1 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast which brings the 2 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: global economy to you. Now you've probably heard a few 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: things about Brazil's new president, Jaa Bosonaro, and he's a 4 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: controversial right wing populist who once said he could never 5 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: love a gay son. He's also a big fan of 6 00:00:25,200 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's. They swapped football jerseys when Bosonaro came to 7 00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,319 Speaker 1: the White House in March. But I'd be interested to 8 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: know whether they talked about economics on that visit, because 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: when it comes to trade and the economy, the Brazilian 10 00:00:37,159 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: president couldn't be more different. And Bosonaro admits he's no expert, 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,599 Speaker 1: but he's handed the task of turning around Brazil's anemic 12 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: economy to Paolo Gidis, an alumnus of the free market 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: University of Chicago. Now, Chicago style reforms were all the 14 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: rage after the so called Chicago Boys helped transform Chile's 15 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: economy in the seventies and eighties, but they've fallen out 16 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: of favor in the last few years with all the 17 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 1: questioning of neoliberal economic policies we've seen in the wake 18 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 1: of the global financial crisis. Looking at Brazil, thinking about 19 00:01:12,400 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: it's decades of boom and bust. A bit of shock 20 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: treatment doesn't sound such a crazy idea. I'll ask Larry's 21 00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:21,959 Speaker 1: Summers what he thinks of getting his plans in a 22 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:26,039 Speaker 1: few minutes. But first, Brazil economy reporter Bruce Douglas has 23 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:46,280 Speaker 1: been taking a closer look. There's an awful lot of 24 00:01:46,319 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: coffee in Brazil, as Frank Sinatra once noted, and beef 25 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,480 Speaker 1: and soybeans and all other kinds of agricultural goods and 26 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: petrochemical products. But decades of protectionism and a massive internal 27 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: market boosted by membership of South America's Customers Union, has 28 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:06,440 Speaker 1: resulted in a remarkably closed economy. Foreign trade accounts for 29 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: a measly twent of Brazil's GDP compared with the global 30 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: average of But as the country's new government came to power, 31 00:02:15,240 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: promising to change all that, I went to Santos, Brazil's 32 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:25,840 Speaker 1: gateway to the world, to find out how song sign 33 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: of Disco for perfect card. I'm perched on a yellow 34 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: boat that's floating in the port of Santos, just in 35 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: front of a huge black ship which is being loaded 36 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: with sugar. Around ten of the world sugar passes through 37 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 1: this port. Santos is just forty miles from the city 38 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,519 Speaker 1: of South Paolo and lies on the front line of 39 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: Brazil's efforts to open its economy to the world. It's 40 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: the largest port in South America and Santos handles around 41 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 1: one third the brazils foreign trade, including much of the 42 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: world's coffee, orange, juice and sugar. Okay, to please, can 43 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: you tell me your name and your title and where 44 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:21,600 Speaker 1: we are. My name is Sally Regina Sosa. I'm a 45 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: journalist of CODESPI, the part authority of Port of Santos. 46 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: So SELLI tell me a little bit about the port 47 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: of Santos. Santally, the part of Santos has around for 48 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 1: tin kilometers of kids, enough for fifty five ships. Today. 49 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: We handle all kinds of cargo, paper, sells, soybeans, sugar, wheat, 50 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:58,000 Speaker 1: chemical products, petrolum derivatives and alcohol. Good to float in 51 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: and art of Santos for almost five hundred years. It's 52 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: the gateway to greater Selparlo, the most industrialized region in 53 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: the Southern Hemisphere and the biggest consumer market in Latin America. 54 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:19,440 Speaker 1: The largest continued terminal of South America is in Brazil, 55 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: with intelligence and logistics and efficient CTPS the biggest privately 56 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: owned terminal in the port. After showing me its corporate 57 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:32,640 Speaker 1: video in Italian Nomura, BTPs commercial manager gave me a tour. 58 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: So basically where you're standing right now uses to be 59 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: a garage repository where all the trash would be, uh say, 60 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: dispatched from the portal centers, and it was two years 61 00:04:48,920 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: of remediation built on the side of a former trash dump. 62 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: The BTP terminal now boasts eight state of the art 63 00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: cranes that were loading containers onto two massive ships. As 64 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:03,400 Speaker 1: we start talk coffee, meat and this is going to 65 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: the US, probably with lots of construction material. How does 66 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: the performance in Brazil's economy as a whole impact the 67 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 1: number of containers that passed through her? Oh, there is 68 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: a direct impact. So basically, if the country is importing more, 69 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,719 Speaker 1: as it was the case of last year, we get 70 