1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Bramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,840 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether you're at the grocery store 5 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m L 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot Com. I'm 7 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: Lisa bram woids Enjoining me here in the Bloomberg Interactive 8 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: Broker Studios is Paul Sweeney, head of North American Research 9 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Intelligence. A lot of focus on China because 10 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 1: even though there is this trade tension between the US 11 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,599 Speaker 1: and China, perhaps the real story is the slowing Chinese economy. 12 00:00:51,960 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: And joining us now to really talk about that is 13 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: George Magnus, associate that China Center at Oxford University, former 14 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: chief economist of U B a US. George, I want 15 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,720 Speaker 1: to start with that. With the retail sales and the 16 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,720 Speaker 1: other data that we got overnight out of China, not 17 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:09,680 Speaker 1: great came coming in below estimates and showing a cool 18 00:01:09,760 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: down even with additional stimulus from the government. Yeah, it's 19 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:18,479 Speaker 1: um it's a conundrum that's been playing out really for 20 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,040 Speaker 1: pretty much all year to be honestly. So, um, you know, 21 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,840 Speaker 1: some of the regular monthly numbers, like the ones we 22 00:01:25,920 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: had today that show retail sales really I mean not 23 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:31,480 Speaker 1: I would say kind of falling off the edge of 24 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: the cliff, but certainly quite weak. And car sales in 25 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: China have been dropping year over year for the last 26 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: five or six months, which is quite unusual. M The 27 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: monthly data which released which came out today for investment 28 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 1: spending for November is at its lowest levels really in 29 00:01:50,800 --> 00:01:54,440 Speaker 1: terms of growth since two thousand and three. The property 30 00:01:54,520 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: market is showing kind of mixed signals, but a lot 31 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: of the indicators that will watch about how much floor 32 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: space is being started and how much construction is going 33 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 1: on are starting to roll over. So yeah, I mean 34 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: this is um, it's becoming quite serious actually because the 35 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: official rhetoric is changing as well about stimulus, and I 36 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: think that's something we're going to watch quite closely over 37 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,400 Speaker 1: the next few weeks. Switching gearge George, a little bit 38 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: to trade. Aside from the immediate political fallout from the 39 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,720 Speaker 1: Huawei arrest for US and China, how material is this 40 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 1: incident do you believe to us China trade relationship as 41 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: tenures as it may be. How you mean the arrest, Yes, yeah, 42 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:46,800 Speaker 1: well so far. I think from the Chinese perspective, I 43 00:02:46,840 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: think they are trying to kind of twin track this, 44 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: which is uh, you know, just to to certainly tell 45 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 1: the Canadians in no uncertain terms what they think about 46 00:02:57,320 --> 00:03:00,160 Speaker 1: what's just happened. I mean, I think it's interesting at 47 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: their anger has been focused on Canada rather than the 48 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: United States, but they're not very happy about it, as 49 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: you know. And they've also kind of detained two Canadian citizens, 50 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,519 Speaker 1: which looks like a kind of tip for tat kind 51 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: of measure. But at the same time, um, it's interesting 52 00:03:19,919 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: that they don't really want this trade truce to blow up. 53 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:29,360 Speaker 1: They have certainly been taking a lot of care to 54 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 1: try to keep it on track. So their imports of 55 00:03:32,919 --> 00:03:36,280 Speaker 1: American sawyer beans and liquefied natural gas have already kind 56 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:41,360 Speaker 1: of risen. They've made kind of this offer, which I 57 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: think you've covered in your news package about cutting the 58 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:47,720 Speaker 1: punitive tariff on American automobile imports back to where it 59 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 1: was before. And there are other things going on very 60 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: very importantly actually with their industrial strategy called made in China, 61 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: which we may hear a lot more out over the 62 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: next few days and weeks, which which may have substance, 63 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: it may just be optics, but they certainly want to 64 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 1: try to twin track this, and I don't think the 65 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: arrest of the Huawei kind of CFO is going to 66 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: do well that trade talks for the moment at least, 67 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: you know, Georgia, I kind of want to pair these 68 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: two ideas of the slowing Chinese economy and some of 69 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: the trade tensions. Do you think that all of the 70 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 1: headlines about trade negotiations between US and China are masking 71 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 1: the bigger story of China's economy and the failure of 72 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:38,560 Speaker 1: stimulus to increase growth more well, I think it's um. 73 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: I just think it's in a way, it's a bit 74 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:43,719 Speaker 1: of an accident, because I think if, if, let's say, 75 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 1: you know, the the tension between the United States and 76 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,520 Speaker 1: China had broken out last year rather than this year, 77 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:53,919 Speaker 1: then you know, we wouldn't really at that point, we 78 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: wouldn't really have been talking about the Chinese economy very much, 79 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: because it was it was still kind of responding to 80 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: the kind of stimulus that had previously still been in 81 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: the system, but it has all come together in a 82 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 1: very untimely way from Beijing's perspective. So the trade the 83 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 1: impact of the trade tariffs up until now has not 84 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 1: really been that significant in terms of kind of economic growth, 85 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:24,039 Speaker 1: and what it has done has been offset really by 86 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: some of the incremental changes which have taken place in 87 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:32,279 Speaker 1: Chinese monetary policy. But this is why the truth is 88 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: really so valuable to them, because had the tariffs gone 89 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: up from ten to twenty five on the first of January, 90 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: and if President Trump had extended, as he had threatened 91 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: to do, the punitive tariffs to the other half of 92 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: the goods which America imports from China, then by the 93 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,839 Speaker 1: end of two thousand nineteen and certainly in two thousand 94 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,880 Speaker 1: and twenty, we would certainly have seen a much more 95 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: marked impact on what is already a slowing economy. So 96 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:04,280 Speaker 1: for China it's an aggravation which they don't really need 97 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: and which I think this is why Seeging being probably 98 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: would like to reach some kind of accord if he can, so. 99 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,279 Speaker 1: George just to follow up on that, so I guess 100 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:17,840 Speaker 1: you you talked about a twin track approach to the 101 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: Huawei incident and others, And so how incentivized do you 102 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: believe China is to negotiate meaningful trade agreements in this 103 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: environment where you know, President Trump has really ratcheted up 104 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 1: the rhetoric are pretty significantly. Yeah, well, I mean this 105 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: is a moving fast him. I think we're not quite 106 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:40,080 Speaker 1: sure actually which way this is a game. Because the 107 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: latest kind of thing that I think China watches are 108 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: kind of focused on is really the suggestion, that's all 109 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 1: it is at this point, but the suggestion that the 110 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: Made in China Industrial Policy, which has been the long 111 00:06:56,080 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: running store for American businesses in China and European for matter, 112 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: but also for the White House, that there may be 113 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: some flexibility in the China's approach to branding and well 114 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:14,440 Speaker 1: implementing the policy. Having said that, if it's just a 115 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:19,040 Speaker 1: question of changing the branding and kind of reformulating the 116 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: strategy that makes it look less threatening, I don't think 117 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 1: that what will be fooled for one minute. Um, But 118 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: if there is some substance in it, and President Seizing 119 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:33,680 Speaker 1: things certainly has been minded to respond to criticism at 120 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 1: home rather than abroad for his approach here to industrial policy, 121 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: then there may be some meat on this. You know, 122 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:46,559 Speaker 1: there may be reasons to expect this trade, these trade 123 00:07:46,600 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 1: talks to actually end up at least partially successful, but 124 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: it's early days. I wouldn't I certainly wouldn't want to 125 00:07:53,400 --> 00:07:55,560 Speaker 1: be drawn on this myself. I mean, I remain rather 126 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:59,720 