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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow read.

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Speaker 2: Enough, No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sixteen just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 3: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that shop with mind? Good buddy, and

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Speaker 2: that's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 2: the most.

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Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one. It's left too, the

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Speaker 2: wide eyed.

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Speaker 1: Drilled bibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth?

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Speaker 1: Pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Helloy one.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff. Joining me as

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Speaker 1: always for another handicapping adventure across the pond are my

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Speaker 1: co hosts, my friends BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabundo. But

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Speaker 1: before I bring those two gentlemen in to break down

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Speaker 1: this week's Premier League Slate game by game, then take

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Speaker 1: a little jaunt through the Bundesliga La Liga Siria A

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Speaker 1: league on Think give out our three leg underdog parlay

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Speaker 1: another doozy this week. I think it's one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventy seven to one, and then our best bets in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League. A reminder that Wonder Goal is proudly

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand.

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Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code Action to get Bet three

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Speaker 1: any game, get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. You

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Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older. The offer is available

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Iowa, and Virginia and the

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Speaker 1: United States. If you have a gambling problem, please call

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Speaker 1: or text one eight hundred gambler BJ Anthony. Welcome back.

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Speaker 1: Last weekend was a lot of fun. Hopefully we have

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Speaker 1: so much Funday morning. Yeah, yeah, I mean it was

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Speaker 1: set up really well for us. And why didn't you know,

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Speaker 1: Why didn't you know Everden let us down? Which doesn't

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Speaker 1: ever happen. We won't start with the Everdon Wolves relegation

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Speaker 1: six point at which I think is probably the highest

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Speaker 1: stakes match of maybe across all EAS Europe already. We'll

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Speaker 1: start with Newcastle and Liverpool. It's an eleven thirty am

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Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday. Newcastle's plus one twenty at home Liverpool

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Speaker 1: two to one on the road. The draw is plus

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Speaker 1: two to seventy five. All three of us are in

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Speaker 1: agreement here, Anthony, Yeah, I'm gonna.

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Speaker 2: Be on Newcastle at home. The market has moved a

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Speaker 2: little bit. I was hoping that we would get Newcastle

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Speaker 2: right around to pick them at home, but the market's

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Speaker 2: a little wiser to that, so they have moved. And

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Speaker 2: it is interesting because there was a pretty big delta

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Speaker 2: between these two teams in the preseason markets. Newcastle was,

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Speaker 2: you know, the sixth best team with betting odds coming

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Speaker 2: into the season, where Liverpool was pretty comfortably third, and

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Speaker 2: we're already seeing a little bit of convergence toward I

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Speaker 2: think what our general consensus was, which was that the

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Speaker 2: market is kind of underestimating Newcastle because now they are

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Speaker 2: a home favorite. Now they are a home favorite to

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Speaker 2: the point where if you take out home field, Liverpool

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Speaker 2: is still considered the better team. And I would generally

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Speaker 2: say that that's probably fair. But when you look at

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Speaker 2: how well Liverpool has played away from home defensively in

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Speaker 2: the last year and a half, and then that continued

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Speaker 2: in their first match against Chelsea, where I didn't think

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Speaker 2: they played particularly well defensively, then you start to, you know,

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Speaker 2: find the holes in this Liverpool team. Now they will

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Speaker 2: not have Alexis McAllister, so I would expect Endo to

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Speaker 2: make his full debut as a starter at the base

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Speaker 2: of midfield. That is a you know, Endo is okay,

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Speaker 2: he's thirty years old, but he's not nearly as athletic

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Speaker 2: as McAllister, So he may offer more ball winning, but

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Speaker 2: he's not the same level of athlete, and I do

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Speaker 2: think that is a downgrade for them, given how much

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Speaker 2: Newcastle relies on just out athleting people and being physical

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Speaker 2: and in really fast and transitions. So I think the

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Speaker 2: Magpies are a little cheap and I'm going to bet

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Speaker 2: them at home here plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you. I think that there's a couple

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Speaker 1: of teams in that big former Big six that's now

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Speaker 1: turned into a big eight in the Premier League that

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Speaker 1: have shown some serious cracks in the armor, and.

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Speaker 4: I think.

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Speaker 1: We should still we should be taking them on when

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Speaker 1: we can, and we'll get to a few more of

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Speaker 1: them done the rest of the slate, but Liverpool is

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Speaker 1: definitely one of them. I mean, I said it on

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Speaker 1: the last podcast, how simple it is to unlock this

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Speaker 1: Liverpool defense, it's one ball basically, and they get they

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Speaker 1: come undone at Bourne with showed that within four minutes

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Speaker 1: when they spiced twice twice. Yeah, one of them chalked

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Speaker 1: off for VR. But you thought that they the Liverpool

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Speaker 1: defense saw, you know, would see that and you know,

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Speaker 1: shiver up their spine, let's get our act together. But

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds later the ball's back in the net again.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I think this defense is still right for

95
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Speaker 1: the picking tough venue with thought like you, Anthony had thought,

96
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Speaker 1: we're going to see a little bit of a better

97
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Speaker 1: number because of Newcastle's I don't know. I guess mundane

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Speaker 1: performance against Manchester City but didn't really get there. But

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Speaker 1: I still like the money line at plus one twenty five.

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Speaker 1: So I'll be on the Magpies as well, beja.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I will be too. I think the market hasn't

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Speaker 4: really gone far enough on Liverpool yet. You know, Anthony

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Speaker 4: mentioned that Endo is probably gonna be making his debut

104
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Speaker 4: in the middle of the pitch here. That helps in

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Speaker 4: some respects, But when you're going against a Newcastle team

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Speaker 4: that is one of the best teams in the Premier

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Speaker 4: League in terms of transition offense, in Liverpool just showing

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Speaker 4: a complete and ability to defend in transition. Now was

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Speaker 4: interesting in that match against City and what City did

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Speaker 4: to essentially neutralize Newcastle's high pressing is they had a

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Speaker 4: very narrow build up shape. It was a three to

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Speaker 4: two three to two, so they essentially made Newcastle defend

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Speaker 4: in the middle of the pitch and then and basically

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Speaker 4: put Grealish and Fote in one on one situations in

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Speaker 4: now wide areas against the fullbacks. Liverpool can do that,

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Speaker 4: but Liverpool is not the team that can have game

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Speaker 4: control like Manchester City can. So it's a very very

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Speaker 4: difficult matchup for them. Even saw it against Bournemouth. You know,

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Speaker 4: Bournemouth Bornemuth forced three high turnovers, a lot of them came,

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Speaker 4: you know, within the first twenty minutes there and they

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Speaker 4: obviously scored the goal off of it. Newcastle is, you know,

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Speaker 4: five times better of a pressing team than Bournemouth is

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Speaker 4: at this stage. So we even go back to last season,

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Speaker 4: Newcastle obviously unbelievable at Saint James Park, close to a

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Speaker 4: one point five actually differential per ninety They one of

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Speaker 4: their only losses came against Liverpool. Liverpool scored twice early

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Speaker 4: on and then Nick Pope got a red card. But

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Speaker 4: after that red card happened, Newcastle still controlled over fifty

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Speaker 4: percent possession and created close to two expected goals. So

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Speaker 4: I think it's a great spot here for Newcastle at home.

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Speaker 4: I don't think the market's gone far enough. I have

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Speaker 4: Newcastle projected and minus one nineteen, so I like them

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Speaker 4: at plus one twenty.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and it is interesting, you know BJ hates Liverpool,

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Speaker 2: but I also have plus one zero eight here, so

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Speaker 2: I do show value on Newcastle. I think that when

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Speaker 2: you look at Newcastle as well, I think it is

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Speaker 2: a little bit instructive to look at where's the market

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Speaker 2: moved on certain teams. Remember we had that conversation last year,

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Speaker 2: because as you get closer to kickoff and the limits

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Speaker 2: go off and you see sharp red money come in late.

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Speaker 2: Some of it is overreaction. I think you can play

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Speaker 2: against that sometimes, but you also are seeing kind of

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Speaker 2: where the respected groups are coming in. And Newcastle is

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Speaker 2: a team that has taken a lot of money in

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Speaker 2: both of its you know, two matches here, so against City,

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Speaker 2: I mean they were plus one almost when we had

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Speaker 2: that conversation on the pod. By the time the game

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Speaker 2: kicked off, City was minus one ten and then the

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Speaker 2: same was true on opening Day. I think BJA gave

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Speaker 2: out one thirty five on the pod against Villa and

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Speaker 2: they ended up closing close to one sixties. So they've

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Speaker 2: taken some pretty significant money them and a couple other

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Speaker 2: teams I'll talk about later. It's kind of true to

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Speaker 2: what happened last year as well. So there is clearly

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Speaker 2: market sentiment that likes this Newcastle team, and I've always

157
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Speaker 2: felt that way about them, so at least recently felt

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Speaker 2: that always recently said not always.

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Speaker 1: Going back to the Steve Bruce Dace, Anthony was saying team.

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Speaker 2: Always the season you preseason, all right.

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Speaker 1: So that's a Sunday kickoff.

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Speaker 2: Maximum against City. They could have used.

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Speaker 1: Him, They could have used him too bad. Well they

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Speaker 1: have Anthony Gordon. So let's go to Friday afternoon. Now,

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Speaker 1: that's a Sunday eleven thirty am kickoff Friday Friday Night

166
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Speaker 1: Lights with Chelsea and Lutontown. This is at Stamford Bridge.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea's minus five hundred on the three way line. These odds,

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Speaker 1: of course are from Bet three six Fivetontown twelve to one,

169
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Speaker 1: and the draw is six to one. Chelsea has been

170
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Speaker 1: a little bit of a fun experiment through the first

171
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Speaker 1: two weeks. I think them and Spurs, of the teams

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Speaker 1: that legitimately have aspirations of finishing in the top four,

173
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Speaker 1: were the two teams I think folks were assured about

174
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Speaker 1: just in terms of like projecting them, not their ceiling

175
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Speaker 1: or anything. Just they didn't know what to do with

176
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Speaker 1: these two teams. Spurs has kind of Tottenham's kind of

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Speaker 1: answered the questions and we have some stuff to build

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Speaker 1: off of. Still very confused about Chelsea really strong showing.

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Speaker 1: I thought in the one one draw to Liverpool in

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Speaker 1: match week one come undone against west Ham, we kind

181
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Speaker 1: of all were kicking ourselves a little bit for not

182
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Speaker 1: trusting our everything that we've seen out of this team

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Speaker 1: for the past, you know, twelve months on the road

184
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Speaker 1: at west Ham there, but what are you gonna do?

185
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Speaker 1: And I have no idea what to make of this team.

186
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Speaker 1: I will say I think that this match sets up

187
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Speaker 1: pretty well for live betting and over if it's pretty tight.

188
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Speaker 1: In the first ten or fifteen minutes, Newton Town got

189
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Speaker 1: just demolished by Brighton four goals on four expected, and

190
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Speaker 1: Chelsea has shown some serious cracks. So would it be

191
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Speaker 1: shocked if Lutontown gets on the board here but over

192
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,520
Speaker 1: three and a half can find out there like plus

193
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Speaker 1: one thirty or so would be my lean. Not something

194
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Speaker 1: I'm thrilled about to play. But bj what about you.

195
00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,520
Speaker 4: I like Lutontown here, Michael, I like them on the

196
00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:17,959
Speaker 4: spread plus one and a half and if you want

197
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:19,880
Speaker 4: to do a twelve to one on the money line,

198
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Speaker 4: I wouldn't hate that either. I mean, listen, this is

199
00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:24,600
Speaker 4: a situation that we kind of went through with Manchester

200
00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,760
Speaker 4: United last season where they were horrible to begin under

201
00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,040
Speaker 4: Eric ten Hogg. They figured things out tackley as they

202
00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:33,920
Speaker 4: get progressed more throughout the season. But there are these

203
00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,600
Speaker 4: opportunities that we come along in the beginning of these

204
00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:40,520
Speaker 4: type of eras, and especially the Marisa Pochatino era, where

205
00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:43,360
Speaker 4: we can pick them off maybe once or twice before

206
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Speaker 4: we see the full rounded squad here for Chelsea, I mean, listen,

207
00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,960
Speaker 4: it's a very very difficult thing to basically overhaul an

208
00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:55,640
Speaker 4: entire squad, bring in a new manager and then have

209
00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:57,560
Speaker 4: to deal with some injuries to your best players, lik

210
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Speaker 4: In Cuckoo, like Rhys James likes Fafanna, so yes, Moyses

211
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Speaker 4: Causeto is in. They lost to west Ham. I was

212
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Speaker 4: talking to Anthony on Monday. He called it a Ponzi

213
00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:10,920
Speaker 4: scheme win for west Ham, which I kind of agree with.

