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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pot All right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen hony, twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the Chicks block the college Football World standard.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he stumbled, and football the lateral turn

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Speaker 2: a corner on the inside, don't you the lad.

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Speaker 4: Table off the veil of the night.

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Speaker 2: It's not the side of the dog in the fighting,

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Speaker 2: it's the side of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett MGM. This is the

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Speaker 3: college football Week two betting preview. I'm stuck, he enjoining

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Speaker 3: me as always is Colin Wilson. Ready to roll my man.

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Speaker 2: Listen, Stucky and I don't compare notes. I already know

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Speaker 2: that you and I have a disagreement on the biggest

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Speaker 2: game of the weekend, but I love so many underdogs

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Speaker 2: this weekend. I really need your temperature on a lot

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Speaker 2: of this because I'm like, I just can't love all

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Speaker 2: these dogs, right, So I'm ready to get in and

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Speaker 2: chop it up.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, by the way, one thing we did disagree

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Speaker 3: on that I'll take a second to gloat about is

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Speaker 3: your parlay of college football playoff? Is that dead already? Clemson? LSU?

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Speaker 3: Are they dead?

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Speaker 2: How bad is that Clemson offense? It looked like the

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Speaker 2: offense that Navy wants to run, dink and dunk out

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Speaker 2: in the flats two yards down the field. Let the

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Speaker 2: wide receiver do the work like and Kate Nick? How many?

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Speaker 2: How many quarterback draws? Is Kate Clubnick gonna run? We

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Speaker 2: just ship DJU across the country.

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Speaker 3: Got three former Clemson quarterbacks that are now starting at

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Speaker 3: the FBS level that were behind club Nick. You got

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Speaker 3: one at UMass, one at Southern Miss and in Oregon State.

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Speaker 3: As I've always said, this is the DJU podcast. He's

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Speaker 3: great to see Dabo go down.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I know what losing feels like.

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Speaker 2: I got a very clear picture of that.

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Speaker 5: It's much better to win.

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Speaker 3: Meanwhile, we saw Florida State, their biggest competitor in the

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Speaker 3: ACC do so and who was one of the most

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Speaker 3: important players of that game against LSU a wide receiver

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Speaker 3: they got in the spring and Coleman. Clemson could have

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Speaker 3: really used him, and he's falling behind the eight ball.

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Speaker 3: Just like in betting. It's really like in any walk

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Speaker 3: of life. But if you're six, you can be successful,

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Speaker 3: and Dabo certainly has multiple national championships. But if you

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Speaker 3: don't adapt, this is so true in betting, you're you're

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Speaker 3: done and you will fall behind so fast. So we'll see.

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Speaker 3: Dabo did go out and get an offensive coordinator, but

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Speaker 3: it didn't look like he gave him full rain right

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Speaker 3: on the offense. So we'll see if he does that.

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Speaker 3: We'll see if he embraces the transporportal. Otherwise he's on

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Speaker 3: a fast track to Tubberville.

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Speaker 2: There you go. See there, we had a great conversation.

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Speaker 3: We do have a lot of marquee games, which is

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Speaker 3: where we will start.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups.

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Speaker 2: We'll all end up bedding for week two.

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Speaker 3: We'll get the six marquee games. Let's start off with

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Speaker 3: the biggest game of the weekend. Texas Alabama Alabama seven.

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Speaker 3: Still find seven and a half's out there if you

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Speaker 3: search hard enough, as Alway, shop around for the best

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Speaker 3: number over under fifty four? Is this the game you

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Speaker 3: disagree with me on?

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Speaker 2: Absolutely? Like, I wow, I saw you have Texas and

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Speaker 2: I was like, oo, here we go.

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Speaker 3: If you'd like to follow me if you see any

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Speaker 3: seven and half scoop that up. I'm coming into the season.

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Speaker 3: I power rated these teams as close as you can

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Speaker 3: get to even, so obviously I have Alabama favored in

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Speaker 3: this game. Take into account home field advantage, and Alabama

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Speaker 3: certainly has a significant home field advantage. By the way,

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Speaker 3: this is only the third time that they will be

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Speaker 3: a favorite of under a touchdown since twenty eleven, and

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Speaker 3: it's actually never happened in the saban Era against a

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Speaker 3: non conference opponent, so rare to see Alabama as well.

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Speaker 3: I should say they were a favorite under a touchdown

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Speaker 3: seven or last. Right now it's sitting at seven. Curious

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Speaker 3: to see where this goes. But number one, this is

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Speaker 3: a numbers play for me. So I had these teams

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Speaker 3: jett even and after last weekend like Texas. Yeah, and

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Speaker 3: last weekend I faded Texas and cash and I bet

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Speaker 3: on Alabama but who covered and Texas didn't. But Texas

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Speaker 3: kind of just was like, all right, we their defense

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Speaker 3: looked really good. Yeah, they won. They were up thirty

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Speaker 3: seven to three late. So I didn't do anything to

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Speaker 3: the Texas power rating, and I also didn't do anything

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Speaker 3: to the Alabama power rating. I watched every snap of

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Speaker 3: that game, and if you look, you might say, and

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Speaker 3: I was super down of Middle Tennessee. I think they stink.

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Speaker 3: And they lost their two best fendozos to quarterback, top

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Speaker 3: three pass catchers, negative aggression candidate. But early in that game,

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Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee absolutely just kept shooting themselves in the foot.

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Speaker 3: I mean they had personal fouls, they had a big

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Speaker 3: completion ineligible man down field, another big completion, chop block,

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Speaker 3: just drive killers. Then they drove sixty yards, missed a

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Speaker 3: field goal, and then all of a sudden, you know,

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Speaker 3: then they drive again, they throw an interception, and then

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Speaker 3: before you know it, the game slips away. And obviously

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Speaker 3: Alabama's way more talented, but Middle Tennessee was like showing

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Speaker 3: flashes of being out able to actually move the ball,

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Speaker 3: which I didn't think they would be able to do,

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Speaker 3: even though it doesn't show up in the box score

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Speaker 3: because they kept shooting themselves in the foot. I was

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Speaker 3: impressed with Alabama in that they were buttoned up. Like

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Speaker 3: last year we saw penalty issues, there was none of that.

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Speaker 3: So I think Saban has this team ready, But I

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Speaker 3: don't think we can really take much from what nol

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Speaker 3: Road did against Middle Tennessee, to be honest, So I

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Speaker 3: look at this game, you know, so I think these

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Speaker 3: rosters from a talent perspective are dead even and they

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Speaker 3: they both both teams have questions at quarterback. Even though

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Speaker 3: I have Texas quarterback rated higher because of his skill set,

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Speaker 3: the one thing that worries me is ken Ewers connect

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Speaker 3: them his downfield throws. Last year, he was sub forty

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Speaker 3: percent on throws that traveled fifteen plus yards. Last week

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Speaker 3: he went oh of seven on deep balls missed. Not

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Speaker 3: all of them are his fault, but he missed two

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Speaker 3: wide of them throws to Worthy, and his footwork still

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Speaker 3: looks a little wonky on that, which is I'm so

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Speaker 3: concerned about. So I have to play the number here.

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Speaker 3: I also think that the Texas interior defensive line Alabama's

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Speaker 3: gonna have to I think rely on the run game here.

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Speaker 3: I think Texas has some guys that can they can

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Speaker 3: actually keep up with Miro speedwise. I think their interior

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Speaker 3: defensive line can have success. And then all those weapons

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Speaker 3: on the outside against Obama secondary that lost a trio

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Speaker 3: guys in the NFL and now has two potential starters hurt.

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Speaker 3: It's very key to keep an eye on the injury

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Speaker 3: report for Alabama moving forward. I don't think you're going

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Speaker 3: to get really any information from SABAN leading up until

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Speaker 3: game time, so we won't really know. Apparently, they were

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Speaker 3: able to like practice in limited fashion, so that could

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Speaker 3: be big because they were already replacing a lot of guys.

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Speaker 3: And now if you're missed down two starters against this

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Speaker 3: talented pass catching group, that could be problematic. So I

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Speaker 3: actually see a couple advantages for Until Milrae can show

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Speaker 3: me that he can pass against a really good defense,

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Speaker 3: I'll make him prove that he can beat this Texas

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Speaker 3: team by more than one possession. But I will say

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Speaker 3: the viewers downfield passing does concern me. And if Alabama

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Speaker 3: is one of the smartest staffs in all of college football,

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Speaker 3: they're not dumb. They know that they watched the TCU

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Speaker 3: film last year. That's what TCU did, and they're going

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Speaker 3: to make yours try to beat them beat And if

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Speaker 3: he can't then gonna be super problematic. If he can

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Speaker 3: early on, I think Texas wins this game, it'll open

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Speaker 3: up everything underneath. And but we haven't seen We still

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Speaker 3: haven't seen yours do it even if he can't hit

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Speaker 3: those downfield passes. I think this game, I would like

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Speaker 3: the under. I think Bama wants to play this to

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Speaker 3: an under, try to just pound Texas with their rushing attack,

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Speaker 3: use Milroe's legs. But if viewers can open this up,

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Speaker 3: then you know, I think that Texas will be money

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Speaker 3: and so will be over. So that's what I think.

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Speaker 3: The key to the game. From a number's perspective, I

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Speaker 3: had to take Texas. What are your thoughts.

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Speaker 2: Well on the total. I mean, if I'm waiting to

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Speaker 2: see if Malachi Moore and Jalen Key you're out. If

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Speaker 2: they're out, I would like the over a lot more.

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Speaker 2: Texas is not the one that wants to slow it down,

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Speaker 2: grind it up, make it a physical game in the

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Speaker 2: trench and punch each other in the face. So if

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Speaker 2: Texas is gonna win or cover, the spread is probably

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Speaker 2: gonna go over. But Alabama wants this to be a

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Speaker 2: slow grind And you know, I agree with everything that

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Speaker 2: you said, absolutely everything, and my thinking, I mean, I'm

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Speaker 2: power eat this game three point four in favor of Alabama.

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Speaker 2: What do I have Alabama's home field advantage three point

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Speaker 2: four I have these teams dead on in power ratings.

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Speaker 2: So it really took you.

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Speaker 3: You're right with me, You're right, yeah.

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Speaker 2: I was in this line of thinking all week, and

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Speaker 2: then you know, me going into coach speak and listening

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Speaker 2: to pressers and doing x's and o's and doing analytics.

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Speaker 2: It really changed. Saban comes into the presser and he says,

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Speaker 2: I liked our physicality. I liked our execution. I haven't

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Speaker 2: really heard him say that all of last year. You

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Speaker 2: mentioned the penalties, only two penalties. They like led the

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Speaker 2: nation in penalties last year. They had what fifteen against Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: They had I don't know a dozen against Texas, really

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Speaker 2: a problem for them, they only had two. You go

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Speaker 2: over to stark Side, he said something that was so key.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if he just let it slip or

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Speaker 2: maybe he did it on purpose. I don't think he did,

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Speaker 2: but he said, we must improve our past russ integrity.

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Speaker 2: A mobile quarterback would have hurt Texas today. And so

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Speaker 2: you get back to what Jalen Milroe is right. All

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Speaker 2: he has to do is take a three step drop,

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Speaker 2: see those guys go, and he's off, And I think

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Speaker 2: that's exactly what's going to happen in this game. So

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Speaker 2: when Sark says I need pass rush integrity, that means

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Speaker 2: harass the quarterback, but stay in a lane. And if

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Speaker 2: they don't do that, and that Alabama offensive line is

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Speaker 2: able to guide those rushers in a certain way, Milroe

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Speaker 2: is going to be off to the races. And you know,

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Speaker 2: we're at this crucial moment where we don't know if

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Speaker 2: Jalen Milroe is Jalen Hurts or if he's just gonna

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Speaker 2: be another run of quarterbacks at Alabama that we're going

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Speaker 2: to forget about because if fumbles can't throw the ball

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Speaker 2: one dimensional, we're gonna find out really fast. But there

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Speaker 2: are things in the numbers that really turned my head

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Speaker 2: to Alabama's way. I'm not gonna get into Alabama middle

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Speaker 2: Tennessee State. I mean, Alabama was only seventeen plays in

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Speaker 2: passing downs, like they dominated whatever. It's the Texas offensive

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Speaker 2: line against Rice that really troubled me. I mean nobody's

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Speaker 2: talking about this. I mean, listen, the trenches on trenches

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Speaker 2: are good on good, I get it, that's what this is.

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Speaker 2: Teams are load with NFL talent, but go into the numbers.

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Speaker 2: Rice stuffed Texas's rushing attempts at the national average. I

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Speaker 2: didn't expect that the Owls generated eight tackles for loss.

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Speaker 2: What when did they become so dominant? Each of the

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Speaker 2: running backs struggled to get the ground game going for Texas.

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Speaker 2: If you take the thirty two yard out by thirty

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Speaker 2: two yard runout by CJ. Baxter, he had four rushers

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Speaker 2: for six yards. The rest of them inefficient, couldn't get

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Speaker 2: more than two yards a flop. The offensive line had

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Speaker 2: problems in protection, and the offensive line got dominated by

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Speaker 2: Rice in run stuffs and tackles for loss. So I

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Speaker 2: was really shocked by that. That got me on to

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Speaker 2: Bama and listen, I do power rate a lower. I

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Speaker 2: am playing Bama for one unit. I think the Bama

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Speaker 2: front seven and Milrow are the difference in this. He's

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Speaker 2: going to olay them and take off down the field.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, if Texas has to run the

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Speaker 3: ball in this game, then there I would agree that

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Speaker 3: they're in trouble. It's it's gonna come down to yours.

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Speaker 3: If yours hits the two deep balls to Worthy, we

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Speaker 3: is wide open. He finishes twenty one to thirty for

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Speaker 3: three hundred and forty five yards, five touchdowns, no picks,

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Speaker 3: and everyone is like, whoa, he missed them, which he's

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Speaker 3: done consistently. Can he hit them this week? That's that's

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Speaker 3: what it's gonna come down to. And you're gonna know

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Speaker 3: in the first quarter because then if that happens, the

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Speaker 3: Bama secondary, which had to replace a lot, could be

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Speaker 3: down two starters. Then they got to they have to

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Speaker 3: loosen up, they have to play back, and then there's

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Speaker 3: a lot of space. There's more space underneath for a

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Speaker 3: lot of these weapons. That's the key to the game.

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Speaker 3: I think you got to take the seven and a half.

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Speaker 3: You disagree. We will find out on Saturday night, which

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Speaker 3: should be a wonderful atmosphere and all around great Twitter game.

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Speaker 2: Look, there's a lot of distractions out there.

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Speaker 3: Guys have to choose to focus on the right thing.

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Speaker 2: Can't worry about rat poison and that's a challenge.

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Speaker 3: Too many times. We've gotten Texas at noon right like

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Speaker 3: everyone will be a little little liquored up for a

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Speaker 3: big Texas Alabama game at night. I have to call

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Speaker 3: to get my cable changed. Luckily I have my wife

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Speaker 3: at the bar as YouTube TV, so I have YouTube TV,

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Speaker 3: but it's on at the lay. I keep reading nightmare

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Speaker 3: stories about people trying to cancel their spectrum, and it's

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Speaker 3: like you're on hold for like eight hours. So I'm

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Speaker 3: putting it off for as long as i can. All Right,

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Speaker 3: let's move say in the Big twelve, let's talk a

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Speaker 3: little Baylor Utah. Did you say Ute?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 3: Ute? Utah is sitting at a seven and a half

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Speaker 3: point favorite over under forty seven and a half has

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Speaker 3: come down from I think. I think of the early

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Speaker 3: low limited openers were fifty one. I agree with this undermove.

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Speaker 3: Big time quarterback uncertainty in this game. We know that

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Speaker 3: Cam Rising didn't play for Utah, and Utah does have

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Speaker 3: a little extra rest in preparation heading into this game.

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Speaker 3: He's been fully cleared, he's going to travel. From everything

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Speaker 3: I've read, it seems like he wants to play, but

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Speaker 3: it's not confirmed yet. Utah did win without him against Florida.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure they can keep that going, and the

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Speaker 3: element of surprise with the running packages is no longer there.

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Speaker 3: They're gonna need Rising this season. Does the does the

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Speaker 3: Utah staff say like, look, we might be able to

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Speaker 3: get this game without him, or we just want to

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Speaker 3: make sure he's fully healthy for Pact all play. I

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Speaker 3: don't know. I'm curious to get your thoughts there. But

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Speaker 3: the biggest question is with Baylor. Blake Shapin is not

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Speaker 3: going to play. He's going to miss a couple weeks

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Speaker 3: with an injury after they stunningly lost to Texas State

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Speaker 3: in the opener. Baylor was a four touchdown favor and

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Speaker 3: they went down forty two to thirty one. So from

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Speaker 3: that game, so on my notes for that game, we're very,

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Speaker 3: very concerning for Baylor. The quarterback, by the way, for

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Speaker 3: Baylor is going to be Sawyer Robertson, who transferred for

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Speaker 3: Mississippi State. Mike Leech recruit. TCU actually wanted him as well.

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Speaker 2: He almost won the job.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, almost won the job. He's got a lot of

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Speaker 3: arm town, not a lot of experience. So this is

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Speaker 3: a great bi low cell high spot, like utaghgets Florida,

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Speaker 3: which just shooting themselves in the foot. I don't know

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Speaker 3: if I can get there on Baylor, especially if I

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Speaker 3: don't think if if I don't know it, because I

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Speaker 3: feel like Rising is leaning towards playing from what I've read.

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Speaker 3: If Rising isn't playing, I would bet Baylor here but

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Speaker 3: there was so many concerning things with Baylor. They missed

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Speaker 3: their big nose tackle who's now in the NFL. Their

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Speaker 3: secondary is very raw. They got torched, torched by Texas State,

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Speaker 3: and Texas State which has little Zappi you know, Zapi

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Speaker 3: hour reference.

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Speaker 1: In the pot Bailey Zappi.

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Speaker 3: Zapie Western Kentucky vibes with like, hey, look a whole

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Speaker 3: new offense is coming from the FCS level, and they

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Speaker 3: got but they brought TJ. Finley and who could never

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Speaker 3: throw the ball, who just ripped apart, ripped apart. Baylor

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Speaker 3: secondary twenty two to thirty for three hundred and three touchdowns,

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Speaker 3: ten ten yards per past. And the most concerning thing

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Speaker 3: to me is the Baylor offensive line. The Baylor offensive line,

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Speaker 3: which was lost a lot of snaps, got pushed around,

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Speaker 3: pushed around by the Texas State defensive front. They were

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Speaker 3: in the backfield right away on countless, countless times, over

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Speaker 3: and over again, just into the backfield. So that is

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Speaker 3: extremely concerning because then you're going to go up against

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Speaker 3: Utah's defensive front. Big difference in Utah's defensive front and

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Speaker 3: those boys down in San Marco's no disrespect. So I'm

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Speaker 3: concerned about this batter team. This screams Bilo sell high.

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Speaker 3: Now that that's over seven, but with risings, uncertain status,

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Speaker 3: some of the stuff that I saw with Baylor in

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Speaker 3: the secondary and especially in the trenches, which is not

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Speaker 3: where you want to be completely overmatched against Utah, I'm

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Speaker 3: worried and I'm not sure I could pull the trigger here.

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Speaker 3: What do you see?

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Speaker 2: I know I laid it two hundred and one Texas

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Speaker 2: State somewhere and I can't find the book I laid

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Speaker 2: it at just a pure GJ Kitty, We love him

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Speaker 2: on this podcast.

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Speaker 3: I talked. I talked about it on our Group of

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Speaker 3: five preview as I did. Duke a duke flyer if

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Speaker 3: they beat Clemson the opener guess who didn't bet either,

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Speaker 3: just like got in bet TWU lane fifty to one

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Speaker 3: last year. If they're talking about that. But anyway, what

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Speaker 3: are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 2: I said that I like a lot of dogs this week.

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Speaker 2: This isn't one of them. The focus here is all

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Speaker 2: on Baylor. Texas State stuffed seventeen of twenty nine rushing

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Speaker 2: attempts by Baylor seventeen of twenty nine. The national average

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Speaker 2: is thirty percent. I can't back a Baylor team that

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Speaker 2: has massive problems in offensive line and in the secondary

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Speaker 2: and they are just fade city until they prove it.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch Baylor with any kind of money until

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Speaker 2: that offensive line and secondary rectifies itself.

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Speaker 3: If Rising's out, I would play plus seven and a half. Though,

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Speaker 3: all right, let's stay in the Big twelve and talk

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Speaker 3: a little Texas Tech or again, Texas Tech another Big

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Speaker 3: twelve team that didn't cover last week, and then you

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Speaker 3: know you have the Pac twelve. We're almost everyone covered

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Speaker 3: in one pack. Twelve, by the way, went undefeated straight up.

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Speaker 3: Last week. Texas Tech went down as a two touchdown

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Speaker 3: underdog at Wyoming in double overtime. They are six and

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Speaker 3: a half point dog here over under sixty nine. I

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Speaker 3: was hesitant to and didn't have it yet by Baylor

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Speaker 3: on this you know good Bilosaw spot. I was not

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Speaker 3: with Texas Tech. Agreed little juice seven pops in the market.

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Speaker 3: I plus seven minus one point fifteen. I grab that,

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Speaker 3: snatched that up. I think you maybe you'll see somewn

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Speaker 3: I think anytime you see seven, it's gonna get scooped

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Speaker 3: in this game. For so a couple of things Texas Tech.

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Speaker 3: Weird things happened in Laramie. They were up seventeen to

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Speaker 3: nothing in that game. Kind of went to sleep after that.

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Speaker 3: They might not have prepared for that game as much

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Speaker 3: as they maybe should have if you have a quarterback

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Speaker 3: and an offensive coordinator who might have been prepping for

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Speaker 3: this week. And that's for their old team in Oregon.

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Speaker 2: By the way, what tape of Wyoming's offense are you

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Speaker 2: preparing for? It was lifeless? Like you, I wouldn't put

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Speaker 2: in a game plan either.

365
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Speaker 3: I'm giving them them the benefit of the doubt. You

366
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Speaker 3: know this day it was their first loss against a

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Speaker 3: group of five teams. It's two thousand and nine when

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Speaker 3: Mike Leach was there and in that game, you know,

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Speaker 3: Texas Tech fans were like, oh we lost a group

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Speaker 3: of five team. They recovered, well, they won. I think

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Speaker 3: their next year or four beat a couple of ranked teams.

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Speaker 3: I think Texas Tech's going to bounce back. This is

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Speaker 3: a team that people were talking about as sleepers to

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Speaker 3: win the Big Twelve coming into the year, including Brett McMurphy.

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Speaker 3: So maybe he jinks them, but I still like this

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Speaker 3: roster overall. I also love vetting Texas Texas Tech team

377
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Speaker 3: under maguire as a dog because they're really aggressive on

378
00:19:39,640 --> 00:19:43,920
Speaker 3: fourth downs increases the variants. I'm buying Texas Tech. Give

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Speaker 3: them the benefit of the doubt here. Didn't adjust him

380
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Speaker 3: more than maybe some others did. On the other side,

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Speaker 3: you'd have all this love for Oregon for putting up

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Speaker 3: eighty one on Portland State. Portland State stinks. I don't

383
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,920
Speaker 3: care about that game, so I still have major questions

384
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Speaker 3: about this Oregon defense. I'm I'm sure this Texas Tech

385
00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 3: team has been prepping with all the all that. It's

386
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Speaker 3: the title Schuck for VENG game, which I tweeted out

387
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Speaker 3: last week. Seven is way too many. Whenever you see

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Speaker 3: a seven, if you got to, I think you can

389
00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,159
Speaker 3: get seven minus one fifteen here you can buy it.

390
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Speaker 3: And oh, by the way, shout out bo Nicks Bonick season.

391
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Speaker 3: It's our first mention him this year. Bo Nicks season.

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Speaker 3: Then full effect all the billboards for the Heisman campaign.

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Speaker 3: Where is this game being played? Coan? Can you check

394
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Speaker 3: for me?

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Speaker 2: Hm hmm.

396
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Speaker 3: It appears it's on the road, which means you get

397
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Speaker 3: road bo Nicks. We have talked ad nauseum and the

398
00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 3: sample size is significant. About how much worse Bo Nicks

399
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Speaker 3: has played on the road compared to at home. And

400
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Speaker 3: this is not just any road venue. This is in

401
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Speaker 3: love Acooch. I think has at none of at night

402
00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:03,640
Speaker 3: one of the most underrated home field advantages in all

403
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 3: of college football as compared to the market. So if

404
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 3: you go back twenty years, right, there's some altitude there

405
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:16,119
Speaker 3: when it's a really good atmosphere. Texas Tech is fifty

406
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Speaker 3: six forty two and two against the spread at home

407
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 3: since two thousand and five. It's over fifty seven percent

408
00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 3: over you know, say size with about one hundred games.

409
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Speaker 3: Only five other teams have turned a bigger profit in

410
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Speaker 3: their own stadium over that span. That includes nineteen eight

411
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Speaker 3: and two against the spread over seventy percent at home

412
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Speaker 3: against non conference foes who don't have as much familiarity

413
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Speaker 3: with playing there. So yeah, Texas Tech, I think is

414
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Speaker 3: the side here. I'm not hesitant on the back of

415
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Speaker 3: them as I was with Baylor in the by low spot.

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Speaker 2: You agree, water percent agree. This is like the greatest

417
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: narrative game ever, you know, with Tyler should be and

418
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,480
Speaker 2: showed the door. It's not any snaps here for you

419
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 2: in this quarterback room. Also Tim de Ruder defensive quarter

420
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Speaker 2: for Texas Tech. Dan Lanning did not retain him. I mean,

421
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: there is plenty of motivation and you have to wonder

422
00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 2: did any of that play a factor down at Wyoming.

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Speaker 2: The box score really proved out that there're serious issues

424
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 2: at Baylor. The box score for Texas Tech at Wyoming,

425
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Speaker 2: I didn't see any of that sixty three percent success

426
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 2: rate in standard downs, they were great. Texas Tech had

427
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: a subpar day when it comes to the red zone.

428
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Speaker 2: You know, maybe that's no Donovan Smith who was it

429
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 2: could be a load up tank inside the ten. He's

430
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 2: gone now. But at the same time, like there's a

431
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 2: lot of variants early in the season with finishing drives

432
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 2: about how many points you're putting on the board once

433
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: you get past the forty yard line. I'm willing to

434
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,160
Speaker 2: give the Red Raiders a pass on averaging three point

435
00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:38,960
Speaker 2: three points every time that they passed the forty yard line.

436
00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:41,080
Speaker 2: So the question is can Texas Tech stop the high

437
00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 2: octane Ducks offense. I think the answer is yes. I

438
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:47,240
Speaker 2: mean the defense was stout and standard downs against Wyoming

439
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 2: they allowed only three point two yards per play, you know,

440
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 2: and they sent Wyoming to passing downs frequently. I know

441
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 2: it's a different set of offenses here. I know how

442
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,360
Speaker 2: great the offense is for Oregon, But at the same time,

443
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,720
Speaker 2: Texas Tech is not as bad as what that loss

444
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 2: looks like. They allowed four or five wyoming red zone

445
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 2: trips to end in a TD if that regresses it all,

446
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 2: Texas Tech wins that game by ten, and they'll win

447
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 2: this game too. The number five, that's after I adjusted,

448
00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:16,720
Speaker 2: and so you know, with the number of five, I

449
00:23:16,800 --> 00:23:19,200
Speaker 2: was happy to take seven and a half, seven, I

450
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 2: take six and a half, I take six. Texa Tech

451
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 2: is a live dog here.

452
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 3: Yep, yeah, I completely agree. A great spot to buy

453
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:31,720
Speaker 3: low guns up. All right, let's go to us what

454
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 3: I think is a similar spot in NC State Notre Dame. Oh,

455
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 3: Donny the pipes pipe. So NC State seven seven and

456
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:51,520
Speaker 3: a half point home dog against Notre Dame. You have

457
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:56,480
Speaker 3: a home dog right around a touchdown, taking on an

458
00:23:56,480 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 3: opponent that absolutely demolished their opponent last week over under.

459
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 3: I believe sitting it right around there's been some movement here.

460
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: Fifty one. As soon as I saw it a seven

461
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 3: and a half on MC State, I bought it. That's all.

462
00:24:14,280 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 3: I wanted coming into the year. When I looked at

463
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 3: this game, I said, I don't think I'm gonna get

464
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,400
Speaker 3: seven or more. If I do, I'm going to take

465
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 3: it unless I learned something new about these teams. We haven't.

466
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: Notre Dame crushed Navy and Tennessee.

467
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,679
Speaker 2: State, which probably helped his line.

468
00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of love for it went by

469
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 3: total score ninety eight to six. I didn't really adjust

470
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 3: them up that much against Navy. I adjusted Navy down

471
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: a bunch. They looked incoonfident under their new head coach.

472
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 3: We knew Sam Hartman and that offense was going to

473
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,480
Speaker 3: tear through Navy. I didn't learn anything new. I love

474
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 3: Sam Hartin. We know Grady Is. I still the same

475
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 3: questions I had about Notre Dame that I did in

476
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 3: the beginning of the season. And then NC State, who,

477
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,800
Speaker 3: by the way, you know you have a couple extra

478
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,879
Speaker 3: days of preparation here with Notre Dame traveling down to

479
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 3: NC State, I think another team with an underrated home

480
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 3: field advantage in big games. But NC State went up

481
00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:17,879
Speaker 3: to Yukon new coordinator, new quarterback. There was some you know,

482
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 3: some rust, but they didn't really show much. I was

483
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 3: surprised that brendan Ard truck ran at nineteen times. He's

484
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 3: not going to survive the Earth. They do that every game,

485
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 3: but they didn't really really open up the playbook. I

486
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 3: don't think they knew that, you know, once that game

487
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 3: was in hand, that they could just win it with

488
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 3: their defense. You kind of only average three point eight

489
00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:39,200
Speaker 3: yards per play on two hundred and two total yards.

490
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 3: This is a defense at ency State that you could

491
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 3: pretty much just always trust to be good under Tony Gibson.

492
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 3: That's a key point here in that there's there's a

493
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: lot of familiarity with this matchup, which makes it pretty

494
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,199
Speaker 3: intriguing because you have Sam Hartman Tony Gibson who have

495
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: gone head to head in each of the past three seasons.

496
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 3: And I would argue that Tony Gibson has gotten the

497
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 3: better of Hartman all those matchups if you look. So,

498
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:08,159
Speaker 3: if I pull up Hartman's numbers, he has in just

499
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 3: those three games against the NC State defense, he has

500
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 3: six touchdowns six interceptions. In all other games, and Sam

501
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 3: Hartman's career six year seniors played one hundred and ten

502
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,280
Speaker 3: touchdowns thirty five interceptions. It's over a three to one

503
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 3: ratio six to six against NC State. Also eight point

504
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 3: three percent sack rate against NC State in all other

505
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: games five point eight, So you're talking two and a

506
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 3: half percent higher sacrate against NC State. Where does that

507
00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 3: come from? With Tony Gibson defense, It's all about the skies,

508
00:26:41,440 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 3: you know, simulated pressures, blitzes, bringing pressure and confusing opposing

509
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 3: quarterbacks with different looks. Sam Hartman has not been shot.

510
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 3: Excuse me, Sam Hartman has not been the first quarterback

511
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 3: to be confused by Tony Gibson defense. Go back to

512
00:26:59,320 --> 00:27:03,920
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahone Holmes at Texas Tech. His lowest collegiate passing

513
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: output in the game he started and finished without getting hurt,

514
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 3: came against Tony Gibson defense when he played when he

515
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 3: was coordinating at West Virginia. Mahomes looked confused. So Hartman

516
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:17,520
Speaker 3: hasn't really figured it out. The offensive line is now

517
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 3: better and it's a different offense. But he had really

518
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 3: good receivers at Wake Forest. So we'll see if Gibson

519
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:31,000
Speaker 3: can once again confuse Hartman into a few critical mistakes.

520
00:27:31,400 --> 00:27:33,639
Speaker 3: But I think this number is too high. I think

521
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: this NC State defense you can generally trust them. I

522
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 3: think they'll open up the playbook a little more. This week,

523
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 3: you'll see that offense hit a few more explosive plays,

524
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: and mainly I just have to buy in c State

525
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 3: after not like, I just haven't really seen anything from

526
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 3: either team to make me really adjust what I thought

527
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 3: coming into the season. So I'll happily take over a

528
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 3: touchdown with the pack at home.

529
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm glad we did our homework here on this

530
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 2: Hartman versus Tony Gibson because twenty twenty one, three TD's

531
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 2: three i iNTS that was the second worst a just

532
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 2: a completion percentage of Sam Hartman blogged that entire year

533
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty one, and last year two TD's three

534
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,680
Speaker 2: i iNTS, his worst adjusted completion percentage of the year,

535
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 2: came against this defense. So I think we've hammered on enough.

536
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: I mean I've heard people say, well, you can't lose

537
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,400
Speaker 2: to somebody three times. Yeah you can. You can lose.

538
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:25,640
Speaker 2: Tony Gibson can fool you on Sunday, he can fool

539
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:27,639
Speaker 2: you on Wednesday, he can fool you any day. You

540
00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:30,119
Speaker 2: know Notre Dame hasn't given up a TD through two games,

541
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: and the question is is can they contain Brendan Armstrong.

542
00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 2: I mean, on this side of the ball is where

543
00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,000
Speaker 2: I really started to fall in love with n C State,

544
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 2: because forget Navy, forget Tennessee State, Notre Dame's defense could

545
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,320
Speaker 2: not contain Caleb Williams last year. I'm not comparing Brendan

546
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: arms around Caleb Willams. I'm just saying mobile quarterbacks, they

547
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 2: can get out of the pocket and do something. They

548
00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: had a real problem of Caleb Williams last year. Xavier

549
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 2: r Line last year had sixty yards on the ground

550
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: and a TD Navy almost upset Notre Dame. These kinds

551
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 2: of quarterback give Notre Dames defense an issue. It's a

552
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 2: Marcus Freeman issue, Notre Dame. Here's the last thing I'll

553
00:29:05,720 --> 00:29:07,240
Speaker 2: say about this. Why I was so comfortable with n

554
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 2: C State. I bet Brendan Armstrong at Virginia when he

555
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 2: went up against defenses that were poor and tackling, because

556
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 2: if you are arm tackling and you take wrong angles,

557
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 2: Brendan Armstrong is going to burn you. Notre Dame finished

558
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 2: ninety seventh and tackle grading after two games against Navy

559
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 2: and Tennessee State per PFF near one hundred in tacles.

560
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: Pretty coot.

561
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, So if you're gonna have sloppy tackling. Brennan Armstrong

562
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: is going to scramble and score. And I trust ninc

563
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 2: State to absolutely keep up here.

564
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 3: Bookmakers that I talked to, they're going to need NC State.

565
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: So yeah, makes sense where this line is gone. And

566
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 3: Notre Dame is a public team and people have saw

567
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 3: them crushed two opponents. They know Sam Hartman, who has

568
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 3: looked fantastic, but look who it came against. But speaking

569
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:58,400
Speaker 3: to like, these types of teams getting a little overvalued,

570
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:02,440
Speaker 3: especially across a key number early in the season. Since

571
00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 3: two thousand and five, favorites that won and covered their

572
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,640
Speaker 3: first two games, which Notre Dame has, you know, and

573
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 3: it might be, Hey, maybe it's just because of the

574
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 3: competition in the third game when they are road favorites

575
00:30:18,240 --> 00:30:21,000
Speaker 3: of over a field goal, which Notre Dame is here

576
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 3: twenty one to thirty eight and one against the spread

577
00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: just a shade over thirty five percent. So those favorites

578
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 3: that win and cover those first two games, when they

579
00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 3: then go on the road and they're over a field

580
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 3: goal favorite for their third game just above thirty five percent,

581
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 3: which I think speaks to maybe like, oh, look, this

582
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 3: team looks so good in the first two weeks, but

583
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 3: they were favorites and they covered might not be as

584
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 3: good as they appear due to the level of competition.

585
00:30:47,440 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 3: I could be dead wrong in Notre Dame. They could

586
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:53,600
Speaker 3: come out here and look fantastic again against a much

587
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 3: better opponent. And if they do, I'll tip my cap

588
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: and I'll adjust Notre Dame accordingly. But until then, happy

589
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 3: to take the touchdown and hook with the wolf Pack.

590
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: All right, before we get to Nebraska, Colorado, which I

591
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:12,479
Speaker 3: know everyone wants opinions on what's to talk about. Like

592
00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 3: we mentioned last week, our friends at the Favorites podcast

593
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 3: have officially launched their free NFL picking contest, five games

594
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 3: against the spread each week, prize pool of one hundred

595
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 3: and twenty thousand dollars in cash. Has to be a podcast,

596
00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 3: sports podcast record brand prize forty thousand, three K for

597
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:33,320
Speaker 3: top five weekly completely free. Just need to be twenty

598
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 3: one plus in a US resident. There's just zero reason

599
00:31:36,360 --> 00:31:39,440
Speaker 3: not to go play, So just go to Favorites dot

600
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,040
Speaker 3: action network dot com. If you haven't signed up yet,

601
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 3: that's Favorites dot action network dot com. I've signed up.

602
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 3: My wife was first in line to sign up some

603
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 3: massive shit that you just shouldn't pass up. So get

604
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 3: in there before week one Sunday, get a shot at

605
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 3: the grand prize, or even just a couple k on

606
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 3: a weekly basis. Let's move on to Nebraska Colorado curiously

607
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 3: if you have any thoughts here, because I look with

608
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: one of the biggest storylines of the this week in

609
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 3: the betting space has been everyone in the world is

610
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 3: going to bet Colorado. There. He is right there, Coach Joys.

611
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 3: I love it, and that's true. Like there could be

612
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: more bets on Colord than any NFL team this week

613
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 3: according to some sports books. That doesn't mean it's a loser.

614
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 3: So there's times where the general public masses could be

615
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 3: ahead of professional betters and ahead of odds makers. Doesn't happen,

616
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 3: often won't happen over the long run. But there's a

617
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 3: hesitancy of professional betters odds makers to adjust the team

618
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 3: too much. And I do that too. It's one of

619
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 3: the biggest keys of early in the season. You want

620
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 3: to make your biggest adjustments, but you don't want to

621
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 3: overreact to one data point, and you never want to

622
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,080
Speaker 3: make it just an astronomical adjustment because of one game.

623
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 3: But we're in a different day and age. We have

624
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 3: no historical reference point for what some teams are doing now,

625
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:14,920
Speaker 3: blowing up an entire team, bringing in the whole new

626
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 3: staff and basically bringing in the whole new team, And

627
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 3: so I don't know how to really know how to

628
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: adjust Colorado. Their offense was way better than I thought.

629
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 3: The offensive line held up Sanders Mass some of those issues,

630
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 3: and they obviously win as it twenty and a half

631
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 3: twenty one point underdog at TCU. Another thing that throws

632
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 3: avention to me is I'm down on TCU this year,

633
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 3: but I expected their defense to be better than it was.

634
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 3: So I don't know where to price Colorado. I need

635
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:50,000
Speaker 3: more data. I'm staying far, so far away from this game.

636
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: If I had to guess how it plays out, it

637
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 3: would be Colorado wins by three on the Nebraska misfield goal,

638
00:33:58,160 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 3: because that's how every rasca A game goes. They're losing

639
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 3: some heartbreaking fashion. But I was impressed with Nebraska defense

640
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 3: in Rule's debut. But I don't trust their quarterback to

641
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 3: not turn it over a bunch, which would be a

642
00:34:14,239 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 3: kill shot. Here, what are your thoughts here?

643
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:19,239
Speaker 2: Here's what you're doing with Dean Sanders. In Colorado, you're

644
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 2: essentially walking into a casino. You're seeing a guy rolling

645
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 2: hot at the dice table, and you're placing a bet

646
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,920
Speaker 2: right next to him, hoping he doesn't crap out and

647
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 2: that seven's gonna come, because that's exactly where Colorado is.

648
00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: Once I dove through the box score, watched every highlight

649
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 2: that I possibly could, I've seen this story before. Now

650
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,279
Speaker 2: from a power rating perspective, I moved him thirteen and

651
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:43,440
Speaker 2: a half points. I made it Colorado minus three and

652
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 2: a half. I'm not sure you know. We put that

653
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:49,320
Speaker 2: out on Sunday before Oddsmaker's had numbers out, before anybody

654
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 2: else had a power rating out. I said, Okay, I'm

655
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: gonna go with Colorado minus three and a half in

656
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: this game. It's the biggest adjustment I've ever made in

657
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,359
Speaker 2: my life. But I think it's justified, and we'll see

658
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: if it needs to go farther. But I feel like

659
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 2: after one game and after going through the box score,

660
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,359
Speaker 2: I have a pretty good idea about who Colorado is.

661
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: Colorado offense was explosive. They were just completely explosive on

662
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,920
Speaker 2: passing downs and zero success in running the ball. They

663
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: didn't even have an interest in establishing the rush two

664
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: point nine yards per play rushing the ball. They just

665
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: went straight to, let's throw. Seventy one percent success rate

666
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 2: in passing downs. If you want to know what that is,

667
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: the national average is thirty seven percent. They nearly doubled

668
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 2: the success rate in passing downs. That's not supposed to happen,

669
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 2: especially when you consider their average distance to go in

670
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:36,720
Speaker 2: passing downs was eleven yards. They were at like second

671
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: and eleven, third and eleven often and had a seventy

672
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 2: one percent success rate. Colorado defense relied solely on defensive

673
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,680
Speaker 2: havoc for turnovers. That's all it was. It wasn't like

674
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,840
Speaker 2: they stopped TCU for moving the ball. TCU still gained

675
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 2: seventy two percent of available yards. That is a ton.

676
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 2: Colorado is just completely on defensive havoc. That's exactly how

677
00:35:57,960 --> 00:35:58,520
Speaker 2: they stopped him.

678
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 3: Travis was like, yeah, defending the multiple receivers all over

679
00:36:03,520 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 3: the field, I mean it was one hell of a performance.

680
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 3: But yeah, They're defense still isn't really going to stop

681
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,840
Speaker 3: many people. But like, two, how much do I trust

682
00:36:11,840 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 3: in Nebraska offense?

683
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 2: That's yeah, that's where I'm getting to because So the

684
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 2: thing is is like to put Colorado in a silo.

685
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: They're the hot roller at the crafts table. That's what

686
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 2: they are, and you just got to make a decision

687
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 2: whether you think it's gonna keep going. When I turn

688
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,799
Speaker 2: over to Nebraska, this is where I you know, I

689
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 2: easily had to make a decision because I bought Colorado

690
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,319
Speaker 2: money line I think minus one twenty five, one thirty

691
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: because I knew. I did that on you know, Sunday,

692
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 2: when lines started coming out. I knew there would be

693
00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: this mass rush for Colorado. Want to get the cheapest

694
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,879
Speaker 2: money line possible because I could easily see this game

695
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 2: land on one or two. When I look at the

696
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 2: Nebraska side, the Corneriskers did a great job shutting down

697
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 2: the Minnesota rushing attack. They allowed three point one yards

698
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 2: per rush. The defense got five pressures from Ty Robinson

699
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 2: on the interior flushing out eight and caliak manus. My

700
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 2: question is, are those two variables of good thing stuck?

701
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,360
Speaker 2: Colorad was not running the ball, So what does it

702
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: matter that Nebraska shut down the Minnesota rush? But do

703
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 2: you want Shador Sanders outside the tackles running around and

704
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 2: passing downs with seventy one percent success, right. I think

705
00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:13,720
Speaker 2: that's a recipe for disaster for Nebraska here. Now, Jeff

706
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 2: Simms did lead a very stout rushing attack. I mean

707
00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 2: they were great on the ground until he has to throw,

708
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: until he has to make decisions. So Nebraska falls to

709
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:28,879
Speaker 2: Colorado thanks to two areas. One Minnesota converted half their

710
00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: third downs with a quarterback passing on the run and

711
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: allowing explosives and passing downs. That's exactly what Colorado wants

712
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: to do. So what Nebraska's good at stopping the rush

713
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:41,080
Speaker 2: doesn't apply here. And forcing the quarterback out of the pocket.

714
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 2: I don't think you want to do that either. And

715
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,760
Speaker 2: then you have Jeff Simms, who can be a turnover

716
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 2: machine going up against this havoc minded We only need

717
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 2: to depend on defensive turnovers Colorado defense. This is just

718
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 2: a recipe for Nebraska to lose this game by one, two, three.

719
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 2: I don't know, but that's how it's going to go.

720
00:37:58,360 --> 00:38:00,840
Speaker 2: And I'm telling you, iFADO wants to win here and

721
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 2: cash the money line ticket, great, we'll take it. Maybe

722
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 2: we take the week off against Colorado State, but we're

723
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 2: gonna hammer organ in usc against this Colorado team. At

724
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 2: the end of the month. But for today, we're gonna

725
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,879
Speaker 2: stand next to the craps table. We're gonna stand next

726
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 2: to the guy throwing the dice, and we're gonna let

727
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 2: him roll for another week past.

728
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 3: For me, good law. I'll be tuning in just for

729
00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 3: the entertainment value. I made it minus one after justin,

730
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 3: but I don't know how to adjust Colorado, but definitely

731
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 3: an exciting story on. It's a good luck to everyone

732
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,920
Speaker 3: that will be which is most people backing Colorado.

733
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 4: I expect to be great when I walk into a

734
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,359
Speaker 4: room and is seventy to a degrees when I get there.

735
00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 2: It's gonna be seventy. I expect to make change.

736
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 3: All right. One final MARKI matchup to get to Texas

737
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:49,439
Speaker 3: A and M Miami. This game is going a little

738
00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 3: under the radar because of all the other stuff that's

739
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 3: going on, and you have Texas Alabama and for how

740
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 3: these teams have performed recently, but there's some optimism around

741
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 3: both programs. Both looked good in relatively easy covers against

742
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:06,959
Speaker 3: inferior opponents in Week one. A and M's a four

743
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:10,719
Speaker 3: point favorite here over under fifty one. The others taken

744
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 3: a bunch of money since open. From a numbers perspective,

745
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 3: I like Miami here. It's an interesting both teams benefited.

746
00:39:19,960 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 3: It seems like they benefited from coordinator changes. Both of

747
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: these teams have a ton of talent if you just

748
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 3: go up and down the roster. Both quarterbacks looked pretty

749
00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 3: good in their openers. Van Dyke looked healthy. The Miami

750
00:39:36,920 --> 00:39:40,840
Speaker 3: defense looked great. And this Texas A and M offense,

751
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 3: they were going a little faster, they were a little

752
00:39:45,000 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 3: more vertical, and they have two really good receivers and

753
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 3: stuarton Thomas who just have such big catching radio. I'm

754
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 3: still a little concerned about the trenches for Texas A

755
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:59,600
Speaker 3: and M the defense, like Mike Gelco, look that he's

756
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 3: doing it. Do they miss him? You see the coordinators

757
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 3: at Clemson that are known, they missed them. So from

758
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 3: a numbers perspective, I didn't really learn too much last week.

759
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 3: Maybe Fisher will allow you're a boy, Bob Vitrio, just

760
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 3: take the full rains at all times. But what if

761
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 3: this game gets close. I'm still have my questions like

762
00:40:21,960 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 3: does he pull it back? So you couldn't really get

763
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,280
Speaker 3: gathered too much information based on the opponents last week.

764
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 3: I mean New Mexico Stakes, They're bad, They're awful. But

765
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:36,400
Speaker 3: at this number, Miami at home, I'm either betting them

766
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 3: on the spread or there's a little more variance because

767
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 3: of the unknowns here in my opinion, So maybe I'll

768
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 3: throw them in a round robin dogg. But Miami, to me,

769
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 3: is the side. Definitely some more optimism around Texas, A

770
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 3: and M from what you saw with the offense led

771
00:40:51,120 --> 00:40:54,120
Speaker 3: by a very talented quarterback in Connor Reagman last week,

772
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 3: even if it was against a bad, bad opponent in Miami,

773
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,799
Speaker 3: just strangled Miami Ohio from the start. What do you

774
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 3: see in this one?

775
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 2: I agree I make the game three. I think every

776
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 2: number out there is good. If you want to buy it,

777
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 2: let's just put it to bed. This is Bobby Petrino's

778
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 2: offensive system. Don't know who's calling the plays, but it's

779
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 2: his system. Connor Wiegman more than half of his targets

780
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:15,640
Speaker 2: were ten plus yards down the field. Last year he

781
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 2: was less than forty percent. I mean, and play out.

782
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:20,359
Speaker 3: A lot of different formations too, Like different formations they

783
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 3: were using the route the aggies.

784
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 2: I think the one thing that people are not talking

785
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 2: about smoiler alert for everybody. I do like the over

786
00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 2: in this game, but the Aggies increase their pace by

787
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 2: two seconds per play. Christophal was in its presser this week,

788
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 2: and he was very nervous about the downfield passing of

789
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 2: Texas A and m. His concerns were at the corner position.

790
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 2: He has a ton of transfers. But then you go

791
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 2: and look. Jaden Davis came in from OU. He was

792
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 2: the highest coverage grading of any defensive back against Miami Ohio.

793
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 2: But I do think Miami can win this game out right.

794
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,360
Speaker 2: Tech sadem defense did not pull a great grade in

795
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 2: pass rush. If you're going to keep Tyler Van Dyke

796
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 2: a little bit more clean, he's going to be able

797
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 2: to connect on some explosive plays. I think the tempo

798
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 2: is more upbeat than last year. Definitely ended seventeen to nine.

799
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 2: But I like Miami and the points, and I love

800
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 2: the over here fifty one is where I'd stop buying them.

801
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, tempo, more better quarterback play, more diverse play calling.

802
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 3: It should look the game should look a lot different

803
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: than that rock fight last year. But I agree it's

804
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 3: the points. Maybe Miami and a round robin. I might

805
00:42:25,520 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 3: throw them in there because this is a gamer. You're

806
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 3: gonna learn a lot about both teams. All right, let's

807
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 3: do some rapid fire a little Arizona Miss State. I

808
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 3: like Arizona with the points here. I look, Misssippi State

809
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 3: is the team I wanted to fade this year, especially

810
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:43,359
Speaker 3: early on. They're going through an offensive transformation. They looked

811
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 3: they played a very overmatched opponent last week. Even though

812
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,200
Speaker 3: it was like, I think three to nothing at the

813
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 3: end of the first quarter, there was some struggles. It's

814
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,399
Speaker 3: gonna be a much more balanced offense, like Mississippi State

815
00:42:55,520 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 3: was like running the ball looked weird, but you know

816
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 3: what sparked the offense was Mike right Andy Transfer coming

817
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 3: in and running. He ran like five times for one

818
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 3: hundred yards. That's on film now, though, Like that's something

819
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 3: Arizona can prepare for. I think the key to this

820
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: game though, is Look, I still think there's gonna be

821
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,280
Speaker 3: some growing pains with Misssippi State and that offense, especially

822
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 3: you know, once they're not playing it completely overmatched opponent.

823
00:43:17,480 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 3: But on the defensive side of the ball, I think

824
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 3: their secretary is vulnerable. They've lost a cornerback to the

825
00:43:23,400 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 3: first round of the NFL drafting back to back seasons.

826
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,839
Speaker 3: I think Jayden Delara and that exposive passing attack can

827
00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 3: hit enough explosive place to at least keep this within

828
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 3: one possession. Wouldn't even be shot. They pulled out in

829
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 3: outright upset. For what it's worth, Missippi State. Maybe look,

830
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,840
Speaker 3: they beat Arizona last year. They got LSU on deck

831
00:43:41,280 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 3: at home, maybe peeking ahead a little bit, but regardless,

832
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,280
Speaker 3: I think Arizona's the side. Do you agree?

833
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 2: I do agree the number. I'm wondering if it's gone

834
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 2: too far. Once across ten, I'm wondering if that's too much.

835
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 2: Arizona could absolutely win this game. The problem is I

836
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,680
Speaker 2: didn't see a hole in Misissippi State's box score, right,

837
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: I mean, very balanced attack. Will Rodgers had two twenty

838
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:03,239
Speaker 2: seven in the air. Jacavius Marks helped out with the

839
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 2: two hundred ninety eight rushing on the ground, which included

840
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 2: Mike Right from Vanderbilt. I'm glad he's got a package

841
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:09,399
Speaker 2: in there. We knew that he was going to get

842
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:11,319
Speaker 2: some plays dedicated to him.

843
00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,440
Speaker 3: I mean they play in Southeast Louisiana, though, I mean

844
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 3: we're not really many holes.

845
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 2: The old powerhouse of Sila and then what what Arizona

846
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 2: have Northern Arizona the Lumberjacks there, So, I mean it's

847
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:22,879
Speaker 2: really kind of fruitless to go look at the old

848
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,799
Speaker 2: box scores. But Jade DeLaura did look great. He even

849
00:44:25,840 --> 00:44:28,520
Speaker 2: added a rushing touchdown in there. So this might be

850
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 2: a real throttle that Mississippi State defense. But I don't know,

851
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: you know, I just wonder this is one of those

852
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 2: games where it's like it's moved so much in the

853
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 2: market once you've crossed, like the key of ten, like

854
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 2: does it keep going? I guess I will find out,

855
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 2: But I just I have not fired on this yet.

856
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 3: I like Arizona stay in the same state. Arizona State

857
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:51,279
Speaker 3: takes on Oklahoma State, a you know, a matchup of

858
00:44:51,440 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 3: two teams again similar to Arizona Mississippi State, where you know,

859
00:44:56,840 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 3: what could what do we really learn? In Week one,

860
00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,759
Speaker 3: Arizona State was in a game there was like a

861
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 3: dust storm.

862
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 2: There was like a three am and it was a.

863
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 3: Three hour delay. No one could see anything. They ended

864
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 3: up holding on to beat Southern Utah and then Oklahoma

865
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:21,040
Speaker 3: State again, who played a inferior opponent. You know, I

866
00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 3: would say struggle to beat Central Arkansas. That game was

867
00:45:26,920 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 3: in there. Similar spreads for both teams, but they scored

868
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,640
Speaker 3: fourteen points in the fourth quarter to get to twenty

869
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:37,480
Speaker 3: seven against Central Arkansas and they won twenty seven to thirteen.

870
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:39,799
Speaker 3: I kind of liked some of the things I saw

871
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 3: from Rashada with the Arizona State at quarterback Oklahoma State,

872
00:45:44,960 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 3: I didn't like this roster coming into the season. They

873
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 3: still don't have a quarterback, and like Gundi still wants

874
00:45:50,080 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 3: to play his kid, who actually was like the most

875
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 3: efficient quarterback out of the three that played. Bowman was horrendous,

876
00:45:56,040 --> 00:45:57,799
Speaker 3: and then you had Wrangle in there Gundy. I think

877
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 3: Gundy is hinted that he's going to play all three

878
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 3: again this week. I don't like the process of that

879
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,800
Speaker 3: in Tempe three and a half and a round robin

880
00:46:05,800 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 3: candidate for sure. Yeah, I think Arizona State's the side here.

881
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 2: Well, Jaden Rashada is the best talent on this field,

882
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 2: both sides of the ball, both teams by far. You know,

883
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 2: I like the under here. I mean, both of these

884
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:18,920
Speaker 2: teams struggled to get points up on the board completely.

885
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 2: But I agree with you. If Jaden Rashada plays to

886
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,840
Speaker 2: his level of talent, Arizona state wins this game.

887
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the underlook as well. There then coore

888
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 3: we go any further.

889
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:31,040
Speaker 4: As a reminder, Big Bets on Campus is presented by

890
00:46:31,200 --> 00:46:34,120
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891
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893
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894
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895
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896
00:46:52,520 --> 00:46:56,320
Speaker 5: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana and Hiowa, Kansas, Louiana, Mischimi, Sippi, Nevada,

897
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Speaker 5: New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia,

898
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,719
Speaker 5: watching DC, West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must be

899
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:04,799
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900
00:47:04,840 --> 00:47:07,279
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901
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902
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903
00:47:13,320 --> 00:47:16,919
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904
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905
00:47:19,200 --> 00:47:23,080
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906
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,799
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907
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:28,439
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908
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,440
Speaker 5: gambler in Indiana, Maryland, New Jersey, or West Virginia. One

909
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 5: eight hundred bets off in Iowa. One hundred nine eight

910
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911
00:47:36,440 --> 00:47:39,919
Speaker 5: seven seven eight hope and Why, or text hope and Why.

912
00:47:40,000 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 5: In New York called texts the Tennessee Redline at twenty

913
00:47:42,680 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 5: one hundred eight eight nine nine seven eight nine or

914
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:46,799
Speaker 5: call one eight eight eight seven seven seven nine six

915
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,080
Speaker 5: nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario, if you have questions

916
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,000
Speaker 5: or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you,

917
00:47:51,040 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 5: please contact Connects Ontario at one eight sixty six five

918
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 5: three one two six zero zero to speak to an advisor,

919
00:47:55,640 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 5: free charge. Sports betting is void in Georgia, Hawaii, and

920
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 5: Utah and other states were prohibited. Promotion is not available

921
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 5: in Outa in New York.

922
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:09,640
Speaker 3: Ole, miss Tulane another really good intriguing matchup here. Tulane

923
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:16,320
Speaker 3: looked fantastic last week. Michael Pratt just picked a part

924
00:48:16,360 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 3: South Alabama and another game that despite money coming in

925
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 3: on one side, it did not end well for people

926
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 3: that got a good number. But this is a different

927
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 3: level of competition and ole Miss. I talked endlessly about

928
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 3: how successful Toulane has been against the spread under Willie Fritz,

929
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 3: especially at home. They're by far the most profitable team

930
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:44,560
Speaker 3: at home against the spread, and that continued again last week.

931
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:47,040
Speaker 3: They'll be at home for this one against ole Miss.

932
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:50,640
Speaker 3: I stole major question marks about this two lane defense.

933
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 3: They you know, lost Anderson and Williams at linebacker was

934
00:48:54,600 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 3: so cute. Everything they did and they lost all their safeties.

935
00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 3: I think ole Miss can take advantage. The question is

936
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 3: can Pratt keep up against this ole Miss defense? Almost

937
00:49:08,120 --> 00:49:12,719
Speaker 3: has taken money from the open sitting around seven to

938
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:15,160
Speaker 3: seven and a half point favorite. Do you see anything

939
00:49:15,160 --> 00:49:15,600
Speaker 3: in this game?

940
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:18,239
Speaker 2: Yeah? I absolutely like tu lane in this gamman I

941
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 2: power rated two and a half and I think the

942
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 2: big question that I had is Jackson Dart like he

943
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 2: completely has grasped the playbook. He had a great game.

944
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:28,680
Speaker 2: Four tds, All four of them went to Trey Harris.

945
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,879
Speaker 2: Trey Harris winds up out wide to the left exclusively,

946
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 2: So my quiit and by the way, Ole Miss had

947
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:37,279
Speaker 2: seventeen explosive passes. Crazy. But the question is is does

948
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:41,200
Speaker 2: Tulane have corners to stop Trey Harris And the answer

949
00:49:41,280 --> 00:49:44,840
Speaker 2: is yes, both Jerrius Monroe, Lance Robertson, They're there a corner.

950
00:49:44,880 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 2: They cranked out thirteen PBUs last year. Robinson's already recorded

951
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:51,360
Speaker 2: an I t against South Alabama last week. And the

952
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:54,200
Speaker 2: question then becomes can two lane slow down Quinchawn Judkins.

953
00:49:54,760 --> 00:49:57,439
Speaker 2: This is the top defensive line in the AAC. South

954
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 2: Bama was terrible at running nearly half the rushing tempts

955
00:50:00,320 --> 00:50:01,919
Speaker 2: for stuff and I know that's not the old miss

956
00:50:01,920 --> 00:50:03,560
Speaker 2: and we keep saying that with each one of these games.

957
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 2: But two lane has the defensive interior to plug some

958
00:50:07,600 --> 00:50:10,800
Speaker 2: holes and they have the corners to stop Trey Harris

959
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:13,200
Speaker 2: and Jackson Dark going down, you know, down the sideline.

960
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:15,520
Speaker 2: So I like two lane. I think if you can

961
00:50:15,560 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 2: get it, you know anywhere the number that's at in

962
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:19,399
Speaker 2: the market, I like it all the way down to three.

963
00:50:20,360 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 3: By the way, something I forgot to mention, uh Alabama.

964
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 3: When Alabama goes down to Texas, Auburn goes down to

965
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:35,759
Speaker 3: cal Mississippi State goes down to Arizona, Texas A and

966
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 3: m goes down to Miami. LSU already went down to

967
00:50:38,760 --> 00:50:42,440
Speaker 3: Florida State. All of you, including our producer, were laughing

968
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,800
Speaker 3: at my old Miss twenty five to one sec West futures.

969
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,319
Speaker 3: We'll see who gets the last laugh. Sorry, I gotta

970
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 3: get it in there before before it all falls apart.

971
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 3: I am officially on the old Miss sec West bandwagon

972
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:02,319
Speaker 3: and until I fall off inevitably. So all right, good

973
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 3: stuff there. Oh by the way, Colin Arkansas, you've got

974
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 3: We haven't talked about Arkansas yet. In week one or

975
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:14,720
Speaker 3: week two, they beat Western Carolina fifty six thirteen. Who cares?

976
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 3: In week one they are playing Kent State, laying over

977
00:51:18,760 --> 00:51:22,879
Speaker 3: five touchdowns here, Yeah, you're going, what's the play?

978
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: Woo pig Suey Collins talking razorback football.

979
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 2: I mean the play is the under I think all

980
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 2: Kent State games should be the under it. And I'm a

981
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: little bit nervous. It's not for a lot of money.

982
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 2: Raheem Sanders Rocket Sanders is out. He was doubtful, a

983
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,760
Speaker 2: little bit of swelling in his knee. They got some

984
00:51:40,800 --> 00:51:44,000
Speaker 2: stuff back from the doctor. Today and so the primary

985
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,040
Speaker 2: Bell Cal running back for Arkansas is not going to

986
00:51:46,040 --> 00:51:48,319
Speaker 2: be there. What that means is is you've got three

987
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:51,360
Speaker 2: or four running backs that have been looking, jocking to

988
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 2: try to be second string here. Dominion's gonna get a

989
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:57,200
Speaker 2: ton of the carries here. Arkansas wants to establish the

990
00:51:57,280 --> 00:52:00,359
Speaker 2: rush and that's all Kent State can do. And Kent

991
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 2: State loves to burn clock. I mean that under against

992
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 2: UCF should have absolutely hit. No look ahead for Arkansas here.

993
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:09,200
Speaker 2: They got BYU next week, a game that you know,

994
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 2: they struggled with for the first half and then came

995
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:15,160
Speaker 2: out on fire the second half and won that game.

996
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:18,320
Speaker 2: So I think they're gonna go vanilla. Actually I know

997
00:52:18,360 --> 00:52:19,879
Speaker 2: they're going to go vanilla, and they're going to work

998
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 2: on who the backup is to Rocket Sanders this entire game.

999
00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:26,560
Speaker 2: So no love for Kent State covering, but the under

1000
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 2: is always in play when it comes to Kent State.

1001
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 3: God damn, you're gonna make me bet another Kent State under.

1002
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 2: Was running up Pittman and his new offensive coordinator, you know,

1003
00:52:38,080 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 2: dan Enos, they're running up touchdowns. A kJ is busting

1004
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 2: fifty yard you know, scrammed with ten minutes left in

1005
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:47,040
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter, like they did not let their foot

1006
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,120
Speaker 2: up off the pedal in the last game so against

1007
00:52:49,120 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 2: Western Carolina, So what we'll.

1008
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 3: See that's concerning. Kent State definitely was playing fast than

1009
00:52:53,520 --> 00:52:57,880
Speaker 3: I thought they would too against UCF. I don't know,

1010
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 3: if I don't know, if I'll pull the trigger. That's

1011
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,480
Speaker 3: what you're gonna be spending your Saturday afternoon watching Ken

1012
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,760
Speaker 3: State Arkansas have fun.

1013
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 2: All right?

1014
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 3: Before we continue on, I do want to remind everyone

1015
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,560
Speaker 3: to check out Mike Calbres and Mike Iyanella, Mike and

1016
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 3: Mike on the Group of five Deep Dive every Wednesday

1017
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 3: morning here on BBOC talking all things Group of Five.

1018
00:53:21,360 --> 00:53:25,320
Speaker 3: Calbres crushed his Oklahoma pick so much so that P

1019
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 3: Jones cried on the sidelines last week. That was a

1020
00:53:28,640 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 3: lot of fun. Sounds like this week they're fading Trent

1021
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:34,760
Speaker 3: Dilfer and UAB into the Sun versus Georgia Southern Gatta.

1022
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:37,200
Speaker 3: I'm on al and I know you did that as well.

1023
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,839
Speaker 5: You cannot lose games and still win.

1024
00:53:41,160 --> 00:53:43,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, make sure you check out the podcast there. They

1025
00:53:43,840 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 3: also talk about UTEP Northwestern Northwestern, a home dog to UTEP,

1026
00:53:48,800 --> 00:53:52,720
Speaker 3: a Minor Nation team that has not beat a Power

1027
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:56,880
Speaker 3: five opponent since nineteen sixty seven. Does it happen this weekend? Yes?

1028
00:53:57,000 --> 00:53:57,759
Speaker 3: Or no?

1029
00:53:57,760 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 2: No? No, we've hit rock bottom on north Western. Nodsmakers

1030
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 2: are looking for a number, looking for a number on Northwestern.

1031
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 3: So you think Northwestern wins?

1032
00:54:06,320 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 2: Yes?

1033
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, let's get to everyone's favorite segment.

1034
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:15,400
Speaker 1: Let's talk some trash, the trash man pick of the league.

1035
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 2: I'm the trash man.

1036
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:20,480
Speaker 5: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it,

1037
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 5: totally unreliable, undependably. That's it.

1038
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:24,160
Speaker 4: You've been told off.

1039
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:26,759
Speaker 3: How do you like that? Go ahead? All right, got

1040
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:29,160
Speaker 3: a couple of games here, we'll start. Let me check

1041
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 3: current current prices. We're gonna start with every and by

1042
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 3: the way, the two trash players that I played this week,

1043
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:39,440
Speaker 3: they both covered for us last week in the trash segment.

1044
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:42,799
Speaker 3: And we're going back to the well and there are

1045
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,719
Speaker 3: two teams that combined to score three points in non

1046
00:54:45,760 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 3: garbage time. So we'll start with Sam Houston State against

1047
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:55,279
Speaker 3: air Force. Hey, ain't nobody trying to hit that bullshit?

1048
00:54:55,600 --> 00:54:58,320
Speaker 3: You gotta get the fourteen here. I hope everyone filed along.

1049
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,239
Speaker 3: I think maybe you can still f I'm fourteen out there,

1050
00:55:01,239 --> 00:55:03,360
Speaker 3: but fourteens are so obviously it's a key number, but

1051
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:06,400
Speaker 3: especially in Air Force games, and especially in the game

1052
00:55:07,480 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 3: I had to take this number fourteen and a half

1053
00:55:09,239 --> 00:55:13,480
Speaker 3: and the totals thirty seven, So, I mean, we already

1054
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:18,520
Speaker 3: know how hard it is for Service academies to cover

1055
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 3: as favorites. But the total is thirty seven here and

1056
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:24,719
Speaker 3: you're asking Air Force, and I love what I saw

1057
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:28,240
Speaker 3: from the sam Houston State defense. They looked great last week,

1058
00:55:28,560 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 3: and for what it's worth, there's gonna be limited possessions.

1059
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 3: Now you have the running clock, which is going to

1060
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:35,800
Speaker 3: impact these teams like Air Force even more than others.

1061
00:55:36,160 --> 00:55:38,320
Speaker 3: So it's it's harder for favorites to covering games that

1062
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 3: involve Service Academy. Since two thousand and five, Army, Navy

1063
00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:44,120
Speaker 3: and Air Force forty five percent against the spread as favorites.

1064
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 3: But if you start to increase the size of the

1065
00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:51,080
Speaker 3: favorites forty four percent as double digit favorites when it's

1066
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 3: more than two touchdowns forty one percent. This is just

1067
00:55:55,760 --> 00:56:00,279
Speaker 3: a classic fade of a Service Academy playing a really

1068
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,720
Speaker 3: good sam Houston State defense. The problem is the offense

1069
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:07,000
Speaker 3: did nothing at all, nothing Kegan Shoemaker did not like

1070
00:56:07,200 --> 00:56:10,799
Speaker 3: was horrendous. He was bad last year too. They sat

1071
00:56:10,840 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: a bunch of guys. I thought there could be undervalue

1072
00:56:13,200 --> 00:56:14,839
Speaker 3: coming this year, and they did cover. They covered twenty

1073
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 3: a half even though they didn't score. That could happen

1074
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:20,960
Speaker 3: again this week. And maybe Grant Canal. Maybe it's a

1075
00:56:21,000 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 3: bad sign. They didn't turn to him, but they have

1076
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,640
Speaker 3: Grant Canell, who's been at Arizona, where else, North Texas, Memphis.

1077
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:30,879
Speaker 3: I think maybe I forget where he's been, so there's

1078
00:56:30,920 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 3: a chance that they play him. He can't be any

1079
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:36,200
Speaker 3: worse than Shoemaker. So there's some upside at the quarterback

1080
00:56:36,200 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 3: position as well. But I'll glad they take two touchdowns

1081
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 3: plus here in this game. With a total thirty seven.

1082
00:56:41,960 --> 00:56:42,800
Speaker 3: Agree or disagree?

1083
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 2: I completely disagree. We can put a Vegas thing dinner

1084
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,400
Speaker 2: on it. It's like there's no I when I browse

1085
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:51,920
Speaker 2: Sam Houston eat him up Cats, I didn't see anything

1086
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,560
Speaker 2: that told me that they could plug the triple option

1087
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 2: or stop air force from what they want to do.

1088
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 2: I agree that at fourteen fourteen and a half, it's

1089
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:02,360
Speaker 2: a different cap, but the number out there widely available

1090
00:57:02,520 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 2: is thirteen and a half, and this comes down to

1091
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 2: I don't think you can defend it. I don't know

1092
00:57:07,400 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 2: if Sam Houston is going to score. Are they going

1093
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:11,400
Speaker 2: to score like that? That's the problem.

1094
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 3: They might not need to. I love this, but my

1095
00:57:13,160 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 3: favorite bet of the entire weekend, we're going back to

1096
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:27,320
Speaker 3: Rice Boys No. Rice plus nine and F ten. So

1097
00:57:27,360 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 3: if you find a ten out there against Houston. Houston

1098
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 3: won outright as an underdog last week aninst UTSA I

1099
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 3: downgradeed them. They were awful. They went seventeen to fourteen.

1100
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 3: They had a twenty percent postgame win expectancy. By the way,

1101
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:46,240
Speaker 3: so did Western Kentucky. Even though they covered against USF.

1102
00:57:46,600 --> 00:57:50,800
Speaker 3: The round robin came so close Toledo just the Illinois

1103
00:57:50,800 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 3: doesn't get that prayer fourth down, but they got out

1104
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 3: game by amost one hundred yards by almost one and

1105
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 3: a half yards per play. Against UTSA, they had a

1106
00:57:58,040 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 3: three nothing turnover margin. All their points came off of

1107
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 3: like a punt return, a pick, All these miscues penalties

1108
00:58:06,600 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 3: like it was the uts I gave that game away. Meanwhile, Rice,

1109
00:58:10,640 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 3: they didn't look great last week, but they covered against Texas.

1110
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 3: For me, these two teams played last year at Houston.

1111
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 3: They're both in the city of Houston. But at Houston

1112
00:58:18,680 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 3: dead even game the yards within one yard and ten

1113
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 3: seconds of time possession. Rice was leading with five minutes ago.

1114
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:27,920
Speaker 3: They ended up losing on a scoop and score by Houston.

1115
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 3: But Rice had the ball then two times in Houston territory,

1116
00:58:31,000 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 3: once inside the ten to tie it up and didn't

1117
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:36,840
Speaker 3: get there. But they played dead even and they didn't

1118
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 3: have a quarterback back then. Now they have been you know,

1119
00:58:39,840 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 3: j T. Daniels wasn't great last week. I'spicaally better look

1120
00:58:42,040 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 3: at his fourth school. That was his first week going

1121
00:58:44,080 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 3: up against the Texas defense. It'll be at home now

1122
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:49,320
Speaker 3: against a you know, defense that lost a number of

1123
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 3: guys in the NFL and the secondary of their top

1124
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 3: two pass rushers. And it's an offense, by the way,

1125
00:58:53,480 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 3: that lost Clayton toon Tank Dell that didn't look great

1126
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 3: last week, and they couldn't run the ball. The two

1127
00:58:59,720 --> 00:59:03,080
Speaker 3: point seven yards per carry. I think they're gonna struggle

1128
00:59:03,160 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 3: running the ball again. And I actually like the Rice secondary,

1129
00:59:07,440 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 3: very veteran secondary. So yeah, I think this number is

1130
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:14,520
Speaker 3: way too high. It's also a horrible spot like Houston

1131
00:59:14,640 --> 00:59:17,919
Speaker 3: escapes that game against UTSA. They have TCU on deck

1132
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,919
Speaker 3: for their Big twelve home opener. They host a national

1133
00:59:21,000 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 3: runner up next week yep, and like Rice gets to

1134
00:59:24,200 --> 00:59:27,640
Speaker 3: host Inner City Big Brother. For what it's worth, Houston

1135
00:59:27,720 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 3: under Dana Holgerson notoriously comes out in these games as favorites,

1136
00:59:31,960 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 3: and then they'll slow starts and then they have to

1137
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,760
Speaker 3: rally back to win. Holgerson thirty one forty four and

1138
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 3: one against the spread is a favorite of more than

1139
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:42,640
Speaker 3: a field goal, fourth least profitable over four hundred coaches

1140
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 3: over the past twenty years. At Houston three and ten

1141
00:59:45,560 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 3: against the spread is a double digit favorite twenty three percent,

1142
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:52,040
Speaker 3: failing to cover by almost a touchdown per game. Rice

1143
00:59:52,120 --> 00:59:54,920
Speaker 3: is the side my favorite trash and actually my favorite

1144
00:59:54,960 --> 00:59:55,880
Speaker 3: pick of the entire weekend.

1145
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 2: Oh love it, I've got it, It's in the app.

1146
00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 2: I've got money down on it. The fact that Houston

1147
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 2: has overlooked the fact that there's a little bit of

1148
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 2: box score fraud the week before, and reverse back to

1149
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:09,000
Speaker 2: about minute ten or minute fifteen in this podcast.

1150
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 3: What did the.

1151
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 2: Rice defensive front seven do to Texas offensive line? There's

1152
01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:15,680
Speaker 2: just too many variables here. I'm with you it's owls

1153
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 2: that that jiff is coming out between it all day.

1154
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:23,440
Speaker 3: Who who were you fucking owl? Yep? Oh yeah, I

1155
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 3: can't wait. We getting to out guess Charlotte Maryland. I

1156
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:28,560
Speaker 3: have to get a Charlotte shout here plus twenty four

1157
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,240
Speaker 3: and a half against Maryland. I just don't know enough

1158
01:00:31,240 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 3: about Charlotte yet. Maybe I'll throw a couple rounds on

1159
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 3: it for fun at the bar. But I got nothing

1160
01:00:37,120 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 3: here yet. Don't worry, we'll be betting Sharlott. I ordered

1161
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 3: some fifth Poge shirts today, byway, which I'll bet the

1162
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,480
Speaker 3: cutoff version and everything. I'm fIF Pogi and I'm a

1163
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:49,520
Speaker 3: forty nine er. See. I got one cutoff and I

1164
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 3: got another one that says smoking Stogy's with Pogi or

1165
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:56,440
Speaker 3: something and he's smoking a cigar. I am so excited.

1166
01:00:56,760 --> 01:01:00,320
Speaker 5: I am a glass ten as full guy like get

1167
01:01:00,440 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 5: running over.

1168
01:01:01,480 --> 01:01:03,480
Speaker 3: But I'll bring them out when I got when I

1169
01:01:03,480 --> 01:01:05,520
Speaker 3: got him. I ordered him today, but I got nothing.

1170
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:08,280
Speaker 3: Don't worry, we'll be betting Charlotte this year. I don't see

1171
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 3: any value in this game. Southern Miss Florida State. Southern

1172
01:01:12,360 --> 01:01:15,440
Speaker 3: Miss has maybe a quarterback. They definitely have a guy

1173
01:01:15,480 --> 01:01:18,280
Speaker 3: who can complete passes, which they haven't had in prior years.

1174
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 3: Billy Willis, who transferred from Clemson, looked good last week,

1175
01:01:21,280 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 3: although it was against Alcorn State through for close to

1176
01:01:23,400 --> 01:01:26,080
Speaker 3: three hundred yards. Frank or Is still there. The stefense

1177
01:01:26,080 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 3: still has some guys. The Nasty Bunch ladies last Florida

1178
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:40,040
Speaker 3: State short week after that big win. I might buy

1179
01:01:40,080 --> 01:01:43,440
Speaker 3: Southern Miss. I mean, look, Florida State might be getting

1180
01:01:43,600 --> 01:01:44,840
Speaker 3: like I thought this was gonna be twenty eight and

1181
01:01:44,840 --> 01:01:47,720
Speaker 3: a half. Now that's at thirty one. Maybe because of

1182
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:50,400
Speaker 3: the thirty one and a half. You gotta remember, Florida State,

1183
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:53,040
Speaker 3: the game would have been pretty even in the game.

1184
01:01:53,240 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 3: It was a seven point game going to their fourth quarter.

1185
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 3: If Alice you knew how to sneak the ball, that's

1186
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:00,800
Speaker 3: a different game. Florida State was impressed of. I was

1187
01:02:00,840 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 3: worried about the LSU secondary which ended up being the difference,

1188
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,840
Speaker 3: but thought to say, definitely got you know, fortunate in

1189
01:02:07,880 --> 01:02:11,120
Speaker 3: that game as well. So maybe a little over reaction

1190
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:16,120
Speaker 3: thirty one. I might take Southern Miss right right or wrong?

1191
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 2: No, completely right. I mean when you look at this,

1192
01:02:18,600 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: Florida State has to turn around and start their acc

1193
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,360
Speaker 2: play next week against Boston College. I know we didn't

1194
01:02:23,360 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 2: have a look at it or look away on this podcast.

1195
01:02:25,160 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll have it on every podcast from here

1196
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:30,480
Speaker 2: on out, but this one fits the entire look ahead

1197
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 2: narrative of big time primetime game, all the eyeballs of

1198
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:38,919
Speaker 2: the world. Sandwich, spot here, boom. We got acc play

1199
01:02:39,000 --> 01:02:41,840
Speaker 2: next week. So I power rated at thirty. I was

1200
01:02:41,840 --> 01:02:42,800
Speaker 2: happy to take thirty one.

1201
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 3: Let me get an FCS, FCS or no in here

1202
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:47,560
Speaker 3: for the trash segment.

1203
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:56,760
Speaker 1: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten. It's time

1204
01:02:56,800 --> 01:02:59,120
Speaker 1: to play FC yes or.

1205
01:02:59,120 --> 01:03:05,600
Speaker 3: No Friday night. If you're looking for something to do,

1206
01:03:06,080 --> 01:03:09,120
Speaker 3: we're gonna get the Kansas Illinois a second stony Brook

1207
01:03:09,160 --> 01:03:12,680
Speaker 3: plus seventeen and a half against Rhode Island. This game

1208
01:03:12,760 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 3: last year, Rhde Island blew him out. It was early

1209
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:16,200
Speaker 3: in the year. The game was a pick. Rhode Island

1210
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,600
Speaker 3: obviously almost beat Georgia State. And they have a quarterback

1211
01:03:19,680 --> 01:03:22,000
Speaker 3: I forget his name is case somebody I forget who's

1212
01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 3: been He was at Maryland like seven years ago as

1213
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 3: their quarterback.

1214
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:28,000
Speaker 2: Kaziem Hill.

1215
01:03:28,720 --> 01:03:31,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's the quarterback at Rhode Island. He's he was

1216
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:34,439
Speaker 3: at Maryland. I think it's twenty seventeen. Look, Rhode Island

1217
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 3: almost beat Georgia State. They look good, by the way.

1218
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 3: We'll talk about Georgia State ukon later in the show.

1219
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:44,440
Speaker 3: Stoneybrook got demolished by Delaware and their quarterback I forget

1220
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:46,120
Speaker 3: his name. I should have done more prep for this,

1221
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:49,479
Speaker 3: but obviously haven't bet yet. There's like tiny limits. But case,

1222
01:03:49,480 --> 01:03:52,160
Speaker 3: I forget his name, Case case maybe or something. Case

1223
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:54,800
Speaker 3: he transferred to a buffalo is all I know. And

1224
01:03:54,840 --> 01:03:58,240
Speaker 3: then they got the main offensive coordinator from last year

1225
01:03:58,520 --> 01:04:00,400
Speaker 3: to implement a brand new offense of the call. They

1226
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 3: have a coach who's been there forever. They were awful

1227
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:05,960
Speaker 3: last year, and then the offense was horrendous. Case whatever

1228
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 3: his name, I can't believe. I can't remember his name.

1229
01:04:08,080 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 3: He was thirteen or forty with like four picks, but

1230
01:04:11,480 --> 01:04:13,360
Speaker 3: which is horrendous. They got blown up at Dollar. If

1231
01:04:13,360 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 3: you look in the third quarter, they really started to

1232
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 3: move the ball. They missed a couple of field goals

1233
01:04:17,160 --> 01:04:20,120
Speaker 3: that picked six. Game got away. They started to really

1234
01:04:20,160 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 3: get a hang of the offense. They want to run

1235
01:04:22,040 --> 01:04:24,560
Speaker 3: the ball like a bunch two I think seventy did

1236
01:04:24,560 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 3: and half us too many just throwing that out there

1237
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:28,120
Speaker 3: if you want to get real ugly. And then iowai

1238
01:04:28,160 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 3: of a state. I kind of want to bet the over,

1239
01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:33,560
Speaker 3: but again like I can't. I don't trust the Iowa

1240
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 3: State offense. And I was like I was gonna be

1241
01:04:35,880 --> 01:04:37,600
Speaker 3: more aggressive. They were like going forward on fourth down

1242
01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 3: for touchdowns against an overmatch opponent. The thirty six. I

1243
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:42,920
Speaker 3: lean over there, that is the ultimate trash. Not sure

1244
01:04:42,920 --> 01:04:45,000
Speaker 3: I can pull the trigger. Luckily I didn't pull the

1245
01:04:45,040 --> 01:04:48,480
Speaker 3: trigger on Iowa the over last week. But that'll do

1246
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 3: it for trash. Main main take away there probably Southern

1247
01:04:52,400 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 3: Miss Stonybrook just for a couple of shekels, but Samuston

1248
01:04:56,280 --> 01:04:59,200
Speaker 3: State and Rice are the main your main trash components

1249
01:04:59,200 --> 01:05:01,560
Speaker 3: this week before we go three and out colin San

1250
01:05:01,560 --> 01:05:03,280
Speaker 3: Diego State over You got one last.

1251
01:05:03,040 --> 01:05:04,960
Speaker 1: Week as tech overs.

1252
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:08,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's Idaho State. San Diego State looked horrendous by

1253
01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:10,360
Speaker 3: the way. You pick four hundre yards to Idaho State

1254
01:05:12,000 --> 01:05:15,440
Speaker 3: and again they won by one possession. UCLA at San

1255
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:18,280
Speaker 3: Diego State. Who's going to be the quarterback for you?

1256
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 3: Size the question? Yeah, and well Chip does this. I'm

1257
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,000
Speaker 3: concerned about the Santo State of defense by because Santo State.

1258
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 3: You go back to the Ohio game day, were getting

1259
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:30,720
Speaker 3: shredded early before work got hurt. And then last week

1260
01:05:30,720 --> 01:05:32,840
Speaker 3: they can't shut down Idaho State with UCLA.

1261
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:35,600
Speaker 2: Chip Kelly came out and said, yeah, Collin Schley didn't

1262
01:05:35,640 --> 01:05:38,200
Speaker 2: get any playing time last week. He's absolutely gonna get

1263
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:40,040
Speaker 2: some playing time this week. So we're probably gonna see

1264
01:05:40,040 --> 01:05:42,480
Speaker 2: all three quarterbacks. Not sure when Dante Moore is going

1265
01:05:42,520 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 2: to come in. That interception cost us a cover. A

1266
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:47,240
Speaker 2: couple of field goals and interception by Dante Moore cut

1267
01:05:47,360 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 2: cost us that cover there. So you're going to see

1268
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:53,040
Speaker 2: all three quarterbacks. And again I go back to what

1269
01:05:53,080 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 2: happened last week. If you're gonna play all three quarterbacks,

1270
01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:57,840
Speaker 2: that means you're playing mostly first stringers the entire game.

1271
01:05:57,880 --> 01:05:59,600
Speaker 2: But I don't think you're gonna wipe the floor with

1272
01:05:59,680 --> 01:06:02,120
Speaker 2: Sandy Diego State. They are all of a sudden like

1273
01:06:02,160 --> 01:06:05,920
Speaker 2: an offensive explosive team. Because why because Brady Hope told

1274
01:06:06,000 --> 01:06:07,840
Speaker 2: us during Mountain West Conference media.

1275
01:06:07,600 --> 01:06:10,760
Speaker 3: Days, he's not complosive, in vertical.

1276
01:06:11,000 --> 01:06:15,120
Speaker 2: Explosive invertical. That was Jeff Ecklincy. But Hook said, I'm

1277
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:17,080
Speaker 2: not comfortable with our trench on both sides of the ball,

1278
01:06:17,200 --> 01:06:19,960
Speaker 2: and we are seeing that Jalen Maiden can't get protection,

1279
01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:22,040
Speaker 2: so he's out of the pocket running all over the place.

1280
01:06:22,120 --> 01:06:24,520
Speaker 2: That creates explosives. And then on the defensive side of

1281
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:27,360
Speaker 2: the ball. You know, if Idoh State can run over

1282
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,520
Speaker 2: the defensive line, UCLA is going to be able to

1283
01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:32,120
Speaker 2: do it too. So I bought San Diego State plus

1284
01:06:32,160 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 2: fourteen and a half. Jalen Maiden is going to make

1285
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:38,840
Speaker 2: explosive plays on the outside. Grayson McCall really didn't have

1286
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:41,000
Speaker 2: any scrambles. He had one scramble for ten yards. That's

1287
01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:43,160
Speaker 2: going to change this week. Maiden's going to be able

1288
01:06:43,160 --> 01:06:44,960
Speaker 2: to keep them in this game. At forty eight, I'm

1289
01:06:45,000 --> 01:06:46,360
Speaker 2: a buyer. It's at forty eight and a half in

1290
01:06:46,400 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 2: the market. It continues to trend down. San Diego State

1291
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:52,760
Speaker 2: totals always trend down during the week. That's why you

1292
01:06:52,760 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 2: don't see Colin hitting the over till like Saturday, and

1293
01:06:56,640 --> 01:06:58,439
Speaker 2: maybe if I'm not comfortable hit a lie, but yeah,

1294
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:00,400
Speaker 2: I'm hitting over forty eight on here because San Diego

1295
01:07:00,480 --> 01:07:02,480
Speaker 2: State is no longer a defensive juggernaut.

1296
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:06,960
Speaker 3: Another San Diego State over for Colin. All right, good stuff.

1297
01:07:07,000 --> 01:07:10,600
Speaker 3: That was seventeen games, but we have a couple other

1298
01:07:10,680 --> 01:07:14,600
Speaker 3: to get to. Let's go three and out.

1299
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:17,360
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

1300
01:07:18,160 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 3: All right, Friday night lights.

1301
01:07:20,000 --> 01:07:22,920
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1302
01:07:23,720 --> 01:07:28,280
Speaker 3: Let's go play only one main game here, Illinois at Kansas.

1303
01:07:28,400 --> 01:07:30,919
Speaker 3: I love Kansas here. Not sure I'm going to play them,

1304
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:35,640
Speaker 3: but might be money line, Yeah, might lay the three. Illinois.

1305
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:37,920
Speaker 3: They weren't impressed last week against Toledo. They needed a

1306
01:07:37,960 --> 01:07:40,840
Speaker 3: miracle four down to win that game. Jade Daniels looks

1307
01:07:40,840 --> 01:07:43,120
Speaker 3: like he's going to play for Kansas. They have a

1308
01:07:43,120 --> 01:07:46,040
Speaker 3: couple extra days of rest in preparation. Illinois's on a

1309
01:07:46,040 --> 01:07:48,120
Speaker 3: short week. By the way, last year these two teams

1310
01:07:48,160 --> 01:07:52,120
Speaker 3: were both in the same spot in Kansas upset West Virginia,

1311
01:07:52,120 --> 01:07:55,840
Speaker 3: I believe, and Illinois lost at lowly Indiana on the

1312
01:07:55,920 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 3: short week. Kansas is just this is not the team

1313
01:08:00,600 --> 01:08:03,280
Speaker 3: that you want to play on a short week when

1314
01:08:03,560 --> 01:08:06,440
Speaker 3: you lost your entire secondary to the NFL. They are

1315
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 3: one of the toughest offenses in the country to prepare for.

1316
01:08:10,280 --> 01:08:13,840
Speaker 3: They aren't relying on any one or two guys, and

1317
01:08:14,400 --> 01:08:17,559
Speaker 3: a brand new raw secondary is gonna have a lot

1318
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:21,959
Speaker 3: of trouble here throwing Daniels's legs, and I think Illinois

1319
01:08:22,000 --> 01:08:24,360
Speaker 3: really also gonna miss Chase Brown here they running back.

1320
01:08:25,280 --> 01:08:26,960
Speaker 3: I think Kansas is society here. Do you agree?

1321
01:08:27,439 --> 01:08:30,280
Speaker 2: Absolutely agree? Money line is the play I'm trying to

1322
01:08:30,320 --> 01:08:31,920
Speaker 2: I mean, there's a minus one fifty out there, but

1323
01:08:31,920 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 2: I would try to find a dance partner, maybe parlay

1324
01:08:34,040 --> 01:08:36,599
Speaker 2: it with. Jalen Daniels is going to play in this game.

1325
01:08:36,760 --> 01:08:39,479
Speaker 2: That steam pushed it through the key of three. Listen.

1326
01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 2: The Lance Leopold offense is based a heavy prestat motion

1327
01:08:44,240 --> 01:08:48,479
Speaker 2: and Jalen Daniels absolutely will turn around, counter left right.

1328
01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:50,760
Speaker 2: I mean, if you're not a sound defensive back in

1329
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,759
Speaker 2: the back seven, you're gonna be running all over the place.

1330
01:08:53,120 --> 01:08:55,280
Speaker 2: I think Kansas is gonna get them twisted in a pretzel,

1331
01:08:55,280 --> 01:08:57,240
Speaker 2: will be able to have explosive plays on them all day,

1332
01:08:57,320 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 2: especially with Jalen Daniels back. I do like the over

1333
01:08:59,760 --> 01:09:02,439
Speaker 2: in this game with Jalen Daniels back running the last

1334
01:09:02,520 --> 01:09:06,360
Speaker 2: Leopold offense. People need to remember the Jayhawks were seventh

1335
01:09:06,400 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 2: in red zone TD percentage. They don't kick a lot

1336
01:09:09,479 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 2: of field goals now. They did in their first game,

1337
01:09:12,439 --> 01:09:15,400
Speaker 2: but not with Jalen Daniels back. They are an elite

1338
01:09:15,840 --> 01:09:18,160
Speaker 2: TD scoring team when they get into the red zone.

1339
01:09:18,200 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 2: So I am completely banking on that. In parlay, Kansas

1340
01:09:21,520 --> 01:09:22,799
Speaker 2: probably gonna dip in the over.

1341
01:09:22,920 --> 01:09:26,920
Speaker 3: Yep, same page there, all right. Second down, let's hit

1342
01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:29,000
Speaker 3: our favorite overdog.

1343
01:09:29,240 --> 01:09:31,360
Speaker 2: It's called the Overdogs parlay.

1344
01:09:31,000 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 3: For those of you new here, that's our favorite favorite

1345
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:39,880
Speaker 3: of the weekend. Last weekend, Colin, you got hooked by UCLA.

1346
01:09:39,960 --> 01:09:42,080
Speaker 3: Now you're hoping that you get in that book this week,

1347
01:09:42,640 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 3: I had Alabama, which got to the window. This week,

1348
01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:50,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. We're able

1349
01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:54,599
Speaker 3: to play all of our favorite clips this week against

1350
01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:56,800
Speaker 3: Mexico State. I don't know when people listen like this

1351
01:09:56,800 --> 01:09:58,080
Speaker 3: comes out to the mornings. I don't know where the

1352
01:09:58,080 --> 01:10:01,640
Speaker 3: market's going to be, but there there's some people that

1353
01:10:01,680 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 3: are on New Mexico State because the numbers come down

1354
01:10:04,160 --> 01:10:06,000
Speaker 3: and then there's some buy back. Then I think it's

1355
01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:08,400
Speaker 3: going to keep floating. Wait see if you can get

1356
01:10:08,400 --> 01:10:09,599
Speaker 3: a ten. So if you can find a ten, if

1357
01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:11,000
Speaker 3: there is a ten out there when you're listening to this,

1358
01:10:11,040 --> 01:10:13,559
Speaker 3: maybe there's nine in that great but try and find that.

1359
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:16,679
Speaker 3: But look, I talked about this earlier in the season.

1360
01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:19,520
Speaker 3: I think New Mexico State came into the season extremely

1361
01:10:19,560 --> 01:10:24,439
Speaker 3: overrated because of what they did last year against Nobody's Hawaii,

1362
01:10:24,520 --> 01:10:28,519
Speaker 3: New Mexico U mass was Lamar Valpo, Bowling Green. These

1363
01:10:28,560 --> 01:10:31,400
Speaker 3: are their wins. And then last year, last year Liberty

1364
01:10:31,479 --> 01:10:35,920
Speaker 3: who quit the Hugh Freeze News, they never showed up.

1365
01:10:35,960 --> 01:10:39,240
Speaker 3: I've talked about this at length. Never twenty four point

1366
01:10:39,280 --> 01:10:42,120
Speaker 3: favorites they lost by I think twenty four. They got

1367
01:10:42,120 --> 01:10:44,479
Speaker 3: blown out, never showed up, don't care the game means something.

1368
01:10:44,520 --> 01:10:47,120
Speaker 3: But they've been thinking about that all summer, a lot

1369
01:10:47,120 --> 01:10:49,360
Speaker 3: of quotes about it. They were embarrassed on their home field.

1370
01:10:49,680 --> 01:10:52,880
Speaker 3: Now New Mexico State comes out again. And by the way,

1371
01:10:52,880 --> 01:10:54,840
Speaker 3: I don't think they've gotten any better New Mexico State.

1372
01:10:54,840 --> 01:10:57,160
Speaker 3: I think their defense has gotten worse. They were twenty

1373
01:10:57,200 --> 01:10:59,800
Speaker 3: four point dogs in that game. The Liberty just quit.

1374
01:10:59,880 --> 01:11:03,600
Speaker 3: Now I can make two touchdowns less Diego Pavia, a

1375
01:11:03,680 --> 01:11:06,479
Speaker 3: quarterback for New Mexico State. He went off again last week,

1376
01:11:06,840 --> 01:11:13,000
Speaker 3: No Dia. That's what he does when he plays absolute

1377
01:11:13,120 --> 01:11:17,360
Speaker 3: junk teams or a corpse of Liberty. He goes off

1378
01:11:17,960 --> 01:11:21,080
Speaker 3: when he doesn't. He's horrendous. And even against U Mass

1379
01:11:21,080 --> 01:11:23,160
Speaker 3: he got benched. If you look at his numbers, he

1380
01:11:23,200 --> 01:11:25,759
Speaker 3: has like thirteen touchdowns and no interceptions against the Corpse

1381
01:11:25,800 --> 01:11:28,200
Speaker 3: of Liberty and the FCS teams, and he's like four

1382
01:11:28,240 --> 01:11:31,000
Speaker 3: touchdowns and eight interceptions in all other games. This offense

1383
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:34,240
Speaker 3: is still bad. I trust Chadwell to have the offense

1384
01:11:34,320 --> 01:11:37,520
Speaker 3: little crisper this week. I make this number over two touchdowns.

1385
01:11:37,880 --> 01:11:40,599
Speaker 3: This new Mexico State team stinks. They just keep getting

1386
01:11:40,600 --> 01:11:44,800
Speaker 3: credit for all these defraudulent wins. Liberty gets its revenge. Liberty, Liberty,

1387
01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:48,800
Speaker 3: and liberty. I've said to these young people repeatedly, and

1388
01:11:48,800 --> 01:11:51,400
Speaker 3: I'll say it again, you are the hope of America.

1389
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:54,920
Speaker 3: When you leave the graduation platform of liberty, I want

1390
01:11:54,960 --> 01:11:58,080
Speaker 3: you to leave it running, leave it running with a

1391
01:11:58,280 --> 01:11:59,920
Speaker 3: vision burning in your soul.

1392
01:12:00,960 --> 01:12:02,960
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with Wake Forest, but it is

1393
01:12:03,080 --> 01:12:06,320
Speaker 2: really a fade of Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt didn't really have a

1394
01:12:06,320 --> 01:12:08,599
Speaker 2: clean box score against Alabama A and M. And if

1395
01:12:08,600 --> 01:12:10,439
Speaker 2: you're quick to go to Action Network and check out

1396
01:12:10,439 --> 01:12:12,680
Speaker 2: the FCS power ratings, Alabama A and M is not

1397
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:16,479
Speaker 2: good even on the FCS level. But they were able

1398
01:12:16,560 --> 01:12:19,759
Speaker 2: to produce a successful rushing attack five yards per carry.

1399
01:12:20,600 --> 01:12:23,280
Speaker 2: They were stuffed below the national average. Vanderbilt couldn't even

1400
01:12:23,280 --> 01:12:25,360
Speaker 2: stop that. The real problem is the fact that Vanderbilt

1401
01:12:25,400 --> 01:12:28,400
Speaker 2: can't throw. With aj Swan, he went fifteen of twenty nine.

1402
01:12:28,520 --> 01:12:32,880
Speaker 2: It was just a radic not efficient, and Vanderbilt cannot

1403
01:12:32,880 --> 01:12:35,559
Speaker 2: throw the ball whatsoever. That's going to go up against

1404
01:12:35,560 --> 01:12:38,920
Speaker 2: a wake Forest team that actually has pretty good coverage ranks.

1405
01:12:39,360 --> 01:12:41,840
Speaker 2: We expected them to be havoc with their defensive coordinator.

1406
01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:44,240
Speaker 2: They always have good tackling. That's going to be a

1407
01:12:44,280 --> 01:12:46,760
Speaker 2: problem for Vanderbilt Hill because they absolutely are not in rhythm.

1408
01:12:46,840 --> 01:12:49,160
Speaker 2: They can't throw the ball. They struggled with Alabama A

1409
01:12:49,240 --> 01:12:51,120
Speaker 2: and M. I make wake Forest all the way up

1410
01:12:51,120 --> 01:12:54,639
Speaker 2: to like fourteen, sitting at minus ten as we're recording

1411
01:12:54,680 --> 01:12:57,960
Speaker 2: this complete one percent fad of Vanderbilt all the way.

1412
01:12:58,320 --> 01:13:02,080
Speaker 3: You're fading your boy, Clark Lee. So we have Liberty

1413
01:13:02,160 --> 01:13:05,040
Speaker 3: and wake favorite overdogs the week well South then written

1414
01:13:05,120 --> 01:13:08,000
Speaker 3: up on actionwork dot Com the Action of workap one

1415
01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:11,719
Speaker 3: final task to get to and that's third down, our

1416
01:13:11,880 --> 01:13:16,520
Speaker 3: underdog moneyline parlay.

1417
01:13:16,400 --> 01:13:21,360
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1418
01:13:21,520 --> 01:13:24,280
Speaker 1: money line Parlay last.

1419
01:13:24,040 --> 01:13:28,120
Speaker 3: Week, Colin I got Louisiana Monroe home for US with

1420
01:13:28,400 --> 01:13:31,360
Speaker 3: Army just started turning over the ball late in that wild,

1421
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:34,840
Speaker 3: ugly game. We won't talk about North Texas, which I

1422
01:13:34,880 --> 01:13:36,800
Speaker 3: also had, So let's try to get both to the

1423
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:39,439
Speaker 3: window this week. I'll start things off small, small underdog

1424
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:42,800
Speaker 3: this week. Let's go Yukon. This is just a fate

1425
01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:45,360
Speaker 3: of what I saw from Georgia State last week, what

1426
01:13:45,439 --> 01:13:47,800
Speaker 3: I saw from the Yukon defense last week, and then

1427
01:13:47,920 --> 01:13:49,920
Speaker 3: the potential at quarterback. And I think it'll even be

1428
01:13:49,960 --> 01:13:53,519
Speaker 3: better in the second week. So I think Yukon's very

1429
01:13:53,560 --> 01:13:59,439
Speaker 3: live here as a small You're Fantasticano, So I think, yeah,

1430
01:13:59,439 --> 01:14:01,519
Speaker 3: I think this game is basically a toss up, So

1431
01:14:01,920 --> 01:14:07,040
Speaker 3: we'll take the money line dog on these small road Huskies.

1432
01:14:07,360 --> 01:14:08,920
Speaker 2: I'm going to go with in C State. I think

1433
01:14:08,920 --> 01:14:10,400
Speaker 2: that they can win this game, no matter if the

1434
01:14:10,400 --> 01:14:12,800
Speaker 2: spread is seven and a half eight seven. Notre Dame

1435
01:14:12,840 --> 01:14:15,120
Speaker 2: coming back down. Sam Hartman coming back down to acc

1436
01:14:15,280 --> 01:14:18,400
Speaker 2: territory to take on a defensive coordinator that has absolutely

1437
01:14:19,160 --> 01:14:23,800
Speaker 2: made him look Clark Kenton not superman. Sam Hartman three

1438
01:14:23,840 --> 01:14:26,559
Speaker 2: interceptions the last two times a piece that he faced

1439
01:14:26,600 --> 01:14:28,679
Speaker 2: Tony Gibson in the three three five of the wolf Pack.

1440
01:14:29,120 --> 01:14:33,080
Speaker 2: His worst adjustment completion percentage of twenty twenty two came

1441
01:14:33,640 --> 01:14:35,880
Speaker 2: against in C State and they're three three five. I'll

1442
01:14:35,880 --> 01:14:37,960
Speaker 2: take Tony Gibbs on the defensive side every time in

1443
01:14:38,040 --> 01:14:38,760
Speaker 2: C State to win.

1444
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:43,840
Speaker 3: Outright. Good stuff there as always. Thanks to Colin for

1445
01:14:43,920 --> 01:14:46,320
Speaker 3: joining me. Thanks to audio and video producers on the

1446
01:14:46,320 --> 01:14:48,599
Speaker 3: back end, never get enough credit, and of course thanks

1447
01:14:48,640 --> 01:14:50,439
Speaker 3: to all of you. Leave a five star if you

1448
01:14:50,479 --> 01:14:52,800
Speaker 3: all do giveaways on a recap show. By the way,

1449
01:14:52,840 --> 01:14:55,240
Speaker 3: we be recapping the weekend and doing voicemails. Don't forget

1450
01:14:55,240 --> 01:14:57,479
Speaker 3: about the voicemails nine to five nine dead beat. I

1451
01:14:57,520 --> 01:14:59,360
Speaker 3: want to hear from you all weekend, especially during these

1452
01:14:59,360 --> 01:15:02,280
Speaker 3: market games. Y'ell's scream about.

1453
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:04,559
Speaker 2: Whatever, James Franklin your voice.

1454
01:15:04,479 --> 01:15:06,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, anything you want. Hopefully you can avoid the bad

1455
01:15:06,960 --> 01:15:09,880
Speaker 3: beats this weekend. I'll award a caller of the week,

1456
01:15:10,160 --> 01:15:12,240
Speaker 3: give them some giveaways, and anyone leaves five star review,

1457
01:15:12,360 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 3: we'll do a bunch of giveaways next week as well.

1458
01:15:14,520 --> 01:15:16,320
Speaker 3: You can say whatever those really help us out and

1459
01:15:16,360 --> 01:15:18,840
Speaker 3: we'll be back ten thirty am Eastern. Also for Big

1460
01:15:18,840 --> 01:15:21,880
Speaker 3: Bets on Campus Live we'll talk updated odds and the

1461
01:15:21,920 --> 01:15:25,160
Speaker 3: biggest matchups of the day with myself, Colin and Brett

1462
01:15:25,200 --> 01:15:28,559
Speaker 3: McMurphy also talk with the Universal of Love Darren Level

1463
01:15:28,640 --> 01:15:31,720
Speaker 3: for Market Report. Another Calvaries will join us too, so

1464
01:15:31,760 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 3: it's a great show. Make sure you check that out

1465
01:15:33,360 --> 01:15:37,240
Speaker 3: ten thirty am Eastern you didn't already. Also a reminder

1466
01:15:37,320 --> 01:15:40,799
Speaker 3: to check out the group of five guys and that'll

1467
01:15:40,800 --> 01:15:44,479
Speaker 3: do it for us till next time. We'll catch you

1468
01:15:44,479 --> 01:15:45,160
Speaker 3: all later. Cheers.

1469
01:15:45,720 --> 01:15:46,439
Speaker 2: Peace Out.

1470
01:15:58,520 --> 01:16:03,040
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly. If you or

1471
01:16:03,080 --> 01:16:05,880
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1472
01:16:05,880 --> 01:16:09,000
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler