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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

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Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordernt. Join us each day

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Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

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Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

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Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

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Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin the sour

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Speaker 2: with stock Steady. Liz An sanders a child swat, wanting

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Speaker 2: the market maybe too top heavy. Right in the following

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Speaker 2: investor's face of risks, the market breath narrows and performance

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Speaker 2: becomes overly dependent on a few dominant stocks. This dynamic

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Speaker 2: can distort perceptions of market health. Lizan joins us now

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Speaker 2: for more. Let's Ank and Mornic coome morning. Good to

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Speaker 2: see you and welcome to New York. Thank you very much,

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Speaker 2: thank you for coming in. Let's talk about that quote

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Speaker 2: right there and whether you believe we're becoming more or

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Speaker 2: less dependent on just a handful of stocks.

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Speaker 3: At the moment, we're becoming.

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Speaker 4: Still very dependent on a smaller handful of stocks. Though,

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Speaker 4: So if you look at the cohort of the Magnificent seven,

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Speaker 4: just to pick a cohort as opposed to say, the

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Speaker 4: top ten, only four of those stocks now are at

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Speaker 4: performing the S and P five hundred, and the best

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Speaker 4: among them no surprise, in Video is only the forty

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Speaker 4: seventh best performing stock in the S and P five hundred,

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Speaker 4: meaning forty six stocks within that index have better performance

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Speaker 4: than Nvidia, and Vidia is the largest contributor to cap

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Speaker 4: weighted S and P gains, but it's not the best performer.

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Speaker 4: The mag seven are all in the NASDAQ. In Vidia,

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Speaker 4: as a number one performer among the mag seven, is

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Speaker 4: ranked I think six hundred and thirtieth within the NASDAK.

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Speaker 4: So I think we're starting to see more dispersion even

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Speaker 4: among these concentrated cohorts.

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Speaker 5: You've also got.

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Speaker 4: Correlation within the S and P has come down, dispersion

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Speaker 4: widening out. So I actually think it's not a bad

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Speaker 4: backdrop from a.

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Speaker 5: Stock pick perspective.

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Speaker 4: It levels the plane field a little bit more for

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Speaker 4: active relative capacity.

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Speaker 2: Let's build on that just a little bit more so

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Speaker 2: Kristin beddley A says he was with us about fifteen

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Speaker 2: minutes ago, and she said, for long term investors, stick

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Speaker 2: with a camp Whited index. That's the way to go.

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Speaker 2: What are the risks around that given what you just said, Well.

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Speaker 4: You've got the concentration problem embedded in that index. With

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Speaker 4: the ten largest names representing forty percent of the index,

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Speaker 4: that's an all time high. Even the top five names

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Speaker 4: represent close to thirty percent of the index. So you

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Speaker 4: are you're certainly guaranteeing the cap weighted return on the upside,

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Speaker 4: but there's a downside to it.

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Speaker 5: And now memories tend to be short.

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Speaker 4: All you have to do is look back to earlier

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Speaker 4: this year, the mid February to early April bear market

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Speaker 4: in the case of the Nasdaq, near bear market in

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Speaker 4: the case of the S and P. But many of

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Speaker 4: those stacks stocks were the drags on performance. So it

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Speaker 4: does work in the other way. And we always say

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Speaker 4: to our investors pretty much all eleven point two trillion

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Speaker 4: dollars of our client assets are individual investors, and leaving

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Speaker 4: aside the take a passive approach and index to the SMP,

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Speaker 4: you don't have to take the same concentration risk. If

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Speaker 4: you're an institution and you're benchmarked against the cap weighted

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Speaker 4: SMP on a quarterly basis, you are at the mercy

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Speaker 4: of the construction of the indexes. But if you're an

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Speaker 4: individual investor, you're not being benchmarked against the SMP on

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Speaker 4: a quarterly basis, you can take more of a stock

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Speaker 4: picking approach and not take that risk of having such

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Speaker 4: a concentrated portfolio.

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Speaker 1: Isn't that concentration of feature not a bug? And I

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Speaker 1: say this at a time when we're talking about the

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Speaker 1: potential for an outperformance of the S and P five

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Speaker 1: hundred and the Nasdaq even with a labor economy that

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Speaker 1: is questionable right now.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's a feature in keeping the cap weighted index

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Speaker 4: returns high. But here's a stat just since the April

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Speaker 4: eighth closing low, SMP has not even had a two

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Speaker 4: percent drawn down over that period of time, continual record highs.

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Speaker 4: But the average member within the SMP has had a

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Speaker 4: fourteen percent draw down since April eighth. The average member

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Speaker 4: within the Nasdaq has had a thirty two percent draw

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Speaker 4: down just since April eighth. So there's a lot of

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Speaker 4: churn in rotation under the surface. It's a feature in

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Speaker 4: that all you need is a few megacap stocks to

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Speaker 4: bring those cap weighted indexes. I just think the fuller story,

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Speaker 4: not the real story, but the fuller story is told

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Speaker 4: under the surface of these cap weighted indexes.

