1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,640
Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Brian Curtiz and I'm Doug Krisner. Here

2
00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:07,360
Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.

3
00:00:07,800 --> 00:00:10,600
Speaker 2: In the latest FED Speak, Chair j Powell says that

4
00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,080
Speaker 2: the FED is focused on maintaining a strong labor market

5
00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,400
Speaker 2: for a sustained period. He highlighted efforts to get more

6
00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:20,239
Speaker 2: people into the workforce as part of the fed's push.

7
00:00:20,480 --> 00:00:23,880
Speaker 3: Actually, it turns out that the as an expansion gets

8
00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:27,360
Speaker 3: longer and longer, more and more of the wage gains

9
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 3: actually go to people at the lower end of the

10
00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,840
Speaker 3: wage spectrum. So these are really beneficial things to have

11
00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,520
Speaker 3: that though, the record is also clear that we need

12
00:00:35,560 --> 00:00:36,280
Speaker 3: price stability.

13
00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:38,559
Speaker 4: That's FED share Jay Powell.

14
00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:41,320
Speaker 2: Palell did not comment on his near term outlook for

15
00:00:41,440 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 2: interest rates. Separately, FED Governor Michelle Bowman said that multiple

16
00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,159
Speaker 2: rate hikes may be needed to get inflation down to

17
00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,960
Speaker 2: the fed's two percent goal, and that's even after the

18
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,560
Speaker 2: August data showed some of the slowest price increases since

19
00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:58,240
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. In the meantime, Vice Chair for Supervision Michael

20
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,880
Speaker 2: Barr said that the FED is likely at or very

21
00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,560
Speaker 2: near a level of interest rates that is sufficiently restrictive.

22
00:01:04,760 --> 00:01:06,880
Speaker 1: So we mentioned a moment ago. The weakness in crude

23
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,000
Speaker 1: oil WTI in New York today down two point two percent.

24
00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,600
Speaker 1: We closed eighty eight eighty two. One concern here is

25
00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,759
Speaker 1: how those higher interest rates will in turn slow the economy.

26
00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,080
Speaker 1: Now City Group is saying a slow down will weigh

27
00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:23,400
Speaker 1: heavily on oil prices next year. Here is City Groups,

28
00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:25,920
Speaker 1: global head of Commodities Research at Morris.

29
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:28,080
Speaker 5: We don't think demand is going to come in stronger

30
00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:30,920
Speaker 5: than expected unless for some reason there's a change in

31
00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:34,800
Speaker 5: every economist judgment about where economic growth is going to

32
00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:37,600
Speaker 5: be next year. But the drag from China, the drag

33
00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 5: from Europe, and what we expect is a drag from

34
00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,000
Speaker 5: the United States coming into the market really weighs heavily.

35
00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:46,280
Speaker 1: That is Ed Morris, the global head of commodities research

36
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:50,600
Speaker 1: at City Group. Now City's latest quarterly commodities report shows

37
00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:53,920
Speaker 1: the price of Brent crewed falling to the low seventy

38
00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 1: dollars a barrel range next year. Incidentally, we close today

39
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,640
Speaker 1: around ninety dollars. City Group is fighting more oil supply

40
00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,040
Speaker 1: coming onto the market as being the main driver for

41
00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:06,000
Speaker 1: its adjustment.

42
00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,480
Speaker 2: Ran well a little bit more here on ai JP Morgan,

43
00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 2: CEO Jamie Diamond says that artificial intelligence is already being

44
00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,799
Speaker 2: used by thousands of employees at his bank, and he

45
00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:20,520
Speaker 2: thinks that it's likely to make dramatic improvements in workers'

46
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:23,720
Speaker 2: quality of life, even if it does eliminate some jobs.

47
00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:26,799
Speaker 2: Diamond spoke earlier in an exclusive interview with.

48
00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 6: Bloomberg, technologies always replaced jobs. Your children live to one

49
00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,640
Speaker 6: hundred and not have cancer because of technology, and literally

50
00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:35,800
Speaker 6: they'll probably be working three and a half days a week.

51
00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 6: So technology has done unbelievable things from mankind. But you know,

52
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:42,960
Speaker 6: plans crash, pharmacies get misused. There are negatives. This is one.

53
00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:45,880
Speaker 6: The biggest negative in my view, is AI being used

54
00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:48,480
Speaker 6: by bad people to do bad things. You know the fact,

55
00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,560
Speaker 6: and I do think you know, eventually I have legal

56
00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:52,959
Speaker 6: guardrails around. It's kind of hard to do because it's new,

57
00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:55,800
Speaker 6: but it will add a huge value.

58
00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,680
Speaker 2: JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond Diamon also said that AI can

59
00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:04,240
Speaker 2: help JP Morgan developed new products and improve productivity. Data

60
00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:08,280
Speaker 2: from the consultancy firm Evidence shows JP Morgan advertised for

61
00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,600
Speaker 2: more than thirty five hundred AI related jobs between February

62
00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:12,280
Speaker 2: and April.

63
00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,400
Speaker 1: A bipartisan group of US senators is now hoping to

64
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,640
Speaker 1: meet with Chinese President Chi Jinping on a visit to

65
00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,880
Speaker 1: China next week. The story from Bloomberg's ju Enmong In.

66
00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,400
Speaker 7: Hong Kong, Senators Mike Craple and Chuck Schumer plan to

67
00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,880
Speaker 7: raise the issue of Micron technology and its ability to

68
00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:32,160
Speaker 7: do business in China. Micron has been facing an ongoing

69
00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:36,760
Speaker 7: probe by China Cybersecurity Administration. The senators also planned to

70
00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:40,119
Speaker 7: meet with the US business community in Shanghai. So to say,

71
00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,640
Speaker 7: the White House is aware of the senator's plans and

72
00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,480
Speaker 7: encourage them to go. The visit comes as the US

73
00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:50,440
Speaker 7: seeks to smooth ties with China after months of escalating tensions. Separately,

74
00:03:50,480 --> 00:03:53,160
Speaker 7: the US is hoping to arrange a November meeting between

75
00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 7: Presidents Biden and she at the APEX summit in San

76
00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:59,280
Speaker 7: Francisco and Hong Kong. Joined Wang Bloomberg Radio.

77
00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,160
Speaker 2: We get a monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank

78
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,840
Speaker 2: of Australia at two thirty in the afternoon Sydney time today.

79
00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 4: More on that from Bloomberg's Paul Allen.

80
00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:12,400
Speaker 8: Bloomberg Economics expects the RBA to keep the cash rat

81
00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:16,200
Speaker 8: target on hold at four point one percent on October third.

82
00:04:16,520 --> 00:04:19,800
Speaker 8: It's been hiked by four hundred basis points since April

83
00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,280
Speaker 8: twenty twenty two, and that is the largest and fastest

84
00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,840
Speaker 8: tightening in the inflation targeting era. So far, it's not

85
00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 8: been enough to push inflation back down to the RBA's

86
00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,600
Speaker 8: two to three percent target. Recent Hotter CPI data raises

87
00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:36,840
Speaker 8: the risk that Australia's Central Bank could deliver another hike,

88
00:04:37,080 --> 00:04:40,600
Speaker 8: potentially at its November meeting, but Bloomberg Economics sees the

89
00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,719
Speaker 8: RBA starting to cut interest rates in the first quarter

90
00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,719
Speaker 8: of next year. I'm Paul Allen Bloomberg.

91
00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 4: Radio, Doug.

92
00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:49,920
Speaker 2: I've got a question for you here to start off

93
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,760
Speaker 2: the show today. J Powell talking about maintaining a strong

94
00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:58,239
Speaker 2: labor market, is he preparing us for a slight switch

95
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:00,640
Speaker 2: on the focus of the DA you will mandate.

96
00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,120
Speaker 1: That's certainly a possibility when you consider how things have

97
00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:07,239
Speaker 1: changed in the US labor market on the structural side

98
00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:09,520
Speaker 1: since the pandemic. I think that is one of the

99
00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,880
Speaker 1: conundrums that the FED has to be facing right now.

