1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,280 Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also. All right here we 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 2: all probes growing out shall spect. I'm saying it to 4 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,319 Speaker 2: cash to start, That's all we see. 5 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: Most gamble is when they go to gamble, they go 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: to win. 7 00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 3: That's incredible. 8 00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. 9 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabah if you. 10 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 4: Want to fall, and we are under way. 11 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:35,000 Speaker 3: What's up? 12 00:00:35,040 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 2: Everybody? 13 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:39,200 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by a fan 14 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 1: Who I am your host, Chris raybund Oh, the Action Network, 15 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:46,279 Speaker 1: And this is our season long NFL Player Props episode 16 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: for twenty twenty three. And nobody better to help me 17 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 1: break down our top props for twenty twenty three than 18 00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: the odds maker Sean Kerner. Always killing it in the 19 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: season long Fantasy accuracy, always kid out the season long props. 20 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 2: So Sean, I know you're excited for this one. 21 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 4: Oh yeah, this is always one of my favorite pods 22 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:12,280 Speaker 4: that we do. If you came here for overs, you've 23 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 4: come to the wrong place. But if you've come here 24 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 4: for winners, you've come to the right place. 25 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:18,759 Speaker 2: Yeah, these are you know, spoiler alert. 26 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 1: We're going to a ton of unders on these and 27 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: that's just because you know, these season long props they're 28 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,280 Speaker 1: kind of going you know, they're not the factory and 29 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: miss games to a certain extent. But you know, when 30 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:31,840 Speaker 1: you have the edge of you know, the number is 31 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 1: off combined with the you know, you think a guy 32 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:35,760 Speaker 1: could miss some more games, these unders are going to 33 00:01:35,840 --> 00:01:38,479 Speaker 1: hit so much more. So that's kind of our general philosophy. 34 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: Be sure to follow us any app shaws at the 35 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: Underscore odds maker. 36 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 2: I'm at Chris Raybond. 37 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: We'll put off we'll have more than just these obviously 38 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: lines move, so we'll try to give you a number, 39 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:50,920 Speaker 1: you know, the women of which we would bet it 40 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: down to. 41 00:01:51,320 --> 00:01:52,440 Speaker 2: We'll give five each. 42 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,240 Speaker 1: So you have ten season long our ten favorite season 43 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: long props heading into twenty twenty three. 44 00:01:57,000 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: Sean starts off. 45 00:01:59,240 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, So I'm gonna start us off with Rashad White 46 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 4: under seven hundred and a half rushing yards. And you know, 47 00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 4: you know I was talking about we go with unders 48 00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 4: when it comes to these things, and I looked at 49 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 4: player props from last year and I noticed, you know, 50 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 4: most rushing yard props for running backs went under. In fact, 51 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 4: if you just blind bet unders for everybody, you would 52 00:02:19,720 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 4: have hit around sixty percent of your bets. But if 53 00:02:22,320 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 4: you focus specifically on running backs who didn't have say, 54 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,680 Speaker 4: guaranteed workhorse role like you know, like a Nick Chubb, 55 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 4: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, and you went for like backs 56 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 4: that could devolve into more of a committee. The underwent 57 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 4: ten and two on those. So Rashad White is the 58 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:40,880 Speaker 4: exact type of back where that role could apply here. 59 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 4: You know, he's a lot to be the Bucks workhorse 60 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:46,079 Speaker 4: back for week one, but beyond that, anything can still happen. 61 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 4: You know, White struggled as a runner in his rookie 62 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 4: season last year. Out of fifty eight qualified backs, he 63 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 4: ranked the following in these key stats out of fifty 64 00:02:56,639 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 4: eight qualified backs again, avoided tackle rate fiftieth, explosive run 65 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 4: rate fifty third, yards after contact per rush fifty six. 66 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:07,560 Speaker 4: You know, and the Bucks will probably have one of 67 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 4: the worst offensive lines this season. They should be in 68 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 4: more trailing game scripts. I could see White struggling to 69 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: pick up yards again on the ground this year. His 70 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 4: best skill set has always been as a pass catcher, 71 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 4: so he led Arizona State and receiving yards in his 72 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:22,640 Speaker 4: final two seasons there. 73 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:24,679 Speaker 3: So I bet they lean on him that way. 74 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 4: And we see like Keyshawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds and Sewn Tucker. 75 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 4: Those guys sort of eat into his early down roll 76 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 4: at some point. So there's enough red flags around White 77 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 4: where this market specifically, I love, and I think his 78 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:39,760 Speaker 4: media should be just much much lower. So I'd probably 79 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 4: bet this down to six fifty, maybe six hundred, But 80 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 4: I just like the value we're getting right here at 81 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 4: seven hundred and a half rushing yards. 82 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think you make a good point when 83 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: you talk about some of his underlying metrics, specifically, you know, 84 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:57,120 Speaker 1: after contact, really not showing much of an ability to 85 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 1: create extra yards because as you mentioned that line, I mean, 86 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: we just saw Jensen. He's gonna be at probably praise 87 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:06,480 Speaker 1: his last snap in the NFL. Unfortunately, you have a 88 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:11,640 Speaker 1: rookie at right guard, filer at left guard. Really, you know, 89 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: he turned thirty and then kind of fell off a cliff. 