WEBVTT - The Economy, EVs, And Markets (Podcast)

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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<v Speaker 1>my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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<v Speaker 1>with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Ellen Zentner, chief US

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<v Speaker 1>economists for Morgan Stanley, joins us here. Ellen, Matt and

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<v Speaker 1>I were just talking about insurance, UH, inflation, housing markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's start with inflation. What's your inflation calls? Did we

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<v Speaker 1>kind of peek in March April or do we have

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<v Speaker 1>more to go? So I think we've clearly seen a

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<v Speaker 1>peek in some of the categories where we were looking

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<v Speaker 1>for weakness. You know, you were just talking about UH,

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<v Speaker 1>new and used car prices, um, and there is evidence

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<v Speaker 1>that those are definitely topy here. UM. But you know,

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<v Speaker 1>inflation is going to be painful for some time here.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think the fact that um, it is

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<v Speaker 1>going to be coming off these peaks that we've just

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<v Speaker 1>hit doesn't mean that suddenly we're back at a very

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<v Speaker 1>low inflationary environment. You know, in the next couple of months.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be a slow um decline

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<v Speaker 1>from from here and we're still going to end the year,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, fairly elevated. What do you First of all,

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<v Speaker 1>I can't help but say, Ellen used to do rewind

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<v Speaker 1>with me all the time. Those were the days Ellen,

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<v Speaker 1>when you me, Joe, Bruce Willis, David Rosenberg, we had

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<v Speaker 1>the best time on that. It was a nighttime show

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg. It was it was. It was a good

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<v Speaker 1>casual conversation where we could get a little goofy that

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<v Speaker 1>happened occasionally. Um. So all right, we we we have

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<v Speaker 1>your take on inflation. I guess the next most important

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<v Speaker 1>thing is your take on growth. Um. You know, how

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<v Speaker 1>does it look? Are we just going to slow down?

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<v Speaker 1>Do we remain at trend growth? Are we headed for

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<v Speaker 1>a recession in the next you know, year and a half?

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<v Speaker 1>How do you see it? Yeah? So growth? Um? Look,

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<v Speaker 1>I think you know, I'm still concerned to have on growth.

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<v Speaker 1>UM on the US and especially when you look at

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<v Speaker 1>across other UM countries with you know, developed market central

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<v Speaker 1>banks that are also trying to do the same amount

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<v Speaker 1>of tightening, I think the US is definitely in a

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<v Speaker 1>good position to withstand the amount of tightening that the

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<v Speaker 1>FED would like to do. UM. But energy prices, while

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<v Speaker 1>they're not affecting UM the US as much as say

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<v Speaker 1>in Europe, UM and other parts of the world, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>it is affecting households in the US, and in particular

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<v Speaker 1>lower income households. And so you know, we've refreshed um

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<v Speaker 1>our look at the impact across the households in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've taken consumer spending down quite a bit going

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<v Speaker 1>into the second quarter, where I think we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get just around a one percent growth rate and consumer spending,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's because there's just only so much that households

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<v Speaker 1>can withstand, and they've got to absorb this shock of

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<v Speaker 1>higher energy, food and rents UH and rising interest rates. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>Now does that spell disasters or for the US economy, No,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think that that at least for the consumer,

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to be the slowest quarter of the year

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<v Speaker 1>as as we adjust UM. But I think we're in

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<v Speaker 1>good shape. I mean, look at jobs. Jobs have been

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<v Speaker 1>so incredibly steady in that five thousand range, and when

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<v Speaker 1>I look ahead a few weeks to the next job's report,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't see anything in the data that go into

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<v Speaker 1>those estimations. Uh, that would point to some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>slow down in job creation here. Um, And you can't

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<v Speaker 1>get a recession or a meaningful slowly down the economy

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<v Speaker 1>if you're going to still be printing that level of

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<v Speaker 1>job gains. You are a Buffalo, aren't you? Big buff?

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<v Speaker 1>I am a big buff fan and a big Long

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<v Speaker 1>Horn fan. So you grew up in Austin, Texas, like

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<v Speaker 1>at the Long Horn. Then you go to University Colorado

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<v Speaker 1>Business Administration and a master's. Yeah, well, you know the question.

