Speaker 1: Check it down man.
Speaker 2: Monday morning, August nineteenth, twenty twenty four, it is the
Speaker 2: Beating the Book Podcast, kil Alexander, and it's time for
Speaker 2: the Major League Baseball Q three MLB Derivatives Betting Show.
Speaker 2: I probably said those words out of order, but you
Speaker 2: get the idea. This is the longest running series in
Speaker 2: the history of the Beating the Book Podcast, even longer
Speaker 2: than the megapod and Guessing lines, which of course are
Speaker 2: coming up in a couple of weeks. And as always
Speaker 2: throughout its entire history, my dog throughout this all he's Batman.
Speaker 2: I'm Robin smart Porch at everybody base Winner from an
Speaker 2: undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. What's happened to Mark?
Speaker 1: Oh? I'm enjoying this. I enjoy your intro to you.
Speaker 1: It always is so fun. And I jokingly call you
Speaker 1: the voice of sports betting, but I really mean that.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you're not the voice of sports betting,
Speaker 1: who the hell is So I say that you're the
Speaker 1: voice of sports betting, and you are because I said it, gil.
Speaker 2: Oh, thank you. And if you said it, you said
Speaker 2: and that's that it's done. I don't have an alternative.
Speaker 2: I'm trying to think who would be the alternative. I
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Somebody mayby, you know, Ben Ben Wilson has a really
Speaker 1: good voice, but he's just been He's just the baby.
Speaker 1: You know. We've been doing this for the last forty years, Gil,
Speaker 1: you know.
Speaker 2: But this podcast is older than he is. For God's sakes,
Speaker 2: he's twelve.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's twelve years.
Speaker 2: He's great. He'll be the most famous person at VISA when.
Speaker 1: He does have a good voice. I don't know. I
Speaker 1: think I think I would vote for your voice over
Speaker 1: his voice, as much as I love his voice.
Speaker 2: That's the end of the podcast. Everybody, thank you. Let's
Speaker 2: be wonderful. Thank you, Mark, You're very kind. Let us
Speaker 2: begin as we always do, so these are going to
Speaker 2: get more proprietary as this show goes on, right, These
Speaker 2: are going to be more proprietary as these shows go on.
Speaker 2: As the show goes on, we'll get to five innings,
Speaker 2: first five's, we'll get to first inning bets. We start though,
Speaker 2: with the more common one, which is all right, as
Speaker 2: we round the quarter pole here, right, because we just
Speaker 2: passed the quarter pole mark less than forty games now
Speaker 2: left in the Major League Baseball season. This is the
Speaker 2: Bizarro exercise. You've been on every one of these teams
Speaker 2: on the money line every single game, whether they're a
Speaker 2: favorite or a dog. Who mark do you have as
Speaker 2: the most profitable team in all of baseball? We have
Speaker 2: a new one, the Guardians. Well what I have, Oh,
Speaker 2: it Covers their second. This is these numbers to me,
Speaker 2: comes from Covers. They have the Milwaukee Brewers as number one.
Speaker 1: Oh, it's really close. It's neck and ex So this
Speaker 1: ghost comes from killersports dot Com. I really like their
Speaker 1: Those guys are good guys.
Speaker 2: It's my buddy boss Sack.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, shout out to him for what he's put together,
Speaker 1: because it is. It is nice. They've changed the interface
Speaker 1: and it's it's beautiful. It literally is gorgeous. Not as
Speaker 1: good as your voice, but close. So we got Guardians.
Speaker 1: If you bet on them, I guess it's one hundred
Speaker 1: a game. You're thirteen forty eight up and then Brewers
Speaker 1: are thirteen twenty two. That's how close it is. Gil.
Speaker 2: They have it at Milwaukee fifteen and a half units up,
Speaker 2: Cleveland twelve and a half units up. So for them
Speaker 2: it's it's I mean, it's super close. When you look
Speaker 2: at out of the course of the whole season either way,
Speaker 2: Milwaukee the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear
Speaker 2: to quote the great l Cool Jay.
Speaker 1: It's such a trippy team too, because if you look
Speaker 1: at their components, like, oh gosh, you know, I'm looking
Speaker 1: at what I do when I run my Monty Carlos
Speaker 1: simulations is I have It's basically, you know, offensive production
Speaker 1: minus defensive runs allowed, if you will. And Milwaukee's like
Speaker 1: number eleven. And of course that's with the yellich out
Speaker 1: of the lineup and their components. But they've been doing
Speaker 1: it and Pat Murphy a great coach, He's been putting
Speaker 1: it together. I just still I don't know. And this
Speaker 1: is coming from a guy. Gil. I'm sitting on like
Speaker 1: a plus five fifty Brewers to win the division ticket.
Speaker 1: So I really like them at the beginning of the year.
Speaker 1: But I've got them about eleventh, Gil, So interesting.
Speaker 2: Don't you also have an a didn't you have them
Speaker 2: one to two exact of Milwaukee in somebody?
Speaker 1: I had Milwaukee in the Cubs. I don't know if
Speaker 1: that's that's gonna happen or not. I can tell you
Speaker 1: what the percentages is if you can fillibuster for a
Speaker 1: second based on my projections. For me, it's it's not
Speaker 1: going to happen. It looks more well, No, the Cubs
Speaker 1: Brewers Cubs forty two point two percent for that to happen.
Speaker 1: So I actually it is a favorite. I checked that.
Speaker 1: I take that back so that I don't know what
Speaker 1: it paid at the beginning of the year, but so
Speaker 1: it's the favorite in that division to happen right now.
Speaker 2: Gil Milwaukee, Cleveland, neck and neck, followed by some distance
Speaker 2: between these three teams. San Diego, Arizona, Kansas City. Washington
Speaker 2: at six is still the funny one right fifty six
Speaker 2: and sixty nine, But they've been a dog so often
Speaker 2: that they have gotten again bizarro exercise. I guess the question,
Speaker 2: as always with this is it's fun to talk about,
Speaker 2: but predictive wise, do you feel like Milwaukee, Cleveland, San Diego, Arizona,
Speaker 2: Kansas City, those five down the stretch will still be there?
Speaker 2: I kind of do.
Speaker 1: I think I think that they. I mean, are you
Speaker 1: talking about like traditional standings or you talk about like
Speaker 1: are they going to be the profitable the most profitable team? Well,
Speaker 1: because they built up such a such a portfolio today,
Speaker 1: so that they should be. I mean, I don't think
Speaker 1: that there's any glaring weakness with any of the teams.
Speaker 1: I think that when you stack them up against the Dodgers,
Speaker 1: if they're healthy, that's a big if. With the Dodgers
Speaker 1: and the Padres, then it starts to break down a
Speaker 1: little bit. But as far as what they've done from
Speaker 1: a profit standpoint, I don't think there's anything wrong with
Speaker 1: playing these teams. I know that you're kind of leveraged
Speaker 1: a little bit on the Royals a little bit. I
Speaker 1: guess the Royals Diamondbacks, don't. I don't hate that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've got the Diamondbacks best record at which is
Speaker 2: a number. I have number one seed at thirteen to
Speaker 2: one or twelve to one, number one seed National League.
Speaker 2: I have best record in Major League Baseball at forty
Speaker 2: to one. I have the Diamondbacks versus the Royals in
Speaker 2: the World Series at four hundred to one. How about
Speaker 2: that all? Well, that's that's yeah.
Speaker 1: That's a that's some that's some leverage there on the
Speaker 1: Diamondbacks scale. So that I bet you you didn't you
Speaker 1: weren't a big fan of what happened this weekend.
Speaker 2: No, I was not, But I mean Jeff Passing did
Speaker 2: you see this Jeff Passing tweet which I think was great.
Speaker 2: Jeff Passon put out a tweet last night which really
Speaker 2: expressed to me, I mean, beyond the numbers, we're going
Speaker 2: to look at here. Just like you know, I've been
Speaker 2: saying this is the year to take a long shot
Speaker 2: fly er on something because these teams are so bunched
Speaker 2: up it's incredible. Here's here's what Passen said. He goes,
Speaker 2: this is shaping up to be the weirdest. I'll get
Speaker 2: you exact words here. This is shaping up to be
Speaker 2: the weirdest baseball season in a decade. Was six weeks left.
Speaker 2: Here are the dozen best records in MLB. Basically the
Speaker 2: Phillies at seventy three and fifty one down to the
Speaker 2: Braves at sixty six and fifty eight. Actually, if you
Speaker 2: take the Astros and Braves out, who are eleven and twelve.
Speaker 2: The top ten teams Phillies to Diamondbacks are all separated
Speaker 2: by four wins. And if you look at run differential
Speaker 2: best run differential, the Yankees at plus one sixteen are
Speaker 2: the most. And if you go down eleven the Twins
Speaker 2: are plus seventy, and that Yankees at plus one sixteen.
Speaker 2: Passing goes on to say, first of all, with the record,
Speaker 2: he says, the best team in MLB is on pace
Speaker 2: for ninety five wins. Last year without a one hundred
Speaker 2: win team was twenty fourteen. That was the third Giants
Speaker 2: World Series mark if you're scoring at home. And then similarly,
Speaker 2: the last time the top run differential in baseball was
Speaker 2: less than two thirty one to the positive plus two
Speaker 2: thirty one. Remember, the Yankees lead with a quarter of
Speaker 2: the season left at plus one sixteen, less than a
Speaker 2: quarter of the season, so basically it's barely half that
Speaker 2: at the moment. All of which he says is a
Speaker 2: year after a ninety win wildcard team faced an eighty
Speaker 2: four win wild guard team in the World Series, the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four Championship looks us up for grabs. This
Speaker 2: has been in a long time. I couldn't agree more.
Speaker 1: Now watch them, Yeah, I know it's interest now watching
Speaker 1: the Yankees.
Speaker 2: And the Dodgers in the World Series.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know. My The highest run projection I have
Speaker 1: based on the simulations is Yankees ninety four point three.
Speaker 1: As I as I've browsers soor check that the Phillies
Speaker 1: ninety four point six, so right there, less than ninety
Speaker 1: five wins. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that.
Speaker 1: I think that the gots the depth of that, and
Speaker 1: the Dodgers are such as it's really perplexing because we
Speaker 1: don't know the health of Glass now. We don't know
Speaker 1: the healthy Yamamoto and I don't know. And this is
Speaker 1: for me, the most challenging part of handicapping as I've
Speaker 1: delved into more future betting and simulations is trying to
Speaker 1: predict that injury and really trying to decipher what's going
Speaker 1: on because you know, they So this is a good example.
Speaker 1: Gil Yamamoda pitches a simulated game yesterday and oh how
Speaker 1: did he look?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: Dave Roberts, Oh he looked great, he looked really good.
Speaker 1: What is he going to say? Oh? God, I don't
Speaker 1: We're really concerned about him. He looks like shit, you know,
Speaker 1: I mean, what are they going to say?
Speaker 2: So?
Speaker 1: I think that's that's tough to figure out these injuries.
Speaker 1: And I know that you can go down the list
Speaker 1: of teams and how it affects them. I think for me,
Speaker 1: the the future of futures. Handicapping, if you will, is
Speaker 1: trying to predict these injuries to the best of our ability,
Speaker 1: and there's gonna be noise no matter how you do it.
Speaker 1: But for me, I'm sorry I went off on a
Speaker 1: tangent there, but I think that's that's super important because
Speaker 1: I think if Glass now and Yamamoto come back, it's
Speaker 1: going to be a hard task to beat those Dodgers, Gill, It's.
Speaker 2: Going to be fascinating how this turns out. And again, already,
Speaker 2: even if it wasn't like this, as I've said many times,
Speaker 2: the incongruence between playing one hundred and sixty two games
Speaker 2: and then having to do a best of three and
Speaker 2: a best of five in baseball is a cruel playoff
Speaker 2: format anyway, So like it's just going to be mayhem.
Speaker 1: I think it's only it is it is. That's a
Speaker 1: really good point as far as the probability of you know,
Speaker 1: if you're sixty percent to win a three game series,
Speaker 1: you know, even if you put it binomially as opposed
Speaker 1: to a seventh game, seven game series, there's a big
Speaker 1: difference from a probability standpoint on that guild. That is
Speaker 1: a really good point, it's.
Speaker 2: It's crazy, and I mean, as I look at the
Speaker 2: standings now, though, do you think that the twelve teams
Speaker 2: that are in We talked about this a little bit
Speaker 2: on air, but I'll talk let's have the same question
Speaker 2: here on the podcast. Do you think that the twelve
Speaker 2: teams that are in playoff position right now are going
Speaker 2: to be the twelve teams that are going to be in?
Speaker 1: Well, I think that the will. So this is how
Speaker 1: I have We'll talk about from a league standpoint, Phillies
Speaker 1: to win that division, make the playoffs. To make the playoffs,
Speaker 1: the Phillies ninety nine point five percent of the time,
Speaker 1: Dodgers are ninety nine percent, Brewers ninety nine percent, and
Speaker 1: then we have the Podres for me are ninety eight percent.
Speaker 1: So those four pretty pretty much. There Braves eighty seven percent,
Speaker 1: So you can say that's five. So it's going to
Speaker 1: be between the Mets, the Diamondbacks and roughly and the Giants,
Speaker 1: maybe with an outside chance, and so maybe you give
Speaker 1: the Giants an eight percent chance and then you split
Speaker 1: the diamond Backs are close to seventy percent and the
Speaker 1: Mets have that the rest of.
Speaker 2: That then the Mets just refuse refuse to take that
Speaker 2: position from the braves.
Speaker 1: It's so bad, you know this this Mets team, and
Speaker 1: I want to give a person like a picture to
Speaker 1: bet again. So this Vincente. Beloso, and I was listening
Speaker 1: to the game and I had a little bit of
Speaker 1: cash on the Mets yesterday they lost, but talking listening
Speaker 1: to how he Rose broadcast the game, describing the picture
Speaker 1: as a beer League pitcher looks like a Beer League
Speaker 1: picture out there, that he's doing it with smoke and mirrors,
Speaker 1: And this is the guy howis been in the game
Speaker 1: a long time, So I trust what he says. I
Speaker 1: am playing against Beloso the next time he comes out.
Speaker 2: Oh I like that. Okay, fade Beloso.
Speaker 1: Of a Beer League picture and smoking mirrors. Okay, I'll
Speaker 1: go against it. And his numbers are his numbers are
Speaker 1: awful too, I mean just sabermetrically, so of course.
Speaker 2: Uh okay, I can't wait for I cannot wait to
Speaker 2: see this. How do you spell his last name? For
Speaker 2: those who are like Beloso, how do you spell it?
Speaker 1: He's a Miami Marlin guy and as b E l
Speaker 1: l O z O volent sounds like aol. Yeah, it
Speaker 1: sounds like an opera.
Speaker 2: Singer, right, Gil, does he wear number eighty three? Is
Speaker 2: that true?
Speaker 1: He does? And then I said that there and that
Speaker 1: was another thing that he said. Now he's number eighty three.
Speaker 1: It's like we're in a spring training game and this
Speaker 1: is like and like, without going off on them, that's batters,
Speaker 1: like how can these guys not hit him? And they
Speaker 1: kept the guys off balanced to be fair, but I
Speaker 1: think that like a good approach with this guy would
Speaker 1: go a long way. Gill, Oh, that's all.
Speaker 2: I'm all right, I like that. All right, let's get there.
Speaker 2: By the way, let's just rattle through some of these
Speaker 2: numbers here the worst money line teams. I'm not even
Speaker 2: gonna mention anyone beyond number one because number two is
Speaker 2: all the way at like you'd be hemorrhage sixteen and
Speaker 2: a half units on the Rangers. But it's not even
Speaker 2: worth talking about anybody after number one. I think in
Speaker 2: the entire history that you and I have been doing
Speaker 2: this show, I don't think there's ever been as big
Speaker 2: a gap between one and everybody else as there is here.
Speaker 2: You know who it is full game we're talking because
Speaker 2: you and I talked about the five full game difference
Speaker 2: last time, and we'll get into that momentarily. But if
Speaker 2: you bet the Chicago White Sox every one of their
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty five games so far this year,
Speaker 2: and of course if you're doing that, you're doing something
Speaker 2: terribly wrong. But if you had, you'd be down forty
Speaker 2: eight and a half units.
Speaker 1: Have we ever known that before? It's worse on this
Speaker 1: this fifty one point five on Killer Sports, But no,
Speaker 1: I don't remember it like we have any And you know,
Speaker 1: this team's bad, but they've they really should have more
Speaker 1: wins than they do. Just even you think about, like
Speaker 1: if you're gonna win, if you're you're at plus two hundred, right,
Speaker 1: that's thirty three percent, you're gonna win thirty three percent
Speaker 1: of their games. And then they haven't done that, so like,
Speaker 1: and that's just from a talent standpoint. I don't know
Speaker 1: what's going on with that White Sox team. I'm happy
Speaker 1: about it. I did have the White Sox. They have
Speaker 1: the worst worst record in baseball, but I'm getting like
Speaker 1: absolutely no suspense. I mean right, so, like, you know,
Speaker 1: it's a fun bet. That's a really fun betkill because
Speaker 1: you can check well, you know, you can root against
Speaker 1: it in this this year's case. You can root against
Speaker 1: the Rockies. You could root against the Marlins. Now it's like, Okay,
Speaker 1: well I won the best, so now I'm happy. I
Speaker 1: check shit. I'll be happy if I win the damn
Speaker 1: bet forty five days before the season end. Skilled that's
Speaker 1: pretty amazing.
Speaker 2: By the way, if we did the home road splits,
Speaker 2: Cleveland edges Colorado as the best money line home team.
Speaker 2: Again Bizarro exercise, you bet them every single game, favorite
Speaker 2: or dog, Cleveland edging the Rockies at Coors as the
Speaker 2: best home team. No surprise, the Diamondbacks seventeen a little
Speaker 2: more than seventeen and a half of their lost units
Speaker 2: were at home more than thirty lost on the road.
Speaker 2: If you're a White Sox backer and the best away team,
Speaker 2: San Diego edging the Yankees closely followed by the Red
Speaker 2: Sox is the best three away money line teams by
Speaker 2: the way run line de facto power power rating. If
Speaker 2: you will your favorite, you win by more than a
Speaker 2: run and a half, you're a dog. You sometimes get
Speaker 2: a win because you're a win in the betting column,
Speaker 2: because you're a dog of a a run and a half.
Speaker 2: So sometimes if you lose and you only lose by
Speaker 2: the one run you get the win in those cases.
Speaker 2: Baltimore by far the best run line team nineteen units
Speaker 2: of the positive, more than doubling up the Royals as
Speaker 2: the number two best run line team.
Speaker 1: You have that, I don't you know, I'm fascinated by
Speaker 1: because we do this every year, Gal, and yet Tom
Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. Home away Rockies at home
Speaker 1: number two, like a way they're like down towards the bottom,
Speaker 1: Like isn't this every year?
Speaker 2: Like it's incredible?
Speaker 1: Can we learn? Can we learn? At age fifty four?
Speaker 1: Gill Right, Yeah, but.
Speaker 2: That's that's the thing about the Rockies though, getting back
Speaker 2: to the money line, home and Roads. We'll get to
Speaker 2: the run lines in a minute, but the Rockies home
Speaker 2: and Road, this is what they've been. The fact that
Speaker 2: they got to the World Series once is pretty mind
Speaker 2: blowing because you're essentially having to roster two completely different
Speaker 2: baseball teams that with Cores as your home field, right
Speaker 2: because and I know guys who have I know at
Speaker 2: least one guy who has played on that team, and
Speaker 2: he will say it, you're playing Cores. It's just so
Speaker 2: hit or friendly. I remember Sergio Roma, I always use
Speaker 2: a Sergio Romo example, his slider simply didn't slide at Cours.
Speaker 2: And of course the dimensions are it's a prairie, right,
Speaker 2: so it's doubles and triples galore. But then those same players, right,
Speaker 2: pitchers and batters alike, then have to go on the road,
Speaker 2: and all of a sudden, the hitters don't have the
Speaker 2: confidence that they've built up artificially in the environment that
Speaker 2: is cores and pitchers. The pitches don't pitch, you know,
Speaker 2: the pitches don't go the same way. So it's your
Speaker 2: like playing two completely different games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, it's really weird because and like for me,
Speaker 1: like these guys are the guys the Olympic distance runners.
Speaker 1: They'll train an altitude and then they'll go down and
Speaker 1: run and see the level so your body feels better.
Speaker 1: But I think that there's difference. You made a good
Speaker 1: point about how the ball moves. Baseball might not necessarily
Speaker 1: be how fit you are, you know, it might be
Speaker 1: how you see the pitch and on how much you
Speaker 1: can what kind of curve or lack of curve, if
Speaker 1: you will, you can put on it. But I just
Speaker 1: thought that that was so interesting because we've been talking
Speaker 1: about this for years, and I will admittedly say that
Speaker 1: I haven't taken advantage of it. I guess as much
Speaker 1: as I should.
Speaker 2: Have, I haven't either. I haven't either. It's one of
Speaker 2: those things that you know again, it's it's predictive. It's
Speaker 2: not only narrative, it's predictive, which is why we do
Speaker 2: these derivative shows. We're not just trying to talk about it.
Speaker 2: We're trying to find things that are predictive. It never fails.
Speaker 2: And yet that's just not the way our brains work
Speaker 2: when it comes to baseball, right, Like we're not thinking
Speaker 2: on a daily base as well. The Rockies are on
Speaker 2: the road. I'm just gonna blanket, you know which, by
Speaker 2: the way, I have been doing with those monthly baseball
Speaker 2: bets up until the Mets this month, by the way,
Speaker 2: because they've been so bad. But those monthly baseball bets,
Speaker 2: like I was brain dead betting the Guardians in March
Speaker 2: April and May it worked out great. A brain dead
Speaker 2: bet the uh the Astros in June they ended up winning. June,
Speaker 2: I brained dead bet the Royals they finished ninth, and
Speaker 2: it finally took a fifth month for that not to work.
Speaker 2: On the Mets, because the Mets have been got awful
Speaker 2: in August.
Speaker 1: But we don't do that.
Speaker 2: With the Rockies. And maybe you're right, maybe we should.
Speaker 2: Maybe I don't.
Speaker 1: Again, I think that we got to be like introspective
Speaker 1: as much as we can. But I will give you
Speaker 1: props for for being I guess introspective about you, I
Speaker 1: guess I don't know how. I don't even know what
Speaker 1: the word is for that. You probably do, but that's
Speaker 1: a good approach you're taking. You're going a month, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you're taking a lot of variants out of the out
Speaker 1: of the thing. And I think that, like, and you're
Speaker 1: good at this, just like looking at it right, you
Speaker 1: can model it. But the schedule is so important. So
Speaker 1: like I remember, like you betting the Astros and they
Speaker 1: played the As one hundred times and they played the
Speaker 1: White Sox one hundred times. I'm kind of exaggerating there,
Speaker 1: but but taking a look at that schedule, I don't
Speaker 1: know if that's factored factored in. And so I commend
Speaker 1: you on your approach. I think that that's that's a
Speaker 1: cool way to play it. And to mend the sports
Speaker 1: books all over the world who put that market out.
Speaker 2: Here yeah, William Hill Caesars is one and Circa was
Speaker 2: the other. DraftKings participated the first month, then they bowed
Speaker 2: out of it. What about the run line? Do you
Speaker 2: have Baltimore that high up over everybody else?
Speaker 1: I don't know because I have it. I don't have
Speaker 1: it up in front of me.
Speaker 2: Oh okay, yeah, I got I got Baltimore. Ninth is
Speaker 2: a per covers, Baltimore nineteen units of the positive. The
Speaker 2: Kansas City Royals at nine point seven units of the
Speaker 2: positive is second place. So Baltimore just crushing on the
Speaker 2: run line if you bet them every time. And the
Speaker 2: worst run line team is not the White Sox, they're
Speaker 2: second worst. Any ideas who the worst run line team
Speaker 2: might be.
Speaker 1: Well, I can tell you who it is at home,
Speaker 1: because that's what I have in front of me. I've
Speaker 1: got the Rays as the worst run line team.
Speaker 2: At home at home. Interesting. Interesting, they're kind of middling
Speaker 2: when it comes to I don't have the home World
Speaker 2: sports on run line, but when it comes to overall
Speaker 2: run line, they're kind of middling. The worst run line
Speaker 2: team in baseball per Covers is by two units worse,
Speaker 2: two units worse than the White Sox. Actually not quite
Speaker 2: two unit's about one point six units worse the Chicago Cubs.
Speaker 1: Oh that's that's crazy. That's interesting. You know what, it's
Speaker 1: crazy where the White Sox are because now I was
Speaker 1: able to pull it up Gil at Killer Sports and
Speaker 1: for me it's Rangers worst run line team, Cubs, Mariners, Marlins,
Speaker 1: raised White Sox, White Socks are above like five teams
Speaker 1: on the run line that minus twenty four units. Rangers
Speaker 1: are down at thirty three point eight units skill on
Speaker 1: Killer Sports.
Speaker 2: So this is interesting. So again, this is the problem
Speaker 2: with these and this has happened over the years. We've
Speaker 2: noticed that I get these very broad ones from covers.
Speaker 2: Now you're doing it from Carl Sachs Killer Sports, and
Speaker 2: we love Carl that they Again, is it question of
Speaker 2: are they calculating it from different books? Is one doing
Speaker 2: a consensus? Is one doing it from one book? Are
Speaker 2: they doing a closing line? Like what is you know what? Exactly?
Speaker 2: How are they tabulating it? And there's gonna be some
Speaker 2: difference the way that covers. As it is, the Cubs
Speaker 2: are the worst, the White Sox are second, the Red
Speaker 2: Sox third worst, the Marlins fourth worst, the Mariners and
Speaker 2: then the Rangers.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting now, but I do have the Orioles
Speaker 1: as the best team, so there's no there's no no doubt,
Speaker 1: no doubt.
Speaker 2: Derek gil Best pictures. Now, this is a bizarro exercise. Again,
Speaker 2: if you just backed this picture every time he started,
Speaker 2: who would be the number one pitcher in baseball? Just
Speaker 2: randomly in terms of money won? This is this is
Speaker 2: so random to me any idea.
Speaker 1: I don't know how that count. I've got Trevor.
Speaker 2: Wrever Williams is number one because because the Nationals are
Speaker 2: nine and two result, ultimately all the eleven times he started, Now, yeah.
Speaker 1: That's really surprising. That's the surprise of the day.
Speaker 2: You now the number two again and he's only he's
Speaker 2: only started eleven times, so he kind of gets away
Speaker 2: with the small samples eyes, but he still has the
Speaker 2: most money. Number two with twenty four starts and the
Speaker 2: Guardians have gone eighteen and six with him. On the
Speaker 2: hill is our guy tanner byby number two?
Speaker 1: Bibby Bobby Byby Oh yeah wow, yeah, look at that. Yep, yep.
Speaker 2: So those are those are one two, by the way,
Speaker 2: dead last. If you're wondering, like, who's the pitcher that
Speaker 2: if I backed him every time he stepped to the hill,
Speaker 2: is actually the biggest money hemorrhager. It's our boy flexing,
Speaker 2: do you okay?
Speaker 1: So you have you have flex in it? So, yeah,
Speaker 1: he's not flexing his muscles.
Speaker 2: I got flexing by margin. He has stopped. He has
Speaker 2: started twenty four games. The white socks are two and
Speaker 2: twenty two.
Speaker 1: He was amazing. I mean, you cann't even make that stuff.
Speaker 1: And then you can't they throw him out there, They
Speaker 1: throw him out there again. Two yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you would be down almost eighteen units just betting
Speaker 2: that one individual human being.
Speaker 1: So and you know the good thing about when you
Speaker 1: when you do a show and you bet against flex
Speaker 1: and is you can always say, well, Flexen has not
Speaker 1: been flexing his muscle.
Speaker 2: Oh no, the tortured everybody. When don't you started your
Speaker 2: dad Jokes podcast? When does that start?
Speaker 1: It's every day at at eight am bet Us show.
Speaker 1: You get handicapped picks and bad jokes.
Speaker 2: Yep, all right, bet you? Oh yeah, we should start
Speaker 2: with that. So the bet Us Show, when when is
Speaker 2: it released?
Speaker 1: Every day eight am Monday through Friday, and I take
Speaker 1: Wednesday off.
Speaker 2: Okay, by the way, on your numbers game appearances. Please
Speaker 2: remind me next time I have to start with that.
Speaker 2: I'm not doing it to be absolutely Who are you
Speaker 2: doing it with this year? Who are you doing it
Speaker 2: with this year?
Speaker 1: Okay? So Kyle is the host. He's the host second
Speaker 1: year in a Kyle purveyance and he's a funny guy,
Speaker 1: really good host, keeps it moving. Corby Craig is the
Speaker 1: he's he's back for a second year. And then we
Speaker 1: have a guy Kenny and his last name like is
Speaker 1: eluding me right now, Gil, I don't Kenny McAndrews because
Speaker 1: they call him moonshot McAndrews and he does a lot
Speaker 1: of props. It's really a cool show, Gil, because we
Speaker 1: we all handicapped differently, and I enjoy that because I
Speaker 1: like to get other guys perspectives on handicapping and sometimes
Speaker 1: and I like to disagree sometimes with people. Uh not
Speaker 1: not just to be you know, an a hole, but
Speaker 1: I'd like to see how other people me to approach
Speaker 1: the sport because there's different ways to do it.
Speaker 2: Again, well that's why I mean again, this is why
Speaker 2: you you and I connected so many years ago as
Speaker 2: we're fascinated by this ship, right like the whole process
Speaker 2: of it.
Speaker 1: It is amazing. I can spend all day, I can
Speaker 1: spend all day looking at numbers, and I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe there's there's a problem, but I don't think so.
Speaker 1: You know, you know what Gil I used to there
Speaker 1: used to be a game where he had a spinner
Speaker 1: and and you spa and like Babe Ruth had a
Speaker 1: big run number. I can't remember the name of that game,
Speaker 1: but I would sit there and play that for you know,
Speaker 1: when I was ten eleven years old, for three four
Speaker 1: hours a day. So I think it's just ingrained in
Speaker 1: the brain.
Speaker 2: Can you collect baseball cards as a kid?
Speaker 1: I did, and I have a huge box of them
Speaker 1: somewhere at my parents' house. They could be worth something,
Speaker 1: so I went to really endeavor to take it. Yeah.
Speaker 2: I went to DC recently and my mom says to me,
Speaker 2: She goes, you know, the baseball cards are still here.
Speaker 2: Maybe you should take it home with you. I'm like, whoa,
Speaker 2: let me dive into this. The notebooks with the plastic
Speaker 2: sheets are so great. Yeah, all these great cards. I
Speaker 2: thought I was going to get rich off my thirteen
Speaker 2: Rookie Berry Bonds cards, you know, but there's you know,
Speaker 2: all the way back into the eighties and the seventies.
Speaker 2: I have like every you know, George brad all these
Speaker 2: you know, Ricky Henderson, all these points, right, But then
Speaker 2: there's the Then there's the players that like as a kid,
Speaker 2: I thought might be great, and so I put them
Speaker 2: in the plastic sheets too. So there's like Tony Pania
Speaker 2: and Johnny Ray all these players. Were like, why nowther
Speaker 2: of these guys get in this pass? But it's I
Speaker 2: was that was a whole childhood. Man. I was so
Speaker 2: into those baseball cards. And I was telling Jason Wininguard,
Speaker 2: I have a bunch of and I have no idea
Speaker 2: where I got these. I have a bunch of t
Speaker 2: o five, to six and to seven baseball cards, none
Speaker 2: of them any good and all of them in shit condition.
Speaker 2: But I wonder if, like if I sold them, how
Speaker 2: much I could get for anyway?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know. You think that that Barry Bond's
Speaker 1: rookie card would be worse something?
Speaker 2: You think that was when that was when they just
Speaker 2: saturated the market, you know, the rookie even the rookie.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's different, right, It's different. It's different manufacturers. And
Speaker 1: I think in the eighties there were there were tops Flear,
Speaker 1: Don Ross and and I have the one like full
Speaker 1: sets of the one that's not worth anything so that
Speaker 1: you know whatever, It was just a roll of the
Speaker 1: dice and I rolled the dice wrong that when I
Speaker 1: was ten years old.
Speaker 2: Don Russen, Flear, Don Russ, and Fleir started in the
Speaker 2: early eighties, and then I want to say, yeah, they
Speaker 2: started in the early eighties and they kept going. But
Speaker 2: then remember like Griffy upper Deck in ninety one I
Speaker 2: believe it was or eighty nine, I can't remember, but
Speaker 2: the Rookie Card was the first of the set. Everybody
Speaker 2: thought they were gonna rich off those, and then upper
Speaker 2: Deck mass produced them and they screwed everybody. By the way,
Speaker 2: there's a great Netflix doc called Jack of All Trades
Speaker 2: I believe it's called. It's about the family that owned
Speaker 2: the biggest baseball card shop in Canada, and it gives
Speaker 2: a great window into how they just absolutely jacked the
Speaker 2: whole baseball card market. It's a great great.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna watch out goody. So my wife's
Speaker 1: always asking me, I always find the shows on Netflix,
Speaker 1: so that I like that I've got a show.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there you got some obscure one jack of all trades.
Speaker 2: I believe it's called umpires. And the nice thing about
Speaker 2: having Mark Portrait here for umpires is he's got historical data.
Speaker 2: Let's just talk about twenty twenty four, and this is
Speaker 2: again primarily for totals betters, who have been the most
Speaker 2: reliable over and under umpires. Andy, let's talk about the overs.
Speaker 2: Andy Fletcher and Bruce Dreckman. Nine of ten games that
Speaker 2: they've called balls and strikes have gone to the over.
Speaker 2: H They're the biggest over umps in baseball thus far
Speaker 2: this year. Larry Vanover eight of ten to the over
Speaker 2: and Lance Barksdale seven of nine to the over. How
Speaker 2: about that? All right? Oh by the way, Sean Barber
Speaker 2: six of seven to the.
Speaker 1: Over you just mentioned. Did you just mention Lance Barksdale
Speaker 1: isn't an over empire?
Speaker 2: Yes? I did, well.
Speaker 1: Lance Barksdale is the number two from the This is
Speaker 1: a from eighty one game. He's got eighty one games.
Speaker 1: I guess this is over maybe the last two years
Speaker 1: or so. Uh. And he's number two from a from
Speaker 1: an expected e er a stamp point at one point
Speaker 1: one one, which is eleven percent greater than an average umpire,
Speaker 1: So like, you know, put ten percent into the into
Speaker 1: your projection for this guy. But that's good that that
Speaker 1: that that coincides with with actual that is what's happened
Speaker 1: this year.
Speaker 2: And that's why we do this. So so Lance Barksdale,
Speaker 2: forget about the small sample size of this year. He
Speaker 2: corroborates he is, he is the same guy. He exactly
Speaker 2: who we think he is, right as Dennis what it
Speaker 2: was Denny Green's line, They are who we thought they are.
Speaker 2: Lance Barksdale basically then has a very small strike zone
Speaker 2: is what we're saying. That's probably the nature of it.
Speaker 2: He has a small It's so true with.
Speaker 1: Some of these guys, and the slaton is so aggravating
Speaker 1: because I mean, it makes a huge difference. One call
Speaker 1: can make a huge difference with these guys the talent
Speaker 1: level where they're at gilt.
Speaker 2: So these are the now, these are the most under
Speaker 2: reliable under umpires for this season. David Arietta is four
Speaker 2: of four. That's a small sample size, but four of
Speaker 2: four in terms of going to the under let's see here.
Speaker 2: I don't know, these numbers are a little wacky that
Speaker 2: I have Tom Hanahan and John Lipke both eight of
Speaker 2: ten to the under, John Bacon and DJ Rayburn nine
Speaker 2: of eleven to the under, Rob Drake ten of thirteen
Speaker 2: to the under, Brennan Miller, ten of thirteen.
Speaker 1: To the other.
Speaker 2: Now Fonzo Markz eleven of fourteen to the under.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't have any of those guys in there.
Speaker 1: On The two guys that I will say that I will,
Speaker 1: I will look at playing an under when they're when
Speaker 1: they're umpires are Bill Miller and Doug Eddings, and they're
Speaker 1: number one two from from an under understandpoint. Those are
Speaker 1: the two guys where and it. You know, normally these guys,
Speaker 1: they you know, they don't trend like one way or
Speaker 1: the other. But that damn Bill Miller. I mean he's
Speaker 1: given guys calls everywhere, and Eddings is the same way.
Speaker 1: So those two guys, like I will not let's just
Speaker 1: say this, gil, I will not playing over when these
Speaker 1: guys are the empire.
Speaker 2: So we'll do it. That's great to know. Doug Eddings
Speaker 2: this year seven of eleven to the under, so he's
Speaker 2: still being Doug Eddings. Let me see, Bill Miller, that's
Speaker 2: your hold music. Here's our boy, Brian, there's our boy,
Speaker 2: Brian Knight five of seven to the under. We always
Speaker 2: bring him up. Bill Miller. Where is Bill Miller this year? Eddings?
Speaker 2: Eddings absolutely matches and then Miller there.
Speaker 1: Ahead on the over. So that just goes to show
Speaker 1: you that, you know, sometimes yeah, it's not about the umpire,
Speaker 1: that's right.
Speaker 2: That's why I can't find him. I'm still scrolling for
Speaker 2: Bill Miller. Yeah, oh there is. Oh I have him
Speaker 2: as six and six. So Bill Miller six and six
Speaker 2: on the over and the unders according to the records
Speaker 2: here at covers. So okay, but historically he's under. But
Speaker 2: that what does that say about Bill Miller and Doug
Speaker 2: Ednings and the guys listening to their strike zone is
Speaker 2: like is like you know, a prairie. They give calls
Speaker 2: to the pitcher all the time.
Speaker 1: So, by the way, go ahead.
Speaker 2: Could you ever go back and watch like Greg Maddox
Speaker 2: and Tom Glavin highlights and all the pitches they got
Speaker 2: off the strike zone?
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, no, no, no, those guys used to and it
Speaker 1: was all about what it's better than it used to be.
Speaker 1: So that's a good point because those guys used to,
Speaker 1: like they throw it close at it'd be a strike
Speaker 1: and guy that must have been been annoying from a
Speaker 1: from a hitting standpoint.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I don't want to disparage their legacies,
Speaker 2: but good god, I mean, come on. Of course, the
Speaker 2: Levon Hernandez Marlin's World Series game is the greatest example
Speaker 2: of that, and the announcers didn't even say anything like
Speaker 2: Costas barely even reacted like Hernandez would get a strike
Speaker 2: a foot off the plate and Costas is like strike three.
Speaker 1: I'm like, what you know, it's interesting that you're you're
Speaker 1: going back and YouTube's doing a good job of this.
Speaker 1: You can see various games in the past, and I
Speaker 1: I enjoyed doing it. I wish I had a little
Speaker 1: bit more time to watch them. But uh, the All
Speaker 1: Star games I've been watching, I've watched a couple of those,
Speaker 1: and it's it's good. It's just it hearkens you back
Speaker 1: to a different, different age where it's not guys, and
Speaker 1: it's great to have all this data. It's great. From
Speaker 1: a handicapping samen, Don't get me wrong. I've spent my
Speaker 1: whole adult life and really the last five years being
Speaker 1: able to program, so I could I can manipulate it.
Speaker 1: I think it really helps out. But there's something about
Speaker 1: just watching a game without just enjoying the noise of
Speaker 1: the crowd and they and a really good call of
Speaker 1: the game by Invinscali that does a lot on the
Speaker 1: on uh on YouTube and listened to him and even Garagiolo,
Speaker 1: who I never really liked, but it just he's got
Speaker 1: such a charm about him. Yeah, and so so that was,
Speaker 1: uh that's interested.
Speaker 2: To watch it, I you know. Dion Sanders famously said
Speaker 2: when he played both sports, he famously said, the best
Speaker 2: sign he ever saw was someone who said there was
Speaker 2: a tribute to the old anti drug commercial where they
Speaker 2: had a picture of a football and it said Dion's
Speaker 2: brain on crack. And then it had a picture of
Speaker 2: a baseball, said Dion's brain, and it's Deon's brain. Then
Speaker 2: Deon's brain on crack. So it was the baseball first,
Speaker 2: Deon's brain, that football Deon's bren crack. Which is a
Speaker 2: great way of sort of compartmentalizing how our brains take
Speaker 2: in both of those sports too, right, Like, my first
Speaker 2: love in life was football. It's the first thing I
Speaker 2: can remember. I can't explain to you why I loved it.
Speaker 2: My parents were immigrants. They didn't know anything about football,
Speaker 2: but the very first time I saw one Washington Redskins play,
Speaker 2: I couldn't think of anything else for the rest of
Speaker 2: my life. Right like my child, I was just like
Speaker 2: I was mesmerized by it. I fell in love with
Speaker 2: football in a way that I cannot describe. It's only
Speaker 2: how the human brain that was inside of my head functioned.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: I was like, this is the greatest thing I've ever seen.
Speaker 2: I'm obsessed with this. I must soak in all knowledge
Speaker 2: of it. Baseball inhabits a completely different part of the
Speaker 2: brain where And this is why I always say October's
Speaker 2: my favorite month. I love the crack of football on
Speaker 2: the weekends, and then the brain and then the brain
Speaker 2: part during the week of the baseball postseason, because baseball
Speaker 2: still to me, appeals to the handicapping and the numbers
Speaker 2: and the baseball card collecting and the nerdiest of ways.
Speaker 2: And I'll just I love it in almost as much,
Speaker 2: but in a completely entirely different way. Anyway, Anyway, keep
Speaker 2: those umpires in mind. What is the place that you
Speaker 2: go to? Now? Again, we say this every time, but
Speaker 2: let's remind folks where can they get umpire assignments.
Speaker 1: Well, the what's called umpire crew used to used to
Speaker 1: tweet it out, but but honestly, you can do it yourself.
Speaker 1: And it's just all you gotta do is go the
Speaker 1: first base guy for the for the night before goes
Speaker 1: to home plate, the second base guy goes to first base,
Speaker 1: and so it's really the first base umpire from the
Speaker 1: night before. And I don't go to answer your question,
Speaker 1: I don't go anywhere except my I'm my own source guilt, right,
Speaker 1: But I'm able to pull it in. I'm able to
Speaker 1: pull it in and put it into the model like automatically.
Speaker 2: But how do you know mark who's on first base
Speaker 2: and to know that they're going to be at home
Speaker 2: plate the next night? How do you know the names
Speaker 2: of the cruise?
Speaker 1: I pull it? Oh the cruise? Well you can just
Speaker 1: pull it. So, so how it's done from a technical standpoint,
Speaker 1: Every morning I run it. Who was the first base umpire? Uh?
Speaker 1: Last night? For each for what? When is game? It's
Speaker 1: a series? Game two, three, or four?
Speaker 2: Where are you where you're getting the name MLB dot
Speaker 2: com mlbat's yeah, it's it's it's in the box. Wore okay, Okay,
Speaker 2: So then you can just do it. You just do
Speaker 2: the rotation at that point. Gotcha, So you see a
Speaker 2: fresh face.
Speaker 1: I think that's as we're talking about it as a
Speaker 1: pro I'm writing it down as a project for next year.
Speaker 1: I'll go ahead and do it at base winter dot com.
Speaker 1: And so I mean that's that's I'm doing it anyway.
Speaker 1: It might as well just publish it, that's all. So
Speaker 1: uh yep, okay, cool. Let's go to first five innings. Now,
Speaker 1: this is where it gets a little more proprietary. This
Speaker 1: used to be available. Joe. They used to do this.
Speaker 1: I used to do it manually for many years, first
Speaker 1: five betting wins, losses, pushes.
Speaker 2: Then I wanted to where did Joe Ostrowski work? Where
Speaker 2: did he work? Some They used to at odd Shark.
Speaker 2: They used to do it at odd Shark for at
Speaker 2: least one year, maybe two. And I used to just
Speaker 2: use theirs because it allowed me not to have to
Speaker 2: do it. I don't know that they do it anymore.
Speaker 2: Oh maybe they do. They actually do still do it.
Speaker 2: I didn't know that they were doing it. But it's
Speaker 2: not Joe anymore. It's a guy named Ethan. I didn't
Speaker 2: see that they were doing it, so they actually do
Speaker 2: tabulate it. I'll actually compare now to what they have
Speaker 2: to because I get them now at a completely different spot.
Speaker 2: And again they don't really match. They don't really match.
Speaker 2: Who do you have?
Speaker 1: Is that we just go with? I think we just
Speaker 1: you know, I have this data somewhere and.
Speaker 2: Oh no, because it's a different date. These are the
Speaker 2: odd shark. One is thirteen days behind. So okay, I'll
Speaker 2: do with the one that's up to date, up to
Speaker 2: the minute. Do you do this at all? Mark?
Speaker 1: You know I have it somewhere in my code, but
Speaker 1: I don't have it in front of me.
Speaker 2: So okay, I've got Baltimore number one. This is just
Speaker 2: betting teams first five, Baltimore number one. If you bet
Speaker 2: them every day on the first five line, favorite dog,
Speaker 2: all of them. They're sixty eight, forty four and thirteen.
Speaker 2: Remember there's pushes, so you'd be up eight point six
Speaker 2: to seven units betting them. Boston is second, you'd be
Speaker 2: up eight point three seven units, So eight point six
Speaker 2: seven to eight point three seven, Arizona's third, Phillies fourth,
Speaker 2: Milwaukee's five, and now we get under two units at
Speaker 2: so only the top five teams make you more than
Speaker 2: two units on the entire season and first five betting.
Speaker 2: Think about that. Cincinnati, who's in six, would only have
Speaker 2: you up one point seven five units on the first
Speaker 2: five line. If you bet them every single game this year,
Speaker 2: you'd be fifty five to fifty one and eighteen. Kansas
Speaker 2: City seventh, wait for it, Cleveland is eighth, you'd be
Speaker 2: up a unit point six and ninth most profitable up
Speaker 2: up zero point eight four units, a tick above zero.
Speaker 2: The Chicago White Sox everybody ninth place, forty six sixty
Speaker 2: one and at up zero point eight four units.
Speaker 1: By the way, one sixteen more games than they have
Speaker 1: on the overall on the first five, then.
Speaker 2: Sixteen, so that's our number. That was the answer to
Speaker 2: my question. So how many times have they been a
Speaker 2: head after five and still lost? And the answer is sixteen? No,
Speaker 2: you know I did that because I have twenty two
Speaker 2: out of one, twenty five. That's that's what I have.
Speaker 2: Twenty two times. You sent this to me, So it's
Speaker 2: twenty two times. Twenty two times this White Sox team
Speaker 2: has been a head after five and lost the full game.
Speaker 2: And you you sent this to me because you ran
Speaker 2: you ran a query, no I did.
Speaker 1: I just did it this morning. So it's twenty two
Speaker 1: times twenty two times zero ahead and they end up
Speaker 1: losing the game. Out of one hundred and twenty five games,
Speaker 1: so that's seventeen point six percent of the time should
Speaker 1: be like a true odds of like plus four sixty eight,
Speaker 1: and you're usually getting about plus seven twenty five plus
Speaker 1: seven fifty with that particular So it's something that and
Speaker 1: it really it's been it's been lousy the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks, but before that it was really good. Now
Speaker 1: now even even so at seventeen point six percent plus
Speaker 1: four sixty eight, you can get plus seven to twenty
Speaker 1: five on a plus four sixty eight. Yil, I take
Speaker 1: it every day, right.
Speaker 2: It's fantastic, It's such I mean again, this is this
Speaker 2: is maybe in all the derivative shows we've done this year,
Speaker 2: this has been maybe the most amazing thing. And it's
Speaker 2: not that we don't know that the White Sox think
Speaker 2: we get it. Everybody does. But the fact that you'd
Speaker 2: be profitable, however small, you'd be profitable betting the first
Speaker 2: five you'll obviously be hemorrhaging, what do we say, over
Speaker 2: forty eight units? You said over fifty one units if
Speaker 2: you bet them full game. That's the biggest split we've
Speaker 2: ever had on this show, clearly for any team ever.
Speaker 2: It's just incredible. It's a fifty two unit change between
Speaker 2: the end of the fifth and the end of the game.
Speaker 2: That just is remarkable. And what does that say That
Speaker 2: says their starting pitching is, you know, pretty okay, and
Speaker 2: their bullpen is the worst thing on God's Green Earth
Speaker 2: is basically much of that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And what it says to me, Gil, and we've
Speaker 1: been talking about this for the last two years. It's
Speaker 1: hard to put together, but I think as a handicaper,
Speaker 1: I think as a guy who you know, I would
Speaker 1: think people would listen maybe sometimes to what I say,
Speaker 1: maybe all the time, but sure of what I say.
Speaker 1: I think that the ideal way to handicap baseball is
Speaker 1: to handicap the first five and then to handicap the
Speaker 1: last four. And I think that that's something that of
Speaker 1: course I'm in the process of being able to do that,
Speaker 1: but I need to kind of step that up because
Speaker 1: that's that's pretty pretty darn amazing. But like, not only that,
Speaker 1: if you had if you were equipped with the first
Speaker 1: five model and a back end model if you will,
Speaker 1: you'd be able to use that with live betting too.
Speaker 1: But that's really interesting that we're talking about that because
Speaker 1: it's kind of confirming what what we've talked about for
Speaker 1: for a long time. Goal.
Speaker 2: So there's a few things there. One, you know, we
Speaker 2: talked about this double result thing. How many places offer
Speaker 2: the pre flop double result of White Sox ahead, White
Speaker 2: Sox lose first five full game.
Speaker 1: Well, if you can have an outlet that has props builder,
Speaker 1: that's worldwide. I've seen it. Yeah, they're here nationally. It's
Speaker 1: an available market you can get at most places. I
Speaker 1: would say that you can. If you had three sports books,
Speaker 1: at least two will have them guilt ok o.
Speaker 2: And then of course there's the live betting opportunities which
Speaker 2: you just mentioned, which is the other way to do
Speaker 2: that is if you don't have that available to you,
Speaker 2: is you know they're winning and then you bet the
Speaker 2: other team. A lot of people have just been doing
Speaker 2: that a lot this year. The other thing you bring
Speaker 2: up is more fascinating to me beyond the white souce,
Speaker 2: which is you got a handicap the first five, then
Speaker 2: you got to handicap the rest of the game. And
Speaker 2: you do a great job with bullpens, you know, because
Speaker 2: you really break it down not just by closer, you
Speaker 2: do the underbelly of the bullpen too, which I think
Speaker 2: is I think that, more than anything, is the key
Speaker 2: to baseball betting. It is also the reason I got
Speaker 2: out of daily baseball betting. Right. So for those who
Speaker 2: have been with us long enough, they remember a time where,
Speaker 2: through the year twenty sixteen, Previson, I was a baseball better.
Speaker 2: First all, I was, like you Mark, every day, my
Speaker 2: obsession was just betting baseball, and it immersed I mean,
Speaker 2: you know how it is. It takes over your life.
Speaker 2: That's all you think about all the time. You know
Speaker 2: every number, about everything when it comes to Major League
Speaker 2: Baseball starters. But when the game started to change and
Speaker 2: starters started to come out earlier, or for God's sakes
Speaker 2: again openers existed for some teams, then I no longer
Speaker 2: and especially then Vson happened, I no longer had the
Speaker 2: time to properly bet baseball because also you had to
Speaker 2: start to release them the night before to really get
Speaker 2: the best of the number, because the markets were moving
Speaker 2: quicker too. So as a confluence of all those events,
Speaker 2: I just couldn't do it more. And your ability that
Speaker 2: you have the time to actually go in and assess
Speaker 2: those bullpens. That's why I think people should listen to
Speaker 2: your show every day at bet us, and they should
Speaker 2: listen to more than half of what you say, Mark,
Speaker 2: because you actually have a wisdom that a mere mortal
Speaker 2: cannot possibly have if they have other things to do.
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate that, you know, it's it's about definitely
Speaker 1: a bandwidth issue, and that's one of the reasons. And
Speaker 1: it took me a while. You know, I started learning
Speaker 1: Python about six years ago, so forty eight years old,
Speaker 1: and the brain doesn't have as much plasticity as it
Speaker 1: does when you're forty eight years old. But it's taking
Speaker 1: me six years and I feel right now comfortable being
Speaker 1: able to pull this data and run money Carlo simulations,
Speaker 1: be able to okay, well, let's see half first five,
Speaker 1: last four, been being able to do that. So for me,
Speaker 1: it's exciting, it's and and so if you do listen
Speaker 1: to half of what I say, I think I think
Speaker 1: you're going to be doing pretty good.
Speaker 2: Gil, I think. So, what's our takeaway from the first
Speaker 2: five Beyond the White Sox do we feel like, well.
Speaker 1: One thing that you did that you that you mentioned
Speaker 1: and and I think it's easier to handicap first five
Speaker 1: because you don't have to use the bullpits. Right. Thing
Speaker 1: that you mentioned is is you had to go. I
Speaker 1: think there's only maybe what eight teams that were were
Speaker 1: positive on the on uh yes, setting.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about that for a second.
Speaker 1: So you have a bigger spread, You're you're for the
Speaker 1: most strata dealing with Yeah, exactly, yeah, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2: Twenty cents as opposed to ten. Let's say that. But
Speaker 2: that's that should be. And again, no one bets first
Speaker 2: fives this way, but that should tell you something, right
Speaker 2: that there are only one, two, three, four, five? Was
Speaker 2: it one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven.
Speaker 2: I guess there's eleven profitable, but six of those are
Speaker 2: less than two units for the whole season, right, So
Speaker 2: it's really only and the fifth is only like two
Speaker 2: and a half units. So it's really like, it's just
Speaker 2: not that profitable of a thing to do. It's not
Speaker 2: as profitable as we think it is.
Speaker 1: It's harder to beat.
Speaker 2: It's harder to beat because of the stratle you've.
Speaker 1: You've got to really pick your spots. And and for me,
Speaker 1: from a proper ability standpoint, without getting into it, it's
Speaker 1: easier to predict. You would think that the sports books
Speaker 1: would be a little bit more competitive with it ted,
Speaker 1: and maybe we'll see that in the next few years.
Speaker 1: Ago I don't know.
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, let's get to the let's get to
Speaker 2: the first five. Excuse me, not the first five, the
Speaker 2: first inning. These are super duper proprietary. You won't find
Speaker 2: this anywhere else. A lot of people like to bet
Speaker 2: first innings. Me and Jason Winingarten used to make a
Speaker 2: cottage industry of it. We would bet yes no runs
Speaker 2: and in those days we did it betting betting yes
Speaker 2: runs against aces was the most profitable thing ever in
Speaker 2: the prices were such. Now there's a whole cottage industry
Speaker 2: of people betting the nose, which has been profitable for them.
Speaker 2: So it's just a different it's a different environment these days.
Speaker 2: But if we look at pictures that have performed the worst,
Speaker 2: let's start there. First innings this year minimum fifty five
Speaker 2: played appearances against who do you have? Who do you have?
Speaker 2: Because you do this as well, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can, I can definitely do it. The one
Speaker 1: thing that I need to do is I need to
Speaker 1: put my fifty five innings pitch, because that's that's where
Speaker 1: we're different sometimes, right I did.
Speaker 2: I just randomly set fifty five plate appearances again, but.
Speaker 1: This, this is kind of a cool guy. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: we got we got fifty five plate appearances and you
Speaker 1: use on base percentage? Is that I do?
Speaker 2: For whatever reason, I decided, I always land on on
Speaker 2: base percentage, just the way I do it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I'm looking at talk about the padres Joe
Speaker 1: Musgrove for sixty seven on base percentage? First first inning?
Speaker 2: How many plate appearances against? Because I don't have Musgrove
Speaker 2: show up.
Speaker 1: He's got sixty plates.
Speaker 2: Okay, So why don't I have musk Grove? Oh I
Speaker 2: don't have musk Grove. You know who I have? I
Speaker 2: have Keaton Win as the worst.
Speaker 1: He is up there, Gil four thirty three, he's number
Speaker 1: four thirty.
Speaker 2: Oh So for some reason, I don't have musk Grove,
Speaker 2: but I have Keaton Win four thirty three. Then I
Speaker 2: have Logan Allen for twenty five, and then I have
Speaker 2: Hunter Brown, Chris Bassett.
Speaker 1: They are all up there. Gombers up there.
Speaker 2: Too, or fifth for me?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Okay, uh yeah, so that's why not mus Grove? Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't know, Gil, I don't know.
Speaker 2: Let me reduce it to fifty. Let me see what
Speaker 2: happens if I do fifty, does musk Grove show up
Speaker 2: at fifty? Hold on, let's see what happens? No, what
Speaker 2: do I have a musk Grove problem in this? I
Speaker 2: got ty block? That is the worst from who.
Speaker 1: Is your source that you used? You are you? Are
Speaker 1: you your own source?
Speaker 2: I am my own source. So do I have a
Speaker 2: musk Grove problem? Is the question? What did I What
Speaker 2: do I have?
Speaker 1: Is?
Speaker 2: What's the glitch with musk Grove? Anyway? I trust you
Speaker 2: with musk Grove. But this is the first time I
Speaker 2: have just had a complete omission on something that's interesting.
Speaker 2: Where is okay? I see? So if I reduce it
Speaker 2: to forty five, then Musgrove starts showing up. But when
Speaker 2: I increase it to fifty against anyway, this is not
Speaker 2: exciting for people to listen to. Anyway you have Musgrove
Speaker 2: was number one, But we have all the other same
Speaker 2: names that are up there, which is again Keaton, Win, Logan,
Speaker 2: Allen Hunter, Brown, Chris Bassett, Austin Gomber, who else you
Speaker 2: got up there?
Speaker 1: Gomber, Brown, Logan, Allen Casey, Mize he's six. And Griffin Henning,
Speaker 1: a guy who I like to bet against with the
Speaker 1: bad he's seven.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we got all the same names except Muskrove.
Speaker 1: I don't know what.
Speaker 2: Happened to my musk Grove, but it's bothering you because
Speaker 2: we have the exact same putout output otherwise. Right when
Speaker 2: Alan Brown, Basset, Gomber, Miz Canning, I know what happened, and.
Speaker 1: Less Musgroves on the on the injured list and they're
Speaker 1: not they're not populating that because he's injured. That's the
Speaker 1: only thing I can think.
Speaker 2: Of, all right, best first inning, one forty three on
Speaker 2: base against first inning Tyler Glass. Now Tyler Glass, that's
Speaker 2: I have.
Speaker 1: That's funny. That's how we're missing one guy. That's so funny,
Speaker 1: uh In glassdow Gosh? That so how difference, yes, how
Speaker 1: big of a difference does that make to the all
Speaker 1: the playoff calculations? Is this guy gonna come back?
Speaker 2: And yeah, Todder Glass now one forty three on base
Speaker 2: against the next best is Renaldo Lopez of the Braves
Speaker 2: at one ninety four, and then Dean Kramer of the
Speaker 2: O's on the leaflet two hundred against interesting.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is exactly what I have.
Speaker 2: And then by the way, Scooball followed by Zach Wheeler
Speaker 2: and showed him Managa and then Crochet. So some of
Speaker 2: the people you would expect to be up on that list.
Speaker 1: You're size except for Musgrove.
Speaker 2: I don't know Musgrove. What do I have against Musgrove?
Speaker 2: He's not in this thing. That's really weird. That's the
Speaker 2: first time that's ever happened. Where do I have Muskgrove?
Speaker 2: He doesn't even exist, So I must have a plate
Speaker 2: appearances against glitch with him.
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't know, that's weird. I mean maybe maybe
Speaker 1: there's something universal about that.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: We'll see Joe Muscrow will be the World Series MVP,
Speaker 1: and so like, I don't maybe there's something there.
Speaker 2: Do do I have a basis on balls thing with him?
Speaker 2: That makes like I don't know because I have played
Speaker 2: appearances he shows up at forty five, but he doesn't
Speaker 2: show up at fifty five anyway, anything there in the
Speaker 2: first inning stuff, So so the biggest thing of the picture.
Speaker 2: I like your comment earlier in terms of like a fade,
Speaker 2: in terms of a picture, is our old guy number
Speaker 2: eighty three for the Miami Marlins. That's that's a pretty
Speaker 2: that's a pretty awesome thing. Beloso, your guy.
Speaker 1: Uh, it's something. This guy's amazing. I mean, he's doing
Speaker 1: it and so like that's one of the things if
Speaker 1: you ever listened to radio, I love listening to the
Speaker 1: radio broadcasts more than the TV because you get really
Speaker 1: good insight on that. And I've just never heard he's
Speaker 1: calling guy a Beer League pitcher using smoking mirrors, and
Speaker 1: so I can hardly wait till the guy starts.
Speaker 2: Now, was that the home? Was that the home announcer saying.
Speaker 1: That that's how he rose? Yep, exactly. He's been Howie
Speaker 1: Rose has been in a game gosh a long time,
Speaker 1: maybe since the early eight I don't know when he started,
Speaker 1: but he's been at least thirty years. Gill really good.
Speaker 1: The The BET's one of my favorite radio broadcast.
Speaker 2: Gill Well Baoso has pitched thirty three innings this year
Speaker 2: for the Marlins. Beoso thirty three innings two point four
Speaker 2: to five ERA, but his expected ERA is three point
Speaker 2: ninety nine and his EXPIP is four point eight two.
Speaker 2: Why because his home run to fly ball rate is
Speaker 2: five point six percent, so that's super low. His strand
Speaker 2: rate is eighty four point nine percent, which would be
Speaker 2: historical if you spread it out over tons of innings,
Speaker 2: and then his bab babit is fortunate, but it's not
Speaker 2: that fortune. It's two fifty eight. So okay, beoso, that's
Speaker 2: a fade for the next time.
Speaker 1: It's not a whole like I've seen. I've seen guys
Speaker 1: with like after six starts have like a three e
Speaker 1: r A and like a seven. Yeah, you know, basement
Speaker 1: or ear So it's not like.
Speaker 2: Huge, but like terror.
Speaker 1: I think if you look at like the stuff plus
Speaker 1: and then you just look at the guy pitch. I mean,
Speaker 1: I totally agree with what what how he rose said,
Speaker 1: he's to the eye, he's just awful. So anyway, maybe
Speaker 1: maybe caution, there's no such thing as a luck, but
Speaker 1: I would say this below so that against this guy
Speaker 1: the next time out, Gil, I just.
Speaker 2: Love that you the most mathematical guy in the world,
Speaker 2: the most numbers the guy in the world. Mark Worshit
Speaker 2: is like sometimes it's the eye test. This is an
Speaker 2: eye test.
Speaker 1: Play ah, yeah, this guy, this good. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe again, like it's happened to me with Blackburn, Marty
Speaker 1: Perez had a first half couple of years back that
Speaker 1: was just unbelievable, and now he's regressed to the Marty
Speaker 1: Perez that you know. Uh, but it's so funny, you know.
Speaker 1: For all of that, Gil, remember Josh Tomlin and you
Speaker 1: would be against Josh thumbin all the time. He at
Speaker 1: least had some like decent metrics, like he had good location,
Speaker 1: good command, and like so at least he had something.
Speaker 1: But I can't even say that about this guy, Gil,
Speaker 1: I just have.
Speaker 2: To tribute paying tribute to Martin Perez because for the
Speaker 2: length of time that you have you and I have
Speaker 2: done this podcast, he has been a major league pitcher
Speaker 2: Martin Perez, which is incredible that that's amazing that that
Speaker 2: dude has made it this far. What is his life?
Speaker 2: What is his lifetime era four point four to five
Speaker 2: and yet he's still a major league pitcher all these
Speaker 2: years because he had that one year, right, he had
Speaker 2: that one year in Texas. I mean, he's it was.
Speaker 1: He was an All Star and maybe like like his
Speaker 1: numbers weren't bad either, Like like I had to eat
Speaker 1: a lot of crow there because I bet against him
Speaker 1: a lot, but he I mean, he got to the
Speaker 1: point where I wouldn't bet against him because his numbers
Speaker 1: were decent. In fact, I might have bet on him
Speaker 1: a couple of times, but then he's lost that. But
Speaker 1: shout out to him. You know, I don't know why
Speaker 1: this came to my came to my because we used
Speaker 1: to always like come up with a guy like who
Speaker 1: is the word like from a sabermetric standpoint, Geo Gonzalez.
Speaker 1: That guy used to walk like five guys a game.
Speaker 2: It's so bad. And he yet he pitched, you know,
Speaker 2: and he'd win games. He'd figure out a way despite
Speaker 2: all that. Mark good stuff because we got a we
Speaker 2: gotta fade on Bioso. We got some umpires that we
Speaker 2: need to keep an eye out for. And interesting stuff
Speaker 2: about again the Rockies in the home road splits. I
Speaker 2: mean again, it's just it's ridiculous, tied and tried and true,
Speaker 2: and I do think you know, the Nationals have the
Speaker 2: Nationals and the White Sox, two teams that you would
Speaker 2: not expect. Obviously we talked about the White Size more,
Speaker 2: but two teams that you would not expect to be
Speaker 2: as good as they have been first five for the
Speaker 2: entire year, it has kept up. And so when we
Speaker 2: think about is it is it predictive? Well, at this
Speaker 2: point one hundred and twenty games in one hundred twenty plus,
Speaker 2: it feels like it's kind of gonna go the whole season,
Speaker 2: doesn't it.
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean, and if you run the numbers right,
Speaker 1: you're like, okay, well they're right in the market. From
Speaker 1: an over understandpoint, I think they're setting the market right
Speaker 1: out forty game skill. Let's right about how I have it.
Speaker 1: But like, at some point, is it just like is it?
Speaker 1: Is it not a number sick? Is it a chemistry thing?
Speaker 1: Isn't it just a just a universal like this team's
Speaker 1: gonna be the worst team of all time?
Speaker 2: You're talking about? Can you talking about the White Sox? Yeah,
Speaker 2: I mean it's just ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really exactly.
Speaker 2: Yep, there's never been a they may set the record,
Speaker 2: they may set the record, which again, worst I add
Speaker 2: this up. Let me see if I can find it in
Speaker 2: my notes. But the White Sox right now, let's close
Speaker 2: it with this, just because I'm curious. The White Sox
Speaker 2: right now as we do this podcast, on Monday morning,
Speaker 2: August the nineteenth are thirty and ninety five, thirty and
Speaker 2: ninety five. That is a win percentage of two forty.
Speaker 2: Win percentage of two forty. Now, when we go to
Speaker 2: the historicals on a team like the White Sox, you're
Speaker 2: trying to two things. On a one hundred and sixty
Speaker 2: two game schedule, will they have the worst record? And
Speaker 2: then just period, will they have the worst percentage in
Speaker 2: terms of the worst record. Again, two forty is what
Speaker 2: they're winning percentage is right now as we head into
Speaker 2: the home stretch of the season, and I'm trying to
Speaker 2: get the exact numbers here that I had up for
Speaker 2: the White Sox, and we say, if I can find it,
Speaker 2: as we do this, okay, the A's who are I mean,
Speaker 2: it's not even, It's not close the White Sox. The
Speaker 2: White Sox were actually worse, right they were two thirty five.
Speaker 2: There were twenty seven and eighty eight some time ago.
Speaker 2: Here recently, now they're to forty winning percentage that was
Speaker 2: two thirty five. The nineteen sixteen Philadelphia Athletics were thirty
Speaker 2: six and one seventeen. They had a two thirty five
Speaker 2: winning percentage. The White Sox are two forty right now,
Speaker 2: so they're a little ahead of the pace for the
Speaker 2: worst winning percentage of all time, the worst in one
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty two games schedule, though they were actually
Speaker 2: ahead of, which was the Mets in nineteen sixty two
Speaker 2: who went forty one point twenty and one for a
Speaker 2: two forty eight winning percentage.
Speaker 1: I guess they got a tie in there. I love
Speaker 1: that they had a.
Speaker 2: Tie in there and they had one game that didn't
Speaker 2: get played. The White Socks are are worse than that,
Speaker 2: So they're better than the worst winning percentage of all time,
Speaker 2: the nineteen sixteen Philadelphia Athletics, but they are excuse me,
Speaker 2: they're better than the Philadelphia Athletics of nineteen sixteen, but
Speaker 2: they're worse than the nineteen sixty two Mets in terms
Speaker 2: of one hundred and sixty two game schedule. That's what
Speaker 2: we're dealing with with this team right now.
Speaker 1: And they're right in the market at forty games forty
Speaker 1: and a half games, so that is right on the
Speaker 1: number you can get that, yeah, And I have them
Speaker 1: at forty one point eight, so they the base Winter
Speaker 1: Nembers said that they won't be the worst team of
Speaker 1: all time, but they're I mean, there's room for argument
Speaker 1: because that's not that big of a gap. Forty one
Speaker 1: point a too forty. So anyway, that's that's kind of
Speaker 1: how it shakes out there by by this team. It's
Speaker 1: like you just you just think about it, like, okay,
Speaker 1: if they're gonna win thirty three percent of their games
Speaker 1: plus two hundred and they're winning twenty four percent of
Speaker 1: their games, so like there's more to it than even
Speaker 1: how crappy they are.
Speaker 2: Gil, do you remember what what your pre flop number
Speaker 2: was on them?
Speaker 1: I have it somewhere. It was sixty sixty, maybe sixty
Speaker 1: two or something like that. Yeah, okay, I don't have it.
Speaker 1: I don't have it in front of front in front
Speaker 1: of me.
Speaker 2: But hey, by the way, how did you how did
Speaker 2: your your pre flop season win total bets? Are they
Speaker 2: doing well?
Speaker 1: They're doing okay. You know, I'm losing with the Rays,
Speaker 1: I'm winning with the Twins. There's a couple ones that
Speaker 1: that are like, damn, kind of I'm kind of like
Speaker 1: gonna have to see what happens. But the one that
Speaker 1: the futures that are really paying off for that one,
Speaker 1: that one's a plus five fifty I think, and then
Speaker 1: I've got the Brewers. That's the other win total that
Speaker 1: I have. That's that's almost a winner right now. But
Speaker 1: I have them at plus six hundreds. So I've got
Speaker 1: some good ones that we got. I've got some cruddy ones.
Speaker 1: I'm still holding out of raise though. The Rays are
Speaker 1: like eighty four ish I think, and so that sweep
Speaker 1: of the Dbacks kind of helped. So I was leveraged
Speaker 1: a little bit on the on the Rays and that
Speaker 1: was kind of a bad call. But I think we
Speaker 1: need to when we're introspective, we need to tell people
Speaker 1: when we're good. We also need to tell people when
Speaker 1: we're not so good. With the Rays, I think I
Speaker 1: kind of missed on gil.
Speaker 2: I had two season wins. One was the over. My
Speaker 2: favorite one was the over on the Padres, which is
Speaker 2: cruising home, right. They were they were eighty and a half,
Speaker 2: so they only had to go five hundred. They're they're
Speaker 2: cruising at this point. The Rangers were my only over
Speaker 2: last year, right, my only season win to display. But
Speaker 2: I did have a second one this year that is
Speaker 2: not so good, which is the Cubs over. They really,
Speaker 2: I mean, they got to get to eighty five wins
Speaker 2: and they're they're trending below five hundred right now, so
Speaker 2: they got work to do if they're gonna get to
Speaker 2: eighty two.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, where are they at, like eighty eighty
Speaker 1: ish eighty one? Let's see what I have.
Speaker 2: I mean right now on pace for like seventy nine
Speaker 2: or eighty, right, but it's like.
Speaker 1: This, we've got eighty, I've got eighty in the model.
Speaker 1: But hey, they're still close. There's still there's still hope
Speaker 1: for that. I was opposed to you on that podres play. Yes,
Speaker 1: well I I'm all podres right now. What they've done
Speaker 1: is pretty good. And I think I put that out
Speaker 1: before they got ceased too, So that's nothing that you know,
Speaker 1: if you put him out too early. Yeah, that that's
Speaker 1: a big difference. That's that Dylan Ceases has been. He's
Speaker 1: been quite the pitcher this year.
Speaker 2: Go Mark. Always a pleasure. This is our you know,
Speaker 2: hopefully we can do a we can do a pre
Speaker 2: playoffs one, but you know what, it's always right in
Speaker 2: the middle of football season, so I don't know if
Speaker 2: I have the time to do it. We don't usually
Speaker 2: do it in recent years, but I can't say how
Speaker 2: much I appreciate it, man, just I can't say it enough.
Speaker 2: These are always so.
Speaker 1: Much more pleasure. It's my pleasure. Good to know that
Speaker 1: we've been around for as long as Martin Perez.
Speaker 2: Martin, Martin Perez, Tildy. Yeah, we can't have him retire
Speaker 2: because that means I guess we have to. So please
Speaker 2: please keep pitching, Martin.
Speaker 1: Perez, I got to pitch pitch forever.
Speaker 2: Base Winner Baswinter dot Com based winner on Twitter bet
Speaker 2: us show. What's the quickest way people can access the
Speaker 2: bet us show?
Speaker 1: Do you go to YouTube and type in MLB bet
Speaker 1: us show and you'll get.
Speaker 2: Us Bang, Mark Portraite, everybody at base Winter. Thank you, Mark,
Speaker 2: my pleasure, Gil, good luck with all your baseball bets.
Speaker 2: Hope we gave you something here to make some money
Speaker 2: for us,