WEBVTT - Markets in Record Territory After CPI; Putin-Xi Signal Stronger Ties

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Good morning, I'm Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, the markets begin this Thursday. In record territory. The

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<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred closed above fifty three hundred

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<v Speaker 2>for the first time, and the Dow is less than

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<v Speaker 2>one hundred points from the forty thousand plateau. The Catalyst

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<v Speaker 2>a report showing inflation slowed that reinforced bets. The Federal

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<v Speaker 2>Reserve will cut rates as early as September. Luka Paulini,

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<v Speaker 2>chief strategistic Pictet Asset Management, says stocks may be overvalued.

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<v Speaker 3>We see value now, for example, in bones because you

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<v Speaker 3>have a peak in US growth inflation. Yeah, stick keep

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<v Speaker 3>a probably trending down. The Fed is cut in rates,

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<v Speaker 3>so we see value bones, and if you look at equities,

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<v Speaker 3>to be honest, the value is more in Europe and Japan.

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<v Speaker 2>Pigtet Asset Management's Luca Paulini notes the SMP five hundreds

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<v Speaker 2>at its twenty third record of the year.

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<v Speaker 1>Now more on that market moving CPI report. Nathan A

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<v Speaker 1>measure of underlying inflation cooled in April for the first

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<v Speaker 1>time in six months will the figures may offer the

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<v Speaker 1>Fed some hope that inflation is resuming its downward trend.

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<v Speaker 1>Officials like Minneapolis Fed President Neil cash Curry want to

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<v Speaker 1>see additional readings to start cutting interest rates.

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<v Speaker 4>How much downward pressure is monetary policy putting on the economy,

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<v Speaker 4>that's an unknown. We don't know for sure, and that

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<v Speaker 4>tells me we probably need to sit here for a

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<v Speaker 4>while longer until we figure out where underlying inflation is

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<v Speaker 4>headed before we jump to any conclusions.

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<v Speaker 1>Minneapolis Fed President Neil cash Curry, who does not vote

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<v Speaker 1>on policy this year, says he's keeping a close eye

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<v Speaker 1>on the housing market and its role in inflation.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, one other note about that CPI report care the

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<v Speaker 2>Labor Department inadvertently published critical data thirty minutes early. While

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<v Speaker 2>there were no obvious signs the early publication moved markets,

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<v Speaker 2>the episode is likely to prompt a close look at

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<v Speaker 2>the dissemine of data that has implications for global asset

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<v Speaker 2>prices and Fed policy.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Nathan, we now turned to politics and a crucial

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<v Speaker 1>meeting between two world leaders Chinese President she and Vladimir

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<v Speaker 1>Putin meeting earlier in Beijing, and as the war with

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine enters its third year. Xi Jinping signals to putin

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<v Speaker 1>ties between the two nations remained strong. We get more

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<v Speaker 1>from a bloombergs er Bekachun Wilkins in Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, there's certainly one another's most important allies when it

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<v Speaker 5>comes to this bigger geopolitical agenda of building the so

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<v Speaker 5>called multipolar world, pushing back on what they say as

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<v Speaker 5>sort of the US hegemony. But of course since Ladimir

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<v Speaker 5>Putin's invasion of Ukraine, there has been a deeper, much

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<v Speaker 5>deeper imbalance in that relationship. Russia has needed China economically

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<v Speaker 5>far more than it has ever done in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>And Bloomberger Bekachun Wilkins, reporting from Hong Kong, China Central Television,

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<v Speaker 1>says she said his nation was quote ready to work

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<v Speaker 1>with Russia as a good neighbor, friend and partner with

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<v Speaker 1>mutual trust.

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<v Speaker 2>Well as for domestic politics, Karen, the debates are set

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<v Speaker 2>between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, even before

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<v Speaker 2>they are officially their party's nominees. The two front runners

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<v Speaker 2>have agreed to face off twice, first on CNN June

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<v Speaker 2>twenty seventh, then on ABC September tenth. Bloomberg Politics contributor

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<v Speaker 2>Rick Davis says President Biden will need to come prepared.

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<v Speaker 6>Donald Trump is a disruptive guy. He knows how to

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<v Speaker 6>take control of these situations. He's got enough capacity to

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<v Speaker 6>really be a disruptive force and something like a debate

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<v Speaker 6>and General Joe Biden, I mean, come on, I mean,

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<v Speaker 6>he's a dignified guy who tries to play by the rules,

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<v Speaker 6>even if there are no rules to be played by.

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<v Speaker 2>The Republican strategist Rick Davis says the president will have

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<v Speaker 2>to throw out the traditional rule book. Both campaigns rejected

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<v Speaker 2>the rules and schedule of the non partisan Commission on

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<v Speaker 2>Presidential Debates, which has handled these events since nineteen eighty eight.

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<v Speaker 1>In the meantime, Nathan Trump will be in a courtroom

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<v Speaker 1>as his hush money trial continues in New York. The

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<v Speaker 1>prosecution's star and witness will once again be grilled by

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's defense team, and we get the latest from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Law host Jun Grosso In New York.

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<v Speaker 7>Michael Cohen will be back on the witness stand today

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<v Speaker 7>for more cross examination by Trump's attorney, who will continue

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<v Speaker 7>to attack his credibility. Cohen is the prosecution's final witness.

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<v Speaker 7>Trial is not in session tomorrow because Trump is attending

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<v Speaker 7>his son's high school graduation. The defense has not yet

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<v Speaker 7>said whether they'll put on a case or whether Trump

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<v Speaker 7>will take the witness stand in his own defense. In

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<v Speaker 7>New York, June Grosso Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, June, thank you. Back to markets now. We're watching

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<v Speaker 2>shares of Chubb. They're up nine and a half percent

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<v Speaker 2>in early trading thanks to an investment by Warren Buffett

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<v Speaker 2>Moore from Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 8>Stug Krisner Berkshire unveiled a stake in insurer Chubb. It's

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<v Speaker 8>valued at six point seven billion dollars. Berkshire made the

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<v Speaker 8>disclosure in the filing on Wednesday. Now, the conglomerate has

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<v Speaker 8>been building this stake in Chubb since twenty twenty three,

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<v Speaker 8>but it hadn't been previously reported since the SEC allowed

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<v Speaker 8>Berkshire to keep it confidential. Even so, separate quarterly filing

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<v Speaker 8>showed Berkshire's equity stakes in banks, insurance, and finance companies

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<v Speaker 8>were growing while the firm was pulling back in other industries,

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<v Speaker 8>including consumer products. Chubb is one of the largest property

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<v Speaker 8>casualty insurers in the US, operating in fifty four countries.

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<v Speaker 8>Globally in New York, iimem Doug Prisoner Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Doug, thank you. Chares A Cisco also on

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<v Speaker 1>the rise. They're of four and a half percent. The

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<v Speaker 1>company gave a solid sales and profit forecast for the

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<v Speaker 1>current quarter. And let's say that indicates customers are beginning

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<v Speaker 1>to invest in their computer networks again.

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<v Speaker 2>Well us for the meme stocks that have been rallying

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<v Speaker 2>this week, Karen, that looks like it could be fizzling.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's get an update now from Bloomberg's John Tucker.

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<v Speaker 9>John, and if in gamestaff felt nineteen percent yesterday, AMC

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<v Speaker 9>sent twenty percent after that movie theater chain took advantage

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<v Speaker 9>of the stock rally to reduce its dat a slide,

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<v Speaker 9>erasing roughly three billion dollar dollars in market value. Between

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<v Speaker 9>the two. The stocks at more than doubled over the

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<v Speaker 9>first two days of the week. AMC and game Stop

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<v Speaker 9>are among the top ten securities bought by retail investors

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<v Speaker 9>earlier this week, with fifty one million and sixteen million

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<v Speaker 9>dollar daily inflows. But Ben Ladler, Global Market Strategists at

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<v Speaker 9>E Toro says the conditions that drove the surge and

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<v Speaker 9>the meme stocks back in two thousand and one are

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<v Speaker 9>no longer present this time around. For instance, the number

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<v Speaker 9>of call options outstanding in game Stop, that's just a

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<v Speaker 9>fraction of its peak three years ago. And in the

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<v Speaker 9>pre market AMC down twelve percent. Game Stop is down

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<v Speaker 9>sixteen percent. John Tuncker, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, John, thanks, and it's time now for a

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<v Speaker 1>look at some of the other stories making news in

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<v Speaker 1>New York and around the world. And for that we're

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<v Speaker 1>joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good Morning, Good morning.

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<v Speaker 10>Karen Slovaki Is populist Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot

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<v Speaker 10>multiple times and severely wounded after a political event and

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<v Speaker 10>hand LoVa. After the attempted assassination, doctors fought for his

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<v Speaker 10>life for several hours on the fifty nine year old

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<v Speaker 10>pro Russian Slovaki Is Defense Minister Robert Kellanak says that

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<v Speaker 10>there's no doubt that this was a politically politically motivated

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<v Speaker 10>situation behind the shooting.

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<v Speaker 11>We're just talking about the level of them, Chrissy, both

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<v Speaker 11>capability to understand each other, to accept the other opinion,

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<v Speaker 11>and not only one is that good one.

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<v Speaker 10>The deputy Prime Minister said he believes Fico will survive.

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<v Speaker 10>The Supreme Court has ordered Louisiana to hold this year's

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<v Speaker 10>election using a House map that includes a second, mostly

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<v Speaker 10>black district. The ruling puts on hold a lower courts

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<v Speaker 10>ruling that found the map to be illegal gerrymandering. Loyola

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<v Speaker 10>Law professor and former federal prosecutor Lorie Levinson, this.

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<v Speaker 12>Is a much disputed ruling because, in fact down below

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<v Speaker 12>there are questions about whether race should be used in

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<v Speaker 12>redistricting and whether in the long run, this might protect

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<v Speaker 12>some Republican districts. As it is set forth now, many

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<v Speaker 12>people see this as a victory for Democrats, who will

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<v Speaker 12>be able to likely pick up another seat in Louisiana.

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<v Speaker 10>Former federal prosecutor Lorie Levinson says the justices were acting

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<v Speaker 10>on emergency appeals by state Republican officials and black voters.

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<v Speaker 10>Texas officials say a barge hit a bridge in Galveston, Texas,

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<v Speaker 10>spilling fuel oil into the water and shutting down the

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<v Speaker 10>only road connecting Galveston and Pelican Island. Galveston County Judge

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<v Speaker 10>Mark Henry.

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<v Speaker 2>The fuel oil seeping into the Inner Coastal Waterway calls

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<v Speaker 2>him to shut down the Inner Coastal Waterway, so we

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<v Speaker 2>want to get that cleaned up and get that navigable

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<v Speaker 2>watering back open as quick as can.

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<v Speaker 10>Last year, the Federal Highway Administration's National Bridge Inventory rated

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<v Speaker 10>the Pelican Island Causeway Bridge poor. The Biden Administration is

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<v Speaker 10>initiating policies that it says will help foster a deeper

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<v Speaker 10>domestic supply chain for a solar panel. It comes after

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<v Speaker 10>please from the US manufacturers confronting a surge of terror

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<v Speaker 10>free imports. The measures announced early today include expanding tariffs,

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<v Speaker 10>tax policy guidance, and promises of heightened vigilance for signs

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<v Speaker 10>of unfair trade. Global News twenty four hours a day

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<v Speaker 10>and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm

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<v Speaker 10>Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Scores update with John Stashauer and John Good morning.

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<v Speaker 13>Good morning, Karen. Safe to say the slow start to

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<v Speaker 13>Aaron Judges season is over. Last two weeks, He's raised

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<v Speaker 13>his average seventy seven points. In Minnesota. Judge had three

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<v Speaker 13>doubles after a first inning homer that traveled four hundred

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<v Speaker 13>and sixty seven feet. Yankees bind Marcus Stroman made a

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<v Speaker 13>ten of the last thirteen that shut out the Twins

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<v Speaker 13>four to nothing. The Mets have lost five and six,

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<v Speaker 13>all three so far this week with the Phillies, who

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<v Speaker 13>are in MLB Best thirty one and thirteen. The Phils

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<v Speaker 13>one ten to five. Rangers Suarez is now eight to zero.

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<v Speaker 13>Red Sox and Nationals lost. Giants beat the Dodgers Orioles

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<v Speaker 13>one on an Natlie Rutchman walk off homer. Celtics are

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<v Speaker 13>in the NBA's East Finals for the third straight year.

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<v Speaker 13>The under man Cleveland cas again without three top players,

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<v Speaker 13>including Donovan Mitchell, gave Boston trouble before falling one thirteen

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<v Speaker 13>ninety eight, and the Celts win the series four to one.

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<v Speaker 13>Dallas goes up three to two with a one oh

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<v Speaker 13>four ninety two win at Oklahoma City. Dallas Stars lost

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<v Speaker 13>at home to Colorado five to three. Stars still lead

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<v Speaker 13>three to two and the Rangers still lead three to two,

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<v Speaker 13>but a loss tonight at Carolina means the series they

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<v Speaker 13>once led three to nothing, It's going back to the

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<v Speaker 13>Garden for a game seven. NFL schedule is out. Giants

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<v Speaker 13>will open up with a home game against Minnesota. They're

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<v Speaker 13>going to Munich November tenth to play Carolina, and the

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<v Speaker 13>Jets are going to London October sixth to face Jacksonville.

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<v Speaker 13>Three favorites for the PGA Championship that begins today in Louisville,

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<v Speaker 13>world number one Scotti Scheffler, who's red hot, Brooks Koepka,

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<v Speaker 13>who last year won the PGA for the third time,

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<v Speaker 13>and Rory McElroy, his last major championship was at Valhalla

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<v Speaker 13>a decade ago.

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<v Speaker 14>I think this is a golf course that allows you

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<v Speaker 14>to play with freedom. It's a big golf course. The

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<v Speaker 14>carridors are wide, not too dissimilar to last week at

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<v Speaker 14>quil Hollow, so you can open your shoulders up a

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<v Speaker 14>little bit off the tee and then you know, try

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<v Speaker 14>to take your chances from there.

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<v Speaker 13>Rory won that tournament last Sunday, and Charlotte also won

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<v Speaker 13>the team event the week before. Bloomberg Radio live PGA

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<v Speaker 13>coverage today starting at four John Stash. They were Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 13>Sports can here get Nathan.

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<v Speaker 10>Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM

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<v Speaker 10>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 10>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Wall Street heads into this

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<v Speaker 2>Thursday with stocks in record territory once again, with the

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<v Speaker 2>S and P five hundred now above the fifty three

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<v Speaker 2>hundred level for the first time. Cooler than expected April

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<v Speaker 2>inflation data are firming up a lot of bets that

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<v Speaker 2>the Fed could start cutting interest rates maybe late in

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<v Speaker 2>the next quarter. It's bringing Sema Shaw for some market

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<v Speaker 2>analysis now. Seema's the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Seema,

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<v Speaker 2>good morning. Are you changing your stock out look after

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<v Speaker 2>what we saw in CPI?

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<v Speaker 15>Good morning. No. We have been risk on since January.

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<v Speaker 15>We've maintained that even if you had a bit of

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<v Speaker 15>a pullback in April, and the reason is that although

0:12:13.040 --> 0:12:15.840
<v Speaker 15>the market has been pushing back, pushing out the expectations

0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:19.120
<v Speaker 15>for rate cuts, I think the fundamentals, even if you

0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.240
<v Speaker 15>were not to get rate cuts this year, the fundamentals

0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:23.760
<v Speaker 15>for the economy are still so strong and that certainly

0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:26.600
<v Speaker 15>implies that AND's growth is going to remain pretty solid

0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.240
<v Speaker 15>and that should continue to mean that stocks are going

0:12:30.280 --> 0:12:32.120
<v Speaker 15>to be boosted through the rest of Yes. It didn't

0:12:32.120 --> 0:12:33.120
<v Speaker 15>really change anything for us.

0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 2>Well, I wonder how you interpret this inflation data. Is

0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 2>it the start of a new trend, is it more

0:12:38.600 --> 0:12:39.600
<v Speaker 2>of a bump in the road.

0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:40.200
<v Speaker 13>What do you think?

0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:42.240
<v Speaker 1>So?

0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.400
<v Speaker 15>I think it's difficult at this point to make any

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:46.680
<v Speaker 15>kind of conclusions from single data points. I mean, what

0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:49.840
<v Speaker 15>we're looking at is as we look through the remainder

0:12:49.880 --> 0:12:52.319
<v Speaker 15>of twenty twenty four and into twenty five, we do

0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:54.360
<v Speaker 15>expect to see a down shift in economic growth. But

0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:56.760
<v Speaker 15>that's important though. I'm using them a downshift because we

0:12:56.880 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 15>are not expecting recession. I wouldn't even really put it

0:12:59.400 --> 0:13:01.240
<v Speaker 15>as much of a low down. It's just where you're

0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:05.280
<v Speaker 15>seeing growth revert back to trent and if that's correct,

0:13:05.440 --> 0:13:09.280
<v Speaker 15>then really you should see inflation pressures trend somewhat lower.

0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 15>We're not expecting the return to the two percent level,

0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.600
<v Speaker 15>but we do think there'll be sufficient comfort for the

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.240
<v Speaker 15>Fed to convince them to start cutting rate late in

0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:19.360
<v Speaker 15>twenty twenty four.

0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:22.800
<v Speaker 2>Late in twenty twenty four, the market starting to price

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:25.120
<v Speaker 2>in September. Is that kind of where you are?

0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:26.800
<v Speaker 1>It is?

0:13:26.880 --> 0:13:30.080
<v Speaker 15>So, actually, after the April sort of the previous CPI

0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 15>pro we came into the year. I should say expecting

0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.960
<v Speaker 15>three cuts, one in June, September, and then December. And

0:13:34.960 --> 0:13:38.720
<v Speaker 15>then after the run of three Hottan expected inflation numbers,

0:13:38.720 --> 0:13:41.840
<v Speaker 15>we did shift the forecast to one cut in September

0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.160
<v Speaker 15>and one in December. I didn't have much conviction, to

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:46.720
<v Speaker 15>be honest, about four or five weeks ago in that forecast.

0:13:47.000 --> 0:13:48.840
<v Speaker 15>But as the data has been coming through, not just

0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:52.560
<v Speaker 15>of course yesterday's data, but the payrolls data, retail sales,

0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.440
<v Speaker 15>consumer confidence, I have got a bit more conviction that

0:13:55.480 --> 0:13:56.880
<v Speaker 15>September is going to be the start day.

0:13:57.559 --> 0:14:01.319
<v Speaker 2>So you don't have any concern then that the stocks

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 2>might be overvalued at the levels that they're at right now.

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.640
<v Speaker 2>Where do you see valuations at this point?

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:09.440
<v Speaker 15>I mean it depends how you're looking. So if you

0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 15>look across the world, then yes, US valuations are definitely

0:14:12.080 --> 0:14:16.760
<v Speaker 15>the most stretched. But we are still expecting decent earnings growth. Now,

0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:18.280
<v Speaker 15>are we going to see this kind of run that

0:14:18.320 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 15>we saw in the first two months of the year.

0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 15>Probably not. We do think that EXITIS can probably eke

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.120
<v Speaker 15>out another five or ten percent rally from here, but

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 15>that's pretty solid and it should mean that as long

0:14:28.280 --> 0:14:31.640
<v Speaker 15>as it's supported by continued earnings group against that economic

0:14:31.640 --> 0:14:34.600
<v Speaker 15>backdrop that we have in our forecast, that should mean

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:36.960
<v Speaker 15>that valuations can still be supported. And it's remember for

0:14:36.960 --> 0:14:39.800
<v Speaker 15>it's important for investors to remember that valuations they give

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 15>you a direction for long term directions in the market,

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:45.720
<v Speaker 15>but it doesn't really necessarily change the short term aspects.

0:14:45.800 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 15>So as long as you've got solid earnings grope, as

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.320
<v Speaker 15>long as you've got earnings what you are doing well,

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.920
<v Speaker 15>the market can continue to perform pretty well.

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 2>Can earnings continue to do well even in a kind

0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 2>of a slowing earnings growth pattern if we continue to

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:02.160
<v Speaker 2>see a slow down in consumers.

0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 15>So consumer spending has been extraordinarily strong over the last

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 15>couple of years, and you are starting to see some

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:11.240
<v Speaker 15>strains emerging. That's mainly in the lower income consumer side.

0:15:11.440 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 15>So we do think that you're going to see at

0:15:14.440 --> 0:15:17.400
<v Speaker 15>growth remaining positive. You could see a bit of a

0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.800
<v Speaker 15>slow down, I guess, But that means I mean guess

0:15:19.800 --> 0:15:21.920
<v Speaker 15>that relates directly to the idea that you're not going

0:15:21.960 --> 0:15:24.800
<v Speaker 15>to see the exty market gains of twenty twenty three

0:15:24.920 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 15>or spending of January and February. This is going to

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:29.320
<v Speaker 15>be a more modest one, but something which is a

0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.360
<v Speaker 15>little bit more sustainable, to be honest, for the action market, only.

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:34.960
<v Speaker 2>About thirty seconds left. Where is your best opportunity right now?

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:38.800
<v Speaker 15>So look, there's a couple, but I think within exuity,

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 15>we still think that the US is looking decent. We

0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:43.880
<v Speaker 15>continue to light the large cap space, but actually more

0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 15>and more so, international equities are looking good. We look

0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:48.760
<v Speaker 15>across to Europe and the UK at least for six

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.200
<v Speaker 15>months period with rake cups on the horizon quite clearly,

0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.240
<v Speaker 15>and so economic upside surprises translating through to earning surprises.

0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:58.760
<v Speaker 15>I think there's actually opportunities over there now as well.

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.840
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