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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen twenty twenty five thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 1: fifty and the kick.

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Speaker 2: Is Block covers Football.

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Speaker 3: Laura stunned us, Oh my goodness, please stumble and bumble

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Speaker 3: the latter turn to tatter on the episode j the lad.

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Speaker 1: Table, Off the Field the night.

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Speaker 3: My god, it's not the size of the dog in

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Speaker 3: the fighting, it's the size of the fight.

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Speaker 1: Get all. Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast.

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Speaker 1: This is your five deep dive. I'm Mike Calbury's joined

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Speaker 1: by my co host Duck. Three weeks in the books,

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Speaker 1: we are eleven and one in our best bet segments.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to pat ourselves on the back though,

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Speaker 1: because we finally got bit. I mean, Doc, why don't

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Speaker 1: we just jump right into it. You had another winner

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Speaker 1: in hands covering the number in the second half talk

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Speaker 1: at Cincinnati Bowling Green. I know this is the sounding

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Speaker 1: off segment. You want to fire from the hip right away.

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Speaker 1: We have so much to get to in this episode,

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Speaker 1: so let's not waste any time. You can have the floor.

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Speaker 1: Just absolutely call out the Cincinnati coaching staff. What you

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Speaker 1: gotta says sound.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it was just so brutal for Cincinnati.

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Speaker 4: Mike three separate times in the second half they were

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Speaker 4: outside the number, and you allowed Drew Pine to go

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Speaker 4: twenty nine for thirty six for two seventy four, including

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Speaker 4: fifteen straight completions in the second half. We had a

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Speaker 4: bogus pass interference in the fourth quarter which extended a

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Speaker 4: BG drive where they ended up punching it in for seven,

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Speaker 4: and you just couldn't get stops in the second half.

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Speaker 4: I was really stunned at the Cincinnati secondary their ability

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Speaker 4: to lock down receivers. This was still a competitive game.

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Speaker 4: This wasn't a thirty eight point blowout. You're only up

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Speaker 4: three touchdowns and you're not locking in. So I was

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Speaker 4: just really stunned by how they drew that up in

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Speaker 4: the second half. In the pass coverage unit, just allowing

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Speaker 4: Bowling Green to shred in the second half.

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Speaker 2: So shame on you, Cincinnati secondary. That was brutal.

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Speaker 1: Just for a bit of balance here. If you're gonna

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Speaker 1: call out a secondary, I'm gonna call out a run defense,

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Speaker 1: specifically the liberty run defense. I told you, Jerry Fallwell,

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Speaker 1: loving sons of bitches, just stop Cam Cook. That's all

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Speaker 1: it would have taken to win this game. But no,

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Speaker 1: you know, Cam Wimset did exactly what I thought he

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Speaker 1: was gonna do. Go six for twelve for like fifty yards.

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Speaker 1: Can't throw the ball down field? They should have been

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Speaker 1: stacking the box. Eight and nine men. Every single eye

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Speaker 1: on Cam Cook. What does he do? He goes through

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Speaker 1: twenty nine carries for one hundred and ninety five yards.

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Speaker 1: They ran for almost three fifty on the ground. Just

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Speaker 1: load the box, dare them to beat you downfield. And

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Speaker 1: then because of it all the running they were in

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Speaker 1: third and manageables all night. They were eight for fourteen

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Speaker 1: on third down. Just shame for that liberty defense. And

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Speaker 1: Jamie Chadwell, usually a buttoned up coach, he knows how

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Speaker 1: to take away team strengths. Apparently not in this one. Now,

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Speaker 1: before we get into best bets, there is a quick

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Speaker 1: the best bets right now, and a reminder to our

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Speaker 1: audience if you want to go ahead and tail those,

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Speaker 1: there's a quick slip link in the podcast video description,

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Speaker 1: slash bet Now, Duck, let's talk about your best bets here.

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Speaker 1: You went one in one last week, suffered your first

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Speaker 1: loss of the whole season, but as you mentioned, it

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Speaker 1: was covering there late in the game. Every opportunity to

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Speaker 1: stay perfect on the season, You're fired up to get

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Speaker 1: back into it. This is actually a game that's moving

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Speaker 1: away from you, but it's still within range for you

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Speaker 1: to play it. I'm talking about Wazoo traveling to Denton

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Speaker 1: to take on the North Texas Screaming Eagles, the Mean

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Speaker 1: Green whatever they want to call themselves. They've been pretty

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Speaker 1: good right out of the gate this year. They're coming

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Speaker 1: off a gritty overtime win against Western Michigan. They rebounded

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Speaker 1: for a very slow start to that game, they score

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Speaker 1: twenty points in the second half, and they have that

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Speaker 1: walk off touchdown in overtime to take it thirty three

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Speaker 1: to thirty. Wazoo meanwhile, it's coming off an impressive twenty

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Speaker 1: three point win of their own against San Diego State,

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Speaker 1: but the running game remains stuck in the mud. How

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Speaker 1: are you seeing this home game playing out for North

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Speaker 1: Texas and Lazoo.

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Speaker 4: Well, I'm going to hold true to what we believe

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Speaker 4: is true and what we researched all off season, and

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Speaker 4: North Texas's defense is vastly improved. It may not look

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Speaker 4: like it based on the final score up in Kalamazoo,

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Speaker 4: but I felt that North Texas defense was put in

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Speaker 4: some really tough spots and Western Michigan really benefited from

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Speaker 4: three short field touchdowns in that game to kind of

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Speaker 4: inflate their point total. I think you're going to see

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Speaker 4: Washington State now first time on the road.

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Speaker 2: This is the first of four.

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Speaker 4: Times where they travel east of the Mountain time zone,

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Speaker 4: and I think the operation might just look a little

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Speaker 4: bit jerky now traveling to the foreign land. I think

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Speaker 4: we're going to see North Texas really be able to

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Speaker 4: with Skylar Cassidy, draw it up and stifle that Washington

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Speaker 4: State rushing attack. I think we're going to find, you know,

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Speaker 4: they're not going to be able to throw the ball

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Speaker 4: as effectively. They don't throw it effectively anyway. But when

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Speaker 4: you look at Washington State's game against San Diego State,

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Speaker 4: there was a five minute stretch where Washington State scored

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Speaker 4: sixteen points and the game kind of went sideways on

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Speaker 4: San Diego State. There was also a phantom offsides penalty

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Speaker 4: that negated a blocked punt, which really swung the momentum

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Speaker 4: away from San Diego State and it just kind of

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Speaker 4: spiraled out of control. I think the other thing that

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Speaker 4: we'll see that is going to be really important here

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Speaker 4: is this is the first opponent that has a competent

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Speaker 4: passing attack that will challenge Washington State's secondary. Idaho couldn't

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Speaker 4: do it. San Diego State and Jaden Denegal couldn't do it.

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Speaker 4: I know mess to Maker is ready to go here,

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Speaker 4: and this group of receivers is really going to put

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Speaker 4: the stress on Tucker Large and the safety group for

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Speaker 4: Washington State. I think they get completely shredded here in

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Speaker 4: the secondary. Mess to Make her completing sixty six percent

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Speaker 4: of his passes this year with five touchdowns and hasn't

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Speaker 4: thrown an interception. The threat of a passing attack will

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Speaker 4: prevent Washington State from creeping eight in the box and

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Speaker 4: it'll really create some holes in the run game as well. Now,

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Speaker 4: as far as offensively for Wazoo, there should be absolutely

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Speaker 4: no punch and no explosiveness here from the Kugs. Offensively,

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Speaker 4: North Texas is fifth nationally in pass explosiveness allowed Washington

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Speaker 4: States just one hundred and thirty fourth in pass explosiveness

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Speaker 4: North Texas fifty ninth nationally and pass down success rate

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Speaker 4: Washington State one thirty fourth. Washington State is just ninety

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Speaker 4: fourth in success rate. They're just not a real connected

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Speaker 4: group here offensively, and I don't anticipate that we're going

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Speaker 4: to see it get figured out on the road against

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Speaker 4: North Texas. Here, I'm giving Skyler Cassidy and his group

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Speaker 4: the benefit of the doubt here to draw it.

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Speaker 2: Up against Washington State. I've got this game.

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Speaker 4: I think North Texas will control the second half. They'll

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Speaker 4: be able to possess the football, they'll stifle anything Washington

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Speaker 4: State wants to do offensively, and they'll win this game

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Speaker 4: by a couple of touchdowns here in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: All right, for my best bet, I'm headed down to

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Speaker 1: the magic city, That, of course is Birmingham, Alabama. And

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Speaker 1: as Shakespeare once coined the phrase strange bedfellows, that's exactly

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Speaker 1: where I am here in week three, I, Michael Calbry's

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Speaker 1: of Free Will, am entering a gambling pact with Trent

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Speaker 1: Ferris Stilford. This promise I will make, I'll make very

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Speaker 1: few promises that this promise I will make you will

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Speaker 1: get the best of me. It's gonna do it. It

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Speaker 1: just feels right in this spot because when I look

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Speaker 1: at it, this is two thirds of a play on

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Speaker 1: at times dynamic UAB offense and one third of a

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Speaker 1: fade against an acron team that I believe has completely

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Speaker 1: bottomed out. The Zips haven't scored yet in twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: outscored seventy eight to zero in back to back shutouts

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Speaker 1: at the hands of Wyoming and Nebraska. There is no

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Speaker 1: pass to Bowl eligibility for the Zips at this point.

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Speaker 1: Ben Finley can't even elevate this unit on his own.

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Speaker 1: He's regressed behind a patchwork offensive line, and they've had

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Speaker 1: no success whatsoever replacing their top three wide receivers from

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Speaker 1: a year ago. UAB, meanwhile, is healthier than they've been

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Speaker 1: all season long. On the defensive side of things, they

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Speaker 1: have laser focus because they know that they need to

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Speaker 1: not just win this game, but needs to be a

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Speaker 1: big statement win. So it's a springboard into the rest

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Speaker 1: of this season. Because Boy eligibility is still hanging on

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Speaker 1: by a thread for them, even though they came off

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Speaker 1: that loss against Navy. But let's talk about that for

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Speaker 1: a second. When you look at what they did against

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Speaker 1: the midshipman, they scored three straight first half touchdowns. They

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Speaker 1: got the ball, they punched it in for six. They

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Speaker 1: even added a field goal before halftime. So four drives,

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Speaker 1: twenty four points, and then things got murky. There was

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Speaker 1: not one, but two lightning delays. And sometimes with a

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Speaker 1: younger team, a team that hasn't played together as much

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Speaker 1: it was Jalen Kittnas I believe ninth or tenth career start,

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Speaker 1: it can be difficult to maintain that level of play,

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Speaker 1: and it kind of fell apart. But if you listen

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Speaker 1: to coffee with coach or coach with coffee, can't remember

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Speaker 1: which one it is. Outside of uab's assistant sports information director,

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Speaker 1: I've watched more of the Trent Dilford pressers than anybody.

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Speaker 1: He looked optimistic, and he's somebody who wears his emotions

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Speaker 1: on his sleeve. He'll tell you when locker room's falling apart.

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Speaker 1: He'll tell you when there's issues in terms of effort.

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Speaker 1: He liked what he saw from his team play against

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Speaker 1: a veteran Navy offense that even though they got him

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Speaker 1: into some bad situations and they had an opportunity to

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Speaker 1: take down Horvath in the backfield a few times. That

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Speaker 1: offense with chronic as predicted, was able to shred them.

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Speaker 1: They scored thirty eight points. They could have scored more.

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Speaker 1: Obviously they played that methodical pace, but he still liked

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Speaker 1: what he saw enough in terms of effort in terms

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Speaker 1: of getting them into some third downs to be able

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Speaker 1: to carry that momentum over here. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: where you're going to see the difference here. At This

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Speaker 1: UAB defense is a little bit better, they're a little

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Speaker 1: bit healthier, and Akron on the other side, I just

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Speaker 1: don't see what they're going to do to stop this

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Speaker 1: UAB offense because they look completely lost on that side

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Speaker 1: of the ball. There is a gulf between these two

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Speaker 1: teams in terms of EPA per play in terms of

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Speaker 1: uab's offense and acrons defense. Uab's offense fourteenth, Acron's defense

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Speaker 1: one hundred and four. They'll be able to open up

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Speaker 1: a lead in this game, and I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to put that pressure back on Finley to say

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Speaker 1: go ahead, try to catch up and keep pace with

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Speaker 1: an offense that could score thirty five forty five points

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Speaker 1: in this game. I think this is an issue for

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Speaker 1: Akron because they're a dead last and success rate at

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Speaker 1: the FBS level through the air, even with a good quarterback.

