WEBVTT - Life After Poker (with Vanessa Selbst) 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:24.444 Pushkin. Hey everyone, Maria here with an exciting opportunity for 0:00:24.524 --> 0:00:27.284 any of our listeners who are also new poker players. 0:00:27.924 --> 0:00:30.244 Nate and I are looking for a beginning player who 0:00:30.324 --> 0:00:33.604 is heading to this year's World Series of Poker. We 0:00:33.724 --> 0:00:36.244 might want to talk with you before the tournament, hear 0:00:36.324 --> 0:00:40.404 your story, maybe even offer you some advice. Reach out 0:00:40.444 --> 0:00:44.724 to Risky Business at Pushkin dot FM if you're interested. 0:00:45.484 --> 0:00:48.844 No guarantees, but here comes our first piece of advice. 0:00:49.404 --> 0:01:00.604 It's plus ev to send that email. Welcome back to 0:01:00.684 --> 0:01:04.924 Risky Business, a show about making better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova. 0:01:04.684 --> 0:01:05.564 And I'm Nate Selver. 0:01:06.044 --> 0:01:09.324 Today on the show, we have a very special guest, 0:01:09.564 --> 0:01:13.804 Vanessa Celtst. Vanessa and I first met when we were 0:01:14.004 --> 0:01:18.484 both Poker Stars Team pros. I was just starting out 0:01:18.524 --> 0:01:21.164 playing poker and Vanessa was just getting the hell out 0:01:21.164 --> 0:01:25.964 of there. And Vanessa remains one of the most impressive 0:01:25.964 --> 0:01:29.084 people I have ever met in or out of poker. 0:01:29.604 --> 0:01:35.204 Yale undergrad Yale Law School, only female poker player ever 0:01:35.364 --> 0:01:38.764 to have reached number one on the GPI that's Global 0:01:38.844 --> 0:01:44.124 Poker Index rankings overall. So both men and women like 0:01:44.244 --> 0:01:47.884 just number one, period, but only female to have ever 0:01:47.964 --> 0:01:51.524 done that, over eleven million in earnings, three World Series 0:01:51.564 --> 0:01:55.284 of Poker bracelets, and then left it all behind, left 0:01:55.364 --> 0:02:00.724 that glamorous life behind to join Bridgewater Associates and go 0:02:00.844 --> 0:02:04.684 into the Hedge fun world, after which she went to 0:02:04.924 --> 0:02:09.284 Jane Street Capital, which is where we find her today. 0:02:09.724 --> 0:02:11.324 Welcome to the show, Vanessa. 0:02:11.164 --> 0:02:16.204 Thanks Maria, thank you for that intros. Definitely more than 0:02:16.244 --> 0:02:18.724 I deserve, but I appreciate nonetheless. 0:02:19.564 --> 0:02:21.164 And Nate, how long have you known Vanessa? 0:02:22.044 --> 0:02:24.364 I think I knew her kind of about the time, 0:02:24.684 --> 0:02:27.004 maybe when she quit, maybe I reached out and I'm like, oh, 0:02:27.124 --> 0:02:29.004 you know, if you've kind of left poke for other things, 0:02:29.284 --> 0:02:31.484 I know, since it was stupid cold email, I think, 0:02:31.524 --> 0:02:33.644 and we wound up becoming friends and we have a 0:02:33.684 --> 0:02:35.884 lot in common, and so I'm a huge admirer of 0:02:36.004 --> 0:02:36.924 Vanessa as well. 0:02:37.284 --> 0:02:40.164 That's not right at all, Nate. We met at a 0:02:40.284 --> 0:02:43.684 really awkward well, my wife was joking, was like a 0:02:43.724 --> 0:02:46.044 really awkward date. You don't remember this? And a Aussie 0:02:46.084 --> 0:02:46.724 millions and. 0:02:46.724 --> 0:02:49.124 Like, oh millions, Okay, when are we. 0:02:49.284 --> 0:02:51.404 Twelve or twenty fourteen? I don't even know what year 0:02:51.404 --> 0:02:54.124 it was, but like I don't know the people at 0:02:54.164 --> 0:02:57.284 Astie Millions were like, Nate Silver wants to meet you. 0:02:57.404 --> 0:02:58.644 I was like, oh, I want to meet him. And 0:02:58.684 --> 0:03:01.444 then we went on like like at dinner, but it 0:03:01.484 --> 0:03:03.404 was just like super awkward and funny, but like it 0:03:03.444 --> 0:03:04.004 was a good time. 0:03:04.084 --> 0:03:05.044 I suppressed it. 0:03:08.204 --> 0:03:10.524 And then that was when we first hung out, but 0:03:10.524 --> 0:03:12.044 then we didn't really start hanging out till a few 0:03:12.124 --> 0:03:14.124 years later, so I just didn't know. That was a 0:03:14.204 --> 0:03:17.844 very special one of my awkwardest states that I've ever had, 0:03:17.924 --> 0:03:21.284 so I guess it was more meaningfully awkward to me, 0:03:21.404 --> 0:03:23.564 but that's okay, it was it was a good time. 0:03:23.764 --> 0:03:25.804 So I actually I remember the first time I met 0:03:25.844 --> 0:03:29.204 you was in Monte Carlo. It was my first ever 0:03:29.244 --> 0:03:33.324 Poker Stars stop and it was my first ever major, 0:03:33.444 --> 0:03:37.564 kind of major tournament period. I knew, you know, I 0:03:37.604 --> 0:03:41.404 had known nothing about poker and kind of there I was, 0:03:41.524 --> 0:03:45.844 and Eric Sidell introduced us. Eric Sidell, obviously you know 0:03:45.924 --> 0:03:48.444 who he is, and listeners of the show, no, he is, 0:03:48.484 --> 0:03:50.204 you know, one of the greatest players of all time 0:03:50.564 --> 0:03:52.404 became my coach and he was like, I want you 0:03:52.444 --> 0:03:55.484 to meet Vanessa Selts. She's really really impressive, and I 0:03:55.524 --> 0:03:58.124 was like, I don't want to meet Vanessa. She's scarce me. 0:04:00.844 --> 0:04:02.004 Yeah, that's funny. 0:04:02.084 --> 0:04:04.244 And then and then we met and at first I 0:04:04.284 --> 0:04:06.804 was like, I don't think she likes me, and Eric's like, no, no, 0:04:06.924 --> 0:04:08.924 she likes you. And then we became friends and I 0:04:08.964 --> 0:04:11.004 realized that you were actually pretty amazing. 0:04:11.844 --> 0:04:14.404 Well thanks, yeah, it was great, great to me beginning 0:04:14.404 --> 0:04:16.964 of a great friendship. You know, it is funny that 0:04:17.004 --> 0:04:19.124 you say that, because there is this thing where there's 0:04:19.204 --> 0:04:23.244 less like you know, not to get to like whatever 0:04:23.284 --> 0:04:26.844 serious about kind of a lighthearted anecdote, and it's like, 0:04:27.204 --> 0:04:29.564 there really is this thing where you're on TV and 0:04:29.604 --> 0:04:31.524 you're or you're just playing poker in general, not even 0:04:31.524 --> 0:04:33.724 on TV, where you know, you're like you have your 0:04:33.724 --> 0:04:36.284 game face, you're like in the zone. And I get 0:04:36.324 --> 0:04:39.004 really intense when I'm playing, and I'm like really concentrating, 0:04:39.044 --> 0:04:42.244 and I'm also often like playing pretty aggressive. So there's 0:04:42.244 --> 0:04:45.604 this like weird like crossover between your poker style and 0:04:45.604 --> 0:04:48.044 your personality, right, and so I can come across it's 0:04:48.124 --> 0:04:51.124 like really intense, and I get really intense sometimes, like 0:04:51.124 --> 0:04:53.604 I'm really in the moment, and I think sometimes it 0:04:53.604 --> 0:04:55.644 would just be like really intense and people will be like, 0:04:55.684 --> 0:04:57.124 oh my god, who is this person? 0:04:57.244 --> 0:05:01.964 But you're you're very self I mean, you're very self possessed. 0:05:02.044 --> 0:05:05.884 And I never want to make assumptions about someone's inner 0:05:06.084 --> 0:05:08.484 confidence level versus how they project outwardly. But did you 0:05:08.524 --> 0:05:11.444 feel like it was an advance just to be on TV? 0:05:13.924 --> 0:05:16.404 Oh? Like, was it an advantage that I got to 0:05:16.404 --> 0:05:18.364 be on TV playing poker? Like? Absolutely? 0:05:19.164 --> 0:05:20.884 Do you feel I guess do you feel like you 0:05:20.924 --> 0:05:25.524 played better on TV relative or you know, maybe everyone 0:05:25.564 --> 0:05:27.484 plays worse because there's more external factors to deal with. 0:05:27.484 --> 0:05:30.964 But did you like if you are told I'm at 0:05:30.964 --> 0:05:33.684 whatever day of the World Series main event, right you're 0:05:33.684 --> 0:05:35.444 at the future table? Is are you happy about that 0:05:35.564 --> 0:05:37.444 or not? Oh? 0:05:37.524 --> 0:05:39.924 Man, that's a complicated question. That's a good questions, complicated 0:05:40.004 --> 0:05:43.204 question because I didn't actually like the act of like 0:05:43.284 --> 0:05:45.644 being on TV, if you will, just like, I definitely 0:05:45.844 --> 0:05:48.244 had advantage over my competitors at a random World Series 0:05:48.324 --> 0:05:50.644 tournament where I've been on that stage a million times 0:05:50.684 --> 0:05:54.244 and they haven't, and I'm gonna make better decisions and stuff. 0:05:54.284 --> 0:05:57.284 But I just didn't like it on like a visceral level. 0:05:58.004 --> 0:06:00.324 But being on TV was actually a huge advantage for me, 0:06:00.364 --> 0:06:03.724 I kind of like utilized that. Basically, what I mean 0:06:03.764 --> 0:06:05.564 to say is like I got a reputation the first 0:06:05.564 --> 0:06:07.324 time I was ever on TV. I made this like 0:06:07.604 --> 0:06:10.764 really crazy bluff. I four bet all in with with 0:06:10.844 --> 0:06:13.644 two five suited. It was a thing that happens now 0:06:13.684 --> 0:06:15.804 occasionally is still considered a reckless play, but at the 0:06:15.804 --> 0:06:18.244 time it was two thousand and six and no one 0:06:18.244 --> 0:06:20.604 had ever seen anyone do that or like had any idea, 0:06:20.724 --> 0:06:22.164 you know what I mean. You re raised with like 0:06:22.204 --> 0:06:25.364 pocket aces, maybe as king if you were feeling like bluffy, 0:06:25.404 --> 0:06:28.484 you know at the time. And so when that happened, 0:06:28.564 --> 0:06:31.884 I got this reputation as being like the craziest person 0:06:32.164 --> 0:06:33.324 in the world, you know, in poker. 0:06:33.404 --> 0:06:35.604 And by the way, you managed to run into aces 0:06:35.604 --> 0:06:36.524 in that hand. 0:06:36.484 --> 0:06:38.324 I did manage to run to aces, And I don't 0:06:38.324 --> 0:06:41.124 know if that was a coincidence. Having just explained that 0:06:41.164 --> 0:06:45.004 most people that three bet usually had aces, so the 0:06:45.004 --> 0:06:46.724 point just being like it was this crazy play, and 0:06:46.764 --> 0:06:49.724 everybody kind of took notice, you know, They're like, I 0:06:49.764 --> 0:06:51.884 don't look like your typical poker player. I wasn't playing 0:06:51.924 --> 0:06:53.964 like your typical poker butler like, who is this person? 0:06:54.564 --> 0:06:56.524 And I think that stuck out in people's mind so 0:06:56.644 --> 0:07:00.244 much that I just instantly got this reputation for being 0:07:00.244 --> 0:07:03.204 this like crazy, crazy player, to the point where I 0:07:03.204 --> 0:07:05.924 would play games and I, you know, I would end 0:07:06.044 --> 0:07:09.564 up in like one thousand big blind pots meaning for 0:07:09.604 --> 0:07:12.004 the average view were meaning pods that were like way 0:07:12.004 --> 0:07:14.804 bigger than your average pot, like just a giant, giant, 0:07:14.804 --> 0:07:16.924 giant pot, and I would like go all in on 0:07:16.964 --> 0:07:19.284 the river, and I would get called by like Ace High, 0:07:19.604 --> 0:07:21.044 and You're just like, how do I end up in 0:07:21.044 --> 0:07:23.284 a situation where there's like a thousand big blinds in 0:07:23.284 --> 0:07:24.884 the middle and I'm being called by Ace High? And 0:07:24.964 --> 0:07:26.844 so anyway to get back to the original point of 0:07:26.884 --> 0:07:28.804 what I was saying, like I was just as crazy 0:07:28.804 --> 0:07:31.324 player and I was never gonna shake that image. And 0:07:31.404 --> 0:07:33.884 so it's honestly part of what led me to retire 0:07:33.924 --> 0:07:35.924 from poker because it was pretty boring. I like really 0:07:35.964 --> 0:07:38.124 just couldn't bluff nearly as much as your average person. 