WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 Q3 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:04.320 Check it down man. 0:00:05.320 --> 0:00:07.720 Monday morning, August nineteenth, twenty twenty four, it is the 0:00:07.760 --> 0:00:11.800 Beating the Book Podcast, kil Alexander, and it's time for 0:00:11.920 --> 0:00:16.560 the Major League Baseball Q three MLB Derivatives Betting Show. 0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:18.799 I probably said those words out of order, but you 0:00:18.880 --> 0:00:23.439 get the idea. This is the longest running series in 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.640 the history of the Beating the Book Podcast, even longer 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.000 than the megapod and Guessing lines, which of course are 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:30.200 coming up in a couple of weeks. And as always 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:36.400 throughout its entire history, my dog throughout this all he's Batman. 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:39.440 I'm Robin smart Porch at everybody base Winner from an 0:00:39.479 --> 0:00:41.800 undisclosed location somewhere in the desert. What's happened to Mark? 0:00:42.720 --> 0:00:45.400 Oh? I'm enjoying this. I enjoy your intro to you. 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:48.519 It always is so fun. And I jokingly call you 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:50.400 the voice of sports betting, but I really mean that. 0:00:50.479 --> 0:00:52.720 I mean, if you're not the voice of sports betting, 0:00:52.720 --> 0:00:55.160 who the hell is So I say that you're the 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:58.240 voice of sports betting, and you are because I said it, gil. 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:00.000 Oh, thank you. And if you said it, you said 0:01:00.160 --> 0:01:02.760 and that's that it's done. I don't have an alternative. 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:04.240 I'm trying to think who would be the alternative. I 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:05.280 don't know. I don't know. 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.120 Somebody mayby, you know, Ben Ben Wilson has a really 0:01:08.160 --> 0:01:10.119 good voice, but he's just been He's just the baby. 0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:12.479 You know. We've been doing this for the last forty years, Gil, 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:12.800 you know. 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:15.640 But this podcast is older than he is. For God's sakes, 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:17.479 he's twelve. 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:18.640 Yeah, I think he's twelve years. 0:01:18.840 --> 0:01:22.040 He's great. He'll be the most famous person at VISA when. 0:01:21.840 --> 0:01:23.320 He does have a good voice. I don't know. I 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.000 think I think I would vote for your voice over 0:01:25.000 --> 0:01:26.759 his voice, as much as I love his voice. 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.800 That's the end of the podcast. Everybody, thank you. Let's 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:32.399 be wonderful. Thank you, Mark, You're very kind. Let us 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.360 begin as we always do, so these are going to 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:38.800 get more proprietary as this show goes on, right, These 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:40.800 are going to be more proprietary as these shows go on. 0:01:41.080 --> 0:01:43.080 As the show goes on, we'll get to five innings, 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:46.160 first five's, we'll get to first inning bets. We start though, 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:48.560 with the more common one, which is all right, as 0:01:48.560 --> 0:01:51.120 we round the quarter pole here, right, because we just 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.960 passed the quarter pole mark less than forty games now 0:01:55.480 --> 0:01:58.440 left in the Major League Baseball season. This is the 0:01:58.440 --> 0:02:01.400 Bizarro exercise. You've been on every one of these teams 0:02:02.120 --> 0:02:04.920 on the money line every single game, whether they're a 0:02:04.960 --> 0:02:07.680 favorite or a dog. Who mark do you have as 0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:09.640 the most profitable team in all of baseball? We have 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:13.440 a new one, the Guardians. Well what I have, Oh, 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:16.480 it Covers their second. This is these numbers to me, 0:02:16.560 --> 0:02:21.119 comes from Covers. They have the Milwaukee Brewers as number one. 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:24.080 Oh, it's really close. It's neck and ex So this 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:27.280 ghost comes from killersports dot Com. I really like their 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:28.800 Those guys are good guys. 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:29.919 It's my buddy boss Sack. 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.400 Yeah, well, shout out to him for what he's put together, 0:02:33.440 --> 0:02:36.360 because it is. It is nice. They've changed the interface 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:40.280 and it's it's beautiful. It literally is gorgeous. Not as 0:02:40.280 --> 0:02:43.639 good as your voice, but close. So we got Guardians. 