Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Good morning, I'm Nathan
Speaker 1: Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're
Speaker 1: following today.
Speaker 2: Karen, the markets begin this Thursday. In record territory. The
Speaker 2: S and P five hundred closed above fifty three hundred
Speaker 2: for the first time, and the Dow is less than
Speaker 2: one hundred points from the forty thousand plateau. The Catalyst
Speaker 2: a report showing inflation slowed that reinforced bets. The Federal
Speaker 2: Reserve will cut rates as early as September. Luka Paulini,
Speaker 2: chief strategistic Pictet Asset Management, says stocks may be overvalued.
Speaker 3: We see value now, for example, in bones because you
Speaker 3: have a peak in US growth inflation. Yeah, stick keep
Speaker 3: a probably trending down. The Fed is cut in rates,
Speaker 3: so we see value bones, and if you look at equities,
Speaker 3: to be honest, the value is more in Europe and Japan.
Speaker 2: Pigtet Asset Management's Luca Paulini notes the SMP five hundreds
Speaker 2: at its twenty third record of the year.
Speaker 1: Now more on that market moving CPI report. Nathan A
Speaker 1: measure of underlying inflation cooled in April for the first
Speaker 1: time in six months will the figures may offer the
Speaker 1: Fed some hope that inflation is resuming its downward trend.
Speaker 1: Officials like Minneapolis Fed President Neil cash Curry want to
Speaker 1: see additional readings to start cutting interest rates.
Speaker 4: How much downward pressure is monetary policy putting on the economy,
Speaker 4: that's an unknown. We don't know for sure, and that
Speaker 4: tells me we probably need to sit here for a
Speaker 4: while longer until we figure out where underlying inflation is
Speaker 4: headed before we jump to any conclusions.
Speaker 1: Minneapolis Fed President Neil cash Curry, who does not vote
Speaker 1: on policy this year, says he's keeping a close eye
Speaker 1: on the housing market and its role in inflation.
Speaker 2: Now, one other note about that CPI report care the
Speaker 2: Labor Department inadvertently published critical data thirty minutes early. While
Speaker 2: there were no obvious signs the early publication moved markets,
Speaker 2: the episode is likely to prompt a close look at
Speaker 2: the dissemine of data that has implications for global asset
Speaker 2: prices and Fed policy.
Speaker 1: Well, Nathan, we now turned to politics and a crucial
Speaker 1: meeting between two world leaders Chinese President she and Vladimir
Speaker 1: Putin meeting earlier in Beijing, and as the war with
Speaker 1: Ukraine enters its third year. Xi Jinping signals to putin
Speaker 1: ties between the two nations remained strong. We get more
Speaker 1: from a bloombergs er Bekachun Wilkins in Hong Kong.
Speaker 5: Well, there's certainly one another's most important allies when it
Speaker 5: comes to this bigger geopolitical agenda of building the so
Speaker 5: called multipolar world, pushing back on what they say as
Speaker 5: sort of the US hegemony. But of course since Ladimir
Speaker 5: Putin's invasion of Ukraine, there has been a deeper, much
Speaker 5: deeper imbalance in that relationship. Russia has needed China economically
Speaker 5: far more than it has ever done in the past.
Speaker 1: And Bloomberger Bekachun Wilkins, reporting from Hong Kong, China Central Television,
Speaker 1: says she said his nation was quote ready to work
Speaker 1: with Russia as a good neighbor, friend and partner with
Speaker 1: mutual trust.
Speaker 2: Well as for domestic politics, Karen, the debates are set
Speaker 2: between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, even before
Speaker 2: they are officially their party's nominees. The two front runners
Speaker 2: have agreed to face off twice, first on CNN June
Speaker 2: twenty seventh, then on ABC September tenth. Bloomberg Politics contributor
Speaker 2: Rick Davis says President Biden will need to come prepared.
Speaker 6: Donald Trump is a disruptive guy. He knows how to
Speaker 6: take control of these situations. He's got enough capacity to
Speaker 6: really be a disruptive force and something like a debate
Speaker 6: and General Joe Biden, I mean, come on, I mean,
Speaker 6: he's a dignified guy who tries to play by the rules,
Speaker 6: even if there are no rules to be played by.
Speaker 2: The Republican strategist Rick Davis says the president will have
Speaker 2: to throw out the traditional rule book. Both campaigns rejected
Speaker 2: the rules and schedule of the non partisan Commission on
Speaker 2: Presidential Debates, which has handled these events since nineteen eighty eight.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, Nathan Trump will be in a courtroom
Speaker 1: as his hush money trial continues in New York. The
Speaker 1: prosecution's star and witness will once again be grilled by
Speaker 1: Trump's defense team, and we get the latest from Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Law host Jun Grosso In New York.
Speaker 7: Michael Cohen will be back on the witness stand today
Speaker 7: for more cross examination by Trump's attorney, who will continue
Speaker 7: to attack his credibility. Cohen is the prosecution's final witness.
Speaker 7: Trial is not in session tomorrow because Trump is attending
Speaker 7: his son's high school graduation. The defense has not yet
Speaker 7: said whether they'll put on a case or whether Trump
Speaker 7: will take the witness stand in his own defense. In
Speaker 7: New York, June Grosso Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Okay, June, thank you. Back to markets now. We're watching
Speaker 2: shares of Chubb. They're up nine and a half percent
Speaker 2: in early trading thanks to an investment by Warren Buffett
Speaker 2: Moore from Bloomberg.
Speaker 8: Stug Krisner Berkshire unveiled a stake in insurer Chubb. It's
Speaker 8: valued at six point seven billion dollars. Berkshire made the
Speaker 8: disclosure in the filing on Wednesday. Now, the conglomerate has
Speaker 8: been building this stake in Chubb since twenty twenty three,
Speaker 8: but it hadn't been previously reported since the SEC allowed
Speaker 8: Berkshire to keep it confidential. Even so, separate quarterly filing
Speaker 8: showed Berkshire's equity stakes in banks, insurance, and finance companies
Speaker 8: were growing while the firm was pulling back in other industries,
Speaker 8: including consumer products. Chubb is one of the largest property
Speaker 8: casualty insurers in the US, operating in fifty four countries.
Speaker 8: Globally in New York, iimem Doug Prisoner Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All right, Doug, thank you. Chares A Cisco also on
Speaker 1: the rise. They're of four and a half percent. The
Speaker 1: company gave a solid sales and profit forecast for the
Speaker 1: current quarter. And let's say that indicates customers are beginning
Speaker 1: to invest in their computer networks again.
Speaker 2: Well us for the meme stocks that have been rallying
Speaker 2: this week, Karen, that looks like it could be fizzling.
Speaker 2: Let's get an update now from Bloomberg's John Tucker.
Speaker 9: John, and if in gamestaff felt nineteen percent yesterday, AMC
Speaker 9: sent twenty percent after that movie theater chain took advantage
Speaker 9: of the stock rally to reduce its dat a slide,
Speaker 9: erasing roughly three billion dollar dollars in market value. Between
Speaker 9: the two. The stocks at more than doubled over the
Speaker 9: first two days of the week. AMC and game Stop
Speaker 9: are among the top ten securities bought by retail investors
Speaker 9: earlier this week, with fifty one million and sixteen million
Speaker 9: dollar daily inflows. But Ben Ladler, Global Market Strategists at
Speaker 9: E Toro says the conditions that drove the surge and
Speaker 9: the meme stocks back in two thousand and one are
Speaker 9: no longer present this time around. For instance, the number
Speaker 9: of call options outstanding in game Stop, that's just a
Speaker 9: fraction of its peak three years ago. And in the
Speaker 9: pre market AMC down twelve percent. Game Stop is down
Speaker 9: sixteen percent. John Tuncker, Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All right, John, thanks, and it's time now for a
Speaker 1: look at some of the other stories making news in
Speaker 1: New York and around the world. And for that we're
Speaker 1: joined by Bloomberg's Michael Barr. Michael, good Morning, Good morning.
Speaker 10: Karen Slovaki Is populist Prime Minister Robert Fico was shot
Speaker 10: multiple times and severely wounded after a political event and
Speaker 10: hand LoVa. After the attempted assassination, doctors fought for his
Speaker 10: life for several hours on the fifty nine year old
Speaker 10: pro Russian Slovaki Is Defense Minister Robert Kellanak says that
Speaker 10: there's no doubt that this was a politically politically motivated
Speaker 10: situation behind the shooting.
Speaker 11: We're just talking about the level of them, Chrissy, both
Speaker 11: capability to understand each other, to accept the other opinion,
Speaker 11: and not only one is that good one.
Speaker 10: The deputy Prime Minister said he believes Fico will survive.
Speaker 10: The Supreme Court has ordered Louisiana to hold this year's
Speaker 10: election using a House map that includes a second, mostly
Speaker 10: black district. The ruling puts on hold a lower courts
Speaker 10: ruling that found the map to be illegal gerrymandering. Loyola
Speaker 10: Law professor and former federal prosecutor Lorie Levinson, this.
Speaker 12: Is a much disputed ruling because, in fact down below
Speaker 12: there are questions about whether race should be used in
Speaker 12: redistricting and whether in the long run, this might protect
Speaker 12: some Republican districts. As it is set forth now, many
Speaker 12: people see this as a victory for Democrats, who will
Speaker 12: be able to likely pick up another seat in Louisiana.
Speaker 10: Former federal prosecutor Lorie Levinson says the justices were acting
Speaker 10: on emergency appeals by state Republican officials and black voters.
Speaker 10: Texas officials say a barge hit a bridge in Galveston, Texas,
Speaker 10: spilling fuel oil into the water and shutting down the
Speaker 10: only road connecting Galveston and Pelican Island. Galveston County Judge
Speaker 10: Mark Henry.
Speaker 2: The fuel oil seeping into the Inner Coastal Waterway calls
Speaker 2: him to shut down the Inner Coastal Waterway, so we
Speaker 2: want to get that cleaned up and get that navigable
Speaker 2: watering back open as quick as can.
Speaker 10: Last year, the Federal Highway Administration's National Bridge Inventory rated
Speaker 10: the Pelican Island Causeway Bridge poor. The Biden Administration is
Speaker 10: initiating policies that it says will help foster a deeper
Speaker 10: domestic supply chain for a solar panel. It comes after
Speaker 10: please from the US manufacturers confronting a surge of terror
Speaker 10: free imports. The measures announced early today include expanding tariffs,
Speaker 10: tax policy guidance, and promises of heightened vigilance for signs
Speaker 10: of unfair trade. Global News twenty four hours a day
Speaker 10: and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm
Speaker 10: Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg Karen.
Speaker 1: All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Scores update with John Stashauer and John Good morning.
Speaker 13: Good morning, Karen. Safe to say the slow start to
Speaker 13: Aaron Judges season is over. Last two weeks, He's raised
Speaker 13: his average seventy seven points. In Minnesota. Judge had three
Speaker 13: doubles after a first inning homer that traveled four hundred
Speaker 13: and sixty seven feet. Yankees bind Marcus Stroman made a
Speaker 13: ten of the last thirteen that shut out the Twins
Speaker 13: four to nothing. The Mets have lost five and six,
Speaker 13: all three so far this week with the Phillies, who
Speaker 13: are in MLB Best thirty one and thirteen. The Phils
Speaker 13: one ten to five. Rangers Suarez is now eight to zero.
Speaker 13: Red Sox and Nationals lost. Giants beat the Dodgers Orioles
Speaker 13: one on an Natlie Rutchman walk off homer. Celtics are
Speaker 13: in the NBA's East Finals for the third straight year.
Speaker 13: The under man Cleveland cas again without three top players,
Speaker 13: including Donovan Mitchell, gave Boston trouble before falling one thirteen
Speaker 13: ninety eight, and the Celts win the series four to one.
Speaker 13: Dallas goes up three to two with a one oh
Speaker 13: four ninety two win at Oklahoma City. Dallas Stars lost
Speaker 13: at home to Colorado five to three. Stars still lead
Speaker 13: three to two and the Rangers still lead three to two,
Speaker 13: but a loss tonight at Carolina means the series they
Speaker 13: once led three to nothing, It's going back to the
Speaker 13: Garden for a game seven. NFL schedule is out. Giants
Speaker 13: will open up with a home game against Minnesota. They're
Speaker 13: going to Munich November tenth to play Carolina, and the
Speaker 13: Jets are going to London October sixth to face Jacksonville.
Speaker 13: Three favorites for the PGA Championship that begins today in Louisville,
Speaker 13: world number one Scotti Scheffler, who's red hot, Brooks Koepka,
Speaker 13: who last year won the PGA for the third time,
Speaker 13: and Rory McElroy, his last major championship was at Valhalla
Speaker 13: a decade ago.
Speaker 14: I think this is a golf course that allows you
Speaker 14: to play with freedom. It's a big golf course. The
Speaker 14: carridors are wide, not too dissimilar to last week at
Speaker 14: quil Hollow, so you can open your shoulders up a
Speaker 14: little bit off the tee and then you know, try
Speaker 14: to take your chances from there.
Speaker 13: Rory won that tournament last Sunday, and Charlotte also won
Speaker 13: the team event the week before. Bloomberg Radio live PGA
Speaker 13: coverage today starting at four John Stash. They were Bloomberg
Speaker 13: Sports can here get Nathan.
Speaker 10: Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio nationwide on Sirius XM
Speaker 10: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the
Speaker 10: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager. Wall Street heads into this
Speaker 2: Thursday with stocks in record territory once again, with the
Speaker 2: S and P five hundred now above the fifty three
Speaker 2: hundred level for the first time. Cooler than expected April
Speaker 2: inflation data are firming up a lot of bets that
Speaker 2: the Fed could start cutting interest rates maybe late in
Speaker 2: the next quarter. It's bringing Sema Shaw for some market
Speaker 2: analysis now. Seema's the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. Seema,
Speaker 2: good morning. Are you changing your stock out look after
Speaker 2: what we saw in CPI?
Speaker 15: Good morning. No. We have been risk on since January.
Speaker 15: We've maintained that even if you had a bit of
Speaker 15: a pullback in April, and the reason is that although
Speaker 15: the market has been pushing back, pushing out the expectations
Speaker 15: for rate cuts, I think the fundamentals, even if you
Speaker 15: were not to get rate cuts this year, the fundamentals
Speaker 15: for the economy are still so strong and that certainly
Speaker 15: implies that AND's growth is going to remain pretty solid
Speaker 15: and that should continue to mean that stocks are going
Speaker 15: to be boosted through the rest of Yes. It didn't
Speaker 15: really change anything for us.
Speaker 2: Well, I wonder how you interpret this inflation data. Is
Speaker 2: it the start of a new trend, is it more
Speaker 2: of a bump in the road.
Speaker 13: What do you think?
Speaker 1: So?
Speaker 15: I think it's difficult at this point to make any
Speaker 15: kind of conclusions from single data points. I mean, what
Speaker 15: we're looking at is as we look through the remainder
Speaker 15: of twenty twenty four and into twenty five, we do
Speaker 15: expect to see a down shift in economic growth. But
Speaker 15: that's important though. I'm using them a downshift because we
Speaker 15: are not expecting recession. I wouldn't even really put it
Speaker 15: as much of a low down. It's just where you're
Speaker 15: seeing growth revert back to trent and if that's correct,
Speaker 15: then really you should see inflation pressures trend somewhat lower.
Speaker 15: We're not expecting the return to the two percent level,
Speaker 15: but we do think there'll be sufficient comfort for the
Speaker 15: Fed to convince them to start cutting rate late in
Speaker 15: twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2: Late in twenty twenty four, the market starting to price
Speaker 2: in September. Is that kind of where you are?
Speaker 1: It is?
Speaker 15: So, actually, after the April sort of the previous CPI
Speaker 15: pro we came into the year. I should say expecting
Speaker 15: three cuts, one in June, September, and then December. And
Speaker 15: then after the run of three Hottan expected inflation numbers,
Speaker 15: we did shift the forecast to one cut in September
Speaker 15: and one in December. I didn't have much conviction, to
Speaker 15: be honest, about four or five weeks ago in that forecast.
Speaker 15: But as the data has been coming through, not just
Speaker 15: of course yesterday's data, but the payrolls data, retail sales,
Speaker 15: consumer confidence, I have got a bit more conviction that
Speaker 15: September is going to be the start day.
Speaker 2: So you don't have any concern then that the stocks
Speaker 2: might be overvalued at the levels that they're at right now.
Speaker 2: Where do you see valuations at this point?
Speaker 15: I mean it depends how you're looking. So if you
Speaker 15: look across the world, then yes, US valuations are definitely
Speaker 15: the most stretched. But we are still expecting decent earnings growth. Now,
Speaker 15: are we going to see this kind of run that
Speaker 15: we saw in the first two months of the year.
Speaker 15: Probably not. We do think that EXITIS can probably eke
Speaker 15: out another five or ten percent rally from here, but
Speaker 15: that's pretty solid and it should mean that as long
Speaker 15: as it's supported by continued earnings group against that economic
Speaker 15: backdrop that we have in our forecast, that should mean
Speaker 15: that valuations can still be supported. And it's remember for
Speaker 15: it's important for investors to remember that valuations they give
Speaker 15: you a direction for long term directions in the market,
Speaker 15: but it doesn't really necessarily change the short term aspects.
Speaker 15: So as long as you've got solid earnings grope, as
Speaker 15: long as you've got earnings what you are doing well,
Speaker 15: the market can continue to perform pretty well.
Speaker 2: Can earnings continue to do well even in a kind
Speaker 2: of a slowing earnings growth pattern if we continue to
Speaker 2: see a slow down in consumers.
Speaker 15: So consumer spending has been extraordinarily strong over the last
Speaker 15: couple of years, and you are starting to see some
Speaker 15: strains emerging. That's mainly in the lower income consumer side.
Speaker 15: So we do think that you're going to see at
Speaker 15: growth remaining positive. You could see a bit of a
Speaker 15: slow down, I guess, But that means I mean guess
Speaker 15: that relates directly to the idea that you're not going
Speaker 15: to see the exty market gains of twenty twenty three
Speaker 15: or spending of January and February. This is going to
Speaker 15: be a more modest one, but something which is a
Speaker 15: little bit more sustainable, to be honest, for the action market, only.
Speaker 2: About thirty seconds left. Where is your best opportunity right now?
Speaker 15: So look, there's a couple, but I think within exuity,
Speaker 15: we still think that the US is looking decent. We
Speaker 15: continue to light the large cap space, but actually more
Speaker 15: and more so, international equities are looking good. We look
Speaker 15: across to Europe and the UK at least for six
Speaker 15: months period with rake cups on the horizon quite clearly,
Speaker 15: and so economic upside surprises translating through to earning surprises.
Speaker 15: I think there's actually opportunities over there now as well.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg day Break Today, your morning brief on
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