1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us prout

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:05,400
Speaker 1: read a lot?

3
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 2: They're running a game.

4
00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:17,440
Speaker 3: So smooth, so sweet, slendid sisting just glorious extrocution.

5
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

6
00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:22,520
Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

7
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 4: How shut with that?

8
00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,720
Speaker 2: Shop with mind, buddy, And that's why you see your

9
00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:31,720
Speaker 2: beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most dangerous amount

10
00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 2: of the planet.

11
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,000
Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

12
00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,639
Speaker 4: Shut up, I'm trying.

13
00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:45,400
Speaker 2: The wall. It's left too the wide eyed.

14
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:52,839
Speaker 1: Drilled pibus, how old Earth pick that happens? Hello and

15
00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,680
Speaker 1: welcome to Wondergulf, a new soccer betting podcast from the

16
00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,440
Speaker 1: Action Network. I'm your host, Michael Leeboff, and every Monday

17
00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,960
Speaker 1: and Thursday, I'll be joined by my Action colleagues BJ

18
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,000
Speaker 1: Cunningham and Anthony Debundo. Together the three of us will

19
00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:09,039
Speaker 1: handicap soccer matches across Champions League, Premier League, Bundesliga, Syria, A,

20
00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,280
Speaker 1: La Liga and even legal. But before we get to

21
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 1: this week's action, I do have a piece of business

22
00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,480
Speaker 1: to attend to to celebrate this new journey, we're all

23
00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:19,640
Speaker 1: on where we are holding a contest and all you

24
00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,120
Speaker 1: need to do to enter said contest is leave us

25
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,920
Speaker 1: a nice review on the Wonder Goal podcast feed. If

26
00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,480
Speaker 1: you do that and leave your Twitter handle in the review,

27
00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,679
Speaker 1: you will automatically be entered into a contest to win

28
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,520
Speaker 1: the soccer jersey of your choice from this season. With

29
00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:36,160
Speaker 1: that out of the way, let's talk about this week's

30
00:01:36,280 --> 00:01:40,040
Speaker 1: midweek action, which is limited to La Liga and Syria

31
00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,800
Speaker 1: A and one League OH match which has a lot

32
00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 1: of kind of fun overtones to it, and we'll get

33
00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,680
Speaker 1: to that at the end, but we'll start in Syria

34
00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:51,120
Speaker 1: in Italy and BJ You want to take us through

35
00:01:51,160 --> 00:01:55,080
Speaker 1: this Venetia celler Natana match at the bottom of the table.

36
00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,800
Speaker 1: Venezias plus one fifteen favorites. Son Atana comes back at

37
00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,520
Speaker 1: plus two fifty five plus two forty five. This is

38
00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:06,080
Speaker 1: a twelve thirty kickoff on Tuesday afternoon. What better way

39
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,480
Speaker 1: to spend a work day than watching two Syria A

40
00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:13,000
Speaker 1: teams fight it out in a relegation six pointer, right exactly.

41
00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:14,320
Speaker 3: These are two newly promoted teams.

42
00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 5: You know, Venetia, they were really bad to start their

43
00:02:17,440 --> 00:02:20,080
Speaker 5: promotion campaign, but they've been steadily improving. They've won the

44
00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,400
Speaker 5: expected goals battle in three of their last four matches.

45
00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,919
Speaker 5: They haven't been great offensively. They're bottom five in pretty

46
00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,239
Speaker 5: much every offensive category, but they're going up against the

47
00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 5: worst defense in Syria. Add because Salaryitana has just been

48
00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:32,400
Speaker 5: leaking goals left and right. They're allowing one point eight

49
00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,520
Speaker 5: nine non penalty expected goals for match, which is the

50
00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,280
Speaker 5: most in Syria A. They're also dead last and shots

51
00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:39,639
Speaker 5: allowed per ninety and big scoring chances, so I think

52
00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:41,720
Speaker 5: Venezia should be able to create a couple of big

53
00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:42,680
Speaker 5: chances in this one.

54
00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:44,359
Speaker 6: And Venezia has been really good defensively.

55
00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,639
Speaker 5: They're only allowing one point zero three non penalty expected

56
00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:48,880
Speaker 5: goals per match, which is fifth in Syria AH. They're

57
00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,119
Speaker 5: tenth and shots allowed per ninety and sixth and big

58
00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,480
Speaker 5: scoring chances allowed, while Salaryitana is bottom five and pretty

59
00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:57,679
Speaker 5: much every offensive metric including they're only averaging one point

60
00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:00,160
Speaker 5: nine to eight non penalty expected goals per match. So

61
00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 5: I like Venetia plus one fifteen. I have been projected

62
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:04,880
Speaker 5: at minus one thirty one, so I think there's some

63
00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:06,760
Speaker 5: good value on them to grab all three points in

64
00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:08,160
Speaker 5: this relegation battle.

65
00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,320
Speaker 1: They of course made some wavelengths or shockwaves with their

66
00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,200
Speaker 1: kits their beautiful, beautiful jerseys. They're an American owned team.

67
00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:18,560
Speaker 1: A lot of Syria teams owned by Americans. Somehow, I

68
00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:21,040
Speaker 1: actually like the over. I think both of these defenses

69
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:24,400
Speaker 1: are trash. Do I trust the offenses? Probably not? But

70
00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:26,720
Speaker 1: you know, two and a half is fine for me.

71
00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:29,840
Speaker 1: It's a Tuesday afternoon at twelve thirty if I've taken

72
00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:32,760
Speaker 1: over and watch these two teams, and hopefully somebody scores

73
00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,560
Speaker 1: early to kind of set this match on fire, and

74
00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,200
Speaker 1: I think both teams and especially Venizia will go for it,

75
00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,480
Speaker 1: so it could be a little bit more wide open

76
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:44,240
Speaker 1: than your normal sleepy twelve thirty pm Eastern kickoff in Italy.

77
00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,800
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. Ac Milan minus one eighty

78
00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:51,600
Speaker 1: favorites over Torino. They're coming back at plus five fifty

79
00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,600
Speaker 1: the draw plus three ten. This is a Tuesday at

80
00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 1: two forty five pm, Anthony, Can you make a case

81
00:03:58,440 --> 00:03:59,160
Speaker 1: for the dog here?

82
00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:02,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, absltly ken I haven't been particularly impressed with Milan

83
00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:04,920
Speaker 4: in the last few matches, dating back to really the

84
00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,200
Speaker 4: Champions League defeat to Porteo. They really struggled to generate

85
00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:10,720
Speaker 4: much of anything. They've been dealing with a bit of

86
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 4: an injury crisis kind of across the board. Now it's

87
00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,440
Speaker 4: a lot on Ibrahimovich is back, but I actually don't

88
00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:18,120
Speaker 4: think this is necessarily the game where he's going to

89
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:19,960
Speaker 4: be able to really get at this three zero defense,

90
00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:24,279
Speaker 4: which contrary to expectations, has overperformed quite a bit. Their

91
00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:27,360
Speaker 4: third best in non penalty expected goal is allowed. They

92
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,880
Speaker 4: have allowed the fewest shots in the league, second fewest

93
00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,440
Speaker 4: big scoring chances. Their numbers are really impressive, and it's

94
00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:35,360
Speaker 4: not like they haven't been tested. They've played a pretty

95
00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,719
Speaker 4: solid schedule that includes multiple teams from the top of

96
00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,640
Speaker 4: the table. They did really well in the Turan Darby

97
00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:44,559
Speaker 4: against Juventus. They held NAPO League out off for almost

98
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:48,159
Speaker 4: the entire match, So they've really been tested and passed

99
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,440
Speaker 4: a lot of key tests here, and really this game

100
00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 4: is all about to Reno keeping Milan out of transition,

101
00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:55,240
Speaker 4: keeping them out of space and able to run at

102
00:04:55,279 --> 00:04:57,799
Speaker 4: them where they've been much more dangerous.

103
00:04:57,839 --> 00:04:59,640
Speaker 2: Milan has struggled when the game has been slowed a

104
00:04:59,680 --> 00:04:59,960
Speaker 2: little bit.

105
00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:02,559
Speaker 4: They haven't been quite as good when they've been forced

106
00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:04,479
Speaker 4: to break down teams who are willing to sit and

107
00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:06,320
Speaker 4: force them to do that. That is what Tarino will

108
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 4: do to. Reno has the lowest passes per defensive action

109
00:05:08,839 --> 00:05:11,960
Speaker 4: in Syria. They do not press. It's kind of they're

110
00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,840
Speaker 4: almost the leaders of the new Syria, you know, where

111
00:05:14,920 --> 00:05:18,560
Speaker 4: nobody presses anymore except Atlanta, and so Tono is the

112
00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,520
Speaker 4: team that they can give Milan some trouble here.

113
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:21,719
Speaker 2: I took the plus one.

114
00:05:22,520 --> 00:05:26,159
Speaker 4: Like I mentioned, Milan not particularly impressed, overvalued, especially after Saturday.

115
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:28,320
Speaker 4: They went up two goals and we're up a man

116
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:29,600
Speaker 4: against Bologna on the road.

117
00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:30,960
Speaker 2: Should have been an easy victory.

118
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,400
Speaker 4: They can see twice a little unlucky with an own

119
00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:36,040
Speaker 4: goal and then need a second red card on Bologna

120
00:05:36,160 --> 00:05:40,080
Speaker 4: to get finally break through on a volley by Ishmael Benisser.

121
00:05:40,600 --> 00:05:42,880
Speaker 4: Even then we weren't creating that many good chances. So

122
00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:46,800
Speaker 4: Milan starting to look like the Milan.

123
00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:47,239
Speaker 2: I was expecting.

124
00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:48,880
Speaker 4: They came out of the gates really strong. Now they're

125
00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,880
Speaker 4: looking a little bit more like the team I was expecting.

126
00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:53,720
Speaker 4: So Terino plus one is minus one ten.

127
00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:57,000
Speaker 2: I like that. They've really been impressive defensively.

128
00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to join you. I like the money

129
00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:02,240
Speaker 1: line plus five fifty or Trino good, good defensive team,

130
00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,640
Speaker 1: Like you said, they're a little bit of like an outlier.

131
00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:08,600
Speaker 1: They're total goals both teams combined in Torino matches lowest

132
00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,560
Speaker 1: in Syria at plus two point four to four goals

133
00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:14,120
Speaker 1: per match, So expect a coin flip. And if that's

134
00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:15,920
Speaker 1: the case, why wouldn't you want to take the team

135
00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,320
Speaker 1: at plus five to fifty in that kind of match? Right?

136
00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 4: And when you've a kind of slowed it down against Milan,

137
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,200
Speaker 4: Milan struggled to create chances. There was a few in

138
00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,119
Speaker 4: the second half, ultimately scoring offic set piece point seven

139
00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:28,760
Speaker 4: expected goals, whereas Atalanta, who likes to play it a

140
00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:30,760
Speaker 4: bit of a faster pace, kind of played into Milan's

141
00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,560
Speaker 4: hands a little bit created more chaos. Milan has guys

142
00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,120
Speaker 4: in space who can absolutely torch Tirino, but they won't

143
00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:37,240
Speaker 4: be able to do so quite.

144
00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:37,919
Speaker 2: As much in this game.

145
00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:40,840
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. This is a Wednesday at

146
00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,920
Speaker 1: twelve thirty Eastern kickoff Udines plus one fifty home favorites

147
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,760
Speaker 1: against Vermona plus one ninety five the draw at plus

148
00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,760
Speaker 1: two thirty five, a mid table matchup. This has BJ

149
00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:53,200
Speaker 1: Cunningham written all over it.

150
00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, Udinessa is a really interesting club right now because

151
00:06:56,320 --> 00:06:58,680
Speaker 5: last season, they had the biggest gap in Syria between

152
00:06:58,720 --> 00:07:01,599
Speaker 5: their actual goal differential and they're expected goal differential. But

153
00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:04,440
Speaker 5: during the transfer window they sold their best midfield of

154
00:07:04,480 --> 00:07:07,160
Speaker 5: Rodrigo de Paul Athletico Madrid and they're starting goalkeeper Wan

155
00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:10,800
Speaker 5: Musso to Atlanta. However, they've still been pretty good, especially offensively.

156
00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,960
Speaker 5: They're creating one point four two expected goals per match,

157
00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:15,320
Speaker 5: which is seventh in Syria. And now, look, I know

158
00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:18,600
Speaker 5: Verona just pasted Lazio on Sunday, but overall for the

159
00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:22,120
Speaker 5: season they've been pretty bad, especially defensively. Verona is allowing

160
00:07:22,200 --> 00:07:24,560
Speaker 5: one point five eight expected goals per match, They've allowed

161
00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,880
Speaker 5: fourteen point seventy five shots per ninety and thirteen big

162
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,400
Speaker 5: scoring chinches, all of which are in the bottom five

163
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:33,640
Speaker 5: of Syria A. Offensively, overall, Verona also hasn't.

164
00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:34,000
Speaker 3: Been that great.

165
00:07:34,080 --> 00:07:36,560
Speaker 5: Even though they created three point five six expected goals

166
00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,680
Speaker 5: against Lattio, they're creating under one non penalty expected goal

167
00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:42,280
Speaker 5: per match with nineteenth and shots per ninety and they're

168
00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:44,000
Speaker 5: one of the worst teams in the league against pressure

169
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:46,920
Speaker 5: and Udinesse has been middle of the road defensively, but

170
00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,440
Speaker 5: they did just hold Atlanta to point five eight expected

171
00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,400
Speaker 5: goals on Sunday, and they are in the top half

172
00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,600
Speaker 5: of the table in non penalty expected goals allowed per

173
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 5: match and big scoring chances allowed. I have Udinesse projected

174
00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,040
Speaker 5: at plus one zero six, so I like their drawn

175
00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:00,600
Speaker 5: up bet line at minus one thirty.

176
00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,200
Speaker 1: The next one that we're going to talk about features

177
00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:06,480
Speaker 1: a team that finally dropped points for the first time

178
00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,040
Speaker 1: the season. That's Napoli. There minus two to fifty five

179
00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,520
Speaker 1: home favorites against Bologna plus seven hundred, the draw plus

180
00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:16,400
Speaker 1: four hundred. This is a Thursday two forty five pm.

181
00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,800
Speaker 1: Roma just held Napoli to a nil nil draw today,

182
00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,480
Speaker 1: which is a Sunday, first time that they didn't win

183
00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,200
Speaker 1: a match this season. Anthony, do you think that this

184
00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 1: magical run is starting to sputter out for Napoli or

185
00:08:28,800 --> 00:08:30,200
Speaker 1: do you want to get right back behind him.

186
00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:31,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm actually targeting the total here.

187
00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:33,920
Speaker 4: I think Napoli has still been really impressive when you

188
00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,800
Speaker 4: look at all of their underlying numbers. They're still the

189
00:08:36,840 --> 00:08:39,600
Speaker 4: best defense in Syria by quite a bit in terms

190
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:43,880
Speaker 4: of expected goals allowed, their third fewest shots allowed, second

191
00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,800
Speaker 4: fewest box entries allowed, third fewest cross entries into the

192
00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,360
Speaker 4: penalty area. This is an elite defense by almost every

193
00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,640
Speaker 4: metric you can look at. They've also been very good

194
00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:54,480
Speaker 4: in Europe in the Europa League, in a pretty difficult

195
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:57,600
Speaker 4: group that includes Leicester City, so they've they've shown they

196
00:08:57,640 --> 00:08:59,680
Speaker 4: can do it on multiple fronts, which which leads me

197
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,720
Speaker 4: to believe it's more sustainable and not just the product

198
00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 4: of Syria teams not quite getting able to get at them.

199
00:09:04,520 --> 00:09:06,840
Speaker 2: They've also had some good wins, so I'm.

200
00:09:06,720 --> 00:09:09,559
Speaker 4: Not quite you know, ready to go against this Napoli defense,

201
00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 4: which has been the best. They're playing a Bologna team

202
00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:14,240
Speaker 4: who is due for some defensive aggression, running quite a

203
00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:17,880
Speaker 4: bit cold defensively, conceding a lot more chances than a

204
00:09:17,880 --> 00:09:20,520
Speaker 4: lot more goals than their underlying defensive numbers would suggest.

205
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:22,280
Speaker 2: They're actually fifth best.

206
00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 4: In non penalty XG allowed and fifth fewest big scoring chances.

207
00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:30,480
Speaker 4: They press more than most Syria teams will, but again

208
00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:34,000
Speaker 4: Napoli not exactly you know, they're more of a of

209
00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 4: a ball control team, so not too concerned about the

210
00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,160
Speaker 4: ability there to get you know, too much into transition

211
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:42,120
Speaker 4: with Napoli and Bologna and open this game up quite

212
00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,600
Speaker 4: a bit, so I think the number one you know,

213
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:47,440
Speaker 4: Bologna attack method is through crosses. Marco went Altovic has

214
00:09:47,480 --> 00:09:50,200
Speaker 4: been a great addition for them. He's been in and

215
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:51,600
Speaker 4: out of the lineup a little bit, but when he's played,

216
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:52,560
Speaker 4: he's been pretty solid.

217
00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:54,960
Speaker 2: The thing is going up against Kalai du Kouli Bali,

218
00:09:55,000 --> 00:09:55,440
Speaker 2: who might.

219
00:09:55,320 --> 00:09:57,600
Speaker 4: Be the best aerial defender in the world, It's going

220
00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,720
Speaker 4: to be very hard for Bologna to create through crosses.

221
00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,000
Speaker 4: So I think this is an under three here. These

222
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,560
Speaker 4: midweek European matches, you tend to get some squad rotation,

223
00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,000
Speaker 4: especially with the attackers. So maybe Napoli rotates here after

224
00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:10,560
Speaker 4: the big you know draw with Roma, maybe they rotate.

225
00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,120
Speaker 4: But I think under three, you know, even money, which

226
00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:14,680
Speaker 4: it's sitting at now, is a good look.

227
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, taking the under in a Napoli match it seems

228
00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,800
Speaker 1: to always be a smart move. I mean, this defense

229
00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:23,160
Speaker 1: is basically impenetrable, which might have something to do with

230
00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:25,920
Speaker 1: the reason BJ Cunningham is backing them to get the

231
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:27,280
Speaker 1: job done in this one.

232
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, I like Napoli minus one and a half at

233
00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:30,120
Speaker 6: plus one fifteen.

234
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,480
Speaker 5: I mean, the reason they've been so good is new

235
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:35,760
Speaker 5: manager Luciano Spiletti. He changed the formation from a four

236
00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:37,200
Speaker 5: two to three one to a four to three three

237
00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,360
Speaker 5: and the switch has just been fantastic. They have a

238
00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:42,000
Speaker 5: plus eight point four to seven expected golder French when

239
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:43,920
Speaker 5: playing out of the formation, they're averaging two point one

240
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,800
Speaker 5: to nine expected goals per ninety minutes, and like Anthony mentioned,

241
00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:50,480
Speaker 5: you know, their defense has been incredible. Bologna also without

242
00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,440
Speaker 5: two stars in this match because of the red cards

243
00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,920
Speaker 5: against ACEI Milan. They only have a negative point nine

244
00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,040
Speaker 5: to two expected gold differential on the season.

245
00:10:58,160 --> 00:11:00,320
Speaker 6: So I really like this Snapolie team.

246
00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:03,760
Speaker 5: They're a wagon right now and I'm just gonna keep

247
00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:08,760
Speaker 5: riding them until they finally lose. So yeah, I have

248
00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,520
Speaker 5: Napolis spread projected at minus one point four, so I

249
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,800
Speaker 5: like them at minus one point five at plus one fifteen.

250
00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,760
Speaker 1: Another match that I find some value and I think

251
00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,360
Speaker 1: it's going to be interesting is Roma, who are coming

252
00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:24,239
Speaker 1: off that neil nil draw with Napoli. First time anybody

253
00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,080
Speaker 1: has not lost to Napoli the season, I mean, and

254
00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,400
Speaker 1: considering that they just got pasted by a Norwegian club

255
00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,800
Speaker 1: in the midweek. I don't know if anyone was expecting that,

256
00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:35,960
Speaker 1: but I've been pretty impressed with what Jose Mourinho has done. Obviously,

257
00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,200
Speaker 1: he does seem to have a good first what six

258
00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:40,200
Speaker 1: seven months when he's at a new club, and then

259
00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,400
Speaker 1: things kind of go to crap from there, but I'll

260
00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:46,240
Speaker 1: keep riding them. They are taking on Caglieri, who are

261
00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,720
Speaker 1: plus three fifty home underdogs Roma at minus one thirty

262
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:52,280
Speaker 1: the draw plus two to eighty five. This is Wednesday

263
00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:54,640
Speaker 1: at two forty five pm. I just like to match

264
00:11:54,720 --> 00:11:58,480
Speaker 1: up Roma. Good defensive team, third best expected goals against

265
00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:02,600
Speaker 1: end goals against in Seria. Cagliari is then the bottom

266
00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,680
Speaker 1: third in defensive metrics, but they also don't really generate

267
00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:07,280
Speaker 1: a lot going forward, so I think if Roma does

268
00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,720
Speaker 1: get the job done, it'll be by multiple goals. So

269
00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,000
Speaker 1: I like minus one at plus money. It's I think

270
00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:13,920
Speaker 1: it's plus one thirty plus one fifty right now and

271
00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,040
Speaker 1: I would back that, and for you too, I think

272
00:12:17,040 --> 00:12:20,280
Speaker 1: you both will be tuned into the last Serie match.

273
00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:24,560
Speaker 1: We'll talk about Fiorentina versus Latio, as BJ Cunningham wants

274
00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,320
Speaker 1: to call it the overrated ball, BJ, We'll start with

275
00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:28,080
Speaker 1: you for this one.

276
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:29,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have no pick on this match.

277
00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:31,440
Speaker 5: I'll be honest, I do have some projected value on

278
00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 5: Lotsio and I have some projected value on the under,

279
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:35,920
Speaker 5: but I don't want to play either of those right

280
00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:36,960
Speaker 5: now because Number.

281
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,080
Speaker 6: One, Lazio's defense is a mess.

282
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,360
Speaker 5: They're I think they're allowing close to thirteen expected goals

283
00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:44,760
Speaker 5: in about nine matches, which is not good.

284
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:47,559
Speaker 6: And on the other hand, Thejorentina is close.

285
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,079
Speaker 5: To dead last in non penalty expected goals, but somehow

286
00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:53,360
Speaker 5: just keeps scoring. So this is one of those matches

287
00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:56,080
Speaker 5: that for my own mental health, I'm not going to bet,

288
00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 5: and I'm just gonna let these two teams score like

289
00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:01,439
Speaker 5: six goals off of like two point five total expected

290
00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:03,440
Speaker 5: goals and I'm just gonna move on with my life.

291
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,120
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Anthony, you can't stay away.

292
00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:09,280
Speaker 2: I can't kicking myself bet regret of the weekend.

293
00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:13,240
Speaker 4: From last weekend besides the Liverpool fiasco that I stayed

294
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,920
Speaker 4: away from was this Verona team who beat the Brakes

295
00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:19,920
Speaker 4: off Lotzio. I actually had the under. I was between

296
00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,640
Speaker 4: Verona and the under took the under bet regret Verona.

297
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:27,480
Speaker 4: This Lazzio defense has some glaring, glaring regression indicators, the

298
00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,880
Speaker 4: first one being that they've conceded the second fewest big

299
00:13:29,920 --> 00:13:33,840
Speaker 4: scoring chances, despite being in the bottom seven in box entries,

300
00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:38,520
Speaker 4: total pressures, pressure success rate, crosses completed. It's a marito

301
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:39,080
Speaker 4: sorry team.

302
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:39,720
Speaker 1: What do they like to do.

303
00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:41,120
Speaker 4: They like to have the ball, they like to pass

304
00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 4: the ball. They like to have slow, boring build up possession.

305
00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,959
Speaker 4: They're very good against pressure, but they haven't been able

306
00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,440
Speaker 4: to win the ball off opponents. They're pretty low in

307
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,800
Speaker 4: ball recoveries. They don't have the ability to go win

308
00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,400
Speaker 4: the ball back once they've lost it under Sorry. That's

309
00:13:56,440 --> 00:14:00,520
Speaker 4: a major concern going up against Fiorentina, who has done

310
00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:05,040
Speaker 4: pretty well against pressure. Their underlying numbers, you know, expected

311
00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:05,959
Speaker 4: goals are really bad.

312
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:06,720
Speaker 2: Bja mentioned it.

313
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:09,680
Speaker 4: They have the worst in the league in shots, third

314
00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,360
Speaker 4: worst in shots, worst in XTG. But the under you know,

315
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,679
Speaker 4: the other numbers like box entries and crosses are a

316
00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:18,600
Speaker 4: little bit better. So you know, I think that maybe,

317
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,640
Speaker 4: you know, the stuff that's leading to the expected goals

318
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:22,000
Speaker 4: will improve a little bit.

319
00:14:22,280 --> 00:14:23,080
Speaker 2: Here's one thing.

320
00:14:23,440 --> 00:14:26,080
Speaker 4: When games have been tied this season, So when when

321
00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,200
Speaker 4: it's eleven on eleven and the game is tied, Fiorentina

322
00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:31,800
Speaker 4: actually has the fifth best expected goal difference in the league.

323
00:14:31,800 --> 00:14:33,960
Speaker 4: There's been a lot of early goals in Fiorentina matches

324
00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,480
Speaker 4: that have kind of thrown it off, whereas Latzio is

325
00:14:36,520 --> 00:14:39,800
Speaker 4: the worst team in the league at even strength and

326
00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 4: even goal difference game state. So I think this is

327
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:45,240
Speaker 4: a spot where I think Fiorentina can get a lead

328
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 4: and then hopefully hold on. Their defense has been okay,

329
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,160
Speaker 4: not great, so I think Fiorentina is worth a look

330
00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,000
Speaker 4: on the money line as I look at fad Lazzio again.

331
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,280
Speaker 1: That's a wonderful way to wrap up the Syria portion

332
00:14:58,440 --> 00:15:01,680
Speaker 1: of the program. Let's over to Spain. I'm gonna kick

333
00:15:01,720 --> 00:15:05,400
Speaker 1: it off with a match on Tuesday at three pm.

334
00:15:05,440 --> 00:15:08,840
Speaker 1: This is Espanol plus one eighty home favorites, very slight

335
00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 1: home favorites against Bill Bao plus one eighty five, the

336
00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:14,440
Speaker 1: draw plus two oh five. Neither of these teams score.

337
00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:17,280
Speaker 1: Neither of these teams let in goals. I think Bill

338
00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:20,600
Speaker 1: Boo at this current moment fourteen total goals in their game.

339
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:24,160
Speaker 1: Fourteen total goals in their games. I'm all about that.

340
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:26,720
Speaker 1: I just love good defensive soccer teams, and I love

341
00:15:26,760 --> 00:15:29,200
Speaker 1: them especially when they're in La Liga. And Bill Boo

342
00:15:29,240 --> 00:15:31,720
Speaker 1: is a fun story, right. They're from the Basque country,

343
00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,120
Speaker 1: they don't buy any players from that aren't of Basque origin,

344
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,280
Speaker 1: and they somehow have never been relegated from La Liga.

345
00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:40,560
Speaker 1: It's an incredible team to kind of at least just

346
00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:43,440
Speaker 1: get interested in and learn the history of and then Espanol.

347
00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:47,080
Speaker 1: They are sitting at twenty total goals per match. That's

348
00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 1: two per match. This is a game that I am

349
00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:53,240
Speaker 1: all about to draw. I think it's great value plus

350
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,560
Speaker 1: two oh five. I think a lot of times if

351
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:57,520
Speaker 1: you're new to betting on soccer, you think, all right,

352
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,720
Speaker 1: I want about to draw in matches where teams are

353
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,480
Speaker 1: equally matched. But in fact you want to bet a

354
00:16:03,520 --> 00:16:05,640
Speaker 1: draw in a match like this where the total is

355
00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,720
Speaker 1: projected at two by book makers. What does that tell you?

356
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:13,000
Speaker 1: Not much scoring, not much variance. To expect, only twenty

357
00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:15,080
Speaker 1: two percent of bill Boo games have gotten over two

358
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,640
Speaker 1: and a half. So everything screams at a very very

359
00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:20,600
Speaker 1: low event game that has draw written all over at

360
00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 1: plus two oh five. Give me that. That is the

361
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:26,520
Speaker 1: perfect way to kick off a La Liga portion of

362
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:30,200
Speaker 1: this podcast. And then we'll move on another decent defensive

363
00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:34,160
Speaker 1: team via Real minus two sixty against Kadiz. They're eight

364
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 1: to one. The draw is plus three to ninety. This

365
00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:39,240
Speaker 1: is a Tuesday at three thirty kickoff, which is interesting

366
00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 1: and BJA get us started on this one.

367
00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I like under two and a half goals even Miami.

368
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,360
Speaker 5: Look, Hunayamori has his team playing really well in the

369
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,040
Speaker 5: Champions League right now, but Lali is a different story.

370
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,560
Speaker 5: You know, they're currently third and thirteenth place and they're

371
00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 5: averaging only one point one two expected goals per match.

372
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 5: In fact, in their last two matches against Athletic Bibat

373
00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,680
Speaker 5: Billbao in Osasuna, they only created a total of one

374
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 5: point one to nine expected goals. And Virel for a

375
00:17:02,640 --> 00:17:04,440
Speaker 5: majority of the time plays out of a four to

376
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,400
Speaker 5: four to two, but they're really bad when they're playing

377
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 5: out of it, negative three point zero eight expect a

378
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,399
Speaker 5: goal to French and only averaging point eight eight expect

379
00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:13,400
Speaker 5: goals per ninety minutes. And now they'll be going against

380
00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,760
Speaker 5: a Cadiz side that also plays out of a four

381
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 5: to four to two and Vireal has face to four

382
00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,840
Speaker 5: to four to two five times already this season in Spain.

383
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,200
Speaker 5: If you'd already don't know, Spain is a very defensive

384
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 5: style league. There's a ton of teams that play very

385
00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 5: defensive formations. But so it's not shocking that Vreel has

386
00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 5: faced to four to four to two five times already

387
00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,560
Speaker 5: the season. But in those five matches they've only created

388
00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:35,439
Speaker 5: four point six to nine expected goals. So not that

389
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 5: great offensively. And also, if you haven't seen this Cadiz

390
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,000
Speaker 5: team play, don't worry because you're not really missing anything.

391
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 5: They're one of the more defensive four to four twos

392
00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:47,200
Speaker 5: in Spain. They're really struggling to create chances offensively. They're

393
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,880
Speaker 5: only averaging point eight four non penalty expected goals per match.

394
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 5: They're only averaging nine shots per ninety minutes and seven

395
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,720
Speaker 5: point nine box entries per match. And now they're going

396
00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:56,959
Speaker 5: to gainst to ral defense that is only allowing one

397
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,479
Speaker 5: point zero six non penalty expected goals per match. So

398
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:02,240
Speaker 5: I have two point three to five goals projected for

399
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:04,320
Speaker 5: this match, So I like the value on under two

400
00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:05,919
Speaker 5: and a half goals at even money.

401
00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,560
Speaker 1: Let's root for a two nothing win for the Yellow Submarine.

402
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,080
Speaker 1: I like via real minus one and a half at

403
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:15,160
Speaker 1: plus money. Like you said, Cadiz is they're not good,

404
00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 1: so I am trusting Virel to be able to score

405
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:20,800
Speaker 1: at least two goals in this one, because I don't

406
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,800
Speaker 1: think Cadizez really has a chance of getting more than one.

407
00:18:23,800 --> 00:18:26,200
Speaker 1: I would be pretty shocked. They are near the bottom

408
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:29,400
Speaker 1: of La Liga in creating chances. Their defense is leak.

409
00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:33,280
Speaker 1: They're the second worst goals allowed and the worst expected

410
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 1: goals allowed. So I'm expecting Viril to be able to

411
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 1: run over, run all over this team. And like you said,

412
00:18:38,320 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 1: like Viorel is put in some really impressive performances in

413
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:44,600
Speaker 1: tournament play, La Liga play is a different story. Their

414
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 1: underlying metrics are basically bang average. Hopefully the team that

415
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:50,800
Speaker 1: we've seen in Champions League in Europe and going back

416
00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 1: to the Europa League last year shows up for this

417
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 1: one and they can malliwop Cadiz in this match. All right,

418
00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 1: let's move on. This one will be fun, right. Yacano

419
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 1: plus four to twenty five home underdogs to Barcelona coming

420
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 1: off a really tough loss to Real Madrid in El

421
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 1: Classico on Sunday. Ronald Cooman's seat is getting hotter and

422
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,760
Speaker 1: hotter by the day. They are minus one fifty five

423
00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 1: on the money line. The draw plus three ten this

424
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:21,120
Speaker 1: is a Wednesday one pm kickoff, Anthony, can you get

425
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,000
Speaker 1: behind Barcelona ever again?

426
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think there'll be times, you know, big game.

427
00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 4: Barcelona struck again on Sunday against Real Madrid and look,

428
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,399
Speaker 4: they had a few chances to win it.

429
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 2: They got kind of against the run of play goal

430
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:35,360
Speaker 2: with David Alaba.

431
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 4: But again just pretty mediocre stuff from Barcelona across the board.

432
00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,679
Speaker 4: Struggled in a big match against a team that I

433
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,160
Speaker 4: think is a little bit better than them.

434
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:46,200
Speaker 2: But this is a matchup.

435
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 4: I really like Ryo Vacano. Look, Vacano's new to Spain.

436
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,680
Speaker 4: They were the best team in the second division last year.

437
00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 4: They were extremely undervalued early in the season. If you

438
00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 4: follow me in the Action Network app, there would be

439
00:19:56,880 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 4: an occasional just Viacano money line it, you know, plus

440
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:00,400
Speaker 4: two hundre or better.

441
00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 2: And I think I won one or two and lost

442
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 2: a few.

443
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,640
Speaker 4: But a team I was looking to get behind based

444
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:07,159
Speaker 4: on some underlying numbers that I saw. They're a pretty

445
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 4: good team in the sense that this is their super

446
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,199
Speaker 4: bowl for Barcelona. This is just a midweek trip, you know,

447
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 4: against Ryavacano, who you know, off off of a loss

448
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 4: in their biggest match of the season, right, Akono. This

449
00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:21,640
Speaker 4: is the super Bowl for them, This is their biggest game.

450
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,880
Speaker 4: They have big biot Barcelona coming on a weekday night

451
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,040
Speaker 4: where they have a chance to really make a statement here.

452
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 4: This is an all in spot via Kano. The reason

453
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 4: I like.

454
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:31,960
Speaker 2: Them they create big scoring chances, and that's.

455
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:36,360
Speaker 4: What's been kind of the downfall of Barcelona in some respects.

456
00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 4: When they place team played teams that are good on

457
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 4: the counter, they can get at them and transition that

458
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 4: could strain together a couple of passes or play a

459
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 4: little direct over the top. That's where they've been vulnerable.

460
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 4: I think they can be vulnerable again here. I think

461
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 4: Viacano will get on the board. I'm a little bit

462
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 4: concerned about the Vacano defense against Barcelona, who should be

463
00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 4: putting up more offensive numbers than they have been based on,

464
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,159
Speaker 4: you know, the talent level they have and whatnot. But

465
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 4: the Voacano defense not terrible. This is going to be

466
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 4: their toughest test they've had yet, so we'll see how

467
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 4: it goes. But I think at plus one I'm willing

468
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 4: to take a shot on Vacano.

469
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 1: Vakano also in Madrid, so this is like a mini

470
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 1: mini Mini Mini outclassic Co. I'm actually many, yeah, very many.

471
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: I'm going to be joining you, but I'll take a

472
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,560
Speaker 1: little nibble on the money line. I want to just

473
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,760
Speaker 1: keep going against Barcelona. It was fun today and it'll

474
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:29,080
Speaker 1: be fun hopefully again on Wednesday. BJA, you're making it

475
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 1: three for three on the small Madrid team.

476
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, Magia three for three Falco place for

477
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 5: Viakano if you guys didn't know that, but I mean,

478
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,399
Speaker 5: great story. Seventh place right now in La Lego was

479
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 5: sixteen points in the first ten matches. Like Anthony mentioned,

480
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 5: their offensive metrics has been really good, you know, ninth

481
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 5: to non penalty expected goals for match fourth and crosses

482
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 5: completed in the eighteen yard box. And look Barcelona, we

483
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,679
Speaker 5: talked about it last week. The offensive dip since Messi

484
00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,359
Speaker 5: left is pretty drastic. You know, they're only averaging one

485
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 5: point seventy five expected goals per match and La League

486
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,720
Speaker 5: of this season win last year they average two point

487
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 5: two to one expected goals per match and Viacom has

488
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 5: actually been pretty good defensively, their top eight and non

489
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:10,560
Speaker 5: penalty expected goals allowed, big scoring chances allowed, shots per

490
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 5: ninety allowed and box century is allowed. So it's not

491
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 5: going to be just a breeze for Barcelona and to

492
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 5: Pie and company to just get in there and create

493
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 5: big time chances.

494
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:19,680
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm with you, guys.

495
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 6: I love by a kind of spread of plus one

496
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 6: at minus one fifteen.

497
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 4: The thing is, this Barcelona team just not great at

498
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 4: ball recoveries right now.

499
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:28,200
Speaker 2: You know, you watch them play when.

500
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 4: They lose the ball, they're they're often very out of

501
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 4: shape in terms of their positioning. They struggle with simple passing,

502
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 4: you know, breaking them apart very easily. They're not great

503
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 4: at ball winning. Sergio Buscatt's aging in the midfield. He's

504
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 4: their best ball winner and he has not been up

505
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 4: to snuff the last year and a half or two,

506
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 4: and that's why they've been so vulnerable. Still, you know,

507
00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 4: offers value in passing and still can win the ball,

508
00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 4: but not quite what he was. And the defensive guys

509
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:58,679
Speaker 4: you know in the center of the park just not

510
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,159
Speaker 4: not the Barcelona center back you typically expire. I mean,

511
00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 4: Gerard PK is still there, but you know, not what

512
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 4: he was. And so this is a very fragile Barcelona defense.

513
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're really missing Patrick right now in the midfield.

514
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 5: I mean He provides all of those things that Sergio

515
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 5: Buosketz really can't going forward. So without him in the lineup,

516
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 5: it's just it's really tough for Barcelona to have that

517
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:21,840
Speaker 5: connecting play going forward.

518
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: Yeah and look, I mean we just said it. They

519
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 1: are coming off lost to Real Madrid. This could just

520
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 1: be a letdown spot against, like you said, Anthony, a

521
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 1: team that will be playing in their Super Bowl. Fun fact,

522
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,239
Speaker 1: I've at PK. I don't know if you saw that

523
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,040
Speaker 1: balloon World Cup viral video that was making the rounds

524
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,520
Speaker 1: last year, but that is his He invested in the

525
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 1: balloon World Cup. He started that whole thing, so good

526
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 1: for him.

527
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:44,080
Speaker 6: Sorry to Shira.

528
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 1: Yeah he is. Let's move on. Yeah he said he's

529
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 1: had He's like quite the life. We'll move on to

530
00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 1: the other team in Madrid. That's Real Madrid. There minus

531
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 1: two to seventy five favorites against Osasuna, who are seven

532
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 1: to one on the money line the draw plus four fifty.

533
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,879
Speaker 1: This is a Wednesday three point thirty pm kickoff. BJ.

534
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: Do you think Real Madrid just carries the momentum from

535
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,840
Speaker 1: their winning l Classico and just stomps this Osa soon

536
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:09,680
Speaker 1: a squad.

537
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 5: I do You know, we always talk about coming into

538
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 5: the l Classico where Real Michri is just running incredibly

539
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 5: hot defense or offensively, and they did it again against Barcelona.

540
00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 5: You know, they've scored twenty four goals off of sixteen

541
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:21,879
Speaker 5: point five eight expected goals.

542
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 6: But this Osasuna. It's a nice story.

543
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 5: Right now, they're in sixth place, but I don't know

544
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 5: if they're actually as good as sixth place.

545
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 6: In La Liga.

546
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 5: I mean, they're only have a plus point eighty six

547
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 5: non penalty expected goal differential in ten matches, and they've

548
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,959
Speaker 5: been really fortunate offensively because they're averaging under one non

549
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 5: penalty expected goal for match, and they've scored six of

550
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 5: their fourteen goals from set pieces. And defensively, look, they've

551
00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 5: been really good point nine to four expected goals allowed

552
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 5: for match, the reason they're up in sixth place, But

553
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 5: they haven't faced difficult offenses at all. Eight of their

554
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,200
Speaker 5: ten opponents that they've faced are in the bottom half

555
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,760
Speaker 5: of La Liga and expected goals for so facing the

556
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,119
Speaker 5: best offense in Spain right now is going to be

557
00:25:00,160 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 5: a massive step up and competition that I'm not sure

558
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,719
Speaker 5: they're really ready for. So I like Real Madrid minus

559
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 5: one and a half at plus one oh five to

560
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 5: win this by multiple goals, Real Madrid.

561
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 1: I just feel like this is probably the start of

562
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 1: them maybe running away with this league, which I hope

563
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: they don't because we will be cheering for associate DoD

564
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: on this podcast. And speaking of which, they are taking

565
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: on South the Ego, who are plus two hundred home underdogs.

566
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 1: We also see a Dodd coming back plus one forty

567
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 1: the draw plus two forty five. This is a Thursday

568
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: one pm kickoff, Anthony, are you gonna pen another love

569
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: letter to real associate DoD?

570
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: Why not?

571
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 4: Absolute heart attacks I had today or on Sunday when

572
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 4: Socidd went up two hl off of two, we'll say somewhat.

573
00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 4: You know, they had a great start, kind of struggled

574
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 4: into the first half, then had a great free kick,

575
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:49,359
Speaker 4: went up two nohl.

576
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: I was like, we're golden. All of a sudden it's

577
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:51,880
Speaker 2: two two and.

578
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 4: I'm like, okay, well is up Letty gonna steal a

579
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 4: goal in stoppage time and you know, screw our plus

580
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 4: a half.

581
00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 2: They did not Socie DoD cash that one. I like

582
00:25:59,280 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 2: them again?

583
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:03,200
Speaker 4: Here drawno bet minus one thirty right now, we actually

584
00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 4: don't have as a recording of recording this on Sunday night.

585
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,919
Speaker 4: We don't know the result of Seltavego's Monday match, but

586
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 4: the fact that they haven't even played yet, they're going

587
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 4: to have short rest, so one last day of rest

588
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,879
Speaker 4: to rest and recover for this match. The one thing

589
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 4: I like about Socio DoD is that the underline numbers

590
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 4: on them third best team in the league when it

591
00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 4: comes to expect a goal difference. They're also the third

592
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 4: best in even game states, so when you factor out,

593
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: you know, some extraneous stuff. Their third best Celta Vigo's

594
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 4: significantly worse. They are due for a little bit of

595
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,919
Speaker 4: offensive regression in attack. They may score some goals, but

596
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 4: I think this is going to be a Socio DoD

597
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 4: win away from home. Could selta Ego in the bottom

598
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: six in expected goal difference in even game states as well,

599
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 4: So I think they're a little bit undervalued, And so

600
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 4: I'll take sociodd on the Drawno bet line minus one.

601
00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 1: Thirty Sociadad twenty five to one right now to win

602
00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:57,119
Speaker 1: La Liga. That's behind Real Madrid, who are odds on

603
00:26:57,160 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 1: minus one fifty favorites at Letty plus two to seventy five.

604
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: Seville plus seven fifty, Barcelona also plus seven to fifty.

605
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 1: Don't know how you can get behind that number. And

606
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: we'll move on to at Letti, a team that is

607
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 1: becoming a bogie team of years Anthony. They're taking on Levante,

608
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 1: who are plus five fifty home underdogs at Letti minus

609
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,479
Speaker 1: one seventy five. The draw is plus three ten. This

610
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,399
Speaker 1: is a Thursday kickoff three thirty pm. Are you going

611
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 1: to try to beat Diego Simioni one more time?

612
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: Yes, i am.

613
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 4: I'm going in to a derivative though, because the Anletti

614
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 4: attacking numbers are actually trending up a little bit. This

615
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 4: is just a pure fate of this defense, which I

616
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,120
Speaker 4: don't think is nearly as good as years pass. It's

617
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,639
Speaker 4: not as good as last year, which not only are

618
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:42,679
Speaker 4: they due for defensive regression, their defense just isn't as

619
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 4: good this year as it was last year. Levante's team

620
00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 4: total is minus one thirty over a half. If you

621
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 4: remember last year, you date back to when Anletti was

622
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 4: winning every game. At the beginning of the season, it

623
00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:55,639
Speaker 4: looked like they were gonna run away with La Liga.

624
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,199
Speaker 4: There was one team that got two consecutive results. There

625
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 4: was a made up game early in the season and

626
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,879
Speaker 4: then there was the actual fixture play, but it was

627
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 4: supposed to right around December January that got result, got

628
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 4: a result two times against this Aletti team. Everybody was like,

629
00:28:10,840 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 4: oh boy, they're going to blow the title. And it

630
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 4: was Levante who got consecutive results against them.

631
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 2: So I think this is a good matchup for Lavonte.

632
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 4: They've had success in the past and I think this

633
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:24,719
Speaker 4: Aletti defense continues to be overrated. I'm going to look

634
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 4: to fade them again. I think i'd LETTI will concede here.

635
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 4: Don't want to play the plus one necessarily because I

636
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 4: think Aletti will be able to find some success here.

637
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 4: But I think Levonte gets on the board. So Leavonte

638
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 4: team total over a half is minus one thirty.

639
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: And that'll wrap up the Spanish part of the program.

640
00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: And now we'll move to France for an interesting one.

641
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: I don't know if you guys remember, but a couple

642
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: months ago, Nice and Marseille played a game at Alian's Rivieria.

643
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 1: It got out of hand. Fans ended up on the

644
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: pitch attacking Dmitri Paiet. They were throwing things at him

645
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:01,160
Speaker 1: and the Marseille squad started fighting back. I mean, just

646
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: an absolute otherworldly site. These two teams will meet again

647
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 1: in the makeup for that. Niece is plus one forty

648
00:29:08,480 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 1: at home, Marseille plus one eighty five the draw of

649
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: plus two sixty. I've got nothing on this game. You

650
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 1: two are on opposite sides. We'll start with BJ who

651
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 1: is backing the home team laid out.

652
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 6: Yeah, those Niese fans weren't very nice.

653
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 3: To the Marseille fans back in late August.

654
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,800
Speaker 5: But now listen, this news team is really, really good.

655
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 5: They're currently in third place. They have massively improved from

656
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 5: last season, mainly to the fact that they have a

657
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 5: new manager, Christoph Galtier, who guided LIL to the league

658
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 5: and title last year. And what he did was he

659
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 5: switched the formation to his padded four four to two

660
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 5: that he employed it at LIL and from Nice playing

661
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 5: a four to three three last year. Now not all

662
00:29:45,280 --> 00:29:48,520
Speaker 5: four two twos for four to twos have to be defensive,

663
00:29:48,560 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 5: and NIE is the best offensive team in France right now.

664
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 3: Based on expected goals.

665
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 5: They've created twenty two point five eight expected goals in

666
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 5: ten matches and are the number one team in France

667
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 5: in big scoring chances as well and gals hare. Hal

668
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 5: So has Nies playing pretty much close to the defensive

669
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 5: level that he had Lil playing at last season. Nie

670
00:30:04,560 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 5: is second in France and non penalty expected goals allowed

671
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 5: per match, third and shots loud for ninety and fourth

672
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 5: and big scoring chances allowed. And listen this Marseille team.

673
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 5: They're over performing once again. Last year they only had

674
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 5: about a plus two point five expect the goal differential,

675
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 5: but somehow finished in fifth place. This season, they will

676
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 5: plus one point four to seven non penalty expected goal

677
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 5: deffential through ten matches. And even though they're in fourth place,

678
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 5: their eighth in non penalty expected goals allowed per match,

679
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:30,920
Speaker 5: ninth and shots allowed for ninety twelfth and big scoring

680
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 5: chances allowed. And offensively they're running hot. They scored eighteen

681
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 5: goals off of fifteen point six expected goals, so there

682
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 5: will be some offensive aggression coming. In their last three

683
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,640
Speaker 5: matches against Lil, Lorient and PSG, they lost the expected

684
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 5: goals battle combined seven point sixty six three point five

685
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 5: to six. I love this Kniee team. I love the

686
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 5: price at plus one forty. I have them projected at

687
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:51,480
Speaker 5: plus one ten. So give me the home team to

688
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 5: grab all three points and let's hope this one doesn't

689
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 5: end in a fight.

690
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is all about Niee regression. Look, I know

691
00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: they have a new manager. I know they're playing a

692
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: lot better in terms of expected goals. I understand that.

693
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 2: I'm not buying that a team that was mid.

694
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 4: Table in France last year as all of a sudden,

695
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 4: this top three for even you know, the numbers say

696
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 4: best team in France. They absolutely stole a win against

697
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 4: Leon where they were completely outplayed for the first half,

698
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 4: there was a red card. They turned it around. Good

699
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:22,000
Speaker 4: win for them, but just not totally buying this. The

700
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 4: reality is they're first and expected goals, but they're twelfth

701
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 4: and entries into the box. They're fourteenth and crosses into

702
00:31:27,440 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 4: the box, So like, how are they creating all these

703
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 4: great chances? I'm not sure that'll continue, and so I'm

704
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 4: going to look to play against them, and it's my

705
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 4: Marsillo boys. And look, BJ and I are going to

706
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 4: disagree on Marseille. You know that's fine. Marseille. The offense

707
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 4: isn't bad. I mean, they're they're third in shots, they're

708
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 4: fourth in XG for ninety and yes they struggled against PSG.

709
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: That's I don't consider that an indictment against them.

710
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 4: And so Marseille here boollied off of a big result

711
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 4: against PSG. We did cash that ticket plus one today

712
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 4: in another little game. I think they're bullied off of

713
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 4: that of that result. I think this is a this

714
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 4: is absolutely an all in spot for Marseille. They'll absolutely

715
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 4: know what happened. And remember a few weeks back when

716
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 4: when the Knese fans are ready to, uh you know,

717
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 4: go after them, and it's a little south coast uh

718
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 4: you know, French Riviera Darby, and I think, look, I

719
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 4: think nice, like I mentioned, maybe they are a top

720
00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 4: four team in France. I'll believe that when I see it,

721
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 4: I will bet against that and I'll buy the Marseille

722
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 4: trending up team with really good young talent and a

723
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 4: manager who I really like in Sanpaioli.

724
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 2: So we'll see how this goes.

725
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 4: Marseille Janovett at plus one ten and I think we're

726
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 4: going to disagree on Marseille like every week, so we

727
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 4: can just make this a thing.

728
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:41,840
Speaker 3: It's a it's fine, that's fine.

729
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 2: I'm happy to do it every single week alone.

730
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,360
Speaker 1: It's it's it's appropriate that you two are disagreeing on

731
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:51,680
Speaker 1: this match considering what just happened between these two clubs.

732
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:55,720
Speaker 1: Let's move on to our favorite portion of the show.

733
00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 1: This is the part where I have to warn you

734
00:32:58,040 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 1: these bets are not for the fan of heart. This

735
00:33:00,840 --> 00:33:04,600
Speaker 1: is the underdog money line part lay for the midweek matches,

736
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,640
Speaker 1: and this is a whopper. This is an absolute whopper.

737
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 1: I'll get us kicked off. We talked about it at length.

738
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:14,840
Speaker 1: I like Terrino plus five fifty, good defensive team. Hopefully

739
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 1: they turned this match against AC Milan into a coin

740
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,239
Speaker 1: flip and maybe you're able to nick a goal and

741
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: steal the three points plus five fifty to get us started. BJ,

742
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: where are you going for your favorite underdog.

743
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 5: Gory Bicano plus four to seventy five against Barcelona? I mean,

744
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 5: this is a huge letdown spot for Barcelona traveling play

745
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 5: a Wednesday match after all, Klasico, the offensive numbers since

746
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 5: Messi left are quite significant, and this Biocona team is

747
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 5: really good, especially at creating big scoring chances, and defensively

748
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 5: they're in the top half of La Legan pretty much

749
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 5: every single metrics, so this is not just a Barcelona

750
00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 5: rollover basically in the first you know, and on a

751
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 5: Wednesday in Spain. So I love this Viacano team. They're

752
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 5: a great story since promotion. Love them at plus four

753
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:00,719
Speaker 5: seventy five, Anthony, this one up.

754
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,479
Speaker 4: You guys did your podcast prep before I did, so

755
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 4: you guys took the two that I was looking at

756
00:34:05,200 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 4: with Torino and Biacano, so I can get behind those two.

757
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 4: But I'm gonna get behind Fiorentina, who I like more

758
00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:12,280
Speaker 4: and more by the minute in this matchup against Lotzio.

759
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 2: I mentioned this when we talked about the match specifically.

760
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 4: The Fiorentina attack is really bad in terms of the

761
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 4: expected goals numbers, but the ball progression numbers and the

762
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:23,320
Speaker 4: chances created numbers suggest there.

763
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: May be some improvement.

764
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:27,240
Speaker 4: I do not think Fiorentina will finish with the worst

765
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 4: attack or even one of the bottom five attacks in Siria, so.

766
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 2: Trending up there.

767
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,320
Speaker 4: The Lozzio defense is due for a ton of defensive regression.

768
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 4: The underlying numbers on them are really bad, and Lotzio's

769
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 4: defense without the ball you know, sorry, loves to have

770
00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:43,360
Speaker 4: the ball without the ball not very good and in

771
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,880
Speaker 4: even game states this year, Fiorentina has actually been one

772
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,280
Speaker 4: of the best teams in the league. In Syria, Lozzio

773
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 4: has been the worst. So I like Fiorentina on the

774
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 4: money line at plus three twenty.

775
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: The odds for this three leg money line parlay one

776
00:34:58,040 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six to one. That is a little

777
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: bit north of what Arsenal is to win the Premier League.

778
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 1: They are one fifty to one to win the Premier

779
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 1: League season. Yeah, I mean, come on.

780
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 2: Fading, we almost got it last week.

781
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 1: We did almost get it last week. This week we

782
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 1: upped the anti fading Barcelona, AC Milan and Lazio. What

783
00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:20,000
Speaker 1: better way to spend a Tuesday or Wednesday afternoon. All right,

784
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,239
Speaker 1: let's wrap this show up with our favorite bets of

785
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 1: the midweek. Once again, I'll get it started. I like

786
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 1: Roma minus one against Kagliari. They're plus one fifty on

787
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 1: that line right now. Like I said, this is a

788
00:35:32,480 --> 00:35:35,880
Speaker 1: good defensive team. I don't really think Kaglieri can not

789
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:38,920
Speaker 1: only challenge this this defense, but they won't also present

790
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: much of a problem to Roma's offense, which has been

791
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 1: pretty good. So I think that this is a good

792
00:35:43,640 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: matchup to back a goal line I'm really hopeful that

793
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,640
Speaker 1: Roma is buoyed off a really good performance against Napoli

794
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,479
Speaker 1: and Josie Marino man, who else would you rather back? Right? BJ?

795
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: What is your favorite bet this week?

796
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,280
Speaker 3: Yeah? I like Nice plus one forty.

797
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 5: I mean the changes that Christoph Gualtier has made since

798
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 5: coming over from LIL have just been incredible, switching to

799
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 5: the four to four to two, having Nice averaging close

800
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 5: to two point twenty five expected goals per match, and

801
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 5: defensively having them playing at the same.

802
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,080
Speaker 6: Level he had LIL playing at last season.

803
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 5: You know, have top five and non penalty expected goals

804
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 5: allowed for match, third and shots allowed per ninety and

805
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 5: fourth and big scoring chances allowed.

806
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 6: And this Marseille team is just completely overrated.

807
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 5: They were overrated last year and they're overperforming again this year.

808
00:36:24,680 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 5: Only a plus one point four to seven non penalty

809
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:29,640
Speaker 5: expected goal deffential through to ten matches, and defensively, I

810
00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:32,360
Speaker 5: mean eighth and non penalty expect goes allowed twelfth and

811
00:36:32,360 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 5: big scoring chances allowed.

812
00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: I love Nice in this spot.

813
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,359
Speaker 5: I haven't projected at plus one ten, so love them

814
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:39,240
Speaker 5: at plus one forty.

815
00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,719
Speaker 1: Anthony, bring this show home with your favorite bet of

816
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: the midweek.

817
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 4: Greno plus one at minus one ten ac Milan started

818
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:51,240
Speaker 4: the season with some really impressive performances, some really impressive results.

819
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 4: They're starting to look a little bit more like the

820
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 4: team that I expected them to be coming into the season.

821
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,399
Speaker 2: Part of that is injuries. Part of that has been

822
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,520
Speaker 2: some suspensions. They've had some guys in and out of

823
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: the lineup. They haven't really played a continuous team. But

824
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 2: this is all about to Reno's defense.

825
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 4: Torino doesn't apply a ton of ball pressure, but they

826
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 4: are excellent defensively across the board, top five and pretty

827
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 4: much every defensive metric you can look at.

828
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 2: They have been tested.

829
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 4: Games against Juventus, games against Napoli, those were some pretty

830
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 4: tough games for their opponents, and so I expect them

831
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 4: to keep Milan out of transition, make this a very

832
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:23,800
Speaker 4: difficult game.

833
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 2: For them to be broken down. May even steal a.

834
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 4: Goal because Milan's defense has been not quite as good

835
00:37:28,680 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 4: in the last couple of matches, and I think that

836
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:33,239
Speaker 4: at plus one it's good value here.

837
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 3: All right.

838
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 1: That'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal. Be

839
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 1: sure to come back on Thursday as we break down

840
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 1: the Premier League and the rest of the big leagues

841
00:37:41,280 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 1: in Europe over the weekend, and please remember to leave

842
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 1: a review and a rating and drop your Twitter handle

843
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 1: game said review and rating to enter contest to win

844
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 1: a soccer jersey of your choice for BJ Cunningham and

845
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 1: Anthony Dubundo. I'm Mike Aliba. We'll see you on Thursday.

846
00:38:00,160 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: The Sandar Surps flat sand is dust A flash sound

847
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 1: of l Stone