214
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Speaker 4: It wasn't you know, Chelsea was the better team there.

215
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Speaker 4: I'm not gonna walk away from that saying anything else,

216
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Speaker 4: but I mean, listen, Loutontown very well may end up

217
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Speaker 4: being the worst team that we've ever seen in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League. Talent wise, there is a massive, massive gap

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Speaker 4: between them and Chelsea. But Lutontown is in the same

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Speaker 4: mold as a team like Brentford in their style of

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Speaker 4: play which they will play five at the back. They

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Speaker 4: are relying on set pieces and they will come out

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Speaker 4: and they will press you, and they will press you intensely.

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Speaker 4: I mentioned in our preview episode Loutontown four hundred and

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Speaker 4: twenty seven high turnovers forced in the championship last season.

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Speaker 4: Next closest was Sheffield United and they were sixty high

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Speaker 4: turnovers away from them. They can be described as a

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Speaker 4: team that doesn't press. They chase so in Town throughout

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Speaker 4: this season is not gonna go down without a fight. Yes,

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Speaker 4: they got absolutely demolished by Brighton and the opener, and

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Speaker 4: they very well may get demolished here by Chelsea. Chelsea

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Speaker 4: is now laying a price that is more than what

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Speaker 4: Brighton did in the opening week against Lutontown. So either

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Speaker 4: the market is telling us that Chelsea is a better

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Speaker 4: team than Brighton, which I don't believe to be true

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Speaker 4: at this juncture, or Lutontown is truly that bad and

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Speaker 4: they've made these massive adjustments after getting routed in match

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Speaker 4: week one. I think it's somewhere in the middle, and

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna keep fading Chelsea until they start to show

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Speaker 4: some of the signs of what they should be given

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Speaker 4: the amount of money that they've spent here. So I

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Speaker 4: like Lutontown plus one plus one and a half. Best

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Speaker 4: price you can find out there is plus one eighteen.

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Speaker 4: This is a solid defensive team that can play five

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Speaker 4: at the back. So I'm gonna keep fading Chelsea until

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Speaker 4: they start to show what they should be given the

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Speaker 4: amount of money that they've spent. Oh man, it.

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Speaker 2: Just feels like like what Lowton wants to be is

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Speaker 2: gonna get carved by any decent team. That's my thing,

250
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Speaker 2: And I watched the opening match against Brighton and I

251
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Speaker 2: was scared and how easy it was for Brighton to

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Speaker 2: just get by them and then walking into the penaltaria.

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Speaker 2: Chelsea is exactly what we all thought they were through

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Speaker 2: two matches. I think the public narrative has gone a

255
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Speaker 2: little overboard on how bad bad, quote unquote they've been

256
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Speaker 2: because I thought they played pretty well against west Ham.

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Speaker 2: You know they can set off the set piece against

258
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Speaker 2: set PCEFC, you know, so be it. They dominated the

259
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Speaker 2: rest of the second half. They get done on a

260
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Speaker 2: counter by Antonio and it was kind of like a

261
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Speaker 2: nothing play and then you know they give away light penalty,

262
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Speaker 2: but they had their chances. I know everybody wants to

263
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Speaker 2: make fun of Mudric and wants to joke about you

264
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Speaker 2: know this that the reality is Chelsea is first passed

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Speaker 2: in the penalty area, first crosses in the penaltaria, thirteenth

266
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Speaker 2: shots per ninety and I think it's what we identified

267
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Speaker 2: as the biggest problem coming into the season when Cuckoo

268
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:54,400
Speaker 2: was out. It's who's going to shoot and they don't

269
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Speaker 2: have anybody who is consistently going to get shots for

270
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Speaker 2: this team. Sterling looked really good against west Ham, but

271
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Speaker 2: he's not getting shot. He's been bringing the ball in

272
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Speaker 2: the box and then there's nobody to cut it back

273
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Speaker 2: to Jackson's Okay, but like that's it. So I think

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Speaker 2: they're going to somehow have the same problems. What's up?

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Speaker 1: They said they could really use Ramululu Kaku They honestly,

276
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Speaker 1: they should just put them up there.

277
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Speaker 2: I don't know they would score goals. Yeah, I know

278
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Speaker 2: he was really bad in the bel in for the

279
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Speaker 2: World Cup with Belgium, and then he was really bad

280
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Speaker 2: in the Champions League final, but like week to week

281
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:24,880
Speaker 2: he was good in Italy. So yeah, they need they

282
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Speaker 2: just need a guy to take shots, and they don't

283
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Speaker 2: have that right now. So that's why they're thirteenth in shots.

284
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Speaker 2: That's why I cannot lay minus one seven five. But

285
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Speaker 2: I'm definitely not betting looton here.

286
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,400
Speaker 1: All right, let's flip it to Saturday and we'll talk

287
00:14:37,440 --> 00:14:40,560
Speaker 1: about born With and Spurs. This one's taking place at

288
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:44,520
Speaker 1: the Vitality Stadium on the South Coast, home of the

289
00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:48,840
Speaker 1: Cherries plus two eighty at home Spurs odds on on

290
00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:51,880
Speaker 1: the road the Drows plus two sixty. I kept trying

291
00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:55,680
Speaker 1: to tell Anthony that the Spurs team was legitimate all

292
00:14:55,800 --> 00:15:00,520
Speaker 1: summer long that the managerial higher was good. Oh yeah,

293
00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,360
Speaker 1: he only has eyes for one manager and it's the

294
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Speaker 1: guy managing Liverpool, so he didn't listen to me. Down

295
00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:08,120
Speaker 1: to twenty eight to one or so to win the league.

296
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:13,000
Speaker 1: They were forties starting the season. This number those seems

297
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 1: a little a little rich on Spurs. Yeah, Bourne myth

298
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,880
Speaker 1: was both good and bad against Liverpool. I would say

299
00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:24,720
Speaker 1: brave maybe is the right answer. There got on the

300
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:30,120
Speaker 1: board first, then the defense started to struggle to cope,

301
00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:34,360
Speaker 1: so it's tough. I would be a little bit closer

302
00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,560
Speaker 1: on bournemth. This does feel like everyone's going to think

303
00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 1: it's an open match, like back and forth. She saw

304
00:15:40,360 --> 00:15:44,120
Speaker 1: to defensively flawed teams with managers who just they want

305
00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:48,120
Speaker 1: the ball. They want to go, go, go, Anthony. That

306
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:49,160
Speaker 1: means you're going the other way.

307
00:15:50,120 --> 00:15:52,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, naturally, right, And we talked about a rovers until

308
00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:55,880
Speaker 2: the market reacts. Did the market overreact? I think it's

309
00:15:55,920 --> 00:15:58,320
Speaker 2: just possibility here with this total sitting at three, leaning

310
00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:01,200
Speaker 2: toward three two five. Now I don't know that I

311
00:16:01,200 --> 00:16:04,200
Speaker 2: agree with that because Tottenham maybe without James Madison here

312
00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 2: and Tottenham don't really have a ton of shots. You know,

313
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 2: they've they've lost Harry Kane in case you live under

314
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 2: a rock, and the replacement for him is for Charleston,

315
00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,760
Speaker 2: who has attempted two shots in the first two matches

316
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,360
Speaker 2: of this season. And I you know, look, you know,

317
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,560
Speaker 2: Bournemuth is going to play this pressing style and they're

318
00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 2: going to be defensively vulnerable in Tottenham certainly has conceded

319
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,160
Speaker 2: already four expected goals in two matches, which is a

320
00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:35,520
Speaker 2: lot against Brentford and United. But Bournemuth is a much

321
00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,720
Speaker 2: worse attacking team than both of those teams, and so

322
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,680
Speaker 2: you know, you don't want to overreact to that. And

323
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,960
Speaker 2: Tottenham without Madison, I don't really know who fills that

324
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 2: role because Madison's been playing in like this ten role

325
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,600
Speaker 2: in the two three five and they've been you know,

326
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,200
Speaker 2: Besuma and Sar. You know, starting last week we're really

327
00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,680
Speaker 2: good Sar getting into the box, getting forward a bunch,

328
00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 2: but that's relying on Madison being the primary passer that

329
00:16:58,600 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 2: kind of pulls the strings of the attack because Kane

330
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,760
Speaker 2: being gone kind of leaves them without a true creator

331
00:17:04,320 --> 00:17:08,359
Speaker 2: and he's questionable at best here. You know, Premiere injuries

332
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,639
Speaker 2: has him at fifty to fifty to play based on

333
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 2: the know how they discussed it after the match and

334
00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:16,280
Speaker 2: what and said, it seems more likely than not that

335
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:17,960
Speaker 2: he would miss this week and be back next week

336
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,720
Speaker 2: for precautionary reasons. So if he's out, I think this

337
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 2: total is high at three. Sonny has been kind of

338
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 2: put out wide and I think that's a good outlet

339
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,439
Speaker 2: in this system against a Bournemouth team that's going to

340
00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:30,840
Speaker 2: press and try to force the issue on Tottenham. But

341
00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:32,600
Speaker 2: I also think Spurs are going to just be better

342
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,560
Speaker 2: building out from the back and avoiding those high turnovers

343
00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:38,919
Speaker 2: that Bournemouth needs to score, because they did make some

344
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 2: tweaks with Poro in the second half and then Romero

345
00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,919
Speaker 2: just makes them better I think in terms of building

346
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 2: out and he did play. The biggest issues you saw

347
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,040
Speaker 2: with Spurs were after Romero went out in the opener.

348
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:54,639
Speaker 2: So I do think this total is a touch high.

349
00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 2: But last game was so open like that United Spurs

350
00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,959
Speaker 2: game could have ended to two and probably should have

351
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 2: what it should have been. But remembertheless, time the march

352
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:04,840
Speaker 2: is on.

353
00:18:05,840 --> 00:18:12,159
Speaker 1: Nevertheless, we march on to BJ's club Arsenal minus four fifty,

354
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,959
Speaker 1: taking on Fulham hosting Fulham Cottagers ten to one on

355
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:19,080
Speaker 1: the three way line and the draw is six to one.

356
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 1: I rarely bet Arsenal. I'd have to go back and

357
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,320
Speaker 1: look to see how many times I bet them last season,

358
00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:30,639
Speaker 1: but it's definitely under five and I'm gonna bet him here.

359
00:18:30,640 --> 00:18:33,120
Speaker 1: I think that team total over two and a half

360
00:18:33,200 --> 00:18:35,000
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen. If you want to go three and

361
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,480
Speaker 1: a half to get a plus number, bigger number, fine,

362
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,679
Speaker 1: I think they can name it here. We talked about

363
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:46,040
Speaker 1: this Fulham defense all last season. Nothing has changed. They

364
00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: are bleeding scoring chances, already at the foot of the

365
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,160
Speaker 1: table in terms of expectacles allowed, and they've played Evertten

366
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 1: and Brentford. Now we're taking a massive step up in class.

367
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 1: Going on the road. Just doesn't seem like the whole

368
00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:03,960
Speaker 1: the team is in a good spot generally, because you

369
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 1: know the Mitrovic saga, Marco Silva, like I said, he

370
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 1: had his head turned and he's got a reputation for

371
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,760
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff as well, the all for one

372
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,359
Speaker 1: kind of mentality that we saw in early last season,

373
00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:18,440
Speaker 1: which helped them pull some big results and spend a

374
00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:21,399
Speaker 1: lot of time in the top half of the table

375
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 1: going to the World Cup. Seems to be gone and

376
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 1: the defensive regression is coming still. So Arsenal team total

377
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: over two and a half for me, I think is

378
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,120
Speaker 1: the way I'll play it. I know you guys are

379
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,080
Speaker 1: passing here, but BJ spare Penny.

380
00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I generally would look at an arsenhole.

381
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:42,120
Speaker 4: You know, either team total over two and a half

382
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,439
Speaker 4: or minus two and a half here, Paul and you

383
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 4: will be back for Fulham, which helps them in the

384
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 4: middle of the pitch, obviously stopping Arsenal. You know where

385
00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 4: they're at their best, which is creating overloads the middle

386
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:53,479
Speaker 4: of the pitch, creating those one v one situations out

387
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:56,399
Speaker 4: wide from Martinelli and Soka. But yeah, I mean you

388
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,880
Speaker 4: mentioned me Fulham their defense is a mass. Tim Raim's

389
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:01,439
Speaker 4: gonna miss this match. I mean, how do they stop Arsenal.

