1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan 2 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: Duel Football Seasons. Here no better place to get in 3 00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: on the action. FanDuel app is safe, You get paid fast, 4 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,720 Speaker 1: A lot of ways to play the spread, the money line, 5 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff over unders, 6 00:00:23,320 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 1: jump into the action, same game. Parlays are my favorite. 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fan 8 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: Duel app today. All right, guys, instant reaction. We're gonna 9 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: talk about three things. One Cliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray in 10 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 1: the Arizona Cardinals win. Two Christian McCaffrey just got traded 11 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 1: to the forty nine ers. And three a thought in 12 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: the Lakers Clippers game, which isn't over yet, but I 13 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: have a thought. Let's start with Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray. 14 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 1: They blow up in the sideline, so it appeared that 15 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: Kyler Murray. I'm not a lip reader, but I could 16 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:15,320 Speaker 1: tell calm the f down. He yelled at Cliff Kingsbury. 17 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: So I think something that we know to be true. 18 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: People have a lot of courage on social media, but 19 00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: I've been doing what I've been doing for thirty years. 20 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: I am considered polarizing. I don't think I've had three 21 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 1: people ever come up and be rude to me. People 22 00:01:34,600 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: are overwhelmingly kind and gracious and thoughtful. People don't like confrontation. 23 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: That's not who normal people, that's not what normal people 24 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: act like. And the reason I bring this up, Bill 25 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: Maherr once said the same thing. He was interviewed on 26 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 1: some show, and he said, you know, he goes in 27 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:58,280 Speaker 1: twenty five years of being politically polarizing, I've probably had 28 00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: one person come up and be rude. People don't like confrontation, 29 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: mostly because people are normal, but in sports, because of that, 30 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 1: people don't like confrontation, so they're uncomfortable seeing confrontation. Folks, 31 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: Sports is all about collisions, confrontation, arguments, yelling volume it's 32 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 1: not your job. And when Kyler and Cliff have a 33 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: moment that happens constantly, we just see more things than 34 00:02:33,040 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 1: we've ever seen. That's football. Hell, my high school coach 35 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: yelled at me one time, you are effing uncoachable with seventeen. 36 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: He's screaming at me. You know, a minute later, I'm 37 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: throwing a game winning touchdown. I don't remember that, but 38 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: the point being, that's what sports is about it's live. 39 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:58,919 Speaker 1: You don't get duovers. You're not an actor with thirty 40 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: eight takes. It's live. Careers are on the line, million 41 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: dollars at stake. Shit happens, people yell. I don't have 42 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 1: a problem with it. This stuff's been happening forever. We 43 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,919 Speaker 1: didn't have forty five cameras in stadiums. You see everything now, 44 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: So that's the first thing. Secondly, outside of maybe the 45 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:24,919 Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, maybe the Ravens, Chargers, Bengals, 46 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:30,040 Speaker 1: minimum twenty four, twenty five teams in this league are 47 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: better tomorrow with Kyler Murray as quarterback. His mobility is insane. 48 00:03:36,480 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: He throws a beautiful ball, he's accurate, he's got touched. 49 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: I wish he was taller, but you know what, I 50 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 1: wish Tom Brady moved better. You don't have to love 51 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: everything about Kyler, but people have been defending prickly illloof 52 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:59,880 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers for fifteen years. Kyler is a star airs. 53 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 1: It just won't treat him like one, putting Adendams in contracts, 54 00:04:04,640 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: making it public, calling him out. Twenty five teams in 55 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 1: this league are better tomorrow with Kyler Murray. Look around 56 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: the league right now. You know, maybe maybe Philadelphia would say, 57 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 1: now we're gon, We're gonna let this Jalen Hurts thing 58 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: play out in Kansas City with Mahomes, in Baltimore with 59 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:28,560 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, and the Chargers with Justin Herbert, Cincinnati, Joe Burrow, 60 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes come on man twenty four, twenty 61 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: five teams if there was an opportunity, would make a 62 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 1: run at him. Stop stop the mobility, the accuracy, the 63 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: back shoulder throws. We don't know if his coach can coach. 64 00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,360 Speaker 1: His coach had a losing record in college with Patrick 65 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,880 Speaker 1: Mahomes as quarterback. There's things I know about Arizona. Roster's 66 00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 1: got ballers everywhere, speed everywhere, playmakers everywhere. Kyder's super talented. 67 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: The thing I don't know this Cliff Kingsbury a good coach, 68 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: and after three years and his college career, my answer 69 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:15,520 Speaker 1: is he's certainly not. Upper crust is the middle of 70 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: the pack. I think we'd all say, maybe you can 71 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 1: keep barking about Kyler Murray, but if you've been defending 72 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers for ten years and the passive aggressive nonsense, 73 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: you've got to understand stars act differently, they should probably 74 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: be treated differently, and most teams in this league, if 75 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: Aaron and Kyler were available, would take it today, all right. 76 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: Second story, Christian McCaffrey, this broke just a couple of 77 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: minutes ago. Has been traded to the San Francisco forty 78 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 1: nine Ers. Details later. I think this is a another sign, 79 00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,600 Speaker 1: and I think the Niners in philadel are the two 80 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 1: most talented teams in the NFC. I think this is 81 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 1: another sign that the forty nine ers believe with Jimmy 82 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 1: Garoppolo upright, they're a super Bowl team. You don't. They've 83 00:06:12,960 --> 00:06:16,799 Speaker 1: already given up three first round picks for Trey Lance. Okay, 84 00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 1: they're giving up more picks for Christian McCaffrey. You do that, 85 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: you're putting your chips all in, Meaning this GM and 86 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: this coach believe this is a super Bowl team. I 87 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:35,119 Speaker 1: think it's the right move. Listen, Buffalo and Kansas City 88 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: in the AFC are absolutely the two best teams this morning, tonight, 89 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: in the next twenty four hours, Philadelphia appears to be 90 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 1: the best team. San Francisco is the most talented. They 91 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: just had eleven starters out last week. McCaffrey added to 92 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:01,840 Speaker 1: this roster. They're telling you we're not worried about the future. 93 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: This is a super Bowl winning team with Jimmy Garoppolo 94 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: playing quarterback. You don't give up draft capital more draft 95 00:07:12,760 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: capital because you think you could make the playoffs. They're 96 00:07:16,800 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: looking around and going Elijah Mitchell's coming back, Trent Williams 97 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: coming back, all these weapons, let's add another one. Go 98 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: all in. I think it's the right move. I've said this. 99 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 1: The Rams push their chips all in. They want a 100 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Now what happens when you do that? You 101 00:07:35,240 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 1: get cluster injuries. They're thin on the offensive line. Andrew 102 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: Whitworth retires, Brian Allen, the center gets hurt all of 103 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: a sudden, it looks really, really ugly. I thought the 104 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: Rams may go in on Christian McCaffrey, but like the Niners, 105 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: they don't have a lot of first round picks. But 106 00:07:54,480 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: I've said this before. Aggressive wins in sports. You can 107 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:05,360 Speaker 1: sit back, you can wait, but you win a Super 108 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:09,040 Speaker 1: Bowl like less need and Matt Stafford and Sean McVay did, 109 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: it gives you like a three year safety net, you 110 00:08:14,120 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: know what I mean. There's a lot of pressure there's 111 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: billions of dollars at stake. Kyle Shanahan's a good coach. 112 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: But you start looking at that Trey Lanz situation. You 113 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,920 Speaker 1: don't know what the future is in San Francisco. But 114 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 1: with Garoppolo healthy, you know what the present is. It's 115 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:35,320 Speaker 1: Philadelphia and you probably vying for the NFC championship. You 116 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,600 Speaker 1: have no idea what Trey Lanz is could be great, 117 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,160 Speaker 1: don't know you know what Garoppolo is like the move? 118 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: All right, I want to talk about Lakers Clippers now. 119 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 1: As I'm recording this, the game is not over. It's halftime. 120 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 1: Lakers have played well, but it's very interesting. In the 121 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 1: first game and a half, Warriors four quarters, Clippers two quarters, 122 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 1: the Lakers are shooting seven team of sixty four from 123 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:03,959 Speaker 1: three point land. It's like twenty four to twenty five, 124 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 1: maybe a little less. This was a team that strongly 125 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 1: considered trading Westbrook four Buddy healed and giving up some 126 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 1: draft picks and what have you. One of the reasons 127 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 1: I think it's important to make that move and not wait. 128 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:27,680 Speaker 1: Number one, Los Angeles is a busy, distracted market. Nobody 129 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:30,040 Speaker 1: cares about the future. They care about now, and the 130 00:09:30,120 --> 00:09:32,599 Speaker 1: Lakers have always had an advantage on the rest of 131 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 1: the league that the NBA is mostly a winter league, 132 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: and the weather here and the winners great. As sports 133 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:43,600 Speaker 1: and entertainment have converged, obviously, a lot of athletes and 134 00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: agents more than ever want their players in LA. I mean, hell, 135 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 1: the Clippers now can get Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. 136 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: The Clippers can get Taylou the coach. The Lakers still 137 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 1: have a bigger brand, and so if you look at 138 00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: the Lakers schedule, it's backlow. They get much easier games 139 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:09,200 Speaker 1: before the trade deadline. What they would like to do is, 140 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 1: you know, at the end of the season, if the 141 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: Lakers are still viable, you've got a lot of the 142 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: bigger Laker games. When people start watching the NBA, that's 143 00:10:17,480 --> 00:10:22,000 Speaker 1: after the NFL season ends February March April May. So 144 00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: they have a lot of big Laker games at that 145 00:10:25,120 --> 00:10:29,160 Speaker 1: juncture of the season. Early in the season, Utah Jazz, 146 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 1: you know you've got you've got some beatable teams. You've 147 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,880 Speaker 1: got the Spurs, Portland Trailblazers a couple of times this 148 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:41,960 Speaker 1: early season schedule, there's some really winnable games. Now's the 149 00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:45,520 Speaker 1: time to get Buddy healed in. Can you make this 150 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: move at the trade deadline? How long before Buddy healed 151 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 1: the chemistry with Lebron that takes fifteen twenty games to 152 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: work right. Well, the schedule toughens, the Lakers will be 153 00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: playing many of the best Eastern and Western Conference teams. 154 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: I just don't think with this roster. Cross your fingers 155 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 1: on Lebron and eight's health will be able to be 156 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: competitive later in the season. Your wins are early in 157 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 1: the season. Get Buddy healed in fast. You're giving up w's, 158 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: You're giving up winnable games, so it'll be interesting through 159 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: six quarters. The Lakers are shooting twenty four. Lebron after 160 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: the Warriors game, and he said it with a smile. 161 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:27,080 Speaker 1: He said, you know, we don't have a lot of 162 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 1: great shooters. We're getting a lot of great looks, but 163 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:36,280 Speaker 1: maybe because our opponents want us to get great looks, 164 00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: meaning people are begging us to shoot threes. I watched 165 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,079 Speaker 1: the Warriors game. I watched the first half of the 166 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:47,280 Speaker 1: Clippers game. I believe Tyler and Steve Kerr wanted designed 167 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:51,600 Speaker 1: a defense to allow the Lakers to get three point shots. 168 00:11:52,520 --> 00:12:00,559 Speaker 1: So Arizona I'll take Kyler, despite his sometimes prickly personality. 169 00:12:00,920 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: McCaffrey to the forty nine ers. They're all in now. 170 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,719 Speaker 1: I believe they should be Lakers. Make the move. You've 171 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:13,160 Speaker 1: got the Dodgers making move. USC's hiring Lincoln Riley, you got, 172 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,400 Speaker 1: you got, the Rams are going all in. The Chargers 173 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:20,199 Speaker 1: went and got Khalil Mack. Lakers you've always been to 174 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,960 Speaker 1: make a big move team in la. I think it's time. 175 00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: Now let's go to chat Millman Action Network the CCO. 176 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,839 Speaker 1: We're doing sharp and square. But first, let me tell 177 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,319 Speaker 1: you about my friends at LinkedIn. These days, every new 178 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,680 Speaker 1: potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for 179 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: your small business. 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Small businesses rate LinkedIn 189 00:13:16,120 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 1: jobs number one in America, number one in America and 190 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 1: delivering quality hires against leading competitors. LinkedIn Jobs helps you 191 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:27,720 Speaker 1: find the qualified candidates you want faster and for free. 192 00:13:27,760 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: Post your job at LinkedIn dot com, slashcolin, LinkedIn dot com, 193 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:38,439 Speaker 1: slash coolin for free, terms and conditions apply off a 194 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:43,640 Speaker 1: very hot week in both college and pro I tore 195 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: it up Chad Millman CCO Action Network. All of our 196 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:51,560 Speaker 1: odds presented by FanDuel. We call it Sharper Square. So listen, 197 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: I went big underdogs last week. Scores of NFL games 198 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: chatter down seven and a half points in two years, 199 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: big plays are down thirty, meaning I like points. We're 200 00:14:03,320 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 1: gonna get fewer points in these games. So I'm gonna 201 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 1: go big dogs this weekend. So you're ready for my 202 00:14:08,200 --> 00:14:13,679 Speaker 1: first Sharper Square, Let's do it. Steelers at the Dolphins. 203 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,320 Speaker 1: So a lot of people feel like, oh, Pittsburgh got 204 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 1: very very lucky, very very lucky. If you look at 205 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: what Pittsburgh's doing with Kenny Pickett, he's okay. They're gonna 206 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,440 Speaker 1: put a lot of pressure on Tua if he plays 207 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: I do not believe the Steelers and the Dolphins is 208 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:39,160 Speaker 1: going to provide us a wild shootout. I'm gonna probably 209 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: take Pittsburgh in seven. I took Pittsburgh against Tampa. If 210 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,360 Speaker 1: you go back to the Buffalo loss, they threw for 211 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: three hundred and fifty yards. I think the Steelers hang 212 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 1: with him lose, but I'll take seven. Sharper square. Let 213 00:14:54,280 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: me ask you a question. Yeah, there are you know, 214 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: twelve games this week, thirteen games whatever it is with 215 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: the buye, so there will be an even number of 216 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,480 Speaker 1: underdogs and an even number of There will be the 217 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,320 Speaker 1: same number of underdogs and favorites of all the games 218 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: you can choose. You're going to choose a game where 219 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: she was expected to start, and if he does, he's 220 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 1: coming off of a pretty brutal concussion. It hasn't played 221 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 1: in weeks. We think it'll be Kenny Pickett coming back 222 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:32,160 Speaker 1: from a concussion, but we still aren't confirmed. We think 223 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:37,600 Speaker 1: that the Steelers defensive backfield is still decimated. You can 224 00:15:37,680 --> 00:15:41,440 Speaker 1: choose any game, and you're choosing this one. Well, I 225 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: give you a seven a week. I didn't say it 226 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: was the greatest pick ever. You don't like it, not 227 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,120 Speaker 1: only is this not a Sharper square pick. This is 228 00:15:50,160 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: a nobody's even talking about this game. I would say 229 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: I agree with you that the Steelers are the right 230 00:15:56,600 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 1: side because it's a big underdog. Mike Tomlin talked about 231 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: this last week right against the Bucks. What I say, 232 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: I said, take Mike Tomlin. Take the Bucks at plus 233 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 1: eight and a half, same situation, good team. We don't 234 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:16,880 Speaker 1: know what we have in Miami right now. The Steelers 235 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: are consistently a team that covers these big numbers. Yes, 236 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: Steelers are going to be the right side, not necessarily 237 00:16:25,960 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 1: the sharp side, but the right side. Okay, forty Niners 238 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 1: coming off an embarrassing loss, though not a highly emotional loss. 239 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:39,360 Speaker 1: Kansas City coming off the big game of the year, 240 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: a slight pullback. Niners eleven starters out last week, get 241 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: three crucial starters back. Chiefs are the worst tackling team 242 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:52,040 Speaker 1: in the league. What is San Francisco? Great yards after 243 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,160 Speaker 1: the catch? I love the number at three. I'd still 244 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: take the Niners at two plus two and a half. 245 00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 1: Sharper square. Now we're talking. Now, we're talking. Yeah, this 246 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: is sharp, so sharp, it's gone to it's opened at three. 247 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:11,719 Speaker 1: It's moved to two and a half. All of the 248 00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 1: tickets are in Kansas City and this number still moved down. 249 00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: That tells you that the Wise Guys are on San 250 00:17:19,840 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 1: Francisco right now. What's really interesting is that the tickets 251 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 1: have been on Kansas City by a preposterous number eighty 252 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 1: eighty five percent the entire week, and the bookmakers knew 253 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 1: they couldn't move it to three and a half because 254 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,639 Speaker 1: they knew if they did, the Wise Guys were going 255 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: to come in on San Francisco. And it didn't matter. 256 00:17:37,840 --> 00:17:40,480 Speaker 1: They came in on San Francisco at plus three. As 257 00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 1: you know, Colin I co host a podcast on the 258 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: Volume podcast network called The Favorites with my co host 259 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. So lately we've been doing the show live 260 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,520 Speaker 1: on AMP because Volume has a deal with AMP right 261 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,720 Speaker 1: and it's been super fun and we're getting these live 262 00:17:56,840 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: reactions now from professional betters as we're doing the show 263 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 1: talking about games. So on Tuesday, we're doing the show 264 00:18:04,560 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: and we're getting texts from professional betters. We're talking about 265 00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: the Niners and they are saying, you gotta take the Niners, 266 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: You gotta take the Niners, You gotta take the Niners. 267 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 1: This was Tuesday when it was at plus three. So 268 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: immediately we hit the Niners at plus three and we 269 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 1: talked about it again today. We still like the Niners 270 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 1: at plus two and a half. Okay, I often look 271 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 1: for things that are sustainable. Jets plus one and a 272 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 1: half at the Bronchos. So, as Greg ko Selter told 273 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,400 Speaker 1: me Thursday on Fox, the Jets front seven is real. 274 00:18:38,800 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: It's sustainable, it's consistent. They also have a lockdown corner 275 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:48,040 Speaker 1: and DJ read a second excellent corner. The Bronchos are 276 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:53,760 Speaker 1: now backups across their offensive line and guys who really 277 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 1: aren't very highly graded. This is really low scoring. I 278 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 1: said it last week when I picked the Pack to 279 00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 1: lose to the Jets. I said, this is a real team. 280 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: They're not letting Zach Wilson get in the way of 281 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:13,040 Speaker 1: the team. He only at eighteen attempts. I think the 282 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,840 Speaker 1: Jets are a better team. I think they'll win again, 283 00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 1: and I think they'll win seven to ten points. I 284 00:19:20,560 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 1: think what they're doing sustainable. I think it's a bad 285 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,200 Speaker 1: matchup with their front and the Broncos on line. Sharper square, Yeah, 286 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 1: it's totally sharp. This number has moved down it's moving 287 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: in the Jets direction. It's not just moving in the 288 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,800 Speaker 1: Jets direction because of what the Broncos did in prime 289 00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:39,720 Speaker 1: time or because of what Russell Wilson has been doing. 290 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:43,120 Speaker 1: The wise guys are invested in the Jets. They were 291 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: on the Jets last week, as you noted, against the 292 00:19:45,920 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: Packers at plus seven and a half and consistently moving 293 00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,360 Speaker 1: that number down. It's an interesting game if you dig 294 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:56,359 Speaker 1: deeper on the numbers. Zach Wilson is really a terrible quarterback, 295 00:19:56,720 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: and when he's in the pocket, his QB rating is 296 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 1: very good. When he's under pressure and blitz his QB 297 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 1: rating is three point four. So when you say they 298 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: are not letting him get in the way, they are 299 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:08,560 Speaker 1: doing their best to keep him out of the way. 300 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 1: Like Joe Flacco right now is a better quarterback for 301 00:20:12,359 --> 00:20:15,320 Speaker 1: the Jets than Zach Wilson, But they have all the 302 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: other elements you talked about, Like this defense is for real, 303 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,440 Speaker 1: Sauce Gardner is for real. The biggest challenge right now. 304 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: The Broncos defense is really good, so can they stop 305 00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,200 Speaker 1: Breeze Hall? And I think that what you're going to 306 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: find is that there is a point in this number 307 00:20:33,080 --> 00:20:34,919 Speaker 1: where it gets down to one and a half. It 308 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,680 Speaker 1: gets down to one, the wise guys buy it back 309 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 1: because I think that's sort of their breaking point and 310 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:45,479 Speaker 1: how comfortable they feel betting the Jets. You know another 311 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: game that's interesting, and I'm going to go with a 312 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 1: favorite here is I'm going to take the Chargers minus 313 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 1: five and a half. And here's why. Corey Lindsley, though 314 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:02,760 Speaker 1: not announced, I called he's back. He calls all their protections. 315 00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 1: So what did you see from the Chargers against Denver? 316 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,600 Speaker 1: They were in a third string center, they weren't calling protections. 317 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: They were missing on all the stunts. They'll clean up 318 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:19,920 Speaker 1: the offensive line. Also, what can give the Chargers trouble? 319 00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:24,440 Speaker 1: If you have a dominating number one corner, which Denver has, 320 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,480 Speaker 1: It takes Mike Williams out of the game. Seattle is 321 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 1: okay at corner, certainly not dominant. I'm taking the Chargers 322 00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: to win, actually convincingly. It's dropped to minus five and 323 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: a half. It's it's I don't Seattle's got a game. 324 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: Their tackles are excellent, but I would take the Chargers 325 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:49,480 Speaker 1: sharper square, totally square. It's moved from six and a 326 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 1: half to five and a half because of professional money 327 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: they are in on the Seahawks right now, I think 328 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,640 Speaker 1: there's real issues and they believe there are a real 329 00:21:59,720 --> 00:22:03,479 Speaker 1: issue with what the Chargers are doing offensively because they 330 00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,959 Speaker 1: have had so many offensive line issues, but also because 331 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:10,600 Speaker 1: they're just not calling good game plans. Joe Lombardi is 332 00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: calling a very strange conservative We're going to run it 333 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,800 Speaker 1: first down, run it second down, hope Justin Herbert can 334 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,919 Speaker 1: find a miracle on third down. And it's not playing 335 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 1: to the strengths of this offense. And I think they 336 00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: like what they're seeing from Seattle and not just In 337 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 1: Geno Smith, who through six weeks now is proving to 338 00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 1: be a serviceable to better than serviceable quarterback, and we 339 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,439 Speaker 1: can recite the litany of stats that he has that 340 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 1: put him in the top tier of quarterbacks right now. 341 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: We're not going to be crazy, We're not going to 342 00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 1: use a small sample size to say all of a sudden, 343 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 1: Gino Smith is an all pro quarterback. But he's doing 344 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: the things that he does need to do to keep 345 00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,399 Speaker 1: this team in games and help them win games. And 346 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 1: I actually think Kenneth Walker is potentially a better solution 347 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,760 Speaker 1: for them at running back than Rashad Penny. He's pretty amazing, 348 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 1: and so this is a really good matchup for them 349 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:08,920 Speaker 1: against the Charter's team that is consistently overvalued. Football seasons underway, 350 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 1: now is the perfect time to download Fan Duel, America's 351 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,560 Speaker 1: number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a 352 00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 1: no sweat first bet up to a thousand dollars that's 353 00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 1: free bets back if your first bet doesn't win. The 354 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:28,159 Speaker 1: promo code is always Colin. 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I 379 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 1: think they're the better team and they're getting points. Jacksonville 380 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,040 Speaker 1: losing again. The crowd will be a non factor, arguably 381 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,840 Speaker 1: be a pro Giants crowd. I think to what the 382 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: Giants are doing. I think there's I think their ability 383 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,159 Speaker 1: to play solid football in the second half. Daniel Jones 384 00:24:58,240 --> 00:25:02,000 Speaker 1: is not making mistakes, Trevor Lawrence is despite his talent. 385 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,240 Speaker 1: I think the Giants are the better team. They're getting points, 386 00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 1: crowd as an absolute non factor, the heat of Jacksonville 387 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: that's not a factor, or now in late October that 388 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 1: would worry me. I think they control the line of scrimmage. 389 00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: I think their defense gives forces Trevor Lawrence and the mistakes. 390 00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: I would take the Giants straight out sharper square. So 391 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: the wise guys are on the Jacks and it's an 392 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 1: interesting matchup, a really interesting matchup. The Giants are grading 393 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: out as the luckiest team in the NFL, and I 394 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,600 Speaker 1: don't mean that in a pejorative way. I mean that 395 00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 1: in ways that we can quantify. At Action Network, we 396 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 1: publish something called the Luck Rankings that takes into factors 397 00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:47,639 Speaker 1: such as turnovers, mistakes by the other teams, things that 398 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: you would expect to show some regression To the mean, 399 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:54,679 Speaker 1: the Giants are far and away the luckiest team in 400 00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: the NFL. Okay, they're thirtieth in DVOA and defense with 401 00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,520 Speaker 1: basically just says they're really bad at defense. They've had 402 00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: miraculous wins week after week after week. They beat the 403 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: Panthers by three. They beat the Bears by eight. They 404 00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: beat the Packers, who are looking worse and worse each week. 405 00:26:12,240 --> 00:26:15,920 Speaker 1: They have flirt turnovers turnovers to beat the Ravens. They've 406 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,280 Speaker 1: been tied or trailed in the fourth quarter of all 407 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,960 Speaker 1: five games that they've won. I think this is a 408 00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 1: Bilow Cell high spot for the Jaguars. The Jaguars have 409 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,520 Speaker 1: a really good rush defense this year. It plays to 410 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 1: the giant strength, and the Jags have been in the 411 00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:35,000 Speaker 1: opposite side of luck in this situation. No joke. Last week, 412 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence played the best statistical game in the history 413 00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,960 Speaker 1: of the NFL for a quarterback. To lose like they 414 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,960 Speaker 1: have just had bad spots again and again and again. 415 00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:53,960 Speaker 1: Jags with the side here. I'll tell you my favorite 416 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 1: that's interesting to me is Ravens. Ravens minus six and 417 00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: a half. They're really a good team. They've led by 418 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: double digits. They're using now Lamar so much. He looks 419 00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 1: somewhat fatigued by the fourth quarter and has been a 420 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:14,320 Speaker 1: bad fourth quarter quarterback. Cleveland's not a good team. You 421 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,040 Speaker 1: see Jacoby Brissette four or five times as a starter, 422 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 1: and he just you can see he can't do much. 423 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,479 Speaker 1: I think Baltimore is a really good team that's had 424 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 1: bad fourth quarters. I watched the Giants Ravens game for 425 00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:29,800 Speaker 1: a second time this week. They were the better football team. 426 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 1: This is one of the few blowouts of the weekend 427 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,000 Speaker 1: to me, even though it's a divisional game. I think 428 00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:38,480 Speaker 1: the Ravens win comfortably at home. Pissed off after blowing 429 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:42,600 Speaker 1: that game. Sharper Square. Yeah, look, I think that Jacoby 430 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 1: Brissette has definitely turned into a pumpkin. The wise guys 431 00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 1: are going to be on Baltimore in this game. It's 432 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,680 Speaker 1: moved from five and a half up to six and 433 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,520 Speaker 1: a half. The Browns defense is putrid, so now you're 434 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 1: getting a quarterback who's not nearly as effective as he 435 00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 1: was in the early part of the year with a 436 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 1: defense that is just dreadful, especially a rush defense that 437 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:08,160 Speaker 1: is dress dreadful. I know JK. Dobbins had some limited 438 00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 1: practice this week, but Lamar is still Lamar, and he's 439 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: running it so thoughtfully and strategically and getting himself out 440 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: of bounds and sliding in the right spots. It's a 441 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 1: real weapon for them. Obviously, we all agree, so the 442 00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 1: wise guys are with you. Okay, there's two other games. 443 00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 1: One I have no opinion on. I have a hunch, 444 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,200 Speaker 1: and I want your expertise. I would take the Commanders 445 00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,840 Speaker 1: plus four and a half. I don't buy green Bay. 446 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,679 Speaker 1: I haven't bought green Bay. I had the Jets beating 447 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,840 Speaker 1: green Bay. My theory is we have anointed Matt Lafleur 448 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 1: to a vib club and he's never paid his dues. 449 00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,960 Speaker 1: The special teams are a wreck again. The defense is 450 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 1: under achieving. He's supposed to be a run designed coach. 451 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,680 Speaker 1: They don't use Aaron Jones, they can't throw the deep ball. 452 00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:56,440 Speaker 1: They may win, but four. It was at five and 453 00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:58,600 Speaker 1: a half. At one point in FanDuel, it's four and 454 00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 1: a half. It feels like a strong commander's play. Should 455 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: I put that in my blazing five? You one hundred 456 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 1: percent should put this in your blazing five. It's a 457 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: game that the wise guys have been talking about all week. 458 00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 1: They targeted it as soon as it opened at five 459 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,120 Speaker 1: and a half. It's why you've seen it go down 460 00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,960 Speaker 1: to four and a half. You take the decals off 461 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:21,280 Speaker 1: the helmets, and you're talking about two teams that have 462 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:26,640 Speaker 1: mediocre to bad defenses. Right and you're talking about the 463 00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 1: only thing that the Commanders do really well on defense 464 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 1: is pressure the quarterback without having a blitz. Their third 465 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: best in pressure rate against as a defense without having 466 00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:43,000 Speaker 1: a blitz. The one thing we know can trouble Aaron 467 00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:45,640 Speaker 1: Rodgers is when you can get to him and pressure 468 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: him without having two blitz. So that plays to Washington's advantage. 469 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: Then let's look at the other side. Let's say it's 470 00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke and you've got a backup quarterback coming in 471 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,640 Speaker 1: for Carson Wentz. The wise guys look at this and think, 472 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,200 Speaker 1: wait a second, we're better off with Taylor Heiniki playing quarterback. 473 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 1: He has anietter, he has a better career completion percentage, 474 00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 1: similar yards per attempt to Carson Wentz for his career, 475 00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:15,680 Speaker 1: similar QBR, and he's more mobile than Carson Wentz. So 476 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 1: it sounds crazy when you look at it. Sort of 477 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,920 Speaker 1: without the numbers, you say, I'm going to bet on 478 00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 1: a team with the backup quarterback whose ownership group is 479 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:30,560 Speaker 1: in complete disarray and they're generally a historically bad franchise 480 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 1: against the defending two time MVP. But this is the 481 00:30:34,600 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 1: spot where you take the Commanders. This game should be 482 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 1: power rated. It is power rated at three to three 483 00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:44,000 Speaker 1: and a half tops, So right now you're still getting 484 00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: about a point to point and a half of value. Okay, 485 00:30:46,960 --> 00:30:49,000 Speaker 1: So then I ask you every week for a game 486 00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:50,920 Speaker 1: that I have not discussed. By the way, I think 487 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 1: the craziest thing in the league so far is the 488 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 1: fact that we think the culture awful and they're three 489 00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 1: to two and one when win over the Chiefs. That's 490 00:30:57,560 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 1: not the game. But I literally said this week, I'm like, oh, 491 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,239 Speaker 1: they're awful. And then I looked at I went, they 492 00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:04,680 Speaker 1: have a winning record, they beat Kansas City. How is 493 00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 1: that possible? Right? What's the game you love that I 494 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,120 Speaker 1: haven't brought up. Yeah, the Chiefs are stunning, right like you, 495 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,840 Speaker 1: we all think the Chiefs should be or the Colts 496 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:16,520 Speaker 1: should be, oh in six right now. The way that 497 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 1: they started the year, they looked so disoriented. Matt Ryan 498 00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: looked terrible. It's very interesting that the sports books they 499 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: never as bad as the Colts looked. They never had 500 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,480 Speaker 1: the Cults out of the lead position to win the 501 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,160 Speaker 1: AFC South. Their odds were always shortest to win the 502 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 1: AFC South. As usual, the bookmakers are seeing something and 503 00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,800 Speaker 1: knowing something. That the rest of us aren't. The game 504 00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 1: that you haven't talked about, which is interesting to me. 505 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,040 Speaker 1: Houston Texans plus seven against the Las Vegas Raiders. I 506 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: don't really understand, and the professional betters don't really understand 507 00:31:54,360 --> 00:31:57,880 Speaker 1: why this number is as big as it is. As 508 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 1: we just talked about with Washington and Green Bay, these 509 00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 1: are two teams that generally are evenly matched when it 510 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 1: comes to what their offensive units are doing and what 511 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:11,200 Speaker 1: their defensive units are doing. In terms of overall rankings. 512 00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 1: There is no reason the Raiders in any scenario should 513 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,840 Speaker 1: be a touchdown favorite against anyone. And this year, the 514 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 1: Texans have been competitive in every game. The only game 515 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 1: they haven't really been competitive in from a score perspective 516 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 1: they lost to the Los Angeles Chargers by ten points. 517 00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:30,320 Speaker 1: They were in that game the entire time. It was 518 00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 1: until two minutes left that they ended up getting it 519 00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,720 Speaker 1: out of hand. So the Texans have been competitive and 520 00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 1: the Raiders aren't, So a touchdown favorite is a little 521 00:32:39,840 --> 00:32:43,479 Speaker 1: bit too big for me. All right, interesting week, How 522 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: did you do last week? I was really really strong. 523 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,160 Speaker 1: We went three and two in our best five. We 524 00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,400 Speaker 1: have yet to have a losing week on the year. 525 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:58,840 Speaker 1: Let's see where it's thirty games in. We're twenty one 526 00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 1: and nine on our best five on the favorites. That's 527 00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: pretty good. Pretty good. I mean considering you and Simon 528 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,480 Speaker 1: hate each other's guts and you make it work. It's 529 00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:13,560 Speaker 1: amazing we can find five games that we agree on 530 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: each week. It really is, and it's honest. It's honestly 531 00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,760 Speaker 1: a miracable you know what. We do it for love 532 00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 1: of the volume. We do it for the fans. We 533 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 1: do it because we know there are people out there 534 00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:28,760 Speaker 1: who need to get educated and we like to give 535 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 1: them knowledge. You are like the Draymond Green Jordan Pool 536 00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:39,400 Speaker 1: of sports gambling. You get along for the better men 537 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,920 Speaker 1: of the community, but you can't stand each other. You 538 00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 1: know what. In that scenario, I like to see myself. 539 00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:49,720 Speaker 1: There's Jordan Pool and I'm about to get all right. 540 00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: Chad Milman, good seeing you, all right, brother, See you 541 00:33:51,840 --> 00:34:12,680 Speaker 1: later the volume. Make sure to check out the Draymond 542 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,160 Speaker 1: Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because 543 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: one of the more entertaining voices in sports. Unique perspective 544 00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:23,239 Speaker 1: understands behind the rope also chops up with guests like 545 00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:27,320 Speaker 1: Gary Peyton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The 546 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:31,680 Speaker 1: Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcasts. Only on 547 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network