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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Roun Auto

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Given it is Tuesday, that means we are now exactly

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Speaker 2: ten weeks out until election Day, seventy days for those

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Speaker 2: of you who are accounting, and we can bet the candidates,

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Speaker 2: we'll be spending a significant chunk of these next seventy

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Speaker 2: days on the campaign trail, specifically in the key battleground

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Speaker 2: states that ultimately will decide the outcome of this election.

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Speaker 2: We're already seeing that this week with Trump and Vance

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Speaker 2: in Michigan. They'll have to Pennsylvania later on this week

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas are getting set to depart

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Speaker 2: on a bus tour of Georgia that begins tomorrow. So

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Speaker 2: let's get into all of this now with one of

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Speaker 2: our reporters on the campaign trail who was actually here

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Speaker 2: in Washington this week, or at least for these few days.

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Speaker 2: Stephanieli covers politics for US at Bloomberg and is joining

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Speaker 2: me in studio. So, Stephanie, I know it's only a

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Speaker 2: matter of time before you're back out on the trail

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Speaker 2: with these candidates, but it does feel like the pace

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Speaker 2: is picking up. And we understand this is by design,

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Speaker 2: at least on the Trump Vance campaign team, given all

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Speaker 2: of the oxygen and energy present in the Harris campaign,

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Speaker 2: they are starting to plan to spend more of their time.

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Speaker 4: On the road.

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Speaker 5: You're certainly right, And if we remember just two weeks ago,

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Speaker 5: Trump had only spent maybe two days on the road,

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Speaker 5: and so the pace that they're going is significantly more

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Speaker 5: intense than they were just you know, earlier this month

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Speaker 5: when it seemed like they were competing against Joe Biden

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Speaker 5: for the presidency. And as you mentioned, of course, part

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Speaker 5: of this is because of all the oxygen that Kamala

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Speaker 5: Harrison her campaign is taking up, but also it's just,

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Speaker 5: you know, it's ten weeks out until the election. We

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Speaker 5: know that the Harris Walls ticket is going to be

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Speaker 5: barnstorming day after day, and so it's just it's the

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Speaker 5: name of the game really at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't wait till after Labor Day, it seems

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Speaker 2: in this cycle. It's getting going in this week before

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Speaker 2: Labor Day. There's also the question though, of the resources

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Speaker 2: to be able to keep this up over the next

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Speaker 2: ten weeks. As we've talked a lot about the fundraising

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Speaker 2: machine the Harris campaign has been to this point over

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Speaker 2: half a billion dollars raised. How are we likely to

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Speaker 2: see Trump advance events changing with finance financial considerations in mind,

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Speaker 2: Perhaps not as many big rallies.

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Speaker 5: We've actually seen that play out, at least in these

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Speaker 5: last couple of weeks when he has been picking up

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Speaker 5: more of his campaign schedule. There's a handful of events

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Speaker 5: every week that tend to be a smaller audience, maybe

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Speaker 5: you know, at a sheriff's department or in just a

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Speaker 5: smaller arena really where he can still gather supporters, but

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Speaker 5: it doesn't necessarily associate with the cost of buying out

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Speaker 5: an entire arena, filling out an entire you know, stadium

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Speaker 5: with supporters. But this allows him to have a more

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Speaker 5: personalized experience with some of his voters in these key

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Speaker 5: swing states well.

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Speaker 2: And it also becomes a question of the message he's

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Speaker 2: bringing and the ticket is bringing as a whole to

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Speaker 2: these states. We have seen Donald Trump openly questioning the

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Speaker 2: advice of his own team when it comes to focusing

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Speaker 2: on policy and not personal attacks against Harris or others. Well,

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Speaker 2: Jady Vance does seem like he is talking more about policy.

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Speaker 2: He's supposed to talk about economic policy, specifically in Michigan

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Speaker 2: today he was talking about abortion and to Meet the

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Speaker 2: Press interview over this past weekend. Are we seeing for

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Speaker 2: all of the talk about Jade Vance possibly being able

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Speaker 2: to serve as the attack dog for Donald Trump with

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Speaker 2: his selection as his running mate, that actually it's Trump

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Speaker 2: who's still the attack dog and Jade Vance is the

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Speaker 2: one who's actually articulating policy.

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Speaker 5: I think it's a really great point. And part of

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Speaker 5: that is because some of the appeal of Donald Trump

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Speaker 5: is his personality, right, It's the personalized attacks that he

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Speaker 5: makes on his opponents, and that's something that his supporters

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Speaker 5: really admire and like of him because he doesn't come

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Speaker 5: off as a politician. So the fact that he's able

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Speaker 5: to still do that while his running mate takes on

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Speaker 5: some of more of that policy discussion does seem to

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Speaker 5: be playing out, you know exactly how you mentioned it.

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Speaker 2: Well, speaking of how things are playing out, we of

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Speaker 2: course saw a very energetic convention in Chicago last week

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Speaker 2: for the Democrats culminating, and that's acceptance speech from Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 2: Haven't seen much of her since then. She's not getting

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Speaker 2: back out on the trail in physical form at least

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Speaker 2: until tomorrow, and we still don't know if she's sitting

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Speaker 2: down for that big interview she said she wanted to

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Speaker 2: schedule before the month of August is out. There's only

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Speaker 2: four days left there in August, Stephanie. When are we

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Speaker 2: going to start seeing more from her?

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Speaker 5: I mean, so part of that is that they said

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Speaker 5: they would have its scheduled by the end of the month,

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Speaker 5: so that might not necessarily mean that she does the

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Speaker 5: sit down interview before then. But I think that you're

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Speaker 5: right in that she hasn't been as out there. She

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Speaker 5: hasn't been as accessible to the press as Donald Trump

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Speaker 5: has been, and that's exactly what their campaign is focusing

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Speaker 5: on the fact that she's you know, quote unquote hiding

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Speaker 5: behind her advisors and not necessarily getting her message out there.

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Speaker 5: And there's still a lot of questions about what policies

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Speaker 5: she's standing behind, how to actually see them through, and

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Speaker 5: so that's really what we're looking for you know, as

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Speaker 5: we get into these last ten weeks of this election cycle.

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Speaker 5: But time will tell, but it does seem like they

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Speaker 5: are picking up their campaign schedule quite a bit.

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Speaker 2: So beginning with the bus tour in Georgia tomorrow and

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Speaker 2: then assuming they might have a pace similar to the

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Speaker 2: Trump Vance ticket beyond that after Labor Day.

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Speaker 5: It certainly looks like that would be the case. I mean,

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Speaker 5: especially with the fact that there is only seventy or

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Speaker 5: so days left. That really is the only way to

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Speaker 5: get your name out there to voters.

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Speaker 2: Well, and of course it's not just about getting your

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Speaker 2: name out there, it's about getting people to give you

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Speaker 2: money as well. We talked about the kind of money

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Speaker 2: that Harris has been bringing in, but Jadie Vance is

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Speaker 2: starting to pull some money into given his ties to

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Speaker 2: Silicon Valley. We understand some big named donors are organizing

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Speaker 2: events for him both in New York and California in

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Speaker 2: the coming weeks.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so one of the main reasons why Jade Vance

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Speaker 5: was picked as the renting mate was just because of

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Speaker 5: the ties that he has two really wealthy donors and

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Speaker 5: the peal that he has with these folks. And so

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Speaker 5: in the next two or three weeks. He has a

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Speaker 5: couple fundraisers lined up, one of which in Los Angeles, California,

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Speaker 5: with David Sachs, and another in New York with Jacob

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Speaker 5: helperg who runs Pallenteer is a co founder, and so

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Speaker 5: you know, just these names really signal that there is

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Speaker 5: a shift among you know, big tech, you know, big

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Speaker 5: Wall Street money coming in to support Trump. And that's

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Speaker 5: something that their campaign has been really highlighting in the

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Speaker 5: last couple of weeks, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, and of course over the last couple of weeks

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Speaker 2: and this entire cycle thus far, Stephanie Lai has been

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Speaker 2: covering the campaigns for US. Great to see you here

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Speaker 2: in Washington. Thank you so much for joining me. Now,

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Speaker 2: as we continue to talk about the messaging coming out

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Speaker 2: of these campaigns and the way in which they are

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Speaker 2: spending the money that they're raising, we know that Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris has a big ad buy that's going to be

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Speaker 2: running through Labor Day and of course even more ad

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Speaker 2: buys coming after Labor Day. One launching today though in

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Speaker 2: some of these key swing states, is specifically about the economy.

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Speaker 2: It's titled every Day, and its cites some of the

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Speaker 2: things she said in her speech in North Carolina earlier

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Speaker 2: this month, when she outlined policy proposals when it comes

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Speaker 2: to affordable housing or price gouging. For example, here's a

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Speaker 2: little taste.

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Speaker 6: I will be laser focused on creating opportunity for the

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Speaker 6: middle class that advance their economic security, stability, and dignity.

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Speaker 6: If you want to know someone cares about, look who

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Speaker 6: they fight for. I'll try fights for bllionaires and large corporations.

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Speaker 6: I will fight to give money back to working in

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Speaker 6: middle class Americans.

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Speaker 2: But how is that kind of messaging resonating with voters,

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Speaker 2: especially when she's part of this Biden administration. In the

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Speaker 2: economy under Biden is something that a lot of voters

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Speaker 2: don't feel thrilled about. So to get into this conversation.

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Speaker 2: Now joining me in studio is Cliff Young. He is

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Speaker 2: US Public Affairs President at ipso's polling and of course

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Speaker 2: has been looking into the economy issue and other issues

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Speaker 2: throughout this entire cycle. So you put out a piece

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Speaker 2: last week, Cliff, and it's good to see you here

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Speaker 2: in studio about Biden's inflation orphans. Does Kamala Harris easily

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Speaker 2: adopt those inflation orphans? Are we seeing signs that she's

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Speaker 2: having some success, more so with the economy question than

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Speaker 2: Biden was.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, first and foremost, the primary issue is inflation

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Speaker 3: in the economy. Inflation, inflation, inflation, and that was Biden's

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Speaker 3: primary problem. He was weak in the polls. His numbers

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Speaker 3: were weak because of that. And what we can say

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Speaker 3: is we still don't know. I think we need to

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Speaker 3: wait a bit to see how Harris does. But part

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Speaker 3: of her jump in the polls is a function of

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Speaker 3: these very constituencies being more enthusiastic towards her in respect

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Speaker 3: to the inflation. So some effect in the short term

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Speaker 3: right now, whether it's a long term effect, we don't know.

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Speaker 3: What we can say definitively is that Harris and the

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Speaker 3: campaign are on message well.

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Speaker 2: And some of the things that they're saying are still

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Speaker 2: rather vague policy ideas, but specific enough that you have

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Speaker 2: folks here on Bloomberg, for example, questioning whether or all

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Speaker 2: these are things that actually work in reality, like when

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Speaker 2: it comes to price gouging or no tax on tips,

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Speaker 2: which is something Donald Trump is floating as well, that

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Speaker 2: many who are deficit wary say that could actually create

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Speaker 2: a bigger fiscal issue, But how does it actually resonate

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Speaker 2: with voters who may not be prioritizing those considerations, thinking

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Speaker 2: more about their own kitchen table.

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Speaker 3: These are populous measures. These are measures designed to win

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Speaker 3: the election. What she's doing, what Harris is doing in

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Speaker 3: the campaign, is doing, is showing the American populace, showing

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Speaker 3: these orphans that they're empathetic towards them, that they're worried

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Speaker 3: about those issues. And as I said before, part of

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Speaker 3: or in part the jump in the numbers are a

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Speaker 3: function of her reaching these constituencies.

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Speaker 2: Well, speaking of a jump in the numbers, we got

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Speaker 2: consumer confidence data today, obviously, something we watch very closely

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Speaker 2: here at Bloomberg six month high in August, in part

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Speaker 2: because of more optimism around inflation, in this idea that

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Speaker 2: interest rates could becoming lower as well. Is there a

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Speaker 2: historical relationship between where consumer confidences and the way in

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Speaker 2: which effective and Harris is part of this administration perform

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Speaker 2: in election cycles.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a correlation. It's difficult to kind of line

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Speaker 3: it up as a one to one relationship. But the

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Speaker 3: more people feel optimistic, the more likely they are to

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Speaker 3: support the party in power. The more pessimistic they are,

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Speaker 3: the more likely they are to not support the party

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Speaker 3: in power to support the opposition. And this is good

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Speaker 3: for the Hairs campaign. Now, is it too little too late?

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Speaker 3: We will see, But at least directionally speaking, it's good

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Speaker 3: for the Hair aside, not as much for the Trump side.

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Speaker 2: Well, on this idea of incumbency, there was an op

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Speaker 2: ed published in the Washington Postmark This and Today that

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Speaker 2: talked about how in one hundred and eighty eight years,

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Speaker 2: we've only seen one current sitting vice president actually win

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Speaker 2: the presidency. It was George H. W. Bush, And in

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Speaker 2: this op ed, he says Bush succeeded where other modern

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Speaker 2: vice presidents failed for one simple reason. Americans wanted a

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Speaker 2: third Reagan term. Today, no one wants another Biden term,

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Speaker 2: pointing out that Ronald Reagan left office with sixty three

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Speaker 2: percent approval and Biden has fifty seven percent disapproval. The

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Speaker 2: suggestion here is if voters wanted another Biden term, he

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Speaker 2: would still be the Democratic nominee. How do you think

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Speaker 2: about that? Is there a point there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there is a point. I think it's a great point.

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Speaker 3: And indeed we have to juxtappose will vibes went out,

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Speaker 3: will that enthusiasm, you know, mobiliking the base, the energy

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Speaker 3: in the base, will that propel Harris forward? That's a

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Speaker 3: question mark because right now, the fundamentals, per this article,

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Speaker 3: the fundamentals are in Trump's favor, basically historically lower, almost

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Speaker 3: historically low approval ratings, the primary issue being inflation, but

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Speaker 3: Trump being stronger than Harris on inflation, and so therefore

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Speaker 3: we need to wait and see a bit. I think

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Speaker 3: the numbers are a bit overstated for Harris at this point.

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Speaker 3: I think there'll be a burnoff. I think that we

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Speaker 3: have to wait a couple of weeks, probably after Labor Day,

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Speaker 3: let's say, into the end of that week. But yes,

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Speaker 3: it really is the vibes versus the fundamentals. We would

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Speaker 3: expect the fundamentals to win out, but we don't know.

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Speaker 2: All right, fair enough, Well, I want to talk more

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Speaker 2: about Donald Trump, because he actually sat down for an

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Speaker 2: interview with doctor Phil in recent days. It's starting to

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Speaker 2: trickle out today, and he specifically talked about bases of

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Speaker 2: voters that may or may not turn out for him.

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Speaker 7: Take a listen, Christians for whatever reason, don't vote very much.

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Speaker 7: You know, proportionately NRA people and people that feel very

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Speaker 7: strongly about the Second Amendment, they're not voters. I don't

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Speaker 7: know why. Maybe it's a rebellious straight and I said

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Speaker 7: to the Christians, we got to win this election. If

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Speaker 7: we win this election, I'll straighten everything out in less

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Speaker 7: than four years by a lot.

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Speaker 2: But as we think about some of these groups, Cliff

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Speaker 2: in the way in which we've seen a messaging policy

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Speaker 2: evolution from Donald Trump when it comes to say abortion,

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Speaker 2: just in the last few days, suggesting he'd be great

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Speaker 2: for reproductive rights, JD. Van saying Donald Trump has committed

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Speaker 2: to him that he would veto a federal abortion ban.

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Speaker 2: Does he risk alienating parts of his base, like evangelical

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Speaker 2: Christians with that kind of turn on that policy Specifically.

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Speaker 3: He's really worried about turnout. He's really worried about his

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Speaker 3: base turning up. But he also is worried about the middle.

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Speaker 3: And what he's doing right now is tacking to the middle.

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Speaker 3: He's trying to be more moderate in tone. Whether that works,

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Speaker 3: that's the million dollar question. But ultimately it's all going

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Speaker 3: to be about turnout.

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Speaker 2: Well, so on this abortion issue specifically, we have seen

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Speaker 2: it be a driving turnout force for Democrats and special

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Speaker 2: elections and others. Certainly in the midterms in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 2: Can he arrest that with this kind of policy shift

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Speaker 2: that he's seeming to try and turculate, leave it to

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Speaker 2: the states. I'm not for a federal ban. Can he

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Speaker 2: kind of stop that propellant force of women specifically being

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Speaker 2: driven to the poor.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, he wants to eat his cake, his cack to

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Speaker 3: excuse me, he wants to be on both sides of

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Speaker 3: the fence. Obviously he's worried about those moderate women in

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Speaker 3: suburbia that tend to be Republican. They are abortion orphans.

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Speaker 3: Let's say if the theme is is orphans ultimately, but

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Speaker 3: I would say the following it, I would say the

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Speaker 3: primary issue stills inflation. Obviously, abortion mobilizes especially the Democratic base,

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Speaker 3: and should be a worry in election of game adventures

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Speaker 3: for Trump. But it's still about inflation. We haven't heard

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Speaker 3: much from Trump talking about the economy inflation today.

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Speaker 2: Well, we know that he wins on inflation. He also

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Speaker 2: wins on the border consistently. We just have a minute

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Speaker 2: left here, Cliff. Other than abortion, what is Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: winning on? What issues? Do voters trust her with?

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Speaker 3: Healthcare is one, but obviously it's less important today than

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Speaker 3: it was a number of years ago. The primary democratic

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Speaker 3: issue today, which is the second issue in people's minds

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Speaker 3: in Americans minds, are threats to democracy. She far out strips,

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Speaker 3: far up paces Trump on that critical issue that's been

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Speaker 3: a Biden theme, primarily a Biden theme. Obviously Harris is

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Speaker 3: using as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and we heard some of that in her acceptance

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Speaker 2: speech last week, when she talked about Donald Trump as

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Speaker 2: an unserious man but described the consequences of him winning

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Speaker 2: this election as quite serious. Cliff Young of ipso's always

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Speaker 2: great to have you here in studio. Thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

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Speaker 1: rod Oro with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also

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Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: We have our eye on geopolitics, not just what's happening

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Speaker 2: in the Middle East, though certainly it's consequential and worth discussion, discussion.

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Speaker 2: We will do that in just a moment, but I

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Speaker 2: also want to talk about what's taking place in China

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Speaker 2: this week. A visit from US National Security Advisor Jake

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Speaker 2: Sullivan to Beijing will who'll be meeting with the Chinese

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Speaker 2: foreign minister, potentially even with Chinese President Xijinping himself. China,

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Speaker 2: for its part, says it's going to be bringing up

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Speaker 2: issues related to Taiwan and tariffs. But the question is

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Speaker 2: ever with visits like these, is whether or not there

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Speaker 2: will be an actual tangible outcome to these kind of talks,

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Speaker 2: or if they're just talking for the sake of doing so.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Ian Marlowe is here with me in our Washington,

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Speaker 2: d C. Studio now to help answer this question. He's

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Speaker 2: a senior reporter covering foreign policy for US here at Bloomberg. So, Ian,

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Speaker 2: what is the aim of this trip? Are we going

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Speaker 2: to see something firm that Sullivan will be taking away?

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Speaker 8: I assume no. I assume we're going to see much

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Speaker 8: of what we've seen over the last six months to

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Speaker 8: a year with this administration, which is sending senior delegations

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Speaker 8: over to try and to sort of maintain an acceptable

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Speaker 8: level of instability to some degree, because the US and

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Speaker 8: China do not agree across a range of fundamental issues.

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Speaker 8: The point now is to just manage those differences. And

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Speaker 8: I've been on some of these trips to China with

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Speaker 8: the Secretary of State and they're much the same. They

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Speaker 8: almost always say there's not going to be anything tangible

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Speaker 8: or concrete coming out of it, but the goal is

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Speaker 8: to keep the talks going. So I think that's to

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Speaker 8: some degree what we're seeing here.

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Speaker 2: I would be correct to say that this is the

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Speaker 2: first time we're seeing a Biden administration official make a

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Speaker 2: trip to China since Biden effectively made himself a lamb

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Speaker 2: duck president right and announced he's not seeking reelection. I

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Speaker 2: would just wonder how that might change the nature of

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Speaker 2: these conversations when it's kind of a notion we might

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Speaker 2: not be dealing with you a few months from now,

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Speaker 2: so why would we cooperate and collaborate.

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Speaker 9: At this point?

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I think so. I think there's definitely, like with

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Speaker 8: a lot of foreign policy at the moment, there's a

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Speaker 8: bit of a sort of Trump proofing idea here that

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Speaker 8: they're trying to solidify some gains to go through no

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Speaker 8: matter who wins in November. But I think there's still

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Speaker 8: always just with Jake Salvin, the National Security Advisor, I

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Speaker 8: think there's a lot of He's been doing these meetings

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Speaker 8: at a sort of regular cadence over the last few months, sorry,

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Speaker 8: the last year or so, with these senior Chinese officials,

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Speaker 8: and I think it's there is some stuff they do

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Speaker 8: want to continue pushing. There is China's economic aid to Russia,

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Speaker 8: which they worry has, you know, effectively given Russia more

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Speaker 8: of a fighting chance in Ukraine. They're still angry about that,

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Speaker 8: but they still aren't able to kind of twist China's

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Speaker 8: arm to some degree to get them to stop that aid.

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Speaker 8: That's the main thing, and then the other stuff is

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Speaker 8: really just it's sort of the laundry list of things

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Speaker 8: you see in these US China meetings, Taiwan tariffs and

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Speaker 8: other things. So I think there is still stuff to discuss.

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Speaker 8: It's just I don't think we're seeing any fundamental change

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Speaker 8: in either side's position right now.

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Speaker 2: All right, Well, that reminds me of some other talks

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Speaker 2: that are happening in which we haven't really seen many

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Speaker 2: changes in either side's position, which is the ongoing ceasefire

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Speaker 2: negotiations between Israel and Hamas and the other mediators including

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Speaker 2: the US did have success in rescuing a hostage from

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Speaker 2: Gaza today that was being held by Hamas, a fifty

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Speaker 2: two year old man, a father of eleven. There are

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Speaker 2: still one hundred more being held, either alive or otherwise ian.

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Speaker 2: What is the feeling today on the likelihood of a

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Speaker 2: deal to bring them home or are hostage? Family is

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Speaker 2: only going to get the kind of closure or their

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Speaker 2: own family members back that they need by these kind

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Speaker 2: of individual rescue operations that we know are very complicated

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Speaker 2: and have taken a lot of time to carry out.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, the US has been putting a lot of pressure

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Speaker 8: on Israel to try and bring home a deal here

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Speaker 8: there is the complicating factory that they're dealing both with

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Speaker 8: a country that has a very complicated internal political dynamic.

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Speaker 8: You know, Netnyaho has a fragile coalition, some of whom

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Speaker 8: some of the members of whom do not want a

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Speaker 8: ceasefire at all. And the other side of the table

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Speaker 8: there is a terrorist group, some of whom Israel has

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Speaker 8: assassinated over the last several months. So it's a fragile

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Speaker 8: dynamic that I believe ever since Biden kind of stepped

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Speaker 8: out and owned the ceasefire process, you know, laying out

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Speaker 8: this three stage proposal that he said Israel had agreed

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Speaker 8: to and then it was just on Hamas to agree to.

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Speaker 8: Ever since that, the US has been very positive, sort

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Speaker 8: of endlessly optimistic about the deal and the potential of

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Speaker 8: a deal. So we hear language like a bridging proposal,

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Speaker 8: or it's a final bridging proposal. We just need to

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Speaker 8: close the gaps on certain things. But really you're talking

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Speaker 8: about two sort of you know, fundamentally opposed, you know,

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Speaker 8: parties that are at war, some of whom have hostages,

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Speaker 8: the other whom's assassinating the negotiators for the other. And

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Speaker 8: I think we're still quite far. I mean, it's a

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Speaker 8: sense that there is a sense in Washington that this

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Speaker 8: deal is still not likely to come to fruition anytime soon.

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Speaker 8: And to some degree it's you know, for net Yahou,

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Speaker 8: keeping the negotiations spinning out while he's also doing military

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Speaker 8: operations is sort of to their benefit some degree. The

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Speaker 8: only pressure he feels, to some degree, faces is on

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Speaker 8: the hostages and from the hostage families within Israel.

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Speaker 2: But do you think that's also true of other Middle

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Speaker 2: East players? Largely the idea that because all of these

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Speaker 2: different actors are still either physically or otherwise at the

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Speaker 2: negotiating table that is preventing further escalation when it comes

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Speaker 2: to Israel and Hesbala, even though we did see those

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Speaker 2: preempti strikes from Israel over the weekend, or Israel and

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Speaker 2: Iran directly for that matter, how does that wider backdrop

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Speaker 2: of the other proxies and players fit into these ongoing

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Speaker 2: conversations around a ceasefire with the moss.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I think the US believes that the

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Speaker 8: ceasefire deal and negotiations remains sort of the primary driver,

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Speaker 8: the only thing that can sort of end the sort

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Speaker 8: of endless cycle we've seen of escalation on Israel side,

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Speaker 8: escalation on Iran's side and through its proxies. So it

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Speaker 8: remains the sort of core focus. But at the same time,

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Speaker 8: there's now this sort of freezon of danger around the region,

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Speaker 8: of these of this sort of looming retaliation from Iran

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Speaker 8: that we haven't fully seen for the assassination of the

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Speaker 8: Hamas political chief in Tehran, which was quite bold obviously

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Speaker 8: and was bound to lead to something. So I think

436
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Speaker 8: at the moment there is still this general sense that

437
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 8: the region remains on edge, But to be honest, it

438
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 8: has remained on edge. You know for almost a year now,

439
00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 8: since since October seventh, and both sides have managed to

440
00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 8: calibrate their responses to the point where there isn't this

441
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:41,159
Speaker 8: sort of like dangerous escalatory cycle that gets out of

442
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:44,439
Speaker 8: control and then you see sort of Israel and Iran

443
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 8: in direct confrontation in the US getting pulled into that.

444
00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 8: So I think that that remains a possibility, but I

445
00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 8: think a lot of people are sort of confident that

446
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 8: it's been managed to some degree.

447
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: All Right, Ian, thank you so much for being here.

448
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 2: Ian Marlow is a senior reporter covering foreign policy for

449
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 2: US here at Bloomberg, and we want to ge continue

450
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 2: this conversation now and bring in Carmel arbit two Balance

451
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:05,600
Speaker 2: of Power here on Bloomberg TV and radio. She is

452
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 2: a senior fellow for the Middle East Programs at the

453
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 2: Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Carmel,

454
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 2: welcome back. It's always good to have you. I'd like

455
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 2: to begin with just a point that Ian was just

456
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 2: making about how the US has seemed endlessly optimistic about

457
00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:23,880
Speaker 2: the prospects for a ceasefire agreement getting done. We've had

458
00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:25,679
Speaker 2: a number of head fakes. It feels like and it

459
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 2: never actually results in a finalized deal in which all

460
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 2: parties agree. So do you see that as the Biden

461
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 2: administration the US being disingenuous with the actual state of play,

462
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:40,920
Speaker 2: or is it that they do feel like they keep

463
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,239
Speaker 2: getting close and then the rug gets pulled out from

464
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,200
Speaker 2: under them.

465
00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:47,280
Speaker 9: Thanks so much. I think it's a combination of the two.

466
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 9: The Biden administration has made clear that it is deeply

467
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 9: committed to bringing about this ceasefire, and so they're very

468
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 9: invested in that outcome and are bringing that optimism to

469
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 9: the table to try to cajole the parties along. I

470
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 9: think every time they think they get closer or they

471
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 9: find a resolution on one issue, another issue comes up.

472
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 9: Eventually there's going to be a cease fire, without a doubt.

473
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 9: The question really is one of timing. One negotiator described

474
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,080
Speaker 9: the process at this moment as artificial respiration. I think

475
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:24,479
Speaker 9: that's a little negative, but reflects how negotiators are feeling

476
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 9: that they're breathing and chugging along here, but that it's

477
00:24:27,920 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 9: not achieving the breakthrough that they had hoped for at

478
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 9: this stage.

479
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 2: So if you do operate under this assumption that eventually

480
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 2: there will be a cease fire. It is just a

481
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: question of when. What would your bet be on when

482
00:24:40,359 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 2: at this time? Kermeal, because the longer this draws on,

483
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 2: the closer we get to an election here in the

484
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 2: US and a new player potentially coming in who could

485
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,719
Speaker 2: completely change the game theoretically, at least the policy position

486
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,480
Speaker 2: of the US and the way in which they're trying

487
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 2: to exercise leverage in all of this. Is this something

488
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: that realistically can happen before November.

489
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 9: I think it's certainly possible for it to happen by November,

490
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 9: but there are significant factors that are pulling both parties

491
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 9: away from achieving agreement. You have, on the one hand, Natayah,

492
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 9: who sees the prospect of a Trump administration as a

493
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:18,160
Speaker 9: positive outcome for him, who might want to take that

494
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 9: gamble as he thinks through negotiations and what types of

495
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 9: concessions he might have to make. On the other hand,

496
00:25:25,040 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 9: you have Sinoar, who sees the prospect of a regional

497
00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 9: war is strengthening his hand. And so you have two

498
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:35,920
Speaker 9: leaders who have really conflicting political interests, whose negotiators who

499
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 9: are working for them keep coming closer and closer to

500
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,160
Speaker 9: an agreement. And yet the leaders themselves keep pulling back,

501
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 9: so I think it is certainly in the realm of possibility.

502
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 9: What we're hearing is that they keep getting closer. And

503
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 9: the two main sticking points right now are over Israel's

504
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,720
Speaker 9: continued military presence in Gaza, which is key for Nata

505
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 9: Naho and something that Hamas and Egypt really are opposed to.

506
00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 9: But we continue to see forward momentum on questions like

507
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 9: the identity and number of hostages that will be released,

508
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 9: or the identity and number of Palestinium prisoners that will

509
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 9: be released. So we see them getting very close. It's possible,

510
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 9: but the timeline really is a big question.

511
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 2: Well, and to ask you a different version of the question,

512
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: I just asked Ian, to what extent do you feel

513
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 2: that these conversations as close as they may be getting,

514
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 2: or the ebbs and flows, or what is actually preventing

515
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:31,000
Speaker 2: the retaliation that's been expected by Iran and Hesbela for

516
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 2: well over a month now and reaction to the assassinations

517
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 2: of a Hesbela and Hamas leader back in July and

518
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,639
Speaker 2: quick succession. We obviously saw Israel trying to thwart an

519
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,080
Speaker 2: attempt by Hesbela. They say over this past weekend, But

520
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 2: I can't imagine that was really it carmeal. How does

521
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 2: the action of Hesbela and Iran moving forward have a

522
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,840
Speaker 2: through line to what's happening with Hamas and Israel and

523
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 2: the mediators at the table.

524
00:26:57,240 --> 00:27:01,160
Speaker 9: Yeah, so their regional conflict has been eating up slowly

525
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 9: and continually. So what we saw over the weekend was

526
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 9: kind of a moderated escalation where there was a significant

527
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 9: strike by Israel but yet limited in range. It really

528
00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 9: focused on the border areas and similarly in attack by

529
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 9: Hesbula that was larger than what we've seen in the past.

530
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 9: At the same time, we haven't seen either country push

531
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 9: forward into a full blown war. The US and regional

532
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,000
Speaker 9: allies are really committed to keeping the temperature low to

533
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 9: moving forward with the ceasefire. Israel has significant constraints as

534
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 9: it deals with the multi front war. It is in

535
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,640
Speaker 9: the interest of everyone to try to keep this quiet.

536
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:43,479
Speaker 9: That being said, it's not going to go away. This

537
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:45,879
Speaker 9: isn't going to just resolve itself on its own. I

538
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 9: think what we're going to continue to see is this

539
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 9: kind of wiet staging of escalation over time that we're

540
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 9: already in but not necessarily a full boil all at once.

541
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 2: Carmille, I also want to ask you about something that

542
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: the Trump campaign is paying a lot of attention to

543
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: this week, which is the third year mark of the

544
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 2: US withdrawal from Afghanistan yesterday, of course, marking three years

545
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 2: since thirteen US service members were killed in the suicide

546
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 2: bombing at the airport there. I asked Jennifer kavanav Defense

547
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,199
Speaker 2: Priorities last night about whether or not it is a

548
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 2: fair characterization to describe the events we have seen take

549
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 2: place over the last three years, including these escalating tensions

550
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 2: in the Middle East, if part of the blame does

551
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 2: lie on that rather chaotic withdrawal from the US that

552
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 2: we saw back in twenty twenty one. This is what

553
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:34,120
Speaker 2: she told me, and then I'd like your take.

554
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 10: Certainly, how left much to be desired in terms of

555
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 10: its organization and communication with allies and partners, But it

556
00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 10: hasn't really damaged US relationships with any of its European

557
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 10: or Asian all alex Air partners. It didn't really have

558
00:28:51,560 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 10: any ramifications in the Middle East, And in terms of

559
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,600
Speaker 10: the kind of broader terror threat that people have warned about,

560
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 10: that too hasn't really affected US national security, and in fact,

561
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 10: the intelligence apparatus has shown its proficiency in detecting these

562
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 10: attacks ahead of time. So I think it's a little

563
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 10: bit of a red herring.

564
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: Pil if you agree with that, and if we're assigning

565
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 2: blame here to what extent you believe that this was

566
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 2: just a Biden administration problem versus responsibility that may lie

567
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 2: with Donald Trump himself having agreed to the pull out

568
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:28,000
Speaker 2: with the Taliban during his administration.

569
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 9: Yeah, I think there's plenty of blame to go around,

570
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 9: and both administrations are complicit in the withdrawal from Afghanistan

571
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:39,600
Speaker 9: and the events that transpired afterwards. As you said, the

572
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 9: Trump administration had drawn down troops and committed to the

573
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 9: withdrawal on the timeline that Biden then executed. I think

574
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 9: what we're seeing right now in an election season is

575
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 9: that the Trump administration, excuse me, the Trump campaign sees

576
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 9: an opportunity here to really seize on this issue, to

577
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 9: point to one of the kind of gaffes of the

578
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 9: Biden Harris administration as a way to gain political leverage.

579
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 9: But there's plenty of blame to go around for both

580
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 9: campaigns on this issue.

581
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,200
Speaker 2: But when it comes to what they are actually being

582
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 2: blamed for to kind of the point I was asking

583
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 2: Jennifer about as well. How much do you think of

584
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,200
Speaker 2: the intensified conflict, the outright conflict of course between Israel

585
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 2: and a moss the trading a fire with other Iranian proxies,

586
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: the general higher tension in the Middle East as a

587
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 2: whole is because of the pullout from Afghanistan, or do

588
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: you think that these things actually are not as related

589
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 2: as they may be made out to be.

590
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 9: Yeah, I would actually really differentiate between what happened in

591
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 9: Afghanistan and the timing of what happened and what's going

592
00:30:41,760 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 9: on right now between Gaza and Israel, because what you

593
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 9: have are two really distinct conflicts in some largely distinct

594
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 9: territory regionally, where we've seen kind of the US fight

595
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 9: against terror and broader interests in the Middle East that

596
00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:03,280
Speaker 9: it has sought to disengage from overtime have been unsuccessful.

597
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 9: But that's really the extent of the through line that

598
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 9: I would see there. I think what you have instead

599
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 9: is a conflict between Israel and the Palestinians that has

600
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 9: been going on since the establishment of the Jewish state

601
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 9: that is being fueled by or run and by other

602
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 9: neighbors in the region. And at the same time, a

603
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 9: conflict that happened in Afghanistan, a war that has been

604
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 9: winding down, and the control of the Taliban that has

605
00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 9: continued to subjugate the rights of people in Afghanistan.

606
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:37,120
Speaker 2: All right, Canriel'll always appreciate your insight. Thank you so

607
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 2: much for joining us. That's Carmel Arbit of the Atlantic

608
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 2: Council joining us here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg

609
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,440
Speaker 2: TV and Radio. And we still have much more ahead.

610
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: We'll reassemble our political panel next on Bloomberg.

611
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

612
00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Amocar Play and

613
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 1: then roun Otto with the blue Burn Business app. Listen

614
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

615
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

616
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: I'm Kaylee lyin slam solo. Today is Joe Matthew takes

617
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 2: this Tuesday off. Welcome back to Balance of Power on

618
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. And it is on this Tuesday

619
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 2: that a new ad is running in battleground States now

620
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: by the Harris Campaign, titled Every Day. It focuses on

621
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 2: the economy, specifically and includes some of the policy proposals

622
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 2: that Kamala Harris outlined in North Carolina earlier this month.

623
00:32:31,640 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 2: When it comes to price gouging and housing, here's a

624
00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:35,959
Speaker 2: little bit of it.

625
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 6: I will be laser focused on creating opportunities for the

626
00:32:40,920 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 6: middle class that advance their economic security, stability, and dignity.

627
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 6: If you want to know what someone cares about, look

628
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 6: who they fight for. I'll try fights pavillionaires and large corporations.

629
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 6: I will fight to give money back to working and

630
00:32:58,480 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 6: middle class Americans.

631
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,040
Speaker 2: So she says she'll be fighting for working class, middle

632
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 2: class Americans. But a lot of these ideas still are

633
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 2: quite broad in nature. We don't have many specifics on

634
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: how exactly she does that. Granted, specifics are missing in

635
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 2: some of the policy platforms of the Republican ticket as well.

636
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 2: So let's bring in a Republican and a Democrat now

637
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 2: to discuss a Republican panelist today, Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics

638
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: contributor and stone Court Capital partner, together with Democratic Strategistim

639
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 2: Jim Kessler, who is the executive vice president at Third Way. Rick,

640
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 2: I'll come to you first, as you've obviously had plenty

641
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 2: of experience putting campaign ads together as well. Is this

642
00:33:37,880 --> 00:33:40,600
Speaker 2: a message that is going to resonate considering the audience

643
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 2: where it is targeted, the battleground states that ultimately will

644
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 2: decide the outcome of this election or those do those voters,

645
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 2: the ones who could swing either way, those just thousands

646
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: realistically we're talking about niche of those states needs something

647
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 2: more specific.

648
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 4: That's a good question, Kaylee. I think that one of

649
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 4: the things that this represents is the big pivot away

650
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,200
Speaker 4: from the national campaign that Kamala Harris has been running,

651
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 4: the big convention consolidation of power within the Democratic Party,

652
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 4: and really finally targeting even more so the suburbs in

653
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 4: key cities around these targeted six states, seven states, you know,

654
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 4: places like Pittsburgh suburbs, Philadelphia suburbs, Maricopa County, Arizona. And

655
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,719
Speaker 4: they are talking to an issue that a lot of

656
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 4: voters have concerns about it, especially those voters that might

657
00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 4: be willing to vote Democrat, who maybe are independent or

658
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 4: unaligned voters. And that is on housing, and that is

659
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:37,000
Speaker 4: probably one of the areas where she's actually presented the

660
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 4: most specific kind of proposals that she's talked about. Two

661
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 4: Thursdays ago during her announcement of her economic plan, and

662
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 4: so this might be the one area where she's got

663
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 4: a little teeth to bear, and I think that that

664
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,000
Speaker 4: gives her substance. It gives her something that sounds like

665
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:59,240
Speaker 4: she's got well thought out proposals that don't really sound

666
00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 4: too cradic in nature. And so I think she's trying

667
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 4: to do a lot of things at one time. But

668
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,760
Speaker 4: you're right, they are chasing tens of thousands of votes

669
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,919
Speaker 4: in these key locations, and this is where the rest

670
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 4: of the campaign is going to be seen, not by

671
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 4: the rest of the country, but by these suburban locations

672
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 4: around these major cities in the key swing states.

673
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 9: Well.

674
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:25,919
Speaker 2: And it is worth pointing out in these key swing

675
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 2: states that Donald Trump and Jade Vance are spending a

676
00:35:28,719 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 2: great deal of time in them this week. In fact,

677
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 2: Jade Vance is speaking in Michigan right now, also on

678
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 2: the subject of the economy. But Jim, before we heed

679
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: back to what the Republicans are proposing and think more

680
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 2: about Harris and the language we just heard her use

681
00:35:41,360 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 2: in this ad talking about being for the middle class,

682
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: it does sound pretty similar to the message we've gotten

683
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:51,239
Speaker 2: from the president she has served with over the last

684
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,279
Speaker 2: three and a half years. Joe Biden, how often have

685
00:35:53,360 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 2: we heard him say the middle class built America and

686
00:35:56,360 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: unions built the middle class. Kamala Harris trying to paint

687
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: herself as union friendly as well. Is she creating enough

688
00:36:01,800 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 2: distance separation between the economy she would like to create

689
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:06,839
Speaker 2: in the policy proposals she would like to use to

690
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 2: do it versus the one Joe Biden has created, knowing

691
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 2: that he didn't very well get good marks on that

692
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 2: while he was still in this race.

693
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,360
Speaker 11: I think there's some cheap differences between the way Harris

694
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 11: talks about the economy and Biden. One is it just

695
00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 11: feels a lot more modern when Harris is talking about

696
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 11: it and Biden's going back to you know what his

697
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:30,840
Speaker 11: dad used to tell him when you know, in the

698
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 11: nineteen forties and nineteen fifties, Like I just felt very nostalgic.

699
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 11: I am struck by how Harris's language and proposals are

700
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 11: very centrist Democratic with a populist chaser there. So opportunity, economy,

701
00:36:48,800 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 11: those were not Biden words. Those are Harris words. You know,

702
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,880
Speaker 11: security and stability for the middle class. Again, there's a

703
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 11: Harris words. There's aren't Biden words. And you know, in

704
00:36:59,840 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 11: terms of policy specifics, if you go back to twenty sixteen,

705
00:37:04,200 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 11: Hillary Clinton had two hundred and sixty four policy ideas

706
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,959
Speaker 11: on a website, everything from Alzheimer's to Zeka. Donald Trump

707
00:37:11,040 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 11: had seven. So you know, this is not a quantity

708
00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 11: game out there. It's really about quality.

709
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 2: Well, okay, if it's not about quantity but quality, what

710
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 2: about the quality of ideas that actually are the same

711
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 2: that both candidates seem to be agreeing with, Like, for example,

712
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 2: Jim no tax on tips. It was Donald Trump's idea

713
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 2: first before it became Kamala Harris's. What distinction will voters

714
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 2: actually make in that regard if both candidates are saying

715
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 2: similar populist.

716
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 11: Things, right, And I just want to be clear, I

717
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:49,400
Speaker 11: don't love that idea from either candidate. Okay, this is

718
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 11: what Rick Davis was talking about. This is Nevada. You

719
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 11: know in some other places, but Nevada is very tip

720
00:37:55,960 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 11: centric state. Okay, So it's like, how are you getting

721
00:38:00,120 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 11: some younger voters, how are you getting service workers who

722
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 11: are who are relying on tips that are swing voters,

723
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 11: low propensity voters, and low information voters. So I do

724
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 11: think some of these ideas are like a direct play

725
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 11: for voters, and others are more broad economic ideas.

726
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 9: Well.

727
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 2: Novada of course one of the sun Belt states that

728
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 2: it does seem if polling is to be believed, Harris

729
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,759
Speaker 2: stands a better chance than Joe Biden did of carrying them.

730
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 2: He was very focused on the rest Belt and it

731
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 2: is another sun Belt state. Rick. We will see Harris

732
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:36,400
Speaker 2: and Walls spending a few days this week, beginning tomorrow,

733
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:40,080
Speaker 2: a bus tour in Georgia that will run through Thursday.

734
00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: What is the messaging that would actually put them over

735
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 2: the finish line in a state that, according to the

736
00:38:45,680 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 2: New York Times Sienna latest poll, Trump is up by

737
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 2: four It is within the margin of error. He does

738
00:38:51,400 --> 00:38:53,440
Speaker 2: have a little bit of beef if you will with

739
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 2: Governor Brian Kemp. How in play is Georgia really for Harris?

740
00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 2: What would it take for her to win? It is

741
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: this economic messaging and she's going to.

742
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,720
Speaker 4: Have to replicate some of the magic that Joe Biden

743
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 4: put onto the state in twenty twenty. It's not a

744
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 4: dissimilar election, not a dissimilar electorate. She has to sow

745
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 4: discontent with Republican voters. Obviously mentioned Donald Trump has a

746
00:39:19,680 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 4: love hate relationship with the GOP in Georgia, and so

747
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:24,480
Speaker 4: she's going to have to do what she can to

748
00:39:24,520 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 4: suppress that vote, keep Republicans thinking maybe Trump's not the

749
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 4: guy for them, and then at the same time do

750
00:39:31,719 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 4: everything she can to boost her base, because the reality

751
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 4: is this is going to be a base election in Georgia.

752
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,760
Speaker 4: More so than tipping the balance with some suburban voters

753
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 4: around Atlanta. She's going to need a bigger, bigger turnout,

754
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:47,800
Speaker 4: especially amongst African American voters that have really supplied the

755
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 4: wins in the past when they've had them for Democratic

756
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 4: Canada statewide.

757
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 2: Well, So, when we consider what plays to the base, Jim,

758
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 2: it does bring us to the abortion issue, something that

759
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:01,319
Speaker 2: we have seen does drive turnout, at least it did

760
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, it has in special elections in

761
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 2: the states in which the abortion question has been on

762
00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 2: the ballot. It also seems to be one that Donald

763
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:12,280
Speaker 2: Trump is trying to get more moderates in his corner

764
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,520
Speaker 2: on as well, with this kind of characterizing himself now

765
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:18,239
Speaker 2: as someone who will be great for women's and reproductive rates.

766
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 2: Jade Van's saying that Donald Trump has committed to him

767
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: that he would veto a federal abortion band. Do you

768
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 2: think these voters who may actually vote on this issue,

769
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:29,760
Speaker 2: a group of them who are driven to the polls

770
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 2: on this issue, will buy into that at all.

771
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 11: If you're driven by this issue, you are not going

772
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,959
Speaker 11: to buy into the change of position essentially of JD.

773
00:40:40,080 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 11: Vans and Donald Trump. If you go back in time

774
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 11: six weeks, there were two issues bedeviling each campaign. For

775
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,280
Speaker 11: the Biden campaign it was age and for the Trump

776
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:56,439
Speaker 11: campaign it was the Dobbs decision and abortion. Harris has

777
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:01,759
Speaker 11: solved the age issue, Republicans have not solved the abortion issue,

778
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 11: and Democrats have generally overperformed the polls and expectations in

779
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 11: every election since Dobs a few exceptions, but in almost everyone.

780
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 11: So I think Republicans have a right to be afraid.

781
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 2: Okay, well, Rick is the Republican I'd love for you

782
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 2: to weigh in on that, because we have been talking

783
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: about this issue being something that very much does dog

784
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,480
Speaker 2: the party in that it's very hard for them to

785
00:41:27,600 --> 00:41:30,479
Speaker 2: find a clear messaging line on this that seems to work,

786
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:32,600
Speaker 2: seems to stick. Do you think this one will this

787
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 2: leave it to the states. No, federal van is something

788
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:39,200
Speaker 2: that Republicans can actually win on, not just Trump advance

789
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,920
Speaker 2: but others as well.

790
00:41:42,160 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this is an effort not to win

791
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 4: on it, but just to keep the pain down to

792
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 4: a short threshold for Republican candidates. And so, you know,

793
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 4: but like they have a few things going against some

794
00:41:52,760 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 4: One is they got a referendum in Arizona that's going

795
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 4: to turn out voters on the choice issue, and so

796
00:41:59,480 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 4: they're going to be fighting a two front war there.

797
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 4: The other thing I would remind everybody is there were

798
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,800
Speaker 4: a lot of Democrats who took advantage of the decision

799
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:11,080
Speaker 4: on the DOBS to generate wins in a lot of states.

800
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 4: But some of those wins came because they have a

801
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:17,319
Speaker 4: higher propensity voters than Republicans have in the off years,

802
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 4: especially they show up. And so this is an election

803
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 4: where I think you have to assume everybody's going to

804
00:42:22,520 --> 00:42:25,200
Speaker 4: show up, and so that advantage tends to get neutralized

805
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 4: a little bit, and so it tends to mask the

806
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:30,920
Speaker 4: victories that a lot of pro choice voters have been

807
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 4: claiming for the last four years. But they should be

808
00:42:34,280 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 4: cautious because those victories may not show up on election

809
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 4: day in twenty twenty four, just because everybody else.

810
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 2: Is all right, fair enough, Jim, in our final minute

811
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 2: with you, just on this notion of voters potentially being

812
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:51,279
Speaker 2: turned to the polls, especially in states where abortion is

813
00:42:51,280 --> 00:42:53,640
Speaker 2: on the ballot, like Arizona or even Florida, does it

814
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 2: make you reconsider as well, who can win the congressional

815
00:42:56,520 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 2: races in those states. What Democrats' odds maybe, say, flipping

816
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 2: Senator Scott's seat in Florida blue.

817
00:43:06,840 --> 00:43:10,480
Speaker 11: So that could happen if there's a wave. Certainly right

818
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 11: now there there doesn't appear to be a blue wave,

819
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:16,920
Speaker 11: although the odds of a blue wave are certainly greater

820
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:21,319
Speaker 11: than it was five weeks ago. If you talk to

821
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 11: Democrat congressional democrats, they are far more optimistic about their

822
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 11: chances to win battleground states and pick up, you know,

823
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,919
Speaker 11: some tough races than they were five or six weeks ago.

824
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 11: So the optimism is there, the money's there. It feels

825
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 11: like there's some momentum. Florida's tough. Texas is tough, not impossible.

826
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 2: All right, Jim Kessler and Rick Davis our political panel today,

827
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 2: Thank you both so much for joining me. Appreciate your

828
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 2: time and we're going to continue this conversation on the

829
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:59,120
Speaker 2: down ballot races to watch what the actual composition of

830
00:43:59,200 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 2: Congress could look like after November. Is that is just

831
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,440
Speaker 2: as important potentially as who's going to be president in

832
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 2: terms of the actual policy making we've been discussing. Aaron

833
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 2: Covey of the Cook Political Report, who focuses on congressional races,

834
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,120
Speaker 2: will be with me next here on Balance of Power.

835
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: So stick with us on Bloomberg TV and radio.

836
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

837
00:44:22,640 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

838
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 1: Roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also

839
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:31,919
Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

840
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:34,920
Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

841
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: Thirty Minding everyone, I am counting seventy days until the election.

842
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: Ten weeks from today is when voters will head to

843
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,160
Speaker 2: the polls. And while we spend a lot of our

844
00:44:45,160 --> 00:44:49,440
Speaker 2: time and energy talking about potential voter selection for president

845
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:51,759
Speaker 2: between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, it is worth noting

846
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 2: that depending on the state where they live, they will

847
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:58,720
Speaker 2: have a number of congressional candidates to consider. As well

848
00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 2: as they go to cast their vote, whether or not

849
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 2: they'll be splitting their ballots, voting R or D all

850
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 2: the way down. It is the composition of Congress we

851
00:45:06,440 --> 00:45:08,760
Speaker 2: have to consider as well, because whoever is elected president

852
00:45:09,239 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 2: will only have so much ability to accomplish their own

853
00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 2: agenda if they don't have congressional support. And that is

854
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,759
Speaker 2: where we go now to Aaron Covey, who is from

855
00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: the Cook Political Report for she's an editor and she

856
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 2: does focus specifically on congressional races. Erin Welcome back to

857
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV and Radio. Always great to have you here.

858
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 2: On balance of power. Just a few minutes ago, I

859
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 2: was speaking with Jim Kessler of Third Way, who said

860
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 2: that the chances of a sweep for Democrats are higher

861
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 2: today than they were five weeks ago when Joe Biden

862
00:45:37,960 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 2: was still in the race. But higher is one thing.

863
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: Higher to the point that it actually seems likely is

864
00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 2: entirely another. How have the last five weeks, in the

865
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 2: sudden energy and exuberance that has come along with the

866
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris presidential campaign, changed your own calculus about the

867
00:45:54,560 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 2: way in which the balance of power in Congress is

868
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,680
Speaker 2: likely to switch up?

869
00:46:00,000 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 4: November.

870
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 12: Hi, Kaylee, Well thanks for having me on. Yeah, so

871
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:08,319
Speaker 12: Harris's entrance into the race has reset it not just

872
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 12: for the presidential race, as you mentioned, but for the

873
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 12: down ballot races as well, and I think it has

874
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 12: had a much larger effect on the battle for control

875
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 12: of the House, where Republicans only have a four seat majority,

876
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 12: and so all cycle, I think the House has kind

877
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 12: of looked like the best area for Democrats to succeed

878
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:31,720
Speaker 12: in compared to the presidential race, where Biden was trailing

879
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 12: Trump for most of the cycle at the top of

880
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:37,240
Speaker 12: the ticket, and the Senate, which is where the map

881
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 12: currently is very good for Republicans this cycle, and so

882
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 12: even now, I think with Harris at the top of

883
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:47,440
Speaker 12: the ticket, Democrats would need to hold seats in Montana

884
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 12: and Ohio, which are states that Trump is still very

885
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:53,839
Speaker 12: likely to win by single or double digits this year,

886
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:57,799
Speaker 12: and so the Senate I think remains difficult for Democrats

887
00:46:57,840 --> 00:47:00,040
Speaker 12: for that reason, just because of the map, but the

888
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 12: House is a lot more feasible at this point. You know,

889
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 12: I saw him polling even before Biden's disastrous debate performance.

890
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 12: He was a huge anchor on House Democrats, and you know,

891
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:13,640
Speaker 12: these a lot of these House candidates were overperforming Biden

892
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:17,840
Speaker 12: pretty significantly, but it's very difficult at the end of

893
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 12: a day for a House candidate to separate themselves from

894
00:47:21,160 --> 00:47:23,080
Speaker 12: the top of the ticket, as they're so tied to

895
00:47:23,120 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 12: the national environment. You know, twenty twenty, we only saw

896
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,640
Speaker 12: sixteen congressional districts that voted one way for president and

897
00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 12: the other way for Congress, and so Biden could have

898
00:47:33,640 --> 00:47:37,080
Speaker 12: made it incredibly difficult for Democrats to take control of

899
00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,240
Speaker 12: the House. Now, with Harris at the top of the ticket,

900
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 12: they're in a much stronger position, and you know, we

901
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 12: still see control of the House to be close. You know,

902
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:47,400
Speaker 12: I think if you look at the races in our

903
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 12: toss up column, you'll see that neither party has a

904
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 12: clear edge, and it looks like it's going to come

905
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 12: down to the two dozen or so races that we

906
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:58,359
Speaker 12: consider pure toss ups. But Democrats now have a much

907
00:47:58,400 --> 00:48:02,320
Speaker 12: better shot at winning those toss races and gaining a majority.

908
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 2: Well, and let's talk about where those tass up braces

909
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:08,359
Speaker 2: are actually concentrated, because we know a lot of them

910
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 2: are in states like New York, for example, which is

911
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 2: a safely blue state. When it comes to the presidential election,

912
00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 2: but not so when it comes to the many different

913
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 2: districts that are in the Empire state. So how should

914
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:20,640
Speaker 2: we be thinking about that kind of dynamic era, and

915
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 2: knowing that the presidential candidates themselves are focusing a lot

916
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:27,880
Speaker 2: of their time, energy, and frankly resources into the swing

917
00:48:27,920 --> 00:48:31,000
Speaker 2: states that will decide the electoral college, We're not necessarily

918
00:48:31,040 --> 00:48:34,359
Speaker 2: going to see Paris or Trump frequently visiting New York, right,

919
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 2: And how does that affect the candidates that are running there?

920
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 12: Yeah, so you're right, Kaylee. It's an interesting dynamic. The

921
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:43,719
Speaker 12: reason that you have a lot of competitive races and

922
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 12: states like New York, California, Oregon, New Mexico is because

923
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,879
Speaker 12: of the fact that Republicans did pretty well in these

924
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 12: states here in the midterm cycle. Whereas Democrats did surprisingly

925
00:48:55,480 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 12: well in a lot of the swing states like Michigan

926
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 12: and Pennsylvania, Republicans made pretty significant gains in states like

927
00:49:01,640 --> 00:49:05,080
Speaker 12: California and New York. And so because of that, now

928
00:49:05,120 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 12: Republicans have several vulnerable incumbents who are in these states,

929
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,400
Speaker 12: and because of the fact that you don't have the

930
00:49:11,440 --> 00:49:16,319
Speaker 12: presidential candidates fighting the battlegrounds on that territory. I think

931
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:19,440
Speaker 12: that Republican incumbents are in a slightly better position to

932
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 12: separate themselves from the top of the tickets in some ways.

933
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 12: But at the end of the day, all of these

934
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 12: races have become so nationalized. I think it's going to

935
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 12: be difficult, whether you're a Republican member in California or

936
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:36,800
Speaker 12: Republican member in Michigan, to distance yourselves from the national dynamics.

937
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,319
Speaker 12: They'll certainly try to do so. And then on the

938
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:42,439
Speaker 12: other hand, most of the Democratic incumbents who are most

939
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 12: vulnerable are actually in some of the more competitive states.

940
00:49:45,960 --> 00:49:50,359
Speaker 12: So that includes Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina. These are

941
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 12: the states that have the most competitive districts that Democrats

942
00:49:54,000 --> 00:49:58,279
Speaker 12: currently hold, and so you know, it's a weird geographic

943
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,280
Speaker 12: divide here. I think that it could have a marginal

944
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 12: impact maybe on Republicans' ability to hold the House, which

945
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 12: couldn't matter if control of the House is decided on

946
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 12: the margins, which we think it will be. But I

947
00:50:10,520 --> 00:50:12,640
Speaker 12: do think at the end of the day, it is

948
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,840
Speaker 12: very difficult as a member of the House and certainly

949
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:19,320
Speaker 12: as a House candidate, to separate yourselves from the national

950
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 12: environment and from the top of the ticket.

951
00:50:22,680 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 2: Well, I want to talk about the Senate as well,

952
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 2: and I know you touched on it in your first answer, Aaron,

953
00:50:26,600 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 2: this idea that it still is going to be incredibly

954
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,080
Speaker 2: difficult from a map perspective for Democrats to keep control

955
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:35,160
Speaker 2: of the Senate, given the vulnerability of Senator Shared Brown

956
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:38,279
Speaker 2: in Ohio and John Tester in Montana. But how do

957
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 2: you think their odds have changed with now Harris at

958
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 2: the top of the ticket. Do they have a greater

959
00:50:43,080 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 2: likelihood of holding on to their seats or if there

960
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:48,799
Speaker 2: is any way for the Democrats to keep hold of

961
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 2: the Senate, do you think it's likely going to require

962
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 2: them flipping a seat that right now isn't actually seen,

963
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:57,400
Speaker 2: at least in the prevailing thought as easily flippable, like

964
00:50:57,400 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 2: in Florida or Texas.

965
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:00,560
Speaker 3: Yeah.

966
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:03,320
Speaker 12: So, I think it is true that Harris has had

967
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 12: a positive effect on almost all of these down ballot

968
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 12: races across the country because she has injected new energy

969
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 12: into these Democratic base voters. And there was a question

970
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 12: when Biden was at the top of the ticket about

971
00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 12: whether a lot of these Democratic voters would even turned out.

972
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:21,640
Speaker 12: It wasn't a question of whether they were going to

973
00:51:21,719 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 12: vote for Trump, but it was a question of whether

974
00:51:23,760 --> 00:51:25,439
Speaker 12: they were going to vote at all, which of course

975
00:51:25,520 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 12: had a trickled out effect on the Senate races and

976
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,399
Speaker 12: the House races as well. So yes, I do think

977
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 12: she has maybe given Democrats a better slightly better chance

978
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 12: in Ohio and in Montana. But these are both still

979
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 12: very difficult states for them, you know, I think they

980
00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:43,759
Speaker 12: have They certainly have a better chance in Ohio. I

981
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,839
Speaker 12: would say we have both of these states rated as

982
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 12: toss up races. But I think Ohio, just at a

983
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 12: fundamental level, this is a state that Trump won by

984
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:57,400
Speaker 12: about eight points in twenty twenty and twenty sixteen, whereas

985
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:01,480
Speaker 12: Montana Trump won this state by digits in the teams

986
00:52:01,520 --> 00:52:04,080
Speaker 12: for the last couple of cycles. So just in terms

987
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 12: of the fundamentals of these states, Republicans have a slightly

988
00:52:08,719 --> 00:52:11,960
Speaker 12: better chance in Montana. But then if you're looking at

989
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 12: the rest of the map, you're right, they do have

990
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 12: potential offensive opportunities in Texas and in Florida. Now you know,

991
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 12: these are both states that we expect Trump to win.

992
00:52:22,520 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 12: Trump only won them by single digits in twenty twenty,

993
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 12: but by about mid single digits, and so I would

994
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 12: be surprised if Harris managed to win either. I think

995
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 12: they're going to be closer, and I think we're you know,

996
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 12: in twenty twenty two, we saw Republicans do really well

997
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 12: in Texas and Florida. I think it's going to be

998
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 12: more similar to twenty twenty, but that still might not

999
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:45,680
Speaker 12: be enough for these Democratic Senate candidates to unseat Republican incumbents.

1000
00:52:45,760 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 12: So in Texas you have Ted Cruz, who was up

1001
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,440
Speaker 12: for reelection, and obviously we all remember in twenty eighteen,

1002
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 12: the Democratic nominee there Better o' work only came a

1003
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 12: couple of points away from unseating him, but that was

1004
00:52:56,760 --> 00:53:00,360
Speaker 12: in a cycle that was uniquely good for Democrats. And

1005
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 12: we're going to have a much more a little much

1006
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:05,719
Speaker 12: more even environment this time, and so that makes the

1007
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:09,239
Speaker 12: Democratic nominee, Colin Alread's task a little bit harder. And

1008
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 12: then in Florida, here this is a state that used

1009
00:53:12,000 --> 00:53:16,040
Speaker 12: to be quite competitive at the federal level in presidential races,

1010
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 12: but has moved towards Republicans pretty dramatically over the last

1011
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:21,719
Speaker 12: couple of cycles. So, you know, I think probably this

1012
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,000
Speaker 12: is still a state that we're going to see Trump

1013
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 12: winning by single digits. I don't think we're going to

1014
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 12: see him carrying Florida by double digits, certainly, and especially

1015
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 12: now with Harris at the top of the ticket, but

1016
00:53:31,719 --> 00:53:33,880
Speaker 12: that is going to make it difficult for the Democratic

1017
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:36,880
Speaker 12: nominee there to outperform Harris.

1018
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:41,439
Speaker 2: All right, erin, and finally, before we let you go,

1019
00:53:41,560 --> 00:53:43,200
Speaker 2: this is some other news that I think took some

1020
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 2: of us a back today, but maybe won't be that

1021
00:53:45,560 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 2: surprising to you. I'm not sure Trump's transition team, according

1022
00:53:49,440 --> 00:53:51,359
Speaker 2: to the campaign, is going to be co chaired by

1023
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 2: two former Democrats, Robert F. Kennedy Junior, who of course

1024
00:53:54,800 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 2: just suspended his presidential campaign, and former Democratic Congresswoman Tolsi Gabber.

1025
00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,720
Speaker 2: Are you surprised by this or should we not actually

1026
00:54:03,760 --> 00:54:06,840
Speaker 2: be considering these people as former Democrats because they are

1027
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:10,280
Speaker 2: so now far removed from where the party finds itself today.

1028
00:54:11,840 --> 00:54:14,920
Speaker 12: Yeah, it's a good question, you know. I think Tulci Gabbard,

1029
00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:18,920
Speaker 12: obviously she ran for the Democratic presidential nomination twenty twenty

1030
00:54:18,960 --> 00:54:21,640
Speaker 12: and used to be a Democratic congresswoman, but I think

1031
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:24,880
Speaker 12: she has moved pretty consistently to the right over the

1032
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:28,879
Speaker 12: past couple of years, and I'm not sure that her

1033
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:33,839
Speaker 12: involvement with his campaign is going to have a significant impact, though,

1034
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:37,240
Speaker 12: you know, it could have a marginal impact with undecided voters.

1035
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 12: I think we've seen the number of undecided voters has

1036
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 12: certainly shrunk since Harris got in the race. You know,

1037
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:46,800
Speaker 12: before what we were seeing was that Trump was performing

1038
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:51,280
Speaker 12: about steady, but Biden's numbers were dropping. Now we see

1039
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:55,640
Speaker 12: that Harris has kind of consolidated Democratic support and Democratic

1040
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 12: leaning independent support, and so now the number of undecided

1041
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 12: voters who might vote for some of these third party

1042
00:55:02,800 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 12: candidates who are still on the ballot, that number has shrunk.

1043
00:55:06,440 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 12: So they're both both candidates are fighting over a pretty

1044
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:12,800
Speaker 12: small group of voters at this point. So who knows.

1045
00:55:12,840 --> 00:55:17,400
Speaker 12: Maybe Gabbard and rfk's involvement in Trump's campaign could sway

1046
00:55:17,719 --> 00:55:21,120
Speaker 12: enough voters to make a key difference in the battleground states,

1047
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,000
Speaker 12: but I don't think it's going to have ultimately a

1048
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:25,759
Speaker 12: huge impact on the contours of this.

1049
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:26,719
Speaker 4: Race, all right.

1050
00:55:26,760 --> 00:55:29,200
Speaker 2: Aaron Covey of the Cook Political Report, always great to

1051
00:55:29,200 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 2: get your analysis. Thank you so much, appreciate your insight

1052
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 2: into the down ballot races. We should be watching, and

1053
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:35,840
Speaker 2: I would point out that we are still in the

1054
00:55:35,880 --> 00:55:38,680
Speaker 2: middle of primary season that will decide ultimately who the

1055
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:41,880
Speaker 2: final general election candidates are in a number of these states,

1056
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:45,840
Speaker 2: including next week after Labor Day, on September third, the

1057
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 2: Senate and House primaries take place in Massachusetts, and for

1058
00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:52,560
Speaker 2: our listeners in Massachusetts and all of New England here

1059
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio. Starting on September third, how convenient you

1060
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,000
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1061
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:02,400
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1062
00:56:02,520 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 2: business news from the financial center of New England. Of course,

1063
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:07,759
Speaker 2: will on Balance of Power have all the politics news,

1064
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:11,000
Speaker 2: including the results of those primaries cover for you as well. Again,

1065
00:56:11,040 --> 00:56:13,879
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Radio is moving to ninety two nine FM at

1066
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:16,520
Speaker 2: noon on the day after Labor Day.

1067
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:23,440
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1068
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,400
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1069
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1070
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1071
00:56:32,680 --> 00:56:34,080
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