Speaker 1: skeptical that that president seizing thing as a closet reformer 127 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: and to kind of change China's technological ambitions. But anyway, 128 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:08,120 Speaker 1: we shall see before long how this evolves. George Magnus, 129 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: and we will have you back on to discuss it. 130 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 1: George Magnus, economist and associate at the China Center at 131 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: Oxford University, formerly chief economist at UBS. Talking of China 132 00:08:19,920 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: and the data that we got out overnight that showed 133 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: a weakening economy as well as trade. In order to 134 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 1: get some more insight on what Michael Cohen's allegations as 135 00:08:44,280 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: well as some of President Trump's responses mean for the president, 136 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: I want to bring a Noah Feldman, Professor of law 137 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,320 Speaker 1: at Harvard University, also a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Noah, thank 138 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: you so much for being with us. You wrote a 139 00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: really interesting column analyzing some of President Trump's recent responses. 140 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: To this interview. Can you just lay out what your 141 00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:08,960 Speaker 1: main point was there. Sure, President Trump often tweets stream 142 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 1: of consciousness, but yesterday was not one of those days. 143 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 1: His tweet, which sounds a lot like he was written 144 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 1: with a lawyer at his shoulder, laid out three defenses 145 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: that he has to offer to the charge that he 146 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: is guilty of the felony because he directed Michael Cohen 147 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: to commit a felony of campaign finance violations. No. Uh. 148 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: First of all, thank you so much for writing this column, 149 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: because I find myself I often need help parsing the 150 00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: President's tweets and and this column was a big help 151 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: in parsing this morning's um tweets from the president. Can 152 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: you summarize kind of what his defense you think, the 153 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:43,680 Speaker 1: defense that he is laying out in these tweets, and 154 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: how they, um, you know, kind of really relate to 155 00:09:46,800 --> 00:09:50,800 Speaker 1: what Michael Cohen is saying. Sure, basically what the President 156 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: saying is first of all, Michael Cohen was my lawyer, 157 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,439 Speaker 1: and I told my lawyer to pay off Stormy Daniels, 158 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: and that was legal. It was okay to tell him 159 00:09:58,559 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: to do that. It's the way he did at the 160 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: was illegal. And what did I know about that he 161 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 1: was my lawyer and I expected him to do it legally, 162 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: So I may have directed him to pay her off, 163 00:10:06,640 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 1: but that shouldn't consider the crime on my side. His 164 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,760 Speaker 1: second defense is if it was a crime, if it 165 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:14,840 Speaker 1: was a violation of camping and finance violation, it wasn't 166 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 1: a severe one. And if it wasn't a severe one, 167 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: it should be treated as a civil violation. That is 168 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:21,000 Speaker 1: to say, you pay a fine, but you don't go 169 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 1: to prison, not as a criminal one. And his third 170 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: and final, and admittedly a little bit desperate claim is 171 00:10:28,640 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: that even though Michael Cohen fled guilty to it being 172 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: a crime, Cohen only did that as part of a 173 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:35,839 Speaker 1: deal with prosecutors and he didn't get any extra jail 174 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 1: time for that, according to Trump, and therefore that shouldn't 175 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:42,200 Speaker 1: be weighed as significant in deciding with the president when 176 00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 1: he leads office should be charged facility. Now, what do 177 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: you think President Trump is worried about? I mean, is 178 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: he worried about impeachment? Is he worried about prosecution? What 179 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,559 Speaker 1: is this? What is this responding? I really don't think 180 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,839 Speaker 1: he's worried right now about impeachment in connection with this 181 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: stormy Daniels pay out. I think he believes, and there 182 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 1: seems to be evidence for this, that his base is 183 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: continuing to support him and the unlikely to be removed 184 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: by the Senate or even impeached by the House for this. 185 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: What he is worried about, and what he should be 186 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 1: worried about, and what his lawyers must be worried about, 187 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 1: is it once he's out of office, you know whether 188 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:16,040 Speaker 1: in twenty five that he's vulnerable to a criminal prosecution 189 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 1: not brought by Bob Mueller, but bought by the Southern 190 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: District of New York. Because the usual practice is if 191 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: they get so much aslee guilty to a felony and 192 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: that person says I did that the behest of the 193 00:11:25,120 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 1: higher up, they then go after the higher up, and 194 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 1: he's the higher up according to Michael Cohen. Now you know, 195 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,240 Speaker 1: I couldn't find it. I found it. You know, not 196 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 1: coincidental that the day that Michael Cohen um pled guilty 197 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 1: that the National Enquirer and his parent company, American Media, 198 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 1: acknowledged paying off playboy model U Karen McDougall. How significant 199 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 1: is that piece of news as it relates to the 200 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: President and his legal exposure? Here I think it's actually 201 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: pretty important because what it does is it provides independent 202 00:11:57,400 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: verification of what Cohen said. In the past. It was 203 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 1: possible for Trump to say, well, Michael Cohen's a liar, 204 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 1: this this never happened. But here you have independent sources, 205 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 1: the directors of the parent company of the National Enquirer, 206 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:13,000 Speaker 1: who were saying, we also engaged in a parallel, illegal 207 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 1: campaign finance violation arrangement to pay off McDougal. And so 208 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,000 Speaker 1: that means that it's not all about coming now. It's 209 00:12:20,040 --> 00:12:24,080 Speaker 1: also about another set of witnesses who can testify that 210 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 1: the president was directly involved in the campaign fence fience violation. 211 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 1: That counts as a selony. Professor Elman, I gotta be honest. 212 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: When I talked to a lot of market participants, they say, 213 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,800 Speaker 1: we're growing numb to the president Trump news and or 214 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,719 Speaker 1: to everything that's coming out. It comes fast and furious 215 00:12:38,760 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: and more sensational, and we just don't care because the 216 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 1: economy is doing just fine. So I'm just wondering, is 217 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 1: this different or is this just more pile on that's 218 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 1: not going to really essentially amount to anything with respect 219 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 1: to his presidency or anything else. Well, it depends on 220 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: whether you think that a president who seriously realizes that 221 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,440 Speaker 1: he may face criminal indict is going to govern differently. 222 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,200 Speaker 1: And my own view is that, although it's not the 223 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:07,640 Speaker 1: easiest thing to quantify, a president who's walking around thinking 224 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: that prosecutors are going to charge in the day you 225 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: leaves office is going to be effected in how he 226 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: does things. He's going to have to be more cautious 227 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: on a range of things. He's gonna have to be 228 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:19,360 Speaker 1: more focused on protecting himself. He may be tempted to 229 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: use the part in power in ways that create backlash. 230 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: So you know, I understand the sense of, oh, my goodness, 231 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:29,640 Speaker 1: not another story, and that's an understandable sensation, But from 232 00:13:29,640 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 1: the standpoint of the future of the Republican in the 233 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 1: next two or two and a half years, I think 234 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,680 Speaker 1: this is actually pretty significant. Real quickly, professor, what do 235 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: you think prosecutors will do here at this defense that 236 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: you kind of summarized here um is incredible, and what 237 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:46,200 Speaker 1: do you think prosecutors ultimately do well? I think as 238 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: a legal defense, what the president suggests me is not 239 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,200 Speaker 1: especially credible. I don't think he would save him from 240 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: being convicted. What's interesting is whether it would lead prosecutors 241 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:56,839 Speaker 1: to say, well, you know what, we're not going to 242 00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 1: go after him criminally. We'll just try to hit him 243 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:01,079 Speaker 1: with a civil ye lation. And I think a lot 244 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 1: of that would depend on who was the president and 245 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 1: who was running the Department of Justice after his presence 246 00:14:06,280 --> 00:14:09,280 Speaker 1: he was over. You can easily imagine a Democrat saying, 247 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:11,560 Speaker 1: you know, let's who's become president thing, let's put this 248 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:14,319 Speaker 1: to bed. Let's see if there's any reasonable way we 249 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,320 Speaker 1: can avoid charging a president with a crime. And in 250 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 1: those circumstances, they would probably get away with it. Noah Feldman, 251 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. Noah Feldman, 252 00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:25,160 Speaker 1: Professor of Law at Harvard University, also a Bloomberg Opinion calumnist, 253 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: speaking to myself and Paul Sweeney filling in for Pim Fox. 254 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 1: Paul Sweeney, head of North American Research for Bloomberg Intelligence. 255 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: Joined by Paul Sweeney filling in for Pim Fox. Paul Sweeney, 256 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:52,120 Speaker 1: of course, is the head of North American Research at 257 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. And we were just speaking with a futurist 258 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: for the car industry. Let's now speak to a futurist 259 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: for the fixed income industry. Kathleen Gaffney, who I'm sure 260 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: it is so excited to look into her crystal ball 261 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 1: for us CO, director of Diversified Fixed Income at Eaton Vans, 262 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: overseeing helping to oversee four billion dollars of assets and 263 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: based in Boston. She joins US here in eleven three studios. So, Kathleen, 264 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 1: for next year, we saw a pretty rough year this 265 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 1: year for investment grade, credit, great year for cash. Next year, 266 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 1: what will be the best performer and what will be 267 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,600 Speaker 1: the worst performer? And credit? We'll pull out that crystal ball. 268 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:30,240 Speaker 1: Come on, you can do it. It's getting it's getting 269 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: a lot trickier right now. But I do think that 270 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 1: the most important lever in fixed income for next year 271 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:43,320 Speaker 1: is going to be, uh, the dollar a week dollar 272 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: and the currencies that perform better relative will be what 273 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:53,440 Speaker 1: saves performance for the year. So as you think about 274 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 1: let's let's bring the FED into this, I mean, what 275 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: is your outlook for rates? And maybe you know give 276 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: us your out look for if you want to go 277 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 1: that far, how about I did say futurist um. There 278 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: you go. I think obviously rates are going to go higher. 279 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: But what's getting tricky right now is the amount of 280 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: uncertainty that's weighing on the market makes that a very 281 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: difficult call. Uh, they should move up a little bit, 282 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: but given the amount of uncertainty, I'm less certain that 283 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: there's going to be a big move. Um. A weaker 284 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: dollar is going to be a big part of keeping 285 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,600 Speaker 1: growth going. I think that's what the FED has really 286 00:16:40,600 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: been focused on. So in week dollar that means emerging 287 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 1: markets out before. I mean, that's sort of the implication here, 288 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering how does that play into the 289 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 1: global economic slowdown that we're seeing, Because usually e M 290 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 1: gets the flu when developed markets get a cold, and 291 00:16:55,880 --> 00:16:57,560 Speaker 1: it seems like develop markets are getting a little bit 292 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 1: of a cold. They definitely are, but I think there's 293 00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: much too much pessimism out there. It feels a little 294 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: bit like once again, um really yeah really, but like 295 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,200 Speaker 1: this time around is a little bit different because central 296 00:17:14,240 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: banks are actually withdrawing stimulus, they are making it less accommodative. 297 00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:24,400 Speaker 1: It's still a very low interest rate environment, and if 298 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,240 Speaker 1: they're not going to move up quickly, there's just enough 299 00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: to go around. China UH is definitely slowing and that's 300 00:17:33,400 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 1: impacting the trade tensions in probably a positive way, at 301 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 1: least in the short term. That's what I mean about tricky. 