90 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: He was not not as good as he wasn't in 91 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 1: the past years, and you have worst making the move 92 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:19,599 Speaker 1: from right to left. 93 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 2: I mean, every I think Gadecki has been really bad. 94 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: You know, maybe he can you know, going back to 95 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: his natural position, but you have three different guys that 96 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: are changing positions on the line, and yeah, it could 97 00:04:30,720 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: really and there's not really as much depth, So yeah, 98 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 1: this that line could be a problem even if he 99 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: does kind of hold on to that role all year long. 100 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: Like this is not I don't think it gonna be 101 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: a great rushing offense in Tampa Bay. All right, for 102 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: my first one, kind of a similar situation, I'm gonna 103 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: go Bryan Robinson Junior under seven hundred and fifty and 104 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,479 Speaker 1: a half rushing yards. This is an early down back 105 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,200 Speaker 1: on a projected last place team with one of the 106 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,080 Speaker 1: lowest win totals in the league. You have a new 107 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 1: regime in terms the offensive coordinator with the enemy coming over. 108 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: He's never coordinated in an offense that's been higher than 109 00:05:05,320 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: twentieth in. 110 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 2: Rush attempts for the season. 111 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: And Brian Robinson, similar to White, just really didn't show 112 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: much of an ability to create after you know, after 113 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: contact he was forty eighth in yards after contact, he 114 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,040 Speaker 1: was fiftieth and breakaway percentage, which is your percentage of 115 00:05:22,120 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: runs where it's fifteen yards and more, and his yards 116 00:05:25,880 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: for carry average was just three point nine. So this 117 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,360 Speaker 1: Washington offensive line still projects to be one of the 118 00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:35,200 Speaker 1: weaker units in the league. PFF has him twenty seventh 119 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 1: heading into the year, So just a lot of red 120 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: flags here. And then you still have Antonio Gibson challenging, 121 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: and you might have Chris Rodriguez at some point challenging 122 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: for work as well, So and then that's an addition 123 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 1: to just you know, the normal injuries that you would 124 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: expect from a running back. So yeah, Brian Robinson, I 125 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 1: think this is too. I would go down to anything 126 00:05:54,960 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: seven hundred or above. I would bet the under. 127 00:05:58,480 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, this is another good one. 128 00:05:59,800 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 4: He fits the profile of the backs that went under 129 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 4: ten and two last year. And like you said, his 130 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 4: backup or the guy they drafted Chris Rodriguez, is very 131 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 4: similar and apparently that's who, like Eric the enemy wanted 132 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 4: their new offensive coordinators, so they let him sort of 133 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 4: make that pick. So that's another bad sign for Brian Robinson. 134 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 4: And like you said, his efficiency metrics were not great. 135 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 4: This is a very you know, tough market for him 136 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 4: to clear. And yeah, his medium should be I would 137 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 4: say like six fifty something out low. 138 00:06:27,640 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 3: But yeah, I love the value we're getting here. 139 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,159 Speaker 1: And it's interesting, just on the topic of running backs 140 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: before we move on. So it's interesting that you said 141 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 1: a lot of the like running backs, you know, outside 142 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,240 Speaker 1: of the top you know, maybe guys with the you know, 143 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,359 Speaker 1: locked in roles went under last season because I was 144 00:06:44,400 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: looking at and that's an interesting edge. 145 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:48,479 Speaker 2: That you know, we might have in fantasy as well. 146 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 1: Is that a lot of the running backs in the 147 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: RB one tier, like the top twelve that were drafted 148 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:56,159 Speaker 1: in ADP last year, they only missed an average of 149 00:06:56,200 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: one point three games. That is usually triple that, especially 150 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 1: in a seventeen game season. So this year, I think 151 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: you could see running backs across the board missing more. 152 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 1: So you know these guys, but just in general, I 153 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: think running backs are gonna be a good under bet 154 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,160 Speaker 1: and there might be some hidden value in projections because 155 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: running backs didn't miss as many games as usual last year, 156 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 1: and I think you could see that come back now 157 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: hurt and you had a really good running year in 158 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: general for the NFL. So we just look at the 159 00:07:24,640 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: league averages. The running rushing was up, rushing touchdowns, rushing 160 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 1: yardage was up, and passing numbers were down. So there's 161 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: a lot of kind of hidden hidden value, I think, 162 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:36,640 Speaker 1: and going under on a lot. 163 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 4: Of Yeah, there's also just so many outs when it 164 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 4: comes to running backs. I think cam Akers last year 165 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,000 Speaker 4: is the perfect use case. I think we were both 166 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:46,720 Speaker 4: on his under Yeah, and he had a phenomenal season 167 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 4: right like the last six games, he was what the 168 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 4: RB two in fantasy, But he didn't even come close 169 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 4: to this brought because you know, he got bench they 170 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 4: had more of a committee early in the season, and 171 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 4: then they were looking to trade him, so he had 172 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 4: out a couple of games. I think he might have 173 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 4: missed the game or two due to injury. But when 174 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 4: he was active and like the workhorse backs, he did good. 175 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 4: But again, there was just so many other things going 176 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 4: on outside just his play that contribute the under hitting. 