we can't

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Speaker 3: obviously move forward without Hamas, can.

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Speaker 8: We no, not really, No, you can't move forward without them.

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Speaker 8: But that said, Israel is holding in its hand a

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Speaker 8: very large stick, and that stick is going into Rafa.

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Speaker 8: And they and they've made it very clear that they're

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Speaker 8: they're they're not going to hold back no matter what

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Speaker 8: the US or other international partners say about their desire

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Speaker 8: to go into Rafa and to target the Hamas battalions

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Speaker 8: and and and sales and leaders who they believe are

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Speaker 8: still there. They've already pursued air strikes against Rafa. They

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Speaker 8: haven't pursued yet this ground invasion. And we know from

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Speaker 8: satellite imagery that they that we've seen new tents erected

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Speaker 8: to the north of Rafa. So it's believed that those

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Speaker 8: tents are part of the Israeli plan to evacuate over

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Speaker 8: one million people who are in Rafa. But that said,

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Speaker 8: that is a very big threat and very credible threat

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Speaker 8: that Israel holds, and that you can see them using

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Speaker 8: that that they're not afraid to go win and the

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Speaker 8: ceasefire deal is the only thing keeping them from pursuing

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Speaker 8: that operation.

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Speaker 2: Well, we know that's part of the message that Anthony Blinkn,

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Speaker 2: the Secretary of State, is bringing to the region trying

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Speaker 2: to persuade Israel against an eminent invasion of Rafa, given

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Speaker 2: how many hundreds of thousands, if not over a million,

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Speaker 2: Palestinians could be caught up in that. Can we just

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Speaker 2: talk about his role though, as a mediator in all

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Speaker 2: of these varying different areas with the Israeli government and IDF,

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Speaker 2: with the other parties involved in these negotiations. He's been

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Speaker 2: to the Middle East seven times in less than seven months, Hagar,

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Speaker 2: and what does he really have to show for it?

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Speaker 6: It's stunning.

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Speaker 8: Well, you know, I handled the Middle East, as you know,

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Speaker 8: and I can tell you one of the common frustrations

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Speaker 8: is that you can travel a thousand times and you

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Speaker 8: churn your wheels. You can create policy after policy, and

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Speaker 8: it can be very difficult to have any movement and

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Speaker 8: break any ground. I personally wish that I wish to

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Speaker 8: see from the US government louder calls for the release of.

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Speaker 6: All I mean law of all hostages. But we have

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Speaker 6: to remember there are apparently about.

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Speaker 8: Five US nationals as well taken hostage in Gaza right now,

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Speaker 8: and one of whom was on the videos that were

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Speaker 8: released by Hamas last week, and those videos came out

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Speaker 8: only because Cutter pressured Hamas to release them, to give

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Speaker 8: some kind of proof of life for individuals. And so

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Speaker 8: the thing is my answer to that is really that

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Speaker 8: that's just kind of how it goes. And to be fair,

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Speaker 8: it would be similar whether it's in Russia or China.

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Speaker 8: Those negotiations with sides that are either adversary in this

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Speaker 8: case you've got a terrorist organization which is even worse,

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Speaker 8: are always going to be extremely difficult and tenuous. And also,

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Speaker 8: by the way, with the Israeli government also, the conversations

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Speaker 8: are always difficult and and you keep seeing these they

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Speaker 8: take inches forward, they say, they make these steps forward,

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Speaker 8: but they're unable.

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Speaker 6: To seal these deals.

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Speaker 8: But the whole point is to try and get to

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Speaker 8: to get to some negotiation.

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Speaker 6: All wars end in a negotiation and showing.

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Speaker 8: That kind of effort is something that they have to

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Speaker 8: do because they have to try for it, even if

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Speaker 8: it's far fetched. But I do think that this time

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Speaker 8: they are nearing something.

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Speaker 3: Realgar We have to ask you again about what's happening

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Speaker 3: at Columbia University, something Kaylee was mentioning a bit earlier

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Speaker 3: this hour, and we'll remind our listeners and viewers that

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Speaker 3: you are a professor at Columbia School of International and

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Speaker 3: Public Affairs. Two pm is the new deadline that authorities

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Speaker 3: have provided students to break up their encampment and leave

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Speaker 3: the central lawn so they can start preparing for graduation

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Speaker 3: ceremonies in the middle of May. There are a lot

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Speaker 3: of things I'd like to ask you about all this,

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Speaker 3: including what you're hearing might happen today at two o'clock.

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Speaker 3: But to what extent is this You're at the microcosm

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Speaker 3: here of this argument on the campus of Columbia University,

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Speaker 3: the extent to which it's impacting national public opinion.

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Speaker 8: Yes, so it's what we're seeing is quite stunning, actually,

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Speaker 8: and I really don't think anybody, any one of us,

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Speaker 8: could have expected things.

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Speaker 6: To go the way they did, with the protests.

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Speaker 8: At Columbia inspiring these other protests across the country, some

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Speaker 8: of which have been very loud and have faced really

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Speaker 8: some you know, brutal crackdowns if you will, I don't

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Speaker 8: know if that's the right word, but where you're seeing

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Speaker 8: the police arrest and those arrests are not going very peacefully,

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Speaker 8: if if I could, I think that's the most accurate

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Speaker 8: way I could say, and so what you have now.

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Speaker 8: So on one hand, the way it's inspired these protests

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Speaker 8: across the country came after Columbia invited the New York

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Speaker 8: Police Department on campus to arrest the students there, and

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Speaker 8: it ended up causing a backlash on campus that also

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Speaker 8: inspired movements across the country.

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Speaker 6: And I don't think it's going to end anytime soon.

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Speaker 6: And this is the thing a lot of I think a.

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Speaker 8: Lot of folks hope that that professors are hoping, okay,

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Speaker 8: but the summer is coming and then students are going

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Speaker 8: to go home. But the administration seems to believe and

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Speaker 8: expects that these protests are going to continue until the

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Speaker 8: election at least, and.

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Speaker 6: That they're going to use the election and the political

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Speaker 6: de banter and focus to highlight this issue even more.

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Speaker 6: They're going to feel quite strongly about that.

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Speaker 8: Now, if you're going to have a ceasefire now, or

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Speaker 8: even if it delays and it's in a month or so,

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Speaker 8: that is going to ease tensions.

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Speaker 6: A little bit.

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Speaker 8: But the fact is that these these protests have devolved

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Speaker 8: into numerous demands. They are not just demanding divestment or

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Speaker 8: for a ceasefire or against aid to Israel. They're demanding

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Speaker 8: things like you know, for at Columbia at least, they're

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Speaker 8: demanding that they get rid of the exchange program we

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Speaker 8: have with the University of Tel Aviv. They're demanding even

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Speaker 8: included demands related to Harlem residence there. The devestment has

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Speaker 8: to do with not it's not in Israeli companies, it's

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Speaker 8: you're talking in American companies that work in Israel, for example,

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Speaker 8: Google and Blacky Martin and.

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Speaker 6: Things like that.

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Speaker 8: These just not very realistic demands and and so you're

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Speaker 8: just they've reached this standoff and impass. They've reached an

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Speaker 8: impasse is the right word. And I expect at two pm.

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Speaker 8: I do expect students, some students to accept to stay

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Speaker 8: and knowing that they might get arrested or that the

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Speaker 8: security might take them off. They will be suspended if

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Speaker 8: they stay past two pm. And the university was clear

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Speaker 8: that they've been able to identify who they are that's

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Speaker 8: not difficult, and that they will be suspended. And if

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Speaker 8: they're suspended, then they've been then they're trespassing on the campus,

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Speaker 8: and so they will be removed somehow.

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Speaker 6: But I expect it to get very tense.

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Speaker 9: All right.

437
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 2: Hagarshamali is an adjunct professor at Columbia University, also the

438
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 2: founder and CEO of Greenwich Media Strategies and formerly of

439
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 2: the National Security Council. Thank you so much for joining us.

440
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,679
Speaker 2: No shortage, Joe of Intensity and Drama in Upper Manhattan.

441
00:22:56,320 --> 00:23:00,160
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. It's

442
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,520
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Otto

443
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,679
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

444
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

445
00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power. I'm

446
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 3: Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube.

447
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 3: It's great to see you and have everyone back together

448
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: as we try to follow the bead here on what

449
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,959
Speaker 3: might happen, if anything next in Congress. And there's a

450
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 3: fair chance that the store is basically closed after the

451
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,199
Speaker 3: funding bills for Ukraine and Israel past just about a

452
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:39,760
Speaker 3: week ago. Here it's Marjorie Monday in Washington. Everybody wondering

453
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 3: about the Motion to vacate, whether it's even still alive

454
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 3: because Marjorie Taylor Green's language has changed a lot. Remember

455
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 3: she threatened to fire Mike Johnson. It only takes one

456
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,159
Speaker 3: in the House to get this motion to vacate on

457
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 3: the floor if he brought Ukraine funding to the floor. Well,

458
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 3: now it's law, the money's already going out, the weapons

459
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,240
Speaker 3: are on the way, and well there's still no privileged

460
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 3: resolution yet to make this happen. And her language has

461
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:06,879
Speaker 3: changed quite a bit. Remember a week ago she was

462
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 3: vowing to bring this to the floor if the Speaker

463
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 3: did not resign. He called her bluff, and we're still waiting.

464
00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 3: It's the matter of an FAA extension that needs to

465
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 3: be handled, a reauthorization of the FAA, and it could

466
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: become a big old Christmas tree. This could be the

467
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 3: last train leaving the station, assuming they get that done.

468
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 3: And Jonathan Tamari joins us now from Bloomberg Government to

469
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 3: pick up the pieces from there. It's great to see you, Jonathan.

470
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 3: We're going to start dealing with the FAA, I presume eminently.

471
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 3: Is the Speaker going to get fired this week?

472
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 6: That's the big question.

473
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 10: And we're waiting to hear what lawmakers say when they

474
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 10: come back to vote this evening. You know, we as

475
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 10: you mentioned, Marjorie Taylor Green had talked about that she

476
00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 10: was going to bring this motion, that the vote on

477
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 10: floor and aid was crossing.

478
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 7: A line for her.

479
00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 10: But really things have been pretty quiet in the day since,

480
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 10: in the week since, as you know, you know, people

481
00:25:03,080 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 10: leave town kind of tempers can settle very often, the

482
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 10: heat of the moment can dissipate, and so we've not

483
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 10: seen anybody else publicly join in her call to get

484
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 10: rid of Speaker Mike Johnson. There's a lot of Republicans,

485
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 10: even those who don't like him, who don't want to

486
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 10: go back through the whole tumult that they already went

487
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 10: through of trying to replace a speaker. And so there's

488
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,160
Speaker 10: no sign yet of growing momentum. But I think we'll

489
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 10: be checking with lawmakers as they show back up tonight

490
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:32,920
Speaker 10: to see if anybody has anything new to say when

491
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 10: they return.

492
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:39,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, she filed the motion to vacate thirty eight days ago,

493
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,720
Speaker 3: which is pretty interesting to see. Nothing yet. So let's

494
00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 3: talk about actual business if we can for a moment, Jonathan.

495
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 3: We've got two weeks here to reauthorize the FAA, and

496
00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 3: it looks like we've got some deal making underway. There

497
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 3: is reporting on the way this reauthorization may look, and

498
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,679
Speaker 3: it may not come with what some people expected in

499
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 3: the form of a stable coin bill or a Safe

500
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 3: Banking Act. What are you hearing?

501
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean the there was a release last night

502
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 10: from the relevant chairs in both both houses, the Senate

503
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 10: and the House, and both parties, so all four got

504
00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,040
Speaker 10: together and they released an FAA reauthorization bill that they

505
00:26:20,080 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 10: say is a compromise that they've all agreed on. So

506
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 10: that signals that it could be on you know, the

507
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 10: not upon here a glide path towards getting done in

508
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 10: the coming weeks. The Senate has a procedural vote already

509
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 10: tied up for Wednesday, and so we'll see how different

510
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 10: lawmakers react to the compromises here. But when you've got

511
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 10: the top the chairs and the top ranking members in

512
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 10: both parties in both houses on board with something, it

513
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,720
Speaker 10: signals that it's probably going to get done. And this

514
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 10: carries a lot less of the kind of political weight

515
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 10: and political divides some of the things that we've been

516
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 10: dealing with in Congress recently, like four and eight or

517
00:26:55,880 --> 00:27:00,439
Speaker 10: the FIZA spying bill, or debt ceiling your budget. You know,

518
00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 10: this is something that's pretty much a straight policy issue,

519
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 10: and I would imagine that it does get done, and

520
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 10: as you point out, it could be the last really

521
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,879
Speaker 10: big thing that Congress gets done. So we'll see if

522
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 10: people try to pile on other elements into this bill

523
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,920
Speaker 10: to kind of get one last bite at the apple.

524
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, yeah, that's just in our last minute, Jonathan.

525
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 3: What's the conversation about amendments going to look like, because

526
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 3: this could be carrying a whole lot by the time

527
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 3: it's passed.

528
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 10: If it does pass, Yeah, I think you're going to

529
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 10: see a lot of rank and file members wanting to

530
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 10: get amendments on this things that they've been working on

531
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 10: throughout this Congress, knowing that by the time they leave

532
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,199
Speaker 10: for their summer break, there's not going to be a

533
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 10: whole lot of legislating done for the rest of the year,

534
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 10: and there's the uncertainty of who's going to win the

535
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 10: White House and that might delay any further action. So

536
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 10: I think you're going to see people wanting to put

537
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 10: their pet projects onto this bill. And of course the

538
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 10: issue for leaders is always that the more you do that,

539
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 10: the more you risk adding something that is objectionable to

540
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,600
Speaker 10: one faction or the other, and that could actually stop

541
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 10: the bill in its tracks. So it's a careful balancing

542
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:08,400
Speaker 10: act as always that I think we'll see play out

543
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 10: over these next few weeks.

544
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, this thought'll be fun to watch. Jonathan Samari, great

545
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,360
Speaker 3: to see you. Say hi to everybody as they're rolling

546
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,439
Speaker 3: back in Bloomberg. Government Congress reporter with us live on

547
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,000
Speaker 3: Balance of Power. As we add the voice now of

548
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 3: Maya McGuinness, I can only imagine what Maya has been

549
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 3: thinking in these final throws here of getting something passed

550
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 3: after the Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan passed the House and Senate. She's,

551
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 3: of course the president for a Committee for a Responsible

552
00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,400
Speaker 3: Federal Budget, Maya. It's great to see you. Surely a

553
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 3: balanced budget amendment will be added to this FAA.

554
00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 11: Bill, right, Yeah, and any new things that they tack on,

555
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 11: they'll definitely pay for it, because they've been demonstrating with

556
00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 11: such fiscal responsibility.

557
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 3: Well we're being cute here, of course, but what do

558
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: you think about this? Just before we move on to

559
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 3: what's next, we just passed a ninety five billion dollar

560
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 3: for an aid bill. It was originally an emergency request.

561
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 3: I know a slice of that Ukraine money is alone,

562
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:09,960
Speaker 3: should it be offset.

563
00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 11: You know, emergency spending, one doesn't generally feel like you

564
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 11: have to offset it because it's truly for emergencies. That said,

565
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 11: the fiscal environment in which we are right now means

566
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,800
Speaker 11: that anything that adds to the debt, no matter what

567
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 11: the purpose, it could be very important, it could be

568
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 11: a real emergency, but debt is debt, and that still

569
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 11: puts upward pressure on inflation, on an interest rates, it

570
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 11: compromises our national security integrity. So there are a lot

571
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 11: of reasons that no matter how important something is, it

572
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 11: would still be preferable to offset the costs. There was

573
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 11: some interest in the House. Jody Arrington, the chairman of

574
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 11: the Budget Committee, had talked about some very smart healthcare

575
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 11: reforms that we could have used to offset the costs,

576
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,719
Speaker 11: but there was no real that didn't get any real momentum.

577
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 11: I think if you take a step back, the point

578
00:29:58,160 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 11: is in order to do a urgency spending or foreign

579
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 11: aid when it's necessary, you have to be fiscally secure.

580
00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 11: We need to get our fiscal situation in better shape.

581
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 11: So even if it's not a direct offset, we should

582
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 11: turn our attention to bringing the national debt down. You've

583
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 11: heard me say it before, and I'm sure having to.

584
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 3: Say it, well, gush, they have all summer to work

585
00:30:18,080 --> 00:30:20,160
Speaker 3: on it. Just imagine what we could get done if

586
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 3: we actually were serious about that. Maya, are you worried

587
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 3: about this FAA bill being loaded up with expensive Christmas ornaments?

588
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 7: I am worried about it.

589
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:31,880
Speaker 11: I actually don't think that will ultimately be what happens.

590
00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 11: I think there'll be many people who make runs at

591
00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 11: attaching their bills the things they prefer. But listen, everybody

592
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 11: in the House has an election that they want to

593
00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 11: get back home and start focusing on. It's a very

594
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 11: difficult tight rope to walk to get certain things attached

595
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 11: or not. So I think there's a risk of a

596
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 11: Christmas tree, but I think the most likely outcome is

597
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 11: that it passes without anything major being.

598
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:52,800
Speaker 6: Attached to it.

599
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 3: Wow, that's sands something is that just because everyone's exhausted

600
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 3: of the division in Congress?

601
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 11: Right the patchwork of getting things that would be attached

602
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 11: that enough people could agree to would be very complicated.

603
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 11: Even if someone supported some of the amendments, they might

604
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 11: be resentful they didn't get their own amendments. And because

605
00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:16,320
Speaker 11: there is not a commitment to which things should be attached.

606
00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 11: Like there's division on the tax bill, which is the

607
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 11: kind of thing that you could think of as being attached.

608
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:23,320
Speaker 7: There's division on a lot of the different policies.

609
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 11: So I don't see it falling into place in an

610
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 11: elegant enough way that leadership is able to craft a

611
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 11: bigger package.

612
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 7: Could happen, definitely, people will give a try.

613
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 3: Well, I'm glad you mentioned the tax bill, because this

614
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 3: must be a head scratcher to you. They were practically

615
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 3: celebrating its passage a couple of months ago. This was

616
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 3: said to be look, we can get along and get

617
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 3: things done. It moved pretty quickly. The chairs of the

618
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 3: two related tax committees in the House and Senate came

619
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 3: to terms, and then it got bogged down in the Senate.

620
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 3: With a lot of different concerns about this. Some people

621
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: wanted to make changes that essentially brought the bill to

622
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 3: a halt. Is there any chance now that even though

623
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 3: we're past April fifteenth, this tax deal, a multi billion

624
00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: dollar tax deal that had bipartisan support, could actually see

625
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 3: the light of day.

626
00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:17,520
Speaker 7: There is a chance.

627
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,959
Speaker 11: I mean, this has been a really interesting and complicated

628
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,560
Speaker 11: process from our perspective, non partisan worrying about fiscal issues.

629
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 11: It's even been complex to make sense of it because

630
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 11: it is a deal that puts together a lot of

631
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,959
Speaker 11: different taxes, the child tax credit, the business taxes, and

632
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 11: what I don't think is smart about it is that

633
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 11: they're temporary, and when you do temporary tax policy, you

634
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 11: know you're setting yourself up for a cliff.

635
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:40,440
Speaker 7: You're not looking at the full costs.

636
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 6: On the other.

637
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 11: Hand, they did put forth offsets for this, and that's

638
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 11: it's a very important precedent, which is, if something is

639
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 11: worth doing, it's worth finding a way to offset the

640
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:53,400
Speaker 11: cost rather than borrowing for And I thought that they

641
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 11: worked very hard to come up with that. I thought

642
00:32:55,280 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 11: there was a lot of bipartisan agreement that they should

643
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:59,959
Speaker 11: offset the cost, and they came up with and approach

644
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 11: do that, So it was a policy that I.

645
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 7: Thought made sense.

646
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 11: Listen, I think the thing we should be focusing on

647
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 11: more than anything right now is fiscal overall, getting our

648
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 11: fiscal house under control before you're adding tax cuts or

649
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:16,040
Speaker 11: spending increases. But at least things that are offset are important.

650
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 11: But there is a lot of resistance. My again, I

651
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 11: think where everything's headed is, oh my gosh, we can't

652
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 11: get anything else done in twenty twenty four, Let's push

653
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 11: it to twenty twenty five, when all of these tax

654
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 11: cuts are going to be firing.

655
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 7: There's going to be so much work to do. Let's

656
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 7: just throw it into the big soup.

657
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,760
Speaker 3: Well, the lobbying money is coming in on extending the

658
00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: twenty seventeen tax cuts, the lobbying and the organization. We

659
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 3: actually talked to Cavin Brady, of course, a former Ways

660
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 3: and Means A chair, about his new efforts coming back

661
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 3: into the fold here in Washington. This is going to

662
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 3: be a big part of the conversation, Maya. What's your

663
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:52,920
Speaker 3: thought on this? What would happen if those tax cuts

664
00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 3: were made permanent?

665
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 11: Well, yeah, twenty twenty five, let me just say it

666
00:33:57,600 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 11: is going to be a huge year because those tax

667
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 11: cuts are expiring, and we're going to have a debt

668
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 11: sealing situation to deal with again. So there's going to

669
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 11: be a lot of moving pieces and very important pieces.

670
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 11: The cost of extending the tax cut is phenomenally large.

671
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 11: You're talking about well over three trillion dollars at a time,

672
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:19,240
Speaker 11: whereas you know, the debt's near record levels, interest payments

673
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,479
Speaker 11: are soaring. We can ill afford to have trillions more

674
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,720
Speaker 11: added to the debt. Offsetting the cost is certainly something

675
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 11: that can be done. We should be focusing on real

676
00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:31,360
Speaker 11: tax reform, not tax cuts. And there's a lot of

677
00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:33,480
Speaker 11: base broadeners in the tax code that you can go

678
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 11: through and.

679
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,479
Speaker 7: Limit, expand some.

680
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 11: Of the offsets that we're used before, a lot of

681
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 11: things that would bring the costs down. But that's exactly

682
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 11: what those lobbying groups are lobbying against. Everybody wants to

683
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,720
Speaker 11: preserve their favorite hole in the tax code that benefits

684
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 11: their constituencies. So this will be as difficult as tax

685
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,600
Speaker 11: reform originally was in terms of making sure that it

686
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 11: doesn't add to the debt. And you have a very

687
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 11: very strange Bedfellow situation here where most Republicans would like

688
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 11: to extend those tax cuts, though significant amount would like

689
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 11: to pay for part of them, and the President, of

690
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 11: course has said he won't like taxes be cut for

691
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:15,240
Speaker 11: anybody below four hundred thousand dollars. So that's a lot

692
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 11: of tax cuts that people are supporting without talking about

693
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 11: how they.

694
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 6: Do the costs.

695
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 11: And again, everybody in their budget says we're going to

696
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 11: pay for it, Nobody says.

697
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 3: How yeah, the proposal will be paid for, right, but

698
00:35:29,040 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 3: then maybe reality will kick in here. This is really

699
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 3: interesting as we spend time with Maya McGuinness considering that

700
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:44,280
Speaker 3: effort in twenty five and whether anything can actually happen now.

701
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 3: The billionaire's tax is supported by according to our polling, Maya,

702
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 3: I say, the billionaire's tax, the concept of a billionaire's tax,

703
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 3: as President Biden is proposing, is supported by Democratic and

704
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 3: Republican voters by vast margins. This includes Donald Trump supporters,

705
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 3: the same people who would probably celebrate extending the twenty

706
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 3: seventeen tax cuts. And I'm not sure I understand the

707
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 3: rationale there, But could a billionaires tax help offset some

708
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 3: of the rest of this if it happens.

709
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 11: Yes, I think that those are the proposals that you're

710
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:18,240
Speaker 11: going to hear much more about.

711
00:36:18,320 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 7: And you're exactly right.

712
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 11: From both sides, it's no longer a Republican or a

713
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 11: Democratic issue because populism and kind of the populist approach

714
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 11: to taxes is something that has gained traction in both sides,

715
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 11: and there is a real resentment about the huge levels

716
00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 11: of income inequality as billionaires.

717
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 7: Continue to get more and more billions.

718
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 11: I think that the popularity of these tax increases on

719
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 11: the very wealthy are going to grow, and I think

720
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:44,200
Speaker 11: one of the questions will be as they start trying

721
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 11: to figure out, how do you actually structure these so

722
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 11: that they're constitutional, so that they're workable, so you don't

723
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 11: have people who are leaving the country hiding their assets.

724
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 11: There's all sorts of ways to avoid them, but I

725
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,239
Speaker 11: think that you will see biparers and support for all

726
00:36:57,280 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 11: sorts of different approaches to middle class tax cuts and

727
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 11: higher taxes on the wealthy.

728
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 7: It's no longer the domain of just Democrats.

729
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:08,480
Speaker 3: As you pointed out, that's really interesting, an interesting time

730
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 3: that we're in. I don't always quite understand the way

731
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 3: they come out on the wash Here maya I've got

732
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 3: less than a minute left when we talk about the

733
00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:17,919
Speaker 3: tax deal on the table. You and I talked about

734
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 3: this for a couple of moments. Does the Committee support

735
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 3: this current framework now the exchange for a wider child

736
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 3: tax credit in exchange for lower corporate taxes in some cases,

737
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 3: does it work for you?

738
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 6: Well, it's interesting.

739
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:34,880
Speaker 11: I mean, our take is generally policy neutral. There are

740
00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,080
Speaker 11: many policies that could make sense, but we're not going

741
00:37:38,120 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 11: to say this is the right wrong policy. We're going

742
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 11: to say, does it add to the debt. It's okay

743
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:44,960
Speaker 11: to borrow when there's things like COVID or emergencies, it's

744
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 11: certainly not okay to borrow now. So something that either

745
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 11: reduces the debt, which is our first choice, or doesn't

746
00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 11: add to it, then we would say that's fiscally responsible,

747
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 11: and then we can fight out the details of the

748
00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 11: tax policy.

749
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 7: But do we need to continue to reform our tax code.

750
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 7: We do.

751
00:37:58,080 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 11: We need it to be pro growth, and we need

752
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 11: it to be so those are all important considerations, along

753
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 11: with let's not add more to.

754
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:08,440
Speaker 3: The debt, crystallizing the philosophy at the Committee for a

755
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,720
Speaker 3: Responsible Federal Budget. We don't always get to talk about

756
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 3: that part of things. She's the President. Maya mcgainn. It's

757
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 3: great to see you. I hope you had a fun weekend.

758
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

759
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroyd

760
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: Oro with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

761
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

762
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

763
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 3: Welcome to the Monday edition of Ballance of Power on

764
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Court is not in session in

765
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 3: Lower Manhattan today, Kayley and the Donald Trump hush money case.

766
00:38:46,239 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 3: He'll be back there tomorrow. He was a big topic

767
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:51,600
Speaker 3: of conversation at the White House Correspondence dinner, and as

768
00:38:51,600 --> 00:38:54,480
Speaker 3: you might suspect, as he has been historically, the butt

769
00:38:54,520 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 3: of many jokes that.

770
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: Night, Yeah, including jokes from Colin jos who was the

771
00:38:58,120 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 2: comedian of the evening, talking about how nice it was

772
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,799
Speaker 2: to see the President of the United States in an

773
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,720
Speaker 2: event which didn't begin with a bailiff saying all rise,

774
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 2: basically suggesting that Donald Trump is spending a lot of

775
00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 2: days in the courtroom today not today, and he won't Wednesdays.

776
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 2: Wednesday is the day off of this trial, but Tuesday,

777
00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 2: Thursday and Friday, and Thursday, of course is the gag order.

778
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 2: Here is the second one where the judge will hear

779
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:24,720
Speaker 2: arguments as to whether or not Trump is in violation

780
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: of that gag order that is supposed to prohibit him

781
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 2: from doing things like disparaging witnesses, and the prosecution says

782
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 2: he's been.

783
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 3: Doing a lot of that well, that's right. The reporting

784
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:37,480
Speaker 3: from inside the courtroom has actually been quite lively on

785
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:40,400
Speaker 3: the daily basis a lot of questions about the essence

786
00:39:40,440 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 3: of this trial, Kayley. Of course, with the four potential

787
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 3: trials that this president former president could endure here, this

788
00:39:46,920 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 3: was always seen as the weakest by a lot of

789
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,239
Speaker 3: the folks we talked to. I think Nick Ackerman might

790
00:39:52,280 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 3: be an exception there who really cites the strength of

791
00:39:56,080 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 3: this case. But defining it has been a real problem

792
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 3: for a lot of people. Is it actually that Alvin

793
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 3: Bragg is bringing Donald Trump into court for Is this

794
00:40:04,520 --> 00:40:10,480
Speaker 3: a manipulation of documents case, a falsifying documents case, or

795
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,280
Speaker 3: is it an election interference case? Or is it actually both?

796
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 2: I think they're trying to make the argument that it's

797
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 2: actually both. Yes, he falsified business records, facing thirty four

798
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,719
Speaker 2: counts of that, but it's a felony because it was

799
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 2: done so with the intent to violate election. Yes, is

800
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 2: our understanding, But of course Jim Zsiren probably has a

801
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 2: better understanding than we do because he is a legal professional,

802
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: former Assistant United States Attorney for the Southern District of

803
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 2: New York. Jim, it's always great to have you here

804
00:40:35,400 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 2: on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Joe

805
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 2: brings up an interesting point because a lot of the

806
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: questioning of witnesses that we saw last week included David

807
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: Pecker was around whether or not this really was intended

808
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 2: to help Trump politically. So far, do you think the

809
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 2: prosecution is having success making that case?

810
00:40:54,640 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 9: Well, I think Pecker was a very damaging witness against Trump.

811
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 9: He professor to be a friend of his to this day,

812
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 9: and Trump may conclude, with friends like that.

813
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 12: Who needs enemies? Because Pecker really set the table.

814
00:41:11,080 --> 00:41:14,560
Speaker 9: He put flesh on the bones of the whole case

815
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 9: of how from the time Trump first announced for the presidency,

816
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 9: the National Inquirer was publishing damaging information about his political

817
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 9: rivals and also trying to take polls that weren't necessarily accurate,

818
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 9: which showed that Trump would be a viable candidate as

819
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:38,840
Speaker 9: later he turned out to be.

820
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 3: How difficult will it be for Alvin Bragg or are

821
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 3: you already seeing the path here to make this an

822
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,720
Speaker 3: election interference case?

823
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 9: At the same time, Well, I'm not convinced that calling

824
00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:00,880
Speaker 9: an election interference case is the greatest way forward.

825
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:02,719
Speaker 12: It is an election.

826
00:42:02,640 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 9: Interference case, and there are political legal scholars in my respect,

827
00:42:09,719 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 9: like Norm Eisen who first brought it out, and who

828
00:42:15,080 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 9: stress it's the twenty sixteen preview to what happened in

829
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 9: twenty twenty making fraudulent statements in order to seize power.

830
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:29,400
Speaker 12: So there is a parallel there.

831
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,040
Speaker 9: But I'm not so sure the jury is willing to

832
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 9: buy that because it plays into Trump's claim.

833
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:42,399
Speaker 12: That this is all a political prosecution. There is the

834
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 12: other side of the coin. This is really a.

835
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 9: Business integrity case. It's a simple case. It's a case

836
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:56,080
Speaker 9: of falsifying business records with the intent to commit a crime,

837
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 9: the crime being either election in a fiperence or tax fraud,

838
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 9: or both the federal and state election interference. Now that

839
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:14,319
Speaker 9: in mind, there really isn't that much to it. You

840
00:43:14,400 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 9: have thirty four obviously false documents business records of the

841
00:43:20,239 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 9: Trump organization, which are the mute witnesses that really put

842
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 9: Trump in the soup. He falsified those documents, He knew

843
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 9: about those documents, seven of the nine checks he personally signed.

844
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 9: There is testimony of Michael Cohen, whose credibility they will challenge.

845
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 9: But Cohen's testimony is going to be corroborated. First corroborated

846
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 9: by Pecker. It'll be corroborated by other witnesses as the

847
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,800
Speaker 9: prosecution moves along. So I don't think it's that difficult

848
00:43:53,840 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 9: a case if Bragg plays his hand deftly sizes that

849
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 9: it's a white collar crime case. My old boss in

850
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 9: the US Attorney's Office, Bob Morgenshaw, the legendary prosecutor, used

851
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:12,320
Speaker 9: to say, you can't prosecute the streets unless you prosecute

852
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 9: the suites and sees.

853
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:20,400
Speaker 12: And meeting the business suites. And he didn't.

854
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:26,360
Speaker 9: Other prosecutors have, and that makes this case not that unusual,

855
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 9: and not a selective prosecution where they've singled out Trump,

856
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:36,239
Speaker 9: but rather a prosecution that's a garden variety case involving

857
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:37,840
Speaker 9: business integrity.

858
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, except this one just happens to involve a former

859
00:44:41,480 --> 00:44:44,439
Speaker 2: president and current presumptive Republican nominee. But I do take

860
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:48,000
Speaker 2: your point, Jim. Of course, there's something else in regard

861
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 2: to this case. In addition to witness testimony that we're

862
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 2: waiting for this week, on Thursday, we will have a

863
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 2: second hearing of arguments related to whether or not Trump

864
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,560
Speaker 2: has violated the gag order, he is under even more

865
00:44:59,719 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: count of this, according to the prosecution, have come up

866
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 2: since the last time Judge Marshawn heard these arguments. But

867
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:09,120
Speaker 2: what can he actually do here? What consequence does this

868
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 2: ultimately have if he is found to have violated it

869
00:45:11,880 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 2: and gets what a thousand dollars fine for each thing?

870
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,600
Speaker 2: That's not really a big number for a billionaire.

871
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 12: Well let me get to that for a moment.

872
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 9: But I want to answer you because he is the

873
00:45:25,719 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 9: former president of the United States, and never before in

874
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 9: history has a former president of the United States been

875
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 9: charged with felonies. But the law is not supposed to

876
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 9: be about who the defendant is. The law is supposed

877
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:43,520
Speaker 9: to be about what the defendant does, and that's what

878
00:45:43,560 --> 00:45:44,760
Speaker 9: this case is all about.

879
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 12: Now. As to the gag order hearings, I.

880
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:50,800
Speaker 9: Don't believe that the judge is going to clap Trump

881
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 9: and irons and put him in jail for a day,

882
00:45:55,680 --> 00:46:00,000
Speaker 9: for an hour, or for a year for violating a gagorer.

883
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 12: I think he'll be very tough.

884
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:06,279
Speaker 9: On Trump and say the next time it happens, it's

885
00:46:06,360 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 9: going to be very difficult for you. But I think

886
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:13,320
Speaker 9: he will find them. He doesn't have to limit himself

887
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 9: to a fine. He can put him in jail for

888
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 9: contempt of court, even if the DA hasn't asked for that.

889
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 9: But the DA has been very moderate. He's asked to

890
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 9: find him. There's really the issue of delay, because if

891
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 9: he puts him in jail for any significant period of time,

892
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:37,520
Speaker 9: it's going to delay the trial. And that's the last

893
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 9: thing the judge wants. That's the last thing the prosecutor wants.

894
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 9: Undoubtedly Trump will appeal, and undoubtedly by the time the

895
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 9: appeal has heard, they'll say Trump has served enough time,

896
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 9: let's go on.

897
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 12: With the trial.

898
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 9: But it may delay the trial for thirty to sixty days,

899
00:46:55,760 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 9: which nobody wants. So I think that they're probably will

900
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 9: be a fine imposed and there probably will be a

901
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 9: very stern Dutch uncle talk from the judge that what

902
00:47:11,239 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 9: he's done violated the order. What he's done in terms

903
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:22,359
Speaker 9: of attacking witnesses and families of prosecutors is intolerable and

904
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 9: violates the order, and next time he does it, the

905
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 9: judge is going to be very hard on it.

906
00:47:28,360 --> 00:47:30,160
Speaker 3: Jim, we're out of time, just very quickly, just to

907
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:32,799
Speaker 3: make sure that our listeners and viewers understand, and I'm

908
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 3: asking you legitimately if you or I were in that position,

909
00:47:35,880 --> 00:47:38,080
Speaker 3: if we had violated the gag order to that extent,

910
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:39,839
Speaker 3: what would happen to us?

911
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 12: I think we'd go to jail, no question about it.

912
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 12: And so then the Trump.

913
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:49,399
Speaker 3: Obviously then the law does not apply equally. Already we've

914
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 3: established that.

915
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,040
Speaker 9: I think we've seen, as we saw in the immunity

916
00:47:54,160 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 9: argument in the Supreme Court, Trump has gotten a deference

917
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 9: from the courts unlike anyone else in a country where

918
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:05,399
Speaker 9: no man is supposed to be above the law.

919
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 7: Yeah, all right.

920
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,160
Speaker 2: Jim Ziron, former Assistant US Attorney for the Southern District

921
00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 2: of New York. Always great to have you on the

922
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 2: program sir, Thank you so much.

923
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

924
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

925
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

926
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at

927
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com.