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: a higher volume of imports, whereas now the exports are 71 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: a little bit still picking up our volume containing volume 72 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 1: exports are slower as well. Predictions for this year's growth 73 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 1: through a little bit better than last year, So you're 74 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 1: hoping that whole mean more containers will pass through this 75 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 1: laar We are expecting bigger volumes this year, and of 76 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,159 Speaker 1: course the exchange rate or the political situation also have 77 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: an impact on the volume. So we're expecting all the 78 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 1: best for Brazil this year. All the economy is picking up, 79 00:05:54,240 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: hopefully our volumes are picking up as well. Since Brazil's 80 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: economy dropped off a cliff between two thousand and fourteen 81 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: and two thousand sixteen, the country has barely returned to growth. 82 00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 1: Boosting foreign trade would obviously help its recovery, and here 83 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: there's massive room for improvement in any typicult operation. If 84 00:06:27,680 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: you have a hundred spaces, you want to sell a 85 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: hundred spaces. Antonio Dominos is the managing director on the 86 00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: East Coast of Latin America for the Shipping and Logistics 87 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: conglomerate MASK. If Brasili you only sell a hundred, you 88 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: will be seen sixty or fifty, So half half of 89 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 1: your cargo will not show up at the port. Why 90 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 1: why won't the cargo show up? Because the costin will 91 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: tell us. You know, I was unable to find a drucker. 92 00:06:56,560 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: I couldn't get all the documentation on dying. It was 93 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 1: a stock on inspections. So the carol will not arrive 94 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 1: to the port. So here in Brazil, we have been 95 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: forced to overbook every single vetter, sometimes as much as 96 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,440 Speaker 1: to be able to sail at so that creates a 97 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:20,960 Speaker 1: lot of challenges for US. Mass distinctive white containers feature 98 00:07:21,000 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 1: prominently around the port of Santos, one of the seventeen 99 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 1: ports the company uses in Brazil. Despite its strong presence 100 00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: in the country, Mr Domingez points out the Brazil remains 101 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:33,880 Speaker 1: a challenging place to do business, and while he welcomes 102 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,239 Speaker 1: the new government's talk of privatization and free trade, state 103 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: dominance and protectionism and not the only issues Polo Gages 104 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: will have to address. We love Brazil, we see brestil 105 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: as a land of opportunities, but there's also a country 106 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: that needs to understand that infrastructure is key for development. 107 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: And it's not only about building new ports. It's about 108 00:07:56,560 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: making sure that you connect the port with the with 109 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:02,640 Speaker 1: the with the consumer centers where the population is. So 110 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: you need railways, you need roads, You need infrastructure at 111 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 1: the beginning at the end to make sure that they 112 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: are able to to move that cargo. And it's not 113 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 1: just about improving the infrastructures. Will have to look at 114 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: the tariff. They are very high tariffs here in these 115 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: county two imports. The customs systems, it will have to 116 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:25,640 Speaker 1: be revampant. You have to be easier to be able 117 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,960 Speaker 1: to bring cargo into the country. The taxes in the 118 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:32,280 Speaker 1: country are highly unpredictable. You know, it can vary a 119 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: lot from one come way to the next, and and 120 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: they're not many good ideas why they are varying. So 121 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 1: the legal systems think is overburned in this country. You know, 122 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: you have a lot of hurdles that you need to 123 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: to actually look through, so that that also needs to 124 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: be simplified. All in all, the procedures to set up 125 00:08:51,720 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: a company needs to be easier. The sprawling megalopolis of 126 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: Sal Paulo is the engine room of Brazil's economy. If 127 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 1: Latin America's largest nation is to start motoring again, here 128 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 1: is where it will start. Tomasato is the head director 129 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: of Trade and Foreign Affairs ATSP, the Federation of Industry 130 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,840 Speaker 1: of the State of sal Paolo, Opening of Brazilian The 131 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:27,400 Speaker 1: government was voted into office with this promise, so it's 132 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: something that Brazilians vote for, so it has a mandate 133 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: to do this. One thing is saying what you want 134 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: to do the other things saying how we are going 135 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: to get there right now? What the I would say 136 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: that the biggest single problem that Brazil has is unemployment, 137 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: So opening the economy without doing the other reforms means 138 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 1: more unemployment. Around twelve percent of the country's workforce is 139 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 1: still out of a job, and Mr Zanato fears that 140 00:09:57,440 --> 00:10:01,239 Speaker 1: lowering trade tariffs without simplifying the tax system and liberalizing 141 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:05,680 Speaker 1: the labor market could make matters worse among investors, unless 142 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:09,319 Speaker 1: and economists. There's also a consensus that the first priority 143 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 1: of the new government needs to be an overhaul of 144 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:15,800 Speaker 1: Brazil's massively overstretched pension system. It's a little bit like 145 00:10:15,840 --> 00:10:19,000 Speaker 1: the Titanic. I mean, you're going against the iceberg and 146 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:23,240 Speaker 1: the pension reforms. Is that movement at the at the 147 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 1: helm that shows that we are not hitting the iceberg anymore? 148 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 1: With imminent disaster averted, the administration can then concentrate on 149 00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 1: opening the economy. But ensuring that such a move as 150 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 1: a success will it requires skillful coordination between all the 151 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: branches of government. Opening the economy depends only of one ministry. 152 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 1: Um having a better business environment depends on other ministries 153 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: and the rest of the government and also on Congress. 154 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 1: So so one thing is a given. They are there's 155 00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:00,640 Speaker 1: something we have to fight, I understand. And when you 156 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,920 Speaker 1: when you pay attention what Ministry public is says, I mean, 157 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 1: it makes a lot of sense. Okay, And and this 158 00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: is why you have this kind of bullish environmental expectations. 159 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: But you know, any professor in the strategy on a 160 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 1: business school tell you that good strategies ten percent elaboration 161 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: and implementations. Brazil ever attempted to liberalize before, uh it did. 162 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: It did something like that in eighty nineteen. It was 163 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,440 Speaker 1: a disaster because it's just opened the economy withoubt and 164 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,959 Speaker 1: was not able to to to push through the other reform, 165 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: so so we had hyper inflation on employment. Was such 166 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: a disaster that the last twenty eight years nobody talked 167 00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 1: about this. With a massive internnel market, bull has long 168 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 1: since the whole reason to open its economy to the world. 169 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:05,320 Speaker 1: With the country well on the way to another lost decade, 170 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 1: there's a feeling that this time it may be worth 171 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 1: the risk. What are the potential dangers or pitfalls of 172 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: a more liberal Brazil. Look what's sappining outside of Brazil. 173 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: I don't know if you're British or not, but seeing Brexit, 174 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:29,959 Speaker 1: seeing Donald Trump, and they are the result of the 175 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: end of the day mainly Limon Brother crisis and very 176 00:12:33,880 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 1: liberal economy. So so we have, I mean, you have 177 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,520 Speaker 1: very good examples of the pitfalls that you can have 178 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 1: in a very liberal economy. Now that's said, Brazil is 179 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:56,319 Speaker 1: getting out of almost seventy years of state driven economy 180 00:12:56,440 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: and he got us what he got, So we need 181 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:04,040 Speaker 1: we need owl Maybe a neo liberal Old style or 182 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:08,080 Speaker 1: Chicago school for some time makes some sense for Brazil. 183 00:13:09,080 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 1: There's really no precedent for the rapid liberalization of an 184 00:13:12,120 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: economy the size of Brazil's South Korea in the nineties sixties, 185 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: or Chiles a decade or so later. Off a few 186 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: clues as to Watson Store for Latin America's largest nation. 187 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:27,119 Speaker 1: But with Brazil still struggling to recover from years of recession, corruption, 188 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: and political conflict, this new government argues that it has 189 00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 1: no choice but to find out that was Priuce Douglas. 190 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,880 Speaker 1: Now you might remember I spoke to Larry Summers last week, 191 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,440 Speaker 1: the Harvard economist and former Treasury secretary and adviser to 192 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: President Obama. I took the opportunity to ask him about 193 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 1: what was going on in Brazil and also about the 194 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: radical left wing prescriptions for the economy recently coming out 195 00:13:55,800 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: of the US. Without getting into the details, Larry, I'm 196 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,199 Speaker 1: sort of interested. You had so many years when you 197 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:15,040 Speaker 1: were chief economist at the World Bank, and then were 198 00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: you at Treasury and helping Mexico with its debt crisis. 199 00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: How should we think about this kind of quite old style, 200 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 1: if you like, pro market recipe coming to Brazil at 201 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: a time when sort of that that kind of model 202 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: of market policy is being so questioned elsewhere in the world, 203 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 1: and you know, not least in the US. Not an 204 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 1: expert on the Brazilian situation, but it seems to me 205 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 1: that a large part of credit has been allocated by 206 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: government in Brazil, with vast misallocation of capital, very substantial corruption. 207 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: Levels of real interest rates that for most of the 208 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: last decade were six percent or more, are real interest 209 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: rates that are unlike anything we saw in the United 210 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: States because of the very large government role in credit markets. 211 00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: I think the instinct to clean that up is probably 212 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: the right instinct. I think the instinct to have pensions 213 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 1: that are not unreasonably generous relative to people's final incomes, 214 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: to be in line with the rest of the world 215 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,280 Speaker 1: in terms of the scale of your pensions relative to 216 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:35,920 Speaker 1: the scale of your economy, that feels like a reasonable 217 00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: urge to pursue in Brazil. So I think that broadly, Um, 218 00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: you can't judge which way an economy should move without 219 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 1: knowing where it is. And Brazil, after eight years of 220 00:15:56,000 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: really quite extreme twelve years of quite ex dream quite 221 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: leftist government, really had become very much a state controlled 222 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 1: economy with a state that was not really highly competent 223 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:24,680 Speaker 1: or able to act with complete integrity. And so I 224 00:16:24,720 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: think the direction of reform that the Balston Arro administration 225 00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 1: wants to move in is broadly correct. And as I 226 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: say that as someone who is very much aware of 227 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: the similarities between Boston Arro and Donald Trump on many 228 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: different dimensions and certainly doesn't hold a brief for either, 229 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 1: I mean, what is interesting is that you have to 230 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: the two of the most important economies in Latin America 231 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: have now got new presidents who have represent a completely 232 00:16:56,440 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: different approaches. In Mexico, somewhere that has had years of 233 00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,399 Speaker 1: reform and is in a very different place in terms 234 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: of the degree of liberalization and its economy. I mean, 235 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:09,879 Speaker 1: I guess can you can you sympathize there with the 236 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: idea that there's a government student that now wants to 237 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 1: have more focus on what you might call the left behind. 238 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: I can sympathize with the desire to focus on the 239 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:27,240 Speaker 1: left behind. And I think that income distribution oligarchy have 240 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:32,480 Speaker 1: been real issues in Mexico for a long time. I'm 241 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 1: not sure I can sympathize quite as well with the 242 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 1: idea of keeping the private sector out of sectors like 243 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: whale and telecommunications. I'm not sure I can sympathize quite 244 00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: as much with the more cavalier approach that sometimes seems 245 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,399 Speaker 1: to be taken to in Mexico on issues relating to 246 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: property rights or enforcement of contracts. But I ain't the 247 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: emphasis on investing in people, on education and kids, I 248 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,119 Speaker 1: think it's all quite appropriate. I had one more thing 249 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you about. We've had several years 250 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:14,439 Speaker 1: of you contributing debates about macro policy, and you're very 251 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 1: much associated with the view that we should be changing 252 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:22,160 Speaker 1: our attitude to fiscal policy, and particularly in the event 253 00:18:22,200 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: of another downturn, we should have a different approach to 254 00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: to the sort of sustainability of of fiscal stimulus, and 255 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 1: we should expect to rely more on fiscal policy down 256 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 1: the road because of this situation, a very low interest 257 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 1: rates and the fact that monetary policy is going to 258 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 1: be constraint. And the surprise comes from people who've heard 259 00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: all of that. And then here you so vigorously condemning 260 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 1: the proposals of the likes of Alexandria Cortez Um, who 261 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 1: is also associated with sort of in a sense talk 262 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: of of of fiscal stimulus and fiscal activism. Why is 263 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: it so important to you to draw its distinction between 264 00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:06,480 Speaker 1: those kind of radical democrat proposals and what you've been 265 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:10,160 Speaker 1: talking about over the last few years. I think it's 266 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:18,880 Speaker 1: a fair uh fair question, Stephanie. As I hear the 267 00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:25,400 Speaker 1: proposals that come from the so called modern monetary theorists, 268 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:29,840 Speaker 1: there seems to be an implication that you can do 269 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 1: whatever you want with fiscal policy if you're just willing 270 00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: in some appropriate way to print money. You know. The 271 00:19:40,359 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 1: analogy I'd like to use is with um incentives and 272 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 1: supply side economics. There was a valid recognition in the 273 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:52,919 Speaker 1: late nineties seventies that in addition to their demand effects, 274 00:19:53,520 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: tax has had UM incentive effects on how much people 275 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,240 Speaker 1: wanted to work and save and invest and so forth. 276 00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:07,200 Speaker 1: That was an important insight, but then it became UM 277 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 1: a claim that tax cuts would pay for themselves, which 278 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:16,800 Speaker 1: was completely irresponsible with the Laugher curve. And I feel 279 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 1: the same way about modern monetary UH theory that it 280 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:25,640 Speaker 1: takes a valid idea that you know, a low interest 281 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: rate environment, more expansionary fiscal policy than we would have 282 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:36,439 Speaker 1: previously thought was appropriate UM is appropriate, and turns it 283 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:41,639 Speaker 1: into an absurd free lunch kind of idea that we 284 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: don't need to think about budget constraints. But in this environment, 285 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 1: if we have a prolonged period of super low interest rates, 286 00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,280 Speaker 1: it is the case that we could be less concerned 287 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,120 Speaker 1: about I think I've been very I think I've been 288 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: very clear that UH justice. People can afford to buy 289 00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: a more expensive house when interest rates are low than 290 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 1: when interest rates are high. The government can afford to 291 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:15,440 Speaker 1: run a larger deficit and run up we're debt when 292 00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:18,800 Speaker 1: interest rates are low than when interest rates are high. 293 00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: But that doesn't remove the obligation to budget and plan 294 00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: and make choices, and the problematic aspect of at least 295 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: much of the advocacy of modern monetary theory is the 296 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:40,159 Speaker 1: suggestion that is somehow don't have to make uh choices 297 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 1: and you don't have to plan in careful ways around 298 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: your budget. And I do think that's an irresponsible idea. Now, 299 00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 1: I just have time to give you one more piece 300 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: of news, and that's the announcement of the not at 301 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: all cover to prize of most Miserable Economy of the 302 00:22:02,920 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 1: Year for eighteen, as measured in the latest Bloomberg Misery Index. Now. 303 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 1: Katarina Survivor is an economic data editor in the Global 304 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 1: Economic Surveys team for Bloomberg, and she put this year's 305 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,160 Speaker 1: index together along with our Southeast Asia economy reporter Michelle 306 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 1: jam Risco. Katerina is here with me. Now, Katarina, tell 307 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 1: me how this index is compiled and who's top of 308 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 1: the list, Who's most miserable for this year? Hi? Yes, So, 309 00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:35,720 Speaker 1: our Misery Index is the classic combination of countries unemployment 310 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: rate and inflation rate, and in our Bloomberg Index, we 311 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: have sixty two countries for which we have a good 312 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 1: amount of private sector estimates. So we're talking about banks, 313 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: academic institutions, research institutions. And at the top of our 314 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: list is Venezuela, which will come not as not much 315 00:22:56,520 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: of a surprise. In Venezuela this year has in eye 316 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:05,639 Speaker 1: popping misery score of eight million, and that is mostly 317 00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:11,439 Speaker 1: due to its extremely high inflation. I imagine that's an 318 00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:15,679 Speaker 1: all time records. Yes it indeed it is in the 319 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: in all the five years that we've been doing. Yes, absolutely. 320 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: Um And our calculation of Venezuela's actual misery score for 321 00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: last year, which is based on um I m F data, 322 00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:30,000 Speaker 1: because the country has not published economic data in quite 323 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 1: a while, is just about nine hundred and thirty thousands. 324 00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 1: So you can see that that is a substantial increase 325 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: even over last year's. So I guess this isn't a 326 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,520 Speaker 1: list that you really do want to be top off. 327 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: You want to be bossom. So so who is the 328 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:48,200 Speaker 1: which is the least miserable country this year? Our least 329 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: miserable country and this has been all five years that 330 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: we've done this index is Thailand. They have kind of 331 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:59,159 Speaker 1: unique ways of calculating unemployment, so we don't like to 332 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,160 Speaker 1: focus too much on their position in this way. When 333 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: you say unique, you mean they just don't count all 334 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 1: of them? Is that yes, I think it's great. I'm 335 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:13,919 Speaker 1: not completely I'm not an expert in in the Thaie economy, 336 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:19,200 Speaker 1: but they yeah, I think they don't quite count all 337 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 1: of the people. Or perhaps there's a bit of a 338 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,119 Speaker 1: shadow job market as as we see in in quite 339 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 1: a lot of countries. So what is it? We probably 340 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 1: wouldn't think of Thailand as the les miserable country or 341 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:38,600 Speaker 1: maybe even happiest country. But what are the other countries 342 00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,480 Speaker 1: that appear low on this list? So we have are 343 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,920 Speaker 1: in our number two spot is Switzerland, um, and they've 344 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 1: improved a bit over last year. We also have Singapore 345 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,280 Speaker 1: in the third spot, and then Japan, which I think 346 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,920 Speaker 1: also won't be too surprising to people as they have 347 00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: had persistently low inflation and and that's probably a country 348 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: that's a good example of UM. You know, maybe this 349 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:10,000 Speaker 1: this low number is not quite a great thing. I 350 00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: guess that's one of those things that probably the feature 351 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,439 Speaker 1: of this index is that it's not so bad at 352 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:20,480 Speaker 1: capturing misery because it's combining the inflation and the unemployment, 353 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: and if you've got high numbers on both, you're not 354 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,640 Speaker 1: likely to be in a good state as an economy, 355 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: but it probably doesn't doesn't really capture what's going on 356 00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:32,120 Speaker 1: further down the list, because if you've got very low inflation, 357 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,960 Speaker 1: you might still be quite miserable, or you certainly might 358 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:39,400 Speaker 1: have quite a slow growth, quite a stagnant economy. Exactly. Yeah, 359 00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: And that's been the story of the index this year 360 00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,840 Speaker 1: because we're seeing quite a lot of countries that have 361 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:49,040 Speaker 1: improved their score, such as the US and the UK. 362 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:53,280 Speaker 1: But it's not necessarily a positive thing because both of 363 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,359 Speaker 1: these countries are battling pretty low inflation, and and that's 364 00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 1: not a great barometer of economic sentiment and just well 365 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:06,280 Speaker 1: being because it shows that the consumer is not as 366 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,639 Speaker 1: confident as perhaps consumers should be in a healthy and 367 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: strong economy. And of course we have the same old 368 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: debates about whether or any of these measures GDP, inflation 369 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 1: or I think can really get to what's going on 370 00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,200 Speaker 1: in the country and whether a real measures of well 371 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 1: being and whether people are satisfied with life. But I 372 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: do notice that you certainly it's as as is traditional. 373 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:35,800 Speaker 1: There are a lot of South American countries on this list. 374 00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: We don't just have Venezuela at the top, where it's 375 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: extraordinary inflation rate nine. In two thousand and eighteen it 376 00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 1: had a nine twenty nine thousand percent inflation rate. But 377 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 1: you also have Argentina in the top ten. You've got Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil. 378 00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: So some things don't change, yeah, exactly. And Argentina has 379 00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 1: held onto that second spot for a while as well. 380 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,720 Speaker 1: It looked last year like things were improving a bit, 381 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 1: but they're now in their second recession in three years, UM, 382 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:13,800 Speaker 1: battling extremely high inflation. I mean, nowhere near Venezuela's, of course, 383 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: but in March it was at fifty percent year over year. 384 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 1: I mean that's a very high number. And the government 385 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 1: has just rolled out some price freezes UM, I think 386 00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,840 Speaker 1: in part to try to make things a bit easier 387 00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,959 Speaker 1: for the consumer there. I think the past year has 388 00:27:30,000 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 1: been one of some issues in South America again, and 389 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: and it's it's kind of sad because it's in countries 390 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: that UM. There. There seemed to be some good progress 391 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 1: going on with the economies UM in the past couple 392 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 1: of years, and that seems to have rolled back a bit, 393 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 1: especially for Argentina and Brazil. In the years time, we'll 394 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 1: have you back and see whether all of these reforms 395 00:27:56,320 --> 00:27:59,359 Speaker 1: in Brazil have managed to take it off the top 396 00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:01,800 Speaker 1: ten slope, but Katerina Surriva, thank you very much for 397 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:13,520 Speaker 1: joining us. Yes, thank you, it's a pleasure. Thanks for 398 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:16,040 Speaker 1: listening to Stephanomics. We'll be back next week with more 399 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 1: on the ground insight into the global economy. In the meantime, 400 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,639 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app, 401 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,399 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it if 402 00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: you took the time to rate and review the show 403 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,320 Speaker 1: so it can reach more listeners. For more news and 404 00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: analysis from Bloomberg Economics, follow at Economics on Twitter. You 405 00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:38,520 Speaker 1: can also find me on at my Stephanomics. The story 406 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: in this episode was reported and written by Bruce Douglas. 407 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 1: It was produced by Magnus Hendrickson and edited by Scott Lamman, 408 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 1: who's also the executive producer of Stephanomics Special thanks to 409 00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:55,000 Speaker 1: Professor Larry Summers, Katerina Survivor, Raymond Collet, and Simon Iglesias. 410 00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 1: Francesca Levy is the head of Bloomberg Podcasts. Say