390
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:06,120
Speaker 4: I don't really know. They've you know, they've conceded. You know, well,

391
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,600
Speaker 4: there's three point seven to Brentford, two point seven to Averton.

392
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:12,520
Speaker 4: What do you think Arsenal's going to do. Arsenal destroyed

393
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 4: them in both meetings last season, created well over two

394
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:18,520
Speaker 4: expected goals, needed a late winner off of a set piece,

395
00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 4: but again created a ton of chances against them at

396
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 4: the Emirates, and without Mitrovich, this Fulham offense is just inept.

397
00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:28,919
Speaker 4: They just don't have anything. They have counter attacks that

398
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:31,439
Speaker 4: maybe can lead to a few chances, some cutbacks and

399
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,160
Speaker 4: crosses that way, but they don't have an aerial threat

400
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 4: in the middle of the pitch. I mean, Raljumnez cool

401
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 4: not really going to do much as we progress more

402
00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 4: throughout the season. I mean, if he gets injured, it's

403
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 4: just gonna go be Carlos Fonisius up there. So yeah,

404
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 4: there's some when we talked about it, there's some real

405
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,720
Speaker 4: bottoming out potential with this Fulham team, and we're kind

406
00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 4: of seeing it for the first two matches.

407
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, and let's hope it continues.

408
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 4: Yeah.

409
00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:01,560
Speaker 1: Brentford and Palace then another couple of team squaring up.

410
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 1: The Bees plus one hundred at home, even money favorite

411
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 1: at the Brentford Community Stadium, Palace plus two seventy five

412
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,240
Speaker 1: on the road the draw is plus two fifty. We've

413
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:14,480
Speaker 1: talked about how the market is starting to get infatuated

414
00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:17,280
Speaker 1: with this Brentford team that we were saying it is

415
00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 1: really good a couple of seasons ago. They've been awesome, though,

416
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 1: I mean, they made it look easy against Fulham and

417
00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,560
Speaker 1: you know, we can kind of read into that result

418
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 1: as you wish because of how Fulham's form has been,

419
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 1: but a strong effort against a Spurs team that was

420
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 1: full value in match week one. This they're Brentford's creating

421
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 1: chances for fun so far to start the season. That said,

422
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:44,840
Speaker 1: I'm I'm impressed with Palace man, I'm impressed with Roy

423
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,359
Speaker 1: Hodgson and Crystal Palace. That that Arsenal performance was fine,

424
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 1: Like he did what you were supposed what you have

425
00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 1: to do against Arsenal in your Crystal Palace at home

426
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 1: and created an expectacle. I think that Arsenal was around two.

427
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 1: It's I think as expected amost. And they kept themselves

428
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 1: in that match and that's all you can ask. They

429
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 1: were really good against Sheffield United, which you know, reading

430
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,639
Speaker 1: to that as you wish as well. But I would

431
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 1: lean towards Crystal Palace because I do think that this

432
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,639
Speaker 1: number is gonna go high as money comes in on

433
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,400
Speaker 1: go higher as money comes in on the b's here, Anthony, Yeah,

434
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 1: pretty easy.

435
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 2: Pass for me. You know, Brentford's better they're at home

436
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 2: gets me too, right around with the number is I

437
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 2: do think it's interesting that Palace is taking a lot

438
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 2: of money in the first two weeks. They are up

439
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 2: there on the list with Newcastle, who I talked about earlier,

440
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 2: and now you know, Palace is the second team and

441
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 2: there's a third one we're going to discuss later too.

442
00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 2: But this Palace team, you know, closed plus a half,

443
00:22:44,040 --> 00:22:46,359
Speaker 2: Arsenal closed minus one ten. When we did this show,

444
00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 2: Arsenal was minus one seventy. We were like, ah, we

445
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: kind of like Palace plus one, but we're not really

446
00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 2: sure what to make a Palace yet, so we'll wait

447
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,240
Speaker 2: it out. And then Palace plus one was a great

448
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 2: bet and you know, ended up pushing but like you said,

449
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 2: could have easily won that late after the red card.

450
00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:04,400
Speaker 2: Arsenal did do like does do a lot of defensive

451
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 2: possession once they have the lead, which is what scares

452
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 2: me off of betting them against Fulham. But they know

453
00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:09,679
Speaker 2: they can pick their score if they want, but they

454
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,439
Speaker 2: don't like to do that sometimes, so that concerns me

455
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,680
Speaker 2: as far as this match goes. Yeah, easy Pass didn't

456
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 2: really learn a ton about Brentford against Fulham, I thought,

457
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 2: because yeah, they played well, but so much of the

458
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 2: domination came after the red card, like it was a

459
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,520
Speaker 2: relatively even contest, and then Brentford got the red and

460
00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 2: the pen went up to nil and then just the

461
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 2: flood gates opened and then it was kind of a

462
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 2: beat down after that, but the game was over. And

463
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 2: it's funny how that works for Fulham. Like last year

464
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 2: Fulham gets the most red card locked this year they

465
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 2: go down a man. Now they're getting destroyed and hurting

466
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 2: their XG differences and whatnot. So the question for me is,

467
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 2: you know, if Pallace gets steamed again, I would probably

468
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: take Brentford if I got to like plus one twenty,

469
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:52,879
Speaker 2: but I don't think it will, so I'm going to

470
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 2: pass b J.

471
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:56,639
Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of like a both teams score no

472
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 4: here minus one oh five. I mean Brentford. They conceded

473
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 4: at a really chance to Tottenham in the first match.

474
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,840
Speaker 4: Since that point on, they've faced twenty five shots and

475
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:08,560
Speaker 4: only conceded one point one expected goals, which is what

476
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:12,359
Speaker 4: Brentford does right. They only allow low quality chances. Crystal

477
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 4: Palace like they were good against Sheffield United, but like

478
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 4: I mentioned, they took twenty four shots and other than

479
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 4: one inside the six yard box. Everything else was incredibly

480
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,199
Speaker 4: low quality. And then you know, they were up a

481
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:24,439
Speaker 4: man for thirty minutes against Arsenal and they still couldn't

482
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:27,400
Speaker 4: create over one expected goal. So in terms of this matchup, though,

483
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 4: I mean Crystal Palace, where they're at their best and

484
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 4: where they're successful is when they're playing mostly in transitional

485
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 4: moments offensively with as a Elise and ed Ward running

486
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 4: at you. They're not the type of team that's gonna

487
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 4: sit back, you know, sit there and try to break

488
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,160
Speaker 4: down a low block, which they're not gonna be playing

489
00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 4: much in transition here because Brentford's one of the best

490
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 4: transitional defenses in the Premier League. And if they struggled

491
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 4: creating high quality chances against Sheffield United's three five to two,

492
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 4: well what are they gonna do against an elite three

493
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 4: to five to two like Brentford's. The flip side of

494
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:00,479
Speaker 4: it is, you know, Crystal Palace is a very very

495
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 4: good defensive team. They were very good against you know,

496
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 4: non elite offenses in the Premier League last season, only

497
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 4: allowed point nine to three expect goals for ninety minutes

498
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 4: outside of the top six offenses they faced. Both matches

499
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 4: here ended in a one to one draw. Last season,

500
00:25:16,080 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 4: it was essentially nothing happened for the first hour and

501
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 4: then Pallace creates a big scoring chance, they score, and

502
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 4: then Brentford equalizes late. But given the fact that these

503
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 4: are two of the top ten defenses in the Premier League,

504
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 4: both offenses, you know, Brentford's obviously been great in the

505
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 4: first two matches. We'll see what they do against this

506
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 4: Crystal Palace defense, which is very very good. So I

507
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,560
Speaker 4: mean I had both team to score projected at minus

508
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 4: one thirty four. So best price you can find out

509
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 4: there right now is minus one o five. I think

510
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 4: there's some decent value on that.

511
00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: I wanted to check In bj Eddie Nikattia, how do

512
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 2: we feel about his finishing on Monday?

513
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 3: Do we like that or well, you know, you know,

514
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 3: believe well, expected goals is the only thing that ever

515
00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 3: matters Anthony and you know that. So but in Nikaya

516
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 3: have like to all of all arsenals expect goals in there.

517
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:03,960
Speaker 4: So yeah, he's fine, don't worry about it.

518
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 2: We shall see.

519
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 1: Still on a lead striker though, all right, that means

520
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:11,880
Speaker 1: it's time to talk about Everdon. And when it's time

521
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 1: to talk about Everdon, it also means it's time to

522
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: talk about Caldera Lab, a skincare regiment that I do

523
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 1: right before I brush my teeth. It's just three products,

524
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 1: the clean Slate, the base layer and the Good. I

525
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 1: have the clean Slate bottle right here with me, very

526
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 1: nice looking bottle. The clean Slate is the face wash,

527
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,640
Speaker 1: the bass layer is the moisturizer, and the Good It's

528
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: a serum that I use at night to reduce my

529
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 1: visible wrinkles, which are there because I bet on Everdon

530
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 1: last week. I bet on Everdon match Week one, I

531
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 1: root for Everdon. They are zero and two and now

532
00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: are in a relegation six pointer. It gainst wolves. And

533
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:51,600
Speaker 1: right before we talk about that, a reminder that just

534
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,920
Speaker 1: for our audience, we have an exclusive offer Caldera's best

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537
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,920
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538
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,480
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539
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540
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 1: words like you look younger or you must not have

541
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: bet on Everden this weekend. And now we find out

542
00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: will we be betting on Everydon this weekend. They're plus

543
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: one thirty against Wolverhampton. They're at home, which is a

544
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:30,640
Speaker 1: good thing. Wolves plus two twenty. The job is plus

545
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: two thirty. These two teams have been drunk to start

546
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:38,400
Speaker 1: the season. I don't know another way to to say,

547
00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 1: Like Everdon that first match dominate Fulham Neil Malpie. I mean,

548
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 1: if God bless the man just couldn't find the backside

549
00:27:48,480 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: of a barn, then they just get absolutely torn to

550
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: shreds by Villa in a match that we all were

551
00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 1: pretty confident Everydon was gonna be in a couple one

552
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: mistake they were massively that and the Pickford Penn giving

553
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: away the pen to Douglas Suiss and that was all

554
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,439
Speaker 1: she wrote from there. Everything kind of did what they

555
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:11,680
Speaker 1: did last season, which was once they deal with a

556
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: little bit of adversity, they just kind of shrink. But

557
00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 1: these two teams, like I said, they've been drunk. That

558
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: the matches have been so high event for both of them.

559
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 1: I did not think that was going to be the

560
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 1: case with Wolves at all. But that's what we're looking at.

561
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 1: And Anthony, you think we're looking at I guess another

562
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: drunk match here at Goodison Park.

563
00:28:29,560 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like both teams to score. Look, I know

564
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 2: that both of these attacks are picking up right where

565
00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 2: they left off last season, being the worst underperformers in

566
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,479
Speaker 2: the league. When you look at goals minus expected goals,

567
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 2: teams that have not been good at finishing Neil Malpei

568
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 2: and I'm looking at you, various Wolves attackers, I'm looking

569
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 2: at you. But these defenses are too bad to warrant

570
00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 2: this price being minus one ten, minus one oh five

571
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,840
Speaker 2: even out there, these are you know. Wolves. First of all,

572
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 2: Wolves have averaged through two matches nineteen shots a game,

573
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: which I would have of all the stats and small

574
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 2: samples and random things that happen, you know, when the

575
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 2: sample was two games, it's not really meaningful. But that

576
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 2: is the most shocking stat of the first two weeks

577
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: is that Wolves are second in shots for ninety I

578
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 2: would never have imagined that. But I did actually think

579
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: Wolves played really well against Brighton. You know, I felt

580
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 2: a little nervy watching the goals. We looked a little

581
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 2: weak in transition defense and Wolves really outplayed us for

582
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 2: good stretches of that first half. As to us, no.

583
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 4: It's us, We're a part of the team.

584
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and in the second half is when they're transit.

585
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 2: The Wolves defense got really exposed. And I think that,

586
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: you know, as Wolves play less defensive possession, but you know,

587
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 2: use their talent in this transitional way and make games

588
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 2: more back and forth. They will score more, but they

589
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 2: will also concede more and I think that is going

590
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 2: to leave a ton of space for Everton here to

591
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: attack as well. And I think Wolves will get their

592
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 2: dribbles in there once they beat the Everton Press, They're

593
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,000
Speaker 2: going to have good looks at the back line. So yeah,

594
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 2: both these defenses are too bad to warrant the price

595
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 2: at the current number, So I like both teams to score.

596
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 2: If I had to bet a side, I would also

597
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: bet the Toffees, but I'm really not looking to do

598
00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 2: that this week.

599
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: I want to see where this never goes. I'm the

600
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: same way, like, it's going to be hard for me

601
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 1: not to do it. Everton is the only team that's

602
00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:21,720
Speaker 1: played two matches that's yet to score, so that's been good.

603
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:26,080
Speaker 1: Didn't really look like they wanted to against aston Villa.

604
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 1: But they're back home, you know, yeah, exactly that that

605
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 1: match against Fulham complete different and as we talked about

606
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: with the laun Shapiro in that preview pod, like Coutison

607
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: parks one of the better home field advantages, but it

608
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 1: could turn toxic in this match as well, which it does,

609
00:30:41,200 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 1: which it does on a dime. So we'll see. It's

610
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: going to be an annoying Saturday morning watch for me

611
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: as the Toffees probably lose what two to one for

612
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 1: to one close? BJ, What are your thoughts.

613
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 4: Over two and a half? Anything plus money good enough

614
00:30:59,000 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 4: here for me?

615
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:00,240
Speaker 2: Yes?

616
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 4: I mean, here's what it boils down to for Everton,

617
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 4: Michael like they guess what? They forced fourteen high turnovers

618
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 4: again against Aston Villa, but they didn't do anything with it.

619
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 4: And what's happened with Everton going even back to the

620
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 4: Frank Lampard days. They've just been so bad in transition

621
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 4: defense for so long and Sean Ditsch with this high

622
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 4: pressing style has not fixed that whatsoever. So once you

623
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 4: beat the first line of the press, it's just acres

624
00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 4: of space for people to operate. In two matches, Everton

625
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 4: five goals conceded, four point four expected goals conceded. The

626
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 4: underlying numbers are just as bad as what we've actually

627
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 4: seen on the pitch. And here's another problem, especially in

628
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 4: this matchup, and something aston Villa really honed in on

629
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 4: is Everton last season allowed the most crosses to be

630
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,959
Speaker 4: completed in their penalty area of anybody in the Premier League,

631
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:51,000
Speaker 4: and aston Villa time and time again was trying to

632
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 4: get the ball and white areas and trying to hit

633
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 4: crosses into That's how the again first goals was scored

634
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 4: and it's how really Wolves can really attack them here.

635
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 4: Gary O'Neills, Bournemouth last season completed the eighth most crosses

636
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: of anybody in the penalty area. They're also with the

637
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 4: third most efficient set piece defense or excuse me, stet

638
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 4: piece offense. Everton was very, very poor depending set pieces.

639
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 4: So the flip side of that is though Everton's way

640
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 4: over to to score Michael, so they should be able

641
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 4: to bring a lot of chances here. It looks like

642
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 4: no dominique. Colbert Lewin unfortunately.

643
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,520
Speaker 1: Has heard that one coming. Yeah, I will say I didn't.

644
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: I didn't have broken cheekbone. In the back of my mind.

645
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:29,880
Speaker 1: I was just thinking he'll he'll pull up in like

646
00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: the fortieth minute right with like a hamstring.

647
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: But but I mean listen to Wolves gonna torn Hammy.

648
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 4: Wolves is still going to try to buil out of

649
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 4: the back. Everyone's gonna press them high. It's just going

650
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,719
Speaker 4: to create very end to end chaotic style match. So

651
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 4: I'm with Anthony, you know both, you know, in terms

652
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 4: of the chaotic match. So over two and a half goals,

653
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 4: best price you can find out there is plus one

654
00:32:50,960 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 4: seventeen anything plus money is good here for me.

655
00:32:55,040 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: It has to feel of a match that, if I'm

656
00:32:57,960 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 1: not endorsing it like a specific one, but has the

657
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:02,960
Speaker 1: feel of a match where if you wanted to throw

658
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 1: in like a crazy name your score, bet one of

659
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: those you know are and a half, yeah, like something

660
00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 1: crazy like it. I think if you want to have

661
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,479
Speaker 1: fun with ten bucks five bucks, yeah, and put in

662
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: like a four to two exact score, it's not bad.

663
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 1: Or if you want to back someone to score two

664
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 1: plus this this match, it's one of those classic matches

665
00:33:22,640 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 1: we talk about where the outcomes are just all over

666
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: the place.

667
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 4: And zero zero of course, you know, within zero's a

668
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 4: million expected goals created.

669
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,440
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to United and Forrest. Now

670
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: United's minus three thirty four Force seven to one at home.

671
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 1: There's some pretty big numbers out there as well, and

672
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:43,959
Speaker 1: then the draw is five to one. I like forrest

673
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: here kind of in the same tune as BJ was

674
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:52,480
Speaker 1: talking about with Chelsea. I think that you can take

675
00:33:52,480 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 1: on Manchester United at big numbers and feel pretty comfortable

676
00:33:56,520 --> 00:33:58,640
Speaker 1: with it. Right now. I think they were better than

677
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 1: the score suggested against them, but there's still so many

678
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:07,360
Speaker 1: things where they can they can come undone in an

679
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: instant right. They're making mistakes, their defense, their defense is

680
00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 1: not there yet. Four should sit deep. We saw them

681
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: have trouble with these kind of low blocks all last

682
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 1: year as well, and like for all fours faults, like

683
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 1: they've scored in both matches so far, they've got three

684
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: in the bank. Already beat Cheffield and they beat chefter

685
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 1: United two to one. Yeah and uh when Yeah, but

686
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 1: they scored against Arsenal, they gave They made it a

687
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,359
Speaker 1: little interesting down the stretch in that match. So they

688
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: have they have a little bit of bite to them,

689
00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 1: I think, is what I'm trying to say. And United

690
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,560
Speaker 1: just you can't trust them. You just can't at this moment.

691
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 1: So maybe as the season goes on we can and

692
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 1: they just don't. I've heard it a couple of times now,

693
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:55,600
Speaker 1: they don't look fit like they seem to be just

694
00:34:55,600 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 1: like wilting down this yeah running it's really weird. So yeah,

695
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be at forced here. I like the Forest

696
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:04,439
Speaker 1: money line.

697
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 2: See Roy Keane certainly had his his fair share of

698
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:08,919
Speaker 2: opinions out to that Tottenham match.

699
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 1: Yeah he's not He's usually keeps those opinions in his pockets.

700
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,840
Speaker 4: Yes, he's usual straight laced by the book.

701
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,319
Speaker 1: Is anyone joining me here?

702
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 2: Heeels like a good get right spot for United to me.

703
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 2: But I think that if the attackers can't do anything

704
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 2: against Forrest, we have to start really asking questions because

705
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: Anthony Garnaco and Rashford have not been good at all.

706
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:36,640
Speaker 2: Pretty much all the attack has come from Bruno uh.

707
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:39,400
Speaker 2: In the first two matches. They're producing a lot of

708
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 2: shots and a lot of box entries, but like the

709
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,560
Speaker 2: good stuff from the center of the penalty area, they're

710
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 2: just not getting any of it. Rashford has been has

711
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 2: been poor and Mason Mount is probably gonna miss here.

712
00:35:48,640 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 2: Looks like he's out. So who replaces him is a

713
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 2: really interesting question because if it is Ericson, that does

714
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 2: add a lot of passing range, and I think with

715
00:35:55,920 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 2: the two of them, Rickson and Fernandez next to each other, like,

716
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,360
Speaker 2: that's just gonna kind of wreck Forrest. And let'say, Anthony

717
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 2: and Garnacho kind of just be in the penalty area

718
00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:06,120
Speaker 2: and should help solve the shots problem. But if he

719
00:36:06,320 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 2: is in there as well, he's old, he doesn't do

720
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 2: a lot of defensive work at all, and now you're

721
00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 2: kind of carrying two passengers. Whereas Mount you know, I

722
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 2: know he's been criticized in his first two weeks, but

723
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 2: he does do some good defensive stuff. So if he's out,

724
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 2: that makes them even more vulnerable and transitioning defensively. And

725
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: you know, Losandro and Casimira have been terrible. I think

726
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 2: that's been the biggest problem for United. They rely so

727
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: much on those two guys last year being really good,

728
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 2: and they were, but they've been so bad. So I

729
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 2: think that both teams to score here minus one oh

730
00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: five is my price. I know how bad Forrest has

731
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: been away from home, and that's it's a scary thing

732
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: because I think their defense could crumble in this match.

733
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:44,799
Speaker 1: But just just the one win for them last year

734
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:45,360
Speaker 1: away from.

735
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: Me exactly, I do think they can score though, and

736
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: I think, you know, with Tywo out there, they have

737
00:36:49,760 --> 00:36:52,399
Speaker 2: been a good attack when he's on the pitch, they've

738
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 2: been a good attack.

739
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:55,760
Speaker 1: Beat. What are your thoughts?

740
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, this number is right around where I have it

741
00:37:00,120 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 4: of United a minus two sixty two. And you know,

742
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 4: it will be interesting to see if Nigham Forrest can

743
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,920
Speaker 4: actually get at United in transition here to see. I

744
00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 4: mean this, Casimiro is great, but he's also getting older

745
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 4: and if so, if you bring Erickson on the pitch, you're,

746
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 4: like Anthony said, you're losing another kind of defensive option

747
00:37:19,719 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 4: in transition. So not em forced may be able to

748
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:27,239
Speaker 4: get at them that way. And the Anana thing is

749
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 4: it's going to be interesting as we go throughout the season.

750
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 4: You know, it's only a two match sample size, but

751
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 4: something Anthony also mentioned coming into the season, he's not

752
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 4: a great shot stopper. He's great at playing out of

753
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 4: the back and it helps United in their build up play,

754
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 4: but he's made some mistakes early on here, so we'll

755
00:37:43,719 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 4: see how that goes throughout the season. But I goll

756
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 4: credits not Eam Forrest second fewest e spectacles allowed through

757
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 4: two matches, only one point three, So I think that's credit. Yeah,

758
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 4: I know.

759
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 2: A very good at claiming crosses in the penalty area

760
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 2: as well. He showed that against Wolves very very efficient.

761
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 4: Yeah do it and luckily, luckily Nottingham Forest doesn't cross

762
00:38:06,200 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 4: the ball at all. They're they're you know, the your

763
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 4: classic build up through the middle type of team.

764
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:15,040
Speaker 1: Twelve thirty pm kickoff are usually reserved for you know,

765
00:38:15,080 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 1: the bigger matches on a Saturday is a standalone and

766
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 1: now it's Brighton minus one eighty eight hosting west Ham

767
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 1: plus four twenty five. The draw is plus three seventy five.

768
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 1: I feel this way about Arsenal as well, that Arsenal,

769
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 1: like if you want to bet like an Arsenal team

770
00:38:31,200 --> 00:38:35,760
Speaker 1: total over minus two and a half, whatever, I feel

771
00:38:35,760 --> 00:38:39,839
Speaker 1: like Brighton and Arsenal both make decent round robin likes.

772
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: College football is back week zero. Make sure to listen

773
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: to the Big Bets on Campus podcast to get some

774
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 1: some good betting insight on week zero and beyond. But

775
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 1: I feel I think Brighton in this spot actually makes

776
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: a decent round robin le like if you're going to

777
00:38:57,000 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: do something with with some college football underdogs merely underdogs,

778
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 1: And like I said, I feel that way about Arsenal,

779
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:04,439
Speaker 1: So it would be brightened or nothing here, But I'd

780
00:39:04,440 --> 00:39:06,279
Speaker 1: want to play them in that kind of fashion where

781
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: it's like, uh, you know, I just don't want to

782
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 1: have him as a standalone bet. I'd rather them as

783
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: like a leg and a parlay in a in a

784
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 1: more kind of all day type bet that I can

785
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: have some fun with. So that's my thinking here on

786
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 1: the Seagulls, who off the charts numbers to start the season. Uh,

787
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 1: I really am interested to see if deserve he just

788
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: sticks around for this whole season, because you know, we're

789
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: two weeks into the season, about to be three into

790
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 1: the in the Premier League. We're probably three weeks away

791
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: from some teams starting to get restless with managers. H

792
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 1: dude to missing expectations in the early going. And uh

793
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 1: yeah yeah, Anthony, as Anthony said.

794
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 4: Fire potter, Anthony said, ever.

795
00:39:55,040 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: But Brighton just cooks like this, Why would you ever leave?

796
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 1: That's how I'd play it, Anthony, what are your thoughts?

797
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:04,400
Speaker 2: Well, the first time this season, I will not be

798
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 2: betting the Brighton Seagulls at the current number. Brighton is

799
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:13,040
Speaker 2: the third team, along with Pallas and Newcastle that have

800
00:40:13,040 --> 00:40:15,920
Speaker 2: taken money every week and they like we said on

801
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:17,560
Speaker 2: the show, and they were minus one oh five and

802
00:40:17,600 --> 00:40:19,759
Speaker 2: we laughed, and so that's a ridiculous price. Against Wolves,

803
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:21,680
Speaker 2: they closed minus one thirty. They won four to one.

804
00:40:22,280 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 2: It was a relatively competitive match, but the second half

805
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:28,319
Speaker 2: was not. The goals continued to just pour it on

806
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:32,080
Speaker 2: and you know, I think the numbers about right here.

807
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 2: West Ham's win against Chelsea, like I said, was a

808
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 2: bit of a Ponzi scheme when you look at how

809
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: they can do these things to equalize games. Set pieces

810
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,279
Speaker 2: are certainly the main way, and James Ward Prowse being

811
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 2: in there will will improve your set pieces automatically. But

812
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 2: there's also like the drop off between Rice and like

813
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,799
Speaker 2: Socheck looks done to me and Ward Prowse is not

814
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: even close to declan Rice in the actual run of play.

815
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 2: Edson Albarez may may pop in here. They need him

816
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 2: because they are in trouble because what west Ham was

817
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 2: so good at last year and really what they've been

818
00:41:08,120 --> 00:41:09,799
Speaker 2: good out nder Moys is Okay, we'll let you have

819
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 2: the ball. We're gonna let you possess and have it

820
00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: in the final third and non dangerous areas, but you're

821
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 2: not gonna get a lot of shots, you're not going

822
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 2: to get into our penalty area efficiently. Chelsea walked into

823
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:23,480
Speaker 2: the penalty area over and over and over again, and

824
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,120
Speaker 2: I think that was the biggest difference. So, you know,

825
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 2: you look at the result and you're like, yes, resounding

826
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: defensive performance, classic David Moys. But there were a lot

827
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:34,239
Speaker 2: more cracks under the hood than you know, maybe we

828
00:41:34,320 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 2: originally thought if you just looked at the results and

829
00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 2: you said, yeah, they conceded one, but again you know,

830
00:41:39,040 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 2: mudric volley, and they had the other cut back to

831
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 2: Jackson that he missed, and then there was the miss

832
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 2: penalty of course. So I think there was a lot

833
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:49,040
Speaker 2: of holes in the performance, and I think the defense

834
00:41:49,080 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 2: could get exposed here. But again, you know, the set

835
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:55,160
Speaker 2: pieces sufficiency, they're gonna be a tough, tough out. So

836
00:41:55,920 --> 00:41:59,719
Speaker 2: I think west Ham has secured maybe it's floor, you know,

837
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 2: because they're certainly better than enough of these teams. They're

838
00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 2: not probably not getting relegated. I know we hinted at

839
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 2: that in the preseason, but this defense could get worse.

840
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:10,399
Speaker 2: I think there's a real chance that.

841
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 4: It does.

842
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,360
Speaker 1: Anything for you here on Brighton over west Ham. I

843
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 1: shouldn't even say that the second part anything for you

844
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 1: here on Brighton.

845
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 4: No, I agree with the Anthony. The number is about right.

846
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 4: From May I projected Brighton and minus one ninety five.

847
00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 4: If those cracks that we saw against Chelsea continue here

848
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 4: against Brighton, I mean Briden's going to pour four goals.

849
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 4: And again I mean last season towards the end Brighton.

850
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:36,760
Speaker 4: In this same match Brighton home against west Ham, Brighton

851
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:39,760
Speaker 4: won four to nothing, created three point five expected goals,

852
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:41,879
Speaker 4: just created a chance after chance, every chance, and west

853
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 4: Ham had absolutely no answers. So this is another situation

854
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 4: where again, if you want to play Brighton minus two

855
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 4: or minus one and a half and chase a bigger price,

856
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 4: I think there's some decent value in this. But I

857
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 4: want to see where this line goes because we hit Brighton,

858
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 4: you know, mis two five at some shops. Now now

859
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 4: it's creeped back down to minus one eighty. It just

860
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,120
Speaker 4: came out today that and Siso got injured in training,

861
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:11,279
Speaker 4: which Brighton has a plethora of wonderful attackers, so I'm

862
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 4: not too concerned with the loss of him. Our guy,

863
00:43:14,680 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 4: haven't Ferguson keeps coming off the bench, They keep starting

864
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,479
Speaker 4: getting well back up top I'm not really sure why.

865
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:22,520
Speaker 4: I assume it's as well Back is better, tackically better,

866
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 4: oppressing better of what Deservey wants to do. But I'd

867
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 4: like to see our guy. Haven't Ferguson score a couple

868
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 4: more times and get on the pitch at least start.

869
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:33,799
Speaker 2: I wonder why you were financially incentivized to hope that

870
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:37,719
Speaker 2: Ferguson gets on the pitch. Yes, I think so far.

871
00:43:37,760 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 2: I think Ferguson eventually, like you bet the talent long term.

872
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 2: But you know they've been playing pretty well with Danny

873
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 2: Wellback and I be nice.

874
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:47,360
Speaker 4: I didn't say to do it. I just had to

875
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 4: be nice if they started having fergus.

876
00:43:48,719 --> 00:43:51,839
Speaker 2: Golden boot winner and leader is playing off the rights

877
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:57,319
Speaker 2: so they don't need a strike. You know, well Back

878
00:43:57,320 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: hasn't scored yet, it doesn't matter. Yeah, upon getting in

879
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,480
Speaker 2: on the action as well. It's been a great FPL pick.

880
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 1: All right, Sunday, good morning, Welcome back. Burnley, Lamon Lutontown

881
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: had last week off while Lutontown finishes up. There was

882
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 1: the upgrading of Kenilworth Road, Burnley's at home hosting aston

883
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: Villa to Claren and Blue Sides going at it. The

884
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:25,879
Speaker 1: line here is Burnley plus two forty Villa plus one

885
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 1: fifteen and the draw at plus two forty Villa. Coming

886
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:32,359
Speaker 1: off that walk in the park against Everden, I thought

887
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 1: this line would be a little bit better on Burnley

888
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 1: even at home, and just Villa looked so good. Obviously,

889
00:44:38,680 --> 00:44:41,399
Speaker 1: Burnley was off last week, so out of sight, out

890
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: of mind. Plus the last time we saw them they

891
00:44:43,560 --> 00:44:46,799
Speaker 1: were getting ramped a little bit by City, So this

892
00:44:46,840 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 1: looks right to me. I'm going to be passing here,

893
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,240
Speaker 1: PJ anything, Yeah, I'm.

894
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:53,120
Speaker 4: Passing as well. I think the number is about right.

895
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 4: I had aston Villa close to plus one twenty here.

896
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 4: The thing about Burnley is the reason they were so

897
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 4: good in the championship is not only because they were

898
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,240
Speaker 4: able to control possession and you know, have dominate matches

899
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 4: that way, but they're one of the best pressing teams.

900
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:10,359
Speaker 4: Like they pressed really, really intensely to their opponents. I'm

901
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 4: not sure if that's going to work here against Aistonville,

902
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 4: and if it doesn't work, aston Ville is going to

903
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:19,680
Speaker 4: absolutely rip them apart the same way that they did Everton. Also,

904
00:45:19,719 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 4: there's this, you know sentiment out there that Nathan Tello

905
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,799
Speaker 4: was kind of all of Burnley's offense last season. Now

906
00:45:27,880 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 4: he's at Southampton. They did make some signings, you know,

907
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 4: I'm a Dooney coming in is a decent signing, but

908
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:37,719
Speaker 4: he didn't really you know, he hasn't only played one

909
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,239
Speaker 4: match with Burnley, so kind of interesting to see where

910
00:45:41,280 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 4: the offense actually comes from Burnley, especially a team that

911
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,279
Speaker 4: we mentioned many times over for him by about twenty

912
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:49,759
Speaker 4: goals in the Championship, so it's a pretty easy pass

913
00:45:49,760 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: for me. But I do want to see how effective

914
00:45:52,600 --> 00:45:55,799
Speaker 4: Burnley's pressing is here at home against a team that's

915
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:57,600
Speaker 4: going to primarily build out of the back, to see

916
00:45:57,920 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 4: if for future reference, if they are going to be

917
00:45:59,640 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 4: a live or not.

918
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 1: Yeah.

919
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:03,440
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with Burnley. I mean,

920
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:04,919
Speaker 2: we didn't see them play last week, and we saw

921
00:46:04,920 --> 00:46:06,560
Speaker 2: them play Man City in the first match. I mean

922
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 2: we I mean I think they were okay against City.

923
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 2: They didn't get overrun completely, but they weren't that competitive either.

924
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, no no play for me. I thought that

925
00:46:14,600 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 2: the market would give us a better number on Burnley

926
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,399
Speaker 2: plus a half, but it did not, and it gets

927
00:46:19,440 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: at the sentiment that the market is not like aston

928
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 2: Villa at all. The Everton you know, was plus one

929
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 2: twenty five plus a half and we bet it. Last

930
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 2: week they closed minus one fifteen and Villa was right

931
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:33,360
Speaker 2: around minus one ten. So a bad weekend for CLV

932
00:46:33,480 --> 00:46:37,799
Speaker 2: betters last weekend. But Villa has now twice in a

933
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 2: row the market has moved against them, and they opened

934
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:41,520
Speaker 2: in a much lower number than I thought it would

935
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 2: this week because Villa is a team that BJ andF

936
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,359
Speaker 2: consistently said they're overvalued, and the market is now kind

937
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 2: of coming around to what we said, even though Villa

938
00:46:50,320 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 2: had a resounding four no win, which I find fascinating.

939
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 2: But yeah, no, no player.

940
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 1: All right, our last Premier League match to talk about it,

941
00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:58,520
Speaker 1: and it'll be pretty quick discussion.

942
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 2: The best will it be Jay's betting Sheffield because he's insane?

943
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:09,800
Speaker 1: Yea? And then we'll go through, right, yeah match.

944
00:47:09,680 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 2: I don't even know he didn't so he hasn't scored

945
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 2: in three of the four matches that he have played

946
00:47:14,000 --> 00:47:14,319
Speaker 2: this year.

947
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:18,960
Speaker 4: True are they is city? Is City worse with Holland?

948
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 2: I think we have to start asking the question.

949
00:47:21,840 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 4: This may this may be my last time betting on

950
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:25,400
Speaker 4: Sheffield United. I'll be flat honest.

951
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:32,080
Speaker 2: I would lay minus a thousand. That's not true.

952
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 4: I just can't believe that this team, in terms of

953
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 4: where the market is pricing them, is as bad comparatively

954
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 4: to what they were in the Championship. And I get

955
00:47:41,600 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 4: it they've lost some pieces. They just signed Cameron Archer

956
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 4: from aston Villa, which is a good signing to help

957
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 4: their offense. Manchester City is in a very weird place

958
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 4: right now. Like Pep Guardiola is going to miss the

959
00:47:51,440 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 4: next few matches because he's had back surgery. Everything we

960
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 4: know about Pep Guardiola is he's an absolute control freak

961
00:47:56,520 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 4: and I don't think that his assistance have really been

962
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 4: pulling strings for from the touch line and making tactical changes.

963
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 4: So not going to downgrade City like enormously, but it

964
00:48:06,000 --> 00:48:08,240
Speaker 4: does affect him a little bit going into this match

965
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:11,200
Speaker 4: and the version that we're going to see with City

966
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 4: this season, and it's going to be, you know, if

967
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 4: you feel more comfortable playing under three, I think there's

968
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 4: some still some value on that. But City is going

969
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 4: back to absolute game control because they're playing four center

970
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 4: backs along with rodri and you know, especially with Kavachist

971
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 4: in there as well, he's not really a get forward

972
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 4: type of midfielder in the mold of what Gundigan was

973
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 4: still know Kevin de Bruyna. So now City is sitting

974
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 4: here kind of comparatively to seasons past, are limited in

975
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:39,239
Speaker 4: terms of their attackers and listen, they only created one,

976
00:48:39,280 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 4: expect a goal against Newcastle. They scored the goal and

977
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 4: then they kind of just controlled everything from that point on.

978
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,840
Speaker 4: And that's kind of where I landed here, is that

979
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 4: I don't think they should be laying two goals on

980
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 4: the road to a team that I still believe is

981
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 4: a decent defensive team and will be okay as we

982
00:48:56,600 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 4: go throughout this Premier League season. Gustavo Hammer is a

983
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 4: good sign in the Coventry City He was their best

984
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:04,080
Speaker 4: midfielder getting them to a promotional playoff spot last season.

985
00:49:04,560 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 4: United can Sheffield United can play in this five through too.

986
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,480
Speaker 4: I know that they, you know, conceded some decent chances

987
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 4: to Nottingham Forest on the road, didn't look great against

988
00:49:13,040 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 4: Crystal Palace. But laying two goals on the road in

989
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 4: the Premier League is always a difficult, difficult thing to do.

990
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 4: And I know it's Manchester City, but given how defensive

991
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 4: their approach has been to begin this season and how

992
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 4: it's going to be as we go throughout this season.

993
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 4: I think they're over valued here. So I like Sheffield

994
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 4: United plus two and minus one ten and it might

995
00:49:32,280 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 4: be my last ever bet on them, but we'll see.

996
00:49:34,719 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 4: I think that the market's just gone way, way too

997
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,839
Speaker 4: crazy low on this team.

998
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would maybe bet. You can convince me about

999
00:49:42,200 --> 00:49:45,000
Speaker 2: the under, but you cannot convince me about Sheffield plus

1000
00:49:45,040 --> 00:49:46,279
Speaker 2: two two point two?

1001
00:49:47,120 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 4: What about sixteen to one? No, Michael, I can see

1002
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 4: your Yeah.

1003
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,799
Speaker 1: This year, I'm trying to a good record on those

1004
00:49:55,840 --> 00:49:58,000
Speaker 1: maybe maybe Tom Davis anytime goalscorer.

1005
00:49:58,560 --> 00:49:58,880
Speaker 4: True.

1006
00:49:58,960 --> 00:50:00,799
Speaker 2: And also they're playing photo he said, tear up.

1007
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 1: City in his In his I think his Premier League debut,

1008
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:06,800
Speaker 1: he took uh yeah yea Torre for for a walk

1009
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:10,320
Speaker 1: at Goodison Park and found they've.

1010
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:13,480
Speaker 2: Been playing photees centrally. It's not his best position. He's

1011
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 2: looked great, played well there, but like again, like it,

1012
00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:20,080
Speaker 2: they're like shoehorning things in here, Like yeah, I.

1013
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:21,439
Speaker 1: Mean that's what they do, that's what they do.

1014
00:50:22,400 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 2: Would LoveJ said Pep's assistants don't do anything.

1015
00:50:27,080 --> 00:50:28,640
Speaker 4: I didn't say that. I said that.

1016
00:50:30,280 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 2: Pep's cone guy for like years.

1017
00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 4: All I said is he's a control freaking that imagining

1018
00:50:37,280 --> 00:50:40,520
Speaker 4: that the sistants probably aren't making tactical changes themselves from

1019
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 4: the touch line like other teams are like mostly Michael's boy,

1020
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 4: Carlo Ancelotti, who just kind of stands there. I love

1021
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 4: him his son. It's his son Michael who makes all

1022
00:50:49,480 --> 00:50:51,480
Speaker 4: the tactical changes for that.

1023
00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: Maybe he'll come back to everything Bundesliga. TI uh just

1024
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 1: waiting to be against Byron Munich, but I'm betting Osburg

1025
00:51:02,160 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 1: to do it again. So I'm just gonna sit this

1026
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,279
Speaker 1: one out, Nanty, what are you with?

1027
00:51:06,560 --> 00:51:06,799
Speaker 4: Yeah?

1028
00:51:06,880 --> 00:51:10,800
Speaker 2: So there is a Jude Bellingham and Rafael Guerrero sized

1029
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:13,960
Speaker 2: hole in Dortmund right now. They had four passes into

1030
00:51:14,000 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 2: the penalty area at home against Cologne, which is like

1031
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,319
Speaker 2: really bad for their numbers. They ended up with, you know,

1032
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:22,720
Speaker 2: one point five xg Malin scored late they won cool,

1033
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 2: but now it's three and a half the total on

1034
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:30,080
Speaker 2: the road at Bochum. Bocham was a team that won

1035
00:51:30,120 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 2: as many home games as they lost last year. They've

1036
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:36,359
Speaker 2: been a difficult out at home. They have showed some

1037
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 2: defensive solidity there and have rallied And I know that

1038
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:41,360
Speaker 2: the total is now three and a half. I have

1039
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 2: my questions about Dortmun's defense, but you know, Bokeum plus

1040
00:51:45,400 --> 00:51:48,879
Speaker 2: goalie at home and Dortmund having you know, some ball

1041
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: progression issues. I think this is a lower scoring game

1042
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 2: in the market suggests, so I'm going under three and

1043
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:56,799
Speaker 2: a half. And it's funny. My biggest edge of the

1044
00:51:56,800 --> 00:52:00,439
Speaker 2: weekend is actually glod Bach, but I don't I don't

1045
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,440
Speaker 2: want to them to Mandre. That market has gotten crazy,

1046
00:52:03,480 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 2: but it is instructive because Gladbach, who you know I

1047
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 2: talked about on our euro show thirty three to want

1048
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 2: to be relegated, got dominated by Osburg last weekend and

1049
00:52:11,080 --> 00:52:13,959
Speaker 2: now the market has said you are a terrible soccer team,

1050
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 2: and I agree.

1051
00:52:16,440 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: All right, bej what do you have?

1052
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:19,959
Speaker 4: Well, let's go back to Unyon Berlin.

1053
00:52:20,600 --> 00:52:21,319
Speaker 2: No, not again.

1054
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:23,880
Speaker 4: Apparently they're going to run like gods again this season.

1055
00:52:24,320 --> 00:52:27,479
Speaker 2: Kevin baron tat trick was not on my bingo card

1056
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:28,239
Speaker 2: for the Bundesligo.

1057
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 4: Was Mine's missing two penalties on your bingo card?

1058
00:52:31,320 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 2: That was that was expected because they're playing Unyon. But yeah,

1059
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 2: that was fun.

1060
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 4: I mean, Union goes up to nothing inside ten minutes.

1061
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 4: Two low quality chances just it's just what they do.

1062
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 4: But what I want to hone in on here is

1063
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:46,759
Speaker 4: that game state's very important to what you know, if

1064
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 4: you're betting Unjon Blens, whether people seem to score no

1065
00:52:49,200 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 4: or or unders, especially with them which I'm betting under

1066
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 4: two and a half here against Armstadt uh in matches

1067
00:52:55,400 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 4: that were either zero zero won one. Last season only

1068
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:03,480
Speaker 4: one point eight extra per ninety was the creation total.

1069
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,759
Speaker 4: So if Union Blin goes ahead, they can play in

1070
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 4: transition a lot of more chances are created. They obviously

1071
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 4: sit deeper in a lower block and you know, teams

1072
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,760
Speaker 4: cry a lot more chances against them. Welcome back Darmstadt

1073
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:16,680
Speaker 4: six years in the second division, coming up here to

1074
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 4: the Bundesliga. Theyra club that plays a very very similar

1075
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 4: style to that of unon Blin. It's three four one

1076
00:53:22,800 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 4: two they can tempt. Particularly when they played a lot

1077
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:28,560
Speaker 4: of the bigger sides, you know Hamburger Paderborne in the

1078
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:31,880
Speaker 4: second Division, they would concede sixty sixty five percent possession.

1079
00:53:32,520 --> 00:53:35,640
Speaker 4: They did overperform their XG defensively, only thirty three goals

1080
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:38,920
Speaker 4: loud and thirty four matches thirteen clean sheets. Their plan

1081
00:53:39,000 --> 00:53:41,640
Speaker 4: against Frankfurt was kind of similar to that of what

1082
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:43,399
Speaker 4: Unyon Blin is going to do, which is basically, sit

1083
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,279
Speaker 4: very deep, conceive a lot of possession, sit down, sit

1084
00:53:46,320 --> 00:53:49,120
Speaker 4: in there deep blow block. Outside of one chance, huge

1085
00:53:49,200 --> 00:53:52,760
Speaker 4: chance that Frankfurt converted, Frankfort only took eight other shots

1086
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 4: in one point excuse me, point seven XG on those

1087
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:59,279
Speaker 4: other eight shots, So box entries for the match for

1088
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:02,000
Speaker 4: eleven to eleven. So honestly a pretty decent performance for

1089
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:03,719
Speaker 4: a newly promoted team going on the road to a

1090
00:54:03,719 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 4: team like Frankfurt. So under two and a half is

1091
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:10,080
Speaker 4: sitting at minus one twenty. I only have one point

1092
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:13,479
Speaker 4: nine goals projected, so I think that's a decent price

1093
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 4: for two teams that are going to be very very

1094
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 4: passive and sitting in low blocks.

1095
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: La Liga probably lay it with Bill Boo at home

1096
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:26,719
Speaker 1: looked much better in week two? What about you?

1097
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:34,560
Speaker 4: BJ Barcelona plus one oh six. They played via Real

1098
00:54:34,800 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 4: in February on the road, They won the match one

1099
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:39,840
Speaker 4: nothing and they closed as a minus one forty five favorite.

1100
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 4: What has happened since then that makes any of us

1101
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:48,440
Speaker 4: believe that Barcelona is either a significantly worse team or

1102
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:52,160
Speaker 4: that via Real is significantly better. Oh in that match

1103
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,200
Speaker 4: was a look ahead spot where they were playing Manchester

1104
00:54:55,280 --> 00:54:58,560
Speaker 4: United in the Europa League knockout playoffs, four days from

1105
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:02,880
Speaker 4: them out. Like we've mentioned many times, they got rated

1106
00:55:02,880 --> 00:55:08,480
Speaker 4: this summer. Palla Torres, chiquez Jackson. They're all gone. And

1107
00:55:08,560 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 4: now the problem that's going to exist for via Real

1108
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 4: is that they are a highly highly possessied dominant team

1109
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 4: under Kiks. At the end actually in that Matchkins Barcelona

1110
00:55:17,520 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 4: controlled over fifty percent possession. But Barcelona is a very

1111
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 4: very good counter pressing team second in law of league

1112
00:55:25,080 --> 00:55:27,719
Speaker 4: and passed per defensive action and high turnovers forced nine

1113
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:29,920
Speaker 4: high turnovers. And now the match against for Real. So

1114
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:33,440
Speaker 4: I think the price here on Barcelona is really really

1115
00:55:33,520 --> 00:55:37,279
Speaker 4: low considering what vi Real is at this point. So

1116
00:55:37,800 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 4: I like Barcelona plus one oh five.

1117
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 1: What about you, Anthony and Barcelona, by the way, that

1118
00:55:42,400 --> 00:55:43,480
Speaker 1: was the team I was thinking of when I was

1119
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: talking about deserby Anthony. What about you? Joby's gone, You

1120
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,359
Speaker 1: could just he's got like the Barcelona aesthetic to him,

1121
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:55,839
Speaker 1: you know, and.

1122
00:55:57,760 --> 00:55:59,960
Speaker 2: Anyways, and his system is not all that different from

1123
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:04,280
Speaker 2: what job he likes to do at Barsaye. There are similarities. Yeah,

1124
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 2: I would. I would like to say that the biggest

1125
00:56:07,520 --> 00:56:10,160
Speaker 2: thing with barsas that can they replace Dembele, who actually

1126
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 2: was really good last year and now was gone. That's

1127
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,360
Speaker 2: probably their biggest hole question mark. And you know, obviously

1128
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,320
Speaker 2: think Bousquetes is gone, but we're not the biggest busquts

1129
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,400
Speaker 2: people at this point, although he's tearing up MLS. I

1130
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:24,759
Speaker 2: like Vacano plus a half at home. Look, they lost Iiola,

1131
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:27,160
Speaker 2: but they've kept most of that squad together and they've

1132
00:56:27,160 --> 00:56:30,160
Speaker 2: put together two pretty impressive performances and continue to just

1133
00:56:30,200 --> 00:56:32,919
Speaker 2: get no respect in the market. So I think they're

1134
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 2: still a good, plucky underdog to look to bet in

1135
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,880
Speaker 2: La Liga this season. They get your boys at home,

1136
00:56:41,080 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 2: the Atletico Madrid and so little Madrid Darby to start

1137
00:56:44,320 --> 00:56:47,160
Speaker 2: the season. If you look at it from you know,

1138
00:56:47,239 --> 00:56:50,160
Speaker 2: just like a last season perspective, expect a goal difference

1139
00:56:50,239 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 2: per ninety minutes. This game should be right around a

1140
00:56:53,719 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 2: quarter goal, not a half, and so you're you're paying

1141
00:56:56,880 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 2: a little bit of an attack on you know, i'd

1142
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:01,040
Speaker 2: let you having the you know, the much heavier squad

1143
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: and kind of whatnot. But again by a Kano, there's

1144
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:05,839
Speaker 2: been some penalty luck early in the season for them.

1145
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:07,799
Speaker 2: But this is a team that has now gone on

1146
00:57:07,800 --> 00:57:10,000
Speaker 2: the road the first two weeks and outplayed their opponents

1147
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,320
Speaker 2: al Maria and Granada. Now they come home for the

1148
00:57:12,360 --> 00:57:14,960
Speaker 2: first time. I think they're a little bit cheap plus

1149
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 2: a half against Adletti, who you know. Again, we talked

1150
00:57:18,280 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 2: about Aleti like, if Greasmon just slows down, they're just

1151
00:57:20,640 --> 00:57:24,800
Speaker 2: not that good anymore. And they don't really have gotten

1152
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:28,160
Speaker 2: some good production out of Greaismon so far. But the

1153
00:57:29,160 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 2: actually for ninety, like the whole attack has been just

1154
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 2: what canal Vamura to do?

1155
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 1: Now, well we know what he can do. He can

1156
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,760
Speaker 1: win the Golden Boot at Euro twenty twenty and World

1157
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 1: Cup and the World Cup and probably Euro twenty twenty four. Syria,

1158
00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:49,360
Speaker 1: Ah time, Syria, Anthony, the Motherland. What do you got?

1159
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, something really interesting happened last week with Milan. Christian

1160
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 2: Polistic scored a boot. Yeah, that was kind of fire,

1161
00:57:55,400 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 2: and their attack looked really fun and dynamic. But you

1162
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:00,680
Speaker 2: look at like the box numbers from game and how

1163
00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:02,960
Speaker 2: the midfield performed and how the defense looked, and I

1164
00:58:03,000 --> 00:58:05,600
Speaker 2: thought they look pretty vulnerable. And I still think it's

1165
00:58:05,600 --> 00:58:07,520
Speaker 2: gonna be a problem for them. Now they go up

1166
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:10,120
Speaker 2: against a Torino team which is a pain in the

1167
00:58:10,200 --> 00:58:13,000
Speaker 2: ass to play. They are the worst watch, probably one

1168
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 2: of the two or three worst watches in Italy. They

1169
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 2: make it ugly. They have a very good defensive organizational system,

1170
00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 2: but I think the pressure they're able to apply in

1171
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 2: midfield is going to really cause problems for Milan getting

1172
00:58:24,360 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 2: margin here. So I like Toarino plus one on the

1173
00:58:27,080 --> 00:58:28,400
Speaker 2: road against Milan.

1174
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, that Poofstach goal made the rounds talking about things

1175
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 1: you didn't have on your Bengo card BJ what about you?

1176
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:40,960
Speaker 4: Lazio Genoa both teams to score plus one o five

1177
00:58:41,080 --> 00:58:46,440
Speaker 4: all time. Yike's performance from Lazio against Leche on Sunday

1178
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 4: conceded twenty three shots and one point five expected goals

1179
00:58:50,000 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 4: to what was the worst offensive team in Syria last season. Now,

1180
00:58:54,880 --> 00:58:58,320
Speaker 4: Lazio offensively did make some moves this summer that I

1181
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 4: think in the long run will help them. They bring

1182
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 4: over Daci Kamata from Frankfurt, Tati Castillanos who had a

1183
00:59:04,760 --> 00:59:08,120
Speaker 4: great season with the Droona last season. Hopefully those can

1184
00:59:08,520 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 4: fill the void of Milinkovich Savage leaving for Saudi Arabia both,

1185
00:59:13,040 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 4: but you know, to start with their defense. I mean,

1186
00:59:14,960 --> 00:59:17,880
Speaker 4: twenty nine goals off a forty one expected last season,

1187
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,680
Speaker 4: they're gonna regress heavily as we go throughout this season.

1188
00:59:21,720 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 4: They have made no moves defensively other than signing Hugo Leuris,

1189
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 4: so their defense is magically fixed now. But going up

1190
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 4: against a Genowa team that welcome back after one season

1191
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 4: the Second Division. That one season the second Division one

1192
00:59:38,240 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 4: point eight four x g per ninety. They did bring

1193
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:45,040
Speaker 4: in some some attacking pieces. One of my guys, Ruslan

1194
00:59:45,120 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 4: Malanofski comes over from Marseille, helps helps their attack. Matteo,

1195
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:54,880
Speaker 4: excuse me. Richtigui comes over from t Gray and Argentina.

1196
00:59:54,880 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 4: I apologize for his pronouncing that twelve million dollars price tag,

1197
00:59:58,320 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 4: eleven goals and twenty one appearance in Argentina should help

1198
01:00:01,760 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 4: them offensively. I mean genlemen got absolutely cooked in their

1199
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 4: opener against Fiorentina four goals off of one expected. The

1200
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 4: goalkeeper is a big problem. But both teams score here

1201
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:15,080
Speaker 4: with two defenses that are going to be below average

1202
01:00:15,080 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 4: in Syria. Ah, I think it's too low at plus

1203
01:00:17,280 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 4: one oh five league.

1204
01:00:18,560 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 1: Oh, you're both. You both actually have a play in

1205
01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 1: league with this week, Anthony.

1206
01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:25,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like LEL minus one ten. You can find

1207
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 2: a minus one oh five out there on the road

1208
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:31,080
Speaker 2: against Lorient. They do have a conference league fixture on

1209
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:35,560
Speaker 2: Thursday against a Croatian side, but the first leg is

1210
01:00:35,600 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 2: at home, so the travel concern comes on the back

1211
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:40,080
Speaker 2: end of this trip, and maybe look to play against

1212
01:00:40,080 --> 01:00:42,920
Speaker 2: them next week as they depending on how they rotate

1213
01:00:42,960 --> 01:00:45,160
Speaker 2: through their team here. But I've been really encouraged by

1214
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:46,960
Speaker 2: the early season returns. Lele is a team that we

1215
01:00:47,040 --> 01:00:49,720
Speaker 2: both liked based on their numbers, what they did last

1216
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:52,360
Speaker 2: year in their first year under Fonseka, and they have

1217
01:00:52,440 --> 01:00:54,400
Speaker 2: had two games. They had a draw with Nice that

1218
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 2: was a pretty even match and a nice a road

1219
01:00:56,800 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 2: match at Nice. Given NIE's progression as well, they've really

1220
01:00:59,640 --> 01:01:03,640
Speaker 2: taken us forward. Deserve Bey's assistant actually the manager there

1221
01:01:03,720 --> 01:01:07,680
Speaker 2: now and they rolled not to last week just by

1222
01:01:08,000 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 2: overcoming some red card woes. So I think that they

1223
01:01:11,280 --> 01:01:13,439
Speaker 2: they're a really good team. They're the second best team

1224
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 2: in this league right now, and I think they're underpriced

1225
01:01:16,440 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 2: against a Lorient side that had very very mediocre, shall

1226
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 2: we say, underlying performances last year and has had a

1227
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 2: continually mediocre star to the season thus far.

1228
01:01:27,800 --> 01:01:30,280
Speaker 1: BJ real quick and then we'll get to our underdogs.

1229
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 4: Yep, Monico minus one twenty going up against Nons who

1230
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 4: barely survived relegation last season. Nons sold their best player,

1231
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 4: Ludovic Blass to Wren. It was a point four to

1232
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 4: eight actually plus expected assist attacker last season. They didn't

1233
01:01:43,200 --> 01:01:47,000
Speaker 4: really do much to replace him. Monico was a very

1234
01:01:47,120 --> 01:01:49,240
Speaker 4: very good offense in league on last season one point

1235
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 4: six to three xtally per ninety. They did lose some

1236
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:56,720
Speaker 4: pieces of bringing guys like Nisakaria, Slusu and single from

1237
01:01:56,800 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 4: chort Torino should help them retool. And Monica was a

1238
01:02:00,280 --> 01:02:01,760
Speaker 4: better team on the road last season than we were

1239
01:02:01,760 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 4: at home plus six point five expected gold to French

1240
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:06,760
Speaker 4: on the road versus plus two point four at home.

1241
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 4: So I think that they are a little undervalued and

1242
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:10,560
Speaker 4: minus one twenty.

1243
01:02:10,840 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 1: Okay, underdogs. We really knocked it out of the park

1244
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:18,480
Speaker 1: last week six and the week before Yep, we're due.

1245
01:02:18,520 --> 01:02:21,680
Speaker 2: Baby Mormon did score first, so we basically won that one.

1246
01:02:21,880 --> 01:02:25,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was we were feeling pretty live for a minute.

1247
01:02:25,560 --> 01:02:26,680
Speaker 1: It got a couple of texts.

1248
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 2: As a friend of the Prince said something like this

1249
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:33,000
Speaker 2: is fun or something.

1250
01:02:33,760 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that was one of the texts. All right, uh,

1251
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:37,920
Speaker 1: what's up with you?

1252
01:02:37,960 --> 01:02:42,480
Speaker 4: BJ al Maria plus two thirty on the road against Cadiz.

1253
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 4: I mean Cadiz got torch by Barcelona last week. Almeria

1254
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 4: put up a good performance against Real Madrid. They took

1255
01:02:52,000 --> 01:02:55,880
Speaker 4: twenty shots against Real Madrid. It's impressive. Cadiz, I mean they,

1256
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 4: I mean I faded them in the opening match. If

1257
01:02:58,640 --> 01:03:02,000
Speaker 4: you remember Alavese, it was one of the more boring

1258
01:03:02,040 --> 01:03:04,960
Speaker 4: matches you've ever seen in your life. Basically nothing. Kadiz

1259
01:03:05,000 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 4: scored off a set piece and then just kind of

1260
01:03:06,680 --> 01:03:08,960
Speaker 4: held on for the rest of them of the match.

1261
01:03:09,920 --> 01:03:14,840
Speaker 4: Al Miria they're a horrible defensive team, absolutely atrocious, but

1262
01:03:14,880 --> 01:03:18,760
Speaker 4: they're at least somewhat respectable offensively, unlike Cadiz. Al Mirio

1263
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:21,280
Speaker 4: was one point two actually for ninety last season. It's

1264
01:03:21,280 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 4: only point zero two lower than what Seville was, so

1265
01:03:24,200 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 4: this is a halfway decent offense. They did just sell

1266
01:03:26,360 --> 01:03:30,800
Speaker 4: balaltaure to Adelanta, but they bring in Ibrahim Coone. They

1267
01:03:30,840 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 4: brought in the Colombian Luis Suarez. No, not the Urguayan

1268
01:03:34,960 --> 01:03:38,280
Speaker 4: Luis Suarez to the club halfway through last season. He

1269
01:03:38,320 --> 01:03:40,800
Speaker 4: had a decent performance, so those two attackers should make

1270
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 4: up for bal Tore, who only played fourteen nineties last season,

1271
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 4: so it's not like he was everything to their offense.

1272
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:48,000
Speaker 4: So Cadie should not be favored here. They were the

1273
01:03:48,040 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 4: worst team in La Legal last season outside of l Chase,

1274
01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 4: So give me al Maria plus two thirty.

1275
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:56,600
Speaker 2: And he's already balal Tore has already hurt Fradalanta. It's

1276
01:03:56,680 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 2: very upsetting.

1277
01:03:59,320 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 1: I'll take a shot at for Not in a force

1278
01:04:01,880 --> 01:04:07,240
Speaker 1: the heat to one against Manchester United. This is a

1279
01:04:07,240 --> 01:04:10,200
Speaker 1: bed against United. I'm just poking and honestly, if the

1280
01:04:10,200 --> 01:04:11,919
Speaker 1: problems are real, and I'll take an eight to one

1281
01:04:12,400 --> 01:04:15,000
Speaker 1: underdog to do it. I know they were at home,

1282
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:16,439
Speaker 1: but they were at home against Wolves in a match

1283
01:04:16,480 --> 01:04:19,360
Speaker 1: that they should have lost in against a bigger underdog

1284
01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 1: than Forrest was at the time. So I think there

1285
01:04:21,720 --> 01:04:24,200
Speaker 1: are some some things that United needs to get sorted out.

1286
01:04:24,200 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 1: I think that they will eventually, but right now is

1287
01:04:26,040 --> 01:04:28,040
Speaker 1: the time to try to try to beat them. In

1288
01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:31,200
Speaker 1: a Forrest has shown some bite, so give me Not

1289
01:04:31,360 --> 01:04:33,800
Speaker 1: in a forest. The attack has looked all right. The

1290
01:04:33,840 --> 01:04:36,960
Speaker 1: Manchester United defense is not Anthony. Let's go make it

1291
01:04:36,960 --> 01:04:38,920
Speaker 1: over nine, baby, I will do just.

1292
01:04:38,920 --> 01:04:43,120
Speaker 2: That to five to one on the road at Milan.

1293
01:04:43,240 --> 01:04:44,920
Speaker 2: I just talked about this match a minute ago, Like

1294
01:04:45,280 --> 01:04:49,320
Speaker 2: I do think that there's like a breaking point for

1295
01:04:49,400 --> 01:04:53,160
Speaker 2: how long Elitch can get away with this or some

1296
01:04:53,640 --> 01:04:55,640
Speaker 2: Urich can get away with this in terms of his

1297
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:57,680
Speaker 2: system and kind of getting the most out of what's

1298
01:04:57,720 --> 01:05:00,400
Speaker 2: pretty average talent. But again, it's a Trina team that

1299
01:05:00,520 --> 01:05:04,040
Speaker 2: was just a perfectly fine, average Seria side. And unless

1300
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:07,200
Speaker 2: you think that Milan has taken a step forward into

1301
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 2: that upper echelon of teams like Napoli and Inter who

1302
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:14,120
Speaker 2: frequently would be plus one against there minus one against

1303
01:05:14,120 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 2: the Threno side, then this line should be three quarters

1304
01:05:16,400 --> 01:05:18,400
Speaker 2: or a half, and instead you're getting the full goal

1305
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,400
Speaker 2: and you're getting the five to one when I have

1306
01:05:20,440 --> 01:05:23,640
Speaker 2: this closer to four. So I like toino here. They're

1307
01:05:23,760 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 2: very strong defensively and that will make this game a

1308
01:05:27,360 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 2: high variance type affair.

1309
01:05:29,440 --> 01:05:31,680
Speaker 1: There you go one hundred and seventy seven to one.

1310
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 1: That parlay pops out at We'll see if we can

1311
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:37,480
Speaker 1: break the schneid. Our best bets Premier League best bets

1312
01:05:37,480 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: have been going much better though. Five and one, Yeah,

1313
01:05:40,600 --> 01:05:42,800
Speaker 1: five and one to start the season, So we'll see

1314
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:46,920
Speaker 1: if we can keep this hot run going. Anthony, what

1315
01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:47,840
Speaker 1: do you have for us?

1316
01:05:48,240 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, Everton and Wolves both teams to score. We'll grate

1317
01:05:50,880 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 2: it at minus one ten since that's the consensus market

1318
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 2: price right now. Two defenses that have been among the

1319
01:05:56,200 --> 01:05:59,160
Speaker 2: worst in the entire league to start the year. You know,

1320
01:05:59,160 --> 01:06:01,640
Speaker 2: we've discussed ever and Wolves at length here on this show.

1321
01:06:01,840 --> 01:06:04,600
Speaker 2: We know that both attacks have vastly underperformed x GI

1322
01:06:04,800 --> 01:06:06,840
Speaker 2: for more than a full season now, which you know

1323
01:06:06,880 --> 01:06:10,040
Speaker 2: makes me think it's maybe not just locker regression, but

1324
01:06:10,080 --> 01:06:11,480
Speaker 2: it just the level.

1325
01:06:11,240 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 1: Presidentition talent, the presidence of Neil Mopai.

1326
01:06:13,360 --> 01:06:17,800
Speaker 2: Yeah exactly, and Wolves not having any striker. But again,

1327
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:20,360
Speaker 2: the poor defenses and the way that both of these

1328
01:06:20,360 --> 01:06:22,600
Speaker 2: teams are changing how they play, with Dice being more

1329
01:06:22,640 --> 01:06:26,840
Speaker 2: aggressive and with Wolves changing with O'Neill into more of

1330
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:29,960
Speaker 2: a transitional back and forth for neta k Wire team.

1331
01:06:30,280 --> 01:06:33,320
Speaker 2: This is not Patigi ball anymore. This is different and

1332
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:35,600
Speaker 2: this will lead to goals. So I like the minus

1333
01:06:35,600 --> 01:06:36,760
Speaker 2: one ten both teams to score.

1334
01:06:37,120 --> 01:06:39,840
Speaker 1: I'm going arsenal team total over two and a half

1335
01:06:40,280 --> 01:06:44,160
Speaker 1: minus one fifteen against Fulham. We spoke all season long

1336
01:06:44,280 --> 01:06:46,720
Speaker 1: last year about how this Fulham defense was due just

1337
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:49,760
Speaker 1: to be caved in near the bottom of the Premier

1338
01:06:49,840 --> 01:06:51,960
Speaker 1: League or at the bottom, depending on the extreme model

1339
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 1: you looked at all season. Despite that, they've finished in

1340
01:06:55,080 --> 01:06:59,400
Speaker 1: tenth place and things have not gotten better for the

1341
01:06:59,400 --> 01:07:01,840
Speaker 1: Cottagers so far. To start this season. They got torn

1342
01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:04,600
Speaker 1: to shreds by Everdon in terms of at least giving

1343
01:07:04,640 --> 01:07:07,360
Speaker 1: up big scoring chances. They still pitched a clean sheet

1344
01:07:07,440 --> 01:07:10,240
Speaker 1: somehow and what will likely go down as the biggest

1345
01:07:10,320 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 1: kind of clean sheet miracle of the season in match

1346
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:17,360
Speaker 1: week one, and then they got beat down against Brentford

1347
01:07:17,400 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 1: again struggle stopping the Bees. Now they take a huge

1348
01:07:21,960 --> 01:07:24,320
Speaker 1: step up in class. They go to Arsenal to take

1349
01:07:24,360 --> 01:07:26,760
Speaker 1: on an offense that was held in check by Crystal

1350
01:07:26,800 --> 01:07:30,640
Speaker 1: Palace relatively held in check by Nottingham Forest. I think

1351
01:07:30,680 --> 01:07:34,720
Speaker 1: that this is a great opportunity for Arsenal to name it,

1352
01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:37,120
Speaker 1: put up a crooked number and start to get their

1353
01:07:37,160 --> 01:07:40,720
Speaker 1: offensive form going. So team total over two and a

1354
01:07:40,760 --> 01:07:42,400
Speaker 1: half minus one fifteen I think is a good number

1355
01:07:42,400 --> 01:07:44,200
Speaker 1: if you want to chase three and a half or

1356
01:07:44,240 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 1: even four and a half. Go for it, because I

1357
01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:48,320
Speaker 1: think that this is a could be a football scorer

1358
01:07:48,400 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 1: for Arsenal BJ.

1359
01:07:50,200 --> 01:07:53,160
Speaker 4: What do you have loo Tintown plus one and a

1360
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:58,960
Speaker 4: half one fifteen at Chelsea Friday night lights? Listen. Chelsea

1361
01:07:59,680 --> 01:08:02,320
Speaker 4: may end up being a top three or four team

1362
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:04,320
Speaker 4: in the Premier League when this is all said and done,

1363
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:06,600
Speaker 4: but the state that they're in right now, given the

1364
01:08:06,640 --> 01:08:10,160
Speaker 4: amount of roster overhaul bringing in a new manager, it's

1365
01:08:10,160 --> 01:08:13,280
Speaker 4: going to take some time for Chelsea to become one

1366
01:08:13,320 --> 01:08:15,600
Speaker 4: of those top four teams in the Premier League. And

1367
01:08:15,680 --> 01:08:18,840
Speaker 4: Lutontown they were horrible against Brighton and the opener, but

1368
01:08:19,920 --> 01:08:23,360
Speaker 4: Chelsea now is sitting around minus five hundred, which is

1369
01:08:23,760 --> 01:08:27,840
Speaker 4: higher marked than what Brighton closed at against Lutontown. You

1370
01:08:27,880 --> 01:08:30,519
Speaker 4: cannot tell me right now that Brighton is a worse

1371
01:08:30,560 --> 01:08:33,599
Speaker 4: team than Chelsea or that the market has downgraded Lutontown

1372
01:08:33,720 --> 01:08:37,160
Speaker 4: this significantly after just one match. Loutontown's had two weeks

1373
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:39,439
Speaker 4: to prepare for this one. They play a style that's

1374
01:08:39,640 --> 01:08:42,240
Speaker 4: very similar to what Brentford has done, although they don't

1375
01:08:42,240 --> 01:08:44,400
Speaker 4: have the type of quality and talent that the Bees do,

1376
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:46,559
Speaker 4: but they'll play a five to three to two. They

1377
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:49,880
Speaker 4: will press you incredibly intensely and they will not go

1378
01:08:49,960 --> 01:08:53,360
Speaker 4: down without a fight. So give me Lutontown plus one

1379
01:08:53,360 --> 01:08:55,320
Speaker 4: and a half. I'm going to keep fading Chelsea, who

1380
01:08:55,360 --> 01:08:57,760
Speaker 4: was a minus three expected goal differential team last season

1381
01:08:57,760 --> 01:09:01,160
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. It takes a little to generate

1382
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:05,479
Speaker 4: this much market respect when you were just an average team.

1383
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:08,639
Speaker 4: So Chelsea may may very well turn this thing around,

1384
01:09:08,960 --> 01:09:11,519
Speaker 4: but I'm going to keep fading them until they do.

1385
01:09:11,920 --> 01:09:14,360
Speaker 1: There you have it, another episode of Wonder Goal is

1386
01:09:14,400 --> 01:09:17,240
Speaker 1: in the books. Thanks again to our sponsors BET three

1387
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:19,479
Speaker 1: six five. Thank you to cal Dara Lab Thank you

1388
01:09:19,520 --> 01:09:23,360
Speaker 1: to anyone who's left a review in the past few days,

1389
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 1: our producers. Thank you to our producers. First of all, no,

1390
01:09:27,400 --> 01:09:30,479
Speaker 1: I'm at etc. But they do remind us to remind

1391
01:09:30,520 --> 01:09:32,920
Speaker 1: you to do so I never do it. But if

1392
01:09:32,920 --> 01:09:37,000
Speaker 1: you do like or subscribe and leave a review five

1393
01:09:37,120 --> 01:09:39,839
Speaker 1: stars whatever. We do hold a bunch of contests throughout

1394
01:09:39,920 --> 01:09:43,240
Speaker 1: football soccer, like you know, the busy season of sports,

1395
01:09:43,320 --> 01:09:46,519
Speaker 1: so if you do leave reviews, you usually are automatically

1396
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:49,000
Speaker 1: entered in that so please do it. Be sure to

1397
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:52,520
Speaker 1: listen to the other podcasts on the Action Network BBOC

1398
01:09:52,720 --> 01:09:54,519
Speaker 1: Big Bets on campus is back with a bunch of

1399
01:09:54,520 --> 01:09:58,519
Speaker 1: college football. We will see a lot of NFL stuff men,

1400
01:09:58,560 --> 01:10:02,160
Speaker 1: it's hockey, basketball, etc. Sports are coming back after a

1401
01:10:02,240 --> 01:10:06,040
Speaker 1: summer of betting on the cricket, betting on Aussie rules.

1402
01:10:06,200 --> 01:10:08,599
Speaker 1: We also have the US Open coming. If anyone's going,

1403
01:10:08,640 --> 01:10:11,439
Speaker 1: A few of us will be there, not BJ, so

1404
01:10:11,960 --> 01:10:13,400
Speaker 1: be sure to drop my mind. I'll be there for

1405
01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:16,000
Speaker 1: BJ Cunningham, for Anthony Dubundo. I'm Michael Leeboff. Be sure

1406
01:10:16,000 --> 01:10:19,160
Speaker 1: to bet Tommy Paul to win the US Open. We'll

1407
01:10:19,200 --> 01:10:19,920
Speaker 1: see you next time.

1408
01:10:26,920 --> 01:10:31,439
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1409
01:10:31,439 --> 01:10:34,240
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1410
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Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler