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Speaker 1: now live in Ohio. This is prime Cuts. The best
Speaker 1: of the Colin Coward Podcast. Great great stuff this week.
Speaker 1: Matt Moseley really fantastic giving us insight behind the rope
Speaker 1: on Mike McCarthy that big win over the Bucks, plus
Speaker 1: the best parts of my converse sation with my buddy
Speaker 1: John Middlecoff, former NFL Scout three and out podcast on
Speaker 1: the win by the Niners Chad Millman as well are
Speaker 1: divisional round bets. But first my top takes of the week,
Speaker 1: So I thought this was interesting. In my career, I've
Speaker 1: tried to never back management into a corner, but there
Speaker 1: have been as I have gained popularity, concessions companies have
Speaker 1: been willing to make if I want certain time off
Speaker 1: or a certain number of people on a staff. And
Speaker 1: the more popular I've become, generally in any business, the
Speaker 1: more leverage you have, and you know, companies will give
Speaker 1: me certain things. I don't ask for a ton. I'm
Speaker 1: not real high maintenance on this stuff. And it's understood
Speaker 1: in a lot of entertainment businesses. And let's be honest,
Speaker 1: I'm not analogous to Tom Cruise, but Top Gun makes
Speaker 1: a billion four. There's concessions made Lebron James, Tom Brady.
Speaker 1: They're concessions made. But in order to get those, in
Speaker 1: any industry, you've got to deliver on the other end.
Speaker 1: This is what's interesting. So Aaron Rodgers wants concessions by
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. He listed five offensive players, only
Speaker 1: one his elite that he wants the Packers to bring
Speaker 1: back if he'll return. Alanzar, Randall Cobb, Mercedes Lewis, Robert
Speaker 1: Tyne in the tight end are not dynamic players. They're
Speaker 1: unrestricted free agents. So the packers will have to pay
Speaker 1: more than their worth to retain them. So the takeaway
Speaker 1: as well, you get Aaron Rodgers. So I went back
Speaker 1: with my staff and I said, what is the payoff?
Speaker 1: For Aaron. Let's go to Aaron Rodgers last ten what
Speaker 1: we would call big games, and we tried to as
Speaker 1: a staff be very fair. He had five this year.
Speaker 1: The play in game with the Lions, Christmas Day at Miami,
Speaker 1: that Philadelphia game that was a standalone game, Cowboy game
Speaker 1: at Lambeau, and I think it was a Sunday night
Speaker 1: game against the Buffalo Bills. Those were the five big games. Now,
Speaker 1: he also lost to the Vikings in the opener. You
Speaker 1: could say the season openers a big game, but I
Speaker 1: don't really count that as a big game. That would
Speaker 1: benefit my argument, but I didn't do that. So in
Speaker 1: those games he had two wins and three losses. Then
Speaker 1: we went the previous year and we counted the big
Speaker 1: games as the Niner game that he won during the
Speaker 1: regular season and played very well, the Division round Niners
Speaker 1: game he lost, and there was a Rams game Week
Speaker 1: twelve that was build as the big game on TV
Speaker 1: for Fox that he eventually won. We went to the
Speaker 1: previous year and the two games that felt big were
Speaker 1: the NFC Championship and that game against Brady down in
Speaker 1: Tampa was the first time they'd met. Brady is a
Speaker 1: Buck and so we went and we build those as
Speaker 1: the ten biggest games, eight regular season, two playoff games,
Speaker 1: and the play in game for Detroit we think classifies.
Speaker 1: So Aaron wants all sorts of concessions. He wants five,
Speaker 1: four of which are mediocre offensive players to return. So
Speaker 1: what am I getting for that? Tom Cruise concessions. Top
Speaker 1: gun makes one point four billion lebron for years. Concessions
Speaker 1: end up in the finals. Miami made a lot of concessions,
Speaker 1: got to the finals four straight years. So Aaron wants
Speaker 1: these concessions. Let's go to his last three years what
Speaker 1: we classify as the ten big games, and here's what
Speaker 1: you get. He's four and six, sixteen touchdowns, seven picks,
Speaker 1: averages two hundred thirty yards. Those are Matt Ryan numbers.
Speaker 1: Those aren't close to Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Herbert. They're not close.
Speaker 1: They're not close to the last five good games for
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. Aaron wants these concessions. He's not delivering championship
Speaker 1: level football. One of the reasons he's not as committed
Speaker 1: in the off season. Other reasons he's not willing to
Speaker 1: play with new teammates work out with them in the
Speaker 1: off season. But we thought this was incredibly fair. We
Speaker 1: went back as his staff and picked the ten big games.
Speaker 1: I'm talking not one o'clock windows. Mostly, we're talking against
Speaker 1: Brady Niners, playoffs Christmas Miami, by the way, trail big
Speaker 1: in that until TWA started throwing the picks two who
Speaker 1: had a concussion late in the first half. So if
Speaker 1: you're gonna ask for concessions, you gotta deliver ratings, box
Speaker 1: office finals appearances. Aaron no longer is four and six,
Speaker 1: last ten games sixteen t seven picks two hundred thirty
Speaker 1: yards a game. That's not close to the top six
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in this league. So I saw where the Chargers
Speaker 1: decided to keep Brandon s Daily and instead fire their
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator and their passing game coordinator. I rolled my
Speaker 1: eyes at it because seven of the eight remaining head
Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL playoffs, seven of eight are offensive coaches.
Speaker 1: Last year, all seven NFC teams that made the playoffs
Speaker 1: had offensive coaches. Folks, It's not an offensive coordinator issue
Speaker 1: for the Chargers. It's a defensive head coach issue. If
Speaker 1: you go look at the Chargers first and second half splits,
Speaker 1: they were a terrible second half team. Offensively and defensively.
Speaker 1: What does that tell you? It tells you they have
Speaker 1: a young coach who is struggling once off the script,
Speaker 1: game time decisions, situational play calling. They're a bad second
Speaker 1: half offense. How they have Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams,
Speaker 1: often Eckler, above average offensive line. I went and looked
Speaker 1: at the second half offensive numbers for the Chargers. Their
Speaker 1: bottom six in the league. The other five teams surrounding
Speaker 1: them are all anemic at quarterback. Justin Herbert is the
Speaker 1: only top ten quarterback in the league that is in
Speaker 1: the bottom of second half offensive statistics. That's not your
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, that's your coach. The only defensive coach left
Speaker 1: in the playoffs is Sean McDermott. He can't figure out
Speaker 1: the Bill's old line for five years. Their run game
Speaker 1: is not substantial outside of Josh Allen, and Allen has
Speaker 1: regressed as a quarterback since Brian dave All left. It's
Speaker 1: a defensive organization and culture, I mean the Chargers. Sometimes
Speaker 1: you have to take a deep breath and look at
Speaker 1: how a business landscape is changing. Football now is rewarding
Speaker 1: offensive head coaches and offensive cultures. Look at the Patriots.
Speaker 1: Bill Belicheck feels out of touch. Bears defensive coach, last place,
Speaker 1: Washington defensive coach, last place, Jets defensive coach, last place,
Speaker 1: Houston defensive coach, last place, Chargers. You made a mistake.
Speaker 1: You could have hired Brian Dable. You hired Brandon Staley.
Speaker 1: And my sources tell me at times he can be
Speaker 1: a notable. At times he can be stubborn. They basically
Speaker 1: gave him an ultimatum, make coaching changes or you're out.
Speaker 1: He made coaching changes, but I don't think in the
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Speaker 1: All right, I bring in my longtime friend Matt Moseley,
Speaker 1: co host of the Doomsday Podcast with Ed Werder. How
Speaker 1: is Ed? I haven't seen Ed in sometime. How is
Speaker 1: the old gent doing? Doing fine? Doing fine? Put in
Speaker 1: a full day of work on that playoff game, and
Speaker 1: certainly let me know about that was out there for
Speaker 1: about twelve hours. So the man loves to get to
Speaker 1: a game early, stay late, and he was shutting it
Speaker 1: down with the Doomsday Podcast from the stadium there with
Speaker 1: the ship with a pirate ship in it last night
Speaker 1: at about one or two in the morning, he was podcasting,
Speaker 1: So he's a he's still getting napped. So the bad news,
Speaker 1: let's just get that out of the way, is the
Speaker 1: Niners were done Saturday afternoon. The Cowboys have almost a
Speaker 1: two and a half day preparation debit going into this game.
Speaker 1: I bet they're not happy about it. No, and I
Speaker 1: don't think it'll happen again. I do think the league
Speaker 1: will address it. But everybody, including people who are not
Speaker 1: with us anymore, Lamar Hunt being one of them, are
Speaker 1: looking down and laughing at the Cowboys over this because
Speaker 1: he fought for years thinking they had a Thanksgiving, you know,
Speaker 1: the whole Thanksgiving and how that went, and how they
Speaker 1: got to be home every game on Thanksgiving. That was
Speaker 1: a huge deal over the year. So some people think
Speaker 1: the Cowboys have been getting favors from the league for many,
Speaker 1: many years. So if one team needs to a franchise
Speaker 1: needs to suffer this fate, it should be the Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 1: But I think in the future you won't see a
Speaker 1: team finish up more than forty eight hours before another
Speaker 1: team who's then coming to their place. I think the
Speaker 1: league will find a way not to have that happen again.
Speaker 1: And I think it is somewhat of a factory and
Speaker 1: it provides it provides a built an excuse if the
Speaker 1: Cowboys lose to the Great Brock Party. One of the
Speaker 1: things about Dallas, you know, I said this today in
Speaker 1: defense of Mike McCarthy. This is a top five offense
Speaker 1: in the league, rebuilding the old line. Still don't have
Speaker 1: a clear number two. Hieron Smith out for most of
Speaker 1: the year. Dalton Schultzman's two games and really wasn't good
Speaker 1: until post Thanksgiving. All that said, Aaron Rodgers red zone poor,
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers offense poor. That divorced the more and more
Speaker 1: you look at it. Mike went forward one with Cooper
Speaker 1: f and rush that. It's easy because Aaron's on every commercial.
Speaker 1: He's a star quarterback, he's an MVP to weigh in
Speaker 1: on that breakup and favor Aaron. But I look at
Speaker 1: this season for Mike. They're playing their best football now.
Speaker 1: Dalton Schultz is now a real factor. I didn't think
Speaker 1: he was eight weeks ago. Do you think has there
Speaker 1: been anything that you, Matt, have changed your opinion on
Speaker 1: regarding McCarthy this year where you may have been a
Speaker 1: tad cynical and you've come to appreciate him. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think I was more than a tad sit of cool. Colin.
Speaker 1: You're being kind to me to say just a tad cynical.
Speaker 1: I don't know if really I ever had the full
Speaker 1: respect that I do now, and you mentioned it. The
Speaker 1: Cooper Rush aspect of this weighs heavy on Jerry, and
Speaker 1: it weighs out everybody, and a lot of lately people
Speaker 1: are trying to figure out, Okay, what was going on
Speaker 1: with Dak. I mean, what happened last night, with the
Speaker 1: way Dak played was the enormous story coming out of
Speaker 1: this game. And I do think Mike McCarthy one thing
Speaker 1: he did, and I think he did a pretty good
Speaker 1: job with aaron of this boy. He takes care of
Speaker 1: his quarterbacks and he takes care of the relationship. And
Speaker 1: early on when Dak had some injuries and was coming
Speaker 1: back from some things, there's some stories about Mike McCarthy
Speaker 1: going over to his house and spending hours upon hours
Speaker 1: with him. So he's certainly, you know, it is funny.
Speaker 1: Sean Payton a guy you like a lot. I've pretty
Speaker 1: well over the years. He's a sexier choice. I mean,
Speaker 1: is he a better coach, Sure, sure he is, just
Speaker 1: because he's a brighter, more innovative, offensive mine. But McCarthy
Speaker 1: has sort of a way with these players, and I
Speaker 1: don't know if we ever fully give him credit for that,
Speaker 1: but I thought you saw it with a Cooper Rush thing,
Speaker 1: because on this very podcast, when they opened with that
Speaker 1: awful loss a deck injury, he was already playing poorly
Speaker 1: before the injury. It looked like there was no hope
Speaker 1: for this team. So who else do you give a
Speaker 1: credit for? I mean, you gotta give us some to
Speaker 1: Cooper Rush, maybe to Kellen Moore for maybe the way
Speaker 1: he called some of these games. But Mike sort of
Speaker 1: presided over all of that, you know, And I think
Speaker 1: that's I think the thing that's been tough for him
Speaker 1: over the years is, you know, not calling plays because
Speaker 1: a lot of these guys, they are a whole identity
Speaker 1: is tied up in that, and it's why sometimes we
Speaker 1: don't even know what the chiefs right. It's like wait,
Speaker 1: who wait, who's calling plays? Its Andy is you know,
Speaker 1: is being amy? I mean, there's there's some debate because
Speaker 1: some of these head coaches have such a hard time
Speaker 1: giving that up. So there have been coaches for the
Speaker 1: Cowboys that have been told, okay, you're not doing anymore.
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett had taken away from him. McCarthy just said,
Speaker 1: you know what, this is what it requires of me
Speaker 1: to become the head coach there. I've got to give
Speaker 1: this up, and he's done a pretty good job with it.
Speaker 1: And he's certainly you can't accuse the guy of micromanaging
Speaker 1: like you can, you know. I mean, he's he's got
Speaker 1: the laminated chart. He'd like to fold it over, but
Speaker 1: he's not even like think about that. Last night we
Speaker 1: talk about how great Dak was. How did he start
Speaker 1: that game? Two? Three and out? Stories oh for three.
Speaker 1: He looks shaky, Sandy looks jittery. To him, it's not
Speaker 1: going well. And I think Mike McCarthy's just kind of
Speaker 1: like he's a stay the course kind of guy. And
Speaker 1: I think that's, you know, for now, it seems like
Speaker 1: what the Cowboys need. You know, there's always been turbulence
Speaker 1: associated coaching the Cowboys that other coaches don't face. Your
Speaker 1: owner goes public every week, you have more national TV games.
Speaker 1: Those are often game times are disrupted a lot of
Speaker 1: Sunday night, Monday night. It's a very you know, Jacksonville
Speaker 1: doesn't have to deal with that much. Dallas has to
Speaker 1: deal with a seven to eight times a year. That's
Speaker 1: why there's now a limit on how many times you
Speaker 1: can play in primetime. It's the cowboy rule. So the
Speaker 1: Cowboys don't have to have a night game. I know
Speaker 1: when the Giants had Eli manning and we're pretty good
Speaker 1: for multiple stretches. I knew somebody inside the Giants he's
Speaker 1: like the organization hates these night games. We all get
Speaker 1: home at two. They're disruptive all week. So Mike hasn't
Speaker 1: done himself verse through the years. You know, he's just
Speaker 1: you know, at the podium, he's pretty average. And I think,
Speaker 1: you know what, I think Mike deserves a little more respect.
Speaker 1: I guess that's my takeaway. Yeah, I think I think
Speaker 1: you're onto something. And where he'll ultimately get it is
Speaker 1: if he wins this game. Oh my next Sunday. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, I hear people say, and I even heard
Speaker 1: Troy say something to the effect of, you know, Dallas
Speaker 1: is only measured on Super Bowls. Well, yeah, because of
Speaker 1: course Troy won three of those things. It's been so long,
Speaker 1: and you and I talked about this before you go
Speaker 1: back to the nineteen ninety five season. They that's not
Speaker 1: how people think around here anymore. Cowboys win that game
Speaker 1: on the road, and it is winnable. That is a
Speaker 1: winnable game. Like I know, Brock Purty's undefeated, but Brock
Speaker 1: Purty still a seventh round draft pick. Who's I mean
Speaker 1: in his second playoff game. I mean that we can't
Speaker 1: just core and ate him and go like it acts like.
Speaker 1: I mean, is he surrounded by really good coaching and
Speaker 1: really good players. You bet he is. But the Cowboys
Speaker 1: have a guy with seven years experience twenty nine year
Speaker 1: old peak of his career, and the Cowboys have possibly
Speaker 1: one of the best schematic and one of the best
Speaker 1: defensive thinkers in the game on that side of the ball.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want somebody to take on a
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback in disguising, I mean, all you have to
Speaker 1: do is look at last night. Tom Brady was just
Speaker 1: like baffled. I mean, and we can blame it all whatever,
Speaker 1: but he blame it on the offix line. But something
Speaker 1: happened to cause him to just that that weird. I mean,
Speaker 1: think about it. Think of all the people calling that
Speaker 1: game last They were trying to give him an excuse.
Speaker 1: Was he wanting the receiver to come back? Was he
Speaker 1: trying to throw the ball out of the out of bounds?
Speaker 1: He threw some kind of crazy ball in the red zone,
Speaker 1: you know, and so I I think that's a huge
Speaker 1: advantage for the Cowboys. Still as much as I like
Speaker 1: Rock Purty, and by the way, I've watched him a
Speaker 1: ton because I watched a lot of Big twelve football,
Speaker 1: so I have a sort of a body of work
Speaker 1: to but I can't because I've watched him so much,
Speaker 1: I can't buy into They're just so good they're gonna
Speaker 1: kind of carry Brock with them. I think dan Quinn
Speaker 1: will have something for him in a big way on
Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon. The line is surprisingly low Niners minus three
Speaker 1: and a half. That tells me, dan Quinn, Brock Purty
Speaker 1: your theory. Vegas sees it that they think it's going
Speaker 1: to be lower scoring, so do I. Seattle's a bad
Speaker 1: defensive team. Dallas has some spectacular players. I still think
Speaker 1: they need another corner and that will be at some
Speaker 1: point exposed against Philadelphia or San Francisco. I think I
Speaker 1: think it has a twenty seven twenty field to it.
Speaker 1: What do you what do you think the game looks like?
Speaker 1: You know, with it being three and a half, I
Speaker 1: would lean toward betting the Cowboys getting those points. Um
Speaker 1: I saw it open. I thought about four and a
Speaker 1: half and I was really thinking, Okay, I would lean
Speaker 1: that way. I agree. Um, I think it's gonna be
Speaker 1: interesting because the Cowboys at times have been susceptible to
Speaker 1: the run. You know, they've they've struggled with the group.
Speaker 1: The thing the Cowboys have, it's they've got a versatile
Speaker 1: group on the line. Two guys that were inactive last night,
Speaker 1: Bohannah and Neville Gallimore, are big, huge plugger types. Last
Speaker 1: night they got Hankins in there, and so that was
Speaker 1: their big, huge guy. But the rest of the people
Speaker 1: they went with all thin, long pass rushers. Cowboys can
Speaker 1: go either way, and so I think what you'll see
Speaker 1: them do is really load up to stop that run game.
Speaker 1: I think the Asday thing about this, I think you
Speaker 1: maybe leaning the right way. I think it's a low
Speaker 1: storied game. I think it's rare that San Francisco finds
Speaker 1: somebody that will play as physical as they will. I
Speaker 1: don't normally think we think of the Cowboys like that.
Speaker 1: I've heard you over the years say finesse, speed, all
Speaker 1: those kinds of things. The Cowboys team that showed up
Speaker 1: last night, yeah, was incredibly physical. Yes, and the safeties
Speaker 1: were hitting like crazy. Vander esh was a good edition.
Speaker 1: He came back for Majory. He helps in the run
Speaker 1: against the run as well, and I like, I mean,
Speaker 1: that's where Purdy's gonna have to watch it because they're
Speaker 1: gonna use Parsons. Quinn loves to do what he did
Speaker 1: last night. Move him back off the line a little bit,
Speaker 1: sometimes get him outside, line him up, maybe in the
Speaker 1: middle standing. You never know where he's gonna be. And
Speaker 1: right now, he's the biggest defensive weapon in the NFL.
Speaker 1: He's there's just not there's not a game wrecker like him.
Speaker 1: There are people that may have more sex or may
Speaker 1: even put up bigger numbers, but there's no one. And
Speaker 1: they used to have somebody like that, DeMarcus ware. There's
Speaker 1: no one there. They spend more time worrying about. And
Speaker 1: that's a great thing when you have somebody like that,
Speaker 1: and it's great for those other players. DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorrence Armstrong.
Speaker 1: I mean, think about we we kind of beat up
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys for not being able to land Randy
Speaker 1: Gregory in the offseason. What did Randy Gregory do this
Speaker 1: year for Denver? Nothing? He was hurt most of the time,
Speaker 1: and the Cowboys ended up so your your point earlier,
Speaker 1: though it is the right one. It's a little scary
Speaker 1: at cornerback, Like it really comes down to um, you know,
Speaker 1: whether it be debot I you, I mean, you know
Speaker 1: how deep do they truly go? And you're Harrison of
Speaker 1: the receiving units cowboys, I will say, Gallup, who's not
Speaker 1: getting much separation, can make plays. So I mean, I
Speaker 1: do think. I do think he gives them something. He
Speaker 1: can beat people down the field. He's a straight line runner.
Speaker 1: I feel like CD can get the drops at times.
Speaker 1: I think he's a pretty average one a stupendous two.
Speaker 1: I think Schultz's outstanding, and they have a one two punch.
Speaker 1: I think their offensive line and you gotta credit McCarthy
Speaker 1: on this, it is much better post Thanksgiving. It is
Speaker 1: a better offensive line. That's what it feels like to me,
Speaker 1: it to you? Does it? Yeah? It's gonna be interesting
Speaker 1: because you know, they had to make some changes last night.
Speaker 1: Peters came out of that game and they kicked Pollard
Speaker 1: Smith out. He's been good out there, and they had
Speaker 1: to put McGovern out there. They had to put McGovern
Speaker 1: in at guard. I think that'll be fascinating to watch
Speaker 1: the other thing I would bring up is, and I've
Speaker 1: said this before yesterday's game, Pollard was going to be
Speaker 1: a huge key and it's like a real bell weather
Speaker 1: for this team is if he has seventy five or
Speaker 1: more rushing yards, they tend to perform so much better.
Speaker 1: And and what you have to watch in this game
Speaker 1: is what did what did Zeke end up for rush
Speaker 1: in this last game? It's like two point one. He's
Speaker 1: been doing that for several weeks now. Now short yard,
Speaker 1: it's still good. He still go get you a yard.
Speaker 1: But when you find yourself after a game and you
Speaker 1: look at the stats and Zeke has taken up twelve
Speaker 1: to fifteen of your carries, you've probably made some mistakes.
Speaker 1: And I think Kellen called a really good game. But
Speaker 1: each time you run Zeke, you're taking about a twenty
Speaker 1: five yard opportunity away from your offense. Because again, Zeke
Speaker 1: does some good things, he brings some really good leadership.
Speaker 1: But Pollard is your home run. And you heard him
Speaker 1: talking about it last night, and it's true. And plus
Speaker 1: if there's only a small hole, Powered is a tougher
Speaker 1: back than he's given credit for, so he's got great balance.
Speaker 1: We Powered I mean, you have to approach this game
Speaker 1: like this is our bell cow And but they'll treat
Speaker 1: Zeke like the ceremonial starter, which you better get. You
Speaker 1: better get pollered in there early. What is going on everybody?
Speaker 1: John Middlecoff here Three and Out podcast joined by Colin Coward,
Speaker 1: Rocket and Rolling. Hopefully everyone's having a good night Monday
Speaker 1: night football. The divisional round is set. But before we
Speaker 1: dive in me and Colin make sure you subscribe like
Speaker 1: the Volumes YouTube page. Make sure you subscribe to the
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Speaker 1: John John twenty dollars off. Very easy to do. Can't
Speaker 1: recommend enough game Time Do it right now? Okay, Colin.
Speaker 1: We now have what is it? Eight team set? We
Speaker 1: have the divisional round set. We had Monday night football,
Speaker 1: two big brands, a lot of pressure on the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: and you got to give the coaching staff and they'll start.
Speaker 1: I guess with Dak, who was you know, probably played
Speaker 1: one of his better games of his career. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: thought that was as good a performance as Dak's ever had.
Speaker 1: My rule has always been a good quarterback has a
Speaker 1: lousy week, they'll bounce back. These are pro athletes. You
Speaker 1: don't become a pro I mean, Dak's never been a
Speaker 1: pro athlete because he has a beautiful arm, because he's
Speaker 1: the twitchiest this, or the most gifted that. He's a
Speaker 1: very driven, aspirational guy. He works really really hard that
Speaker 1: his craft and doesn't need you know, a self motivated guy.
Speaker 1: And when you play really bad for the Cowboys or
Speaker 1: any big profile team, you almost always bounce back. So
Speaker 1: I like Dallas tonight. I thought Dak would play really well.
Speaker 1: I thought he had a drive. May have been at
Speaker 1: the end. I'm looking at my notes here, can't eleven
Speaker 1: straight complations. At one point I thought he kind of
Speaker 1: gave his body up a couple of times. Tonight felt
Speaker 1: like like Dak really understood it was big. Yeah, like
Speaker 1: the opposite of Kirk Cousins, who I felt even yesterday.
Speaker 1: You know, underneath throws, Dak was running out there, throll
Speaker 1: going head first, jumping into defenders. It was like Dak
Speaker 1: really understood what it meant for him, the team, the Cowboys,
Speaker 1: and I thought he was terrific. I really thought Dak
Speaker 1: was as good as I've seen him as a pro. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think sometimes him and Cousins get lumped in. You know,
Speaker 1: they're kind of that second tier guy. Statistics sometimes parallel
Speaker 1: each other. But when you saw tonight, they get Dak
Speaker 1: on the move. Cousins doesn't have that in the bag.
Speaker 1: I mean one of the reasons Dak. You know, he
Speaker 1: wasn't a great passer in college. It was athletic ability,
Speaker 1: and I think ever since the ankle injury, you get
Speaker 1: him on the move. I watched tonight thinking, you know
Speaker 1: this is that player is a problem for the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers. If he's gonna play at that level on
Speaker 1: the move, he's not. He's ever gonna be Peyton Manning
Speaker 1: and Tom Brady from the pocket. But if you can
Speaker 1: mix up the play action stuff, obviously the play action touchdown,
Speaker 1: he has the elements to his game that when you
Speaker 1: ask him to throw at forty plus times from the pocket,
Speaker 1: that's when he gets in trouble. Yeah, I think Dallas
Speaker 1: Dallas is an interesting matchup. They can put pressure on Purty.
Speaker 1: The weakness of the Niners tends to be their old line,
Speaker 1: especially the center right, so I think you can move
Speaker 1: Micah round DeMarcus Lawrence. I think they can create a
Speaker 1: little discomfort for the forty nine ers. You know Dallas. Now,
Speaker 1: Dallas tonight played virtually flawless, So let's expect Dallas to
Speaker 1: not play as well next week. I mean, that's kind
Speaker 1: of They're a highly emotional team. Many of their best
Speaker 1: players Trayvon dig Ceedee, Lamb, Micah Parsons are very young players.
Speaker 1: They tend to be emotional, so they're a little hot
Speaker 1: and cold. They'll probably pull back next week. I expect
Speaker 1: the Niners to win. But I will say this. I
Speaker 1: talked about this on my show today. Mike McCarthy took
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of the pr beating in the divorce
Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron three straight years losing at Lambeau,
Speaker 1: outplayed by an old Tom Goff and Garoppolo in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, Mike McCarthy with a nearly flawless game plan tonight.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying Mike McCarthy didn't shouldn't shoulder some of
Speaker 1: the blame with Aaron Rodgers, but Matt Lafleur hasn't solved
Speaker 1: kind of the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers, hasn't solved the
Speaker 1: playoff disappointment Aaron Rodgers. And here's McCarthy four and one
Speaker 1: with Cooper Rush, sixty five percent winner with Dak Prescott.
Speaker 1: We got to give Mike McCarthy a little respect like
Speaker 1: that was a hell of a performance tonight before we
Speaker 1: dive into a couple other things. Obviously, Tom I've been
Speaker 1: saying for a while he's a shell of himself, not
Speaker 1: from his inability to throw right Breeze couldn't throw, Ben
Speaker 1: couldn't throw, Peyton couldn't throw. At the end Tom could
Speaker 1: still throw. I mean, hell, right until the end of
Speaker 1: that game he was you can see the arm strength. Yes,
Speaker 1: he wants no part of being hit. I don't blame him.
Speaker 1: He's forty five years old. I bet you go down
Speaker 1: ski slopes you know, yesterday differently than you would have
Speaker 1: thirty years ago. Right, You just there's a risk factor
Speaker 1: at his age. Makes no sense. But he can't play
Speaker 1: quarterback at a high level if he's not willing to
Speaker 1: stay in there because he's never been able to move,
Speaker 1: and that was always kind of a point of differentiation
Speaker 1: for him. He would stay in there and throw the
Speaker 1: dart at the last second, right, and now he just won't.
Speaker 1: And let's face it, no matter any of the teams
Speaker 1: that have options that no team has the mid nineties
Speaker 1: Cowboys offensive line. So he's gonna get hit. That's part
Speaker 1: of the sport right now, because well, offensive lines aren't
Speaker 1: that great. So I mean, what's he gonna do. Miami
Speaker 1: feels like the fit to me because that's a distribution
Speaker 1: offense with a lot of good weapons. But I was
Speaker 1: texting a friend tonight and I said, you know, Tom
Speaker 1: needs to now cherry picked teams without holes. Offensively, he
Speaker 1: no longer elevates others, right, Whereas like when he went
Speaker 1: to Tampa, get me Tristan worse, get me Lenny, playoff
Speaker 1: Lenny bring Gronk, get me a bat. The reality with
Speaker 1: Tom brock Purty costs nothing for four years, He's more,
Speaker 1: He's in his prime. Tom's not, he's more Mobile's um
Speaker 1: now he's gaining playoff experience. Like this idea that San
Speaker 1: Francisco is going to make a move on him. They
Speaker 1: got Trey Lance brock Purty and they're not paying either
Speaker 1: one of them anything. If you want to keep this defense,
Speaker 1: if you want to keep both those linebackers, if you
Speaker 1: want to keep all those d linemen, you got to
Speaker 1: save somewhere. And you know, I think, I think to
Speaker 1: your point, Brady now no longer elevates. He needs protection.
Speaker 1: You can't have a bad right tackle with Tom. You
Speaker 1: can't look at their offense in the last three months.
Speaker 1: You have to have a run game, the Mahomes Burrow,
Speaker 1: Alan Herbert Um. I mean, if you go look at statistically,
Speaker 1: the Chargers don't do anything well and they took a
Speaker 1: twenty seven nothing lead in a playoff game on the road.
Speaker 1: Like so I think I think Miami looks like a
Speaker 1: good fit for Tom in terms of they kind of
Speaker 1: have offensively, they kind of have all the pieces, a
Speaker 1: lot of bubble screen guys. One over the top guy,
Speaker 1: tight end that one. And it's the San Francisco system. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and San Francisco needs a quarterback that's upright and healthy.
Speaker 1: Seventeen eighteen weeks a year. I gotta quote for you
Speaker 1: because I know you love the wiring of the quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: I saw Kittle talk to Peter King and on Purdy
Speaker 1: and he said failure is a big part of learning
Speaker 1: to play quarterback in the NFL. And Brock had success
Speaker 1: and failure in college, so nothing is really unknown to him.
Speaker 1: Since he's got here, he understands. And you see some
Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks that get to the NFL and have
Speaker 1: a lot of success. Patrick Mahomes failed a lot in college,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen up and down roller coaster in college. Joe
Speaker 1: Burrow had to leave a college. Right. These guys aren't
Speaker 1: just going to Alabama Ohio State and winning it all
Speaker 1: and just getting the job from the jump, go through
Speaker 1: ups and downs. Because I what he's obviously is unprecedented,
Speaker 1: But when you really dive in and look beside his size,
Speaker 1: all big twelve guy, first team twice, second team or
Speaker 1: is sophomore year, so a lot of success and it
Speaker 1: didn't all go perfect. Had a great year and then
Speaker 1: a senior year didn't go as well. So mentally you
Speaker 1: watch him talk, you go, god, this guy kind of
Speaker 1: feels like he talks like a quarterback, like he's not
Speaker 1: it's not too big for him. Well, the thing I
Speaker 1: really noticed John the not two things that jump out,
Speaker 1: and this is first of all, tells you how good
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan is hit the whole fifth round, Jennings sixth round,
Speaker 1: Elijah Mitchell sixth round, pretty seventh round. Name another offense
Speaker 1: in the league that has this many late round like
Speaker 1: highly productive players. Kyle's brilliant. That's first thing this system
Speaker 1: can take guy. Now Kittle would have starred anywhere. I
Speaker 1: don't think the old guys would. The second thing is
Speaker 1: Matt Campbell's a very good football coach at Iowa State.
Speaker 1: If Harball left, he would be a finalist for Michigan.
Speaker 1: They were very good with Purdy he left, They were
Speaker 1: awful this year a timeout, so they were recruiting on
Speaker 1: the success with Purdy. The recruiting has gone up. Campbell's coach.
Speaker 1: The Big twelve was not very good, and I always
Speaker 1: stay it was awful. Maybe Brock Purdy is Romo or
Speaker 1: Kurt Warner. He was just either under scouted or overlooked
Speaker 1: that Like when I watched him, the one thing that
Speaker 1: jumps out to me he is his quick decision making
Speaker 1: is exceptional. Like he dirted that ball yesterday when the
Speaker 1: play blew up and he just dirted it. He you know,
Speaker 1: he's very good at like moving out of the pocket
Speaker 1: and re establishing his feet and his shoulders, like he's
Speaker 1: just mechanically. When I read the scouting on him, and
Speaker 1: you're a former NFL scout, it was he was sloppy
Speaker 1: and erratic. I think some of it is Kyle's coach,
Speaker 1: some of it out of him. Yeah, he looks really
Speaker 1: his feet are good. His decision making, you know, he
Speaker 1: straightens himself out. He goes from sideways quick to the feet.
Speaker 1: Some of this is Kyle. We gotta give Kyle a
Speaker 1: lot of credit. Yeah, I mean, and I think he
Speaker 1: has some natural instincts and he's a much better athlete.
Speaker 1: You know, his ten time, the ten yard split in
Speaker 1: the forty is the same as Christian McCaffrey's and Pete
Speaker 1: said after the game, he said, you know, I didn't
Speaker 1: realize he was this mobile. I looked over there. I
Speaker 1: thought it was fran Tarkington runner around. I mean they couldn't.
Speaker 1: I mean they were chasing them all. Now, the Cowboys
Speaker 1: Micah probably does catch him, so he's got to be
Speaker 1: but he has a very good understanding of his speed
Speaker 1: relative to the guy chasing him. And that's something that
Speaker 1: you can only learn. You know, Trey Lance, for an athlete,
Speaker 1: didn't play very fast, and in fairness to him, how
Speaker 1: woody he played one season at a small school. Perties
Speaker 1: used to see an NFL guy's chase him. That's a
Speaker 1: really good point. I you know, I'm gonna write that down.
Speaker 1: That's a very good point. I heard the same thing
Speaker 1: about Trey Lance, that he's a power runner, more cam
Speaker 1: than Lamar, and that Pretty is a little bit more
Speaker 1: twitchy than try. Pray's big, strong power arm. He's actually
Speaker 1: kind of the opposite of Pretty. Where Brock is accurate twitchy,
Speaker 1: um quick, Pray is a power arm. His football his
Speaker 1: football smarts, I mean, to have this offense down like
Speaker 1: he does is in Saint Matt Ryan said it took
Speaker 1: him a year to figure it out. This guy's in
Speaker 1: his rookie season. It's it's it's pretty crazy to watch last,
Speaker 1: but not least, the day ball Daniel Jones. What he's
Speaker 1: done with this quarterback, to me, has a lot of
Speaker 1: similarities what Jim Harbaught did in twenty eleven with Alex Smith.
Speaker 1: You know a high pick who's probably not as talented
Speaker 1: as the elite guys, but clearly has a lot going
Speaker 1: for him. You know, Duke guy, Utah guy, smart, big
Speaker 1: can move what he's got going on with Daniel Jones. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Minnesota's defense sucks, but just throughout this season, it's spend
Speaker 1: He's worth his weight in gold to the Giants immediately.
Speaker 1: Just doing that. I think the Alex Smith comps really smart.
Speaker 1: I think Daniel Jones is a little bit better armed too.
Speaker 1: If you watch what they did do him so over
Speaker 1: the first let's say, until Thanksgiving, they pulled down the mistakes.
Speaker 1: They slightly elevated his completion percentage. This is what he
Speaker 1: did with Josh Allen. They eliminate the mistakes, They give
Speaker 1: him some easy lay up throws, take some risk out
Speaker 1: of it. With Daniel now Daniel's not Josh Allen athletically,
Speaker 1: but what they did was, I mean, Daniel led the
Speaker 1: NFL like in quarterback fumbles. The first couple of years,
Speaker 1: he was a mess. No, he was turning the ball over.
Speaker 1: Not reduced that, and then a little more accurate. And
Speaker 1: then after Thanksgiving a few weeks after it, then they
Speaker 1: kind of let him loose. Okay, we're gonna go from
Speaker 1: twenty four to twenty eight. They let him loose, and
Speaker 1: they did it against the Vikings the first game. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Dabel looks at the film and says, this defense, I
Speaker 1: can let him lose. And they did it again. So
Speaker 1: this is what worries me about Daniel. He's really his
Speaker 1: two best games of the year arguably were against the Vikings.
Speaker 1: He had a good game against the Lions. But Carolina
Speaker 1: ate him up, Dallas ate him up twice, Philadelphia ate
Speaker 1: him up once, ate him up once. I think Daniel's limited.
Speaker 1: I think we're going crazy right now. I think what
Speaker 1: you do if you're the Giants, they got to get
Speaker 1: a tight end, a receiver, probably a corner. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be I don't think it's crazy. This sounds nuts. Fifth
Speaker 1: sixth round draft another quarterback, just I think or your
Speaker 1: franchise tag him John that's more than you want to
Speaker 1: pay him. But they don't have a ton of huge contracts, right,
Speaker 1: so say Quon Dexter Lawrence. But they don't have a
Speaker 1: lot of big contracts. We're gonna rebuild this offensive line.
Speaker 1: Both their tackles now, Evan Neil and Thomas are you know, cheap.
Speaker 1: They're gonna They're gonna draft receivers and tight ends. So
Speaker 1: this offense outside of Barkley is not very expensive. And
Speaker 1: he but he's a free agent, and it's hard. What
Speaker 1: do you do with running backs, you know, like giving
Speaker 1: them long term contracts. But dammy, I think you have
Speaker 1: to keep him because of Daniel's little I think you
Speaker 1: have to. All right, I had a winning week. I
Speaker 1: went three and two thanks to the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys.
Speaker 1: Chad Milman's CCO Action Network All odds provided by Fan
Speaker 1: Duel I said last week, I will not be mocked
Speaker 1: or ridiculed. I'd loved Dallas. I think sometimes you have
Speaker 1: to be honest about what a team is. Tampa was
Speaker 1: eight nine sort of what they are, and it was unveiled.
Speaker 1: So this week we've got four games, and I feel
Speaker 1: there's always whenever you go into these big games, I
Speaker 1: try to simplify everything. What are these teams at this
Speaker 1: point and what are they not? So one of my
Speaker 1: I don't like big favorites, you know this chat, But
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus eight and a half is my play.
Speaker 1: Andy reidoff a bye is the greatest NFL coach ever.
Speaker 1: They met in the first matchup, and as Greg Kosell
Speaker 1: pointed out to me, there are some Jacksonville personnel disadvantages
Speaker 1: on defense here they probably won't be able to overcome.
Speaker 1: They're still in a rebuild. I argue they're a year
Speaker 1: ahead of schedule. Jacksonville's off their biggest franchise winning years.
Speaker 1: This is still a quarterback with less than you know,
Speaker 1: forty starts. This is a lot to ask for the Jags.
Speaker 1: I like the Chiefs by ten or more. Sharper square.
Speaker 1: So it's square, but not like egregiously square. It's square
Speaker 1: because there is so much data for trends, so much
Speaker 1: analysis broadly in this situation for number one seeds underperforming
Speaker 1: against the market, and for the Chiefs specifically underperforming against
Speaker 1: the market when they are really big favorites. So That's
Speaker 1: why what's really interesting, and we're going to get through this.
Speaker 1: With all the games today, there are very specific play
Speaker 1: the trends sides and play the matchup sides, and so
Speaker 1: with this one, the Wise guys are playing the trends. Agreed.
Speaker 1: Jackonsville's past defense is not very good, but the Chiefs
Speaker 1: are not nearly as explosive as they were with Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: They tend to play ball control when they get a lead.
Speaker 1: And ball control for the Chiefs doesn't mean they're just
Speaker 1: running it fifty times. It means shorter passes, it means
Speaker 1: a little bit more conservative on the play calling, not
Speaker 1: the sort of sling it like Patrick Mahomes normally does.
Speaker 1: So I think that you're starting to see the Wise
Speaker 1: guys really like the Jaguars. Here. A couple other trends
Speaker 1: that you should think about is that in the past
Speaker 1: twenty years, number one seeds are thirteen twenty five and
Speaker 1: one against the spread in this round, and when they're
Speaker 1: favored by less than ten points, they're eight twenty two
Speaker 1: and one. So that hits the button for two number
Speaker 1: one seeds this weekend. All right, Hey, listen, Miami kept
Speaker 1: it close with Buffalo with Skyler Thompson. So that is
Speaker 1: that was a little bit of a last two times
Speaker 1: Miami played them, I thought Mike McDaniel out Coach McDermott.
Speaker 1: Get to that in a second. So Giants plus seven
Speaker 1: and a half at Philly is the side for me.
Speaker 1: I worry about Jalen Hurts one hundred percent held. I
Speaker 1: worry of some of its inactivity. I worry about a
Speaker 1: team that's become increasingly injured and turnover prone in the
Speaker 1: last two months of the season. The Giants have a
Speaker 1: way they have to play, but with Daniel Jones now
Speaker 1: running the football more, they're a little better third down team.
Speaker 1: They can play keep away a little better. Now that said,
Speaker 1: Minnesota's awful and Daniel jones two best games were against
Speaker 1: the Vikings, so let's slow down. I like Philly to win,
Speaker 1: but in a division rivalry game, Philadelphia was not playing
Speaker 1: great at the end of the year. I think the
Speaker 1: buye does them no favors here. I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the seven and a half sharper square colin. I normally
Speaker 1: say when I don't have a consensus that it is
Speaker 1: completely split. What I will say this time is that
Speaker 1: there has been really smart money at big, big wagers
Speaker 1: on the Eagles and really really smart money at big
Speaker 1: big wagers on the Giants. And this is where covering
Speaker 1: sports betting gets the most fascinating. Games like these. We
Speaker 1: just talked about trends versus matchups. We talked about public often,
Speaker 1: we talk about being on the public side, fading the
Speaker 1: public at being against the public. Right now, the Giants
Speaker 1: are a very very public team. They did exactly what
Speaker 1: you just said against the Eagles. They had ten or
Speaker 1: eleven wins in one score games. They were a covering machine.
Speaker 1: The public is down on the Eagles right now. They
Speaker 1: are not even the favorite to win the Super Bowl
Speaker 1: from the NFC, that is the brock Purty led Niners.
Speaker 1: So what you're doing if you like the Eagles, you're
Speaker 1: actually fading the public right now because the Giants are
Speaker 1: a public dog. And where this gets really really interesting,
Speaker 1: really interesting. You are seeing massive amounts of money and
Speaker 1: massive amounts of tickets coming in on the Giants. And
Speaker 1: this line has been sitting at seven and a half
Speaker 1: since Monday, so we're now with Thursday. You get a
Speaker 1: massive amount of money on one side, and bookmakers usually
Speaker 1: move the line. They haven't moved the line because they're
Speaker 1: also getting significant wise guy play on the Eagles. I
Speaker 1: will tell you, as we often talk about the wise
Speaker 1: guy calls that we get for the favorites podcast Call
Speaker 1: of Sharp Calls completely split on this, but we do
Speaker 1: go ahead and decide to make taking the Eagles at
Speaker 1: seven and a half are big balls better the week
Speaker 1: because we like the matchup for the Eagles on the
Speaker 1: field better. We think they're a better team. Jalen Hurt
Speaker 1: Jordan Davis on the field at the same time, have
Speaker 1: not lost once this year. If we did not have
Speaker 1: the public situation, if the Eagles hadn't been fading at
Speaker 1: the end of the year when Jalen Hurts was hurt,
Speaker 1: it'd probably be ten point favorites. It's a tough one, though, Colin.
Speaker 1: The world is divided. This is splitting the world. This
Speaker 1: and the Death Sailing are splitting the world in two Okay,
Speaker 1: this one. I have no idea. I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the Bengals up to five and a half foun duel
Speaker 1: odds if they I've said this today on the show,
Speaker 1: and I'll get pushed back. I'm sir sure on social media.
Speaker 1: If the on line was healthy for Cincinnati. I think
Speaker 1: they'd blow out Buffalo. I think they're a significantly better
Speaker 1: situational team. I think they're more balanced offensively. They're not
Speaker 1: actually as beholden to Joe Burrow as the Bill's offense
Speaker 1: is now to Josh Allen. Greg ko Sell said it today.
Speaker 1: Take out Allen and Stefon Diggs. Buffalo's offense personnel is
Speaker 1: just not that talented, and you see it on film.
Speaker 1: Buffalo is mistake prone. But they played very poorly against Miami.
Speaker 1: Sean Payton told me the best weeks to be a
Speaker 1: coach when you'll win and play like shit because you
Speaker 1: can ride those players all week. I think Buffalo is
Speaker 1: gonna play a lot better. Bengals are missing three offensive linemen.
Speaker 1: The five and a half is a lot to give Burrow,
Speaker 1: who's an excellent road quarterback, So I probably pay play
Speaker 1: Cincinnati with no conviction at all. I think Buffalo rebounds
Speaker 1: and plays well. I'll take the Bengals and the point
Speaker 1: sharper square. So flip around everything you just said and
Speaker 1: don't be a square and take the Bills. Because if
Speaker 1: to say that, if the Bengals were not missing three
Speaker 1: offensive linemen, would be like saying if I had scored
Speaker 1: a hundred points in a game in Hershey, Pennsylvania, I'd
Speaker 1: be an NBA legend. That's how sort of fantastical that
Speaker 1: kind of if. Then statement is okay, they don't have
Speaker 1: the three linemen, and we saw what happened to the
Speaker 1: Bengals when they were missing fields. The Ravens team that
Speaker 1: not even downfield. Joe Burrow can't even drop back like this,
Speaker 1: second he drops back, someone is in his lap. And
Speaker 1: the Ravens were doing that with a lot of heavy,
Speaker 1: heavy blitzing and pass rushing. The Bills have a very
Speaker 1: deep defensive line. They're a top ten pressure rate defensive
Speaker 1: line without blitzing. And you make the points about playing badly, right,
Speaker 1: So let's look at two teams that did not play
Speaker 1: well in the opening round of the playoffs that were
Speaker 1: playing against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo Bills played Skylar Thompson. They
Speaker 1: played terrible, They had bad, really bad breaks. They still
Speaker 1: kind of won that game handily, right, The score was
Speaker 1: closer than it appeared in the fourth quarter. The Bengals
Speaker 1: played a backup quarterback, they gained two hundred and thirty
Speaker 1: four yards on offense, and they won the game. On
Speaker 1: a lucky ninety eight yard fumble recovery by a defensive linement,
Speaker 1: not because their offense did anything special and Joe Burrow
Speaker 1: did anything special. So this game opened at six and
Speaker 1: a half, it got bet down to three and a half,
Speaker 1: it hit three and a half, and the wise guy
Speaker 1: started pummeling it. Three and a half, four, four and
Speaker 1: a half, five, five and a half. I would tell
Speaker 1: anybody bet the Bills at five and a half. If
Speaker 1: he gets to six, you walk away. Maybe you take
Speaker 1: a piece of the Bengals. But when you get from
Speaker 1: say four and a half to five and a half,
Speaker 1: you're kind of in these dead numbers, right. The games
Speaker 1: really don't land. It's either going to land on six
Speaker 1: or it might land on four. So I say you
Speaker 1: take you take the five and a half with the Bills.
Speaker 1: I hate all my picks. I hope I convinced you
Speaker 1: of that. I really do this one. So you can't
Speaker 1: the offensive line thing, you cannot. You cannot discount that
Speaker 1: it's massive well, and also a huge component of burrows
Speaker 1: greatness is the sneaky deep ball. He's deadly accurate fifteen
Speaker 1: yards in yet he's got a tony romo. He loves
Speaker 1: to let it rip sometimes in a double coverage and
Speaker 1: he's really successful. You just took that out. They become
Speaker 1: much easier to defend, or a nibble team because when
Speaker 1: you're missing three offensive lineman, the deep, the vertical passes out,
Speaker 1: so they become a very safe offense. I don't think
Speaker 1: you can go to Buffalo, Okay, So from time to
Speaker 1: time I admit this. I actually admitted a lot is
Speaker 1: that my wife's an artist and so she sees things
Speaker 1: I don't. And sometimes I'll see a number and go, well,
Speaker 1: somebody knows something I don't. I guess the numbers before
Speaker 1: they come out, and if there's a big variance and
Speaker 1: it's about once a week or once every other week,
Speaker 1: I'm like, wow, that's a big variance. Vegas knows something
Speaker 1: I don't know. So the Cowboys have a forty eight
Speaker 1: hour minimum preparation deficit. They didn't get home until two
Speaker 1: to three in the morning on Tuesday. The Niners game
Speaker 1: was over Saturday afternoon. Also short week. Facing now the
Speaker 1: most physical team in the league. It's not like it's
Speaker 1: a finesse team. Like I talked to Gerald McCoy about
Speaker 1: this and he said, forget the prep time. Is that
Speaker 1: body going to be ready for San Francisco for three hours?
Speaker 1: They are just it is sumo wrestling. It is just
Speaker 1: contact and bounding. And my guest on the number was
Speaker 1: five and a half and it came in at three
Speaker 1: and a half. I thought I thought at five and
Speaker 1: a half it was safe at home. Two day prep advantage.
Speaker 1: Smartest offensive coach in a game in which Seattle is
Speaker 1: not physical. They've tossed him around. So it tells me
Speaker 1: the game's going to be closer. Vegas as smarter than
Speaker 1: I am, so I'd take the Cowboys and the points.
Speaker 1: And I hate it. Sharper square, you are. This is
Speaker 1: the sharpest thing you've ever said as a as a
Speaker 1: sports analyst talking about betting. You've said many many other
Speaker 1: sharp things in the context of your life, but in
Speaker 1: this particular context, this is the sharpest thing you've ever said.
Speaker 1: It's there. It's fishy, man. The game actually opened at
Speaker 1: four and a half, got that down to four, got
Speaker 1: bet down to three and a half. Somebody took a
Speaker 1: little bit of money on the Niners at three and
Speaker 1: a half. But this is a pros Joe's game. Like,
Speaker 1: majority of the tickets on the Niners majority on the
Speaker 1: money on the Cowboys right now, And there's a really
Speaker 1: interesting narrative taking place in the betting world. And this
Speaker 1: is why I love covering the betting world because and
Speaker 1: why I always have there is a conversation, a shadow
Speaker 1: conversation happening amongst millions and millions of betters that influences
Speaker 1: billions of dollars in markets right But it's an entirely
Speaker 1: different narrative than what is happening in sort of the
Speaker 1: general sports debate space when people are analyzing these games.
Speaker 1: The narrative right now is that if you look back,
Speaker 1: who have the Niners played, and when they have played
Speaker 1: those teams, has their defense been not as good as
Speaker 1: we thought? And so Brock Purdy's been winning all of
Speaker 1: these games against quarterbacks who a lot of quarterbacks might
Speaker 1: be able to beat if they have Kyle Shanahan as
Speaker 1: their play caller and their scheme designer. And meanwhile, the
Speaker 1: defense terrible first half against Geno Smith, terrible second half
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. You're starting to see a lot of cracks.
Speaker 1: That is a narrative that has taken place in the
Speaker 1: betting community right now with the Niners defense, and so
Speaker 1: I have been shocked to hear about the Cowboy love
Speaker 1: this week, because I mean especially me. I was so
Speaker 1: anti Cowboys last week, sadly, but this week the wise
Speaker 1: guys are on the Cowboys. It was a stunner for me.
Speaker 1: I hate all my picks. I've never said that. I
Speaker 1: hate everything every week at this time of year, Colin,
Speaker 1: there's nothing to love. You're grinding it out, You're hanging
Speaker 1: on by figuringails, just hoping, dear God, can we get
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. I mean, I thought the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: I just could be Chiefs was so sharp. I was
Speaker 1: going to call my pick cheddar. It was so good,
Speaker 1: And now I wouldn't better mettle on that thing. So
Speaker 1: what's interesting about that is, I would say of the
Speaker 1: of the sharp plays, that's the one that I think
Speaker 1: people are most skeptical about. What is starting to get
Speaker 1: some plays the under in that game Andy Reid at
Speaker 1: Arrowhead in his career, the unders are about eight percent
Speaker 1: when he is a seven point favorite or more. That
Speaker 1: climbs to seventy percent. So the unders at fifty three
Speaker 1: could go down to fifty two and a half. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of conversation about that. But that kind
Speaker 1: of game script. If it's an under plays to the
Speaker 1: strength of Jacksonville, let's try keeping it close. I mean
Speaker 1: it's hard to give up eight and a half the score.
Speaker 1: If they toted up at fifty two, that's a lot
Speaker 1: of points. Yeah, it's a lot of points. It's a
Speaker 1: lot of points. Betting is hard. I hit. Everybody can
Speaker 1: do it. Listen to this Millman. Fifty five percent in
Speaker 1: the year, so my blazing five is done. So now
Speaker 1: I only have four games, so yep, so fifty five
Speaker 1: percent on the year, fifty five and a half percent.
Speaker 1: Always I have always said fifty six is my goal,
Speaker 1: fifty six fifty six and a half, because you could
Speaker 1: be a pro better at fifty six. I am not,
Speaker 1: but I feel good. Last year was my worst year.
Speaker 1: It was the COVID year. I couldn't figure. I had
Speaker 1: no rhythm all year. So I ended up last two
Speaker 1: weeks three in two, fifty five and a half. I
Speaker 1: like that. Like it. If you could grind out three
Speaker 1: in two every single week, yeah, you're professional better. That's
Speaker 1: that's the goal. Right when we did the you know Colin,
Speaker 1: when Simon Hunter and I would go through our five
Speaker 1: best picks every week, on the favorite podcast Our Goal
Speaker 1: every week three and two, three and two, three and two,
Speaker 1: three and two, Because look at that, you go three
Speaker 1: and two over eighteen weeks. You end the year nearly
Speaker 1: twenty games over five hundred. If you're like, who's going
Speaker 1: to walk away saying I just went twenty games over
Speaker 1: five hundred betting NFL and if you're betting, the same
Speaker 1: number of dollars, and dollars equates to units. Whatever you
Speaker 1: uni size. For you, a unit size might be a
Speaker 1: million dollars a game. For me, it's like, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe ten bucks a game, but a unit size, I'm
Speaker 1: up twenty units at the end of the year. That's fantastic.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I always look at a hundred bucks a
Speaker 1: game because if I win it, I take I take
Speaker 1: the little girl out for a snappy to key, a
Speaker 1: shot or two. Yeah, and some Mexican food. Yeah, leave
Speaker 1: a tip. That's how I look at it. Free dinner
Speaker 1: with my beautiful redhead, my smart, beautiful, talented, red headed wife.
Speaker 1: That's the way to go. That's totally the way to go.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Ravens for one second,
Speaker 1: because you were on him, I was on them. That
Speaker 1: was a crazy game last week because it was six
Speaker 1: and a half, then seven, seven and a half, eight
Speaker 1: and a half. It was a sweat. Man, they should
Speaker 1: have won that game, oh, because it's probably I think
Speaker 1: fans sometimes understand this, but there argue there was a
Speaker 1: fourteen point play, yeah in that game, and I think
Speaker 1: about that one play, fourteen point swing on the sneak,
Speaker 1: and so when we want now, usually guys complain about
Speaker 1: that when they lose. So I won that bet and
Speaker 1: lost a fourteen point swing. Yeah, so you know it's
Speaker 1: the right side when you lose the two touchdown swing.
Speaker 1: And I I felt to the very end, I'm like
Speaker 1: I knew I was on the right side. Yes, it
Speaker 1: was funny. When the Chargers led big at half. My
Speaker 1: takeaway was this is the Chargers. They're going to get
Speaker 1: with a defensive coach squirrely in the second half. And
Speaker 1: I was sitting with a buddy and I said, I
Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna win. I think the Chargers will.
Speaker 1: I said, you watched this thing with three minutes to go.
Speaker 1: He was a Charger fan. I said you better watch this.
Speaker 1: I said, this thing's gonna get because you know they
Speaker 1: want to get on that flight and go home. You
Speaker 1: do not want to be in a losing flight. They're
Speaker 1: gonna take no big chances. And by the way, Jacksonville
Speaker 1: is pretty good coming from behind. They really are. If
Speaker 1: they throw nine straight times with Trevor and Doug Peterson,
Speaker 1: they're not bad at that. That's kind of a comfort
Speaker 1: level to them. Look, we talked about this in the podcast.
Speaker 1: We liked the Jags, and we liked the Jags because
Speaker 1: of the coaching mismatch, and that's what it came down to.
Speaker 1: We said specifically, I will not bet on Brandon Staley
Speaker 1: as a favorite on the road against Doug Peterson. People
Speaker 1: will try to categorize them because they both are risk
Speaker 1: taking coaches. Doug Peterson is risks taking in a very
Speaker 1: strategic way. Brandon Staley is okay with his offensive coordinator
Speaker 1: throwing the ball up twenty seven nothing in the second half.
Speaker 1: That's not risk taking. That's just bad decision making completely.
Speaker 1: And I will say one more thing, one more thing
Speaker 1: to back up the Cincinnati play. You know, we will
Speaker 1: do these luck rankings every week right where we're aggregating
Speaker 1: all this different data and it basically says this is
Speaker 1: what should have happened the game, and it predicts regression
Speaker 1: the following week. It tells you who's overvalued who's undervalued.
Speaker 1: In a game last week, the luckiest team in the
Speaker 1: league Cincinnati Bengals. If you played that game with the
Speaker 1: plays that and they happened as they were expected to happen,
Speaker 1: meaning there's not a fumble recovery for ninety eight yards,
Speaker 1: Baltimore is expected to win that game. Twenty two fourteen.
Speaker 1: I don't tell you we're on the Bills. It's the
Speaker 1: last word. I think. Yeah, I think Bills and Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I can live with Giants. I feel like crap Chiefs
Speaker 1: is ridiculous. Now, like I'm gonna bet the Eagles and
Speaker 1: it makes me sick to my stomach. I've bet the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: I'm sick to my stomach. I bet the Jaguars. I'm
Speaker 1: sick to my stomach. The only one I feel good
Speaker 1: about it is the Bills. So you know what that means.
Speaker 1: Bills are the only ones going to lose the volume.
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