WEBVTT - Vaccine Hesitancy and Refusal

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>New York City's mayor getting ready uh two looks like

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<v Speaker 1>halt indoor dining. He says, it's just a matter of time.

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<v Speaker 1>We also have US COVID hospitalizations near eighty thousand as

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<v Speaker 1>records are toppled daily, And then we also had on

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<v Speaker 1>the flip side, moderna vaccine production. It's gearing up that

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<v Speaker 1>according to its partner and Oxford to study confirming it's

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<v Speaker 1>astra Zeneca COVID shot response in elderly specifically, there's been

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the kind of yin and yang when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to COVID nineteen news this week, let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about it. Dr Daniel Salmon is Director of the Institute

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<v Speaker 1>for Eccine Safety and Professor of International Health at the

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<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The Johns Hopkins

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg School of Public House supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, Founder,

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg LP, and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Dr Salomon joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Baltimore. Good afternoon. Nice to have you

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<v Speaker 1>here at Good afternoon. Thanks for having me. So, tell

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<v Speaker 1>me a little bit about when you look at the headlines,

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<v Speaker 1>I do feel like it's you know, a step forward

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<v Speaker 1>as a couple of steps back, and when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to progress on a vaccine, but we know that's still

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<v Speaker 1>going to take a while. And then of course we

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<v Speaker 1>continue to see the numbers going up here in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States and really globally. How would you assess the

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<v Speaker 1>situation at this point, Well, from an issue of COVID disease,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, we're seeing huge amounts of disease, and as

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<v Speaker 1>you've described in your preamble, there's you know, increases in

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalization solve really concerning and uh, it's likely to get

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<v Speaker 1>worse before it gets better, you know. The vaccine side, well,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems to be good news but their press releases,

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<v Speaker 1>this is based on so very very few people have

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<v Speaker 1>seen the data. I haven't seen the data, and the

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<v Speaker 1>press releases sound great, but we really need to see

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<v Speaker 1>the data. We need to see how effective it is

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<v Speaker 1>among whom and what exactly is effective in is it

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<v Speaker 1>preventing any disease? Is preventing serious disease? Does the effectivenesssary

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<v Speaker 1>by population? Doesn't prevent transmission of disease? And presumably the

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<v Speaker 1>safety profile looks good if they wouldn't or they wouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>have put out a press release. But so we really

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<v Speaker 1>need to see the data. I mean this is these

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<v Speaker 1>are press releases. Yeah, well, I think that is like

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<v Speaker 1>a brilliant point because listen, they are most of them

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<v Speaker 1>publicly health companies. I think all of them are publicly

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<v Speaker 1>health companies, and so they can't certainly make statements that

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<v Speaker 1>might financially alter what investors see or you know, if

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<v Speaker 1>they promised too much so and so forth. Right, there's

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<v Speaker 1>rules when it comes to putting this stuff out. But

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, data is data, there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>data that we are still we've collected but still need

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<v Speaker 1>to collect. When it comes to COVID nineteen, it's impact

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<v Speaker 1>on different populations, but also how you treat different populations

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<v Speaker 1>and how those treatment you know, impact different populations. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>so I think that's all true. And likewise, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of data on these vaccines that we haven't seen.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, when we evaluate a vaccine, it's not based

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<v Speaker 1>on press releases. So the next step is that FDA

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<v Speaker 1>has an advisory committee called bur PACK, the Vaccines and

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<v Speaker 1>Related Biologic Product Advisory Committee, and these data are going

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<v Speaker 1>to go in front of a pack and you're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have external, independent scientists that are really going to carefully

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<v Speaker 1>review the data and then make a recommendation f d

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<v Speaker 1>A and those meetings are open to available to the public.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's a really important step because that's an opportunity

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<v Speaker 1>for the scientific and the clinical community to see the

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<v Speaker 1>data and to have independent experts wig in on it.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's also a chance for the public to see

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<v Speaker 1>how this all works and based their views not on

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<v Speaker 1>things they meet on the internet or or press releases,

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<v Speaker 1>but by having signed it take or that's transparent after

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<v Speaker 1>go ahead. No, I was gonna say, you know, and

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<v Speaker 1>I've said this a couple of times on our air,

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<v Speaker 1>that we you know, as a public are are seeing

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<v Speaker 1>how this problem. Normally, yeah, yeah, we hear about a

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<v Speaker 1>drug and it's approved and it's years of testing, and

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<v Speaker 1>we don't really pay as much attention right until the

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<v Speaker 1>doctor says, here, here's a prescription for x y Z.

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<v Speaker 1>But we are really learning and seeing this process. I

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<v Speaker 1>want to dig a little bit deeper. I mean in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of the data specifically, what is it that you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to be looking for. Well, I'm going to be

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<v Speaker 1>looking at what outcomes were examined and what the efficacy

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<v Speaker 1>was for those outcomes. So I'm interested in, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>did it prevent disease altogether or did it prevent clinical disease,

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<v Speaker 1>and what's the difference between that. What's the difference. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we know with COVID that lots of people have sent

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<v Speaker 1>don't have symptoms, but have disease, right, and that's why

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<v Speaker 1>the mass recommendation changed. Um, many infectious diseases, you're not

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<v Speaker 1>infectious to other people until you have symptoms. So initially

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<v Speaker 1>the recommendations were if you don't feel good, stay at home,

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<v Speaker 1>which makes a lot of sense. But then when we

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<v Speaker 1>discovered you have people that have disease and transmit disease,

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<v Speaker 1>but they don't have any symptoms. That's when the mass

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<v Speaker 1>recommendation came in, because if staying at home when you

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<v Speaker 1>feel sick isn't enough. And so whether or not the

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine prevents subclinical disease is important. Um doesn't prevent more

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<v Speaker 1>serious disease, and if so, maybe maybe even more so

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<v Speaker 1>than it prevents disease. I mean, they're talking effectiveness. That's

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<v Speaker 1>very good, But there are vaccines, like for the flu,

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<v Speaker 1>where it's moderately effective in preventing influenza, but it's even

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<v Speaker 1>better at preventing serious disease. That's important. And how long

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<v Speaker 1>does that protection last, that's a really important question. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to know. We're not going to know for

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<v Speaker 1>a while. I actually cut up with the Modern CEO

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<v Speaker 1>earlier today for a Bloomberg panel and Bloomberg event, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, he did point out that he said what

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<v Speaker 1>was significant about their developments was that it was for

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<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of your more serious cases of COVID. Yeah, so,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean that's important, that's helpful. My preference would be

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine that prevents all disease and therefore prevents any

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<v Speaker 1>transmission of disease, and you get one or two shots

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<v Speaker 1>and it lasts forever um. That's a very high standard

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<v Speaker 1>and doubts any vaccine all of that. Mr Salmon, you

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<v Speaker 1>know you you know about obviously vaccine development, you understand distribution,

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<v Speaker 1>you understand safety, the process that we're happening, even though

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<v Speaker 1>it's happening much more quickly. Do you feel comfortable about it?

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<v Speaker 1>Do you have confidence in it? Yeah, that's a great question,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm really glad you're asking it because I do.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think there's a lot of this number out

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<v Speaker 1>there because it's called operation warp speed and it's happening

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<v Speaker 1>so quickly that that somehow safety is being short and

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<v Speaker 1>that's not the case. These are very large clinical trials

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<v Speaker 1>and as long as the process continues using our normal

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<v Speaker 1>mechanisms and having external review, I'm very comfortable with the process.

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<v Speaker 1>And it's it's important that people understand this. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think what's also important you started talking about it before

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<v Speaker 1>before the break, you talked about you know, when you

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<v Speaker 1>evaluate a vaccine, you go, you know, it's not on

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<v Speaker 1>the press releases that there will be independent scientists right

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<v Speaker 1>who are going to review this. They will ultimately make recommendations.

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<v Speaker 1>It's not just the company data correct it's not just

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<v Speaker 1>government officials. I mean there are outside independent right. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry you cut out for a second. I thought

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<v Speaker 1>you you paused. Um, it's a really important point. And

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about the verpack and FDAs advisory committee, but

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<v Speaker 1>CDC has an advisory committee to that has evolved. Once

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<v Speaker 1>FDA gives approval for use UM and then goes to

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC and they turned to their advisory committee on

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<v Speaker 1>Immunization Practice, and they look at all the data and

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<v Speaker 1>they make recommendations for who should get the vaccine, if

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<v Speaker 1>anybody is contraindicated and they shouldn't get it, and how

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<v Speaker 1>many doses, and what what spacing, and where the prioritization is,

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<v Speaker 1>who should get it first, and all of that, again

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<v Speaker 1>is done by independent scientists, and it's done with transparency.

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<v Speaker 1>Those meetings are open to the public. Now, these advisory

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<v Speaker 1>committees don't make the decision. They make recommendations, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>up to the agencies, the FDA or the CDC to

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<v Speaker 1>accept those decisions, which they usually do. So this is

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<v Speaker 1>a process that's been around for a long time and

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<v Speaker 1>it has a long track history of working well and

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<v Speaker 1>making sure that vaccines that are used widely are very

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<v Speaker 1>safe and at least reasonably effective, that the benefits outweigh

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<v Speaker 1>the risk for those populations that are recommended. So you're

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<v Speaker 1>asking me if I'm comfortable. I'm saying I am, as

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<v Speaker 1>long as it goes through this process, which it is,

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<v Speaker 1>and the public needs to see this. The public needs

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<v Speaker 1>to see that these are decisions that are made on

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<v Speaker 1>evidence and science and viewed by external experts to be fair.

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<v Speaker 1>And I just because you understand this a whole lot

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<v Speaker 1>more than I do. Um, the the process has gone

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<v Speaker 1>from a decade to essentially a year right before you know,

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<v Speaker 1>give or take a few months or so before it

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<v Speaker 1>kind of rolls out to everyone. What is the risk

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<v Speaker 1>in that you don't have maybe ten years of study,

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<v Speaker 1>or you don't have years after someone's been given a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine to kind of track what the longer term impact is.

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<v Speaker 1>Do we need to be at least a little cautious

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<v Speaker 1>about something like that? Well, I think we need to

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<v Speaker 1>be very cautious about everything, and a lot of the

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<v Speaker 1>ways that this is speed had been sped up doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>cause any concerns. Scientifically, we did very large studies of

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<v Speaker 1>multiple products at the same time, and we put tremendous

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<v Speaker 1>resources into recruiting people for those studies. So the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that that's done faster, as long as it's done well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's fine. One of the biggest ways that we've of

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<v Speaker 1>time is that the vaccine has been manufactured prior to

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<v Speaker 1>the results of the phase three studies. That is a

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<v Speaker 1>big financial risk. Normally, you see the results of phase

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<v Speaker 1>three studies and if it looks good, you build manufacturing capacity.

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<v Speaker 1>In this case, that capacity was built earlier, so there's

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<v Speaker 1>financial risk there, but there's not risk of there being

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<v Speaker 1>a problem. If the vaccine turns out to be not

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<v Speaker 1>suitable for use, then you've wasted all that money, but

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<v Speaker 1>you haven't hurt anybody. So these these processes I think

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<v Speaker 1>are very solid. Um. One of the questions you asked was, well,

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<v Speaker 1>what about something that has a long term safety problem?

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<v Speaker 1>And you know right now the standard is that people

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<v Speaker 1>have to have been studied for at least sixty days,

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<v Speaker 1>and most adverse reactions that happened after a vaccine happened

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<v Speaker 1>in the first sixty days. But there is some possibility

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<v Speaker 1>if it's something that took six months to develop, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you're not going to find that out until you wait,

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<v Speaker 1>so at the end, you have to balance risks and benefits,

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<v Speaker 1>and known risks and known benefits. And we're, as you've described,

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<v Speaker 1>in the pandemic situation where disease is increasing quickly, the

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<v Speaker 1>hospitalizations are increasing, and pretty soon the deaths are going

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<v Speaker 1>to start increasing. Economy has had major hits, so you

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<v Speaker 1>have to make the decision based on the best developble evidence.

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<v Speaker 1>What matters is that the science is driving the decisions,

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<v Speaker 1>that it's free from politics, free from other factors, that

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<v Speaker 1>this is evidence based decisions. We're gonna leave it on

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<v Speaker 1>that note, because that's a great way to wrap it up.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Salmon, Thank you so much, greatly appreciated. Dr Daniel Salmon,

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<v Speaker 1>Director of the Institute for Vaccine Safety and Professor of

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<v Speaker 1>International Health at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>this is among our most read stories, uh and it's

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<v Speaker 1>one reporter for Bloomberg Business Week. It's about something that

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<v Speaker 1>we were all trying to get back in the spring.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking about lisol and how there seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>more than ever but guess what, it's still not enough

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<v Speaker 1>for the US. So let's get into it with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business WEE get it or Joe Webber. He's on the

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<v Speaker 1>access line from Brooklyn, also with US Bloomberg News team

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<v Speaker 1>leader for US Healthcare. He wrote it. Drew Armstrong. He's

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City, Joel, I gotta

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<v Speaker 1>tell you back in the spring, I could not get

0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:18.240
<v Speaker 1>Lisolf for nothing. Yeah, you weren't alone. I don't think

0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:20.160
<v Speaker 1>anybody else could. And when you could, when you did

0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:22.679
<v Speaker 1>see it, you you know, immediately hoarded it and it

0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:25.760
<v Speaker 1>was one of the great hoarding items. Um. And you know,

0:12:25.800 --> 0:12:28.120
<v Speaker 1>back then, there were a couple of stories like that

0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:30.320
<v Speaker 1>that I was really interested in. And you know, one

0:12:30.440 --> 0:12:32.679
<v Speaker 1>was three m you know, how do you make how

0:12:32.720 --> 0:12:36.199
<v Speaker 1>do you make more? In masks? Yesterday? And we did

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.319
<v Speaker 1>that one as a cover story, and the lights on

0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.120
<v Speaker 1>one just stuck with me because I was like, boy,

0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:45.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm really curious how you make more Lisol? And Drew

0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:48.840
<v Speaker 1>Armstrong actually happened to have that same kind of urge

0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 1>and came back with a fully realized story that is

0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:56.000
<v Speaker 1>one of my favorites from sort of pandemic times, Drew,

0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:59.640
<v Speaker 1>how do you make more Lisol? So, yeah, I start

0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:03.080
<v Speaker 1>ask that question, UM earlier this year, you know, for

0:13:03.120 --> 0:13:05.520
<v Speaker 1>exactly the same reason you guys, because I couldn't find

0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:10.520
<v Speaker 1>it anywhere. And you know this company that makes a record,

0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:12.800
<v Speaker 1>UM Ben Keyser. It's a London company. They are a

0:13:12.800 --> 0:13:15.880
<v Speaker 1>big consumer conglomerate. And one of the things you find

0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:18.960
<v Speaker 1>from UM reading about this is that you know, there's

0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.640
<v Speaker 1>this massive company with huge resources, but you know, they

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>have this relatively thin, delicate supply chain that's stretched all

0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.360
<v Speaker 1>over the US and all over the world. And when

0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic really you know, did two things. One just

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:35.760
<v Speaker 1>put their demand through the roof for this product, but

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:39.839
<v Speaker 1>to you know, just absolutely upset all of the kind

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:42.080
<v Speaker 1>of global trade and even the U. S trade and

0:13:42.160 --> 0:13:43.839
<v Speaker 1>you know, all the kind of things that you need

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.680
<v Speaker 1>to make stuff in a factory in the world that

0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:49.680
<v Speaker 1>we live in. It it really jumbled their world. And

0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:51.840
<v Speaker 1>so they were they were great about opening the door

0:13:52.040 --> 0:13:55.079
<v Speaker 1>and telling us, you know how they did everything from

0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:59.920
<v Speaker 1>like flying seven seven full of chemicals from Europe to

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.640
<v Speaker 1>the US as they can make more whites and lightsol

0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:06.120
<v Speaker 1>spray UM. At one point they were starting to run

0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:08.920
<v Speaker 1>out of ethanol, which is one of the main ingredients

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:11.960
<v Speaker 1>of Lysol. So it happened that Americans weren't driving as

0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 1>much because they were all staying home. And ethanol the

0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:18.200
<v Speaker 1>important gasoline additive. So they retooled a ethanol plant in

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:22.000
<v Speaker 1>Nebraska and makes ethanol for gasoline and just shipped Twane

0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:25.000
<v Speaker 1>cars with these, you know, thirty thousand gallons tanks of

0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:29.240
<v Speaker 1>ethanol to their factory in New Jersey. It's just fascinating

0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 1>to hear about all the things that they did in

0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.200
<v Speaker 1>order to, you know, keep this stuff blowing and still

0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:35.720
<v Speaker 1>have not been at all. This is one of the

0:14:35.840 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>stories man, You know, you could just sit down and

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 1>talk about for a long time because it's just interesting

0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:42.240
<v Speaker 1>facets something we take for granted, right, but you really

0:14:42.320 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 1>dug into kind of the nuts and bolts of it.

0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>Tell us though, and I have to say, on our

0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.360
<v Speaker 1>planning call this morning, we were all getting into it.

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:52.560
<v Speaker 1>Tell us about Mr Lysol and Flushing Meadows. Sure. So

0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:56.120
<v Speaker 1>there's a guy at a record called Joe Robino. He

0:14:56.160 --> 0:14:59.280
<v Speaker 1>has been he has worked on Lysol for thirty five

0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:04.360
<v Speaker 1>some years through its previous owners. He's a microbiologist. Um,

0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:06.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, there's a there's a little red banner on

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:11.840
<v Speaker 1>the Lysol can which says kills nine percent of germs.

0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.360
<v Speaker 1>And you know that's that clings. Everyone has to look

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 1>at the chloroxy does everybody makes the same claim. But

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.440
<v Speaker 1>they were actually the first people to do the research

0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.800
<v Speaker 1>to show that. And one of the things that they did,

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:25.640
<v Speaker 1>um in the early days of this product back in

0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.600
<v Speaker 1>the in the very early sorry how did the early product,

0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 1>but back in kind of his early on in his

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>career in the early nineties, they would do stuff like

0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:37.880
<v Speaker 1>cope a toy ball with a harmless virus and put

0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.280
<v Speaker 1>it into a daycare and they go around swabbing everything

0:15:40.280 --> 0:15:43.520
<v Speaker 1>to figure out, you know, where did this virus go. Um,

0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.400
<v Speaker 1>they did the same thing in hotel rooms with people

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 1>who had cold. They're really trying to understand the microbiology

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:51.880
<v Speaker 1>aspects of what their products could kill. And one of

0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 1>the things that they studied was, you know, just how

0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:56.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, if you have basically a plateful of you know,

0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:00.280
<v Speaker 1>germs to microbes, you know, viruses or bacteria, how much

0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:03.240
<v Speaker 1>does it actually kill? And you know, he was talking

0:16:03.280 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>to me as he was explaining as one of many

0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:06.840
<v Speaker 1>conversations we had, he said, well, we had a you

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:08.720
<v Speaker 1>know a three log or four log or even a

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:14.400
<v Speaker 1>five log reduction and what that actually means is nine. UM.

0:16:14.440 --> 0:16:16.160
<v Speaker 1>The marketing folks took a look at that and they said,

0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 1>people love the idea of we gotta put this on

0:16:18.720 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>the camp um And that's kind of the history of

0:16:20.880 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 1>where that number comes from and disinfecting. UM. If they

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:27.040
<v Speaker 1>were the first to make it, now everybody everybody does

0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:28.800
<v Speaker 1>it actually does a lot more than that. But you know,

0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:32.000
<v Speaker 1>there is a tremendous amount of research, quotes, scientific and

0:16:32.040 --> 0:16:35.040
<v Speaker 1>consumer that goes on behind these products. UM to figure

0:16:35.040 --> 0:16:38.920
<v Speaker 1>it out. You mentioned Flushing Meadows, my favorite place in

0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 1>this whole story. Say, light Bulb makes a toilet bowl cleaner,

0:16:42.600 --> 0:16:45.440
<v Speaker 1>and UM, you know, if you make a toilet bowl cleaner,

0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.480
<v Speaker 1>you're always changing and tweaking your product. You're introducing new

0:16:48.760 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, formulations, things like that. You have to test

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>it and if you sell your toilet bowl cleaner around

0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:56.600
<v Speaker 1>the world, you have to test it in toilets around

0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.560
<v Speaker 1>the world. So they have a room. It's Room A

0:16:59.680 --> 0:17:02.640
<v Speaker 1>one five four in Montvale, New Jersey, and there's a

0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.320
<v Speaker 1>hundred four toilets brought in from around the world. There's

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.399
<v Speaker 1>a UK road, there's a European Union row, there's an

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:12.280
<v Speaker 1>American row of toilets, there's an Indian row of toilets,

0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:14.600
<v Speaker 1>and they have a back room where they actually replicate

0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.359
<v Speaker 1>the water conditions from around the world to match those places,

0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:21.680
<v Speaker 1>and little robotic arms that flush each toilet on kind

0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:24.879
<v Speaker 1>of the you know, typical home schedule of toilet use

0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.479
<v Speaker 1>for say, you know the people in the United Kingdom,

0:17:27.760 --> 0:17:29.639
<v Speaker 1>and you'll be standing in this room and all of

0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:33.200
<v Speaker 1>a sudden you'll hear sixteen toilets, you know from France,

0:17:33.280 --> 0:17:36.560
<v Speaker 1>all flush at once. That is how you test toilet

0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:41.240
<v Speaker 1>bowl cleaner. It's really it was a fascinating, fascinating and

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:44.439
<v Speaker 1>also probably the best photograph we published all year, just

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:48.240
<v Speaker 1>to see, you know, a testing a testing center of toilets.

0:17:48.760 --> 0:17:50.840
<v Speaker 1>I want to bring it back to the flagship product

0:17:50.840 --> 0:17:54.440
<v Speaker 1>though you mentioned um ethanol being one of the main ingredients.

0:17:54.960 --> 0:17:58.720
<v Speaker 1>What are the ingredients that go into lysol? And and

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 1>just like, how did is that whole manufacturing side really

0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:06.119
<v Speaker 1>come together? Because they're producing upwards of a million cans

0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:08.879
<v Speaker 1>a day at this point, right, Yeah, So they have

0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:12.199
<v Speaker 1>a plant in a suburb area of New Jersey. They

0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:14.479
<v Speaker 1>actually asked me not to see where it is because

0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:16.960
<v Speaker 1>demand has been so crazy that they were worried that

0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:19.960
<v Speaker 1>people would start showing up outside the plant. They don't

0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:21.840
<v Speaker 1>really have a lot of security there or anything like that,

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:23.920
<v Speaker 1>and they don't want to have to hire it um,

0:18:24.119 --> 0:18:27.480
<v Speaker 1>but they you know, there's a rail there's a rail

0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:29.640
<v Speaker 1>siding that runs up to the plant, and these rail

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:33.000
<v Speaker 1>cars that I mentioned, there's these thirty thousand gallons giant, black,

0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.200
<v Speaker 1>hulking rail cars. They drop off a hundred twenty two

0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 1>hundred and fifty sorry I think hundred twenty thousand gallons

0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:44.679
<v Speaker 1>of ethanol a day. Ethanol is a solvent. What it

0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:49.000
<v Speaker 1>does with a virus like covid, like the coronavirus, is

0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:52.040
<v Speaker 1>it essentially coronavirus is a little bit of genetic material

0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.080
<v Speaker 1>in a lipid wrapper o lipid skin. Ethanol gets in

0:18:55.080 --> 0:18:59.720
<v Speaker 1>there essentially tears lipids apart and it renders it inert um.

0:18:59.760 --> 0:19:04.240
<v Speaker 1>There's another chemical called a quat quaternary and aluminium fault

0:19:04.320 --> 0:19:07.240
<v Speaker 1>I believe right. It's another key component. And then after

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:09.040
<v Speaker 1>that kind of sent they put all this stuff together.

0:19:09.119 --> 0:19:12.240
<v Speaker 1>They call it the juice. They manufacture it, you know,

0:19:12.680 --> 0:19:14.600
<v Speaker 1>met like tens of thousand gallons, thinks. But it goes

0:19:14.640 --> 0:19:16.679
<v Speaker 1>into the cans and a little bit of Chaine as

0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.280
<v Speaker 1>a propellant and onto your store. It's pretty amazing. I've

0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:22.119
<v Speaker 1>got to say that we were waiting weeks recently for

0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:23.800
<v Speaker 1>some Lisol wipes and when they came in, it was

0:19:23.840 --> 0:19:28.160
<v Speaker 1>like celebration at our house. It's pretty remarkable, UM threw

0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 1>only like you can do. It's a great story, UM,

0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:32.480
<v Speaker 1>and everybody should check it out. I'll put it on Twitter.

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:35.920
<v Speaker 1>Drew Armstrong, team leader for US Healthcare Bloomberg News along

0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:38.480
<v Speaker 1>we Tell Webber, editor of Bloomberg Business Week. Check out

0:19:38.480 --> 0:19:42.080
<v Speaker 1>the new issue a business Week online, on newsstands and

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:45.520
<v Speaker 1>of course on the Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week

0:19:45.680 --> 0:19:50.000
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Masser from Bloomberg Radio. There's one company and

0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:52.560
<v Speaker 1>stuff that we wanted to bring to your attention, especially

0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:54.679
<v Speaker 1>as we get ready for the holiday shopping season. Just

0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:58.080
<v Speaker 1>around the corner. Macy's had quite a swing today. It

0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.040
<v Speaker 1>was down ten percent at its lows, up almost three

0:20:01.080 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>percent at its highs. Right now it's up about two

0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:07.080
<v Speaker 1>in the trade, and that's after the company reported its

0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:10.159
<v Speaker 1>latest quarterly results. Let's get into it with Bloomberg Intelligence

0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Senior US Retail Alice put him Goyle. She is with

0:20:12.920 --> 0:20:15.320
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone in New Jersey, Pudham. So nice

0:20:15.320 --> 0:20:18.399
<v Speaker 1>to have you here. How are you? I'm good, Thanks

0:20:18.400 --> 0:20:21.320
<v Speaker 1>for loving me, Harol, Well, good to have you here. Um.

0:20:21.359 --> 0:20:24.320
<v Speaker 1>How's Macy's doing. I can't tell from the trade today

0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:27.000
<v Speaker 1>because it was all over the map, it was, you know.

0:20:27.040 --> 0:20:28.760
<v Speaker 1>I think I think macy Is the story is kind

0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:30.960
<v Speaker 1>of the same with everyone else that has recorded so far,

0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:34.280
<v Speaker 1>where you're seeing a marked improvement from where we were

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:37.280
<v Speaker 1>in March and April. So you're seeing a progression where

0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 1>comps have gotten better, stores have opened, but they're still down.

0:20:41.560 --> 0:20:44.680
<v Speaker 1>That's that digital is on fire. And and we see

0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:47.199
<v Speaker 1>this across the board, not only a Macy's, where digital

0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:51.000
<v Speaker 1>sales they're now representing roughly forty of total fails and

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.959
<v Speaker 1>that's probably going to accelerate over the holidays as stories

0:20:55.040 --> 0:20:58.200
<v Speaker 1>can handle the higher capacity and the viruses. The cases

0:20:58.240 --> 0:21:00.800
<v Speaker 1>are actually rising. So we think digital is where the

0:21:00.800 --> 0:21:04.520
<v Speaker 1>focus is right now. Macy's is doing kind of everything

0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>right really at the moment, I would say to get

0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.359
<v Speaker 1>customers to shop with it, go figure. And the CEO

0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:13.560
<v Speaker 1>did say that the digital business is growing at quote

0:21:13.560 --> 0:21:16.600
<v Speaker 1>an aggressive rate. So listen, you and I have talked

0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:19.760
<v Speaker 1>so much about the retail sector. You know, macy specifically,

0:21:19.800 --> 0:21:21.919
<v Speaker 1>it's just one of those iconic brands, right, they've just

0:21:21.960 --> 0:21:25.040
<v Speaker 1>been around forever. But we also know retail is going

0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:27.919
<v Speaker 1>through disruption, innovation just you know, like a lot of

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:32.640
<v Speaker 1>other industries. But you know, we've been overstored, overmauled. Macy's,

0:21:32.640 --> 0:21:34.720
<v Speaker 1>as you said, is doing everything right. So what is

0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:39.480
<v Speaker 1>the retailer that they ultimately need to be to survive

0:21:39.680 --> 0:21:42.359
<v Speaker 1>for another How many years have they been around? Is

0:21:42.359 --> 0:21:45.480
<v Speaker 1>it a hundred years? I don't know, it's a hundred

0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:48.359
<v Speaker 1>and sixty, yeah, okay, So can they be around for

0:21:48.359 --> 0:21:49.800
<v Speaker 1>the next century? And what do they need to do

0:21:49.880 --> 0:21:53.000
<v Speaker 1>to kind of to do that? Sure, I think department

0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:54.960
<v Speaker 1>stores in general need to look at their fleet. Again,

0:21:55.240 --> 0:21:58.000
<v Speaker 1>we've already seen the big foosh on digital and really

0:21:58.040 --> 0:22:01.360
<v Speaker 1>the disruption that we were expecting from digital, meaning going

0:22:01.359 --> 0:22:06.520
<v Speaker 1>from penetration, happened in a matter of six months already.

0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:09.040
<v Speaker 1>So that's happening, and we think it's here to stay.

0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:12.119
<v Speaker 1>We think, you know, higher digital penetration rates will persist

0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:17.040
<v Speaker 1>even past the pandemic and retailers could reach equilibrium, especially

0:22:17.119 --> 0:22:20.119
<v Speaker 1>these department stores where a large portion of their sales

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:22.359
<v Speaker 1>will come from the online platform. So what does this

0:22:22.480 --> 0:22:26.000
<v Speaker 1>mean for stores? It means that they can have these large,

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:31.040
<v Speaker 1>oversize you know, bigger stores. Macy stores average over a

0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:35.640
<v Speaker 1>hundred thousands, and they're huge and there's so much in there.

0:22:35.680 --> 0:22:37.960
<v Speaker 1>So consumers they're now looking for, you know, spaces where

0:22:37.960 --> 0:22:40.120
<v Speaker 1>they can go quickly in and out of. They don't

0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:42.880
<v Speaker 1>want to have to run from one department to another

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:45.280
<v Speaker 1>and kind of shop the way their grandparents shopped, if

0:22:45.280 --> 0:22:47.919
<v Speaker 1>you would say. Um, so they need to work on that,

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:50.399
<v Speaker 1>and they are. They've made small steps. You know, they

0:22:50.440 --> 0:22:52.800
<v Speaker 1>have their market at Macy stores where they're rolling out

0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:55.800
<v Speaker 1>a new small store format. But at the end of

0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:58.320
<v Speaker 1>the day, as that accelerates, they need to still think

0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:00.840
<v Speaker 1>about their bigger boxes and downside some So let me

0:23:00.920 --> 0:23:02.600
<v Speaker 1>just you know, I'm gonna go back to digital sales

0:23:02.640 --> 0:23:04.320
<v Speaker 1>because I'm just kind of looking through the numbers and

0:23:04.359 --> 0:23:06.359
<v Speaker 1>forgive me, and we kind of covered a little bit

0:23:06.400 --> 0:23:10.520
<v Speaker 1>of this, but I mean digital sales they were up

0:23:10.720 --> 0:23:14.240
<v Speaker 1>versus the same quarter last year, but the second quarter

0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:19.560
<v Speaker 1>they were up fifty year over year. Is that a problem? No,

0:23:19.760 --> 0:23:22.200
<v Speaker 1>not at all, because um, in the second quarter, stores

0:23:22.240 --> 0:23:24.959
<v Speaker 1>were closed, so there was no other outlet to go. Okay, right,

0:23:25.000 --> 0:23:27.159
<v Speaker 1>but if you look at the total sales, total sales

0:23:27.200 --> 0:23:31.240
<v Speaker 1>progression has actually moderated as the year has progressed. So overall,

0:23:31.240 --> 0:23:34.000
<v Speaker 1>it's encouraging time. So help me out because I like

0:23:34.119 --> 0:23:37.280
<v Speaker 1>chopping digitally and I will definitely go I'll try new places.

0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:39.080
<v Speaker 1>I'll go to definitely the places. I know. What is

0:23:39.119 --> 0:23:41.360
<v Speaker 1>Macy's need to do. Who is their customer and how

0:23:41.359 --> 0:23:45.560
<v Speaker 1>do they keep them engaged on a digital platform? Yeah,

0:23:45.560 --> 0:23:48.440
<v Speaker 1>and their customers everyone, So it's all demographics. But where

0:23:48.440 --> 0:23:52.680
<v Speaker 1>they're gravitating towards the younger millennial gen Z customer, and

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:56.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, traditionally they've had a much harder time attracting

0:23:56.200 --> 0:23:59.000
<v Speaker 1>that customer. But over the past six months, it seems

0:23:59.000 --> 0:24:00.680
<v Speaker 1>that they made a lot of problem growth and part

0:24:00.680 --> 0:24:03.440
<v Speaker 1>of that progress came through their digital efforts that they've

0:24:03.480 --> 0:24:07.080
<v Speaker 1>stepped up. So the rollout of curbside has really boosted

0:24:07.160 --> 0:24:10.200
<v Speaker 1>their image to that millennial customer that probably doesn't want

0:24:10.200 --> 0:24:12.280
<v Speaker 1>to go into a store, but hey, if you want

0:24:12.320 --> 0:24:14.960
<v Speaker 1>things within the next day or even the same day,

0:24:15.240 --> 0:24:16.840
<v Speaker 1>you can just drive off and pick it up. So

0:24:16.880 --> 0:24:19.760
<v Speaker 1>that's been a huge plus for the retailer. Um not

0:24:19.880 --> 0:24:22.080
<v Speaker 1>just Macy's, but even Coals. In fact, Coal said a

0:24:22.160 --> 0:24:25.240
<v Speaker 1>third of their digital demand was picked up at them,

0:24:25.560 --> 0:24:28.000
<v Speaker 1>a third of their pickup demand was picked up at

0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:30.399
<v Speaker 1>the curb. That's pretty promising my kind of shopping. I'm

0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 1>gonna say, give me out of the stores. Hey, one

0:24:32.840 --> 0:24:34.399
<v Speaker 1>thing I want to ask you. We think of Macy's,

0:24:34.440 --> 0:24:37.920
<v Speaker 1>we think of the Macy's brand, but Macy's is Bloomingdale's.

0:24:37.920 --> 0:24:40.680
<v Speaker 1>They are Blue Mercury and they're Macy's. Where's the most

0:24:40.680 --> 0:24:44.000
<v Speaker 1>growth Blue Mercury. I mean, that's cosmetics and stuff that's

0:24:44.040 --> 0:24:47.240
<v Speaker 1>got usually really high margins. So I just wonder, where's

0:24:47.280 --> 0:24:50.400
<v Speaker 1>the growth, Where's you know, kind of the future potential

0:24:50.480 --> 0:24:53.480
<v Speaker 1>for them among those brands. Yeah, I think I think

0:24:53.480 --> 0:24:57.359
<v Speaker 1>the highest growth would be within Blue Mercury at Backstage UM,

0:24:57.359 --> 0:25:00.440
<v Speaker 1>which is their off price UM banner that done would

0:25:00.480 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 1>follow Bloomingdale's and then Macy's. Macy's as their largest and it's,

0:25:03.760 --> 0:25:06.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, the biggest brand that they have and also

0:25:06.480 --> 0:25:09.399
<v Speaker 1>the one that needs the most work. Yeah. Interesting, but

0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:12.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean it's I feel like that whole bloom Mercury

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:15.120
<v Speaker 1>sophore that is a space that just continues to explode.

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:18.359
<v Speaker 1>Just got about thirty seconds here. Yeah. Absolutely, As you

0:25:18.440 --> 0:25:20.960
<v Speaker 1>said before, you know, personal care beauty is where people

0:25:20.960 --> 0:25:23.560
<v Speaker 1>are focused, something that they'll always continue to replenish. Our

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:27.159
<v Speaker 1>buy the traffic driver aspect of a department store, and

0:25:27.200 --> 0:25:30.360
<v Speaker 1>I had the highest margins close to a no more.

0:25:31.000 --> 0:25:32.920
<v Speaker 1>Oh my god. Yeah, I gotta say, to be honest,

0:25:33.000 --> 0:25:35.040
<v Speaker 1>that's kind of what I have spent money on while

0:25:35.040 --> 0:25:38.320
<v Speaker 1>I've been working from home. Is stuff like that. Put hum.

0:25:38.440 --> 0:25:40.680
<v Speaker 1>Nice to hear your voice. Take care of put hum Goyle.

0:25:41.000 --> 0:25:45.560
<v Speaker 1>She's senior US Retail Alice at Bloomberg Intelligence, Rod Macro

0:25:47.520 --> 0:25:51.199
<v Speaker 1>a journal Now, but you let me drive? No, no, no no,

0:25:53.640 --> 0:26:05.080
<v Speaker 1>all right please, I want to drive. Strive the question.

0:26:12.600 --> 0:26:16.040
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the Globe community. Thanks. We'll

0:26:16.119 --> 0:26:20.560
<v Speaker 1>drying us down on Bloomberg Radio. It is time for

0:26:20.600 --> 0:26:23.320
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the close on this Thursday. I'm Carol

0:26:23.359 --> 0:26:26.920
<v Speaker 1>Master in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio and delighted to

0:26:26.960 --> 0:26:29.439
<v Speaker 1>have back with us. Vinny Catalano, chief market strategist at

0:26:29.440 --> 0:26:33.560
<v Speaker 1>Stuyvest Capital Management, also global investment strategist at the Faux

0:26:33.560 --> 0:26:36.000
<v Speaker 1>Red Mount. He joins us once again on the phone

0:26:36.080 --> 0:26:40.200
<v Speaker 1>in New Jersey. So, Vinny, how are you? I'm Wow,

0:26:40.240 --> 0:26:43.480
<v Speaker 1>how are you, Carol? I'm doing well. Um. Also just

0:26:43.600 --> 0:26:46.080
<v Speaker 1>kind of watching the virus numbers, getting a little nervous

0:26:46.119 --> 0:26:48.919
<v Speaker 1>about what it means for my beloved city of New

0:26:49.000 --> 0:26:51.919
<v Speaker 1>York City and the surrounding area. Um, how do you

0:26:51.960 --> 0:26:55.159
<v Speaker 1>see it? How does it impact ultimately what's going to

0:26:55.240 --> 0:26:57.679
<v Speaker 1>happen in our economy? Once again, what it means for

0:26:57.720 --> 0:27:01.280
<v Speaker 1>small businesses, what it smalls for Americans, what it means

0:27:01.320 --> 0:27:04.160
<v Speaker 1>for Americans, and what it means ultimately for our economy.

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:08.680
<v Speaker 1>Well that's not too much, Okay. Well it's all connected though, right, Vinny?

0:27:08.800 --> 0:27:11.639
<v Speaker 1>I mean it really, You know, you can't talk about

0:27:11.640 --> 0:27:13.720
<v Speaker 1>COVID without or you can't talk about the economy without

0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:16.479
<v Speaker 1>talking about COVID. You can't really talk about Wall Street

0:27:16.840 --> 0:27:19.439
<v Speaker 1>about without talking about the virus, although there is this

0:27:19.560 --> 0:27:23.960
<v Speaker 1>incredible disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street. Well, absolutely,

0:27:24.000 --> 0:27:27.240
<v Speaker 1>and small businesses you've mentioned a moment ago. Uh, small

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:32.040
<v Speaker 1>businesses clearly have a problem. You cannot run most small

0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:39.159
<v Speaker 1>businesses a capacity. You can't have restaurants half full, you

0:27:39.280 --> 0:27:42.399
<v Speaker 1>can't have bubbles outside of restaurants, and so on and

0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:48.040
<v Speaker 1>so forth. Bars they can't do it. Colleges cannot continue on. Uh,

0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:50.879
<v Speaker 1>in the manner that they have. So you know, the

0:27:51.000 --> 0:27:54.280
<v Speaker 1>vaccine could not come along quickly enough. But between now

0:27:54.320 --> 0:27:58.400
<v Speaker 1>and then, obviously we need some government support and government help.

0:27:58.440 --> 0:28:02.000
<v Speaker 1>And it would be nice if the left hand knew

0:28:02.000 --> 0:28:03.560
<v Speaker 1>what the right hand was doing and they kind of

0:28:03.600 --> 0:28:07.280
<v Speaker 1>cooperator down to Washington. We could we could definitely use that.

0:28:07.480 --> 0:28:10.960
<v Speaker 1>As far as the stock market is concerned, Um, that's

0:28:11.000 --> 0:28:14.600
<v Speaker 1>something where you know, it operates on a on a

0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:18.439
<v Speaker 1>completely different level. Um. One of the elements about the

0:28:18.480 --> 0:28:21.600
<v Speaker 1>stock market that I think many people don't fully appreciate

0:28:22.160 --> 0:28:25.240
<v Speaker 1>is the fact that the stock market has one characteristic

0:28:25.880 --> 0:28:27.680
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of other markets do not have, and

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:31.560
<v Speaker 1>that's liquidity. Get in, you can get out, and you

0:28:31.600 --> 0:28:35.240
<v Speaker 1>can do it very easily. And in an institutionally dominated market,

0:28:35.280 --> 0:28:38.880
<v Speaker 1>which the stock market is, there is that's you know,

0:28:40.040 --> 0:28:44.200
<v Speaker 1>macho approach to you know, a driver mentality coming down

0:28:44.280 --> 0:28:46.800
<v Speaker 1>the road and you know, playing a game of chicken,

0:28:46.880 --> 0:28:48.880
<v Speaker 1>and well, I can get out quicker than the other

0:28:48.920 --> 0:28:52.360
<v Speaker 1>guy can that kind of thing, and why not? Why not?

0:28:52.520 --> 0:28:55.480
<v Speaker 1>So that's kind of what's going on, uh in large

0:28:55.560 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 1>part um and to a large extent that that helps

0:28:58.840 --> 0:29:02.040
<v Speaker 1>explain a lot of the stock market behavior, which goes

0:29:02.080 --> 0:29:05.400
<v Speaker 1>beyond your more traditional way of looking at it. Okay,

0:29:05.480 --> 0:29:09.400
<v Speaker 1>So having said that kind of back at back at me,

0:29:11.120 --> 0:29:14.160
<v Speaker 1>So how do you put that or that thinking into

0:29:14.240 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of practical advice. Well, I think that, Yeah, I

0:29:18.800 --> 0:29:22.000
<v Speaker 1>think the thing that that would help investors to this

0:29:22.120 --> 0:29:26.280
<v Speaker 1>season to be reflective. We're entering in that and so

0:29:26.360 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 1>it's a good idea to take take a stock of

0:29:29.600 --> 0:29:32.160
<v Speaker 1>where you're at, take a look at the methodology that

0:29:32.240 --> 0:29:34.480
<v Speaker 1>you use, try to understand the nature of the beasts

0:29:34.520 --> 0:29:37.320
<v Speaker 1>that you're dealing with, Understand the nature of how the

0:29:37.360 --> 0:29:41.160
<v Speaker 1>market behaves, and and understand the fact that just like

0:29:41.320 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 1>a UH Professor Rick Mason's book, it's not complicated. This

0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:49.840
<v Speaker 1>is really about complexity. It's not about complicated systems. It's

0:29:49.840 --> 0:29:53.440
<v Speaker 1>about complexity, and complexity means that you don't have a

0:29:53.440 --> 0:29:59.920
<v Speaker 1>solvable situation. You have a multi level, multifaceted aspect which

0:30:00.040 --> 0:30:02.959
<v Speaker 1>is called the stock market. It's not just you know,

0:30:03.160 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Grandpa Buffett drinking his your plan is ukulele and drinking

0:30:07.480 --> 0:30:11.320
<v Speaker 1>and sipping his diet coke and investing long time. It's

0:30:11.360 --> 0:30:16.200
<v Speaker 1>also institutional investors doing completion strategies with e T s.

0:30:16.320 --> 0:30:19.640
<v Speaker 1>It's UH risk parity programs that are going on. It

0:30:19.760 --> 0:30:25.320
<v Speaker 1>is algis UH and algorithmic trading. It's a whole hodgepodge

0:30:25.320 --> 0:30:27.920
<v Speaker 1>of different things that are impact in the market. So

0:30:27.960 --> 0:30:30.720
<v Speaker 1>what do you do about that? Try to understand the basics,

0:30:31.240 --> 0:30:35.560
<v Speaker 1>understand the core element of what goes into valuation. And

0:30:35.640 --> 0:30:37.440
<v Speaker 1>I did a little something. I posted it up on

0:30:37.480 --> 0:30:40.120
<v Speaker 1>my LinkedIn page. It's a little diagram. I call it

0:30:40.160 --> 0:30:43.200
<v Speaker 1>the funnel. I think it could help people understand how

0:30:43.280 --> 0:30:47.000
<v Speaker 1>you at least need to understand the basics of investments

0:30:47.040 --> 0:30:49.360
<v Speaker 1>and then you can kind of go from there, but

0:30:49.440 --> 0:30:53.360
<v Speaker 1>at least understand that that some of the core principles concepts.

0:30:53.360 --> 0:30:56.760
<v Speaker 1>Think in terms of concepts as opposed to facts and opinions.

0:30:57.120 --> 0:30:59.400
<v Speaker 1>Well as the point is her video that you know

0:30:59.600 --> 0:31:02.200
<v Speaker 1>the mark it as many different things, right, um, And

0:31:02.320 --> 0:31:06.680
<v Speaker 1>so it's not just you know, one ideology or one

0:31:06.760 --> 0:31:09.840
<v Speaker 1>factor at play. UM. But I do wonder increasingly the

0:31:09.880 --> 0:31:14.160
<v Speaker 1>institutional money, how that often is really impacting the overall trade.

0:31:14.200 --> 0:31:16.400
<v Speaker 1>I feel like in many ways, the institutional trade because

0:31:16.440 --> 0:31:20.600
<v Speaker 1>of algorithms and formulas out there, mathematical formas it often provides,

0:31:21.240 --> 0:31:23.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, kind of a safety net when the market

0:31:23.400 --> 0:31:25.880
<v Speaker 1>goes really low because programs kick in and investors come

0:31:25.920 --> 0:31:28.680
<v Speaker 1>back into the market. Same thing. When it gets too heavy, right,

0:31:28.880 --> 0:31:32.400
<v Speaker 1>some things get hit, some numbers get tripped, and then investors,

0:31:32.920 --> 0:31:35.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, institutional investors get out of the market. But

0:31:35.120 --> 0:31:38.560
<v Speaker 1>it really kind of provides almost you know, this kind

0:31:38.600 --> 0:31:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of calm way of keeping the market in check, well

0:31:42.800 --> 0:31:45.560
<v Speaker 1>for better or worse, for better or work. That's one

0:31:45.600 --> 0:31:49.120
<v Speaker 1>aspect of it, definitely. But here's something that perhaps the

0:31:49.160 --> 0:31:52.800
<v Speaker 1>listeners can take a look into, try and identify, try

0:31:52.920 --> 0:31:58.000
<v Speaker 1>and find the risk the excuse me, the rate galio

0:31:58.240 --> 0:32:01.720
<v Speaker 1>um information piece of this up on the internet in

0:32:01.760 --> 0:32:05.280
<v Speaker 1>several places about risk parity now, and Race talked to

0:32:05.320 --> 0:32:06.680
<v Speaker 1>us a lot. In fact, he was part of our

0:32:06.720 --> 0:32:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg New Economy Forum this week, so there's a lot

0:32:09.520 --> 0:32:13.600
<v Speaker 1>of information from Ray on the Bloomberg terminal and at

0:32:13.600 --> 0:32:16.440
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com. That's right, and try and understand what

0:32:16.600 --> 0:32:19.680
<v Speaker 1>risk parity is all about. And when you look at

0:32:19.760 --> 0:32:22.720
<v Speaker 1>risk parity as one of the let's call it, one

0:32:22.720 --> 0:32:26.160
<v Speaker 1>of the animals and around there that that populate this

0:32:26.280 --> 0:32:29.680
<v Speaker 1>jungle called the stock market, you will be shocked to

0:32:29.800 --> 0:32:34.680
<v Speaker 1>see that that that the approach has little to nothing

0:32:34.800 --> 0:32:37.840
<v Speaker 1>to do just like kind of like a technical analysis

0:32:37.920 --> 0:32:40.239
<v Speaker 1>in a way has little to nothing to do with

0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:43.360
<v Speaker 1>the fundamentals of the companies. And yet at the same

0:32:43.400 --> 0:32:45.880
<v Speaker 1>time you've got that going on, while you have Lauren

0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:49.160
<v Speaker 1>Buffett stuff going on and and his approach, while you

0:32:49.200 --> 0:32:53.720
<v Speaker 1>have a whole range of these other types of beings

0:32:53.760 --> 0:32:55.520
<v Speaker 1>that are in the space that are doing all of

0:32:55.520 --> 0:33:01.440
<v Speaker 1>this stock market stuff. It's complexity, it's not complicated. Is

0:33:01.520 --> 0:33:04.840
<v Speaker 1>complexity and complexity is different than complicated. Are you saying

0:33:04.880 --> 0:33:08.600
<v Speaker 1>retail investors, you don't stand a chance? Just quickly? You

0:33:08.760 --> 0:33:11.680
<v Speaker 1>do if you if you focus in on your risk

0:33:11.720 --> 0:33:15.360
<v Speaker 1>tolerances and your goals and your objectives and then trying

0:33:15.400 --> 0:33:19.560
<v Speaker 1>to learn, try to understand what's going on, up your game, Yeah,

0:33:19.640 --> 0:33:23.240
<v Speaker 1>that type of thing, and be reflective, look at you

0:33:23.320 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 1>know you really try to be informed, not feel informed. Yeah, no, no, no,

0:33:28.240 --> 0:33:30.640
<v Speaker 1>that's a big distinction and certainly an important one when

0:33:30.640 --> 0:33:32.600
<v Speaker 1>you're investing in the markets. All Right, gotta run, Vinny,

0:33:32.680 --> 0:33:35.240
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. People have a good Thanksgiving. Vinny Catalano,

0:33:35.640 --> 0:33:39.320
<v Speaker 1>chief market strategist at Stuyvesant Capital Management, Global investment strategist

0:33:39.320 --> 0:33:41.960
<v Speaker 1>at the Faux Red Mount joining us on the phone

0:33:42.120 --> 0:33:44.760
<v Speaker 1>from New Jersey. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg

0:33:44.760 --> 0:33:48.160
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or at

0:33:48.160 --> 0:33:50.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and be sure to check out our

0:33:50.360 --> 0:33:53.240
<v Speaker 1>daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio.

0:33:53.480 --> 0:33:55.600
<v Speaker 1>And be sure to watch us too on YouTube by

0:33:55.600 --> 0:33:57.320
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