177 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 4: And that's that's kind of what goes into these props again, 178 00:08:16,120 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 4: like a Christian McCaffrey, Derrek, Henry, Nick Chubb, like they're 179 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 4: gonna have a work course role no matter what all 180 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,760 Speaker 4: season long. We're not going to see any Shenanigans. But 181 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 4: these other backs, the Brian Robinsons, Rashad Whites of the world, like, 182 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 4: there is so many different outs for them to go under. 183 00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 4: That's why they hit at such a high rate. 184 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, and especially because these backs, aren't you know, the best, 185 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 1: you know, top of the linebacks in the league. You 186 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 1: also have like another out could just be they trade 187 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: for a guy who you know comes in or something 188 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 1: like that. So it's yeah, there's just so many reasons 189 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:47,280 Speaker 1: why why these understand to hit more? 190 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 2: All right, where are you going with your second prop? 191 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 4: I'm going with Isaiah Hodgens under five hundred and a 192 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,319 Speaker 4: half receiving yards. Now, he had a phenomenal year last year. 193 00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,199 Speaker 4: You know, after spending the first four weeks on the 194 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 4: practice squad, didn't do really much of anything when he 195 00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 4: was on the Bills his first two seasons. You know, 196 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 4: he turned into the one of the Giants' top receivers, 197 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 4: if not their top receiver in the second half of 198 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,280 Speaker 4: last season. And it was a combination of you know, 199 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:15,160 Speaker 4: the Giants really not having anyone left and Hodgens is 200 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 4: playing really well. However, this year he has much more competition. 201 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 4: You know, they added the likes of Paris Campbell, Jalen 202 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 4: Hyatt in the draft. You know, Sterling Shepherd and Wanda 203 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 4: Robinson will probably see playing time win they're healthy. But 204 00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,439 Speaker 4: more importantly, this addition of Darren Waller is gonna steal 205 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,200 Speaker 4: quite a few targets from people like Hodgens. You know, 206 00:09:35,240 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 4: it's it's pretty clear that Waller's going to be Daniel 207 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:40,920 Speaker 4: jones number one target and by a pretty large margin. 208 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 4: So another thing, Hodgens benefited from having an eighty two 209 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 4: percent catch rate last season, which was really high for 210 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 4: a guy with an eight out of nine point three yards. 211 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 4: Typically you'd expect a catch rate closer you know, sixty 212 00:09:53,800 --> 00:09:57,320 Speaker 4: seventy percent, you know, with an ad out that high, 213 00:09:57,320 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 4: So he could see some regression in terms of convert 214 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 4: targets to receptions. 215 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 3: Now week one, he's gonna be. 216 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 4: A starter, full time player, but it's gonna be tough 217 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:09,920 Speaker 4: for him to command targets that you know, enough snaps 218 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 4: targets and run heavy offense to feel comfortable taking me 219 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 4: over on this with with so much competition behind him, 220 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 4: So you know, I'm projecting him closer to you know, 221 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 4: four hundred and fifty and a half yards maybe for 222 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 4: his medium, But this is another guy where he has 223 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 4: quite a few outs, you know, for the under to hit. 224 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 4: It kind of reminds me of some of these running 225 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,480 Speaker 4: backs that could turn into more of a committee. So 226 00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 4: even though I do like Hodgens his performance last year 227 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 4: as a talent. 228 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:37,920 Speaker 3: This this is a tough prop for him to Claire. 229 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is the one that stood out to me. 230 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 1: I was like, like, this is a big number considering 231 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:45,719 Speaker 1: like we really don't know the rotation, you know, so 232 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: it's kind of also just playing on the uncertainty of 233 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 1: that receiver rotation, which could be fluid all year. 234 00:10:51,000 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 3: When you think. 235 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: About it, you know you have Slaton and Hodgens, but 236 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:56,360 Speaker 1: they're playing high in on the outside. Shepherd has played 237 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: on the outside and Campbell lot Campbell can play inside out, 238 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 1: so you know Hodgen's role, you know it's going to 239 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 1: be fluid, I think throughout the year. Now there's always 240 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: the risk that he outplays everyone and he's the one 241 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,359 Speaker 1: that sticks. But uh, there's six guys that could realistically 242 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:13,520 Speaker 1: get you know, it could be starters on a on 243 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,840 Speaker 1: a team, on the outside or receiver. 244 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 2: I should say, so, yeah, I'm wish you on this one. 245 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: It's just you're just playing on the uncertainty of yeah, 246 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: just giants receiving corps. 247 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 4: And another thing is I know, like you I'm kind 248 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 4: of it makes me uncomfortable taking overs. Yeah, but I 249 00:11:29,920 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 4: really really love like Darren Waller's over. So this is 250 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 4: kind of a way of investing in Darren Waller's over 251 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,640 Speaker 4: without necessarily doing that, because again, he's a guy that 252 00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 4: kind of has uh, you know, checkered injury history and 253 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 4: things like that. So when I take these props, I 254 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:47,520 Speaker 4: do need like a reason for another player to like 255 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 4: go off, and I think that Darren Waller going off 256 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,839 Speaker 4: this season is partly why I like this problem. 257 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Giants passing game is going to 258 00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: look a lot different this year. You know, last year 259 00:11:56,920 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: they just could not throw down the field because they 260 00:11:58,360 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: didn't really have anyone to do what they didn't have 261 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 1: line to protect. So I do, I do think they'll 262 00:12:03,160 --> 00:12:05,480 Speaker 1: have a much better year, but there's just too many 263 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 1: miles to feed to bet. You know, Hodgens, they haven't 264 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: even posts I haven't even seen a prop for Slayton posted, 265 00:12:12,240 --> 00:12:14,400 Speaker 1: which is interesting, Hyatt, I don't think either. So it's 266 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,800 Speaker 1: interesting that Hodgens is the guy that they're posting, and 267 00:12:16,840 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 1: that makes you think that, you know, because the majority 268 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: of these bets are coming in on overs, you know, 269 00:12:20,920 --> 00:12:22,959 Speaker 1: for these props. So it's interesting to me that the 270 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: books have Hodgens stuff and not any of the other 271 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,760 Speaker 1: guys might have a better shot at you know, having 272 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: a roll for a longer more of the year. 273 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,800 Speaker 2: So yeah, all right. 274 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: For my second I am going with Dak Prescott under 275 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: twelve and a half interceptions. This one is very interesting 276 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 1: because I feel like the whole narrative on Dak shifted 277 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 1: last year where when he led the league in interceptions 278 00:12:46,400 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: in just twelve games. I believe it was he threw 279 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 1: fifteen picks, but that was one of the lowest league 280 00:12:51,679 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 1: leading interception rates in a long time. 281 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 2: But more importantly, you know. 282 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:57,719 Speaker 1: Dak's career rate is two percent, you know, so you 283 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,200 Speaker 1: would need about six hundred and fifty pass attempts to 284 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,640 Speaker 1: reach that. You know, his career highs about five ninety six. 285 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 1: We know Mike McCarthy and Schottenhammer they don't want to 286 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:07,880 Speaker 1: just be throwing the ball all around the yard This year. 287 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,440 Speaker 1: I think they'll still throw a decent amount, but you know, 288 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: this is for Dak. This is a big number. That's 289 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: I think a lot like way too based on what 290 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:18,960 Speaker 1: we saw last year. Where you know, we know there's 291 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 1: research out there showing that interception rate takes anywhere from 292 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:26,920 Speaker 1: one thousand of two thousand career pass attempts just to stabilize. 293 00:13:26,960 --> 00:13:29,280 Speaker 1: So you really have to look at their career rates 294 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 1: a lot more than just you know, a twelve game 295 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 1: sample last year where you know, I remember there was 296 00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: one where we got pick six in Jacksonville. It wasn't 297 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 1: his fault. Like a lot of these interceptions just didn't 298 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,400 Speaker 1: go his way. So if you look at his career numbers, 299 00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: about he throws about you know, one every you know, 300 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: zero point sixty seven per game, so about you know, 301 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 1: two thirds of an interception every game. You know, he 302 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: would need to play nineteen to twenty games to reach thirteen, 303 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 1: and about eighteen to reach twelve. So I think, you know, 304 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 1: twelve and a half is too much. I would bet 305 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:00,480 Speaker 1: this down to a lot. I think the median should eleven, 306 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: so I bet it down to eleven and a half. 307 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 1: But any anywhere you can get twelve and a half, 308 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: I think it's too much. I think it's just, you know. 309 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 2: Wait, overweighting the last year's numbers. 310 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 1: When they finally fired the oc kellen Moore who is 311 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: going to the Chargers and wants to have them throw 312 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: it all around the yard and throw deep. So I 313 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: think it's gonna be less aggressive, so less chances to 314 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: throw interceptions as well, just based on the scheme. 315 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 2: So I'm going under twelve and a half for Dak. 316 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, No, I love this one a lot as well. 317 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 4: I was looking into interception props and I was actually 318 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 4: leveraging you know, PFF's turnover worthy play rate, and I 319 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:36,120 Speaker 4: saw like last year you would have gone eight and 320 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 4: two if you just regress the guys that were maybe 321 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,760 Speaker 4: unlucky the year before and the guys that were lucky, 322 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 4: you know, take their over and Dak by far top 323 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 4: this model. He only had nine point nine expected interceptions 324 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,880 Speaker 4: last year, so he was over by five and a 325 00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 4: half picks. So that's just screaming take the under here. 326 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 4: And yeah, I agree, twelve and a half for Dak 327 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 4: is way too high, especially if you know Mike mc 328 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:02,480 Speaker 4: karthy comes through with his promise to make this somehow 329 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 4: more run heavy offense. Maybe they're going to be a 330 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:07,600 Speaker 4: little bit slower paced conservative like that's only going to 331 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 4: lead into this underhitting. So yeah, I love the value 332 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 4: we're getting here under twelve and a half. 333 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: All right, before we go on, just want to say 334 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,840 Speaker 1: that more memories are made when you are there for 335 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:21,000 Speaker 1: live NFL action, and when you need tickets, our friends 336 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: at Ticketmaster have got you covered. At the official marketplace 337 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,720 Speaker 1: of the NFL. Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find 338 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:31,920 Speaker 1: your perfect seat. 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So 346 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 1: find tickets today at ticketmaster dot com slash NFL. 347 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 2: All right, Sean, we got for your third prop. 348 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 4: So I'm going with Nause Harris under nine hundred and 349 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 4: seventy five and a half rushing yards. You know, Nause 350 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 4: has cleared this and each of his you know, first 351 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 4: two seasons in his career. But one thing you note 352 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 4: at the top of the show is you know he's 353 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 4: a running back that's yet to miss a game in 354 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 4: his entire career. That's very That's gonna be very tough 355 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 4: for running back to do that for a third season. 