1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. If you 11 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 2: have a tour duty at the Feller Reserve Bank of Richmond, 12 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:53,000 Speaker 2: that means you have a certain cast. 13 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 3: It's called fresh Water. 14 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,959 Speaker 2: Or title Economics, and it goes really interesting theories dot 15 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 2: and they're the late Marvin good Friend was one of 16 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 2: the academics that led so much of that. And you 17 00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 2: you know, you get the fed Richmond with all of 18 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 2: its history, it's heritage. You can do that out of 19 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 2: Washington and Lee University, which is you know, it's a 20 00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 2: short drive. You know, you get the carriage, you know, 21 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 2: the two horse carriage and yep, you go up there, 22 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 2: and of course you do it with some hard nosed 23 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 2: University of Chicago economic Stephen Stanley joins us now right 24 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: now with cent Tender. 25 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 3: What was it like at the Richmond Fed. 26 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 2: I've done so much work with them, including visiting, and 27 00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 2: you know their history. They used to write these the 28 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 2: Edgeworth Box, forty two pages on the Edgeworth Box. What 29 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,160 Speaker 2: was it like walking in to the Federal Reserve Bank 30 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:44,520 Speaker 2: of Richmond out of Washington Lee in Chicago. 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 4: Well, well, first of all, I have to say, I 32 00:01:45,959 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 4: feel like I'm on this is your life, this is 33 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,040 Speaker 4: this is a great but yeah, it was great. It 34 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 4: was a fantastic place to start my career. Marvin was 35 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 4: was one of my mentors, and I learned so much, 36 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 4: you know, it was Yeah, it was fantas. 37 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 2: Is there underlying real economy theory valid? Or is there 38 00:02:03,560 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: something to the saltwater economics of the Charles River? 39 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 3: Well? I think so. 40 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:12,079 Speaker 4: Back in the day, you know, going back decades, the 41 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 4: Richmond FED was definitely one of the monitorists banks, and 42 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 4: that of course, you know, the theories there have evolved, 43 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 4: but I certainly think that the framework that I got 44 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,840 Speaker 4: has helped me a lot So does. 45 00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 3: The FRED have a framework? Now? 46 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 2: I don't if it's neo Monitorist, neo Kayesian, neo Stanley, 47 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 2: I don't care. But all of our you know, Paul 48 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:39,639 Speaker 2: and I get mail on this every least it gets 49 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 2: mail on this. The bottom line is is there a plan? 50 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 2: Is there a framework? Well? 51 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 4: I think the closest thing they have to that would 52 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 4: be the board staff in their models, which I mean, 53 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 4: broadly speaking, I would say, are kind of, as you say, 54 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 4: neo Kayesian. I think the Phillips curve gets a lot 55 00:02:56,440 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 4: of weight at the FED, even though publicly the FED 56 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 4: will kind of itself from that. That has always been 57 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 4: a load star for the FED. But I think there's 58 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 4: also a lot of pragmatism now, which you know is 59 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 4: good and bad. I think it's good that people are flexible, 60 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 4: but at the same time, it sometimes does feel like 61 00:03:15,919 --> 00:03:20,119 Speaker 4: there isn't really a strong framework from which to through 62 00:03:20,160 --> 00:03:21,720 Speaker 4: which to interpret the data. 63 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,520 Speaker 5: So how do you think the FED is interpreting that 64 00:03:24,600 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 5: data these days? I mean they say they're data dependent, 65 00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 5: and the data, particularly the inflation data will wapstick at 66 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 5: the PCE on Friday, But it's kind of reared its 67 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:34,680 Speaker 5: head a little bit more over the last few months. 68 00:03:34,920 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 5: Do you think it's enough for the FED that you say, 69 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 5: I think we're just going to sit on the sidelines 70 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 5: and see what happens. 71 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 4: Well, here's how I would frame it up. So for 72 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 4: about eighteen months, roughly the end of last year, you 73 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 4: heard Terman Powell over and over again saying, we think 74 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 4: we're going to need to see a period of subpar growth, 75 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 4: slackening in the labor market if we're going to get 76 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 4: inflation where we want it down to two percent on 77 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 4: a sustainable basis. And then you had that period in 78 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 4: the second half of last year when growth was really strong, 79 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 4: but the inflation numbers were still coming down, and I 80 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 4: think they got a little bit enamored by that, and 81 00:04:08,120 --> 00:04:11,720 Speaker 4: all of a sudden in January you heard Powell essentially say, 82 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 4: we think maybe we can have our cake and eat 83 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 4: it too. 84 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 3: Here. 85 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 4: We think the economy can just rip along and inflation 86 00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 4: is magically going to make its way to two percent. 87 00:04:19,040 --> 00:04:21,359 Speaker 4: And I think the data so far this year has 88 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 4: been a bit of a slap in the face to 89 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:23,919 Speaker 4: that optimism. 90 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 5: Are you concerned that this economy? I mean, it seems 91 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 5: like again I took a couple of business classes at 92 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 5: the University Richmond. I feel like i'm economics classes. I 93 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,719 Speaker 5: feel like i'm you know, I can stayed in opinion 94 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 5: on economics. Is this soft landing? Have they landed this 95 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 5: soft landing? Or do you think there's a risk that 96 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 5: maybe it's gonna a little bit bumpier maybe? 97 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,440 Speaker 4: Well, I mean we've certainly made good progress on that front, 98 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 4: but I don't think you can declare victory until inflation 99 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 4: is actually back to two percent. 100 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 5: Now, what's the two percent number? When did that come about? 101 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 5: I never heard about that until like a couple of 102 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 5: years ago. Yeah, and then people started talking about two 103 00:04:58,160 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 5: what's wrong with two? 104 00:04:58,760 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 3: When I had for three percent? 105 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:04,840 Speaker 4: So, you know, the the in theory price stability you 106 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 4: would think would bean zero insplation. 107 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 5: Okay, but there are two issues. 108 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 4: One is the the there's you know, economists will tell 109 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 4: you that there the inflation data are biased, so the 110 00:05:15,400 --> 00:05:18,760 Speaker 4: true price stability number is probably somewhere between a half 111 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 4: percent and one percent. And secondly, and more importantly, I 112 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:25,039 Speaker 4: think the FED has been spooked over the last several 113 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 4: cycles by getting captured in the zero bound, and they 114 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:31,400 Speaker 4: want to stay away from that as much as they can. 115 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:35,720 Speaker 4: And so a little higher inflation takes them further. 116 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 3: Away from the zero bound on average Earth. 117 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 2: Thing the last two days has been the stimulus. 118 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:42,440 Speaker 3: How does it unwine? 119 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 2: Ruscher Shearmer with a brilliant piece in the ft today, 120 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: iconic at Morgan Stanley and his work at the Rockefeller Foundation. 121 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 2: Now just just wonderful trying to figure out this mystery 122 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 2: of the glide path of what I'm going to invent 123 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 2: this word this morning. You could steal it, Steve stimulus. 124 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 2: What's your framework for how many quarters we need to 125 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 2: migrate out to de stimulize from the pandemic? 126 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I think for me it's at this point 127 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 4: it's not as much the pandemic anymore in the sense 128 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 4: that the the you know, I think there's still a 129 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 4: lot of fiscal stimulus in the system, but the bulk 130 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 4: of it is not coming from the pandemic programs. It's 131 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,679 Speaker 4: coming from the things that were passed afterward, the infrastructure agreed. 132 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:28,119 Speaker 3: Agree. 133 00:06:28,279 --> 00:06:31,520 Speaker 2: Blanchard has talked about the three levels of stimulus. Yeah, okay, 134 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 2: so what's your timeline on this? 135 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 3: Wow? 136 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 4: I mean these programs that we just ticked off have 137 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 4: multi year spending paths, So I think it's a while. 138 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,039 Speaker 4: I mean, what I would really like to see is 139 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 4: I'd like to see some fiscal discipline. I mean, we're 140 00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 4: running two trillion dollars a year budget. 141 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 2: Depth there there's the Richmond. 142 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 3: That's it. We need to We got to end the interview. 143 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 2: But it's good with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, 144 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 2: Steve's family with us. 145 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 3: What we're gonna do here, folks, is there's usual. 146 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 2: Blah blah blah blah, like where are we in, what's 147 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,640 Speaker 2: housing inflation going to do? And maybe what the international 148 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 2: thing is? And then there's a memo that just stops you. 149 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 3: In your tracks. 150 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 2: Terry Weissman with us right now to say he's had 151 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 2: a global currency. 152 00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 3: He's interest rate. 153 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 2: Strategy at Macquarie barely describes decades of experience. Back to 154 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 2: Fortress Schwartz at bear Stearns a few years ago. I 155 00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 2: was stopped and I was thinking of David folkerts Lando 156 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 2: of Deutsche Bank the day after Putin invaded Ukraine. And 157 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 2: here you are with a definitive, piercing note. Let's repeat 158 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 2: what we've already said. Wars are inflationary? Are we missing 159 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 2: the forest from somewhere out there? The trees. Is all 160 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,360 Speaker 2: of this inflation we're talking about. Maybe we had a 161 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 2: war in a pandemic, but these wars are inflationary full stop. 162 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is not the shouldn't be a mystery to 163 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:08,280 Speaker 1: most people, Tom. I think if you look at the 164 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: history of inflations in the US and where we've had 165 00:08:10,360 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: big spikes, it was during Korea, right. We had a 166 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,920 Speaker 1: demobilization after World War Two and inflation fell. But when 167 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: Korea started, we had a big inflation in the US. 168 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: And then we had an inflation again in the intensification 169 00:08:21,920 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: of the Vietnam War in the late sixties. And then 170 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: we had an inflation again in nineteen seventy three, which 171 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,800 Speaker 1: coincided with the Arab Azareeli war of the time. And 172 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: we had an inflation again with the First Gulf War, right, 173 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,600 Speaker 1: and we had an inflation again with Russia and Ukraine. 174 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:39,199 Speaker 1: I mean, this is this Optically, you look at these 175 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 1: charts and you look at what coincides with these wars, 176 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: it has to be it is these spikes and inflation. 177 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: You have to conclude that there has something to do. 178 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,280 Speaker 1: There's something to do with the idea that wars cause inflation. 179 00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:50,319 Speaker 1: I think, you know, you can talk about what the 180 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: channels are, but supply side disruptions, right, So an important 181 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:55,480 Speaker 1: aspect of that. 182 00:08:55,559 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 5: I mean, you know, I'm still going at WT crude oil, 183 00:08:58,080 --> 00:08:59,959 Speaker 5: you know, or actually Brent crude were down to bad 184 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:02,600 Speaker 5: eighty six. We were up to close over ninety here, 185 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 5: So how do you factor that? And what's happening in Ukraine, 186 00:09:06,160 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 5: what's happening in the Middle East. We passed another bill 187 00:09:08,880 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 5: for also to fund some issues in Taiwan. How does 188 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 5: that factor into your research and kind of how you 189 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,719 Speaker 5: view kind of rates, how you view currencies. 190 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, let me say that a lot of economists tend 191 00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 1: to discount the importance of oil prices in the overall 192 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:27,240 Speaker 1: inflation picture and in respect to the Fed's policy outlook. 193 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,800 Speaker 1: And the reason for that is also simple. It's not 194 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: part of core inflation. We like to think of energy 195 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: and the energy complex sitting outside of core, and we 196 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 1: like to think that when oil prices go up, it's 197 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: going to be temporary, in part because it is a 198 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:43,000 Speaker 1: supply side shock that drives these prices from time to time. 199 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:47,120 Speaker 1: I tend to fight against that view. And here's the reason. 200 00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: If you are a labor union and you're sitting in 201 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: front of your employer and you're demanding higher wages. You're 202 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,440 Speaker 1: not going to say I don't eat food and I 203 00:09:58,440 --> 00:10:01,440 Speaker 1: don't consume energy. You're going to say, I want my 204 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: wage increase based on the basket that I consume in 205 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: that basket very much. For the average work in the 206 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 1: United States is energy intensive and is food intensive. So 207 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 1: even though core may be a better reflection of underlying inflation, 208 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: when headline goes up, you have to imagine that workers 209 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 1: are going to pressure their employers for higher wages, and 210 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,600 Speaker 1: to the extent that wages cause inflation, that in itself 211 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: becomes inflation. 212 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 2: They in herited you. What you're hearing there, folks, this 213 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 2: is critical the path here. There was a guy named 214 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 2: Lawrence Kudlow million years ago before he was a ginormous 215 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:36,439 Speaker 2: TV star. I love busting Larry's jobs. And he held 216 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:39,600 Speaker 2: courted Bear Stearns and people threw apples and rocks at 217 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 2: him because he was working in the nominal space. And 218 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 2: then malpass In writing in Weissman, they were working in 219 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 2: the nominal. They had respect for the nominal space besides 220 00:10:51,160 --> 00:10:54,679 Speaker 2: a convenience and crutch of real Right now, do we 221 00:10:54,880 --> 00:10:59,439 Speaker 2: under emphasize the nominal space and the persistency of a 222 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 2: higher ne nominal GDP. 223 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 1: No, I actually don't think we do to the extent 224 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: that we are that the world central banks are inflation targeters, 225 00:11:09,240 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: it implies that they are very much looking at the 226 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 1: nominal space. Now, if nominal GDP were to rally a 227 00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: lot and real GDP were not to rally a lot, 228 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: you'd effectively have what is called an inflation problem, presumably 229 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 1: driven by a supply side shock. You could make a 230 00:11:23,679 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 1: case that the central banks should not respond to a 231 00:11:26,880 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: supply side driven increase in inflation to the same extent that 232 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 1: they would a real demand positive demand shock increase that 233 00:11:33,920 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 1: that causes inflation. But that's exactly the point that I 234 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:39,880 Speaker 1: was trying to contest earlier, And the reason is because 235 00:11:39,920 --> 00:11:43,320 Speaker 1: inflation expectations matter. At least the conventional wisdom is that 236 00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 1: they do. Banks believe that they do. 237 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 2: What does inflation expectations The synthesis of. 238 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 1: That tell you right now that they're not high enough 239 00:11:51,520 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: to cause panic at the FED. But there is this 240 00:11:54,280 --> 00:11:58,040 Speaker 1: risk that if oil prices stay high indefinitely because of 241 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 1: these issues regarding supply side chalks, the war, climate change, demography, 242 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,680 Speaker 1: et cetera, even deglobalization that they may at some point 243 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 1: start to drift higher. 244 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 5: I could be a currency trader. I'm just long the dollar. 245 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 5: Give me a bare case for the dollar. I mean, 246 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 5: I could do this for a living. 247 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: So the bare case for the dollar, if there's a 248 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: structural one, is that the dollar will no longer be 249 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: at some point, and no one knows when the world's 250 00:12:25,960 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 1: reserve currency. Now we are already seeing signs that this 251 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:35,480 Speaker 1: is manifest. We see, of course, we see China accumulating gold. Well, 252 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: that's telling you that they may not like the dollar anymore. 253 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: We certainly see the Russians moving away from dollar reserves. 254 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: We've seen the Venezuelans do that. Now the bold case 255 00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:46,520 Speaker 1: for the dollar as well. You can dismiss these countries 256 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,199 Speaker 1: because they're, you know, part of this I don't want 257 00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,320 Speaker 1: to say access of evil obviously, but they're not on 258 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: the same side of the fence as the US. But 259 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: to the extent that we get a bipolarity in this world, 260 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,120 Speaker 1: that we really get a true a new Berlin Wall 261 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: that goes up between the West and the rest, you 262 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:04,720 Speaker 1: have to imagine that that's going to be bad for 263 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: the dollar, because the dollar has benefited in this era 264 00:13:07,559 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 1: of globalization. Anything that tends to reduce the amount of 265 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 1: globalization tends to be bad for the dollar. And that 266 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 1: new Berlin Wall would be bad for the dollar. 267 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 2: What are we gonna see in GDP here in a 268 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 2: couple of days? 269 00:13:18,280 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 3: Does a quarry of a view. 270 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: On usgd Yeah, it's going to stay robust, does it? 271 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: Do we have a pinpoint view on quarter ones? 272 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 3: Yeah? 273 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: On quarter one's results, I think we're at about two 274 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 1: point five percent, if not my sake, in two point 275 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: four two point five annualized robust. 276 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 2: Yeah. 277 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's very close to consensus. If you look 278 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:36,480 Speaker 1: at some of these GDP now estimates that come out 279 00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: of some of the reserve banks are fed, they're a 280 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: little bit higher. 281 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:39,880 Speaker 3: Uh. 282 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:41,680 Speaker 1: And again if they are, if it is going to 283 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 1: be strong, it's going to be driven by consumption. 284 00:13:43,760 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 2: This is fab as Terry Weiss would thank you so 285 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 2: much and congratulations on a really thought provoking note in 286 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:54,119 Speaker 2: your team. It's just blunt, folks, Wars lead to inflation. 287 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 2: If you're seeing your consultant at Deloitte, yep, that gives 288 00:14:03,200 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 2: you a twisted perspective. I mean, it's not like you know, 289 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:09,040 Speaker 2: complains a lot's CFA combine. It's not like you know, 290 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 2: you know, you come out of King's College, you get 291 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:16,199 Speaker 2: some parchment modern history in Oxford that sets you up 292 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:17,839 Speaker 2: for this, the streaming wars. 293 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 3: Why don't you bring in our. 294 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,040 Speaker 5: Next victim, I'll tell you. One of the top media 295 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 5: analysts in the city of London, covering all the European 296 00:14:25,160 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 5: media sector for many years as Ian Whittaker, Managing director 297 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 5: and owner of Liberty Sky Advisors. He's based in London, 298 00:14:32,400 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 5: joining us here in New York City doing a little 299 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:36,480 Speaker 5: tour here in the US. Ian, thanks so much for 300 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,440 Speaker 5: coming into our studio. We appreciate it. We have some 301 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:43,720 Speaker 5: really good numbers that blew Tom keenan I away from Netflix. 302 00:14:43,880 --> 00:14:48,480 Speaker 5: I mean, is this streaming business? Netflix can certainly make 303 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 5: a lot of money. How about the other media companies, 304 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 5: the Disney's, the Paramounts, the Tom's favorite, Warner Brothers, Discovery. 305 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 5: What's happening in the streaming business? 306 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 6: So thanks very much too for having the Thanks very 307 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 6: much Tom as well. I think if you look at streaming, 308 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 6: if you look at long term view, it's absolutely right. 309 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 6: Netflix is numbers on a Q one basis absolutely fantastic. 310 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:13,000 Speaker 6: Really hard to disagree where anything they did. 311 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 3: I think if you actually look at. 312 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 6: Sort of some of the underlying things sort of within 313 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 6: there and some of the details and some of the 314 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 6: things they didn't mention, big question marks. You take away, 315 00:15:22,600 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 6: as been mentioned, information on subscriber growth in twenty twenty 316 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 6: five Honors. What does that say games that had been 317 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 6: talked about as a big strategy sort of for them 318 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 6: to grow revenues. Nothing on the call whatsoever in terms 319 00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 6: of that, And the games games industry is quite tough 320 00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 6: at the moment. 321 00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 3: Sports. 322 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 6: You listen to what they're saying at the moment, definitely 323 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 6: sounds as though there is a shift in terms of 324 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 6: their strategy in sports, but they're going to have to 325 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 6: spend big ye if they're going to do this. So 326 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 6: there's a range of different questions. I think the fundamental 327 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 6: issue for the streaming business is this what the big 328 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 6: media companies have done. I think they've be placed a 329 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 6: model that we're extremely well with it for them for 330 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 6: the number of years, and they sort of jumped into 331 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 6: streaming into a business model that quite frankly is not 332 00:16:09,200 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 6: sort of not great longer term, and I think we'll 333 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 6: look back in probably five to ten years time. I 334 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:16,640 Speaker 6: would say, this'll be one of those business case studies 335 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 6: where people would say, why didn't the major media companies, 336 00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 6: the business warns, et cetera, taken a little bit more 337 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 6: time before they jumped on the streaming bandwagon, because if 338 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 6: you look at it, streaming penetration is flatlining in many countries. Yeah, 339 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 6: I think fundamental mistake that the streaming executives made, particularly 340 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 6: big media companies, was to treat the rest of the 341 00:16:38,080 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 6: world as though it was the US in terms of 342 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:43,760 Speaker 6: the same dynamics. Absolutely not the case whatsoever, even in 343 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 6: the market like Curek, which is quite similar and so forth. 344 00:16:46,760 --> 00:16:48,040 Speaker 6: And now you see all of them, what are they 345 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 6: focusing on trying to reduce losses? Yep, Okay, well that's great, 346 00:16:52,280 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 6: but that's not a growth strategy moving forward. So I 347 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:58,520 Speaker 6: think if I look on a longer term basis, sure 348 00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 6: there's a little bit of confidence for streaming, but longer term, 349 00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 6: I think it's the dynamics still difficult. 350 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 5: So you look at a company like Paramount, for example, 351 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 5: which back in the day you and I recall when 352 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,119 Speaker 5: Paramount was a slash Viacom slash CBS was a great company, 353 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:18,440 Speaker 5: was a blue chip media company. They can't give themselves 354 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 5: away these days. I mean, what happens to a company 355 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:25,840 Speaker 5: like a paramount as they try to navigate to this 356 00:17:25,920 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 5: streaming world. 357 00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 6: Well, I think again it sort of comes back to 358 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,800 Speaker 6: this point that for many of these companies, what they 359 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:34,879 Speaker 6: did was pushed in. What they didn't think about was 360 00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,840 Speaker 6: what exactly was the long game here. The smartest one 361 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 6: and this is not this is something that's been said 362 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 6: by others as well, but the smartest sort of company 363 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:45,639 Speaker 6: on the entertainment space was solely because what I said was, 364 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 6: you know what, we cannot compete in terms of being 365 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 6: a mass market streaming player. It actually makes sense for 366 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,160 Speaker 6: us to sell our content to other players the arms 367 00:17:53,160 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 6: dealer in that that has been used multiple times as well. 368 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,639 Speaker 6: You look at someone like a paramount, that's exactly what 369 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:01,400 Speaker 6: the strategy for somebody like a parent should be. Free 370 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 6: cash flow generation. 371 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 2: Great, So, well, sell the book, I get it, sell 372 00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 2: the catalog, I get it. But to me, there's a 373 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,920 Speaker 2: fundamental issue in the train wreck of Paul Sweeney's world, 374 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:15,600 Speaker 2: and that is the intangible assets and bad will and 375 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:20,920 Speaker 2: the balance sheets. These numbers are in my amateur opinion, jenormous. 376 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 2: Is the shock that's coming that they're going to have 377 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 2: to udjust intangibles down. 378 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:26,960 Speaker 7: Yeah. 379 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 6: I mean that's a great question and the answer is 380 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 6: probably yes. The point being, I think if you were 381 00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 6: to ask, if you to ask all these streaming executives, 382 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 6: all the top CEOs of these companies that on this 383 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:42,600 Speaker 6: truth about where they think the streaming business would go, 384 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 6: I think they fundamentally recognize that essentially the endgame is 385 00:18:47,800 --> 00:18:51,000 Speaker 6: not looking good. The problem becomes for many of them 386 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 6: in terms of a reputation. They've gone to the market 387 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:57,239 Speaker 6: and sold this sort of story for years, and I 388 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 6: think many of them will find it very difficult to 389 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 6: actually step out of that. That's going to be really 390 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 6: the big issue. I think what will happen is that 391 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,720 Speaker 6: you'll get a continuation in the story, people saying, look, 392 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 6: there's growth coming over the next three to five years. 393 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:11,760 Speaker 6: But at some point these pay he's going to have 394 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 6: to buite the bubble. 395 00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:14,239 Speaker 2: Are you Are you in New York on your way 396 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 2: to LA to help close the paramount dealers? 397 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 3: I make some news to that. I'm always available for quit. 398 00:19:20,520 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 5: I have to go that talk to us about the 399 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 5: global advertising business. I think you have a lot of 400 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,920 Speaker 5: experience with the big ad agencies in London in New York. 401 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,760 Speaker 5: Here is any Is the money still going to broadcast 402 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 5: and cable television or is it just going to the 403 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 5: Metas of the world and the Googles of the world. 404 00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's really interesting dynamics that you've got 405 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 6: been advertising at the moment. So if you take the 406 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 6: advertising industry generally in terms of bad spend, you know, 407 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 6: what would say is that you've seen the advertising market 408 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 6: perform much better than expected over the past couple of years. 409 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 6: And I think what you've had here is a vast 410 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,520 Speaker 6: and planned experiment over the past two years where companies 411 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,959 Speaker 6: were able to pull up their prices much more aggressively 412 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 6: to consumers than they thought. And if you listen to 413 00:19:59,880 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 6: the conference calls from those companies, they will say probably 414 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,840 Speaker 6: the key reason they were able to do that was 415 00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 6: the strength of the brand. And so I think fundamentally 416 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,880 Speaker 6: there is a sort of realization that advertising works. Then 417 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 6: the questionure mark becomes where exactly is that money going to? 418 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 6: And what is interesting here when you look at the 419 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:19,199 Speaker 6: numbers in terms of each so that you look at 420 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,680 Speaker 6: the broadcasters had a tough twenty twenty three, twenty twenty four. 421 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 6: You know the question marks. Actually in New Yorpe it 422 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 6: started off well to be okay for the broadcasters and 423 00:20:27,320 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 6: so forth. Is money going to the online platforms? You're 424 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 6: starting to see the growth slope now. If you take 425 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 6: Facebook Facebook last year everyone said revenue numbers absolutely fantastic, 426 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,800 Speaker 6: you know, great growth and so forth. That was driven 427 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:44,280 Speaker 6: by advertising revenues coming from Asia Pac advertisers. You look 428 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 6: at it was up thirty percent sort of twenty twenty three, 429 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:50,240 Speaker 6: nearly double the revenue growth. If you look for North 430 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 6: American advertisers, their spend on Facebook was only up single digits. 431 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,840 Speaker 6: So I think, you know, one of the big questions 432 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,879 Speaker 6: we're going to have over the next let's say, two 433 00:20:58,960 --> 00:21:02,880 Speaker 6: to three four years, is you've got these platforms where 434 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:07,000 Speaker 6: there's increasingly questioned marks from the established markets as the weather, 435 00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 6: money should be going in okay, But where does that 436 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 6: many go in future retail media? You know, does it 437 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 6: go to some other segments that come up at the. 438 00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 2: Moment, right we're out of time, Ian don't be a stranger, 439 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 2: Ian Whittaker, where the Liberty Sky Advisors as well? 440 00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:23,359 Speaker 5: Just a few times did Jessica Cohen. 441 00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 3: Were you on the same watch with Jessica Coin Beryl. 442 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 6: In the London team. Yeah, back in the early season. 443 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 2: Very cool Ian, Thank you. So I'd love to get 444 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:45,440 Speaker 2: you on with Jessica ref Colin Roy your Daily look 445 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 2: at the front pages around the World, our most popular segment. 446 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:50,520 Speaker 3: Lisa Matteo. 447 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 8: So, we've been talking about all different things that that 448 00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,040 Speaker 8: New Yorkers are that concern New Yorkers. Right, we talked 449 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 8: about congestion, pricing, hot button issue. The other one, it's 450 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 8: the one Michael Barr has been talking about a lot 451 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 8: of the protests going on over the Israel God's Award. 452 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 8: They're starting to ramp up. You heard him talk about 453 00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 8: Columbia University. They canceled in person classes. Police they've arrested 454 00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:14,399 Speaker 8: a dozen protesters at Yale New York University, and the 455 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,720 Speaker 8: college leaders are in their spot. They're being called out 456 00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 8: for whether they're doing enough to protect students, faculty, staff, 457 00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,000 Speaker 8: and at the same time they're being criticized for denying 458 00:22:22,040 --> 00:22:24,160 Speaker 8: students right to speak out. So they're in this weird 459 00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 8: position already. You had more than one hundred demonstrators arrested 460 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,879 Speaker 8: at Columbia last night. More arrests at NYU. I mean 461 00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 8: it's spreading to different universities at Boston University, University of 462 00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 8: North Carolina, Chapel Hill, MIT, the University of California at Berkeley. 463 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:40,640 Speaker 8: So this is a growing issue. 464 00:22:41,000 --> 00:22:42,400 Speaker 3: There's a lot of other schools. 465 00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:46,159 Speaker 2: There's somebody out on Twitter saying yep, but then there's Chicago, 466 00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:47,320 Speaker 2: or then there's Duke. 467 00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:49,840 Speaker 3: Paul, you just visited Duke, And. 468 00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 2: Every school is dealing with this in original way. 469 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 3: I find that fascinating. 470 00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,720 Speaker 5: Yeah. I think most schools are just trying their best, 471 00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 5: I guess, to kind of protect free speed of what 472 00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 5: they're certainly all about, while also, you know, protecting their students. 473 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 5: All I can say is that if I were paying 474 00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 5: one hundred thousand dollars to Columbia to send my kid there, 475 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 5: I'm not sure I want them in natural classes. I 476 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 5: don't know. That's a tough situation there. 477 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 3: Well, I'm not going to go there. It's not our job. 478 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,800 Speaker 2: My job I should say, to comment on the micropolicy 479 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:24,400 Speaker 2: at a different school, I would say, Lisa, a few it's 480 00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 2: like the Fed minutes several some of us, a few 481 00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:32,400 Speaker 2: of us have a nodding acquaintance with nineteen sixty eight, 482 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,080 Speaker 2: and then the tension was a war, Vietnam War, and 483 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 2: it was also a huge undercurrent of a racial tension 484 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:44,639 Speaker 2: as well. And to me, and I'm speaking strictly as 485 00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 2: an amateur, to me, there's a huge distinction between what 486 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,879 Speaker 2: we're seeing right now and what we lived in nineteen 487 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 2: sixty eight. I happened to be in Paris in nineteen 488 00:23:54,800 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 2: sixty eight, and that complete ferment as a child. 489 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 3: And I just and I really need to read on this. 490 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:07,560 Speaker 2: From experts, including from Bloomberg Opinion about the compare contrast 491 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 2: with nineteen sixty eight, because I don't really. 492 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,919 Speaker 3: See it right now. I'd love to read more on that. 493 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 3: What else do you have? 494 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 2: Sure? 495 00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 8: But so before kids get to college, they have to 496 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,560 Speaker 8: get through elementary and middle school and high school. Schools 497 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 8: are banning cell phones, but parents they're kind of getting 498 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 8: the way of it. So this is the big battle. 499 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,840 Speaker 8: So moms and dads say they want the kids to 500 00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:29,640 Speaker 8: keep the cell phone because they want them in case 501 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 8: of emergency. Times are different now, I mean, kids are 502 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,520 Speaker 8: having you know, not shooting drills, you know, in schools. 503 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 8: But the teachers are saying that it's taking away from 504 00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,320 Speaker 8: focus it's taken away from their education time because that's 505 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 8: part of their job now, so kind of monitor kids 506 00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 8: are using these cell phones. So this is becoming the issue. 507 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,000 Speaker 8: There was a school district in Colorado tried to ban it. 508 00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 8: Parents got on the way, so they came up with 509 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,199 Speaker 8: a compromise where the kids could hold it. They do 510 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 8: this at my daughter's school. They can hold the phone, 511 00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 8: but they can't take them out until like recess or lunch. 512 00:25:00,359 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 5: But my kids, we got my kids in their mid 513 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 5: to late twenties, when they got the sixth grade, that 514 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,520 Speaker 5: was that was when we would consider it. 515 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,679 Speaker 2: Yes, okay, can I kind of do it attend into this, yes. 516 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 3: Vince Farrell, one of. 517 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 2: The giants of equity analysis, we lost them way too young. 518 00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,479 Speaker 2: I'm still in such sadness over the death of Vince Ferrell. 519 00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,320 Speaker 2: He and I said in tears one day laughing in 520 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 2: the room right next door where we invented this and. 521 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 7: Vince ferrold I were trying to outdo each other. And 522 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 7: when do you stop paying your kid's cell phone? Come on, Lisa, 523 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 7: when do you stop paying the kids? 524 00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:42,399 Speaker 5: To himself? 525 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:44,359 Speaker 1: Nine years old? 526 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 5: Nine years old, twelve, This is the I've cut my kids. 527 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:50,440 Speaker 5: They're off. 528 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,639 Speaker 8: They are off. I was, except. 529 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 5: Except for the phone. 530 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: That's the last I said good morning to the memory 531 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: of Vince Farrell. 532 00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 2: Vince Farrell went to is Greave paying. 533 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:05,480 Speaker 3: Like six kids? What do you got? 534 00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,200 Speaker 8: That's an issue. I'm telling my sister. I think it's 535 00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 8: when she got married. My fine, my parents finally cut 536 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:13,960 Speaker 8: her off of the family plan. All right, So we're 537 00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,639 Speaker 8: going back to this was yesterday story. I want to 538 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 8: point it out how the FTC is suing to block 539 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 8: that eight and a half billion dollar union of Coach Tapestry. 540 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,359 Speaker 8: So Tapestry trying to take over Capri Holdings eight and 541 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,280 Speaker 8: a half billion dollars. So it's the first time the 542 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:32,480 Speaker 8: kind of bide administration is stepping into for a deal 543 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 8: in the fashion accessories industry. That's why makes it interesting. 544 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 8: But you have Tapestry, okay, they own Coach, Kate Spades 545 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:43,320 Speaker 8: or Whitesmiths exactly who they have? You know, Michael Core's Verstachi, 546 00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 8: Jimmy Choo, Oh, Jimmy. 547 00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,880 Speaker 3: They have James Chu. You noticed they just move their story. 548 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 3: I saw you in there looking. 549 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:54,520 Speaker 8: At you can't tell my secrets. But it's the problem 550 00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 8: that the forcers are saying that it's going to deal 551 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:58,840 Speaker 8: to price rate, and they're saying the prices are going 552 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,399 Speaker 8: to start to rise if these two companies merger are 553 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 8: saying workers wages are going to be affected because the 554 00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 8: companies compete, you know, for for competition for workers. 555 00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 5: I tell you this administration is tough on get into 556 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 5: M and A. I'm an M and A lawyer. I'm like, 557 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:15,639 Speaker 5: I'm not sure I can advise you, guys, we can 558 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:16,920 Speaker 5: get anything done these days. 559 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 3: Next. 560 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,360 Speaker 8: Yes, it's a tough one, all right. If you you've 561 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 8: been online right to go shopping or whatever you do, 562 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 8: and sometimes that that notice pops up, like okay, find 563 00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 8: out how many motorcycles or how many bridges. You know, 564 00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 8: they're called captures. 565 00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,440 Speaker 5: I failed those quick. Quite that's the problem. 566 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:36,679 Speaker 8: Okay, they're preventing bots from you know, disrupting websites. But 567 00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:38,760 Speaker 8: a lot of people are saying that they're starting to 568 00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:42,120 Speaker 8: get a little bit more difficult, and they are because 569 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 8: they're the people who make them. They're trying to have 570 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,600 Speaker 8: to go after these bad actors who are figuring out 571 00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 8: how to crack them. So now they're getting even tougher 572 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,960 Speaker 8: to do. So, I know, I feel it failed the 573 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 8: motorcycle on. I was like, wait, that's a wait. You know, 574 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 8: it gets a little confusing, and so they're going to 575 00:27:56,720 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 8: be just the warning out there, they're going to be 576 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 8: getting a little bit more difficult. So as you're thinking 577 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 8: caps on when you go shop, on the shop anywhere else, 578 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 8: they're going to start to get. 579 00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:06,160 Speaker 5: A little bit harder. 580 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,440 Speaker 2: Lisa, let'll tell you thank you so much the newspapers 581 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 2: had today. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you 582 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 583 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 584 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 585 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 586 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:32,879 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 587 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 588 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.