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Speaker 1: The volume. It's the Colin Coward Podcast presented by Fan Duel.

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Speaker 1: It's NFL playoff time. No better place to get in

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Speaker 1: Colin and download the Fan Duel app today. Fan Duel

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Speaker 1: now live in Ohio. This is prime Cuts. The best

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Speaker 1: of the Colin Coward Podcast. Great great stuff this week.

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Speaker 1: Matt Moseley really fantastic giving us insight behind the rope

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Speaker 1: on Mike McCarthy that big win over the Bucks, plus

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Speaker 1: the best parts of my converse sation with my buddy

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Speaker 1: John Middlecoff, former NFL Scout three and out podcast on

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Speaker 1: the win by the Niners Chad Millman as well are

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Speaker 1: divisional round bets. But first my top takes of the week,

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Speaker 1: So I thought this was interesting. In my career, I've

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Speaker 1: tried to never back management into a corner, but there

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Speaker 1: have been as I have gained popularity, concessions companies have

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Speaker 1: been willing to make if I want certain time off

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Speaker 1: or a certain number of people on a staff. And

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Speaker 1: the more popular I've become, generally in any business, the

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Speaker 1: more leverage you have, and you know, companies will give

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Speaker 1: me certain things. I don't ask for a ton. I'm

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Speaker 1: not real high maintenance on this stuff. And it's understood

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Speaker 1: in a lot of entertainment businesses. And let's be honest,

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Speaker 1: I'm not analogous to Tom Cruise, but Top Gun makes

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Speaker 1: a billion four. There's concessions made Lebron James, Tom Brady.

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Speaker 1: They're concessions made. But in order to get those, in

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Speaker 1: any industry, you've got to deliver on the other end.

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Speaker 1: This is what's interesting. So Aaron Rodgers wants concessions by

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Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. He listed five offensive players, only

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Speaker 1: one his elite that he wants the Packers to bring

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Speaker 1: back if he'll return. Alanzar, Randall Cobb, Mercedes Lewis, Robert

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Speaker 1: Tyne in the tight end are not dynamic players. They're

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Speaker 1: unrestricted free agents. So the packers will have to pay

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Speaker 1: more than their worth to retain them. So the takeaway

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Speaker 1: as well, you get Aaron Rodgers. So I went back

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Speaker 1: with my staff and I said, what is the payoff?

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Speaker 1: For Aaron. Let's go to Aaron Rodgers last ten what

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Speaker 1: we would call big games, and we tried to as

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Speaker 1: a staff be very fair. He had five this year.

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Speaker 1: The play in game with the Lions, Christmas Day at Miami,

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Speaker 1: that Philadelphia game that was a standalone game, Cowboy game

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Speaker 1: at Lambeau, and I think it was a Sunday night

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Speaker 1: game against the Buffalo Bills. Those were the five big games. Now,

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Speaker 1: he also lost to the Vikings in the opener. You

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Speaker 1: could say the season openers a big game, but I

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Speaker 1: don't really count that as a big game. That would

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Speaker 1: benefit my argument, but I didn't do that. So in

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Speaker 1: those games he had two wins and three losses. Then

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Speaker 1: we went the previous year and we counted the big

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Speaker 1: games as the Niner game that he won during the

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Speaker 1: regular season and played very well, the Division round Niners

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Speaker 1: game he lost, and there was a Rams game Week

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Speaker 1: twelve that was build as the big game on TV

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Speaker 1: for Fox that he eventually won. We went to the

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Speaker 1: previous year and the two games that felt big were

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Speaker 1: the NFC Championship and that game against Brady down in

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Speaker 1: Tampa was the first time they'd met. Brady is a

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Speaker 1: Buck and so we went and we build those as

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Speaker 1: the ten biggest games, eight regular season, two playoff games,

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Speaker 1: and the play in game for Detroit we think classifies.

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Speaker 1: So Aaron wants all sorts of concessions. He wants five,

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Speaker 1: four of which are mediocre offensive players to return. So

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Speaker 1: what am I getting for that? Tom Cruise concessions. Top

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Speaker 1: gun makes one point four billion lebron for years. Concessions

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Speaker 1: end up in the finals. Miami made a lot of concessions,

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Speaker 1: got to the finals four straight years. So Aaron wants

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Speaker 1: these concessions. Let's go to his last three years what

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Speaker 1: we classify as the ten big games, and here's what

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Speaker 1: you get. He's four and six, sixteen touchdowns, seven picks,

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Speaker 1: averages two hundred thirty yards. Those are Matt Ryan numbers.

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Speaker 1: Those aren't close to Mahomes, Alan Burrow, Herbert. They're not close.

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Speaker 1: They're not close to the last five good games for

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence. Aaron wants these concessions. He's not delivering championship

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Speaker 1: level football. One of the reasons he's not as committed

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Speaker 1: in the off season. Other reasons he's not willing to

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Speaker 1: play with new teammates work out with them in the

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Speaker 1: off season. But we thought this was incredibly fair. We

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Speaker 1: went back as his staff and picked the ten big games.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking not one o'clock windows. Mostly, we're talking against

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Speaker 1: Brady Niners, playoffs Christmas Miami, by the way, trail big

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Speaker 1: in that until TWA started throwing the picks two who

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Speaker 1: had a concussion late in the first half. So if

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Speaker 1: you're gonna ask for concessions, you gotta deliver ratings, box

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Speaker 1: office finals appearances. Aaron no longer is four and six,

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Speaker 1: last ten games sixteen t seven picks two hundred thirty

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Speaker 1: yards a game. That's not close to the top six

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks in this league. So I saw where the Chargers

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Speaker 1: decided to keep Brandon s Daily and instead fire their

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator and their passing game coordinator. I rolled my

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Speaker 1: eyes at it because seven of the eight remaining head

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Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL playoffs, seven of eight are offensive coaches.

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Speaker 1: Last year, all seven NFC teams that made the playoffs

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Speaker 1: had offensive coaches. Folks, It's not an offensive coordinator issue

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Speaker 1: for the Chargers. It's a defensive head coach issue. If

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Speaker 1: you go look at the Chargers first and second half splits,

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Speaker 1: they were a terrible second half team. Offensively and defensively.

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Speaker 1: What does that tell you? It tells you they have

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Speaker 1: a young coach who is struggling once off the script,

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Speaker 1: game time decisions, situational play calling. They're a bad second

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Speaker 1: half offense. How they have Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams,

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Speaker 1: often Eckler, above average offensive line. I went and looked

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Speaker 1: at the second half offensive numbers for the Chargers. Their

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Speaker 1: bottom six in the league. The other five teams surrounding

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Speaker 1: them are all anemic at quarterback. Justin Herbert is the

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Speaker 1: only top ten quarterback in the league that is in

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Speaker 1: the bottom of second half offensive statistics. That's not your

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator, that's your coach. The only defensive coach left

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs is Sean McDermott. He can't figure out

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Speaker 1: the Bill's old line for five years. Their run game

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Speaker 1: is not substantial outside of Josh Allen, and Allen has

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Speaker 1: regressed as a quarterback since Brian dave All left. It's

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Speaker 1: a defensive organization and culture, I mean the Chargers. Sometimes

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Speaker 1: you have to take a deep breath and look at

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Speaker 1: how a business landscape is changing. Football now is rewarding

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Speaker 1: offensive head coaches and offensive cultures. Look at the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Bill Belicheck feels out of touch. Bears defensive coach, last place,

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Speaker 1: Washington defensive coach, last place, Jets defensive coach, last place,

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Speaker 1: Houston defensive coach, last place, Chargers. You made a mistake.

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Speaker 1: You could have hired Brian Dable. You hired Brandon Staley.

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Speaker 1: And my sources tell me at times he can be

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Speaker 1: a notable. At times he can be stubborn. They basically

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Speaker 1: gave him an ultimatum, make coaching changes or you're out.

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Speaker 1: He made coaching changes, but I don't think in the

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Speaker 1: All right, I bring in my longtime friend Matt Moseley,

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Speaker 1: co host of the Doomsday Podcast with Ed Werder. How

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Speaker 1: is Ed? I haven't seen Ed in sometime. How is

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Speaker 1: the old gent doing? Doing fine? Doing fine? Put in

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Speaker 1: a full day of work on that playoff game, and

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Speaker 1: certainly let me know about that was out there for

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Speaker 1: about twelve hours. So the man loves to get to

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Speaker 1: a game early, stay late, and he was shutting it

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Speaker 1: down with the Doomsday Podcast from the stadium there with

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Speaker 1: the ship with a pirate ship in it last night

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Speaker 1: at about one or two in the morning, he was podcasting,

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Speaker 1: So he's a he's still getting napped. So the bad news,

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Speaker 1: let's just get that out of the way, is the

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Speaker 1: Niners were done Saturday afternoon. The Cowboys have almost a

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Speaker 1: two and a half day preparation debit going into this game.

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Speaker 1: I bet they're not happy about it. No, and I

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Speaker 1: don't think it'll happen again. I do think the league

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Speaker 1: will address it. But everybody, including people who are not

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Speaker 1: with us anymore, Lamar Hunt being one of them, are

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Speaker 1: looking down and laughing at the Cowboys over this because

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Speaker 1: he fought for years thinking they had a Thanksgiving, you know,

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Speaker 1: the whole Thanksgiving and how that went, and how they

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Speaker 1: got to be home every game on Thanksgiving. That was

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Speaker 1: a huge deal over the year. So some people think

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys have been getting favors from the league for many,

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Speaker 1: many years. So if one team needs to a franchise

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Speaker 1: needs to suffer this fate, it should be the Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: But I think in the future you won't see a

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Speaker 1: team finish up more than forty eight hours before another

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Speaker 1: team who's then coming to their place. I think the

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Speaker 1: league will find a way not to have that happen again.

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Speaker 1: And I think it is somewhat of a factory and

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Speaker 1: it provides it provides a built an excuse if the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys lose to the Great Brock Party. One of the

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Speaker 1: things about Dallas, you know, I said this today in

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Speaker 1: defense of Mike McCarthy. This is a top five offense

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Speaker 1: in the league, rebuilding the old line. Still don't have

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Speaker 1: a clear number two. Hieron Smith out for most of

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Speaker 1: the year. Dalton Schultzman's two games and really wasn't good

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Speaker 1: until post Thanksgiving. All that said, Aaron Rodgers red zone poor,

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers offense poor. That divorced the more and more

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Speaker 1: you look at it. Mike went forward one with Cooper

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Speaker 1: f and rush that. It's easy because Aaron's on every commercial.

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Speaker 1: He's a star quarterback, he's an MVP to weigh in

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Speaker 1: on that breakup and favor Aaron. But I look at

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Speaker 1: this season for Mike. They're playing their best football now.

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Speaker 1: Dalton Schultz is now a real factor. I didn't think

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Speaker 1: he was eight weeks ago. Do you think has there

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Speaker 1: been anything that you, Matt, have changed your opinion on

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Speaker 1: regarding McCarthy this year where you may have been a

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Speaker 1: tad cynical and you've come to appreciate him. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think I was more than a tad sit of cool. Colin.

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Speaker 1: You're being kind to me to say just a tad cynical.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if really I ever had the full

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Speaker 1: respect that I do now, and you mentioned it. The

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Speaker 1: Cooper Rush aspect of this weighs heavy on Jerry, and

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Speaker 1: it weighs out everybody, and a lot of lately people

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Speaker 1: are trying to figure out, Okay, what was going on

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Speaker 1: with Dak. I mean, what happened last night, with the

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Speaker 1: way Dak played was the enormous story coming out of

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Speaker 1: this game. And I do think Mike McCarthy one thing

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Speaker 1: he did, and I think he did a pretty good

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Speaker 1: job with aaron of this boy. He takes care of

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Speaker 1: his quarterbacks and he takes care of the relationship. And

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Speaker 1: early on when Dak had some injuries and was coming

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Speaker 1: back from some things, there's some stories about Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 1: going over to his house and spending hours upon hours

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Speaker 1: with him. So he's certainly, you know, it is funny.

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Speaker 1: Sean Payton a guy you like a lot. I've pretty

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Speaker 1: well over the years. He's a sexier choice. I mean,

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Speaker 1: is he a better coach, Sure, sure he is, just

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Speaker 1: because he's a brighter, more innovative, offensive mine. But McCarthy

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Speaker 1: has sort of a way with these players, and I

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Speaker 1: don't know if we ever fully give him credit for that,

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Speaker 1: but I thought you saw it with a Cooper Rush thing,

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Speaker 1: because on this very podcast, when they opened with that

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Speaker 1: awful loss a deck injury, he was already playing poorly

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Speaker 1: before the injury. It looked like there was no hope

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Speaker 1: for this team. So who else do you give a

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Speaker 1: credit for? I mean, you gotta give us some to

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Speaker 1: Cooper Rush, maybe to Kellen Moore for maybe the way

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Speaker 1: he called some of these games. But Mike sort of

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Speaker 1: presided over all of that, you know, And I think

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Speaker 1: that's I think the thing that's been tough for him

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Speaker 1: over the years is, you know, not calling plays because

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Speaker 1: a lot of these guys, they are a whole identity

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Speaker 1: is tied up in that, and it's why sometimes we

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Speaker 1: don't even know what the chiefs right. It's like wait,

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Speaker 1: who wait, who's calling plays? Its Andy is you know,

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Speaker 1: is being amy? I mean, there's there's some debate because

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Speaker 1: some of these head coaches have such a hard time

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Speaker 1: giving that up. So there have been coaches for the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys that have been told, okay, you're not doing anymore.

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Speaker 1: Jason Garrett had taken away from him. McCarthy just said,

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Speaker 1: you know what, this is what it requires of me

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Speaker 1: to become the head coach there. I've got to give

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Speaker 1: this up, and he's done a pretty good job with it.

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Speaker 1: And he's certainly you can't accuse the guy of micromanaging

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Speaker 1: like you can, you know. I mean, he's he's got

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Speaker 1: the laminated chart. He'd like to fold it over, but

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Speaker 1: he's not even like think about that. Last night we

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Speaker 1: talk about how great Dak was. How did he start

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Speaker 1: that game? Two? Three and out? Stories oh for three.

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Speaker 1: He looks shaky, Sandy looks jittery. To him, it's not

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Speaker 1: going well. And I think Mike McCarthy's just kind of

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Speaker 1: like he's a stay the course kind of guy. And

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Speaker 1: I think that's, you know, for now, it seems like

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Speaker 1: what the Cowboys need. You know, there's always been turbulence

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Speaker 1: associated coaching the Cowboys that other coaches don't face. Your

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Speaker 1: owner goes public every week, you have more national TV games.

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Speaker 1: Those are often game times are disrupted a lot of

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Speaker 1: Sunday night, Monday night. It's a very you know, Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: doesn't have to deal with that much. Dallas has to

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Speaker 1: deal with a seven to eight times a year. That's

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Speaker 1: why there's now a limit on how many times you

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Speaker 1: can play in primetime. It's the cowboy rule. So the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys don't have to have a night game. I know

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Speaker 1: when the Giants had Eli manning and we're pretty good

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Speaker 1: for multiple stretches. I knew somebody inside the Giants he's

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Speaker 1: like the organization hates these night games. We all get

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Speaker 1: home at two. They're disruptive all week. So Mike hasn't

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Speaker 1: done himself verse through the years. You know, he's just

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Speaker 1: you know, at the podium, he's pretty average. And I think,

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Speaker 1: you know what, I think Mike deserves a little more respect.

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Speaker 1: I guess that's my takeaway. Yeah, I think I think

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Speaker 1: you're onto something. And where he'll ultimately get it is

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Speaker 1: if he wins this game. Oh my next Sunday. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, I hear people say, and I even heard

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Speaker 1: Troy say something to the effect of, you know, Dallas

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Speaker 1: is only measured on Super Bowls. Well, yeah, because of

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Speaker 1: course Troy won three of those things. It's been so long,

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Speaker 1: and you and I talked about this before you go

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Speaker 1: back to the nineteen ninety five season. They that's not

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Speaker 1: how people think around here anymore. Cowboys win that game

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Speaker 1: on the road, and it is winnable. That is a

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Speaker 1: winnable game. Like I know, Brock Purty's undefeated, but Brock

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Speaker 1: Purty still a seventh round draft pick. Who's I mean

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Speaker 1: in his second playoff game. I mean that we can't

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Speaker 1: just core and ate him and go like it acts like.

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Speaker 1: I mean, is he surrounded by really good coaching and

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Speaker 1: really good players. You bet he is. But the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: have a guy with seven years experience twenty nine year

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Speaker 1: old peak of his career, and the Cowboys have possibly

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Speaker 1: one of the best schematic and one of the best

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Speaker 1: defensive thinkers in the game on that side of the ball.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you want somebody to take on a

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Speaker 1: rookie quarterback in disguising, I mean, all you have to

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Speaker 1: do is look at last night. Tom Brady was just

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Speaker 1: like baffled. I mean, and we can blame it all whatever,

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Speaker 1: but he blame it on the offix line. But something

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Speaker 1: happened to cause him to just that that weird. I mean,

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Speaker 1: think about it. Think of all the people calling that

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Speaker 1: game last They were trying to give him an excuse.

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Speaker 1: Was he wanting the receiver to come back? Was he

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Speaker 1: trying to throw the ball out of the out of bounds?

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Speaker 1: He threw some kind of crazy ball in the red zone,

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Speaker 1: you know, and so I I think that's a huge

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Speaker 1: advantage for the Cowboys. Still as much as I like

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Speaker 1: Rock Purty, and by the way, I've watched him a

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Speaker 1: ton because I watched a lot of Big twelve football,

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Speaker 1: so I have a sort of a body of work

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Speaker 1: to but I can't because I've watched him so much,

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Speaker 1: I can't buy into They're just so good they're gonna

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Speaker 1: kind of carry Brock with them. I think dan Quinn

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Speaker 1: will have something for him in a big way on

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Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon. The line is surprisingly low Niners minus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. That tells me, dan Quinn, Brock Purty

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Speaker 1: your theory. Vegas sees it that they think it's going

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Speaker 1: to be lower scoring, so do I. Seattle's a bad

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Speaker 1: defensive team. Dallas has some spectacular players. I still think

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Speaker 1: they need another corner and that will be at some

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Speaker 1: point exposed against Philadelphia or San Francisco. I think I

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Speaker 1: think it has a twenty seven twenty field to it.

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Speaker 1: What do you what do you think the game looks like?

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Speaker 1: You know, with it being three and a half, I

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Speaker 1: would lean toward betting the Cowboys getting those points. Um

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Speaker 1: I saw it open. I thought about four and a

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Speaker 1: half and I was really thinking, Okay, I would lean

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Speaker 1: that way. I agree. Um, I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: interesting because the Cowboys at times have been susceptible to

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Speaker 1: the run. You know, they've they've struggled with the group.

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Speaker 1: The thing the Cowboys have, it's they've got a versatile

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Speaker 1: group on the line. Two guys that were inactive last night,

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Speaker 1: Bohannah and Neville Gallimore, are big, huge plugger types. Last

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Speaker 1: night they got Hankins in there, and so that was

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Speaker 1: their big, huge guy. But the rest of the people

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Speaker 1: they went with all thin, long pass rushers. Cowboys can

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Speaker 1: go either way, and so I think what you'll see

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Speaker 1: them do is really load up to stop that run game.

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Speaker 1: I think the Asday thing about this, I think you

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Speaker 1: maybe leaning the right way. I think it's a low

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Speaker 1: storied game. I think it's rare that San Francisco finds

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Speaker 1: somebody that will play as physical as they will. I

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Speaker 1: don't normally think we think of the Cowboys like that.

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Speaker 1: I've heard you over the years say finesse, speed, all

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Speaker 1: those kinds of things. The Cowboys team that showed up

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Speaker 1: last night, yeah, was incredibly physical. Yes, and the safeties

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Speaker 1: were hitting like crazy. Vander esh was a good edition.

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Speaker 1: He came back for Majory. He helps in the run

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Speaker 1: against the run as well, and I like, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's where Purdy's gonna have to watch it because they're

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Speaker 1: gonna use Parsons. Quinn loves to do what he did

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Speaker 1: last night. Move him back off the line a little bit,

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Speaker 1: sometimes get him outside, line him up, maybe in the

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Speaker 1: middle standing. You never know where he's gonna be. And

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Speaker 1: right now, he's the biggest defensive weapon in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: He's there's just not there's not a game wrecker like him.

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Speaker 1: There are people that may have more sex or may

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Speaker 1: even put up bigger numbers, but there's no one. And

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Speaker 1: they used to have somebody like that, DeMarcus ware. There's

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Speaker 1: no one there. They spend more time worrying about. And

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Speaker 1: that's a great thing when you have somebody like that,

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Speaker 1: and it's great for those other players. DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorrence Armstrong.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about we we kind of beat up

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Speaker 1: on the Cowboys for not being able to land Randy

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Speaker 1: Gregory in the offseason. What did Randy Gregory do this

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Speaker 1: year for Denver? Nothing? He was hurt most of the time,

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Speaker 1: and the Cowboys ended up so your your point earlier,

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Speaker 1: though it is the right one. It's a little scary

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Speaker 1: at cornerback, Like it really comes down to um, you know,

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Speaker 1: whether it be debot I you, I mean, you know

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Speaker 1: how deep do they truly go? And you're Harrison of

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Speaker 1: the receiving units cowboys, I will say, Gallup, who's not

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Speaker 1: getting much separation, can make plays. So I mean, I

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Speaker 1: do think. I do think he gives them something. He

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Speaker 1: can beat people down the field. He's a straight line runner.

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Speaker 1: I feel like CD can get the drops at times.

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Speaker 1: I think he's a pretty average one a stupendous two.

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Speaker 1: I think Schultz's outstanding, and they have a one two punch.

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Speaker 1: I think their offensive line and you gotta credit McCarthy

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Speaker 1: on this, it is much better post Thanksgiving. It is

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Speaker 1: a better offensive line. That's what it feels like to me,

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Speaker 1: it to you? Does it? Yeah? It's gonna be interesting

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Speaker 1: because you know, they had to make some changes last night.

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Speaker 1: Peters came out of that game and they kicked Pollard

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Speaker 1: Smith out. He's been good out there, and they had

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Speaker 1: to put McGovern out there. They had to put McGovern

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Speaker 1: in at guard. I think that'll be fascinating to watch

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Speaker 1: the other thing I would bring up is, and I've

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Speaker 1: said this before yesterday's game, Pollard was going to be

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Speaker 1: a huge key and it's like a real bell weather

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Speaker 1: for this team is if he has seventy five or

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Speaker 1: more rushing yards, they tend to perform so much better.

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Speaker 1: And and what you have to watch in this game

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Speaker 1: is what did what did Zeke end up for rush

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Speaker 1: in this last game? It's like two point one. He's

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Speaker 1: been doing that for several weeks now. Now short yard,

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Speaker 1: it's still good. He still go get you a yard.

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Speaker 1: But when you find yourself after a game and you

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Speaker 1: look at the stats and Zeke has taken up twelve

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Speaker 1: to fifteen of your carries, you've probably made some mistakes.

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Speaker 1: And I think Kellen called a really good game. But

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Speaker 1: each time you run Zeke, you're taking about a twenty

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Speaker 1: five yard opportunity away from your offense. Because again, Zeke

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Speaker 1: does some good things, he brings some really good leadership.

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Speaker 1: But Pollard is your home run. And you heard him

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Speaker 1: talking about it last night, and it's true. And plus

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Speaker 1: if there's only a small hole, Powered is a tougher

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Speaker 1: back than he's given credit for, so he's got great balance.

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Speaker 1: We Powered I mean, you have to approach this game

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Speaker 1: like this is our bell cow And but they'll treat

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Speaker 1: Zeke like the ceremonial starter, which you better get. You

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Speaker 1: better get pollered in there early. What is going on everybody?

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Speaker 1: John Middlecoff here Three and Out podcast joined by Colin Coward,

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Speaker 1: Rocket and Rolling. Hopefully everyone's having a good night Monday

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Speaker 1: night football. The divisional round is set. But before we

426
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: dive in me and Colin make sure you subscribe like

427
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: the Volumes YouTube page. Make sure you subscribe to the

428
00:26:52,240 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: Three and Out podcast. I want to tell you about

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Speaker 1: my friends at game Time. Game Time is the fastest

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Speaker 1: recommend enough game Time Do it right now? Okay, Colin.

445
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 1: We now have what is it? Eight team set? We

446
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: have the divisional round set. We had Monday night football,

447
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 1: two big brands, a lot of pressure on the Cowboys,

448
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: and you got to give the coaching staff and they'll start.

449
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 1: I guess with Dak, who was you know, probably played

450
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 1: one of his better games of his career. Yeah. I

451
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:07,119
Speaker 1: thought that was as good a performance as Dak's ever had.

452
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 1: My rule has always been a good quarterback has a

453
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: lousy week, they'll bounce back. These are pro athletes. You

454
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,760
Speaker 1: don't become a pro I mean, Dak's never been a

455
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 1: pro athlete because he has a beautiful arm, because he's

456
00:28:24,880 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 1: the twitchiest this, or the most gifted that. He's a

457
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,879
Speaker 1: very driven, aspirational guy. He works really really hard that

458
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 1: his craft and doesn't need you know, a self motivated guy.

459
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 1: And when you play really bad for the Cowboys or

460
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: any big profile team, you almost always bounce back. So

461
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: I like Dallas tonight. I thought Dak would play really well.

462
00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: I thought he had a drive. May have been at

463
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: the end. I'm looking at my notes here, can't eleven

464
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 1: straight complations. At one point I thought he kind of

465
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 1: gave his body up a couple of times. Tonight felt

466
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 1: like like Dak really understood it was big. Yeah, like

467
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:08,719
Speaker 1: the opposite of Kirk Cousins, who I felt even yesterday.

468
00:29:08,760 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 1: You know, underneath throws, Dak was running out there, throll

469
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: going head first, jumping into defenders. It was like Dak

470
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: really understood what it meant for him, the team, the Cowboys,

471
00:29:21,720 --> 00:29:23,960
Speaker 1: and I thought he was terrific. I really thought Dak

472
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: was as good as I've seen him as a pro. Yeah.

473
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: I think sometimes him and Cousins get lumped in. You know,

474
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:33,080
Speaker 1: they're kind of that second tier guy. Statistics sometimes parallel

475
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: each other. But when you saw tonight, they get Dak

476
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 1: on the move. Cousins doesn't have that in the bag.

477
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: I mean one of the reasons Dak. You know, he

478
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: wasn't a great passer in college. It was athletic ability,

479
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: and I think ever since the ankle injury, you get

480
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:46,880
Speaker 1: him on the move. I watched tonight thinking, you know

481
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 1: this is that player is a problem for the forty

482
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:51,800
Speaker 1: nine ers. If he's gonna play at that level on

483
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: the move, he's not. He's ever gonna be Peyton Manning

484
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,760
Speaker 1: and Tom Brady from the pocket. But if you can

485
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: mix up the play action stuff, obviously the play action touchdown,

486
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: he has the elements to his game that when you

487
00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 1: ask him to throw at forty plus times from the pocket,

488
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: that's when he gets in trouble. Yeah, I think Dallas

489
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 1: Dallas is an interesting matchup. They can put pressure on Purty.

490
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: The weakness of the Niners tends to be their old line,

491
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 1: especially the center right, so I think you can move

492
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 1: Micah round DeMarcus Lawrence. I think they can create a

493
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 1: little discomfort for the forty nine ers. You know Dallas. Now,

494
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 1: Dallas tonight played virtually flawless, So let's expect Dallas to

495
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 1: not play as well next week. I mean, that's kind

496
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,640
Speaker 1: of They're a highly emotional team. Many of their best

497
00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 1: players Trayvon dig Ceedee, Lamb, Micah Parsons are very young players.

498
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: They tend to be emotional, so they're a little hot

499
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: and cold. They'll probably pull back next week. I expect

500
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: the Niners to win. But I will say this. I

501
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: talked about this on my show today. Mike McCarthy took

502
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 1: one hundred percent of the pr beating in the divorce

503
00:30:56,040 --> 00:31:01,280
Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers. Aaron three straight years losing at Lambeau,

504
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: outplayed by an old Tom Goff and Garoppolo in the

505
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: fourth quarter, Mike McCarthy with a nearly flawless game plan tonight.

506
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:14,040
Speaker 1: I'm not saying Mike McCarthy didn't shouldn't shoulder some of

507
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: the blame with Aaron Rodgers, but Matt Lafleur hasn't solved

508
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 1: kind of the fourth quarter, Aaron Rodgers, hasn't solved the

509
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: playoff disappointment Aaron Rodgers. And here's McCarthy four and one

510
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: with Cooper Rush, sixty five percent winner with Dak Prescott.

511
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 1: We got to give Mike McCarthy a little respect like

512
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: that was a hell of a performance tonight before we

513
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:40,920
Speaker 1: dive into a couple other things. Obviously, Tom I've been

514
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 1: saying for a while he's a shell of himself, not

515
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: from his inability to throw right Breeze couldn't throw, Ben

516
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: couldn't throw, Peyton couldn't throw. At the end Tom could

517
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: still throw. I mean, hell, right until the end of

518
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 1: that game he was you can see the arm strength. Yes,

519
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: he wants no part of being hit. I don't blame him.

520
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,040
Speaker 1: He's forty five years old. I bet you go down

521
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 1: ski slopes you know, yesterday differently than you would have

522
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: thirty years ago. Right, You just there's a risk factor

523
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 1: at his age. Makes no sense. But he can't play

524
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 1: quarterback at a high level if he's not willing to

525
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 1: stay in there because he's never been able to move,

526
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,360
Speaker 1: and that was always kind of a point of differentiation

527
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: for him. He would stay in there and throw the

528
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: dart at the last second, right, and now he just won't.

529
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: And let's face it, no matter any of the teams

530
00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: that have options that no team has the mid nineties

531
00:32:26,360 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: Cowboys offensive line. So he's gonna get hit. That's part

532
00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: of the sport right now, because well, offensive lines aren't

533
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: that great. So I mean, what's he gonna do. Miami

534
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 1: feels like the fit to me because that's a distribution

535
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,480
Speaker 1: offense with a lot of good weapons. But I was

536
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,160
Speaker 1: texting a friend tonight and I said, you know, Tom

537
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 1: needs to now cherry picked teams without holes. Offensively, he

538
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: no longer elevates others, right, Whereas like when he went

539
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: to Tampa, get me Tristan worse, get me Lenny, playoff

540
00:32:57,040 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 1: Lenny bring Gronk, get me a bat. The reality with

541
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: Tom brock Purty costs nothing for four years, He's more,

542
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: He's in his prime. Tom's not, he's more Mobile's um

543
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 1: now he's gaining playoff experience. Like this idea that San

544
00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:14,959
Speaker 1: Francisco is going to make a move on him. They

545
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: got Trey Lance brock Purty and they're not paying either

546
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:21,800
Speaker 1: one of them anything. If you want to keep this defense,

547
00:33:21,960 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 1: if you want to keep both those linebackers, if you

548
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:26,720
Speaker 1: want to keep all those d linemen, you got to

549
00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: save somewhere. And you know, I think, I think to

550
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:36,240
Speaker 1: your point, Brady now no longer elevates. He needs protection.

551
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: You can't have a bad right tackle with Tom. You

552
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 1: can't look at their offense in the last three months.

553
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: You have to have a run game, the Mahomes Burrow,

554
00:33:45,920 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: Alan Herbert Um. I mean, if you go look at statistically,

555
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: the Chargers don't do anything well and they took a

556
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: twenty seven nothing lead in a playoff game on the road.

557
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: Like so I think I think Miami looks like a

558
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: good fit for Tom in terms of they kind of

559
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: have offensively, they kind of have all the pieces, a

560
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 1: lot of bubble screen guys. One over the top guy,

561
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: tight end that one. And it's the San Francisco system. Yeah,

562
00:34:13,680 --> 00:34:16,720
Speaker 1: and San Francisco needs a quarterback that's upright and healthy.

563
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 1: Seventeen eighteen weeks a year. I gotta quote for you

564
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: because I know you love the wiring of the quarterbacks.

565
00:34:23,600 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: I saw Kittle talk to Peter King and on Purdy

566
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 1: and he said failure is a big part of learning

567
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 1: to play quarterback in the NFL. And Brock had success

568
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,239
Speaker 1: and failure in college, so nothing is really unknown to him.

569
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: Since he's got here, he understands. And you see some

570
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks that get to the NFL and have

571
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: a lot of success. Patrick Mahomes failed a lot in college,

572
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: Josh Allen up and down roller coaster in college. Joe

573
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: Burrow had to leave a college. Right. These guys aren't

574
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: just going to Alabama Ohio State and winning it all

575
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:57,439
Speaker 1: and just getting the job from the jump, go through

576
00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 1: ups and downs. Because I what he's obviously is unprecedented,

577
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: But when you really dive in and look beside his size,

578
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: all big twelve guy, first team twice, second team or

579
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 1: is sophomore year, so a lot of success and it

580
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 1: didn't all go perfect. Had a great year and then

581
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,640
Speaker 1: a senior year didn't go as well. So mentally you

582
00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 1: watch him talk, you go, god, this guy kind of

583
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,080
Speaker 1: feels like he talks like a quarterback, like he's not

584
00:35:21,120 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 1: it's not too big for him. Well, the thing I

585
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 1: really noticed John the not two things that jump out,

586
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 1: and this is first of all, tells you how good

587
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:35,240
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan is hit the whole fifth round, Jennings sixth round,

588
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:39,720
Speaker 1: Elijah Mitchell sixth round, pretty seventh round. Name another offense

589
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 1: in the league that has this many late round like

590
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 1: highly productive players. Kyle's brilliant. That's first thing this system

591
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: can take guy. Now Kittle would have starred anywhere. I

592
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 1: don't think the old guys would. The second thing is

593
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: Matt Campbell's a very good football coach at Iowa State.

594
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:02,040
Speaker 1: If Harball left, he would be a finalist for Michigan.

595
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: They were very good with Purdy he left, They were

596
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 1: awful this year a timeout, so they were recruiting on

597
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,479
Speaker 1: the success with Purdy. The recruiting has gone up. Campbell's coach.

598
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: The Big twelve was not very good, and I always

599
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 1: stay it was awful. Maybe Brock Purdy is Romo or

600
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: Kurt Warner. He was just either under scouted or overlooked

601
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:32,000
Speaker 1: that Like when I watched him, the one thing that

602
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: jumps out to me he is his quick decision making

603
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 1: is exceptional. Like he dirted that ball yesterday when the

604
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:44,319
Speaker 1: play blew up and he just dirted it. He you know,

605
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: he's very good at like moving out of the pocket

606
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 1: and re establishing his feet and his shoulders, like he's

607
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 1: just mechanically. When I read the scouting on him, and

608
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: you're a former NFL scout, it was he was sloppy

609
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 1: and erratic. I think some of it is Kyle's coach,

610
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:04,880
Speaker 1: some of it out of him. Yeah, he looks really

611
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:08,440
Speaker 1: his feet are good. His decision making, you know, he

612
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,800
Speaker 1: straightens himself out. He goes from sideways quick to the feet.

613
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:14,680
Speaker 1: Some of this is Kyle. We gotta give Kyle a

614
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 1: lot of credit. Yeah, I mean, and I think he

615
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,400
Speaker 1: has some natural instincts and he's a much better athlete.

616
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: You know, his ten time, the ten yard split in

617
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: the forty is the same as Christian McCaffrey's and Pete

618
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 1: said after the game, he said, you know, I didn't

619
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: realize he was this mobile. I looked over there. I

620
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,760
Speaker 1: thought it was fran Tarkington runner around. I mean they couldn't.

621
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 1: I mean they were chasing them all. Now, the Cowboys

622
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,080
Speaker 1: Micah probably does catch him, so he's got to be

623
00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: but he has a very good understanding of his speed

624
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:42,600
Speaker 1: relative to the guy chasing him. And that's something that

625
00:37:42,680 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: you can only learn. You know, Trey Lance, for an athlete,

626
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 1: didn't play very fast, and in fairness to him, how

627
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 1: woody he played one season at a small school. Perties

628
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: used to see an NFL guy's chase him. That's a

629
00:37:53,280 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 1: really good point. I you know, I'm gonna write that down.

630
00:37:56,320 --> 00:37:58,399
Speaker 1: That's a very good point. I heard the same thing

631
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 1: about Trey Lance, that he's a power runner, more cam

632
00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 1: than Lamar, and that Pretty is a little bit more

633
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:12,520
Speaker 1: twitchy than try. Pray's big, strong power arm. He's actually

634
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:18,240
Speaker 1: kind of the opposite of Pretty. Where Brock is accurate twitchy,

635
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: um quick, Pray is a power arm. His football his

636
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 1: football smarts, I mean, to have this offense down like

637
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 1: he does is in Saint Matt Ryan said it took

638
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 1: him a year to figure it out. This guy's in

639
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: his rookie season. It's it's it's pretty crazy to watch last,

640
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 1: but not least, the day ball Daniel Jones. What he's

641
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 1: done with this quarterback, to me, has a lot of

642
00:38:41,239 --> 00:38:44,360
Speaker 1: similarities what Jim Harbaught did in twenty eleven with Alex Smith.

643
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:47,840
Speaker 1: You know a high pick who's probably not as talented

644
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,359
Speaker 1: as the elite guys, but clearly has a lot going

645
00:38:50,400 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: for him. You know, Duke guy, Utah guy, smart, big

646
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 1: can move what he's got going on with Daniel Jones. Obviously,

647
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 1: Minnesota's defense sucks, but just throughout this season, it's spend

648
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,720
Speaker 1: He's worth his weight in gold to the Giants immediately.

649
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,960
Speaker 1: Just doing that. I think the Alex Smith comps really smart.

650
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,319
Speaker 1: I think Daniel Jones is a little bit better armed too.

651
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: If you watch what they did do him so over

652
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: the first let's say, until Thanksgiving, they pulled down the mistakes.

653
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 1: They slightly elevated his completion percentage. This is what he

654
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:28,759
Speaker 1: did with Josh Allen. They eliminate the mistakes, They give

655
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 1: him some easy lay up throws, take some risk out

656
00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 1: of it. With Daniel now Daniel's not Josh Allen athletically,

657
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,279
Speaker 1: but what they did was, I mean, Daniel led the

658
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 1: NFL like in quarterback fumbles. The first couple of years,

659
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: he was a mess. No, he was turning the ball over.

660
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 1: Not reduced that, and then a little more accurate. And

661
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,880
Speaker 1: then after Thanksgiving a few weeks after it, then they

662
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,040
Speaker 1: kind of let him loose. Okay, we're gonna go from

663
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 1: twenty four to twenty eight. They let him loose, and

664
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: they did it against the Vikings the first game. Obviously,

665
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 1: Dabel looks at the film and says, this defense, I

666
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 1: can let him lose. And they did it again. So

667
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:08,320
Speaker 1: this is what worries me about Daniel. He's really his

668
00:40:08,360 --> 00:40:11,480
Speaker 1: two best games of the year arguably were against the Vikings.

669
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: He had a good game against the Lions. But Carolina

670
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: ate him up, Dallas ate him up twice, Philadelphia ate

671
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: him up once, ate him up once. I think Daniel's limited.

672
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: I think we're going crazy right now. I think what

673
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 1: you do if you're the Giants, they got to get

674
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:35,320
Speaker 1: a tight end, a receiver, probably a corner. I wouldn't

675
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: be I don't think it's crazy. This sounds nuts. Fifth

676
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:44,359
Speaker 1: sixth round draft another quarterback, just I think or your

677
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 1: franchise tag him John that's more than you want to

678
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 1: pay him. But they don't have a ton of huge contracts, right,

679
00:40:54,760 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: so say Quon Dexter Lawrence. But they don't have a

680
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: lot of big contracts. We're gonna rebuild this offensive line.

681
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 1: Both their tackles now, Evan Neil and Thomas are you know, cheap.

682
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 1: They're gonna They're gonna draft receivers and tight ends. So

683
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:13,799
Speaker 1: this offense outside of Barkley is not very expensive. And

684
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 1: he but he's a free agent, and it's hard. What

685
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:17,399
Speaker 1: do you do with running backs, you know, like giving

686
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: them long term contracts. But dammy, I think you have

687
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 1: to keep him because of Daniel's little I think you

688
00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 1: have to. All right, I had a winning week. I

689
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 1: went three and two thanks to the Jags, Ravens, and Cowboys.

690
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 1: Chad Milman's CCO Action Network All odds provided by Fan

691
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 1: Duel I said last week, I will not be mocked

692
00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 1: or ridiculed. I'd loved Dallas. I think sometimes you have

693
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 1: to be honest about what a team is. Tampa was

694
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 1: eight nine sort of what they are, and it was unveiled.

695
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: So this week we've got four games, and I feel

696
00:41:56,520 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 1: there's always whenever you go into these big games, I

697
00:42:00,480 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 1: try to simplify everything. What are these teams at this

698
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 1: point and what are they not? So one of my

699
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 1: I don't like big favorites, you know this chat, But

700
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:14,400
Speaker 1: Kansas City minus eight and a half is my play.

701
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: Andy reidoff a bye is the greatest NFL coach ever.

702
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 1: They met in the first matchup, and as Greg Kosell

703
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:25,840
Speaker 1: pointed out to me, there are some Jacksonville personnel disadvantages

704
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 1: on defense here they probably won't be able to overcome.

705
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,440
Speaker 1: They're still in a rebuild. I argue they're a year

706
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: ahead of schedule. Jacksonville's off their biggest franchise winning years.

707
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: This is still a quarterback with less than you know,

708
00:42:40,680 --> 00:42:44,960
Speaker 1: forty starts. This is a lot to ask for the Jags.

709
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 1: I like the Chiefs by ten or more. Sharper square.

710
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: So it's square, but not like egregiously square. It's square

711
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:06,839
Speaker 1: because there is so much data for trends, so much

712
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 1: analysis broadly in this situation for number one seeds underperforming

713
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 1: against the market, and for the Chiefs specifically underperforming against

714
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:22,320
Speaker 1: the market when they are really big favorites. So That's

715
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 1: why what's really interesting, and we're going to get through this.

716
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 1: With all the games today, there are very specific play

717
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:35,480
Speaker 1: the trends sides and play the matchup sides, and so

718
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,719
Speaker 1: with this one, the Wise guys are playing the trends. Agreed.

719
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 1: Jackonsville's past defense is not very good, but the Chiefs

720
00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:48,320
Speaker 1: are not nearly as explosive as they were with Tyreek Hill.

721
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 1: They tend to play ball control when they get a lead.

722
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 1: And ball control for the Chiefs doesn't mean they're just

723
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: running it fifty times. It means shorter passes, it means

724
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 1: a little bit more conservative on the play calling, not

725
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 1: the sort of sling it like Patrick Mahomes normally does.

726
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:08,240
Speaker 1: So I think that you're starting to see the Wise

727
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:12,520
Speaker 1: guys really like the Jaguars. Here. A couple other trends

728
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 1: that you should think about is that in the past

729
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 1: twenty years, number one seeds are thirteen twenty five and

730
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: one against the spread in this round, and when they're

731
00:44:24,560 --> 00:44:27,879
Speaker 1: favored by less than ten points, they're eight twenty two

732
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:33,920
Speaker 1: and one. So that hits the button for two number

733
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 1: one seeds this weekend. All right, Hey, listen, Miami kept

734
00:44:37,920 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 1: it close with Buffalo with Skyler Thompson. So that is

735
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:46,880
Speaker 1: that was a little bit of a last two times

736
00:44:46,880 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 1: Miami played them, I thought Mike McDaniel out Coach McDermott.

737
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:52,919
Speaker 1: Get to that in a second. So Giants plus seven

738
00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 1: and a half at Philly is the side for me.

739
00:44:56,280 --> 00:45:00,279
Speaker 1: I worry about Jalen Hurts one hundred percent held. I

740
00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 1: worry of some of its inactivity. I worry about a

741
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,319
Speaker 1: team that's become increasingly injured and turnover prone in the

742
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 1: last two months of the season. The Giants have a

743
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: way they have to play, but with Daniel Jones now

744
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 1: running the football more, they're a little better third down team.

745
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: They can play keep away a little better. Now that said,

746
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,640
Speaker 1: Minnesota's awful and Daniel jones two best games were against

747
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 1: the Vikings, so let's slow down. I like Philly to win,

748
00:45:32,200 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: but in a division rivalry game, Philadelphia was not playing

749
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: great at the end of the year. I think the

750
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:43,959
Speaker 1: buye does them no favors here. I'm going to take

751
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 1: the seven and a half sharper square colin. I normally

752
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 1: say when I don't have a consensus that it is

753
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,759
Speaker 1: completely split. What I will say this time is that

754
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 1: there has been really smart money at big, big wagers

755
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:06,399
Speaker 1: on the Eagles and really really smart money at big

756
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: big wagers on the Giants. And this is where covering

757
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 1: sports betting gets the most fascinating. Games like these. We

758
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 1: just talked about trends versus matchups. We talked about public often,

759
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: we talk about being on the public side, fading the

760
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: public at being against the public. Right now, the Giants

761
00:46:28,440 --> 00:46:31,759
Speaker 1: are a very very public team. They did exactly what

762
00:46:31,840 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: you just said against the Eagles. They had ten or

763
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 1: eleven wins in one score games. They were a covering machine.

764
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 1: The public is down on the Eagles right now. They

765
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: are not even the favorite to win the Super Bowl

766
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: from the NFC, that is the brock Purty led Niners.

767
00:46:50,200 --> 00:46:53,640
Speaker 1: So what you're doing if you like the Eagles, you're

768
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: actually fading the public right now because the Giants are

769
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 1: a public dog. And where this gets really really interesting,

770
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:07,359
Speaker 1: really interesting. You are seeing massive amounts of money and

771
00:47:07,560 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 1: massive amounts of tickets coming in on the Giants. And

772
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:14,200
Speaker 1: this line has been sitting at seven and a half

773
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 1: since Monday, so we're now with Thursday. You get a

774
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: massive amount of money on one side, and bookmakers usually

775
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:26,320
Speaker 1: move the line. They haven't moved the line because they're

776
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:30,840
Speaker 1: also getting significant wise guy play on the Eagles. I

777
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,919
Speaker 1: will tell you, as we often talk about the wise

778
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,440
Speaker 1: guy calls that we get for the favorites podcast Call

779
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:40,440
Speaker 1: of Sharp Calls completely split on this, but we do

780
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,560
Speaker 1: go ahead and decide to make taking the Eagles at

781
00:47:43,600 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 1: seven and a half are big balls better the week

782
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 1: because we like the matchup for the Eagles on the

783
00:47:52,600 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: field better. We think they're a better team. Jalen Hurt

784
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,279
Speaker 1: Jordan Davis on the field at the same time, have

785
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,920
Speaker 1: not lost once this year. If we did not have

786
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: the public situation, if the Eagles hadn't been fading at

787
00:48:04,160 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 1: the end of the year when Jalen Hurts was hurt,

788
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:10,240
Speaker 1: it'd probably be ten point favorites. It's a tough one, though, Colin.

789
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 1: The world is divided. This is splitting the world. This

790
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: and the Death Sailing are splitting the world in two Okay,

791
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 1: this one. I have no idea. I'm going to take

792
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:24,439
Speaker 1: the Bengals up to five and a half foun duel

793
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,680
Speaker 1: odds if they I've said this today on the show,

794
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 1: and I'll get pushed back. I'm sir sure on social media.

795
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: If the on line was healthy for Cincinnati. I think

796
00:48:33,239 --> 00:48:37,120
Speaker 1: they'd blow out Buffalo. I think they're a significantly better

797
00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:41,120
Speaker 1: situational team. I think they're more balanced offensively. They're not

798
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:44,720
Speaker 1: actually as beholden to Joe Burrow as the Bill's offense

799
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 1: is now to Josh Allen. Greg ko Sell said it today.

800
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: Take out Allen and Stefon Diggs. Buffalo's offense personnel is

801
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,360
Speaker 1: just not that talented, and you see it on film.

802
00:48:56,400 --> 00:49:01,400
Speaker 1: Buffalo is mistake prone. But they played very poorly against Miami.

803
00:49:03,600 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 1: Sean Payton told me the best weeks to be a

804
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 1: coach when you'll win and play like shit because you

805
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 1: can ride those players all week. I think Buffalo is

806
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 1: gonna play a lot better. Bengals are missing three offensive linemen.

807
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,400
Speaker 1: The five and a half is a lot to give Burrow,

808
00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:21,839
Speaker 1: who's an excellent road quarterback, So I probably pay play

809
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:26,320
Speaker 1: Cincinnati with no conviction at all. I think Buffalo rebounds

810
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:28,840
Speaker 1: and plays well. I'll take the Bengals and the point

811
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 1: sharper square. So flip around everything you just said and

812
00:49:32,840 --> 00:49:37,240
Speaker 1: don't be a square and take the Bills. Because if

813
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,320
Speaker 1: to say that, if the Bengals were not missing three

814
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:47,040
Speaker 1: offensive linemen, would be like saying if I had scored

815
00:49:47,040 --> 00:49:50,439
Speaker 1: a hundred points in a game in Hershey, Pennsylvania, I'd

816
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:54,359
Speaker 1: be an NBA legend. That's how sort of fantastical that

817
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 1: kind of if. Then statement is okay, they don't have

818
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 1: the three linemen, and we saw what happened to the

819
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 1: Bengals when they were missing fields. The Ravens team that

820
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:11,040
Speaker 1: not even downfield. Joe Burrow can't even drop back like this,

821
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:14,719
Speaker 1: second he drops back, someone is in his lap. And

822
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:18,240
Speaker 1: the Ravens were doing that with a lot of heavy,

823
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 1: heavy blitzing and pass rushing. The Bills have a very

824
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:25,000
Speaker 1: deep defensive line. They're a top ten pressure rate defensive

825
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:29,680
Speaker 1: line without blitzing. And you make the points about playing badly, right,

826
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 1: So let's look at two teams that did not play

827
00:50:32,680 --> 00:50:34,960
Speaker 1: well in the opening round of the playoffs that were

828
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 1: playing against backup quarterbacks. Buffalo Bills played Skylar Thompson. They

829
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 1: played terrible, They had bad, really bad breaks. They still

830
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:48,880
Speaker 1: kind of won that game handily, right, The score was

831
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 1: closer than it appeared in the fourth quarter. The Bengals

832
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 1: played a backup quarterback, they gained two hundred and thirty

833
00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:59,279
Speaker 1: four yards on offense, and they won the game. On

834
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,760
Speaker 1: a lucky ninety eight yard fumble recovery by a defensive linement,

835
00:51:03,840 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: not because their offense did anything special and Joe Burrow

836
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 1: did anything special. So this game opened at six and

837
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,720
Speaker 1: a half, it got bet down to three and a half,

838
00:51:11,880 --> 00:51:13,799
Speaker 1: it hit three and a half, and the wise guy

839
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 1: started pummeling it. Three and a half, four, four and

840
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 1: a half, five, five and a half. I would tell

841
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 1: anybody bet the Bills at five and a half. If

842
00:51:23,040 --> 00:51:25,279
Speaker 1: he gets to six, you walk away. Maybe you take

843
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 1: a piece of the Bengals. But when you get from

844
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,280
Speaker 1: say four and a half to five and a half,

845
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 1: you're kind of in these dead numbers, right. The games

846
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 1: really don't land. It's either going to land on six

847
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 1: or it might land on four. So I say you

848
00:51:38,400 --> 00:51:40,760
Speaker 1: take you take the five and a half with the Bills.

849
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 1: I hate all my picks. I hope I convinced you

850
00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 1: of that. I really do this one. So you can't

851
00:51:48,600 --> 00:51:52,600
Speaker 1: the offensive line thing, you cannot. You cannot discount that

852
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 1: it's massive well, and also a huge component of burrows

853
00:51:56,480 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 1: greatness is the sneaky deep ball. He's deadly accurate fifteen

854
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 1: yards in yet he's got a tony romo. He loves

855
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 1: to let it rip sometimes in a double coverage and

856
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 1: he's really successful. You just took that out. They become

857
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 1: much easier to defend, or a nibble team because when

858
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: you're missing three offensive lineman, the deep, the vertical passes out,

859
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:24,239
Speaker 1: so they become a very safe offense. I don't think

860
00:52:24,280 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 1: you can go to Buffalo, Okay, So from time to

861
00:52:28,840 --> 00:52:32,000
Speaker 1: time I admit this. I actually admitted a lot is

862
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:34,359
Speaker 1: that my wife's an artist and so she sees things

863
00:52:34,400 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 1: I don't. And sometimes I'll see a number and go, well,

864
00:52:39,760 --> 00:52:44,319
Speaker 1: somebody knows something I don't. I guess the numbers before

865
00:52:44,360 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 1: they come out, and if there's a big variance and

866
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 1: it's about once a week or once every other week,

867
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 1: I'm like, wow, that's a big variance. Vegas knows something

868
00:52:54,040 --> 00:53:01,200
Speaker 1: I don't know. So the Cowboys have a forty eight

869
00:53:01,239 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 1: hour minimum preparation deficit. They didn't get home until two

870
00:53:06,160 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 1: to three in the morning on Tuesday. The Niners game

871
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:15,480
Speaker 1: was over Saturday afternoon. Also short week. Facing now the

872
00:53:15,520 --> 00:53:18,879
Speaker 1: most physical team in the league. It's not like it's

873
00:53:18,880 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 1: a finesse team. Like I talked to Gerald McCoy about

874
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,520
Speaker 1: this and he said, forget the prep time. Is that

875
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,840
Speaker 1: body going to be ready for San Francisco for three hours?

876
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 1: They are just it is sumo wrestling. It is just

877
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 1: contact and bounding. And my guest on the number was

878
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,160
Speaker 1: five and a half and it came in at three

879
00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 1: and a half. I thought I thought at five and

880
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:44,120
Speaker 1: a half it was safe at home. Two day prep advantage.

881
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:48,840
Speaker 1: Smartest offensive coach in a game in which Seattle is

882
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 1: not physical. They've tossed him around. So it tells me

883
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:55,520
Speaker 1: the game's going to be closer. Vegas as smarter than

884
00:53:55,520 --> 00:53:58,320
Speaker 1: I am, so I'd take the Cowboys and the points.

885
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:05,319
Speaker 1: And I hate it. Sharper square, you are. This is

886
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 1: the sharpest thing you've ever said as a as a

887
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:13,080
Speaker 1: sports analyst talking about betting. You've said many many other

888
00:54:13,120 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: sharp things in the context of your life, but in

889
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:19,959
Speaker 1: this particular context, this is the sharpest thing you've ever said.

890
00:54:20,360 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 1: It's there. It's fishy, man. The game actually opened at

891
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 1: four and a half, got that down to four, got

892
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 1: bet down to three and a half. Somebody took a

893
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 1: little bit of money on the Niners at three and

894
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 1: a half. But this is a pros Joe's game. Like,

895
00:54:34,440 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 1: majority of the tickets on the Niners majority on the

896
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:41,760
Speaker 1: money on the Cowboys right now, And there's a really

897
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:46,799
Speaker 1: interesting narrative taking place in the betting world. And this

898
00:54:46,840 --> 00:54:49,319
Speaker 1: is why I love covering the betting world because and

899
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 1: why I always have there is a conversation, a shadow

900
00:54:53,160 --> 00:54:58,880
Speaker 1: conversation happening amongst millions and millions of betters that influences

901
00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:03,160
Speaker 1: billions of dollars in markets right But it's an entirely

902
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: different narrative than what is happening in sort of the

903
00:55:05,680 --> 00:55:10,280
Speaker 1: general sports debate space when people are analyzing these games.

904
00:55:11,280 --> 00:55:14,959
Speaker 1: The narrative right now is that if you look back,

905
00:55:16,120 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 1: who have the Niners played, and when they have played

906
00:55:19,120 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 1: those teams, has their defense been not as good as

907
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 1: we thought? And so Brock Purdy's been winning all of

908
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 1: these games against quarterbacks who a lot of quarterbacks might

909
00:55:31,080 --> 00:55:33,520
Speaker 1: be able to beat if they have Kyle Shanahan as

910
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 1: their play caller and their scheme designer. And meanwhile, the

911
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:42,480
Speaker 1: defense terrible first half against Geno Smith, terrible second half

912
00:55:42,760 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 1: against the Raiders. You're starting to see a lot of cracks.

913
00:55:45,560 --> 00:55:47,239
Speaker 1: That is a narrative that has taken place in the

914
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: betting community right now with the Niners defense, and so

915
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 1: I have been shocked to hear about the Cowboy love

916
00:55:56,880 --> 00:55:59,800
Speaker 1: this week, because I mean especially me. I was so

917
00:56:00,120 --> 00:56:04,799
Speaker 1: anti Cowboys last week, sadly, but this week the wise

918
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:06,799
Speaker 1: guys are on the Cowboys. It was a stunner for me.

919
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:10,640
Speaker 1: I hate all my picks. I've never said that. I

920
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:14,360
Speaker 1: hate everything every week at this time of year, Colin,

921
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:19,360
Speaker 1: there's nothing to love. You're grinding it out, You're hanging

922
00:56:19,400 --> 00:56:23,120
Speaker 1: on by figuringails, just hoping, dear God, can we get

923
00:56:23,160 --> 00:56:25,800
Speaker 1: to the Super Bowl. I mean, I thought the Chiefs,

924
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 1: I just could be Chiefs was so sharp. I was

925
00:56:28,640 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 1: going to call my pick cheddar. It was so good,

926
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 1: And now I wouldn't better mettle on that thing. So

927
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 1: what's interesting about that is, I would say of the

928
00:56:43,880 --> 00:56:46,959
Speaker 1: of the sharp plays, that's the one that I think

929
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 1: people are most skeptical about. What is starting to get

930
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,359
Speaker 1: some plays the under in that game Andy Reid at

931
00:56:55,520 --> 00:57:01,080
Speaker 1: Arrowhead in his career, the unders are about eight percent

932
00:57:01,600 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 1: when he is a seven point favorite or more. That

933
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 1: climbs to seventy percent. So the unders at fifty three

934
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 1: could go down to fifty two and a half. So

935
00:57:12,520 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 1: there's a lot of conversation about that. But that kind

936
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: of game script. If it's an under plays to the

937
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 1: strength of Jacksonville, let's try keeping it close. I mean

938
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:22,360
Speaker 1: it's hard to give up eight and a half the score.

939
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:25,680
Speaker 1: If they toted up at fifty two, that's a lot

940
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 1: of points. Yeah, it's a lot of points. It's a

941
00:57:30,520 --> 00:57:33,840
Speaker 1: lot of points. Betting is hard. I hit. Everybody can

942
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 1: do it. Listen to this Millman. Fifty five percent in

943
00:57:36,880 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 1: the year, so my blazing five is done. So now

944
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 1: I only have four games, so yep, so fifty five

945
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:44,240
Speaker 1: percent on the year, fifty five and a half percent.

946
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,320
Speaker 1: Always I have always said fifty six is my goal,

947
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:50,120
Speaker 1: fifty six fifty six and a half, because you could

948
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,040
Speaker 1: be a pro better at fifty six. I am not,

949
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:54,640
Speaker 1: but I feel good. Last year was my worst year.

950
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:56,440
Speaker 1: It was the COVID year. I couldn't figure. I had

951
00:57:56,480 --> 00:57:59,560
Speaker 1: no rhythm all year. So I ended up last two

952
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:01,680
Speaker 1: weeks three in two, fifty five and a half. I

953
00:58:01,760 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 1: like that. Like it. If you could grind out three

954
00:58:05,760 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 1: in two every single week, yeah, you're professional better. That's

955
00:58:09,520 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: that's the goal. Right when we did the you know Colin,

956
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:15,240
Speaker 1: when Simon Hunter and I would go through our five

957
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,360
Speaker 1: best picks every week, on the favorite podcast Our Goal

958
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:21,240
Speaker 1: every week three and two, three and two, three and two,

959
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:23,360
Speaker 1: three and two, Because look at that, you go three

960
00:58:23,400 --> 00:58:27,440
Speaker 1: and two over eighteen weeks. You end the year nearly

961
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 1: twenty games over five hundred. If you're like, who's going

962
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 1: to walk away saying I just went twenty games over

963
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 1: five hundred betting NFL and if you're betting, the same

964
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 1: number of dollars, and dollars equates to units. Whatever you

965
00:58:39,440 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: uni size. For you, a unit size might be a

966
00:58:41,640 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 1: million dollars a game. For me, it's like, you know,

967
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:46,640
Speaker 1: maybe ten bucks a game, but a unit size, I'm

968
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 1: up twenty units at the end of the year. That's fantastic.

969
00:58:50,640 --> 00:58:54,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, I always look at a hundred bucks a

970
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:57,840
Speaker 1: game because if I win it, I take I take

971
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 1: the little girl out for a snappy to key, a

972
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 1: shot or two. Yeah, and some Mexican food. Yeah, leave

973
00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 1: a tip. That's how I look at it. Free dinner

974
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 1: with my beautiful redhead, my smart, beautiful, talented, red headed wife.

975
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:13,160
Speaker 1: That's the way to go. That's totally the way to go.

976
00:59:13,600 --> 00:59:17,440
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Ravens for one second,

977
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 1: because you were on him, I was on them. That

978
00:59:20,400 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 1: was a crazy game last week because it was six

979
00:59:22,360 --> 00:59:24,919
Speaker 1: and a half, then seven, seven and a half, eight

980
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:29,760
Speaker 1: and a half. It was a sweat. Man, they should

981
00:59:29,760 --> 00:59:33,960
Speaker 1: have won that game, oh, because it's probably I think

982
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:37,400
Speaker 1: fans sometimes understand this, but there argue there was a

983
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 1: fourteen point play, yeah in that game, and I think

984
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:45,080
Speaker 1: about that one play, fourteen point swing on the sneak,

985
00:59:45,960 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 1: and so when we want now, usually guys complain about

986
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:52,919
Speaker 1: that when they lose. So I won that bet and

987
00:59:53,360 --> 00:59:55,919
Speaker 1: lost a fourteen point swing. Yeah, so you know it's

988
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 1: the right side when you lose the two touchdown swing.

989
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 1: And I I felt to the very end, I'm like

990
01:00:01,920 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 1: I knew I was on the right side. Yes, it

991
01:00:04,080 --> 01:00:08,320
Speaker 1: was funny. When the Chargers led big at half. My

992
01:00:08,480 --> 01:00:11,960
Speaker 1: takeaway was this is the Chargers. They're going to get

993
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:15,440
Speaker 1: with a defensive coach squirrely in the second half. And

994
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,200
Speaker 1: I was sitting with a buddy and I said, I

995
01:00:17,200 --> 01:00:19,400
Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna win. I think the Chargers will.

996
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 1: I said, you watched this thing with three minutes to go.

997
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 1: He was a Charger fan. I said you better watch this.

998
01:00:26,320 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 1: I said, this thing's gonna get because you know they

999
01:00:29,040 --> 01:00:30,920
Speaker 1: want to get on that flight and go home. You

1000
01:00:30,960 --> 01:00:32,320
Speaker 1: do not want to be in a losing flight. They're

1001
01:00:32,320 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 1: gonna take no big chances. And by the way, Jacksonville

1002
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 1: is pretty good coming from behind. They really are. If

1003
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:42,200
Speaker 1: they throw nine straight times with Trevor and Doug Peterson,

1004
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,920
Speaker 1: they're not bad at that. That's kind of a comfort

1005
01:00:45,000 --> 01:00:49,280
Speaker 1: level to them. Look, we talked about this in the podcast.

1006
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:54,280
Speaker 1: We liked the Jags, and we liked the Jags because

1007
01:00:54,840 --> 01:00:57,320
Speaker 1: of the coaching mismatch, and that's what it came down to.

1008
01:00:57,480 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 1: We said specifically, I will not bet on Brandon Staley

1009
01:01:01,440 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 1: as a favorite on the road against Doug Peterson. People

1010
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,959
Speaker 1: will try to categorize them because they both are risk

1011
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 1: taking coaches. Doug Peterson is risks taking in a very

1012
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 1: strategic way. Brandon Staley is okay with his offensive coordinator

1013
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:22,400
Speaker 1: throwing the ball up twenty seven nothing in the second half.

1014
01:01:22,440 --> 01:01:25,840
Speaker 1: That's not risk taking. That's just bad decision making completely.

1015
01:01:25,880 --> 01:01:27,760
Speaker 1: And I will say one more thing, one more thing

1016
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 1: to back up the Cincinnati play. You know, we will

1017
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:34,680
Speaker 1: do these luck rankings every week right where we're aggregating

1018
01:01:34,680 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 1: all this different data and it basically says this is

1019
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 1: what should have happened the game, and it predicts regression

1020
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:42,680
Speaker 1: the following week. It tells you who's overvalued who's undervalued.

1021
01:01:42,680 --> 01:01:46,960
Speaker 1: In a game last week, the luckiest team in the

1022
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 1: league Cincinnati Bengals. If you played that game with the

1023
01:01:51,840 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 1: plays that and they happened as they were expected to happen,

1024
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:59,480
Speaker 1: meaning there's not a fumble recovery for ninety eight yards,

1025
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 1: Baltimore is expected to win that game. Twenty two fourteen.

1026
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 1: I don't tell you we're on the Bills. It's the

1027
01:02:07,320 --> 01:02:12,440
Speaker 1: last word. I think. Yeah, I think Bills and Cowboys.

1028
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:15,760
Speaker 1: I can live with Giants. I feel like crap Chiefs

1029
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 1: is ridiculous. Now, like I'm gonna bet the Eagles and

1030
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:24,160
Speaker 1: it makes me sick to my stomach. I've bet the Cowboys.

1031
01:02:24,320 --> 01:02:27,240
Speaker 1: I'm sick to my stomach. I bet the Jaguars. I'm

1032
01:02:27,240 --> 01:02:29,280
Speaker 1: sick to my stomach. The only one I feel good

1033
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:31,760
Speaker 1: about it is the Bills. So you know what that means.

1034
01:02:33,280 --> 01:02:50,320
Speaker 1: Bills are the only ones going to lose the volume.

1035
01:02:53,680 --> 01:02:56,640
Speaker 1: Make sure to check out the dram On Green Show.

1036
01:02:57,040 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 1: I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of

1037
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:03,200
Speaker 1: the more entered hating voices in sports. Unique perspective understands

1038
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 1: Behind the Rope also chops up with guests like Gary Peyton,

1039
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:10,919
Speaker 1: Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download The Draymond Green

1040
01:03:10,960 --> 01:03:15,800
Speaker 1: Show wherever you get your podcasts. Only on the Volume

1041
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 1: podcast Network