356 00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 4: So there's a chance he finally misses a game or two, 357 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:30,680 Speaker 4: maybe three this year, so that's gonna make it even 358 00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 4: tougher for him to clear this. 359 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 3: But the main. 360 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 4: Threat here is Harris not you know, not gonna be 361 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 4: able to fend off Jalen Warren as much as last year. 362 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 4: You know, Warrens already eat into his receiving work last year, 363 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 4: but all signs point to Warren, you know, eating into 364 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 4: Harris's early down work even more this year. And just 365 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 4: based on their limited preseason action, you know, Warren's gonna 366 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 4: be mixing in a lot more on early downs, even 367 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,840 Speaker 4: more than I thought heading into the preseason. So you know, 368 00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 4: just if you look at some key metrics how these 369 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 4: running backs fared last year, it's clear that Warren deserves 370 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 4: more work. I mean, if you look at avoided tackle 371 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 4: rate out of fifty eight qualified backs, Nause was twenty first, 372 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 4: Jalen Warner was eighth. Explosive run rate, Nause was fiftieth 373 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:19,840 Speaker 4: and Warren was ninth. Yards after contact per attempt Nause 374 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 4: was forty third and Warren was twenty first, So you know, 375 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 4: by all metrics, you know Warren is you know, the 376 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:27,880 Speaker 4: more talented backs, even on early downs, So I think 377 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,720 Speaker 4: there's a threat you know, Warren forces more of a 378 00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 4: fifty to fifty committee, especially between the twenties. So that's 379 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 4: just another additional out for Naji Harris, who does deserve 380 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,120 Speaker 4: like a high prop like this, But just the fact 381 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 4: that it could devolve into more of a committee means 382 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 4: there's probably a ton of value here. I'd probably take 383 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:50,879 Speaker 4: this down to nine hundred, Like that's how much I 384 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,240 Speaker 4: love this prop because again, I think that we're gonna 385 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 4: have additional outs for Naja hitting the under this year. 386 00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know that that's I think, you know, 387 00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:01,320 Speaker 1: part of the he is that he's just never missed 388 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: a game like this guy. You know, we don't we 389 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:06,639 Speaker 1: haven't seen and he's never been super efficient either, so 390 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: you know if he does miss a couple of games, 391 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:12,680 Speaker 1: that's that's really gonna kind of hurt hurt his chances 392 00:18:12,720 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 1: of hitting this, uh, which a pretty high number for 393 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: a running back. 394 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:16,239 Speaker 3: All right. 395 00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: For my third, I am going with Raheem Moster under 396 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 1: five twenty five and a half rushing yards. 397 00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 3: Uh. 398 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:25,600 Speaker 1: This is one where you know this, you know, we 399 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: still don't know exactly what's gonna happen with the Miami 400 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: backfield and Jonathan Taylor and and all that. You know, 401 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: apparently trade talks are heating up. But uh, if they 402 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,320 Speaker 1: acquire Tailor, I mean, you might as well cut this 403 00:18:36,359 --> 00:18:40,359 Speaker 1: prop in half. But even the reason I like it 404 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 1: is because they're you know, even if not like Moster 405 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 1: goes into the year, you know, same as last year 406 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 1: or not same as last year, but with Wilson and 407 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: you know a Chan eventually comes back, there's still a 408 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: lot of outs for this to hit. 409 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 2: Under number one. 410 00:18:53,000 --> 00:18:55,000 Speaker 1: He's going to his age thirty one season, He's missed 411 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:58,479 Speaker 1: twenty six games over his last three years. He's already 412 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: you know, already like me to be in a three 413 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: way committee at some point because I know Ahang got hurt, 414 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: but you know he got less guaranteed money than Wilson. 415 00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 1: He got two mill and then Wilson got two point 416 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,360 Speaker 1: six mil, and then Ahang was drafted eighty fourth overall, 417 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 1: So you know that's that. Then in addition, we know 418 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: that Miami pursued DeAndre Swift Dalvin Cook and now they're 419 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 1: you know, really trying to go out and get Jonathan Taylor. 420 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,360 Speaker 1: So the odds that they want Moster in a big 421 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,959 Speaker 1: role is already low, and the fact that he's he's 422 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: been one of the least durable running backs throughout his 423 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: career and now is in his age thirty one season, 424 00:19:36,680 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 1: I think tells you all you need to know. 425 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,919 Speaker 2: So I would bet this down to five hundred. 426 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: But there's a chance, you know, if they if they 427 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:45,639 Speaker 1: acquired Taylor, this is going way under unless like Taylor 428 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 1: gets hurt maybe, but even then you still need Moster 429 00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 1: to stay healthy. So just way too many things have 430 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: to go right, I think for Moster here to put 431 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,200 Speaker 1: up you know, a good amount of rushing yards again 432 00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: this year. 433 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, he's the perfect type of back to smash the 434 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 4: under on these. Like you said, he's always an injury risk, 435 00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 4: but especially right now, he's a potential like trade risk 436 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 4: where they acquire not even just like a Jonathan Taylor, 437 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,360 Speaker 4: but they could sign like a I don't know, Cream Hunt, 438 00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,760 Speaker 4: Leonard Fournette, so at some point or maybe late in 439 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 4: the season, Derrick Henry, who knows. But just there's so 440 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 4: many ways, so many paths for Mozer to go under 441 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 4: that this one's a no brainer for me as well, 442 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 4: a what you. 443 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,359 Speaker 2: Got for your fourth one? 444 00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:29,920 Speaker 4: So I'm going DJ Chuck under forty four and a 445 00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 4: half receptions, and he's a type player who has a 446 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 4: wide range of outcome since he's mainly a downfield threat. 447 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 4: You know, he had an a dot of fifteen and 448 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 4: a half yards last year. Assuming the Panthers brought him 449 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,360 Speaker 4: in to be used similarly in their offense. However, he's 450 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 4: he's just not a good fit for Bryce Young, whose 451 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 4: main weakness might be, you know, his accuracy downfield. Plus, 452 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 4: last year in all the Division two, he had the 453 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 4: second most time to throw when he attempted to pass 454 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 4: twenty plus yards downfield. He won't have that the NFL, 455 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:05,520 Speaker 4: especially behind the Panthers offensive line. So that's just gonna 456 00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 4: make it tougher for him to target a player like Chark. 457 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 4: So I just don't like the fit with Chark in 458 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 4: this offense. I think, you know, Bryce Young's top target 459 00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:17,160 Speaker 4: early in the season might be Adam Feelin. Then eventually 460 00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,280 Speaker 4: I think Jonathan Mingo will be his top target. I 461 00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 4: think they're the perfect fit for each other. So while 462 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 4: Chark might have spiked weeks, this is the ideal market 463 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 4: to fade. 464 00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 3: Him, you know. 465 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 4: Plus he's missed a handful of games in four of 466 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:33,880 Speaker 4: his five seasons, and he's currently dealing with the hamscreening 467 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 4: ham screening injury where he might be a game time 468 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 4: decision for week one, So if he doesn't suit up, 469 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,920 Speaker 4: this bat'll be avoided. I don't think that's the reason 470 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 4: not to take this. If anything, it is because if 471 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,080 Speaker 4: if he shoots up week one, he could be limited, 472 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,159 Speaker 4: and this is an injury that could linger into the season. 473 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 4: So this is the exact type of that I want 474 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 4: to lock in right now. It was actually forty eight 475 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,880 Speaker 4: and a half last week. It's already down to forty 476 00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:58,640 Speaker 4: four and a half. That's where you know the sharp 477 00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 4: money's going. So I love the downside of DJ Shark 478 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 4: at under forty four and a half receptions, and i'd 479 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,600 Speaker 4: probably bet it down to like forty two and a half, 480 00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 4: forty one and a half somewhere around there. 481 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:10,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like this as well. 482 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 1: You know, Chark is one of those guys that I 483 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 1: already you know, projected for a higher than usual miss 484 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: game risk just based on his career history, and then 485 00:22:19,840 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 1: for him to be entering the year injured again, you know, 486 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:23,639 Speaker 1: I always put a red flag. 487 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,400 Speaker 2: On that like that, because you know, it's just statistically speaking. 488 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 1: It's really hard to project miss games, but you know, 489 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,880 Speaker 1: being injured increases the chances of re injury. It increases 490 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 1: you know, appearing on the injury report increases the chances 491 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 1: of appearing on it again. So it's one of those 492 00:22:37,760 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: things where it's one of the best predictors we have 493 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:41,480 Speaker 1: of a guy who might miss more. 494 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,120 Speaker 2: Games than expected. 495 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: So you kind of couple all that together and yeah, 496 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 1: it's you know, things are things are kind of and 497 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: I know Bryce Young throw his first touchdown and you know, 498 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,240 Speaker 1: people are, you know, hopes are high, but I think 499 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 1: there's gonna be some growing pains, yeah, in Carolina or 500 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 1: just the depths on that team, on the O line, 501 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 1: especially just all over it's it's it's shaky. 502 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,080 Speaker 2: So yeah, I like that, Like the Charks, like Chark. 503 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:09,400 Speaker 1: Under, I'm gonna stick in Carolina then, and I'm going 504 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,440 Speaker 1: Miles Sanders under six and a half of rushing touchdowns, 505 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 1: I think there should be five and a half he's had. 506 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: He's only had seven or more once in his four 507 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: year career, and that was last year with Philly, But 508 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 1: that was for a Philly offense that was third in points, 509 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,240 Speaker 1: third and rush attempts, first in rushing touchdowns in the 510 00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: whole entire league. 511 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 2: One of the best offensive lines in the whole entire league. 512 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 1: Now you're going to a Carolina team that's probably gonna 513 00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:33,200 Speaker 1: be one of the lowest scoring teams in the league, has, 514 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 1: you know, offensive line that looks like it could be 515 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 1: among the league worst. And this is the guy who's 516 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,239 Speaker 1: missed nine games in his last three years, and he's 517 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,960 Speaker 1: dealing with a nagging injury, a nagging hamstring injury already 518 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 1: in camps. He's another guy that they've been holding out. 519 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 1: So just another one of these guys where it all 520 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 1: kind of lines up. You know, you have, you know, 521 00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: going to a worse offense, you have a guy who 522 00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,000 Speaker 1: and you know you have Troube Hubbard behind him too. 523 00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: I know they paid Sanders a lot of money, but 524 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,480 Speaker 1: he's never really stayed healthy until last year he kind 525 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 1: of took on a big workload, so I want to 526 00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 1: kind of fade him coming off that. And I just 527 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:09,159 Speaker 1: think the touchdown potential on a team like Caroline is 528 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,840 Speaker 1: going to be so different than it was on a team. 529 00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:12,120 Speaker 2: Like the Eagles. 