1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,640 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Alicia Levine, 11 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 2: a good friend of the show, brings prodigious quantitative abilities 12 00:00:52,120 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 2: at BNY Wealth, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities. Okay, 13 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: let's go Matthew right now. Stochastics is really ugly. When 14 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 2: you got the sharp turn, it's really hard to manage 15 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 2: a turn, to do the turn, execute the turn. Where 16 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 2: are we on the turn? Are we going into it? 17 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,479 Speaker 2: Are we at the apex or are we coming out 18 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 2: of it? Or they have some stability of vector trajectory 19 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 2: to a lower rate. 20 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:23,280 Speaker 3: So we're in the middle of it. Because the turn 21 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:25,720 Speaker 3: really came in December. That was the turn. 22 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: Okay, right, last December. 23 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 1: Last December, it's eight months ago. 24 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: What took so long? 25 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: No, well, the market's up nineteen percent, you're todate. So 26 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:38,400 Speaker 3: the turn happened in December when the FED pivoted from 27 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 3: a you know, high high for longer to we're cutting. 28 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:44,119 Speaker 1: So we're here. 29 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 3: The interesting issue for today is that we're disappointing somebody. 30 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: We'reinting. 31 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 3: We're either disappointing the twenty five folks or the fifty 32 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 3: folks today because the market pricing is right in the middle. 33 00:01:56,440 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 2: Take it from your equity space over to the BTMM screen. 34 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:04,040 Speaker 2: How is this going to shift the gazillions of dollars 35 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 2: B and why? Observes in short term paper money market 36 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: funds all the fancy Ira Jersey inward stuff. 37 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 3: So the interesting thing is if if the Fed's at 38 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 3: twenty five, then the hiking cycle could go longer, but 39 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 3: it's shallower. I mean, the cutting cycle is longer, but shallower. 40 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 3: So in other words, you get seventy five this year 41 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 3: and not one hundred this year. But the paper is 42 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:34,360 Speaker 3: already moving right because because short rates are now lower 43 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 3: and they've been lower all year which is why when 44 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,080 Speaker 3: you ask where are we in the cycle, we are 45 00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 3: in the middle of it, because it's the pivot is 46 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 3: what caused all this to happen. We got delayed by 47 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 3: hotter inflation prints earlier in the year, but essentially the 48 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 3: path of the FED laid out in December is happening 49 00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 3: now starting in the summer. 50 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 4: All right, So given that backdrop, we're going to have 51 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 4: the FED start cutting today. It'll be on some cadence, 52 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 4: some pathway over the next three to four quarters. What 53 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 4: do we do here? I mean, I've already got the 54 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,000 Speaker 4: two years. Move from five percent just a cup of 55 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 4: coffee goes Tom Keane would say, to networth three point 56 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:09,919 Speaker 4: six percent. So where do we go from here? 57 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: Right? 58 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 3: So, look, I think that the two hundred and forty 59 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:17,360 Speaker 3: basis points that's priced into the bond market right now 60 00:03:17,760 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 3: through the end of twenty twenty five, that number of cuts, 61 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 3: we think that's a lot because actually we think the 62 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:26,519 Speaker 3: US economy is in pretty good shape. So there could 63 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 3: be some sell off in the bond market because when 64 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 3: there is a recognition that is just too many cuts, 65 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 3: I mean ten cuts. Ten cuts is a lot for 66 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 3: where the economy is right now. 67 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: But overall, overall. 68 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 3: If you look back at history, when the Fed starts cutting, 69 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 3: you want to be in the bond market. Right, So 70 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 3: you may have volatility around it, and those days could 71 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 3: be great days to enter into a position or to 72 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: add to a position, But overall, when the Fed starts cutting, 73 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 3: you're with the Fed here, and you want to be 74 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 3: in the bond market. 75 00:03:57,800 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: You want to be out of cash. 76 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 2: You've got a Matthew down Field versus a lot of 77 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 2: shops where they've got huge laws of security analysts tell 78 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 2: them what to do. Do you just assume corporations will 79 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,880 Speaker 2: adapt whatever they're handed by Powell and that we will 80 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 2: generate high single digit, double digit earnings growth. That seems 81 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 2: to be the optimist conviction right now. Do you share that? 82 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,359 Speaker 3: We do share that, because ultimately you'd rather have a 83 00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 3: strong US economy feeding into earnings driving the stock market. 84 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 2: I got a five t percent nominal GDP. I'm talking. 85 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 2: This is like anti American Alan Meltzer, Carnegie Mellon a rollover. 86 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:41,119 Speaker 2: It is Greg We're talking fifty pep cut a five 87 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 2: percent nominal GDP. 88 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: Discuss discuss. 89 00:04:44,680 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 3: Okay, so real Fed funds rate is over two percent now, 90 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 3: so they have to start cutting. So we think they 91 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:55,919 Speaker 3: could go fifty today, you know, in a world where 92 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,200 Speaker 3: they were simply just looking at where the real five 93 00:04:58,240 --> 00:04:58,840 Speaker 3: funds rate is. 94 00:04:58,880 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: The problem is there's the whole communication piece, and. 95 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: The FED went dark, you know, at the end of 96 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 3: September fifth, when that labor report came in that morning, 97 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 3: not enough time to digest it. And so they're likely 98 00:05:11,480 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 3: to do twenty five simply because the market's two off sides, like, 99 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:16,720 Speaker 3: there's no conviction in the market and therefore the FED 100 00:05:16,760 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 3: can't be convicted on it either, although the path is convicted, 101 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:24,640 Speaker 3: meaning they're cutting right and the cutting path is pretty clear. 102 00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,280 Speaker 2: So this is like explaining to your kids that a 103 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 2: seat doesn't get it the sea doesn't get it done exactly. 104 00:05:30,200 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 4: So on the equity side of leshia, where do you 105 00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 4: want to have exposure here? If this Fed's going to 106 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 4: be cutting and maybe cutting aggressively, where do you want 107 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:36,920 Speaker 4: to be here? 108 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:38,280 Speaker 1: Look, I mean you see it already. 109 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,080 Speaker 3: I mean reads have been a standout, financials have been 110 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 3: a standout. So the conversation we have as well. Historically, 111 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 3: when the yield curve normalizes and the FED starts cutting, 112 00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 3: equities sell off well, they do that when the FED 113 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 3: starts cutting into the recession right or into areas of 114 00:05:56,640 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 3: true economic distress or financial distress, and then you get 115 00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 3: the recession. Yes, equity sell off even as the Fed 116 00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:05,160 Speaker 3: is cutting. But if you go back to eighty four 117 00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 3: or ninety five, when the FED cut into a soft landing, 118 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 3: you saw financials rallying and stock market rallied. We think 119 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 3: we're in that period. We think we're in that period. 120 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:17,119 Speaker 3: Now we've already had a nineteen percent rally in the market, 121 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 3: so there's plenty of time here for consolidation, a little 122 00:06:19,760 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 3: excitement around the election consolidation. This is typically what happens 123 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 3: seasonally anyway this time of year, throughout the election, and 124 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 3: you can go through October, but ultimately the fundamentals are 125 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 3: no recession, no earnings degradation. 126 00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: Market goes up. 127 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:37,840 Speaker 4: Are you concerned about this election or do you just 128 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,359 Speaker 4: kind of put it aside and say, this market's bigger 129 00:06:40,360 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 4: than that. 130 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: So we tell our clients to put it aside, put. 131 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 3: Aside, because you know, in the end, whatever volatility there 132 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 3: is around it is usually short lived because there is 133 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 3: an answer. I think that there's uncertainty going into January 134 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:57,159 Speaker 3: let's go back to the two thousand stock market sold 135 00:06:57,200 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 3: off twelve percent. 136 00:06:58,320 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: Okay, so and the FED had to cut twice. 137 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 3: So could that happen maybe, But ultimately we put it 138 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 3: in a box and we look at the long term, 139 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,479 Speaker 3: and the long term is you know, America is the 140 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 3: place of innovation and new you know, capital Creek creation 141 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,000 Speaker 3: and new companies. So this is where our client's money is, 142 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 3: and that's where we want to be invested. 143 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 1: So I don't worry. I don't I'm not a trader. 144 00:07:19,200 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 3: Like we don't worry about what's happening in the next 145 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 3: three weeks. We worry about creating wealth, preserving wealth, and 146 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 3: w what would you be great? 147 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 2: So we're the shadows of the market right now. If 148 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 2: you take the cross moments and I'm going to you know, 149 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 2: pick on SKW just because that's whatever you know, fancy 150 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 2: quant people talk about they get you know, they go 151 00:07:34,560 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 2: to Chicago and they go skew. Good, use that you'll 152 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 2: get to get a job. Okay, the skew. The dynamics 153 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 2: of the market. Now if I'm not trading, but I'm 154 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 2: looking out one year, three or five years, to me, 155 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 2: the dynamics are actually pretty healthy. If a company raises 156 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 2: their dividend ten percent and does a share buyback, the 157 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 2: stock goes up. Makes sense to you? Is it a 158 00:07:56,600 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 2: normal market. 159 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 1: It's a normal market. 160 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 3: I agree, we're in a normal market. I really think 161 00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 3: ninety five is the analogy here. I think we're in 162 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 3: a place where we had some slow down earlier in 163 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 3: the year that looks to have stopped. I mean, look 164 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 3: at retail sales yesterday Atlanta fed GP nows up back 165 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:16,800 Speaker 3: up to three percent. So we know it's not exact, 166 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 3: but it's directionally correct usually, and so it just feels 167 00:08:20,160 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 3: like we're in a very good place. 168 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: So the labor market, the labor. 169 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:28,680 Speaker 3: Market is showing clear signs, clear signs of slowing. I'd 170 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 3: call it into a normalization. But that normalization seems to 171 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 3: have happened earlier in the year than we thought, because 172 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 3: I mean, the day that the revisions have been pretty dramatic. 173 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 3: So you know, the FED can start, it's time to start. 174 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:41,800 Speaker 3: It's just time to start cutting. 175 00:08:41,960 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 4: And so again I'll ask the simple question to day 176 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 4: twenty five or fifty, what should they do and what 177 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 4: do you think they're going to So I. 178 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 3: Think they should yes, I think they should do fifty okay, 179 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 3: because I think they are at least two hundred basis points. 180 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 3: Real rates are at least two hundreds basis points, and 181 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,440 Speaker 3: that feels too tight. And we're definitely squeezing the lower 182 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,080 Speaker 3: quintile consumer. And the housing market is all but stopped 183 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 3: right because of mortgage rates, so that should loosen up. 184 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: They should do fifty. There's plenty of room here to cut. 185 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 3: But I don't think they will because I simply think 186 00:09:13,600 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 3: the market's two off sides. There wasn't enough communication about 187 00:09:17,400 --> 00:09:20,559 Speaker 3: it before they had to go into their dark period, 188 00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 3: and I think they'll think the prudent and best path 189 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 3: not to royal the market is to go twenty five. 190 00:09:27,400 --> 00:09:31,120 Speaker 2: Lisa's been medicating these with Tang since five am. I'm 191 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:34,079 Speaker 2: not giving my opinion, folks. Everybody's saying, what do you think? 192 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 2: What do you think? What do you think? We were 193 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 2: just going to listen to people like Alisia Levie exactly 194 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,440 Speaker 2: fifty twenty five. 195 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: It's okay, and it's okay. 196 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 3: I don't think it royals markets either way, although some 197 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 3: parts of this trade are going to be disappointed. You know, 198 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 3: last week at s and p F four percent, now 199 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 3: it's like up six percent going into that fifty basis 200 00:09:54,280 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 3: point probability going min. 201 00:09:56,160 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 2: Here psychotherapy, doctor Alicia, thank you so much. Being well well. 202 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 2: It's head of investment Strategy Inequities joining us now for 203 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 2: three hour conversation, Jason Furman. He's at Harvard University of course, 204 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 2: teaching X ten and I can't say enough about your 205 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 2: need to follow Professor Furman on Twitter. It is the 206 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 2: adult feed out there on economics now linking in policy, 207 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 2: and of course the uproar of his op ed supporting 208 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:37,560 Speaker 2: Harris Da Da da. We're not doing that today. He's 209 00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:40,880 Speaker 2: got the best annualized inflation metric of I think it's 210 00:10:40,920 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 2: twenty one data points to give you the vector on inflation. 211 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,199 Speaker 2: We're not doing that today. We're doing this idiocy of 212 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,600 Speaker 2: this meeting today. In our communicated strategy, Jason, you partition 213 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:58,840 Speaker 2: monetary policy into two tunnels, and tunnel one where we're 214 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:03,320 Speaker 2: on right now is completely subjective to rates. And in 215 00:11:03,360 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 2: Twitter you have as beautifully stated as only you can 216 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 2: do the policy you get from an inertial style tailor rule. 217 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 2: Discuss that for mere mortals, we're rule based. We're looking 218 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 2: at inertial force to stagger back to once we what 219 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 2: knew is that basically what we're going to see at 220 00:11:22,920 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 2: two o'clock. 221 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, so great, Tom. You know, there's no award that 222 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:30,559 Speaker 5: I prize more than when I get the tweet of 223 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 5: the day from you. I get so excited. So yeah. 224 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:39,400 Speaker 5: The way the FED conducts policy, I call it no reversals. 225 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:44,319 Speaker 5: They're very, very very averse to reversing themselves. They want 226 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 5: overwhelming evidence before they start to move. So what does 227 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 5: that mean. Let's say the FED funds for eighty a 228 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 5: year ago should have been five, and then it should 229 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 5: have been four point seventy five. Then it should have 230 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 5: been four point five. 231 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 2: They don't move. 232 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 5: They wait until it should be something like four, and 233 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:02,319 Speaker 5: then they start to move slowly towards it. That means 234 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 5: that if they make a mistake and it turns out, 235 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 5: oh no, it doesn't need to be four, it needs 236 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 5: to be four and a half, they can call off 237 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 5: the future cuts rather than have to reverse themselves and 238 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:17,440 Speaker 5: raise rates. That gives a certain inertial predictability, which is nice, 239 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 5: but it also guarantees that they're behind the curve and 240 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 5: means that their words just matter huch amount. 241 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 2: Vulcaran green Span didn't have this Paul. I literally remember 242 00:12:29,320 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 2: the joke that if green Span was it peanut butter 243 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 2: and jelly or a ham sandwich in his briefcase when 244 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:39,400 Speaker 2: he went into the Echoes building on FED Day. Professor Furman, 245 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 2: are all the well meaning people at the FED victims 246 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 2: of the modern media frenzy, including you pounding them out 247 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 2: on Twitter. 248 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:52,439 Speaker 5: Look, I'm not sure. I think this is the paradigm 249 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 5: We've been in for at least a decade now. We 250 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 5: got into it in an even stronger way because of 251 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,920 Speaker 5: Forward Guidance, which when it first was launched during the 252 00:13:00,960 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 5: financial crisis was important. It was all about lowering real 253 00:13:04,880 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 5: interest rates by promising the nominal rate would stay lower 254 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 5: for longer. You don't have that consideration when rates are 255 00:13:12,160 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 5: above zero, when you're not in a financial crisis. But 256 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 5: it's where we are. It's how the market operates, how 257 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 5: the media operates, how the FED operates. I don't think 258 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 5: they can change it this afternoon, but it is worth 259 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 5: giving some serious consideration of shifting to an alternative approach 260 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 5: where you set rates based on all the information you have. 261 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,640 Speaker 5: You do your best guess, and that means that the 262 00:13:31,679 --> 00:13:34,280 Speaker 5: next meeting you will always be as likely to raise 263 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 5: rates as to lower them. So you don't have the 264 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 5: cutting cycles, you don't have the increasing cycles. You have 265 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 5: something that I need to find a better word for this, 266 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 5: but statistically is equivalent to a random walk. 267 00:13:46,280 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 4: Jason, if we had a dissenting vote today, would that 268 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 4: be newsworthy to you? 269 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:56,000 Speaker 5: I'd love to see a descent. You know, there's twelve 270 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 5: people voting, they have different views. They don't all think 271 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 5: exactly the same thing. It's healthy for people to express 272 00:14:05,200 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 5: those different views. So I will be newsworthy because it's 273 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,880 Speaker 5: not something that's happened a whole lot under the J. 274 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 5: Powell Fed. But I think it would be welcome. 275 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,000 Speaker 4: Once the Fed does begin cutting rage, Jason, is there 276 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 4: a preferred path you'd like to see them take, whether 277 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:22,960 Speaker 4: it be kind of a measured twenty five basis points 278 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 4: every period or every meeting, or something maybe a little 279 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 4: bit more nuanced. 280 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 5: Right, I mean, I have this like crazy fantasy that 281 00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 5: they'll cut by thirty seven point five basis points today 282 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 5: and then we can all call the FED funds rate 283 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 5: two without talking about the range or the midpoint of 284 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 5: the range anymore. And by the way, it splits the 285 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 5: baby between two things, absent that fantastical outcome, I lean 286 00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,280 Speaker 5: towards twenty five. I think, up until the last few days, 287 00:14:51,560 --> 00:14:55,520 Speaker 5: that basically is what they're forward guidance, such as it 288 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 5: is set the precedent for but twenty five with the 289 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,040 Speaker 5: expectation that the continuing to operate at the same pace 290 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 5: for the next couple of meetings. 291 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,440 Speaker 2: I get an that's not strong for you, Jason. I 292 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: get an x ten at least for one day, because 293 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 2: I was saying split the difference as well, I mean 294 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 2: back to Arthur Burns. I actually went back and looked Jason, 295 00:15:13,640 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 2: not Bowman at recently of the descent, but there have 296 00:15:17,080 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 2: been numerous times where we've done something in between twenty 297 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: five in fifty. I agree with you that, you know, 298 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:27,320 Speaker 2: splitting it today would be charming. What would be the 299 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 2: reaction of the FED and the reaction of the markets 300 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 2: to an in between the three eights? 301 00:15:35,760 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 5: You know, I don't know. I don't know if like, 302 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 5: there's computers out there that are programmed to do twenty 303 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 5: five point fifty and they blow up when this happened. 304 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 5: I assume, I assume that's not the case. I'm not 305 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,840 Speaker 5: in the plumbing of this stuff, but you know, people 306 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 5: are going to be disappointed, people are going to be 307 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:54,800 Speaker 5: surprised no matter what they do. At thirty seven point five, 308 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 5: you are minimizing the disappointment and surprise. But really, my 309 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 5: passion stems from just hating to talk about this range. 310 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 5: It just adds extra words every time you talk about 311 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:06,600 Speaker 5: the Fench Frinds rate. 312 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 2: You can come back. 313 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 4: Paul here, Jason, what's your thoughts of this economy? 314 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 5: Here? 315 00:16:11,680 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 4: Is it has just fed waited too long, And there's 316 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 4: a lot of folks that will point to recent, recent, recent, 317 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 4: real time data saying, boy, I think this economy is kind. 318 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:21,080 Speaker 2: Of rolling over a little bit. 319 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:22,080 Speaker 1: Are you in that camp? 320 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 5: Look, the economy grew at three percent annual rate in 321 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 5: Q two, Yep. It looks like it's going to grow 322 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 5: at two and a half to three percent in Q three. 323 00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 5: Consumer spending is crazy strong. I don't I don't think 324 00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 5: there's like a huge hurry to get to this. I'm 325 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 5: glad they're doing it today. It makes sense if they 326 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 5: had known the jobs data, they would have done it 327 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 5: in July, if that meeting had happened two days later. 328 00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 5: But this to me is about the right timing. I 329 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 5: think there's still a really symmetry. Inflation can be very, 330 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,080 Speaker 5: very costly to squeeze out. The longer you have it, 331 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 5: more costly it gets. And that was risky side of 332 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 5: the mandate as recently as six months ago. And they 333 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 5: were correct to think. 334 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 2: That, Jason, we should stay on this because it's the 335 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: news of the moment. But I got to you know, 336 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,280 Speaker 2: bigger and larger. You've been writing up a storm about 337 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 2: our future policy of these two candidates, who seem to 338 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:22,199 Speaker 2: be both devoid of policy, remind our audience coast to 339 00:17:22,320 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 2: coast of the harm of tariffs in America. 340 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's just crazy that we're actually contemplating putting a 341 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 5: twenty percent tariff on every country in the world, on 342 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:43,320 Speaker 5: every single thing they make. That will raise prices for 343 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 5: American consumers. It'll raise inflation if the Fed doesn't look 344 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 5: through it. It will also result in higher interest rates. 345 00:17:51,600 --> 00:17:54,879 Speaker 5: It won't reduce our trade deficit at all, because a 346 00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 5: combination of exchange rate changes and or foreign retaliation will happen, 347 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 5: which means instead we'll just get less imports and also 348 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,520 Speaker 5: less exports and all the jobs supported by exports, all 349 00:18:08,560 --> 00:18:10,440 Speaker 5: with no negotiating theory at all. What are we trying 350 00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 5: to get from Australia. Are we trying to bring the 351 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 5: ballpoint pend in industry back to America? You know, it 352 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 5: just makes no sense at all. 353 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 2: Well, probably have to export Wolfers of Michigan back to Australia. 354 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 2: That's probably what will happen, So Jason, given the theme 355 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 2: on tariffs, Let's say the former president wins and he 356 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 2: has to go out and find somebody like you to 357 00:18:32,400 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 2: run economic policy. Now, let's say Glenn Hubbard. I'm just 358 00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 2: picking a name out of the blue folks, the wonderful 359 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 2: Glenn Hubbard of Columbia is selected by mister Trump, President 360 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 2: Trumps second term, and he goes in and he has 361 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 2: to do this, and Glenn's doing it for love of 362 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,160 Speaker 2: the nation and all that. Do you have any confidence 363 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 2: that right leaning, conservative measured economists can convince President Trump 364 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:00,680 Speaker 2: of a more path. 365 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 5: Look, it would be a wonderful sign if in the 366 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 5: case that Donald Trump gets elected he picks someone like 367 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 5: Glenn Hubbard to advise him. That's not the type of 368 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 5: people he's surrounding himself with right now. And you know 369 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 5: he doesn't need to listen to them, even if he is. 370 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 5: His trend over the course of his first term was 371 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 5: to listen to more extreme and irresponsible voices over time, 372 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 5: and I worry his second term would be an extension 373 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 5: of that. But you know, with him, you never know. 374 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 4: So hey, Jason, publish, He says, yeah, Jason, can you 375 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 4: summarize the op ed piece you put in the journal 376 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:43,760 Speaker 4: you published in the journal two days ago putting up 377 00:19:44,040 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 4: the two candidates, and maybe what their economic policies look 378 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:47,440 Speaker 4: like to summarize that force. 379 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 2: Sure. 380 00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 5: Look, they're both economics majors, and economists are all pulling 381 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,639 Speaker 5: their hair out because we're hearing all sorts of things 382 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 5: like blocking investment coming into the country from Japan and 383 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 5: you know, price Oujing and things like that. But I 384 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 5: do think you need to quantify. You can't just do 385 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,920 Speaker 5: a plague on both your houses. And the quantification is 386 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:10,119 Speaker 5: quite different. Trump much much much higher tariffs. His tarifs 387 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 5: would cover two hundred times more of the economy and 388 00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:17,879 Speaker 5: imports than Harris's would. On the deficit, I at up 389 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,919 Speaker 5: Trump's proposals at more than five trillion, Harris is in 390 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 5: the worst case one point five trillion, But it depends 391 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 5: on whether she fills in some details and how she does. 392 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 5: And then finally on the FED. I have complete faith 393 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,160 Speaker 5: that Harris would do the same thing that Bush, Clinton, 394 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 5: Obama and other mainstream presidents have done. Donald Trump is 395 00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,679 Speaker 5: a real tail risk to the FED in terms of 396 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:41,399 Speaker 5: how he handles it. 397 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,440 Speaker 2: Jason Furman, thank you so much for joining us today 398 00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:48,159 Speaker 2: at Harvard University teaching X ten after May and Q 399 00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 2: and others. Jason Furman of course on this FED day 400 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:58,600 Speaker 2: as well. Well, there's something going on here. You're not 401 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,560 Speaker 2: policing the interns. Is the second guest this week where 402 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: we've got to open Where the Texas Longhorns. What in 403 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 2: God's name is this about? Ar for really talking up 404 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 2: joining us now with some real substantial effort at his Austin, Texas. 405 00:21:14,800 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 2: What is going on with Longhorn football? I mean, what's 406 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 2: the cool aid down there? 407 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 6: Well, we're really proud of our team, but I think 408 00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 6: Tom the messages take it in one week at a time. 409 00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 6: At the it's fun, it's fun, it's fine. 410 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 2: I want the Cotton Bowl. I want to fight in 411 00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 2: Texas Aggy's Longhorns Thanksgiving Day at the Cotton Bowl. What 412 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:35,720 Speaker 2: we would watch? 413 00:21:35,960 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 6: Yeah, that would be good. I'm a product of an 414 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 6: age when the Southwest conference was a big thing. 415 00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 2: It was was a big thing. Here. We are thrilled 416 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 2: you here with KPMG, and I got to ask you 417 00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 2: a couple industry questions before we get your wonderful CEO survey. 418 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:53,760 Speaker 2: My grandfather would have adored you because you came out 419 00:21:53,760 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 2: of audit. Right what's the problem with the consulting side 420 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,400 Speaker 2: of the business. Right now, Guys like you are meet 421 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,919 Speaker 2: the potatoes, the oxygen of the system, and there's this 422 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:10,439 Speaker 2: incredible sector tension between audit and consulting. How do you 423 00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 2: fix attention? 424 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 6: Well, so we have a multi discimary model. We have audit, tax, consulting, 425 00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 6: and deal advisory strategy. We think that model is absolutely 426 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,879 Speaker 6: fit for purpose. We don't feel tension between the two 427 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 6: sectors within our business. What I would say Tom, though, 428 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 6: is that there's some softness in consulting, and there has 429 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:37,800 Speaker 6: been for about eighteen months with more caution around corporate spending. 430 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,320 Speaker 6: But what we see is real demand when it comes 431 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:46,199 Speaker 6: to transformation, so particularly technology transformation, and JENITIAI is feeding 432 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 6: some of that right now. So we feel really good 433 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 6: about the prospects of the consulting business long term. But 434 00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 6: at the end of the day, that business really helps 435 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 6: our tax and audit business to succeed in the market. 436 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 2: All I ask is it should be to help debits 437 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 2: and credits worked so far. 438 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 4: Credits story, right, That's what I remember, all right, Paul, 439 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 4: You guys at KPMG, you talk to everybody, I mean, 440 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 4: on your world. Rollodecks, which gets don't even Rollodecks is 441 00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,480 Speaker 4: every CEO of every corporation around the world. And I 442 00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 4: know you guys survey your clients. What are they telling 443 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:24,120 Speaker 4: you about some of their biggest issues or challenges right now? 444 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,880 Speaker 6: Well, there's no doubt that cyber is a big risk, 445 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 6: and generative AI is causing that risk to evolve over time. 446 00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 6: Geopolitical complexity is at the top of the list and 447 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:39,080 Speaker 6: has been for almost two years now, and then political 448 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 6: uncertainty is really high up there too, particularly around what's 449 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,320 Speaker 6: going to happen in Congress with the TCGA explorations, almost 450 00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 6: fort trillion dollars of tax provisions expiring at the end 451 00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 6: of next year. Those things are really top of mind. 452 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 6: A big challenge they side too often is making sure 453 00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 6: that they embrace and bed generative AI in their businesses. 454 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,879 Speaker 6: They believe business leaders believe it's going to be truly transformative, 455 00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 6: but it's probably more in the timeframe Paul of three 456 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 6: to five years from now. Your companies have to make 457 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 6: sure they have their data right, the quality of the data, 458 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,879 Speaker 6: the right governance around it, and make sure they have 459 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 6: their employees adopting it and well trained on it. 460 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 2: On the consulting side of that, at KPMG, how do 461 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 2: you help people not throw money into the wind. How 462 00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:33,680 Speaker 2: do you make an efficacious expenditure in this new fangled AI. 463 00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 6: Right, So you start with making sure you have a 464 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 6: trusted framework for AI, because you're going to lose credibility 465 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,119 Speaker 6: really quickly if you come out of the box with 466 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 6: something that's not safe and ethical. And then you move 467 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:50,240 Speaker 6: to talking to your clients about use cases. Where can 468 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 6: you put jenerit of AI in your business? AI in 469 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,639 Speaker 6: your business? Typically, Tom, it's been in the area of 470 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 6: customer experience very early company thinking about how you interacted 471 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,840 Speaker 6: with your customers with jenertive AI. But we're also seeing 472 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 6: it definitely impacting the speed of development of software. 473 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,959 Speaker 2: Software coding absolute. 474 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:17,879 Speaker 6: Absolutely, and then because of its predictive and analytical capabilities, 475 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 6: it's very powerful in finance and accounting too, So we 476 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:25,040 Speaker 6: are definitely talking to clients moving from not just use cases, 477 00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 6: but actually they're operationalizing it. 478 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:28,840 Speaker 2: And this is where you say, and when we consult 479 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 2: we say, of course you need a Bloomberg terminal. 480 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:35,919 Speaker 6: Absolutely, absolutely so cybersecurity I kind of feel like, you know, 481 00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,600 Speaker 6: we talked about, you know, it just seems like the 482 00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 6: growth story that just keeps on giving. 483 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 4: I can't I've not spoken to a CEO who was 484 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 4: not increasing his or her investment in cybersecurity. I guess 485 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:48,720 Speaker 4: the question for a lot of them is how do 486 00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:50,760 Speaker 4: you do it smartly? I mean it just I can't 487 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 4: go out and just buy a piece of software off 488 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 4: the shelf and say I dealt with my cybersecurity issues. 489 00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 6: How do you do it smart well, you certainly have 490 00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 6: to talk to a lot of different stakeholders and consists 491 00:26:00,160 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 6: ncies to make sure you get it right. The risk 492 00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 6: is evolving, so as I mentioned earlier, these deep fakes 493 00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,080 Speaker 6: that have been that are emanating from generative AI and 494 00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,680 Speaker 6: AI are sort of new on the scene the last 495 00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 6: couple of years, and so because of the continuously evolving 496 00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:21,680 Speaker 6: nature of cyber crime and the criminals are adopting different techniques, 497 00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,960 Speaker 6: you have to be ever vigilant awareness is really crucial 498 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,719 Speaker 6: as a preventivetive measure and making sure that you prevent 499 00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 6: the cyber crime from happening in the first place, and 500 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:35,560 Speaker 6: then just making sure that you're working with the right 501 00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 6: technology providers to monitor and ensure that you're capturing these 502 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 6: threats before they become reality. 503 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 2: I want to talk about the real headache at KPMG 504 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:51,199 Speaker 2: is getting and keeping the young troops and the glorious 505 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 2: skill of accounting. Let's start with the why. Why all 506 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:58,719 Speaker 2: of a sudden is it hard to find audit people 507 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 2: like you were years ago out of the University of Texas. 508 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 6: Yeah, there's been a precipitous decline in the number of 509 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 6: students going to college number one, but then certainly going 510 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,800 Speaker 6: into accounting. So it's a real challenge. We are, certainly 511 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,119 Speaker 6: as an industry and as a firm, trying to entice 512 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 6: and tell our story about the long term benefit of 513 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,120 Speaker 6: an accounting and auditing background. 514 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:26,200 Speaker 2: What centry for non CPA accounting kid green out of school? 515 00:27:26,640 --> 00:27:29,280 Speaker 2: Not KPMG, but just as a general industry. 516 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 6: Statement, Yeah, you know, it would range from sector sector 517 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 6: from anywhere from sixty to one hundred plus thousand dollars 518 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 6: in that range coming out of college. 519 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:40,200 Speaker 2: And then they get on CPA track. 520 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,720 Speaker 6: You're certainly an important asset if you have a CPA, 521 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 6: and that's something that is a declining number of them. 522 00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 2: So where is that compensation level? 523 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 6: So that compensation level is sort of built in and 524 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,399 Speaker 6: expected that you would achieve that status. But once you 525 00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 6: achieved that status, you can expect your compensation to accelerate. 526 00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 2: You're not going to give me an answer, Come on, 527 00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 2: it's surveillance. 528 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, give me a number of a counting the kids 529 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,879 Speaker 4: come out of college with their counting degrees and they 530 00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 4: basically have their cps. 531 00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:11,000 Speaker 6: Yeah, That's why I was going to say, Tom, is 532 00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:13,120 Speaker 6: that when they come out of college, they typically within 533 00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 6: one to two years have their CPA. 534 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:17,200 Speaker 2: Sort of expected they're paying them one hundred grand. 535 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 6: Well, so at certain levels we are, yes, and at 536 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 6: certain markets we are. So you're obviously going to have 537 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,919 Speaker 6: something different in New York than you're going to have 538 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:26,960 Speaker 6: in a middle of market. 539 00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 4: And do you still still send your consulting teams and 540 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 4: your audit teams on site or since a pandemic is 541 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:32,919 Speaker 4: everything remote now? 542 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:37,920 Speaker 6: So no, it's hybrid. It's definitely hybrid. And we're traveling 543 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 6: a lot more there. I'd say on average, we're back 544 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 6: in the office two and after three days a week 545 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 6: with a hybrid flexible. 546 00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 2: I got twenty seconds. We got to make some news here. 547 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 2: Nobody cares about today. There's nothing going on this afternoon 548 00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 2: walking up, just simple. Are you going to five days 549 00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 2: a week like Amazon? 550 00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 6: We have no plan to do so. We are planning 551 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 6: on optimizing our hybrid environment right now. 552 00:28:59,480 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 2: It's the world. 553 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 6: And try to make sure. 554 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,720 Speaker 2: Give his entouration and control room when you give him 555 00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:07,600 Speaker 2: some tang so that'll calm down. We gotta go pulking up. 556 00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 2: This is great. When the fight in Texas at he's 557 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,560 Speaker 2: beat the long Orange comeback. That's all I gotta say. 558 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:17,160 Speaker 2: The chief executive officer of Ken Pete MG, thank you 559 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 2: so much. Good morning. When your daily look the front pages, 560 00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,360 Speaker 2: Alisa Matteo. Hour is your report today? Fed? Free? 561 00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 5: It is free? 562 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:37,440 Speaker 1: Okay, good, here we go. 563 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:39,760 Speaker 7: What it isn't for you? You know, we've been talking 564 00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:43,160 Speaker 7: a lot about sports college athletes getting paid. Right well, 565 00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 7: it looks like we figured out who is going to 566 00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 7: be footing some of that bill, and that would be 567 00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 7: college football fans. This is the University of Tennessee. They're 568 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 7: adding a ten percent talent fee to twenty twenty five 569 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,920 Speaker 7: football tickets that will go toward paying the players. It 570 00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 7: was made an announcement and email to fans. If the 571 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 7: athletic director said, hey, we want to be a leader 572 00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 7: in college sports, that means we want to be a 573 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 7: leader in revenue sharing ten percent, though only a portion 574 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 7: of that cost. 575 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,320 Speaker 1: The university told Business Insider that talent. 576 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 7: Fee is going to cover about thirty three percent of 577 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:19,080 Speaker 7: that total cost. So now fans have to be there sports. 578 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 4: And there's something called the collectives, which are basically groups 579 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:24,440 Speaker 4: of a collective. Each university has a collective or more 580 00:30:24,480 --> 00:30:25,800 Speaker 4: than one collective, which are. 581 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 2: Just groups of boosters who pull. 582 00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,560 Speaker 4: Their money to help fund and ill Educate me here, 583 00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 4: which is I think the real scary part of the 584 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:34,000 Speaker 4: whole thing. 585 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,520 Speaker 2: Educate me in Tennessee. They've got d one this famous 586 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 2: you know, football, basketball, whatever they've got I'm going to say, 587 00:30:41,280 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 2: field hockey. 588 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:42,320 Speaker 6: Right. 589 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:43,200 Speaker 2: Do they get paid? 590 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 4: I don't, that's no question. And if they do, it's deminimus. 591 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 4: If they do, it's dominimous. But for example, women's gym's nastics, 592 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,560 Speaker 4: some of those athletes are getting paid a lot because 593 00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 4: they have huge social media platforms and they're making tons 594 00:30:58,240 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 4: of money. 595 00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 2: The social media is part of this. 596 00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,440 Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, So the kids are figuring out a way 597 00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:05,560 Speaker 4: to build their brands. 598 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:10,080 Speaker 2: Don't ruin. My week is Tennessee. Still in the sec Yes, okay, 599 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 2: still life goes on right next. 600 00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: Oh this is going to fire you up. Okay. 601 00:31:14,440 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 7: So a new study shows that younger adults, more of 602 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,440 Speaker 7: them are heading to TikTok for their news updates. Yes, 603 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,280 Speaker 7: this is from Pew Research. Seventeen percent you as adults 604 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,240 Speaker 7: say they regularly get news from the site that's owned 605 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 7: by China based Bite Dance. We've been hearing a lot 606 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,760 Speaker 7: about it. That's a fivefold increase from twenty to twenty. 607 00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:33,760 Speaker 7: The most likely to turn to TikTok for news those 608 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,040 Speaker 7: who are between the ages of eighteen and twenty nine 609 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 7: thirty nine percent and say they regularly get news from 610 00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,120 Speaker 7: the app. I have to say, my young one every 611 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 7: time he has a news update and he sends me 612 00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,480 Speaker 7: a little text and it's always a TikTok. Don't understand. 613 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:51,800 Speaker 2: Are they accurate though? Are theycurent? 614 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,560 Speaker 4: Do you think they're accurate? Are they from reasonable sources. 615 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,600 Speaker 7: You with deems sometimes but other times I'm like, just 616 00:31:58,680 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 7: go to the original source. 617 00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 1: Well, what are you doing. 618 00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,719 Speaker 7: Your mom's a journalist, why are you going to be TikTok. 619 00:32:05,160 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 2: I looked at it for two hours, folks, total like 620 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:12,600 Speaker 2: downloaded the app, looked at it, and I really wonder, 621 00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 2: you know, just not to pick Bloomberg, but say the 622 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 2: New York Times are they going to distribute through TikTok. 623 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,240 Speaker 2: I just don't see it. I can't get there. 624 00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 7: I don't know a lot of people have the TikTok 625 00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:24,920 Speaker 7: President of TikTok. 626 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 2: Yes, I don't. 627 00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:28,400 Speaker 4: Want to see though. I mean again, TikTok is it's 628 00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 4: you know, it's with the courts, right. 629 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,400 Speaker 7: It's going through a lot. Yeah, it's a big battle. 630 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,360 Speaker 7: Next this this one stock out to me because I 631 00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:35,960 Speaker 7: love the fall. 632 00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 1: I'm a leaf peeper. 633 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,360 Speaker 7: Okay, So this is from the Boston Globe. The lack 634 00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 7: of rainfall in most of in England over recent weeks 635 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 7: it's going to affect the timing the peak season. So 636 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:49,400 Speaker 7: the peak season is coming earlier than before. In fact, 637 00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 7: they're saying it already started in northern New England. At 638 00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,960 Speaker 7: the same time, the color is not going to last 639 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 7: as long. So if you want to see the colors, 640 00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:01,800 Speaker 7: you should go now, okay and up your plans. The 641 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,280 Speaker 7: best place is to watch the color Western Massachusetts, Central Vermont, 642 00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 7: Western White Mountains in New Hampshire. So I'm a big 643 00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:08,800 Speaker 7: fan of it. 644 00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: I'm going to be heading out. 645 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:10,120 Speaker 2: Are you. 646 00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:12,400 Speaker 4: I just think Jersey's got great foliage. 647 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:15,080 Speaker 2: You do, but we don't get it first the first 648 00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 2: week the summer. 649 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,000 Speaker 4: Okay, we're a little behind the got my window and 650 00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:19,520 Speaker 4: I got grateful. 651 00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:24,000 Speaker 2: Good. It's a big deal and it's actually really important. 652 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:28,120 Speaker 2: Her styllars for a lot of port knowing it really. 653 00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 1: Works out they do. 654 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 7: Okay, So we were talking about the FED, right, big 655 00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:36,280 Speaker 7: decision coming later. Everybody's waiting for free because I guess 656 00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,600 Speaker 7: what comes after the FED Later tonight it is the 657 00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 7: debut of the Golden Bachelorette. Every she did see Okay, 658 00:33:46,800 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 7: she's a fan. It's Joan Vasso. She is a school administrator, 659 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 7: rock Fill, Rockville, Maryland. She's sixty one years old. She's 660 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:56,760 Speaker 7: a grandma. She gets her choice of twenty four men. 661 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:58,520 Speaker 7: Twenty four men are going to be out there. She's 662 00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 7: gonna pick who she wants to be hooked up with. 663 00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 7: But she's a widow, like we said, married thirty two years, 664 00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:09,000 Speaker 7: four kids. She's looking for someone outgoing, someone courteous, five. 665 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:11,520 Speaker 2: Blue eyes. Blue eyes. 666 00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 4: Because last year it was a seventy two year old grandpa. 667 00:34:16,360 --> 00:34:18,040 Speaker 4: He gated twenty two women on TV. 668 00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,719 Speaker 7: Now it's now it's on, switch announced on and she 669 00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,480 Speaker 7: was actually part of the Bachelor, but she had to 670 00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,200 Speaker 7: leave early for family emergency, so they picked her. She's 671 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 7: coming back and the guys are between the ages of 672 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,160 Speaker 7: fifty seven and sixty nine. Okay, it should be interesting. 673 00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,879 Speaker 7: I mean she she's saying that. Oh, she also wants 674 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,800 Speaker 7: someone who wants to help her with grocery shopping and 675 00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,359 Speaker 7: yard work because she doesn't like to do. 676 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:45,120 Speaker 2: I qualify bingo. Is it successful? Is a show? 677 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:48,520 Speaker 7: It is a The Bachelor, The Golden Bachelor was a 678 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,279 Speaker 7: huge success for ABC, so that's why they're hoping that 679 00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:52,320 Speaker 7: this is gonna. 680 00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:57,680 Speaker 2: Lisa Mateo the su the uh, I can't think because 681 00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:01,319 Speaker 2: of the gold Batch. I think on the show if 682 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:04,200 Speaker 2: that would be Lisa Mateo. Thank you so much for 683 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 2: the newspapers today. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing 684 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:13,680 Speaker 2: you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 685 00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,280 Speaker 2: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit 686 00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:21,440 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show 687 00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 2: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our 688 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 2: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast 689 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always 690 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:37,160 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.