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<v Speaker 1>The question is how did you ever get out of there?

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<v Speaker 1>Because most people that study in Colorado realized it's a

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<v Speaker 1>better place to live than everywhere else. It's the same,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what. Somehow I tend to to leave all

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<v Speaker 1>the good places, So I can't understand why I ever

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<v Speaker 1>left Austin Boulder, Colorado. My son just just graduated University

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<v Speaker 1>of Colorado, so I spent a lot of time in Boulder.

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<v Speaker 1>It is a fantastic town. So is Denver, of course.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's great to chat with a buff ellen Zitner

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<v Speaker 1>Sco buffs Joey, we got you on the phone. Joy

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<v Speaker 1>at Fladico, President of Lincoln, thanks so much for joining us. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>so we were just talking about, uh, what to power with?

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<v Speaker 1>What to power the navigator? Right now, there's only the

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<v Speaker 1>eco boost option. If I'm not mistaken. Are we going

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<v Speaker 1>to an electric version? Are we going to a hybrid version? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you're correct. The Navigator is just the eco boost engine

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<v Speaker 1>right now, and we don't have anything to say about

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<v Speaker 1>electrifying that vehicle yet. It's a fantastic hicle. A lot

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<v Speaker 1>of our customers use it for road trips as you

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<v Speaker 1>well know. Um, what we were talking about last night

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<v Speaker 1>here that I think you stayed up for was our

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<v Speaker 1>Lincoln Star Concept, which is an electric vehicle concept vehicle. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so talk us through that. Um. Like I said, Barbosa

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<v Speaker 1>sent me the release, I was super psyched. Please keep

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<v Speaker 1>me on your media list. Um. And it looks fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh the interior is probably more important, I guess than

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<v Speaker 1>the exterior. What have you got here? Yeah, So this

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<v Speaker 1>is our Lincoln Star Concept, and you know, we're commemorating

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<v Speaker 1>our hundred year anniversary and we thought what a better

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<v Speaker 1>time to really redefine the DNA of our vehicles for

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<v Speaker 1>the next hundred years. So looking at electric to your point.

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<v Speaker 1>The interior is super important for the Lincoln brand. We

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<v Speaker 1>always try to create that as sanctuary experience. So with

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<v Speaker 1>the extra space that we have, we're able to have

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<v Speaker 1>that front trunk, We're able to have a great exterior trunk,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're able to do incredible things uh in the

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<v Speaker 1>inside with a coast to coast screen UM with the

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<v Speaker 1>lounge seats and create a real third space for our clients.

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<v Speaker 1>But the exterior is also very important to clients. And

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<v Speaker 1>you'll see the new face of Lincoln UM and the

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<v Speaker 1>vision that we have for that as we moved to

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<v Speaker 1>e v S on this vehicle. You can see the

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<v Speaker 1>backlit lighting, the star that's uh behind the glass UM.

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<v Speaker 1>You can see the sleek design aerodynamic good for efficiency

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<v Speaker 1>and range UM and into the sleekness of the side

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<v Speaker 1>panels as well. Hey Joy, just so just broadly defined

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<v Speaker 1>thirty seconds here, How quickly is the Ford Motor Company

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<v Speaker 1>Lincoln Motor Company going to go electric? So we are

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<v Speaker 1>going to have three fully electric vehicles by and we'll

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<v Speaker 1>have a fourth in and that's all part of the

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<v Speaker 1>Ford plus plan where we'll be producing more than two

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<v Speaker 1>million vehicles globally at Ford in that's some big stuff there.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you know, once he's folks in Detroit got

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<v Speaker 1>into the ev story. They're moving aggressively, joyful Otico President

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<v Speaker 1>CMO of the Lincoln Motor Company. All right, our Federal

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<v Speaker 1>Reserve is in fact beginning to raise interest rates. I

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<v Speaker 1>guess the question investors have at this point is how much,

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<v Speaker 1>how quickly, and over what time frame. Let's bringing on

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<v Speaker 1>an expert to maybe get some thoughts there on this

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<v Speaker 1>area of the market. Kristoff Lash, President and c I

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<v Speaker 1>O of Harbor Capital Advisors. So, kristof the US Federal

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<v Speaker 1>Reserve has begun raising rates. How do you think the

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<v Speaker 1>path will look for this feeder reserve over the course

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. Hi, thanks for having me. So, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's important to start at the top, that we

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<v Speaker 1>have an economy now that is overheating and it's clearly

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<v Speaker 1>too strong. Um. We've now got a FED that is

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<v Speaker 1>playing catch up, and it's trying to take some momentum um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, out of the growth by tightening financial conditions,

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<v Speaker 1>which obviously done up rates with the lack. So, I

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<v Speaker 1>think the combination of today's overheating economy and typing the

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<v Speaker 1>financial conditions will eventually translate into a slowing economy. But

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<v Speaker 1>how do we get there? I think, Um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>what's important to understand is this is not our father's Fed.

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<v Speaker 1>This FED tightening cycle we think is going to be

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<v Speaker 1>a sprint and not a marathon. So we think it's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be pretty abrupt, um compared to certainly previous

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<v Speaker 1>tightening cycles. Sorry, do they do they remain on this

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<v Speaker 1>tightening path until they break the back of inflation? Is

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<v Speaker 1>this a FED that is hell bent on turning inflation around,

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<v Speaker 1>even at the risk of, um, you know, a recession

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<v Speaker 1>or even a market crash. Yes, So I think, look

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<v Speaker 1>that this is a different FED than what we've had

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<v Speaker 1>to contend with over the last couple of decades. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>the market's change, it's very different. You look at the

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<v Speaker 1>FED jewel mandate of in full employment and price stability.

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<v Speaker 1>We think they're worry about price stability. So we think

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<v Speaker 1>they're not only going to talk tough on inflation, we

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<v Speaker 1>think they're going to beat us on inflation. Um. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>you saw saw Billard come out a couple of days ago,

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<v Speaker 1>even talking about seventy five basis points at the next meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't think it will be that, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>that's just indicative of how worried they are about inflation,

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<v Speaker 1>and we think it would be a mistake to underestimate

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<v Speaker 1>their resolve in tackling this this year. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve has a credibility problem? I think they

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<v Speaker 1>had a big credibility problem a few months ago. I

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<v Speaker 1>think when PAL finally retired the term transitory at the

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<v Speaker 1>end of November. You know, they were very, very late,

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<v Speaker 1>and then the market was worried that they weren't taking

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<v Speaker 1>inflation seriously, which is in part why we think they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to be so tough, because they are

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<v Speaker 1>in the midst of wrestling back credibility. Yeah, it does

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<v Speaker 1>seem like now the markets by that they're willing to

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<v Speaker 1>do whatever it takes in a sense to fight inflation.

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<v Speaker 1>As long as that's the case, I mean, if everyone

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<v Speaker 1>believes them, they won't have to do too much. Right, So,

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<v Speaker 1>what's your expectation for the terminal rate? So I think

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<v Speaker 1>the with regards to the FED tightening, we think the

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<v Speaker 1>terminal rate will probably fall out somewhere in the freeze.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you think about where we've we've already tightened significantly,

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<v Speaker 1>So the markets, as you said, believe what the FED

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<v Speaker 1>has been has been saying, and we've seen a significant

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<v Speaker 1>tightening in financial conditions. You know, we look at various

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<v Speaker 1>indicators of financial conditions and we actually see that they've

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<v Speaker 1>tightened already. I think today's mortgage rates coming in at

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<v Speaker 1>five point one A is a great example of how

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<v Speaker 1>quickly financial conditions have tightened. So given that backdrop, Christoph,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you positioning your portfolio? What are you telling

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<v Speaker 1>your clients? So at the moment, I think the the

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<v Speaker 1>asset class that people are under allocated to the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of forgotten asset classes commodities. We all talk about sixty

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<v Speaker 1>investing across equities and bonds, but we think right now

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<v Speaker 1>is prime for a diversified approach to commodities in client

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<v Speaker 1>portfolios at this point of the cycle, when it is overheating,

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<v Speaker 1>tends to be when commodities do best. When inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>running hot above three percent as it is today, tends

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<v Speaker 1>to be when commodities do best, and they offer great

0:11:31.679 --> 0:11:35.920
<v Speaker 1>diversification benefits from from equities and figs income. And we

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<v Speaker 1>just think that's an asset class that have been largely

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<v Speaker 1>ignored over the past decade. Obviously not the past couple

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<v Speaker 1>of months, right, I mean, hasn't that ship sailed at

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<v Speaker 1>this point? I'd only get sailed. No, far from it. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I think the the issue with inflation is

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<v Speaker 1>their cyclical and structural dynamics at play here and coming

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<v Speaker 1>into this year before obviously the tragic situation and in Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the commodities markets were already very tight um

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<v Speaker 1>suffered from a lack of investment, and we were already

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<v Speaker 1>looking at coming into a squeezing commodity prices that's now

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<v Speaker 1>been exacerbated by what's happened. So we don't think that

0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:19.000
<v Speaker 1>commodities are sort of done here. We think this is

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<v Speaker 1>earlier innings, and we think the old two percent world

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<v Speaker 1>of inflation that we used to live in is a

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<v Speaker 1>thing in the past, and there are plenty of drivers

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<v Speaker 1>of structural inflation now, such as deglobalization, decarbonization, energy security,

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<v Speaker 1>and things like that. So one of the commodities obviously

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<v Speaker 1>that I guess people's attention is crude oil. Brent crude

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<v Speaker 1>still and well north of a hundred dollars of barrel.

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<v Speaker 1>You still think there's room to go there? Yeah, absolutely, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we think the risk at the moment to

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<v Speaker 1>Brent is certainly to the upside. Um. Look, there's there's

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<v Speaker 1>been a lot of financial market disruption in the commodity space,

0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:03.920
<v Speaker 1>um so the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But what we're

0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:08.160
<v Speaker 1>yet to see are the physical disruptions. You know, a

0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:11.600
<v Speaker 1>Chelo jewel of energy is not fungible, and even individual

0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 1>UM commodities are not fungible when you try and reconfigure um.

0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:20.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, whether it was Russian oil and gas typically

0:13:20.160 --> 0:13:22.720
<v Speaker 1>shipped to Europe is now on its way to the

0:13:22.720 --> 0:13:25.920
<v Speaker 1>Far East, as we saw with COVID. That causes all

0:13:25.960 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 1>sorts of supply chain headaches, which is ultimately inflationary. All right, Christoph,

0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:33.319
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for sharing some of your time.

0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:37.160
<v Speaker 1>We appreciate getting your insights. Kristoph Glaish, president and ce

0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:41.600
<v Speaker 1>IO of Harbor Capital Advisors, giving us his thoughts and markets,

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.640
<v Speaker 1>and he's suggesting, hey, folks, take a look at commodities.

0:13:44.720 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 1>There's more room to go. David Coodla, founder, CEO and

0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 1>c i O of Mainstake Capital Management joins is here. David,

0:13:57.840 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>we've got rising interest rates. Um. You know, the question

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.640
<v Speaker 1>is how fast, how how much? How do you position

0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.600
<v Speaker 1>your portfolio for an environment that we haven't seen in

0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:13.400
<v Speaker 1>quite sometime. You know, Good morning, Matt and Paul. And

0:14:13.440 --> 0:14:15.760
<v Speaker 1>that is UH, that's a very good question. I think

0:14:15.800 --> 0:14:18.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot of investors are asking themselves because if you

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.840
<v Speaker 1>look at the U sixty forty that that classic six

0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:26.880
<v Speaker 1>mix this year as an investor or anything around that

0:14:26.880 --> 0:14:30.280
<v Speaker 1>that it has you know, stocks of the S and

0:14:30.320 --> 0:14:34.200
<v Speaker 1>P five hundreds, some stocks of the NASDAC UH and

0:14:34.640 --> 0:14:39.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, look at the US aggregate US aggregate bond index,

0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:44.880
<v Speaker 1>you're pushing a negative ten percent return or close to

0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:46.720
<v Speaker 1>that or a little bit more depending on your mix

0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:51.120
<v Speaker 1>of stocks. With the US aggregate bond index down over

0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>nine this year, you know, we we we know the statistics,

0:14:54.280 --> 0:14:56.920
<v Speaker 1>it would be the worst year on record. So UM,

0:14:57.000 --> 0:15:00.400
<v Speaker 1>we're tactical asset allocators at mainstake Capital Management it so

0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.680
<v Speaker 1>we have been in the first part of this year,

0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:08.000
<v Speaker 1>we have been short bonds and that specifically treasuries, high

0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.480
<v Speaker 1>grade corporates that are very interest rate sensitive. I think

0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:14.480
<v Speaker 1>that was prudent with what we know is coming from

0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.560
<v Speaker 1>the FAT and we've seen all along the curve from

0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.840
<v Speaker 1>tunes to tens anticipate that. UH. And in stocks. You know,

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:25.800
<v Speaker 1>we're we're in, We're long commodities were significantly overweight commodities

0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:27.920
<v Speaker 1>most we've ever been in the history of the firm,

0:15:27.960 --> 0:15:31.440
<v Speaker 1>and then in stocks were picking our places. At what point, uh,

0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.160
<v Speaker 1>David time, we've heard commodities today day, Yeah, we have.

0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:36.280
<v Speaker 1>And I'm gonna ask David the same question that I

0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:40.400
<v Speaker 1>just asked a few minutes ago, um, in a different way,

0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:45.040
<v Speaker 1>because Okay, you've you've made the right bets and you've

0:15:45.080 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 1>profited on that. At what point do you take some

0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.760
<v Speaker 1>money off the table, Because now everyone is saying get

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.880
<v Speaker 1>into commodities, And at that point I start to ask myself,

0:15:56.000 --> 0:16:01.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, um, is the trade over? Yeah, And I've

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you've mentioned before my presence on Twitter and I've you know,

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 1>tease controlled but tease some some of the people talking

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:11.400
<v Speaker 1>about commodities. Now it's like, good call, but you're a

0:16:11.440 --> 0:16:13.520
<v Speaker 1>little bit late to the game. And that's you know,

0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:15.720
<v Speaker 1>commodities has been a good play for a year, but

0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:17.960
<v Speaker 1>especially this last you know, for you know, four or

0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:21.480
<v Speaker 1>five months, it's been incredible. We had all the reasons

0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.760
<v Speaker 1>for coming into that space that was heightened by Ukraine,

0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 1>UH and COVID lockdowns in China. We've seen the Ukraine

0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.920
<v Speaker 1>premium get built in and taken back out, but we

0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:36.160
<v Speaker 1>think the fundamentals are still there for commodities to go

0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:38.640
<v Speaker 1>and none at the rate they have been maybe in

0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.800
<v Speaker 1>the first four four and a half. But you know,

0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:43.840
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the environment we're in, we're an

0:16:43.840 --> 0:16:48.560
<v Speaker 1>inflationary environment for a while. Here we have the some

0:16:48.680 --> 0:16:53.040
<v Speaker 1>of the elements of nineteen seventies nineteen seventy styles stag inflation.

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.400
<v Speaker 1>But if you look back in the nineteen seventies when

0:16:55.400 --> 0:16:58.160
<v Speaker 1>inflation was running, you know at a very high rate,

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:02.840
<v Speaker 1>what asset class did the best during that time frame,

0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:05.959
<v Speaker 1>and it was it was commodities. Now, the short treasuries,

0:17:06.000 --> 0:17:08.160
<v Speaker 1>we're going to be scaling that back because we've seen

0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 1>a lot of that get built in already. And I

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:13.040
<v Speaker 1>think we're gonna see, you know, interest rates more leveling out,

0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:15.119
<v Speaker 1>maybe some more risk to the upside. It's certainly not

0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:19.480
<v Speaker 1>the run up we've had since December. Do you are

0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>you in the camp that has you know, a reasonable

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:25.040
<v Speaker 1>concern that this field reserve is going to move too quickly,

0:17:25.920 --> 0:17:29.440
<v Speaker 1>too much and in fact push this economy not into

0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:34.520
<v Speaker 1>a slowing growth rate but into actual recession. Yeah, that

0:17:34.640 --> 0:17:38.439
<v Speaker 1>is that is our fear. And you know, if I

0:17:38.480 --> 0:17:40.160
<v Speaker 1>had to put odds on it right now, I'd say

0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:43.960
<v Speaker 1>it's maybe still fifty fifty. But it depends on um

0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:46.440
<v Speaker 1>how they actually execute. I mean, if if you look

0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:49.320
<v Speaker 1>at how far behind the curve they are, and maybe

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>how slow and deliberate we're gonna hear from Jerome Pile

0:17:52.440 --> 0:17:55.080
<v Speaker 1>later today, but how slow and deliberate you know they've been.

0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.800
<v Speaker 1>They literally let qt every time of sorry q E

0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 1>run right to the first rate hike in the first

0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.200
<v Speaker 1>week of March. They were still buying four point one

0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.600
<v Speaker 1>billion and and UH and assets and it ran literally

0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:08.920
<v Speaker 1>and right up to the meeting, and it was a

0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:12.680
<v Speaker 1>quick pivot to qt UH And now we're talking about

0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:17.639
<v Speaker 1>fifty basis point rate rate hikes. And with Bullard, maybe

0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:20.600
<v Speaker 1>we've got a couple in there. And so when they

0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:23.560
<v Speaker 1>moved that far that fast, that's when we're concerned about

0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:27.000
<v Speaker 1>them breaking something. We had, you know, portions of the

0:18:27.080 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 1>yield curve and inverting earlier, you know, several weeks ago,

0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:35.120
<v Speaker 1>and and that's you know, there are some historical presence there,

0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:38.680
<v Speaker 1>but aside from that, it's it's just that they could

0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:41.880
<v Speaker 1>move far enough and fast enough that they could lead

0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:45.199
<v Speaker 1>us into session or a meaningful slowdown. Right now. You know,

0:18:45.400 --> 0:18:48.760
<v Speaker 1>things still look good. Corporate profits are coming in very

0:18:48.760 --> 0:18:52.360
<v Speaker 1>well for the first quarter. Economy still coming along, but

0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:54.800
<v Speaker 1>there's concerns. We get the second part of are really

0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:58.679
<v Speaker 1>into David, you're the founder sponsor of Engage, which is

0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.399
<v Speaker 1>the world's largest student stock competition and conference at the

0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:04.200
<v Speaker 1>University of Michigan. Are we having one of those this year?

0:19:04.240 --> 0:19:06.440
<v Speaker 1>He's gonna be in person? Give us what's the status?

0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:11.520
<v Speaker 1>It's virtual. We're still trying to be uh, you know,

0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:15.800
<v Speaker 1>respect for you know, the concerns about the ongoing COVID

0:19:15.800 --> 0:19:19.480
<v Speaker 1>issue and so virtual again, virtual last year, Virtual again

0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:21.439
<v Speaker 1>this year. But we will certainly be back to an

0:19:21.440 --> 0:19:24.399
<v Speaker 1>in person conference next year, which I like for students

0:19:24.480 --> 0:19:27.600
<v Speaker 1>so that when we bring in all these professionals, they

0:19:27.600 --> 0:19:30.040
<v Speaker 1>have a chance to interact with them and network with

0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:32.560
<v Speaker 1>them one on one. Yep, that's some great stuff, David,

0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:34.760
<v Speaker 1>that you do there with that conference again at the

0:19:34.840 --> 0:19:39.359
<v Speaker 1>University of Michigan. David Coudlaf founder CEO c i O

0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:45.960
<v Speaker 1>of Mainstay Capital Management Grand Blanc Michigan. But he got

0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 1>his master's degree at Stanford. Yeah, uh so, it's good

0:19:49.320 --> 0:19:51.520
<v Speaker 1>stuff that, but that the Engage Conference is really good.

0:19:51.520 --> 0:19:53.959
<v Speaker 1>I know a lot of schools participate that and they

0:19:54.000 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>get some real good experience in terms of the markets

0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:59.320
<v Speaker 1>and investing, and they get to interact with a lot

0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:01.520
<v Speaker 1>of profess sational investors. So there are some good things

0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:04.119
<v Speaker 1>to do in an harbor. Sure, absolutely go see a

0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:08.520
<v Speaker 1>football game. Speaking from the man from the great state

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:13.960
<v Speaker 1>of Ohio here, thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:17.560
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts

0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:21.600
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

0:20:21.600 --> 0:20:25.639
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Matt Miller three pt on Fall Sweeney

0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You

0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:30.720
<v Speaker 1>can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.