530 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:14,040 Speaker 1: So Miles sands because he could stay out the playoff 531 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,760 Speaker 1: seventeen games again and has a pretty decent chance of 532 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 1: going under. Only eighteen running backs had seven or more 533 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 1: rushing touchdown last year, so it's about it's kind of 534 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: the week the median running back would get you know, 535 00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: seven or more so, but there's definitely a chance for 536 00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:29,640 Speaker 1: him to go wonder even if he plays every single game. 537 00:24:29,760 --> 00:24:31,280 Speaker 2: So I'm going under six and a half. 538 00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:33,480 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I definitely like this, but I think he's 539 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 4: he's one of those players that probably has a high floor, 540 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,160 Speaker 4: like he's guaranteed a workhorse role, but like you said, 541 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 4: the offense itself, he really needs an offense to thrive 542 00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 4: in order to clear this number. And again, this is 543 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 4: a team with a new coach, a rookie quarterback, a 544 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 4: new running back Miles Sanders, new receivers, new tight end. 545 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 4: So I think it's gonna take them at least half 546 00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 4: the season just to figure things out. So yeah, that's 547 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 4: gonna hurt Sanders in the long run. So yeah, i 548 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 4: i'd take the under here as well. All right, prop 549 00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:06,680 Speaker 4: number five, which you got, all right, I'm going with 550 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 4: Travis Etn under nine hundred and fifty and a half 551 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 4: rushing yards, and he's another running back who honestly deserves 552 00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 4: a high rushing prop but despite being you know, very 553 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 4: good running back in his prime, he has a few 554 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:25,480 Speaker 4: things going against him in this market specifically. The first 555 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,919 Speaker 4: is the Jags offensive line is not very good. They 556 00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,879 Speaker 4: had the second lowest run blocking grade according a PFF 557 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 4: last year, should continue to struggle again this year. 558 00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 3: And while you know they didn't block well. 559 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,000 Speaker 4: For ETM last year, he was still able to overcome that. 560 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,520 Speaker 4: He averaged five point yards five point one yards per 561 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:47,720 Speaker 4: attempt last year, but at corner I expected yards PERTTEMP model, 562 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 4: it should have been closer to four point six yards 563 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 4: per attempt, so we should see some regression in at 564 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,800 Speaker 4: least in terms of efficiency for him. And the second 565 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 4: is the Jags will have a much tougher schedule against 566 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 4: run defenses this year. Last year they had a top 567 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,120 Speaker 4: ten easiest schedule and this year they're expected to face 568 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 4: the top ten toughest, so another reason. 569 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:09,959 Speaker 3: His efficiency should take a hit. 570 00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 4: And last, but not least, they drafted Tank Bigsby in 571 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 4: the third round and he profiles more as an early 572 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,880 Speaker 4: down back than anything, and based on preseason usage, he's 573 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 4: gonna be mixing in quite a bit, especially on early downs, 574 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:25,800 Speaker 4: and he's looked phenomenal so you know, Etn's played every 575 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 4: snap on third and fourth down when they played starters 576 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,960 Speaker 4: with Tank Bigsby. So I think ETN is probably gonna 577 00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 4: thrive a lot more as a pass catching back this year, 578 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:36,560 Speaker 4: and at the expense of his early down work. I 579 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:39,600 Speaker 4: think that's that's where Tank Bixby is gonna mix. 580 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 3: In a lot more. 581 00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:43,399 Speaker 4: So there's just a lot of different paths and concerns 582 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,280 Speaker 4: for ETN clearing this number. So again, this is a 583 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,240 Speaker 4: guy that, based on last year, would scream under. You know, 584 00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:52,640 Speaker 4: I think his medium should be a lot lower. I'd 585 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:54,920 Speaker 4: probably bet this again, he's a very good running back. 586 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 3: He should have a high. 587 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,920 Speaker 4: Projection, but I'd probably bet it down to maybe nine hundred, 588 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:01,320 Speaker 4: maybe eight to seventy five summer around there. Love the 589 00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 4: value we're getting at nine to fifty and a half 590 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 4: right here. 591 00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, just take a running back bet they're 592 00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: under yardage. It's gonna work out more often than that. 593 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:09,879 Speaker 3: I agree. 594 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: I think ETM is one of the better backs. Like like, 595 00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 1: you know, it could get dicey if he breaks off 596 00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:15,399 Speaker 1: a couple of big plays. It has a couple of 597 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,720 Speaker 1: big games early. But yeah, also, he played seventeen games 598 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 1: last year, and he was banged up in quite a 599 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 1: few games. I mean, he's kind of a he's on 600 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,680 Speaker 1: the slimmer side, so I feel like I've I seen 601 00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 1: him take a few like big hits, and with surprised 602 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 1: that he didn't miss more time. I think there was 603 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: one game where he left early and didn't come back, 604 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,200 Speaker 1: but he still appeared in all seventeen, so that's also 605 00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: unlikely as well. So yeah, another one of these situations 606 00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 1: where there's just a lot more working, you know, in 607 00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 1: the unders favor, even after you kind of credit the 608 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,160 Speaker 1: guy with all the positives. 609 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 2: All Right, I'll close it out here. 610 00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 1: I'm going Dalton Schultz under five hundred and fifty and 611 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,360 Speaker 1: a half receiving yards for my fifth and final one. 612 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: And this is playing on the uncertainty of going, you know, 613 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 1: to a new team and one where he might not 614 00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 1: have the same usage, because if you look at his 615 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,200 Speaker 1: usage in the first three weeks of the In the 616 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 1: three weeks of the preseason with the starters, he played 617 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 1: sixty six percent of the slaps with the starters, and 618 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:20,879 Speaker 1: in Dallas he averaged an eighty one percent snap rate 619 00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:22,960 Speaker 1: over these past three years, So he might not be 620 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,920 Speaker 1: getting quite the same usage. You know, they've been mixing 621 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,159 Speaker 1: in uh, you know, a second tight end, and you 622 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 1: know it's kind of kind of gonna be a different scheme. 623 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:34,000 Speaker 1: You know, there's usually gonna be you know, and there's 624 00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,239 Speaker 1: also a lot of receivers. We don't know exactly how 625 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: that's gonna shake out, So there's just a lot of 626 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,920 Speaker 1: uncertainty where a dunt Schultz may not be, you know, 627 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:43,719 Speaker 1: one of the top targets in this offense when it's 628 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: all said and done. You know, at the beginning of 629 00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:48,120 Speaker 1: the year, off season kind of like okay, you know, 630 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: Euston doesn't really have much, but now it's like they 631 00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 1: have Woods, they have Niko's still there, Tank Dell's looking good. 632 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 1: Like there's just a lot of guys and that could 633 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 1: be a fluid situation all year long. So you know, 634 00:29:00,600 --> 00:29:02,680 Speaker 1: I think over five point fifty is a lot and 635 00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:05,600 Speaker 1: then his career average up the target is seven. So 636 00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:08,240 Speaker 1: this is the guy who he can still catch a 637 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:12,200 Speaker 1: decent amount of passes and it's still gonna be tough 638 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 1: for him. I think to go over this without a 639 00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 1: couple of monster games, which I just don't know if 640 00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 1: he's gonna have with c J. 641 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 2: Stroud in year one. 642 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:24,160 Speaker 1: So I'm just going under with schultzier at five fifty 643 00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:25,560 Speaker 1: out bet it down it's about five hundred. 644 00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, obviously I love this one. I've been 645 00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:32,160 Speaker 4: bagging on Schultz all off season, and yeah, his preseason 646 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,840 Speaker 4: usage was not a good sign that he's he's gonna 647 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 4: get a lot of playing time. And I don't think 648 00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:39,320 Speaker 4: Brevin Jordan even played in the preseason, So you know, 649 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 4: Schultz's brats run right, might be even lower. 650 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,040 Speaker 3: And you know, CJ. Stroud is a rookie quarterback I 651 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 3: am concerned with. 652 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 4: I think he's gonna have a tough transition to the 653 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:50,440 Speaker 4: NFL if you just look at who he's throwing to 654 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:54,640 Speaker 4: at Ohio State. I mean one season he had Chris o'lave, 655 00:29:55,720 --> 00:30:00,880 Speaker 4: Garrett Wilson, Jackson Syth jig Bed, and future top five pick. 656 00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 3: Marvin Harrison Junior. 657 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:03,680 Speaker 4: I mean, my god, Like it's rare you see a 658 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 4: guy actually see a downgrade in pass catching talent when 659 00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,920 Speaker 4: you go to the NFL. So yeah, he's gonna see 660 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,720 Speaker 4: Dalton Schultz runner out there. It's a downgrade for Stroud 661 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 4: going to the NFL. So yeah, I think just investing 662 00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,080 Speaker 4: in unders in sort of the Texans passing game except 663 00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:20,160 Speaker 4: for Tank Dell, but specifically Dalton Schultz is definitely the 664 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:20,760 Speaker 4: way to go here. 665 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm hearing you know, the backs are saying 666 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,320 Speaker 1: they're gonna be more involved in the pass game this year, 667 00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 1: especially Pierce, So you know that also might set up 668 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 1: a situation where if you are leaving somebody in a block, 669 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:33,880 Speaker 1: it might be Schultz instead of instead of the back too. 670 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,880 Speaker 1: So that's another that's another thing to watch out for. 671 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,480 Speaker 1: But all right, that is gonna do it. Let me 672 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:43,760 Speaker 1: recap our top five props each Sean likes Rashad White 673 00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: under seven hundred and a half rushing yards, Isaiah Hodgens 674 00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: under five hundred and a half receiving yards, Najie Harris 675 00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 1: under nine hundred and seventy five and a half rushing yards, 676 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 1: d J Shark under forty four and a half receptions, 677 00:30:57,040 --> 00:31:01,160 Speaker 1: and Travis Etn under nineundred and fifty and a half 678 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 1: rushing yards. I'm going Brian Robinson Junior under seven hundred 679 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:07,720 Speaker 1: and fifty and a half rushing yards, Dak Prescott under 680 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,719 Speaker 1: twelve and a half interceptions. Raheem Mostered under five one 681 00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,240 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five and a half rushing yards, Miles 682 00:31:14,280 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 1: Sanders under six and a half rushing touchdowns, and Dalton 683 00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:22,440 Speaker 1: Schultz under five hundred fifty and a half receiving yards. 684 00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 1: That's gonna wrap it up for our season long player 685 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 1: prop episode for twenty twenty three. Here on the Action 686 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 1: Network podcast presented by FanDuel, you can find Sean on 687 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: x at the Underscore odds maker, I'm at Chris Raybon 688 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 1: and we're at those same handles on a free award 689 00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: winning Action Network app. Be sure to check out actionnetwork 690 00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 1: dot com from me edar season long player rankings for 691 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 1: fantasy or player projections, and of course we start getting 692 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 1: our week one stuff up there pretty soon as well, 693 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 1: so be sure to check that out. 694 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:55,880 Speaker 2: Till next time, it's get this money. 695 00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:16,040 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 696 00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 697 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,960 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler