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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second. Welcome to the Actionwork Podcast

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Speaker 2: UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Zarillo, joined today by Billy

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Speaker 2: Word to help you break down this weekend's UFC card,

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Speaker 2: give you our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props and more.

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Speaker 2: And if you'd like to instantly tail some of the

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Speaker 2: bets that we discuss on today's show, you can find

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Speaker 2: the quick slip links both in the video and the

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Speaker 2: podcast description, or go to Actionwork dot com slash bet now.

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Speaker 2: Quali fight card from the Etty Hot Arena in Abu Dhabi, UAE.

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Speaker 2: Early start time for this card noon Eastern on ESPNS.

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Speaker 2: Make sure you get those bets in early five fight

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Speaker 2: main card on ABC at three pm Eastern. Seven prelims.

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Speaker 2: As I said, starting at noon ET. The main event

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Speaker 2: in the middleweight division between Robert the Reaper Whitaker Bobby

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Speaker 2: Knuckles currently about minus one forty eight against Reinier de

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Speaker 2: Ritter about plus one twenty. Fight is roughly plus two

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Speaker 2: hundred to go to a decision, minus two to seventy

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Speaker 2: five to end inside the distance.

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Speaker 3: Billy and I are on.

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Speaker 2: Opposite sides of this fight, and on opposite sides of

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Speaker 2: a lot of fights on the card this week. I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go ahead and give out my breakdown first, just

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Speaker 2: because I have a written preview for this one up

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Speaker 2: on actionework dot Com. I think there's a bunch of

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Speaker 2: fighters this week that are very overweight in terms of

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Speaker 2: the public projection market. A lot of fighters being picked

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Speaker 2: more often to win than they're betting on suggest to

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Speaker 2: Ritter falls into that category. I'll touch on the other

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Speaker 2: ones throughout the show, but roughly, de Ritter getting picked

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Speaker 2: to win the fight about forty eight percent of the time,

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Speaker 2: listed around forty three to forty four percent in the market,

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Speaker 2: so about five percent above where he's listed. There's other

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Speaker 2: fighters on the show. We'll talk about her being picked

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Speaker 2: about ten percent more often than the betting market suggests. Now,

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Speaker 2: de Ritter is tolering longer, and he does have the

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Speaker 2: grappling upside in terms of just being able to get

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Speaker 2: on top of Whitaker and mull him. We've seen in

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Speaker 2: his more recent fights. His more recent losses, Whittaker has

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Speaker 2: struggled with the physicality of both Tom Zott Andriguez Duplessi.

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Speaker 2: De Ritter has shown that he can out physical dudes

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Speaker 2: like Kevin Holland was great in his fight against bon Nickel,

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Speaker 2: But this is a much different matchup for me in

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Speaker 2: terms of Whittaker being able to deny the takedowns, potentially

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Speaker 2: get back to his feet and then just win the striking.

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Speaker 2: So I do think de Ritter has the grappling upside.

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Speaker 2: I do recognize that is how he wins the fight,

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Speaker 2: but across a twenty five minute fight, I think rob

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Speaker 2: just has more ways to win, either by finishing the

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Speaker 2: fight having better cardio, winning minutes down this stretch, I

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Speaker 2: think he's going to be the more efficient striker. Eventually

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Speaker 2: we'll figure out the height and reach and end up

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Speaker 2: taking over the fight with better cardio. I really did

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Speaker 2: not like de Ritter's one five round fight that he

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Speaker 2: had in one Championship where he went all five rounds

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Speaker 2: ended up winning a decision, but he ended that fight

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Speaker 2: on bot looking completely exhausted in the fifth round. He

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Speaker 2: basically gassed out, and at middleweight, having to cut weight

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Speaker 2: for this fight, I don't think it necessarily helps his

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Speaker 2: ability to go twenty five minutes. So I just like

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Speaker 2: Robert Whittaker in a five round fight, the ability to

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Speaker 2: win down the stretch, the ability to finish this fight

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Speaker 2: late if the Ritter is too big and strong for

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Speaker 2: him and it's just able to get on top and

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Speaker 2: finish the fight. That is how I think he wins,

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Speaker 2: just like how he won the Kevin Holland fights.

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Speaker 3: So, Billy, I'm.

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Speaker 2: Curious to hear your breakdown whether you think de Ritter

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Speaker 2: has more win it winning upside than I give him

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Speaker 2: credit for. And then also whether you're interested in live

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Speaker 2: betting Whittaker at any point during this fight, because I

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Speaker 2: do like Rob pre fight up to about minus one sixty,

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Speaker 2: but I also like him live after round one, really

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Speaker 2: any time after round one, as long.

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Speaker 3: As the price improves.

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Speaker 2: Basically, I'm waiting for DeRidder to win either round one

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Speaker 2: or round two with a takedown on some control and

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Speaker 2: then bet Whitaker at a better number. So you're taking

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Speaker 2: to rider pre fight, But are you interested in this

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Speaker 2: one live at all?

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Speaker 1: I am, And I'll actually start by saying, anytime you

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Speaker 1: and I disagree on the main event, I would urge

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Speaker 1: our audience to side with you.

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Speaker 4: On the main events.

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Speaker 1: You do the full preview of those you know, I

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Speaker 1: take a quick look at him, just because you got

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Speaker 1: to talk about the main event most.

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Speaker 2: I feel like anytime we disagree though, I'm Monel, I'm like,

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Speaker 2: I like a live bet too, and you're like, I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna start off with the underdog and then live bett it.

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Speaker 2: So I feel like that's more so where a disagreement

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Speaker 2: comes from. When we're on opposite side of the main event.

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Speaker 2: You kind of think the same too.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, also true, and I am if it comes

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Speaker 1: up planning on betting Bobby Knuckles live, but yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: just I know that you're covering these I have other

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Speaker 1: fights to get to. I don't spend as much time

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Speaker 1: breaking these down. With all of that said, you know,

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Speaker 1: the five round fight for de Ritter, was it heavyweight. Yes,

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Speaker 1: he's cutting weight now, but he's also carrying less weight

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Speaker 1: than he was. He probably never should have been a heavyweight,

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Speaker 1: like he was kind of forcing the extra weight on

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Speaker 1: to even be that. I think light heavyweight, you know,

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Speaker 1: is probably the sweet spot for him in terms of

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Speaker 1: how he performs physically. Obviously, you have to fight bigger

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Speaker 1: and stronger guys at higher weight classes, so he's making

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Speaker 1: the choice to cut more weight also weird when guys

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Speaker 1: come over from one because they do the hydration tests,

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Speaker 1: so you can't cut weight the same way you do

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Speaker 1: in one as you do in other organizations. That's why

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Speaker 1: we see a lot of guys come over at a

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Speaker 1: lower weight class. I believe kaya Sakara mostly fought up

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Speaker 1: a weight class in one versus where he came to

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Speaker 1: the UFC.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna see a lot of that. Actually wouldn't shock me.

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Speaker 1: If Buchaca, who we're talking about later could get down

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Speaker 1: to two oh five now that he can cut weight

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Speaker 1: a little bit easier. That's a topic for later in

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Speaker 1: the podcast. It's just the size and strength advantage. We

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Speaker 1: got to remember Whitakers, you know, solidly muscled dude, but

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Speaker 1: he is a former welter weight. He's not even a

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Speaker 1: big middleweight. And RDR has only ever lost to heavyweights effectively,

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Speaker 1: like the one lost him Anatoti Malkin was Were they

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Speaker 1: both at heavyweight or is one at light heavyweight?

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Speaker 3: I think at light heavyweight?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but still like a guy who's you know, much bigger, stronger,

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Speaker 1: RDR is awkward as he is, like he kind of

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Speaker 1: makes it work with the striking just to get into range,

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Speaker 1: and the underrated part is he doesn't just wrestle. He's

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Speaker 1: a high level judo guy, so if it gets into

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Speaker 1: the clan, she can force it into close quarters. He

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Speaker 1: uses those throws, and because he's so long, his opponents

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Speaker 1: have to close that distance to get to where he

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Speaker 1: can grab them and then set up for throws. I

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Speaker 1: like that dynamic form, as you pointed out. If it

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Speaker 1: goes long, I do expect Whittaker to have more success

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Speaker 1: later in the fight. So if we get a plus

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Speaker 1: money price on Bobby Knuckles, I'll probably end up with

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Speaker 1: plus money on both guys. But this should be a

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Speaker 1: really fun fight one way or the other. I think

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Speaker 1: no matter what side you're on, you have a pretty

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Speaker 1: decent chance of looking really stupid. Because Whittaker starting him

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Speaker 1: in thirty seconds would not shock me, and RDR doing

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Speaker 1: the same thing. Ham's not dead to Whittaker also seems

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Speaker 1: mostly plausible other than like totally smashing his jaw. I

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Speaker 1: saw this fight described as a technique Whittaker versus enthusiasm RDR,

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Speaker 1: which I really appear shaded because it's just going to

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Speaker 1: be kind of a weird fight, I think, especially on

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Speaker 1: the feet and then rdrll look good if he can

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Speaker 1: get it to the ground. I don't see Whitaker getting

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Speaker 1: up other than you know, the round ending if that happens,

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Speaker 1: which is another big part of If we get that takedown,

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Speaker 1: we'll probably at least win the round get a better

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Speaker 1: price on Whittaker. But other than that, I do think

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Speaker 1: we see it mostly similarly.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I really agree after hearing your breakdown, I just

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Speaker 2: want to discuss the two RDR losses. One did come

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Speaker 2: at light heavyweight, the other middleweight, both against Anatoly Malkin.

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Speaker 2: He did retire in that second fight. He basically just

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Speaker 2: didn't get up. He got taken down in the third round.

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Speaker 2: He like you quit and the rev end of the fight.

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Speaker 4: Because heavyweight not light heavyweight in middleweight, light heavyweight and heavyweight.

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Speaker 4: Where the two losses?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, though Wiki says light heavy weight in middleweight,

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Speaker 2: I'm saying heavyweight and light heavyweight on topology, although I

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Speaker 2: think they define crises differently, so like the actual the

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Speaker 2: weight is what we would consider heavy and yeah, they

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Speaker 2: do light heavyweight up to two twenty five and then

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Speaker 2: middle to two o five, right and one, it's like slightly.

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Speaker 1: Different, so effective what we consider light heavyweight and heavyweight

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Speaker 1: by American Commission standards or whatever.

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Speaker 3: Gotch you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's a fair point, that's what worthy.

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Speaker 4: But either way, yeah, I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't love him.

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Speaker 2: Quit like him refusing to get up in a three

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Speaker 2: round fight in a three round the third round of

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Speaker 2: a title fight, and then just ending a five round.

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Speaker 4: Fight on bottom.

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Speaker 2: Like I thought both of those were particularly bad looks,

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Speaker 2: even though we won the five round fight. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I think I think Whitaker live maybe the best angle.

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Speaker 2: You know already are wins round one, round two. You

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Speaker 2: don't have any ticket at all. You can get Whittaker

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Speaker 2: even money live after round one, minus one ten live

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Speaker 2: after round two, something like that. I think that could

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Speaker 2: be the best approach for betting this fight. It just

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Speaker 2: like Whitaker to take over down the stretch of the

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Speaker 2: championship rowns, as long as he doesn't get finished on

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Speaker 2: the mat, which is very possible in the early stages.

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Speaker 3: Let's move on to a fight of the night, though I.

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Speaker 2: Would assume you will have a preview up for this

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Speaker 2: one on Action Network dot com. Pyotr Yan about a

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Speaker 2: minus four hundred favorite against Marcus McGee plus three ten

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Speaker 2: my hot take here, Billy, I'm willing to put this

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Speaker 2: on the air. I think Marcus McGee is better than

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Speaker 2: Sean O'Malley, same, Jim. I think McGee's more well rounded.

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Speaker 2: I think McGee's more durable. I think McGee hits harder. Yes,

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Speaker 2: O'Malley's more technical, probably quicker. If you thought if you

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Speaker 2: had Sean O'Malley and Marcus McGee fight, I might bet

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Speaker 2: Marcus McGee. Yeah, and now O'Malley obviously has the win

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Speaker 2: over Yan.

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Speaker 3: I thought Yan won that fight. I think you thought

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Speaker 3: Jan won that fight as well.

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Speaker 4: A lot everybody.

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Speaker 3: Everybody thought Yeah won the fight.

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Speaker 2: Not that O'Malley wasn't competitive, but Yan probably clearly won

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Speaker 2: the fight. What I'm interested in here is Yan has

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Speaker 2: been mixing it up, winning fights by mixing and takedowns.

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Speaker 2: McGee hasn't been taken down. I believe in the UFC

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Speaker 2: yet he's very physically strong. Yan, I talk about regularly

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Speaker 2: on the show, is the inventor of pyoder yan disease,

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Speaker 2: which is I who does not start fast in a

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Speaker 2: three round fight, and let's round one slip away, and

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Speaker 2: then you have a close and competitive round two, and

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Speaker 2: then take over round three. Well, you're a minus four

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Speaker 2: hundred favorite and the fight is coming down to one

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Speaker 2: judge in round two, which is what happened in the

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Speaker 2: Shaan O'Malley fight. So, Billy, I want to hear your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on my hot take and whether you think I'm

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Speaker 2: way off face saying Marcus McGee might be better than

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Speaker 2: Sean O'Malley, and then how you're betting this fight. We

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Speaker 2: both like McGee to be competitive early went around here,

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Speaker 2: and then I think we both like yawn if his

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Speaker 2: price improves after round one. But I'm actually more interested

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Speaker 2: in my hot take and your analysis on that that

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Speaker 2: I am in your bets for this fight.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's that hot of a take with

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Speaker 1: the caveat. I mean it's that hot of a take

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Speaker 1: in terms of how people will react to it. I

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Speaker 1: don't think it's outlandished by any stretch with the caveat

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Speaker 1: that McGee is somehow thirty five despite just having eleven

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Speaker 1: pro MMA fights. You know, he's five years older than O'Malley.

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Speaker 1: He might be better now, he might have been better

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Speaker 1: six months to a year ago. He won't continue to

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Speaker 1: be I don't know exactly when that turnaround point will

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Speaker 1: be so like, that's.

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Speaker 4: The weird thing.

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Speaker 1: Like I looked at this fight, I was like, Oh cool,

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Speaker 1: they're seeing if pot Yon still has it against this

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Speaker 1: up and coming prospect Marcus McGee, Except the prospect is

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Speaker 1: like three years older than Yon, which doesn't make any sense.

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Speaker 1: It feels like we've seen the best of Yan already

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Speaker 1: and he's only yeah, still thirty two or turn thirty

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Speaker 1: two in February, which is just it's a weird dynamic

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Speaker 1: with that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. In terms of how I'm betting it, I'm trying

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Speaker 4: to get.

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Speaker 1: Greedy here and take Marcus McGee plus three and a

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Speaker 1: half points on the point spread. That's minus one oh five.

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Speaker 1: Assuming Poterion does pyotr Yan things and loses the first round,

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Speaker 1: then I'm gonna come back with a Yan live bet.

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Speaker 4: If all goes according to plan.

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Speaker 1: And pyotr Yan wins twenty nine to twenty eight on

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Speaker 1: two of you know, at least two of the three judges' scorecards,

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Speaker 1: then you can catch both of those tickets. Ideally, get Yahan,

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Speaker 1: you know, after he loses Round one will probably be

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Speaker 1: minus two hundred or so.

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Speaker 4: I don't think the market will.

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Speaker 1: Massively overcorrect, but that way, you're kind of covered in

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Speaker 1: both ways. Either eventual winner at that point pays you

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Speaker 1: out and you have a chance of threading that needle

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Speaker 1: and getting both.

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Speaker 4: For all the reasons you said, McGee is.

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Speaker 1: Explosive and athletic, He's gonna look good early as Jan

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Speaker 1: gets his reads and dances around. The interesting thing about

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Speaker 1: the takedowns is he's mixed in a lot of takedowns,

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Speaker 1: but probably more foot sweeps than anyone I've seen since

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Speaker 1: like mid two thousand or mid twenty times John Jones,

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Speaker 1: Like he's just he's mixing them in as part of

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Speaker 1: his punching combination. He's not really looking to aggressively grapple you.

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Speaker 1: He's just breaking your balance, making you get up again,

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Speaker 1: wear yourself out, which also plays into him building over

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Speaker 1: the fight, right because if you've had to get up

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Speaker 1: three or four times, had your time and thrown off

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Speaker 1: every time you step into strike, you're not going to

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Speaker 1: be as aggressive or have as much cardio later on.

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Speaker 1: So I love that aspect of piotr Yan's game that

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Speaker 1: he's added, but it only like furthers the dynamic that

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Speaker 1: we've seen with him. Have it down in my notes,

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Speaker 1: he's lost five of the last six first rounds he's

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Speaker 1: been in on at least two scorecards, and all six

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Speaker 1: of those fights have gone to a decision. So this

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Speaker 1: is just what we see with the Giogayon fight. He

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Speaker 1: loses the first round wins most of the time overall,

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Speaker 1: but I feel like we're very likely to see that again.

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Speaker 4: Give them the dynamics.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he paces himself like every fight is a five

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Speaker 2: round fight, which is a huge issue when you drop

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Speaker 2: back to three round fights. Incredibly well rounded fighter, incredibly talented,

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Speaker 2: maybe still the best one hundred and thirty five pounder

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Speaker 2: out there aside from Rob but he just has some

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Speaker 2: stylistic tendencies which do not give him the best chance

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Speaker 2: to win, which is why a live bet could be

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Speaker 2: the best approach here. McGee by decision plus five hundred,

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Speaker 2: I think, if you're gonna bet this fight, if you

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Speaker 2: have to bet this fight aside for McGee plus three

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Speaker 2: and a half at minus one oh five, which you like,

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Speaker 2: McGee by decision of five to one, I think would

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Speaker 2: be the only alternative approach, and the judges potentially favoring

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Speaker 2: his power in a close and competitive fight that is

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Speaker 2: juiced and likely to go to a decision. Speaking of

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Speaker 2: fighters who get a decision and end up with wonkee scorecards,

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Speaker 2: Davy Grant and plus two ninety five on the money

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Speaker 2: line is my favorite underdog this week. I make him

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Speaker 2: about plus two twenty eight. I bet him down to

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Speaker 2: plus two to fifty. He has gotten robbed probably twice

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Speaker 2: in his losses Daniel Marcos Adrian Neez arguments for winning

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Speaker 2: both of those fights. He's competitive with Chieto Vera Tu

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Speaker 2: but David Grant super underrated. The main issue here he's

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Speaker 2: nine years older, sin this could be an age trap

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Speaker 2: fight against the mont blackscher, who's striking looked better in

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Speaker 2: his last fight landed one hundred and twenty five strikes

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Speaker 2: against Ala Tang high Lee. But in this matchup, particularly

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Speaker 2: if black Cher is not grappling successfully and holding position

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Speaker 2: or finishing via submission, I think this is another coin

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Speaker 2: flip fight and another close and competitive decision for David Grant.

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Speaker 2: And I think Grant has more knockout upside on the

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Speaker 2: feet than black Cher as well. Black Cher has the

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Speaker 2: submission upside on the map. But I make as I said,

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Speaker 2: Grand about plus two twenty five, like him down to

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Speaker 2: plus two to fifty I also make the goes to

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Speaker 2: decision prop though about mine, and they're giving you even

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Speaker 2: money on this fight GTD, So both Grant on the

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Speaker 2: money line and the gooest to decision prop app plus money.

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Speaker 2: I'd bet that GTD though probably all the way up

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Speaker 2: to about minus one twenty five Billy David Grant against

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Speaker 2: them on Black Cheer. Any bets that you like for

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Speaker 2: this matchup, I.

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Speaker 1: Would actually combine those and go Grant by decision just

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Speaker 1: or Grant and the decision only markets, because the way

333
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Speaker 1: Black Cheer grapples is he's not trying to win rounds.

334
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Speaker 1: He's trying to get submissions, you know, like he'll give

335
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Speaker 1: up your back to try to go for a twister,

336
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Speaker 1: and he has the one win by that, but he's

337
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Speaker 1: tried it in a couple other fights, both before and

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Speaker 1: after that, and that just makes it hard for him

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Speaker 1: to win rounds. So if you I didn't look to

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Speaker 1: see what the decision only market was, that would be

341
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Speaker 1: an option on Grant as well as Grant by decision

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Speaker 1: if you want to get greedy just It would not

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Speaker 1: at all shock me if Black Cheer tapped him with

344
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Speaker 1: something crazy. But if he doesn't, then Black cheer's falling off.

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Speaker 1: Maybe losing the round helps the other guy, you know,

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Speaker 1: So that's how I play that one. I can tell

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Speaker 1: you're looking up the decision only right now.

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Speaker 4: Fifteen.

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Speaker 2: There's an only black Shaer minus two ninety five that

350
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Speaker 2: seems like a pretty good price.

351
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm I didn't look at this fight at all

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Speaker 1: really going into this podcast, but I'm gonna bet that

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Speaker 1: decision only money line for those reasons. I think it

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Speaker 1: kind of combines both of the things you said in

355
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Speaker 1: a nice way and then limits your downside. Obviously, if

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Speaker 1: the thirty nine year old's chen is gone or gets

357
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Speaker 1: tapped with something crazy by the mond black chair, who's

358
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Speaker 1: known to do that.

359
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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's a good recommendation.

360
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Speaker 2: I probably prefer that to the plus three and a

361
00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:30,640
Speaker 2: half at plus one twenty as well, which you also

362
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Speaker 2: lose if he gets finished by submission. So good, good

363
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,560
Speaker 2: look on the fly by you there. Let's go into

364
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Speaker 2: your favorite underdog, a fight that I think is a

365
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Speaker 2: potential dog trap based upon the betting percentages, not based

366
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Speaker 2: upon the tape and how I feel about these fighters specifically.

367
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Speaker 2: But Tabitha Ricci, I should point out, is a very

368
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Speaker 2: popular underdog at about a fifty one percent, clip listed

369
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Speaker 2: at about thirty seven percent. So my model does like

370
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Speaker 2: a man of rebust. But I thought she looked really

371
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Speaker 2: flat in her two most recent performance is against both

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Speaker 2: Rosanama Hunas and Mackenzie Dern. I think I better in

373
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Speaker 2: both of those fights, and I thought she took moments

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Speaker 2: off in both of those fights. Granted five round fights,

375
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Speaker 2: there could be a chance that he take some moments off,

376
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Speaker 2: but I think Ricci younger, hungarier, on the rise. Just stylistically,

377
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:23,080
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that Ricci has the ability to get

378
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 2: this fight to the mac consistently, and she's at such

379
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:28,639
Speaker 2: a size advantage on the feet, I think Reeves is

380
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,679
Speaker 2: likely to win the striking. So I'm curious why you

381
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 2: arrived on Ricci here.

382
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:34,719
Speaker 3: I don't imagine.

383
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,080
Speaker 2: It's probably because you think she has some grappling upside

384
00:17:37,160 --> 00:17:39,680
Speaker 2: or some top control upside. So how do you break

385
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Speaker 2: this one down?

386
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll get to the stylistic stuff in a second.

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Speaker 1: The big thing for me is that these are extremely

388
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Speaker 1: similar fighters, and for some reason, one of them is

389
00:17:48,240 --> 00:17:50,720
Speaker 1: plus one seventy. Like I broke this down in both

390
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,600
Speaker 1: luck ratings and the full article app there are Brazilian

391
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 1: women between the age of thirty and thirty two. Both

392
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,640
Speaker 1: have black belts, and jiu jitsu and judo. Both throw

393
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Speaker 1: with a ton of volume but very poor accuracy, which

394
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Speaker 1: is probably a function of being a little bit smaller

395
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Speaker 1: and just kind of spamming volume on the feet. Like

396
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Speaker 1: there's just so much similar between them in a fight

397
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Speaker 1: that's likely to go to a decision that I definitely

398
00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:14,240
Speaker 1: want to be on the plus money side of that

399
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 1: coin if we're flipping a coin. From a stylistic standpoint,

400
00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,040
Speaker 1: I think Hebus is actually probably the better finisher. She

401
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 1: landed that big spinning wheel kick that was more of

402
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,120
Speaker 1: a volume finished, but even on the ground, she attempts

403
00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:29,320
Speaker 1: way more submissions and goes for submissions. Ricci is a

404
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,200
Speaker 1: judo black belt who then got a jiu jitsu black belt,

405
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 1: where Hebus is kind of the other way around, and

406
00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:37,120
Speaker 1: as you'd expect from a judo fighter, staying on top

407
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 1: is a priority, consolidating position winning those minutes. So if

408
00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 1: this one does get to the ground, which I hope

409
00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:44,840
Speaker 1: it does because it'd be a fun grappling match, I

410
00:18:44,880 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 1: see Ricci is more likely to hold position and win

411
00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 1: minutes where Rebis will play off her back hunt for

412
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 1: submissions take a little bit more risks. I just don't

413
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,560
Speaker 1: see those submissions working out against a grappler of this

414
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:58,720
Speaker 1: high level, right, So, like, you're probably not going to

415
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 1: get a cheeky submission against Tabitha Riccie. She's just too

416
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:04,720
Speaker 1: good at that. I'm interested in the striking too. Both

417
00:19:04,760 --> 00:19:08,159
Speaker 1: have made some improvements. I would say Ricchie is now

418
00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,960
Speaker 1: dating a high level boxer Callum Walsh, and his she

419
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 1: I'd like to see her not totally abandon her kicks

420
00:19:14,520 --> 00:19:16,840
Speaker 1: because her boyfriend's a boxer, which we've seen a little

421
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:20,520
Speaker 1: bit in recent fights, but she throws a lot more

422
00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:22,639
Speaker 1: because of that. She presses forward and just throws her

423
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:25,719
Speaker 1: hands don't do much with those strikes. I don't think

424
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,120
Speaker 1: they're super impactful, but there's gonna be some narrow margins

425
00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:30,840
Speaker 1: and some tough rounds to score. So if she just

426
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,320
Speaker 1: you know, threw a bunch of punches and yelled at

427
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,720
Speaker 1: the end of every combo as she does now, like

428
00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:37,639
Speaker 1: sometimes that's enough to sway the judges.

429
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 4: That might be all you need and what should be

430
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 4: jock yoah, yeah exactly.

431
00:19:41,160 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 1: But with all that said, if Amanda Hebs was plus money.

432
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,119
Speaker 1: I'd betting her too, Like, this is just one that

433
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,399
Speaker 1: I see is extremely close. But for some reason we're

434
00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 1: getting as high as plus one seventy on one side.

435
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 4: So I'll take that any day of the week.

436
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:53,560
Speaker 3: I have a way for you to better. Manda.

437
00:19:53,600 --> 00:19:55,600
Speaker 2: Heb is a plus money, that's to take. He was

438
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 2: by decision at even money. I make that closer to

439
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 2: minus one thirty. This fight is got minus four sixty

440
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,000
Speaker 2: to go to a decision. I would much rather but

441
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,920
Speaker 2: he was by decision than lay her money line at

442
00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,719
Speaker 2: minus one ninety minus two hundred wherever it is currently.

443
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 2: As I said, the model does like keep us in

444
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:16,520
Speaker 2: this matchup. The data in terms of the technical striking,

445
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 2: She's outlanding opponents by about two strikes per minute at distance,

446
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 2: Ricchie getting outlanded by one point seven. Now, I do

447
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 2: think Ricci's striking has gotten better, especially since she's been

448
00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 2: dating Kellam Walsh. I don't know if that's because she's

449
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:31,199
Speaker 2: been dating him, or if she's just focusing more on

450
00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 2: training or striking since he already has for giudo and

451
00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,120
Speaker 2: BJJ BlackBelt, but I do think this one plays out

452
00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 2: more on the feet than on the ground for fifteen minutes,

453
00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:42,919
Speaker 2: and I do prefer Rebus in terms of the striking

454
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 2: numbers and then also the size advantage, as I said,

455
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 2: three inches taller, five inches of reach. So I would

456
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,040
Speaker 2: rather lay Hebus by decision than play her money line

457
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 2: at juice. Let's move on to our top crops for

458
00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,720
Speaker 2: this weekend. We've each got a few. We've got one though,

459
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 2: that is a consensus play, and that is Bushsha Marcus

460
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:08,679
Speaker 2: Almeida minus two to eighty on the money line against

461
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 2: Martin Budai at plus two fifty busha, fourth degree Brazilian

462
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 2: jiu jitsu black belt, multiple time World jiu Jitsu and

463
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:20,399
Speaker 2: ADCC champion and IBJJF Hall of Famer. He's five and

464
00:21:20,480 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 2: one in MMA, all wins in round one. Last fought

465
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 2: in November of twenty twenty four. All five wins have

466
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: come in the first round. His one loss he was

467
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 2: extended to a decision. Martin Budai very slow, very plotting,

468
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 2: not particularly athletic. I think Almeida could just explode, take

469
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 2: them down and finish them inside of five minutes. And

470
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,640
Speaker 2: they're giving us about plus two hundred for al Meda

471
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 2: to do. So you can also bet a same game

472
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 2: parlay Bushesha in the under one and a half rounds

473
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,480
Speaker 2: at plus one thirty. I don't think that is necessarily

474
00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 2: bad either, And the under one and a half just

475
00:21:54,119 --> 00:21:57,040
Speaker 2: straight up is about even money. So I think a

476
00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 2: few different ways to beteshow but his round one so

477
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: is about plus twenty. His round one odds about two

478
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 2: to one. Billy, do you see any potential that he

479
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 2: wins via ground and pound? Here?

480
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 3: And I tease you before the show asking if you

481
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 3: knew what Brushesha means?

482
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 2: Do you have any guesses as to what the definition

483
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 2: of his nickname is or where it comes from.

484
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:19,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm embarrassed to admit I don't know that one.

485
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: Usually I'm pretty good with the you know, Portuguese.

486
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 4: There. I guess there was some kind of animal. You

487
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 4: told me. That's wrong. You're gonna tell us what is.

488
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 3: It's just a cheak.

489
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,399
Speaker 2: He had chubby cheeks when he was a kid, so

490
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 2: they named him Cheek. And then I guess he got

491
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 2: into jiu jitsu. I mean he's still a big guy,

492
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 2: so yeah, fighting at heavyweight. You said that you think

493
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 2: he can get down to two oh five potentially at

494
00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: one point in the future.

495
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: So maybe chubby cheeks could become skinny cheeks.

496
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not sure about that. We were talking about it.

497
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 1: You know, with the one way in hydration testing those guys,

498
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,680
Speaker 1: it's harder for them to cut weight. Also, you know

499
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: IBJJF a lot of grappling organizations and one FC not

500
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: known for their strict drug testing regime. So maybe some

501
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 1: of the weight comes off at some point for the

502
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 1: thirty five year old. I don't want to speculate, but

503
00:23:06,119 --> 00:23:10,439
Speaker 1: you know, big giant, jacked up Brazilian dude, we probably

504
00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: see how we got there at some point in his career.

505
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,399
Speaker 1: But I do see a mild chance of a ground

506
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: and pound. You know, one of his five wins is

507
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 1: by ground and pound twenty percent chance. You know, by

508
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: taking the saub out of that first round prop, does

509
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,040
Speaker 1: it improve it by twenty percent?

510
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 4: Like on the price.

511
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 1: I didn't actually do the math on that until we

512
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: were talking about it, So I'm not one hundred percent sure.

513
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: But my guess is you're not getting enough better of

514
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 1: a price on him to win by submission, since the

515
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:39,800
Speaker 1: market is expecting that to be it. Also, the one

516
00:23:39,840 --> 00:23:41,719
Speaker 1: loss you buried the lead a little bit that as

517
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,679
Speaker 1: to rue group. He lost to Rue group, and it

518
00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: just a hilarious fight falling out of the ring the

519
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,320
Speaker 1: whole time, just big boys in a ring in one

520
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,160
Speaker 1: go back and it's not like it's not a good fight.

521
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 1: So I can't in good faith tell anyone to go

522
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:56,479
Speaker 1: back and watch it necessarily, but it's it was silly

523
00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: and the fun ways. Also, last thing for you leave

524
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 1: Boucecha Training Partners jiu Jitsu black belt slash rapper goes

525
00:24:03,400 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: by Lyrical L E A R y C A L

526
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 1: has a song called Bouchcha. It's just literally a rap

527
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: song about Boucecha. So if you like rap about Brazilian

528
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:15,760
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu, or think that you might like that because you.

529
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:18,080
Speaker 4: Didn't know that was a thing, go check that out.

530
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 4: Surprisingly good.

531
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 1: I'm probably not doing a great job of making it

532
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: sound as good as it is, but dude can rap

533
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,000
Speaker 1: and Bouchacha can grapple.

534
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 4: So Bouchcha round one. I'm gonna be blasting the song.

535
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:29,679
Speaker 3: And can we find that on Spotify? Billy is that?

536
00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 3: Is that track available on Spotify?

537
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 1: Spotify, Amazon Music, Apple Music, all the good stuff.

538
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,320
Speaker 3: Love that. Looking forward to checking that out. Maybe maybe're

539
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 3: a producer.

540
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 2: David can put a little sound roby.

541
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 3: A couple when I get the move to me, don't

542
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 3: be yecking brand new, and you know I get a

543
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 3: Jules to be screaming, I'm a name.

544
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 4: Like a booster, You grabbing like a goon. I'm a sool.

545
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 2: Check if if like Jacques a Usa and I'm blanking

546
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,760
Speaker 2: on the weight, who's a decorated BJ practitioner, put off

547
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 2: of here? If putolf of Vira and Damien Mayo, who's

548
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 2: a fourth degree black belt, and like how good is

549
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 2: Brushesha's jiu jitsu compared to these other elite BJJ practitioners

550
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 2: we've seen at this level?

551
00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 3: Is he better?

552
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: I don't want to say that these necessarily, but it's

553
00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: hard to complare across across weight classes and eras. Probably better,

554
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 1: Like he's probably more accomplished overall than all of them,

555
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: except maybe Maya.

556
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 4: Maya might be the exception.

557
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 1: I will say I like the heavier weight guys coming

558
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: over from jiu jitsu because heavier weight jiu jitsu, those

559
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:39,879
Speaker 1: guys actually wrestle a little bit more and look for

560
00:25:39,920 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: takedowns because you don't want to get stuck on your

561
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 1: back under somebody like Hodra Gracie or any of the

562
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: other big guys that he's gone up against. The lighter

563
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: weight jiu jitsu players, so many of them just pull

564
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: guard and work off their back, which is as we

565
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: saw by Kron Gracie, you know, a terrible strategy for MMA,

566
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,399
Speaker 1: So I don't want to say in a straight jiu

567
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,280
Speaker 1: jitsu match, he is necessarily bad. I think his style

568
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,680
Speaker 1: translates over to MMA better than a lot of the fighters.

569
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 1: You know, even some of these women fighters we were

570
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,440
Speaker 1: just talking about. Mackenzie Dern among them, likes to play

571
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: guard when she's doing jiu jitsu, which is cool if

572
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,639
Speaker 1: you get the submission at MMA, but the rates of

573
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: that are so low it doesn't translate as well. So

574
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:20,439
Speaker 1: I like bigger guys coming over from grappling, I think

575
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 1: more than smaller if I can totally dodge the actual

576
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:24,240
Speaker 1: question you asked.

577
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,120
Speaker 3: The no no.

578
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,119
Speaker 2: And it's also like a skill discrepancy too when you're bigger,

579
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 2: Like fewer of the UFC heavyweights, fewer for the MMA

580
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:33,480
Speaker 2: heavyweights know how to grapple, know how to do jiu jitsu.

581
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 2: They're just big dudes who are told they're big and

582
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,680
Speaker 2: they should probably pursue sports, and so they go into

583
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,720
Speaker 2: combat sports because they're humuggets human beings zoo. They can

584
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,160
Speaker 2: either be a bouncer at a bar or they could

585
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: go fight and a gauge like those are your two

586
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 2: options in lives. So yeah, I think when you when

587
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 2: you actually have jiu jitsu skill, when you're Gelaton Almeida,

588
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 2: and even though you're two hundred and ten pounds, but

589
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:54,200
Speaker 2: you can go up and fight these heavyweights who don't

590
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 2: know what they're doing on the mat, I think it

591
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 2: is a humunkeys advantage skill wise, and getting two to

592
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,919
Speaker 2: one on that round one sub round one finish regardless,

593
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 2: I think seems like a very solid play that'll be

594
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 2: on both of our betting cards this week. And another

595
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 2: fight I like to finish. Another fighter I like to finish.

596
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: His opponent is Carlos Layal, one of our favorites on

597
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 2: this show, despite getting absolutely robbed at gunpoint in his

598
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 2: first fight in the UFC in this exact same arena,

599
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:25,439
Speaker 2: I believe against nat Fokardinov, Layal ten years younger than

600
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 2: Muslim Salakov, the King of Kong Fu love Salakov have

601
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 2: bet him a bunch throughout his career. I think he

602
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: even bet him in his last couple fights where he

603
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,159
Speaker 2: pulled off the wins. But he's forty years old. I

604
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 2: thought he's been done physically for several years at this point,

605
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 2: and basically every time they give him a younger opponent

606
00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: he tends to look out matched physically. Has about a

607
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 2: round round and a half of cardio, but also at

608
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: this point of his career, I think his durability is

609
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,160
Speaker 2: just completely gone. Leyal a big favorite here. I think

610
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 2: he gets this done pretty quickly. Lealen under two and

611
00:27:56,520 --> 00:27:58,879
Speaker 2: a half rounds on the same game parlay as minus

612
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 2: won twenty five. Leal under one and a half rounds

613
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 2: is plus one forty. I might bet both of those

614
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 2: and then bet his round one prop as well, but

615
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 2: I like Leout to pressure Salakov, back them up to

616
00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: the cage, and then finish them with strikes. Should have

617
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: a significant speed advantage unless Salakov hits him with a

618
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:20,240
Speaker 2: spinning attack. I think this is all cardless layout Billy,

619
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on this fight, any interest in betting Layout

620
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,639
Speaker 2: to finish and any other bets you would consider aside

621
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 2: from the couple that I give up.

622
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, the one thing I was looking at in this

623
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 1: fight was the props just to see Leol throws a ton.

624
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,359
Speaker 1: I think he's averaging like ten significant strikes for a

625
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: minute or just under that.

626
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 4: In the UFC.

627
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: It's an interesting matchup though, because Salakov is hard to hit,

628
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: we're not seeing the significant strike props out yet. I

629
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 1: think the market, just the enthusiasm and the heavy money

630
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:52,560
Speaker 1: line on Leal is probably gonna push that line too

631
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: high because if you think he's got a shot at

632
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:57,239
Speaker 1: finishing it and he knocks them out before landing too

633
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: many strikes, that limits it. But also if you don't

634
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: doesn't finish it, it's probably because Salakov's defense will be

635
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: limiting the amount that he's actually landing. So that's the

636
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 1: angle I'm looking at now. They don't have any of

637
00:29:08,160 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: those up right now, but I'm looking for looking for

638
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: those when they come up. I don't want to just

639
00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: say blindly take the under, but if it's a big number,

640
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: you know, like in the seventies eighties, probably go the

641
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: under on.

642
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:19,600
Speaker 4: That is my thought right now.

643
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 2: He just even when he finishes people, I think he

644
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 2: threw like forty seven strikes in like, you know, three

645
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 2: minutes in his last fight. He just threw so much volume,

646
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: So quickly. It's like it's hard to fade that number.

647
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, I do think he ends up finishing this

648
00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: one relatively quickly. We're going to combine our remaining top

649
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 2: props with our best bets section because either of us

650
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: have an alternative take on how to bet one of

651
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 2: these two remaining fights, And there's four fights that we

652
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 2: will not touch on specifically that we may grab here

653
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 2: at the end.

654
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 3: But let's start with your best bet.

655
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: Billy side Ner Maga Matov about plus one ten on

656
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 2: the money line against Bryce Mitchell. I would admit before

657
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 2: putting in my numbers before do the model this week,

658
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 2: I wanted to bet Sayid because I do think Bryce

659
00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 2: is very vulnerable cutting down from one thirty five to

660
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,960
Speaker 2: one thirty five, but then also in terms of how

661
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: he pursues his takedowns, leaving his neck out there for

662
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 2: SAYI to wrap up a ninja choke. So that is

663
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 2: why I would imagine you, like SAYI, to win inside

664
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: the distance. That's where I would have leaned as well.

665
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 2: The only alternative method I think for betting this fight.

666
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 2: I think you either go said inside the distance or

667
00:30:25,520 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 2: you go Bryce by decision, because if Bryce is doing

668
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 2: what he's supposed to do without getting finished. I think

669
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 2: he probably has the strength to control and get top

670
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 2: time on sayid. So either of those bets or plus

671
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,280
Speaker 2: money mitchell decision is plus one thirty five. I like

672
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 2: that down or Mitchell decisions about plus one sixty. I

673
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 2: like that down a plus one thirty five, You like

674
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: Nirmagamanov on the money line and inside the distance?

675
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 3: Where would you bet those? Down?

676
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: Two?

677
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 3: And did I kind of nail your read in terms

678
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 3: of the ninja joke.

679
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 4: One hundred percent? That front choke series that he does

680
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 4: is nasty.

681
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: Like a lot of his wins are listed as guillotines,

682
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 1: but if you go back and watch it, it's not

683
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,480
Speaker 1: just the traditional guillotine we trust someone's head off. He's

684
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: wrapping it up the ninja choke style like a rear naked,

685
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: which is just a much more dangerous and harder to

686
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 1: escape from.

687
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: That is also the sact he just like he just

688
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 2: slapped it on like out of nowhere.

689
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:14,360
Speaker 3: He's so quick with it.

690
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: And also the exact thing that happened to Bryce Mitchell

691
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 1: against Gen Silva like two or three months ago, like

692
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,000
Speaker 1: that exact choke, And honestly I could see the flight

693
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,000
Speaker 1: playing out similarly. Where Nirmalga Madoff is much faster on

694
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: the feet, Bryce Mitchell is not going to look faster

695
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,200
Speaker 1: going down a weight class. He already looks kind of

696
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:33,000
Speaker 1: plotting on the feet at one forty five. Obviously gonna

697
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: be worse at one thirty five. You know, Normaga madeof

698
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 1: works the body really well, maybe catches him with something.

699
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: Bryce shoots in gets caught in the exact same choke.

700
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,880
Speaker 1: I could see this being a repeat to an extent

701
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,880
Speaker 1: of the Gene Silva flight. Nermaga made off not as

702
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: aggressive or as powerful as gen Silva, but very quick kicks.

703
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:53,320
Speaker 1: I like his striking. The aha moment I had about

704
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: Bryce Mitchell is his primary training is like in his

705
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:00,959
Speaker 1: shed at his farm against a bunch of their local dudes.

706
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 4: And that makes him a really good hammer, but a

707
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 4: really bad.

708
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 1: Nail because Bryce Mitchell gets to practice top time and

709
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 1: going for submissions and controlling you against like random local

710
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: dudes in Arkansas all the time, but he does not

711
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 1: get to practice defending himself against dangerous strikers working out

712
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 1: of submissions that he's not familiar with, really being challenged

713
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: in any way. And if you go back like I

714
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 1: was high on Bryce Mitchell when he got to the

715
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: UFC at just twenty three, but that was based on

716
00:32:27,720 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 1: expecting him to continue to improve.

717
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 4: We haven't really seen that.

718
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: Like he's he's pretty much the same dude he's been

719
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: for the last six or seven years now that we've

720
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 1: seen him in there. Rmaga Madoff I think is probably

721
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 1: better than his record suggests in a competitive division, a

722
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: division that you know, I don't think Mitchell's going to

723
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: have an easier time at even though he is bigger

724
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 1: and stronger. Cutting to a different way class rather than

725
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: actually improving your skills is a classic trap of MMA fighters, right, like, oh, these.

726
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 4: Guys just beat me because they're bigger and stronger.

727
00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 1: Maybe, but if you don't make yourself better, faster, more technical,

728
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: then the lighter guys are going to do it that way.

729
00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 4: So I love the money line for Demaca Metof.

730
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: It's actually gone against me a little bit since I

731
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,240
Speaker 1: met it earlier in the week. I'd play that to

732
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: like minus one twenty or so. Inside the distance, I

733
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: think probably like one eighty something like that. You're right,

734
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: if you like Mitchell, it's got to be by decision.

735
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 4: I think like I don't.

736
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,160
Speaker 3: I wouldn't like the mischeon price. I don't know how

737
00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:22,400
Speaker 3: he finishes this fight.

738
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, the other thing I would say is Mitchell live,

739
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 1: if you get a big price, could exceed the decision price.

740
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 1: Because Normalga Madoff fast star has faded for all of

741
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: his faults. Bryce Mitchell's in real good shape, like he

742
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 1: works on a farm all day and then trains in

743
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: the farm shed like in tremendous shape. Doesn't really get

744
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: tired despite wrestling pretty heavily. So that could be the

745
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: other angle to put it. You know, you're gambling that

746
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: you'll get a better price than the decision pre fight.

747
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:51,959
Speaker 1: May or may not be the case, but those are

748
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:53,080
Speaker 1: the two angles i'd look at.

749
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,040
Speaker 2: I'm really glad you brought up the training thing with

750
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: Bryce Mitchell. I think that's been the most underdiscussed and

751
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: overlooked aspect of his career, is the fact that he

752
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: just trains himself.

753
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 3: He's his own coach.

754
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: He's training with AJ Cunningham, his cousin who doesn't belong

755
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 2: in the UFC, Like, no training partners of UFC caliber,

756
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 2: no ways to physically improve. Yeah, cutting weight here, I

757
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,960
Speaker 2: think he could be an ox like the strength could

758
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 2: be a significant thing. He was also never particularly like

759
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: in shape or ripped at one forty five, so it's

760
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 2: there's some possibility that he might just be very strong

761
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 2: and able to consolidate position and hold said down and

762
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 2: have the crowd booing at him for fifteen minutes. But no,

763
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,840
Speaker 2: I was incorrect in saying before either Mitchell by Decision

764
00:34:34,960 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 2: or said inside the Distance, I think said money line

765
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: is more than fine. I just would not bet Bryce's

766
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,560
Speaker 2: money line. I would not lay juice on Bryce in

767
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 2: any way, shape or form here if you're betting Bryce,

768
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 2: take his decision prop otherwise said inside the Distance or

769
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:48,399
Speaker 2: sites money line.

770
00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:49,879
Speaker 3: And it's awkward for me.

771
00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 2: Because I've never I think this is the first time

772
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:56,359
Speaker 2: I've ever given out Bryce like publicly on a bet.

773
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:58,799
Speaker 2: I don't really want to bet it, you know, I don't.

774
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 2: I don't like him as a fighter. I don't think

775
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 2: you know, he has a lot of ways to win,

776
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 2: aside from just takedowns in control, which he's capable of doing.

777
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 2: But my read here before plugging in the numbers with

778
00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:11,839
Speaker 2: Site and that ninja choke, and I think he's gonna

779
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 2: slap it on. So I'll see if I even bet

780
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 2: this fight. The reason I did want to shout this out.

781
00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 2: This was another of the fights where the underdog is

782
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,800
Speaker 2: getting more popularity in terms of picks than the betting

783
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: market is respecting them side getting picked about fifty three

784
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 2: percent of the time here listed about forty three percent.

785
00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 2: I said the same thing for the Rebus and Ricci fight.

786
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 2: My initial read was similar to you close fight, similar

787
00:35:34,960 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 2: fighters expected to go to a decision for the Rebustrecci fight,

788
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 2: but the market, you know, my projections, are telling me

789
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: the favorite is undervalued. Kind of same thing here where

790
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,919
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily want to bet it because it goes

791
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 2: against my pre fight read. I'd rather pass than probably

792
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 2: take the favorite, or I'd rather take Rebust decision plus money,

793
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: Mitchell decision plus money, smaller bets. Not to not worry

794
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,479
Speaker 2: too much about it. I'm not laying juice on either

795
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,280
Speaker 2: of those fighters, to be clear, despite the projected edge.

796
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 2: One other fight here where I think we both have

797
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,080
Speaker 2: landed on the two alternative approaches that you could take.

798
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 4: For this fight.

799
00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 2: I do not like bogd and Guskov is an underdog

800
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 2: money line. I think is a terrible value trap. As

801
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:15,920
Speaker 2: a underdog money line this week. But if you want

802
00:36:15,920 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: to bet his koprop by all means, go ahead. I

803
00:36:18,960 --> 00:36:21,879
Speaker 2: think you either bet Nikita Kralov on the money line

804
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 2: and lay the juice, or you bet Guskov by KO

805
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: at about plus two seventy five and don't worry too

806
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 2: much about it. Krylov, coming off of a long layoff

807
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:33,520
Speaker 2: before his last fight nearly two year layoff, got knocked

808
00:36:33,560 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 2: out by dom Reyis, despite getting a lot of respect

809
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 2: from the betting market, getting steamed up throughout that week.

810
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,760
Speaker 2: I bet Krylov in that fight. Guskov is always losing

811
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 2: his fights early and then manages to turn the tide

812
00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: and finish his opponents. He does have good power early too.

813
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: He looks at albino Anthony Smith, a Siberian Anthony Smith.

814
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 2: He's a very difficult man to look at, kind of

815
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 2: looks like an Orc's Like it's like if Josh Emmett

816
00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: and Anthony Smith a child. I think you end up

817
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:06,879
Speaker 2: with Boga Guskov. But I'm just not confident in Guskov's

818
00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 2: ability to grapple at all at this level. He got

819
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 2: submitted really quick by vulcan Uzdamir. We saw Krylov don't

820
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 2: want to do the transitive property, but Krylov out grappled

821
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 2: uz Demir Uzdamir submitted Guskov very quickly. I think anybody

822
00:37:22,640 --> 00:37:24,839
Speaker 2: at this level, any of these top fifteen fighters who

823
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: try to grapple Guskov are going to have success doing so.

824
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 2: So if Krylov comes out proactively grapples, I think he

825
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 2: win wins this fight. I think he finishes it in

826
00:37:35,200 --> 00:37:38,040
Speaker 2: round one. If he does not, I think it's going

827
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 2: to open the door for Guskov to land that knockout blow,

828
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: either just standing at range or potentially as Krylov fades

829
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 2: down the stretch, because I think Guskov may have a

830
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 2: cardio and durability edge. I just think Krylov has more

831
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 2: ways to win the fight and dominate minutes. So you're

832
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 2: taking the Guskov knock outside of this fight? Where do

833
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 2: you like that one?

834
00:37:57,640 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 3: Down to Billy?

835
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,439
Speaker 2: And then are you in sitting live betting this one

836
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 2: at all? How do you how do you do like

837
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: the cardio dynamic between these two?

838
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really weird one to live bet.

839
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: I mean, like just looking at the guys and thinking

840
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,759
Speaker 1: about how it would normally approach this. The the quote

841
00:38:12,800 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 1: unquote obvious side would be cry Loov live. But as

842
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 1: you've pointed out, like Guskov kind of does a comeback

843
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: thing more often than you expect. I am probably staying

844
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: away from it. With the caveat that, if Krylov has

845
00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:27,719
Speaker 1: to attempt like seven takedowns to get one in the

846
00:38:27,719 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: first round and then they give him that round, I think, yeah,

847
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 1: he's probably tired. Maybe you live bet the other side.

848
00:38:33,440 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: I don't know that that's especially likely. I think he's

849
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: probably either unconscious or on top, like fairly, fairly quickly

850
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,800
Speaker 1: one way or the other. Like he's either in top position,

851
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 1: much more skilled fighter than the bogg Dawn Guskov pretty

852
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 1: much all around a not nearly like the physical specimen

853
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: Guskov is, especially after all the injuries and layoffs and

854
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: stuff that Kryloff has dealt with. Plov hasn't won a

855
00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 1: fight since March of twenty twenty three, so almost two

856
00:38:57,920 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: and a half years.

857
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 4: At this point, he might be washed.

858
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: Like they're pretty much the same age, but it's a

859
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: very different you know, odometer in terms of the damage

860
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 1: they've taken and the careers they've had. The one thing,

861
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 1: because I did some MMA math on the vulcan is

862
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:13,760
Speaker 1: Damre fight too.

863
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:15,759
Speaker 4: I will say Gooskov took that.

864
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:18,280
Speaker 1: On like four days notice or something like the Ouze

865
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 1: was supposed to.

866
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,360
Speaker 4: Fight Johnny Walker.

867
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: I want to say on that card before they got Goosklv,

868
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 1: I'm willing to give him a little bit of a pass.

869
00:39:25,440 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 1: He might be able to deny takedown to just with

870
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 1: being bigger and stronger and healthier than you, which goes

871
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 1: a long way. If he can't, he probably loses. If

872
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 1: he does, he probably gets a knockout knockout at some point,

873
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: So don't mind your read at all.

874
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:39,759
Speaker 4: Probably like I.

875
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: Don't know's it's weird. I almost feel like his knockout

876
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 1: prop pretty much should be his money line. So it's

877
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 1: hard for me to give a price it says anything different,

878
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 1: but two twenty five two hundred. Let me put it

879
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,520
Speaker 1: this way. I think as long as Guskov's knockout prop

880
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:56,920
Speaker 1: is a better price than kry Lov's money line, I

881
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 1: think I would take it that way because that way

882
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 1: you can get both sides and theoretically profit in most scenarios.

883
00:40:03,239 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 2: I was literally looking at that just now, and yeah,

884
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,120
Speaker 2: I do kind of like the way that the there

885
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 2: You don't theoretically, like have to make it a minus

886
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,600
Speaker 2: ev bet. If you wanted to take Krylou's money line

887
00:40:15,640 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 2: and goose Gott Viko. It's not something I would do,

888
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 2: but there is a scenario where you could profit betting both,

889
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:22,479
Speaker 2: and that is why I think those are the only

890
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 2: two bets you should consider betting on this fight. I

891
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: think those are the vast majority of the win equity.

892
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 2: Goosega's money line, as you said, should probably be equivalent

893
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:33,960
Speaker 2: to his ko prop, very similar in price. There's four

894
00:40:34,000 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: fights we did not get to on this card. I'm

895
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 2: not sure if you have bets on any of them.

896
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 2: I do not as of now. The one fight where

897
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:44,919
Speaker 2: I may fire a bet. I saw a price discrepancy

898
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:49,040
Speaker 2: on the yah Ya and win fight wins inside the

899
00:40:49,080 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 2: distance prop was about minus one fifty I want to

900
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 2: say minus one thirty five minus one twenty five even.

901
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:59,680
Speaker 2: But if you structure his knockout prop and submission props,

902
00:41:00,040 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 2: you can get a much bigger payoff than minus one

903
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 2: twenty five I think is I think his submission prop

904
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 2: was about twelve to one in his knockout prop might

905
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,760
Speaker 2: be around plus one twenty five plus one fifty somewhere

906
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 2: in there there was a way to structure those two

907
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 2: props instead of betting the inside the distance prop, and

908
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,759
Speaker 2: to find a better payout structuring them as opposed to

909
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 2: just taking the ITD more simply. That was one that

910
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 2: stood out to me in terms of potential value. The best,

911
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: most interesting fight of this bunch is the Jose Ochoa

912
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,600
Speaker 2: Assu Almabaya fight. I kind of lean O Cholla there,

913
00:41:33,640 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 2: but I'm staying away. I think Almabia could grapple him,

914
00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: and there was just no projected value for me. So

915
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 2: any bet for you on Acho Almabaya, have any take

916
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 2: for you on that fight? And then we also have

917
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 2: the Barrio Sharwer bullet fight, We have the El kana

918
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 2: Ebo Aslan fight, and then the alforementioned ya ya and

919
00:41:50,960 --> 00:41:52,839
Speaker 2: win fights. Billy, I'm gonna let you take away those

920
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 2: four fights. Any bets or reads that you like on those?

921
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, the only one I'm really well, I should say,

922
00:41:58,960 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: I'm not convinced that win is actually that good. Like

923
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 1: he went one in two or two and one in

924
00:42:04,160 --> 00:42:07,879
Speaker 1: the Contender series. The big win was against the aforementioned A. J. Cunningham, who,

925
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 1: as he pointed out, very much not UFC level lost

926
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:12,879
Speaker 1: his debut. I don't think yeah, yeah, is that great,

927
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 1: but like to get plus three hundred, I'm mohammed Yayah

928
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: seems too long by a little bit, especially with it's

929
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 1: the second fight of the night in his home country,

930
00:42:25,400 --> 00:42:28,200
Speaker 1: the same home country that gave fokardinoff like a terrible

931
00:42:28,360 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 1: pre film scorecard.

932
00:42:29,680 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: There pre filled for for Nyaya one. That's why I

933
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 2: bet he went inside the distancer pass.

934
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, right and right.

935
00:42:36,640 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 1: You have to make it to the judges for that

936
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: to matter, which is not a given by any stretch.

937
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 1: But so I'm interested in that a little bit. I'm

938
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 1: very interested in the Oho alma Bia fight, like you.

939
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 1: I'm leaning Ohoa, and this is a little bit weird,

940
00:42:48,800 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 1: but it's because I think Lannie Kavanaugh is such a

941
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:56,239
Speaker 1: great prospect, but kind of by transit of property, think

942
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:58,480
Speaker 1: Oho is a little underrated here. He's looked good with

943
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 1: his grappling defense so far. Are in the UFC pretty

944
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,160
Speaker 1: binary fight where Almabaiev needs to wrestle Ocho and needs

945
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 1: to strike.

946
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 4: The only hangout.

947
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 1: Like if this weren't the case, I'd be betting this immediately,

948
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,319
Speaker 1: But Ohoa took this fight. I'm pretty short notice not

949
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 1: a huge deal, you know, young guy. I'm sure he's

950
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: in shape and in camp all the time. Fighting someone

951
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: like asu Amabaya is the kind of fighter that you

952
00:43:19,920 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: want a specific camp tailored to because he has such

953
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 1: like a distinct and clear style. You know what he's

954
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:27,359
Speaker 1: gonna do. You'd like to train to stop that specifically,

955
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:30,759
Speaker 1: It's not on our current content schedule right now. I

956
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 1: might actually just do a full breakdown of that and

957
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:35,880
Speaker 1: have that up if I get the time this afternoon,

958
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:39,799
Speaker 1: because I would like the opportunity to watch some more

959
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 1: tape on these guys because they're fun fighters, so I

960
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:42,240
Speaker 1: want to see.

961
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:43,759
Speaker 4: We'll see about that. I'm with you.

962
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 1: I'm leading Ohoa, but you know, keep your eyes out

963
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:47,919
Speaker 1: for the article, follow me in the app.

964
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 4: If any of that changes, that is where you'll find it.

965
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a fight in North America or a

966
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 2: fight for Ohoa on a full camp, I'd be more

967
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,320
Speaker 2: interested fighting me and Abu Dhabi Almabaiah being the a

968
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:02,359
Speaker 2: side prop probably fighting. You know, having to make all

969
00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 2: that travel on short notice, I don't know, that's a

970
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 2: pretty tough spot for a show to go up against.

971
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 2: And again, pre field scorecards potentially I'm abaya the takedown

972
00:44:12,200 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 2: is going to get a little bit more favor, right.

973
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:17,359
Speaker 2: We typically see the grappling, the takedowns, the control get

974
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 2: a little bit more deference in Abu Dhabi in the

975
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 2: Middle East than it does over here in North America,

976
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 2: where damage gets a little bit more prioritized. So yeah,

977
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 2: I think for those reasons, it's a pass for me.

978
00:44:29,520 --> 00:44:32,200
Speaker 2: Really looking forward to watching that one though, And again,

979
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 2: just to reiterate a noon start time for this card,

980
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 2: all twenty four fighters made weight this morning, so all

981
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: twelve fights seem good to go. But that'll do it

982
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 2: for a UFC betting preview. You can find more UFC

983
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,839
Speaker 2: betting content from both Billy and myself on actionetwork dot

984
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 2: com and in the Action Network gap And if you'd

985
00:44:47,840 --> 00:44:49,319
Speaker 2: like to instantly tail some of the bets that we

986
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 2: discussed on today's show, make sure to look for the

987
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 2: cliplick links both in the podcast and the video description,

988
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 2: or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet Now. Don't forget

989
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 2: to download that freeward winning actionwork up and sign up

990
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:04,759
Speaker 2: for Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks and analysis.

991
00:45:05,040 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 2: Best of welk with all your bests this weekend, enjoy

992
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 2: the violence, Thank you for listening.

993
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 3: See you back here next week.

994
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:20,560
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

995
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,800
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996
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,680
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997
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:27,600
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