1
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane Jay Lee.

2
00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

3
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

4
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Let's

5
00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 1: bring in March on the show, we've plind a gun

6
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,360
Speaker 1: global for ex change markets strateg just a managing conta

7
00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,159
Speaker 1: good morning to your mark, your fools, your thoughts on

8
00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,320
Speaker 1: what we've seen over night from Chinese authorities. Just frame

9
00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:43,000
Speaker 1: it thora for our audience place so I would phrase it.

10
00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,040
Speaker 1: I had to see a sort of a combination about

11
00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:46,879
Speaker 1: what you and Lisa are saying. I so see, the

12
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:49,480
Speaker 1: dollar had actually weakened in the last part of last

13
00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,720
Speaker 1: week after the tariffs were announced. So it was after

14
00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,560
Speaker 1: the after the little rally the dollar had on the

15
00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,800
Speaker 1: back of the f MC, we get the dollars sell

16
00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,600
Speaker 1: off last Thursday and Friday, and so I was one

17
00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 1: of the people that thought that the pullback of the

18
00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:05,640
Speaker 1: dollar would have protected that seven point o level on

19
00:01:05,760 --> 00:01:08,679
Speaker 1: dollar R and B come early this week. But instead

20
00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,360
Speaker 1: I think that the Chinese, I think that they stay

21
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,560
Speaker 1: stepped away. They did two things really at things. First day,

22
00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,360
Speaker 1: the fixing for the dollar was six point nine, which

23
00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,240
Speaker 1: was a bit stronger for the dollar than many people

24
00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 1: have expected given the recent pattern. And then we saw

25
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,520
Speaker 1: the forward and then finally the c n H went

26
00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,240
Speaker 1: above seven point oh and no sign from the PBOC

27
00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:34,319
Speaker 1: protesting that. And then spots c n H D on shore,

28
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 1: R and B went above seven point oh. And I think,

29
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:39,120
Speaker 1: to Lisa's point, once we have this, Pandora's box is

30
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,080
Speaker 1: open because we don't know what what's the next Where

31
00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:43,160
Speaker 1: is it going to go? Now people are talking seven

32
00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,839
Speaker 1: thirties the next The next fix from the Chinese going

33
00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 1: into tomorrow, I think is critical. So can you anticipate

34
00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:53,440
Speaker 1: what Chinese authorities will do after a day of pretty

35
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,120
Speaker 1: big waiting us for the Chinese currency. It's hard to

36
00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:57,920
Speaker 1: predict what the Chinese. I can't even pretend that I

37
00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:00,120
Speaker 1: can predict what the Chinese's gonna do. But they did

38
00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,880
Speaker 1: have a statement that I thought was very important, and

39
00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:04,560
Speaker 1: he said something to the effect I might not get

40
00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:06,720
Speaker 1: it exactly right, but something in the effect that the

41
00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,640
Speaker 1: seven point oh is not like an age that once passed,

42
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,560
Speaker 1: you can't return too. So I think that they in

43
00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,720
Speaker 1: effected was more of a warning shot that if the

44
00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,799
Speaker 1: US wants to go down this route ending the tear

45
00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:22,520
Speaker 1: off truths without even notifying the Chinese having to read

46
00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,919
Speaker 1: that in a tweet, if the US insists on going

47
00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,240
Speaker 1: down this route, China is prepared to just step away.

48
00:02:28,600 --> 00:02:30,720
Speaker 1: They're prepared to take whatever the US wants to hit with,

49
00:02:30,880 --> 00:02:34,520
Speaker 1: hit it with. If that means tariffs, that's what it means,

50
00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:38,480
Speaker 1: because at some point, once you put make Chinese goods uncompetitive,

51
00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:41,040
Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter where the tariff's at. It's uncompetitive.

52
00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,799
Speaker 1: We have to find other substitutes for that. So I'm

53
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,600
Speaker 1: concerned that that this is that the US are going

54
00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,320
Speaker 1: to retaliate and the situation is going to escalate. I

55
00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:51,200
Speaker 1: can't see how things can get better before they get

56
00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:52,919
Speaker 1: before they're gonna get worse, I think, and that that

57
00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,240
Speaker 1: seems to be was being priced into the market. If

58
00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,959
Speaker 1: copper dr copper down to the lowest and US on

59
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:03,240
Speaker 1: your yields the longest losing streak since two thousand and twelve,

60
00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 1: I'm just wondering whether this UH tolerance of the devaluation

61
00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,680
Speaker 1: of the UN will hurt or help China, because at

62
00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,880
Speaker 1: this point we don't even know about capital outflows. We

63
00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:17,080
Speaker 1: don't know about their purchasing power, their ability to stimulate

64
00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:19,480
Speaker 1: their economy. What's your take? So I think that you know,

65
00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,079
Speaker 1: for a while, many of us thought that the seventh

66
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:26,239
Speaker 1: the reason that the Chinese were preventing further depreciation, despite

67
00:03:26,280 --> 00:03:29,560
Speaker 1: what's happening to the economy, despite the interest rate differentials.

68
00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:31,760
Speaker 1: They were holding up the R and B because I

69
00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,080
Speaker 1: think many of us assumed that they were thinking that

70
00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,800
Speaker 1: they wanted to help Chinese companies move up to value

71
00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:39,560
Speaker 1: added chain. Find if trade is going to be less conducive,

72
00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:42,280
Speaker 1: then they have to do more value added to make

73
00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:45,920
Speaker 1: their exports more competitive. And I think that the Chinese

74
00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:50,119
Speaker 1: are reluctant to risk this downward spiral that we saw,

75
00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:53,440
Speaker 1: like in lower R and B lower stocks. And this

76
00:03:53,480 --> 00:03:56,280
Speaker 1: is a very important time period. You know, we're about

77
00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,840
Speaker 1: to celebrate a China is about to celebrate the seventieth

78
00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 1: anniversary of the Revolute shan In. Americans take these kind

79
00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:03,800
Speaker 1: of things with a big greeness soft but I think

80
00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:05,680
Speaker 1: there are in other parts of the world, like in China,

81
00:04:05,960 --> 00:04:10,880
Speaker 1: these kind of national holidays, national commemorations are very important,

82
00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:13,000
Speaker 1: and I think that They're gonna want to avoid this

83
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,960
Speaker 1: downward spoil these kind of headlines to undermine what would

84
00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:18,440
Speaker 1: seem to be otherwise relatively good news. But Mark, that's

85
00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,680
Speaker 1: something I actually do worry about this morning. On a

86
00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:22,840
Speaker 1: morning like this morning, I'm not worried about the Chinese

87
00:04:23,000 --> 00:04:26,120
Speaker 1: engineering currency weakness. I think that comes with massive risks

88
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:27,800
Speaker 1: for the Chinese, and I'm not sure they want to

89
00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:29,480
Speaker 1: play with fire. But that's not to say they can't

90
00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,600
Speaker 1: make a mistake. There is this immense belief, this immense

91
00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:36,000
Speaker 1: faith in the Chinese policymaker's ability to keep control. And

92
00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,359
Speaker 1: it always strikes me as odd because back in fifteen

93
00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 1: sixteen they lost control and it took months and months

94
00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,560
Speaker 1: and months to find stability in the Chinese economy and

95
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:49,640
Speaker 1: Chinese markets. Once again, can this lead to a policy

96
00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,600
Speaker 1: mistake if you move away from constraining the currency to

97
00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:57,359
Speaker 1: tolerating weakness, can it precipitate the kind of things that

98
00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,000
Speaker 1: the Chinese are trying to avoid. I think that's the problem,

99
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:03,040
Speaker 1: these unintended consequences. I mean, that's why I point out

100
00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,520
Speaker 1: that today, despite the despite all the focus on China,

101
00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,800
Speaker 1: it's actually Korea wand it actually sold off more, and

102
00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:15,080
Speaker 1: so the the the unintended consequences UH, the chances for

103
00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,320
Speaker 1: a policy mistake, not just in China but in the

104
00:05:17,400 --> 00:05:19,359
Speaker 1: United States, and the way other countries respond to this.

105
00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 1: I think it's very important. We saw this with the UH.

106
00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,880
Speaker 1: The European released this morning the composite p m I,

107
00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:28,440
Speaker 1: and we see that you're and the large exporters in

108
00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,919
Speaker 1: Europe have also been squeezed by this trade tensions. This

109
00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:32,680
Speaker 1: is like bad news for the world, I think. So

110
00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:35,080
Speaker 1: before we let you go, it's gonna be a busy session,

111
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:37,040
Speaker 1: perhaps a very very busy Wait. What are you looking

112
00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,560
Speaker 1: for as the separation progresses this morning in New York? Well,

113
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:42,440
Speaker 1: I think for me, the most important thing is going

114
00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:44,960
Speaker 1: to be how the US responds to what China is doing.

115
00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,160
Speaker 1: Is I just don't see how Trump can back off, now,

116
00:05:48,400 --> 00:05:50,760
Speaker 1: how the U s can back off, And so, whether

117
00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,800
Speaker 1: it's the press conference later today or some comment from

118
00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,640
Speaker 1: another official, I think people are gonna be very eager

119
00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:58,560
Speaker 1: to see the sort of we're waiting for the other

120
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 1: shooter drop and left to the US great to catch

121
00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:02,840
Speaker 1: up with you. What a busy weight we've got ahead

122
00:06:02,839 --> 00:06:05,560
Speaker 1: of us now. Bannockburn Global for X Chief Markets Strategists

123
00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:23,240
Speaker 1: managing partner. I'm really glad to bring in henrietto Trees

124
00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:28,040
Speaker 1: to discuss this because honestly, she has decades of experience

125
00:06:28,120 --> 00:06:31,400
Speaker 1: framing all sorts of policy issues and and to me,

126
00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,279
Speaker 1: this is the main question. So, Henrietta, thank you so

127
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:38,080
Speaker 1: much for coming in here and joining US VETA partners.

128
00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,200
Speaker 1: What do you think an escalation looks like? Thanks for

129
00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,200
Speaker 1: having me this morning. UM, I think you're definitely looking

130
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,440
Speaker 1: at a political dynamic here more than an economics one.

131
00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,640
Speaker 1: Now that the US has exhausted essentially it's entire basket

132
00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,560
Speaker 1: of five billion someone worth of tariff, and China has

133
00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:55,640
Speaker 1: essentially done the same, Now they're going to be escalating

134
00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:58,680
Speaker 1: in much more obvious political ways. UM. One of the

135
00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,720
Speaker 1: anecdotes we heard from the administer asition early on in

136
00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:03,919
Speaker 1: this trade wars that they laughed when other nations including

137
00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:08,760
Speaker 1: the EU, UM and China and Mexico and Canada they laughed,

138
00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:12,320
Speaker 1: and they when they put on tariffs on our agriculture exports.

139
00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,400
Speaker 1: Because the President believes that the farmers are firmly united

140
00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,600
Speaker 1: behind him, and UM, we're tracking polling data there very closely.

141
00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:22,040
Speaker 1: But still it's about an eight percent approval rating for

142
00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,000
Speaker 1: the Republicans and pretty high through most of the Midwest

143
00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:28,400
Speaker 1: and the farms sort of heartland area in support for

144
00:07:28,440 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 1: this trade war. So I think as we escalate, it's

145
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:32,640
Speaker 1: going to get more into the realm of the politics,

146
00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,240
Speaker 1: and we should expect the farmers to continue to get hit. UM. Interestingly,

147
00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,640
Speaker 1: speaking with Agriculture Committee staff, they were saying, you know,

148
00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:41,120
Speaker 1: I don't care about the fourth list of tariffs going

149
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,400
Speaker 1: into effect. This is the US is three billion dollar basket,

150
00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:46,960
Speaker 1: because there's nothing else that China can do to us.

151
00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:49,800
Speaker 1: They've already carraffed US tariff d US to Kingdom come

152
00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,280
Speaker 1: and so now China is essentially going a step further

153
00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:55,120
Speaker 1: still hammering that state that same old saw which is

154
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,840
Speaker 1: hit the farmers all day every day, and I expect

155
00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,600
Speaker 1: that's what they'll continue to do. Moving into main facturing

156
00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:02,280
Speaker 1: that might be in the rest belt will probably be

157
00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 1: a good next step to watching um, you know, GM

158
00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:08,040
Speaker 1: and Ford and seeing how they're being treated over in China.

159
00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,920
Speaker 1: UM Seeing how any of the activities that China can

160
00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,560
Speaker 1: take to impact those guys would be the next step. So, Henrietta,

161
00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:18,000
Speaker 1: this is this raises a really important point if the

162
00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:22,840
Speaker 1: escalation is more political than economic, our traders pricing in

163
00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,800
Speaker 1: too much pessimism right now because there isn't that much more,

164
00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:30,480
Speaker 1: uh that China retaliation can do to the U. S economy. See.

165
00:08:30,520 --> 00:08:32,480
Speaker 1: I think that that's a bit discounted because I don't

166
00:08:32,480 --> 00:08:35,320
Speaker 1: think the market has fully appreciated the severity of the tariff.

167
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:38,240
Speaker 1: Thus far, we have strong underlying economic data. And while

168
00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:41,040
Speaker 1: earnings calls have started to come around and CEOs and

169
00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:44,760
Speaker 1: CFOs are starting to talk about the trade war more sustinctly, Um,

170
00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:48,000
Speaker 1: you're still seeing holdovers from the massive pull forward and

171
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:50,720
Speaker 1: inventories that businesses pulled off in the first and second

172
00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:52,959
Speaker 1: quarter of this year, not to mention fourth quarter or

173
00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:55,560
Speaker 1: last year. So I think there's still this lag that

174
00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,320
Speaker 1: will continue to escalate, and traders need to price into

175
00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,400
Speaker 1: the market going into suptime or and even October. There's

176
00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:03,600
Speaker 1: still these reports that, you know, maybe the White House

177
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:05,880
Speaker 1: is not serious about putting these tariffs on in September.

178
00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,439
Speaker 1: That gives folks false hope. I mean, the market being

179
00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:13,200
Speaker 1: down three twenty points is um, you know, getting there,

180
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,680
Speaker 1: in my opinion, starting to appreciate the severity of the situation.

181
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:18,959
Speaker 1: But there's er room in my opinion, And Riett said,

182
00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:20,959
Speaker 1: just finally, I'd like you to talk about where the

183
00:09:21,000 --> 00:09:24,480
Speaker 1: focuses on either side in the negotiations right now. The

184
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:27,000
Speaker 1: Chinese may well be focused on the pictures coming out

185
00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:30,200
Speaker 1: of Hong Kong. The president may well be focused on

186
00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,880
Speaker 1: the tragic news over the weekend of two mass shootings

187
00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:36,720
Speaker 1: in twenty four hours. Is the focus elsewhere and away

188
00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,920
Speaker 1: from the trade talks as we begin a new training week, Well,

189
00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:42,840
Speaker 1: I think we have to be mindful that U S

190
00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,360
Speaker 1: t R is working on every single front. I mean,

191
00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,120
Speaker 1: they're firing on all cylinders. We've got three separate cases

192
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,840
Speaker 1: with just the EU, they're trying to negotiate with Japan UM.

193
00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,840
Speaker 1: When I speak with UM senior officials and with folks

194
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,239
Speaker 1: in the Senate of public caucus circles, with the administration,

195
00:09:57,600 --> 00:10:00,840
Speaker 1: they believe firmly that it is on the brink of

196
00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:04,760
Speaker 1: economic collapse. And so while the trade wars take a while,

197
00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,439
Speaker 1: I think usc R Lifefiser is extraordinarily patient and he

198
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,439
Speaker 1: understands that these tires are the best tool that they

199
00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,000
Speaker 1: have and it will not be immediate. And so I

200
00:10:14,040 --> 00:10:18,359
Speaker 1: think that they believe that China issue is important, obviously,

201
00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,480
Speaker 1: but there's plenty else perculating as you point out the

202
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 1: domestic unrest. I think immigration and trade go hand in hand.

203
00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:29,160
Speaker 1: So as we escalate with um the trade war on China,

204
00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,480
Speaker 1: expect immigration rhetoric to be exacerbated. And the El Passo shootings,

205
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,000
Speaker 1: UH and the Ohio shootings obviously give us a clear

206
00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,679
Speaker 1: example of that. So I think that it serves the

207
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,959
Speaker 1: President's best interest to keep both immigration and the trade

208
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,880
Speaker 1: wars front and center. They worked in Kandom and it's

209
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,640
Speaker 1: a great to cant show with you, Henrietta Trade their

210
00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:49,320
Speaker 1: of Vada partners, joining us on the latest moves from

211
00:10:49,440 --> 00:11:06,559
Speaker 1: China at the epicenter of the price action today the

212
00:11:06,640 --> 00:11:10,959
Speaker 1: Chinese currency, that yuan dollar China through seven wang in

213
00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:12,679
Speaker 1: on all of this, I pleased to say, Joining us

214
00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,560
Speaker 1: on the phone, Alan Ruskin, Deutsche Bank Securities Managing Director

215
00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,120
Speaker 1: and chief International Strategist. Alan just walked me through quite

216
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,440
Speaker 1: simply how you're framing what happened in the last twenty

217
00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:26,720
Speaker 1: four hours for clients this morning. UM, Yes, sir John,

218
00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:30,040
Speaker 1: It's has been an interesting twenty four hours and not

219
00:11:30,120 --> 00:11:34,040
Speaker 1: a complete surprise. After you know, the last announcement from

220
00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:38,120
Speaker 1: President Trump that tariffs would be raised on the you know,

221
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:42,960
Speaker 1: remaining three hundred billion imports that the US has from China.

222
00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:47,880
Speaker 1: Um that being said, uh, it's you know, China's actions

223
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:52,679
Speaker 1: didn't have to occur immediately. They didn't have to actually

224
00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:56,079
Speaker 1: let the currency go immediately. So I think there's this

225
00:11:56,240 --> 00:11:59,719
Speaker 1: perception out there in the marketplace that they've effectively weaponized

226
00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:02,920
Speaker 1: the currency and that you know, what you have is

227
00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,240
Speaker 1: a trade war which is now turning into you know,

228
00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:08,319
Speaker 1: a genuine currency war. Obviously, we've just had some cleaner

229
00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:11,080
Speaker 1: comments from the PBOC just trying to dampen that down

230
00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,120
Speaker 1: and saying they won't use the currency as a tool.

231
00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:14,840
Speaker 1: But I think the proof of the pudding is in

232
00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:18,280
Speaker 1: the eating, unfortunately, and you know, it looks very much

233
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:21,000
Speaker 1: to a lot of observers and probably to the U.

234
00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,840
Speaker 1: S administration as well, that they have actually used the

235
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,080
Speaker 1: currency as at all. So Alan, let's talk about whether

236
00:12:26,120 --> 00:12:28,560
Speaker 1: you think that is the case. I'm never a big

237
00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,320
Speaker 1: fan of the word weaponization. I think it's very loaded.

238
00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,960
Speaker 1: Looking at the story this morning, they've certainly moved away

239
00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:38,920
Speaker 1: from constraining the currency weakness. If they're now tolerating currency weakness,

240
00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:44,360
Speaker 1: will that be perceived. Is that initially the objective of

241
00:12:44,400 --> 00:12:47,640
Speaker 1: the Chinese authorities for that to be perceived as some

242
00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,439
Speaker 1: kind of weaponization of the currency. Well, it certainly looked

243
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,920
Speaker 1: like that up until you know, the latest comments that

244
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,880
Speaker 1: we've had from the PBO cum insomuch as you know,

245
00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,480
Speaker 1: I do feel like they could have held the line

246
00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,200
Speaker 1: in terms of you know, the seven level for a

247
00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,360
Speaker 1: few weeks perhaps and separated the actions on the currency

248
00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:12,480
Speaker 1: side from uh, you know, the actions that we're seeing

249
00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:17,280
Speaker 1: on the tariffs. Um. That being said, the underlying pressures

250
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:21,160
Speaker 1: are clearly four dollar China to go substantially higher. So

251
00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:22,960
Speaker 1: I think if they were going to hold the line,

252
00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,480
Speaker 1: it was only going to be probably for a few weeks,

253
00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 1: and after that, I think they will start to run

254
00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:32,200
Speaker 1: rundown reserves at a pace that was undesirable from the

255
00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 1: Chinese standpoint. And I think, you know, it was inevitable

256
00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:37,520
Speaker 1: that seven was going to go at least over the

257
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,880
Speaker 1: next few months. So Alan, I guess let's just assume,

258
00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:43,080
Speaker 1: as the market seems to be doing right now, that

259
00:13:43,200 --> 00:13:46,480
Speaker 1: this is an intentional escalation and that we don't have

260
00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,760
Speaker 1: a path back from here. That's an easy resolution. What

261
00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:53,360
Speaker 1: does this look like what is the playbook for both

262
00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:58,160
Speaker 1: China going forward as well as the US. Yeah, so

263
00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:01,680
Speaker 1: you know, they're still open questions as to how China

264
00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 1: responds to the US and other matters. I think there's

265
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,920
Speaker 1: you know, question marks about you know, have they genuinely

266
00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:13,400
Speaker 1: stopped agricultural imports from in the national entities? Uh? You know,

267
00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,360
Speaker 1: those news reports are not entirely clear as well. So

268
00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:18,720
Speaker 1: we need to see, you know, what other actions China

269
00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,240
Speaker 1: comes up with, because I think that will then provoke

270
00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,400
Speaker 1: a response from the U S side. On the U

271
00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:27,680
Speaker 1: S side, you know, I think they will almost certainly

272
00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,400
Speaker 1: point to the latest adjustment we've seen on dollar China

273
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,800
Speaker 1: as as currency manipulation UM as I said, and I

274
00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,720
Speaker 1: think market forces are pushing in that direction regardless how

275
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:41,600
Speaker 1: the US responds thereafter is not obvious. They could, for example,

276
00:14:41,640 --> 00:14:45,360
Speaker 1: intervene UM so they could buy uh, you know, the

277
00:14:45,440 --> 00:14:48,480
Speaker 1: Chinese currency and sell dollars. But I think if that's

278
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,320
Speaker 1: unilateral action and it's done against the you know, the

279
00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,640
Speaker 1: desires of the Chinese, and it's not going to be

280
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,840
Speaker 1: terribly effective. A worst case scenario would be the US

281
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,960
Speaker 1: perhaps even sort of threatening to raise tariffs more the

282
00:15:02,040 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 1: more the Chinese allow their currency to weaken, So that

283
00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:07,960
Speaker 1: really gets into pretty ugly scenario. And we've had several

284
00:15:07,960 --> 00:15:11,040
Speaker 1: reports over the weekend suggesting that the advisors around the

285
00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,200
Speaker 1: president did not want him to tweet what he tweeted

286
00:15:13,200 --> 00:15:14,760
Speaker 1: at the back end of last week, and he still

287
00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:16,760
Speaker 1: did it. We know from a couple of weeks ago,

288
00:15:16,960 --> 00:15:18,880
Speaker 1: a couple of tuesdays ago, there was a meeting within

289
00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,960
Speaker 1: the White House about intervening directly in the currency market.

290
00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:25,120
Speaker 1: Reportedly there was a proposal from pin and Navarro about

291
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,640
Speaker 1: weakening the dollar by say ten percent. The President pushed back,

292
00:15:28,960 --> 00:15:32,200
Speaker 1: do you actually think direct intervention may well be on

293
00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:36,840
Speaker 1: the table still for this White House? Um, Look, it's

294
00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,360
Speaker 1: it's impossible to rule out, say some sort of in

295
00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,800
Speaker 1: a brief foray into into the foreign exchange market. I

296
00:15:43,800 --> 00:15:46,800
Speaker 1: think what would uh, well, I think authorities would quickly

297
00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:51,400
Speaker 1: find is that this is a difficult market to push around.

298
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:53,800
Speaker 1: And you know, even for example, if they wanted the

299
00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 1: dollar week or with the dollar in nestree weekend, or

300
00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:59,640
Speaker 1: how many billions of dollars of sales will be needed

301
00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,880
Speaker 1: actually you know, achieve end goals. I think there's all

302
00:16:02,920 --> 00:16:06,400
Speaker 1: sort of question marks that I think mostly answered on

303
00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:09,840
Speaker 1: the on the on the side of suggesting that intervention

304
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,360
Speaker 1: is not going to be effective. So I think, you know,

305
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 1: that's why the President's advises us suggesting, well, you know,

306
00:16:16,560 --> 00:16:19,120
Speaker 1: that's not a good idea. There are other arguments, of course,

307
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:21,040
Speaker 1: not least you know, if you try to drive your

308
00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:24,320
Speaker 1: currency week, it's disruptive for ACID markets in general, it

309
00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 1: will be disruptive for the US bond market, for the

310
00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 1: US equity marketers, et cetera. So I think, you know,

311
00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,920
Speaker 1: there are a lot of good reasons why you don't

312
00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:35,400
Speaker 1: really want to drive your currency weaker. So currently there's

313
00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,840
Speaker 1: a lot of fear certainly baked into markets are being

314
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:41,400
Speaker 1: baked into markets. There's a question of how much that

315
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,560
Speaker 1: accurately reflects what the economic readout will be from this.

316
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,080
Speaker 1: And I'm wondering, do you think that there's a real

317
00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 1: possibility that escalating trade war will cause some sort of

318
00:16:52,560 --> 00:16:56,040
Speaker 1: either recession global downturn that is not being fully presced

319
00:16:56,080 --> 00:17:00,360
Speaker 1: into the market right now. Yeah, I think there's a

320
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 1: level of disruption that could come from this that is

321
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,399
Speaker 1: not being fully priced into the market. I mean, I

322
00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 1: think even if you look at in a past episodes

323
00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:13,199
Speaker 1: where tariffs were an issue. Where this trade issue reared

324
00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:17,959
Speaker 1: its head, you saw the equity market, the US equity

325
00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:22,760
Speaker 1: market in particular, for quite sharply. The adjustments we've seen

326
00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:25,800
Speaker 1: relative to those past episodes is still quite small. So

327
00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:28,760
Speaker 1: it's certainly possible that you could see a much larger

328
00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:33,919
Speaker 1: movements in in a risky assets in general, and that

329
00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:37,640
Speaker 1: will unwind some of the easy financial conditions that we've seen,

330
00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,840
Speaker 1: partly helped by the FED. You know. As to whether

331
00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:42,520
Speaker 1: it sort of pushes the US, for example, into recession,

332
00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 1: I think that's you know, we're not we're not nearly

333
00:17:45,320 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 1: at that stage yet, but we're at a stage where

334
00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,639
Speaker 1: certainly this is consistent with the ongoing global slowdown and

335
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:53,800
Speaker 1: the U S slowdown. And then let's try and wrap

336
00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:55,640
Speaker 1: things up with a bit of a guide book playbook

337
00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:57,359
Speaker 1: for the next twenty four hours down where maybe a

338
00:17:57,359 --> 00:17:59,879
Speaker 1: little bit of a mini clinic over how the Chinese

339
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,959
Speaker 1: arency has managed. I've always thought the fix is an

340
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: unfortunate phrase because it implies it is something that perhaps

341
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 1: it is not. But alan just walk us through for

342
00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,159
Speaker 1: our listeners that might not be too familiar with what

343
00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,640
Speaker 1: happens with the Chinese currency and foreign exchange markets every

344
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 1: single day, just how they do manage this currency, what

345
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:21,920
Speaker 1: the fix actually is, and what you're looking for later tonight. Yeah, John,

346
00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:24,480
Speaker 1: I wouldn't make too much of the fix really because

347
00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,000
Speaker 1: I think what you're seeing is that outside of the fix,

348
00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:33,399
Speaker 1: you're seeing much larger adjustments by the free market, some

349
00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:36,440
Speaker 1: of us led by the CNH market. So for listeners,

350
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,600
Speaker 1: that's really you know market that's effectively Chinese currency offshore,

351
00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:45,679
Speaker 1: the UH so Hong Kong based Chinese currency um. But

352
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,240
Speaker 1: and we're seeing a bit of a gap developed between

353
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:50,359
Speaker 1: c and Y and c n H. But on the whole,

354
00:18:51,119 --> 00:18:57,399
Speaker 1: this is a indication that we're seeing from much larger

355
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,159
Speaker 1: adjustments occurring across the board between c n Y and

356
00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,000
Speaker 1: c NH. So you know, what we're seeing is something

357
00:19:04,040 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 1: which is being tolerated by authorities independent of where they

358
00:19:08,080 --> 00:19:12,240
Speaker 1: may be fixing the currency at any one moment in time. Alan,

359
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,240
Speaker 1: do you think the risk pressure though, because of optics

360
00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:15,960
Speaker 1: and the way it will be perceived to do something

361
00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 1: difference with the fix later this evening going into tomorrow, possibly,

362
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,960
Speaker 1: I think where the fix could be interesting is in

363
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 1: UH supporting the statements that we've seen from the pbo

364
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:35,080
Speaker 1: C now that they won't use the currency as a tool.

365
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:38,879
Speaker 1: If they try to attempt to example, fix the currency

366
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:42,280
Speaker 1: below seven again, that would be you know, interesting, It

367
00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,760
Speaker 1: would be contradictory perhaps too, you know, everything we've just

368
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,560
Speaker 1: seen over the last twelve hours or so, but it

369
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 1: would at least be indicative of, you know, some genuine

370
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 1: desire to limit the fallout of the currency and the

371
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 1: weakness in the currency, and to catch up with you

372
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: as always, to break down some of these foreign exchange moves.

373
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,640
Speaker 1: And I'm Ruskin, their Dutch Bank Securities managing to director

374
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:22,240
Speaker 1: and chief International Strategists. Let's bring in Lallie Top Charlie

375
00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: Shower j HCM, senior fund manager the Bloomberg Barclays agg

376
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 1: that index on high yield getting out to four hundred

377
00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:33,240
Speaker 1: basis points. Again, Larly, you have been defensive. You've been

378
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 1: talking about the risk in this credit market. Are we

379
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 1: seeing a reflection of that or just a reflection of

380
00:20:38,920 --> 00:20:41,960
Speaker 1: treasury yields dropping drastically lower and high yield not coming

381
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 1: along for the party. I think it's the ladder. Um.

382
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 1: I think there's a little bit of a risk off

383
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: in high yield for sure. Um. Look four hundred is

384
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:54,280
Speaker 1: still tight. It's still hundred something basis points tight here

385
00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 1: to date. UM, And I don't think the spreads are

386
00:20:57,280 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 1: going to be cheap until we get to five hundred.

387
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,240
Speaker 1: So we will stay we we'll continue to say defensive.

388
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,200
Speaker 1: So my question is, what's the catalyst to see further

389
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 1: weakness here, further widening and credit spreads that would offset

390
00:21:09,640 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 1: those lower rates. Because obviously the yield is two components,

391
00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: write the right component and the credit spread the risks component.

392
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,120
Speaker 1: So what's the what's what's sort of the trigger here?

393
00:21:19,400 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 1: I mean it's you know, at some point the credit

394
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 1: will return to fundamentals. So if you think of the

395
00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,480
Speaker 1: high yield, which will have a different dynamics than the

396
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 1: investment grade, which are the larger corporations. But if you

397
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 1: think of high yield, look again, this is one earning

398
00:21:31,040 --> 00:21:33,480
Speaker 1: season and we're still going through it. The numbers are

399
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:36,879
Speaker 1: not that great, um, the leveraging has stopped. There are

400
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:40,960
Speaker 1: more companies missing numbers, UM And eventually I think, you know,

401
00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,919
Speaker 1: in high yield you do start pricing in actual credit

402
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 1: risks well. But things are not that bad though, And

403
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 1: this is what a lot of people point to that

404
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 1: that companies are still doing okay, and that you know,

405
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,480
Speaker 1: perhaps are not deleveraging, but they're certainly not re leveraging,

406
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 1: and some sort of dramatic in some sort of dramatic

407
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 1: way in the high yield market perhaps and has been

408
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 1: create more so, so what do you say to people

409
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,800
Speaker 1: who push back and say, you know what, investors have

410
00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,760
Speaker 1: shown restraint. You have not seen runaway rallies in the

411
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: risky is debt. Things are still solid. Well, it's really simple, actually,

412
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: So I think of how you'll spreads in two components.

413
00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 1: One is your credit risk um compensation as a function

414
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 1: of the default and the recovery rate. The other one

415
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,720
Speaker 1: is the liquidity risk premium. So that liquidity risk premium,

416
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 1: which is basically your average transaction costs over the cycle,

417
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,879
Speaker 1: is actually somewhere around three d basis points over the

418
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: last twenty five years. When the markets gets really tight,

419
00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,919
Speaker 1: people price it as tight as two hundred basis points.

420
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 1: So can the spreads go another hundred basis points? Sure,

421
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 1: if you always assume you can transact, then your bid

422
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: ask spread is going to remain very muted. But I

423
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 1: think eventually vault is gonna pick up and we're gonna

424
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,960
Speaker 1: go back to three D and spread liquidity premium. John,

425
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,360
Speaker 1: I love when we bring this up because it really

426
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 1: highlights this sort of escalating fear that people have that

427
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: when they go to sell, they won't be able to

428
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,320
Speaker 1: at the prices they have on their books. Well, the

429
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,119
Speaker 1: problem is not many people to fit for long it.

430
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,400
Speaker 1: And I guess that is the issue because so many

431
00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 1: people think they connect it. When they want to exit,

432
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: they'll always get ahead of the herd, right, And that's

433
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 1: that's never how it works. We have a younger generation

434
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 1: now that has never gone through a bad period. Talked

435
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: to me about that, because I think it's really important.

436
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: I remember sitting down with ubs Is Andrera Chill. Of

437
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: course Andre since left the bank, but it was running

438
00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 1: the investment bank, and it was back in I think

439
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:24,840
Speaker 1: it was fourteen fifteen and we were going into the

440
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: first rate hike at the Federal Reserve. And I said

441
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: to him, average, I did the trading floor, would you

442
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:30,760
Speaker 1: reckon it is? And he turned around to him and

443
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:33,120
Speaker 1: he said maybe early thirties something in and around that level.

444
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,919
Speaker 1: I said, how many of your guys and girls have

445
00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: seen a rate hike before? He said, many of them haven't.

446
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 1: I said, it's that a problem, he said, yes, it's

447
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: a big problem. The rate hikes cycle came. They got

448
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,320
Speaker 1: used to seeing the ball market continue talked to me

449
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 1: about that inexperience on training desth slale. But still exists.

450
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 1: It certainly does. I mean it's a function of I mean, look,

451
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: I think wealth managers and investment banks. It's like an accordion, right,

452
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 1: So when the markets are really good, you expand you bought,

453
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: you hire a bunch of people, composition girls up. When

454
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 1: when the markets gets a little bit tough, conversation shrinks,

455
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: and the easiest way to do it you go, you hire,

456
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,479
Speaker 1: you're younger in generation. And then they experienced people they

457
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: either had enough of these markets and they retire. So

458
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 1: it's just a natural cycle. But you can even see it,

459
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: forget the the experience. You can always see it also

460
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 1: in the company analysis, you know, I think I can

461
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 1: see some deals getting priced because people forget about the

462
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: cash flow statement and in high yield, which is critical.

463
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,639
Speaker 1: Just to sort of defend people who aren't old or

464
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 1: who haven't been through a cycle here, I mean, even

465
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 1: people who are who have been in the market have

466
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: been penalized for their skepticism. The more skeptical you've been

467
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,240
Speaker 1: over the past ten years, the more you have lost money.

468
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:44,560
Speaker 1: So how much is this just? Also, at a certain point,

469
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: people get beaten into complacency by all of the central

470
00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: banks and by the fact that things have not gotten

471
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: materially worse. I think, I mean, you know, fair enough,

472
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 1: I think you have to believe, you know, whether things

473
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: return to the mean or not. I'm a believer that

474
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 1: things eventually returned to the mean. Sometimes it takes longer, sure,

475
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: And we're in the investment management business. We've got to

476
00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,440
Speaker 1: pay our investors their income um, so we will position

477
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 1: accordingly in a way that you know, if things go terrible,

478
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: we can still transact and we can capture the opportunity.

479
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 1: I mean, that's what our job is. Again. You know,

480
00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 1: that's the advertisement for active management as opposed to be

481
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 1: in passive. So I called. I spoke to pimcot a

482
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: couple of months ago, and I remember Pim Cartainamy, we

483
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 1: want to be liquidity providers, not liquidity demanders. So we

484
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:30,240
Speaker 1: want to sit back from here and then when things

485
00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,080
Speaker 1: start to get choppy, step in. Just walk me through

486
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: your strategy, like how you deal with that idea, your

487
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: framework for dealing with the markets as you think they're

488
00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:40,360
Speaker 1: going to evolve in the coming quarters. I have sympathy

489
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 1: for that idea. I mean, I think it comes down

490
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: to the vehicle you run. If you're running a daily

491
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: liquid vehicle and you're going into less liquid assets, it

492
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: just doesn't work. We've seen multiple examples of that. That

493
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: is the traditional what I call kind of the you know,

494
00:25:56,040 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 1: the liquidity illusion. Um. But if you're running private equity

495
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: like structure funds where you don't need immediate needs, sure, Look,

496
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: I think the simplest example I can give you, and

497
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: I know I've stated the stat before. Look at the

498
00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 1: belt that happened to the bank loan market in December.

499
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,479
Speaker 1: You know, bank loans is an odd instrument. They settled

500
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: in seven days. So when you have aggressive redemptions continuously,

501
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 1: what happens is you see a notable drop in price.

502
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: Because most funds now have credit lines that they can

503
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:29,359
Speaker 1: tap to meet that they liquidity liquidity redemptions. But eventually

504
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:33,520
Speaker 1: you have to sell aggressively if you're consistently getting redemptions.

505
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 1: Bank loan outflows. We're sixteen billion, that's one percent of

506
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 1: the US bank loan market, and we saw a six

507
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 1: percent drop in NAV. That's nothing. One percent six percent

508
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 1: drop in NAV. I love John the idea of you

509
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 1: calling up pimcod, Hey, Pimco, how's it going. I actually wrong.

510
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,399
Speaker 1: They went to see them. I flew out. I know

511
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: I remember that. Actually it was. It was a really good,

512
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 1: A really good Have enough money to tell one e

513
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: Pimcock very clear. I think you need a certain amount

514
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: of money to get night, to get that directed direct

515
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 1: line in. I guess I want to know when you

516
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: talk about the pessimism that you have and the downturn

517
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 1: that you're expecting and credit, how significant will it be,

518
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 1: because right now I'm looking at a ten point to

519
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 1: percent gain year to date in u as high led

520
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:27,159
Speaker 1: pods I have. I have no idea. I mean, it

521
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: depends what the circumstances are. The circumstances are changing by today.

522
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think anybody expected the second round

523
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: of terrofs coming through. That's going to be felt more

524
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: on the consumer um And I know from my discussions

525
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 1: on the consumer companies in high yield look on average

526
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 1: they turn their inventory about two times a year, right,

527
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: so a lot of the inventory has been pre ordered

528
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 1: for this year. You won't even see it in the numbers.

529
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 1: So that's the other thing, Like there's a time lag

530
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 1: in this, so it will really hit next year. You know,

531
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: you had ten hit on your gross prop margins and

532
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:57,560
Speaker 1: you're not really de leveraging, and many of them don't

533
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 1: you much free cash flow, you know the credit at

534
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 1: Risk HAST three price. Great to catch up with you

535
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 1: as always, What a morning to have Lolly top Cholie

536
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 1: with us j O H C M senior fund manager

537
00:28:08,600 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: breaking down some of the moves in credit and beyond

538
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:28,520
Speaker 1: and fixed income and equity this morning. Right now, we

539
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 1: are looking at a pretty ugly market, which raises a

540
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: question of how much China's allowance of the when to

541
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: go above seven per dollar, how much that disrupts existing

542
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: positioning among hedge funds, how much, how quickly people can

543
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 1: adapt to this. I'm so pleased to say that we

544
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:49,720
Speaker 1: have Mark Connors with US joining from Credit SWEE. He

545
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,240
Speaker 1: is global head of Prime Brokerage, Portfolio and Risk Advisory. Mark.

546
00:28:53,680 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 1: I love getting your insights because you have real good

547
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: on the ground feelers out as to how hedge funds

548
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: are positioning, how they are thinking, and I'm just wondering

549
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: heading into this weekend when China did make this move

550
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: or allow this move to happen. How are people positioned?

551
00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: How are hedge funds kind of looking for things to progress?

552
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: Thank you, Lisa, and morning you're you're right into an

553
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: ugly tape. And hedge funds had felt this earlier because

554
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 1: they came into the weekend and actually into the month

555
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 1: defensively positioned and defensive. We mean that their whole footprint,

556
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: their leverage profile was at a bottom decile level on

557
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: a two year look back. So quant funds, the very

558
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: leveraged active trade UH profile they've taken in their leverage

559
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 1: profile because they weren't seeing the ball. They weren't seeing

560
00:29:42,840 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 1: the ball since his earliest two thousand eighteen, when very

561
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 1: high profile hedge funds were saying what's happening with the

562
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 1: market with value and momentum June of eighteen, And I

563
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: mentioned that because that was when we first had that

564
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 1: tariff initiated talks. So we're talking about is how macro

565
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: impacts especially to see and why as it relates to

566
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: low growth impacts market dynamics um and hedge funds took

567
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 1: down their positioning because of it. So they saw it

568
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 1: and now the rest of the market seeing it. So Mark,

569
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: when you look across the spectrum of hedge funds, what

570
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,200
Speaker 1: are some of the strategies right now that are attracting

571
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 1: the most inflows? All right, so our cap services team

572
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 1: would would say macro um strategies. There's definitely some UM.

573
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: So the hedge fund industry we should say, well are

574
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: you long short or your macro are you event? Those

575
00:30:36,480 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: were kind of nineties uh, indoctrinated or UM created funds,

576
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: But Paul, they've changed now to say, a large platform

577
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: will say, listen, we have a multi strating we have

578
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: an event. But you know we have we have this

579
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,000
Speaker 1: one great idea. Do you want to fund it? It's

580
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,800
Speaker 1: called a fund of one. So the industries maturing is

581
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 1: becoming more of a business and it has bespoke offerings.

582
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: They're not just saying come into our big come mingle.

583
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: It's becoming more of a complex asset management UM entity.

584
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: And that's what's happening. So the result of that, you know,

585
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 1: all that, all those words I just said, is the

586
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: industry is consolidating and the bigger getting bigger. Because the

587
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 1: market is tough, it's tough to make money, so you

588
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 1: have to change your business plan, and that's what's happening. Mark.

589
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 1: I love it. Just all those words that I was saying,

590
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: this is what it means. It's getting tough out there.

591
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 1: I mean, Mark, honestly, I'm trying to figure out whether

592
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: this is sort of indicative of the fact that markets

593
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 1: don't have that much more to fall, because there is

594
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,560
Speaker 1: a feeling that the FETE is going to support things,

595
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: and because heading into this people were to sort of

596
00:31:37,520 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: position defensively. It's not like this is going to disrupt

597
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: some sort of consensus trade. What's your view on that

598
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 1: the hedge funds will not be the sellers in this market,

599
00:31:46,920 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: and they have not been for the last several days,

600
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,600
Speaker 1: so you're dead on there. However, like we saw in

601
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: Q four, the sellers in October were not hedge funds.

602
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: They were long only. So if we're punching to new

603
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: levels in the CN why which means that it's it's

604
00:32:02,880 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 1: an area that we haven't explored before north of seven Um,

605
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: They're doing it because we think the trajectory. I think

606
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 1: that the trajectory of global growth is lower, which means

607
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 1: more revisions to earning his models or expectations. So let's

608
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,480
Speaker 1: take a step back. I'm gonna pointed to one graph, Lee,

609
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: so that you and I always talked about, or I

610
00:32:21,200 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 1: always asked you to to look at and and we

611
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 1: shared the US ten year versus bund. So to me,

612
00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 1: that at like a hit to eighty when Trump was elected.

613
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 1: It's it's the spread between the minus fifty bund and

614
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 1: the and the one, and it's compressed. It used to

615
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 1: be wide, which meant that the US has more inflation,

616
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,560
Speaker 1: more growth, and has come in And the point we're

617
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,800
Speaker 1: one water table. So if the U s thinks that

618
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: they're different and there's exceptionalism, they have to think again,

619
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: we are migrating to the trajectory of Europe and Asia. Okay,

620
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 1: So Mark, this is a really important point and it

621
00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: raises a concern that a lot of people have, which

622
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 1: is the US is heading negative, just the way that

623
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: are up in Japan are Do you think that is

624
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 1: plausible that we're going to see negative treasury yields in

625
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 1: the next few years. A one percent tenure is a

626
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,240
Speaker 1: is a probability, not a possibility. So we'll start there

627
00:33:13,000 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: is a likelihood, but we'll have that sooner than later.

628
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 1: That's a big car that is a big call. Yeah. So,

629
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 1: so it's interesting, Mark, I mean, so what are you seeing.

630
00:33:20,280 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: You mentioned the consolidation in the hedge fund business. It

631
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 1: seems like, you know, it's all come down to the

632
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 1: Citadels and the point seventy two of the world. And

633
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: is that good for the industry? The consolidation we're seeing,

634
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 1: it's necessary in order to play today's game. You have

635
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,320
Speaker 1: to achieve scale. You have to invest in technology, you

636
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: have to invest in data, and you have to invest

637
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: in a new core of people with skills. And as

638
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 1: I said, you then have to leverage your existing platform

639
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 1: for new products, which means business development people. Uh, six

640
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 1: people or twelve people in a room can't do that alone.

641
00:33:57,520 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: It doesn't mean that those animals don't exist and won't

642
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 1: continue to exist, but they won't drive growth in the industry,

643
00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: and they do serve a purpose. There are there niches

644
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:10,160
Speaker 1: that are served by smaller firms, but again that's a niche.

645
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 1: So Mark, okay, so you said that treasure yield heading

646
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 1: to one percent, Tending your treasure yelds heading to one

647
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 1: percent is a probability, not a possibility. You see convergence

648
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 1: in rates around the world. I'm wondering whether this happens

649
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: independent of another recession or whether a recession is seeming

650
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: increasingly likely. And so that part I I can't speak

651
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 1: to us sort of out of my domain of expertise. Well,

652
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 1: is that what people are positioned for. People are positioned

653
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: for a convergence of growth sort of approaching the term,

654
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 1: you know, terminal velocity. Is it recession? I wouldn't say

655
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: people are not position for recession now, um, but the

656
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 1: our position for a convergence of growth approaching zero. And

657
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: the FETE is as well. They they are trying to

658
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:03,040
Speaker 1: redefine our star. They're absolutely changing the way they UM

659
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: execute their mandates. Uh. And that's come from Bullard over

660
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 1: the past eighteen months pretty clearly. So if they don't

661
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 1: know where our star is, UM, people are gonna look

662
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:16,280
Speaker 1: to technical and sentiment data and back to the tenure

663
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 1: boon spread. It's I think average is less than a

664
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:23,319
Speaker 1: hundred basis points over the past fifteen years, and if

665
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 1: we go back to that mean, the tenure will be

666
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 1: at fifty basis points. So one percent using historical patterns

667
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 1: is not a very difficult target to hit. Mark Connor

668
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: is always fascinating having hearing your thoughts on the hedge

669
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: fun business. Mark Connor's Credit Swiss Global Head of Prime Brokerage,

670
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 1: Portfolio and Risk Advisory, and thanks for listening to the

671
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

672
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

673
00:35:56,320 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

674
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio