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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of the show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll access to our full shows, unedited, ad free and

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Speaker 2: all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Monday. We have an

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Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today, bro show people live for

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Speaker 3: the Pound. Ryan Grimm is here in the house and

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Speaker 3: we have a packed show.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's see what we've got here.

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Speaker 3: Toughest part of the job, El Salvador, we're going to

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Speaker 3: be having peace go on from uh he's previously joined us.

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Speaker 3: He's a lawyer, he's got a lot of expertise on immigration.

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Speaker 3: You did a very good job of explaining and breaking

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Speaker 3: stuff down. There has been so many legal developments just

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Speaker 3: over the last like forty eight hours or is the

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Speaker 3: Supreme Court has gotten involved, basically blocked the entire Trump

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Speaker 3: administration using the Alien Enemies Act. He's gonna explain what

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Speaker 3: that means, what the justification is, and what the future

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Speaker 3: looks like.

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Speaker 1: We are going to talk about tariffs.

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Speaker 3: There's been some major hang ups in the Trump administration's

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Speaker 3: plan to negotiate bilateral trade agreements. The country of Japan

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Speaker 3: has indicated it is not going to see two US demands.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of watch on Japan because it's the

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Speaker 3: first major ally to actually negotiate with the Trump administration here,

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Speaker 3: and there's some troubling signs as well as some peak

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Speaker 3: behind the curtain of how we got our little ninety

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Speaker 3: day pause. It's not exactly the best and the brightest.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk about Pete hagg Set and Pete

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Speaker 3: hagg Set. It seems there's just insane insanity.

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Speaker 1: Going on right now at the Pentagon.

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Speaker 3: There's a full scale perch, a literal purge of top officials,

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Speaker 3: many of whom are very against war with Iran, where

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Speaker 3: loyal to Pete hagg Sat. They all appear to have

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Speaker 3: been fired and at the very same time heg sat

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Speaker 3: now embroiled in a scandal where he allegedly sent those

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Speaker 3: same Yemen war plans to a group chat which included

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Speaker 3: his wife and brother. We are going to talk about

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Speaker 3: a little story here that Ryan and I worked on together.

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Speaker 1: I believe Ryan.

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Speaker 3: It's my first byline in six years, So it's good

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Speaker 3: to be back. It's going to be back at drop

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Speaker 3: sites and.

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Speaker 4: For people who aren't in journalism.

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Speaker 5: When two people write a story together, they called it

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Speaker 5: co byline, we gotta go with cobro line.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, cob bro like get a lot.

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Speaker 4: I like it.

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Speaker 3: It's good to be back. Ryan and I worked on

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Speaker 3: the story together. An exclusive report that our subscribers will

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Speaker 3: hear first. So if you want to get that, go ahead.

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Speaker 3: Breakingpoints dot Com not going to give it away guess yet.

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Speaker 1: Israel. We're going to talk about some updates there.

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Speaker 3: Of course, just Israel admitting that they killed those medics.

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Speaker 1: They call it a mistake. They fired the brigade.

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Speaker 5: This is what accountability means. They removed one guy, that's

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Speaker 5: his job.

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Speaker 6: That's it.

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Speaker 3: And beyond that, Ryan, you're going to get into how

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Speaker 3: the deal, the TikTok of how they even got to

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Speaker 3: an admission of guilt.

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Speaker 1: A lot of it was because of you guys. A

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Speaker 1: lot of it was because of.

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Speaker 3: Journalists that were there on the ground, reporting from behind

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Speaker 3: the scenes, and it was specifically not because the legacy

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Speaker 3: media that forced this. We're going to as well give

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Speaker 3: some updates on the Iran potential Iran deal. There is

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Speaker 3: a full scale war and this relates very much the

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Speaker 3: story that Ryan and I are doing a full scale

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Speaker 3: war inside the Trump administration itself over the feasibility of

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Speaker 3: these continued negotiations with Iran. Negotiations do continue and they're

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Speaker 3: very positive signals. Of course, they could fall apart at

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Speaker 3: any time, and the neo con war on the individuals

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Speaker 3: who were involved, people like Steve Wikoff, Adam Boehler and

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Speaker 3: others continues. The Israel lobby is throwing everything they possibly

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Speaker 3: can to kill these We're going to give everybody an update.

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Speaker 3: And then finally, finally, some interesting moments there on the

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Speaker 3: Joe Rogan experience with Tim Dillon Rogan openly mockt Douglas

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Speaker 3: Murray and Douglas Murray and Bill Maher teaming up to

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Speaker 3: openly go after Joe Rogan. Interesting all former guests and friends,

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Speaker 3: you know, apparently together.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot going on.

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Speaker 4: There, makes it too easy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, have seen too Yeah, I mean it's too Goodsten Douglas,

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Speaker 3: you did it to yourself, brother, You make yourself look

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Speaker 3: like an idio.

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Speaker 1: People are gonna take a notice, all right.

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Speaker 3: So before we get to that, just thank you to

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Speaker 3: everybody he's been subscribing to Breakingpoints dot com. Ryan and

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Speaker 3: Emlin did a fantastic job on the Friday Show, which,

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Speaker 3: of course we have extra premium content that they did

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Speaker 3: for us on Friday, available only to.

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Speaker 1: Our premium subscribers.

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Speaker 3: Tomorrow, Kris and I will be doing our live Ask

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Speaker 3: Me Anything and their continued expansions here. So if you

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Speaker 3: can support us Breakingpoints dot Com again. If you cannot,

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Speaker 3: it's totally fine. Just make sure that you like and

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Speaker 3: subscribe either to this video or any of the other

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Speaker 3: videos they're watching. And guys, if you are listening, just

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Speaker 3: go ahead take this podcast episode and send it to

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Speaker 3: a friend, lead a five star review. It's the best

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Speaker 3: possible thing you could do for this.

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Speaker 5: If you can do it now, you should do it

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Speaker 5: now because thanks to Trump, you might not be able

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Speaker 5: to do it soon because it might be laid off soon.

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Speaker 4: So point spend it while you've got it.

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Speaker 5: Yes, Yes, support something that you care about so that

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Speaker 5: it can survive the coming time.

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Speaker 1: There you go, all right, well, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Yes for and I do.

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Speaker 3: I would never advocate for anybody going too credit card dad,

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Speaker 3: So if that's true, just.

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Speaker 1: Like it to spare card like a share and subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the and send it to a friend. All right,

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Speaker 1: No hard feelings.

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Speaker 3: Also, we had some very sad news that broke overnight.

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Speaker 3: Pope Francis officially died. He's eighty eight years old. Just

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Speaker 3: met literally yesterday with the Vice President of the United States.

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Speaker 1: He wasn't looking so good in that.

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Speaker 3: But of course there will be kickoff the major conclave

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Speaker 3: and all of the traditions surrounding the selection of the

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Speaker 3: new pope.

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Speaker 1: So it is an end of an era. Certainly condolences

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Speaker 1: all the Catholics out there.

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Speaker 5: And we'll talk about this later on the program. And

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Speaker 5: I promise I will not make fun of Jade vans Ford.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I mean you can.

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Speaker 3: I mean it's objectively funny, but I mean, you know,

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Speaker 3: it's not a funny moment, of course, for what is

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Speaker 3: it a billion Catholics something like that. He lived a

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Speaker 3: life around the world. Yeah, he had a very interesting life.

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Speaker 3: So we'll talk a little bit about his legacy. We'll

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Speaker 3: talk about it there at the end. But with that,

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Speaker 3: let's go ahead and get to Pisco. He's waiting for us.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now is Pisco. He is the host of

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Speaker 3: Pisco's Hour for our purposes. He's actually an attorney and

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Speaker 3: he's got a lot of specialization in immigration. She's been

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Speaker 3: doing a decent job. He joined us before. He did

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Speaker 3: a great job breaking down those legal developments. And we

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Speaker 3: have even more legal developments here, specifically involving the Supreme Court. So, guys,

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Speaker 3: let's go ahead and put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 3: This came over the weekend where it was an extraordinary

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Speaker 3: order from the United States Supreme Court, the Supreme Court

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Speaker 3: blocking the Trump administration from deporting foreign nationals under the

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Speaker 3: Alien Enemies Act. So peace, go go ahead and describe

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Speaker 3: this order, how many justices were for, how many were against,

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Speaker 3: the timing of which it came out, because there was

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Speaker 3: a lot of legal analysis going over the entire breath

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Speaker 3: of the decision.

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Speaker 7: Go ahead, yeah, sure, So this is an extraordinary order.

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Speaker 7: The ACLU went to the District Court, went to the

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Speaker 7: Appellate Court, the Fifth Circuit, and then also to the

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Speaker 7: Supreme Court, almost concurrently, you know, within hours of each other,

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Speaker 7: because there was news that the Trump administration was moving

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Speaker 7: quickly to deport tons of alleged alien enemies. If you

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Speaker 7: remember the last time we spoke, there was that ruling

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Speaker 7: and holding that even alleged alien enemies are entitled to

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Speaker 7: do process and to have habeas petitions. While as I predicted,

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Speaker 7: and as you know, we talked about, they were going

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Speaker 7: to interpret what reasonable noticement and according to the ACLU,

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Speaker 7: that meant twenty four hours and you got to sort

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Speaker 7: of signal that you were going to file a habeas petition.

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Speaker 6: And so in an.

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Speaker 7: Extraordinary order, the Supreme Court at like one o'clock in

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Speaker 7: the morning ordered quote the government to stop and pause

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Speaker 7: any deportations under the Alien Enemies Act. It was right now,

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Speaker 7: there's only two noted descents. We don't know for sure

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Speaker 7: that all the other seven were in favor, but there

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Speaker 7: were no other noted descents.

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Speaker 6: So people are assuming now that there was a seven too, holding.

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Speaker 7: To pause all Alien Enemies Act deportations in a certain

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Speaker 7: part of Texas.

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Speaker 5: Okay, so let's put up a two speaking of these descents.

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Speaker 5: This is sam Alido. He writes in some literally in

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Speaker 5: the middle of the night, the court issued unprecedented and

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Speaker 5: legally questionable relief, without giving the lower courts a chance

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Speaker 5: to rule, without hearing from the opposing party, within eight

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Speaker 5: hours of receiving the application, with dubious factual support for

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Speaker 5: its order, and without providing any explanation for its order.

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Speaker 5: Refused to join the courts order because we had no

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Speaker 5: good reason to think that under the circumstances, issuing an

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Speaker 5: order at midnight was necessary or appropriate. Both the executive

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Speaker 5: and the judiciary have an obligation to follow the law now.

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Speaker 5: At the same time, you had a rather dramatic circuit

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Speaker 5: court hearing with the judge there that the Trump administration

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Speaker 5: kind of despises, where you had the attorneys for the

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Speaker 5: migrants saying, we are hearing that people are being ordered

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Speaker 5: to change clothes right now, like we can smell the

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Speaker 5: fumes of the of the buses that are going to

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Speaker 5: take these men to the airport. Please, sir, please your honor,

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Speaker 5: like you have to act now. And he refused to

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Speaker 5: step in, saying that he didn't have the jurisdiction at

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Speaker 5: the time to inject himself into the controversy. But the

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Speaker 5: Supreme Court did then just hours later. So can you

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Speaker 5: talk about Alito's claim here that there actually is no

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Speaker 5: urgency and that they shouldn't get done that. Where were

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Speaker 5: the people in question at this moment?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, by all accounts, the reporting is they were on

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Speaker 7: buses ready to go to the airport and they were

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Speaker 7: getting ready to take off. Now, I think you're referencing

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Speaker 7: a hearing with Judge Boseburg, and in that case it's

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Speaker 7: in a different jurisdiction. Boseburg is pretty much saying saying,

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Speaker 7: you know, my hands are tied. The Supreme Court said,

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Speaker 7: you know, the right venue for these habeas petitions has

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Speaker 7: to be in the place where the confinement you know,

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Speaker 7: was at the time the the Habey's pission was filed.

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Speaker 7: And so I actually don't blame Boseburg at all. He

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Speaker 7: was just you know, holding on to that rule earlier.

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Speaker 5: His people as well, because it covers all class of

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Speaker 5: people under the Alien Enemies ect.

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Speaker 7: It covers only people in Texas. The Supreme Court's order itself.

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Speaker 7: And but Boseburg is saying, listen, I don't have jurisdiction here.

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Speaker 7: I have to listen to the Supreme Court. So that

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Speaker 7: makes sense. As for Alito's concerns in ordinary circumstances, yeah,

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Speaker 7: Alito would be right. You know, you're supposed to go

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Speaker 7: through the ordinary process of appeal. You're supposed to, you know,

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Speaker 7: make sure that you're exhausting your remedies in the district

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Speaker 7: court and then at the Circuit Court of Appeals. Here's

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Speaker 7: the problem, nobody believes the government when they say, hey,

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Speaker 7: we're not going to deport these people. Oftentimes they're not

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Speaker 7: even able to make those representations in court. Oftentimes, you know,

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Speaker 7: they lie. You know, they're already lying about the decision.

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Speaker 7: They say that it was nine to zero in their favor,

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Speaker 7: the previous decision for kill Mar and Brego Garcia, and

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Speaker 7: so you can tell the Supreme Court they're a little spooked.

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Speaker 7: I think that those seven justices they don't trust the administration.

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Speaker 7: And so when Alito says there's no factual basis to

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Speaker 7: believe that these people are about to be deported, he's

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Speaker 7: taking the government at their word.

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Speaker 6: And what the government has shown is you shouldn't.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's actually the most interesting part about

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Speaker 3: the late night decision is it was clearly to the

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Speaker 3: Supreme Court trying to assert its jurisdiction and its orders

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Speaker 3: after watching the Trump administration and the way they have

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Speaker 3: handled a lot of the kill Mar Abrego Garcia case,

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Speaker 3: speaking of which there have been some extraordinary developments on

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Speaker 3: that over the weekend as well. We had a couple

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Speaker 3: of instances. Ryan and Emily did a good job on

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Speaker 3: Friday of breaking down the meeting between Senator Chris van

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Speaker 3: Holland and Abrego Garcia that took place in Elsialvador. But

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Speaker 3: what actually came following that announcement was interesting as well,

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Speaker 3: a continued claim from the Trump administration that Abrago Garcia

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Speaker 3: was a confirmed member of MS thirteen. We have a

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Speaker 3: little bit here from Abrago Garcia's lawyer being asked specifically

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Speaker 3: about tattoos that allegedly show his MS thirteen membership on

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Speaker 3: his hands, and then I want to get your reaction afterwards.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to his lawyer.

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Speaker 8: One thing that we've heard from the legal team and

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Speaker 8: against this allegation from the White House is about his history.

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Speaker 8: I know that you've said he doesn't have a criminal history,

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Speaker 8: that he had never been arrested for anything before people

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Speaker 8: to the White House have pointed out to me. They

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Speaker 8: say that doesn't mean that he wasn't a member of

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Speaker 8: MS thirteen. There's not always criminal activity on someone's record

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Speaker 8: if they are in a gang. And I want to

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Speaker 8: show you something that the President posted tonight. It's a

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Speaker 8: photo of what he says is your client's left hand.

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Speaker 8: You can see his knuckles there, and the President is

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Speaker 8: showing these tattoos that the White House alleges.

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Speaker 3: Break down what's going on there in terms of the claim.

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Speaker 3: I know that you've looked and actually read a lot

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Speaker 3: of the docket. There's a lot of conservative influencers of

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Speaker 3: like a confirmed member of MS thirteen break it all

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Speaker 3: down for the audience here.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, So, first of all, it's important to note that

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Speaker 7: it doesn't matter even if you were an MS thirteen member.

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Speaker 7: Even the worst criminals in the country deserve due process,

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Speaker 7: and none of the Supreme Courts holding related to due

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Speaker 7: process you rely on whether or not you're a member

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Speaker 7: of MS R teen or not. But to actually address

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Speaker 7: the claim, they're basing on a sort of police report

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Speaker 7: that existed in twenty nineteen where a cop who was

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Speaker 7: later sort of suspended for behavior that's frankly, you know,

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Speaker 7: I don't know if I would say corrupt, but certainly

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Speaker 7: bad behavior where he was having sex with a prostitute

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Speaker 7: that he was also feeding you know, confidential information to

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Speaker 7: and this cop on the basis of really just hearsay,

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Speaker 7: someone said he's a member of MS thirteen and he's

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Speaker 7: wearing like Chicago Bulls clothing. They alleged that he was

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Speaker 7: a member of MS thirteen, and so that claim got

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Speaker 7: sort of funneled into the immigration court.

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Speaker 4: Say like do we even know that this person exists?

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Speaker 6: Like, we don't know who this person's name is, We

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Speaker 6: don't know who they are.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, right, So the holdings of the immigration courts were

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Speaker 7: with respect to a bond hearing. Okay, a bond hearing

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Speaker 7: is a very different threshold than a finding a fact,

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Speaker 7: And like, you know, if there's some issue, uh, you know,

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Speaker 7: some legal issue that needs to be fettered out by

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Speaker 7: the court, imagine it, right, Imagine if in a bond

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Speaker 7: hearing you were accused of murder or something and the

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Speaker 7: court found probable costs to hold you or just to

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Speaker 7: hold you, right, just the amount of evidence it would

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Speaker 7: take for you know, them to keep you in a

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Speaker 7: cage until there is the process right. You don't have

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Speaker 7: any right to cross examine this person. There was no

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Speaker 7: availability of this officer to be cross examined. And so

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Speaker 7: it is the height I think of, you know, a

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Speaker 7: propagandist to suggest that these rulings related to the bond hearing,

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Speaker 7: you know, are actual findings of fact that the member

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Speaker 7: of MS R team, and all the evidence is to

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Speaker 7: the contrary in my opinion. No criminal record here, no

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Speaker 7: criminal record in El Salvador. You know those tattoos, it's

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Speaker 7: it's like the Glenn Beck You guys ever see the

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Speaker 7: Glenn Beck board where they're just like connecting dots and

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Speaker 7: they're saying that the marijuana leaf represents M, the smiley

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Speaker 7: face represents S, and so they're just trying to make connections.

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Speaker 6: There.

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Speaker 5: Don't how much you know about MS thirteen, but if

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Speaker 5: people look up the tattoos that MS thirteen gang members wear,

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Speaker 5: they will write MS thirteen, like across their face, it's

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Speaker 5: blaring and underlining, it's circling it all across their back.

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Speaker 4: MS thirteen.

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Speaker 5: They are not a shy gang like, they're not the

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Speaker 5: kind They're not like a fourteen year old who's, you know,

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Speaker 5: trying to get like something past their their parents or

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Speaker 5: their teacher, like haha, haa, I got a little marijuana leaf,

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Speaker 5: but it actually means the M and MS thirteen Like

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Speaker 5: they blare it out, you get kicked out of the gang.

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Speaker 5: If you're like, wait, are you in MS thirteen or not?

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Speaker 1: Like what is this me noted MS thirteen?

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Speaker 7: Expert, right, exactly, no, no, no, But you read the

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Speaker 7: like the tattoo analysis documents that they're giving to some

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Speaker 7: of these ice officers, and they're you, you know, there's

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Speaker 7: one tattoo. I remember it said ral asadamorte, which means

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Speaker 7: you know, real Madrid until death. But people take that

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Speaker 7: to be like a gang tattoo. It's just, you know,

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Speaker 7: absurd the lengths they'll go to. And even with some

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Speaker 7: of these other cases that are not seen as much coverage,

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Speaker 7: I think simply because this kill mar Garcia case is

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Speaker 7: so preposterous and so unlawful, but there are other cases

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Speaker 7: where we know, like it's an autism tattoo, or it's

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Speaker 7: a tattoo that says mom or dad, and so nobody

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Speaker 7: trust these tattoo experts, and when they actually go to court,

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Speaker 7: some of these habeas petitions have been brought in court.

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Speaker 7: In at least one instance, the court has asked the government, hey,

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Speaker 7: what's your evidence of this person as a gang member

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Speaker 7: and an alien enemy? And they have literally put up nothing, zero,

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Speaker 7: like not even just saying like the bad evidence that

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Speaker 7: they have here or the doctored photo or whatever.

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Speaker 6: They have put up no evidence.

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Speaker 7: And so this is really disturbing, and we shouldn't trust

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Speaker 7: the government's representations as to kill mar or as to

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Speaker 7: any of these alleged alien enemies.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, just real quickly, I've seen real tattoo. People say.

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Speaker 5: The most logical explanation for it would be weed makes

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Speaker 5: me happy. So Soccer would like to see him depoint it,

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Speaker 5: deport it just for that weed makes me happy, you know,

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Speaker 5: faith in the Lord till I die, like the Lord

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Speaker 5: till I die?

