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Speaker 1: You're about to listen to the Late Round Fantasy Football show,

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Speaker 1: which originally aired on YouTube. If you'd like to catch

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Speaker 1: the show live this offseason, you can head to the

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Speaker 1: Late Round Fantasy Football YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash

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Speaker 1: at Late Round FF will be live each Wednesday at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern without further ado.

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Speaker 2: Here's this week's episode.

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Speaker 3: Welcome In, Welcome In. It's a Late Round Fantasy Football show.

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Speaker 3: David Kitchen joined by the face of Late Round, JJ

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Speaker 3: Zecheres and JJ.

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Speaker 4: How's it going, buddy, it's going, it's going.

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Speaker 1: I just told you I was so I rushed to

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Speaker 1: get the rankings out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so the Dynasty rankings.

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Speaker 1: Are all updated.

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Speaker 2: It's been a whirlwind five days, is all right.

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Speaker 1: We Prospect Guide was out on Saturday evening, as we,

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Speaker 1: you know, wanted to aim for.

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Speaker 2: Depending on the.

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Speaker 1: Time zone that you're in, could have been even Saturday

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Speaker 1: afternoon for some people. But then we got that done,

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Speaker 1: had a day with the family on Saturday, and then

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Speaker 1: Monday or sorry, on Sunday, and then on Monday I

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Speaker 1: did the podcast. I mean I did notes and stuff

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Speaker 1: on Sunday, but on Monday did the podcast.

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Speaker 2: Thirty three minute solo show.

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Speaker 1: And then today I was able to finish up the

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Speaker 1: updated Dynasty rankings.

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Speaker 2: So and then and then I got a quick, you know,

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Speaker 2: a little little peloton.

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Speaker 1: Yeah right, So if I look a certain way, it's

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Speaker 1: because I literally got out of the shower about ten

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Speaker 1: minutes ago.

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Speaker 4: JJ.

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Speaker 3: I'm not saying this because you signed my checks, but

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Speaker 3: you look awesome.

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Speaker 1: Thank you.

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Speaker 4: I may be saying a little bit because you sign

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Speaker 4: my checks. All right. This is an interactive show, so.

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Speaker 3: Again, if you are watching live, feel free to comment.

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Speaker 3: We've got lots of people talk about their Dynasty drafts.

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Speaker 3: It is Dynasty Draft season. And speaking of that, we've

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Speaker 3: got the Prospect Guide out and.

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Speaker 4: It is updated. Like JJ said, he's got rookie rankings.

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Speaker 3: We also have if you're like in a startup Dynasty

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Speaker 3: draft like I am. Well, we actually talked about another

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Speaker 3: startup draft where Godola and I could do one.

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Speaker 4: With some late round members. Since there's already one started.

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Speaker 2: We started one a while ago.

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Speaker 1: It's like a ten dollars, you know, fun little league

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Speaker 1: that we I even think it might be.

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Speaker 2: It might not be charity, it might be charity. I'm

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Speaker 2: not even sure.

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Speaker 1: I'm always the last one to pick because I'm terrible

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Speaker 1: at paying dues, as you know with the with the

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Speaker 1: Insiders league. Yeah, I'm just really for whatever reason, like

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Speaker 1: I'm usually on top of things, and I'm never on

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Speaker 1: top of that. It's not that I don't want to

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Speaker 1: pay I just I'm just not on top of it enough.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, we.

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Speaker 1: Started that draft that that league. It's a it's a

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Speaker 1: late round league. We started it via discord the first

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Speaker 1: year that late round fantasy football existed, and the first

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Speaker 1: two years I had the most brutal losses in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: Imaginable should have won, I mean, just the best team

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Speaker 1: the first two years, and then I'm like, you know what,

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Speaker 1: I'm done.

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Speaker 2: I'm blowing this up. So I've been blowing it up

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Speaker 2: ever since.

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Speaker 3: I guess it was the fact that I just had

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Speaker 3: to find out that there was this league by happenstance,

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Speaker 3: and I.

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Speaker 4: Felt left out for a little bit.

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Speaker 3: So it's okay, Berndan Goadola and I are going to

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Speaker 3: have our own. But with that, you can join the

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Speaker 3: Patreon layround dot com and get the overall a dice

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Speaker 3: rankings like you talked about. JJ No more NFL draft stuff,

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Speaker 3: though I erased it from the spreadsheet, and they think

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Speaker 3: that the schedule release will be.

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Speaker 4: Around early to mid May.

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Speaker 3: So I just put a rough date estimate the schedule release,

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Speaker 3: NFL schedule release, the actual games and stuff.

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Speaker 4: You've got every team that will have their own little

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Speaker 4: video out there. I like it. It's become like a

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Speaker 4: new tradition. And it's also for best ball season.

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Speaker 3: It's it's important because you figure out like the matchups

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Speaker 3: Seek seventeen. Yeah, some say it's all that matters, but

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Speaker 3: sometimes you just got to get you got to get lucky.

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Speaker 4: Let's just let's call it what it is. You got

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Speaker 4: to get lucky to advance there.

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Speaker 3: But the it always brings around those conversations, like in

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Speaker 3: the grand scheme of things, Week seventeen is in the

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Speaker 3: NFL just like it's just another week, you know, it's

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Speaker 3: a week before, But in fantasy football, it's a huge week.

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Speaker 3: Everything a week Yeah, it's everything, all right, And that

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Speaker 3: being said, Ja Jay, let's uh, let's get on to it.

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Speaker 4: It's today's news.

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Speaker 2: Today's fantasy news.

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Speaker 3: All right, Let's just recap the draft a little bit,

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Speaker 3: a little bit, because I know you've already had a

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Speaker 3: thirty three minute solo. We got the Draft guide out

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Speaker 3: lots of talk about big boards and everything else, but

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Speaker 3: just give.

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Speaker 4: Me your overall overview of how the draft went. Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, first off, I thought the draft itself was

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Speaker 1: really cool in Pittsburgh, as Ayenser, you know, born and raised,

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Speaker 1: I lived there until I was twenty two years old,

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Speaker 1: you know, grew up there and then went to pitt

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Speaker 1: And so it's really cool anytime I'm not in Pittsburgh

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Speaker 1: to just be able to see it in the national spotlight.

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Speaker 2: The way that it was.

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Speaker 1: And it's really cool to see how people are talking

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Speaker 1: about Pittsburgh after the fact. I saw Peter Schreger, I

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Speaker 1: saw a clip from him where he's like, Pittsburgh was awesome.

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Speaker 1: The people were so friendly, it was amazing. And the

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Speaker 1: city and like people get to see the awesome skyline

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Speaker 1: there and like it's a beautiful, beautiful town, Like it's

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Speaker 1: an awesome, awesome city, and that was really cool to see.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 2: The Eli heiden Reich pick was awesome.

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Speaker 1: Three Like that.

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Speaker 4: Was a movie right there. That was probably the best.

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Speaker 2: Probably the best moment of the draft was the Eli

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Speaker 2: heiden Reig stuff.

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Speaker 1: And did you see the subtle like salute that he

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Speaker 1: had in the mirror when he when he picked up

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Speaker 1: his hat and stuff.

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Speaker 3: Like it was awesome. Yeah, it was great. The mirror

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Speaker 3: would a cool touch. You also had the the Bain

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Speaker 3: Reuben Bain where he was so fired up. Ye, he

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Speaker 3: was ticked, so he was just getting down to business.

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Speaker 3: He didn't even look in the mirror. He just snatched

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Speaker 3: that hat off and he was ready to get to work.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, so like I thought that they Like

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Speaker 1: I was shocked because I know the area that they're

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Speaker 1: at in the North Shore, you know, by the by

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Speaker 1: the stadiums and stuff.

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Speaker 2: I know it intimately. I've been to. I was very fortunate.

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Speaker 2: I've been to dozens of Steeler games.

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Speaker 1: At Hinz Field after Sure not actually I don't think

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Speaker 1: I've been there since they had changed it to Afterture.

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Speaker 1: But like, so, like I know that area and I'm like,

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Speaker 1: oh man, this is gonna be wild to pack that

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Speaker 1: many people in there. But ended up working out really well,

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Speaker 1: So props the city planners and you know, I've talked

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Speaker 1: to people my my yser friends who still live up

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Speaker 1: there and they said that it was the of those

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Speaker 1: who went, they said it was a really great experience.

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Speaker 1: Now from a fantasy football perspective, which is why people

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Speaker 1: are listening to the show and watching the show. It

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Speaker 1: was absolute tra It was so so bad, and I look,

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Speaker 1: people are gonna go out there and they'll say, you'll

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Speaker 1: hear analysts say you know that don't necessarily cover prospecting

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Speaker 1: and don't cover the draft where they're like, oh, well,

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Speaker 1: we get stuff wrong all the time. We don't know

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Speaker 1: who's good and who isn't. Yeah, but we directionally know,

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Speaker 1: you know. The whole point in prospecting, the whole point

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Speaker 1: in analyzing these players and their fit and how good

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Speaker 1: they are, is to not say definitively I know this

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Speaker 1: guy is good or I know this guy's bad. It's

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Speaker 1: to say, I'm going to give myself a better edge

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Speaker 1: than my league bates by knowing how good or bad

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Speaker 1: this player is, especially from a dynasty standpoint versus where

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Speaker 1: they were actually drafted. And you can do that through data.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I have a model that has proven, you know,

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Speaker 1: that's been tested that look, we have This is the

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Speaker 1: fifth iteration of the prospect Guide. Yes, there's been tons

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Speaker 1: of misses because that's what happens with prospecting, but I

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Speaker 1: think that anyone who has had the guide year in and

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Speaker 1: year out, has hopefully been more green than red, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the end. And that's that's a w you know,

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Speaker 1: from a from a fantasy football perspective, because you're beating

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Speaker 1: your league mates more often than not. Now. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: so when I say that this class sucks, and when

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Speaker 1: other analysts say this class sucks, it's not just saying

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Speaker 1: it and like as if we're like super pompous and

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Speaker 1: we just know exactly what's gonna happen, and we we

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Speaker 1: uh you know.

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Speaker 2: Are are so into our own evaluations and ourselves.

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Speaker 1: It's like, no, we've seen what's gone on historically, and

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Speaker 1: this is not a good class when you compare it

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Speaker 1: to history.

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Speaker 2: Right, could it change?

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Speaker 1: Sure, But let's not bet on that or let's not

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Speaker 1: just say this is just like any other class because

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Speaker 1: we're wrong all the time.

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Speaker 2: I Mean, I just think that's such a such.

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Speaker 1: A a loser way to think, you know, like it's

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Speaker 1: just a like the whole point fantasy football is to

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Speaker 1: find those like in any game that you play. You know,

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Speaker 1: you played basketball growing up, kitchen Like you're finding the

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Speaker 1: micro edges to your game all the time. It's not

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Speaker 1: just one giant thing that fixes your game and now

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Speaker 1: everything change is it's these little small things that you're

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Speaker 1: constantly improving. You play golf, it's the exact same thing, right,

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Speaker 1: Fantasy football is another game. It's not you don't have

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Speaker 1: to go out and run and do stuff, but uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's another game where you're trying to find

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Speaker 1: these small edges and there's a lot of small edges

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Speaker 1: to be had. So, you know, I look at this

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Speaker 1: draft class and I say, it's really bad the fact

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Speaker 1: that we're getting, you know, Day three running backs where

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Speaker 1: they're going in rookie drafts right now.

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Speaker 2: And look, I'm not even I'm not even.

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Speaker 1: Faulting the ADP, you know, like I have them going

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Speaker 1: in the places where a lot of the ADP is

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Speaker 1: placing them. It's just that's that's what we're working with

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Speaker 1: with this class. And that that sort of leads into

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Speaker 1: the next item.

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Speaker 3: There were Day three running backs because teams weren't selecting

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Speaker 3: any running backs in Day two.

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Speaker 2: Well, no one of them.

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Speaker 1: One of them was.

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Speaker 2: One of them was Kitchen.

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Speaker 1: The San Francisco forty nine ers were they were they

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Speaker 1: were drafting Day two running backs.

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Speaker 3: Eight were drafting. They're drafting a lot. Speaking of of reaches,

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Speaker 3: I will say before we get into the reach section,

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Speaker 3: I appreciate what you said on the podcast when you

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Speaker 3: said like you were excited to dive into the prospects

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Speaker 3: after the draft this year me too, because like it

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Speaker 3: was such a it just seemed like a lottery just

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Speaker 3: as far as you didn't know what teams were gonna

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Speaker 3: pick where. And I feel I'm not trying to plug

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Speaker 3: the you know, the late round uh, you know prospect

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Speaker 3: guy that you can get over that late round dot

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Speaker 3: com slash guides, but I'm saying that this year more

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Speaker 3: than ever, just needs needed to have some some sort

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Speaker 3: of what are we doing here?

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Speaker 2: Well, here's the other thing.

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Speaker 1: I I admittedly I don't know if the Prospect Guide

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Speaker 1: is gonna be as helpful as other years with your

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Speaker 1: rookie drafts.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'll just be honest with that.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's really bad salesmanship, I mean, but yeah, what

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Speaker 1: I do think it's gonna do, and what where I

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Speaker 1: do think it's really helpful or going to be helpful

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Speaker 1: is in redraft this year more than other years, Like

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Speaker 1: I think, I think because what we're gonna find is,

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Speaker 1: like I said, I've said the last couple of months

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Speaker 1: on this show, the wide receiver group in this class

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Speaker 1: is so mediocre.

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Speaker 2: For how many Day two picks we got. Remember, like

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Speaker 2: the chart that I did either.

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Speaker 1: Last week or two weeks ago looking at the number

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Speaker 1: of Day two wide receivers NFL Mock Draft database had

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Speaker 1: projected us to see this year, and it was as

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Speaker 1: many as any other year that we've seen since twenty eleven.

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Speaker 1: Well guess what we got more. We got seventeen of

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Speaker 1: them on Day one and two in the top one hundred,

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Speaker 1: and so what that means is we have a lot

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Speaker 1: and none of them really stand out, like genuinely, There's

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Speaker 1: none that are like, oh man, this wide receiver is

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Speaker 1: so much better than everyone else, Whereas we get that

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Speaker 1: a lot of years.

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Speaker 2: Luther Burden last year was that.

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Speaker 1: Dude, Luther Burden was very clearly the best wide receiver

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Speaker 1: that was drafted on Day two according to the model.

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Speaker 1: And so we don't have that this year, which means

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Speaker 1: we gotta like read the profiles of these guys.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this is why the profile write ups are there.

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Speaker 2: And don't just look at the rankings.

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Speaker 1: If you just want the rankings, you can go to

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Speaker 1: Patreon and find the rankings, like get the guides, you

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Speaker 1: can understand who these players are and where they win.

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Speaker 1: And then also when redraft comes around and we start

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Speaker 1: to see that chaos kind of form a little bit more,

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Speaker 1: and you know, there's blurbs about Caleb Douglas for Miami

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Speaker 1: and how he's dominating camp or whatever the case may be,

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Speaker 1: and then you can go read his prospect right up

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Speaker 1: and you can say, oh, well, the prospect model was

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Speaker 1: saying x y z, his analytics look like this. Maybe

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't invest as much as what these beat writers

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Speaker 1: are saying right now. That's relevant in any year, but

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Speaker 1: I think it's more relevant this year because things are

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Speaker 1: just so freaking chaotic.

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Speaker 4: Poor Miami, Poor Malik Willis. I'll say that.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure we'll be talking about him a lot in

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Speaker 3: the future weeks. Let's talk about another quarterback, though.

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Speaker 2: I want to talk about the reaches real quick.

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Speaker 4: Oh I thought you just did.

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Speaker 2: No.

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Speaker 1: No, that was just for general or generally how the

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Speaker 1: draft was going. When it comes to like I have seen,

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Speaker 1: there's been so much discourse. I'm saying in on here

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Speaker 1: on this show, I won't talk about it on the

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Speaker 1: mail Bag. I talked about it a little bit on Actually,

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Speaker 1: I talked about a decent bit on the show that

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Speaker 1: dropped on Monday with the draft recap analyzing front office

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Speaker 1: decision making. I think it's very very important for people

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Speaker 1: to recognize because you're seeing a lot of like fan

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Speaker 1: accounts out there that are tweeting about this. It's very

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Speaker 1: important for people to recognize that when we talk about

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Speaker 1: reaches and we talk about consensus big boards, we are

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Speaker 1: not saying that a player who was very high on

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Speaker 1: the consensus big board who then goes late in the

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Speaker 1: draft or way later, is then a very very good pick.

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Speaker 2: Okay, let me give you an example. Let's say that

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Speaker 2: a quarterback was projected to go tenth overall.

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Speaker 1: Right, Malik Willis was actually one of these players I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, whenever he came out or you know, there's

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Speaker 1: been other quarterback situation.

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Speaker 2: Door Sanders was like that too, I believe. So you know,

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Speaker 2: you look at these quarterbacks that are let's say he's

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Speaker 2: supposed to go tenth overall and he goes.

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Speaker 1: One hundredth overall. Okay, you might sit there and be like, oh,

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Speaker 1: consensus big board had him ninety picks. That's a whole

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Speaker 1: lot of value ahead of where he actually got drafted. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: that player, if this consensus big Board hypothesis is correct,

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Speaker 1: that player should far outperform you know, where he was

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Speaker 1: drafted as a one hundredth overall pick. The reality is

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Speaker 1: that does not happen. And you might wonder why would

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Speaker 1: that be the case when reaches and you're sitting here

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Speaker 1: saying that reaches where if the inverse were true, if

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Speaker 1: if he was supposed to go one hundredth overall and

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Speaker 1: he went tenth overall? Why do reaches matter? But values don't.

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Speaker 2: And the reason for that is that when values occur,

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Speaker 2: thirty two teams are deciding not to take that player

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Speaker 2: over and over and over again. So you have multiple

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Speaker 2: inputs of teams saying, nah, we don't want this guy, No,

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Speaker 2: we don't want this guy.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to reaches, it's one team.

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Speaker 1: It's just what you just need one team to say

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna get two two at well in the second round.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's just one team that says I need

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Speaker 1: to get Caleb Douglas in round three. We don't know

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Speaker 1: for sure what a the team's thought about that player,

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Speaker 1: whereas we do know for sure what other teams thought

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Speaker 1: about that falling value is that they didn't want that guy. Now,

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Speaker 1: falling values can work out, like Cooper Degen was a

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Speaker 1: falling value. I don't know exactly where his consensus mock

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Speaker 1: draft you know number was, but he was a falling value.

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Speaker 1: He's clearly worked out. Right. The point is that when

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Speaker 1: you do have a reach, Historically, we have hard data

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Speaker 1: at a lot of positions. I'm not saying all positions,

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Speaker 1: but at a lot of positions. And for me, I

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Speaker 1: speak only about fantasy football positions, and I can definitively

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Speaker 1: say at wide receiver, we do see worse production from

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Speaker 1: those players when their reaches running back. It's a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but it's not a big enough deal for me to

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Speaker 1: be like, you gotta just you gotta be like overly

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Speaker 1: worried about this player.

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Speaker 2: But at wide receiver.

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Speaker 1: And a huge reason for that is because teams can

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Speaker 1: simply say, hey, we drafted this running back in round

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Speaker 1: two when you were supposed to go in round four

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Speaker 1: or five. Therefore we're going to feed this player, right,

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Speaker 1: Because you can just do that at running back and

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Speaker 1: you can't do that a wide receiver. They can run

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Speaker 1: more routes, sure, but they have to be efficient on

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Speaker 1: those routes. When you're on the field as a running back,

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Speaker 1: you just need to get the ball. That's all that matters.

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Speaker 1: So wide receiver, it does matter, and we're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about that with today's data.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's a really important idea to throw

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Speaker 2: out there.

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Speaker 1: And then the other thing that I want to say,

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Speaker 1: especially with like the forty nine ers and forty nine

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Speaker 1: er account fans out there, Okay, I've seen people be like, Oh,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if the forty niners are reaching, just

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Speaker 1: look at what they do with like George Kittle. Guys,

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Speaker 1: George Kittle went thirty picks after consensus where the consensus

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Speaker 1: had him on the big board.

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Speaker 2: Like, this isn't about finding value. Any team can find value.

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Speaker 1: And I would argue a lot of Day three picks

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Speaker 1: are going to have way more randomness than you want

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Speaker 1: them to have, right like walking into Brock party, Yes,

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Speaker 1: there's some skill involved in being able to say I'm

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Speaker 1: going to get this guy. He's the last pick in

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Speaker 1: the draft. You want to sit here and say that

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Speaker 1: they knew exactly what brock Purty was going to be.

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Speaker 1: You want to sit here and say that the Patriots

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Speaker 1: knew exactly what Tom Brady was going to be. The

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Speaker 1: real value is the fact that Kyle Shanahan is an

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Speaker 1: awesome head coach and he's able to develop that player into.

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Speaker 2: What he is today.

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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick saw something in Tom Brady and was able

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Speaker 1: to develop Tom Brady. Right, It's still incredibly lucky to

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Speaker 1: get those players that late in the draft, to get

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Speaker 1: those like, you know, I mean, in Tom Brady's case,

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Speaker 1: the best player of all time, right, And so I

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Speaker 1: do think that's important to like just at least have

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Speaker 1: some humility with this stuff. You can't just say, hey,

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Speaker 1: the good stuff, we were all over that, but the

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Speaker 1: bad stuff we just got unlucky. Now, that's not how

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Speaker 1: this works. You more than likely got pretty lucky with

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Speaker 1: a Day three hit. And when it comes to day

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Speaker 1: one and two, I do think that at least being respectable,

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Speaker 1: like like, at least respecting that big board to a

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Speaker 1: degree is really really important.

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Speaker 2: You can reach every once in a while, it's not

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Speaker 2: the end of the world.

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Speaker 1: I saw a tweet something along the lines of like

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Speaker 1: reaching is like breaking the law, where like you know

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Speaker 1: you're gonna drive over the speed limit, you might you

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Speaker 1: might break the technically break the law or once in

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Speaker 1: a while, but if you do it over and over

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Speaker 1: and over again, it's a really bad idea, you know.

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Speaker 1: And that's exactly how I view this stuff, where the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers from a fantasy perspective and from our perspective,

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Speaker 1: they're just so in the center of this right now

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Speaker 1: because they made two reaches on day two and taking

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Speaker 1: design stribbling and then Kaylon Black, Like they were just

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Speaker 1: two very clear reaches.

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Speaker 2: And they've done this in the past, especially at running Back.

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Speaker 1: So I do think that it's about to me, it's

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Speaker 1: about like arrogance and humility, and it's about these these

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Speaker 1: front offices just saying like.

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Speaker 2: No, we know what we need.

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Speaker 1: It's like, okay, you might know what you need, but

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Speaker 1: at least do your best to squeeze out as much

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Speaker 1: value as.

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Speaker 4: Possible and know the market.

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Speaker 3: Like if you want to buy some bananas, buy some bananas,

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Speaker 3: but don't say I'm going to give you twenty bucks

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Speaker 3: for these two bananas, Like you know, I have to

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Speaker 3: know like the market value of them. Hey, from bananas

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Speaker 3: to bananas.

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Speaker 4: Some might say.

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Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers is being tendered as an undrafted or as

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Speaker 3: a unrestricted free agent.

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Speaker 2: I think that they know less this year than they

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Speaker 2: did last year.

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Speaker 1: He's just Steelers. Okay, they do know less this year

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Speaker 1: than they did last year. However, I think that they

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Speaker 1: probably have a good idea that he's going to be there.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I just wonder if like a move like that is

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Speaker 3: going to be like he doesn't you know, he likes

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Speaker 3: to play by his own rules, So I wonder what

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Speaker 3: the games when ship is going there. If they don't

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Speaker 3: have Rogers this year, they're screwed.

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Speaker 2: Well that's yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, they're going to have to see what

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Speaker 1: they have and Will Howard and Drew Aller. But I

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Speaker 1: would argue that that's not a bad thing.

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Speaker 4: For the franchise. Yeah, because if you're going to be bad,

439
00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 4: just be really bad.

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Speaker 2: Especially this year when they have a good quarterback class

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Speaker 2: next year.

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Speaker 3: I will say easy on the good quarterback class next year.

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Speaker 3: If you saw the graphic from how we thought this

444
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:49,399
Speaker 3: quarterback class was going to be from last year and.

445
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:50,960
Speaker 1: Now you're just doing the same thing I talked about

446
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 1: the beginning of the show. Oh, we don't know anything

447
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,639
Speaker 1: about the draft. We were so more terrible at this.

448
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 2: It's going to be a better quarterback class than this year,

449
00:19:58,359 --> 00:19:59,000
Speaker 2: is what I'm saying.

450
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 3: I did laugh though, at the top six of the

451
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,119
Speaker 3: fifteen that were in like way too early. Like I

452
00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,119
Speaker 3: do appreciate the way too early mock drafts for the

453
00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 3: next year because of how hilariously bad they are. You know,

454
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 3: it gets closer as you see more data input. But

455
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,560
Speaker 3: we had Titans people saying you shouldn't take cam Ward

456
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,720
Speaker 3: because the quarterback class this year. I mean, it might

457
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 3: have been right, all right, easy, Jayden Reid, we can

458
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 3: agree in this. He hits a three year, fifty million

459
00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:41,000
Speaker 3: dollar deal twenty year or twenty million guaranteed. So good

460
00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 3: for Jayden Reid who were fans of getting the bag

461
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 3: for the Packers.

462
00:20:46,480 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what, man, every time I update the

463
00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,160
Speaker 1: Dynasty rankings, I update them and then I compare them

464
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 1: to like, I try to embed market value a little

465
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,000
Speaker 1: bit in my rankings because I think it's important. It's

466
00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,240
Speaker 1: an important part of dynasty. So like, you can't just

467
00:20:58,280 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 1: talked about it. Yeah, you can't just go crazy number one,

468
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 1: because you could be wrong, like I said, But number two,

469
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 1: there's a value component to dynasty where you at least

470
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 1: want to maintain that value and it's not just about production.

471
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 1: That's the other side of the Dynasty equation. You know,

472
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 1: if you don't want to play the value game, then

473
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,040
Speaker 1: just play Redraft. That's that's what I would say. But

474
00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 1: Jayden reid Man, the last couple of times that I've

475
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:24,640
Speaker 1: updated the rankings, he is a huge value right now. Like,

476
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,919
Speaker 1: it's kind of crazy how far I think I'm like

477
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,800
Speaker 1: ten wide receiver spots compared to keep Trade Cut, and

478
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: people will say, oh, it's keep trade cut. It's terrible.

479
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 2: Most other places I'm higher than on Jayden Reid.

480
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: Just on the off chance that what if this is

481
00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 1: the year that they decide to move them around more

482
00:21:41,600 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 1: and they like, we have a very clear and obvious opening.

483
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: They lose Romeo Dobs, they lose do Tavian Wicks. We

484
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,400
Speaker 1: have very clear three wide sets for green Bay, and

485
00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:53,240
Speaker 1: one of those players is Matthew Golden, who I'm actually

486
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 1: going to be in on Matthew Golden.

487
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 2: I think in Redraft this year, I'm not in Dynasty.

488
00:21:57,040 --> 00:22:00,680
Speaker 1: But this is one of those cases where like young player, uh,

489
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 1: you know, I I oddly like and Redraft more than

490
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 1: I do Dynasty, which is backwards to a lot of people,

491
00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 1: but the investment is totally different. Matthew Golden's a double

492
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 1: digit round pick in Redraft, whereas in Dynasty you're still

493
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:15,359
Speaker 1: going to have to spend something relatively significant to get him.

494
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,240
Speaker 1: But with Jayden Reid, I don't know, man, I mean,

495
00:22:18,280 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: I think there's at least some chance we see way

496
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 1: more Jayden Reid and two wide receiver sets.

497
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 2: I felt the same way about Josh Downs a couple

498
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 2: of months.

499
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:27,320
Speaker 1: Ago, uh one, or like a month ago whenever, all

500
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 1: the stuff was happening with that wide receiver room, and

501
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 1: then they didn't go out and really do anything a

502
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 1: wide receiver other than Matt harmon favorite Dion Burks. I

503
00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: had to throw that one out there.

504
00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 4: Nice.

505
00:22:37,320 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: Uh, I love you Harmon.

506
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: Uh did you see that?

507
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 1: Him and him and and Jeremiah were talking about Dion

508
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: Burks on the show, and then Harmon called out the.

509
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 4: Prospect und of the US. Some are saying, though Burk's

510
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,560
Speaker 4: is going to be the new Josh Downs there, and.

511
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 2: Well that's the thing.

512
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: The beautiful part about Burks is that the one wide

513
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 1: receiver that they drafted was a slock guy.

514
00:22:58,280 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 2: You know, like that's what John like.

515
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: If nothing else, josh Awens is an excellent slot player,

516
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: and so you know that makes me feel better, even

517
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:06,840
Speaker 1: better about how I feel about Josh downs.

518
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 2: But Jayden Reid's the same thing.

519
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,120
Speaker 1: This is an offense that consistently ranks in the top

520
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 1: half of the league in touchdowns per game under the floor.

521
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,679
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a good offense, a good quarterback, a

522
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: good situation. And now you only have three wide receivers

523
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 1: rotating instead of the six.

524
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 2: Guys, five guys you would have before, you know, in

525
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 2: Green Bay.

526
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 1: So I am in on Jaden Reid early, best ball,

527
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 1: get him, you know, dynasty right now, get him. You

528
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 1: could send a second for Jaden Reid easily right now,

529
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,320
Speaker 1: just given what trade calculators might say. And the second

530
00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:37,719
Speaker 1: round of rookie drafts right now is absolutely future. I mean,

531
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 1: Jayden Reid is a good player.

532
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:45,760
Speaker 3: Okay, From someone who you really have liked to another

533
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 3: person that maybe not have not likes as much.

534
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: I'm no. You can say I missed completely on QJ

535
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 2: last year. I missed completely. He was probably one of

536
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: my biggest.

537
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 4: Misses last year.

538
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 3: Well, I mean it wasn't just from you, but yeah,

539
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 3: the Charger pick up Qj's fifth year option heading into

540
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 3: this season.

541
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 1: Thoughts on that, Yeah, I mean, I'm not surprised because

542
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 1: I think that he can play a role for real football.

543
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 1: I do. I am really interested to see Brendan Thompson

544
00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,720
Speaker 1: play in that offense with because QJ has taken a

545
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 1: lot of those vertical routes in the offense, but it's

546
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: a brand new one with Mike McDaniels, so who knows

547
00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,359
Speaker 1: how he's gonna deploy him. I mean, I thought QJ

548
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: was kind of an interesting name to just throw a

549
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 1: dart at earlier this offseason with the Mike McDaniel news,

550
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,119
Speaker 1: because I think McDaniel's really good at his job.

551
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 2: And the offense itself. You get your tackles back.

552
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 1: You know, the run game is should be a lot stronger,

553
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 1: you know, Marion Hampton into year two, they get Keaton Mitchell,

554
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: who I think is a perfect compliment to Hampton.

555
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 2: Camani Vadell is a good player.

556
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,199
Speaker 1: So their backfield looks great. The offensive line is going

557
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 1: to look so much better. Justin Herbert is a is

558
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: a top ten quarterback from a talent perspective, and then

559
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 1: they have these you know, you could you could look

560
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,199
Speaker 1: at you know, lat McConkie's awesome, right, but then you

561
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: have a lot of question marks at wide receiver on

562
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,639
Speaker 1: that team. But that's why you know the market is

563
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 1: reflecting that, and you have the rest the infrastructure is

564
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: there elsewhere. So I'm fine with throwing darts of those players,

565
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: including a Brennan Thompson in rookie drafts, because he has

566
00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: the skill set in the speed that Mike McDaniel has

567
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:16,919
Speaker 1: loved in the past. I don't know if people saw it,

568
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 1: but I sent a tweet after Brennan, right after Brendan

569
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 1: Thompson was drafted, I sent a tweet that said, it's

570
00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 1: the most Mike McDaniel, you know what of all time

571
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 1: or something like most Mike McDonald something like that of

572
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,239
Speaker 1: all time. Like it was it was very clearly Mike

573
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: McDonald pick, Mike McDaniel pick, and then Mike McDaniel. There's

574
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:36,840
Speaker 1: a video from the Chargers that came out twenty four

575
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: hours later and he's like, Hey, what do I gotta

576
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,520
Speaker 1: do to get Brennan Thompson. Like it was like it

577
00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 1: was clearly his dude. So I'm very excited to see

578
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: how they deploy him. You know, he's more than likely

579
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 1: going to just be like a fun vertical threat JJ

580
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,800
Speaker 1: Nelson kind of player. But there is I mean, his

581
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: number one comp in the model was Tank Dell. The

582
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: model didn't like tang Dell nearly enough, and it doesn't

583
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 1: like Brennan Thompson, I think enough for what he could

584
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: do within this offense.

585
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I love those you know, teams are doing more

586
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: and more those behind the scenes stuff and I can't

587
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 3: get enough of it. You know, it's just awesome, all right,

588
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 3: oh boy. You know, generally when you have a franchise tag,

589
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,880
Speaker 3: it goes okay, they signed the you know, the franchise tag,

590
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: everything works out. That's for like just normal just players

591
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: and teams. George Pickens might not be as normal of

592
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 3: a player. He has yet to sign this tag. At

593
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 3: what point do we become concerned because it is George Pickens?

594
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think, what's he got to play

595
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 1: like week ten or something to a crew season. I remember,

596
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: like back in the day I was, I was really

597
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: into the cruel stuff and like understanding like the Yon

598
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 1: Bell Yeah, I think it was the Baby on Bell

599
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: season probably that was probably like understanding, like when he

600
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: would have to play and uh with pick A, I

601
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 1: think now, I think the way the rules are now,

602
00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: it's like week ten or something like that, he could

603
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: hold out until.

604
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I.

605
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 1: Think it's like a little bit of a risk that

606
00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,879
Speaker 1: you can you can bump him down slightly. But the

607
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: problem is, I don't think Pickens has the history of.

608
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 2: Someone who can get away with something like this.

609
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:21,200
Speaker 1: You know, like there's the Steelers having traded him more rumors.

610
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 2: Than than facts or evidence.

611
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:25,080
Speaker 1: I would say of him being like an off the

612
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 1: field problem, you know, right, it does seem like it's

613
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,040
Speaker 1: a case where like the narrative is a little bit

614
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: more extreme than the reality.

615
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,360
Speaker 2: I just think he's like an interesting dude.

616
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: I mean, remember him in the undraft when he's just

617
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 1: like staring at the TV, you know, and like like

618
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 1: it's just like a really like I just think he's

619
00:27:39,760 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 1: a different kind of guy. But he's awesome, right, He

620
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:44,360
Speaker 1: dominated last year.

621
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 4: I wanted the Titans to draft him.

622
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Cowboys need George Pickens, and so you know,

623
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: whether that means a long term deal or not, we'll see.

624
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 1: But I think that that's part of the problem is

625
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: that I think Pickens can can ride this out at

626
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 1: least a little bit, because I think Dallas needs him

627
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 1: more than he might need Dallas in this case.

628
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 4: In this case, like, what else is there other than

629
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 4: this franchise tag?

630
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 1: What I'm saying you just you just hold out until

631
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: and then what does that do for your brand and

632
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 1: tarnishing your brand further within the NFL and within NFL

633
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: circles for a future contract? Yeah, I mean, like it's

634
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 1: a really I'm not going to sit here and pretend

635
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: like I have any idea how this is going to

636
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: go down, But I do think that you probably should

637
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: at least discount.

638
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 2: Him a slightly, like a little bit versus where his

639
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 2: projection might be.

640
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, all right, Diego Pavia three year deal with the Ravens.

641
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 1: Why are we talking about this?

642
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 4: I don't know why.

643
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: I mean, you mean, uh, Taysom Pavia is that here?

644
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 1: Is that here?

645
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 2: You're referring to here?

646
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:50,600
Speaker 3: Hey, some are saying that he is basically the same

647
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 3: size as Bryce Young. I I just want to I

648
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 3: just want to throw it out there that Diego Pavia

649
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 3: is a winner.

650
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,280
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be. I think that I could

651
00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: use him in like a Taysom Hill fashion.

652
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 4: Yeah.

653
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's like he just he loves playing football, and

654
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 3: we have seen you know, he got the Shadoor treatment.

655
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 4: And some of that is you know, I.

656
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: Mean he kind of got the treatment, kind of he

657
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 1: kind of got the shoot or treatment.

658
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 4: Well. But loved people loved the fact that he was

659
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 4: not drafted. I will say that, Yeah.

660
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 2: But Chador is a better prospect than Pappy.

661
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,560
Speaker 4: Depends on what you're looking for.

662
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 3: I guess is in the Colorado Hall of Fame, all right, though,

663
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 3: I just want to put that there. Also, we have

664
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 3: word that maybe uh Surrant there is going to be

665
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 3: playing slot for the Ravens.

666
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:41,880
Speaker 2: Yeah.

667
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: There was a Da Casa quote talking about how they

668
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 1: see Elijah Surrat as a good inside player and it's

669
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: so interesting and I wanted to bring this up on

670
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 1: today's show because early in the process, back in like January,

671
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 1: when I really start looking at these prospects in more detail.

672
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: During that time, I'm texting Matt Harmon, who I had

673
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: made fun of earlier. I'm texting him a lot, like

674
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: we're buddies and we're going back and forth about players.

675
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: I'm letting him know what the model is seeing and

676
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: these guys, and he's letting me know what he's seeing

677
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: with these guys. And with Elijah Surrat, it was interesting

678
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:20,000
Speaker 1: because his breakout score I think was like fifth or

679
00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: sixth best in this class. Like it was, it was

680
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 1: pretty strong age justin production and one of the things

681
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 1: that But then he had a really high contested catch

682
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: rate or target rate. And I guess catch rate too

683
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 1: is decent, but his his contested target rate was really high.

684
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 2: And then you go.

685
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,160
Speaker 1: Watch Elijah Surratt and a lot of it last year

686
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: as Mendoza trusting him in these highly contested situations and

687
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 1: just kind of throwing it up like eight to ten

688
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: yards down the field and Elijah Surratt coming down with

689
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 1: the ball.

690
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: And then I looked at his comps in the ZAP model,

691
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 2: and his first two comps, like by far were Michael

692
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,239
Speaker 2: Thomas and Pat Bryant, both guys who were drafted by

693
00:30:57,240 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: Sean Payton.

694
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: So I made the joke that Sean Payton would go

695
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: out for him, but obviously they weren't going to do

696
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: that because they don't they didn't need a guy like Surrat.

697
00:31:04,840 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 2: But both those guys were players who moved into.

698
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,880
Speaker 1: The slot and played a lot of slot and were

699
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: kind of inside out players.

700
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: But found Holmes is a big slot Now, Sean.

701
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: Payton is kind of famous for making you know, Marcus

702
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 1: Colston back in the day. You know, he did it

703
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 1: with Michael Thomas. He has these big slot players that

704
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 1: he's not afraid to use. Pat Bryant played in the

705
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 1: slot a lot last year, but I could have seen

706
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: I could envision that given the production profile so strong.

707
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: But there were some visual things that people were seeing

708
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: about his separation and ability on the perimeter. It did

709
00:31:38,320 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: make sense. You know, Harmon's talked about big slots and

710
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 1: power slots a lot, like he thought key On Coleman

711
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 1: was that, and I think he nailed it. And I

712
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: think that this is the same thing with Elijah Surrat.

713
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: The difference is that it seems like the Ravens understand that,

714
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 1: and that to me.

715
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 2: Is really like being that. Yeah, that to me is

716
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 2: really enticing.

717
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: They lose Isaiah, likely they could use a Surrat as

718
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 1: sort of that kind of player in the middle of

719
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 1: the field. You know, Mark Andrews is older. And then

720
00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 1: they get to Kobe Lane, who I think is a

721
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: very much a perimeter He doesn't separate that well either,

722
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 1: but very much like a perimeter presence that you know,

723
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: as again to say what Harmon would say, like more

724
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: of a sacrificial X in that in that offense, and

725
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 1: then Zay Flowers can kind of move everywhere. So I

726
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: like Surrat, you know, I think that he deserved to

727
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: be up one tier versus the rookie rankings that I published.

728
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 1: I haven't really changed that much with my rookie rankings,

729
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 1: not enough to send an update, and it's just so

730
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: flat that it's not that big of a deal. And

731
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: you can kind of read the prospect profiles to see

732
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 1: how I feel about these guys. But I am really

733
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 1: really interested in Elijah Surat's role within this Ravens offense

734
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: if he is going to be a slot All.

735
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 3: Right, JJ, are you ready to get hurt again? Because

736
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:55,640
Speaker 3: Jonathan Brooks is reportedly close to one percent for the

737
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 3: Carolina Panthers.

738
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm drafting Jonathan Brooks this year. I know,

739
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:04,360
Speaker 1: I know it's gonna happened. He was a good prospect, Yeah,

740
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 1: the model liked him obviously.

741
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 2: He's just had such a hard time, you know, staying healthy.

742
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: But Cheuba Hubbard to me was better down the stretch

743
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 1: last year for sure, but still has the same red

744
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:16,560
Speaker 1: flags that he had going into last year, and those

745
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 1: red flags pointed me to Rico Dwdell And that was

746
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: the reason that I was profitable in Best Ball was

747
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 1: because of my Rico Dawdle exposure. And so if we

748
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 1: continue to.

749
00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: See a big, big gap between Brooks and Shuba.

750
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 1: Hubbard, I will be more in on Brooks than I

751
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: will be on Hubbard. I probably won't fade Hubbard as

752
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: much as I did last year, just because of where

753
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: he goes and what's going on around him and drafts.

754
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 2: And this is obviously I.

755
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: Mean we're recording this at the end of April, so

756
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: I have no idea, but I am interested in Jonathan

757
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 1: Brooks just giving that profile.

758
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 4: Okay, we had word that Jerry Judy was going to

759
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 4: be the bell cow out of Cleveland. Lol.

760
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 3: But I want to add something here. Someone posted this

761
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,680
Speaker 3: in our chat, So if this is fake, just know

762
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 3: that this is in the news and rumors chat, but

763
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,480
Speaker 3: from the Daily News there on Blues.

764
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 4: This is from Lion's Pajamas.

765
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:16,240
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson has the inside track to be named QB

766
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,720
Speaker 3: one per Mary Kay there at the with the Browns beat.

767
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean like she's she's usually yeah, so if

768
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,560
Speaker 1: she said it, yeah, then yeah, yeah, I mean I'm

769
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: not that surprised. It's not like shoud Or Sanders was

770
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 1: that good last year, right, in fact, should Sanders was

771
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:31,480
Speaker 1: bad last year?

772
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 4: Yeah?

773
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, like I I don't think Deshaun

774
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: Watson is that good, but I the one thing I'll

775
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 1: say about Cleveland and the Jets too, but more so Cleveland,

776
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 1: he's a.

777
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 4: Lot about them.

778
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, Is that Todd Munkin is a good offensive coach? Like,

779
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't even think that he's mediocre. Now

780
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,720
Speaker 1: is he gonna be able to be a good NFL

781
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,080
Speaker 1: head coach? I don't know, But from like an offensive

782
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 1: mind standpoint, I.

783
00:34:57,880 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 2: Don't mind Todd Munkin at all.

784
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: And so I'm at least a little intrigued about how

785
00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:05,160
Speaker 1: things can shift and change, you know, year over year

786
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 1: for Cleveland's offense, and maybe he can get something more

787
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:09,480
Speaker 1: out of Deshaun Watson, who knows.

788
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 4: Okay, we spent a lot Jerry Judy stuff.

789
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 1: I'mnna ignore.

790
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 3: I don't care about I just I put Eloa just

791
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,920
Speaker 3: because it's pretty funny. They draft too highly regarded.

792
00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 4: Rookies, rookie receivers.

793
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: But look, Jerry Judy could be out next year with

794
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 1: a given his contract, and Cedric Tillman is a free agent.

795
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: So you know, a lot of teams whenever they draft,

796
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 2: a lot.

797
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 1: Of teams are looking for the following year as oppose

798
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: just this single year. But I think the best wide

799
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: receiver on that team is Casey Concepcio.

800
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,399
Speaker 3: All Right, we spent a lot of time talking about

801
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 3: news and notes, so time to I don't know, maybe.

802
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 4: Stretch because we've got some reaches when we talk about next.

803
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 3: Today's data, all right, these are wide receiver reaches since

804
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen.

805
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:56,280
Speaker 4: JJ.

806
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I just wanted to show you guys the data.

807
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 1: This is something I put on Twitter and then I

808
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: talked about it a little bit at the end of

809
00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,160
Speaker 1: the show the other day. But you can see visually

810
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 1: these are the players who lost four or more points

811
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: in value. Those are av points if you will approximate

812
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: value points from Chase Stewart's value chart of four more

813
00:36:17,040 --> 00:36:21,320
Speaker 1: points for their teams. So this is the thing design shribbling.

814
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 1: I kind of feel bad for him because he didn't

815
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: ask for this. Yeah, Like he didn't ask to be

816
00:36:27,080 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: the thirty third overall pick. I'm sure he's really happy,

817
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 1: but like the dude. Now, like if he busts, you know,

818
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be like, oh, what a huge bust. And

819
00:36:35,080 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 1: but like there's more eyes on him to if you

820
00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:39,080
Speaker 1: were a fourth round pick, it wouldn't be nearly that

821
00:36:39,120 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 1: big of a deal, right, But yeah, I mean, you

822
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 1: can see three of the top five biggest reaches a

823
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:49,720
Speaker 1: wide receiver since twenty sixteen. And this is via NFL

824
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 1: mock Draft database. And I said it at the top

825
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,759
Speaker 1: note to self, talk about why reaches matter but values don't.

826
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,440
Speaker 1: I already talked about that, so we're gonna believe that.

827
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: But the three of the top five eaches since twenty sixteen,

828
00:37:03,520 --> 00:37:06,959
Speaker 1: and this compares the actual value of the NFL pick

829
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: minus where that player was supposed to go in value. Right,

830
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: So not just raw pick, because raw pick doesn't tell

831
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 1: you that much. When you're looking at Day three players

832
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 1: and they go fifty picks higher, that's irrelevant.

833
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:18,520
Speaker 4: Right.

834
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 1: So Corey Davis and Deontay Johnson were the top two

835
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 1: biggest reaches and then you get Caleb Douglas, design Shribbling,

836
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 1: and Xavian Thomas. So you know, you can look at

837
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: this list and you can eyeball it and be like

838
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: this is not the best list, but even when you

839
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:36,839
Speaker 1: compare to how they were expected to perform, like I

840
00:37:36,880 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 1: said on that show earlier this week, the vast majority

841
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: of them underperform versus expectation. I mean, you can see

842
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: it does Fitzpatrick, you know, one of kitchens faves, I'm sure.

843
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:50,920
Speaker 2: You know. And then Kayden Weigen's on here too at

844
00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 2: the bottom.

845
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: The Steelers drafted him pretty early, but he's just a

846
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: special teams guy. But like Johan Dotson, Kenny Galladay was

847
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,320
Speaker 1: one of the hits. Actually, Jalen Raker obviously one of

848
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:05,280
Speaker 1: the biggest draft busts of our you know, era Jalen

849
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:09,080
Speaker 1: heard another forty nine Ers player that they drafted.

850
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 2: Cardinal Tates on here.

851
00:38:10,320 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, and a lot of that has to do with

852
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 1: the fact that it's just an early round pick. I mean,

853
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 1: Corey Davis, you could argue it's the same kind of deal,

854
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: but it is a little bit, you know, something to

855
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:20,839
Speaker 1: keep in mind with Cardinal Tate.

856
00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: I saw a Facebook memory where I was like, Corey

857
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 4: Davis so miles ahead of all the.

858
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 3: Other wide receivers, and I'm just like, I hope that's

859
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 3: not It was like literally the day after they drafted Tait.

860
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 3: I will say, though des Fitzpatrick I did not like

861
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 3: that pick. You know, I liked more than des Fitzpatrick

862
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 3: in the fourth round.

863
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,080
Speaker 4: Who's that a mon Ross? Saint Brown?

864
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:44,880
Speaker 1: Oh?

865
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 2: Was that the same Drave I don't even remember.

866
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 3: Yes, it was, I remember clearly, so you know what

867
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: could have been. It's all right, let's get on to it.

868
00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:55,520
Speaker 3: It's the main event.

869
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:57,360
Speaker 2: It's the late round, main event.

870
00:38:58,560 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 1: I think we should shield some of the stuff, some

871
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: of the future picks here that are showing.

872
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 4: Up on the list. All right, I'll shield it.

873
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:07,319
Speaker 2: Now, you guys know.

874
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna look at my rankings versus current

875
00:39:13,719 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: average draft position.

876
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 2: I pulled this from Dynasty Data Lab.

877
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 1: Which is a great resource for ADP and this is

878
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 1: for drafts that have happened Monday and Tuesday, approximately eleven

879
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:24,440
Speaker 1: hundred drafts.

880
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: And this is super flex.

881
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 1: It's a lot easier to talk super flex this year

882
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: because there's only like one quarterback we care about, and

883
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 1: then maybe Ty Simpson and then a bunch of second rounders.

884
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:35,799
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna talk about some of those guys later

885
00:39:35,840 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: in the show. Let's compare. Okay, the first guy in

886
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 1: this list that I think is important to talk about

887
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: and call out. I'm not just going with like second

888
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 1: rounders and third rounders. And I also didn't want to

889
00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: do that because there's a lot of variation with round

890
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 1: two and Round three rookie picks this year that even

891
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:56,240
Speaker 1: if I have them ranked relatively different, it's still really

892
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 1: flat and it's not as big of a deal. I mean,

893
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:00,400
Speaker 1: I think one of my stands that I've take is

894
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,439
Speaker 1: that and they're in the same tier to be fair,

895
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 1: but I do have Jordan Tyson above Fernanda Mendoza and

896
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 1: Carnal Tait. Jordan Tyson ended up with a Prospect score

897
00:40:11,640 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: a Zapp score of ninety six in the model. Carnel

898
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 1: Tait was a little bit below that, and technically they

899
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 1: are in two different categories. Jordan Tyson was a legendary

900
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 1: performer and Carnal Tate is an elite producer. Now I

901
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: got a tweet and I got a question about this,

902
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,359
Speaker 1: where the tweet was something along the lines of like

903
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 1: how high would Cardinal Tate have to go in order

904
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 1: to be an elite producer.

905
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:35,719
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be looking at it that way.

906
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 1: Don't look at the categories as like, oh you have

907
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: like CARNL Tait at a score of eighty eight and

908
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 1: elite producers start at ninety.

909
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 2: He's not far off from being an elite producer, right.

910
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 1: So it's like those categories and those buckets are there

911
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,200
Speaker 1: for you to be able to quickly glance and understand

912
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: how the model is generally viewing these players and what

913
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,240
Speaker 1: these scores and these score ranges generally mean. I could

914
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:04,120
Speaker 1: change the range of these of these categories and do

915
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:07,719
Speaker 1: it arbitrarily and it wouldn't change the like how they

916
00:41:07,719 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 1: score and what these players actually are.

917
00:41:09,560 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 2: So the one thing I'll say, though, I think Jordan.

918
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: Tyson is the better prospect compared to Carnell Tate at

919
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:16,720
Speaker 1: the very least, I think he has a higher ceiling

920
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 1: than him. I don't mind the fit at all with

921
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 1: New Orleans. I talked about that on the show that

922
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: dropped on Monday. And let's just talk about his breakout score,

923
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,720
Speaker 1: which is the number one driver for a production standpoint

924
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 1: in the model. Breakout score is schedule and age adjusted

925
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: receiving guards per team pass attempt. It's a score from

926
00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: zero to one hundred, and Jordan Tyson had a ninety

927
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 1: nine percentile breakout score breakout score correlates just as well

928
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: to draft capital for top one hundred wide receivers and

929
00:41:44,000 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 1: their success in the NFL since twenty eleven. So it's

930
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 1: a very very important metric, and only nine ZAP model

931
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 1: wide receivers draft in the top twenty have had a

932
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:57,320
Speaker 1: mark a breakout score above ninety Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins,

933
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:01,839
Speaker 1: Amari Cooper, Corey Davis. Okay, some bus in there, Lamb

934
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,120
Speaker 1: Jamar Chase, Chris Alave, Jackson Smith and Jigbum Malik Neighbors.

935
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 1: I mean it is that like when you hear that list,

936
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,839
Speaker 1: you might be like, oh, you know, Sammy Watkins wasn't

937
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:12,600
Speaker 1: that great, which sure, you know he didn't have the

938
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:13,720
Speaker 1: best career in the world.

939
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,319
Speaker 2: Or Corey Davis was a bust. Okay, I get it.

940
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 1: Wide receivers are going like, we're not talking top twenty

941
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: draft capital at running back where you're just gonna see

942
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,759
Speaker 1: hit after hit after hit. Wide receivers, there's going to

943
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:26,359
Speaker 1: be a lot more variance with who hits and who

944
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 1: doesn't that in the in the in the context of

945
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 1: being a wide receiver ranking if you will, or group

946
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:35,319
Speaker 1: is a really great group to be part of for

947
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 1: a prospect, and for a wide receiver prospect. So to me,

948
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 1: Jordan Tyson, I would take him one oh two in superflex.

949
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 1: You could argue Mendoza if you really want a quarterback.

950
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 1: But I do like Tyson more than Carnell Tate. Do

951
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 1: I like him a ton more than Tate? No, they're

952
00:42:50,440 --> 00:42:52,480
Speaker 1: in the same tier, But I would take Tyson over

953
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,840
Speaker 1: Tate if I had one dynasty.

954
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the next one. I

955
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 4: have shielded the rest of these picks.

956
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,959
Speaker 1: Casey Conceptsion, Yeah, I had a feeling this was gonna

957
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:08,240
Speaker 1: happen with Conceptscione, where you know, I have him ranked

958
00:43:08,239 --> 00:43:10,560
Speaker 1: one ZHO six and super flex he goes one oh eight,

959
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: And that might not seem like that big of a difference,

960
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 1: but it's relatively big when you're talking about just two picks,

961
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 1: and he you know, he'll go after Sadik. I think

962
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: he has a lower ADP than at this.

963
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:21,839
Speaker 2: Moment, and I would not be doing that.

964
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 1: I think that Conceptcione is not far off as a

965
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: prospect compared to Makhaya Lemon. In fact, the zapp model

966
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 1: has like one point separating the two. I would still

967
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:34,920
Speaker 1: prefer Lemon, but I think Conceptsione is a really good player.

968
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:37,800
Speaker 1: I like the fit with Todd Munkin, and what Munkin

969
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: was able to do is Zay Flowers, who if you squint,

970
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,320
Speaker 1: you know you could you could maybe make the argument

971
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:45,359
Speaker 1: like Conceptscion's like a better, bigger version.

972
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,880
Speaker 2: Of but he got good draft capital.

973
00:43:48,160 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 1: There is lots of competition, But like I said earlier,

974
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:53,880
Speaker 1: Cleveland's wide receiver room could be without Jerry Judy and

975
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: Cedric Tillman as early as next year.

976
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 2: Not only that, Cleveland's probably not gonna be very good, and.

977
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: So They're gonna probably go out and get quarterback and

978
00:44:00,640 --> 00:44:03,720
Speaker 1: that could completely change the dynamic of this offense. Whereas

979
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 1: you know, a guy like Mkaye Lemon, who I do

980
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: have higher, but Jalen.

981
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 2: Hurts is probably their quarterback for the immediate future more

982
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 2: than likely.

983
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: And we know that that Jalen Hurts offenses have been

984
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: more run heavy. They have not had a single season

985
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: with a pass rate over expected above zero. And so

986
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: you know, I think Jalen Hurts as a quarterback is

987
00:44:24,480 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 1: probably better than anything Cleveland's gonna get, like from a

988
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 1: median's outcome standpoint. But at the same time, I think Conceptcione,

989
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 1: you know, could get a better quarterback eventually on that team,

990
00:44:34,560 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: and also, you know, could just be the best in

991
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: the number one target on his team, whereas it might

992
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 1: be a little bit more for McKay Lemon to climb

993
00:44:44,120 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 1: with DeVante Smith. I'm not making the argument that Conceptsion

994
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: is better than Lemon as a pick, but I am

995
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 1: making the argument that they belong in the same tier,

996
00:44:51,000 --> 00:44:53,000
Speaker 1: and I am making the argument that Casey Conceptsion is

997
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 1: a little bit undervalved.

998
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:58,000
Speaker 4: Okay, get to the next one.

999
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:00,400
Speaker 2: This is fun because I don't even remember who next.

1000
00:45:00,440 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 1: Antonio Antonio Williams, a guy that I drafted in the

1001
00:45:03,280 --> 00:45:06,480
Speaker 1: late round league right before we hopped on Nice Show.

1002
00:45:06,560 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, because I have Jayden Daniels, so I was able

1003
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:09,759
Speaker 2: to to stack him up.

1004
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 1: Antonio Williams a really interesting player to me because his

1005
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 1: analytical profile is solid but not outstanding, because he started

1006
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 1: producing really early in his collegiate career at Clemson and

1007
00:45:22,560 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 1: then it just never got significantly better.

1008
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 2: Now we talked about Antonio Williams, you remember.

1009
00:45:27,719 --> 00:45:30,960
Speaker 1: Like like a month and a half ago, maybe liked

1010
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:36,160
Speaker 1: him more than Yeah. Compared ADP bestball ADP to my

1011
00:45:36,239 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 1: rookie rankings, and he was the biggest gap in terms

1012
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:42,120
Speaker 1: of my rookie rankings pre draft. Liking Antonio Williams more

1013
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:45,040
Speaker 1: than where he was going in redraft, and I still

1014
00:45:45,080 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 1: like him more because the landing spot is super interesting.

1015
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: His top comp in the ZAP model was Lad mconkie. Now,

1016
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:56,440
Speaker 1: McConkie had a better you know, open the hood. Look

1017
00:45:56,480 --> 00:45:58,239
Speaker 1: at his yards per route run, look at his per

1018
00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 1: route run numbers that aren't going in the ZAPP model.

1019
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 1: Ladd McConkey looked better there. But both players had comparable

1020
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 1: breakout scores, had comparable you know, versatility in their production

1021
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,600
Speaker 1: profiles where they would get some you know, end to

1022
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 1: rounds and get some work on the.

1023
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 2: Ground and so.

1024
00:46:15,680 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 1: And they were similarly sized, and you know, Ladd was

1025
00:46:18,160 --> 00:46:20,239
Speaker 1: projected to be a slot but he didn't play as

1026
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: much in the slot. The thing is, Antonio Williams played

1027
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:24,719
Speaker 1: a lot in the slot seventy eight percent slot rate

1028
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: in college.

1029
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 2: That's a little bit harder to project, you know.

1030
00:46:28,200 --> 00:46:31,360
Speaker 1: With mconkey, it was like, Okay, he might not have

1031
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 1: played a ton in the slot, but he's a smaller dude,

1032
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 1: so we're going to project him for the slot. But

1033
00:46:35,200 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 1: at least he had more experience playing on the outside.

1034
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 1: Antonio Williams doesn't have as much of that experience. There's

1035
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 1: much more of a projection that has to go on here.

1036
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:44,839
Speaker 1: But they've already come out and said that he could

1037
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:48,880
Speaker 1: play slot and Z opposite of Terry McLaurin in this offense.

1038
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 1: And right now when you look at the offense, they

1039
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 1: don't have anything outside of those guys. Now, Brandon Ayuk

1040
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 1: might sign there, we'll see. But I think that the

1041
00:46:58,080 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 1: landing spot, combined with so much so many question marks

1042
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: a wide receiver in this class. I like Antonio Williams

1043
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: a little bit above Adp.

1044
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,320
Speaker 4: All right, j Jay, this next person?

1045
00:47:10,880 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 3: Uh man, there are gonna be possibly some accusations here.

1046
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe because you have Jeremy Bernard. Is this a

1047
00:47:20,000 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 4: home er pick?

1048
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:21,520
Speaker 2: No?

1049
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 4: I mean, look this, you've had Lemon there.

1050
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 2: This is a This is a pick that I just

1051
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:31,120
Speaker 2: find interesting.

1052
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: Like the model doesn't mind Jeremy Bernard, doesn't love him,

1053
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,480
Speaker 1: but doesn't mind him. Saw him as like a comparable

1054
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 1: prospect to Denzel Boston, two different types of prospects. But

1055
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 1: from a score perspective, he goes in like the late

1056
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:47,120
Speaker 1: seconds sometimes I think people are being really shortsighted about

1057
00:47:47,360 --> 00:47:50,800
Speaker 1: this landing spot for Pittsburgh. Where Number one, Mike McCarthy's

1058
00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: actually favored slot receivers in his history, so that's good.

1059
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: Number Two, I think that he can play both inside out,

1060
00:47:57,480 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 1: but he's definitely gonna start in the slot with with

1061
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 1: Michael Pittman and DK Metcalf there, but they have an

1062
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 1: out in both of those contracts as soon as next season, right,

1063
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: So it's it's just an interesting profile, especially when you

1064
00:48:09,560 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 1: give some of his production metrics some context. He played

1065
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: at Michigan State, and when he was there he played

1066
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:17,359
Speaker 1: with Keon Coleman and Jayden Reid. He then played it

1067
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 1: in Washington with Jalen McMillan, Roma Dunza and Jalen Polk

1068
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 1: and Denzel Boston by the way, where he had a

1069
00:48:23,680 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 1: better yards parah run than Denzel Boston on that team,

1070
00:48:27,560 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 1: and then he played with Ryan Williams. I mean, like,

1071
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 1: he's played with legitimate wide receiver competition and he's still.

1072
00:48:33,360 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 2: Put up respectable numbers, you know, despite that.

1073
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 1: So I think Bernard is you know, in most drafts,

1074
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:42,479
Speaker 1: he'd be like a late second, early third, maybe even,

1075
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 1: but at least like a late second, you know, rookie pick,

1076
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: and now he goes two five on average, but I've

1077
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:50,800
Speaker 1: seen him go even way later than that. He's probably

1078
00:48:50,800 --> 00:48:53,440
Speaker 1: not gonna dominate. He's probably not gonna be a stud.

1079
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:55,279
Speaker 1: And maybe that's playing a role here because I don't

1080
00:48:55,280 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: think that he's gonna be like a super high volume

1081
00:48:57,400 --> 00:49:00,399
Speaker 1: and highly productive player. But if you need like a floor,

1082
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 1: if you're in like a deep dynasty league, I think

1083
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:04,319
Speaker 1: Jeremy Bernard makes a lot of sense where you have

1084
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,320
Speaker 1: like a lot of guys you're starting in your starting roster.

1085
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,280
Speaker 3: Okay, well, at least that will be the last Steeler

1086
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:11,360
Speaker 3: on this list.

1087
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 4: Oh wait, you've got.

1088
00:49:14,719 --> 00:49:19,919
Speaker 3: Carson yeah, which I agree with this take.

1089
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. So look the Drew Aller thing.

1090
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:25,000
Speaker 1: I have him ranked lower in my Dynasty rankings now,

1091
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 1: like I'm getting my rankings out for the prospect guy

1092
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:30,520
Speaker 1: like immediately after the draft, and uh, you know, it's

1093
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,600
Speaker 1: it's hard to like there's no consensus at all. I'm

1094
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 1: putting those rankings together without knowing what anyone feels. And

1095
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:40,200
Speaker 1: then on top of that, you know, it's just it's

1096
00:49:40,239 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 1: just there, like things.

1097
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: Can change as I start thinking about this stuff.

1098
00:49:43,480 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 1: Carson Beck though I think he's gonna get a start

1099
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:46,959
Speaker 1: this year.

1100
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 2: Like, I think he's going to play at some point

1101
00:49:49,640 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 2: this season.

1102
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and anytime you see that in super Flex, that

1103
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:57,359
Speaker 1: becomes valuable just just naturally. Right with Drew Aller, it's

1104
00:49:57,640 --> 00:49:59,759
Speaker 1: this is a Mike McCarthy situation. You know, it's a

1105
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 1: brand new coaching staff. They didn't draft Will Howard, so

1106
00:50:03,080 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 1: maybe they'll be able to work with the tools and stuff.

1107
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, like I think Aler probably should

1108
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: be more third round, but Carson Beck, to me and

1109
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:11,160
Speaker 1: super Flex should be a second round pick because the

1110
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:14,560
Speaker 1: opportunity cost and getting a player like that is so

1111
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 1: small given this draft class.

1112
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 2: Yes, the the hit rate for.

1113
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: Him is so small, but I also think you're gonna

1114
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 1: potentially gain value with Carson Beck towards the end of

1115
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: this year, and you could flip him before the offseason starts,

1116
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 1: when Arizona's probably not gonna be a very good team

1117
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 1: and they're gonna be linked to a bunch of quarterbacks

1118
00:50:32,000 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: in next year's class.

1119
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Beck not only has an option to like start

1120
00:50:36,680 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 3: later in the season, he could start at the beginning

1121
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 3: of the season.

1122
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 2: Maybean, especially with the Jacobe Brissett st right.

1123
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,239
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not gonna expect that to happen, but

1124
00:50:43,239 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 1: I think that he, Like I wonder what his if

1125
00:50:45,520 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 1: his over under starts this year's point five, I'd take

1126
00:50:48,080 --> 00:50:48,439
Speaker 1: the over.

1127
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,680
Speaker 4: I think it's more than point five from what I saw.

1128
00:50:52,760 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 4: We'll have to take a look at that, all right.

1129
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,919
Speaker 3: Next, we've got Eli Rarid and there were a lot

1130
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:03,920
Speaker 3: of smoke that the Patriots We're gonna take stours in

1131
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 3: the second or at the end of the first round.

1132
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:09,319
Speaker 4: That did not happen. They get to Eli Raridon.

1133
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,400
Speaker 2: Though, I'm kind of shocked by Raredan's ADP.

1134
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 4: I am too.

1135
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 3: I'm actually like I drafted him in a few drafts

1136
00:51:16,760 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 3: and a few Beastball drafts afterwards, in the late rounds too,

1137
00:51:20,400 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 3: just because like you've got an aging Hunter Henry there,

1138
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 3: and this guy is a pass catching back or pass

1139
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 3: getting tight end.

1140
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:30,440
Speaker 1: You also don't have like the most robust wide receiver room.

1141
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:31,880
Speaker 1: I mean, they're gonna get a J. Brown, I think

1142
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:34,720
Speaker 1: Romeo Dobbs, those two can play in two wide receiver sets.

1143
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 1: But you know they have Kyle Williams and Kishan Boudi

1144
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: where there's rumors that they're trying to get Rid of Booty. Uh,

1145
00:51:40,680 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 1: you know they have They have some slot guys and

1146
00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:44,880
Speaker 1: like Chisholm and the Mario Douglass and stuff, but none

1147
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,360
Speaker 1: of them are like scary, right, even Romeo Dobbs. I

1148
00:51:47,400 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 1: don't think it's that scary of a wide receiver like

1149
00:51:49,400 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 1: that was my take when they signed him. It's just

1150
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: like it's uninspiring.

1151
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:55,880
Speaker 2: Like I think he's a good solid wide out, but

1152
00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 2: from a fantasy perspective, he's not gonna command a twenty

1153
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 2: five percent target share even and if they didn't get

1154
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 2: aj Brown.

1155
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:04,560
Speaker 1: But now they get a player in Raridan who look

1156
00:52:04,640 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 1: is forty yard dash eightieth percentile among ZA Model tight ends.

1157
00:52:07,960 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 1: Height adjustin speed score eighty fourth percentile, which is the

1158
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:12,920
Speaker 1: one of the metrics that goes into the model. His

1159
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 1: best season in yards per team passing time seventy first percentile.

1160
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 2: His breakout score.

1161
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 1: Which is agent schedule adjusted seventy fourth percentile. So he

1162
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:23,759
Speaker 1: was productive and relatively athletic. And now he's on a

1163
00:52:23,760 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 1: team with Drake May and Hunter Henry's a free agent

1164
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:26,839
Speaker 1: next year.

1165
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:30,080
Speaker 2: So to me, Eli Ridan's the tight end three in

1166
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 2: this class.

1167
00:52:30,560 --> 00:52:34,560
Speaker 1: I have him behind Kenyon Sadik and Eli Stowers, and

1168
00:52:34,600 --> 00:52:36,359
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit surprised that he goes as late

1169
00:52:36,360 --> 00:52:37,920
Speaker 1: as he does in rookie drafts.

1170
00:52:39,800 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 3: All right, so let's package these next two together. We

1171
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 3: talked about the reaches earlier Kayln Black and a Jon Striplin.

1172
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:49,440
Speaker 1: I'm shockingly ahead of market on the forty nine ers guys.

1173
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 1: And I don't mean that as in go out and

1174
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 1: get them. I just mean I want to talk about

1175
00:52:54,239 --> 00:52:56,760
Speaker 1: this for a second because it's a little bit strange,

1176
00:52:56,760 --> 00:52:58,799
Speaker 1: and I don't think either of them are very good prospects.

1177
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 1: But this is just the nature of this class where

1178
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 1: I'm going to let draft capital, situation, whatever the case

1179
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 1: may be, influence this a little bit, because the opportunity

1180
00:53:09,239 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 1: cost is other players who I think aren't very good,

1181
00:53:12,480 --> 00:53:15,600
Speaker 1: that you know, are in worst landing spots. Right, So

1182
00:53:16,040 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 1: with Kaylon Black, my ADP or sorry, my rank is

1183
00:53:20,200 --> 00:53:21,799
Speaker 1: in the middle of the third, is ADP is the

1184
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:25,399
Speaker 1: early fourth, and then with the shribbling, I'm about three

1185
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 1: spots higher than where he gets drafted. Right with Kaylon Black,

1186
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to just like shorthand this

1187
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:36,319
Speaker 1: and explain why I wouldn't like him long term or

1188
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:38,960
Speaker 1: don't love him, he's a twenty four and a half

1189
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 1: year old running back that has good size but does not.

1190
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 2: Have a receiving profile, or at least a strong receiving profile.

1191
00:53:45,480 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 1: That's that's those are both big red flags. But again,

1192
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:51,560
Speaker 1: this class sucks. Not only that Kyle Shanahan has a

1193
00:53:51,600 --> 00:53:54,040
Speaker 1: really bad history with these running backs and these guys

1194
00:53:54,040 --> 00:53:56,719
Speaker 1: that he takes in round three. So like, overall, yes,

1195
00:53:56,800 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 1: Kaylon Black very scary, but you get to a point

1196
00:54:00,120 --> 00:54:02,719
Speaker 1: where the opportunity costs is a lot of scary like

1197
00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:05,919
Speaker 1: irrelevant guys that I just don't have any hope for.

1198
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,600
Speaker 1: So I'm just calling that out in that at least

1199
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 1: the situation's good design stribbling. Let's talk about him for

1200
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 1: a little bit, because I think he's a little bit

1201
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 1: more enticing as a prospect at his position than Kaylon

1202
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 1: Black is to his because a lot of the day

1203
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:23,680
Speaker 1: two wide receivers I've said this a million times, had

1204
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:28,320
Speaker 1: pretty crummy analytical profiles. They're not profiles that I'm jumping

1205
00:54:28,320 --> 00:54:31,239
Speaker 1: for joy over, even like Chris Bell. I think Chris

1206
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,520
Speaker 1: Bell has an interesting ceiling. I ranked him pretty high,

1207
00:54:35,000 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 1: but I also recognize that his overall analytical profile is

1208
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:42,279
Speaker 1: not that strong. Jacoby Lane. It's fine, it's just not

1209
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: unbelievably strong. There's just dudes, it's one wide receiver after

1210
00:54:46,160 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 1: another who just have these kind of like uninspiring analytical profiles.

1211
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 1: So can I sit here and say a fiftieth breakout

1212
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:57,879
Speaker 1: fiftieth percentile breakout score is better than a thirty first

1213
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:01,040
Speaker 1: percentile breakout score. Yes, and that's why I ranked a

1214
00:55:01,040 --> 00:55:03,960
Speaker 1: lot of those guys ahead of a design Stribling. But

1215
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: can I sit here and say that there's such a

1216
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:08,479
Speaker 1: significant difference that you absolutely have to take those guys

1217
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:12,400
Speaker 1: over Stribling. No, you know, like, realistically, a fortieth to

1218
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 1: fiftieth percentile breakout score it's better, but it's not so

1219
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:19,320
Speaker 1: dramatically better that you have to absolutely make that choice.

1220
00:55:19,360 --> 00:55:21,919
Speaker 1: Then you layer on, you know, the situation that he's

1221
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:25,439
Speaker 1: in is not bad. Uh, And the draft CAPA league

1222
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,520
Speaker 1: got was excellent, and you can understand why you should

1223
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:30,960
Speaker 1: throw that dart at the end of round two and

1224
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 1: into round three on Stribling in a super flex lee.

1225
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,720
Speaker 1: That being said, let's look at the negatives. Since twenty

1226
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:40,960
Speaker 1: eighteen top one hundred draft picks greater than twenty two

1227
00:55:41,040 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 1: years old, Stripling is over twenty three. I think the

1228
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 1: chance of Stribling hitting is are very small, so he's

1229
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 1: so this is a top one hundred pick older than

1230
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 1: twenty two, less than a forty breakout score and less

1231
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 1: than a two point zero career yards per out run rate.

1232
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:00,959
Speaker 1: I'll just read the list Dante Pettis, Jalen Heard, Miles Boyk,

1233
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 1: and Terry McLaurin. He's always the outlier of outliers when

1234
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 1: I do these queries Van Jefferson, Dayles Jones, Michael Wilson.

1235
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:10,879
Speaker 2: But he was also very easy to.

1236
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 1: Acquire before this past year took him, took him a minute,

1237
00:56:14,080 --> 00:56:17,680
Speaker 1: Xavier Lagette, Jalen Polk, Ricky Piersall. Has he done anything

1238
00:56:17,719 --> 00:56:21,400
Speaker 1: yet though? Saveon Williams, Jack Besh, Caleb Douglass and.

1239
00:56:21,400 --> 00:56:25,880
Speaker 2: De Stribbling, It's not It's just not a good list.

1240
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 2: So I fully understand the the the uh.

1241
00:56:31,000 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: The hit rate here for a profile like this is

1242
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:36,040
Speaker 1: very very small, but you have to look at it

1243
00:56:36,080 --> 00:56:38,399
Speaker 1: when you're when you're looking at game theory and you're

1244
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:41,600
Speaker 1: looking at the ADP board, you have to say to yourself, Okay,

1245
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: but what about this guy is going after him?

1246
00:56:44,480 --> 00:56:47,480
Speaker 2: Is his hit rate very high? No, it's not. I mean,

1247
00:56:47,520 --> 00:56:49,440
Speaker 2: that's that's what we're looking at with these day two

1248
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:50,239
Speaker 2: wide receivers.

1249
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:52,520
Speaker 1: Like the majority of them, if not all of them,

1250
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:55,120
Speaker 1: have major, major red flags.

1251
00:56:55,440 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 2: And that's why rookie drafts just kind of sucked this year.

1252
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 4: All right, let's say goodbye, jj uh. I did go.

1253
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:11,760
Speaker 3: Back and look and sure enough Deshaun Watt Watson that

1254
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:14,080
Speaker 3: that report was true, that they think that he has

1255
00:57:14,120 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 3: the inside track to be QB one. That was a

1256
00:57:17,760 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 3: guy I mean, and you talk about best baller lately.

1257
00:57:21,600 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 2: A few years ago I drafted a lot of Deshon

1258
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 2: wat Oh.

1259
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:24,960
Speaker 4: I did too. I am like this.

1260
00:57:25,280 --> 00:57:28,560
Speaker 3: It became a part of my brand, unfortunately, because I

1261
00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:31,560
Speaker 3: thought that he was such a good value. So you know,

1262
00:57:31,760 --> 00:57:34,760
Speaker 3: sometimes we learn, sometimes we don't, and we'll see what

1263
00:57:34,840 --> 00:57:38,560
Speaker 3: happens there. I will say, though, we've got the late

1264
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:42,960
Speaker 3: Round newsletter that has been going out to free lateround

1265
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:45,160
Speaker 3: dot com. You can go there to sign up for that.

1266
00:57:45,400 --> 00:57:48,400
Speaker 3: You can also go to lightround dot com for the

1267
00:57:48,440 --> 00:57:52,280
Speaker 3: Patreon link to join our community, get in a discord.

1268
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:56,840
Speaker 3: And then we got the Prospect Guide over there as well.

1269
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:59,640
Speaker 4: JJ. Do you have any final thoughts?

1270
00:58:00,280 --> 00:58:03,920
Speaker 1: Look there there's content everywhere, right, I don't even mean

1271
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: for late round Fantasy football, but in general in general,

1272
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 1: Like I get that there's content everywhere. I can at

1273
00:58:10,000 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: least tell you guys that I try to be as

1274
00:58:12,320 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 1: thoughtful as I possibly can with the prospect and content.

1275
00:58:15,440 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 1: Like I said at the top, things are going to

1276
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:19,960
Speaker 1: be wrong. That's just the nature of prospecting. But we

1277
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:21,760
Speaker 1: want to be directionally right. And I know that the

1278
00:58:21,800 --> 00:58:25,200
Speaker 1: model is really strong, and I feel good about what

1279
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 1: we did. I feel great about what we did, you know,

1280
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 1: with the prospect guy, you know, getting it out on

1281
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:30,200
Speaker 1: Saturday night.

1282
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 2: We worked really hard and doing that and I hope

1283
00:58:32,920 --> 00:58:35,320
Speaker 2: that it really showed. And then shout out.

1284
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 4: To Godula again. I know, yes, you know, he's he

1285
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 4: did great.

1286
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:42,360
Speaker 3: And this was such a clutch year to have him

1287
00:58:42,400 --> 00:58:43,640
Speaker 3: help with tight end profile.

1288
00:58:43,520 --> 00:58:45,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, because the tight end stuff was just crazy. So

1289
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 1: he did an awesome job writing up or rewriting up.

1290
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,800
Speaker 1: He actually wrote up every single tight end that was drafted.

1291
00:58:52,280 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there were a lot, so he he crushed it.

1292
00:58:57,640 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 1: And I'm really excited for what we're going to be

1293
00:58:59,880 --> 00:59:02,120
Speaker 1: doing with late round because I feel like this is

1294
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:02,720
Speaker 1: kind of like a.

1295
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 2: Turn the page moment.

1296
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 1: With the football calendar, and I'm incredibly excited for what

1297
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 1: we're gonna be doing with Late Round Fantasy Football, and

1298
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 1: you guys are going to see a lot of that

1299
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:15,840
Speaker 1: over the next two or.

1300
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 3: Three weeks, hopefully a little little teaser from JJ. So yeah,

1301
00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:21,840
Speaker 3: make sure that you are following us on our socials.

1302
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:22,959
Speaker 4: Got a lot of.

1303
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:27,840
Speaker 3: Fun stuff coming up, DJ's it'll it will be a

1304
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 3: very fun off season. So we appreciate everyone for tuning in,

1305
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 3: for being interactive, and we love you all. We love

1306
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:40,640
Speaker 3: you all, and we'll see you next time here on

1307
00:59:40,680 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 3: the Late Round Fantasy Football Show.