WEBVTT -  Former US Ambassador to Israel Dan Kurtzer Talks European Union Talks With Iran

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Dan Kurtzer, now with Princeton University, where he's Professor of

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<v Speaker 2>Middle East Policy, is former US Ambassador to Israel and

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<v Speaker 2>has been in the room for talks like the ones

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<v Speaker 2>we're describing today in Geneva. Mister ambassador, welcome back to

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's great to have you. Do

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<v Speaker 2>you share the optimism of the UK Foreign Minister when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to these talks today in Geneva.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, there's no basis to be optimistic unless they've heard

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<v Speaker 1>something from the Iranians that they'll communicate to the President.

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<v Speaker 1>What they need to hear, and what the President would

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<v Speaker 1>need to hear is that the Iranians are ready to

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<v Speaker 1>come back to the talks and understand that they will

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<v Speaker 1>have to give up Enrichmond on the Iranian soil. If

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<v Speaker 1>the Europeans can produce that kind of a commitment, then

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<v Speaker 1>the President can talk to Nitanyahu about holding up a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit and giving diplomacy a chance. But otherwise, aspirations

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<v Speaker 1>are nice, but we're really far down the road beyond

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<v Speaker 1>simply hope.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you hear the phrase unfettered access and it brings

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<v Speaker 2>you back to the nuclear deal with Iran in two

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<v Speaker 2>years long before that, and even to Iraq. You remember

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<v Speaker 2>how this goes with weapons inspectors, and it's typically not

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<v Speaker 2>to meet expectations. With Iran, They've turned back on a

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<v Speaker 2>number of promises before. Why would this time be any different?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, the reality is that in twenty fifteen, with the

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<v Speaker 1>Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for three years, the Iranians

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<v Speaker 1>adhered to that agreement and each time a small violation

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<v Speaker 1>was uncovered, it was fixed right away. So there is

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<v Speaker 1>at least a small track record of Iranian compliance, which

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<v Speaker 1>of course ended when the United States pulled out of

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<v Speaker 1>the Now I think that we would need a much

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<v Speaker 1>stronger JCPOA two point zero. We'd have to have no

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<v Speaker 1>end date. You remember the JCPOA was supposed to come

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<v Speaker 1>to an end within twelve to fifteen years, So no

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<v Speaker 1>end date, better assurances with regard to the reconstitution of

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<v Speaker 1>the program. But you know, a tougher agreement could lead

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<v Speaker 1>to Iranian compliance and end of the war, and therefore

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<v Speaker 1>an end of the Iranian nuclear program.

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<v Speaker 2>Is Iran more or less likely to agree to stop

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<v Speaker 2>enriching uranium as it is being bombed by Israel. Is

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<v Speaker 2>this maximum pressure campaign the type of thing that works

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<v Speaker 2>in this scenario or moves Iran further away from an

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<v Speaker 2>agreement like that.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, it's a great question and the answer is unknown.

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<v Speaker 1>Before the Israeli bombing, Iran was stuck on the idea

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<v Speaker 1>that it would not give up the right to enrich uranium.

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<v Speaker 1>So we don't know whether the debilitation of Iran's military capabilities,

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<v Speaker 1>its missile program, and its nuclear program will now make

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<v Speaker 1>a convincing argument otherwise, I think much of this is

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<v Speaker 1>going to depend on what's happening within the opaque system

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<v Speaker 1>in Tehran. The ietola still is calling the shots, but

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<v Speaker 1>there are quite a few different factions playing in this,

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<v Speaker 1>including more extreme elements in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and

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<v Speaker 1>the so called Besiege who have argued for years that

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<v Speaker 1>Iran should simply develop a nuclear weapon, so they will

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<v Speaker 1>be pressing for that. Others might say, look, we invested

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, we lost a lot, we have no allies

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<v Speaker 1>in the region, and it's time to give it up.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been some interesting reporting on US intelligence estimates when

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<v Speaker 2>it comes to Uran's ability to end motivation to make

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<v Speaker 2>a nuclear weapon. We are frequently not on the same

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<v Speaker 2>page as Israel when it comes to this, ambassador, and

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<v Speaker 2>I wonder your thoughts about the assessment we're reading about

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<v Speaker 2>today that Iran has yet to decide whether to make

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<v Speaker 2>a nuclear bomb, even though it does in fact have

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<v Speaker 2>a large stockpile of enriched uranium. The idea is that

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<v Speaker 2>it would be more likely to shift toward producing a

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<v Speaker 2>bomb if the US decides to get involved offensively with Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you believe that to be true?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, our intelligence community has been consistent since two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and three in saying that Iran is not trying to

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<v Speaker 1>weaponize the capability of using a nuclear weapon, and that

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<v Speaker 1>was something that Tulsey Gobard back in I guess was

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<v Speaker 1>March April testified to Congress, and it's something that the

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<v Speaker 1>President simply said he didn't agree with, even though it's

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<v Speaker 1>his intelligence of people telling him that. So you have

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<v Speaker 1>to just distinguished between the weaponization program, which appears not

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<v Speaker 1>to be in place, as opposed to the preparatory steps

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<v Speaker 1>that Iran has been taking and accelerating since twenty eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>since we pulled out of the JCPOA and they started

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<v Speaker 1>enriching at a much higher level up to sixty percent

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<v Speaker 1>and there's some indication that at least at one point

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<v Speaker 1>they went beyond sixty percent, which would bring them very

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<v Speaker 1>very close to being a threshold nuclear state with a

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<v Speaker 1>breakout time that's essentially days, not even weeks. So they're prepared,

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<v Speaker 1>I think, to move expeditiously. Their capabilities are much less

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<v Speaker 1>today as a result of Israeli bombing. Question is how

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<v Speaker 1>do you make sure that what Israel accomplished militarily is

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<v Speaker 1>sustainable and that Iran cannot reconstitute his program.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Ambassador, what do you expect to take place then

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<v Speaker 2>in the next two weeks, and if the US managed

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<v Speaker 2>to strike a deal with Iran, what Israel trusted?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, what I expect to take place is a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of back channel conversations. We know that the President's envoys,

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<v Speaker 1>Stephen Witkoff, has tried to reach out to the Iranians.

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<v Speaker 1>We now have this European meeting. There's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of chatter behind the scenes, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>the President will factor that into the equation. Are the

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<v Speaker 1>Iranians really ready as a result of having been bruised,

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<v Speaker 1>Are they really ready to come to the table and

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<v Speaker 1>give up enrichment which would make a jcpoa two point

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<v Speaker 1>zero possible. Whether Nittanyahu would be satisfied with that. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>as far as the Israelis are concerned, unless FORDAW has

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<v Speaker 1>taken out the heavily fortified underground facility, they think their

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<v Speaker 1>job won't be done. As Nick suggested, there may be

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<v Speaker 1>other ways of doing it. I'd simply be too bombing.

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<v Speaker 1>You knock out the electricity, the entrances, the air supply,

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<v Speaker 1>and you keep at it for a while. So you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see I think in these two weeks back

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<v Speaker 1>channel contacts, sustained Israeli attacks, including against FORDAO, and within

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<v Speaker 1>that two week period, whether the President can put this

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<v Speaker 1>all together in a diplomatic package is literally anyone's guess

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<v Speaker 1>at this point.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, I wouldn't want to be a worker at Foteaux

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<v Speaker 2>right now, Ambassador, we just ran a headline across the terminal.

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<v Speaker 2>The Iran European nuclear talks in Geneva have come to

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<v Speaker 2>an end. We are standing by for a statement as

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<v Speaker 2>we wait for a readout and in our final moment

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<v Speaker 2>here together, Ambassador, Where's Russia and China on this or

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<v Speaker 2>are we learning right now that they have no influence

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<v Speaker 2>on what's happening.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, they certainly have little influence. The Chinese are heavily

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<v Speaker 1>dependent on Iran's oil and gas, and therefore they're concerned

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<v Speaker 1>whether this war escalates and whether attacks against the energy

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure take place, or whether Iran in response blocks the

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<v Speaker 1>Straits of Hormuz. So the Chinese are nervous. The Russians

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<v Speaker 1>are incapacitated because of their own war, but nonetheless it

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<v Speaker 1>would behoove the President to think about including them in

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<v Speaker 1>any multilateral diplomatic approach. After all, it was the Russians,

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese and the three Europeans who joined us in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen to make the jcpoa work at that time. So

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<v Speaker 1>they're not going to be major players in this, but

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<v Speaker 1>they'll be important players if Iran sees that not just

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<v Speaker 1>the Europeans and the Americans, but also their friends in

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<v Speaker 1>Moscow and Beijing are telling them it's time to call quit.

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<v Speaker 2>Great to have you with us, Sir Dan Kurtzer, former

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<v Speaker 2>US Ambassador to Israel, now princeton with us here on

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<v Speaker 2>of power. This is bluebone