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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an
Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today, bro show people live for
Speaker 3: the Pound. Ryan Grimm is here in the house and
Speaker 3: we have a packed show.
Speaker 1: All right, let's see what we've got here.
Speaker 3: Toughest part of the job, El Salvador, we're going to
Speaker 3: be having peace go on from uh he's previously joined us.
Speaker 3: He's a lawyer, he's got a lot of expertise on immigration.
Speaker 3: You did a very good job of explaining and breaking
Speaker 3: stuff down. There has been so many legal developments just
Speaker 3: over the last like forty eight hours or is the
Speaker 3: Supreme Court has gotten involved, basically blocked the entire Trump
Speaker 3: administration using the Alien Enemies Act. He's gonna explain what
Speaker 3: that means, what the justification is, and what the future
Speaker 3: looks like.
Speaker 1: We are going to talk about tariffs.
Speaker 3: There's been some major hang ups in the Trump administration's
Speaker 3: plan to negotiate bilateral trade agreements. The country of Japan
Speaker 3: has indicated it is not going to see two US demands.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of watch on Japan because it's the
Speaker 3: first major ally to actually negotiate with the Trump administration here,
Speaker 3: and there's some troubling signs as well as some peak
Speaker 3: behind the curtain of how we got our little ninety
Speaker 3: day pause. It's not exactly the best and the brightest.
Speaker 3: We're going to talk about Pete hagg Set and Pete
Speaker 3: hagg Set. It seems there's just insane insanity.
Speaker 1: Going on right now at the Pentagon.
Speaker 3: There's a full scale perch, a literal purge of top officials,
Speaker 3: many of whom are very against war with Iran, where
Speaker 3: loyal to Pete hagg Sat. They all appear to have
Speaker 3: been fired and at the very same time heg sat
Speaker 3: now embroiled in a scandal where he allegedly sent those
Speaker 3: same Yemen war plans to a group chat which included
Speaker 3: his wife and brother. We are going to talk about
Speaker 3: a little story here that Ryan and I worked on together.
Speaker 1: I believe Ryan.
Speaker 3: It's my first byline in six years, So it's good
Speaker 3: to be back. It's going to be back at drop
Speaker 3: sites and.
Speaker 4: For people who aren't in journalism.
Speaker 5: When two people write a story together, they called it
Speaker 5: co byline, we gotta go with cobro line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, cob bro like get a lot.
Speaker 4: I like it.
Speaker 3: It's good to be back. Ryan and I worked on
Speaker 3: the story together. An exclusive report that our subscribers will
Speaker 3: hear first. So if you want to get that, go ahead.
Speaker 3: Breakingpoints dot Com not going to give it away guess yet.
Speaker 1: Israel. We're going to talk about some updates there.
Speaker 3: Of course, just Israel admitting that they killed those medics.
Speaker 1: They call it a mistake. They fired the brigade.
Speaker 5: This is what accountability means. They removed one guy, that's
Speaker 5: his job.
Speaker 6: That's it.
Speaker 3: And beyond that, Ryan, you're going to get into how
Speaker 3: the deal, the TikTok of how they even got to
Speaker 3: an admission of guilt.
Speaker 1: A lot of it was because of you guys. A
Speaker 1: lot of it was because of.
Speaker 3: Journalists that were there on the ground, reporting from behind
Speaker 3: the scenes, and it was specifically not because the legacy
Speaker 3: media that forced this. We're going to as well give
Speaker 3: some updates on the Iran potential Iran deal. There is
Speaker 3: a full scale war and this relates very much the
Speaker 3: story that Ryan and I are doing a full scale
Speaker 3: war inside the Trump administration itself over the feasibility of
Speaker 3: these continued negotiations with Iran. Negotiations do continue and they're
Speaker 3: very positive signals. Of course, they could fall apart at
Speaker 3: any time, and the neo con war on the individuals
Speaker 3: who were involved, people like Steve Wikoff, Adam Boehler and
Speaker 3: others continues. The Israel lobby is throwing everything they possibly
Speaker 3: can to kill these We're going to give everybody an update.
Speaker 3: And then finally, finally, some interesting moments there on the
Speaker 3: Joe Rogan experience with Tim Dillon Rogan openly mockt Douglas
Speaker 3: Murray and Douglas Murray and Bill Maher teaming up to
Speaker 3: openly go after Joe Rogan. Interesting all former guests and friends,
Speaker 3: you know, apparently together.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot going on.
Speaker 4: There, makes it too easy.
Speaker 3: Yeah, have seen too Yeah, I mean it's too Goodsten Douglas,
Speaker 3: you did it to yourself, brother, You make yourself look
Speaker 3: like an idio.
Speaker 1: People are gonna take a notice, all right.
Speaker 3: So before we get to that, just thank you to
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Speaker 3: Emlin did a fantastic job on the Friday Show, which,
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Speaker 5: If you can do it now, you should do it
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Speaker 3: Also, we had some very sad news that broke overnight.
Speaker 3: Pope Francis officially died. He's eighty eight years old. Just
Speaker 3: met literally yesterday with the Vice President of the United States.
Speaker 1: He wasn't looking so good in that.
Speaker 3: But of course there will be kickoff the major conclave
Speaker 3: and all of the traditions surrounding the selection of the
Speaker 3: new pope.
Speaker 1: So it is an end of an era. Certainly condolences
Speaker 1: all the Catholics out there.
Speaker 5: And we'll talk about this later on the program. And
Speaker 5: I promise I will not make fun of Jade vans Ford.
Speaker 1: Okay, I mean you can.
Speaker 3: I mean it's objectively funny, but I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: it's not a funny moment, of course, for what is
Speaker 3: it a billion Catholics something like that. He lived a
Speaker 3: life around the world. Yeah, he had a very interesting life.
Speaker 3: So we'll talk a little bit about his legacy. We'll
Speaker 3: talk about it there at the end. But with that,
Speaker 3: let's go ahead and get to Pisco. He's waiting for us.
Speaker 3: Joining us now is Pisco. He is the host of
Speaker 3: Pisco's Hour for our purposes. He's actually an attorney and
Speaker 3: he's got a lot of specialization in immigration. She's been
Speaker 3: doing a decent job. He joined us before. He did
Speaker 3: a great job breaking down those legal developments. And we
Speaker 3: have even more legal developments here, specifically involving the Supreme Court. So, guys,
Speaker 3: let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.
Speaker 3: This came over the weekend where it was an extraordinary
Speaker 3: order from the United States Supreme Court, the Supreme Court
Speaker 3: blocking the Trump administration from deporting foreign nationals under the
Speaker 3: Alien Enemies Act. So peace, go go ahead and describe
Speaker 3: this order, how many justices were for, how many were against,
Speaker 3: the timing of which it came out, because there was
Speaker 3: a lot of legal analysis going over the entire breath
Speaker 3: of the decision.
Speaker 7: Go ahead, yeah, sure, So this is an extraordinary order.
Speaker 7: The ACLU went to the District Court, went to the
Speaker 7: Appellate Court, the Fifth Circuit, and then also to the
Speaker 7: Supreme Court, almost concurrently, you know, within hours of each other,
Speaker 7: because there was news that the Trump administration was moving
Speaker 7: quickly to deport tons of alleged alien enemies. If you
Speaker 7: remember the last time we spoke, there was that ruling
Speaker 7: and holding that even alleged alien enemies are entitled to
Speaker 7: do process and to have habeas petitions. While as I predicted,
Speaker 7: and as you know, we talked about, they were going
Speaker 7: to interpret what reasonable noticement and according to the ACLU,
Speaker 7: that meant twenty four hours and you got to sort
Speaker 7: of signal that you were going to file a habeas petition.
Speaker 6: And so in an.
Speaker 7: Extraordinary order, the Supreme Court at like one o'clock in
Speaker 7: the morning ordered quote the government to stop and pause
Speaker 7: any deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. It was right now,
Speaker 7: there's only two noted descents. We don't know for sure
Speaker 7: that all the other seven were in favor, but there
Speaker 7: were no other noted descents.
Speaker 6: So people are assuming now that there was a seven too, holding.
Speaker 7: To pause all Alien Enemies Act deportations in a certain
Speaker 7: part of Texas.
Speaker 5: Okay, so let's put up a two speaking of these descents.
Speaker 5: This is sam Alido. He writes in some literally in
Speaker 5: the middle of the night, the court issued unprecedented and
Speaker 5: legally questionable relief, without giving the lower courts a chance
Speaker 5: to rule, without hearing from the opposing party, within eight
Speaker 5: hours of receiving the application, with dubious factual support for
Speaker 5: its order, and without providing any explanation for its order.
Speaker 5: Refused to join the courts order because we had no
Speaker 5: good reason to think that under the circumstances, issuing an
Speaker 5: order at midnight was necessary or appropriate. Both the executive
Speaker 5: and the judiciary have an obligation to follow the law now.
Speaker 5: At the same time, you had a rather dramatic circuit
Speaker 5: court hearing with the judge there that the Trump administration
Speaker 5: kind of despises, where you had the attorneys for the
Speaker 5: migrants saying, we are hearing that people are being ordered
Speaker 5: to change clothes right now, like we can smell the
Speaker 5: fumes of the of the buses that are going to
Speaker 5: take these men to the airport. Please, sir, please your honor,
Speaker 5: like you have to act now. And he refused to
Speaker 5: step in, saying that he didn't have the jurisdiction at
Speaker 5: the time to inject himself into the controversy. But the
Speaker 5: Supreme Court did then just hours later. So can you
Speaker 5: talk about Alito's claim here that there actually is no
Speaker 5: urgency and that they shouldn't get done that. Where were
Speaker 5: the people in question at this moment?
Speaker 7: Yeah, by all accounts, the reporting is they were on
Speaker 7: buses ready to go to the airport and they were
Speaker 7: getting ready to take off. Now, I think you're referencing
Speaker 7: a hearing with Judge Boseburg, and in that case it's
Speaker 7: in a different jurisdiction. Boseburg is pretty much saying saying,
Speaker 7: you know, my hands are tied. The Supreme Court said,
Speaker 7: you know, the right venue for these habeas petitions has
Speaker 7: to be in the place where the confinement you know,
Speaker 7: was at the time the the Habey's pission was filed.
Speaker 7: And so I actually don't blame Boseburg at all. He
Speaker 7: was just you know, holding on to that rule earlier.
Speaker 5: His people as well, because it covers all class of
Speaker 5: people under the Alien Enemies ect.
Speaker 7: It covers only people in Texas. The Supreme Court's order itself.
Speaker 7: And but Boseburg is saying, listen, I don't have jurisdiction here.
Speaker 7: I have to listen to the Supreme Court. So that
Speaker 7: makes sense. As for Alito's concerns in ordinary circumstances, yeah,
Speaker 7: Alito would be right. You know, you're supposed to go
Speaker 7: through the ordinary process of appeal. You're supposed to, you know,
Speaker 7: make sure that you're exhausting your remedies in the district
Speaker 7: court and then at the Circuit Court of Appeals. Here's
Speaker 7: the problem, nobody believes the government when they say, hey,
Speaker 7: we're not going to deport these people. Oftentimes they're not
Speaker 7: even able to make those representations in court. Oftentimes, you know,
Speaker 7: they lie. You know, they're already lying about the decision.
Speaker 7: They say that it was nine to zero in their favor,
Speaker 7: the previous decision for kill Mar and Brego Garcia, and
Speaker 7: so you can tell the Supreme Court they're a little spooked.
Speaker 7: I think that those seven justices they don't trust the administration.
Speaker 7: And so when Alito says there's no factual basis to
Speaker 7: believe that these people are about to be deported, he's
Speaker 7: taking the government at their word.
Speaker 6: And what the government has shown is you shouldn't.
Speaker 3: So I think that's actually the most interesting part about
Speaker 3: the late night decision is it was clearly to the
Speaker 3: Supreme Court trying to assert its jurisdiction and its orders
Speaker 3: after watching the Trump administration and the way they have
Speaker 3: handled a lot of the kill Mar Abrego Garcia case,
Speaker 3: speaking of which there have been some extraordinary developments on
Speaker 3: that over the weekend as well. We had a couple
Speaker 3: of instances. Ryan and Emily did a good job on
Speaker 3: Friday of breaking down the meeting between Senator Chris van
Speaker 3: Holland and Abrego Garcia that took place in Elsialvador. But
Speaker 3: what actually came following that announcement was interesting as well,
Speaker 3: a continued claim from the Trump administration that Abrago Garcia
Speaker 3: was a confirmed member of MS thirteen. We have a
Speaker 3: little bit here from Abrago Garcia's lawyer being asked specifically
Speaker 3: about tattoos that allegedly show his MS thirteen membership on
Speaker 3: his hands, and then I want to get your reaction afterwards.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to his lawyer.
Speaker 8: One thing that we've heard from the legal team and
Speaker 8: against this allegation from the White House is about his history.
Speaker 8: I know that you've said he doesn't have a criminal history,
Speaker 8: that he had never been arrested for anything before people
Speaker 8: to the White House have pointed out to me. They
Speaker 8: say that doesn't mean that he wasn't a member of
Speaker 8: MS thirteen. There's not always criminal activity on someone's record
Speaker 8: if they are in a gang. And I want to
Speaker 8: show you something that the President posted tonight. It's a
Speaker 8: photo of what he says is your client's left hand.
Speaker 8: You can see his knuckles there, and the President is
Speaker 8: showing these tattoos that the White House alleges.
Speaker 3: Break down what's going on there in terms of the claim.
Speaker 3: I know that you've looked and actually read a lot
Speaker 3: of the docket. There's a lot of conservative influencers of
Speaker 3: like a confirmed member of MS thirteen break it all
Speaker 3: down for the audience here.
Speaker 7: Yeah, So, first of all, it's important to note that
Speaker 7: it doesn't matter even if you were an MS thirteen member.
Speaker 7: Even the worst criminals in the country deserve due process,
Speaker 7: and none of the Supreme Courts holding related to due
Speaker 7: process you rely on whether or not you're a member
Speaker 7: of MS R teen or not. But to actually address
Speaker 7: the claim, they're basing on a sort of police report
Speaker 7: that existed in twenty nineteen where a cop who was
Speaker 7: later sort of suspended for behavior that's frankly, you know,
Speaker 7: I don't know if I would say corrupt, but certainly
Speaker 7: bad behavior where he was having sex with a prostitute
Speaker 7: that he was also feeding you know, confidential information to
Speaker 7: and this cop on the basis of really just hearsay,
Speaker 7: someone said he's a member of MS thirteen and he's
Speaker 7: wearing like Chicago Bulls clothing. They alleged that he was
Speaker 7: a member of MS thirteen, and so that claim got
Speaker 7: sort of funneled into the immigration court.
Speaker 4: Say like do we even know that this person exists?
Speaker 6: Like, we don't know who this person's name is, We
Speaker 6: don't know who they are.
Speaker 7: Yeah, right, So the holdings of the immigration courts were
Speaker 7: with respect to a bond hearing. Okay, a bond hearing
Speaker 7: is a very different threshold than a finding a fact,
Speaker 7: And like, you know, if there's some issue, uh, you know,
Speaker 7: some legal issue that needs to be fettered out by
Speaker 7: the court, imagine it, right, Imagine if in a bond
Speaker 7: hearing you were accused of murder or something and the
Speaker 7: court found probable costs to hold you or just to
Speaker 7: hold you, right, just the amount of evidence it would
Speaker 7: take for you know, them to keep you in a
Speaker 7: cage until there is the process right. You don't have
Speaker 7: any right to cross examine this person. There was no
Speaker 7: availability of this officer to be cross examined. And so
Speaker 7: it is the height I think of, you know, a
Speaker 7: propagandist to suggest that these rulings related to the bond hearing,
Speaker 7: you know, are actual findings of fact that the member
Speaker 7: of MS R team, and all the evidence is to
Speaker 7: the contrary in my opinion. No criminal record here, no
Speaker 7: criminal record in El Salvador. You know those tattoos, it's
Speaker 7: it's like the Glenn Beck You guys ever see the
Speaker 7: Glenn Beck board where they're just like connecting dots and
Speaker 7: they're saying that the marijuana leaf represents M, the smiley
Speaker 7: face represents S, and so they're just trying to make connections.
Speaker 6: There.
Speaker 5: Don't how much you know about MS thirteen, but if
Speaker 5: people look up the tattoos that MS thirteen gang members wear,
Speaker 5: they will write MS thirteen, like across their face, it's
Speaker 5: blaring and underlining, it's circling it all across their back.
Speaker 4: MS thirteen.
Speaker 5: They are not a shy gang like, they're not the
Speaker 5: kind They're not like a fourteen year old who's, you know,
Speaker 5: trying to get like something past their their parents or
Speaker 5: their teacher, like haha, haa, I got a little marijuana leaf,
Speaker 5: but it actually means the M and MS thirteen Like
Speaker 5: they blare it out, you get kicked out of the gang.
Speaker 5: If you're like, wait, are you in MS thirteen or not?
Speaker 1: Like what is this me noted MS thirteen?
Speaker 7: Expert, right, exactly, no, no, no, But you read the
Speaker 7: like the tattoo analysis documents that they're giving to some
Speaker 7: of these ice officers, and they're you, you know, there's
Speaker 7: one tattoo. I remember it said ral asadamorte, which means
Speaker 7: you know, real Madrid until death. But people take that
Speaker 7: to be like a gang tattoo. It's just, you know,
Speaker 7: absurd the lengths they'll go to. And even with some
Speaker 7: of these other cases that are not seen as much coverage,
Speaker 7: I think simply because this kill mar Garcia case is
Speaker 7: so preposterous and so unlawful, but there are other cases
Speaker 7: where we know, like it's an autism tattoo, or it's
Speaker 7: a tattoo that says mom or dad, and so nobody
Speaker 7: trust these tattoo experts, and when they actually go to court,
Speaker 7: some of these habeas petitions have been brought in court.
Speaker 7: In at least one instance, the court has asked the government, hey,
Speaker 7: what's your evidence of this person as a gang member
Speaker 7: and an alien enemy? And they have literally put up nothing, zero,
Speaker 7: like not even just saying like the bad evidence that
Speaker 7: they have here or the doctored photo or whatever.
Speaker 6: They have put up no evidence.
Speaker 7: And so this is really disturbing, and we shouldn't trust
Speaker 7: the government's representations as to kill mar or as to
Speaker 7: any of these alleged alien enemies.
Speaker 4: So yeah, just real quickly, I've seen real tattoo. People say.
Speaker 5: The most logical explanation for it would be weed makes
Speaker 5: me happy. So Soccer would like to see him depoint it,
Speaker 5: deport it just for that weed makes me happy, you know,
Speaker 5: faith in the Lord till I die, like the Lord
Speaker 5: till I die?
Speaker 3: Or what if it's faith in weed, which is even worse.
Speaker 3: All right, let's get to make.
Speaker 4: It serious, all right, give them a second to make
Speaker 4: it serious.
Speaker 1: To make it serious, let's let's turn to Tom Homan.
Speaker 1: We're gonna be serious. Ryan's still on his high from
Speaker 1: four to twenty.
Speaker 6: This is going on, all right.
Speaker 1: Let's get to Tom Homan.
Speaker 3: He's the immigrations are and he's asked specifically about this
Speaker 3: tattoo identification process.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 9: But no one's removed just because of a tattoo.
Speaker 10: In other words, the alienity next to me is you
Speaker 10: can grab somebody and you can deport them without an
Speaker 10: extended hearing because you have labeled them a terrorist, because
Speaker 10: you've because you've said you've determined that somebody is a
Speaker 10: member of the gang, and therefore they don't have to
Speaker 10: go through the extended process of the of the opportunity
Speaker 10: to have a full hearing.
Speaker 6: That's what you're saying. And let's just be clear.
Speaker 9: I'm saying, we're founding the laws of this country and
Speaker 9: there's a different procedure of each one. We're doing things
Speaker 9: when in the frame of the law, we're doing things legally. Okay,
Speaker 9: I stand by that. Now Again, I'm not a constitutionist scholar.
Speaker 9: I'm not going to argue this in court. That's what
Speaker 9: the partner of justice does. But we're still I'm sitting
Speaker 9: here today, I think we've done the right thing for
Speaker 9: this nation, found the laws in the constitution in this country.
Speaker 3: So what do you get from that about not only
Speaker 3: that the defense of the alien Enemies Act, the tattoo
Speaker 3: justification and more.
Speaker 7: What do you think, Yeah, this guy's a depraved individual.
Speaker 7: He has no idea what the law is. And they're
Speaker 7: an open defiance of the Supreme Court. They're claiming that
Speaker 7: they only have to give twenty four hours notice to people,
Speaker 7: and that constitutes reasonable notice for some of these people
Speaker 7: who don't even speak English to file habeas petitions. They
Speaker 7: know they're flowed in the Supreme Court. That's one ruling, right,
Speaker 7: that's the ruling related to the Alien Exact, that you
Speaker 7: deserve a habea's petition.
Speaker 6: That's one rulein that they're violating.
Speaker 7: The second rule that they're violating is they're still not
Speaker 7: facilitating the release from custody in El Salvador of Kilmore
Speaker 7: and now apparently he's been moved around multiple times. So
Speaker 7: on the one hand, what I get from that is
Speaker 7: open defiance. And the people who's most in charge of
Speaker 7: the quote unquote border or enforcement doesn't even know the
Speaker 7: bare bones of their enforcement policy, isn't able to speak
Speaker 7: about it intelligently in a conversation, and in general, I
Speaker 7: think this entire endeavor has been characterized by unlawfulness and illegality.
Speaker 7: So his pretense that they've been doing everything to follow
Speaker 7: the law, I think is just absurd.
Speaker 3: On the moving around part, that was one where I
Speaker 3: was very confused as well. So Senator Chris van Holland,
Speaker 3: who met with Garcia, broke down some of the things
Speaker 3: he learned, not only about Garcia, but also about the
Speaker 3: arrangement between the United States and El Salvador.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to that, and I want your
Speaker 1: reaction as well.
Speaker 11: The Trump administration has promised to pay El Salvador fifteen
Speaker 11: million dollars to detain these prisoners, including the illegally abducted filmore.
Speaker 12: Say honestly something about the government of Elsalvador. They are
Speaker 12: making a huge mistake.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 12: They want to brand themselves as a country for technology. Yeah,
Speaker 12: you know, the presidents you know bitcoin is legal tender.
Speaker 12: But now what they're branding themselves as as the place
Speaker 12: for these huge prisons where people who are illegally deducted,
Speaker 12: excuse me, illegally abducted.
Speaker 4: Are warehoused.
Speaker 12: There may be states that decide, you know, they don't
Speaker 12: want any of their pension funds invested in companies that
Speaker 12: invest in a place like El salvare.
Speaker 3: So that was an interesting kind of breakdown. He talked
Speaker 3: about how there's a nine million dollar arrangement between the
Speaker 3: United States and El Salvador about this movement of prisons.
Speaker 3: What does that so, I mean, beyond the interest in
Speaker 3: that in his particular circumstances, what does that.
Speaker 1: Mean for this legal arrangement.
Speaker 3: That's what a lot of people are trying to get
Speaker 3: their heads around, both in the facilitation in terms of
Speaker 3: ever being able to bring them back even if you
Speaker 3: were to be deported again. Can you can you break
Speaker 3: some of that down for us?
Speaker 6: Yeah?
Speaker 7: I think legally what is relevant about that is for
Speaker 7: purposes of the concern regarding the Article to encroachment of
Speaker 7: the court. So you'll remember and recall there was this
Speaker 7: big discussion about, well, what can the Article two district
Speaker 7: court or our Article three district court order the administration
Speaker 7: to actually do you know, just facilitate me, I get
Speaker 7: to order the Trump administration to invade El Salvador. Surely
Speaker 7: it can't mean that, And so for purposes of that analysis,
Speaker 7: I think the fact that there is a payment relationship
Speaker 7: there makes us much more like a contracting situation. And
Speaker 7: I think everyone would agree, right imagine that Guantanamo Bay
Speaker 7: were being outsourced overset over Wa Tamamobai were being outsourced
Speaker 7: to a private corporation or even like a foreign country
Speaker 7: operate in Guantanamo Obay. That the nature of the payment
Speaker 7: structure there sort of informs the court who actually has
Speaker 7: the authority right if if he's in constructive custody of
Speaker 7: the United States, regardless of whether or not the prison
Speaker 7: guards themselves are Americans. That's a very different situation than
Speaker 7: Britney Griner when she's in prison by the Russian Federation.
Speaker 7: And so I think those are all things at the
Speaker 7: Court is going to take into consideration there, and I
Speaker 7: think it is legally relevant.
Speaker 1: Okay, Ran, you got anything else?
Speaker 11: All right?
Speaker 7: It?
Speaker 6: Well, I have a question for you, Seger.
Speaker 1: Sure, Tager, but yeah, oh.
Speaker 7: About Tager, I put my apologies. Isn't this condemnable? Didn't
Speaker 7: the Trump administration do the wrong thing here?
Speaker 1: Oh? Absolutely?
Speaker 3: I mean I think that the way this has been
Speaker 3: handled has been really a disaster. And I think, you
Speaker 3: know the interesting thing, you know, I just I've said
Speaker 3: this to Crystal also to Glenn as well, Like my
Speaker 3: initial reaction, you know, to the entire case was a
Speaker 3: baseline trust in like, not even trust per se, but
Speaker 3: just in basic competence that I didn't expect that you
Speaker 3: could actually be in a world where you would be
Speaker 3: not only about Abrego Garcia being mistakenly deported, but where
Speaker 3: you know, the United States criminal justice system validates gang
Speaker 3: members in the brear of prisons literally every day. So
Speaker 3: you would think that there is some baseline assumption around
Speaker 3: how to classify people as a gang member. Let's say
Speaker 3: you have eight to ten million, eight to ten million
Speaker 3: I legals enter the country under Biden this conservative estimate,
Speaker 3: and it's like, okay, it's reasonably assumption, you know, And
Speaker 3: it's a reasonable assumption I think to say that a
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty or so they say that they're
Speaker 3: the worst of the worst. I actually, you know, I've
Speaker 3: approached that from a position of like, yeah, you know,
Speaker 3: it sounds relatively reasonable. And then to see the way
Speaker 3: that these claims have all fallen apart in court and
Speaker 3: then the way that they've handled it, now, yeah, I
Speaker 3: just don't think that it falls both under any legal scrutiny.
Speaker 3: But I think also, you know, one of the things
Speaker 3: I didn't take seriously at the time was not only
Speaker 3: the due process, per position for any person in the
Speaker 3: United States. But it really does validate a lot of
Speaker 3: libertarian concerns and about defending the principle, even whenever it's
Speaker 3: something that you matter the most, because it's obvious here
Speaker 3: now that this is just the way that the administration
Speaker 3: conducts itself, both on an immigration level, but also really
Speaker 3: across the board whenever it comes to tariffs, whenever it
Speaker 3: comes to so many of the different things.
Speaker 1: Signal gate the sheer stupidity, the.
Speaker 3: Incompetence, and then also just asking people to defend something
Speaker 3: of which they themselves are admitting fault in a court
Speaker 3: and then breaking it so that you have to completely
Speaker 3: debase yourself. So yeah, I know, you know, you know,
Speaker 3: I'm sure you wanted your gotcha, but you got you know,
Speaker 3: you got right.
Speaker 6: Yes, I appreciate that.
Speaker 5: So I was coming around on this and a very
Speaker 5: very tiny part of me is mad at the Trump
Speaker 5: administration for what it did to its own supporters here
Speaker 5: because it took it took the faith that its supporters
Speaker 5: had that Trump was going to be diligent and honest
Speaker 5: about Now, I never he didn't betray me, because I
Speaker 5: never felt like he would do that. But they really
Speaker 5: believe that, Okay, he's going to go in and he's
Speaker 5: going to find three hundred of the worst, the worst,
Speaker 5: and he's going to get them, get them out of here,
Speaker 5: and instead he swept up. You know, at least it
Speaker 5: looks like more than one hundred people have no gang
Speaker 5: affiliation whatsoever. They're not even claiming they have gang affiliation.
Speaker 5: The country's focused on Abrello Garcia, but you know, we
Speaker 5: reported on what's his name, Sergio Reyes, who is a
Speaker 5: goalkeeper from Venezuela who had a real Madrid. Another real
Speaker 5: Madrid victim had a real Madrid tattoo and they locked
Speaker 5: him up for that.
Speaker 4: Another one had.
Speaker 5: Like a tattoo autism awareness for because he had an
Speaker 5: autistic brother. Then of course there's the makeup artist who
Speaker 5: clearly is not an MS thirteen member, but I maybe.
Speaker 4: Had a tattoo.
Speaker 5: I forget why he wound up there, just mistake after
Speaker 5: mistake and using people's kind of earnest support for the
Speaker 5: Trump administration to marshal the capital to do that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think runs exactly right.
Speaker 3: And politically, I mean, I still think immigration is the
Speaker 3: strongest ground that the Trump administration falls on, and I
Speaker 3: think a lot of people are deluding themselves and thinking
Speaker 3: that this is going to be like dramatically unpopular. Most
Speaker 3: people don't watch the news or segments like this, and
Speaker 3: they're broadly just like, oh, it was a gang member.
Speaker 3: You know, there's still a lot of trust in the
Speaker 3: Trump administration from the people who voted for Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: but at a serious level, I mean, I think all
Speaker 3: the concerns not only about due process, but about the
Speaker 3: basic competence that an American can have in their government
Speaker 3: in executing a policy which I do think was validated
Speaker 3: at a large level by the American electorate on terms
Speaker 3: of mass deportation. There was at least an assumption about
Speaker 3: some basic levels of competence. One of the major hits
Speaker 3: on the Biden administration was these of the most incompetent
Speaker 3: people who've ever run the government.
Speaker 1: Look at the state of the country.
Speaker 3: We're going to restore some sense of normalcy, and I
Speaker 3: just don't see that. You know, we've been some of
Speaker 3: the ninety days ninety days now right in terms of
Speaker 3: the Trump administration, from the DOGE cuts, which we're supposed
Speaker 3: to be two trillion now they're one trinal. It's like
Speaker 3: it really does become an all encompassing framework. And sure,
Speaker 3: you know, liberals can say I told you so, but
Speaker 3: you know, it's not like there's a lot of people
Speaker 3: who trust them per se. So sometimes you do need
Speaker 3: to see things. You need to see things for yourself.
Speaker 3: And I encourage people to think for themselves and to
Speaker 3: listen to people like you and to others and other debates, etc.
Speaker 3: So thank you so much for joining us, man, We
Speaker 3: appreciate it.
Speaker 6: Thank thanks so much for having them in.
Speaker 3: Let's get to the tariffs now, man, there has been
Speaker 3: such a whirlwind around this. Let's put this up there
Speaker 3: on the screen. Just actually very relevant something we've just
Speaker 3: discussed about process, about incompetence. This is basically a straight
Speaker 3: out of the first term so quote. Trump advisors took
Speaker 3: advantage of Navarro's absence to push for a tariff pause.
Speaker 3: Peter Navarrow quote had been a fixture on the President's
Speaker 3: side after Liberation Day. So the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik
Speaker 3: and Secretary Besson they wanted a ninety day pause on
Speaker 3: the global tariff plan. So what they did is they
Speaker 3: basically created a situation where somebody else of the White
Speaker 3: House complex invited Navarro to a meeting. Now he invited
Speaker 3: them to a meeting which was across the street. Now,
Speaker 3: while Navarro is conveniently across the street and cannot argue
Speaker 3: against Secretary Bestin and Secretary Lutnik, Secretary Bestdon and Lutnik
Speaker 3: rush into the Oval Office quote to see Trump and
Speaker 3: propose a pause on these tariffs, without Navarro there to
Speaker 3: argue her to push back. They know they had only
Speaker 3: a very tight window. It was not on Trump's public schedule.
Speaker 3: The two men convinced him of the strategy to announce
Speaker 3: the pause and stayed with Trump until he tapped out
Speaker 3: his truth social post, which surprised Navarro, who happened to
Speaker 3: be in a meeting, and then immediately Secretary Beston walks
Speaker 3: out of the West Wing in front of the cameras
Speaker 3: to declare the policy.
Speaker 11: Ryan.
Speaker 3: So that is the level of care and attention the
Speaker 3: steward of the global economy it currently has. Over all
Speaker 3: of our fates are our business here at breaking points,
Speaker 3: and so much more.
Speaker 5: The most important thing here is obviously the fate of
Speaker 5: the global economy and all the people that of.
Speaker 4: Course rely on it.
Speaker 5: But underneath it there's this bit, this bubbling question of
Speaker 5: insider trading.
Speaker 4: This, in an interesting way, exonerates, from my.
Speaker 5: Perspective, the charges of insider trading, because in order for
Speaker 5: you to insider trade, you have to have reliable information
Speaker 5: from the inside that you can then trade off. Nobody,
Speaker 5: including the varrow, including Trump.
Speaker 1: Well and the US Trade representative.
Speaker 5: Including Besant, none of them knew that they would successfully
Speaker 5: persuade Trump, like they had a plan. But you can't
Speaker 5: trade off just a plan. Insider trading is supposed to be,
Speaker 5: you know, for a fact X things. Well, so they
Speaker 5: go in, that's just the three of them, and then
Speaker 5: he taps it out on his phone.
Speaker 4: Right there, I'll give you a encounter three thousand points up.
Speaker 1: Here's my counter.
Speaker 4: Let's set a lot.
Speaker 3: So one of the reports from behind the scenes is
Speaker 3: the secretary best and all week long, all he's doing
Speaker 3: is taking calls from these Wall Street guns like you
Speaker 3: need to stop, you need to stop, you need to stop.
Speaker 3: Let's say that he tells them. He goes, listen, I'm
Speaker 3: walking into the oval stone. Yeah, and I'm gonna try
Speaker 3: and to change his mind. It's not a guarantee, right,
Speaker 3: it's still a bet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, But these guys bets all the time. Right, a
Speaker 1: tremendous amount upside.
Speaker 4: It's a stronger bet.
Speaker 1: It's a stronger bet.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 3: It's a little bit of information like let's say, if
Speaker 3: you can do more than you and I know here's
Speaker 3: the thing, you know, I do a lot of reading
Speaker 3: about ways to beat the casino plot twists, a dozen
Speaker 3: years of work. But the thing is is that if
Speaker 3: you can even rule out let's say, one fifth of
Speaker 3: the roulette board, that changes the odds for everything else. Right, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 3: you're not gonna win, but in a long, long run,
Speaker 3: you'll way, in the long run, you will win.
Speaker 6: So there you go.
Speaker 3: So that's a just even just a little bit of
Speaker 3: information about what might not happen or might might happen,
Speaker 3: is enough to make more of a structured bet which
Speaker 3: you might be able to take to the bet and
Speaker 3: obviously worked out for fair point.
Speaker 5: But like we said, the bigger point is we are
Speaker 5: all living and dying by by this, and it does
Speaker 5: not give you much confidence in the overasching strategy here,
Speaker 5: which we can get which we can get into more
Speaker 5: because the US is now dealing with the European Union,
Speaker 5: we can put this next element up on the screen. Here,
Speaker 5: we're seeing the US put into this extraordinarily difficult position
Speaker 5: where we are going into these negotiations in a badly
Speaker 5: weakened place, the dollars crashing, our stockbar is crashing, the
Speaker 5: bond market is crashing, and you're seeing travel drop in
Speaker 5: a way that is utterly extraordinary. So it's partly it's
Speaker 5: the trade war that's going on. But I think primarily
Speaker 5: I think so the trade war is creating a lot
Speaker 5: of anger, But I think people don't make a lot
Speaker 5: of their individual travel decisions based on their political thoughts
Speaker 5: about the.
Speaker 4: Leadership of a country.
Speaker 5: People are nervous that they're going to wind up in
Speaker 5: detention centers for some violation in their visa. I'm curious
Speaker 5: how this lands on the right. On the left were like, a,
Speaker 5: we we love foreign travels. It's good for the economy,
Speaker 5: and we we don't do much else, Like we are
Speaker 5: a service economy and so travel.
Speaker 3: I'm not going to downplay it. I'm not going to
Speaker 3: overstate it either. It's nine percent of US GDP.
Speaker 1: That's a lot. There are rough.
Speaker 4: Total yah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if we look which is mass No, I'm
Speaker 3: not so again, I'm not going to downplay it.
Speaker 1: It's also not in video. Okay, it's not the S
Speaker 1: and P five hundred.
Speaker 3: Now, if that's easy for me to say, and I'm
Speaker 3: not talking to what I'm trying to think.
Speaker 1: Orlando.
Speaker 3: If you own a hotel in Orlando, God bless you. Okay,
Speaker 3: I feel bad for you. You know you just got
Speaker 3: a massive hit if you own anything in upstate New
Speaker 3: York or in Seattle, where a bunch of Canadians are
Speaker 3: always traveling to. Apparently Canadians love Vegas. Vegas has taken
Speaker 3: an absolute beating right now.
Speaker 1: I have more ambivalent about that one.
Speaker 3: But in terms of letting them take a hit, my
Speaker 3: point is that there are a lot of people out
Speaker 3: there rely on this rink.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play that at all.
Speaker 3: At the same time, we are still talking about seventy
Speaker 3: percent drop in travel, and you know that's not bad that.
Speaker 4: The bad numbers is just coming in zero.
Speaker 5: That's that's just what we've been able to measure so far.
Speaker 4: Like the direction of that arrow. It's like the Hamas Kara.
Speaker 3: Look, I feel complicated about it in certain ways because
Speaker 3: you know, this is the same GDP argument, right that
Speaker 3: people make about foreign real estate. It's like, listen, you
Speaker 3: have to, Oh, we're the world's capital destination. I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 3: but that's bad for a lot of people who are here.
Speaker 3: One of the things I think that went most wrong
Speaker 3: with America and it's global cities is that our cities,
Speaker 3: when I say global, they really are global, as in,
Speaker 3: they are the global playground for the world's rich in
Speaker 3: the same way that Monaco or something is. Los Angeles
Speaker 3: is not for America. Okay, it's for the richest people
Speaker 3: on earth to all gather. Same thing with New York
Speaker 3: City Manhattan real estate. It's a joke. Like if you're
Speaker 3: a rich Chinese or rich Russian or rich whatever you know,
Speaker 3: from some tiny African country, you're the one billionaire from there.
Speaker 3: You're hanging out in Manhattan. Everybody who lives or in
Speaker 3: any cities, they know that not only money laundering go
Speaker 3: to Miami. What is it twenty six percent or whatever.
Speaker 3: The real estate there is. But I'm talking fun occupied
Speaker 3: about real estate. But what I'm saying is that but
Speaker 3: there is a downside to being yes. But what I'm
Speaker 3: saying is that being the global destination for the world's elite. Yes,
Speaker 3: it's good for GDP purposes, but you lose a lot
Speaker 3: whenever that happens as well, because you basically become this
Speaker 3: playground where we're like serving these like super rich I
Speaker 3: don't know, Guinea Bisawans like in Miami, and you're like, well,
Speaker 3: what's going on here?
Speaker 1: Right right?
Speaker 3: I'm just I want to give the caveat for why
Speaker 3: I don't think that it's as chopped up necessarily as
Speaker 3: its usually.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I agree.
Speaker 5: I just wish that the US had the kind of
Speaker 5: political economy and the capacity to be able to say, Okay,
Speaker 5: we're going to respond to this this Guinea Bissell oligarchs
Speaker 5: to wants to park his you know, twenty five million
Speaker 5: dollars that.
Speaker 6: He stole here.
Speaker 5: Well, you know it's going to cost you twenty percent
Speaker 5: and we're twenty and we're talking about twenty fifty, way
Speaker 5: more than let's negotiate for seventy five year period and
Speaker 5: with that we're gonna we're gonna fund our school system. Instead,
Speaker 5: we don't do any of that. We just completely sell
Speaker 5: for nothing to the oligarchs. And if if that is
Speaker 5: the system that we're going to have, then people are
Speaker 5: going to burn it to the ground, and rightfully so.
Speaker 5: But then you're not then without replacing it with anything else.
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, not a lot of disagreement, just giving a
Speaker 3: little bit of a counter perspective. Per se, I, you
Speaker 3: don't really want an economy, right that relies entirely on
Speaker 3: foreigners coming over here and spending a bunch of money. Right,
Speaker 3: all those ship they don't need, and then we don't
Speaker 3: need all.
Speaker 5: Those unoccupied rental properties that are or econominis or whatever
Speaker 5: that are just money launtering and people stashing money. That
Speaker 5: drives up the price of rent for everybody else there.
Speaker 1: You go, So maybe it'll be cheaper in plattsburgher and May.
Speaker 5: Everything is going to get cheaper in a lot of ways,
Speaker 5: except for the problem that you're four to one. K
Speaker 5: is going to crash. The tariffs are going to go
Speaker 5: the currency's currency is weaker. But the good thing about
Speaker 5: a deeper session is that, yes, rents are going to
Speaker 5: go now true.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember talking about that about gas prices.
Speaker 3: I was like, well, you know, gass could go down,
Speaker 3: but it will be because of demand nobody.
Speaker 4: That's actually really bad because nobody can afford it. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: Now in terms of the trade, so one relief the
Speaker 1: market is looking.
Speaker 3: For is some trade deals They're like, give us trade deals,
Speaker 3: give us trade deals, give us trade deals.
Speaker 1: Let's see some.
Speaker 4: Progress, because they think that'll signal because that means.
Speaker 1: To signal the end of the trade war.
Speaker 3: It means a nine day pause will not actually going
Speaker 3: to effect after ninety days. It'll mean that the China
Speaker 3: trade war is actually going well, that there's negotiations and
Speaker 3: all of that happening. So everybody has been looking towards Japan.
Speaker 3: And because Japan top you know three US ally G
Speaker 3: seven economy, one of the world's developed slapped with a
Speaker 3: twenty five percent tariff, Japan negotiated a trade agreement with
Speaker 3: Trump in twenty nineteen. Trump notoriously respects them. He loves
Speaker 3: Shinzo AaB thinks that he looked out for his country.
Speaker 3: I love Japan as well, you know, as any watcher knows.
Speaker 3: But what's interesting is that the Japanese this time around
Speaker 3: are signaling much less optimism around any sort of trade negotiation.
Speaker 3: There's been a massive decline in trust on the Japanese
Speaker 3: side for how these are going to go. And already
Speaker 3: just this morning I was looking at the futures. Let's see,
Speaker 3: they are down about one percent on the s and P.
Speaker 3: Five hundred largely as a result of this negotiation. So
Speaker 3: what we have here is a very interesting video flagged
Speaker 3: by our friend Arnau. This is the former Assistant Secretary
Speaker 3: of Defense, Chas Freeman, who actually seems to have gotten
Speaker 3: some inside information from the Japanese trade delegation.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
Speaker 13: The White House claims that there are direct talks going
Speaker 13: on somehow with the Chinese. I don't believe it. I
Speaker 13: think what is happening is what I described earlier. The
Speaker 13: Chinese are maintaining contact with US, routine contact. There is
Speaker 13: no negotiation going on. The Japanese have just been in
Speaker 13: Washington and their experience apparently was they went to talk
Speaker 13: to the American leadership on this matter, and the American
Speaker 13: leadership said what are you offering? And the Japanese said, well,
Speaker 13: what is it that you want? And the Americans could
Speaker 13: not explain what they wanted. This is a Kakamamy approach
Speaker 13: to negotiation. And I think the Chinese, having observed the
Speaker 13: United States break virtually every agreement it has agreed to
Speaker 13: in recent years, including the replacement for NAFTA with proposed
Speaker 13: tariffs and on Canada and Mexico. You know, that was
Speaker 13: negotiated by mister Trump in his first term, and yet
Speaker 13: he felt free to abandon it and repudiate it. What's
Speaker 13: the incentive to negotiate with the United States when the
Speaker 13: United States has no stated objectives that make sense and
Speaker 13: no record of compliance with its own agreements. So I
Speaker 13: don't think there is. I think the Chinese have decided
Speaker 13: they will wait us out and see how Americans like
Speaker 13: Walmart and Amazon denuative products.
Speaker 3: That was a really interesting perspective, obviously, but you know
Speaker 3: it pairs with some of the reporting that's coming out now, Ryan,
Speaker 3: this is extraordinary to come from a Japanese prime minister.
Speaker 3: Can we go ahead and put B five please up
Speaker 3: on the screen? So the Japanese Prime minister actually just
Speaker 3: spoke before Parliament Monday his time, so several hours ago
Speaker 3: and said quote, if Japan concedes everything, we won't be
Speaker 3: able to secure our national interests, saying Japan will not
Speaker 3: keep conceding to the United States in tariff talks. And
Speaker 3: clearly they are just deeply confused. They don't know what
Speaker 3: we want. My personal favorite is the demand from the
Speaker 3: Trump administration of why don't you buy more American rice.
Speaker 3: Why we're trying to tell the Japanese to buy our rice. Whoa,
Speaker 3: that's like telling the Chinese to buy tea from like North.
Speaker 1: They're like, whoa, what hold on a second here, Yeah,
Speaker 1: we got it. We solved that problem about two thousand
Speaker 1: years ago.
Speaker 5: And the other one he talked about was, you know,
Speaker 5: Trump is very fixated on the lack of American cars
Speaker 5: on the roads. Yes, in Japan, and as he talked about,
Speaker 5: and you can ye you were, you're there recently and
Speaker 5: tell us about your on the ground reporting. The parame
Speaker 5: Minister is like, look, man, the car the cars have
Speaker 5: the steering wheel on the wrong side, like we drive
Speaker 5: on the left side over here. So go ahead, try
Speaker 5: to sell your your cars. But you know, I don't
Speaker 5: think a lot of people are going to buy them
Speaker 5: because they're not.
Speaker 3: They do manufacture them with a different steering they have
Speaker 3: to England, but they don't have as big of a
Speaker 3: production run on those cars. But I mean, look, this
Speaker 3: is a secondary thing because.
Speaker 1: They're bad cars like that. It's like, let's just all admit.
Speaker 5: It, and we're lobbing them to like reduce their safety
Speaker 5: standards so that our cars can compete.
Speaker 4: It's like, how about we make better car?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 5: And also consumer consumer choice matters.
Speaker 1: Yes.
Speaker 5: By driving the entire world economy into a session in
Speaker 5: a tantrum style like Trump is doing to try to
Speaker 5: pressure people to buy our products is going to backfire.
Speaker 5: Even if you, let's say Japan is like, fine, we
Speaker 5: will even subsidize your Fords to come into Japan.
Speaker 1: Oh they shouldn't.
Speaker 5: Japanese people still have to make the decisions to buy
Speaker 5: a Ford. Americans don't even want to be seen in
Speaker 5: a Tesla right now. You think a Japanese consumer is
Speaker 5: gonna want to be seen in a Chevy?
Speaker 1: Dude? First of all, what is it?
Speaker 3: I think ten percent of Tokyo residents even own a car,
Speaker 3: right over ninety percent?
Speaker 4: We're going to park that thing.
Speaker 3: So second, then secondary like, they're obviously a better run.
Speaker 3: They're literally designed for them. People buy Toyotas in America. Okay,
Speaker 3: So why would you win in Japan? Want to buy
Speaker 3: a Ford or at Ford F one fifty, or let's
Speaker 3: say even a smaller truck run from any of the
Speaker 3: US manufacturers. You would be an idiot to buy that
Speaker 3: over a Toyota high loucks. You literally would be an idiot,
Speaker 3: a complete moron. And that's if you're an American. So
Speaker 3: now compare it to your in Japan get subsidized rate
Speaker 3: and his demandant domestically produced and oh it's for your
Speaker 3: own market.
Speaker 1: By the way, I just looked it up. Japan produces
Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of their own rice domestically. What are
Speaker 1: we doing here? They only spend seven hundred million.
Speaker 3: Dollars on rice. Fifty percent of that is already from
Speaker 3: the United States.
Speaker 1: Why who cares? They're basically self sufficient on rice.
Speaker 4: They're an art it's been a solved problem. Yeah, they're
Speaker 4: also they're also.
Speaker 5: An island, like if you're not. And also the current
Speaker 5: Prime minister's base is these farmers, so he's not going
Speaker 5: to sell his farmers out.
Speaker 6: But if you're.
Speaker 5: Telling an island country they need to like reduce the
Speaker 5: amount of food that they produce for themselves, what self
Speaker 5: respecting island nation would do that?
Speaker 11: Right?
Speaker 4: Yeah, well they didn't make it.
Speaker 1: I could tell I can talk about the amount of time.
Speaker 3: It's just one of the dumbest things about the demand
Speaker 3: for the Japanese. Like listening, we want to talk about
Speaker 3: reciprocal tariffs, Fine, we want to talk about trade and
Speaker 3: balanced deficit.
Speaker 1: Fine.
Speaker 3: Actually, by the way, the Japanese are the best ally
Speaker 3: to work with on this. Toyota manufactures half those cars
Speaker 3: here in the United States.
Speaker 1: Of America, so many of them are made.
Speaker 3: They have a seated too many of these demands, and
Speaker 3: they still get slapped with a twenty five percent tariff. Now,
Speaker 3: if we want more tax credits and or threats of teriffs,
Speaker 3: I have no problem with that. If we go over
Speaker 3: there and we say, hey, listen, you know x percentage
Speaker 3: parts are still being manufactured in Japan. You guys are
Speaker 3: keeping a lot of the gold for yourself, like in
Speaker 3: terms of the high value chain, which we don't blame you,
Speaker 3: but we want to bring some of that over to
Speaker 3: make it more self sufficient. Absolutely nothing wrong with that,
Speaker 3: and some carrot and stick approach with the tax credit.
Speaker 3: But from the Japanese, they both are feeling threatened, which
Speaker 3: is at the worst time. Right we're in an alleged
Speaker 3: trade war with China, So what would we want. We
Speaker 3: want all the Asia Pacific to stand with us. Well,
Speaker 3: the South Koreans and the Japanese are like, I'm I'm
Speaker 3: not so sure about this, right, They release a joint statement.
Speaker 3: The Japanese Prime minister openly trying to declare independence from
Speaker 3: the United States here on a trade war in his parliament.
Speaker 1: That's the worst possible.
Speaker 3: Outcome again for G seven nation, one of our closest
Speaker 3: allies manufacturing powerhouse, and one that we are deeply reliant
Speaker 3: on for a core segment of our autos.
Speaker 4: And real quickly, just to back back up Chas Freeman. Uh.
Speaker 5: The EU's Trade chief Mario Stefkovich met with Commerce Secretary
Speaker 5: Howard Latnik, Bloomberg and others report on this. Also met
Speaker 5: with you know, I say, Trade Representative jameson Greer and
Speaker 5: the reporting is this, it's just an incredible line.
Speaker 11: Uh.
Speaker 5: Stef Kovich left the meeting with little clarity on the
Speaker 5: US stance and struggling to determine the American side's aims.
Speaker 5: So they did the same thing as the Japanese. All Right,
Speaker 5: Americans like cool, what what are you going to give us?
Speaker 5: And then they're like, well what do the Europeans are
Speaker 5: like Okay, They're like, uh, because what Trump Trump wants
Speaker 5: to you know, US manufacturing capacity to increase what is
Speaker 5: what is?
Speaker 11: Uh?
Speaker 5: What did Japan and European Union have anything to do
Speaker 5: with it, Like it's like, all right, go ahead, like
Speaker 5: increase your manufacturing capacity, go for it.
Speaker 4: We're not gonna We're not gonna stop you do it.
Speaker 3: The entire thing is preposterous, not only in its demands,
Speaker 3: in its execution, and the that other countries have no
Speaker 3: idea what to do. And as I say, you can
Speaker 3: support tariffs and all this stuff in principle, and also
Speaker 3: look at the way that this is being implemented and
Speaker 3: say this is a total disaster. I am for decoupling
Speaker 3: with China that we would all recognize is going to
Speaker 3: have a lot of pain. So how do you offset
Speaker 3: pain with government subsidy, tax credits, a plan confidence, that's
Speaker 3: what the Chinese are doing, and allies and allied And
Speaker 3: then this is exactly so what does Jijingping do whenever
Speaker 3: he faces a trade war? He pumps billions of dollars
Speaker 3: in the economy, He lowers the interest rate. He makes
Speaker 3: sure that Amazon and e commerce sites are supporting their
Speaker 3: Chinese manufacturing base. To make sure that nobody in the
Speaker 3: supply chain gets wiped out, from the small all the
Speaker 3: way to the big manufacturers. You continue to supply and
Speaker 3: make sure that you have an autonomous electric vehicle industry
Speaker 3: that stands completely alone from the United States and the
Speaker 3: Western markets. And then you go across the Asia Pacific
Speaker 3: and you cultivate allies like Vietnam. That's everything he has done.
Speaker 3: Look then at the United States. We have small e
Speaker 3: commerce company. You know Ryan Peterson, my friend who works
Speaker 3: at Flexport. We had him here on the show. People
Speaker 3: will remember he predicts in ninety days mass bankruptcy at
Speaker 3: a small AMA commerce level. They're dead dead at one
Speaker 3: hundred and forty five percent. It's they're never coming back
Speaker 3: from this. In fact, he even flagged that they're already
Speaker 3: two companies who he knows they just gave up. They
Speaker 3: sold to China because they were reliant on the factories
Speaker 3: there to produce their goods. They said, listen, guys, we
Speaker 3: can't do business anymore. Your government is propping you up.
Speaker 3: We'll just sell you our business, our leads and everything.
Speaker 3: You can take over after it. They're happy they've got
Speaker 3: the cash and the balance sheet. Our people have nothing.
Speaker 3: So that's the disastrous part of this.
Speaker 1: The big guys, Walmart.
Speaker 3: They'll be fine, okayh ish, Sure, they'll take a twenty
Speaker 3: percent haircut on their stock. All of us will go
Speaker 3: work for Walmart as a greeter or whatever.
Speaker 1: They will survive.
Speaker 3: I think that's the one thing we could say with assurance.
Speaker 3: But many of the smaller products that go into a Walmart,
Speaker 3: you know, many of the people who are e commerce,
Speaker 3: you know folks or whatever, people will build big businesses.
Speaker 3: They have no runway now, no product. I talked previously
Speaker 3: as a new expected parent watching these stroller prices, it
Speaker 3: hurts man, because you know what, Okay, yeah, I bought
Speaker 3: mine before all these terriff things. But if you go
Speaker 3: on Facebook, Marketplace, the secondhand market and all that, the
Speaker 3: price there is already going to skyrocket. And people, you know,
Speaker 3: people feel a tremendous amount of anxiety about buying the
Speaker 3: proper car, SI the proper stroll. Of course, who doesn't
Speaker 3: want to protect their child and now they're getting charge
Speaker 3: for the privilege And that just is unconscionable to me.
Speaker 5: And the other thing that Chijiping is doing is targeted
Speaker 5: supports for people who are getting hit by the policy changes.
Speaker 5: So if you are a small business or a medium
Speaker 5: sized business that was reliant on exports to the United States,
Speaker 5: he is helping you find like he's doing all the
Speaker 5: things you said, helping you find in the mestic audience.
Speaker 5: His diplomats are working to find you consumers in Europe
Speaker 5: or Africa or Japan or whatever else. And in the meantime,
Speaker 5: he's offering financial support to you so you survive this
Speaker 5: difficult time.
Speaker 4: The United States is not doing that.
Speaker 5: All of these companies that are facing the short term pain,
Speaker 5: as Trump supporters call it, are not getting any support.
Speaker 5: And so when the long term gain is that's supposed
Speaker 5: to come rises, those people won't be around to reap that.
Speaker 5: It'll be the Chinese companies and others who at the
Speaker 5: Chinese companies and the oligarchs who are able to come in,
Speaker 5: you know, and buy, buy for peanuts and buy for
Speaker 5: scraps what's left of those companies, and then if there
Speaker 5: is any long term gain, it'll go to the It'll
Speaker 5: go to those, right.
Speaker 3: It's just one of the dumbest possible things that we
Speaker 3: have seen this all play out. If they don't back
Speaker 3: down soon, the damage is going to be immense. The
Speaker 3: price increases are already here. You can see it as
Speaker 3: the inventory starts to lead. And the next time you
Speaker 3: want to go buy consumer electronics, iPhone and all that stuff.
Speaker 3: Remember Trump did give a pause, but he said that
Speaker 3: there is a separate two thirty two sections two thirty
Speaker 3: two style tariff coming on tariffs specifically for consumer electronic goods.
Speaker 3: And Vidia just got slapped with that export control. And
Speaker 3: by the way, you know, even on this front, just
Speaker 3: last Tangent and the CEO of Nvidia, the moment that
Speaker 3: we announced our tarra or export license on his chips
Speaker 3: to China.
Speaker 1: Guess where he was China.
Speaker 3: He flew to China to assure them that we will
Speaker 3: always do business in China. He said, quote, we have
Speaker 3: done business in China for thirty years and we have
Speaker 3: no plans to stop. Okay, that's that's a problem because
Speaker 3: we can see here he has no confidence that. First
Speaker 3: of all, he doesn't know whether these tariffs are gonna
Speaker 3: last or not. He has no idea. But second he
Speaker 3: can see where his butter is. You know, where what
Speaker 3: is his bread is buttered? Yes, fifty percent or some
Speaker 3: revenue is over there, and he's not getting any help
Speaker 3: from the United States of America. I can guarantee you
Speaker 3: they probably threw everything in the book.
Speaker 1: At Jensen Wong.
Speaker 3: And look, I mean, I think that's deeply unpatriotic and
Speaker 3: all that.
Speaker 1: But I'm a realist. It's a capitalist every what are
Speaker 1: you going to do our like?
Speaker 5: Our companies are called multinational corporations for a reason. Yeah,
Speaker 5: they are not American corporations, and we should stop believing
Speaker 5: that they are.
Speaker 3: Right, Let's turn down to Pete Hegseth, Man, there is
Speaker 3: a full scale meltdown happening at the Pentagon. It is
Speaker 3: just unbelievable. Let's go and put see one up there
Speaker 3: on the screen. This is just the latest quote Hegseth
Speaker 3: to have shared attack details in his second second signal chat.
Speaker 3: The Defense Secretary sent sensitive information about strikes and YEM
Speaker 3: into an encrypted group chat that included his wife and brother.
Speaker 3: His brother, to be fair, actually works for the Pentagon,
Speaker 3: but his wife, yeah, not so much. It appears to
Speaker 3: have been a it appears to have been a scheduling
Speaker 3: like area, So there's not exactly it's not exactly clear
Speaker 3: why in the scheduling group chat that he was also
Speaker 3: sharing it attack details.
Speaker 1: But beyond the signal thing, because we've all covered that
Speaker 1: at this point.
Speaker 5: Beyond the signal, this was his personal phone, which we
Speaker 5: already knew, which apparently the other one was on his
Speaker 5: regular his work phone.
Speaker 1: Wait what thought it was his personal phone first?
Speaker 4: This one is is on his personal phone.
Speaker 1: Okay, I thought, maybe it's confirmed this time.
Speaker 5: This is the person His wife probably does not have
Speaker 5: her phone on lockdown mode either. Right there, you go,
Speaker 5: that's a good point. His wife's phone must be hacked.
Speaker 5: There's no like because she's known, you'd be an idiot.
Speaker 5: Not too right, because she's known to go to all
Speaker 5: these events and travel with him. So if you're any
Speaker 5: spy agency with Pegasus, which is like all the big ones, now,
Speaker 5: like you've hacked her phone, you were in there.
Speaker 1: Yeah that's right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well all right, so they possibly had access to that,
Speaker 3: you know. But beyond this is the reason that's coming
Speaker 3: out right now. By the way, according to the Pentagons
Speaker 3: would admission they're like former disgruntled employees. The reason why
Speaker 3: all these leaks are happening is because of the insane
Speaker 3: purge that is happening right now over at the Pentagon.
Speaker 3: So not only are as Pete hexet here back in
Speaker 3: the spotlight. He's going to have to answer for this
Speaker 3: before Congress investigations, et cetera. But already the Trump administration
Speaker 3: has set the standard that no, there was no classified
Speaker 3: informations cent here.
Speaker 1: Bullshit obviously.
Speaker 3: And number two, we're not going to hold anybody accountable
Speaker 3: for it, including Mike Waltz, the guy who literally is
Speaker 3: responsible for munch of this and for any op set
Speaker 3: concerns or whatever. But at the same time, they're firing
Speaker 3: a bunch of people who clearly knew about some of
Speaker 3: this stuff and are now out for revenge. They're out
Speaker 3: for blood, and we can see out of some of
Speaker 3: that right now, and there's deep policy implications.
Speaker 1: Let's put C two please up on the screen.
Speaker 3: This is a statement from three former Pentagon officials who
Speaker 3: were fired and unceremoniously marched out of the building. One
Speaker 3: of them former Senior Advisor Daan Caldwell. We've covered him
Speaker 3: on the show before. He's an America First appointee, very
Speaker 3: against war with Iran loyal sent out of the body,
Speaker 3: loyal ally for employee of HEGSATHT for over a decade.
Speaker 3: You've got his former deputy chief of staff, Darren Selnick
Speaker 3: and Colin Carroll, who is the Deputy Defense Secretary's former
Speaker 3: chief of staff as well. All said in a joint
Speaker 3: statement that they had quote not been told what exactly
Speaker 3: we were in investigated for, if there is still an
Speaker 3: on going investigation, or if there was even a real
Speaker 3: investigation of leaks to begin with.
Speaker 1: You know, remember in the original leaks around this, they
Speaker 1: we were told that this was a result of a
Speaker 1: leak investigation that involved.
Speaker 3: Polygraphs, and I was like, oh, man, that's like very serious. Well,
Speaker 3: actually it turns out none of them have been polygraphed.
Speaker 3: It was a complete like fake investigation from the first place.
Speaker 3: Where Pete Hegsat stands in all of this is totally unclear.
Speaker 3: It's like, are you running your own department? These are
Speaker 3: guys not only loyal to you, but are much more
Speaker 3: at least from what I know, are very against war
Speaker 3: with Iran some of the more like bad elements of
Speaker 3: the Trump administration's foreign policy, and for them to be fired. Meanwhile,
Speaker 3: they're protecting Mike Waltz and many of these other people
Speaker 3: obviously are very pro war. It's very troubling Ryan. So
Speaker 3: he's got former disgruntled staff on his hands. I mean,
Speaker 3: they're blaming the leaks on them. I don't know if
Speaker 3: it's true or not. It's possible, but I think more
Speaker 3: important is that when these people are not in the
Speaker 3: building with Hegsath around.
Speaker 1: Look, he's a sponge, let's be honest, right he whatever
Speaker 1: is around him.
Speaker 3: Well, if the only people that are left are the
Speaker 3: pro war with Iran goons, not so good. He was
Speaker 3: one of the only three people in the Oval to
Speaker 3: speak out against an attack on Iran that the Israelis
Speaker 3: wanted to.
Speaker 5: Say, right, and you see a lot of kind of
Speaker 5: Trump supporting bots responding to this by saying, Hey, Heggas
Speaker 5: is getting rid of the deep state, right, bro, hexts
Speaker 5: brought these people in state. These are not people who
Speaker 5: have been there before, hegseets. And now he's cleaning house. Yes,
Speaker 5: he built the house and then burn it and then
Speaker 5: burn it down. Immediately you put up this next element
Speaker 5: on the screen speaking of people he brought in. This
Speaker 5: is John Oillyacht, who was a the top spokesperson for
Speaker 5: Pete Hegset yesterday published an op ed in Politico absolutely
Speaker 5: ripping the Pentagon to shreds, saying that the thing is
Speaker 5: in complete meltdown. One of the things he goes after.
Speaker 5: The new kind of spokesperson department for Or was Hags's
Speaker 5: first response to the signal chat. He said, you know,
Speaker 5: Olliad says, the thing you do is you get all
Speaker 5: the bad news out first.
Speaker 6: Yes.
Speaker 5: Instead, they tried to play semantic games with whether or
Speaker 5: not these were war plans or attack plans, which then
Speaker 5: prompted Jeffrey Goldberg to release all the attack plans and say, okay,
Speaker 5: call them whatever you want. Here they are. From Olliot's perspective,
Speaker 5: it's like, dude, what are you doing? Like one oh
Speaker 5: one pr is to like seane Mike Waltz did that,
Speaker 5: we won't let it happen again. Instead, he turned it
Speaker 5: into a multi week story that then focused on him
Speaker 5: rather than Mike Waltz. Olliocht, interestingly, in this piece says
Speaker 5: outright that he doesn't think that these guys that were
Speaker 5: fired for leaking were actually leaking, and that some of
Speaker 5: them were told, according to Ouliot, that the investigation was
Speaker 5: about to wrap up and was going to exonerate them,
Speaker 5: and yet they were marched out anyway. Now we also
Speaker 5: know that Joe Casper, who is Pete hex That's chief
Speaker 5: of staff, is the one who was assigned to lead
Speaker 5: the league investigation.
Speaker 4: Now he claims that.
Speaker 5: He delegated this to other people that's fine. That's what
Speaker 5: chiefs of staff do. They delegate those. But he himself
Speaker 5: has now been moved out of his job. According to Politico,
Speaker 5: there's some dispute. There's some dispute about that, which is insane, Like, okay,
Speaker 5: wait a minute, are you the chief staff?
Speaker 4: You're not chief staff.
Speaker 3: The whole thing is preposterous, and we are watching these
Speaker 3: people now squabble in public, John Oliot, as you said,
Speaker 3: the former spokesperson. They're like, oh, he was invited to
Speaker 3: be fired or whatever. It's like, well, he was employed
Speaker 3: there for at least you hired him. And not only
Speaker 3: did you hire him, you've actually been working for the
Speaker 3: Trump administration of the campaign now for like some seven years.
Speaker 3: So you can't exactly say that this is not somebody,
Speaker 3: this is never knew the guy, never seen the guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah exactly, And.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm still a Hexth friend, right.
Speaker 1: Crazy within all of this.
Speaker 3: Let's put the next one up on the screen. Is
Speaker 3: you can see here how the entire like inner circle
Speaker 3: around Pete Hexath is now at war with one another.
Speaker 3: And then all of the people who it seems were
Speaker 3: most loyal to him somehow have been fired. Now I
Speaker 3: have a very difficult time seeing how you can be
Speaker 3: fired marched out of the building all the people who
Speaker 3: are allegedly so loyal to you without you having some
Speaker 3: say over it. I mean, can you really be fired
Speaker 3: of the Department of Defense without the say so of
Speaker 3: the you know, the Secretary of Defense.
Speaker 1: The person who's.
Speaker 3: Running must be read in on this, right, Yeah, So
Speaker 3: either you're read in or you're not read in.
Speaker 1: That's even scary. That means if the building is running
Speaker 1: without you, how.
Speaker 3: Does that work? Is it some deep state operation? That's
Speaker 3: what some people seem to be claiming. I just have
Speaker 3: no clue. I just know this is a cluster, and
Speaker 3: this is not how you run the largest office building
Speaker 3: in the entire world, right and literally the world's pre
Speaker 3: eminent superpowers military. It's not even just about competence. Like
Speaker 3: I said, the policy implications of this are crazy important
Speaker 3: because people around him had views, they had strong views,
Speaker 3: they'd been around him, they had trust, and in their
Speaker 3: trust they were able to advocate four of you, which
Speaker 3: is never held at the highest levels of the American government.
Speaker 3: It was one of the hopes I had for this administration.
Speaker 1: For this government.
Speaker 3: So then to watch them get unceremoniously forced out and
Speaker 3: then similarly to see Mike Wallas and the idiots around
Speaker 3: him not only to be elevated, but to be entrenched
Speaker 3: in power at a critical decision time about war with Iran.
Speaker 1: Very scary RN and.
Speaker 5: What's unfortunate for the quote unquote America first side of
Speaker 5: the foreign policy argument is that Hegseeth claimed to be
Speaker 5: and was kind of sold as somebody who had been
Speaker 5: on the kind of warhawk side of foreign policy, supported
Speaker 5: the Iraq war, et cetera. But you know, through his
Speaker 5: through his lived experience as the left would call it,
Speaker 5: and you know, through his camaraderie with veterans and seeing
Speaker 5: the absolute failure of American foreign policy to achieve the
Speaker 5: outcome that that that the young men and women were
Speaker 5: sent to achieve, many of them dying to achieves and
Speaker 5: then seeing it like just all turned to ashes right
Speaker 5: in their mouth, that he turned into an America first guy,
Speaker 5: if that's if that's true, he has he has not
Speaker 5: stood up to that. There's so much pressure kind of
Speaker 5: in the Pentagon and in a war machine to become
Speaker 5: to push back to that warhawks side. He doesn't seem
Speaker 5: like he's been able to withstand that pressure and instead
Speaker 5: has pushed aside all of the people that would help
Speaker 5: him stand up to that.
Speaker 4: One person I talked to who.
Speaker 5: Knows all of these people, including hag Seth, said that
Speaker 5: it's a question of character that that heg Seth has
Speaker 5: betrayed everybody who's ever been close to him in his life.
Speaker 5: And you can you can run, you can run through
Speaker 5: his life, ask his mother. Actually, well, I'm not going
Speaker 5: to go there, but now it matters because this matters
Speaker 5: to policy. And so now he has betrayed all of
Speaker 5: those people who are professionally and personally close to him,
Speaker 5: that he served with, that he worked in, concerned veterans
Speaker 5: of America with UH, and is sycophantically siding with the
Speaker 5: with the more like bloodthirsty generals and others who are
Speaker 5: pushing him to stop stop saying those stop, don't get
Speaker 5: in the way of this, like let's let's let's let's
Speaker 5: bomb these people and just see what happens. And the
Speaker 5: other knock on him besides the personal stuff, was that
Speaker 5: you've never run a large organization before, and now you're
Speaker 5: being asked to run the largest organization in the history
Speaker 5: of the world.
Speaker 4: Are you going to be up for that. We now
Speaker 4: have the answer, no, you're not up for it now.
Speaker 5: On the one hand, as somebody who doesn't want the
Speaker 5: Defense Department to accomplish its subjectives, I support it being okay,
Speaker 5: but I don't want it to be a flailing Exactly
Speaker 5: what happens is there's a limit to that becomes a
Speaker 5: power vacuum.
Speaker 3: The building will just do whatever the White House or
Speaker 3: them tell you. A week Pentagon is actually very bad, yeah,
Speaker 3: because it means that the White House is not only
Speaker 3: totally in control, but also that they like, you need
Speaker 3: war planners, you need advisors, you need people to game
Speaker 3: all of this stuff out. And if you have a
Speaker 3: vacuum there at the top, first of all, you're just
Speaker 3: going to leave it to the career staff, who you know,
Speaker 3: we should trust the least. But then also you're going
Speaker 3: to leave it to the vacuum of the neocons who
Speaker 3: are running the national.
Speaker 5: Security And it often is throughout history the men and
Speaker 5: women who've been through war and are now at the
Speaker 5: top echelons of the military, both in the United States
Speaker 5: and other militaries, who paradoxically are the ones in the
Speaker 5: room who are saying this might not be a good idea.
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely yeah, I'm.
Speaker 4: What Sherman said.
Speaker 5: Nobody who what do you say, Nobody who's been to war,
Speaker 5: you know, could think it's anything other than hell.
Speaker 4: It was something war as hell.
Speaker 5: And anybody who you know who says otherwise hasn't been
Speaker 5: involved in it. And they have the credibility to then
Speaker 5: put the brakes on the chickenhawk neo cons who are
Speaker 5: who are just ready to just you know, launch tomahawks
Speaker 5: at for for whatever reason they can think of the
Speaker 5: best the best time to attack Ron's yesterday, second best
Speaker 5: would be today. If not, if not that, let's plan
Speaker 5: for tomorrow.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 5: And so without a without a Pentagon, without any steady leadership,
Speaker 5: you write, you could create a vacuum.
Speaker 4: That's people like that creep in