302 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: Everything in the short term is different for the long term. Uh. 303 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: And there are enough things that are causing a slow down, 304 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:55,439 Speaker 1: but enough things that will keep everything just right. But 305 00:17:55,560 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: you still don't have enough value in the fixed income 306 00:18:00,800 --> 00:18:04,880 Speaker 1: markets in the developed world, rates, the rate markets and 307 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: credit are still not cheap enough, and they may not 308 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,720 Speaker 1: cheapen up and up enough. But if the economy is 309 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 1: going to keep going, and if the central banks are 310 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: more dovish right now, that's what will weaken the dollar 311 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 1: and that will get things going again. So you mentioned 312 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:28,240 Speaker 1: the markets being tricky. Does that mean volatile because the 313 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: volatility this market, I know has been unnerving for many 314 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: What is your expectation for the level of volatility in 315 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:36,879 Speaker 1: this market as we look into next year. It's going 316 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: to continue to be high. I I believe that the 317 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: hardest part of transitioning from a secular decline to a 318 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:49,679 Speaker 1: secular rise is this near term getting back to normal 319 00:18:49,800 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 1: off the zero bound. Once we get through a full 320 00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 1: cycle and we're back to normal, then it becomes normal cycles. 321 00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 1: But this is going to be challenging, and a lot 322 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: of that is due to We're transitioning from monetary policy 323 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 1: to fiscal policy, and it's very difficult to read the 324 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: politicians from the developed markets to the emerging markets. It 325 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:16,840 Speaker 1: has been so almost almost easy to listen to the 326 00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,399 Speaker 1: central bankers, and it's either a risk off day or 327 00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,120 Speaker 1: a risk on day, and then you know what to do. 328 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 1: Do we take more risk or reduce risk? This is 329 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,959 Speaker 1: far trickier. Lots of different things going on all right, 330 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 1: leverage loans. We've heard a lot about the souring of 331 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 1: leverage loans. How this is armageddon. This is the epicenter 332 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 1: of everything going south. Are you seeing opportunities at this 333 00:19:39,520 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: point has been oversold or do you think that this 334 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:45,439 Speaker 1: is an area of more pain to come. I'm not 335 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: a big believer in chasing yield spread for spread sake. 336 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 1: It's all relative. I believe you want to look for 337 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: good total return. Loans have cheapened a bit with the concerns, 338 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,960 Speaker 1: but not enough. As a total return investor, I think 339 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,480 Speaker 1: they're going to be incredibly important in the years ahead 340 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: because there will be a much uh more integrated market 341 00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:14,720 Speaker 1: in high yield, between loans and high yield. I'm gonna 342 00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,159 Speaker 1: put you on the spot here, do you think the 343 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: banks are going to suffer big losses due to hung 344 00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 1: Bridge loans are basically loans that they've extended to private 345 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: equity firms for buyouts that they now have to sell 346 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:29,159 Speaker 1: into a market that's deteriorating. It is deteriorating, but not 347 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:33,880 Speaker 1: enough at this point. Um the supply demand is in balance. 348 00:20:34,200 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 1: When that shifts, the prices that are attractive for a 349 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:42,800 Speaker 1: total return investor will come back. We're not there yet. 350 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: I think we had a yeah, Earli in the show. 351 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 1: We had the CEO of a home builder, Taylor Marson, 352 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: on the show, just talking about the home market here 353 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:55,040 Speaker 1: in the US. How do you guys think about that sector? 354 00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,880 Speaker 1: You know, giving that interest rates rising a little bit? 355 00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: Are do you have any exposure there? What are you 356 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 1: looking to do? We do have some small exposure. It's 357 00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:07,880 Speaker 1: been uh challenging to find uh homebuilder credits that are 358 00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: cheap enough. Most of them are below investment grade but 359 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 1: still higher quality high yield double b um. But there 360 00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 1: are a few on on the edge of investment grade 361 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:23,240 Speaker 1: that do look attractive because they cheapened up. Was everyone 362 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: worried about rates moving higher now that they're taking a 363 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: more gradual path uh. And I believe with wages rising 364 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:37,000 Speaker 1: and that pent up demand from millennials um my own 365 00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: children is going to foster that demand. So we're comfortable 366 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: with home builders next year, which which as a class 367 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 1: will perform high yield or investment grade. It's a tough 368 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:58,639 Speaker 1: call between those two. I'm gonna say potentially high yield 369 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 1: if rates don't if rates just move up gradually because 370 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: we're not gonna get that default cycle yet, right. And 371 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 1: the pressures in investment grade with triple bees uh, create 372 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: enough idiosyncratic risk throughout the year, which will be good 373 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: pickings for just the right names. Kathleen Gaffney. Always a 374 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 1: pleasure having you. We love having you here. Kathleen Gaffney 375 00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:38,520 Speaker 1: is co director of Diversified Fixed Income four Eaton Vance. Paul, 376 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:42,960 Speaker 1: our next guest has the most amazing job title. Yeah, 377 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:46,399 Speaker 1: very cool. To be a futurist, Yeah, and to be 378 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:50,080 Speaker 1: a future setting card company, pretty amazing. Cheryl Connolly, futurist 379 00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 1: at Ford Motor Company. Cheryl, what is a futurist? So, 380 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 1: the futurist is somebody who helps an organization to long 381 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,400 Speaker 1: term planning thinking strategy so that they can get ahead 382 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 1: of the marketplace, and in the auto industry that's particularly 383 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: important because it takes about three years to come up 384 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,160 Speaker 1: with a concept and actually have it hit the road. Cheryl, 385 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: you know, it's it's interesting. I've been going to the 386 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,960 Speaker 1: Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, uh, you know, where 387 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: they highlight all the cool new technologies and gadgets for 388 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,880 Speaker 1: about thirty years, and I've noticed over the last five 389 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 1: to seven years that the electronics show has really become 390 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: an auto show where the auto companies take up about 391 00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,280 Speaker 1: half of the floor space. It's just amazing to see 392 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 1: how tech is really front and center in the car business. 393 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,160 Speaker 1: So you know, at Ford, what are the top tech 394 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,920 Speaker 1: priorities or opportunities for you guys, And you know where's 395 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 1: forward putting its money as it thinks, uh, several years out. Well, 396 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,679 Speaker 1: it's interesting that you mentioned see yes, because Ford actually 397 00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: was the first automaker to uh show there, and it 398 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: was in recognition that a car isn't just a car anymore. 399 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: It is a complex collection of computers. I mean back 400 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 1: in the day, my dad, your grandfather, like a tinker 401 00:23:54,680 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: under the hood, and how you need a computer science 402 00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: degree to do so. Um, And so that's going to 403 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 1: continue in. My job is really to look at tech 404 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 1: to the lens the consumer. And right now, people have 405 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,600 Speaker 1: concerned about tech. I mean they readily recognize technologies made 406 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,800 Speaker 1: their lives better, that it's been a force for good, 407 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 1: but there are lingering concerns about the unforeseen consequences that 408 00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,840 Speaker 1: tech might bring. So we did some research in fourteen 409 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: different countries and we spoke specifically to people of all ages. 410 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,240 Speaker 1: But in one part of the study, we found that 411 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 1: eighteen to twenty four year olds close to them worry 412 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,080 Speaker 1: that technology is trying to get inside their head. Well, 413 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 1: I mean they can give up that worry because I'll 414 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 1: just give you the answer it is. I guess the 415 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: one question I have as a car company, how do 416 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:46,199 Speaker 1: you make sure that the interface is user friendly, that 417 00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,400 Speaker 1: people can actually use all of the technology currently available. 418 00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,919 Speaker 1: Because people are talking about this high tech stuff. But 419 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 1: when I talk about people who go to car shows, 420 00:24:53,840 --> 00:24:56,400 Speaker 1: they say their main job as representatives of the car 421 00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: companies are simply to explain to people how to use 422 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:02,679 Speaker 1: their cars. Well, that is something that we really have 423 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,239 Speaker 1: to take take a lot of measure and care in 424 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:08,800 Speaker 1: terms of delivering. So we have teams that work on 425 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,400 Speaker 1: human machine interface, and we want to make everything seamless. 426 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: So when we introduced our our platform that connected Bluetooth 427 00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: technology with the entertainment system called stink Uh, we've made 428 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: sure that it was voice activated and hands free so 429 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 1: that it would be seamless. And we're increasingly using platforms 430 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:26,680 Speaker 1: that mirror the ones that were most comfortable with, So 431 00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:30,639 Speaker 1: we do UM, the Apple Car Play UM, and so 432 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,000 Speaker 1: the interface that you used to seeing on your digital 433 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,560 Speaker 1: device often mirrors what's on your dashboard. But as we 434 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:39,680 Speaker 1: go forward and when we bring more advanced technology, it's 435 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: really about making sure customers are comfortable with it. So 436 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 1: a number of people are very concerned about artificial intelligence. 437 00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 1: For instance, of men say they're afraid of it. Women 438 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:52,440 Speaker 1: agree with that statement, and if you were to ask 439 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 1: a little bit more, almost to the exact same percentage, 440 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,199 Speaker 1: men and women say they don't understand artificial intelligence. And 441 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 1: so for twenty nine we have the Ford Edge, which 442 00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:06,199 Speaker 1: uses AI to look at the vehicle's powertrain. But if 443 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:08,640 Speaker 1: you break it down and explain to the driver, basically 444 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: all that means is that we have sensors around the 445 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: vehicle that are evaluating the driving road conditions. We have 446 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:17,320 Speaker 1: software and algorithms that work together to make a decision 447 00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:19,560 Speaker 1: about whether the vehicle should be in two wheel drive 448 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: or all wheel drive. And that's all it is. So 449 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,719 Speaker 1: you have to demystify what artificial intelligence is so that 450 00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: you make sure people are comfortable using the technology, Cheryl, 451 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,120 Speaker 1: self driving cars? What is Ford saying about the self 452 00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,479 Speaker 1: driving car? Are we going to see it? When are 453 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 1: we going to go? When are we going to see it? 454 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,879 Speaker 1: Is that? Is that something that's going to be in 455 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:44,680 Speaker 1: the near term? Yes, yes, yes, and yes, Ford will 456 00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,679 Speaker 1: have self driving vehicles on the road. But to be 457 00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:51,439 Speaker 1: very clear about that, uh, self driving vehicles will be 458 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: available and limited capacity, probably for commercial application like package 459 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,520 Speaker 1: delivery or some right highling services. And we actually have 460 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:03,480 Speaker 1: pilots running today in cities like Miami as well as Washington, 461 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: d C. And for the most part, believe people believe 462 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: that in the countries, about half the people we spoke 463 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,880 Speaker 1: to say they actually believe a self driving car will 464 00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 1: be um safer on the road than humans driving cars, 465 00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: particularly with all the digital distractions that we have, Cheryl 466 00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 1: ten seconds. Do you think a child born today will 467 00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 1: learn how to actually physically drive a car when they're 468 00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 1: an adult yes, with caveat that it depends on where 469 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:33,879 Speaker 1: they live, because a ton of vehicles will be a 470 00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,679 Speaker 1: norm when they grow up. But it's very context driven, 471 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,440 Speaker 1: and so there are still people who love to drive 472 00:27:38,480 --> 00:27:40,480 Speaker 1: their cars, and we'll have to work in partnerships with 473 00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 1: cities that want to bring it to the marketplace. But 474 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,879 Speaker 1: the thing I would leave you with is that seventies 475 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 1: six of the adults that we spoke to said that 476 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: they would rather their child ride in a self driving 477 00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 1: vehicle than ride with a stranger. As a parent of 478 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:59,000 Speaker 1: two boys who I hope are not listening, I agree, 479 00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 1: Cheryl Connolly, Pay you so much. Sheryl Connolly is a 480 00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: futurist for Ford Motorco. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 481 00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 1: P and L podcast. You can subscribe and listen to 482 00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:17,359 Speaker 1: interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. 483 00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,360 Speaker 1: I'm pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm 484 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abramo wits one. Before the podcast, 485 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.