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Speaker 3: Or what if it's faith in weed, which is even worse.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get to make.

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Speaker 4: It serious, all right, give them a second to make

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Speaker 4: it serious.

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Speaker 1: To make it serious, let's let's turn to Tom Homan.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be serious. Ryan's still on his high from

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Speaker 1: four to twenty.

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Speaker 6: This is going on, all right.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to Tom Homan.

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Speaker 3: He's the immigrations are and he's asked specifically about this

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Speaker 3: tattoo identification process.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 9: But no one's removed just because of a tattoo.

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Speaker 10: In other words, the alienity next to me is you

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Speaker 10: can grab somebody and you can deport them without an

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Speaker 10: extended hearing because you have labeled them a terrorist, because

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Speaker 10: you've because you've said you've determined that somebody is a

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Speaker 10: member of the gang, and therefore they don't have to

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Speaker 10: go through the extended process of the of the opportunity

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Speaker 10: to have a full hearing.

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Speaker 6: That's what you're saying. And let's just be clear.

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Speaker 9: I'm saying, we're founding the laws of this country and

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Speaker 9: there's a different procedure of each one. We're doing things

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Speaker 9: when in the frame of the law, we're doing things legally. Okay,

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Speaker 9: I stand by that. Now Again, I'm not a constitutionist scholar.

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Speaker 9: I'm not going to argue this in court. That's what

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Speaker 9: the partner of justice does. But we're still I'm sitting

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Speaker 9: here today, I think we've done the right thing for

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Speaker 9: this nation, found the laws in the constitution in this country.

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Speaker 3: So what do you get from that about not only

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Speaker 3: that the defense of the alien Enemies Act, the tattoo

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Speaker 3: justification and more.

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Speaker 7: What do you think, Yeah, this guy's a depraved individual.

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Speaker 7: He has no idea what the law is. And they're

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Speaker 7: an open defiance of the Supreme Court. They're claiming that

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Speaker 7: they only have to give twenty four hours notice to people,

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Speaker 7: and that constitutes reasonable notice for some of these people

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Speaker 7: who don't even speak English to file habeas petitions. They

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Speaker 7: know they're flowed in the Supreme Court. That's one ruling, right,

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Speaker 7: that's the ruling related to the Alien Exact, that you

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Speaker 7: deserve a habea's petition.

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Speaker 6: That's one rulein that they're violating.

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Speaker 7: The second rule that they're violating is they're still not

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Speaker 7: facilitating the release from custody in El Salvador of Kilmore

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Speaker 7: and now apparently he's been moved around multiple times. So

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Speaker 7: on the one hand, what I get from that is

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Speaker 7: open defiance. And the people who's most in charge of

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Speaker 7: the quote unquote border or enforcement doesn't even know the

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Speaker 7: bare bones of their enforcement policy, isn't able to speak

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Speaker 7: about it intelligently in a conversation, and in general, I

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Speaker 7: think this entire endeavor has been characterized by unlawfulness and illegality.

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Speaker 7: So his pretense that they've been doing everything to follow

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Speaker 7: the law, I think is just absurd.

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Speaker 3: On the moving around part, that was one where I

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Speaker 3: was very confused as well. So Senator Chris van Holland,

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Speaker 3: who met with Garcia, broke down some of the things

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Speaker 3: he learned, not only about Garcia, but also about the

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Speaker 3: arrangement between the United States and El Salvador.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to that, and I want your

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Speaker 1: reaction as well.

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Speaker 11: The Trump administration has promised to pay El Salvador fifteen

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Speaker 11: million dollars to detain these prisoners, including the illegally abducted filmore.

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Speaker 12: Say honestly something about the government of Elsalvador. They are

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Speaker 12: making a huge mistake.

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Speaker 6: You know.

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Speaker 12: They want to brand themselves as a country for technology. Yeah,

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Speaker 12: you know, the presidents you know bitcoin is legal tender.

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Speaker 12: But now what they're branding themselves as as the place

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Speaker 12: for these huge prisons where people who are illegally deducted,

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Speaker 12: excuse me, illegally abducted.

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Speaker 4: Are warehoused.

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Speaker 12: There may be states that decide, you know, they don't

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Speaker 12: want any of their pension funds invested in companies that

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Speaker 12: invest in a place like El salvare.

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Speaker 3: So that was an interesting kind of breakdown. He talked

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Speaker 3: about how there's a nine million dollar arrangement between the

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Speaker 3: United States and El Salvador about this movement of prisons.

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Speaker 3: What does that so, I mean, beyond the interest in

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Speaker 3: that in his particular circumstances, what does that.

439
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 1: Mean for this legal arrangement.

440
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,479
Speaker 3: That's what a lot of people are trying to get

441
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 3: their heads around, both in the facilitation in terms of

442
00:19:49,640 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 3: ever being able to bring them back even if you

443
00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 3: were to be deported again. Can you can you break

444
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 3: some of that down for us?

445
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 6: Yeah?

446
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,679
Speaker 7: I think legally what is relevant about that is for

447
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 7: purposes of the concern regarding the Article to encroachment of

448
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,479
Speaker 7: the court. So you'll remember and recall there was this

449
00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:09,119
Speaker 7: big discussion about, well, what can the Article two district

450
00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 7: court or our Article three district court order the administration

451
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,960
Speaker 7: to actually do you know, just facilitate me, I get

452
00:20:15,960 --> 00:20:20,080
Speaker 7: to order the Trump administration to invade El Salvador. Surely

453
00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 7: it can't mean that, And so for purposes of that analysis,

454
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:26,080
Speaker 7: I think the fact that there is a payment relationship

455
00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 7: there makes us much more like a contracting situation. And

456
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:31,680
Speaker 7: I think everyone would agree, right imagine that Guantanamo Bay

457
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 7: were being outsourced overset over Wa Tamamobai were being outsourced

458
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 7: to a private corporation or even like a foreign country

459
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 7: operate in Guantanamo Obay. That the nature of the payment

460
00:20:43,080 --> 00:20:47,120
Speaker 7: structure there sort of informs the court who actually has

461
00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 7: the authority right if if he's in constructive custody of

462
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 7: the United States, regardless of whether or not the prison

463
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 7: guards themselves are Americans. That's a very different situation than

464
00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 7: Britney Griner when she's in prison by the Russian Federation.

465
00:20:58,080 --> 00:20:59,439
Speaker 7: And so I think those are all things at the

466
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 7: Court is going to take into consideration there, and I

467
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 7: think it is legally relevant.

468
00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 1: Okay, Ran, you got anything else?

469
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:06,439
Speaker 11: All right?

470
00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:06,919
Speaker 7: It?

471
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 6: Well, I have a question for you, Seger.

472
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 1: Sure, Tager, but yeah, oh.

473
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,639
Speaker 7: About Tager, I put my apologies. Isn't this condemnable? Didn't

474
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 7: the Trump administration do the wrong thing here?

475
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 1: Oh? Absolutely?

476
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 3: I mean I think that the way this has been

477
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 3: handled has been really a disaster. And I think, you

478
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 3: know the interesting thing, you know, I just I've said

479
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,439
Speaker 3: this to Crystal also to Glenn as well, Like my

480
00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:29,119
Speaker 3: initial reaction, you know, to the entire case was a

481
00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 3: baseline trust in like, not even trust per se, but

482
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 3: just in basic competence that I didn't expect that you

483
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 3: could actually be in a world where you would be

484
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 3: not only about Abrego Garcia being mistakenly deported, but where

485
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 3: you know, the United States criminal justice system validates gang

486
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 3: members in the brear of prisons literally every day. So

487
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 3: you would think that there is some baseline assumption around

488
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,640
Speaker 3: how to classify people as a gang member. Let's say

489
00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 3: you have eight to ten million, eight to ten million

490
00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 3: I legals enter the country under Biden this conservative estimate,

491
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:02,960
Speaker 3: and it's like, okay, it's reasonably assumption, you know, And

492
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 3: it's a reasonable assumption I think to say that a

493
00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 3: two hundred and fifty or so they say that they're

494
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 3: the worst of the worst. I actually, you know, I've

495
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 3: approached that from a position of like, yeah, you know,

496
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 3: it sounds relatively reasonable. And then to see the way

497
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,439
Speaker 3: that these claims have all fallen apart in court and

498
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 3: then the way that they've handled it, now, yeah, I

499
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 3: just don't think that it falls both under any legal scrutiny.

500
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:24,320
Speaker 3: But I think also, you know, one of the things

501
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,560
Speaker 3: I didn't take seriously at the time was not only

502
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 3: the due process, per position for any person in the

503
00:22:30,400 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 3: United States. But it really does validate a lot of

504
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,479
Speaker 3: libertarian concerns and about defending the principle, even whenever it's

505
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 3: something that you matter the most, because it's obvious here

506
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 3: now that this is just the way that the administration

507
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 3: conducts itself, both on an immigration level, but also really

508
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 3: across the board whenever it comes to tariffs, whenever it

509
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:46,400
Speaker 3: comes to so many of the different things.

510
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 1: Signal gate the sheer stupidity, the.

511
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 3: Incompetence, and then also just asking people to defend something

512
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,919
Speaker 3: of which they themselves are admitting fault in a court

513
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 3: and then breaking it so that you have to completely

514
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 3: debase yourself. So yeah, I know, you know, you know,

515
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 3: I'm sure you wanted your gotcha, but you got you know,

516
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 3: you got right.

517
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:04,399
Speaker 6: Yes, I appreciate that.

518
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 5: So I was coming around on this and a very

519
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 5: very tiny part of me is mad at the Trump

520
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 5: administration for what it did to its own supporters here

521
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 5: because it took it took the faith that its supporters

522
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:20,120
Speaker 5: had that Trump was going to be diligent and honest

523
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 5: about Now, I never he didn't betray me, because I

524
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 5: never felt like he would do that. But they really

525
00:23:25,760 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 5: believe that, Okay, he's going to go in and he's

526
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,360
Speaker 5: going to find three hundred of the worst, the worst,

527
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 5: and he's going to get them, get them out of here,

528
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 5: and instead he swept up. You know, at least it

529
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 5: looks like more than one hundred people have no gang

530
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 5: affiliation whatsoever. They're not even claiming they have gang affiliation.

531
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:43,800
Speaker 5: The country's focused on Abrello Garcia, but you know, we

532
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 5: reported on what's his name, Sergio Reyes, who is a

533
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 5: goalkeeper from Venezuela who had a real Madrid. Another real

534
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,360
Speaker 5: Madrid victim had a real Madrid tattoo and they locked

535
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:53,919
Speaker 5: him up for that.

536
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 4: Another one had.

537
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:59,280
Speaker 5: Like a tattoo autism awareness for because he had an

538
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 5: autistic brother. Then of course there's the makeup artist who

539
00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 5: clearly is not an MS thirteen member, but I maybe.

540
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 4: Had a tattoo.

541
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 5: I forget why he wound up there, just mistake after

542
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 5: mistake and using people's kind of earnest support for the

543
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 5: Trump administration to marshal the capital to do that.

544
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think runs exactly right.

545
00:24:20,920 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 3: And politically, I mean, I still think immigration is the

546
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 3: strongest ground that the Trump administration falls on, and I

547
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,480
Speaker 3: think a lot of people are deluding themselves and thinking

548
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 3: that this is going to be like dramatically unpopular. Most

549
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 3: people don't watch the news or segments like this, and

550
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 3: they're broadly just like, oh, it was a gang member.

551
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 3: You know, there's still a lot of trust in the

552
00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 3: Trump administration from the people who voted for Donald Trump,

553
00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:41,640
Speaker 3: but at a serious level, I mean, I think all

554
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: the concerns not only about due process, but about the

555
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,959
Speaker 3: basic competence that an American can have in their government

556
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,359
Speaker 3: in executing a policy which I do think was validated

557
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: at a large level by the American electorate on terms

558
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:56,919
Speaker 3: of mass deportation. There was at least an assumption about

559
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 3: some basic levels of competence. One of the major hits

560
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: on the Biden administration was these of the most incompetent

561
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 3: people who've ever run the government.

562
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 1: Look at the state of the country.

563
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 3: We're going to restore some sense of normalcy, and I

564
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 3: just don't see that. You know, we've been some of

565
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 3: the ninety days ninety days now right in terms of

566
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 3: the Trump administration, from the DOGE cuts, which we're supposed

567
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 3: to be two trillion now they're one trinal. It's like

568
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 3: it really does become an all encompassing framework. And sure,

569
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 3: you know, liberals can say I told you so, but

570
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 3: you know, it's not like there's a lot of people

571
00:25:23,080 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 3: who trust them per se. So sometimes you do need

572
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,480
Speaker 3: to see things. You need to see things for yourself.

573
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,359
Speaker 3: And I encourage people to think for themselves and to

574
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 3: listen to people like you and to others and other debates, etc.

575
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 3: So thank you so much for joining us, man, We

576
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:35,600
Speaker 3: appreciate it.

577
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 6: Thank thanks so much for having them in.

578
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,200
Speaker 3: Let's get to the tariffs now, man, there has been

579
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 3: such a whirlwind around this. Let's put this up there

580
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 3: on the screen. Just actually very relevant something we've just

581
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:51,919
Speaker 3: discussed about process, about incompetence. This is basically a straight

582
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 3: out of the first term so quote. Trump advisors took

583
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 3: advantage of Navarro's absence to push for a tariff pause.

584
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 3: Peter Navarrow quote had been a fixture on the President's

585
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 3: side after Liberation Day. So the Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik

586
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 3: and Secretary Besson they wanted a ninety day pause on

587
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 3: the global tariff plan. So what they did is they

588
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,240
Speaker 3: basically created a situation where somebody else of the White

589
00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 3: House complex invited Navarro to a meeting. Now he invited

590
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 3: them to a meeting which was across the street. Now,

591
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 3: while Navarro is conveniently across the street and cannot argue

592
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:29,360
Speaker 3: against Secretary Bestin and Secretary Lutnik, Secretary Bestdon and Lutnik

593
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,760
Speaker 3: rush into the Oval Office quote to see Trump and

594
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:35,320
Speaker 3: propose a pause on these tariffs, without Navarro there to

595
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 3: argue her to push back. They know they had only

596
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 3: a very tight window. It was not on Trump's public schedule.

597
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 3: The two men convinced him of the strategy to announce

598
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 3: the pause and stayed with Trump until he tapped out

599
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:51,000
Speaker 3: his truth social post, which surprised Navarro, who happened to

600
00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 3: be in a meeting, and then immediately Secretary Beston walks

601
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 3: out of the West Wing in front of the cameras

602
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: to declare the policy.

603
00:26:59,040 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 11: Ryan.

604
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 3: So that is the level of care and attention the

605
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:05,239
Speaker 3: steward of the global economy it currently has. Over all

606
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: of our fates are our business here at breaking points,

607
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 3: and so much more.

608
00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 5: The most important thing here is obviously the fate of

609
00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 5: the global economy and all the people that of.

610
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 4: Course rely on it.

611
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 5: But underneath it there's this bit, this bubbling question of

612
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 5: insider trading.

613
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 4: This, in an interesting way, exonerates, from my.

614
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:27,040
Speaker 5: Perspective, the charges of insider trading, because in order for

615
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 5: you to insider trade, you have to have reliable information

616
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 5: from the inside that you can then trade off. Nobody,

617
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,359
Speaker 5: including the varrow, including Trump.

618
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 1: Well and the US Trade representative.

619
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 5: Including Besant, none of them knew that they would successfully

620
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 5: persuade Trump, like they had a plan. But you can't

621
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,439
Speaker 5: trade off just a plan. Insider trading is supposed to be,

622
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,719
Speaker 5: you know, for a fact X things. Well, so they

623
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 5: go in, that's just the three of them, and then

624
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 5: he taps it out on his phone.

625
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 4: Right there, I'll give you a encounter three thousand points up.

626
00:27:58,800 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 1: Here's my counter.

627
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 4: Let's set a lot.

628
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 3: So one of the reports from behind the scenes is

629
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 3: the secretary best and all week long, all he's doing

630
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 3: is taking calls from these Wall Street guns like you

631
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:08,600
Speaker 3: need to stop, you need to stop, you need to stop.

632
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,200
Speaker 3: Let's say that he tells them. He goes, listen, I'm

633
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 3: walking into the oval stone. Yeah, and I'm gonna try

634
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 3: and to change his mind. It's not a guarantee, right,

635
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 3: it's still a bet.

636
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, But these guys bets all the time. Right, a

637
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: tremendous amount upside.

638
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 4: It's a stronger bet.

639
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: It's a stronger bet.

640
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:21,680
Speaker 6: You know.

641
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,679
Speaker 3: It's a little bit of information like let's say, if

642
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 3: you can do more than you and I know here's

643
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 3: the thing, you know, I do a lot of reading

644
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,160
Speaker 3: about ways to beat the casino plot twists, a dozen

645
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 3: years of work. But the thing is is that if

646
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 3: you can even rule out let's say, one fifth of

647
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: the roulette board, that changes the odds for everything else. Right, Yeah, yeah,

648
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 3: you're not gonna win, but in a long, long run,

649
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 3: you'll way, in the long run, you will win.

650
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 6: So there you go.

651
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 3: So that's a just even just a little bit of

652
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 3: information about what might not happen or might might happen,

653
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,600
Speaker 3: is enough to make more of a structured bet which

654
00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 3: you might be able to take to the bet and

655
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 3: obviously worked out for fair point.

656
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 5: But like we said, the bigger point is we are

657
00:28:55,800 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 5: all living and dying by by this, and it does

658
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 5: not give you much confidence in the overasching strategy here,

659
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,239
Speaker 5: which we can get which we can get into more

660
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:12,960
Speaker 5: because the US is now dealing with the European Union,

661
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:19,200
Speaker 5: we can put this next element up on the screen. Here,

662
00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 5: we're seeing the US put into this extraordinarily difficult position

663
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 5: where we are going into these negotiations in a badly

664
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,440
Speaker 5: weakened place, the dollars crashing, our stockbar is crashing, the

665
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 5: bond market is crashing, and you're seeing travel drop in

666
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 5: a way that is utterly extraordinary. So it's partly it's

667
00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 5: the trade war that's going on. But I think primarily

668
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 5: I think so the trade war is creating a lot

669
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 5: of anger, But I think people don't make a lot

670
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 5: of their individual travel decisions based on their political thoughts

671
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 5: about the.

672
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 4: Leadership of a country.

673
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 5: People are nervous that they're going to wind up in

674
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 5: detention centers for some violation in their visa. I'm curious

675
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 5: how this lands on the right. On the left were like, a,

676
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 5: we we love foreign travels. It's good for the economy,

677
00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 5: and we we don't do much else, Like we are

678
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 5: a service economy and so travel.

679
00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 3: I'm not going to downplay it. I'm not going to

680
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 3: overstate it either. It's nine percent of US GDP.

681
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 1: That's a lot. There are rough.

682
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 4: Total yah.

683
00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, so if we look which is mass No, I'm

684
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:31,080
Speaker 3: not so again, I'm not going to downplay it.

685
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: It's also not in video. Okay, it's not the S

686
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 1: and P five hundred.

687
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 3: Now, if that's easy for me to say, and I'm

688
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 3: not talking to what I'm trying to think.

689
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:38,800
Speaker 1: Orlando.

690
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: If you own a hotel in Orlando, God bless you. Okay,

691
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 3: I feel bad for you. You know you just got

692
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 3: a massive hit if you own anything in upstate New

693
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: York or in Seattle, where a bunch of Canadians are

694
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 3: always traveling to. Apparently Canadians love Vegas. Vegas has taken

695
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: an absolute beating right now.

696
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: I have more ambivalent about that one.

697
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 3: But in terms of letting them take a hit, my

698
00:30:57,080 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 3: point is that there are a lot of people out

699
00:30:58,480 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: there rely on this rink.

700
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: I'm not going to play that at all.

701
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 3: At the same time, we are still talking about seventy

702
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 3: percent drop in travel, and you know that's not bad that.

703
00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 4: The bad numbers is just coming in zero.

704
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 5: That's that's just what we've been able to measure so far.

705
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 4: Like the direction of that arrow. It's like the Hamas Kara.

706
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: Look, I feel complicated about it in certain ways because

707
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 3: you know, this is the same GDP argument, right that

708
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 3: people make about foreign real estate. It's like, listen, you

709
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 3: have to, Oh, we're the world's capital destination. I'm like, yeah,

710
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 3: but that's bad for a lot of people who are here.

711
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:28,640
Speaker 3: One of the things I think that went most wrong

712
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 3: with America and it's global cities is that our cities,

713
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 3: when I say global, they really are global, as in,

714
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 3: they are the global playground for the world's rich in

715
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 3: the same way that Monaco or something is. Los Angeles

716
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 3: is not for America. Okay, it's for the richest people

717
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,120
Speaker 3: on earth to all gather. Same thing with New York

718
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: City Manhattan real estate. It's a joke. Like if you're

719
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 3: a rich Chinese or rich Russian or rich whatever you know,

720
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 3: from some tiny African country, you're the one billionaire from there.

721
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 3: You're hanging out in Manhattan. Everybody who lives or in

722
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,400
Speaker 3: any cities, they know that not only money laundering go

723
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 3: to Miami. What is it twenty six percent or whatever.

724
00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 3: The real estate there is. But I'm talking fun occupied

725
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 3: about real estate. But what I'm saying is that but

726
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: there is a downside to being yes. But what I'm

727
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 3: saying is that being the global destination for the world's elite. Yes,

728
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 3: it's good for GDP purposes, but you lose a lot

729
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 3: whenever that happens as well, because you basically become this

730
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 3: playground where we're like serving these like super rich I

731
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,719
Speaker 3: don't know, Guinea Bisawans like in Miami, and you're like, well,

732
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 3: what's going on here?

733
00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: Right right?

734
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 3: I'm just I want to give the caveat for why

735
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 3: I don't think that it's as chopped up necessarily as

736
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 3: its usually.

737
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I agree.

738
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 5: I just wish that the US had the kind of

739
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 5: political economy and the capacity to be able to say, Okay,

740
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 5: we're going to respond to this this Guinea Bissell oligarchs

741
00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 5: to wants to park his you know, twenty five million

742
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 5: dollars that.

743
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 6: He stole here.

744
00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 5: Well, you know it's going to cost you twenty percent

745
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 5: and we're twenty and we're talking about twenty fifty, way

746
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 5: more than let's negotiate for seventy five year period and

747
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 5: with that we're gonna we're gonna fund our school system. Instead,

748
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 5: we don't do any of that. We just completely sell

749
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 5: for nothing to the oligarchs. And if if that is

750
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 5: the system that we're going to have, then people are

751
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,160
Speaker 5: going to burn it to the ground, and rightfully so.

752
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 5: But then you're not then without replacing it with anything else.

753
00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, not a lot of disagreement, just giving a

754
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: little bit of a counter perspective. Per se, I, you

755
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: don't really want an economy, right that relies entirely on

756
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 3: foreigners coming over here and spending a bunch of money. Right,

757
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 3: all those ship they don't need, and then we don't

758
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 3: need all.

759
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 5: Those unoccupied rental properties that are or econominis or whatever

760
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 5: that are just money launtering and people stashing money. That

761
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 5: drives up the price of rent for everybody else there.

762
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: You go, So maybe it'll be cheaper in plattsburgher and May.

763
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 5: Everything is going to get cheaper in a lot of ways,

764
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 5: except for the problem that you're four to one. K

765
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 5: is going to crash. The tariffs are going to go

766
00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 5: the currency's currency is weaker. But the good thing about

767
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 5: a deeper session is that, yes, rents are going to

768
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 5: go now true.

769
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I remember talking about that about gas prices.

770
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 3: I was like, well, you know, gass could go down,

771
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,080
Speaker 3: but it will be because of demand nobody.

772
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:08,320
Speaker 4: That's actually really bad because nobody can afford it. Yeah, exactly.

773
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,840
Speaker 1: Now in terms of the trade, so one relief the

774
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:11,840
Speaker 1: market is looking.

775
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,879
Speaker 3: For is some trade deals They're like, give us trade deals,

776
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: give us trade deals, give us trade deals.

777
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:17,520
Speaker 1: Let's see some.

778
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 4: Progress, because they think that'll signal because that means.

779
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 1: To signal the end of the trade war.

780
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 3: It means a nine day pause will not actually going

781
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 3: to effect after ninety days. It'll mean that the China

782
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 3: trade war is actually going well, that there's negotiations and

783
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:30,720
Speaker 3: all of that happening. So everybody has been looking towards Japan.

784
00:34:30,880 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 3: And because Japan top you know three US ally G

785
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 3: seven economy, one of the world's developed slapped with a

786
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 3: twenty five percent tariff, Japan negotiated a trade agreement with

787
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 3: Trump in twenty nineteen. Trump notoriously respects them. He loves

788
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 3: Shinzo AaB thinks that he looked out for his country.

789
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 3: I love Japan as well, you know, as any watcher knows.

790
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 3: But what's interesting is that the Japanese this time around

791
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:59,880
Speaker 3: are signaling much less optimism around any sort of trade negotiation.

792
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 3: There's been a massive decline in trust on the Japanese

793
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 3: side for how these are going to go. And already

794
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 3: just this morning I was looking at the futures. Let's see,

795
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 3: they are down about one percent on the s and P.

796
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 3: Five hundred largely as a result of this negotiation. So

797
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: what we have here is a very interesting video flagged

798
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,400
Speaker 3: by our friend Arnau. This is the former Assistant Secretary

799
00:35:20,400 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 3: of Defense, Chas Freeman, who actually seems to have gotten

800
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 3: some inside information from the Japanese trade delegation.

801
00:35:27,600 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.

802
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 13: The White House claims that there are direct talks going

803
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 13: on somehow with the Chinese. I don't believe it. I

804
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 13: think what is happening is what I described earlier. The

805
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 13: Chinese are maintaining contact with US, routine contact. There is

806
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 13: no negotiation going on. The Japanese have just been in

807
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 13: Washington and their experience apparently was they went to talk

808
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 13: to the American leadership on this matter, and the American

809
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 13: leadership said what are you offering? And the Japanese said, well,

810
00:36:04,320 --> 00:36:06,960
Speaker 13: what is it that you want? And the Americans could

811
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 13: not explain what they wanted. This is a Kakamamy approach

812
00:36:11,560 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 13: to negotiation. And I think the Chinese, having observed the

813
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,759
Speaker 13: United States break virtually every agreement it has agreed to

814
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 13: in recent years, including the replacement for NAFTA with proposed

815
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 13: tariffs and on Canada and Mexico. You know, that was

816
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 13: negotiated by mister Trump in his first term, and yet

817
00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 13: he felt free to abandon it and repudiate it. What's

818
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,840
Speaker 13: the incentive to negotiate with the United States when the

819
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 13: United States has no stated objectives that make sense and

820
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 13: no record of compliance with its own agreements. So I

821
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 13: don't think there is. I think the Chinese have decided

822
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:56,600
Speaker 13: they will wait us out and see how Americans like

823
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 13: Walmart and Amazon denuative products.

824
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 3: That was a really interesting perspective, obviously, but you know

825
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:07,240
Speaker 3: it pairs with some of the reporting that's coming out now, Ryan,

826
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 3: this is extraordinary to come from a Japanese prime minister.

827
00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 3: Can we go ahead and put B five please up

828
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,880
Speaker 3: on the screen? So the Japanese Prime minister actually just

829
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,760
Speaker 3: spoke before Parliament Monday his time, so several hours ago

830
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: and said quote, if Japan concedes everything, we won't be

831
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:26,880
Speaker 3: able to secure our national interests, saying Japan will not

832
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: keep conceding to the United States in tariff talks. And

833
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:33,879
Speaker 3: clearly they are just deeply confused. They don't know what

834
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,640
Speaker 3: we want. My personal favorite is the demand from the

835
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 3: Trump administration of why don't you buy more American rice.

836
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:47,760
Speaker 3: Why we're trying to tell the Japanese to buy our rice. Whoa,

837
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 3: that's like telling the Chinese to buy tea from like North.

838
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 1: They're like, whoa, what hold on a second here, Yeah,

839
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,000
Speaker 1: we got it. We solved that problem about two thousand

840
00:37:57,040 --> 00:37:57,439
Speaker 1: years ago.

841
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,880
Speaker 5: And the other one he talked about was, you know,

842
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 5: Trump is very fixated on the lack of American cars

843
00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:08,480
Speaker 5: on the roads. Yes, in Japan, and as he talked about,

844
00:38:08,520 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 5: and you can ye you were, you're there recently and

845
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 5: tell us about your on the ground reporting. The parame

846
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 5: Minister is like, look, man, the car the cars have

847
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,319
Speaker 5: the steering wheel on the wrong side, like we drive

848
00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:23,919
Speaker 5: on the left side over here. So go ahead, try

849
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:27,879
Speaker 5: to sell your your cars. But you know, I don't

850
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 5: think a lot of people are going to buy them

851
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 5: because they're not.

852
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 3: They do manufacture them with a different steering they have

853
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 3: to England, but they don't have as big of a

854
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 3: production run on those cars. But I mean, look, this

855
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 3: is a secondary thing because.

856
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: They're bad cars like that. It's like, let's just all admit.

857
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 5: It, and we're lobbing them to like reduce their safety

858
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 5: standards so that our cars can compete.

859
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: It's like, how about we make better car?

860
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:51,919
Speaker 3: No?

861
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:55,080
Speaker 5: And also consumer consumer choice matters.

862
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: Yes.

863
00:38:56,040 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 5: By driving the entire world economy into a session in

864
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:05,400
Speaker 5: a tantrum style like Trump is doing to try to

865
00:39:05,480 --> 00:39:08,880
Speaker 5: pressure people to buy our products is going to backfire.

866
00:39:09,200 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 5: Even if you, let's say Japan is like, fine, we

867
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 5: will even subsidize your Fords to come into Japan.

868
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 1: Oh they shouldn't.

869
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:19,640
Speaker 5: Japanese people still have to make the decisions to buy

870
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 5: a Ford. Americans don't even want to be seen in

871
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 5: a Tesla right now. You think a Japanese consumer is

872
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 5: gonna want to be seen in a Chevy?

873
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: Dude? First of all, what is it?

874
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 3: I think ten percent of Tokyo residents even own a car,

875
00:39:31,760 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: right over ninety percent?

876
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 4: We're going to park that thing.

877
00:39:33,960 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 3: So second, then secondary like, they're obviously a better run.

878
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:40,800
Speaker 3: They're literally designed for them. People buy Toyotas in America. Okay,

879
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 3: So why would you win in Japan? Want to buy

880
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 3: a Ford or at Ford F one fifty, or let's

881
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 3: say even a smaller truck run from any of the

882
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 3: US manufacturers. You would be an idiot to buy that

883
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 3: over a Toyota high loucks. You literally would be an idiot,

884
00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 3: a complete moron. And that's if you're an American. So

885
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 3: now compare it to your in Japan get subsidized rate

886
00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:04,520
Speaker 3: and his demandant domestically produced and oh it's for your

887
00:40:04,560 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: own market.

888
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 1: By the way, I just looked it up. Japan produces

889
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of their own rice domestically. What are

890
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: we doing here? They only spend seven hundred million.

891
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 3: Dollars on rice. Fifty percent of that is already from

892
00:40:14,840 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 3: the United States.

893
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 1: Why who cares? They're basically self sufficient on rice.

894
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 4: They're an art it's been a solved problem. Yeah, they're

895
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 4: also they're also.

896
00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 5: An island, like if you're not. And also the current

897
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,319
Speaker 5: Prime minister's base is these farmers, so he's not going

898
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 5: to sell his farmers out.

899
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 6: But if you're.

900
00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 5: Telling an island country they need to like reduce the

901
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,840
Speaker 5: amount of food that they produce for themselves, what self

902
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 5: respecting island nation would do that?

903
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 11: Right?

904
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 4: Yeah, well they didn't make it.

905
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: I could tell I can talk about the amount of time.

906
00:40:44,719 --> 00:40:46,760
Speaker 3: It's just one of the dumbest things about the demand

907
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 3: for the Japanese. Like listening, we want to talk about

908
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: reciprocal tariffs, Fine, we want to talk about trade and

909
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 3: balanced deficit.

910
00:40:53,000 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 1: Fine.

911
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 3: Actually, by the way, the Japanese are the best ally

912
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,880
Speaker 3: to work with on this. Toyota manufactures half those cars

913
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 3: here in the United States.

914
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: Of America, so many of them are made.

915
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 3: They have a seated too many of these demands, and

916
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,319
Speaker 3: they still get slapped with a twenty five percent tariff. Now,

917
00:41:08,360 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 3: if we want more tax credits and or threats of teriffs,

918
00:41:11,600 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 3: I have no problem with that. If we go over

919
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 3: there and we say, hey, listen, you know x percentage

920
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 3: parts are still being manufactured in Japan. You guys are

921
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 3: keeping a lot of the gold for yourself, like in

922
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:22,279
Speaker 3: terms of the high value chain, which we don't blame you,

923
00:41:22,320 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 3: but we want to bring some of that over to

924
00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 3: make it more self sufficient. Absolutely nothing wrong with that,

925
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 3: and some carrot and stick approach with the tax credit.

926
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,919
Speaker 3: But from the Japanese, they both are feeling threatened, which

927
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 3: is at the worst time. Right we're in an alleged

928
00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:37,640
Speaker 3: trade war with China, So what would we want. We

929
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 3: want all the Asia Pacific to stand with us. Well,

930
00:41:39,680 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 3: the South Koreans and the Japanese are like, I'm I'm

931
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 3: not so sure about this, right, They release a joint statement.

932
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 3: The Japanese Prime minister openly trying to declare independence from

933
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 3: the United States here on a trade war in his parliament.

934
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 1: That's the worst possible.

935
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 3: Outcome again for G seven nation, one of our closest

936
00:41:54,400 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 3: allies manufacturing powerhouse, and one that we are deeply reliant

937
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 3: on for a core segment of our autos.

938
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 4: And real quickly, just to back back up Chas Freeman. Uh.

939
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 5: The EU's Trade chief Mario Stefkovich met with Commerce Secretary

940
00:42:09,480 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 5: Howard Latnik, Bloomberg and others report on this. Also met

941
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 5: with you know, I say, Trade Representative jameson Greer and

942
00:42:14,800 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 5: the reporting is this, it's just an incredible line.

943
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:17,480
Speaker 11: Uh.

944
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,360
Speaker 5: Stef Kovich left the meeting with little clarity on the

945
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 5: US stance and struggling to determine the American side's aims.

946
00:42:25,719 --> 00:42:28,440
Speaker 5: So they did the same thing as the Japanese. All Right,

947
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 5: Americans like cool, what what are you going to give us?

948
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:32,839
Speaker 5: And then they're like, well what do the Europeans are

949
00:42:32,880 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 5: like Okay, They're like, uh, because what Trump Trump wants

950
00:42:38,600 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 5: to you know, US manufacturing capacity to increase what is

951
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 5: what is?

952
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 11: Uh?

953
00:42:45,080 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 5: What did Japan and European Union have anything to do

954
00:42:47,120 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 5: with it, Like it's like, all right, go ahead, like

955
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 5: increase your manufacturing capacity, go for it.

956
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 4: We're not gonna We're not gonna stop you do it.

957
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:58,000
Speaker 3: The entire thing is preposterous, not only in its demands,

958
00:42:58,280 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 3: in its execution, and the that other countries have no

959
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:05,719
Speaker 3: idea what to do. And as I say, you can

960
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,680
Speaker 3: support tariffs and all this stuff in principle, and also

961
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 3: look at the way that this is being implemented and

962
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: say this is a total disaster. I am for decoupling

963
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,840
Speaker 3: with China that we would all recognize is going to

964
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:19,760
Speaker 3: have a lot of pain. So how do you offset

965
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 3: pain with government subsidy, tax credits, a plan confidence, that's

966
00:43:24,280 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 3: what the Chinese are doing, and allies and allied And

967
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 3: then this is exactly so what does Jijingping do whenever

968
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,959
Speaker 3: he faces a trade war? He pumps billions of dollars

969
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 3: in the economy, He lowers the interest rate. He makes

970
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 3: sure that Amazon and e commerce sites are supporting their

971
00:43:37,600 --> 00:43:39,920
Speaker 3: Chinese manufacturing base. To make sure that nobody in the

972
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 3: supply chain gets wiped out, from the small all the

973
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: way to the big manufacturers. You continue to supply and

974
00:43:45,320 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 3: make sure that you have an autonomous electric vehicle industry

975
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 3: that stands completely alone from the United States and the

976
00:43:50,480 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 3: Western markets. And then you go across the Asia Pacific

977
00:43:53,600 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 3: and you cultivate allies like Vietnam. That's everything he has done.

978
00:43:56,800 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 3: Look then at the United States. We have small e

979
00:43:59,320 --> 00:44:02,120
Speaker 3: commerce company. You know Ryan Peterson, my friend who works

980
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 3: at Flexport. We had him here on the show. People

981
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 3: will remember he predicts in ninety days mass bankruptcy at

982
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 3: a small AMA commerce level. They're dead dead at one

983
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 3: hundred and forty five percent. It's they're never coming back

984
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 3: from this. In fact, he even flagged that they're already

985
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 3: two companies who he knows they just gave up. They

986
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,719
Speaker 3: sold to China because they were reliant on the factories

987
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 3: there to produce their goods. They said, listen, guys, we

988
00:44:25,400 --> 00:44:28,319
Speaker 3: can't do business anymore. Your government is propping you up.

989
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 3: We'll just sell you our business, our leads and everything.

990
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 3: You can take over after it. They're happy they've got

991
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,880
Speaker 3: the cash and the balance sheet. Our people have nothing.

992
00:44:36,120 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 3: So that's the disastrous part of this.

993
00:44:38,239 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: The big guys, Walmart.

994
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 3: They'll be fine, okayh ish, Sure, they'll take a twenty

995
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 3: percent haircut on their stock. All of us will go

996
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 3: work for Walmart as a greeter or whatever.

997
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 1: They will survive.

998
00:44:48,239 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 3: I think that's the one thing we could say with assurance.

999
00:44:50,440 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: But many of the smaller products that go into a Walmart,

1000
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 3: you know, many of the people who are e commerce,

1001
00:44:55,600 --> 00:44:57,920
Speaker 3: you know folks or whatever, people will build big businesses.

1002
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 3: They have no runway now, no product. I talked previously

1003
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:05,360
Speaker 3: as a new expected parent watching these stroller prices, it

1004
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 3: hurts man, because you know what, Okay, yeah, I bought

1005
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 3: mine before all these terriff things. But if you go

1006
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,040
Speaker 3: on Facebook, Marketplace, the secondhand market and all that, the

1007
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 3: price there is already going to skyrocket. And people, you know,

1008
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 3: people feel a tremendous amount of anxiety about buying the

1009
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:22,520
Speaker 3: proper car, SI the proper stroll. Of course, who doesn't

1010
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:24,720
Speaker 3: want to protect their child and now they're getting charge

1011
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 3: for the privilege And that just is unconscionable to me.

1012
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 5: And the other thing that Chijiping is doing is targeted

1013
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:34,840
Speaker 5: supports for people who are getting hit by the policy changes.

1014
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 5: So if you are a small business or a medium

1015
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:41,760
Speaker 5: sized business that was reliant on exports to the United States,

1016
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:44,360
Speaker 5: he is helping you find like he's doing all the

1017
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,280
Speaker 5: things you said, helping you find in the mestic audience.

1018
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 5: His diplomats are working to find you consumers in Europe

1019
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 5: or Africa or Japan or whatever else. And in the meantime,

1020
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 5: he's offering financial support to you so you survive this

1021
00:45:57,760 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 5: difficult time.

1022
00:45:59,280 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 4: The United States is not doing that.

1023
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 5: All of these companies that are facing the short term pain,

1024
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 5: as Trump supporters call it, are not getting any support.

1025
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 5: And so when the long term gain is that's supposed

1026
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 5: to come rises, those people won't be around to reap that.

1027
00:46:19,760 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 5: It'll be the Chinese companies and others who at the

1028
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 5: Chinese companies and the oligarchs who are able to come in,

1029
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 5: you know, and buy, buy for peanuts and buy for

1030
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 5: scraps what's left of those companies, and then if there

1031
00:46:31,760 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 5: is any long term gain, it'll go to the It'll

1032
00:46:33,560 --> 00:46:34,399
Speaker 5: go to those, right.

1033
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 3: It's just one of the dumbest possible things that we

1034
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:40,120
Speaker 3: have seen this all play out. If they don't back

1035
00:46:40,160 --> 00:46:42,960
Speaker 3: down soon, the damage is going to be immense. The

1036
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:45,960
Speaker 3: price increases are already here. You can see it as

1037
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,520
Speaker 3: the inventory starts to lead. And the next time you

1038
00:46:48,560 --> 00:46:51,280
Speaker 3: want to go buy consumer electronics, iPhone and all that stuff.

1039
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 3: Remember Trump did give a pause, but he said that

1040
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 3: there is a separate two thirty two sections two thirty

1041
00:46:56,560 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 3: two style tariff coming on tariffs specifically for consumer electronic goods.

1042
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:04,359
Speaker 3: And Vidia just got slapped with that export control. And

1043
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 3: by the way, you know, even on this front, just

1044
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,480
Speaker 3: last Tangent and the CEO of Nvidia, the moment that

1045
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 3: we announced our tarra or export license on his chips

1046
00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 3: to China.

1047
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:16,200
Speaker 1: Guess where he was China.

1048
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 3: He flew to China to assure them that we will

1049
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 3: always do business in China. He said, quote, we have

1050
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 3: done business in China for thirty years and we have

1051
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:28,720
Speaker 3: no plans to stop. Okay, that's that's a problem because

1052
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,399
Speaker 3: we can see here he has no confidence that. First

1053
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 3: of all, he doesn't know whether these tariffs are gonna

1054
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 3: last or not. He has no idea. But second he

1055
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 3: can see where his butter is. You know, where what

1056
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 3: is his bread is buttered? Yes, fifty percent or some

1057
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,959
Speaker 3: revenue is over there, and he's not getting any help

1058
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 3: from the United States of America. I can guarantee you

1059
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,200
Speaker 3: they probably threw everything in the book.

1060
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:49,919
Speaker 1: At Jensen Wong.

1061
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 3: And look, I mean, I think that's deeply unpatriotic and

1062
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 3: all that.

1063
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 1: But I'm a realist. It's a capitalist every what are

1064
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 1: you going to do our like?

1065
00:47:57,120 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 5: Our companies are called multinational corporations for a reason. Yeah,

1066
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,120
Speaker 5: they are not American corporations, and we should stop believing

1067
00:48:03,200 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 5: that they are.

1068
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:09,560
Speaker 3: Right, Let's turn down to Pete Hegseth, Man, there is

1069
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 3: a full scale meltdown happening at the Pentagon. It is

1070
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:16,280
Speaker 3: just unbelievable. Let's go and put see one up there

1071
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:19,080
Speaker 3: on the screen. This is just the latest quote Hegseth

1072
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 3: to have shared attack details in his second second signal chat.

1073
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 3: The Defense Secretary sent sensitive information about strikes and YEM

1074
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 3: into an encrypted group chat that included his wife and brother.

1075
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,840
Speaker 3: His brother, to be fair, actually works for the Pentagon,

1076
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 3: but his wife, yeah, not so much. It appears to

1077
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,919
Speaker 3: have been a it appears to have been a scheduling

1078
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,840
Speaker 3: like area, So there's not exactly it's not exactly clear

1079
00:48:40,920 --> 00:48:42,879
Speaker 3: why in the scheduling group chat that he was also

1080
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:45,320
Speaker 3: sharing it attack details.

1081
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:49,000
Speaker 1: But beyond the signal thing, because we've all covered that

1082
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:49,720
Speaker 1: at this point.

1083
00:48:49,960 --> 00:48:54,440
Speaker 5: Beyond the signal, this was his personal phone, which we

1084
00:48:54,480 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 5: already knew, which apparently the other one was on his

1085
00:48:56,640 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 5: regular his work phone.

1086
00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:00,319
Speaker 1: Wait what thought it was his personal phone first?

1087
00:49:00,320 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 4: This one is is on his personal phone.

1088
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:04,520
Speaker 1: Okay, I thought, maybe it's confirmed this time.

1089
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:06,440
Speaker 5: This is the person His wife probably does not have

1090
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 5: her phone on lockdown mode either. Right there, you go,

1091
00:49:08,680 --> 00:49:12,480
Speaker 5: that's a good point. His wife's phone must be hacked.

1092
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 5: There's no like because she's known, you'd be an idiot.

1093
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:16,839
Speaker 5: Not too right, because she's known to go to all

1094
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 5: these events and travel with him. So if you're any

1095
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,359
Speaker 5: spy agency with Pegasus, which is like all the big ones, now,

1096
00:49:22,680 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 5: like you've hacked her phone, you were in there.

1097
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 1: Yeah that's right.

1098
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, well all right, so they possibly had access to that,

1099
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 3: you know. But beyond this is the reason that's coming

1100
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 3: out right now. By the way, according to the Pentagons

1101
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:39,480
Speaker 3: would admission they're like former disgruntled employees. The reason why

1102
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 3: all these leaks are happening is because of the insane

1103
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 3: purge that is happening right now over at the Pentagon.

1104
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 3: So not only are as Pete hexet here back in

1105
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 3: the spotlight. He's going to have to answer for this

1106
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 3: before Congress investigations, et cetera. But already the Trump administration

1107
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 3: has set the standard that no, there was no classified

1108
00:49:58,200 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 3: informations cent here.

1109
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: Bullshit obviously.

1110
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: And number two, we're not going to hold anybody accountable

1111
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 3: for it, including Mike Waltz, the guy who literally is

1112
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 3: responsible for munch of this and for any op set

1113
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:12,880
Speaker 3: concerns or whatever. But at the same time, they're firing

1114
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 3: a bunch of people who clearly knew about some of

1115
00:50:15,600 --> 00:50:18,279
Speaker 3: this stuff and are now out for revenge. They're out

1116
00:50:18,280 --> 00:50:20,759
Speaker 3: for blood, and we can see out of some of

1117
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 3: that right now, and there's deep policy implications.

1118
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 1: Let's put C two please up on the screen.

1119
00:50:25,719 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 3: This is a statement from three former Pentagon officials who

1120
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 3: were fired and unceremoniously marched out of the building. One

1121
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 3: of them former Senior Advisor Daan Caldwell. We've covered him

1122
00:50:37,120 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 3: on the show before. He's an America First appointee, very

1123
00:50:40,360 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 3: against war with Iran loyal sent out of the body,

1124
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 3: loyal ally for employee of HEGSATHT for over a decade.

1125
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 3: You've got his former deputy chief of staff, Darren Selnick

1126
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:52,959
Speaker 3: and Colin Carroll, who is the Deputy Defense Secretary's former

1127
00:50:53,040 --> 00:50:55,720
Speaker 3: chief of staff as well. All said in a joint

1128
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 3: statement that they had quote not been told what exactly

1129
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 3: we were in investigated for, if there is still an

1130
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 3: on going investigation, or if there was even a real

1131
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 3: investigation of leaks to begin with.

1132
00:51:07,920 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 1: You know, remember in the original leaks around this, they

1133
00:51:11,160 --> 00:51:13,040
Speaker 1: we were told that this was a result of a

1134
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 1: leak investigation that involved.

1135
00:51:14,680 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 3: Polygraphs, and I was like, oh, man, that's like very serious. Well,

1136
00:51:17,320 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 3: actually it turns out none of them have been polygraphed.

1137
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:23,600
Speaker 3: It was a complete like fake investigation from the first place.

1138
00:51:23,840 --> 00:51:26,720
Speaker 3: Where Pete Hegsat stands in all of this is totally unclear.

1139
00:51:27,000 --> 00:51:29,520
Speaker 3: It's like, are you running your own department? These are

1140
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,560
Speaker 3: guys not only loyal to you, but are much more

1141
00:51:32,640 --> 00:51:35,359
Speaker 3: at least from what I know, are very against war

1142
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 3: with Iran some of the more like bad elements of

1143
00:51:38,120 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 3: the Trump administration's foreign policy, and for them to be fired. Meanwhile,

1144
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 3: they're protecting Mike Waltz and many of these other people

1145
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 3: obviously are very pro war. It's very troubling Ryan. So

1146
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 3: he's got former disgruntled staff on his hands. I mean,

1147
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:53,480
Speaker 3: they're blaming the leaks on them. I don't know if

1148
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:56,239
Speaker 3: it's true or not. It's possible, but I think more

1149
00:51:56,280 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 3: important is that when these people are not in the

1150
00:51:58,480 --> 00:51:59,920
Speaker 3: building with Hegsath around.

1151
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 1: Look, he's a sponge, let's be honest, right he whatever

1152
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 1: is around him.

1153
00:52:04,120 --> 00:52:07,160
Speaker 3: Well, if the only people that are left are the

1154
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 3: pro war with Iran goons, not so good. He was

1155
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 3: one of the only three people in the Oval to

1156
00:52:11,719 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 3: speak out against an attack on Iran that the Israelis

1157
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:14,440
Speaker 3: wanted to.

1158
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:16,960
Speaker 5: Say, right, and you see a lot of kind of

1159
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:20,560
Speaker 5: Trump supporting bots responding to this by saying, Hey, Heggas

1160
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:23,480
Speaker 5: is getting rid of the deep state, right, bro, hexts

1161
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 5: brought these people in state. These are not people who

1162
00:52:26,719 --> 00:52:29,840
Speaker 5: have been there before, hegseets. And now he's cleaning house. Yes,

1163
00:52:30,000 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 5: he built the house and then burn it and then

1164
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 5: burn it down. Immediately you put up this next element

1165
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,000
Speaker 5: on the screen speaking of people he brought in. This

1166
00:52:39,080 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 5: is John Oillyacht, who was a the top spokesperson for

1167
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:48,280
Speaker 5: Pete Hegset yesterday published an op ed in Politico absolutely

1168
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 5: ripping the Pentagon to shreds, saying that the thing is

1169
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 5: in complete meltdown. One of the things he goes after.

1170
00:52:56,360 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 5: The new kind of spokesperson department for Or was Hags's

1171
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 5: first response to the signal chat. He said, you know,

1172
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,120
Speaker 5: Olliad says, the thing you do is you get all

1173
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:09,200
Speaker 5: the bad news out first.

1174
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 6: Yes.

1175
00:53:09,880 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 5: Instead, they tried to play semantic games with whether or

1176
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 5: not these were war plans or attack plans, which then

1177
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:22,040
Speaker 5: prompted Jeffrey Goldberg to release all the attack plans and say, okay,

1178
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,440
Speaker 5: call them whatever you want. Here they are. From Olliot's perspective,

1179
00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:27,879
Speaker 5: it's like, dude, what are you doing? Like one oh

1180
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:31,680
Speaker 5: one pr is to like seane Mike Waltz did that,

1181
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 5: we won't let it happen again. Instead, he turned it

1182
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 5: into a multi week story that then focused on him

1183
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:45,480
Speaker 5: rather than Mike Waltz. Olliocht, interestingly, in this piece says

1184
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:48,279
Speaker 5: outright that he doesn't think that these guys that were

1185
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 5: fired for leaking were actually leaking, and that some of

1186
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:56,000
Speaker 5: them were told, according to Ouliot, that the investigation was

1187
00:53:56,040 --> 00:53:59,719
Speaker 5: about to wrap up and was going to exonerate them,

1188
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 5: and yet they were marched out anyway. Now we also

1189
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:06,359
Speaker 5: know that Joe Casper, who is Pete hex That's chief

1190
00:54:06,400 --> 00:54:10,000
Speaker 5: of staff, is the one who was assigned to lead

1191
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 5: the league investigation.

1192
00:54:11,680 --> 00:54:13,359
Speaker 4: Now he claims that.

1193
00:54:13,320 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 5: He delegated this to other people that's fine. That's what

1194
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 5: chiefs of staff do. They delegate those. But he himself

1195
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 5: has now been moved out of his job. According to Politico,

1196
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 5: there's some dispute. There's some dispute about that, which is insane, Like, okay,

1197
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:32,320
Speaker 5: wait a minute, are you the chief staff?

1198
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 4: You're not chief staff.

1199
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 3: The whole thing is preposterous, and we are watching these

1200
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:39,799
Speaker 3: people now squabble in public, John Oliot, as you said,

1201
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 3: the former spokesperson. They're like, oh, he was invited to

1202
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 3: be fired or whatever. It's like, well, he was employed

1203
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:46,439
Speaker 3: there for at least you hired him. And not only

1204
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:48,160
Speaker 3: did you hire him, you've actually been working for the

1205
00:54:48,160 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 3: Trump administration of the campaign now for like some seven years.

1206
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,240
Speaker 3: So you can't exactly say that this is not somebody,

1207
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:55,239
Speaker 3: this is never knew the guy, never seen the guy.

1208
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:55,920
Speaker 1: Yeah exactly, And.

1209
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:58,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'm still a Hexth friend, right.

1210
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:00,400
Speaker 1: Crazy within all of this.

1211
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,600
Speaker 3: Let's put the next one up on the screen. Is

1212
00:55:02,600 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 3: you can see here how the entire like inner circle

1213
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 3: around Pete Hexath is now at war with one another.

1214
00:55:09,320 --> 00:55:11,560
Speaker 3: And then all of the people who it seems were

1215
00:55:11,560 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 3: most loyal to him somehow have been fired. Now I

1216
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 3: have a very difficult time seeing how you can be

1217
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 3: fired marched out of the building all the people who

1218
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:23,279
Speaker 3: are allegedly so loyal to you without you having some

1219
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 3: say over it. I mean, can you really be fired

1220
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,840
Speaker 3: of the Department of Defense without the say so of

1221
00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,040
Speaker 3: the you know, the Secretary of Defense.

1222
00:55:30,320 --> 00:55:31,160
Speaker 1: The person who's.

1223
00:55:30,920 --> 00:55:33,279
Speaker 3: Running must be read in on this, right, Yeah, So

1224
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 3: either you're read in or you're not read in.

1225
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:37,280
Speaker 1: That's even scary. That means if the building is running

1226
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 1: without you, how.

1227
00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 3: Does that work? Is it some deep state operation? That's

1228
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:42,840
Speaker 3: what some people seem to be claiming. I just have

1229
00:55:43,040 --> 00:55:45,239
Speaker 3: no clue. I just know this is a cluster, and

1230
00:55:45,280 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 3: this is not how you run the largest office building

1231
00:55:47,520 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 3: in the entire world, right and literally the world's pre

1232
00:55:51,520 --> 00:55:55,319
Speaker 3: eminent superpowers military. It's not even just about competence. Like

1233
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:59,120
Speaker 3: I said, the policy implications of this are crazy important

1234
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:02,399
Speaker 3: because people around him had views, they had strong views,

1235
00:56:02,400 --> 00:56:04,680
Speaker 3: they'd been around him, they had trust, and in their

1236
00:56:04,719 --> 00:56:07,719
Speaker 3: trust they were able to advocate four of you, which

1237
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,840
Speaker 3: is never held at the highest levels of the American government.

1238
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 3: It was one of the hopes I had for this administration.

1239
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 1: For this government.

1240
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 3: So then to watch them get unceremoniously forced out and

1241
00:56:17,760 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 3: then similarly to see Mike Wallas and the idiots around

1242
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:22,840
Speaker 3: him not only to be elevated, but to be entrenched

1243
00:56:22,880 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 3: in power at a critical decision time about war with Iran.

1244
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:28,319
Speaker 1: Very scary RN and.

1245
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:32,000
Speaker 5: What's unfortunate for the quote unquote America first side of

1246
00:56:32,040 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 5: the foreign policy argument is that Hegseeth claimed to be

1247
00:56:36,719 --> 00:56:39,560
Speaker 5: and was kind of sold as somebody who had been

1248
00:56:39,600 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 5: on the kind of warhawk side of foreign policy, supported

1249
00:56:45,080 --> 00:56:47,520
Speaker 5: the Iraq war, et cetera. But you know, through his

1250
00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 5: through his lived experience as the left would call it,

1251
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 5: and you know, through his camaraderie with veterans and seeing

1252
00:56:55,840 --> 00:56:59,560
Speaker 5: the absolute failure of American foreign policy to achieve the

1253
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 5: outcome that that that the young men and women were

1254
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,320
Speaker 5: sent to achieve, many of them dying to achieves and

1255
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:08,480
Speaker 5: then seeing it like just all turned to ashes right

1256
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:11,439
Speaker 5: in their mouth, that he turned into an America first guy,

1257
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 5: if that's if that's true, he has he has not

1258
00:57:16,680 --> 00:57:18,600
Speaker 5: stood up to that. There's so much pressure kind of

1259
00:57:18,600 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 5: in the Pentagon and in a war machine to become

1260
00:57:22,320 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 5: to push back to that warhawks side. He doesn't seem

1261
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:30,040
Speaker 5: like he's been able to withstand that pressure and instead

1262
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 5: has pushed aside all of the people that would help

1263
00:57:33,360 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 5: him stand up to that.

1264
00:57:34,760 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 4: One person I talked to who.

1265
00:57:36,960 --> 00:57:39,920
Speaker 5: Knows all of these people, including hag Seth, said that

1266
00:57:39,960 --> 00:57:43,600
Speaker 5: it's a question of character that that heg Seth has

1267
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 5: betrayed everybody who's ever been close to him in his life.

1268
00:57:46,800 --> 00:57:48,720
Speaker 5: And you can you can run, you can run through

1269
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 5: his life, ask his mother. Actually, well, I'm not going

1270
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:55,040
Speaker 5: to go there, but now it matters because this matters

1271
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:56,880
Speaker 5: to policy. And so now he has betrayed all of

1272
00:57:56,920 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 5: those people who are professionally and personally close to him,

1273
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 5: that he served with, that he worked in, concerned veterans

1274
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 5: of America with UH, and is sycophantically siding with the

1275
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:12,919
Speaker 5: with the more like bloodthirsty generals and others who are

1276
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 5: pushing him to stop stop saying those stop, don't get

1277
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:18,439
Speaker 5: in the way of this, like let's let's let's let's

1278
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 5: bomb these people and just see what happens. And the

1279
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 5: other knock on him besides the personal stuff, was that

1280
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 5: you've never run a large organization before, and now you're

1281
00:58:30,280 --> 00:58:33,440
Speaker 5: being asked to run the largest organization in the history

1282
00:58:33,440 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 5: of the world.

1283
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:38,600
Speaker 4: Are you going to be up for that. We now

1284
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:42,480
Speaker 4: have the answer, no, you're not up for it now.

1285
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 5: On the one hand, as somebody who doesn't want the

1286
00:58:46,000 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 5: Defense Department to accomplish its subjectives, I support it being okay,

1287
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:55,040
Speaker 5: but I don't want it to be a flailing Exactly

1288
00:58:55,080 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 5: what happens is there's a limit to that becomes a

1289
00:58:57,720 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 5: power vacuum.

1290
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:02,200
Speaker 3: The building will just do whatever the White House or

1291
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,800
Speaker 3: them tell you. A week Pentagon is actually very bad, yeah,

1292
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 3: because it means that the White House is not only

1293
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 3: totally in control, but also that they like, you need

1294
00:59:10,240 --> 00:59:12,840
Speaker 3: war planners, you need advisors, you need people to game

1295
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 3: all of this stuff out. And if you have a

1296
00:59:15,120 --> 00:59:17,520
Speaker 3: vacuum there at the top, first of all, you're just

1297
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:19,120
Speaker 3: going to leave it to the career staff, who you know,

1298
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 3: we should trust the least. But then also you're going

1299
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 3: to leave it to the vacuum of the neocons who

1300
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:26,120
Speaker 3: are running the national.

1301
00:59:25,880 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 5: Security And it often is throughout history the men and

1302
00:59:29,840 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 5: women who've been through war and are now at the

1303
00:59:32,040 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 5: top echelons of the military, both in the United States

1304
00:59:34,600 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 5: and other militaries, who paradoxically are the ones in the

1305
00:59:38,880 --> 00:59:41,920
Speaker 5: room who are saying this might not be a good idea.

1306
00:59:41,960 --> 00:59:43,320
Speaker 1: Oh absolutely yeah, I'm.

1307
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:43,960
Speaker 4: What Sherman said.

1308
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 5: Nobody who what do you say, Nobody who's been to war,

1309
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:48,160
Speaker 5: you know, could think it's anything other than hell.

1310
00:59:48,200 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 4: It was something war as hell.

1311
00:59:49,680 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 5: And anybody who you know who says otherwise hasn't been

1312
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 5: involved in it. And they have the credibility to then

1313
00:59:55,840 --> 00:59:59,000
Speaker 5: put the brakes on the chickenhawk neo cons who are

1314
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,680
Speaker 5: who are just ready to just you know, launch tomahawks

1315
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 5: at for for whatever reason they can think of the

1316
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 5: best the best time to attack Ron's yesterday, second best

1317
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:11,600
Speaker 5: would be today. If not, if not that, let's plan

1318
01:00:11,640 --> 01:00:12,600
Speaker 5: for tomorrow.

1319
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:12,919
Speaker 6: Uh.

1320
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:18,160
Speaker 5: And so without a without a Pentagon, without any steady leadership,

1321
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:19,920
Speaker 5: you write, you could create a vacuum.

1322
01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 4: That's people like that creep in