0:07:38.204 --> 0:07:40.244 Like every story was like, so I knew they had 0:07:40.244 --> 0:07:43.844 third pair, so I just gave up, or like you know, 0:07:44.044 --> 0:07:45.804 or I decided I was either gonna put in you know, 0:07:45.844 --> 0:07:49.164 my entire stack or give up. And so what I 0:07:49.244 --> 0:07:51.884 ended up doing was realizing I was like, okay, I 0:07:51.964 --> 0:07:55.044 literally I get the most action of any player ever, 0:07:55.564 --> 0:07:57.084 so I just have to play tight. This is the 0:07:57.124 --> 0:08:01.564 most profitable strategy by far. So whenever I went on TV, 0:08:02.444 --> 0:08:05.044 if there was ever a close decision between like making 0:08:05.084 --> 0:08:08.444 aggressive action like bluff or rays or just like folder call, 0:08:08.484 --> 0:08:11.084 I always took the aggress action. And sometimes even when 0:08:11.084 --> 0:08:13.004 it wasn't a close decision, you know, like when I, 0:08:13.444 --> 0:08:15.604 you know, five bet shove with Jackson and suit whatever. 0:08:15.644 --> 0:08:17.644 But I wasn't trying to light money on fire. But 0:08:17.684 --> 0:08:19.884 it was this really weird real thing where it was 0:08:19.884 --> 0:08:21.444 like I would give up a little bit of equity 0:08:21.524 --> 0:08:23.324 or a lot of equity sometimes to just kind of 0:08:23.764 --> 0:08:26.644 maintain this crazy image because you know, and I can 0:08:26.644 --> 0:08:28.724 say this now because I don't play poker anymore, but 0:08:28.764 --> 0:08:31.604 it was like a decade of me just like playing 0:08:32.044 --> 0:08:34.884 I would say, I mean postlop I was pretty aggressive, 0:08:34.884 --> 0:08:37.004 but like preflop I was probably tighter than like ninety 0:08:37.004 --> 0:08:40.924 percent of the table honestly, because I couldn't never shake 0:08:41.004 --> 0:08:43.164 that image anyway. So I was just like, let me 0:08:43.244 --> 0:08:45.484 use these like TV time as a way to kind 0:08:45.484 --> 0:08:48.164 of keep up my reputation, and people just believe what 0:08:48.164 --> 0:08:50.164 they see on TV, and that was just the most 0:08:50.204 --> 0:08:51.204 profitable way to play. 0:08:51.444 --> 0:08:54.204 Yeah, So I think you're raising a really interesting point, 0:08:54.244 --> 0:08:56.924 which is that you know, when you're talking about you know, 0:08:56.964 --> 0:08:59.164 we we love poker on this show, not just because 0:08:59.204 --> 0:09:01.284 we all play poker, but because it's such a great 0:09:01.284 --> 0:09:04.124 way of looking at decision making. And I think you 0:09:04.124 --> 0:09:06.764 you're raising a really important point, which is that no 0:09:06.844 --> 0:09:08.204 decision is made in a vacuum. 0:09:08.284 --> 0:09:08.444 Right. 0:09:08.724 --> 0:09:12.364 I have a very different reputation from yours, but you know, 0:09:12.404 --> 0:09:14.364 I've been a bounty in big events and I hate 0:09:14.364 --> 0:09:16.404 it because you can't bluff. Right, It's kind of the 0:09:16.444 --> 0:09:16.764 same thing. 0:09:16.924 --> 0:09:18.564 We're just funny thing. We're like, we'll talk up. So 0:09:18.604 --> 0:09:21.324 you've said, I think a couple of times, Maria, we're like, okay, 0:09:21.844 --> 0:09:24.204 when you make a big shove or a big bet 0:09:24.284 --> 0:09:28.324 on the river and an opponent tanks, and if you're 0:09:28.364 --> 0:09:30.644 not a poker fan, that means they're waiting, you know, 0:09:31.724 --> 0:09:33.724 at least half a minute to several minutes to make 0:09:33.764 --> 0:09:34.204 a decision. 0:09:34.244 --> 0:09:34.404 Right. 0:09:34.764 --> 0:09:37.524 In my experience, when they tank against me, they fold 0:09:37.924 --> 0:09:39.804 two thirds of the time. Right, And you said it's 0:09:39.804 --> 0:09:41.084 the opposite for me, they. 0:09:40.964 --> 0:09:43.204 Call right for me. The longer they tank, the more 0:09:43.244 --> 0:09:46.684 I'm like, okay, motherfucker, just call already, right, like, you know, 0:09:46.844 --> 0:09:49.684 just stop, take me out of my misery hand. And 0:09:49.724 --> 0:09:52.524 it is, you know, it is so incredibly you know, 0:09:52.564 --> 0:09:55.164 there's I think that's one of the interesting things about poker. 0:09:55.164 --> 0:09:58.164 And I'm curious, you know, how how you see it 0:09:58.324 --> 0:10:00.684 both in poker and outside of poker, kind of that 0:10:00.764 --> 0:10:03.884 added layer to it, right that there is it's not 0:10:04.044 --> 0:10:07.884 just the math, right, that every single risk assessment, every 0:10:07.964 --> 0:10:12.444 single decision is so dependent on the player, on the situation, 0:10:12.724 --> 0:10:15.124 on the dynamics, on all of those things. The math 0:10:15.204 --> 0:10:19.244 is there, right, the math matters, but but there's so 0:10:19.364 --> 0:10:20.404 much more going on. 0:10:20.204 --> 0:10:22.204 One hundred percent. And I think your point about like 0:10:22.244 --> 0:10:24.444 the longer it takes that being the key point of 0:10:24.484 --> 0:10:29.044 divergence is like a really a really great perception because 0:10:29.044 --> 0:10:31.604 I think that is like we have all these kind 0:10:31.644 --> 0:10:36.564 of emotional biases and you know, like if you usually 0:10:36.644 --> 0:10:38.524 your brain is kind of leading the charge for the 0:10:38.564 --> 0:10:41.484 first like beginning of your decision making, right, and then 0:10:41.924 --> 0:10:45.604 eventually it's like the emotional the monkey brain or whatever 0:10:45.604 --> 0:10:47.684 it takes over. And that's what I used to say 0:10:47.724 --> 0:10:49.724 about you know, to go back to that story about 0:10:49.724 --> 0:10:52.204 how people would call me with these crazy, crazy hands, 0:10:52.244 --> 0:10:54.964 and it's like there were hands where the only way 0:10:55.084 --> 0:10:58.524 to correct call if I'm like bluffing with a part 0:10:58.524 --> 0:11:00.884 of my rain, like we're spots, you're supposed to bluff 0:11:00.924 --> 0:11:02.604 like fifteen percent, they would have to have assumed I 0:11:02.604 --> 0:11:05.364 was bluffing like eighty percent to make the call. And 0:11:05.404 --> 0:11:07.924 it's like, Okay, you see a person who's had like 0:11:08.044 --> 0:11:11.004 very good poker results. Could I be like the one 0:11:11.204 --> 0:11:13.524 point zho one percent luckiest person and just a terrible 0:11:13.524 --> 0:11:16.484 poker player. I guess it's possible, athough, like from a 0:11:16.484 --> 0:11:21.284 Baysian perspective, like probably, like if the other priors that like, 0:11:21.324 --> 0:11:24.604 you're wrong about my range, like probably that should be 0:11:24.644 --> 0:11:27.524 a stronger prior, but like hey, never mind. So you know, 0:11:28.004 --> 0:11:30.484 people would make these calls where I'm like, Okay, the 0:11:30.564 --> 0:11:33.444 only way that this call could be correct is if 0:11:33.484 --> 0:11:36.084 I'm just a terrible player and getting lucky all the time. 0:11:36.084 --> 0:11:37.964 Like there's no way that I could be a successful 0:11:37.964 --> 0:11:39.924 player and be bluffing the frequency that it needs to be. 0:11:40.244 --> 0:11:42.644 But it didn't matter, Like it was just like I've 0:11:42.684 --> 0:11:44.244 seen you on TV I call you know what I mean, 0:11:44.364 --> 0:11:46.564 or like, I'm not gonna be bluffed by you. I'm 0:11:46.564 --> 0:11:50.324 not gonna be bullied by you. And it was truly 0:11:50.364 --> 0:11:54.044 incredible because if you really just thought about it from 0:11:54.124 --> 0:11:57.044 a from a logical decision making like rational perspective, it 0:11:57.044 --> 0:11:59.764 would just be an absurd way to play against anyone. 0:11:59.844 --> 0:12:02.124 So I'm curious. So you think when people take longer 0:12:02.164 --> 0:12:05.164 to make a decision that they get more emotional because 0:12:05.204 --> 0:12:07.684 people would say, well, I'm going through all the all 0:12:07.724 --> 0:12:10.084 the different combinations and thinking through things carefully. You think 0:12:10.084 --> 0:12:11.364 that like actually kind of like. 0:12:11.404 --> 0:12:15.484 I think mostly there, yeah, a few people are thinking 0:12:15.524 --> 0:12:16.444 through the combinations. 0:12:16.484 --> 0:12:18.924 But even if you're thinking through the combinations, I think, like, 0:12:19.044 --> 0:12:21.764 even in a really complicated way, it takes you like 0:12:21.844 --> 0:12:23.964 max thirty seconds to get like ninety percent of the 0:12:24.004 --> 0:12:26.644 way there. Like, I just think that time is allowing 0:12:26.764 --> 0:12:30.524 so much more emotional stuff to creep in that it's 0:12:30.604 --> 0:12:34.284 just like the ratio of like math to emotion is 0:12:34.324 --> 0:12:36.764 just like definitely going down over time. 0:12:36.964 --> 0:12:40.484 Totally agree if you so, you were kind of playing 0:12:40.484 --> 0:12:43.844 in the era before solvers became quite so ubiquitous. 0:12:43.964 --> 0:12:45.884 If I don't think they existed at the beginning when 0:12:45.924 --> 0:12:46.724 I've literally. 0:12:46.444 --> 0:12:47.564 Never used a solver before. 0:12:47.644 --> 0:12:51.404 So and a solver, if you're not aware at home, 0:12:51.604 --> 0:12:55.644 is a product that literally solves the Nash equilibrium for a. 0:12:55.644 --> 0:12:58.764 Poker literally since it doesn't actually exist. But yes, wait, 0:12:58.804 --> 0:12:59.164 what do you. 0:12:59.124 --> 0:13:01.644 Mean, Well, there's a because you a nashqlibrium Truther. 0:13:02.004 --> 0:13:05.324 No, but because poker is an unsolved game, it approximates 0:13:05.324 --> 0:13:05.804 a solution. 0:13:06.044 --> 0:13:10.764 But it's true to break down, it's true. Well wow, sorry, 0:13:11.844 --> 0:13:15.404 that is true technically. Actually, you know, I feel like 0:13:15.404 --> 0:13:17.484 when you need that means literally Truther. 0:13:17.764 --> 0:13:21.804 So yeah, yeah, would you how would you play differently today? 0:13:21.884 --> 0:13:25.244 Do you think you'd try to be more quote unquote 0:13:25.244 --> 0:13:27.844 gto driven or even or less so or this or 0:13:27.884 --> 0:13:28.164 the same? 0:13:28.324 --> 0:13:30.284 That's that's a great question. And so my goal is 0:13:30.324 --> 0:13:31.884 just to make the most money, right, it's not to 0:13:32.044 --> 0:13:34.524 like play in a way that makes Jane Street look 0:13:34.804 --> 0:13:37.564 more like a reasonable place and not make crazy bluffs. Right. 0:13:38.044 --> 0:13:42.124 So okay, just under that premise, I would say, I think, 0:13:43.404 --> 0:13:46.764 I mean, so in my career, I'm a trader, like 0:13:47.364 --> 0:13:49.764 poker player, trader or whatever. It is, Like you think 0:13:49.804 --> 0:13:54.244 about where does your edge come from? And uh, it's 0:13:54.244 --> 0:13:57.004 certainly for me not in playing GTO better than anybody 0:13:57.044 --> 0:14:00.964 else at this point, Like I've literally never used to solver. 0:14:01.164 --> 0:14:03.884 I've never studied it. I'm also very unpracticed from the game, 0:14:04.084 --> 0:14:07.004 and so I don't even remember like what the lines 0:14:07.044 --> 0:14:09.044 I'm supposed to take in various spots are. Like I 0:14:09.124 --> 0:14:10.964 used to come close enough to what the solvers would 0:14:10.964 --> 0:14:12.604 say if I had used them. It was actually like 0:14:12.764 --> 0:14:14.484 pretty cool. I would ask my friends, and I'd be like, 0:14:14.604 --> 0:14:16.684 I kind of got there, you know, just from understanding 0:14:16.724 --> 0:14:20.084 the theoretical underpinnings of the game. And I'm pretty far 0:14:20.084 --> 0:14:22.524 from that because I really play maybe once or twice 0:14:22.524 --> 0:14:25.044 a year at this point for the last almost decades, 0:14:25.124 --> 0:14:28.804 so you know, I don't have to play less GGO. 0:14:29.364 --> 0:14:31.404 My strategy back then was to put people, you know, 0:14:31.484 --> 0:14:33.324 people that were trying to play GTO that I thought 0:14:33.324 --> 0:14:36.404 were just kind of like memorizing, and like there was 0:14:36.404 --> 0:14:38.284 this there's this class of poker players that was like 0:14:38.284 --> 0:14:40.964 successful because they were good at memorizing things and not 0:14:40.964 --> 0:14:44.124 not that great at thinking through things. And so I 0:14:44.164 --> 0:14:45.964 was like, Okay, let me sacrifice a little bit of 0:14:46.044 --> 0:14:49.644 EV on an early part of the hand in order 0:14:49.764 --> 0:14:51.644 to get them into a spot they're very unused to, 0:14:51.724 --> 0:14:54.124 uncomfortable with, and just outreason them in a spot where 0:14:54.164 --> 0:14:57.084 the pot is much bigger. And I would just do 0:14:57.124 --> 0:14:59.844 that repeatedly, and kind of through doing that, I would, 0:15:00.644 --> 0:15:03.404 you know, kind of figure out where the population where 0:15:03.404 --> 0:15:06.684 most players were making the most mistakes and you know, 0:15:06.804 --> 0:15:08.964 and so I think I would just do that, but 0:15:09.004 --> 0:15:12.364 even more because I think my edge there is probably 0:15:12.404 --> 0:15:14.564 still similar to what it is now. You know, it 0:15:14.604 --> 0:15:16.204 would take me a while. I probably wouldn't be winning 0:15:16.204 --> 0:15:19.004 at first doing that, because I think part of the 0:15:19.004 --> 0:15:22.204 reason that was such a successful strategy for me was 0:15:22.244 --> 0:15:24.724 like I would just see the same thing over and over. 0:15:24.764 --> 0:15:26.844 I would be like, you know, I don't know, not 0:15:26.884 --> 0:15:28.524 to make it too pokery, but I'd be like, oh, 0:15:28.564 --> 0:15:30.324 I check the turn in a spot that no one 0:15:30.404 --> 0:15:32.364 would and then I would like raise small and then 0:15:32.524 --> 0:15:34.964 you know whatever, like some weird line that no one takes, 0:15:35.004 --> 0:15:36.244 but I would take it a lot, And so I 0:15:36.244 --> 0:15:40.044 would see how people would react over and over again. 0:15:40.124 --> 0:15:42.524 But I think, like whenever you're making any decision, and 0:15:42.524 --> 0:15:45.044 I think this applies to trading way even more than poker, 0:15:45.404 --> 0:15:49.124 it's just like thinking through really really carefully like where 0:15:49.164 --> 0:15:51.164 does your edge come from? Where does my edge not 0:15:51.204 --> 0:15:53.884 come from? Where am I getting outplayed? And so that 0:15:53.884 --> 0:15:54.964 would have to be the answers. 0:15:55.084 --> 0:15:59.004 No, I would much rather play against like a gto 0:16:00.124 --> 0:16:03.044 perfect player than like Vanessa. 0:16:03.084 --> 0:16:05.404 I think it's such a smart strategy, both in poke 0:16:05.404 --> 0:16:08.724 around in life to put people in parts of the 0:16:08.724 --> 0:16:11.804 game tree where they're not as familiar, right, get them 0:16:11.844 --> 0:16:14.404 out of their comfort zone. And I've been on the 0:16:14.444 --> 0:16:16.524 receiving end of that when I was just starting out. 0:16:16.524 --> 0:16:18.564 There are some people who are very exploited of players. 0:16:18.604 --> 0:16:21.044 I still remember a hand I played against someone you 0:16:21.084 --> 0:16:24.884 know of Vanessa Joe Chong, and he defended the blinds. 0:16:24.884 --> 0:16:27.084 I was a pre flap raiser. He checked, I bet 0:16:27.284 --> 0:16:30.204 and then he led the turn and I was already 0:16:30.204 --> 0:16:33.364 planning to bet that turn. I was a perfect barrel 0:16:33.404 --> 0:16:36.244 cart and he led it. I was like, what the hell, 0:16:37.124 --> 0:16:40.684 what are you doing? And it really I messed up. 0:16:40.684 --> 0:16:42.804 I ended up busting the tournament on that hand. 0:16:43.644 --> 0:16:45.444 And he's probably done that a bunch of times. But 0:16:45.564 --> 0:16:48.044 now he kind of understands how people in their first 0:16:48.044 --> 0:16:51.004 time reacting to that react and you know, the mistakes 0:16:51.044 --> 0:16:53.924 wind up being way bigger. Yeah, he's making a conscious decision. 0:16:53.924 --> 0:16:55.964 You know. It's really interesting. One thing I have heard 0:16:56.004 --> 0:16:57.924 that Once again, I don't know anything about this, so 0:16:57.964 --> 0:17:00.284 if I might be speaking on my ass but I 0:17:00.284 --> 0:17:04.044 think you can do things like node lock. So if 0:17:04.084 --> 0:17:07.124 you make some assumptions about, you know, the way a 0:17:07.164 --> 0:17:10.044 player will react in a certain spot, you can like 0:17:10.884 --> 0:17:13.044 you know, that's different than GTO. I think you can 0:17:13.044 --> 0:17:14.484 no luck and then you can like kind of go 0:17:14.524 --> 0:17:16.724 back and say, okay, like conditional on them reacting a 0:17:16.724 --> 0:17:20.524 certain way, what is my gto play? And like that's 0:17:20.564 --> 0:17:22.564 what GGO is about. It's not or that's what like 0:17:22.724 --> 0:17:24.884 just I guess solid strategy and anything is about. It's 0:17:24.924 --> 0:17:27.524 not like supposed to be this rigid thing. It's supposed 0:17:27.524 --> 0:17:30.004 to be a way to say, okay, conditional on these 0:17:30.044 --> 0:17:32.684 assumptions I'm making about the world, what is the best 0:17:32.684 --> 0:17:36.004 course of action. The problem is that gdo pure GTO. 0:17:36.364 --> 0:17:39.404 The assumption that it's relying on is that everybody else 0:17:39.484 --> 0:17:42.404 is going to play perfectly. And then if you condition 0:17:42.484 --> 0:17:45.204 on different assumptions, it's going to tell you like different things. 0:17:45.444 --> 0:17:46.604 And so that's pretty cool. 0:17:50.884 --> 0:18:03.964 And we'll be back right after this. You have a 0:18:04.084 --> 0:18:08.564 unique background for people who went into the world of poker, 0:18:09.044 --> 0:18:11.164 And I mean, I think something that unites a lot 0:18:11.204 --> 0:18:14.404 of what you've done is kind of the competitive edge 0:18:14.444 --> 0:18:17.204 to it, the love of games. But you went to 0:18:17.284 --> 0:18:20.204 undergrad you studied political science, right, and then you played 0:18:20.244 --> 0:18:24.524 poker after that. But then even though you were ridiculously successful, 0:18:24.844 --> 0:18:28.524 you didn't go pro. You went to law school and 0:18:28.724 --> 0:18:32.884 only then after law school did you go into professional poker. 0:18:32.884 --> 0:18:36.204 Can you talk us through that and how kind of 0:18:37.124 --> 0:18:40.484 how that thinking went and kind of what the strand, 0:18:41.084 --> 0:18:43.564 whether the strand that I have picked out, kind of 0:18:43.604 --> 0:18:46.004 the competition and kind of the game aspect of it 0:18:46.044 --> 0:18:48.124 is correct or not? You know, how did that all 0:18:48.124 --> 0:18:48.484 work out? 0:18:48.564 --> 0:18:51.364 It's not that deep. For me. It was mostly me 0:18:51.524 --> 0:18:53.884 trying to convince myself I'm not a degenerate, when in 0:18:53.924 --> 0:19:00.244 fact I am a degenerate. So yeah, that was I mean, honestly, 0:19:00.484 --> 0:19:02.604 it was a lot of like, oh, this isn't actually 0:19:02.604 --> 0:19:04.204 what I'm doing for a career, right, Like that's not 0:19:04.244 --> 0:19:07.604 a real career, and so it was much more like 0:19:07.604 --> 0:19:09.164 a hobby. And honestly it kind of always was a 0:19:09.204 --> 0:19:09.884 hot be for me. 0:19:10.284 --> 0:19:11.284