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Speaker 1: That tells me they don't have any of the ingredients

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Speaker 1: around him to make this work. He's not a dual

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Speaker 1: threat guy who can just pick up yardage on his own.

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Speaker 1: So all this put together in a blender, and then

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Speaker 1: an added fact, Evan Abrams parachuting in from our research department.

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Speaker 1: He is our director. There team's coming off back to

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Speaker 1: back shoutout losses. In the last twenty years, it's happened

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Speaker 1: twenty five times. They are three and twenty two in

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Speaker 1: the following game straight up and seven sixteen and two

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Speaker 1: against the closing number. So I'm going to go ahead

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Speaker 1: and fade Akron here lay all the way up to

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Speaker 1: two touchdowns with UiB. I think you can find it

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Speaker 1: at about eleven and a half in the market right now.

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Speaker 1: It's my best bet number one here for week three.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about that one?

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Speaker 4: Miami and I how things have changed. You're turning into

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Speaker 4: quite the Trent Dilfer apologist. If I do say so myself,

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Speaker 4: you know, I think this game really is have It's

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Speaker 4: one that'll show major advantages for UAB offensively. I was

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Speaker 4: very impressed and encouraged with what I saw from UAB.

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Speaker 4: That was a really competitive game in the first half.

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Speaker 4: I think their offense was more stifled by the extensive

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Speaker 4: weather delay against Navy than it was against Navy's defense itself.

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Speaker 4: And I think they have a real punch. They've got

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Speaker 4: two dynamic running backs. Kitten has really got grasp of

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Speaker 4: the offense. They've taken such strides since last year when

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Speaker 4: they handed him the reins and took it away from

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Speaker 4: Jacob Zeno. And I think this offense is going to

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Speaker 4: be really one that is going to give Akron fits defensively.

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Speaker 4: Now you look at Akron offensively, they can't convert their down,

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Speaker 4: they can't run the ball with any success consistently. The

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Speaker 4: passing attack is just essentially non existent. Uab's defensive metrics

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Speaker 4: are very poor. They have not performed well against Alabama

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Speaker 4: State or Navy. But I think this is one where

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Speaker 4: UAB defensively can scheme it up up enough and maybe

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Speaker 4: create a little pressure on Finley, make him throw it

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Speaker 4: before he's comfortable and wants to I think UAB will

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Speaker 4: be able to pin Akron down. Akron's team total is

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Speaker 4: about twenty one and a half twenty two and a half.

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Speaker 4: And to bank on this bunch scoring three touchdowns when

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Speaker 4: they haven't scored a single point all season, I'm just

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Speaker 4: not willing to do. I think UAB will be in

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Speaker 4: the high thirties. I think this is a really solid

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Speaker 4: play here to take UAB at home.

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Speaker 1: Now, Doc for your best bet. Number two. We got

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Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan at Kentucky with a total sitting at forty

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Speaker 1: four and a half and ugly start, which has been

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Speaker 1: uncharacteristic for Chris Crane usually he's been coaching up these

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Speaker 1: teams that in recent years has been so much turnover

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Speaker 1: with their roster. You figured with their quarterback play, maybe

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Speaker 1: they could get off to a hot start this year.

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Speaker 1: Hasn't materialized, losing both and losing to Long Islands Go

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Speaker 1: Fighting Sharks last week twenty eight, twenty three, but a

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Speaker 1: lot of points. So how high do you see this

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Speaker 1: game going between the Eagles and the Wildcats?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, my goodness, where do we start with

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Speaker 4: Eastern Michigan losing outright to a really bad Long Island

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Speaker 4: team surrendering four hundred and seventy nine total yards five

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Speaker 4: point one yards per rush against just a really down

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Speaker 4: Long Island Sharks team Eastern Michigan five hundred and forty

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Speaker 4: three yards per game given up this season, and they're

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Speaker 4: surrendering eight yards per play, seven and a half yards

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Speaker 4: per rush, seven touchdowns already given up on the ground,

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Speaker 4: and Eastern Michigan is one twenty ninth nationally in defensive

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Speaker 4: success rates surrendered, one thirty third in defensive EPA per play,

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Speaker 4: and one twenty second in defensive havoc achieved. The defense

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Speaker 4: just does not have enough talent to stop anybody. I

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Speaker 4: don't think they have the horses here. Even if Zach

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Speaker 4: Calzada is limited or doesn't play, I think we'll see

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Speaker 4: Cutter Bowlly throw it around here for Kentucky, and this game,

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Speaker 4: in my opinion, will look a lot different than their

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Speaker 4: game against their first MAC opponent, Toledo, who has a

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Speaker 4: really strong secondary and forced Kentucky to just beat them

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Speaker 4: on the ground. I expect Kentucky to be able to

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Speaker 4: throw the ball a little bit here with a buy

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Speaker 4: on deck, have a little fun. They should run the

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Speaker 4: ball for three hundred yards with several explosive runs. Even

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Speaker 4: if the pace for Kentucky is not there in this game,

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Speaker 4: I think they'll achieve plenty of chunk plays and so

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Speaker 4: their drives, if they have to cover a lot of yards,

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Speaker 4: still won't take a lot of time. But they should

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Speaker 4: have five or six red zone opportunities here against just

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Speaker 4: an atrocious Eastern Michigan defense, the secondary for Eastern Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Should get torched.

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Speaker 4: I fully expect Kentucky to put up a massive number

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Speaker 4: here and kind of just wash the stink away from

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Speaker 4: the loss against Old miss. Now, what I can see

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Speaker 4: is I can see Eastern Michigan having very very little

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Speaker 4: success offensively on the ground, and so what is that

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Speaker 4: going to do. It's going to require them to throw

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Speaker 4: it around with Noah Kim, who's already thrown sixty three

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Speaker 4: passes through two games this year. So we've come to

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Speaker 4: know Eastern Michigan as kind of a team that's real

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Speaker 4: run oriented. But they're not going to be able to

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Speaker 4: run it here, so they'll have to resort to throw

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Speaker 4: in the ball around. I can see them punching in

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Speaker 4: a score or two late here, maybe they get to

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Speaker 4: ten or fourteen, but I expect Kentucky to be in

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Speaker 4: the forties themselves.

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Speaker 2: So I've got this one clearing the bar of forty

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Speaker 2: four and a half.

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Speaker 4: I think forty five maybe is still a good number

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Speaker 4: a year okay there, But I've got this one in

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Speaker 4: the mid fifties, so I think this has still got

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Speaker 4: some meat on the bone left on this one. I

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Speaker 4: think that Kentucky puts up a massive number here, Eastern

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Speaker 4: Michigan's not going to be able to keep them down,

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Speaker 4: and this is going to be a real long season

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Speaker 4: defensively for EMU. Tons of yards and explosives given up.

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Speaker 2: All the way through.

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Speaker 1: This best Bets segment has had a bit of Mac flavor,

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Speaker 1: but I'm going to make it a full fledged Mac

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Speaker 1: segment with a MAC Conference game here Buffalo lank twenty

341
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Speaker 1: two and a half at Kent's listen, already faded Akron.

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Speaker 1: How about we do it with another piss four MAC team.

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Speaker 1: Bill Conley's massive college football rankings. They go from Oregon

344
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Speaker 1: at number one to Oberlin at seven hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: six in the college Ball universe. It plays Kent State

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Speaker 1: one hundred and ninetieth. That means multiple D two teams

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Speaker 1: like Farris State Harding Grand Valleys to They're all above

348
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Speaker 1: the Golden Flash as hell, even North Central out of Illinois,

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Speaker 1: a D three team is only sixteen spots behind Kent.

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Speaker 1: That just gives you a feel for the neighborhood that

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Speaker 1: they're playing in at this point and their offense. Straight up,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to run against Buffalo,

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Speaker 1: absolutely not. They'll be lucky to get to forty rushing

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Speaker 1: yards in this game, which shifts all of their pressure

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Speaker 1: over to the two quarterback system they're rolling with. You

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Speaker 1: know what, the saying you got two quarterbacks, you have

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Speaker 1: zero quarterbacks Drew Deshields and c. J. Montes. I just

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Speaker 1: don't see this coming together for these guys because it's

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Speaker 1: all been boom or busts. For the flashes through the air,

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Speaker 1: they haven't been efficient. But the thing is Pete Lembo

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Speaker 1: and his defensive coordinator Joe Bowen, they spent the whole

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Speaker 1: offseason looking at their nine one year from last season

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Speaker 1: and saying what can we approve on? The number one

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Speaker 1: thing that they needed to improve on was limiting aerial explosives.

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Speaker 1: They were far below average in that department last year.

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Speaker 1: They've really buttoned it up in that regard through two

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Speaker 1: games thus far, because what they do is they walk

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Speaker 1: their safeties back. They're playing that too high safety saying

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Speaker 1: keep everything in front of you. Our run defense will

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Speaker 1: take care of shutting down, you know, the box. And

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Speaker 1: then you got to be efficient. You have to be

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Speaker 1: able to hit those those whole throws. You have to

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Speaker 1: be able to have the timing in the rpo, in

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Speaker 1: the slant game. This is not Kent's bread and butter.

375
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Speaker 1: What they want to do is be able to spark

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Speaker 1: those fifty plus yard plays. I don't see them stringing

377
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Speaker 1: together ten plays scoring drives with any consistency in this game.

378
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Speaker 1: And offensively, Buffalo is fully able to unleash Roberson. You

379
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Speaker 1: saw it last week from a rushing perspective. I think

380
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Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to do it again. I think

381
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Speaker 1: this will be a very similar game script to what

382
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Speaker 1: it was at the end of last year when they

383
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Speaker 1: beat Kent forty three to seven, and the running game

384
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Speaker 1: did the dirty work there. I think it's going to

385
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Speaker 1: be the same formula. Al J. Henderson will probably buy

386
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,639
Speaker 1: for one hundred and fifty one hundred and seventy five

387
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Speaker 1: yards on the ground, and I think Roberson is an

388
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Speaker 1: upgrade as a runner over Agbana last year who had

389
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Speaker 1: fifty plus. So I'll say Buffalo forty two to ten

390
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Speaker 1: and a snoozer on the road to kick off their

391
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Speaker 1: MAC season.

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Speaker 3: I'm out of time, not I go.

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Speaker 1: Maybe to get the parent Come on, all right, we

394
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Speaker 1: turned nowt to our four minute offense. We don't have

395
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Speaker 1: an official play, but I believe that Duck has a lean.

396
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Speaker 1: Between Duke and Tulane the mensible. What do you have here?

397
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Speaker 4: Yeah, Darien Mensa returns to Tulane. Duke's kind of licking

398
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Speaker 4: their runs a little bit after gift wrapping their forty

399
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Speaker 4: five to nineteen loss against Illinois at home last week.

400
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Speaker 4: You know, they were such a public underdog play to

401
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Speaker 4: go in there, or to have Illinois come in there

402
00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,199
Speaker 4: and upset them and you lose the turnover battle five oh,

403
00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,480
Speaker 4: which was just too much to overcome here. But I

404
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Speaker 4: thought outside of that, Duke actually played okay in this one.

405
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 4: It's just so amazing week to week how the perception

406
00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 4: on these teams can change. But here we are Duke

407
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:44,080
Speaker 4: the underdog in this matchup and the line moving away

408
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Speaker 4: from them. I think this will be a fun game.

409
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Speaker 4: It should be a really competitive matchup here for Duke

410
00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,160
Speaker 4: and Tulane, but I think Duke will win this game

411
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Speaker 4: with their defensive havoc. They've already registered seven sacks and

412
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Speaker 4: twenty tackles for loss this season.

413
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Speaker 2: U Lane really.

414
00:20:00,760 --> 00:20:04,960
Speaker 4: Hasn't given up the havoc offensively up to this point,

415
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 4: but they've played two teams that are not known for

416
00:20:07,840 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 4: accumulating defensive havoc in South Alabama and Northwestern. Some of

417
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Speaker 4: the things I look at for two lane offensively just

418
00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 4: one hundred and nineteenth nationally in offensive explosiveness five point

419
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,200
Speaker 4: six yards per play, with Retz left leading the team

420
00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 4: in rushing five yards per pass attempt. I think Duke

421
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 4: in the secondary will do well to bottle up this

422
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 4: two lane pass attack. Tulane has not been able thus

423
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 4: far this season to really connect on a lot of

424
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Speaker 4: the deep shots in this one, so I don't expect

425
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 4: Tulane to be able to accrue the explosive chunk plays

426
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 4: needed to move the ball on Duke, and I really

427
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 4: don't think that they're going to put a lot of

428
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 4: drives together. When you look at Tulane, their first and

429
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 4: second down success has been limited this year. They've been

430
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,439
Speaker 4: in third down a ton already through just two games

431
00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:00,840
Speaker 4: thirty two third down attempts me to question of what

432
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,920
Speaker 4: you're doing on first and second down to have to

433
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 4: put yourself in those spots where you have to convert

434
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,639
Speaker 4: on third down so frequently in order to win these games.

435
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 4: And I don't think that they're going to be able

436
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,160
Speaker 4: to convert at.

437
00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 2: A high rate against Duke.

438
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 4: Duke's got a real opportunity here, you know, when you

439
00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,440
Speaker 4: look at the front seven to create problems in the

440
00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 4: run game for two lane. I think if Rats Left

441
00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 4: tries to rake down the Duke defense with his mobility,

442
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 4: it's not going to go well. I think Duke will

443
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 4: be acutely aware of how.

444
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:31,480
Speaker 2: To defend that.

445
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 4: And then offensively, Duke's gonna run tempo, They're gonna play fast.

446
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 4: They're going to attempt to rack up five hundred yards

447
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 4: per game like they have done over the last couple

448
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:47,480
Speaker 4: of games this season. I think two lane was really

449
00:21:47,680 --> 00:21:52,120
Speaker 4: fortuitous this season against South Alabama, which they started down

450
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 4: fourteen nothing, they benefited from some timely turnovers, and we

451
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:58,719
Speaker 4: saw Northwestern in Week one just be overwhelmed by two

452
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 4: lane turn the ball over so consistently which set up

453
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 4: the short fields. But I'm still not extremely impressed with

454
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:10,200
Speaker 4: what I've seen from two lane offensively here, So I

455
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 4: think the perception on Duke is a little two down.

456
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 4: I think they clean up the turnovers, they clean up

457
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,120
Speaker 4: some of the foolish mistakes, and they go in there

458
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 4: into two lane in a real save your season spot.

459
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 4: You don't want to drop two in a row this

460
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 4: early in the season before starting conference play with North

461
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 4: Carolina State coming in, so I lean Duke to go

462
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,240
Speaker 4: in there and get the win as an underdog.

463
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: Football is back, and underdog is the best place to

464
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470
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Speaker 1: Ob Williams roller coaster during Monday Night Football. He looks

471
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 1: like vintage Patrick Mahomes on that opening drive, and the

472
00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: rest of the game he looks like every Bears quarterbacks

473
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Speaker 1: since Jim McMahon pretty much, so intriguing myself to more

474
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,160
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475
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Speaker 1: Travis Attn's rushing. Yard's gonna go higher on that because

476
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478
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479
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Speaker 1: and why. That's four six seven three six nine. All Right,

497
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: It's time for us to get back into our G

498
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: five moneyline parlay. We've been close in back to back weeks.

499
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Speaker 1: It's time to cash this one.

500
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Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

501
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Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay. I'm gonna get started, Duck.

502
00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go to the Shoela Bowl. I like the

503
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 1: underdog Owls traveling down to Miami to take on their

504
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 1: rival here. And let's just call it what it is.

505
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: It has been a showcase for the Owls in the

506
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 1: Shoela Bowl. They've won seven straight in the series. They've

507
00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 1: dog walked the Panthers by an average of thirty points

508
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: per game during this wing streak, and in this game,

509
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 1: only one side has shown offensive signs of life. Velt

510
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,440
Speaker 1: Camp bounce back from that awful opener against maryl and

511
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 1: all those turnovers. He throws five touchdowns through the air

512
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 1: against FAM you the passing game will shine here and

513
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 1: questions remain to me, at least if FIU can counter that.

514
00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 1: Kewan Jenkins comes in the preseason Offensive Player of the

515
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 1: Year in Converce USA. He has yet to throw a

516
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: passing touchdown. He has a rushing touchdown, but the passing

517
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 1: game has left a lot to be desired. And Willie

518
00:25:28,040 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: Simmons offense continues to be dink and dunk and that's

519
00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: going to put the Panthers in a lot of third

520
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: down situations. And through two weeks at least, fau's third

521
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 1: down defense has been stout. Their borderline top fifty, holding

522
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: opponents just a thirty percent conversion rate. I think that's

523
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 1: where this game is going to swing. There's gonna be

524
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: some empty possessions for FIU, and then when the Owls

525
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 1: have the ball. I've seen it. When Velt Camp is

526
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,080
Speaker 1: not under constant duress as he was against the Terra Pins,

527
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 1: he can pick you apart. He's got a deep receiving core.

528
00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:58,600
Speaker 1: He's comfortable spreading the ball out to six or seven

529
00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: different receivers. Just Messer. That's what we talked a lot

530
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: about in the preseason. He was going to be that

531
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: clear number one. But would anyone else elevate their play?

532
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:09,639
Speaker 1: I've seen enough through two weeks. Also, Pitbull Stadium, it

533
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 1: can get raucus. I never want to underplay the value

534
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 1: of Pitbull Stadium. The three oh five Dolly, but I

535
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 1: want to save that for theme nights. All right. It's

536
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 1: not Miami Vice Knight, it's not this guy in blue Knight.

537
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 1: They're just going with a Shoe La Bowl rally towel.

538
00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:25,399
Speaker 1: I don't think that's going to be enough to be

539
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:27,040
Speaker 1: able to elevate the home team. I'm going to go

540
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: fau as a slight dog plus one twenty. What are

541
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 1: you tacking on to this money line, parlay Duck, I'm.

542
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 4: Taking Troy on the money line against Memphis. Troy has

543
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:39,640
Speaker 4: taken on a significantly tougher schedule up to this point.

544
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 4: They played a better FCS opponent, and they went fifteen

545
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:42,880
Speaker 4: rounds with Clemson.

546
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:43,360
Speaker 2: Last week.

547
00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,800
Speaker 4: They led that game sixteen to three at a half,

548
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 4: and it was just twenty to sixteen into the fourth quarter.

549
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 4: Troy even left points on the field in the first

550
00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:55,240
Speaker 4: half with a missed field goal as time expired, and

551
00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 4: then of course it goes touchdown interception, touchdown interception, field

552
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,080
Speaker 4: goal for Clemson to take control. But I was really

553
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 4: impressed with how Troy went in there and competed and

554
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 4: was able to defensively really hold down the Clemson attack.

555
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:12,400
Speaker 4: You know, you look at this Troy Memphis game, which

556
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 4: means a lot more to Troy than it does Memphis,

557
00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 4: and they were right there last year in the game

558
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:17,880
Speaker 4: until Goose Crowder got hurt.

559
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 2: He's back.

560
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:21,960
Speaker 4: He played really well last week, completing nineteen to thirty

561
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 4: one for two hundred and twenty three yards. And I

562
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 4: think they have two major dudes at receiver and Trey Taylor.

563
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 2: And Ethan Connor.

564
00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 4: And if they can start to get rale Rod Thomas

565
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 4: more involved in the passing attack with Goose, I think

566
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 4: that this passing game can really give the Memphis secondary

567
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 4: some real problems. Defensively, Troy have been very stout on

568
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 4: the ground, allowing just three point three yards per carry,

569
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 4: and they've been good on third down. The Memphis offense

570
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:51,440
Speaker 4: is really predicated on trying to run the football, get

571
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 4: the backs going downhill, run a little play action off

572
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 4: of it, or run a little QB power. I just

573
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:02,760
Speaker 4: think think Troy's gonna be able to limit what Memphis

574
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 4: wants to do on the ground. We're going to have

575
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 4: more pressure put on the shoulders of Brendan Lewis, who

576
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,439
Speaker 4: will have a lot of things throw it at him

577
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 4: this week on the road, much more than what UT

578
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 4: Chattanooga or Georgia State we're able to do. So I

579
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 4: think you've got a real spirited game here from Troy.

580
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,160
Speaker 4: They want to win this game. It means a lot

581
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 4: more to them. Goose is back healthy and has looked

582
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 4: sharp thus far this season. Troy's going to get this

583
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 4: win at home.

584
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: Check out the Parlay Express account in the free award

585
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586
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588
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Speaker 1: If you were tuning in during the first week for

589
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Speaker 1: our live show that was with Stuck, Colin Wilson, Duck

590
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Speaker 1: and myself our best Bets segment at the top of

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Speaker 1: they pop. You're also going to find the quick slip

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Speaker 1: link in this episode description both the video podcast and

596
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Speaker 1: the audio podcast, or you can visit us over at

597
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Speaker 1: subscribed not only to this podcast, but our video channel

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Speaker 1: as well. That's BBOC over on YouTube. All right, let's

602
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 1: get to the good stuff here. This is kind of

603
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 1: right before we get to the cutting room floor, our

604
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: two minute offense duck fire Away. I know that you

605
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: have some FCS action here, so there's going to be

606
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: some projections, but give us the windows that you're targeting

607
00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 1: with the spreads.

608
00:29:31,360 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Georgia State is taking on Murray State at home.

609
00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 4: They're projected minus nineteen. I'd lay up to twenty six

610
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,640
Speaker 4: and a half here. Murray State has competed fairly well

611
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 4: in their first two games of the season against East

612
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 4: Tennessee State in Southeastern Louisiana, but are now on their

613
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 4: third straight really difficult opponent and Georgia State has to

614
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:51,000
Speaker 4: be starving for a win after losing against Old Miss

615
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 4: and Memphis. Murray State defensively five hundred and twenty two

616
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 4: yards per game surrendered six point three yards per rush

617
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 4: given up, and they're allowing three hundred and twenty three

618
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 4: three yards per game on the ground. They've surrendered fifty

619
00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 4: six percent third down conversion successfully against them, and Murray

620
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 4: State has also allowed fourteen red zone opportunities through their

621
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 4: first three games. Just absolutely poorest defensively, and they don't

622
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 4: have the talent to hang here. I really look now

623
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:19,840
Speaker 4: at this point in the season for depth to take over,

624
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 4: and they've been outscored in the first half the season

625
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,920
Speaker 4: seventy two to thirteen. So I expect the Panthers to

626
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 4: get up on Murray State early and often and win

627
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 4: this one really big. Murray State's also in the first

628
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 4: couple games of the season surrendered forty five points in

629
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 4: each game, So Georgia State will get a big win,

630
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:39,440
Speaker 4: and I think they'll get a win with margin. Next

631
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 4: one I'm looking at is Tennessee Tech. They host Davidson.

632
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 4: They're projected minus thirty. I'd lay up to thirty seven

633
00:30:46,240 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 4: and a half here. Davidson football has fallen on some

634
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 4: really really difficult times here and they may be the

635
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 4: worst team in the non scholarship Pioneer Football League. They

636
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 4: allowed fifty one points to Georgetown and their opener and

637
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 4: fifty five to Elon last week. The defense is giving

638
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 4: up eight yards per play and five hundred and forty

639
00:31:04,720 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 4: five yards per game. Their offense is just averaging three

640
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 4: yards a rush and they've only converted seven out of

641
00:31:10,640 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 4: twenty nine on third down this season. Davidson is very undersized.

642
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 4: They're overmatched. They are at a major disadvantage with not

643
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 4: being able to offer scholarships. The new coaching staff that

644
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:25,120
Speaker 4: has come in is really not scheming it up well situationally.

645
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: They're just not a good football team.

646
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 4: Tennessee Tech dispatched a non D one opponent and then

647
00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:35,520
Speaker 4: they just destroyed SoCon opponent UT chat Nuga last week.

648
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 4: Quarterback transfer from Eastern Washington Cocoa Visperas has played brilliantly

649
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 4: this season, completing sixty seven percent with five touchdowns. The

650
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 4: team's averaging eight yards per rush. Tennessee Tech is going

651
00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,880
Speaker 4: to run all over Davidson. This game will not be

652
00:31:49,960 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 4: close again. I'd lay up to thirty seven and a

653
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 4: half last one. Toledo had their proven game last week

654
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 4: against Western Kentucky in a home revenge spot and destroyed

655
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 4: the Tucker Cleeson got hurt in that game.

656
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:03,280
Speaker 2: Now you have.

657
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 4: FCS Morgan State coming in. Morgan State we talked about

658
00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 4: on the BBOC Live show. They're a formidable bunch. They're

659
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 4: pretty solid defensively. They have really good quarterback play compared

660
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:13,480
Speaker 4: to what they've had at that.

661
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 2: Program for some time.

662
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 4: I think with a conference road game on deck, Toledo

663
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 4: has to be focused on getting out of this game

664
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:22,719
Speaker 4: healthy and then turning the page to mac play. Morgan

665
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: State is two to zero against the number. This year,

666
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 4: they went toe to toe with South Alabama for three

667
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 4: quarters and again the quarterback play with Kobe Masua has

668
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 4: been really improved for Morgan State. I think they go

669
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 4: into the Glass Bull and they keep this game close.

670
00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:41,240
Speaker 4: They're projected to be about thirty six and a half

671
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 4: point underdogs. I'd take up to thirty two and a

672
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 4: half points here with the Bears. I think they'll keep

673
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 4: it within the number, probably lose by twenty one to

674
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 4: twenty six.

675
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 1: All right, time for my two minute offense. Gonna use

676
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,479
Speaker 1: the Sideline's gonna use my one time out remaining if

677
00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: I need it. But I got an underdog, I got

678
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: a favorite and I got an over, let's jump into it.

679
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 1: Yukon at Delaware. I'm gonna go ahead with the home

680
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 1: dog here the Blue Hens catching ten and a half.

681
00:33:03,320 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 1: Make sure to catch that hook before it dives back

682
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: to ten or lower. Listen. The Blue Hens found their

683
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: quarterback Nick Minacuchi, looked great against Colorado through for over

684
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: three hundred yards. Was efficient, show that he's a willing runner.

685
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: And if they hadn't missed a chip shot field goal

686
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, they would have covered that game

687
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: against the buff So I think that's a promising sign. Defensively,

688
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 1: through two games, this is the defense that I thought

689
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: we were going to have. They were top five in

690
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: defensive continuity in terms of returning production year over year,

691
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: and that is showing up on film. They're twenty third

692
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 1: and Havoc seventieth in coverage. They are certainly a top

693
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:36,560
Speaker 1: half conference to USA defense, and I think that's going

694
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: to be able to gum up the works a little

695
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 1: bit for this Huskies offense. Speaking of the Huskies, they're

696
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: coming off a massive emotional letdown. Their win expectancy was

697
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: ninety six point seven percent with three nineteen remaining on

698
00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,680
Speaker 1: the road at the Carrier Dome against Syracuse. They end

699
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: up allowing Syracuse to walk the ball down the field.

700
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 1: They score, then they race back. They kick a field

701
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 1: goal to force overtime, but with two shots from the

702
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 1: fourth yard line they cannot score in overtime. They lose,

703
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: just a gut wrenching loss. This is a spot where

704
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 1: I want to take the dog with the points right

705
00:34:07,200 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 1: after something like that. South Florida at Miami. South Florida

706
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 1: the toast of the town in G five. Listen, I've

707
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: been a part of it. I had them on the

708
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 1: money line in the opener against Boise. But to me,

709
00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: that loss by the Florida Gators, that's late at the

710
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,359
Speaker 1: feet of Billy Napier. His team was just not emotionally ready.

711
00:34:23,560 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 1: They certainly did not have the explosiveness you would expect

712
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 1: out of an SEC team. And I think it's more

713
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: about Florida than it was about USF in that spot.

714
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 1: Now they catch the Canes off of de facto bye week,

715
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 1: and it's giving Corey Heatherman this defensive staff more time

716
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 1: to prepare. I know it's not Apple sapples, but if

717
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 1: you look at last year when he was Minnesota's defensive coordinator,

718
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:45,960
Speaker 1: they welcome a usc team that was ranked eleventh in

719
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: the country at the time. They're spread offense. They want

720
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: to throw it all over the yard. He absolutely put

721
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 1: Miller Moss in a box in that game, and I

722
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 1: think this one is as simple as can Heatherman scheme

723
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,279
Speaker 1: it up so they can stop Brown's legs, not just

724
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: the scrambling, but all the goal to go the third

725
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: and short, the fourth and short situations. He's someone who's

726
00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:07,560
Speaker 1: consistently getting it with QP power and QB draws. I

727
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 1: think he's going to slow them down in that regard. Also,

728
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 1: mccains are getting a little bit healthier. We may finally

729
00:35:12,360 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 1: see Jojo Trader added to that passing attack. I think

730
00:35:15,440 --> 00:35:18,120
Speaker 1: Miami gets this done and wins by three touchdowns and

731
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: finally the over between Texas State and Arizona State. Sitting

732
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: at fifty seven and a half, this is a get

733
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: right game for Sam Levin and the Sun Devils, who

734
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 1: absolutely laid an egg and start Vegas. The Bobcats are

735
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteenth in explosiveness allowed and they're struggling

736
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 1: with their run fits. I think that's going to be

737
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: a big problem against Arizona State's three headed monster in

738
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:40,399
Speaker 1: their backfield. Defensively, for ASU, if Misssippi State can throw

739
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 1: three passing touchdowns, GJ. Kinney's offensive system is absolutely going

740
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 1: to do damage this unit. In the same exact matchup

741
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: last year in San Marcos scored twenty eight points through

742
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 1: three quarters. They had some issues in the fourth quarter.

743
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: They couldn't get over the hump. They lost thirty one

744
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 1: to twenty eight. But I still see him being able

745
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 1: to scheme things up against Kenny Dillingham and this staff.

746
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 1: He's got Brad, He's shown that he's a very solid

747
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: dual threat quarterback through two games this year. I think

748
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: this is going to cruise past the number of fifty

749
00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 1: seven and a half. That shit boy tug hard harder.

750
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 1: All Right, it's time for the seasonal tug of war here.

751
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 1: It is back to midfield. After Houston took care of

752
00:36:15,280 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: business against Rice, covering in that inner city matchup between

753
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 1: the Cougars and the Owls, we are going to travel

754
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,879
Speaker 1: to South Philly for a rare, rare non conference game

755
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 1: where you have an SEC opponent traveling in to play Temple.

756
00:36:28,440 --> 00:36:31,480
Speaker 1: The Sooners of Oklahoma lay in twenty four against Temple

757
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: here and this one is very simple to me. Oklahoma

758
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 1: is back defensively and they have a dynamic passing attack.

759
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 1: That Ben Arbuckle system is working with John Mattier at

760
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:43,759
Speaker 1: the controls. They are third in defensive success rate. Oklahoma

761
00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 1: are fire breathers on that side of the ball, and

762
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:50,360
Speaker 1: then offensively their twentieth in finishing drives. That's a recipe

763
00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:52,879
Speaker 1: to cover a big number. Speaking of big numbers, Action

764
00:36:52,960 --> 00:36:56,959
Speaker 1: Networks Internal Projections placed this one at Oklahoma laying thirty six.

765
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 1: My number is at thirty and a half. So though

766
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: this has letdown spot ridden all over it coming off

767
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 1: of that marquee win against Michigan, I am going based

768
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: on the fundamentals of what they've done on both sides

769
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 1: of the ball, the huge upgrade on offense with a

770
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 1: system with Arbuckle and venables in exact spots like this.

771
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 1: Let's look at him in paycheck games since he's taken

772
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 1: over as OU's head coach. In twenty twenty two against

773
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 1: UTEP forty five thirteen beat Kent thirty three to three

774
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 1: that year, Arkansas State in twenty twenty three beat him

775
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: seventy three to nothing, Tulsa sixty three to seventeen, and

776
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: then last year the same Temple team, they beat him

777
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: fifty one to three, and they beat Maine fifty nine

778
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 1: to fourteen. That's five and one against the spread in

779
00:37:37,560 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 1: non conference paycheck games where they're laying twenty four or more.

780
00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:42,480
Speaker 1: He won those games by an average of forty six

781
00:37:42,520 --> 00:37:44,359
Speaker 1: points per game. Give me the Sooners all the way

782
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: up to twenty eight. I think it's the play. Don't worry.

783
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:48,840
Speaker 1: There may be a sleepy start. Maybe you want to

784
00:37:48,880 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 1: hop in if they come up empty on that first

785
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:52,880
Speaker 1: possession and you get a little bit of value closer

786
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 1: to three touchdowns. But I think the Sooners, once they

787
00:37:55,680 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: lock into this game, they're going to run away with

788
00:37:58,080 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: this one. Why do you like the Als in this

789
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:00,359
Speaker 1: time war?

790
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:04,200
Speaker 4: I think we've seen Casey Keeler and his effect on

791
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 4: this program be very evident. With the offense playing with

792
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 4: confidence and the defense has been playing with attitude. They

793
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 4: made quick work of UMass Anna Howard easily. I'm not

794
00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:17,960
Speaker 4: gonna say that Temple has a real threat to win

795
00:38:18,040 --> 00:38:19,960
Speaker 4: this game, but I think that they can just do

796
00:38:20,200 --> 00:38:22,200
Speaker 4: enough to keep it within this number. This is a

797
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 4: massive sandwich spot for Oklahoma after the big wig win

798
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 4: against Michigan, and they've got Auburn on deck. I'll be

799
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 4: real interested to see kind of what sort of intensity

800
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 4: the Sooners come out with here and what they're focused on.

801
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,280
Speaker 4: Stadium will probably be half empty, it's a noon kickoff.

802
00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 4: It's just one of those tricky, sleepy spots.

803
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 1: You know.

804
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: We thought Temple was really gonna grind the pace down

805
00:38:44,239 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 4: this season, and they haven't operated extremely slowly and methodically yet.

806
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:51,720
Speaker 4: But I think we'll see them really trim and truncate

807
00:38:51,800 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 4: the possessions down here and operate very very slowly offensively.

808
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 4: I think they'll be able to ride Jade Ducker and

809
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 4: squeeze enough in the run game to stay on the field.

810
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 4: Evan Seinman has been very proficient passing the ball so

811
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 4: far this season, nine to zero touchdown to interception ratio,

812
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 4: and he's completing seventy seven percent of his passes. I

813
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,959
Speaker 4: think we'll be able to see him complete some short

814
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:20,200
Speaker 4: passes to the tight ends, move the chains, and at

815
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,480
Speaker 4: least keep possession of the ball enough to keep the

816
00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,759
Speaker 4: field position game from getting out a hand here. Defensively,

817
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 4: this Owl's bunch is allowing just three point eight yards

818
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:31,640
Speaker 4: per play. They've only allowed thirty two percent on third down.

819
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:34,960
Speaker 4: Can just see a little bit of a sleep walk here.

820
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 4: Maybe we look up in the second quarter and Temple's

821
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 4: only down three and then Oklahoma pulls away late.

822
00:39:40,520 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 2: Oklahoma will win this game.

823
00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:44,239
Speaker 4: But I think they have bigger fish to fry, and

824
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 4: I think Temple throws a little bit of a punch

825
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 4: here at home.

826
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 1: Bell do it for today's episode of the Group of

827
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: Five Deep Dive under the Big Bets on campus banner.

828
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, and don't forget to download the free,

829
00:39:54,120 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 1: award winning Action Network app and leave us a five

830
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: star rating interview. Wherever you listen to the pod, I'll

831
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,279
Speaker 1: pick out a five star and give that person a

832
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: free ten dollar future for anything happening in the twenty

833
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:06,800
Speaker 1: twenty five college football season. Remember if you'd like to

834
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:08,279
Speaker 1: tail some of the bets that we talked about in

835
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 1: today's episode, look for the quick slip link in the

836
00:40:10,719 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: episode description. You can also go to actionnetwork dot com

837
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,600
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838
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839
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,960
Speaker 1: to all of our college football content throughout the year.

840
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 1: Check out our guys Stucky on the Favorites every Tuesday, Thursday,

841
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 1: and Sunday. This is Maiden Voyage this week, so please

842
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 1: throw some support behind him. Thanks for listening to the

843
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:33,279
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus podcast, and as always, best of

844
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:53,720
Speaker 1: luck with all your bets. Action Network reminds you please

845
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:57,200
Speaker 1: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

846
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: a gambling problem, help is available twenty four seven at

847
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:01,880
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