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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Aisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner.

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Speaker 2: You can join Brian Curtis and myself for the stories,

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Speaker 2: making news and moving markets in the APAC region. You

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Speaker 2: can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your podcast

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Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now in our studios in Hong Kong for

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Speaker 3: a little bit more on US China relations is John Leu,

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Executive Editor in Beijing. John, thanks very much for

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Speaker 3: coming into the studios with us. So just as an

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Speaker 3: overview here for the audience, how would you actually how

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Speaker 3: would you characterize US genre relations at the moment, waxing

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Speaker 3: or waning.

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Speaker 4: I think they I would call them stable. But I

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Speaker 4: think the given how much how much tension there is,

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Speaker 4: how many issues that exist between the two countries, I

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Speaker 4: I would say there's always the danger things will get worse,

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Speaker 4: and I would say that the opportunity to improve ties

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Speaker 4: is a very very narrow window, and with the election

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Speaker 4: in the US coming up, I would say pretty difficult

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Speaker 4: to see a massive improvement anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: John you and I have talked about the issue of

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Speaker 2: overcapacity in the past. This is not only an issue

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Speaker 2: that the US has raised, but the European Union has

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Speaker 2: been very vocal about this as well. Is this being

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Speaker 2: taken seriously on the part of Beijing or do authorities

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Speaker 2: in China basically feel the only way that they can

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Speaker 2: recover from this economic malaise, this slump is to export,

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Speaker 2: you know, the country's way out of this through cheaper goods.

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Speaker 2: Is that really the line that the government in China

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Speaker 2: is taking.

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Speaker 4: I think that the I think the government in China

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Speaker 4: sees how important exports, you know, how important a role

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Speaker 4: exports have to play if the country wants the economy

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Speaker 4: to revive and for growth to go back to some

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Speaker 4: more in the you know, to be in the five

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Speaker 4: percent range, which they've made their target for twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 4: You know, Beijing is not going to agree about the

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Speaker 4: description about overcapacity, but I think there is you know,

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Speaker 4: I think there's a growing recognition that exports may not

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Speaker 4: be the way to go about it, and that trying

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Speaker 4: to put too much emphasis on exports is actually going

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Speaker 4: to cause more trouble than it's worth.

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Speaker 3: I think what you said right off the bat that

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Speaker 3: you know, things are sort of moving sideways almost in

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Speaker 3: US relations, not particularly good or bad. It makes a

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Speaker 3: lot of sense. It seems like the vitriol has dropped

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Speaker 3: out of the language. You haven't seen a lot of

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Speaker 3: hyperbole here. And also the Taiwan story, I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: still there, there's no question about it, but it seems

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Speaker 3: like the temperature has been turned down a little.

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Speaker 5: Do you agree?

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Speaker 4: I think the sideways description is at in terms of Taiwan.

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Speaker 4: I think you know, with the inauguration of light To

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Speaker 4: as president earlier last month, that reaction was relatively strong,

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Speaker 4: and I think you will see Beijing take a pretty

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Speaker 4: hard stance when it comes to anything they feel like

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Speaker 4: is an attempt to move the island towards independence. So

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Speaker 4: there is still a lot of risk there. I would say,

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Speaker 4: I don't think that that situation has calmed substantially.

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Speaker 3: But the past ten days has been sort of without

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Speaker 3: a lot of a lot of serious job owning.

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Speaker 5: Don't you think.

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Speaker 4: There was There was something really interesting happened yesterday, which

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Speaker 4: was Prime Minister Modi in India received on x a

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Speaker 4: congratulatory message from Latching, the President of Taiwan, and he

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Speaker 4: Mister Mody responded by saying he wanted, he hoped that

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Speaker 4: there could be an increased relationship between Taiwan and India

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Speaker 4: when it comes to trade and technology, and and Beijing

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Speaker 4: acted very quickly to condemn those comments with mister Modi,

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Speaker 4: we have to wait and see if that becomes bigger

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Speaker 4: or smaller or goes away. But I think the sensitivity

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Speaker 4: remains remains.

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Speaker 2: So you described the situation between China and the US

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Speaker 2: is kind of moving sideways right now. Let's call it

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Speaker 2: just a drift. I'm curious is some of that do

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Speaker 2: or a large part of it due to the fact

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Speaker 2: that we've got an election in November and it's unclear

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Speaker 2: at this point who Beijing will have to do business

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Speaker 2: with in early twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: I think the main motivation for Beijing right now is economics,

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Speaker 4: and Beijing Beijing one needs to keep its access to

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Speaker 4: markets in the US and Europe, just because what we

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Speaker 4: talked about before the importance of exports for economic recovery. Domestically,

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Speaker 4: the other issue is China needs foreign direct investment. They're

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Speaker 4: hoping that multinationals, be it Tesla or Apple or you know,

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Speaker 4: the various American companies who do lots of business. China

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Speaker 4: needs them not only to maintain their level of participation

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Speaker 4: in the Chinese economy, hopefully to put even more money

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Speaker 4: into China, and so trying to keep a lid on

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Speaker 4: US China tensions helps them do that.

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Speaker 2: I'm imagining that would be pretty difficult under a Trump

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Speaker 2: administration to hope for more foreign direct investment from the US.

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Speaker 2: AM I wrong on that.

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Speaker 4: I think most people in Beijing would agree with you

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Speaker 4: on that, especially given the rhetoric from mister Trump and

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Speaker 4: the campaign talking about sixty percent tariffs across the board

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Speaker 4: and tariffying Chinese companies who're manufacturing in Mexico. I think

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Speaker 4: that is a real concern for the Chinese government, and

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Speaker 4: I think if there was a Trump administration that came

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Speaker 4: into power in January of next year, that the relationship

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Speaker 4: would get pretty rocky, at least at the start.

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Speaker 3: In some other areas of our coverage, we mentioned that

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Speaker 3: the South Johna Morning Post has a story today saying

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Speaker 3: that for emigrants in China, there's a real fear of

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Speaker 3: missing out. There's kind of a rush to move overseas.

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Speaker 3: Now it's either an how or never, saying that the

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Speaker 3: middle class with the means to move abroad see the

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Speaker 3: window kind of closing as countries titan immigration policies. I

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Speaker 3: wouldn't imagine that these are massive numbers, but it is.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of an interesting side area of coverage.

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Speaker 4: I think the economic the disparity between economic performance that

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Speaker 4: we've seen in the United States especially and what we've

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Speaker 4: seen in China has has been motivational for people thinking

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Speaker 4: about immigrating to the US and overseas.

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Speaker 3: So more of this slowing economy than politically.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a combination of everything, right. I think

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Speaker 4: if the economics, if the economy is growing at some

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Speaker 4: tremendous rate, I think people would be more overlooking. The

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Speaker 4: political situation might be more appetizing or you know, amendable

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Speaker 4: for people. And but the fact that the economy is bad,

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Speaker 4: there's less opportunity and the political situation is difficult. I

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Speaker 4: think that's a double whammy.

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Speaker 2: Is the government feeling greater urgency now given the kind

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Speaker 2: of the stagnation that we're seeing economically to really kind

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Speaker 2: of put some of the policies that have been debated

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Speaker 2: that have been talked about put much more of that

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Speaker 2: to work.

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Speaker 4: So I think there is a real recognition in Beijing

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Speaker 4: that the economy needs support. There's no doubt about that.

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Speaker 4: You've seen that with the money the Central Bank is

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Speaker 4: providing for local governments to buy empty apartments, all of

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Speaker 4: the fiscal measures that China's taken. But at the same time,

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Speaker 4: I think China, the Chinese leadership also prioritizes national security,

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Speaker 4: and there is a real concern that the United States

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Speaker 4: is trying to contain China, taking actions to undermine China's development,

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Speaker 4: and so there's a real worry in Beijing about you know,

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Speaker 4: how secure Beijing is and its ability to project power,

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Speaker 4: especially when it comes to Taiwan, and so these things

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Speaker 4: are sometimes in conflict with one another, and I think

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Speaker 4: that's what you see, both trying to achieve economic growth

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Speaker 4: but also trying to achieve these national security aims, and

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Speaker 4: those two running into each other at times.

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Speaker 3: In terms of the stimulus and trying to rescue the economy.

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Speaker 3: Do you still see not very much likelihood of one

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Speaker 3: fell swoop is sort of shock and awe moved. Do

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Speaker 3: you think it'll continue to be incremental?

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Speaker 4: I think incremental is by default the way the Chinese

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Speaker 4: government goes about almost everything. I think you have seen

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Speaker 4: the magnitude of the response being ratcheted up very steadily

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Speaker 4: and continuously. I think this what Beijing is doing in

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Speaker 4: terms of real estate, taking central bank money to effectively

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Speaker 4: provide demand for empty apartments. That is something I think

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Speaker 4: would have been unthinkable a few years ago. I think

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Speaker 4: if the economy needs more support, you will, We will

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Speaker 4: get more support from Beijing. It will just come very slowly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, John, thanks very much on Liu joining us.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg executive editor in Beijing. China's exports will probably jump

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Speaker 3: in May, posting some pretty broad gains. I'm Brian Curtis

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Speaker 3: Long with Doug Christin. We bring in James Mager, Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: senior China reporter who eats this stuff for breakfast. James,

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Speaker 3: It's very seldom that we see such a big gap

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Speaker 3: between what the consensus estimates are on a Bloomberg survey

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Speaker 3: and what Bloomberg Economics is estimating. But they've got double

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Speaker 3: digits here, gains at twelve point one percent the consensus

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Speaker 3: five point seven percent. What sort of accounts for the discrepancy.

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Speaker 6: I think the BlueBag economics folks are expecting part of that.

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Speaker 6: The difference there is to be sort of bait effects,

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Speaker 6: and there was a drump last year in May, and

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Speaker 6: so they're expecting a real pullback from that, you know,

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Speaker 6: for a real expansion from that. They're also of really

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Speaker 6: focusing on the strength we've seen recently and other exports

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Speaker 6: in Asia, South Korean exports, Taiwanese exports. There's been real

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Speaker 6: really strong demand for chip exports from those two places

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Speaker 6: and they got back. I expect that that's also going

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Speaker 6: to pull up or pull along exports from China. One

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Speaker 6: other thing that we'll be looking at also is how

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Speaker 6: much how much sort of exports you know from China

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Speaker 6: of steel and excavators and other things which are not

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Speaker 6: being used in the housing sector, which is still struggling domestically.

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Speaker 5: And that's you know what, that sort of weakness in

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Speaker 5: China is underpinning.

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Speaker 6: That strength and the strength and exports because Chinese companies

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Speaker 6: are basically having to sell overseas instead of being al

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Speaker 6: sell domestically.

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Speaker 5: So I think those are the kind of.

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Speaker 6: Factors that everyone's expecting to really drive a good number

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Speaker 6: in May.

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Speaker 2: Is this a type of industrial policy? Do you think

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Speaker 2: that Beijing is favoring to be more reliant even in

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Speaker 2: the current environment, on the export equation or the export

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Speaker 2: side of the equation, rather than trying to fortify domestic demand.

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Speaker 7: I think the way I look at it is China

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Speaker 7: is trying to drive its dominance of specific sectors, and

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Speaker 7: that is the domestic market is not caught up with

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Speaker 7: the amount they're.

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Speaker 6: Able to produce of those things now, so especially on

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Speaker 6: things like batteries and evs. You know, the government has

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Speaker 6: put a lot of money, in a lot of effort,

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Speaker 6: and a lot of protectionism into making sure that China

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Speaker 6: is able to Chinese companies are able to dominate the

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Speaker 6: Chinese market, and now that is because Chinese isn't able

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Speaker 6: to the Chinese consumers aren't able to take all of

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Speaker 6: those cars.

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Speaker 5: Some of that is going overseas.

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Speaker 6: I think also part of this is, as I said,

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Speaker 6: is just caused by the housing slump. This is not

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Speaker 6: like a policy that you know, the government did try

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Speaker 6: and pop the housing or did pop the housing bubble.

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Speaker 5: They didn't, I think, minute to become this bad.

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Speaker 6: But this slump has meant that the existing sort of

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Speaker 6: production capacity is now having to flow as as well.

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Speaker 6: So it's probably this is an industrial policy the government

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Speaker 6: is driving partly it's just the domestic weakness, and as

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Speaker 6: you say, you know, the government is not looking to

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Speaker 6: really stimulate domestic demands to sort of take all of

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Speaker 6: these goods.

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Speaker 3: Well, if we look at some other data, the Japan

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Speaker 3: manufacturing PMI was was pretty positive in the month of May,

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Speaker 3: or at least it was positive, and South Korean exports

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Speaker 3: rose nine percent in May. So it does raise this

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Speaker 3: question about external demand. That's that's probably what most people

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Speaker 3: outside of China really care about. Do we see that

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Speaker 3: external demands as pretty solid or have to wait and see.

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Speaker 6: I think both Japan and Career benefiting at least someone

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Speaker 6: from their weak currencies. So you know, the the yuan

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Speaker 6: and sorry, the yen and the want are pretty weak

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Speaker 6: against the dollar right now. And as as I said,

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Speaker 6: you know, there is a massive there's been a massive

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Speaker 6: spike in demand for high end chips, so that's benefiting

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Speaker 6: South Korea as well.

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Speaker 5: So you know, companies like Navidiar and know the AI

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Speaker 5: boom in.

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Speaker 6: The US is really driving record exports from Korea and

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Speaker 6: also record exports from Taiwan. There is a broader sort

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Speaker 6: of industrial strength for a broader sort of recovery and

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Speaker 6: trade happening especially across Asia, and I think that's going

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Speaker 6: to help benefit China as well.

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Speaker 2: So, James, when you look broadly at the entire country

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Speaker 2: of China, how is economic activity being distributed right now?

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Speaker 5: I think it's pretty patchy.

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Speaker 6: There are certain places that are that are doing better,

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Speaker 6: and there is and there are lots of places that

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Speaker 6: are not doing well. It's the places that we're more

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Speaker 6: reliant on housing demand and housing construction demand, especially you know,

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Speaker 6: in the years leading up to twenty twenty one, that

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Speaker 6: are now.

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Speaker 5: Not doing as well.

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Speaker 6: Obviously, if you especially if you look at places like

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Speaker 6: the northeast of China, where you have you know, real

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Speaker 6: like quite quite deep population of falls, plus you have

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Speaker 6: you know, it was already pretty weak economic environment environment

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Speaker 6: up there, and then you add into that this housing

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Speaker 6: slow and housing construction slub. I think there are those

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Speaker 6: kinds of places are really struggling. You know, the places

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Speaker 6: on the eastern seaboard that are more export focused, that

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Speaker 6: have a better stronger account of me and they're not

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Speaker 6: seeing those kind of deep population declines.

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Speaker 5: I think those places still continue to do better.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the base effects will play into this. What

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Speaker 3: about seasonal patterns.

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Speaker 6: May is generally a good time, Like the middle of

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Speaker 6: the year is generally a good time for trade. It's

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Speaker 6: really weak in the first quarter because of the lunar year,

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Speaker 6: and obviously and there's a lot.

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Speaker 5: Of sort of people export a lot more towards the end.

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Speaker 6: Of the year to get into the Christmas season overseas,

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Speaker 6: and then the first quarter of the year is usually

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Speaker 6: pretty weak. So there should be some kind of rebound

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Speaker 6: that we will see you May, June, July, August, that

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Speaker 6: sort of period. And you know our reporting with the

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Speaker 6: Canton Fair earlier this year, which is the biggest export

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Speaker 6: trade fair in the world, so you know, Chinese companies

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Speaker 6: were saying that they were seeing a better so we

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Speaker 6: were seeing more demand, we're seeing more orders, so there

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Speaker 6: is being an increase in that.

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Speaker 5: I think the thing to be aware of to be.

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Speaker 6: Aware of though, is that these numbers are probably being

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Speaker 6: driven by a real slump in Chinese prices. So Chinese

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Speaker 6: export prices are folding, you know, the country's in inflation.

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Speaker 6: This is driving down the value of these exports. So

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Speaker 6: even yeah, yeah, so that's and that's probably the reason

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Speaker 6: why it strong.

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Speaker 3: James, thank you, James Maker, Bloomberg Senior China reporter Lauren Sidel,

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Speaker 3: Banker economist at it R Economics. Lauren, it feels like

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Speaker 3: we might be close to an inflection point here on jobs.

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Speaker 3: So we have the jobs report coming. City Group's house

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Speaker 3: view is for just one hundred and forty thousand. That's

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Speaker 3: a long way from the two hundred and twenty nine

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Speaker 3: thousand average that we've seen over the past eleven months,

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Speaker 3: and it's it's also a long way away from the

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Speaker 3: consensus expectation of one hundred and eighty thousand new jobs.

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Speaker 3: I'm guessing, see what you're thoughts are on this, I'm

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Speaker 3: guessing that any number from about one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 3: five thousand to two hundred thousand would be reasonably comfortable

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Speaker 3: for both the Fed and the markets.

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Speaker 5: What say you?

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Speaker 1: Yes, thank you so much? I agree.

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Speaker 8: It would take a big surprise, either to the upside

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Speaker 8: or to the downside, to materially.

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Speaker 1: Sway the path that the FED is on.

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Speaker 8: The Labor market has been incredibly tight but cooling. Unless

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Speaker 8: we see a real aberration in this report tomorrow, I

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Speaker 8: do expect that cooling trend to persist. We got a

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Speaker 8: signal earlier this week from the JOLT survey that the

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Speaker 8: number of new job openings has decreased.

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Speaker 1: So while the.

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Speaker 8: Labor market is still tight showing some signs of pullback,

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Speaker 8: that's giving the FED confidence that wage inflation will take

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Speaker 8: us down to that well toward that target two percent

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Speaker 8: inflation range. I don't expect we need to reach two

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Speaker 8: percent inflation before the Fed makes their rate cuts.

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Speaker 2: And today's data, when you look at the labor market,

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Speaker 2: was a little on the weak side, jobless claims up

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Speaker 2: above estimates, and labor cost increased by less than previously reported.

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Speaker 2: So is your expectation here that we're going to get

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Speaker 2: to two quarter point rate cuts between now and the

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Speaker 2: end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yes, all of the.

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Speaker 8: Data that we've seen to this point is certainly moving

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Speaker 8: in that direction. Again, the ECB, no surprise, they moved

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Speaker 8: sooner than the Fed.

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Speaker 1: I think September is still a.

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Speaker 8: Very likely outcome for the first cut from the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 8: So fifty basis points this year seems to be a

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Speaker 8: pretty mainstream expectation.

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Speaker 3: Do you think that what happened to the ECB will

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Speaker 3: sort of put the Fed on warning a little bit?

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Speaker 3: This is a little embarrassing because the ECB had all

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Speaker 3: but told markets. You know it was going to cut

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Speaker 3: by twenty five basis points. Then all of a sudden

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Speaker 3: it gets some inflation data that's pretty onerous in a sense,

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Speaker 3: and it even has to raise its inflation targets while

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Speaker 3: it's cutting rates. I mean, that's a little embarrassing, isn't it.

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Speaker 3: The Fed does not want to be put in that position.

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Speaker 1: No, they do not.

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Speaker 8: I agree completely, But there's also something of an acceptance

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Speaker 8: from these central banks that, again, we don't have to

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Speaker 8: be at two percent inflation. The fact that we've come

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Speaker 8: down so much from our peak inflation levels is showing

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Speaker 8: that easing. And in Europe, especially where they've seen a

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Speaker 8: pullback in real economic outcomes, the ECB didn't want to

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Speaker 8: be waiting for that two percent right before they gave

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Speaker 8: a little bit of stimulative effect to hopefully pull that

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Speaker 8: economy out of recession sooner than later.

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Speaker 2: And I'm wondering, I do, yeah, whether when you raise

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Speaker 2: an inflation forecast like that, that there is a little

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Speaker 2: bit of jawboning of the market that you don't want

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Speaker 2: the market to get too far over at skis in

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Speaker 2: a situation like that, when you're in entering a cycle

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Speaker 2: of easing absolutely, and.

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Speaker 1: I think that that has been very careful about that.

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Speaker 8: Chair Powell has been very intentional time after time and

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Speaker 8: saying they will be data dependent, that nothing is set

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Speaker 8: in stone. So that's why we do think September is

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Speaker 8: still on the table, but there is a lot of

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Speaker 8: data to come out between now and then.

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Speaker 3: So we talked about the wide range of expectation and

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Speaker 3: also that markets send the FED would probably be comfortable

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Speaker 3: with a fairly broad band there. But if I had

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Speaker 3: to guess between the two on whether or not you

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Speaker 3: know good news is good news or you know good

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Speaker 3: news is bad news, would I would say that the

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Speaker 3: market would prefer to see a well supported economy here,

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Speaker 3: so maybe a little airing on the upside would be

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Speaker 3: would be good for the markets. Is that your view

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Speaker 3: as well?

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Speaker 8: You know, the wrinkle with that analysis at this juncture

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Speaker 8: in the business cycle is that interest rates were so

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Speaker 8: low for so long. The fact that we do have

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Speaker 8: rates persistently higher, as we still do and will very

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Speaker 8: likely over this summer. It's just causing the decision points

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Speaker 8: in a lot of companies investment mindsets.

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Speaker 1: To be different.

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Speaker 8: Now, again, my base case is for fifty basis points

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Speaker 8: of cut this year.

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Speaker 1: That is not going to materially move the needle.

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Speaker 8: If you are a first time home buyer looking at

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Speaker 8: your mortgage rate, fifty basis points is not make or break.

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Speaker 8: But I do think sentiment wise, perhaps emotionally, there is

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Speaker 8: something to getting those first rate cuts. But I agree

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Speaker 8: with you, it's a topsy turvy world where bad news

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Speaker 8: is good news.

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Speaker 2: Does it surprise you that the yield curve is still

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Speaker 2: inverted the degree to which it still is. I mean,

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Speaker 2: we've got what fifty basis points and spread between the

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Speaker 2: two and the ten.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that is a bit surprising.

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Speaker 8: We have done the analysis and typically the inversion in

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Speaker 8: the yield curve does portend a GDP recession, but that

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Speaker 8: likelihood in our analysis was only in the eighty I

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Speaker 8: believe its about eighty eight percent range, so.

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Speaker 1: Not a foregone conclusion.

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Speaker 8: I do think the consumer, with these higher wages, with

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Speaker 8: this tight labor market, is propping up GDP. About two

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Speaker 8: thirds of GDP is accounted for by consumer spending, so

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Speaker 8: that's why we're seeing a little bit of an abnormal

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Speaker 8: but not unprecedented outcome in that regard.

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Speaker 3: We've had some fears of late that growth could be

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Speaker 3: falling off pretty rapidly. But it seems like with the

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Speaker 3: tenure yield at you know, right around four thirty like that,

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Speaker 3: that's kind of telling you that the bond market, at

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Speaker 3: least at the moment, is not seeing, you know, a

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Speaker 3: lot of weakness. Where would we I mean, would it

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Speaker 3: take something like three handle maybe three seventy five or

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Speaker 3: so for people to start really seriously worrying about a

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Speaker 3: fall off in growth.

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Speaker 8: Sure, a lot of the leading indicators that I'm following

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Speaker 8: are showing signs of life, showing green shoots. Again, I

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Speaker 8: do think it's a twenty twenty five event, so I

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Speaker 8: don't want to be too dogmatic about the timing, but

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Speaker 8: leading indicators showing us that there is rise around the corner.

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Speaker 1: Again.

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Speaker 8: The consumer is the floor to this point of the cycle.

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Speaker 8: That's supporting much more so the manufacturing sector, the industrial sector.

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Speaker 8: So that broad based support, even if our sentiment doesn't

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Speaker 8: reflect it, even if we don't always really feel it.

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Speaker 8: Our wages are still outpacing inflation. We are still in

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Speaker 8: generally a good position. This is no two thousand and

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Speaker 8: six where we're overlevered. We have that bad debt and

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Speaker 8: too much of it, So I think our consumer is

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Speaker 8: the thing that's giving these analyst confidence and to some

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Speaker 8: degree the bond market. That broad based strength will be

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Speaker 8: felt throughout most industries.

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Speaker 2: So, Lauren, let's do a little bit of walk about

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Speaker 2: economics here in Manchester, New Hampshire, right, Can you give

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Speaker 2: me a sense of how well the economy is performing

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Speaker 2: there anecdotally? What do things look like?

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Speaker 8: Yes, that's correct, Southern New Hampshire for context, about an

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Speaker 8: hour north of Boston. Everyone always asked me, is New

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Speaker 8: Hampshire just a province of Vermont. So the economy here

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Speaker 8: it's a little bit more diversified. We're not just in

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Speaker 8: Maples Syrup, but we are seeing those signs of stalling.

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Speaker 8: The housing market especially is very tight up here. We

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Speaker 8: nationwide have a lot of shortage right of underbuilding, so

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Speaker 8: some vacancy and supply issues. We feel that pretty acutely

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Speaker 8: here in New Hampshire, with a shortage of a afordable housing.

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Speaker 1: But the economy is humming along.

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Speaker 8: People still go out to restaurants as much as we

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Speaker 8: Burtanical New Englanders do like to turn in early.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. The craft beer is pretty good up in that

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Speaker 3: part of the world too. Yeah, yeah, thinking about that

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Speaker 3: here pardon me, it's morning time, but still, Lauren, thank

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Speaker 3: you so much for joining us. Lauren sidel Baker economists

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Speaker 3: at ITR Economics.

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Speaker 2: This has been the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you

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Speaker 2: the stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific.

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Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to get more

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Speaker 2: episodes of this and other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to

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Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen,

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Speaker 2: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Business app.