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Speaker 1: John was mentioning Kristin Bitterly, who is just here, and

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Speaker 1: she is talking about the cap weighted and not necessarily

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Speaker 1: the broadening outrage doesn't necessarily see that gaining traction. Do

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Speaker 1: you disagree based on the idea that you have seen

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Speaker 1: this draw down and the average stock outside of that

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Speaker 1: magnificent seven, and that those companies potentially could be the

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Speaker 1: most beneficially affected by a rate cutting cycle that a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are expecting.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's certainly the macro fundamental reason why small caps

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Speaker 4: caught a bid, particularly given that the real surge was

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Speaker 4: tied to Powell's Jackson Hole speech. I think one way

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Speaker 4: to think about the broadening out the fact that Russell

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Speaker 4: two thousand finally hit a new all time high. Last

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Speaker 4: time prior to this one had occurred was twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 4: is I think staying up in quality still makes a

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Speaker 4: lot of sense, and one piece of advice that we

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Speaker 4: provide to investors not to buy an index tracking but

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Speaker 4: if you use index as a source for ideas, Russell

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Speaker 4: two thousand is still on the lower quality end of

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Speaker 4: the spectrum, given that forty percent of the stocks or

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Speaker 4: some combination of nonprofitable or delbie companies, whereas the SMP

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Speaker 4: uses a profitability filter in constructing their SMP six hundred,

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Speaker 4: so it's inherently a higher quality index.

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Speaker 5: And in fact, looking ahead.

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Speaker 4: SMP six hundred earnings outlook versus s and P five

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Speaker 4: hundred earnings outlook, the former has a much better trajectory

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Speaker 4: mid to high twenty percent range in terms of twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty six earnings versus more in the kind.

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Speaker 5: Of mid teens for the SMP five hundred.

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Speaker 6: Correlate is the rustle these small caps that do well

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Speaker 6: with how quickly the FED continues on a cutting cycle.

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Speaker 4: That I think would be a risk that the performance

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Speaker 4: trend does not persist, is if the FED has to

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Speaker 4: cut short the cutting cycle. Not dissimilar to what happened

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Speaker 4: last fall. And you know, the one thing that's interesting

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Speaker 4: is we've seen that edging up on the part of

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Speaker 4: the long end very much in keeping with what happened

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Speaker 4: last year when the fed cup by one hundred BIPs

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Speaker 4: and the tenure went up by the same amount. Mortgage

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Speaker 4: rates went up by eighty basis points.

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Speaker 6: When you mentioned these cap weighted indexes, they're so sector

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Speaker 6: focused and concentrated. So isn't it doing the opposite of

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Speaker 6: what investors wants? Where are people diversifying again?

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Speaker 5: I think the active approach.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a reason why active ETFs, the growth

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Speaker 4: rate in active ETFs is higher than the growth rate

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Speaker 4: in passive ETFs. Now, part of the reason why it's

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Speaker 4: a higher growth rate is it's coming off a lower

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Speaker 4: base because passive ETFs been much more popular. But I

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Speaker 4: think that is a bit of a tell that there

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Speaker 4: are investors looking for opportunities outside of just the cap

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Speaker 4: dominance within these cap weighted indexes.

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Speaker 2: Does this feel bubbly to you? You've seen it all,

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Speaker 2: let's finish that.

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Speaker 4: I have seen it all. How does it feel almost

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Speaker 4: forty years doing this? I'd say the big difference, probably

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Speaker 4: the most important difference between now in the late nineteen

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Speaker 4: nineties is there's more there there in terms of you know,

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Speaker 4: massive cash flow generation. There's actually a denominator in the

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Speaker 4: valuation equation. Now, there was no denominator in the valuation equation.

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Speaker 4: I mean we all look now through the benefit of

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Speaker 4: hindsight and say, boy, was that just so silly? And

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Speaker 4: you know the attaching of dot com to companies that

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Speaker 4: had nothing to do with that.

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Speaker 5: So there is more there there.

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Speaker 4: But again going back to that period just this year

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Speaker 4: mid February to early April, when you had the deep

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Speaker 4: seek news and concern about whether the massive amount of

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Speaker 4: spend was indeed a protective moat built around these hyperscalers.

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Speaker 4: I think that we can go through valuation adjustments, necessary

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Speaker 4: valuation adjustments, or even just periods where you get about

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Speaker 4: a profit taking that is distinguished from what ultimately happened

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Speaker 4: in ninety nine two thousand. I think it's a right

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Speaker 4: tail risk for the market. Maybe with similar probability is

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Speaker 4: what would be the left tail risk, which I think

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Speaker 4: the leftail risk is a recession, which I don't think

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Speaker 4: is priced into the market. But these are much higher

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Speaker 4: quality companies.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us more Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.

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Speaker 2: Joining us surround the table, the former Deputy Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 2: Wally at a m I Wally got to see us, sir.

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Speaker 3: It's great to see you as well.

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Speaker 2: You co author a piece recently in Foreign Affairs, the

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Speaker 2: title of which readers follows, The world economy was already broken,

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Speaker 2: but there is a better way to fix it.

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Speaker 3: Can we address the broken piece? First? What's broken about?

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Speaker 3: It's it? What was broken? Lretic At the.

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Speaker 7: Core of what was broken was China's use of anti

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Speaker 7: competitive behavior to manipulate the global trading system. And this

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Speaker 7: is exactly what needs to be addressed. And I think

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Speaker 7: President Trump has a choice. He can try and do

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Speaker 7: what former presidents, including himself, has done, which is negotiate

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Speaker 7: a bilateral deal with the Chinese, or he can work

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Speaker 7: together with our allies and partners to put together a

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Speaker 7: set of policies that will hold China accountable and lower

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Speaker 7: tariffs on each other. And I think that's the choice

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Speaker 7: that the president faces at the moment.

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Speaker 6: John mentioned this earlier, and you mentioned it in your

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Speaker 6: piece about China basically dumping in other markets, especially since

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Speaker 6: the barrier of entry has gone up so high in

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Speaker 6: the United States. Isn't that going to force countries like

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Speaker 6: what Mexico is attempting to do, force countries to take

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Speaker 6: on China themselves and basically do what you're saying a

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Speaker 6: collective unity against China.

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Speaker 7: I do think that gives the President an opportunity because

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Speaker 7: if you're in Southeast Asia to day, you're in Europe today,

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Speaker 7: you're seeing Chinese over capacity wash over your shores, ruining

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Speaker 7: your manufacturings sector, and the question is what can you do?

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Speaker 7: And alone it's hard for them to stand up to China.

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Speaker 7: Working together with a large alley like the United States

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Speaker 7: as possible, but ultimately, the thing that I found with

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Speaker 7: all these countries is that they move when there's a leader,

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Speaker 7: and the United States needs to be that leader. So

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Speaker 7: if the President calls on them to work together to

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Speaker 7: hold China accountable, I think it's possible. But left to

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Speaker 7: their own devices, it's really hard to stand up to

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Speaker 7: a big country like China or the United States.

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Speaker 6: The Biden adminstration tried a multilateral approach and it didn't work.

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Speaker 7: I think the difference now is that the President has

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Speaker 7: changed the global trading system by putting tariffs in place

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Speaker 7: that have reordered things, and it while it's created a

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Speaker 7: lot of challenges, including headwinds here for consumers and for

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Speaker 7: the economy, it now creates an opportunity because something new

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Speaker 7: has to happen, And that's what we talk about in

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Speaker 7: the piece that ultimately, now the President has the opportunity

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Speaker 7: either say that we can all work together to make

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Speaker 7: sure that China's anti competitive behavior stops, or we can

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Speaker 7: try and negotiate China unilaterally. The unilateral approach hasn't worked

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Speaker 7: in the past at.

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Speaker 1: This point, though, So how do you work together with

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Speaker 1: other countries when everyone is skeptical of one another and

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Speaker 1: essentially you're forcing them to take a side Because ultimately,

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Speaker 1: a lot of countries, as you've mentioned, are scared of

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Speaker 1: China just as much as they're scared of the United States.

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Speaker 7: I think you're right, there's a great deal of skepticism

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Speaker 7: out there, but when you look at the global economy,

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Speaker 7: it's still concentrated in the hands of countries that should

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Speaker 7: be our closest allies. The G seven make up almost

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Speaker 7: fifty percent of the global economy. If we were to act

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Speaker 7: together only the G seven, it would be a large

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Speaker 7: enough block to put real pressure on the Chinese. So

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Speaker 7: we're going for the President to start with the countries

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Speaker 7: that we're closest with, and ultimately the goal has to

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Speaker 7: be that we create an economy that not only works

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Speaker 7: better for the United States, which it should, but works

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Speaker 7: better for other economies also because the more trade that

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Speaker 7: you do if you're a country, the less age you're

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Speaker 7: going to need in the future. So the key now

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Speaker 7: for the president is to talk to these countries who

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Speaker 7: ultimately need the United States, frankly because we are one

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Speaker 7: of their biggest consumers in the world, to try and

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Speaker 7: work with them to put pressure on the Chinese, because

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Speaker 7: the unuilateral approach previously at least hasn't worked.

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Speaker 1: I just been wondering how much the world order has

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Speaker 1: already changed and already shifted away from the United States

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Speaker 1: being able to play the role in the way that

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Speaker 1: it could have even a.

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Speaker 5: Couple of years ago.

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Speaker 1: The idea, for example, of the Ukraine Russia war and

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Speaker 1: the repatriation potentially of some of the holdings, and how

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Speaker 1: much that's shifted foreign currencies, foreign governments to buy gold

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Speaker 1: and diversify away from the dollar.

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Speaker 5: Is it too late?

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Speaker 7: I think everybody always says that, But one in twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty two, I was looking at what should we do

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Speaker 7: with regard to Russia when they were thinking about invading Ukraine,

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Speaker 7: and the Russians had moved a bunch of their assets,

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Speaker 7: but more than eighty eight percent of Russian bank transactions

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Speaker 7: on one side was still the dollar. It's really hard

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Speaker 7: to get away from the US economy. We are the

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Speaker 7: biggest economy in the world, We're the biggest trading economy,

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Speaker 7: and while that is shifting over time, I think this

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Speaker 7: is the moment for us to try and make sure

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Speaker 7: that we build a system that works better for us

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Speaker 7: going future. If we wait too long, and we say

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Speaker 7: this in the piece, China's use of antiq competitive behavior

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Speaker 7: will fundamentally have changed the global economy in a way

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Speaker 7: that will make it harder for the US to win

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Speaker 7: going forward, and not just the US, but for other

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Speaker 7: economies as well. That's why what we do over the

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Speaker 7: next few years is critical.

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Speaker 6: While you've been in the room, the President truths a

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Speaker 6: lot about how annoyed he is with Europe that they

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Speaker 6: continuously buy Russian fossil fuels. It's been very hard for

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Speaker 6: them to really divest away.

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Speaker 5: How difficult it is to deal with the Europeans.

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Speaker 7: It is hard, but I think the US has a

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Speaker 7: lot of leverage here, especially over one of the countries

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Speaker 7: that he's doing this, Hungary, who is a big purchaser,

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Speaker 7: and I think fundamentally one of the things we've got

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Speaker 7: to do is work with the europe to both and

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Speaker 7: their purchases of Russian energy. We did a lot to

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Speaker 7: do that in terms of providing Europe with LNG to

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Speaker 7: replace Russian energy, but we've also got to take actions

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Speaker 7: not only against India but against China, who is a

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Speaker 7: huge purchaser but also a huge seller of the goods

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Speaker 7: to Russia that they need to build the weapons they

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Speaker 7: want for this war in Ukraine.

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Speaker 2: Sight with US Mulplinpex Savanna's coming up off to this, John,

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Speaker 2: I guess now to discuss the head of Investment Solutions

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Speaker 2: at City kristin Biddley Christin, good morning.

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Speaker 5: Good morning, how are you so it's been too long.

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Speaker 2: We've got some rain cuts or at least once a

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Speaker 2: far the prospect of more to come. What kind of

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Speaker 2: activity is that I'm looking for your clients and what

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Speaker 2: are you advocating for them to do.

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Speaker 3: At the moment.

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Speaker 8: I think for right now, this was largely anticipated and expected,

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Speaker 8: so I think if we would have had any change,

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Speaker 8: then there would have been changes in the portfolio. But

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Speaker 8: for right now, we're sticking to our guns and staying

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Speaker 8: fully invested. We're balanced across fixing come inequities with equality

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Speaker 8: buyers and also leaning towards the US market as well,

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Speaker 8: And so for US, there's no real change unless we

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Speaker 8: see a deterioration in the employment backdrop, or unless we

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Speaker 8: see inflation start to accelerate.

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Speaker 2: For people sitting in cash at the front end of

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Speaker 2: the curve and looking at where FED funds is, which

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Speaker 2: is still north of the curve all the way out

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Speaker 2: close to tens at the moment, Yeah, just below tens

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Speaker 2: at the moment or around that level, what are these

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Speaker 2: saying to you about the incentive to go out along

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Speaker 2: the curve and what kind of what kind of document

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Speaker 2: can you make for them to get out of cash.

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Speaker 3: That's a great elsewear.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a great question because when you look at

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Speaker 8: cash is certainly building up on the sidelines, and I

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Speaker 8: would say there's always that argument around the seven point

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Speaker 8: six trillion dollars that's sitting on the sidelines, but quite candidly,

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Speaker 8: that's only increasing, it's not decreasing. And so when you

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Speaker 8: look at our portfolios, we're not advocating for long duration

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Speaker 8: at all. I think you have to be weary of

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Speaker 8: some inflationary pressures. So the average duration in our portfolios

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Speaker 8: is around five years. I think that catalyst from going

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Speaker 8: from cash into a five year duration. We have to

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Speaker 8: be realistic about the investor psychology. So what we see

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Speaker 8: more often is not your traditional sixty forty portfolio, but

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Speaker 8: maybe a sixty thirty ten where that cash position people

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Speaker 8: will hold it so they can be more nimble.

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Speaker 1: There is this issue of what's the best hedge against inflation.

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Speaker 1: Couldn't it just be stocks? Isn't that almost what people

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Speaker 1: are better?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: I think it is, and I think there's actually a

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Speaker 8: defensive play in terms of the largest free cash flow

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Speaker 8: generating companies.

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Speaker 5: And I know you guys have been discussing.

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Speaker 8: This all morning in terms of where should you be invested,

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Speaker 8: particularly in equity markets. I think as an inflationary hedge,

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Speaker 8: we have gold in our portfolios. I know many many

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Speaker 8: ASCID managers do as well. But when you look at

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Speaker 8: where you want to be within US equity markets, I

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Speaker 8: think the major debate right now is do we want

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Speaker 8: to lean into momentum and the winners or do we

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Speaker 8: want to play this broadening out trade. I think the

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Speaker 8: broadening out trade will certainly it can deliver returns.

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Speaker 5: I think it's still tricky because when you look.

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Speaker 8: At small caps, their earnings are declining, they're not growing,

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Speaker 8: and then you look at these large companies, they've contributed

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Speaker 8: over sixty percent of the earnings growth this year. So

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Speaker 8: while it feels weird to be invested there, I think

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Speaker 8: you have to play the momentum.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, as we were talking about this morning,

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Speaker 1: the Nvidia open aidl the idea that Nvidia is investing

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Speaker 1: one hundred billion dollars for open ai to buy their

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Speaker 1: products exactly.

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Speaker 5: So it creates this.

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Speaker 1: Feeling that we're all hinging on this circular bet with

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Speaker 1: in big tech jet names that isn't yes yet getting

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Speaker 1: ratified in the profitability in the rest of the economy.

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Speaker 1: At what point does that feel wrong?

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Speaker 8: I think the main question is almost what is the

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Speaker 8: barecase from here? And that's one of the questions when

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Speaker 8: we see all of this capac spending, when we see

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Speaker 8: what is the timeline for that when you will actually

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Speaker 8: see the returns? And I think investors are patient. I

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Speaker 8: think it's more I saw a piece recently where it

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Speaker 8: was innocent until proven guilty, and so looking out like

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Speaker 8: one to three years, I think there's patients in that investment,

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Speaker 8: But I do think we have Q three earnings coming up,

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Speaker 8: and there's if there's one miss or if we don't

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Speaker 8: have a beat and a raise, I think you will

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Speaker 8: see a pullback in the market.

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Speaker 6: When you talk to clients, what are the most concerned

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Speaker 6: about right now? You mention your notes this tug of

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Speaker 6: war between the AI story, but maybe even tariffs at

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Speaker 6: some point hitting them next year. Our clients just dismissive,

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Speaker 6: as Lisa Shallitt said, of what's coming out of policy

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Speaker 6: or is it still in the back of their mind brewing.

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Speaker 8: I agree with Lisa in her comments. I think there's

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Speaker 8: almost like there's tariff fatigue.

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Speaker 5: So it's almost that was.

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Speaker 8: The dominating conversation a couple of months ago, and now

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Speaker 8: it's not really even a question that clients are asking.

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Speaker 8: And so I think the major thing on investors' minds

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Speaker 8: right now is really trying to position for the longer term,

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Speaker 8: understanding that short term there could be some volatility, there

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Speaker 8: could be some pressure one way or the other. But

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Speaker 8: where you position longer term and really the balance between

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Speaker 8: private and public markets is.

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Speaker 2: That a camp whites at US index is that how

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Speaker 2: I think about it long time.

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Speaker 8: Still still I think when you look at again, we're

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Speaker 8: not in the camp of this broadening out trade right now,

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Speaker 8: and so you could probably see some some strong returns,

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Speaker 8: particularly with interest rates coming down, and you don't want

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Speaker 8: to fight the FED on that. But I think like

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Speaker 8: when you look at the name of the game is

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Speaker 8: really quality and free cash flow generation, and who's going

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Speaker 8: to be able to make those types of not one

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Speaker 8: hundred billion dollar investments but similar to really kind of

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Speaker 8: fuel the growth.

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Speaker 3: Let's build on that.

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Speaker 2: Why don't you lie smoke caps at a great run

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Speaker 2: off the back of the repricing of the FED.

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Speaker 3: Why is this just another head fight?

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Speaker 8: Because I don't think it's based on fundamentals. And so

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Speaker 8: when you look at okay, if there are inflationary pressures,

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Speaker 8: if there's part of the market that is going to

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Speaker 8: be exposed to tariffs, ultimately, if there's part of the

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Speaker 8: market that's not going to be able to do that

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Speaker 8: cap ex spending, who's going to get left behind.

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Speaker 5: It's smaller companies.

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Speaker 8: So maybe through M and A you could see some

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Speaker 8: activity there, But I think this is really a market

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Speaker 8: that's going to be driven by those making the investments

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Speaker 8: and seeing the return on these investments.

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Speaker 1: The main argument has been the rate cutting cycle could

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Speaker 1: potentially provide a boost schorce of the economy in a

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Speaker 1: way that some people weren't expecting. Has that all been

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Speaker 1: priced in already, or do you think that there could

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Speaker 1: be some sort of upside surprise in the rest of

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Speaker 1: the market as a result of potentially an even greater

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Speaker 1: degree of dubbishness in the FED come after May of

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Speaker 1: next year.

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Speaker 8: I think it's largely at this moment, if we're just

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Speaker 8: looking from here to the end of the year, I

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Speaker 8: think it's largely been priced in, especially for small caps. Again,

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Speaker 8: these rallies that have been driven more not on fundamentals,

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Speaker 8: but almost expecting that that FED momentum. I just see

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Speaker 8: better opportunities in other parts of the market.

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Speaker 1: You pointed something out your notes, and I love this,

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Speaker 1: the idea that every single time that the FED has

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Speaker 1: been cutting rates at a time when the market's been

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Speaker 1: at a record high, every single time the one year

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Speaker 1: out the market was up and off and up considerably,

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Speaker 1: why not just overweight risk right now?

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Speaker 5: So great question. In our notes.

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Speaker 8: Basically what we shared was when the FED since nineteen

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Speaker 8: eighty has with markets at all time highs. The times

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Speaker 8: that the FED has started to cut rates, we've seen

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Speaker 8: positive returns.

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Speaker 5: We actually just saw that last year, so.

443
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 8: In September of twenty twenty four we got a rate cut.

444
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 8: We're now up about seventeen and a half percent since

445
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:37,719
Speaker 8: last September.

446
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 5: So I think you still have to strike a balance though,

447
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 5: because what are the risks on the horizon.

448
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:44,040
Speaker 8: You don't want to be all in on equities in

449
00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 8: an environment where you still have what are the risks?

450
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 8: You basically have earnings and someone not delivering on earnings,

451
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,160
Speaker 8: and given that concentration, you could see some downward pressure.

452
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 8: You also have the deficit, which is another major risk.

453
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:57,960
Speaker 5: And we have to talk about labor too.

454
00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 8: That when you look at the labor market, that is

455
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 8: something that well, we could say it's stalled, it is softening,

456
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 8: and we're starting to see this emergence of why is

457
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,879
Speaker 8: the labor market stalling? Is it because of AI and

458
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,600
Speaker 8: people holding off? Is it because of tariffs? Is it

459
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 8: because of immigration? There's really three cases there. But if

460
00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 8: we see the labor market continue to deteriorate, that's something

461
00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 8: that will ultimately impact consumer spending.

462
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 2: The labor market for grants is just awful, terrible. We've

463
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 2: all seen the numbers. Does not look good at all.

464
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's personal issue. It's also something that

465
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: very much speaks to the economy and the idea of

466
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: upward mobility at a time when there are all these

467
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 1: other pressures cost of housing and the like. How much

468
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,399
Speaker 1: are companies truly replacing entry level talent with AI. How

469
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: much are they using that as a smokes grade simply

470
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 1: because they don't feel very confident about the trajectory going forward.

471
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:46,880
Speaker 2: I don't know, but I wonder if the much tigh

472
00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 2: restrictions around H one base support or complement the effort

473
00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 2: to try and do something about the lack of employment

474
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 2: right now for graduates in this country.

475
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: It's a good question how much that really comes in parallel,

476
00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,560
Speaker 1: And that's the reason why some people have supported more

477
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 1: homegrown O talent.

478
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:01,760
Speaker 5: I also wonder who's going to.

479
00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 1: Push back, get that lobbying engine back in Washington, DC,

480
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:06,919
Speaker 1: and what exactly some of the.

481
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 5: Carbouts you're going to look.

482
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:10,440
Speaker 2: That's so Washington, DC is right, lobbying just a big

483
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 2: lobby and effort, Isn't.

484
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 3: That what it is?

485
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 8: And it's also one of those things where you could

486
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 8: see a market that continues to grind higher, earnings continuing

487
00:22:18,080 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 8: to go higher, and the unemployment rate going higher, which

488
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 8: is something we haven't seen, but that is a reality.

489
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 3: Stay with us.

490
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 2: More Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. Stephen Stanley of

491
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,760
Speaker 2: Santante Writing chairman. Powell seems frightened that the economy could

492
00:22:42,760 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 2: be on the cusp of a search in layoffs, but

493
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 2: while new hiring is slow dramatically, layoffs are not picking up.

494
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 2: Steven joins us now for more. Stephen, good morning running.

495
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 2: Do you think race pricing is too aggressive?

496
00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 5: I would say it is.

497
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 9: I mean, I think it's not outrageous for the rest

498
00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 9: of this year, but there's a lot of easy and

499
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 9: also price them for twenty twenty six.

500
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 1: Why do you think the labor market is more solid

501
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 1: than it currently appears, especially given some of the revisions

502
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: in non farm payrolls.

503
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 9: Yeah, so, I would say a couple of things. The

504
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 9: first one is I think that a lot of the

505
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 9: slowdown in job growth is a reflection of changes that

506
00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 9: we've seen on the supply side of the equation, right

507
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 9: just to slow down in immigration. We haven't seen a

508
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 9: dramatic slackening in things I mean, the unemployment rate has

509
00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 9: ticked up a little bit, but it's still pretty close

510
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 9: to where it's been for the last year year and

511
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 9: a half. I think the other point I would make,

512
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 9: and I think this is the more important point, is

513
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 9: that you have to think about why is the labor

514
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 9: market slowing down? And when you listen to what companies

515
00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 9: are saying, they're not saying, oh, you know, we're getting

516
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 9: ready for a recession, We're about to lay off a

517
00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 9: bunch of people. They're saying, we're just we've put ourselves

518
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,840
Speaker 9: on hold for a few months. We're waiting for policy certainty,

519
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 9: and once we have that certainty, we're going to re engage.

520
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 9: And I thought it was interesting that we heard from

521
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 9: a couple of Fedbank presidents yesterday suggesting that maybe firms

522
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,240
Speaker 9: are just getting to that point where they're almost ready

523
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 9: to re engage because we have seen a lot of

524
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 9: the policy uncertainty resolved at this point.

525
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: I think a big question is what does reengage mean.

526
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 1: Does it mean invest in a bot that can talk

527
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: to another bot, that can then talk to another bot

528
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 1: to tell it what to do, and then a robot

529
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 1: will fulfill the order, will be actually hiring people. Could

530
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,800
Speaker 1: you see a scenario where you get a reacceleration in

531
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:27,360
Speaker 1: the US economy without the labor market getting materially more robust.

532
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 9: Well, it certainly depends on what sectors of the economy

533
00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 9: are driving you, right, I mean, if you're talking about

534
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:36,840
Speaker 9: just purely a manufacturing revival, then that's not going to

535
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:40,400
Speaker 9: generate a ton of jobs. Service sector is still very

536
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 9: labor intensive, so I think most parts of the service sector,

537
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 9: if they're strong there, you'll see a good amount of hiring.

538
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 6: To Lisa's point, though, how much are companies just saying

539
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 6: policy uncertainty as an excuse for AI taking.

540
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 5: Entry level jobs.

541
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 9: I think we are seeing places where AI is having

542
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 9: a big impact. You know, there's been a lot of

543
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 9: talk recently. I've written about this, the weakness in the

544
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 9: market for recent college grads, and I think that's certainly,

545
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 9: at least in some industries, one place where AI may

546
00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 9: be taking away from from what would normally be demand

547
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 9: for workers. But you know, we've seen you know, you

548
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,439
Speaker 9: can go back two hundred years, right, we were an

549
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 9: agricultural economy, and then we moved forward to a manufacturing

550
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 9: economy and a service economy. Some would say now we're

551
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:34,639
Speaker 9: moving to an information economy. Technology is always eliminating certain

552
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,720
Speaker 9: types of jobs, but in the process it has always

553
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 9: in the past generated new jobs, so you can't always

554
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 9: predict what those new jobs are going to be. I'm

555
00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 9: not on an aggregate level, I'm not worried that we're

556
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 9: not going to have enough jobs for people, but I

557
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 9: do think there's going to be some definitely some shifting

558
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 9: around in the market.

559
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 6: How does the FED discuss that because they don't have

560
00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 6: a prescription for AI is impact on the market.

561
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 9: No, the FED can't really, That's something the FED can't

562
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 9: really control, right, So the FED has to stick to

563
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 9: its knitting. We have to keep inflation close to two

564
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 9: percent and you know, and keep the labor market close

565
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 9: to full employment. When there are supply side shocks to

566
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 9: the real economy that are beyond the Fed's control. That

567
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 9: makes the Fed's job harder for sure.

568
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 2: A bit of a guessing game. But one, have you

569
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 2: got neutral? What do you think it is?

570
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:28,720
Speaker 3: Yeah?

571
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 9: I would I'm more sympathy for the high neutral camp.

572
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 9: So I maybe three and a quarter to three and

573
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,639
Speaker 9: a half somewhere in that range. And the reason I

574
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 9: make that, I would make that argument is that the

575
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 9: economy has by and large performed very well over the

576
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,240
Speaker 9: last few years. I mean, if you remember, at the

577
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 9: beginning of twenty twenty two, the fund rate is at zero.

578
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 9: Market participants never had the funds rate getting back above

579
00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 9: two percent, and the idea was if you got to

580
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 9: two percent or hoigh, the economy would fall apart, we'd

581
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 9: have a recession, the government couldn't fund itself. You know,

582
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 9: there are all these dire things that were going to happen,

583
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,200
Speaker 9: and here we are. We had over a year at

584
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 9: over five percent, We've had over a year at four percent.

585
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,360
Speaker 9: The economy's done pretty well, and by the way, financial

586
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 9: conditions are tremendously positive at this point. So it just

587
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 9: doesn't feel like the FED is grossly restrictive at the

588
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 9: current rate level.

589
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:26,359
Speaker 3: I can tell you just to echo that.

590
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 2: I remember in twenty one being on a call with

591
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 2: Bill Dudley, a muhammadalarian, and at the time they were

592
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: talking about the prospect of getting rates back to five.

593
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 2: Maybe we'd have to go back to five. I remember

594
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 2: just being in shock, thinking if we go back to five,

595
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: what would happen to markets?

596
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 3: What would happen to the bond market? And here we are,

597
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 3: yet here we are?

598
00:27:42,800 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 2: And Governor Myron saying were two percentage points too tight?

599
00:27:46,240 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 2: Now for an individual yourself who believe that maybe market

600
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 2: pricing is too aggressive for twenty six, I want to

601
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:55,199
Speaker 2: understand how you'd respond if an incoming FED chair, someone

602
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,000
Speaker 2: nominated and confirmed, said the same thing that Governor Myron

603
00:27:58,040 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 2: said this week, the monetary policy was roughly two percentage

604
00:28:02,840 --> 00:28:04,080
Speaker 2: points too tight.

605
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 3: How would you respond to that?

606
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 2: How would you start to think about and recounibrate your

607
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 2: expectations for next year?

608
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 9: Yeah? I mean I think that there's two issues there.

609
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 9: One is how much sway does one person have even

610
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 9: the chair? And I think the answer to that is

611
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 9: if someone comes in who is grossly out of line

612
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 9: with the consensus, I think it will be very hard

613
00:28:25,760 --> 00:28:29,960
Speaker 9: to drag everybody along. So I think that a super

614
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 9: dovish chair would have some influence on the path of policy,

615
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 9: but not you not just going to come in and

616
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 9: get their way. And then the second point is how

617
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 9: aggressive would the FED be in that sort of an environment.

618
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 9: Would it be let's jump first and ask questions later,

619
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 9: or are we going to kind of take things as

620
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 9: they come and we're only gonna We're only going to

621
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 9: move as the data dictate, right, and as long as

622
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 9: inflation is closer to three percent then to two. I

623
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 9: think you're going to see a lot of caution on

624
00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 9: the committee, and we heard that yesterday out of some

625
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 9: of the more hawkish members on the committee Hammock and Bostic, And.

626
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, but caution, but that isn't preventing them from cutting rates,

627
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,920
Speaker 1: and that the baseline right now is.

628
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 5: Priced into markets.

629
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: You started by saying, you think it's actually pricing in

630
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 1: too many rate cuts, and you think that there actually

631
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: will be fewer.

632
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,160
Speaker 5: Let's say they do.

633
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: Cut BI an additional one hundred and twenty five basis points,

634
00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: and that the baseline of the committee does see neutral

635
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: at a lower level than you do. How much greater

636
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: is the risk of true reacceleration and inflation next year?

637
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 1: How underpriced is that possibility?

638
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean I think it's a it's a risk.

639
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 9: I don't think it's a baseline scenario for sure. You know,

640
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:49,960
Speaker 9: as we talked about with the labor market, I mean,

641
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 9: it's in my mind it's not a disaster, but it's

642
00:29:52,480 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 9: certainly less overheated. You know, if it's overheated at all,

643
00:29:56,040 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 9: it's much different than it was, say, two years ago.

644
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 5: You know, I don't see the We've.

645
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 9: Got the tariff impacts that still have to flow through,

646
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 9: and you can imagine a scenario in which terriff related

647
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,640
Speaker 9: price hikes kind of kick off something bigger.

648
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:14,760
Speaker 5: I don't think that.

649
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 9: Again, I don't think that that's a high probability scenario,

650
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 9: but it's a possibility. It's something the FED wants to

651
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 9: guard against and something they've talked about a lot.

652
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 5: So I mean, I don't.

653
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 9: Think that we should be, you know, just pulling our

654
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,640
Speaker 9: hair out that inflation is about to take off again.

655
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 9: But at the same time, inflation has proven to be

656
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 9: stubbornly high, and I think the FED needs to, in

657
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 9: my view at least needs to take that into account

658
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:45,240
Speaker 9: and be cautious in moving rates down. The closer you

659
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 9: get to the Fed's view of neutral, the I think,

660
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 9: the higher the bar is going to be for cutting again.

661
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 9: And you heard that a little bit yesterday. It's like, Okay,

662
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,960
Speaker 9: I was willing to go along with last week's move,

663
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 9: but I'm not sure I'm going to go along with

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00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 9: another one. And then they'll others who will say, well,

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00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 9: I could go for one more, but I don't know

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00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 9: about two more. You look at the range of longer

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00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,960
Speaker 9: run dots that we got last Wednesday, there are nineteen

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00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 9: people on the FMC. There were eleven different answers for

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00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 9: where neutral is, ranging from two and five eighths to

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00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 9: three and seven eights right, So as you start to

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00:31:20,880 --> 00:31:23,720
Speaker 9: get into that zone, more people are going to get

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00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 9: uncomfortable if you keep cutting.

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00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Savandans podcast, bringing you the best

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00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 2: in markets, economics, anchient politics. You can watch the show

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00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 2: live on bloomblog TV weekday mornings from six am to

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00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify

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00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the

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00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 2: bloom Blog terminal and the Bloomberg Business app