100
00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,000
Speaker 1: But I want to go back to the story that

101
00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:18,719
Speaker 1: we just unpacked a little bit ago. This bipartisan team

102
00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:21,599
Speaker 1: of US senators of visiting China next week. One of

103
00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:23,599
Speaker 1: the issues we are told that they will raise with

104
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:28,000
Speaker 1: Beijing is the ability of Micron Technology to do business

105
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,680
Speaker 1: in China. Micron obviously the big memory chip maker. And

106
00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:35,359
Speaker 1: I say that because the White House now has reportedly

107
00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,680
Speaker 1: given Beijing some fair warning on plans to update US

108
00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:43,560
Speaker 1: rules on shipping certain semiconductors to China, and basically this

109
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,919
Speaker 1: is AI chips along with some semiconductor making tools. Reuter

110
00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:52,240
Speaker 1: saying these updates could come as early as October, So

111
00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:54,040
Speaker 1: I think the timing is kind of interesting.

112
00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:57,520
Speaker 2: It is interesting timing, and they're also really hoping to

113
00:05:57,560 --> 00:06:00,400
Speaker 2: help arrange a meeting between President She and President Biden.

114
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,640
Speaker 4: Has Joan mentioned in.

115
00:06:03,160 --> 00:06:06,040
Speaker 2: If she goes to APEX, we still don't know. It

116
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:09,839
Speaker 2: hasn't been confirmed. It's possible that he won't go because

117
00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:13,320
Speaker 2: of pressing concerns at home. However, that doesn't mean that

118
00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,719
Speaker 2: they can't still talk, can't still meet. They might be

119
00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:18,839
Speaker 2: looking to do it that way, but I think for

120
00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,160
Speaker 2: a lot of people, they would like to see a

121
00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,400
Speaker 2: President She attending those APEC meetings. As far as market

122
00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,440
Speaker 2: market movements go, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley warned.

123
00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:30,880
Speaker 4: Again about US stocks today.

124
00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:33,640
Speaker 2: I'm a little curious about this because the Russell two

125
00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:36,840
Speaker 2: thousand is now negative for the year. It's down twelve

126
00:06:36,839 --> 00:06:41,400
Speaker 2: percent since the first of August, so nothing too frothy there.

127
00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:45,000
Speaker 2: The S and P equal Weight Index turned negative year

128
00:06:45,040 --> 00:06:48,839
Speaker 2: today today as well. Most of the US stock market

129
00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:52,800
Speaker 2: is not doing all that well. Valuations not particularly lofty,

130
00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:57,120
Speaker 2: and yet few strategies outside ed Yard Denny are positive.

131
00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's very interesting when you look at today's PMI

132
00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,080
Speaker 1: day to both readings and I'm speaking here of the

133
00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:05,039
Speaker 1: ism and at the same time S and P Global

134
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:08,280
Speaker 1: both numbers coming in ahead of estimates. So the market

135
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,320
Speaker 1: now is seeing maybe a thirty percent probability of a

136
00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,280
Speaker 1: November rate hike. Just last Friday, Brian, that probability was

137
00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:17,440
Speaker 1: only eighteen percent.

138
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:19,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's very exciting.

139
00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:20,160
Speaker 2: All right.

140
00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:23,320
Speaker 4: Now it's time for global news hard right.

141
00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:28,000
Speaker 2: Republican Congressman Matt Gates is applying pressure on House Speaker

142
00:07:28,080 --> 00:07:32,040
Speaker 2: Kevin McCarthy at Baxter has that story and other global news.

143
00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,560
Speaker 9: Ed Yeah, that's right, Briant. He is now claiming that

144
00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,720
Speaker 9: there was a side deal between McCarthy and President Joe

145
00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:39,520
Speaker 9: Biden about funding Ukraine.

146
00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,120
Speaker 10: It is going to be difficult for my Republican friends

147
00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,640
Speaker 10: to keep calling President Biden feeble while he continues to

148
00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:50,640
Speaker 10: take Speaker McCarthy's lunch money.

149
00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,520
Speaker 9: Not every negotiation now the White House, is there no

150
00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:56,320
Speaker 9: side deal And overall, whether there's enough pressure to force

151
00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,240
Speaker 9: McCarthy out of position as a major question, and the

152
00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:02,000
Speaker 9: move to AKA maybe losing steam as a matter of fact.

153
00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,920
Speaker 9: Congress From Jim Jordan, a member of the Freedom Caucus

154
00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:09,240
Speaker 9: exclusively on Bloomberg's balance of power today, says he supports McCarthy.

155
00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:11,520
Speaker 11: I know a number of people who were part of

156
00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:14,880
Speaker 11: that twenty back in January. I think it made statements

157
00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:17,920
Speaker 11: today that they do not support moving forward with the

158
00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,480
Speaker 11: motion of vacate. I think there's statements out from some

159
00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,200
Speaker 11: of my good friends and colleagues in the Freedom Caucus,

160
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,000
Speaker 11: like Scott Harry, I think bar mc donald's, I think

161
00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,360
Speaker 11: Congressman Roy So, I think that's a good sign.

162
00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:32,680
Speaker 9: So Matt Gates may ultimately be standing whistling into the

163
00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,880
Speaker 9: wind when all of this is done now. Aside from

164
00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,360
Speaker 9: the loud noise over the Speakership, Bloomberg's Amory hor Duran

165
00:08:38,440 --> 00:08:40,480
Speaker 9: says still a lot of work to do.

166
00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,360
Speaker 12: Two big things to watch out for. One is that

167
00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,720
Speaker 12: Ukraine aid that was not included, and President Biden said

168
00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,040
Speaker 12: he hopes McCarthy takes it up quickly. McCarthy, though yesterday

169
00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:51,360
Speaker 12: directly linked it to the border. He said, the border

170
00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:53,959
Speaker 12: is my priority. And the second thing is, of course

171
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,800
Speaker 12: they should be working on those twelve appropriation bills to

172
00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 12: actually fund the federal government. But a mass of headache

173
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:02,880
Speaker 12: and distraction is about to hit Capitol Hill this week,

174
00:09:02,880 --> 00:09:06,360
Speaker 12: and that's when as Matt Gates has vowed to have

175
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:08,320
Speaker 12: a motion to vacate for the speakership.

176
00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,120
Speaker 9: Yeah. Meanwhile, the White House today is saying aid for

177
00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:14,560
Speaker 9: Ukraine is essential. Spoke from when Karine. Jean Pierre says

178
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:15,559
Speaker 9: continued pressure.

179
00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:19,160
Speaker 3: What we know is that there's bipartisan support for this deal.

180
00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:20,080
Speaker 11: Again.

181
00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:23,560
Speaker 1: Speaker McCarthy was on the air multiple times yesterday saying

182
00:09:23,600 --> 00:09:26,600
Speaker 1: that he wants to He certainly wants to continue support

183
00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:29,000
Speaker 1: for Ukraine to get the weapons that they need.

184
00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:29,559
Speaker 9: Yanks.

185
00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:31,040
Speaker 11: We're going to hold him to.

186
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,880
Speaker 9: That, Jean Pierre says, as bipartisan support for aid for

187
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,720
Speaker 9: Ukraine and it will pass. Civil case alleging Donald Trump

188
00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,400
Speaker 9: engaged in a decade long scheme of persistent acts of

189
00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:43,960
Speaker 9: fraud to inflate his net worth is on trial. Attorney

190
00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:47,280
Speaker 9: General Letitia arm James is arguing.

191
00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:49,880
Speaker 1: No matter how powerful you are, no matter how much

192
00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:53,199
Speaker 1: money you think you may have, no one is above.

193
00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:54,800
Speaker 9: The law, and Donald Trump defiant.

194
00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:57,480
Speaker 2: Very simply put, it's a witch hunt.

195
00:09:57,960 --> 00:09:58,800
Speaker 7: It's a disgrace.

196
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,960
Speaker 2: We have a corre attorney general in the state.

197
00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:03,640
Speaker 9: And if he loses a case, it could be a

198
00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,080
Speaker 9: divorce between him and doing business in New York, as

199
00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,600
Speaker 9: well as a two hundred and fifty million dollar fine.

200
00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 9: The arguments have centered on whether there'll be a summary

201
00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,920
Speaker 9: judgment or whether Trump will be able to put up

202
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:17,280
Speaker 9: any witnesses. In just a side note regarding Donald Trump,

203
00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,199
Speaker 9: some of the most damning statements reported to have been

204
00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:23,400
Speaker 9: made by Trump confirmed today by John Kelly, Chief of

205
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,839
Speaker 9: Staff CNN. Kelly confirming Trump said that military people shot

206
00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:32,079
Speaker 9: down our POW's are losers and suckers. He's not wanting

207
00:10:32,120 --> 00:10:35,320
Speaker 9: to be seen with military amputees because quota doesn't look

208
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,840
Speaker 9: good for me, and that he's not truthful on his

209
00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:42,600
Speaker 9: views about unborn life, women, minorities, evangelical Christians or JEWS

210
00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,480
Speaker 9: Global News fired by more than twenty seven hundred journalist

211
00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,720
Speaker 9: and analysts in over one hundred and twenty countries. In

212
00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:50,280
Speaker 9: San Francisco, I'm at Baxter and this is Bloomberg.

213
00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:53,800
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. I'm Brian Curtis with Rashad Solomon.

214
00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:58,040
Speaker 2: Our guest is Loreen Gilbert, CEO of Walthwise Financial. Loreen,

215
00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:02,280
Speaker 2: is diversification more important than ever or are you looking

216
00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 2: for some highly specific opportunities?

217
00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:10,600
Speaker 13: Yes, thank you. I think diversification is key. We continue

218
00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,559
Speaker 13: to see volatility in the markets. We continue to hear

219
00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:18,680
Speaker 13: a lot of uncertainty with the FED, and the markets

220
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:25,480
Speaker 13: have been responding to that. So absolutely diversification, which means

221
00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:30,760
Speaker 13: a combination of equity and fixed income, but all across

222
00:11:30,840 --> 00:11:34,960
Speaker 13: the board. Keeping quality high. I think as we continue

223
00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:38,880
Speaker 13: to slow down in the economy, quality will be important.

224
00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:40,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, Larina.

225
00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,520
Speaker 14: When you're looking at these sovereign bonds and the treasury market,

226
00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,160
Speaker 14: I mean, how far can they fall and how high

227
00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:51,640
Speaker 14: can yield go in the current environment and give us

228
00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:54,760
Speaker 14: a sense also where on a duration you'd like to

229
00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 14: be and where does it represent best value?

230
00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:00,360
Speaker 11: Right?

231
00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,439
Speaker 13: So we do continue to see we do continue to

232
00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:08,680
Speaker 13: see decline in bonds with yields going up, and so

233
00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:12,840
Speaker 13: what we're looking to do is continue to be a

234
00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,320
Speaker 13: little bit beyond benchmark as far as duration is concerned,

235
00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:22,320
Speaker 13: and then extending that direct duration as we see this

236
00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:28,160
Speaker 13: is the prop We don't know where the end is insight,

237
00:12:28,280 --> 00:12:32,760
Speaker 13: it can't tell you where that is, but it will come.

238
00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,520
Speaker 13: And we think that we're closer to the end of

239
00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:38,760
Speaker 13: the repricing and certainly than the beginning of that. So

240
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,400
Speaker 13: continue to add in as we see the decline in prices.

241
00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:44,959
Speaker 2: So we all know the dual mandate for the FED

242
00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:50,480
Speaker 2: is stable prices and a strong labor market. Powell came

243
00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,480
Speaker 2: out and talked about the strong labor market today rather

244
00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,120
Speaker 2: than the prices side. Is that a tell?

245
00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:01,200
Speaker 11: Yes?

246
00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:01,960
Speaker 4: I think it is.

247
00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:05,280
Speaker 13: And I think what we're seeing is that inflation, except

248
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:08,720
Speaker 13: for the stickiest parts of inflation. We're seeing inflation coming

249
00:13:08,760 --> 00:13:12,360
Speaker 13: down at least the areas where the FED has more

250
00:13:12,360 --> 00:13:15,400
Speaker 13: of an impact, and those other areas that are stickier

251
00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:19,000
Speaker 13: are going to take longer. And so facing you know,

252
00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:23,959
Speaker 13: having a focus on the labor markets, I think is

253
00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,200
Speaker 13: going to be their focus now as well as they've

254
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:32,040
Speaker 13: been focusing mainly on inflation, and they're trying to get

255
00:13:32,040 --> 00:13:35,000
Speaker 13: this right. They're trying to slow down the economy without

256
00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:36,280
Speaker 13: crushing it at the same time.

257
00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,640
Speaker 14: Well, is that possible? They have to cause some damage

258
00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:43,640
Speaker 14: in order to get inflation tamed entirely, surely.

259
00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:48,679
Speaker 13: I agree, And that's why I think that ultimately we

260
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,000
Speaker 13: know the next recession will come. We just don't know

261
00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:55,040
Speaker 13: when it will come. But certainly there's going to be

262
00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,920
Speaker 13: a slowing down of the economy. And the idea of

263
00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:04,199
Speaker 13: a soft landing is I think. You know, a lot

264
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,079
Speaker 13: of people are saying, yes, we're there, But what I'm

265
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:11,000
Speaker 13: saying is, ultimately we're going to have a recession. If

266
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:14,280
Speaker 13: we end up with a salt landing for now, that's

267
00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 13: just pushing out the reality of a recession that will

268
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:20,680
Speaker 13: hit us later. So one way or another, the economy

269
00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:22,840
Speaker 13: will get to a point, we will get to a

270
00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:25,080
Speaker 13: breaking point and we will have a recession.

271
00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,480
Speaker 2: Well, you've got Atlanta fed GDP now up around four

272
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:30,400
Speaker 2: point eight to four point nine percent, and you have

273
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:35,200
Speaker 2: companies h and analysts still raising earnings projections.

274
00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 4: So I wonder when is that?

275
00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:38,560
Speaker 2: When is the doom coming?

276
00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:42,440
Speaker 13: Yeah? And I think right right right, And I think

277
00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:44,720
Speaker 13: that when we look at Q three, I think we're

278
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:49,560
Speaker 13: we're probably coming out of an earnings recession, expectation of

279
00:14:49,680 --> 00:14:52,360
Speaker 13: flat flat to a little bit above flat on your

280
00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:57,920
Speaker 13: over year earning, so you know we're seeing a positive movement.

281
00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,560
Speaker 13: And I think we're also in Q three coming off

282
00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,360
Speaker 13: of lower baseline effects that will help the earnings in

283
00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:08,560
Speaker 13: Q three as well, and we'll know that that ultimately

284
00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:09,640
Speaker 13: will move from market.

285
00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,640
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, your morning brief on this

286
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,400
Speaker 2: story's making news from Hong Kong to Singapore and Wall Street.

287
00:15:17,400 --> 00:15:21,400
Speaker 1: Look for us on your podcast feed every day, on Apple, Spotify,

288
00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,680
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

289
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,400
Speaker 2: You can also listen live each day on Bloomberg eleven

290
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 2: three to zero in New York, Bloomberg ninety nine to

291
00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,040
Speaker 2: one in Washington, Bloomberg one oh six to one in Boston,

292
00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:34,880
Speaker 2: and Bloomberg nine sixty in San Francisco.

293
00:15:35,080 --> 00:15:38,000
Speaker 1: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

294
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:43,240
Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty plus.

295
00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:46,760
Speaker 2: Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, Sirius

296
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 2: XM Channel one nineteen, the iHeartRadio app, and on Bloomberg

297
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:51,920
Speaker 2: dot Com.

298
00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:53,680
Speaker 4: I'm Brian Curtis.

299
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,840
Speaker 1: And I'm Doug Krisner. Join us again tomorrow for all

300
00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,360
Speaker 1: the news you need to start your day, right here

301
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:00,800
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg day Break Asia.

302
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:02,000
Speaker 10: How do you do