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.440 If you bet on them, I guess it's one hundred 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:49.240 a game. You're thirteen forty eight up and then Brewers 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.600 are thirteen twenty two. That's how close it is. Gil. 0:02:53.160 --> 0:02:55.880 They have it at Milwaukee fifteen and a half units up, 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:58.160 Cleveland twelve and a half units up. So for them 0:02:58.200 --> 0:03:00.160 it's it's I mean, it's super close. When you look 0:03:00.160 --> 0:03:02.560 at out of the course of the whole season either way, 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:05.320 Milwaukee the sneaky freaky brother sneaking in from the rear 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:06.720 to quote the great l Cool Jay. 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:10.959 It's such a trippy team too, because if you look 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:14.200 at their components, like, oh gosh, you know, I'm looking 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.640 at what I do when I run my Monty Carlos 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:21.799 simulations is I have It's basically, you know, offensive production 0:03:22.560 --> 0:03:27.120 minus defensive runs allowed, if you will. And Milwaukee's like 0:03:27.200 --> 0:03:29.520 number eleven. And of course that's with the yellich out 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.600 of the lineup and their components. But they've been doing 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:35.080 it and Pat Murphy a great coach, He's been putting 0:03:35.080 --> 0:03:37.920 it together. I just still I don't know. And this 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:40.200 is coming from a guy. Gil. I'm sitting on like 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:43.240 a plus five fifty Brewers to win the division ticket. 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.000 So I really like them at the beginning of the year. 0:03:46.000 --> 0:03:48.960 But I've got them about eleventh, Gil, So interesting. 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:51.080 Don't you also have an a didn't you have them 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.320 one to two exact of Milwaukee in somebody? 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:56.280 I had Milwaukee in the Cubs. I don't know if 0:03:56.280 --> 0:03:59.560 that's that's gonna happen or not. I can tell you 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:02.600 what the percentages is if you can fillibuster for a 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:09.000 second based on my projections. For me, it's it's not 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.600 going to happen. It looks more well, No, the Cubs 0:04:11.720 --> 0:04:14.560 Brewers Cubs forty two point two percent for that to happen. 0:04:14.600 --> 0:04:16.800 So I actually it is a favorite. I checked that. 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.520 I take that back so that I don't know what 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:21.520 it paid at the beginning of the year, but so 0:04:21.680 --> 0:04:23.880 it's the favorite in that division to happen right now. 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:29.520 Gil Milwaukee, Cleveland, neck and neck, followed by some distance 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:33.719 between these three teams. San Diego, Arizona, Kansas City. Washington 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:36.240 at six is still the funny one right fifty six 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.520 and sixty nine, But they've been a dog so often 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:42.799 that they have gotten again bizarro exercise. I guess the question, 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:44.760 as always with this is it's fun to talk about, 0:04:44.760 --> 0:04:49.240 but predictive wise, do you feel like Milwaukee, Cleveland, San Diego, Arizona, 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:51.960 Kansas City, those five down the stretch will still be there? 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:53.320 I kind of do. 0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:56.279 I think I think that they. I mean, are you 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:59.680 talking about like traditional standings or you talk about like 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.640 are they going to be the profitable the most profitable team? Well, 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.239 because they built up such a such a portfolio today, 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.240 so that they should be. I mean, I don't think 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:10.920 that there's any glaring weakness with any of the teams. 0:05:10.960 --> 0:05:13.800 I think that when you stack them up against the Dodgers, 0:05:13.800 --> 0:05:15.839 if they're healthy, that's a big if. With the Dodgers 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:18.200 and the Padres, then it starts to break down a 0:05:18.240 --> 0:05:20.400 little bit. But as far as what they've done from 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:23.640 a profit standpoint, I don't think there's anything wrong with 0:05:23.800 --> 0:05:25.960 playing these teams. I know that you're kind of leveraged 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:27.640 a little bit on the Royals a little bit. I 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.039 guess the Royals Diamondbacks, don't. I don't hate that. 0:05:30.200 --> 0:05:36.480 Yeah, I've got the Diamondbacks best record at which is 0:05:36.520 --> 0:05:39.560 a number. I have number one seed at thirteen to 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:43.120 one or twelve to one, number one seed National League. 0:05:43.160 --> 0:05:46.200 I have best record in Major League Baseball at forty 0:05:46.240 --> 0:05:49.440 to one. I have the Diamondbacks versus the Royals in 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:52.320 the World Series at four hundred to one. How about 0:05:52.320 --> 0:05:54.800 that all? Well, that's that's yeah. 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:57.159 That's a that's some that's some leverage there on the 0:05:57.200 --> 0:06:00.760 Diamondbacks scale. So that I bet you you didn't you 0:06:00.760 --> 0:06:02.799 weren't a big fan of what happened this weekend. 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.840 No, I was not, But I mean Jeff Passing did 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.200 you see this Jeff Passing tweet which I think was great. 0:06:08.960 --> 0:06:11.240 Jeff Passon put out a tweet last night which really 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.000 expressed to me, I mean, beyond the numbers, we're going 0:06:14.040 --> 0:06:15.560 to look at here. Just like you know, I've been 0:06:15.560 --> 0:06:17.960 saying this is the year to take a long shot 0:06:18.040 --> 0:06:22.640 fly er on something because these teams are so bunched 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:27.000 up it's incredible. Here's here's what Passen said. He goes, 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:29.480 this is shaping up to be the weirdest. I'll get 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:32.080 you exact words here. This is shaping up to be 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:35.119 the weirdest baseball season in a decade. Was six weeks left. 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:38.880 Here are the dozen best records in MLB. Basically the 0:06:38.880 --> 0:06:41.960 Phillies at seventy three and fifty one down to the 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.200 Braves at sixty six and fifty eight. Actually, if you 0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:47.520 take the Astros and Braves out, who are eleven and twelve. 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:51.599 The top ten teams Phillies to Diamondbacks are all separated 0:06:51.640 --> 0:06:55.039 by four wins. And if you look at run differential 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:59.480 best run differential, the Yankees at plus one sixteen are 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.240 the most. And if you go down eleven the Twins 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:04.960 are plus seventy, and that Yankees at plus one sixteen. 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:07.599 Passing goes on to say, first of all, with the record, 0:07:07.640 --> 0:07:09.680 he says, the best team in MLB is on pace 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:12.320 for ninety five wins. Last year without a one hundred 0:07:12.360 --> 0:07:15.240 win team was twenty fourteen. That was the third Giants 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:18.160 World Series mark if you're scoring at home. And then similarly, 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:20.600 the last time the top run differential in baseball was 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:23.560 less than two thirty one to the positive plus two 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:26.040 thirty one. Remember, the Yankees lead with a quarter of 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.160 the season left at plus one sixteen, less than a 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.280 quarter of the season, so basically it's barely half that 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:33.440 at the moment. All of which he says is a 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:35.880 year after a ninety win wildcard team faced an eighty 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:38.080 four win wild guard team in the World Series, the 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:40.480 twenty twenty four Championship looks us up for grabs. This 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.600 has been in a long time. I couldn't agree more. 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:45.120 Now watch them, Yeah, I know it's interest now watching 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:46.360 the Yankees. 0:07:45.920 --> 0:07:47.280 And the Dodgers in the World Series. 0:07:48.240 --> 0:07:51.440 Yeah, you know. My The highest run projection I have 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:56.400 based on the simulations is Yankees ninety four point three. 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.000 As I as I've browsers soor check that the Phillies 0:07:59.080 --> 0:08:02.960 ninety four point six, so right there, less than ninety 0:08:03.000 --> 0:08:07.440 five wins. I don't know if I necessarily agree with that. 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:11.400 I think that the gots the depth of that, and 0:08:11.440 --> 0:08:16.360 the Dodgers are such as it's really perplexing because we 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:18.920 don't know the health of Glass now. We don't know 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:21.440 the healthy Yamamoto and I don't know. And this is 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:25.400 for me, the most challenging part of handicapping as I've 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.200 delved into more future betting and simulations is trying to 0:08:29.320 --> 0:08:33.640 predict that injury and really trying to decipher what's going 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:36.520 on because you know, they So this is a good example. 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:40.640 Gil Yamamoda pitches a simulated game yesterday and oh how 0:08:40.640 --> 0:08:41.000 did he look? 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:41.120 Oh? 0:08:41.200 --> 0:08:43.240 Dave Roberts, Oh he looked great, he looked really good. 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:45.400 What is he going to say? Oh? God, I don't 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:48.160 We're really concerned about him. He looks like shit, you know, 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:50.000 I mean, what are they going to say? 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:50.120 So? 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:54.120 I think that's that's tough to figure out these injuries. 0:08:54.120 --> 0:08:55.800 And I know that you can go down the list 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:58.880 of teams and how it affects them. I think for me, 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:03.280 the the future of futures. Handicapping, if you will, is 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:07.040 trying to predict these injuries to the best of our ability, 0:09:07.040 --> 0:09:08.719 and there's gonna be noise no matter how you do it. 0:09:09.040 --> 0:09:11.920 But for me, I'm sorry I went off on a 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.959 tangent there, but I think that's that's super important because 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.120 I think if Glass now and Yamamoto come back, it's 0:09:18.160 --> 0:09:22.200 going to be a hard task to beat those Dodgers, Gill, It's. 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.679 Going to be fascinating how this turns out. And again, already, 0:09:24.720 --> 0:09:27.360 even if it wasn't like this, as I've said many times, 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:29.800 the incongruence between playing one hundred and sixty two games 0:09:29.800 --> 0:09:31.079 and then having to do a best of three and 0:09:31.120 --> 0:09:34.079 a best of five in baseball is a cruel playoff 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:37.760 format anyway, So like it's just going to be mayhem. 0:09:37.960 --> 0:09:40.640 I think it's only it is it is. That's a 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:43.920 really good point as far as the probability of you know, 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:46.520 if you're sixty percent to win a three game series, 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:49.000 you know, even if you put it binomially as opposed 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:51.880 to a seventh game, seven game series, there's a big 0:09:51.880 --> 0:09:53.920 difference from a probability standpoint on that guild. That is 0:09:54.000 --> 0:09:55.560 a really good point, it's. 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:58.319 It's crazy, and I mean, as I look at the 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:02.320 standings now, though, do you think that the twelve teams 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:04.440 that are in We talked about this a little bit 0:10:04.480 --> 0:10:06.600 on air, but I'll talk let's have the same question 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:08.640 here on the podcast. Do you think that the twelve 0:10:08.640 --> 0:10:12.160 teams that are in playoff position right now are going 0:10:12.240 --> 0:10:13.880 to be the twelve teams that are going to be in? 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:18.240 Well, I think that the will. So this is how 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:21.960 I have We'll talk about from a league standpoint, Phillies 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:25.280 to win that division, make the playoffs. To make the playoffs, 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.360 the Phillies ninety nine point five percent of the time, 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:34.760 Dodgers are ninety nine percent, Brewers ninety nine percent, and 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.720 then we have the Podres for me are ninety eight percent. 0:10:38.800 --> 0:10:44.439 So those four pretty pretty much. There Braves eighty seven percent, 0:10:44.480 --> 0:10:46.240 So you can say that's five. So it's going to 0:10:46.280 --> 0:10:51.600 be between the Mets, the Diamondbacks and roughly and the Giants, 0:10:51.640 --> 0:10:56.000 maybe with an outside chance, and so maybe you give 0:10:56.040 --> 0:10:58.800 the Giants an eight percent chance and then you split 0:10:59.400 --> 0:11:01.960 the diamond Backs are close to seventy percent and the 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:03.480 Mets have that the rest of. 0:11:03.440 --> 0:11:07.120 That then the Mets just refuse refuse to take that 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:08.559 position from the braves. 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.559 It's so bad, you know this this Mets team, and 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:14.400 I want to give a person like a picture to 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:17.679 bet again. So this Vincente. Beloso, and I was listening 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:19.120 to the game and I had a little bit of 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:22.840 cash on the Mets yesterday they lost, but talking listening 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:26.360 to how he Rose broadcast the game, describing the picture 0:11:26.880 --> 0:11:29.640 as a beer League pitcher looks like a Beer League 0:11:29.640 --> 0:11:32.959 picture out there, that he's doing it with smoke and mirrors, 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:34.880 And this is the guy howis been in the game 0:11:34.920 --> 0:11:37.000 a long time, So I trust what he says. I 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:40.040 am playing against Beloso the next time he comes out. 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:43.800 Oh I like that. Okay, fade Beloso. 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.839 Of a Beer League picture and smoking mirrors. Okay, I'll 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:49.640 go against it. And his numbers are his numbers are 0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:52.520 awful too, I mean just sabermetrically, so of course. 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:56.040 Uh okay, I can't wait for I cannot wait to 0:11:56.080 --> 0:11:58.280 see this. How do you spell his last name? For 0:11:58.320 --> 0:11:59.920 those who are like Beloso, how do you spell it? 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:03.280 He's a Miami Marlin guy and as b E l 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:07.120 l O z O volent sounds like aol. Yeah, it 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:07.839 sounds like an opera. 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:10.400 Singer, right, Gil, does he wear number eighty three? Is 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:10.839 that true? 0:12:11.400 --> 0:12:14.120 He does? And then I said that there and that 0:12:14.200 --> 0:12:16.080 was another thing that he said. Now he's number eighty three. 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.240 It's like we're in a spring training game and this 0:12:18.360 --> 0:12:21.720 is like and like, without going off on them, that's batters, 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:23.959 like how can these guys not hit him? And they 0:12:24.000 --> 0:12:26.640 kept the guys off balanced to be fair, but I 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:29.920 think that like a good approach with this guy would 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:31.280 go a long way. Gill, Oh, that's all. 0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:33.280 I'm all right, I like that. All right, let's get there. 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:35.280 By the way, let's just rattle through some of these 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.280 numbers here the worst money line teams. I'm not even 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:41.920 gonna mention anyone beyond number one because number two is 0:12:41.920 --> 0:12:44.200 all the way at like you'd be hemorrhage sixteen and 0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:46.319 a half units on the Rangers. But it's not even 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:48.560 worth talking about anybody after number one. I think in 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.120 the entire history that you and I have been doing 0:12:51.200 --> 0:12:53.640 this show, I don't think there's ever been as big 0:12:53.679 --> 0:12:56.280 a gap between one and everybody else as there is here. 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:58.880 You know who it is full game we're talking because 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:02.160 you and I talked about the five full game difference 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:04.640 last time, and we'll get into that momentarily. But if 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:06.839 you bet the Chicago White Sox every one of their 0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:09.160 one hundred and twenty five games so far this year, 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:12.040 and of course if you're doing that, you're doing something 0:13:12.120 --> 0:13:15.480 terribly wrong. But if you had, you'd be down forty 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.120 eight and a half units. 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:20.440 Have we ever known that before? It's worse on this 0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.440 this fifty one point five on Killer Sports, But no, 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:27.400 I don't remember it like we have any And you know, 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.160 this team's bad, but they've they really should have more 0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.040 wins than they do. Just even you think about, like 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.679 if you're gonna win, if you're you're at plus two hundred, right, 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.600 that's thirty three percent, you're gonna win thirty three percent 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.800 of their games. And then they haven't done that, so like, 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.079 and that's just from a talent standpoint. I don't know 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.000 what's going on with that White Sox team. I'm happy 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:46.640 about it. I did have the White Sox. They have 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.880 the worst worst record in baseball, but I'm getting like 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:53.280 absolutely no suspense. I mean right, so, like, you know, 0:13:53.640 --> 0:13:55.720 it's a fun bet. That's a really fun betkill because 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:57.720 you can check well, you know, you can root against 0:13:57.720 --> 0:14:00.280 it in this this year's case. You can root against 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:03.800 the Rockies. You could root against the Marlins. Now it's like, Okay, 0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:05.680 well I won the best, so now I'm happy. I 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:07.760 check shit. I'll be happy if I win the damn 0:14:07.760 --> 0:14:11.240 bet forty five days before the season end. Skilled that's 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:12.040 pretty amazing. 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:14.120 By the way, if we did the home road splits, 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:19.360 Cleveland edges Colorado as the best money line home team. 0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:23.200 Again Bizarro exercise, you bet them every single game, favorite 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:26.800 or dog, Cleveland edging the Rockies at Coors as the 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:31.080 best home team. No surprise, the Diamondbacks seventeen a little 0:14:31.080 --> 0:14:33.200 more than seventeen and a half of their lost units 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:37.200 were at home more than thirty lost on the road. 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:39.760 If you're a White Sox backer and the best away team, 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:44.200 San Diego edging the Yankees closely followed by the Red 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:47.240 Sox is the best three away money line teams by 0:14:47.240 --> 0:14:50.520 the way run line de facto power power rating. If 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:52.640 you will your favorite, you win by more than a 0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.360 run and a half, you're a dog. You sometimes get 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.720 a win because you're a win in the betting column, 0:14:58.760 --> 0:15:00.720 because you're a dog of a a run and a half. 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.800 So sometimes if you lose and you only lose by 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:05.920 the one run you get the win in those cases. 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:10.800 Baltimore by far the best run line team nineteen units 0:15:10.800 --> 0:15:14.240 of the positive, more than doubling up the Royals as 0:15:14.280 --> 0:15:15.760 the number two best run line team. 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:19.360 You have that, I don't you know, I'm fascinated by 0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.600 because we do this every year, Gal, and yet Tom 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.120 correct me if I'm wrong. Home away Rockies at home 0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:27.360 number two, like a way they're like down towards the bottom, 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:28.560 Like isn't this every year? 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:29.560 Like it's incredible? 0:15:29.680 --> 0:15:32.640 Can we learn? Can we learn? At age fifty four? 0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:34.320 Gill Right, Yeah, but. 0:15:34.440 --> 0:15:37.360 That's that's the thing about the Rockies though, getting back 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:38.880 to the money line, home and Roads. We'll get to 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:41.840 the run lines in a minute, but the Rockies home 0:15:41.920 --> 0:15:45.560 and Road, this is what they've been. The fact that 0:15:45.560 --> 0:15:47.800 they got to the World Series once is pretty mind 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:53.920 blowing because you're essentially having to roster two completely different 0:15:54.000 --> 0:15:57.560 baseball teams that with Cores as your home field, right 0:15:58.000 --> 0:16:00.400 because and I know guys who have I know at 0:16:00.480 --> 0:16:03.120 least one guy who has played on that team, and 0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:07.120 he will say it, you're playing Cores. It's just so 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.000 hit or friendly. I remember Sergio Roma, I always use 0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:14.280 a Sergio Romo example, his slider simply didn't slide at Cours. 0:16:15.240 --> 0:16:17.520 And of course the dimensions are it's a prairie, right, 0:16:17.560 --> 0:16:22.280 so it's doubles and triples galore. But then those same players, right, 0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:25.480 pitchers and batters alike, then have to go on the road, 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:29.280 and all of a sudden, the hitters don't have the 0:16:29.320 --> 0:16:33.200 confidence that they've built up artificially in the environment that 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:36.880 is cores and pitchers. The pitches don't pitch, you know, 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:39.120 the pitches don't go the same way. So it's your 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:42.440 like playing two completely different games. 0:16:43.280 --> 0:16:46.520 Yeah, no, it's really weird because and like for me, 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:51.080 like these guys are the guys the Olympic distance runners. 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:52.880 They'll train an altitude and then they'll go down and 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:55.000 run and see the level so your body feels better. 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.840 But I think that there's difference. You made a good 0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:03.400 point about how the ball moves. Baseball might not necessarily 0:17:03.440 --> 0:17:06.040 be how fit you are, you know, it might be 0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:09.000 how you see the pitch and on how much you 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:12.280 can what kind of curve or lack of curve, if 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:14.000 you will, you can put on it. But I just 0:17:14.040 --> 0:17:16.120 thought that that was so interesting because we've been talking 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.880 about this for years, and I will admittedly say that 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:22.359 I haven't taken advantage of it. I guess as much 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:23.040 as I should. 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.480 Have, I haven't either. I haven't either. It's one of 0:17:25.480 --> 0:17:28.640 those things that you know again, it's it's predictive. It's 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:31.160 not only narrative, it's predictive, which is why we do 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:34.080 these derivative shows. We're not just trying to talk about it. 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:36.960 We're trying to find things that are predictive. It never fails. 0:17:37.640 --> 0:17:40.720 And yet that's just not the way our brains work 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:42.800 when it comes to baseball, right, Like we're not thinking 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:44.560 on a daily base as well. The Rockies are on 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:46.960 the road. I'm just gonna blanket, you know which, by 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:48.760 the way, I have been doing with those monthly baseball 0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:50.479 bets up until the Mets this month, by the way, 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.840 because they've been so bad. But those monthly baseball bets, 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:56.960 like I was brain dead betting the Guardians in March 0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.200 April and May it worked out great. A brain dead 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:03.359 bet the uh the Astros in June they ended up winning. June, 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:06.800 I brained dead bet the Royals they finished ninth, and 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.160 it finally took a fifth month for that not to work. 0:18:09.200 --> 0:18:11.119 On the Mets, because the Mets have been got awful 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:11.960 in August. 0:18:12.359 --> 0:18:13.480 But we don't do that. 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:15.359 With the Rockies. And maybe you're right, maybe we should. 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:16.080 Maybe I don't. 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:18.680 Again, I think that we got to be like introspective 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:21.240 as much as we can. But I will give you 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:25.639 props for for being I guess introspective about you, I 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:28.359 guess I don't know how. I don't even know what 0:18:28.400 --> 0:18:31.120 the word is for that. You probably do, but that's 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:35.280 a good approach you're taking. You're going a month, right, Yeah, 0:18:35.320 --> 0:18:37.480 you're taking a lot of variants out of the out 0:18:37.480 --> 0:18:41.439 of the thing. And I think that, like, and you're 0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.040 good at this, just like looking at it right, you 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:47.199 can model it. But the schedule is so important. So 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:50.800 like I remember, like you betting the Astros and they 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:52.960 played the As one hundred times and they played the 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:56.400 White Sox one hundred times. I'm kind of exaggerating there, 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:58.680 but but taking a look at that schedule, I don't 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.440 know if that's factored factored in. And so I commend 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:03.679 you on your approach. I think that that's that's a 0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:06.000