Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. Now,
Speaker 1: here's your host, Paul. Welcome to another edition of Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. I'm Paul Charchy and my co host is
Speaker 1: Brian Johnson. It is I how it be you? Uh,
Speaker 1: it's going great, Thank you very much. It's another opportunity
Speaker 1: to go through the various divisions of the NFL and
Speaker 1: really project what we expect to happen this year. We're
Speaker 1: not replaying last year. You already know what happened last year.
Speaker 1: We're gonna tell you what we think is going to
Speaker 1: happen this season, what's different, and specifically, at the end
Speaker 1: of each each team by team breakdown, we will talk
Speaker 1: about the riskiest player at his current eight P and
Speaker 1: the player with the most upside compared to ADP. So
Speaker 1: that's coming up. Let's do it. Yeah, but first, hey,
Speaker 1: you might want to play in a Guilloteam League. We
Speaker 1: think it's a fantastic format. Eighteen teams start the season.
Speaker 1: No had to head every week, the lowest scoring team
Speaker 1: goes to the waiver wire, and that team's entire roster
Speaker 1: goes to free agency, where pandemonium ensues. It's a Week
Speaker 1: one and a whole roster of players hits the waiver wire.
Speaker 1: Do you spend a bunch of money on Aaron Jones
Speaker 1: has a bad Week one? For example? Do you spend
Speaker 1: a bunch of money on Aaron Jones knowing you could
Speaker 1: start him the rest of the year, or do you
Speaker 1: wait and hope you don't get chopped and save that
Speaker 1: money for later. On a scale from one to ten,
Speaker 1: let's put it this way, how much weight do you
Speaker 1: put into the Week one matchup in your early round picks,
Speaker 1: primarily first, second, third round me, I'm like a seven
Speaker 1: out of ten put right on that um. On the
Speaker 1: premium Guillot League cheat sheet that we offer on the site,
Speaker 1: we show you the the Vegas implied total points for
Speaker 1: each team through the first three weeks of the season.
Speaker 1: So if you want to make sure that your players
Speaker 1: do well, uh, we encourage you to check that out.
Speaker 1: I believe I will have that posted. I'm almost got
Speaker 1: that sheet ready. It's so filled with data. It just
Speaker 1: takes time and and tip of the hat to our
Speaker 1: our our super intern Tyler, who has done a very
Speaker 1: good job helping me fill data on this. Um. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that's coming early next week, I believe, sweet guillote
Speaker 1: leagues dot com. And also check out super Chop, our
Speaker 1: new high stakes format for guillotine leagues as well super
Speaker 1: Chop yet guillote leagues dot com. Let's start with Houston, Brian,
Speaker 1: if we must. Yeah, let's just get out of the way.
Speaker 1: That was my thinking of us. You know, there's not
Speaker 1: a lot of fantasy relevance on this team that could
Speaker 1: easily have the worst record in the NFL. And you know,
Speaker 1: we're all operating under the assumption that the way to
Speaker 1: twenty two class action lawsuits against uh um Deshaun Watson
Speaker 1: is going to be enough to torpedo his season. That's
Speaker 1: the way it seems. But he's I'm not gonna say
Speaker 1: out of the woods. He's not in the either way
Speaker 1: he might play this year. He might right now. There's
Speaker 1: no criminal charges against him. Now the NFL doesn't have
Speaker 1: to care about that, but I certainly think that that
Speaker 1: that works in his favor. Yeah, well, we'll get to
Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson and then the passing game with or without him.
Speaker 1: In a second, just real quick. The Texans do have
Speaker 1: a new head coach and David Culley. He was the
Speaker 1: passing coordinator from the Baltimore Ravens. We had another passing
Speaker 1: coordinator head coach who were new head coach or at
Speaker 1: least new o see who we talked about last week.
Speaker 1: I think he was on. It doesn't matter. I've seen
Speaker 1: a lot of passing coordinators getting promoted. Passing out a
Speaker 1: passing coordinator was a thing, and it's thought that would
Speaker 1: fall into the offensive coordinator. But uh, new head coach
Speaker 1: in David Culley. Last year, the Texans were very pass heavy.
Speaker 1: They passed the ball more than of the time at
Speaker 1: the third highest clip in the league, meaning they ran
Speaker 1: the ball up the third fewest amount of times. They
Speaker 1: were thirty in the league. So pass heavy offense probably
Speaker 1: gonna lean that way this year. But who's gonna be
Speaker 1: a quarterback? Probably not DeShawn Watson, probably not, but could be.
Speaker 1: Then there's Tarrod Taylor. Yep, of course, that's my guess,
Speaker 1: is your week one starter. He'll be the Week one starter.
Speaker 1: But they like Davis Mills, and we like Davis Mills.
Speaker 1: Here rookie rookie at a Stanford a third round pick um,
Speaker 1: but with just the eleven college starts, the presumption was
Speaker 1: that Mills would spend his first year on the bench.
Speaker 1: I like him, I like his prospects long term. But
Speaker 1: I think the best thing for Davis Mills, assuming unless
Speaker 1: it turns out he's even better than I think he
Speaker 1: can be UH, is for him to spend as much
Speaker 1: time as possible on the bench. I don't I don't
Speaker 1: want to see him until November. Maybe, well, Tarad deserves
Speaker 1: this week one started if Watson is disciplined, suspended or whatever.
Speaker 1: So we'll go into the assumption to Rod is the
Speaker 1: quarterback um. Looking at the wide receivers, Brandon Cooks is
Speaker 1: the only wide receiver I want any part of on
Speaker 1: this team. The other ones you're looking at our rookie
Speaker 1: Nico Collins. Then he got Randall Cobb and Kick Qt
Speaker 1: sharing slot duties. Not interested there, but Cooks I don't
Speaker 1: mind him at wide receiver thirty eight right now, that's
Speaker 1: that's a pretty good price for Cooks. And they're gonna
Speaker 1: behind a lot. They're gonna throw a ton of Cooks.
Speaker 1: Didn't scored a ton of touchdowns last year. I believe
Speaker 1: he had at least five or six. But he was
Speaker 1: top twenty in catches, top ten in yards among wide receivers,
Speaker 1: So no reason he can't repeat those numbers and a quarterback.
Speaker 1: The quarterback significant or injury, of course, but I think
Speaker 1: he'll see the volume to certainly be a viable wide
Speaker 1: receiver at three with potential wide receiver too upside. He's
Speaker 1: still a very good player, just on a very bad team.
Speaker 1: And now to the running backs, real quick, I mean,
Speaker 1: do we even want to it's a mess. Houston is
Speaker 1: hoarding fading stars. David Johnson, Philip Lindsay marketing room. And
Speaker 1: if that wasn't enough, and they went on signed Rex
Speaker 1: Birkhead a few weeks ago, a major head scratcher, major
Speaker 1: bald head scratcher. Um The line is decent in Houston.
Speaker 1: There ranked by Pro Football Focus uh ranks twenty going
Speaker 1: into this season. Laramy Counsel a big name left tackle.
Speaker 1: He's a far better pass protector than run blocker. Though
Speaker 1: you basically don't want to touch this backfield with a
Speaker 1: ten foot at all, not at all, And for that reason,
Speaker 1: I think over the course of the season there will
Speaker 1: be eight to ten rushing touchdowns to be had, and
Speaker 1: you know the problem is you're gonna be divvying up
Speaker 1: let's call it nine rushing touchdowns three different ways, and
Speaker 1: then they're each good for like three touchdowns. You're good
Speaker 1: luck guessing in any given game if this is a
Speaker 1: David Johnson touchdown game or a Philip Lindsay or a
Speaker 1: mark Ingram And I just don't think you're gonna know.
Speaker 1: You're not gonna know most of the most of the
Speaker 1: time what's coming, not at all. And for that reason,
Speaker 1: David Johnson my riskiest player based on a DPS, not
Speaker 1: expensive by any means. He's RB thirty seven right now,
Speaker 1: And if I had to have, if I had to
Speaker 1: have a Houston running back on my roster, it would
Speaker 1: be David Johnson. But the beauty is you don't have
Speaker 1: to have. You gonna make you by your roster and
Speaker 1: looking at RB thirty seven right now and guys going
Speaker 1: after him. So I'm on the clock and I'm contemplating
Speaker 1: David Johnson, I'm taking I'll put him in order. My
Speaker 1: preference is Zack Moss, Tony Pollard, Gus Edwards, Kenyan, Drake
Speaker 1: All going after David Johnson all day, every day. So
Speaker 1: David Johnson biggest risk with very minimal upside. Uh, with
Speaker 1: that crowded running back room and upside try to find
Speaker 1: right now? This is not easy. It's DeShawn Watson. You
Speaker 1: get him at quarterback nineteen right now. Honestly nine team
Speaker 1: feels high quarterback. You're very deep, but it is at nineteen.
Speaker 1: I can still get a good starting quarterback. But if
Speaker 1: I told you right now, you give you Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: or Deshaun Watson Wentz and I I'm not gonna fault
Speaker 1: anyone who doesn't want the toxic toxicity of Deshaun Watson
Speaker 1: on their fantasy team. I'm not gonna even more just
Speaker 1: moral ground aside. Even if Watson, say starts the season, man,
Speaker 1: I'd be on pins and needles every week, like is
Speaker 1: this the week the NFL suspends him? Is this the
Speaker 1: week the NFL suspends him? But you get him QB nineteen.
Speaker 1: That's the tail end of your draft. You you can
Speaker 1: always drop him and add another as you know, you know,
Speaker 1: you know what. You've kind of convinced me you're right
Speaker 1: at QB nineteen. It's fourteenth round. Yeah, I mean it's
Speaker 1: to ah is going right after him and then to
Speaker 1: his I can pick up to him. He's not a
Speaker 1: dead cat or anything like that. Then it's justin fields,
Speaker 1: David Jones, I mean, Deshaun Watson plays. We're not going
Speaker 1: to talk about is off the field stuff, but there's
Speaker 1: certainly upside there because he had the most one yard
Speaker 1: completions among all quarterbacks last year. He's the top five quarterback. Okay, okay,
Speaker 1: but let's factor this in as well. He won't play
Speaker 1: for the Texas. He doesn't want to play. This whole
Speaker 1: thing before all of the criminal charges, I'll started, remember,
Speaker 1: he wanted to leave the team. So you know, not
Speaker 1: only do I need him to not be suspended, I
Speaker 1: have to I have to have him decide he's willing
Speaker 1: to play for the Texans, and that might not happen either.
Speaker 1: So you know that's the double lammy on him that
Speaker 1: that worries me. Now that's not to say that Watson
Speaker 1: somehow doesn't find himself on another team. I mean, it
Speaker 1: takes balls of steel to have some other team. Let's
Speaker 1: say Denver, where everybody wants Aaron Rodgers to go. General
Speaker 1: manager George Peyton would have to say, I'm willing to
Speaker 1: take the heat on bringing in a guy with twenty
Speaker 1: two sexual assault charges against him, well, accusations against him,
Speaker 1: not charges. Um, I'm willing to take the heat that
Speaker 1: I'm going to get because I want Watson and I
Speaker 1: don't think there's a GM who will do that. But
Speaker 1: it's not Why doesn't Bay in a clean swap? Because
Speaker 1: but there Rogers is want to play for them. He's
Speaker 1: thirty six years old. Like, Okay, look if it were,
Speaker 1: they're not in the same conference, so they're not going
Speaker 1: to be uh sure, crossing each other's lines. I just
Speaker 1: think I just think Bryan Goudkuts got enough problems. Adding
Speaker 1: in twenty two sexual assault accusations is probably not something
Speaker 1: that he wants to bring on himself. Let's turn our
Speaker 1: attention to a more, much more interesting team, the Indianapolis Colts.
Speaker 1: There was a change of offensive coordinator quarterbacks coach. Last
Speaker 1: year's quarterbacks coach Marcus eber Flos is now taking over
Speaker 1: for Nick Serrani, who got the Eagles job. But Frank
Speaker 1: Wright is the mastermind of this offense and likely very
Speaker 1: little changes schematically. Last year, the Colts were a slightly
Speaker 1: run heavy team, finishing ninth and run percentage, and why
Speaker 1: not their best Their best skilled position player is Jonathan Taylor,
Speaker 1: so let's start with him. After a quiet first ten
Speaker 1: games last year, Taylor went on an epic league winning
Speaker 1: run from weeks UH eleven four award. His average line
Speaker 1: in those games from week eleven forward twenty carries, one
Speaker 1: seventeen yards, five point nine yards per carry, and one
Speaker 1: point one touchdowns per game. About yeah, that is That
Speaker 1: is rock star territory for Jonathan Taylor. They also won
Speaker 1: five of those seven games, which I mentioned because I
Speaker 1: think it's really important because when you win five of
Speaker 1: seven by and you gave the ball to Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 1: twenty times, that creates a mandate for this year to
Speaker 1: keep giving the ball to Jonathan Taylor. Um Frank Reich, however,
Speaker 1: has a long history of running back by committee, and
Speaker 1: I'm not totally sold that Taylor is gonna be twenty
Speaker 1: carries every game, or even just the work horse back
Speaker 1: every game, because Reich's got that long history of not
Speaker 1: not going that way. And we still got Nahim Hines,
Speaker 1: Marlon Mack, Jordan Wilkins, and everybody listening knows those guys
Speaker 1: hop up for big games with disturbing regularity and you
Speaker 1: can't see them coming. So I still think there's just
Speaker 1: a little bit of danger with Jonathan Taylor that people
Speaker 1: aren't really thinking about at his current ADP, which is
Speaker 1: the middle of the first round, so people are taking
Speaker 1: the leap taking him over and uh and certainly zeke
Speaker 1: and uh um and I would do actually I think
Speaker 1: I would as well. But there is inherent risk, like
Speaker 1: you're saying, because of this Frank Rake situation. His current
Speaker 1: ADP is running back eight, going mid to late round one,
Speaker 1: and you know, it does make sense. I don't have
Speaker 1: a problem with him going there, but man, I just
Speaker 1: did again. You know, if you're if it's picked, I
Speaker 1: still want I want to work course back there. I
Speaker 1: don't want to. I'm just I'm nervous about the possible
Speaker 1: time share, because that's who Frank Reik span. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to the passing game. Carson Wentz prime for
Speaker 1: a bounce back season. I think he's an excellent candidate
Speaker 1: to win Comeback Player of the Year. He will play
Speaker 1: behind a better offensive line than Philly's always injured version.
Speaker 1: Wentz handled pressure badly last year and made a lot
Speaker 1: of bad decisions under pressure where he looked terrible. His
Speaker 1: swagger was completely shot. He you know, everything unraveled badly.
Speaker 1: The offensive line is better, although Anthony Costanzo retired and
Speaker 1: they brought in Eric Fisher to fill in for him.
Speaker 1: That should be okay. But Profitball Focus ranks the Colts
Speaker 1: offensive line is number two in the NFL. So Wentz
Speaker 1: is going to have time to set up and that
Speaker 1: part is encouraging and also encouraging the fact that he's
Speaker 1: reunited with Frank Reich, who was in Philadelphia for once
Speaker 1: his best years. He's got good receivers, he's got capable
Speaker 1: tight ends, he's got past catching backs. He's an ideal
Speaker 1: second quarterback for your roster with quarterback one upside. His
Speaker 1: ADP right now is quarterback twenty in the round. UM
Speaker 1: this year. Quarterback is so deep and I think has
Speaker 1: ever been. I think it is the deepest it's ever been.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the wide receivers. I'm just done on
Speaker 1: t Y Hilton and apparently you are too, because his
Speaker 1: his his ADP has slumped down to a wide receiver
Speaker 1: fifty one Brian, that's round eleven UM. Last year he
Speaker 1: led the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving
Speaker 1: touchdowns and nobody wants to touch him. I'm still all
Speaker 1: those numbers I mentioned your targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns.
Speaker 1: He led the team, but he only had fifty six
Speaker 1: catches for seven hundred fifty yards and five touchdowns because
Speaker 1: he was so cheap weekend in week out, draft kings, draftings,
Speaker 1: and he burned me weekend and week I could not
Speaker 1: help myself. I'm like, okay, I gotta keep going back
Speaker 1: to the well because if I don't, I know he's
Speaker 1: but he never did. He had one good game that
Speaker 1: I can recall. He finished his wide receiver forty one
Speaker 1: last year, and so is adp s wide receiver fifty one.
Speaker 1: That's actually probably makes sense for where t Y Hilton
Speaker 1: is in his career arc right now because of the
Speaker 1: return of uh Paris Campbell. Yeah, alright, let's talk about
Speaker 1: Paris Cambel who made you jump ahead? And okay, that's fine.
Speaker 1: I love Paris Campbell, and I'm like the only guy
Speaker 1: that I'm with you, Me, you, Sigmund Bloom, I think
Speaker 1: are the only three that like him. Uh, he's a
Speaker 1: wild card, and you think he'll open the season as
Speaker 1: the slot receiver. He was a second round draft pick
Speaker 1: three years ago, and it's been hobbled by a crazy
Speaker 1: series of injuries, none of which I think are really
Speaker 1: that reflective of who he is, and a lot of
Speaker 1: them are just odd ball injuries, and I just I
Speaker 1: want to believe that he's He's ultimately going to make
Speaker 1: good on the remarkable athleticism he showed that led him
Speaker 1: to being his second round pick. He's at the Byron
Speaker 1: Buckston in the NFL. Yeah, that might be well. Buckston
Speaker 1: has proven more then Paris Campbell has barely been on
Speaker 1: the field long enough to prove anything. But man, the
Speaker 1: upside is there. And last pick your draft can sitter
Speaker 1: Paris Campbell. I like it. Michael Pittman is the future, though,
Speaker 1: and he's going to lead the team in all categories.
Speaker 1: I believe this year. From Week eight forward. Last year,
Speaker 1: he got targeted at least five times in six of
Speaker 1: the final nine games. He caught at least two balls
Speaker 1: in every game, was on the field for of the snaps,
Speaker 1: which I loved. His current ADP for Michael Pittman is
Speaker 1: the ninth round as wide receiver, thirty nine. That's whatever
Speaker 1: twelve spots ahead of t Y Hilton. I think that's right, Yeah, definitely,
Speaker 1: I'm really intrigued by what he can do in year two.
Speaker 1: T Y Hilton clearly the third receiver you'd want on
Speaker 1: this team, and like a distant thirds Campbell as well.
Speaker 1: You think, okay, all right, well you're not like camb
Speaker 1: a lot more than everybody else. People listening right now
Speaker 1: are based on airp if we're baking in a DP
Speaker 1: without a doubt, But don't touch t Y wild Also,
Speaker 1: I'm not touching the tight ends um, even though Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz grew up feeding Philadelphia's tight ends. You've got Jack
Speaker 1: Doyle and mo Ali Cox and they're gonna split time
Speaker 1: just like last year. And no, it's not exactly a
Speaker 1: Zack Lee Um. Neither one put up even remotely startable
Speaker 1: fantasy numbers and we're utterly unpredictable last year, so we're
Speaker 1: not gonna even We're not gonna go there. The riskiest
Speaker 1: player at his current a DP. It's it's hard to
Speaker 1: find risk because there's only one player. Get this, and
Speaker 1: the entire Cults roster. One player is going before round nine,
Speaker 1: Jonathan t So, I mean that's you know, it's the
Speaker 1: only guy I can even list for riskiest at current
Speaker 1: ADP and as I said earlier, his dangers are entirely
Speaker 1: volume related, not talent related. The player with the most
Speaker 1: upside compared to current ADP here tons of options because
Speaker 1: everybody's going every else is going round nine or later. Um,
Speaker 1: I think it's Michael Pittman, who I said it's gonna
Speaker 1: lead the team and all the receiving categories and going
Speaker 1: off the board at receiver thirty nine gives you ninth round.
Speaker 1: You know you've got a lot of upside. I love
Speaker 1: the the idea of targeting Pittman and Campbell and best
Speaker 1: Ball how cheap can get them and ozz are you're
Speaker 1: gonna get the number one receiver for the cold in
Speaker 1: any given game, in any given I like that angle.
Speaker 1: That's a that's a nice one now and and you know,
Speaker 1: when you actually got to set your lineup, that's a
Speaker 1: little more of a headaches. But best Ball, don't worry
Speaker 1: about it. When we come back, we will talk through
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Titans, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Titans influx with
Speaker 1: a sudden injection of Julio Jones into their lineup, Jacksonville
Speaker 1: influx across the entire offense. So we'll tell you about
Speaker 1: those two teams when we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly,
Speaker 1: Segment number two. Fantasy Football Weekly, Paul Chiarchi and Brian
Speaker 1: Johnson with you. We already broke down Houston and Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: As we continue going through the a f C South,
Speaker 1: let's turn our attention to the Tennessee Titans. Brian, and
Speaker 1: you know, the lead story is Julio Jones, but you
Speaker 1: know the lead player is still going to be Derrick Henry.
Speaker 1: It's certainly gonna be Derrick Henry. Tennessee ran the ball
Speaker 1: more than fifty percent of the time last year. It
Speaker 1: was the third highest clip in the NFL. All means
Speaker 1: they ran the ball the most among all teams under
Speaker 1: fifty percent of the time. And that that's not that's
Speaker 1: but that's not a necessarily a balanced offense, not in
Speaker 1: today's NFL. That's not, in today's NFL a very effective offense. Though.
Speaker 1: They were fourth in yards per game, fourth and points
Speaker 1: per game. But uh, like you said, it all revolved
Speaker 1: around Derrick Henry. We're all too familiar with Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: in the run game. Uh, Henry still a beast pretty
Speaker 1: much in the prime of his career. Titans are returning
Speaker 1: what is a pretty good offensive line, ranked fourteenth by
Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus going into this season. UH finished sixth
Speaker 1: in their run blocking grading system last year, but in
Speaker 1: past blocking UM that's probably because left tackle Taylor lu
Speaker 1: Ann Louanne or Loui lu Luwan only played nine snaps.
Speaker 1: He missed a good chunk of the season, so Tannehill
Speaker 1: was missing his blindside protection. UM. The only really but
Speaker 1: back to King Henry, the only real concern is will
Speaker 1: they lightened his load after totaling six hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: one carries over the last two years. I know that's
Speaker 1: that part. That is a that's a real concern, and honestly,
Speaker 1: they probably should. New offensive coordinator Todd Downing would be wise,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, to dial it back at least a
Speaker 1: little bit. But when they dial that back, what do
Speaker 1: they die in link up? The assumption is Julio Jones.
Speaker 1: One would think now that Julio Jones isn't toe UM,
Speaker 1: so that Ryan Tannehill's stock has gone way up since that.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Tannehill the six the most passing
Speaker 1: touchdowns last year with thirty three. Uh, he finished eighteen
Speaker 1: in past attempts and that's good efficiency, right, very efficient.
Speaker 1: He also had seven rushing touchdowns too. I didn't realize
Speaker 1: he had that many rushing touchdowns that I knew you'd
Speaker 1: have like three, four, maybe five, But he had seven,
Speaker 1: so forty total touchdowns last year. And his price tag
Speaker 1: reflects it right now currently QB twelve, which is quite
Speaker 1: the honor in these days. Is he said quarterback is
Speaker 1: ridiculously deep, so it to be a top soll have quarterback.
Speaker 1: That's really saying something. And again it's it's all about
Speaker 1: the wide receiver room now with A J. Brown, Julio
Speaker 1: Jones of course, and uh, Josh Reynolds. I guess who
Speaker 1: was who was something before the h the Julio acquisition,
Speaker 1: But um, sticking with the wide receivers, A J. Brown
Speaker 1: is my riskiest guy based on ADP for the Titans
Speaker 1: um eleven touchdowns last year over a thousand yards, only
Speaker 1: a hundred and two targets. Of course, Corey Davis was there,
Speaker 1: but he's gone replaced by Julio Jones. Johnny Smith was there,
Speaker 1: he's gone. Really only one tight end Anthony Firkster and
Speaker 1: very popular sleeper for for sir, no tea oh firk, sir,
Speaker 1: thank you sir. But um, everyone before Julio was acquired
Speaker 1: was like a J. Brown a lock for a hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty tarrogets plus easily after only getting barely over
Speaker 1: a hundred last year. That changed drastically when Julio came
Speaker 1: to town. So what if a J. Brown doesn't see
Speaker 1: a huge upticking targets? What if Tennessee continues to be
Speaker 1: run heavy, which there's the reason they really shouldn't improved
Speaker 1: defense and uh even you know, more weapons to take
Speaker 1: the pressure off at Derrick Henry. So the fact that
Speaker 1: a J. Brown is going off the board at wide
Speaker 1: receiver eight and he m he's just not a true
Speaker 1: alpha yet, especially with he is. He has the making
Speaker 1: he is, but I don't know if he's gonna see
Speaker 1: more targets with Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, Terry McLaurin.
Speaker 1: Guys going after a J. Brown, You don't get me wrong,
Speaker 1: Like Dynasty wise, a J. Brown wide receiver one, no concerns,
Speaker 1: but just specifically speaking, I would take him at wide
Speaker 1: receiver bride receiver eight to me, is a value for
Speaker 1: for a j Brown. That's how much I like him.
Speaker 1: I think Julio is let's talk Julio for a minute. Alright,
Speaker 1: So last year's wide receiver eighteen right eighteen and that's
Speaker 1: almost exactly right, right, Um, Julio, if he had stayed
Speaker 1: with the Falcons, would be boring for frustrating, injured oft injured. Uh.
Speaker 1: There's a litany of owners that have had him the
Speaker 1: past few years that have sworn off Julio Jones because
Speaker 1: you know how many times you have to see him
Speaker 1: as questionable. How many times are you fretting on Sunday
Speaker 1: morning whether Julio Jones is going to be playing today
Speaker 1: and will this play be his last play? And we're just,
Speaker 1: you know, fred up with that. But you put him
Speaker 1: in this change of scenery and all of a sudden
Speaker 1: he's fascinating and people are and people seem to have
Speaker 1: forgotten all of the frustrations that Julio Jones have Hall
Speaker 1: of Fame receiver. And don't get me wrong, when healthy
Speaker 1: Julio Jones a freaking nightmare. But because he's broken down
Speaker 1: so much, I just I just think people are are
Speaker 1: are overly they're overly willing to look past Julio Jones
Speaker 1: as warts because he's got a fresh start in a
Speaker 1: new city. But those words aren't necessarily any different here
Speaker 1: than they were before. And Atlanta was as past happy
Speaker 1: as any team over the past three four five years,
Speaker 1: and now he goes to the team that's exact opposite.
Speaker 1: The volume should be down this year for Julio Jones.
Speaker 1: I think the move. I think the move if anything
Speaker 1: hurts Julio Jones value. He was my second candidate for
Speaker 1: the biggest downside, and I should say a j. Brown
Speaker 1: doesn't have big downside. I could see him dropping to
Speaker 1: the wide receiver twelve fifteen range, but you're paying wide
Speaker 1: receiver eight that's the very premium price. I don't really
Speaker 1: like Julio Jones wide receiver eighteen either, for all the
Speaker 1: reasons you just mentioned. They're they're both. They're both kind
Speaker 1: of risky because everyone they're like real shiny new teammate
Speaker 1: toys right now. But again, this could be all about
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry like it was the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: But I love Brown. I know I can't. There's it's
Speaker 1: tough to find rationally, so but I just I have him.
Speaker 1: Was wide receiver three. He was wide receiver one before
Speaker 1: the Julio Jones trade, and I've begrudgingly moved him down
Speaker 1: too spots. It's really a four man fantasy team from
Speaker 1: Henry Jones and Brown and Dan Hill. So I went
Speaker 1: with a J. Brown. It was a tough those four
Speaker 1: all of my roster. But you mentioned Anthon Firkser. He
Speaker 1: is my highest upside player. People were his stock was
Speaker 1: going way up before the Julio signing. He was essentially
Speaker 1: uh the second wide receiver on that team over Josh Reynolds,
Speaker 1: and Firkser had some good games last year even when
Speaker 1: john who Smith was healthy, and when Johnny was out,
Speaker 1: he was a primary target for Tanne Hill. So right
Speaker 1: now Ferkes are his tight end seven three And if
Speaker 1: something happens to a J. Brown Julio Jones, yeah, I've
Speaker 1: got first star at seventeen right now. Um, And and
Speaker 1: he was he was higher. I think I'm at fourteen
Speaker 1: before the Julio Jones trade. I still think he there's
Speaker 1: a lot there. And remember Todd Downing, the offensive coordinator,
Speaker 1: was the tight end. He knows, he knows what Fokster
Speaker 1: is all up. So a great backup dart throw tight
Speaker 1: end but uh not as great as Dan Arnold. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to the Jacksonville Jaguars. What has changed? Everything
Speaker 1: has changed, coaches, all new coaches. Urban Meyer makes his
Speaker 1: NFL debut. The offensive coordinator is Darryl Bevel, which is
Speaker 1: nice because we do have a long book on Darryl Bevil.
Speaker 1: We know a lot, we know of what to expect.
Speaker 1: Bebel was a very run heavy coach when he was
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator in Minnesota and at Seattle. But he had
Speaker 1: Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, two Hall of famers, yes
Speaker 1: first ballot probably well, Peterson for sure. For Man he
Speaker 1: probably will be too. Then Detroit brought in Bevil to
Speaker 1: be their offensive coordinator the past two years, and he
Speaker 1: did not have an Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. And
Speaker 1: he had a terrible defense that was just giving up
Speaker 1: tons and tons of points and he did not have
Speaker 1: any longer the luxury of running as much, and Bevel
Speaker 1: ended up ranking over the past two years twenty nine
Speaker 1: and twenty in rushing play percentage, way down from when
Speaker 1: he used to be a top five guy with Adrian
Speaker 1: Peterson and Marshawn Lynch. So I think we're looking at
Speaker 1: the same thing with Bevil. He I think he wants
Speaker 1: to run when he can. But the Jaguars defense is
Speaker 1: gonna be just as bad as the lines defensive, so
Speaker 1: you know, this may be a little bit more of
Speaker 1: a balanced offense under Darryl Bubble. The offensive lines is
Speaker 1: kind of a bumber. The Jaguars return all five starters,
Speaker 1: which I love continuity on the offensive line, but they
Speaker 1: finished twenty second. They ranked two for line play last
Speaker 1: year by Pro Football Focus, and I don't know you
Speaker 1: bring all those guys back. They put the franchise tag
Speaker 1: on left tackle Cam Robinson, who was ben Bait was
Speaker 1: a bad He's had a bad He was a first
Speaker 1: rounder who has had mostly an underwhelming career until last year.
Speaker 1: His mon his money year, and he played at like
Speaker 1: an average NFL level, and out of desperation, they tagged
Speaker 1: him because I think they didn't want to have to
Speaker 1: draft a left tackle and they had plenty of money,
Speaker 1: so why not just tag him and kick that can
Speaker 1: down the road one season on what you're gonna do
Speaker 1: a left tackle? Nothing like a contract year to motivate
Speaker 1: you to average little status. Correct. Jackson will also drafted
Speaker 1: Walker Little in the second round this year. But he's
Speaker 1: a major project and may not start this season, so
Speaker 1: the offensive lines of Bomber, So just keep that in
Speaker 1: mind all other things we're gonna talk about. Let's talk
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. He will be your Week one starter. Obviously.
Speaker 1: He is as pro ready as any rookie quarterback since
Speaker 1: Andrew luck The in Dynasty super Flex. He's the first
Speaker 1: overall pick in rookie drafts in my opinion. And even
Speaker 1: if you don't need a quarterback and you can't trade
Speaker 1: it immediately, the pick you got that you can deal
Speaker 1: him later. You got that arrow in your quill, right,
Speaker 1: I like that. Most of you know a lot about
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence because he's performing on a highly visible stage
Speaker 1: for a long time. But just allow me to reiterate
Speaker 1: his remarkable abilities. Laser arm, incredible football i Q, terrific
Speaker 1: against the blitz and NFL level of pocket poise, better
Speaker 1: wheels than people think. He can run in four or five, six,
Speaker 1: seven touchdowns this season. I think you know, ten years
Speaker 1: from now he's probably not gonna be a mobile quarterback,
Speaker 1: but especially here in these early days, he's got he's
Speaker 1: got wheels, and he can he can run something. Jacksonville
Speaker 1: had the highest passing play percentage last year. Again, all
Speaker 1: those coaches are gone, um and that was with Mike
Speaker 1: Glennon Glennon Gardner, Minshew and Jake Lewton. So you know
Speaker 1: they were forced into passing by this terrible defense last season.
Speaker 1: They're going to see a lot of that. Lawrence is
Speaker 1: gonna throw a lot. Volume will be there, Talent is there.
Speaker 1: He's right now is a DPS Quarterback fifteen, which I
Speaker 1: think feels about right for Trevor Lawrence. People either sort
Speaker 1: of banking on him as a low end QB one
Speaker 1: or a high end backup basically range. Uh, let's go
Speaker 1: to the white outs. We'll talk about laviska channel in
Speaker 1: a few minutes. DJ Chark is an all or nothing
Speaker 1: producer who's a deep downfield guy. He had that dynamite
Speaker 1: season two years ago, so three years ago, he did
Speaker 1: nothing as a rookie. Two years ago, explodes on the
Speaker 1: scene a hundred or thousand yards and came out of nowhere.
Speaker 1: He had like a one hundred yard rookie or and
Speaker 1: put out a thousand yard sophomores season. And then last year, Nah,
Speaker 1: he scored just twice after Week four only managed seven
Speaker 1: hundred yards. He was he was ding up all year
Speaker 1: long after he was Now he gets a big, armed,
Speaker 1: accurate quarterback, and I think Chark is going to be
Speaker 1: a fascinating guy with some serious upside because of the
Speaker 1: deep connection he can have with Trevor Lawrence. His ADP
Speaker 1: right now, his wide receiver twenty eight. That's round seven.
Speaker 1: He's the first receiver taken among the Jaguars by you
Speaker 1: fantasy drafters. Marvin Jones has been a steady fantasy producer,
Speaker 1: but his talent levels clearly behind Chark and Channel, and
Speaker 1: I worried that he's gonna have some invisible games, which
Speaker 1: has always been a problem for him in both Detroit
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati earlier in his career. Now, in fairness, Marvin
Speaker 1: Jones always lives up to his ADP, in fact surpasses
Speaker 1: his ADP. Nobody ever wants to draft him, and then
Speaker 1: you got him on your team and he's like almost
Speaker 1: every week starter and more often than not, you get
Speaker 1: something from him. So right now is ADP is the
Speaker 1: twelfth round. I think he's receiver seventy one. I didn't
Speaker 1: write down, but as I recall, I think he was
Speaker 1: receiver seventy one off the board. That seems pretty good
Speaker 1: from Rvin Jones. I'll buy all day at that range.
Speaker 1: For sure. We're not even gonna talk about tight ends,
Speaker 1: including Tim Tebow because in my estimation, they don't have
Speaker 1: any running backs. Tim Tebow is going to score the
Speaker 1: first touchdown of the year for the Jaguars. I'm putting
Speaker 1: it on wax right now. I love it. I want
Speaker 1: to see the problem. Love it, kevn't. It's gonna be
Speaker 1: but BS two. It's not even gonna be like a
Speaker 1: you know, like run it in. It'll light end past battern.
Speaker 1: It's yeah, it's gonna be some subject. It'll be like
Speaker 1: some jet sweep to the tight end. Yeah. Uh, James,
Speaker 1: we're gonna We're gonna circle back to James Robinson in
Speaker 1: a minute. Let me let's talk Trevis e t n
Speaker 1: amazing burst, so many big highlight players in college. Shockingly strong,
Speaker 1: breaks tackles, elusive, good receiver, but probably not a workhorse back.
Speaker 1: His last twenty carry game was in went to eighteen
Speaker 1: for Travis e TN. Was he in high school but
Speaker 1: almost Um. The worry is that he's going to fall
Speaker 1: into this eight touch game, ten touch game. Twelve touch
Speaker 1: game and it's gonna be hard to get fantasy value
Speaker 1: out of that. He's gonna be like Reggie Bush. That's yes,
Speaker 1: that's a great comparison. Reggie Bush was never an ongoing
Speaker 1: fantasy factor, reliable fantasy factor because he just didn't get
Speaker 1: the ball enough. Um. But that's enough too, seriously, Mescal,
Speaker 1: James Robinson, we'll talk about a minute now. Maybe we're wrong.
Speaker 1: And if if ETN could get into the fourteen, sixteen,
Speaker 1: even eighteen will be great touch territory. Etn could be
Speaker 1: a star because he's so talented and he could reward
Speaker 1: his owners. If you think he's going to get up
Speaker 1: to that level, he really needs to be active in
Speaker 1: the passing game weekend in week out, four or five
Speaker 1: catches consistently to really live up to his ADP to
Speaker 1: get like Reggie Bush needed that because the Carrs weren't
Speaker 1: always there for Reggie Bush. That's such a good comparison.
Speaker 1: I haven't heard anybody else make that, and that's a
Speaker 1: great one. Let's talk about the riskiest player at his
Speaker 1: current ADP, and it's James Robinson running back twenty two
Speaker 1: round four. Uh. He was found money last year, but
Speaker 1: I don't see a repeat happening. Teams who love their
Speaker 1: running back and have a need at like every other position,
Speaker 1: like the Jaguars do, don't spend a first round pick
Speaker 1: on a running back. E t N is going to
Speaker 1: factor in enough to chisel away serious value from James Robinson. Now,
Speaker 1: nobody expects Robinson to account for eight six percent of
Speaker 1: the team's rushing attempts again like he did last year.
Speaker 1: And if you recall, like through something like we twelve,
Speaker 1: he had all but two of the carries for the
Speaker 1: team and it was only the very end of the
Speaker 1: year when a few other people got in and got
Speaker 1: some carries. Um. But the question is how far down
Speaker 1: is he gonna go? How far James Robinson is gonna
Speaker 1: get less work? But how much less work is it
Speaker 1: going to be? I think it's gonna be a significant
Speaker 1: amount because E t N is about a grillion time
Speaker 1: times better than James Robinson. Grillian Grilli a lot grilling. Wait, no,
Speaker 1: isn't hit hold on, it's nine times. That's how much
Speaker 1: a Grillian is. A grillion is nine times better than
Speaker 1: James Robinson. UM. One other X factor that I haven't
Speaker 1: heard anybody say about James Robinson. This all new coaching
Speaker 1: staff has no allegiance to James Robinson. They didn't pick him.
Speaker 1: They spent their first round pick and their second pick.
Speaker 1: Urban Meyer spent his second ever NFL pick on Travis E.
Speaker 1: T N. You know, no a lot, no allegiance to
Speaker 1: James Robinson. Best man can just win that job. And
Speaker 1: if the best man wins that job, it's not James Robinson. Well, well,
Speaker 1: last I checked, they were basically right next to each
Speaker 1: other in ADP, So gun to head, you gotta gotta
Speaker 1: have one around or I'm pretty sure that's where they're at.
Speaker 1: Who do you want most formats? I'm taking Travis E.
Speaker 1: T N now in a guillotine league format where I
Speaker 1: I don't I don't want to sweat week one. You know,
Speaker 1: rookies are always a way more dangerous there, and I
Speaker 1: don't know if Travis E. T N is as much
Speaker 1: of a factor in week one as he will be
Speaker 1: in November and December when he's learned all the nuances
Speaker 1: of being a third down back pass catching, the route
Speaker 1: running and all the things that will go into that
Speaker 1: good point player with the most upside compared to current
Speaker 1: ADP not close Lavishka Channel current ADP is the tenth
Speaker 1: round wide receiver forty four. He is the best receiver
Speaker 1: on the Jaguars, terrific down the stretch last year. Wow,
Speaker 1: would everybody in mini camp is this past month, Channel
Speaker 1: looks ready to explode With Trevor Lawrence. You may have
Speaker 1: forgotten unless you heard us talking about sophomore receivers a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago on Fantasy Football Weekly that he
Speaker 1: scored four times in the final five weeks of last year,
Speaker 1: and from week twelve forward he was wide receiver twenty
Speaker 1: two chel catching passes from Jake Lewton and Gardner Minshew
Speaker 1: and Mike Glennon, and he was why do you see
Speaker 1: her twenty two and he's going up the ports? Why
Speaker 1: do you see her forty four right now? And now
Speaker 1: he's luten free. He's luten free. I did forget that.
Speaker 1: Thank you for him healing Cole now with the Jets
Speaker 1: stole a lot of his work from the slot last year.
Speaker 1: He's gone so and he leaves behind four snaps from
Speaker 1: the slot for Laviska Channel. He has top twelve upside
Speaker 1: Channel does if they decide to focus that passing game
Speaker 1: on his freakish athletic ability, and you know they're gonna
Speaker 1: try to give him a couple of carries per game
Speaker 1: most weeks and uh and he returns kicks to those
Speaker 1: don't always produce points, but sometimes they do. It's a
Speaker 1: nice something. It's nice to have that option. Chanel's got
Speaker 1: I'm i'm I love him as to I'll produce his
Speaker 1: wide receiver for ADP Channel's Fascinating Player. Next week, we
Speaker 1: wrap up the a f C with the trip through
Speaker 1: the a f C West Brian. That means, um we
Speaker 1: get to talk about my favorite dark horse team to
Speaker 1: make the Super Bowl from the a f C, the
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Chargers. H that is where I'm at. If
Speaker 1: I'm making a bit odds implied, of course, and I would,
Speaker 1: I would parlay it with air Bear Justin Herbert for
Speaker 1: m v PNP because if that happens, air Bear is
Speaker 1: gonna have an m v P type season and he
Speaker 1: certainly is capable. Yeah. Now I look forward to that.
Speaker 1: They got to get through their own division in the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: which is no small task, but anything happens to Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes and that helps pave the way. And you know,
Speaker 1: if you think back to week two, and I probably
Speaker 1: shouldn't put so much stock in this one game. It's
Speaker 1: five minutes before kickoff of week two to Rod Taylor
Speaker 1: gets the misinjection from his uh from from his coach
Speaker 1: and gets a collapsed along or whatever it was. It
Speaker 1: was basically like John Travolta giving um and um and
Speaker 1: here comes here. They are facing the Chiefs and Patrick
Speaker 1: mahomes and justin air Bear comes in cold and nearly
Speaker 1: beats the Chiefs in that game. It's um. It's only
Speaker 1: one game, small sample size. And remember the Chargers, by
Speaker 1: the way, they won their final four or five games
Speaker 1: of last year, and and there were seven win team
Speaker 1: and their head coach costs them at least two or
Speaker 1: three wins by himself, Anthony Lynn, and he's gone. So
Speaker 1: there's a there's a lot to like for those Chargers.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a fun division West. It almost always is.
Speaker 1: We'll break that down next Weekly. Thanks you, thank you
Speaker 1: for listening all the way to the end of a
Speaker 1: thirty nine ishue minute podcast, and we will talk to
Speaker 1: you next week. Everybody, Bye bye. Fantasy Football Weekly is
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