1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:30,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Helping 5 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: us push things forward here in New York. Jim Carreen 6 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fixed Income portfolio Manager. Good morning 7 00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: to Chym. Another morning, and it means another day of 8 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: talking about very very low bond yields in Italy, the 9 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 1: two year yield back in a sub zero club and 10 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: everyone trying to work out what that means for a 11 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 1: ten year trade. How is a negative two year Italy 12 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 1: possible or wise one? We'll look at the ten year 13 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: in Italy right now in and around two and work 14 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:59,959 Speaker 1: this one out, Tom. Corporate paper in Europe right now 15 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: out the Bloomberg Barclays aggregate corporate paper. Fifty basis points 16 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 1: is the yield, So Italy has around what one hundred 17 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: one hundred of fifty basis points over Jim corporate credit. 18 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: That is insane, isn't it? Yeah? I I think so, 19 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 1: I mean like I mean, Italy is in a very 20 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,000 Speaker 1: special situation when you compare it to Spain's being yields 21 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 1: thirty basis points um in in yield, so you know 22 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 1: Italy still has some risk premium in it, believe it 23 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 1: or not, even at those lower levels of yield. So 24 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: to Tom's point, looking at the front end of the 25 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,800 Speaker 1: yield curve, we have negative yields again in Italy, deeply 26 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: negative in Germany. That's been there for the last few years. Jim. 27 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 1: The fact of the matter is that the depot rate 28 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: in Europe is negative forty basis points, and that's just 29 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: keeping a lid on any potential upside at the front 30 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: end of the year these yield curves. Is that going 31 00:01:45,120 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: to change anytime soon? No, I don't think it changes 32 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: anytime soon. In fact, it might even get a little 33 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 1: bit worse because we have to think about when we 34 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: look at Italy at zero basis points, you also have 35 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: to think of where you finance as in other words, 36 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: if I buy Italy at zero, but I've financed it 37 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: at minus seventy base as points or minus eighty basis points, 38 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: that I'm making eight basis points. Jim. None of this 39 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: is in fabos. You've been brilliant with us this morning. 40 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 1: Can you explain coming out of this the reaction functions 41 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:20,959 Speaker 1: out of it. Can you presume financial stability? No? I 42 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: don't once we come out of this, no, thank Yeah. Yeah. 43 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,680 Speaker 1: I think that there is a very you know, strong 44 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 1: challenge here and what we have to all recognize is 45 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: that we are in a global liquidity trap, meaning that 46 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,240 Speaker 1: you can lower these rates another fifty basis points, another 47 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: hundred basis points and you're not going to get economic 48 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: economic activity. It used to be the case that when 49 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,360 Speaker 1: you lowered rates, you increase the demand to borrow because 50 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 1: you could borrow at cheap levels and then you could 51 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 1: go and reinvest. The problem that we're having today isn't 52 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,640 Speaker 1: that banks won't lend, is that borrowers won't borrow, and 53 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: we call that a balance sheet recession. And essentially what 54 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 1: we're seeing is these is the potential growth rate is 55 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: low enough that you're not seeing the return on investment 56 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,079 Speaker 1: that's required. So what people are doing is they're holding 57 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: high levels of cash, and as a whole high levels 58 00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,799 Speaker 1: of cash, yields continue to come down. Policy rates in 59 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 1: Europe right now are minus forty basis points. They're probably 60 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: going to lower those even further. But they're also the 61 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:16,080 Speaker 1: financing of these bonds is even lower than that. So 62 00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: you can borrow money at minus a hundred and buy 63 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 1: buns at you know, minus seventy and and you know, 64 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: you walk away with a thirty basis point yield spread. 65 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: It's not a lot, but it's something, and we're talking 66 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 1: about negative numbers. So that's I think that's the way 67 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 1: it goes. Well. The demand for income right now, Jim 68 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 1: is absolutely massive. Bank came out in the last couple 69 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: of days, I think the last fours actually with a 70 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: new contingent convertible bomb, the e T Want I was 71 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: subscribed to a yield a juicy yield to seven percent. 72 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: And I say juicy because relative to what you're getting 73 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,640 Speaker 1: gowns way, you can see why there's so much demand 74 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: for that kind of paper. Yeah, So so look, I mean, 75 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: seven percent sounds really good, but I think you've got 76 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: to look at the risks that are associated with that. 77 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: And I think the you know, you know, to Tom's 78 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 1: point about financial stability, when you get yields this low, 79 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:02,680 Speaker 1: you end up taking more and more risk and lower 80 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: quality risk for just just to get any type of 81 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:07,840 Speaker 1: yield this typically doesn't end very well, and this is 82 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: one of the risks that many central banks have to 83 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: think about. If if lowering rates doesn't really spur the 84 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: economic activity, then why would they create a situation where 85 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:21,560 Speaker 1: they end up creating more risk taking in lower quality assets. So, Jim, 86 00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: let's sort of explore this word risk a little bit further. 87 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 1: Typically in fixed income we talk about credit risk, perhaps 88 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: duration risk. Something that's getting more and more attention is 89 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: liquidity risk. Should we be warring a little bit more 90 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,800 Speaker 1: about the lack of liquidity in the areas that some 91 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 1: investors have been pushed into because of the lack of yield, 92 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:40,599 Speaker 1: lack of income in the risk free asset and in 93 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: the risk asset like high yield for instance. Right, So, 94 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:45,159 Speaker 1: so the liquidity that you're talking about is that if 95 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: you buy some of these higher yielding assets that are 96 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 1: lower in quality, when it comes time to sell, it's 97 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,440 Speaker 1: going to be hard to do that. And that's the 98 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:53,880 Speaker 1: liquidity that you're explaining. And I think that is an 99 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: increased risk because what investors aren't realizing is that they 100 00:04:57,080 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 1: are getting that yield because they're shorting what we call 101 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: the liquidity risk premium. They just don't have the liquidity 102 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: on the asset to get out when they need to, 103 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:06,960 Speaker 1: and I think that does create some in times of stress, 104 00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: I could create bigger problems. A video Bank of International 105 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:15,239 Speaker 1: Settlements with a wonderful Augustin Carstons of Mexico, the leader 106 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,920 Speaker 1: of the Central Bank of the central bankers. They put 107 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: out a blistering report a couple of days ago through 108 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: a threatening and warning of the instabilities John just talked about. 109 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: As we shift to the marginal beeps. Critical question is 110 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,920 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley's seeing tick by tick people reaching up for 111 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 1: itty biddy amounts of yield because they can't get it 112 00:05:37,680 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 1: anywhere else. It sounds like late two thousand six. Yes, 113 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: So look, I mean, you know where I sit. I'm 114 00:05:43,520 --> 00:05:45,840 Speaker 1: a portfolio manager on the asset management side, and I 115 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 1: can tell you that what we're doing within our funds 116 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 1: is we are not taking excessive risk for small amounts 117 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: of yield. Um. You know, what is going on broadly 118 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 1: throughout Morgan Stanley with its client base is a question 119 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,560 Speaker 1: I think for some of the market strategies. But but 120 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: from an investor's perspective, from my perspective, as I confess, 121 00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: I am not going to go out and just to 122 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 1: take up a little itty itty bit of yield to 123 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: take on lower liquidity risk because it's just not worth 124 00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,920 Speaker 1: it in the end. What and I'm going to combine 125 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: us with Jim Karen fixed income guy, with David focus 126 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: Lando of Deutsche Bank in economics. We're at these negative yields, John, 127 00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: we just had a record a German tenure negative point 128 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 1: three six two. Right now, when we come out of 129 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,119 Speaker 1: these negative yields, what happens when we cross zero into 130 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: a positive yield? Am I? Right? We really don't know. Yeah, 131 00:06:35,480 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: we we really don't because essentially a lot of things 132 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 1: have been forced into these assets at these low levels 133 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 1: of yields that there's going to be an income loss. Now, 134 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:45,679 Speaker 1: what you have to understand is that within fixed income, 135 00:06:45,720 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: I always like to say rule number one in fixed 136 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:50,599 Speaker 1: income as an investor is don't lose money in fixed income. 137 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: The potential to lose money in fixed income is very, 138 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,840 Speaker 1: very high. The more you push these yields down and 139 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: the less cushion that you have typically from a coupon 140 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 1: that you would really get on a bond, the more 141 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 1: risky it is that when yields do rise, that you 142 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: actually get a lost But let me just kind on 143 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: this one point. The bigger issue that we're having right 144 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: now is because yields are so low, they actually become 145 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,200 Speaker 1: highly correlated with equity. So if you're trying to run 146 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 1: a diversified portfolio typically six stock bonds, and one's supposed 147 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:22,080 Speaker 1: to other goes down, what ends up happening is that 148 00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 1: they both move in the same direction. So the risk 149 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: that you're talking about is higher than you think because 150 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 1: it's becoming very, very difficult to create a diversified portfolio 151 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: when fixed income is correlating. I'm gonna burst into tears. 152 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: Are in the edge of co variance. Let's talk about 153 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: let's cant I flunked the exactly. The equation is so 154 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: damn long. I flunked the exam like three times. Jim Carrell, 155 00:07:44,480 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: we were done. Thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate that. Becauld. 156 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 1: You want to bring in Jeffrey right as we drove 157 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: for I would love to Jeffrey. I'm sure it's bracing 158 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:09,840 Speaker 1: himself for the first question on this show. What have 159 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: I tuned into? Jeffrey right, you raise your group antalyists. 160 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 1: Good moneing to Jeffrey. Heyre are you guys, very very 161 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: well and slightly confused on my side, the US then 162 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 1: adding more European Union products to a list of goods 163 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,000 Speaker 1: that it could hit with retalnatory tariffs. We've got this 164 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 1: long running transatlantic subsidy dispute between Boeing and Airbus. Jeffrey, 165 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: can you just help us understand a little bit better 166 00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:35,560 Speaker 1: as to what exactly is going on between the Europeans 167 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: and the United States right now on this issue? Well, 168 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:42,600 Speaker 1: I think the broader context as they've been circling each 169 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:46,319 Speaker 1: other for months, almost a year now on the possibility 170 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 1: of auto tariffs um, and underlying that, of course, it 171 00:08:49,400 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 1: is the very strained relationship between Trump and Merkel as 172 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: well as a number of other European leaders. So you know, 173 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: I think it all flows from the political strains and 174 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 1: and of course a lot of these long running trade 175 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 1: disputes as well. Jeffrey, the trade dispute is there, Osaka 176 00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: seems ancient right now? How do we jump start trade talks? 177 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: In every article, every political persuasion, there's this sort of 178 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 1: mystery of the when of it? Do you have a 179 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: handle on the win of our many trade talks? No? 180 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: My understanding talking to people here in DC is that 181 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: the the um details coming out of OSACA have been 182 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 1: very thin for people in the in the bureaucracy at 183 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 1: USTRHO who would be making these negotiations. So I think 184 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 1: not a lot beyond what Trump hat she announced. You know, 185 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: soccer has been decided, including you know, when they'll meet, 186 00:09:42,240 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: what what point they'll be starting the negotiations from all 187 00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: of these vital questions I think are still unresolved. Jeffrey, 188 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: no timeline either. We used to deadlines, no deadlines this 189 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: time around. Is this a new approach? Yeah? I think, uh, 190 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: it's probably. My guess is that it's an attempt to 191 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:04,559 Speaker 1: um not provide the markets with uh you know that 192 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,160 Speaker 1: when there's a deadline, the markets then provide this sort 193 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,199 Speaker 1: of pressure on the negotiators as it gets closer. I 194 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 1: think they're eager to avoid that. But in my mind, 195 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: there is a deadline somewhere in Trump's head. It's just 196 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 1: not a public Come on, you sound like an international 197 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 1: relations guy. There's a deadline in his head. Is he 198 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: doing this by himself? I mean what you just said, 199 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 1: Jeffrey equates to me, the guys like you know, the 200 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,720 Speaker 1: names we've been covering are Michael McKee has been covering 201 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:33,559 Speaker 1: this for two years. Does Lightheiser matter to be direct? 202 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 1: I think he matters a lot, But he only matters 203 00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: as far as Trump will let him go. So, um, 204 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,839 Speaker 1: he matters because he has Trump's confidence, because he's been 205 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: the most effective negotiator throughout this process. Um, and because 206 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: he is uh. He does all of his work in private. 207 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: He doesn't speak much except to Congress, which is a 208 00:10:55,960 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 1: difference from the rest of Trump's cabinet. But uh, he 209 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: can only go as far as Trump will let him. 210 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: So the percolation today and this was early John was 211 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:10,040 Speaker 1: was the president mentioned European tariffs or whatever? Do you 212 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: partition on the one debate we don't focus on the 213 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,559 Speaker 1: Europe US trade debate. Do you focus on autos separate 214 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: from everything else? Or is it three part autos, the 215 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: traditional agriculture issues of Europe and everything else? How do 216 00:11:25,080 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 1: you partition that? I think autos are the most important issue. 217 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: The agricultural stuff is also important. There's a digital digital 218 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: trade component as well. There are a lot of other issues, 219 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:43,079 Speaker 1: but for for Trump, autos are the most evocative question. 220 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:45,000 Speaker 1: And that's true for Europe as well as for Japan. 221 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:47,720 Speaker 1: And you know, we've seen the past three year as well. 222 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: Jeffrey has become really clear over the last year that 223 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 1: the overlap between foreign policy and trade policy is absolutely massive. 224 00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: Not lost on many people that a couple of weeks agot, 225 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 1: the Chinese president met with the North Korean leader? How 226 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,240 Speaker 1: key that issue in trade negotiations right now? And how 227 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: strong is that card the president she holds? It's important. 228 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 1: I think it's a big part of the reason why 229 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: Trump um went back to what was willing to sort 230 00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,680 Speaker 1: of make a ceasefire in Osaka because she had just 231 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: been in yong Yang. I think it still not an 232 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: accident that Trump then went to Pyongyang right afterwards, that 233 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: that's sort of what he sees as a triumph in 234 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,680 Speaker 1: North Korea. He's a very important part of what he 235 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: will sell as he runs through electric his record on 236 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: foreign policy. This is distant to Jeffrey Wright, but just 237 00:12:32,760 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 1: as important, what does the president she's sell at home? 238 00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: President she's in Beijing, he's got a drive forward whatever 239 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: their trade stances. With a huge real distraction of protests 240 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: and violence in Hong Kong, how do you perceive how 241 00:12:47,559 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: the Chinese will respond to President Trump? I think They're 242 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,600 Speaker 1: not going to go any further than they see as 243 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,080 Speaker 1: in their in their own interests, And in fact, I 244 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,359 Speaker 1: think there's much more skepticism and vision about Trump's attentions 245 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: now than there was a six months ago. There is 246 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: a sense now that the US is out to limit 247 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:12,719 Speaker 1: China's rides rather than to get specific trade concessions. So 248 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 1: that's a big shift. This has been very helpful. Jeffrey right, 249 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 1: Thank you so much. You raise your group. This is 250 00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 1: a joy. It is a Harvard Kennedy school and it 251 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: is usually thought of his political but they have one 252 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: of the best economists in the world, Douglas Elmendorf writing 253 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 1: heard over the Collected Egos at Harvard Kennedy or Kennedy 254 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: as it is called. Uh. Doug Elmendorf, of course encyclopedic 255 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: on her fiscal policy with his former CBO work. And 256 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:55,599 Speaker 1: they have a newly minted senior fellow. Her name is 257 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 1: Megan Green, as she has a wonderful resume of a 258 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 1: bill of you to join Harvard Kennedy. The number one 259 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 1: thing is you knows the path to Fenway Park from 260 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 1: across the Charles River. Megan Green joins us a newly 261 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: meanted senior fellow the Harvard Kennedy School. Meghan, congratulations, Why 262 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:18,440 Speaker 1: did you apply to h k S or did they 263 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: find you? Thanks? Um? So I'm going here largely to 264 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:26,520 Speaker 1: write a book. Um. And if you're a senior fellow, 265 00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: you do a bit of teaching and work on a 266 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: project of your channel. So it was a perfect match. 267 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: Really really good. Congratulations on this one of the things 268 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: you do well, and you did this manual life and 269 00:14:37,360 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: all your other work is usually with every third sentence 270 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: you ask why? What is the why of central bank 271 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:49,600 Speaker 1: policy in the United States right now? Yeah? So I 272 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: think that is the question everyone's been to ask whether 273 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: the said will be cutting reach and we knew pretty 274 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: well that they probably will now. But the more important 275 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: question is why. What's the point of cutting rates? And 276 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: there I think actually the evidence is much less conclusive. 277 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,880 Speaker 1: So you know, we had rates with the zero lower 278 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: bound for seven years. It didn't stoke inflation or growth really, 279 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:13,520 Speaker 1: so it's cutting it's really going to help there if 280 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:15,720 Speaker 1: you talk to businesses, and that's been a real drag 281 00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: on the economy. Even the small businesses are reporting that 282 00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: they're having no problem getting access to capital, So borrowing 283 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: costs are hardly a constraint for businesses m So if 284 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:27,800 Speaker 1: we cut rates, are they really going to borrow more 285 00:15:27,840 --> 00:15:30,920 Speaker 1: and go ahead and invest that That's really unclear. So 286 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 1: you know, the set is in a really tough spot. 287 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: I think the markets are going to bully them into 288 00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: some rate cuts, but it's not clear that that's actually 289 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: going to help. And if that's the case, then we'll 290 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,680 Speaker 1: be going into the next downturn whenever it comes um 291 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: without any real tools to use. Certainly rate moves are 292 00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: aren't going to be effective. They'll have to pull out 293 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,040 Speaker 1: on conventionary monetary policy tools again. So megan helpers identifying 294 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 1: the problem right now and ultimately what the policy prescription 295 00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: would be to address that problem, and where that policy 296 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,720 Speaker 1: effort would come from. Sure, so, I think one huge 297 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 1: problem is just over supply of everything of capital, goods 298 00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 1: and labor um. But you know, the the FITS concerned 299 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: about the capital piece, and there's not a whole lot 300 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 1: that the FIG could do about over supply, and the 301 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: flip side of that is a lack of demand for 302 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: capital um. So the FIG can deal with the supply 303 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: of capital, but they can't force it down. Company's throat. 304 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: They don't want to borrow UM. So I really don't 305 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: think this is a job for the feed I actually 306 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 1: think fiscal authorities UM need to do more. And I 307 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,560 Speaker 1: don't mean, you know, huge tax cuts, UM that kind 308 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:38,080 Speaker 1: of stimulus, but and you do you think more targeted 309 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: policies towards investment would really help. And also, as I mentioned, 310 00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 1: you know, we're we're pretty long in the tooth in 311 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: this recovery, and a recession is coming, probably not in 312 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: the next year. But I think one thing we could 313 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 1: do is try to set up some automatic fiscal stabilizers 314 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:54,800 Speaker 1: for the next downturn. And now that we're in a 315 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: relatively useful period. Unfortunately that's not getting a whole lot 316 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: um of residence policy makers. Let's call Matthew Megan and 317 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,120 Speaker 1: you have every ability, Meggan Green to go. Matthew. Here, 318 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: I'm talking about gamma, the convexity. The acceleration of some 319 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: of these bond moves, is that tangible to economists that 320 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: they care about the rate of change of the rated 321 00:17:16,359 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: change of some of these yields were seeing, so the 322 00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 1: care and so far as it is either a reflection 323 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: of what's happening in the economy, and sometimes that is um. 324 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: Sometimes you know, an inverted Giel curve means that investors 325 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:33,280 Speaker 1: think we're going into recession. UM. But I also think 326 00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: that there are other factors that are causing these big 327 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: moves as well. Um. You know, monetary policy divergence is 328 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: a piece of it. But the fact that we live 329 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,040 Speaker 1: in a world where deflation is the fat tail risk 330 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: and so actually, you know, long term bonds are a 331 00:17:47,280 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: great equity risk catch and so you know, I think 332 00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 1: that's causing big moves in bond markets as well. So 333 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: it's it's not clear that it's actually a reflection of 334 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 1: the economy. UM, but we look at it for sure. 335 00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: Maggie Green, thank us how much senior follow It is 336 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: a firm of ancient history, Lazard Frere. They have launched 337 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: themselves over many many of a decade of excellence. J 338 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 1: Jacob joins us now from Lazard Asset Management. Jay, you 339 00:18:31,160 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: guys right up, an exceptionally acute note. Can you explain, 340 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:42,400 Speaker 1: within your detail and your acuteness, the oddity of stocks 341 00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: up amid yields that we've essentially never seen before? How 342 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 1: does that happen? Well, it's a great question, and thank 343 00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:55,800 Speaker 1: you UM. I think that what we're seeing here is 344 00:18:56,400 --> 00:19:00,359 Speaker 1: defensive stocks really finding a bid. It's pushed markets, it's 345 00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:03,720 Speaker 1: preach markets higher, and it's in many cases I think 346 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: been the lack of alternative. What we've seen, I think 347 00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:11,719 Speaker 1: is investors positioning around uncertainty and and sometimes the safer 348 00:19:11,760 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: bet when volatility is driving markets is in some of 349 00:19:16,960 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 1: those defensive equities. Do you see the defensive equities including 350 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: continued dividend growth UM. I think dividend growth that is 351 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: a it tends to be a bit case by case. 352 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 1: Outside of the US, A lot of investors are looking 353 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,159 Speaker 1: for for yield, much as the US investors, where I 354 00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 1: would say very start for that UM before the FED 355 00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 1: began to raise rates UM, and I think dividends are 356 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,840 Speaker 1: a way that a lot of the companies are are 357 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,720 Speaker 1: looking to attract investors, certainly UM. From our perspective, I 358 00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:49,399 Speaker 1: think we try to be agnostic. It's really about total 359 00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 1: return UM and dividends are are one component of it. 360 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:54,880 Speaker 1: Of course, we've got to look at the other earnings 361 00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 1: driven potential outcomes there as well, so J You know, 362 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: as Thomas mentioning earlier, we've had such a moving the 363 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 1: equity markets here the SMP up about give us a 364 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:10,400 Speaker 1: sense of what you think a reasonable asset allocation is today. Well, 365 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:13,560 Speaker 1: we've recently trimmed back some of our equity positioning. We've 366 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: been overweight equities broadly in our strategies for really for 367 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 1: for a couple of years, and we've started to take 368 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: that back. We're still overweight equities um relative demands in 369 00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: most markets, but I think it's it's just our most 370 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:29,440 Speaker 1: recent note pointed this out. I think this is much 371 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: more about looking at the upside relative to the downside. 372 00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:37,800 Speaker 1: Uncertainty is being driven very very clearly. I think by 373 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: by policy. That could be monetary policy, it could be 374 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: trade policy, and we're also concerned about fiscal policy over 375 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 1: the medium term as well. And so I think it's 376 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 1: you know, we've just taken some profits on equities. Were 377 00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: still overweight by a little bit, but not by as 378 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,919 Speaker 1: much as we were, if that makes sense. So you 379 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier some defensive stocks, but we've certainly seen some 380 00:20:58,359 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: valuations in defensive stocks that make them a little problematic 381 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,440 Speaker 1: for some investors. How do you think about the evaluation 382 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,399 Speaker 1: in some of some of those defensive sectors. Oh, I agree, 383 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: I mean in in utilities and staples. You've seen a 384 00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: lot of inflows UM I think over the last three months, 385 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: even the whole year, um and we'd expect that is 386 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:19,639 Speaker 1: going to make valuations difficult. Our way of looking for 387 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 1: that so far, particularly in the last couple of months, 388 00:21:22,560 --> 00:21:24,920 Speaker 1: is to really start turning over some of the less 389 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: inspected rocks in the marketplace. UM. I think that there 390 00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 1: are parts of the marketplace, emerging markets in particular, which 391 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 1: have largely been overlooked. I mean, this has been really 392 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:37,639 Speaker 1: the story of the U S and China um and 393 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 1: I think that there's a lot of other asset classes 394 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: out there that are maybe you could find more attractive valuations, 395 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: maybe playing the same themes in certain cases, but with 396 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:49,159 Speaker 1: a better risk reward trade off. So my understanding is 397 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: in the emerging markets there's been some significant underperformance. Are 398 00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:58,480 Speaker 1: you feel comfortable getting maybe increasing exposure emerging markets? I 399 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 1: think it's you know, it's about how much of a 400 00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: position do you have any um UM for US. I mean, 401 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:04,800 Speaker 1: if you look at a market like Brazil, right, you've 402 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,159 Speaker 1: got you've got pension reform um that we believe is 403 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,280 Speaker 1: going to get through the Lower House. That's a big deal. Brazil. 404 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,360 Speaker 1: The growth is not the story there. I think it's 405 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 1: well understood that they're in a flat to negative or 406 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,800 Speaker 1: very very low growth environment. But you do have good 407 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,399 Speaker 1: support from valuations. You've got a central bank. I mean, 408 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 1: the big problem in the market, like Brazil historically has 409 00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,919 Speaker 1: been inflation. Well that's under control. So you've got i 410 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 1: think a potential catalyst coming up there. You've got the 411 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: ability of rates to actually be supportive. And then down 412 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: the road you might have some privatizations. And in a 413 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: lot of those markets, when things go from very bad 414 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: so slightly bad, that's where a lot of the equity 415 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: return can be found. Jacob, thank you so much. A 416 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 1: long e m or at least the opportunity of long them. 417 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 1: He is with Blizard Asset Management. Thanks for listening to 418 00:22:55,200 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Savannahs podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple, 419 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 1: a podcast, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 420 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,960 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast, you can 421 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio