WEBVTT - SignalFlare.ai’s Lukianoff on Data Analytics, AI

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to Chopping It Up. I'm your host, Mike Hanlon,

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<v Speaker 1>the senior restaurant and food service analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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<v Speaker 1>Our research and that of bi's five hundred analysts around

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<v Speaker 1>the globe can be found exclusively on the Bloomberg terminal.

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<v Speaker 1>If you enjoy the pod, I'd love it if you

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<v Speaker 1>could leave us a review on Apple or Spotify. Today

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<v Speaker 1>we're joined by Mike Luciano, founder and CEO of signal

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<v Speaker 1>Flare dot ai. Signal Flare is a decision intelligence platform

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<v Speaker 1>for restaurants and other industries that translates data into decision

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<v Speaker 1>frameworks using AI and machine learning models. The company was

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<v Speaker 1>the twenty twenty four Snowflake Startup Challenge winner. Welcome back

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<v Speaker 1>to the podcast.

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<v Speaker 2>Mike, Oh, it's my pleasure of Michael. Good to see you,

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<v Speaker 2>good to hear you.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I was going through my notes yesterday. I can't

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<v Speaker 1>believe it was three years ago?

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<v Speaker 2>Is it really?

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<v Speaker 1>Yea three years ago? You were you were episode number four?

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<v Speaker 2>All right, well I was. I was honored then honored

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<v Speaker 2>to be back, so thanks for thanks for having me again.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, I always love talking about their industry with you,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's great to have you back on episode seventy six,

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<v Speaker 1>UH signal flair. Like I said, three years now, time flies?

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<v Speaker 1>What inspired you to start the company?

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<v Speaker 2>So, you know, i'd been as as you know, you

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<v Speaker 2>know this, I'm on middle of my my third decade

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<v Speaker 2>doing UH data and analytics for restaurants. And when I

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<v Speaker 2>started in it, there weren't that many people who cared

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<v Speaker 2>that much about data for restaurants, especially pulling it out

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<v Speaker 2>of pulling out of the point of sale and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>figuring out what it all means and building building models, UH,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, can predict things. UH. And the world's changed

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<v Speaker 2>a lot since then. So and this is you know,

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<v Speaker 2>that was a few a few companies ago, and you

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<v Speaker 2>know the last one I uh, I sold and exited.

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<v Speaker 2>And then you know, I took some time off, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>around twenty twenty, and turned out that some other people

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<v Speaker 2>took some time off around them too, And as I

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<v Speaker 2>started to analyze data, because people were still coming to

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<v Speaker 2>me to say, you know, can you analyze this? And

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<v Speaker 2>so forth, and a lot of the old methods, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>when demand patterns just completely change like they did during

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<v Speaker 2>that time, and even trade areas completely changed as people

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<v Speaker 2>changed working from home and you know, and so you know,

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<v Speaker 2>I had to come at a lot of these problems

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<v Speaker 2>from a completely different in a completely different way. You know.

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<v Speaker 2>So instead of using a lot of these linear models

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<v Speaker 2>that look at trends over time, say, okay, well, how

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<v Speaker 2>do I change both the statistical approaches to more of

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<v Speaker 2>a machine learning approach but also the data sets. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>how can I instead of just starting with the point

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<v Speaker 2>of sale data, how do I pull data from mobile

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<v Speaker 2>you know, mobile digital platforms, right, Uh, you know, cell

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<v Speaker 2>phone devices to understand you know where people are shopping

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<v Speaker 2>when they're shopping there, and you know who they are

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<v Speaker 2>right going into every restaurant and every retailer, and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>and then you know, bringing in local economic data and uh,

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<v Speaker 2>credit card panels, just masses of external data you that

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<v Speaker 2>tells us more things about restaurant consumers before I start

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<v Speaker 2>layering and the point of sale data. Uh. And what

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<v Speaker 2>I found was two things, right, One is that it

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<v Speaker 2>builds an infinitely more robust model. And in two, instead

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<v Speaker 2>of always looking in the rear view mirror, you can

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<v Speaker 2>start to layer in things that are forward looking. So

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<v Speaker 2>for instance, when you know when gas prices started to spike,

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<v Speaker 2>right before you know the inflation like really went nuts.

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<v Speaker 2>We were able to take that information because we know,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, which restaurants are more dependent on people who

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<v Speaker 2>drive more. We can get all of that from from

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<v Speaker 2>the data, and we know and we can calculate what

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<v Speaker 2>people's disposable income is, not just uh you know, not

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<v Speaker 2>just you know what the areas, uh you know income

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<v Speaker 2>levels are. Uh. So when we can factor that in

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<v Speaker 2>and we know that some of these things are leading indicators, uh,

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<v Speaker 2>then we can use that data to say, you know

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<v Speaker 2>what these restaurants are the ones they are going to

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<v Speaker 2>be having trouble in you know, three to five months.

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<v Speaker 2>So what kind of strategies to you employee? Right? Do

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<v Speaker 2>you do you do discounting? Right? Or do you send

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<v Speaker 2>different messaging? But when you start to use it in

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<v Speaker 2>that framework, then you know, then it becomes uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>planning tools, not just you know, backward looking analysis. So

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<v Speaker 2>so so long, long story short. I did that for

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<v Speaker 2>a while and really moved it out with with some

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<v Speaker 2>chains more on a consulting basis, and about two years

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<v Speaker 2>ago I said, you know what this is. This this

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<v Speaker 2>is a platform, right, this is this is a much

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<v Speaker 2>different thing than what I've done in the past in

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<v Speaker 2>terms of being able to make it, you know, scalable

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<v Speaker 2>and accessible to like really any size restaurant. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 2>really cool.

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<v Speaker 1>What's how many units does your smallest customer have?

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<v Speaker 2>I think our smallest is a unit. You know, we're

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<v Speaker 2>in the process now of taking all of that data

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<v Speaker 2>and putting it into a platform that's going to be

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<v Speaker 2>a lot easier to access, you know, even I think

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<v Speaker 2>to independent restaurants because the way that the way that

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<v Speaker 2>you had to operate the data in the past, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>to do the kind of work that we're doing, and

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<v Speaker 2>we had to pull in all of their clean point

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<v Speaker 2>of sale data and so forth. But now we know

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<v Speaker 2>what's actually going on, you know, in the surrounding community,

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<v Speaker 2>right we know, you know how people are spending and

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<v Speaker 2>what the trends are, and you know what segments they're

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<v Speaker 2>spending and how much they're spending and all of that.

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<v Speaker 2>So uh and we're putting uh, you know, an AI

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<v Speaker 2>interface over it that also leverages all of the major

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<v Speaker 2>major models. So you know, by doing that, we're able

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<v Speaker 2>to cross section our machine learning models, you know, with

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<v Speaker 2>the broader market understanding. And you know, you know, before

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<v Speaker 2>I was a in restaurant data and tech. I was.

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<v Speaker 2>I was restaurant operator. So the idea that we can

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<v Speaker 2>you know, go from you know, early days working only

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<v Speaker 2>with the very largest mega chains to now being able

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<v Speaker 2>to provide similar things all the way down to small

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<v Speaker 2>chains and independence and that that excites me, right, not

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<v Speaker 2>just for you know, for the technology, but for what

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<v Speaker 2>we were able to do for the industry.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's really cool. So you know, as I mentioned,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a decision intelligence platform. Did you always envision it

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<v Speaker 1>to be that or was it? Did it start you

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<v Speaker 1>know with menu pricing? You know, was there one problem

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<v Speaker 1>that you were most about solving back when you started it?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So you know, I think you know, as you know,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know a lot of folks who I've worked

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<v Speaker 2>with over the over the years, you know, I've built

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of pricing models, right, so you know a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of you know, my my last company you know,

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<v Speaker 2>still is the pricing engine for for a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>national chains out there. So you know the methodology of

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<v Speaker 2>how you apply sophisticated pricing algorithms to restaurants. It was

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<v Speaker 2>the starting point. But the way that I was building it,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, in order to build a really robust pricing model.

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<v Speaker 2>You need to not just understand, you know, what people

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<v Speaker 2>are paying for the price, and you know, it's not

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<v Speaker 2>just about competitive benchmarking. That's that's a part of it,

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<v Speaker 2>but you really need to understand what the fundamental demand

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<v Speaker 2>is around each restaurant so that you're not just saying,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, okay, how is this trending or how do

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<v Speaker 2>I compare against them? But how do you layer everything

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<v Speaker 2>from you know, sentiment to macroeconomic, microeconomic, you know, competitor

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<v Speaker 2>performance data. How do you take all of those things?

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<v Speaker 2>And once you bring all those things in, then the

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<v Speaker 2>kinds of questions that you can answer go way beyond pricing, right,

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<v Speaker 2>it goes to everything about you know, how do I

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<v Speaker 2>optimize my market? Right? How do I look into new markets?

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<v Speaker 2>You know, how do I start planning budget planning? And

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<v Speaker 2>how do I do scenario analysis, you know, to to

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<v Speaker 2>be able to react or to prepare for contingencies you know,

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<v Speaker 2>in the competitive market or in the macroeconomic landscape. I think,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, what I've been doing my whole career really

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<v Speaker 2>has been what I call that last mile of turning

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<v Speaker 2>the data into the decision. But in the past, you

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<v Speaker 2>know that had to really happen by bringing insights and

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<v Speaker 2>visuals and summary data to a really small our analysts,

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<v Speaker 2>and all of that is is changing now because you know,

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<v Speaker 2>when you can bring that kind of summary data in

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<v Speaker 2>and have it read by an l M or or

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<v Speaker 2>or an analyst agent, it need to be trained, right.

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<v Speaker 2>It's still like having you know, an intern, you need

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<v Speaker 2>to you need to bring along and teach. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>moving so quickly that I'm just every day I get

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<v Speaker 2>more surprised and impressed and excited about what those you know,

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<v Speaker 2>what those possibilities are. Yeah, that's cool.

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<v Speaker 1>And you were kind enough to invite me to your

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<v Speaker 1>AI Restaurants summit recently. It was a great event and

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<v Speaker 1>I learned a lot, but a couple of things stood out. One,

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<v Speaker 1>can you talk a little bit about why data quality

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<v Speaker 1>is so important for AI and machine learning projects? I

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<v Speaker 1>was kind of floored about the number of product projects

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<v Speaker 1>that fail due to data quality issues.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, yes, no, really really important. And it's funny because

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<v Speaker 2>you know, maybe a year ago I was at another

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<v Speaker 2>conference and you know, I heard somebody talking about you

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<v Speaker 2>know how oh well, now in the age of AI,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you don't need to worry about the data

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<v Speaker 2>anymore because a I will just clean it up and

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<v Speaker 2>it's like nothing could be farther from the truth, right

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<v Speaker 2>there are you know, there are ways that you can

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<v Speaker 2>use AI to help you, you know, clean it up

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<v Speaker 2>and so forth. But you really the standard in the

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<v Speaker 2>bar for data, you know, cleanliness and context and and

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<v Speaker 2>usability is higher, not lower, right, because what an ll

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<v Speaker 2>M will do, right, what these you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the chat GPTs and the clauds and all these they

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<v Speaker 2>will give you an answer that sounds wonderful, right, even

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<v Speaker 2>if there's no data to support it. They they you know,

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<v Speaker 2>what's amazing about them, right, is that they can get creative, right,

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<v Speaker 2>as creative as a person. So you know, the data

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<v Speaker 2>might not be there right, or it might interpret it

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<v Speaker 2>completely wrong, but the pros sounds wonderful, right. And if

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<v Speaker 2>you've got you know, crappy data that's not structured, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know, in fact, really what they're best at is

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<v Speaker 2>reading text documents. You know, if all of your data

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<v Speaker 2>is in a data warehouse, you need another layer over

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<v Speaker 2>that to say, okay, well how do I summarize this

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<v Speaker 2>and how do I chunk it out? And how do

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<v Speaker 2>I make sure that it's in usable nuggets, so that

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<v Speaker 2>then the machine can can can interpret it. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>people are using you know, these for calculations, but they're

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<v Speaker 2>not good at calculating. You know. Maybe it's a unpopular

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<v Speaker 2>you know fact, right, I don't know popular opinion. It's

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<v Speaker 2>a fact. They can invoke tools, right that can help

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<v Speaker 2>to do a calculation. But when it comes down to it, right,

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<v Speaker 2>I think you know the stats that I put out there.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, look, you know eighty percent of of AI

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<v Speaker 2>projects are still failing, and seventy five percent of those

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<v Speaker 2>are failing because they didn't get the data, right.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, staggering numbers. Yeah, and you mentioned the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>ll ms are terrible at math. We also discuss some

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<v Speaker 1>other concerning issues, including hallucinations and excessive praise.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it is interesting how you know they can be

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<v Speaker 2>tuned right, and you can tell it, you know, don't

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<v Speaker 2>don't praise me, or you can tell it, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, you can try and give it a personality,

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<v Speaker 2>which is fascinating. But yeah, I mean hallucinations is just

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<v Speaker 2>you know, a fancy way of you know, of saying

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it just it's just b s's right, their

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<v Speaker 2>language models, right, they read you know everything that's ever

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<v Speaker 2>been written, and then they figure out how to you know,

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<v Speaker 2>you ask a question and then it's you know, searching

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<v Speaker 2>this repository to try and say it in the way

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<v Speaker 2>or the style that you specified. So you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>and you know an example of like you know, bad

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<v Speaker 2>mathroom an l M. Right, it's like you know, we

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<v Speaker 2>we we're constantly doing you know, tests and validations, but

0:13:13.400 --> 0:13:15.880
<v Speaker 2>you you don't know what the answer is that you're

0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:19.320
<v Speaker 2>going to get because it's all probabilistic, right. What you know,

0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:23.160
<v Speaker 2>what we do in analytics is deterministic. Right. You need

0:13:23.240 --> 0:13:25.760
<v Speaker 2>a number, right that you've got some level of certainty

0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 2>and there's this and there's a clear calculation to it.

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:30.760
<v Speaker 2>You know. L l M s are all you know, Hey,

0:13:30.960 --> 0:13:34.160
<v Speaker 2>if you ask this question, then the probability of this, this,

0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.360
<v Speaker 2>this and that right ur X and y and that's

0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 2>what all these sort of computational nodes are doing as

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:46.120
<v Speaker 2>it's doing the calculation. So, uh, you know, so if

0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:48.679
<v Speaker 2>you telling it, you know, an l l M without

0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:51.400
<v Speaker 2>any more instructions, you know, hey, tell me what the

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.640
<v Speaker 2>year of a year sales are for you know, X,

0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:58.280
<v Speaker 2>Y and Z company. You know twenty you know this

0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:02.000
<v Speaker 2>year versus last year. The most likely answer you're going

0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:06.000
<v Speaker 2>to get out of that is going to be something

0:14:06.040 --> 0:14:10.240
<v Speaker 2>that says, oh, well, you're down about you know, fifty percent,

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 2>you know versus last year. Why because we're about halfway

0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 2>through the year, right, So it's comparing this year, you know,

0:14:17.080 --> 0:14:20.360
<v Speaker 2>the last year without any more you know, clarity than that.

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.920
<v Speaker 2>So as you're either figuring out how to prompt it

0:14:23.960 --> 0:14:26.360
<v Speaker 2>and ask the questions correctly, or you're trying to figure

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.280
<v Speaker 2>out how to do the engineering in the background, you know,

0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.000
<v Speaker 2>the things that the ways that we talk about things

0:14:32.040 --> 0:14:34.520
<v Speaker 2>and the common vernacular that we use, you know in

0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:37.160
<v Speaker 2>this industry, as you know, it's like, okay, well, what's

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:40.320
<v Speaker 2>a check average? You know, as fifteen different operators, what

0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:42.800
<v Speaker 2>you know what that means to them? Right? How are

0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:47.280
<v Speaker 2>you calculating that check average? It's all right, Well, you

0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:50.080
<v Speaker 2>kind of need a single standard, right, or a very

0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 2>clear definition of all of these things in order for

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:54.720
<v Speaker 2>them to work and to learn.

0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:58.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I learned at the event that it's important on

0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:00.680
<v Speaker 1>us to ask the right question. That's you get better

0:15:00.720 --> 0:15:05.080
<v Speaker 1>at using these lll ms. One of the subjects that

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.760
<v Speaker 1>I brought up was just concern about you know, security

0:15:09.840 --> 0:15:13.360
<v Speaker 1>of your data and what the lll ms are doing

0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 1>with your data. Actually saw a great tweet today. It

0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:19.800
<v Speaker 1>was Stealing from one person is called theft. Stealing from

0:15:19.840 --> 0:15:22.040
<v Speaker 1>everyone all at once is called chat GBT.

0:15:22.600 --> 0:15:25.360
<v Speaker 2>Yes, no, I think. I think that this is a

0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:32.960
<v Speaker 2>reality of where we are. It's really important because you know, people, organizations, right,

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:36.480
<v Speaker 2>first of all, it's moving so quickly, and you know,

0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:43.160
<v Speaker 2>once any you know, analyst, employee, marketing, you know, administrator,

0:15:43.200 --> 0:15:46.440
<v Speaker 2>whoever it is in the organization, once they start using it,

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:49.480
<v Speaker 2>they start to find all of these ways that, oh

0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.560
<v Speaker 2>this can actually save me. You know this amount of

0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.440
<v Speaker 2>time you know doing these three, four or five tasks.

0:15:56.160 --> 0:16:00.320
<v Speaker 2>So it's addictive very quickly, right because people or like

0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:02.000
<v Speaker 2>I can do a better job with it. You know,

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:05.200
<v Speaker 2>it's one of the best productivity tools you know, invented

0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:09.120
<v Speaker 2>probably since you know, since Lotus one, two three, right

0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:13.160
<v Speaker 2>precursor to to Excel for those of who don't know. So,

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:20.280
<v Speaker 2>if you don't have a policy for enterprise level, which

0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:26.520
<v Speaker 2>typically right the the g p T, the l M

0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.480
<v Speaker 2>will say that in their enterprise versions, you know, none

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:33.440
<v Speaker 2>of your data is used to train their models. There's

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.520
<v Speaker 2>another way of using it, which is, if you use

0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:38.520
<v Speaker 2>the A p I S in your own environment, then

0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:41.760
<v Speaker 2>you know, there's no backward propagation, right because it's it's

0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:45.280
<v Speaker 2>being calculated in yours and you're using you know, you're

0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:47.280
<v Speaker 2>getting the benefit of it, but there's no way that

0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.880
<v Speaker 2>it can actually backward propagate, which is, you know, which

0:16:49.920 --> 0:16:54.160
<v Speaker 2>is the better the better process. But if you have

0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:58.000
<v Speaker 2>no policy, right and you're not, you know, and then

0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:02.120
<v Speaker 2>if people are taking your company data and just using

0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:06.560
<v Speaker 2>it on a free version or a personal version, all

0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:10.600
<v Speaker 2>of that information is being you know, you're you're you're

0:17:10.640 --> 0:17:14.440
<v Speaker 2>donating to the you know, to the broader knowledge base

0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 2>of the world right with whatever you put in there.

0:17:18.440 --> 0:17:22.560
<v Speaker 2>So so yes, you need to be looking at enterprise

0:17:22.640 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 2>grade tools to be able to use this, but don't

0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:29.160
<v Speaker 2>fool yourself that, you know, if you're not using it,

0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.359
<v Speaker 2>then uh, you know that then you're safe. You know,

0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:35.000
<v Speaker 2>if you don't have a policy in place, then you're

0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:39.720
<v Speaker 2>probably in more security danger than than if you have

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:41.600
<v Speaker 2>one and you're actually teaching people the right way to

0:17:41.680 --> 0:17:42.000
<v Speaker 2>use it.

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.720
<v Speaker 1>Great, let's switch gears. With all the inflation we've seen

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:49.919
<v Speaker 1>since twenty twenty, pricing menus down to the unit level

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:54.520
<v Speaker 1>is more important than ever. And you know, I guess

0:17:55.160 --> 0:17:57.120
<v Speaker 1>what I'm wondering is what chains are doing it right?

0:17:57.200 --> 0:17:57.640
<v Speaker 1>Right now?

0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:01.679
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think you know, without naming name specifically, but

0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:05.880
<v Speaker 2>I think that the things that you see are common

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:10.240
<v Speaker 2>with success are you know, those that I think are

0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 2>are actually well. One thing is that, you know, what

0:18:14.200 --> 0:18:18.879
<v Speaker 2>we keep on seeing that qs RUH is lagging, you know,

0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:25.080
<v Speaker 2>even entry level casual dining and and fast casual and

0:18:25.200 --> 0:18:28.680
<v Speaker 2>when economic times are uncertain, usually we expect that people

0:18:28.760 --> 0:18:30.680
<v Speaker 2>are going to trade all the way down to QSR

0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:32.960
<v Speaker 2>because it's the least expensive option. But that is not

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.639
<v Speaker 2>what we're seeing, right. We're seeing that it's you know,

0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:38.320
<v Speaker 2>it's you know, it's a lot of the fast casuals

0:18:38.359 --> 0:18:40.960
<v Speaker 2>and so forth that are doing a lot better, especially

0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:45.560
<v Speaker 2>if the cuisine that they're serving up is not yet

0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:48.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, at a saturation point and in a lot

0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:51.359
<v Speaker 2>of their markets. Right, I think what the consumer is

0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:56.200
<v Speaker 2>telling us is that, you know, they are making choices,

0:18:57.040 --> 0:18:59.680
<v Speaker 2>but their choices are being guided not by what's the

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 2>least expensive thing that I can get, but what actually

0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:04.600
<v Speaker 2>represents the value, Right, what's going to what's going to

0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:06.560
<v Speaker 2>give me better service, what's going to be the taste

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:08.720
<v Speaker 2>profile that I want, because if I'm going to dine out,

0:19:08.840 --> 0:19:11.400
<v Speaker 2>you know, maybe less often, I want to make sure

0:19:11.480 --> 0:19:14.040
<v Speaker 2>that those occasions that I am dining out, you know,

0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:15.320
<v Speaker 2>I'm actually getting what I want.

0:19:15.600 --> 0:19:18.280
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that one has caught us by surprise over the

0:19:18.359 --> 0:19:22.080
<v Speaker 1>last five months, the fact that casual dining and it's

0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:25.200
<v Speaker 1>broad based. It's not just Chili's, it's broad based. Most

0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:29.119
<v Speaker 1>of the casual dining chains we cover, you know, Cheesecake Factory,

0:19:29.400 --> 0:19:32.520
<v Speaker 1>Texas Roadhouse still crushing it, Dartin Cracker Barrel, all these

0:19:32.600 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>chains are now performing qs R. Part of it is

0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:39.960
<v Speaker 1>they're they're lapping easier comp but they're being them by

0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:44.000
<v Speaker 1>a wide margin. Man. We haven't seen that, you know,

0:19:44.119 --> 0:19:47.479
<v Speaker 1>in a market, in a slower restaurant spending market. I mean,

0:19:47.520 --> 0:19:49.640
<v Speaker 1>I don't think I've never seen it, you know, since

0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:50.600
<v Speaker 1>I've been in the business.

0:19:51.920 --> 0:19:54.240
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, the other thing that we really need

0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:59.240
<v Speaker 2>to think about in context, right, is how how the

0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 2>industry shrank and then grew, you know, from twenty nineteen

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:09.400
<v Speaker 2>to now and where it's going. You know, we all

0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:13.720
<v Speaker 2>remember back in mid COVID eight times, right, you know,

0:20:14.200 --> 0:20:17.960
<v Speaker 2>staggering numbers of closings. Right, It's like, okay, like twenty

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:21.520
<v Speaker 2>percent of the industry was closing. And but you know

0:20:21.560 --> 0:20:24.159
<v Speaker 2>what if you had a drive through, you know you

0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:26.440
<v Speaker 2>were living you know, you were living the good life.

0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:29.840
<v Speaker 2>You know, you had you know, there was you know,

0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:32.040
<v Speaker 2>there were a few businesses that were as good as

0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:34.679
<v Speaker 2>you knows as having a drive through right in an

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:38.840
<v Speaker 2>underserved market, right. And what ended up happening is that

0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:41.959
<v Speaker 2>unit account started to grow, but it was all limited service.

0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:46.399
<v Speaker 2>So the ratio of limited service to full service restaurants

0:20:46.960 --> 0:20:49.960
<v Speaker 2>is completely different than it was back in twenty eighteen,

0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:57.840
<v Speaker 2>twenty nineteen, big overbuilding of you know, of limited service restaurants,

0:20:58.680 --> 0:21:01.919
<v Speaker 2>not not as much, you know, catching up with the

0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:06.400
<v Speaker 2>full service. So you know, and yeah, and the way

0:21:06.440 --> 0:21:09.000
<v Speaker 2>that the trade areas you know change, right. You know,

0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:12.040
<v Speaker 2>people sort of you know move to more you know,

0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:15.040
<v Speaker 2>more rural where they could because their workplaces would do it.

0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:17.119
<v Speaker 2>Maybe they had to move a little bit closer, but

0:21:17.400 --> 0:21:22.280
<v Speaker 2>you know, not so much into city centers. So all

0:21:22.320 --> 0:21:26.520
<v Speaker 2>of those factors together, right, are showing these traditional metrics

0:21:26.560 --> 0:21:32.480
<v Speaker 2>of same store sales as opposed to total industry growth right

0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:37.160
<v Speaker 2>or total industry usage. They are two very different looks

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:42.919
<v Speaker 2>at the industry, right, because the the saturation of markets,

0:21:43.080 --> 0:21:46.680
<v Speaker 2>especially when you look at different cuisine types and uh

0:21:46.880 --> 0:21:51.639
<v Speaker 2>service styles. Because population growth is also, you know, is

0:21:51.680 --> 0:21:54.240
<v Speaker 2>not near what it was five years ago either, So

0:21:54.960 --> 0:22:00.240
<v Speaker 2>rest the restaurant build build out is outpacing population growth

0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:02.560
<v Speaker 2>by about you know, about five x.

0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:07.000
<v Speaker 1>Wow, five x is a lot. What I found interesting

0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:11.040
<v Speaker 1>about twenty twenty as well, is like QSR had that

0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:14.600
<v Speaker 1>year where they were able to raise prices pretty aggressively

0:22:14.680 --> 0:22:17.159
<v Speaker 1>because they were the only game in town, and so

0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:20.919
<v Speaker 1>I feel like their pricing got ahead of itself faster

0:22:21.520 --> 0:22:24.280
<v Speaker 1>than it did for some of their full service competitors.

0:22:24.680 --> 0:22:27.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think, I think you're right. And it wasn't

0:22:27.400 --> 0:22:31.919
<v Speaker 2>just the menu prices. It was also that they eliminated

0:22:32.520 --> 0:22:36.880
<v Speaker 2>every discount, right, So all the dollar menus disappeared, right,

0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:39.919
<v Speaker 2>all of those you know, all of those you know,

0:22:40.000 --> 0:22:42.280
<v Speaker 2>special things that you get, you know, if they gave

0:22:42.320 --> 0:22:46.960
<v Speaker 2>you some price certainty inside those restaurants for some period

0:22:47.040 --> 0:22:50.640
<v Speaker 2>of time, all of those just just vanished. Right. That's

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:55.920
<v Speaker 2>starting to come back, But they sort of retrained customers, right,

0:22:56.200 --> 0:22:58.960
<v Speaker 2>They started, you know, started to find things that were

0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:01.639
<v Speaker 2>you know, oh well, I can get better food you

0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:05.080
<v Speaker 2>know all the time you know, at these different types

0:23:05.119 --> 0:23:11.159
<v Speaker 2>of uh, you know, restaurants, you know, also limited service

0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:13.959
<v Speaker 2>you know. But I but I like it better, right,

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:19.119
<v Speaker 2>So it really I think it created something that you know,

0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:22.600
<v Speaker 2>I mean, we'll see if people revert. But qs R

0:23:22.680 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 2>every day is getting more and more like off premise

0:23:27.119 --> 0:23:30.200
<v Speaker 2>grocery you know, or you know, and even the convenience

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:32.920
<v Speaker 2>stores are getting you know, getting better, you know at

0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:37.560
<v Speaker 2>you know, really upping their game. So those options, right,

0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:39.320
<v Speaker 2>you know, competing there where it used to be the

0:23:39.359 --> 0:23:43.240
<v Speaker 2>safe the safe bet you know, you know, recession resistant,

0:23:44.040 --> 0:23:46.040
<v Speaker 2>it's not really that that's not really the case anymore

0:23:46.080 --> 0:23:47.960
<v Speaker 2>now that they seem to be more vulnerable, you know.

0:23:48.040 --> 0:23:50.399
<v Speaker 1>And and I want to kind of hit on one

0:23:50.400 --> 0:23:54.200
<v Speaker 1>of the points you made about the industry and how

0:23:54.520 --> 0:23:58.520
<v Speaker 1>much it's growing faster and how much faster it's growing

0:23:58.520 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 1>than population growth. So as everybody knows there's a lot

0:24:01.640 --> 0:24:06.840
<v Speaker 1>of bankruptcies last year, you know, are we are we

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:11.440
<v Speaker 1>still overbuilt even after these bankruptcies or are we approaching

0:24:11.560 --> 0:24:13.879
<v Speaker 1>over built? Where where does it stand today?

0:24:15.520 --> 0:24:18.480
<v Speaker 2>So you know, we got updated data that compared you know,

0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:22.000
<v Speaker 2>end of twenty twenty four to twenty three. And so

0:24:22.359 --> 0:24:27.919
<v Speaker 2>what we what we knew from then is that you

0:24:28.119 --> 0:24:31.760
<v Speaker 2>population and also we got the migration report, right, so

0:24:31.800 --> 0:24:36.400
<v Speaker 2>we start so we know how people are moving domestically

0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:41.439
<v Speaker 2>and internationally, right, So which which you know, which communities

0:24:41.440 --> 0:24:46.879
<v Speaker 2>are growing fast, which ones are shrinking, and which of

0:24:46.880 --> 0:24:53.600
<v Speaker 2>those are happening from uh international migration. Right. What we

0:24:53.760 --> 0:24:57.680
<v Speaker 2>haven't seen yet in this year, which I'm i hear

0:24:57.720 --> 0:25:02.200
<v Speaker 2>a lot anecdotally, is how much has the you know,

0:25:02.359 --> 0:25:06.760
<v Speaker 2>tightened immigration policies affected border towns and so forth right.

0:25:06.760 --> 0:25:08.800
<v Speaker 2>It is how much you know what's going on with

0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:11.880
<v Speaker 2>the population base, and is that population based less likely

0:25:11.960 --> 0:25:14.680
<v Speaker 2>to you know, go out and use restaurants and so

0:25:14.720 --> 0:25:19.720
<v Speaker 2>forth right. So I think that even before that we

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:25.200
<v Speaker 2>saw that, yes, you know, the restaurant growth, even after

0:25:25.400 --> 0:25:28.760
<v Speaker 2>taking into account closures and bankruptcies, is still growing a

0:25:28.800 --> 0:25:33.720
<v Speaker 2>lot faster than population. I think we're going to see,

0:25:33.920 --> 0:25:37.720
<v Speaker 2>you know, in retrospect that community that you're in makes

0:25:37.760 --> 0:25:41.880
<v Speaker 2>a big difference in terms of, you know, how saturated

0:25:41.920 --> 0:25:43.880
<v Speaker 2>you are and how hard you've got to work for that,

0:25:44.040 --> 0:25:45.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, that share of stomach.

0:25:46.400 --> 0:25:50.159
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's interesting. I know Wingstop had mentioned that that

0:25:51.840 --> 0:25:55.240
<v Speaker 1>spending from their Hispanic customers was kind of weak around

0:25:55.280 --> 0:25:58.440
<v Speaker 1>them around the tariff, you know, all the teriff excitement

0:25:58.480 --> 0:25:59.119
<v Speaker 1>back in April.

0:25:59.400 --> 0:26:01.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and I've I've heard that from you know, more

0:26:01.880 --> 0:26:05.240
<v Speaker 2>than a more than a couple of brands you know

0:26:05.600 --> 0:26:09.600
<v Speaker 2>that that have you know, higher Hispanic populations. And you know,

0:26:11.320 --> 0:26:14.480
<v Speaker 2>you know it shouldn't shouldn't be shouldn't be too surprising, right,

0:26:14.840 --> 0:26:17.679
<v Speaker 2>you know, you make, you make certain choices, and not

0:26:17.800 --> 0:26:20.320
<v Speaker 2>all choices are good for everyone for sure.

0:26:20.960 --> 0:26:24.520
<v Speaker 1>Uh So cp I was released yesterday. Did anything about

0:26:24.520 --> 0:26:25.600
<v Speaker 1>that report stand out to you?

0:26:26.000 --> 0:26:28.240
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Look, I think the restaurants are still you know,

0:26:28.280 --> 0:26:32.560
<v Speaker 2>as you know, you know headline CPI is is is

0:26:32.600 --> 0:26:39.119
<v Speaker 2>moderating closer to target, still above restaurants actually you know,

0:26:39.240 --> 0:26:42.720
<v Speaker 2>ticked up a little bit, you know, particularly uh, full

0:26:42.760 --> 0:26:46.800
<v Speaker 2>service restaurants, which you know, as you mentioned, you know,

0:26:48.160 --> 0:26:51.520
<v Speaker 2>limited service was you know, was increasing prices you know,

0:26:51.600 --> 0:26:54.359
<v Speaker 2>by a lot more for for quite a few years now,

0:26:54.400 --> 0:26:56.840
<v Speaker 2>for the past several months, you know, actually going into

0:26:56.960 --> 0:27:01.560
<v Speaker 2>end of last year, we've seen that full service price

0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:07.760
<v Speaker 2>increases are are are now ahead of you know cp

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:12.160
<v Speaker 2>I for for limited service. So it'll be interesting to see,

0:27:12.320 --> 0:27:15.199
<v Speaker 2>you know, how that happens. And I think. Look, it's

0:27:15.760 --> 0:27:19.160
<v Speaker 2>it's consumer driven really because you know, when we compare,

0:27:19.480 --> 0:27:23.040
<v Speaker 2>when we compare cp I going back you know, even

0:27:23.119 --> 0:27:29.639
<v Speaker 2>three years, uh two, check averages you know from you know,

0:27:29.720 --> 0:27:33.120
<v Speaker 2>credit card sampling data and so forth. You know, we're

0:27:33.160 --> 0:27:36.600
<v Speaker 2>seeing that, you know, check averages in the industry are

0:27:36.600 --> 0:27:39.600
<v Speaker 2>not growing at nearly the rate of of of cp I.

0:27:40.160 --> 0:27:42.560
<v Speaker 2>So what's that telling us, Right, that's telling us that

0:27:43.320 --> 0:27:49.040
<v Speaker 2>restaurants are increasing their prices. But h but consumers are

0:27:49.080 --> 0:27:52.560
<v Speaker 2>managing their spend, you know, to not go too far

0:27:52.680 --> 0:27:56.639
<v Speaker 2>outside of what they're you know, what they were, what

0:27:56.720 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 2>they planned, right. Uh So that that's that's that I

0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:04.760
<v Speaker 2>think is important because it means that restaurants that think

0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:07.320
<v Speaker 2>that they can just you know, do a one time

0:28:07.760 --> 0:28:10.440
<v Speaker 2>you know, three percent, three three and a half four

0:28:10.480 --> 0:28:16.200
<v Speaker 2>percent increase, they're probably only you know, after your customer

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:19.479
<v Speaker 2>you know, manages their checked, they're probably only getting you know,

0:28:19.960 --> 0:28:22.359
<v Speaker 2>maybe two percent of that, right. I mean, the real

0:28:22.480 --> 0:28:26.160
<v Speaker 2>ratios of just you know, across the board types of increases,

0:28:26.280 --> 0:28:29.920
<v Speaker 2>you know, are about fifty percent flow through, right, Whereas

0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:33.480
<v Speaker 2>if you instead said, you know what if we went

0:28:33.640 --> 0:28:36.320
<v Speaker 2>lower you know, in a more measured way, you know,

0:28:36.400 --> 0:28:38.760
<v Speaker 2>and hit the one and a half two percent. You know,

0:28:40.680 --> 0:28:43.200
<v Speaker 2>when you're doing it that way, you're staying more within

0:28:43.280 --> 0:28:45.479
<v Speaker 2>what the consumers willing to take. You can measure it,

0:28:45.520 --> 0:28:48.160
<v Speaker 2>you can maybe even do more, but you're more likely

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:51.720
<v Speaker 2>to get in the nineties, you know, than you know,

0:28:52.720 --> 0:28:55.440
<v Speaker 2>and that ends up being much healthier for for the brand. Right.

0:28:55.480 --> 0:28:59.200
<v Speaker 2>I think a lot of the larger companies understand that,

0:28:59.520 --> 0:29:02.240
<v Speaker 2>you know, and you know, they may a lot of

0:29:02.280 --> 0:29:05.040
<v Speaker 2>them even like may say, oh, we're not changing our prices,

0:29:05.040 --> 0:29:09.280
<v Speaker 2>but you know what they're franchise systems, So yes, they

0:29:09.280 --> 0:29:11.880
<v Speaker 2>are increasing the prices. But the better guidance they can

0:29:11.920 --> 0:29:16.400
<v Speaker 2>have in terms of you know, being moderate, right and

0:29:16.440 --> 0:29:18.360
<v Speaker 2>making sure that you're measuring what the consumer is willing

0:29:18.400 --> 0:29:21.120
<v Speaker 2>to spend along with it, that's how you make sure

0:29:21.160 --> 0:29:23.920
<v Speaker 2>that you're growing and growing in a healthy way.

0:29:24.920 --> 0:29:27.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we're seeing a lot of our companies are showing

0:29:27.680 --> 0:29:31.000
<v Speaker 1>a decline in their mix, and you know, part of

0:29:31.040 --> 0:29:33.520
<v Speaker 1>it is due to alcohol, but you know, part of

0:29:33.560 --> 0:29:38.320
<v Speaker 1>it is probably customers managing checks and to your point, yeah,

0:29:38.360 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 1>it's a part of its supply and demand. For some

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:42.040
<v Speaker 1>of these chains that are doing a better job, they're

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:44.720
<v Speaker 1>drawing more people in they're able to raise prices. Some

0:29:44.880 --> 0:29:47.760
<v Speaker 1>chains that are doing much better. I already mentioned Chili's

0:29:47.760 --> 0:29:51.760
<v Speaker 1>Cracker Barrel. They're also starting to lean into strategic pricing

0:29:51.840 --> 0:29:52.240
<v Speaker 1>right now.

0:29:52.480 --> 0:29:54.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean you have to write and I think

0:29:54.680 --> 0:29:58.920
<v Speaker 2>it's actually a lesson that restaurants need to you know,

0:29:59.160 --> 0:30:02.040
<v Speaker 2>look to other ends streets about, you know, because in

0:30:02.480 --> 0:30:05.680
<v Speaker 2>the past and during certain times, you know, especially during inflation.

0:30:05.800 --> 0:30:08.440
<v Speaker 2>Right when it's inflationary, it's like, oh, I'm going to

0:30:08.440 --> 0:30:10.560
<v Speaker 2>increase my prices by you know, three and a half

0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:12.840
<v Speaker 2>four percent in some cases you know, eight percent, and

0:30:12.840 --> 0:30:16.240
<v Speaker 2>it's like, oh yeah, you know, full flow through terrific, right,

0:30:16.240 --> 0:30:18.280
<v Speaker 2>look at our check average. It's like, okay, well that

0:30:18.280 --> 0:30:21.720
<v Speaker 2>that's that's not normal times in the world. Right. So

0:30:21.880 --> 0:30:24.239
<v Speaker 2>it's actually on the back end of those types of

0:30:24.440 --> 0:30:30.040
<v Speaker 2>inflation bubbles that it gets it becomes much harder. But costs,

0:30:30.080 --> 0:30:34.360
<v Speaker 2>haven't you know, come back down to earth, especially you

0:30:34.400 --> 0:30:38.720
<v Speaker 2>know in our industry where it's the cost of labor, right,

0:30:38.800 --> 0:30:42.760
<v Speaker 2>this is becoming even more scarce. How do you how

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:46.240
<v Speaker 2>do you make sure that you are threading that needle

0:30:46.440 --> 0:30:49.040
<v Speaker 2>right because it is you know, if you go too high,

0:30:49.200 --> 0:30:52.040
<v Speaker 2>you're going to get punished. By the consumer. But if

0:30:52.040 --> 0:30:55.920
<v Speaker 2>you go too low, we're a thin margin business, right,

0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:59.200
<v Speaker 2>You've got to you know, you are going to have

0:30:59.280 --> 0:31:02.400
<v Speaker 2>to pass on some thing to the consumer just to

0:31:02.440 --> 0:31:03.520
<v Speaker 2>make the economics work.

0:31:03.720 --> 0:31:07.920
<v Speaker 1>For sure. Week restaurants spending by low income consumers has

0:31:08.000 --> 0:31:11.640
<v Speaker 1>been publicized for a while now, at least eighteen months

0:31:11.720 --> 0:31:14.680
<v Speaker 1>or so. A few of the companies that cover said

0:31:14.720 --> 0:31:18.040
<v Speaker 1>the cohort was weak in March. Has their spending recovered

0:31:18.040 --> 0:31:20.880
<v Speaker 1>with industry seam source sales in the second quarter.

0:31:21.160 --> 0:31:25.400
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So what we're seeing is, you know, I guess

0:31:25.400 --> 0:31:28.280
<v Speaker 2>I would call it a flattening, right. So, you know,

0:31:28.640 --> 0:31:32.800
<v Speaker 2>particularly last year, we saw you know, pretty major fallout

0:31:33.000 --> 0:31:35.960
<v Speaker 2>of you know, of the of the lowest income consumer.

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:40.040
<v Speaker 2>But I think they got you know, beaten down, you know,

0:31:40.200 --> 0:31:44.000
<v Speaker 2>to sort of a minimum minimum level, or at least

0:31:44.000 --> 0:31:47.080
<v Speaker 2>compared to other other cohorts, right, we had the upper

0:31:47.120 --> 0:31:50.840
<v Speaker 2>and middle income customers that were still pretty strong. So

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:54.280
<v Speaker 2>but what we've seen really over the over the course

0:31:54.320 --> 0:31:58.000
<v Speaker 2>of this year is that, you know, while the low

0:31:58.040 --> 0:32:01.600
<v Speaker 2>income customers don't necessarily come back and drove, That's not

0:32:01.640 --> 0:32:04.360
<v Speaker 2>what I'm suggesting, but the mix of customer you know,

0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:08.400
<v Speaker 2>is has sort of stabilized at the lowest and the

0:32:08.480 --> 0:32:11.360
<v Speaker 2>highest income. But what we're really seeing is the middle

0:32:11.400 --> 0:32:14.320
<v Speaker 2>falling out, right, So you know, it's you know, sort

0:32:14.320 --> 0:32:18.240
<v Speaker 2>of this trickle across and you know, so I think

0:32:18.280 --> 0:32:21.880
<v Speaker 2>that that's you know, it may be contrary to what

0:32:21.920 --> 0:32:24.640
<v Speaker 2>we've been thinking about. You know, you know, strapped customers

0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:28.040
<v Speaker 2>still still an important consideration, but even in like you know,

0:32:28.360 --> 0:32:30.560
<v Speaker 2>fast casual, what I was surprised to see is that,

0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:33.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, the the mix of lower income customers and

0:32:33.960 --> 0:32:36.640
<v Speaker 2>fast casual is actually growing because the middle has fallen

0:32:36.680 --> 0:32:41.200
<v Speaker 2>out so much. That has implications, right, which means that, okay, well,

0:32:41.280 --> 0:32:43.480
<v Speaker 2>if the low income customers are now making up a

0:32:43.520 --> 0:32:47.400
<v Speaker 2>bigger mix of your of your customer base, then that

0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:51.240
<v Speaker 2>means that you're also likely to experience more uh, you know,

0:32:51.280 --> 0:32:53.400
<v Speaker 2>more more price sensitivity.

0:32:53.920 --> 0:32:58.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, for sure, it's concerning obviously if the middle income weakends.

0:32:58.240 --> 0:33:00.680
<v Speaker 1>You know, we've had a couple of our companies mentioned

0:33:00.880 --> 0:33:04.440
<v Speaker 1>a little deterioration there, but hasn't really been broad based

0:33:04.440 --> 0:33:08.520
<v Speaker 1>against across the national chains that we cover. You know,

0:33:08.640 --> 0:33:13.800
<v Speaker 1>hopefully the talk about tax cuts, which should help the

0:33:13.840 --> 0:33:18.720
<v Speaker 1>middle middle class, will support their spending in the second half.

0:33:18.720 --> 0:33:22.240
<v Speaker 2>We'll see yeah, I think you know the whole you know,

0:33:22.280 --> 0:33:25.200
<v Speaker 2>it's been a year that you know, the the word

0:33:25.240 --> 0:33:28.120
<v Speaker 2>of the year I think is is turning into uncertainty, right,

0:33:28.480 --> 0:33:31.280
<v Speaker 2>So you know, and and that's when you see the

0:33:31.720 --> 0:33:35.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, consumer survey based data and so forth. Right,

0:33:35.120 --> 0:33:37.920
<v Speaker 2>you know you're seeing look, and a lot depends on

0:33:37.960 --> 0:33:44.040
<v Speaker 2>what party you are, right, But but even there, right,

0:33:44.280 --> 0:33:48.560
<v Speaker 2>there's a there's a universal agreement that you know, things

0:33:48.560 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 2>are things are very uncertain, right, And you might say, oh,

0:33:51.240 --> 0:33:55.360
<v Speaker 2>well that's good, right, or maybe that's the big differentiator

0:33:55.400 --> 0:33:57.600
<v Speaker 2>by by party, Right, is it good or is it bad?

0:33:57.600 --> 0:33:59.719
<v Speaker 2>That is uncertain Well, it depends what the outcome is

0:34:00.440 --> 0:34:03.320
<v Speaker 2>either way. It means that you know, there are customers

0:34:03.320 --> 0:34:06.760
<v Speaker 2>and companies and so forth that are you know, don't

0:34:06.840 --> 0:34:09.640
<v Speaker 2>don't love the uncertainty, right, So so they're going to

0:34:09.760 --> 0:34:13.279
<v Speaker 2>delay some decisions, you know. So to your point on

0:34:13.320 --> 0:34:15.040
<v Speaker 2>this in the later half of the year, if there's

0:34:15.080 --> 0:34:16.719
<v Speaker 2>tax cuts and so on and so forth, you know,

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:20.680
<v Speaker 2>could that help We'll eat, yes, But it depends on

0:34:20.680 --> 0:34:24.720
<v Speaker 2>who believes that, you know, who believes that that's coming, right,

0:34:24.800 --> 0:34:28.000
<v Speaker 2>because it's that it's for a lot of people, it's

0:34:28.080 --> 0:34:30.480
<v Speaker 2>you know, how do I feel, you know, that dictates

0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:32.400
<v Speaker 2>how much I'm going to spend, right.

0:34:32.800 --> 0:34:36.279
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, for sure, fine dining same source sales that were

0:34:36.480 --> 0:34:39.560
<v Speaker 1>very weak in twenty twenty three and twenty four. What

0:34:39.600 --> 0:34:42.600
<v Speaker 1>are you seeing in that segment? And do you think

0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:45.680
<v Speaker 1>higher asset prices can boost results later this year?

0:34:46.040 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 2>So I think that's also very much a mixed bag, right.

0:34:50.040 --> 0:34:53.600
<v Speaker 2>So going across markets, you know, d m as, even

0:34:53.640 --> 0:34:56.560
<v Speaker 2>micro markets. You know, if you are if you're in

0:34:56.600 --> 0:34:59.319
<v Speaker 2>one of those areas where there are very few fine

0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:02.440
<v Speaker 2>dining options, then you know you're and you've got a good,

0:35:02.560 --> 0:35:04.760
<v Speaker 2>you know, good consumer base for it, then you're probably

0:35:04.760 --> 0:35:08.279
<v Speaker 2>doing very well. But then there's also you know, some

0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:11.400
<v Speaker 2>that are that are not doing so well right because

0:35:11.400 --> 0:35:13.239
<v Speaker 2>of you know, where where they are and how they

0:35:13.280 --> 0:35:18.400
<v Speaker 2>compare to say, you know, the more affordable full service options.

0:35:18.880 --> 0:35:22.720
<v Speaker 2>So you know, again I think like the we've rarely

0:35:22.760 --> 0:35:27.680
<v Speaker 2>seen things so call it trade area dependent, right, it's

0:35:27.880 --> 0:35:30.800
<v Speaker 2>you know that can really dictate you know, who's looking

0:35:30.840 --> 0:35:32.239
<v Speaker 2>good and who's and who's.

0:35:32.000 --> 0:35:35.799
<v Speaker 1>Not right now, okay, and CDR chains have increased their

0:35:35.840 --> 0:35:39.400
<v Speaker 1>marketing spend a good bit over the last six months

0:35:39.400 --> 0:35:42.680
<v Speaker 1>to a year, particularly on TV ads. Why hasn't the

0:35:42.680 --> 0:35:45.560
<v Speaker 1>industry made greater inroads with one to one marketing?

0:35:46.360 --> 0:35:50.120
<v Speaker 2>I think that there's a there's an in between level, right.

0:35:50.200 --> 0:35:53.960
<v Speaker 2>I think that what the industry you know, gets wrong

0:35:54.200 --> 0:35:58.080
<v Speaker 2>oftentimes in implementing you know, what's called one to one

0:35:58.160 --> 0:36:05.799
<v Speaker 2>marketing is how different say their psychographic customer study you know,

0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:11.439
<v Speaker 2>translates into well, how do I actually operationalize that through

0:36:11.440 --> 0:36:16.440
<v Speaker 2>a database campaign that can actually be geared toward individual customers.

0:36:17.120 --> 0:36:20.319
<v Speaker 2>And that's a huge leap, right, especially for marketing departments

0:36:20.360 --> 0:36:22.680
<v Speaker 2>that you know, oftentimes you know came from you know

0:36:22.800 --> 0:36:28.120
<v Speaker 2>consumer uh you know, uh consumer package goods background or

0:36:28.160 --> 0:36:31.279
<v Speaker 2>something where you know, these psychographic studies that are have

0:36:31.400 --> 0:36:35.960
<v Speaker 2>really been effective in you know, broad based advertising, but

0:36:36.040 --> 0:36:40.200
<v Speaker 2>you cannot convert you know, those psychographics into you know,

0:36:40.360 --> 0:36:46.000
<v Speaker 2>behavioral data, right that you collect within you know, within

0:36:46.760 --> 0:36:50.160
<v Speaker 2>those technologies that can do the one to one. The

0:36:50.239 --> 0:36:52.520
<v Speaker 2>other thing is that you know, most of the ones

0:36:52.560 --> 0:36:54.920
<v Speaker 2>that are being designed that are capable of one to

0:36:55.000 --> 0:36:59.279
<v Speaker 2>one marketing in restaurant industry, it's all about the It's

0:36:59.280 --> 0:37:02.680
<v Speaker 2>all about the CD right, the consumer or the customer

0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:09.319
<v Speaker 2>database our data platform. So and that means that in

0:37:09.440 --> 0:37:14.760
<v Speaker 2>order to communicate certain things to people at that level,

0:37:14.960 --> 0:37:18.520
<v Speaker 2>they already have to be in your database, right, an

0:37:18.520 --> 0:37:22.920
<v Speaker 2>identified customer who you can talk to, which is great, right,

0:37:22.960 --> 0:37:25.280
<v Speaker 2>it's an effective thing has been to wave through the industry.

0:37:25.440 --> 0:37:28.239
<v Speaker 2>But the reality of that is that you can't you

0:37:28.280 --> 0:37:32.120
<v Speaker 2>can't grow your customer reach, you know, through the database

0:37:32.200 --> 0:37:35.279
<v Speaker 2>of people who are already your customers. Right, So how

0:37:35.320 --> 0:37:39.759
<v Speaker 2>do you take that same concept and apply it to

0:37:40.120 --> 0:37:44.960
<v Speaker 2>people outside of your outside of your database, you know,

0:37:45.000 --> 0:37:48.600
<v Speaker 2>and say, okay, well, I know that the people who

0:37:49.080 --> 0:37:51.759
<v Speaker 2>like my brand, who are heavy consumers of this and

0:37:51.840 --> 0:37:54.200
<v Speaker 2>so on and so forth, they live here, right, and here's

0:37:54.239 --> 0:37:56.160
<v Speaker 2>how I can get to them, because it's close enough

0:37:56.160 --> 0:38:00.480
<v Speaker 2>to my stores to be able to do that. That

0:38:00.640 --> 0:38:04.600
<v Speaker 2>is not that is not a common, uh usage of

0:38:04.640 --> 0:38:07.040
<v Speaker 2>the technology, So they sort of revert back to the

0:38:07.360 --> 0:38:09.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, to the mass market. Even in you know,

0:38:09.760 --> 0:38:13.880
<v Speaker 2>even in d m A level you know, uh, digital spending,

0:38:14.680 --> 0:38:16.959
<v Speaker 2>usually it's you know, you've got to buy the whole

0:38:17.040 --> 0:38:18.680
<v Speaker 2>d m A right, if you want to get very

0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:23.719
<v Speaker 2>specific about your your your demo. But really the technology

0:38:23.760 --> 0:38:25.600
<v Speaker 2>exists so that you know, you can say, look, I

0:38:25.719 --> 0:38:28.400
<v Speaker 2>just want people in this neighborhood, you know, to be

0:38:28.440 --> 0:38:31.759
<v Speaker 2>able to see this kind of ad because I know

0:38:31.840 --> 0:38:33.719
<v Speaker 2>that you know, all of them are you know, within

0:38:33.760 --> 0:38:37.680
<v Speaker 2>a distance, right, and that becomes much less expensive, uh

0:38:37.840 --> 0:38:41.040
<v Speaker 2>to execute. But it's it's not commonly understood. I think

0:38:41.080 --> 0:38:43.440
<v Speaker 2>across you know, across the marketing spectrum, and.

0:38:44.000 --> 0:38:47.840
<v Speaker 1>What's your view on QSR discounting, you know, more or

0:38:47.920 --> 0:38:50.600
<v Speaker 1>less the same Over the next six to twelve months, I.

0:38:50.520 --> 0:38:52.840
<v Speaker 2>Think it's going to become more and I think that

0:38:52.920 --> 0:38:55.200
<v Speaker 2>there's there's plenty of discounting going on. I think that

0:38:55.280 --> 0:38:57.640
<v Speaker 2>a lot of them, you know, we're trying to keep it,

0:38:57.840 --> 0:39:01.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, to our database, you know, conversation, you know,

0:39:01.920 --> 0:39:04.440
<v Speaker 2>a little bit more low key, low profile, you know,

0:39:04.520 --> 0:39:09.680
<v Speaker 2>give people very specific discounts and that works within you know,

0:39:09.719 --> 0:39:13.759
<v Speaker 2>within your existing customer base. Right if you've identified them

0:39:13.800 --> 0:39:16.400
<v Speaker 2>as as as low income, it doesn't help you to

0:39:16.440 --> 0:39:20.040
<v Speaker 2>expand your reach, you know. And I think that you know,

0:39:20.960 --> 0:39:23.479
<v Speaker 2>one of the things and we're starting to see it, right,

0:39:23.600 --> 0:39:26.360
<v Speaker 2>is you know, what can I get for five bucks

0:39:26.400 --> 0:39:29.240
<v Speaker 2>or what can I get for ten bucks? Right? Because really,

0:39:30.040 --> 0:39:33.760
<v Speaker 2>if we look historically through the through the industry, people

0:39:33.800 --> 0:39:37.720
<v Speaker 2>think about the discount as being so important, but really,

0:39:37.760 --> 0:39:40.320
<v Speaker 2>if you look at the successful campaigns over the past

0:39:40.360 --> 0:39:44.040
<v Speaker 2>twenty five years, it's really been about, you know, price certainty, right,

0:39:44.160 --> 0:39:47.319
<v Speaker 2>how much am I going to spend when I go out? Right?

0:39:47.440 --> 0:39:49.799
<v Speaker 2>Is it three dollars? Is it five dollars? You know,

0:39:50.560 --> 0:39:52.640
<v Speaker 2>ten dollars even you know Ruth Chris had the Rus

0:39:52.719 --> 0:39:56.839
<v Speaker 2>Chris classic, Right, It's like, okay, you know eighty five dollars, right,

0:39:57.000 --> 0:39:59.239
<v Speaker 2>but you knew that you could go there and that's

0:39:59.280 --> 0:40:01.680
<v Speaker 2>what you're going to spend done a per person basis, right,

0:40:01.800 --> 0:40:04.160
<v Speaker 2>And I think that that helps people to make these

0:40:04.760 --> 0:40:09.000
<v Speaker 2>these decisions, right to say this is how much money

0:40:09.440 --> 0:40:11.719
<v Speaker 2>you know I'm going to spend today, right, or this

0:40:11.840 --> 0:40:13.840
<v Speaker 2>how much money it is in per per head in

0:40:13.880 --> 0:40:17.080
<v Speaker 2>my family. Right. So so I think that you know,

0:40:17.480 --> 0:40:19.160
<v Speaker 2>those I think we're going to see a lot more

0:40:19.200 --> 0:40:23.280
<v Speaker 2>of that, you know, hammering certain price points that consumers

0:40:23.360 --> 0:40:23.960
<v Speaker 2>see appealing.

0:40:24.400 --> 0:40:27.080
<v Speaker 1>It's like one of the first things you think about

0:40:27.760 --> 0:40:30.000
<v Speaker 1>is how much you want to spend for occasions like

0:40:30.000 --> 0:40:32.000
<v Speaker 1>a lunch. And you know, I remember you were one

0:40:32.040 --> 0:40:35.000
<v Speaker 1>of the first to pour cold water on dynamic pricing,

0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:36.680
<v Speaker 1>and that was a big part of it. Right. It's like,

0:40:36.719 --> 0:40:39.640
<v Speaker 1>if I don't know how much I'm going to spend

0:40:39.680 --> 0:40:43.200
<v Speaker 1>for my cheeseburger. You know, I kind of eliminates it

0:40:43.239 --> 0:40:45.520
<v Speaker 1>from my consideration set.

0:40:45.800 --> 0:40:48.000
<v Speaker 2>That's right. And look, I think you know, there are

0:40:48.160 --> 0:40:51.640
<v Speaker 2>cases for you know, dynamic pricing, and there are ways

0:40:51.640 --> 0:40:54.360
<v Speaker 2>that it works in times that it works. But but

0:40:54.480 --> 0:40:56.440
<v Speaker 2>you need to be very careful about it, right, because

0:40:56.480 --> 0:41:00.719
<v Speaker 2>what does it do you know psychologically into your relationship

0:41:00.719 --> 0:41:06.000
<v Speaker 2>with the customer? You know, a better use case to me, right,

0:41:06.120 --> 0:41:09.640
<v Speaker 2>rather than changing you know, your price of a cheeseburger

0:41:09.719 --> 0:41:12.360
<v Speaker 2>by you know, a dime twenty five cents, you know,

0:41:12.440 --> 0:41:15.600
<v Speaker 2>by the minute or whatever is, you know, how do

0:41:15.640 --> 0:41:19.720
<v Speaker 2>I dynamically choose the right bundle, right and try? And

0:41:19.800 --> 0:41:23.400
<v Speaker 2>you know, think of think about price for my customers,

0:41:23.440 --> 0:41:26.400
<v Speaker 2>not as how much they're spending on each subcomponent of

0:41:26.400 --> 0:41:28.840
<v Speaker 2>their order, but how do I know, how do I

0:41:28.840 --> 0:41:32.040
<v Speaker 2>get them to spend more with me in that visit?

0:41:33.280 --> 0:41:37.480
<v Speaker 2>Not because I've forced them to you know, swallow a

0:41:37.560 --> 0:41:41.959
<v Speaker 2>higher price on everything, but because I did a better

0:41:42.040 --> 0:41:45.680
<v Speaker 2>job of using technology to you know, to upsell the

0:41:45.680 --> 0:41:48.520
<v Speaker 2>things that they actually want to add to their order, right,

0:41:48.600 --> 0:41:51.320
<v Speaker 2>so that you know, instead of spending five bucks with me,

0:41:51.400 --> 0:41:54.759
<v Speaker 2>they're spending seven. And that's not because I just increased,

0:41:54.800 --> 0:41:57.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, the prices by by two bucks. Right, it's

0:41:57.800 --> 0:42:00.640
<v Speaker 2>because you know they got an add on, right, or

0:42:00.640 --> 0:42:03.640
<v Speaker 2>they got something that actually makes them enjoy the experience more.

0:42:03.880 --> 0:42:06.359
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, then for help selling is a much better use

0:42:06.400 --> 0:42:08.480
<v Speaker 1>case in my opinion. Look, Man, I could do this

0:42:08.560 --> 0:42:11.320
<v Speaker 1>with you all day. Thanks for doing this, man.

0:42:11.560 --> 0:42:13.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no, thanks for having me, Michael. It's always it's

0:42:13.680 --> 0:42:16.279
<v Speaker 2>always a it's always a pleasure, and you know I

0:42:16.360 --> 0:42:18.759
<v Speaker 2>love talking about this stuff anyway, So you know what,

0:42:18.840 --> 0:42:21.879
<v Speaker 2>we'll have to meet up over a beverage sometime soon

0:42:22.200 --> 0:42:22.640
<v Speaker 2>for sure.

0:42:22.719 --> 0:42:25.880
<v Speaker 1>Man. I want to also thank the audience for tuning in.

0:42:25.960 --> 0:42:29.120
<v Speaker 1>If you'd like to learn more about signal Flarer dot ai,

0:42:29.400 --> 0:42:32.080
<v Speaker 1>you can go to signal Flare dot ai. It doesn't

0:42:32.080 --> 0:42:35.160
<v Speaker 1>get any simpler than that. And if you liked our discussion,

0:42:35.200 --> 0:42:37.239
<v Speaker 1>please share it with your friends and colleagues. Check back

0:42:37.280 --> 0:42:39.480
<v Speaker 1>soon for another interview on chopping it Up.