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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at Breaking Points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 1: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support. But enough with that,

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Speaker 2: let's get to the show.

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Speaker 3: Good morning, and welcome to Counterpoints. We do have a

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Speaker 3: quick announcement. Ryan and I have two long days coming

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Speaker 3: up here actually because the debate special, the Breaking Points

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Speaker 3: Debate Special, where we're bringing together everyone in the Breaking

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Speaker 3: Points a cinematic universe, right, that's happening tomorrow night. We

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Speaker 3: can put this graphic up on the screen eight pm Eastern.

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Speaker 3: There's also a fun graphic where Ryan is trying to

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Speaker 3: figure out why he's so angry.

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Speaker 1: We can put that one up on the screen too.

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Speaker 1: And Emily looks like she wasn't ready for the picture. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and she's like looking down at her phone and they're like, oh, oh,

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Speaker 1: we're doing this now.

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Speaker 3: You know that happened to me one time in the

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Speaker 3: outfield playing playing soft.

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Speaker 1: And the ball like landed on your head.

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Speaker 3: Well I had to go like put my glove up

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Speaker 3: and my phone fell out. My coach wasn't happy about that.

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Speaker 3: At eight pm. But tonight we will also be moderating

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Speaker 3: a debate for zero Hedge on the Border. That's going

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Speaker 3: to be at seven pm.

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Speaker 1: Is that live or that post later?

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Speaker 3: I think it's live. Okay, all right, so seven pm tonight,

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Speaker 3: but put.

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Speaker 1: Some details about that somewhere.

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Speaker 3: Whole Breaking Points universe Tomorrow eight pm for the presidential debate,

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Speaker 3: which is totally a first in history. We're going to

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Speaker 3: talk about it.

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Speaker 1: Robbie's going to be in that debate, right, getting the

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Speaker 1: Rising crew back together. Yeah, Open borders, Robbie, yeah yeah,

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Speaker 1: and me and me and Robbie up.

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Speaker 3: We'll have nachos on the table.

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Speaker 1: Excellent forward to that.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So we now that we have the programming notes

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Speaker 3: out of the way, we are going to start by

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Speaker 3: talking about the debate today. We're then going to go

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Speaker 3: over the election results, super super buzzy stuff. Obviously, Ryan

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Speaker 3: quite literally wrote the book on the Squad, and the

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Speaker 3: Squad is front and center as we have results coming

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Speaker 3: in from primary elections all over the country last night.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk about a terrible split screen playing

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Speaker 3: out in Kenya, where four hundred Kenyans arrived in Port

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Speaker 3: of Prince yesterday in Haiti. And also there's at least

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Speaker 3: twenty two deaths so far in protests over a.

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Speaker 1: New tax bill. Yeah, back in Nairobi, all hell is

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Speaker 1: breaking loose, while ye Kenya is sending on behalf of

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Speaker 1: the United States an international invasion force into Haiti. So

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Speaker 1: we'll break some of that down. I'm going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the disclosures from the Portland, Oregon race that we

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Speaker 1: covered about a month ago, where a pack as we

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Speaker 1: reported at the time, was spending millions of dollars secretly

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Speaker 1: to influence that race. They were finally a month after

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Speaker 1: the election, forced to disclose their actual funding and despite

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Speaker 1: their denials, you're going to be shocked it actually was.

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Speaker 1: Apak going to unpack how all of that unfolded. And

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Speaker 1: then at the end of the show, we're going to

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Speaker 1: be talking to a Theodore Postal, who's one of the

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Speaker 1: kind of nuclear war experts in the world and in

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Speaker 1: world history, since we only have since the forties, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: to think about nuclear war. He's gone back and forth

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Speaker 1: from the Pentagon to mit A is one of the

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Speaker 1: most respected voices on this He is warning that the

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Speaker 1: Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are putting nuclear war at a

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Speaker 1: much higher risk than it was before Ukraine started striking

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Speaker 1: Russia's early warning nuclear detection system. It's pretty frightening and

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Speaker 1: kind of should be leading the news all around the world. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you'd think, kind of like a first order thing that

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Speaker 1: I think we all want is to not die in

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Speaker 1: a nuclear annihilation, and yet here we are. We'll put

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Speaker 1: it at the end of the show.

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Speaker 3: Though only one's talking about it at the end of

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Speaker 3: the show. Well, let's start with the big news, which

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Speaker 3: is that historic debait is still as of right now

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Speaker 3: set for tomorrow. I continue to be a synic about

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Speaker 3: whether it will actually happen. It seems pretty likely that

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Speaker 3: it will actually happen at this point. But Hillary Clinton

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Speaker 3: is weighing in. Let's put a one up on the screen.

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Speaker 3: Hillary Clinton wrote in otbed for the New York Times,

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Speaker 3: where as the Fox News headline put it, she complained,

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Speaker 3: it's quote impossible to defeat Trump and a quote waste

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Speaker 3: of time to refute his arguments. Ran the thing I

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Speaker 3: pulled out of this op ed from Hillary Clinton is

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Speaker 3: a quote where she says, Unfortunately, mister Biden starts from

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Speaker 3: a disadvantage because there's no way he can spend as

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Speaker 3: much time preparing as I did eight years ago. Being

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Speaker 3: president isn't just a day job. It's an everything, everywhere,

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Speaker 3: all at once job. Historically that has led to weaker

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Speaker 3: first debate performances for the incumbent. So I feel like

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Speaker 3: this op ed, which she dropped a day before dropping

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Speaker 3: her big book announcement, was kind of a nice one

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Speaker 3: to pr punch for Hillary Clinton. Savvy as ever, but

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Speaker 3: I think she's trying to lay the groundwork for a

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Speaker 3: mediocre Biden performance by pushing publishing a opbed in the

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Speaker 3: pages of the New York Times saying it's an impossible job.

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Speaker 1: That's always what I say after I lose a debate,

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Speaker 1: and it's that it's just an impossible task. It's a

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Speaker 1: waste of time, yes, But on the other hand, it

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Speaker 1: is kind of an impossible task to debate Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Can you imagine? Then Hillary has actually done it, and

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Speaker 1: she had Philippe Brains as the guy trying to pretend

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Speaker 1: to be Trump, and but nobody can actually be Trump.

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Speaker 1: He is one of a kind in basically world history.

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Speaker 1: So you get out there and you have no idea

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Speaker 1: what on earth is going to come out of that

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Speaker 1: guy's mouth. You just don't know, and you don't even

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Speaker 1: know if it's going to work because nobody's ever said

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Speaker 1: it before, nobody's ever tried it before. So it's not

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Speaker 1: something you can even and train for. And it's not

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Speaker 1: as if either Biden or Trump are going to be

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Speaker 1: getting into like the nitty gritty of tariff policy or know,

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Speaker 1: one of these like nineteen eighties or nineties debates that

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Speaker 1: gets like super wonky, like that's just like nobody expects

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Speaker 1: anybody to go remotely near that. If these candidates can

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Speaker 1: string together a sentence from beginning to end, that that

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Speaker 1: is like grammatical yes. And if they can even put

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Speaker 1: together a paragraph that can be transcribed and you read

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Speaker 1: it and you're like, yeah, that's like eighth grade level

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Speaker 1: and it makes a clear point, that would be a

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Speaker 1: win for either of them. But I don't expect either

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Speaker 1: of those things to happen. What we are expecting, though,

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Speaker 1: are some stunts. And Hillary Clinton remembers that right after

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Speaker 1: the Access Hollywood moment, Donald Trump responded using what was

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Speaker 1: the Steve Bannon's idea of bringing three or four women

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Speaker 1: who had accused her husband of sexual assault to the.

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Speaker 3: Debate at them like in the front row.

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Speaker 1: And had a press conference with them before an absolutely

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Speaker 1: extraordinary moment. And so now people are speculating based on

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Speaker 1: some leaks and hints from the Trump campaign. We can

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Speaker 1: put this next element up here of who Trump is

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Speaker 1: going to bring this time, like what kind of event

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Speaker 1: he's going to try to create, And one thing they're

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Speaker 1: suggesting is that he might bring family members of people

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Speaker 1: killed by immigrants here in the United States. Do you

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Speaker 1: have any insight from the Trump camp as to what

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Speaker 1: kind of kind of a show they're planning on putting on.

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Speaker 3: Well, there was an interesting report. This is actually just

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Speaker 3: the next element from Byron Yorke over at the Washington Examiner.

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Speaker 3: This is a three. We can put it up on

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Speaker 3: the screen and I'm going to read from it. Trump

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Speaker 3: told the Examiner what they did, I'm pretty sure is

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Speaker 3: that they approached me with a debate that I couldn't

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Speaker 3: take Dana Bash, Jake Tapper, and then Byron put in brackets.

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Speaker 3: Trump referred to the CNN anchor commentator as fake Tapper

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Speaker 3: throughout no audience, sitting down, originally sitting down a dead debate,

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Speaker 3: turn off the mics when you're not speaking so I

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Speaker 3: can't interrupt him. They knew I wouldn't accept that because

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Speaker 3: it was CNN, Dana Bash, Jake Tapper, and I like

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Speaker 3: an audience, and probably he doesn't, who knows, so they

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Speaker 3: thought they would present it. I would say no, and

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Speaker 3: they would say we can't debate because Trump said no,

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Speaker 3: So I said yes before they even gave me the terms.

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Speaker 3: So he got roped into it. Interestingly, that's Trump explaining

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Speaker 3: how he even got Biden to agree to a debate.

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Speaker 3: And one of the things, in terms of the stunt question,

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Speaker 3: this is the reason I described this debate as historic. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: debates happen all the time, but some people may be

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Speaker 3: aware this is the first debate and modern history that's

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Speaker 3: happening without the Presidential Debate Commission. Is that what it's

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Speaker 3: called debate committee?

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Speaker 1: Debate on Well, it's the first one since the commission

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Speaker 1: was created in like the seventies, right, right, And it's

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Speaker 1: the earliest ever.

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Speaker 3: Earliest ever first since the Debate Commission was created in

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Speaker 3: the nineteen seventies, meaning that sounds maybe like a small thing,

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Speaker 3: but what it means is that it's totally uncharted territory

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Speaker 3: for CNN, it's totally uncharted territory for the campaigns, and

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Speaker 3: so much negotiating actually goes into this. I mean, it's

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Speaker 3: just you saw what Crystal and Sager reported yesterday about

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Speaker 3: breaking points not being able to pick up on the

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Speaker 3: stream of the debate. I mean, it's the stupidest little

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Speaker 3: piece of negotiating, leverage whatever that.

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Speaker 1: I would think that a debate would be public for

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Speaker 1: everybody to stream or whatever.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, you would absolutely think that it would be.

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Speaker 3: But this is uncharted territory. And so I think that

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Speaker 3: Trump is going to be reacting just in the next

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Speaker 3: twenty four to forty eight hours, and we don't really know,

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Speaker 3: and I think he doesn't really know, which is why

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Speaker 3: he is also doing something similar. Hillary Clinton doesn't run

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Speaker 3: it out out in the New York Times without the

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Speaker 3: Biden campaign knowing what's going to come. And that's why

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Speaker 3: I think Trump talking to Byron New York and being like,

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Speaker 3: why did I agree to fake Tapper? Well, you know,

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Speaker 3: it was the only way to get Biden to debate.

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Speaker 3: I think he's also trying to lay the groundwork for

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Speaker 3: mediocre performance, because frankly, they both performed, like I'm trying

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Speaker 3: to use mediocre as an adverb mediocrely back in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: And there's a funny moment in that interview, kind of

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Speaker 1: after that exchange where the interviewer says, Okay, yeah, but

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Speaker 1: you couldn't actually say no to a debate, could you?

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Speaker 1: And he says, and this is what people love about Trump,

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Speaker 1: He's like, yeah, you're right, No, I couldn't. There's just

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Speaker 1: no way I could do that. Well, and then he

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Speaker 1: and everybody knows that, every politician knows that, but he's

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Speaker 1: unique in that he'll just say it, yeah, I couldn't

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Speaker 1: have said no.

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Speaker 3: Right, And he also said something really interesting recently reflecting

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Speaker 3: on He's like, some people told me that maybe the

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Speaker 3: reason I won was because of the debates. And that's why.

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Speaker 3: I mean, again, they're doing this in late June, but

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Speaker 3: that's why the debates are important. Because I think Trump

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Speaker 3: is correct that one of the biggest reasons he won

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Speaker 3: the primary and then won the election of twenty sixteen

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Speaker 3: is because people did not expect him to handle Hillary

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Speaker 3: Clinton the way that he did, and obviously the other

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Speaker 3: GOP candidates, and Clinton didn't perform well druxtaposed with Donald Trump,

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Speaker 3: not as well as people expected her to. I agree

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Speaker 3: with her and with you that it's an impossible job

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Speaker 3: because he's what was he called yesterday by RFK Junior,

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Speaker 3: the best debater of his generation or in a generation,

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Speaker 3: or in American history.

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Speaker 1: It's just that he's in a different league. And I

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Speaker 1: don't mean that necessarily as a compliment, right, He's just different.

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Speaker 3: It's like he's so special.

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Speaker 1: The way like if you grew up like being some

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Speaker 1: Oxford debater like Hillary Clinton, and now all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: the guys just saying wrong and like sayings to lock

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Speaker 1: you up.

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Speaker 3: It's like you bring women that your husband is accused

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Speaker 3: of actually Sultan putting in the front round.

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Speaker 1: How do you respond to that? And with with Biden,

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Speaker 1: Let's not forget one of what Donald Trump did to

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Speaker 1: Biden in twenty twenty. He showed up to the debate

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Speaker 1: knowing he had COVID remember this, and yeah, and then

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Speaker 1: he skipped the COVID test Like he's calling for a

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Speaker 1: drug test this time, saying because he's accusing Biden of

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Speaker 1: being on performance enhancing drugs, as if Trump hasn't been

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Speaker 1: you know, jacked up on you know, meth and pseuda

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Speaker 1: fed his entire life. Uh, suda fed, Like.

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Speaker 3: Like we think he's a pseudo fedatict.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he's on sometimes some type of uppers the Okay,

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Speaker 1: you're distracting me from my very good point that I

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Speaker 1: was making. But Ronnie Jackson, a congressman, jumped into the

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Speaker 1: fray and said that, you know, Biden ought to have

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Speaker 1: be drug tests ahead of this spate. Ronnie Jackson was

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Speaker 1: Trump's corrupt doctor who was pumping him full of all

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Speaker 1: sorts of who knows what the entire why the White

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Speaker 1: House doctor, Yeah, and prescribing it like off label to

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Speaker 1: all the White House staff.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then Ronnie Jackson is going to come in and

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Speaker 1: talk about performance enhancing drugs? Are you kidding me? This

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Speaker 1: is a good button whatever, A wonderful point I was

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Speaker 1: planning to make.

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Speaker 3: So, but this is actually relevant because I think to

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Speaker 3: Ronnie Jackson come out and saying that Trumps saying that,

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Speaker 3: This is why I still think it's possible the debate

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Speaker 3: gets called off in the next twenty four to forty

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Speaker 3: eight hours because again.

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Speaker 1: They can't fill their prescriptions.

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Speaker 3: They can't fill their prescriptions. Also, because the incentive for

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Speaker 3: both of them to back out and make a big

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Speaker 3: deal of it shifts, as you know, if he can

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Speaker 3: make a political point about Biden not agreed to do

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Speaker 3: a drug test. As stupid as that sounds, Biden could

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Speaker 3: never agree to do a drug test. Everybody knows Biden.

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Speaker 1: But the whole thing that's absurd, Like, of.

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Speaker 3: Course it is. But but from the political.

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Speaker 1: He's serious though, I don't think he's serious, because then

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Speaker 1: Trump would have to take a drug test.

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Speaker 3: I think it. I mean, I think it's.

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Speaker 1: Trump after seven pm is like, come on.

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Speaker 3: But Trump also just said that he called, basically called

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Speaker 3: CNN's bluff. I think he would be willing to call

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Speaker 3: Biden's bluff if the incentive shifts so as much that

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Speaker 3: you know, Biden refusing to take a drug test. So

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Speaker 3: they're not debating because Biden won't take a drug test.

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Speaker 3: If Donald Trump wants to roll with.

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Speaker 1: That, Trump's going to pain a cup before this debate.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, but I think he knows that. And

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Speaker 3: again I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. I'm

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Speaker 3: saying there are a million different variables up in the

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Speaker 3: air right now, because all they agreed to do this

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Speaker 3: with was a network and each other. A network and

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Speaker 3: each other. It is not the same.

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Speaker 1: And we're only sure moderators have to take a performance

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Speaker 1: enhancing drug test.

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Speaker 3: I'm all for it for it, maybe we should, but

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Speaker 3: the thing is, if you're not on drugs, then you're

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Speaker 3: just qualified. So anyway, I continue to think that this

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Speaker 3: is a very tenuous situation because of the way the

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Speaker 3: debate is set up. I think it's going to be

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Speaker 3: a mess if it happens for CNN because of that

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Speaker 3: exact reason. They're doing commercial breaks. So someone's campaign comes

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Speaker 3: into commercial breaks and says, you're cutting the mics too much.

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Speaker 3: They're going to be cutting the mics. Trump is going

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Speaker 3: to be yelling. It's just a mess.

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Speaker 1: So I would recommend actually for Biden microdosing shrooms because

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Speaker 1: I don't think that would show up in a test. Now,

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Speaker 1: you got to be careful, like you know, you have

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Speaker 1: a little too heavy on that.

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Speaker 3: Jennet Yellen.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting debate, yeah, but yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's worth of shot.

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Speaker 3: Maybe Janet Yellen can actually give them some shrooms. She

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Speaker 3: can administer the doses clinically.

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Speaker 1: Does Janet Yellen have a background in South Cybin.

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Speaker 3: Remember in China?

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Speaker 1: She Oh, that's right, that's right, that's right. She accidentally

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Speaker 1: dosed herself. Forgot about that. That's amazing.

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Speaker 3: Again, people think Joe Biden like there's there's not not unseious.

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Speaker 3: People saying that Biden did this to agreed to do

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Speaker 3: this earlier, that Democrats agreed to have Biden debating early

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Speaker 3: so that they could have a contingency plan in place

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Speaker 3: for the convention in August. I don't know if there's

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Speaker 3: truth to that, but a lot on the line of Mark.

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Speaker 1: What I've heard from the Biden camp is that they

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Speaker 1: they do recognize that they're losing to Trump and and

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Speaker 1: felt like they needed some way to shake the race up,

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Speaker 1: and that this so therefore they needed an early debate.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, they're very unconfident about how he's

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Speaker 1: going to perform in the debate, and the thinking is, Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: this is worth a shot, and if it works, great,

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Speaker 1: but if it doesn't, it's far enough away from the

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Speaker 1: general election that people will have forgotten this debate performance.

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Speaker 1: Those two things, if you've figured it out, are contradictory

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Speaker 1: like you can't, on the one hand, hope that a

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Speaker 1: good debate performance is going to catapult you to the

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Speaker 1: White House, but believe that a bad debate performance isn't

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Speaker 1: actually going to hurt you, because those are ideas or

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Speaker 1: in contradiction. Either the debate matters or it doesn't. But

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Speaker 1: you know, contradictions have never stopped anybody from moving forward

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Speaker 1: with what they wanted to do.

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Speaker 3: Anyway, although they can also both be so weak that

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Speaker 3: it just neutralizes each other's weaknesses, which I think actually

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Speaker 3: is what happened in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and the other thinking among Democrats is that people

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Speaker 1: don't like Donald Trump in general, and so the more

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Speaker 1: you can get Donald Trump in front of the American public,

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Speaker 1: the worse off it might be for him and liberals

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Speaker 1: by kicking him off of Twitter, Facebook, basically, you know,

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Speaker 1: deplatforming him, getting him out of people's faces have actually

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Speaker 1: done the thing that Trump's advisors were trying to do

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Speaker 1: for years, just getting him to calm down and stop

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Speaker 1: putting his foot in his mouth and saying outrageous things

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Speaker 1: that infuriated people. Nobody could accomplish that except for the

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Speaker 1: social media platforms driven by kind of democratic.

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Speaker 3: Outrage, and yeah, nobody's on true social and so with now.

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Speaker 1: They got to bring him back and put him people's

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Speaker 1: face and be like, remember this guy, like you liked

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Speaker 1: the economy under him, but you didn't like him. Remember

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Speaker 1: that and hope that that's enough.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to some of the most interesting news

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Speaker 3: playing out right now, especially in York sixteenth district, where

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Speaker 3: Jamal Bowman lost his race pretty handily, double digit loss

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Speaker 3: for a squad member Jamal Bowman and Ryan I think

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Speaker 3: maybe we just run through some of these results quickly

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Speaker 3: and then we want to get I especially curious to

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Speaker 3: hear what you have to say about what happened to

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Speaker 3: Jamal Bowman and APAC and all of that up in

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Speaker 3: New York sixteenth sixteenth. But also Lauren Bobert did win

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Speaker 3: that districting ken Bucks. It was ken bucks old seat.

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Speaker 3: The Trump back candidate in Utah to replace Romney lost handily.

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Speaker 3: It's like a twenty point love Romney twenty Yeah, but Trump,

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is this is not There was a

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Speaker 3: conversation last week we were talking about Bob good getting

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Speaker 3: booted from his seat. He's the chairman of the Freedom Caucus.

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Speaker 3: We interviewed him a couple of months ago, and people

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Speaker 3: were saying, well was the Trump factor? Trump waded in

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Speaker 3: for his opponent, and that's what ded a men really

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Speaker 3: mixed bag with Trump endorsements in recent result history, and

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Speaker 3: last night was absolutely no exception to that. So those

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Speaker 3: are I think a few of the big ones. We

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Speaker 3: might touch on a couple of other ones going forward here,

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Speaker 3: but let's start with Bowman. Ryan a big, big loss.

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Speaker 1: So George Latimer finishes, they're still counting a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but he's creeping in on fifty nine percent, fifty eight

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Speaker 1: to fifty nine percent, which is about what the polls

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Speaker 1: were showing. Like people expected this was going to be

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Speaker 1: a landslide. Daniel Maren's over, my old colleague over at

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Speaker 1: the Hoffington Post has a really good kind of rundown

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Speaker 1: of this race that gets into the retail political I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you want to call the mistakes that

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Speaker 1: Bowman made over the last couple of years, because mistakes

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Speaker 1: implies that he didn't do it on purpose, like what

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Speaker 1: Bowman in twenty twenty one took a trip sponsored by

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Speaker 1: j Street to visit Israel, and Jay Street had endorsed

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Speaker 1: him in twenty twenty against Elliott Engel obviously a pro

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Speaker 1: Israel group, a pro Israel, but it's liberal Zionist. It's

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Speaker 1: kind of They fight with APAK a lot, and in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two in particular, they were kind of a

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Speaker 1: leading element of the coalition that was fighting back against

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Speaker 1: APAC while APAK was spending millions of dollars trying to

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Speaker 1: take out like squad like members. In twenty twenty, Bowman

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Speaker 1: came in DMFI, which was the kind of proto APAC.

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Speaker 1: Super Pac spent about two million dollars against Bowman trying

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Speaker 1: to buck up Elliott Engle, who was the chairman of

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Speaker 1: the Foreign Affairs Committee and one of the leading Israel

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Speaker 1: Hawks in Congress. And so for Angle to go down

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Speaker 1: was a huge deal. And despite that two million dollars

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Speaker 1: in spending, Bowman beat him. Israel Palis and wasn't a

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Speaker 1: huge part of the race at the time. It was

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Speaker 1: what drove the funding, but it wasn't what drove the

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Speaker 1: kind of public conversation about the race. Remember, this was

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Speaker 1: the height of the George Floyd protests and Elliot Angle

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Speaker 1: had this absolutely monumental gaff where he went to a

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Speaker 1: George Floyd rally and he was caught on an open

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Speaker 1: mic trying to speak and the guy running the rally

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Speaker 1: is like, look, so many elected officials here were not

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Speaker 1: letting everybody speak. Well, you know it's hot out here.

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Speaker 1: We'll be here all day. And he said, I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: ask if I didn't have a primary. I wouldn't even

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Speaker 1: be here if I didn't have a primary. Led it,

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Speaker 1: and it was on the hot mic, it was on

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Speaker 1: New York One. It's like wow, and it fed into

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Speaker 1: a that's a tone deaf thing to stay at the

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Speaker 1: height of the George Floyd protests. And also he was

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Speaker 1: caught living in Maryland at the time, Like a reporter

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Speaker 1: went to his door in Maryland and found him there.

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Speaker 1: And you've been claiming you've been at these events in

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Speaker 1: New York, but you haven't been in New York at all.

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Speaker 1: He's like, I've been in both places. And there's no

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Speaker 1: evidence he'd been in both places at all. He'd just

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Speaker 1: been in Maryland. So the two things came together created

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Speaker 1: a big scandal and Bowman crushed him, even in heavily

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Speaker 1: Jewish precincts. Twenty twenty one, Jay Street takes him to

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Speaker 1: Israel and Apak takes lawmakers to Israel on these guided

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Speaker 1: tours every two years. Run Steney Hoyer organizes these trips

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Speaker 1: their bipartisan and they come back fortified in their support

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Speaker 1: for Israel. Jamal Bowman came back from that trip to

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Speaker 1: Israel a changed person, and he's talked about this, like

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Speaker 1: seeing the occupation up close in the West Bank, seeing

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Speaker 1: that Muslims could not or Palestinians could not go down

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Speaker 1: certain roads, seeing the fencing. There's this one famous street

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Speaker 1: that has kind of netting over top of the street,

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Speaker 1: and I think it's in Hebron because so many of

435
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: the Jewish Israeli settlers there throw trash onto the street

436
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,320
Speaker 1: from their settlements, so they eventually had to put up

437
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 1: a net. The highways where you can't drive if you

438
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: don't have the right license plate. You have to have

439
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,879
Speaker 1: certain permits to get different areas. He was shocked to

440
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 1: his core, and so that's why I say I wouldn't

441
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: describe the political decisions he made after that a mistakes,

442
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,800
Speaker 1: because he decided that this was wrong and this was

443
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,320
Speaker 1: something he was going to stand up for now. He

444
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: did in the time since then, he did not build

445
00:22:16,840 --> 00:22:22,080
Speaker 1: inroads into the Jewish community. He did not come to

446
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: the synagogues. And this is what they say, that he

447
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 1: didn't come to the synagogues and have this dialogue with them.

448
00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 1: He didn't talk to them about his experience that he'd

449
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:32,000
Speaker 1: had there. It was it was more of just a

450
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: public kind of political campaign that he was running, and

451
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 1: that's what he felt was appropriate. But what it did

452
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,640
Speaker 1: is it drove this wedge even among say the liberals

453
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 1: in his district, who might say, you know what, I

454
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,520
Speaker 1: agree with you, I'm against the occupation and again this

455
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: and that they felt like they had just kind of

456
00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 1: lost touch with him, and he didn't care about that community.

457
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 1: And so it's interesting that Apak spent nearly twenty million

458
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: dollars in this race because his initial race is what

459
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 1: basically brought a pack into the Super Pac game. Like

460
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 1: DMFI spending two million dollars and losing to Jamal Bowman

461
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: convinced a pack, Okay, DMFI is not cut out for

462
00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 1: this on its own. Yeah, they're raising five ten million

463
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,639
Speaker 1: dollars a year. We can do much better than that.

464
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 1: That's why they came in in twenty twenty two and

465
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: spent thirty forty fifty million dollars. And why they came

466
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: in and just spent nearly twenty million just in this race.

467
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 3: What was wasn't it fourteen? The total somewhere like fourteen

468
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 3: point for Bowman this race.

469
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,600
Speaker 1: I saw seventeen, but I don't think we've seen a

470
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:37,440
Speaker 1: final number either.

471
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,880
Speaker 3: I mean, either way, it is the most expensive race,

472
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 3: and all because of a pack. It's the most expensive

473
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 3: what house race in the history of house races?

474
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 1: Yes, it is, and that's including the David Trone, like

475
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: the total Wine guy who spent like twelve of his

476
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 1: own million dollars to finish in third place in one

477
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,359
Speaker 1: race and then spent more than like roughly that to

478
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 1: finally win, and god knows what he's spent to lose

479
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: his Senate race this year. That's a I forgot. That's

480
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 1: a different question. Yeah, most expensive race in history. But

481
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 1: it's also this New York like buying airtime in New

482
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:19,120
Speaker 1: York is insanely expensive, and to blanket the airwaves, especially

483
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 1: when you have to buy New York air, but it's

484
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 1: like suburban New York that you're actually aiming for is

485
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: going to cost you an enormous amount of money.

486
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 3: So interestingly, there was a report in Axios this morning

487
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: after Bowman as the dust was kind of clearing. That

488
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 3: quoted a House Democrat saying it felt kind of gross

489
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,080
Speaker 3: the amount of money that had been spent on the

490
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 3: Bowman race, and that like a pack. It was this

491
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: sort of rebut not rebuttal. It was this rebuke almost

492
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 3: off the record. Of course all of these people were

493
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,639
Speaker 3: talking off the record, but of how APAC had handled

494
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,000
Speaker 3: this race, saying this was too much. It was it's

495
00:24:54,040 --> 00:24:56,719
Speaker 3: not even this from people who are sounded like very

496
00:24:56,720 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: supportive of APAC, saying this is starting to actually undermine

497
00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: your cause and give people reason to say you're out

498
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: here putting gross amounts of money to buy races, and

499
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 3: it's not feeling like so democratic anymore. It's feeling a

500
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 3: little bit like big money.

501
00:25:13,440 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 1: And if you look at APAX donors, they're mostly Republicans,

502
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: which bothers Democrats more than the fact that it's APACK.

503
00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 3: Although not the voters in New York sixteen.

504
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 1: Well, it's not as if. It's not as if the

505
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,720
Speaker 1: ads say funded by Republican donors who have given money

506
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 1: to APACK. It says this ad was supported by United

507
00:25:31,240 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: Democracy Project like I'm for United Democracies. Also was great well.

508
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 3: I also thought Latimer's messaging was interesting with the way

509
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:43,119
Speaker 3: Bowman ran his campaign, where Latimer Latimer was saying, I

510
00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:46,399
Speaker 3: won't want to end the chaos in Washington, DC, and

511
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 3: then just in the last few days. I'm sure actually

512
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 3: in April poll matched the results that we got last

513
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:56,440
Speaker 3: night pretty closely. But you have the chaos if you're

514
00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 3: a voter. Was just trying to feed your family, take your

515
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 3: kids of soccerbractics or whatever. Looking at Jamal Bowman like

516
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,960
Speaker 3: jumping around saying fa pack whatever else he said, and

517
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 3: then a guy and also the whole fire thing, the

518
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 3: nine to eleven conspiracy theories, which don't always play so

519
00:26:14,960 --> 00:26:18,199
Speaker 3: well in New York. And he had walked back, you know,

520
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 3: sort of on a parallel track with Mersher, Taylor Green, you.

521
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: Know, and a lot of anti Bowman people, to your

522
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 1: point about APAC's gross amount of spending, are frustrated that

523
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: APEX spends so much money because now they can't make

524
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,919
Speaker 1: the argument that Bowman was unpopular yep, and that his

525
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: constituents rejected his brand of politics, you know, fair and square, right,

526
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: but you just can't say that you can you can

527
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 1: believe it, And I've heard people make a reasonable case

528
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 1: that Latimer, absent interventions from either side, might have beaten

529
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: Jamal Bowman because of the district that he's running in

530
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,879
Speaker 1: the politics around it. But nobody can say that with

531
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 1: any confidence because that's not what happened. A pack came

532
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 1: in and dropped at least you know, we'll see the

533
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: final total in the end, but you know, more money

534
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 1: than has ever been dropped by any single organization in

535
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:13,199
Speaker 1: a in a congressional race before, and that obviously tilts

536
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: the scale, and so now it it makes it so

537
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: that nobody has to actually talk about the issues at play,

538
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 1: and instead both sides you can say, look at look

539
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: at look at the sheer amount of money. And from

540
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 1: the Democratic side, and we're going to talk about this

541
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: later in our in our a PAC block, it is

542
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: this isn't the A pack block right right? It is

543
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: wild that Democrats are allowing in democratic primaries Republican billionaires

544
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 1: to funnel so much money into their primaries. It's kind

545
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,640
Speaker 1: of an incredible situation and I just don't think Republicans

546
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: would ever allow that.

547
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 3: I also think progressives and you know, Corey Bush is

548
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 3: while worth talking about in this context, looks like she

549
00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 3: might lose her.

550
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: Primary tough one Elan O. Mar's got a tough race.

551
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: A nail bider in Minnesota with Ohan Omar. I think

552
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 3: progressives have struggled to connect these really front and center,

553
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 3: high profile discussions about Israel and Palestine to the material

554
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:14,840
Speaker 3: concerns of some of their voters who for whatever reason,

555
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 3: and we can all disagree with the reasons, but just

556
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,959
Speaker 3: don't care as much about the issue.

557
00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 1: This is the only district where they where they even

558
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: talked somewhat about Israel Palestine. When APAK runs its ads,

559
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,920
Speaker 1: even in this district, they were they were not about

560
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 1: Israel Palestine, like when they were going after Bowman. They're

561
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: going after Bowman for not being a loyal enough Democrat

562
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 1: with holding his vote on the infrastructure bill like that.

563
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 3: I'm sure they dugged that Opo and.

564
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: Like Firepole on the fire alarm.

565
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,240
Speaker 3: Which he should not have done, and then he shouldn't.

566
00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: Have lied about it like he's a principal, and so

567
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: that I think that hurt him because like principles know

568
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: how fire alarms.

569
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 3: Were, like he thought it was the door, is what

570
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:55,080
Speaker 3: he said.

571
00:28:55,240 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 1: And so even a PAK like doesn't run on Israel Palestine. Right,

572
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:02,719
Speaker 1: they pull what they think is going to be damaging

573
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 1: to their opponent and then they run on that.

574
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 3: But they I mean, the candid it's what they're I mean,

575
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 3: it's the reality they're facing, is that it's going to

576
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 3: get I mean, it's going to get dragged into the

577
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 3: center of the race, even if APAC knows that it's

578
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 3: not front and center concerns of voters and media conversation

579
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 3: about Corey Bush.

580
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,479
Speaker 1: I mean, it's what it's the media conversation, but like

581
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: on the ground, so it will be Wesley Bell versus

582
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 1: Corey Bush. It's the ads are not going to be

583
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 1: about Israel palestime for the most part. You know, Corey

584
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: Bush will be talking about how she stood up for

585
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: renters and fought against the ending the foreclosure more time,

586
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 1: and I guess deliver for Saint Louis that she's brought

587
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 1: back money like Summer League did in Pittsburgh, whereas Wesley

588
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 1: Bell will say it's too much drama.

589
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 3: You know, well that's what I was going to say

590
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 3: a guy like me, And I think it just plays

591
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 3: into the broader narrative of chaos and like an extremism.

592
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,160
Speaker 3: And I do think that progressive Democrats need to find

593
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,720
Speaker 3: a better way to talk about the issue that neutralizes

594
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 3: that just the reality that it's going to be used as.

595
00:30:00,600 --> 00:30:04,720
Speaker 1: I mean, Summerly basically showed how to do that, and

596
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: Corey Bush is kind of modeling her campaign after summer Lease.

597
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: Summer Ly. If you look at her, she's basically a

598
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: squad member of you. But if you look at her

599
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: advertising and her messaging in Pittsburgh, it's indistinguishable from a

600
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 1: normal Democrat. And that's to the point that if you

601
00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 1: have a big turnout in a Democratic primary election, there

602
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: are a lot of normy Democrats who that's just what

603
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: they want.

604
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 3: Let's talk about Lauren Bobert.

605
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 1: Why not normies?

606
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: Yes, Lauren Bobert won her primary and the Beetlejuice district.

607
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 3: Kidding you remember the Beetlejuice story.

608
00:30:41,600 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: Oh my god, the play.

609
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 3: I'm sorry that I had to remind you of that

610
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 3: because the image is indoubtable. But we have the results

611
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 3: from Lauren Bobert's race. This turned out to be a

612
00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 3: pretty healthy district, pretty healthy primary win for her forty

613
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 3: three points, though she didn't get over half because the

614
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 3: so the vote was split between all of these other

615
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 3: candidates This is ken Buckelle District. As we mentioned right

616
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 3: up at the top. What's very interesting about this situation

617
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 3: is that the establishment guy, Jeff Hurd, he won the

618
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: Republican primary in Lauren Bobert's current district, so the third

619
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 3: congressional district. She switched districts feeling like she was going

620
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 3: to lose, and she probably would have lost. Actually we

621
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 3: don't know, but she probably would have lost from that

622
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 3: third district outside Denver to this district, which is I believe, Yeah,

623
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 3: it's the fourth congressional district, and the establishment guy, not

624
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,240
Speaker 3: a big maga guy, is the one who ended up

625
00:31:39,280 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 3: winning her actual district that she'll be vacating obviously moving

626
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 3: over to this new district.

627
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 1: Now, now, in Texas, you have to get over fifty

628
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 1: percent in a primary or you go to a runoff.

629
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: So if the Republicans in Colorado were running on the

630
00:31:55,520 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: Texas primary model, you now have a runoff between Bobert

631
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 1: and what was her name, Jenny, the second place candidate there.

632
00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:07,520
Speaker 1: How do you think that goes? Do you think that

633
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 1: there's enough anti Bobert sentiment in that district that she

634
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: actually ends up losing and that she only won because

635
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 1: the anti Bobert vote was split, or do you think

636
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: that a decent number of those candidates had as a

637
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: second choice Bobert so that she'd win in a primary anyway,

638
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: Because the point here is that Bowman last year had

639
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: two opponents. To last election had two opponents, and he

640
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,480
Speaker 1: got like fifty four percent of the vote. He won

641
00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: comfortably because they split the anti Bowman vote, But for

642
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 1: people watching closely, it was a warning sign, like, oh,

643
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: you were just four percentage points over a majority. You

644
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 1: could have lost that race if there was a single

645
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 1: opponent against you. She's only forty three.

646
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 3: She reminds me. Her problems remind me of Bowman's in

647
00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:54,920
Speaker 3: some respect, just thinking about the fire alarm situation and

648
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 3: the OPO that was dragged out on his previous sort

649
00:32:57,240 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 3: of poetry blog that dabbled in nine to eleven truth theorism,

650
00:33:02,880 --> 00:33:04,640
Speaker 3: and also kind of reminds me of Marjorie Tayler Green.

651
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 3: I made a joke about that earlier, the sort of

652
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:11,400
Speaker 3: media double standard aside. I think it's really interesting that

653
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 3: people who are like now in Congress were pulled in

654
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 3: those directions, because I think it's tempting for all of

655
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:23,160
Speaker 3: us and I don't think it's isolated to them, And

656
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:27,400
Speaker 3: I think the populism in particular, when you're seeking out

657
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 3: explanations for the just rapid changes de industrialization, material concerns

658
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 3: that have accelerated, you know, it's not crazy to get

659
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:43,480
Speaker 3: pulled down in crazy directions. You just have to sort

660
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 3: of be vigilant against those things. But I think Lauren

661
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: Bobert with Jamal Bowman in that sort of fire alarm

662
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 3: versus beetlejuice situation, they just look ridiculous. And I know

663
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 3: Lauren Bobert ran on she used to own a bar

664
00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: right that was like a Second Amendment the bar basically

665
00:34:01,520 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 3: like a gun themed bar. I think it was called

666
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 3: Shooters something like that.

667
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: If you like, it had more health code violations.

668
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 3: Than like did it really so SI had a good restaurant.

669
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean I think there's she just lost

670
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 3: a lot of you know, even as like this populous,

671
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 3: and to.

672
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,840
Speaker 1: Survive, she jumped districts. I wonder what would have happened

673
00:34:24,880 --> 00:34:30,080
Speaker 1: if Bowman jumped districts and ran against Richie Torres and numbers.

674
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:32,000
Speaker 3: That's super interesting.

675
00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 1: Maybe two years from now that's what he'll do.

676
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:36,080
Speaker 3: I think. I think Boba probably would have lost, but

677
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 3: it's hard to say, just given how much money that

678
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: you can raise when you are super maga. Right now,

679
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:43,560
Speaker 3: I don't know how Trump would have dealt with anything

680
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 3: like that. That reminds me to read this Dave Wiggle tweet.

681
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 3: He said this might be the worst primary night for

682
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 3: Trump endorsed GP candidates all year. Burns loses narrowly in

683
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 3: South Carolina, Dave Williams getting crushed in Colorado. Five all

684
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 3: before the Utah Senate race comes in and Pol's had

685
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 3: voted Trump back Trent Stags down big, And indeed Trent

686
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 3: Stags did go down to John Curtis, who ended up

687
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: winning the primary for that Romney seat. We can put

688
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: that up on the screen. That's be five. He was

689
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 3: definitely not the Trump pick in the Utah race and

690
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 3: ended up winning by double digits fifty endors thirty. I

691
00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: believe Romney did endorse John Curtise. Yeah, he's like people

692
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 3: see him as like a Romney two point zero kind

693
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 3: of if.

694
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 1: That makes sense, And I've seen political scientists say that,

695
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 1: if not for the counterfactual of Joseph Smith wandering out

696
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: to Utah and creating Mormonism, out there that Utah would

697
00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 1: actually be a blue state because of the if in

698
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: other words, if Utah residents voted the same way as

699
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,879
Speaker 1: you know, urban suburban and ex urban voters and role

700
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 1: voters vote in every other state in the country, there

701
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 1: are enough urban and suburban voters just concentrated around Salt

702
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 1: Lake City that it would be a democratic state. But

703
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: because of Mormonism and the conservative strain in it, it's

704
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,799
Speaker 1: a red state. But that would also explain why it

705
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: is anti Trump and trends toward this kind of Curtis

706
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 1: Romney style.

707
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, the governor Spencer Cox is also sort of in

708
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:26,880
Speaker 3: that mold. There's a very particular type of Republican that

709
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 3: comes from Utah. And it's not behind me right now,

710
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 3: I just looked. But the book that's behind me sometimes

711
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 3: is called Alienated America by Tim Carney. In Utah plays

712
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,120
Speaker 3: a big role in that book because it has a

713
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 3: really high level of sort of civic society, civil society,

714
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 3: meaning that community bonds are really tight. They have robust

715
00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 3: like rotary clubs and all of that stuff. And it's

716
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 3: one of the few red states that was not few,

717
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 3: it's one of the handful of red states that was

718
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:58,720
Speaker 3: sort of ardently anti Trump in the Republican primary twenty fifteen,

719
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 3: twenty sixteen, And that is an interesting point along the

720
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 3: lines of what you were making. If you go to

721
00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 3: you know, rural Wisconsin super like old DEM districts, super

722
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 3: pro Trump, but in states or in places where the

723
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 3: social fabric was stronger, southeastern Wisconsin, they're pretty anti Trump

724
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:22,359
Speaker 3: and anti populism. So I think there's something to that

725
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 3: about Utah in particular. But it's also hard to extricate

726
00:37:26,400 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 3: the Mormonism from the Utahism.

727
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: Too utterly impossible. And if they just solve the drinking

728
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,399
Speaker 1: water problem, you'd all be doing great anything else.

729
00:37:34,440 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 3: Oh John avalon CNN guy, But more importantly, I think

730
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 3: he helped co found no Labels. He won his primary

731
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 3: in New York.

732
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 1: As well, Staten Island or something was it?

733
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,480
Speaker 3: Is it the George Santos seat. It's somewhere up that. No,

734
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 3: it's well, maybe it's New York's first district. But John Avil, Yeah,

735
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,120
Speaker 3: all right, Haiti, we can go ahead and start running

736
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 3: some of this footage. This is c one. This is

737
00:38:03,320 --> 00:38:07,479
Speaker 3: troops arriving in Porta Prince Kenyan troops arriving in Porta

738
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 3: Prince yesterday. This block is called Haiti. On the screen,

739
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:13,239
Speaker 3: it could also be called Kenya though Ryan because this

740
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:18,080
Speaker 3: was unfolding, called America right, or yeah, this was unfolding

741
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 3: as just we could literally put it on a split

742
00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 3: screen with what was happening in Nairobi yesterday, which was

743
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 3: just a demonstration that as of right now, according to

744
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 3: the Human Rights Commission of Kenya, left twenty to twenty

745
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 3: two people dead. A section of their parliament, as the

746
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:40,400
Speaker 3: BBC reported, went up in flames as demonstrations against a

747
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 3: new tax proposal escalated. I'll keep reading from this BBC report.

748
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 3: They said protests against an unpopular finance bill, which included

749
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 3: several tax rises, have been going for days, but they

750
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,719
Speaker 3: escalated on Tuesday as MP's passed an amended bill. Protesters

751
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 3: broke into Parliament, vandalizing the interior and setting parts of

752
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: the complex on fire. The ceremonial may symbol the authority

753
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 3: of the legislature was stolen. Police open fire with live ammunition,

754
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 3: killing at least five people, according to the Kenyan Medical Association.

755
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 3: This is a quote from twenty four year old named Derek,

756
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 3: who told the BBC there are some things that are

757
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,920
Speaker 3: hard to understand, like how can you impose a sixteen

758
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:21,800
Speaker 3: percent tax on bread? How can you tax sanitary pads?

759
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:24,920
Speaker 3: That was a reference to proposals that were in the

760
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:28,239
Speaker 3: original bill that fueled some of these protests. We should,

761
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 3: of course note that this is the troops that landed

762
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,799
Speaker 3: Import of Prince yesterday, the Kenyan troops that landed Import

763
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,359
Speaker 3: of Prince yesterday. It's absolutely part of a US back

764
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 3: scheme to basically, I mean, we don't know how it's

765
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,640
Speaker 3: going to end. We can probably guess how it's going

766
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 3: to end, but to engineer the preferred outcome of the

767
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 3: United States in Haiti. And it comes as a pretty

768
00:39:51,239 --> 00:39:55,440
Speaker 3: important time in Africa for the United States. They just

769
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 3: gave them what the first Sub Saharan African country, Biden did.

770
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 3: He designated them a major non NATO ally ally right

771
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 3: around the same time that these negotiations over Haiti are happening.

772
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,439
Speaker 1: We put that up. I think that's C five. Sorry

773
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 1: to jump around on you, but you can put up

774
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 1: C five there.

775
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 3: It all goes together. And that's one of.

776
00:40:14,600 --> 00:40:17,920
Speaker 1: The important things here. Yes, and so William Rutau. One

777
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,719
Speaker 1: of the things that one of the things that the

778
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: US dangles in front of foreign leaders in exchange for

779
00:40:25,880 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 1: things that they want is a trip to Washington, and

780
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 1: William rutto accepted that trip to Washington. He was here

781
00:40:32,600 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 1: very recently. One of the things that they announced was

782
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 1: that you know they're gonna name Kenya is this major

783
00:40:38,200 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 1: non NATO ally all. You know, they were now some

784
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 1: debt forgiveness and some other some other schemes that are

785
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 1: supposed to make Kenyon leaders happy. Coincidentally, William Rutteau is

786
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,280
Speaker 1: one of the first people, if not the first people

787
00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 1: ever charged by the International Criminal Court were for war

788
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: crimes for a slaughter that he was allegedly heavily involved in.

789
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 1: They eventually dropped those charges and now he's now he's

790
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:13,960
Speaker 1: president of Kenya. The Kenya has also been doing all

791
00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 1: sorts of pro very weird, pro us stuff, weird in

792
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 1: the sense that it doesn't fit with kind of what

793
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:22,959
Speaker 1: the politics of the region might indicate. They're the only

794
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: country there that joined our kind of anti Huti coalition.

795
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,919
Speaker 1: And you'll often see if you look at that giant

796
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:34,640
Speaker 1: UN billboard, when let's say there's an Israel Palestine vote,

797
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:36,839
Speaker 1: in the entire world is voting one way and there's

798
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: like countries you've never heard of that are like Pacific

799
00:41:40,120 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 1: Islands and the US are voting the other way. Kenya

800
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 1: will be there with them too. Yeah, like what that's

801
00:41:45,680 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: going on here with Kenya? You can also if you

802
00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: want to go down a rabbit hole, go check out

803
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: Kenya's election in which Ruto won in a very very

804
00:41:55,120 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: scandal plagued election by like zero point one percent or something,

805
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 1: with all sorts of anomalies and all sorts of allegations

806
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 1: that that it was rigged and that the that the

807
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: US is preferred candidate Rutto came out on top despite

808
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 1: not having actual actual majority support. And then fast forward,

809
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: US wants international troops to go into Haiti. The US

810
00:42:20,560 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: feels like, okay, we can't. We've sent in the Marines

811
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: too many times into Haiti.

812
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 3: And who we've sent the UN too many times in

813
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:29,680
Speaker 3: the Haiti right, and what's and what's it?

814
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 1: Almost it feels racist. It's like, well, we need some

815
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 1: African troops to like do this invasion for us. You

816
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,920
Speaker 1: know who can help us out? Oh, we've been doing

817
00:42:38,920 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 1: a lot of favors for Kenya. Can you will do this?

818
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: It's very unpopular in Kenya. This, this this invasion is

819
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 1: extremely unpopular. They had to pay the Kenyan troops. I

820
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,439
Speaker 1: think it's reported they're getting paid an extra fifteen hundred

821
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 1: dollars a month on top of their salaries, which is

822
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 1: which is only further fueling resentment in Haiti because Haitian

823
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 1: police officers aren't even getting paid right, Like they haven't

824
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 1: been paid in months at best, and they're like, wait

825
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 1: a minute, but you're paying them fifteen you know, the

826
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:12,320
Speaker 1: average you know, Haitian police officer makes it a tiny

827
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 1: fraction of that. And you know, there are reports that

828
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 1: the base that the US built for these canyons isn't

829
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 1: really ready yet. And then the question is what on

830
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: earth are they going to do? Like what what do

831
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: we think a couple thousand foreign police officers are going

832
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:34,840
Speaker 1: to do in a situation that is completely out of control?

833
00:43:35,880 --> 00:43:36,120
Speaker 1: Like what?

834
00:43:36,320 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 4: Like what? Like it?

835
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:43,120
Speaker 1: It literally makes no sense, like what what? What is

836
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 1: the goal here? Like in other words, so they set

837
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 1: up this presidential council in a hotel room in Jamaica.

838
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:51,760
Speaker 1: That presidential council took a bunch of resumes.

839
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 3: Which is we've seen the same thing play up before.

840
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, they say they took a bunch of resumes. They

841
00:43:55,560 --> 00:44:00,399
Speaker 1: took sixty resumes from people applying to be a black minister. Yeah,

842
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 1: they narrowed it down to five. They did a bunch

843
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: of interviews, uh, and then they picked a guy from

844
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:09,799
Speaker 1: UNICEF to be the prime Minister of Haiti. That's not

845
00:44:10,400 --> 00:44:13,520
Speaker 1: a political solution that has the buy in of the

846
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:15,000
Speaker 1: of the Haitian people.

847
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 3: Right, you have the buy in of the United States

848
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 3: and maybe US some.

849
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 1: Elements some elements of uh, you know, the Haitian elite,

850
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,279
Speaker 1: which were you know, jockeying and lobbying and pressuring to

851
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 1: try to get their preferred prime minister outcome. But prime

852
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 1: minister of what like of a handful of Kenyan troops

853
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: or police officers, not troops.

854
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 3: So, and this is also in the context of I

855
00:44:40,200 --> 00:44:44,440
Speaker 3: mean some people describe it as a second scramble for Africa,

856
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 3: Russia and some sort of radical Islamic efforts to capture

857
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 3: different countries. The United States is trying to keep some

858
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 3: of that at Bay, is trying to maintain its power

859
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 3: up with China as well, and so that's where you

860
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 3: see Kenya becoming especially important to the United States. Kenny

861
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:07,439
Speaker 3: is in a lot of debt. They have to pay,

862
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 3: like us, a lot of interest on their debt. That's

863
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 3: where like.

864
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,840
Speaker 1: US, it can't just have the Federal Reserve handle that

865
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:14,600
Speaker 1: right now.

866
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:18,719
Speaker 3: And so that's where the sort of financial squeeze push

867
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 3: people into the streets. Let's actually roll C two because

868
00:45:23,560 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 3: Barack Obama's half sister was on CNN was being tear

869
00:45:28,480 --> 00:45:32,399
Speaker 3: gassed on CNN reportedly. Let's roll this footage C two.

870
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:33,840
Speaker 4: Come speak to.

871
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: Live on CNN.

872
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:37,760
Speaker 4: Why are you here today?

873
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 5: I'm here because look at what's happening.

874
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 3: Young Kenyans demonstrating for their rights.

875
00:45:46,480 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 5: They're demonstating with flags and banners. I can't even see anymore.

876
00:46:09,120 --> 00:46:11,879
Speaker 3: So that sign, if you were watching it said colonialism

877
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:16,280
Speaker 3: never ended. One of the fellow protesters with Alma Obama

878
00:46:16,680 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 3: had to sign that side colonialism never ended. That was

879
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 3: here gas. You could hear shots in the background, so

880
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 3: we can put the next element up on the screen here.

881
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:29,239
Speaker 3: That's because yeah, they were fired their protesters were being

882
00:46:29,280 --> 00:46:32,839
Speaker 3: fired on in the streets. Obviously, we mentioned earlier that

883
00:46:33,200 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 3: part of the Parliament went up on went up in

884
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 3: flames yesterday as well. This is from the Associated Press quote.

885
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:43,880
Speaker 3: The Finance bill was meant to raise or introduce taxes

886
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 3: or fees on a range of daily items and services,

887
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: including internet data, fuel, bank transfers, in diapers. Some measures

888
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:51,719
Speaker 3: were stripped as Anchor grew, and it's all part of

889
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:54,280
Speaker 3: the Kenyan government's efforts to raise an extra two point

890
00:46:54,440 --> 00:47:01,239
Speaker 3: seven billion dollars in domestic revenue. Obviously, then sending well

891
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:05,839
Speaker 3: paid troops to Haiti not going to be popular either,

892
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 3: I'm assuming, and actually I think the US did pay

893
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 3: for that operation.

894
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, the US is paying for it in lots

895
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:19,200
Speaker 1: of different ways, right, yes. And meanwhile some people watching

896
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:20,360
Speaker 1: them and say, well, what do you want to do

897
00:47:20,400 --> 00:47:24,359
Speaker 1: in Haiti? Well, a not that like, that's not that's

898
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: not like just because you don't have any other ideas,

899
00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 1: it's not an argument for sending an international like invasionary

900
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 1: force into try to occupy Haiti. Like, there are Haitian

901
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 1: political elements that are trying to work toward some type

902
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: of solution and if the kind of United Nations want

903
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 1: to support that, they can do that with support for uh,

904
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 1: you know, Haitian farmers, Haitian Haitian merchants, Haitian Haitian businesses,

905
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: Haitian organizations that are trying to come together and you

906
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 1: can help import the things that they that they need

907
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 1: to get off the ground. But just coming in with

908
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:06,800
Speaker 1: more guns and putting Kenyan troops in a base is

909
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:11,440
Speaker 1: only it's kind of suppressing whatever kind of whatever political

910
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:16,520
Speaker 1: reckoning and political dialogue needs to happen to eventually get somewhere.

911
00:48:17,760 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 1: You've tried, We've been trying, they've been Yeah, we have

912
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:25,240
Speaker 1: been trying to impose some type of situation on Haiti

913
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:26,040
Speaker 1: for two hundred years.

914
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:28,720
Speaker 3: Well, with similar methods too, very similar methods.

915
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 1: You know, we just dress them up differently, and troops

916
00:48:31,400 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 1: from different countries different times, but the same thing. Yeah,

917
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,520
Speaker 1: all right. You might remember that back in early May,

918
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:41,440
Speaker 1: we reported here and at the Intercept that APAK, the

919
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:45,280
Speaker 1: lobby group that describes itself as pro Israel, was secretly

920
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 1: intervening in a congressional primary in Portland, Oregon, in order

921
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:53,760
Speaker 1: to block the sister of Promila Giapaul names Sushila Giapaul,

922
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:56,360
Speaker 1: from winning an open primary. Now I reported that a

923
00:48:56,560 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: PAK was routing its money through a super pack that

924
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:03,320
Speaker 1: claims to have a pro science mission called three fourteen Action,

925
00:49:03,800 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 1: and that it also appeared APAC was funneling money through

926
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: a different pack called Voters for Responsive Government. APAC's allies

927
00:49:11,800 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: furiously denied the reporting, arguing it played into antisemitic tropes.

928
00:49:16,760 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: Yet about a week later, Jiapaul's opponent, Maxine Dexter, was

929
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:24,240
Speaker 1: forced to disclose some of her last minute surgeon funding,

930
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: and it turned out it was coming from donors who

931
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 1: regularly gave to APAC. One of the donors who had

932
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: maxed out to Dexter even told me she wasn't aware

933
00:49:32,160 --> 00:49:35,400
Speaker 1: of the contribution, but that she green lights whatever APAC

934
00:49:35,560 --> 00:49:38,279
Speaker 1: asks her to do. She told me, quote, I give

935
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: all my contributions through APAC. Still, they refused to disclose

936
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 1: their super pac spending down the stretch, and three fourteen

937
00:49:46,520 --> 00:49:49,600
Speaker 1: Action even brazenly lied about the source of the money.

938
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 1: And when I say that they lied, I mean they

939
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 1: straight up, baldfaced lied. The super PACs were relying on

940
00:49:56,120 --> 00:50:00,360
Speaker 1: a campaign rule that treats them differently than candidates. Candidates

941
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,000
Speaker 1: have to disclose every forty eight hours down the stretch

942
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 1: of the campaign, so nobody can sneak in new money,

943
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 1: but super PACs only have to disclose their previous month's

944
00:50:09,239 --> 00:50:13,040
Speaker 1: funding on the twentieth day of the next month. The

945
00:50:13,080 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 1: election was scheduled for May twenty first, and on May twentieth,

946
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 1: super PACs would have had to declare all of their

947
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 1: fundraising from April. On May twentieth. Now, Voters for Responsive

948
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 1: Government filed a report that claimed it had not raised

949
00:50:28,080 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 1: or spent a single penny in April, yet they had

950
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 1: ads out to the market by May second. In other words,

951
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 1: their claiming they raised money, hired contractors, produced ads, set

952
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:44,080
Speaker 1: up bank accounts, and placed the media by all in

953
00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:47,280
Speaker 1: twenty four hours, with none of that work happening in April.

954
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:51,160
Speaker 1: Of course, that's basically impossible. But the reason they needed

955
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 1: to make that claim on their paperwork was so that

956
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,680
Speaker 1: they could then delay disclosure of everything all the way

957
00:50:56,800 --> 00:51:01,280
Speaker 1: until June twentieth, a month after the election. Three fourteen

958
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,680
Speaker 1: Action also pushed a ton of their action into their

959
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:08,640
Speaker 1: May paperwork, So on May twentieth, that's the day before

960
00:51:08,680 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 1: the election, they only disclosed three donors. One of them

961
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:14,440
Speaker 1: was an APAC guy who gave them three hundred and

962
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars, another was Michael Bloomberg, and another was

963
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 1: unrelated to the race. Now, I've been covering politics for

964
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:23,440
Speaker 1: about twenty years or so, and I have seen my

965
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:27,640
Speaker 1: share of dishonesty, but what came next reminded me I

966
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:31,600
Speaker 1: still know how to be shocked. Eric Poliak, the managing

967
00:51:31,600 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 1: director of three fourteen Action, took to Twitter on May twentieth,

968
00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 1: after they released their donors to taunt me, saying, quote

969
00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:44,279
Speaker 1: waiting on Ryan Grimm to issue a retraction. What's so

970
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,200
Speaker 1: stunning about this denial is that when Eric made it

971
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 1: on May twentieth, he knew that on May first, three

972
00:51:51,320 --> 00:51:55,240
Speaker 1: fourteen Action had cashed a million dollar check from United

973
00:51:55,280 --> 00:51:59,879
Speaker 1: Democracy Project APAX Superpack. And he knew that a month later,

974
00:52:00,080 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 1: on June twentieth, that fact would become public. Yet he

975
00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 1: decided to knowingly lie to the public. Anyway. Here it

976
00:52:07,640 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 1: is in three fourteen Actions June twentieth filing. So that's

977
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 1: a lot of zero's on the small screen there, but

978
00:52:13,960 --> 00:52:16,399
Speaker 1: I can count them for you. There's six of them.

979
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:20,160
Speaker 1: That's a million dollars. In other words, Pollyok knew his

980
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: organization was spending a million dollars of APAX money on

981
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,239
Speaker 1: top of lots more from APAC directed donors, Yet he

982
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:30,680
Speaker 1: said exactly the opposite the day before the election. Now,

983
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 1: on May second, a few days before my article initially

984
00:52:33,440 --> 00:52:36,800
Speaker 1: confirmed apax's role in the race. Giapaul and her opponent,

985
00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 1: Eddie Morales held a rare joint press conference raising questions

986
00:52:40,840 --> 00:52:42,919
Speaker 1: about the source of the new money in the race.

987
00:52:43,560 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 1: Poliak took to Twitter to mock them. He wrote, after

988
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 1: Soushila Giapaul and Eddie Morales veep style press conference where

989
00:52:51,719 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 1: they offered zero evidence to back the ridiculous claims, It's

990
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,240
Speaker 1: clear they're down in the polls and desperate to smear

991
00:52:58,280 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: our grassroots movement fueled by millions of contributions. So consider

992
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 1: the audacity there. He claimed to be leading a grassroots

993
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:12,879
Speaker 1: movement fueled by millions of contributions. The day after they

994
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: deposited that million dollar check, when Voters for Responsive Government

995
00:53:17,160 --> 00:53:20,319
Speaker 1: disclosed its donors, we learned that APAC had cut them

996
00:53:20,360 --> 00:53:23,480
Speaker 1: a one point three million dollar check, and eight other

997
00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 1: APAC linked donors had kicked in two point six million

998
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:31,040
Speaker 1: dollars more. According to the paperwork they filed, they managed

999
00:53:31,080 --> 00:53:36,279
Speaker 1: to raise all that money in a single day. Emily,

1000
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if you've ever done any fundraising, but

1001
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 1: calling that many people in a single day, just getting

1002
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,880
Speaker 1: them on the phone is going to be hard. All

1003
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 1: the zeros there, God, that's a lot just typing in those.

1004
00:53:49,160 --> 00:53:50,640
Speaker 1: This is going to take you more than twenty.

1005
00:53:50,440 --> 00:53:52,160
Speaker 3: Four hours, so much work for the FEC.

1006
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, what they are banking on is that the

1007
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,320
Speaker 1: FEC will look at this and be like, all right, whatever, right,

1008
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 1: who cares that we don't have enough commissioners.

1009
00:54:02,000 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 4: We don't.

1010
00:54:02,239 --> 00:54:05,680
Speaker 1: I'm a staff. We don't basically enforce laws around here.

1011
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 1: But even if they had disclosed on May twentieth, that's

1012
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 1: still was too late because there's mail in voting. Eighty

1013
00:54:13,760 --> 00:54:16,080
Speaker 1: percent of the people had already voted at that point.

1014
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 1: That was just to kind of twist the knife, to

1015
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 1: just keep it so that you didn't even have twenty

1016
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:22,759
Speaker 1: four hours to know who was funding that race.

1017
00:54:22,880 --> 00:54:25,359
Speaker 3: Isn't it just just lost? Just to be clear, right, Yeah,

1018
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 3: she lost? And isn't it just a fine if you're

1019
00:54:27,080 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 3: non compliant with FEC.

1020
00:54:28,040 --> 00:54:29,560
Speaker 1: Doesn't Yeah, And they might not even get a fine

1021
00:54:29,560 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: if the FEC doesn't bother with it.

1022
00:54:31,120 --> 00:54:33,600
Speaker 3: And even let's say the FEC does bother with it'd

1023
00:54:33,600 --> 00:54:36,320
Speaker 3: be fine. It's sort of like when you know a

1024
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 3: exonmobile gets a fine. It's just the cost of doing

1025
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 3: business when you have enough fun.

1026
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 1: They spent four million dollars in a couple of weeks. Yeah,

1027
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:45,200
Speaker 1: they can afford a little fine.

1028
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,919
Speaker 3: This is totally unrelated. But Leifang, your old Colleageluefan Feng

1029
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 3: had a great story he ran in The Guardian this

1030
00:54:52,120 --> 00:54:57,239
Speaker 3: week about basically these pro Israel groups that had been

1031
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,839
Speaker 3: lobbying on behalf of Israeli government appro says nobody had

1032
00:55:00,880 --> 00:55:05,200
Speaker 3: registered for Pharah And again, like it's the same thing

1033
00:55:05,600 --> 00:55:08,880
Speaker 3: that the cost of compliance sometimes or the cost of

1034
00:55:08,920 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 3: non compliance is just worth the non compliance. It's just

1035
00:55:12,640 --> 00:55:14,000
Speaker 3: worth what whatever.

1036
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 1: You get out, it's going to be prosecuted.

1037
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and when there's a timeline, there's like an actual

1038
00:55:18,680 --> 00:55:21,919
Speaker 3: election that you can squeeze this past. I mean, it's

1039
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:27,360
Speaker 3: just this should especially given the APAC spending patterns, this

1040
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:30,240
Speaker 3: should get people pause for the next couple of years

1041
00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:33,120
Speaker 3: about what's happening in some of these races around the country.

1042
00:55:33,120 --> 00:55:36,080
Speaker 3: And obviously you're eagle eyed and keeping you know, your

1043
00:55:36,120 --> 00:55:39,720
Speaker 3: own reporting focused on this, but uh, you know, it's

1044
00:55:39,760 --> 00:55:42,320
Speaker 3: it's got to get into local papers. Local reporters have

1045
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:44,640
Speaker 3: to pay attention to this stuff. For the purpose of ads.

1046
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 3: People should be paying attention to this stuff that's really dirty.

1047
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 1: And I talked to some local reporters who were trying

1048
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:53,239
Speaker 1: to report it out right at the time, but and

1049
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:55,719
Speaker 1: they and they wrote a couple okay stories where they

1050
00:55:55,719 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: would say, like this looks softully fishy, but they didn't

1051
00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:03,600
Speaker 1: have the sourcing to be able to just confirm that.

1052
00:56:03,640 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: They didn't have a source that I had that said like,

1053
00:56:05,120 --> 00:56:07,640
Speaker 1: oh yeah, this is actually this is definitely a pack, right,

1054
00:56:08,800 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 1: And so it makes it very tough for and especially

1055
00:56:14,760 --> 00:56:17,480
Speaker 1: you know, journalists that don't want to get accused of

1056
00:56:17,520 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 1: like trafficking and anti Semitic tropes, because you can't just

1057
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 1: go around just recklessly like suggesting without evidence that APAC

1058
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:28,920
Speaker 1: is funding a particular superpack. If you have the evidence,

1059
00:56:28,920 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 1: you can say it. And they couldn't quite prove it

1060
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:34,480
Speaker 1: because APAC had done a good enough job of keeping

1061
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:38,560
Speaker 1: its keeping its fingerprints off of the money until afterwards.

1062
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 1: Like and it's very smart in a way because it

1063
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:45,359
Speaker 1: like makes you sound crazy when you're saying it in

1064
00:56:45,400 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 1: real time, like you sound like a conspiracy theorist or

1065
00:56:48,920 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 1: a lunatic, but then afterwards like, oh yeah, that was us,

1066
00:56:53,040 --> 00:56:56,400
Speaker 1: And after the polls closed, APAC was like this shows

1067
00:56:56,960 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 1: that being pro Israel is good politics. Mm hmm. It's like, well,

1068
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:05,200
Speaker 1: if that's true, why didn't you why do you endorse

1069
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:08,640
Speaker 1: her publicly? Why did you deny that this was happening?

1070
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:10,960
Speaker 1: Like why did you? Why would you have to stress

1071
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:12,719
Speaker 1: so much, why you have to spend so much, and

1072
00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 1: why do you have to go to such extreme lengths

1073
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: to conceal the role of a pro Israel organization in

1074
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 1: this race?

1075
00:57:17,920 --> 00:57:18,120
Speaker 4: Yep?

1076
00:57:18,560 --> 00:57:21,520
Speaker 1: Like that that doesn't like, you can't you can't have

1077
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 1: it both ways. You can't say that your involvement is

1078
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:28,520
Speaker 1: shows that being you know, pro a pack is is

1079
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 1: good politics at the same time that you're hiding the

1080
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:32,720
Speaker 1: fact that a Pack was even involved.

1081
00:57:32,840 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean great reporting, crazy stuff, dirty stuff.

1082
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's crazy. And what Democrats have realized is that

1083
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 1: the vulnerability for other Democrats here is not that it's

1084
00:57:45,680 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 1: a PAC money. It's not that it's pro Israel money.

1085
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 1: There was polling done in the district where most voters

1086
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:55,160
Speaker 1: in Portland had actualely no idea who Apack even was right,

1087
00:57:55,240 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 1: because we think everybody knows who Apack is, because this

1088
00:57:58,080 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 1: is something we've covered closely. Everybody knows that. Okay, I

1089
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 1: do you always have to remind yourself that we are

1090
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:08,800
Speaker 1: weirdos like unusual that we follow politics this closely. Most

1091
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 1: voters like what's apack? Never heard of APEC absolutely. What

1092
00:58:12,240 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 1: Democratic voters don't like, however, is Republican rich people spending

1093
00:58:18,200 --> 00:58:20,920
Speaker 1: money in Democratic primaries. And if you go through, if

1094
00:58:20,920 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 1: you scroll back and look at that list of the

1095
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:25,640
Speaker 1: eight people that gave, for instance, I think you'll find

1096
00:58:25,640 --> 00:58:28,040
Speaker 1: all of those are like Republican donors, like and not

1097
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 1: just like we give to both, but like mostly Republican donors,

1098
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 1: a lot of Trump donors, and that drives Democratic primary

1099
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:38,960
Speaker 1: voters crazy. Summerlee was able to use that to her

1100
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 1: advantage in the Pittsburgh race. Others have been able to

1101
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 1: use that to their advantage. But by hiding the donors

1102
00:58:46,680 --> 00:58:50,240
Speaker 1: until after the election, you strip Democrats of the ability

1103
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 1: to say this is actually Republican money, because you don't.

1104
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 1: You could say it's Apack money if you can, if

1105
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 1: you can report that you have some evidence, but without

1106
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:00,600
Speaker 1: knowing who the specific donors are, you can't necessarily say

1107
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:04,360
Speaker 1: it's Republican money. Even though most APAC money is Republican money.

1108
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:09,040
Speaker 3: Right, is just dirty, It's dirty, dirty stuff.

1109
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 1: Right, and look, if APAC wants to spend seventeen million

1110
00:59:14,160 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 1: dollars in Jamal Bowman's race, you know, right, have at it,

1111
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:19,640
Speaker 1: right and at least in that race, they did it,

1112
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,520
Speaker 1: you know, with their chest. That's so true.

1113
00:59:23,960 --> 00:59:26,840
Speaker 3: And they got backlash or they're starting to get backlash

1114
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:29,000
Speaker 3: based on those leaks to well leaks, those off the

1115
00:59:29,040 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 3: record comments to Access this morning. I don't know how

1116
00:59:31,320 --> 00:59:35,080
Speaker 3: much of that you've heard from even relatively pro Israel

1117
00:59:35,160 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 3: Democrats who just are getting very uncomfortable with APAX tactics.

1118
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:42,880
Speaker 3: This story should be another part of that.

1119
00:59:42,920 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 1: What, yes, it should be. And but we'll see. Because

1120
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:51,640
Speaker 1: from from the Democratic leadership's perspective, I think as long

1121
00:59:51,680 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 1: as APAK you know, sticks with its mission of being

1122
00:59:56,240 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: pro Israel and does not carry the agenda of their donors,

1123
01:00:01,280 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 1: their further agenda of the donors, which which is, you know,

1124
01:00:03,960 --> 01:00:07,000
Speaker 1: a Republican agenda, because there's a republican's as long as

1125
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 1: they stick with pros your agenda and as long as

1126
01:00:09,360 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 1: they only go after progressives in primaries, then I think

1127
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 1: Democratic leadership sees that as a win win. Yeah, probably,

1128
01:00:15,680 --> 01:00:18,440
Speaker 1: like that's fine. Actually, probably you're gonna you're gonna discipline

1129
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:20,640
Speaker 1: our left flank. Ye works for us.

1130
01:00:20,680 --> 01:00:21,400
Speaker 3: Yeah sounds great.

1131
01:00:22,000 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 1: But you know, any time that you make a deal

1132
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 1: with people who are not your allies, and these Republican

1133
01:00:29,880 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: donors are quite literally your adversary political adversaries, you're taking

1134
01:00:36,000 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 1: a huge gamble. And so the question is is the

1135
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 1: is this kind of enemy of my enemy is my

1136
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:44,880
Speaker 1: friend situation really that clever or are you going to

1137
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 1: wind up you know, getting eaten by it?

1138
01:00:48,080 --> 01:00:51,520
Speaker 3: Else becomes a crutch, you know, when that money drives up,

1139
01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 3: If the money drives up in ten years or whatever,

1140
01:00:54,400 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 3: you are just left up without a huge funding.

1141
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 1: It also suppresses what you're kind of organic aalition believes

1142
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 1: about a major political issue. Yeah, absolutely, and distances you

1143
01:01:05,000 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: further from your voters.

1144
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:10,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, absolutely. It happened with a lot of the

1145
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:13,160
Speaker 3: libertarian spending, coke spending for Republicans over the years, sort

1146
01:01:13,160 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 3: of lost touch with the support for social safety net

1147
01:01:17,400 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 3: among them.

1148
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 1: That very interesting, and then look what they got Trump?

1149
01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 3: Yep, So who will be democrats?

1150
01:01:24,880 --> 01:01:27,360
Speaker 1: Trump? There you go. I think we might find out.

1151
01:01:27,360 --> 01:01:28,560
Speaker 1: We'll stick around long enough.

1152
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 3: We'll find out if we don't end up in a

1153
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 3: nuclear war.

1154
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:34,760
Speaker 1: That's right, We're going to find out if we're going

1155
01:01:34,800 --> 01:01:38,720
Speaker 1: to next with a doctor Theodore Postal, one of the

1156
01:01:38,840 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 1: leading nuclear armament experts in the world stick around for that.

1157
01:01:46,480 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 1: Joining us now is Professor emeritus from MIT. Theodore Postal

1158
01:01:51,360 --> 01:01:52,840
Speaker 1: ted thanks so much for joining us.

1159
01:01:53,240 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 4: It's my great pleasures. Thank you.

1160
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,080
Speaker 1: And so to set up this conversation, can you give

1161
01:01:58,160 --> 01:02:01,280
Speaker 1: us a kind of quick run through of of your

1162
01:02:01,800 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 1: career how you how you wound up both at the

1163
01:02:03,640 --> 01:02:08,040
Speaker 1: Pentagon and also you know, doing your doing your academic work.

1164
01:02:09,360 --> 01:02:12,240
Speaker 4: Well through a series of accidents. I was actually doing

1165
01:02:12,320 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 4: basic science, and I was increasingly concerned and interested in

1166
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:21,560
Speaker 4: the arms race. This was in the eighties when arms

1167
01:02:21,600 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 4: race was just completely out of control, and uh, I

1168
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:30,280
Speaker 4: wound up through a series of accidents and and and

1169
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 4: a very close friend of mine named Washington going to

1170
01:02:33,680 --> 01:02:37,480
Speaker 4: the Office of Technology Assessment, where I worked on a

1171
01:02:37,480 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 4: study of the MX missile, which was the big game

1172
01:02:40,440 --> 01:02:45,320
Speaker 4: in town at the time, that international game. And I

1173
01:02:45,400 --> 01:02:50,400
Speaker 4: came to the attention of the US Navy because of

1174
01:02:50,440 --> 01:02:52,480
Speaker 4: some of the work I was doing with them as

1175
01:02:52,480 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 4: as an outside analyst, and I was offered a position

1176
01:02:56,760 --> 01:03:01,560
Speaker 4: as a science and policy advisor to the Chief of

1177
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:04,840
Speaker 4: naval operations, and of course that was a great opportunity,

1178
01:03:04,920 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 4: so I took it and I wound up, you know,

1179
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:12,320
Speaker 4: very quickly in the belly of the beast. Worked a

1180
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 4: few years with the chief, saw quite a lot, which

1181
01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 4: I must say educated me to a level that maybe

1182
01:03:23,400 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 4: I should dave at this point, because you see a

1183
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:30,960
Speaker 4: combination of the most capable and the most incapable and

1184
01:03:31,040 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 4: opportunistic people. You see the spread you know, very very

1185
01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:38,560
Speaker 4: good and very very bad people. And it gave me,

1186
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:45,880
Speaker 4: I think, an extremely refined understanding of how these bureaucracies work.

1187
01:03:46,760 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 4: And of course I took the opportunity to I spent

1188
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:58,960
Speaker 4: many nights in a cage reading classified documents to learn

1189
01:03:59,000 --> 01:04:02,240
Speaker 4: as much as I could about the weapon systems that

1190
01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 4: you know that I'm supposed to be advising on them.

1191
01:04:05,920 --> 01:04:09,000
Speaker 4: And that gave me a baseline that I've been able

1192
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 4: to build on for decades.

1193
01:04:11,160 --> 01:04:14,720
Speaker 1: So it's just of accidents, Yeah, and I think baseline

1194
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 1: is definitely being humble there. I think one of the

1195
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:20,680
Speaker 1: foremost experts on the on the issue we're talking about here,

1196
01:04:20,800 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 1: we start with kind of E E two. Here is

1197
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:27,240
Speaker 1: the Washing Post article headline kind of concerning headline US

1198
01:04:27,320 --> 01:04:33,840
Speaker 1: concerned about Ukraine strikes on Russian nuclear radar stations. So

1199
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 1: walk us, walk us through why the US is concerned

1200
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:40,080
Speaker 1: about this, and why we ought to be concerned about

1201
01:04:40,080 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 1: this as well, what what is what is Ukraine doing here?

1202
01:04:43,320 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 4: Well, the US should be concerned about this, and unfortunately,

1203
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 4: I think the US has to take responsibility for this

1204
01:04:49,840 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 4: because of these radar stations are critical to the early

1205
01:04:55,640 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 4: warning systems of Russia, and Russia, unlike US, does not

1206
01:05:01,520 --> 01:05:05,960
Speaker 4: have satellites in space that are capable of seeing the

1207
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 4: whole Earth from space. We have this kind of capability,

1208
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 4: So if they lose a radar, they have no way

1209
01:05:16,600 --> 01:05:20,600
Speaker 4: of knowing what's coming at them from that direction, whereas

1210
01:05:20,640 --> 01:05:24,000
Speaker 4: if we lose a radar, we just simply go to

1211
01:05:24,040 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 4: our satellites and look down and say, oh, yeah, we

1212
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 4: can see nothing is happening there. Now, given the high

1213
01:05:30,880 --> 01:05:36,040
Speaker 4: state of tension between Russia and the United States at

1214
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:41,960
Speaker 4: this time, I think it's extraordinarily dangerous to tamper with

1215
01:05:42,200 --> 01:05:46,000
Speaker 4: anything that has anything to do with Russia's early morning

1216
01:05:46,040 --> 01:05:51,000
Speaker 4: capabilities because they are going to be more alert at

1217
01:05:51,000 --> 01:05:56,439
Speaker 4: this time because of concerns about nuclear weapon US from

1218
01:05:56,480 --> 01:06:00,520
Speaker 4: the United States now Americans tend to have the attitude

1219
01:06:00,600 --> 01:06:04,880
Speaker 4: or we would never strike them first. It's a common reaction.

1220
01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:08,880
Speaker 4: But I can assure you that they don't believe this

1221
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:12,480
Speaker 4: about us. And in fact, if you look at American

1222
01:06:13,680 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 4: nuclear weapons systems and the kinds of things we are

1223
01:06:16,560 --> 01:06:20,880
Speaker 4: doing even now, it creates the appearance. I want to

1224
01:06:20,880 --> 01:06:23,439
Speaker 4: be understanding. It creates an appearance because I don't think

1225
01:06:23,520 --> 01:06:27,439
Speaker 4: people realize, you know, what the meaning of what they're

1226
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 4: doing is. But too a well informed technical analyst. On

1227
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:36,000
Speaker 4: the Russian side, it looks like the United States is

1228
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:41,919
Speaker 4: preparing to fight and win a nuclear war with Russia. Now,

1229
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 4: of course, fighting and winning a nuclear war is ridiculous.

1230
01:06:47,680 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 4: The only way you win a nuclear war is by

1231
01:06:49,920 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 4: a definition. The definition is ridiculous. It's like, at the

1232
01:06:53,520 --> 01:06:56,880
Speaker 4: end of this exchange, where both of our countries and

1233
01:06:57,080 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 4: civilization is destroyed, we have margin of larger a slightly

1234
01:07:03,480 --> 01:07:07,800
Speaker 4: larger number of nuclear weapons left in our arsenal in

1235
01:07:07,920 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 4: the adversary. Well, that's totally ridiculous. That's like saying, well,

1236
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:16,000
Speaker 4: we'll have more fingernails on our body when our head

1237
01:07:16,080 --> 01:07:19,960
Speaker 4: is blown off. So fighting and winning a nuclear war

1238
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 4: is just absolutely this is not a matter of opinion,

1239
01:07:24,200 --> 01:07:33,120
Speaker 4: absolutely analytically ridiculous. But these kinds of doctrines have developed

1240
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:37,240
Speaker 4: in the United States and in Russia too, because there

1241
01:07:37,280 --> 01:07:42,800
Speaker 4: was a long time where people did not fully understand

1242
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:47,760
Speaker 4: how catastrophic large scale use of nuclear weapons would be.

1243
01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:52,360
Speaker 4: From my point of view, this is so obvious that

1244
01:07:53,600 --> 01:07:59,480
Speaker 4: you know, an infant would understand it. But unfortunately in

1245
01:07:59,720 --> 01:08:04,640
Speaker 4: in the world of military doctrine. And let me be clearer,

1246
01:08:04,640 --> 01:08:07,120
Speaker 4: I'm not talking about just the military people. I'm talking

1247
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:13,720
Speaker 4: about civilian political scientists in the Pentagon. They invent these

1248
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:18,559
Speaker 4: magical worlds where you can use nuclear weapons with very

1249
01:08:18,840 --> 01:08:22,639
Speaker 4: limited consequences, and the physics I want to understand, the

1250
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:26,559
Speaker 4: physics of this shows that that's not true. Forget about

1251
01:08:26,600 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 4: all the other complexities, like no one would know what

1252
01:08:30,640 --> 01:08:33,960
Speaker 4: was going on if a nuclear weapon was used. Let's

1253
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:37,679
Speaker 4: just reflect back on what happened when the World Trade

1254
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,280
Speaker 4: Center was in The President had no idea what was

1255
01:08:41,320 --> 01:08:45,760
Speaker 4: going on. The US government couldn't inform it because they

1256
01:08:46,360 --> 01:08:49,120
Speaker 4: had no idea of what was going on. Now, imagine

1257
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:54,559
Speaker 4: you have hundreds, if not thousands of events on a

1258
01:08:54,680 --> 01:08:59,040
Speaker 4: much larger scale simultaneously going on. Who is going to

1259
01:08:59,120 --> 01:09:04,160
Speaker 4: know what's happening, and of course all kinds of reactions

1260
01:09:04,479 --> 01:09:09,720
Speaker 4: and counter reactions could be happening automatically, and every simulation,

1261
01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:14,679
Speaker 4: every simulation that's worth looking at, indicates that you would

1262
01:09:14,720 --> 01:09:19,320
Speaker 4: have a rapid escalation to a general nuclear war, nuclear

1263
01:09:19,360 --> 01:09:22,360
Speaker 4: weapons start to get used. So we need to do everything,

1264
01:09:23,000 --> 01:09:27,440
Speaker 4: absolutely everything to keep our hands off the Russian systems

1265
01:09:28,200 --> 01:09:32,080
Speaker 4: because if they attack us by accident, it's going to

1266
01:09:32,080 --> 01:09:34,920
Speaker 4: be the end of everyone. So this is not like

1267
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:37,360
Speaker 4: poking the bear to see what he's going to do.

1268
01:09:37,600 --> 01:09:39,840
Speaker 4: This is really dangerous.

1269
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:43,479
Speaker 3: And so as you're watching all of this play out,

1270
01:09:43,520 --> 01:09:45,599
Speaker 3: and we can put the first element up on the screen,

1271
01:09:45,680 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 3: this is what happened in Crimea recently. This is a

1272
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 3: vo of obviously munitions hitting a beach in Crimea and

1273
01:09:56,360 --> 01:09:58,200
Speaker 3: control room you can go ahead and put E three

1274
01:09:58,280 --> 01:10:01,680
Speaker 3: up after that finishes playing. This is Russia blaming the

1275
01:10:01,800 --> 01:10:04,639
Speaker 3: United States for what they call the barbaric Ukrainian attack

1276
01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:09,000
Speaker 3: on Crimemea. Obviously it's been an escalation in recent days

1277
01:10:09,080 --> 01:10:12,320
Speaker 3: in this war. So, Ted, as you're watching this play out,

1278
01:10:12,840 --> 01:10:15,519
Speaker 3: how do you feel, based on all the context you

1279
01:10:15,640 --> 01:10:21,080
Speaker 3: just gave us, the administration is handling the threat of

1280
01:10:21,280 --> 01:10:25,439
Speaker 3: potential nuclear conflict. Are they. Do you feel good about

1281
01:10:25,479 --> 01:10:26,640
Speaker 3: the way the administration?

1282
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:32,840
Speaker 4: No, I'm I'm tremendously disturbed by the way the administration

1283
01:10:33,120 --> 01:10:36,759
Speaker 4: is handling this. It's as if the administration is poking

1284
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:42,200
Speaker 4: the Russians, trying to provoke them to do something very dangerous. Now,

1285
01:10:42,800 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 4: I don't want to sound like a Putent lover, but

1286
01:10:46,720 --> 01:10:51,480
Speaker 4: I have to say that looking at Putin very clear eye,

1287
01:10:51,960 --> 01:10:56,679
Speaker 4: not all this silly demonization of them, but just looking

1288
01:10:56,880 --> 01:11:01,559
Speaker 4: carefully at his history and what he does, what he

1289
01:11:01,720 --> 01:11:04,040
Speaker 4: says he's going to do, and how he follows up,

1290
01:11:04,720 --> 01:11:08,760
Speaker 4: it is very clear that mister Putin is an extremely stable,

1291
01:11:09,320 --> 01:11:15,800
Speaker 4: strategic thinker, and I do not believe he is going

1292
01:11:15,920 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 4: to do anything rash in responsibility. He's not going to

1293
01:11:20,280 --> 01:11:25,519
Speaker 4: be provoked. But it appears, it appears that the United

1294
01:11:25,520 --> 01:11:29,080
Speaker 4: States is trying to provoke him to do something silly.

1295
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:35,000
Speaker 4: It's not silly, extraordinarily dangerous and leaving. And I do

1296
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:36,840
Speaker 4: not think he will do this, but I think he

1297
01:11:36,880 --> 01:11:40,720
Speaker 4: will strike back, and it will cost American lives in

1298
01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:43,960
Speaker 4: the end. He's made it clear just the other day

1299
01:11:44,720 --> 01:11:48,599
Speaker 4: that he considers this a serious war crime. Incidentally, I

1300
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:52,000
Speaker 4: haven't seen, it looks to me more like an accident,

1301
01:11:52,760 --> 01:11:57,960
Speaker 4: but that's another discussion. But he considers it a war crime,

1302
01:11:58,040 --> 01:12:02,280
Speaker 4: and the Russians in general are absolutely outraged. We should

1303
01:12:02,439 --> 01:12:06,719
Speaker 4: also keep in mind that the Russians believe, right or wrong,

1304
01:12:07,600 --> 01:12:13,200
Speaker 4: that this horrifying Crocus City attack in Moscow, where all

1305
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:16,599
Speaker 4: these innocent people who are murdered by these people who

1306
01:12:16,600 --> 01:12:20,519
Speaker 4: appear to be associated with ISIS, and also according to

1307
01:12:20,560 --> 01:12:24,920
Speaker 4: the Russians, they believe that the Ukrainians were involved, in

1308
01:12:26,040 --> 01:12:31,160
Speaker 4: one way or another, supporting the ISIS attack. Given that

1309
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:35,240
Speaker 4: the Russians have this mindset, independent of whether or not

1310
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:38,599
Speaker 4: this is correct, they are going to be acting on it.

1311
01:12:39,439 --> 01:12:48,120
Speaker 4: And instead of doing things to reduce the belief among

1312
01:12:48,160 --> 01:12:52,280
Speaker 4: the Russians by either providing them with information intelligence or

1313
01:12:52,640 --> 01:12:57,559
Speaker 4: apologizing or making some statements that indicate we do not

1314
01:12:57,600 --> 01:13:03,599
Speaker 4: support this kind of thing, we have just stuck stuck

1315
01:13:03,640 --> 01:13:07,040
Speaker 4: our thumb in the eyes of the Russians at every opportunity,

1316
01:13:07,640 --> 01:13:11,040
Speaker 4: and this is not good diplomacy. We have this war,

1317
01:13:11,800 --> 01:13:14,640
Speaker 4: we want to win the war. Incidentally, we're not winning it.

1318
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:18,280
Speaker 4: We are losing it catastrophically, and the American press is

1319
01:13:18,280 --> 01:13:22,320
Speaker 4: not covering this right now, The Russians could end this

1320
01:13:22,439 --> 01:13:26,240
Speaker 4: war in weeks if they chose to take the casualties.

1321
01:13:27,000 --> 01:13:30,120
Speaker 4: Right now, what they are doing is minimizing their casualties

1322
01:13:30,560 --> 01:13:34,760
Speaker 4: while they are destroying Ukrainian forces at the rate of

1323
01:13:34,920 --> 01:13:40,559
Speaker 4: nearly two thousand casualties a day. That's like for five

1324
01:13:40,680 --> 01:13:44,640
Speaker 4: thousand casualties a month. That is the strategy of the

1325
01:13:44,720 --> 01:13:47,799
Speaker 4: Russians at this time. That's why we're not seeing great

1326
01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:54,640
Speaker 4: gains in territory because their strategy is destroyed the Ukrainian

1327
01:13:54,760 --> 01:13:59,240
Speaker 4: army and then when the army is sufficiently depleted, then

1328
01:13:59,400 --> 01:14:02,880
Speaker 4: sweep in and take over everything. They have three hundred

1329
01:14:02,960 --> 01:14:08,800
Speaker 4: thousand troops, fully armed, fully trained, and fully equipped, not

1330
01:14:08,960 --> 01:14:11,880
Speaker 4: involved in the fighting at this point that they can

1331
01:14:11,920 --> 01:14:15,519
Speaker 4: call in any time they choose. The problem they have,

1332
01:14:15,880 --> 01:14:17,880
Speaker 4: or if you want to call it a problem, is

1333
01:14:17,960 --> 01:14:22,000
Speaker 4: they don't want to take the extra casualties associated with

1334
01:14:22,080 --> 01:14:26,840
Speaker 4: a big offensive action against the capable army. So the

1335
01:14:26,960 --> 01:14:31,200
Speaker 4: first part of their strategy is to destroy the capability

1336
01:14:31,240 --> 01:14:36,400
Speaker 4: of the army they're facing and then unleash the backup forces,

1337
01:14:36,439 --> 01:14:40,479
Speaker 4: the reserve forces on the remaining army. This is a

1338
01:14:40,520 --> 01:14:44,559
Speaker 4: bad situation, and the American press has not reported it accurately.

1339
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:48,080
Speaker 4: I follow this every day. There's a lot of international

1340
01:14:48,120 --> 01:14:54,160
Speaker 4: coverage of this from organizations that every time you check

1341
01:14:55,360 --> 01:14:58,200
Speaker 4: what has had what they said, and what has actually

1342
01:14:58,280 --> 01:15:02,880
Speaker 4: been verified, they're accurate. So it's not it's clear to

1343
01:15:02,920 --> 01:15:06,599
Speaker 4: me that we have an accurate that I have. Others

1344
01:15:06,640 --> 01:15:10,280
Speaker 4: do too, have an accurate picture of the situation in Ukraine.

1345
01:15:10,439 --> 01:15:15,400
Speaker 4: We have lost already unless the Russians, you thought, I'm sorry,

1346
01:15:16,000 --> 01:15:19,559
Speaker 4: I was, unless the Russians. Well, the point the point here,

1347
01:15:19,880 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 4: the point here is that if we have already lost,

1348
01:15:24,920 --> 01:15:28,280
Speaker 4: why aren't we talking to the Russians to see what

1349
01:15:28,439 --> 01:15:33,519
Speaker 4: kind of cease fire we can get? Instead we talked

1350
01:15:33,560 --> 01:15:38,519
Speaker 4: about victory. There is no victory. I'm not saying this

1351
01:15:38,640 --> 01:15:42,360
Speaker 4: because I'm you know, some kind of defeat us. I'm

1352
01:15:42,400 --> 01:15:46,680
Speaker 4: saying this because the facts are clear, and all that

1353
01:15:46,840 --> 01:15:52,719
Speaker 4: is happening right now is the Russians are deepening their commitment.

1354
01:15:52,840 --> 01:15:57,200
Speaker 4: They're resolved to finish this thing in a way that

1355
01:15:57,400 --> 01:16:04,560
Speaker 4: meets there perceived security objectives. And their perceived security objective

1356
01:16:05,520 --> 01:16:09,360
Speaker 4: is to keep NATO out of Ukraine. And what they

1357
01:16:09,400 --> 01:16:12,320
Speaker 4: will do, what they are poised to do and can

1358
01:16:12,400 --> 01:16:15,280
Speaker 4: do at any time, except that they don't want to

1359
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:19,320
Speaker 4: take the casualties at the moment because they have a

1360
01:16:19,320 --> 01:16:23,160
Speaker 4: strategy that's working. What they will do is they will

1361
01:16:23,160 --> 01:16:28,680
Speaker 4: take all of Ukraine, of the Black Sea coast. They

1362
01:16:28,680 --> 01:16:35,679
Speaker 4: will probably take up to Tiev the land there. They

1363
01:16:35,720 --> 01:16:41,400
Speaker 4: may take the main body of what we call Western Ukraine,

1364
01:16:41,800 --> 01:16:44,599
Speaker 4: but I don't think they want to do that because

1365
01:16:44,920 --> 01:16:49,599
Speaker 4: the Western Ukrainians are deeply hostile to Russians. But what

1366
01:16:49,640 --> 01:16:54,000
Speaker 4: they can do is they can then strangle Ukraine because

1367
01:16:54,000 --> 01:16:57,879
Speaker 4: the Black Sea Coast is the only way that Ukraine

1368
01:16:57,960 --> 01:17:04,880
Speaker 4: can take these tremendous resources they have in brain and

1369
01:17:05,000 --> 01:17:08,839
Speaker 4: sell them to the world. So they can just stop

1370
01:17:09,200 --> 01:17:13,920
Speaker 4: Ukraine from being an economically viable enterprise. So I don't

1371
01:17:13,960 --> 01:17:16,880
Speaker 4: have any idea what they will do. But why do

1372
01:17:16,960 --> 01:17:20,000
Speaker 4: we want to play this game? And this is an

1373
01:17:20,040 --> 01:17:23,799
Speaker 4: American decision at this point, and it's the only decision

1374
01:17:23,960 --> 01:17:29,679
Speaker 4: we have all this fiction, which I believe is designed

1375
01:17:29,720 --> 01:17:36,639
Speaker 4: to prevent the average American from understanding that the war

1376
01:17:36,760 --> 01:17:40,760
Speaker 4: in Ukraine is lost and that this could have implications

1377
01:17:40,800 --> 01:17:44,080
Speaker 4: for the November election. That's what's going on here.

1378
01:17:44,920 --> 01:17:48,559
Speaker 1: If you're I was saying, if you're able to come

1379
01:17:48,600 --> 01:17:51,720
Speaker 1: to that assessment, you can imagine that the Ukrainian leadership,

1380
01:17:51,800 --> 01:17:55,519
Speaker 1: you know, understands the current military strategy of Russia and

1381
01:17:55,560 --> 01:17:59,320
Speaker 1: the current military situation they're in, which would lend you know,

1382
01:17:59,400 --> 01:18:02,360
Speaker 1: either to our and some type of impulse for you know,

1383
01:18:02,400 --> 01:18:05,439
Speaker 1: a negotiated solution to this or something desperate. And it

1384
01:18:05,520 --> 01:18:07,759
Speaker 1: seems like what we're seeing in the last several days

1385
01:18:07,880 --> 01:18:13,120
Speaker 1: and weeks is desperation. Yesterday there was another strike on

1386
01:18:13,280 --> 01:18:16,880
Speaker 1: a Russian kind of radar facility. My understanding from our

1387
01:18:16,920 --> 01:18:19,040
Speaker 1: conversation that you and I had yesterdays that that that

1388
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:21,719
Speaker 1: that is not an early that that was not necessarily and.

1389
01:18:21,880 --> 01:18:22,519
Speaker 4: That's a command.

1390
01:18:23,360 --> 01:18:25,760
Speaker 1: So what can you talk about these latest strikes and

1391
01:18:25,800 --> 01:18:26,719
Speaker 1: how those play in.

1392
01:18:27,439 --> 01:18:32,519
Speaker 4: Well, the strikes on the Russian UH, yesterday's strike was

1393
01:18:32,560 --> 01:18:37,760
Speaker 4: on a radar system that is is designed for communications

1394
01:18:37,800 --> 01:18:46,679
Speaker 4: too to two space systems that are extremely deep in space.

1395
01:18:47,479 --> 01:18:51,320
Speaker 4: It's it's on UH, it's in a southern latitude. It's

1396
01:18:51,360 --> 01:18:54,960
Speaker 4: so it's it's not associated with the early warning system

1397
01:18:55,120 --> 01:19:02,680
Speaker 4: very fortunately, but it's it's UH. It's simply a provocation,

1398
01:19:02,920 --> 01:19:07,599
Speaker 4: but not something that is going to raise the alert

1399
01:19:07,640 --> 01:19:13,080
Speaker 4: status of the Russian nuclear forces. The Russians have a

1400
01:19:13,080 --> 01:19:17,120
Speaker 4: big space program. They have probes they send to the Moon,

1401
01:19:17,320 --> 01:19:21,320
Speaker 4: to Mars and Venus, and these things are very very

1402
01:19:21,320 --> 01:19:24,720
Speaker 4: far away in space, and they have a gigantic and

1403
01:19:24,840 --> 01:19:30,360
Speaker 4: tennis that focus radio signals on those specific objects, so

1404
01:19:30,400 --> 01:19:34,200
Speaker 4: they could communicate signals to them and get information back.

1405
01:19:35,080 --> 01:19:38,559
Speaker 4: So that's what that particular facility was.

1406
01:19:39,040 --> 01:19:42,559
Speaker 1: Would there be any military value in taking out one

1407
01:19:42,600 --> 01:19:44,760
Speaker 1: of those deep space facilities.

1408
01:19:46,040 --> 01:19:53,719
Speaker 4: No, it would be just doing damage to their civil

1409
01:19:53,880 --> 01:19:56,760
Speaker 4: space program, their science space program. It would just be

1410
01:19:56,840 --> 01:20:00,560
Speaker 4: an irritant I mean in terms of there's no military

1411
01:20:00,800 --> 01:20:05,000
Speaker 4: utility to that attack. It's an attack that says we

1412
01:20:05,080 --> 01:20:10,160
Speaker 4: want to hurt you, just like unfortunately, our secretary of

1413
01:20:10,160 --> 01:20:16,879
Speaker 4: Defense said at one time, he said, well, we we

1414
01:20:17,080 --> 01:20:20,840
Speaker 4: want to do strategic damage to Russia. He actually said that.

1415
01:20:21,520 --> 01:20:25,599
Speaker 4: So when when someone in his position says something like that,

1416
01:20:26,240 --> 01:20:29,639
Speaker 4: how would you miss it if you were Russian? When

1417
01:20:29,880 --> 01:20:38,280
Speaker 4: when Anthony Blincoln tells Lavrov, Sergei Lavrov, that well, we

1418
01:20:38,360 --> 01:20:43,160
Speaker 4: reserve the right to put nuclear ballistic missiles in Ukraine,

1419
01:20:44,439 --> 01:20:48,240
Speaker 4: what does he think Lavrov is thinking? It would be

1420
01:20:48,360 --> 01:20:52,080
Speaker 4: like telling John F. Kennedy during the Cuba Cuban missile

1421
01:20:52,120 --> 01:20:55,559
Speaker 4: crisis that we deserve the right to put nuclear arm

1422
01:20:55,600 --> 01:21:00,880
Speaker 4: ballistic missiles in Cuba, so you Americans don't get tough luck.

1423
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:06,080
Speaker 4: I mean, I don't understand what this administration thinks it's doing.

1424
01:21:06,880 --> 01:21:09,280
Speaker 4: It's just I mean, it's incomprehensible to me.

1425
01:21:10,320 --> 01:21:12,960
Speaker 1: What about the election is interesting, I'm sorry. The point

1426
01:21:12,960 --> 01:21:17,040
Speaker 1: about the election is interesting that the administration may be thinking, well,

1427
01:21:17,040 --> 01:21:20,760
Speaker 1: this is off the front pages for now, so we

1428
01:21:20,800 --> 01:21:23,639
Speaker 1: can keep If we can keep it off the front

1429
01:21:23,680 --> 01:21:28,280
Speaker 1: pages through November, then maybe that reduces the risk to

1430
01:21:28,320 --> 01:21:29,640
Speaker 1: the electoral calculus.

1431
01:21:30,080 --> 01:21:33,160
Speaker 4: Oh, I think that's clearly what's going on. I don't,

1432
01:21:33,439 --> 01:21:35,920
Speaker 4: you know, I don't know, you know, but you know,

1433
01:21:35,920 --> 01:21:38,360
Speaker 4: if I look at the body language, so to speak,

1434
01:21:39,000 --> 01:21:44,320
Speaker 4: that's absolutely what's going on. They're in a panic because

1435
01:21:44,400 --> 01:21:47,760
Speaker 4: they understand, or should understand, they don't understand. God help

1436
01:21:47,840 --> 01:21:50,760
Speaker 4: us all. They are in a panic because they know

1437
01:21:51,640 --> 01:21:55,000
Speaker 4: that the whole situation in Ukraine could collapse at any time.

1438
01:21:56,040 --> 01:22:01,120
Speaker 4: Ukrainian units are refusing to follow orders in many cases now.

1439
01:22:01,160 --> 01:22:04,360
Speaker 4: We have reports of that even the other day in

1440
01:22:04,360 --> 01:22:09,439
Speaker 4: this Azov unit, which is a bunch of neo Nazis.

1441
01:22:09,600 --> 01:22:14,360
Speaker 4: These guys are ultra nationalists. Their followers of this guy

1442
01:22:15,120 --> 01:22:20,400
Speaker 4: step On Bandera. Vandera was the guy who fostered a

1443
01:22:20,439 --> 01:22:24,439
Speaker 4: political movement that resulted in the murder of one hundred

1444
01:22:24,439 --> 01:22:28,439
Speaker 4: and fifty thousand Polish people during the World War Two.

1445
01:22:28,680 --> 01:22:36,400
Speaker 4: And also the population of ss Gestapo units with Ukrainian volunteers.

1446
01:22:36,920 --> 01:22:39,280
Speaker 4: That's that's, that's the Ukraine.

1447
01:22:38,960 --> 01:22:42,400
Speaker 1: That they don't want, even that even that unit is

1448
01:22:43,280 --> 01:22:44,040
Speaker 1: facing trouble.

1449
01:22:44,640 --> 01:22:47,320
Speaker 4: It's it's what they did, is they there was a

1450
01:22:47,360 --> 01:22:50,640
Speaker 4: general in charge of the area where they were assigned,

1451
01:22:51,600 --> 01:22:54,800
Speaker 4: that was It's not clear what was happening, but I

1452
01:22:54,800 --> 01:22:58,760
Speaker 4: could take a very good, well informed guess they were

1453
01:22:59,040 --> 01:23:05,920
Speaker 4: probably order attacks on counter attacks on Russian units. Now,

1454
01:23:06,080 --> 01:23:14,800
Speaker 4: these counter attacks cause extraordinary levels of casualties among the Ukrainians,

1455
01:23:14,880 --> 01:23:19,400
Speaker 4: and the reason for this is that the Russians now

1456
01:23:19,479 --> 01:23:23,840
Speaker 4: have complete control of the air. So this is what

1457
01:23:23,920 --> 01:23:26,360
Speaker 4: the Americans have typically in a war. You know, we

1458
01:23:26,439 --> 01:23:28,400
Speaker 4: have complete control of the air, but the Russians have

1459
01:23:28,479 --> 01:23:33,840
Speaker 4: an ear and they also have ten to one artillery

1460
01:23:33,920 --> 01:23:38,200
Speaker 4: firing capability ten to one. So when you go out,

1461
01:23:38,479 --> 01:23:40,679
Speaker 4: when you get out of your foxhole and go running

1462
01:23:40,720 --> 01:23:46,599
Speaker 4: at the enemy, they slaughter you. And this is exactly

1463
01:23:46,640 --> 01:23:51,839
Speaker 4: the kind of combat strategy the Ukraine has been involved

1464
01:23:51,880 --> 01:23:55,759
Speaker 4: in for the last couple of years. A very high

1465
01:23:55,800 --> 01:24:00,000
Speaker 4: percentage of the losses that the Ukrainians have been suffering

1466
01:24:00,800 --> 01:24:05,679
Speaker 4: are due to these hopeless attacks. Rather than falling back

1467
01:24:05,760 --> 01:24:09,880
Speaker 4: and trying to defend positions and letting the Russians try

1468
01:24:09,880 --> 01:24:13,200
Speaker 4: to take those positions, they just run into the fire

1469
01:24:14,600 --> 01:24:20,400
Speaker 4: of the Russians. And it's very clear that Kluton does

1470
01:24:20,439 --> 01:24:26,439
Speaker 4: not want a large number of Russian casualties. It's very

1471
01:24:26,479 --> 01:24:29,439
Speaker 4: hard to know what's actually happening. So this is a guess.

1472
01:24:29,560 --> 01:24:32,200
Speaker 4: I want to be clear, this is a guess, But

1473
01:24:32,320 --> 01:24:37,280
Speaker 4: my guess is that the casualties being taken by the

1474
01:24:37,400 --> 01:24:41,680
Speaker 4: Ukrainians are five to one. So when you hear about

1475
01:24:42,479 --> 01:24:47,760
Speaker 4: fifteen hundred casualties being taken, which is sort of the

1476
01:24:47,840 --> 01:24:50,360
Speaker 4: average during the day, fifteen hundred to two thousand, right

1477
01:24:50,400 --> 01:24:53,920
Speaker 4: now you're talking about three hundred or three hundred and

1478
01:24:53,920 --> 01:24:57,840
Speaker 4: fifty or four hundred casualties on the part of the Russians.

1479
01:24:58,280 --> 01:25:02,880
Speaker 4: So this is a massacre. And you know, my own

1480
01:25:04,040 --> 01:25:10,880
Speaker 4: view of this is I'm terribly upset about it because

1481
01:25:11,600 --> 01:25:13,600
Speaker 4: I from my point of view, you can call me

1482
01:25:13,760 --> 01:25:17,160
Speaker 4: whatever you want, but I just see innocent people on

1483
01:25:17,240 --> 01:25:20,880
Speaker 4: both these Russian soldiers are no more guilty than these

1484
01:25:20,960 --> 01:25:25,519
Speaker 4: Ukrainian soldiers who have been forced into combat, and they're

1485
01:25:25,720 --> 01:25:30,040
Speaker 4: murdering each other for no reason. Because Ukraine is lost,

1486
01:25:31,040 --> 01:25:34,599
Speaker 4: and the political decision makers are sitting in the White House,

1487
01:25:34,640 --> 01:25:37,559
Speaker 4: and in this case they are the ones because they

1488
01:25:38,360 --> 01:25:44,080
Speaker 4: have these step on Budera extremists in charge in Ukraine.

1489
01:25:44,960 --> 01:25:49,200
Speaker 4: The White House is trying to sustain the appearance with

1490
01:25:49,280 --> 01:25:51,760
Speaker 4: the help unfortunately of the American press, which has not

1491
01:25:51,800 --> 01:25:54,920
Speaker 4: done a very good job, that this war is still

1492
01:25:55,479 --> 01:25:59,960
Speaker 4: open to a potential positive end for the United State.

1493
01:26:00,120 --> 01:26:01,519
Speaker 4: It's actually over.

1494
01:26:02,360 --> 01:26:07,760
Speaker 3: And I'm sorry, well I was Actually that's a big

1495
01:26:07,840 --> 01:26:11,280
Speaker 3: picture question. I'm so curious, as you've worked in the

1496
01:26:11,320 --> 01:26:15,280
Speaker 3: space for decades, just thinking about what's happening at the

1497
01:26:15,320 --> 01:26:20,120
Speaker 3: White House, as you just outlined it, how does this

1498
01:26:20,160 --> 01:26:25,320
Speaker 3: moment compare to previous moments of potential escalation to the

1499
01:26:25,360 --> 01:26:29,599
Speaker 3: point where the threat of nuclear conflict? You know, maybe

1500
01:26:29,600 --> 01:26:33,599
Speaker 3: even in recent memory. Obviously you mentioned earlier your history

1501
01:26:33,600 --> 01:26:37,160
Speaker 3: in the space in the nineteen eighties, but just maybe

1502
01:26:37,240 --> 01:26:39,439
Speaker 3: even over the course of the last ten twenty years,

1503
01:26:39,479 --> 01:26:42,080
Speaker 3: has there been a moment as precarious as this is.

1504
01:26:42,120 --> 01:26:45,160
Speaker 3: It always as precarious as this. How does this compare?

1505
01:26:45,800 --> 01:26:53,400
Speaker 6: Well, The problem is there could be a completely unforeseen

1506
01:26:53,720 --> 01:26:55,880
Speaker 6: series of accidents.

1507
01:26:56,360 --> 01:27:00,000
Speaker 4: Let me give you an example. We know this happened.

1508
01:27:00,600 --> 01:27:02,519
Speaker 4: We know this happened. In fact, I have studied in

1509
01:27:02,640 --> 01:27:06,680
Speaker 4: some great detail and I've written about it. We know

1510
01:27:06,880 --> 01:27:11,000
Speaker 4: that in nineteen ninety six, nineteen ninety six, it was

1511
01:27:11,080 --> 01:27:16,760
Speaker 4: yeltsin Clinton, and we were in this phase where both

1512
01:27:16,840 --> 01:27:19,920
Speaker 4: Russia and the United States were hoping to have a

1513
01:27:19,960 --> 01:27:23,400
Speaker 4: holy new relationship. We watched it, in my view, but

1514
01:27:23,439 --> 01:27:27,840
Speaker 4: that's another discussion. But people were not at each other

1515
01:27:27,880 --> 01:27:33,479
Speaker 4: at all, and it was there was a sounding rocket,

1516
01:27:33,520 --> 01:27:37,080
Speaker 4: a rocket that's launched vertically by scientists, you know, point

1517
01:27:37,120 --> 01:27:40,640
Speaker 4: beheading people like me who were just who were just

1518
01:27:40,680 --> 01:27:45,840
Speaker 4: trying to understand take measurements in the ionosphere, upper ionosphere.

1519
01:27:46,160 --> 01:27:49,080
Speaker 4: And they launched this rocket in a near vertical trajectory

1520
01:27:49,479 --> 01:27:52,960
Speaker 4: slightly tipped over away from Russia, but it went to

1521
01:27:53,000 --> 01:27:56,040
Speaker 4: a very high altitude eleven thousand kilometers and it was

1522
01:27:56,080 --> 01:27:59,680
Speaker 4: taking measurements of the ionosphere. Well, the problem with this

1523
01:27:59,800 --> 01:28:05,280
Speaker 4: rock was that its powered flight trajectory had the appearance

1524
01:28:05,320 --> 01:28:08,760
Speaker 4: of a trident ballistic missile of going through a near

1525
01:28:08,880 --> 01:28:15,600
Speaker 4: vertical trajectory. Now most people would say, why does that matter, Well, this,

1526
01:28:15,600 --> 01:28:18,080
Speaker 4: this could be the first part of a nuclear attack

1527
01:28:18,880 --> 01:28:22,200
Speaker 4: where you detonate a nuclear weapon at high altitude and

1528
01:28:22,240 --> 01:28:27,280
Speaker 4: it creates a sort of a radar absorbing layer in

1529
01:28:27,320 --> 01:28:30,000
Speaker 4: the atmosphere. So it's it's like you took a blanket,

1530
01:28:30,040 --> 01:28:32,240
Speaker 4: you threw it over the radar. Or if you have

1531
01:28:32,760 --> 01:28:36,840
Speaker 4: think of yourself as a as someone who's watching and

1532
01:28:36,880 --> 01:28:41,360
Speaker 4: I throw I throw a blanket over your head, so

1533
01:28:41,439 --> 01:28:45,000
Speaker 4: now you can't see anything. And this kind of precursor

1534
01:28:45,120 --> 01:28:50,600
Speaker 4: attack is exactly something you had both sides, Russia and

1535
01:28:50,640 --> 01:28:54,720
Speaker 4: the United States planned for in their own nuclear war

1536
01:28:55,000 --> 01:29:02,599
Speaker 4: retaliation findings, you know, planning. Now, in nineteen ninety six,

1537
01:29:03,520 --> 01:29:06,800
Speaker 4: you had a very In fact, I've spoken with the

1538
01:29:06,840 --> 01:29:09,920
Speaker 4: guy who was in charge. His name is Victor Yessen.

1539
01:29:10,400 --> 01:29:12,759
Speaker 4: He was the guy in charge of the Strategic Rocket

1540
01:29:12,760 --> 01:29:16,800
Speaker 4: Forces at the time, and he's a very sober, extremely

1541
01:29:17,160 --> 01:29:21,880
Speaker 4: well educated, competent man, and he sat there watching this thing,

1542
01:29:22,200 --> 01:29:26,200
Speaker 4: this experiment, which he had no idea whether or not

1543
01:29:26,280 --> 01:29:30,680
Speaker 4: it was a nuclear weapon, rise to its maximum altitude.

1544
01:29:31,280 --> 01:29:34,599
Speaker 4: In the moment it started to fall back to the earth,

1545
01:29:34,800 --> 01:29:39,240
Speaker 4: he called off the alert because he knew that this

1546
01:29:39,479 --> 01:29:42,000
Speaker 4: whatever it was, he didn't know what it was, but

1547
01:29:42,080 --> 01:29:46,120
Speaker 4: he knew it was not a precursor of nuclear attack. Now,

1548
01:29:46,200 --> 01:29:48,920
Speaker 4: if the time was, if we had big fighting going

1549
01:29:48,960 --> 01:29:52,559
Speaker 4: on in the Ukraine, in Ukraine at the time, in

1550
01:29:52,600 --> 01:29:57,120
Speaker 4: the United States in Russia, maybe we're using tactical nuclear

1551
01:29:57,160 --> 01:30:01,479
Speaker 4: weapons against each other or very so is very very

1552
01:30:01,520 --> 01:30:05,839
Speaker 4: serious escalation. NATO troops were injected, you know, the French

1553
01:30:05,880 --> 01:30:12,839
Speaker 4: troops that Ma Kron wants to put into into Ukraine.

1554
01:30:13,080 --> 01:30:15,639
Speaker 4: They're being slaughtered by the Russians, which of course will

1555
01:30:15,640 --> 01:30:20,560
Speaker 4: happen if those troops are there, and you know, the

1556
01:30:20,640 --> 01:30:24,559
Speaker 4: Russians could think they were under attack. Now, I think

1557
01:30:24,560 --> 01:30:27,760
Speaker 4: they are very cautious. So I don't want to overstate this,

1558
01:30:29,000 --> 01:30:31,479
Speaker 4: you know, I mean, the Russians are very cautious, They're

1559
01:30:31,600 --> 01:30:35,720
Speaker 4: very competent, they're very professional. They understand that if they

1560
01:30:35,760 --> 01:30:38,240
Speaker 4: accidentally attack the United States, it's the end of their

1561
01:30:38,280 --> 01:30:41,559
Speaker 4: country too. So I don't want to overstate this. But

1562
01:30:42,200 --> 01:30:45,280
Speaker 4: the question I would ask you to consider is do

1563
01:30:45,360 --> 01:30:49,080
Speaker 4: you think they're them having this state of mind at

1564
01:30:49,080 --> 01:30:52,320
Speaker 4: that time without a complete knowledge of what's going on,

1565
01:30:52,880 --> 01:30:55,479
Speaker 4: is a good thing for the United states. That's the

1566
01:30:56,040 --> 01:30:57,920
Speaker 4: So I don't want to be one of these people. O.

1567
01:30:58,000 --> 01:31:01,320
Speaker 4: The sky is falling, the sky has fallen. But when

1568
01:31:01,320 --> 01:31:06,800
Speaker 4: the consequences are literally the end of civilization and you know,

1569
01:31:06,840 --> 01:31:12,160
Speaker 4: potentially the end of human existence that is less clear,

1570
01:31:12,280 --> 01:31:17,200
Speaker 4: but certainly the end of civilization as we know it,

1571
01:31:18,120 --> 01:31:22,360
Speaker 4: why would you want to push push the buttons on this.

1572
01:31:22,479 --> 01:31:27,839
Speaker 4: I don't understand. I'm baffled. And part of the reason

1573
01:31:28,120 --> 01:31:31,360
Speaker 4: may be that the people in the White House are

1574
01:31:31,520 --> 01:31:35,240
Speaker 4: not informed. And that's been my experience. Incidentally, I've talked

1575
01:31:35,280 --> 01:31:39,479
Speaker 4: to people over decades from time to time in White

1576
01:31:39,479 --> 01:31:43,280
Speaker 4: House positions and they don't have a clue there. Because

1577
01:31:43,320 --> 01:31:47,479
Speaker 4: these people are political and I'm not saying this to

1578
01:31:47,560 --> 01:31:51,640
Speaker 4: attack them. They're concerned is how do I get reelected

1579
01:31:51,680 --> 01:31:54,680
Speaker 4: and how do I how do I keep the American

1580
01:31:54,720 --> 01:31:58,639
Speaker 4: public from knowing my dark secret, you know, my screw

1581
01:31:58,720 --> 01:32:03,080
Speaker 4: up on something. And that's why you see all this

1582
01:32:04,280 --> 01:32:08,280
Speaker 4: Kate mongering for Putin. You know, Putin is our adversary.

1583
01:32:08,360 --> 01:32:13,680
Speaker 4: There's no question that he doesn't mean good things for us.

1584
01:32:14,080 --> 01:32:17,519
Speaker 4: But he's not Adolphe. I mean, this is ridiculous. He's

1585
01:32:17,560 --> 01:32:20,880
Speaker 4: a very capable guy who is Jiu jitsing us in

1586
01:32:20,960 --> 01:32:23,920
Speaker 4: so many circumstances. These guys don't want the American people

1587
01:32:23,960 --> 01:32:28,080
Speaker 4: to figure out how clever he has been and how

1588
01:32:28,120 --> 01:32:30,280
Speaker 4: everything we have done to try to screw up the

1589
01:32:30,360 --> 01:32:33,960
Speaker 4: Russians has backfired on us because the Russians have been

1590
01:32:34,320 --> 01:32:37,280
Speaker 4: clever and responding. So what do you do. You don't

1591
01:32:37,280 --> 01:32:39,080
Speaker 4: want to You can't explain this. You don't want to

1592
01:32:39,080 --> 01:32:42,560
Speaker 4: explain this to your electorate. You're trying to get reelected.

1593
01:32:42,920 --> 01:32:45,040
Speaker 4: So he say, oh, it's this guy Putin. He's so terrible,

1594
01:32:45,200 --> 01:32:48,000
Speaker 4: he's so such a Now I'm not trying to say

1595
01:32:48,040 --> 01:32:50,320
Speaker 4: that I would want to run against put In an

1596
01:32:50,360 --> 01:32:55,080
Speaker 4: election in Russia. He killed me. But but you know,

1597
01:32:57,320 --> 01:33:01,960
Speaker 4: Muhammed Ben Salmon is not our oneful somebuddy either. You know,

1598
01:33:02,000 --> 01:33:06,040
Speaker 4: these countries have their own political systems, and when you

1599
01:33:07,160 --> 01:33:11,200
Speaker 4: when you recognize what's going on in those systems, doesn't

1600
01:33:11,240 --> 01:33:13,920
Speaker 4: mean you approve of them, and it doesn't mean you

1601
01:33:13,960 --> 01:33:17,960
Speaker 4: think it's good. It's just understanding the facts of the world.

1602
01:33:18,400 --> 01:33:23,799
Speaker 4: And this guy, this guy Putin, is unbelievably thoughtful, deep thinking,

1603
01:33:23,960 --> 01:33:27,400
Speaker 4: and strategic in his thinking. And he just said just

1604
01:33:27,520 --> 01:33:31,280
Speaker 4: yesterday that he's going to find a way to pay

1605
01:33:31,360 --> 01:33:35,040
Speaker 4: us back for what he sees as this attack. And

1606
01:33:35,120 --> 01:33:39,320
Speaker 4: let me tell you, he doesn't bluff. He doesn't bluff.

1607
01:33:39,880 --> 01:33:43,519
Speaker 4: I have watched him with extreme care, and when he

1608
01:33:43,640 --> 01:33:46,120
Speaker 4: says something, I don't say, Oh, he's a monster, what

1609
01:33:46,200 --> 01:33:49,160
Speaker 4: are you know? Blah blah. You know, I take it

1610
01:33:49,240 --> 01:33:52,479
Speaker 4: at its word. And I asked myself, what does this

1611
01:33:52,600 --> 01:33:59,280
Speaker 4: guy mean? And we have had a decades of people

1612
01:33:59,320 --> 01:34:04,080
Speaker 4: who claim to be experts on Russia feeding us nonsense

1613
01:34:04,200 --> 01:34:08,479
Speaker 4: about what a monster this man is. He's not a

1614
01:34:08,600 --> 01:34:12,639
Speaker 4: nice person. You wouldn't want him as your close personal friend.

1615
01:34:13,560 --> 01:34:17,280
Speaker 4: But that is different from portraying him as this monster

1616
01:34:17,360 --> 01:34:21,080
Speaker 4: that goes around murdering people. Whenever he has the notion,

1617
01:34:21,280 --> 01:34:24,080
Speaker 4: it's not the case at all. You'll you just have

1618
01:34:24,120 --> 01:34:25,880
Speaker 4: to look at the facts. And so we have these

1619
01:34:25,880 --> 01:34:29,160
Speaker 4: people who in one way or another are getting funding

1620
01:34:29,200 --> 01:34:31,439
Speaker 4: from the US government to a field an alliance to

1621
01:34:31,479 --> 01:34:35,720
Speaker 4: the US government, who have painted this portrait that is

1622
01:34:36,760 --> 01:34:42,559
Speaker 4: totally bizarre. I mean, why don't we do that with

1623
01:34:43,080 --> 01:34:46,000
Speaker 4: other you know, you know, he's not hitler.

1624
01:34:46,840 --> 01:34:53,960
Speaker 1: I mean, underestimating your adversary usually doesn't usually doesn't end well.

1625
01:34:54,760 --> 01:34:58,519
Speaker 4: Well, it's not simply underestimating it's portraying your adversary in

1626
01:34:58,600 --> 01:35:02,200
Speaker 4: a way that hides your bad decisions that are backfired

1627
01:35:02,200 --> 01:35:06,080
Speaker 4: on you. So it's what I consider it a politically

1628
01:35:06,280 --> 01:35:07,800
Speaker 4: motivated strategy.

1629
01:35:09,320 --> 01:35:12,479
Speaker 1: Well, Theodore Postal, thank you so much for joining us,

1630
01:35:12,560 --> 01:35:13,200
Speaker 1: you know very much.

1631
01:35:13,280 --> 01:35:17,040
Speaker 4: Pretty it's been a pleasure. I hope it's been helpful.

1632
01:35:17,360 --> 01:35:19,639
Speaker 1: Very helpful, very helpful. Indeed, very much appreciated.

1633
01:35:20,040 --> 01:35:20,920
Speaker 4: Thank you very much.

1634
01:35:21,439 --> 01:35:24,920
Speaker 1: That was Ted Postal rather sobering a conversation a little

1635
01:35:24,920 --> 01:35:29,439
Speaker 1: bit when when he joined us, he looked behind and said,

1636
01:35:29,479 --> 01:35:30,840
Speaker 1: I see Washington is still there.

1637
01:35:31,320 --> 01:35:32,640
Speaker 3: But then we had to say, well, it's on a

1638
01:35:32,640 --> 01:35:33,240
Speaker 3: loop episode.

1639
01:35:33,479 --> 01:35:36,160
Speaker 1: But the fact that we're alive suggest that Washington is

1640
01:35:36,160 --> 01:35:37,439
Speaker 1: still here. We are in Washington.

1641
01:35:37,520 --> 01:35:41,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're not in like a bunker, although his bunker

1642
01:35:41,160 --> 01:35:42,439
Speaker 3: temperature sometimes yes.

1643
01:35:42,479 --> 01:35:49,479
Speaker 1: Indeed. Anyway, we're having a Ukrainian conversation debate on our

1644
01:35:49,560 --> 01:35:53,720
Speaker 1: Friday show, so you know, come back Thursday evening for

1645
01:35:53,760 --> 01:35:56,960
Speaker 1: that if you are a Breaking Point subscriber breakingpoints dot

1646
01:35:57,000 --> 01:36:00,240
Speaker 1: com to get the to get that early. Otherwise, as

1647
01:36:00,280 --> 01:36:02,559
Speaker 1: you can watch the full show on Friday, We're going

1648
01:36:02,640 --> 01:36:07,960
Speaker 1: to have another streamer, vash talking to a libertarian state

1649
01:36:08,240 --> 01:36:09,960
Speaker 1: median with the comedian.

1650
01:36:10,240 --> 01:36:11,439
Speaker 3: What's h comedian?

1651
01:36:11,600 --> 01:36:16,000
Speaker 1: So they're going to be teasing out their own takes

1652
01:36:16,040 --> 01:36:18,040
Speaker 1: on the Ukrainian conflict, and.

1653
01:36:18,000 --> 01:36:22,400
Speaker 3: We're tableted today a little inside baseball. So this is

1654
01:36:22,400 --> 01:36:24,639
Speaker 3: one of two debates that Ryan and I are moderating.

1655
01:36:26,120 --> 01:36:27,559
Speaker 3: Somehow become debate moderator.

1656
01:36:27,640 --> 01:36:30,080
Speaker 1: We have. Life comes at you.

1657
01:36:30,040 --> 01:36:33,360
Speaker 3: Fast, sure does, so stay tuned for the breaking points

1658
01:36:33,360 --> 01:36:36,400
Speaker 3: debate coverage that you know CNN won't let us carry

1659
01:36:36,439 --> 01:36:38,759
Speaker 3: the stream, but we will be here carrying the stream

1660
01:36:38,800 --> 01:36:42,400
Speaker 3: with Crystal and Sager tomorrow eight pm. Whether or not

1661
01:36:42,479 --> 01:36:46,240
Speaker 3: CNN lets us pick up on the debate stream eight pm.

1662
01:36:46,479 --> 01:36:50,479
Speaker 3: Right here seven pm tonight through Zero Hedge Debate. But

1663
01:36:50,600 --> 01:36:52,519
Speaker 3: that does it for us for this morning.

1664
01:36:52,560 --> 01:36:55,240
Speaker 1: At least. We'll be back pretty soon see you tonight.

1665
01:36:55,439 --> 01:36:55,800
Speaker 1: So yeah,