WEBVTT - Irregular Naval Warfare And You (Houthi Edition) 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:10.320 All Zone Media. Welcome back to It Could Happen Here 0:00:10.600 --> 0:00:17.360 a podcast about things falling apart, and also about militant resistance, 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:20.920 which is an aspect of things falling apart. As things 0:00:21.000 --> 0:00:24.120 fall apart any country, you get people who crawl out 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:28.479 of the woodwork to either accelerate that process or try 0:00:28.480 --> 0:00:30.639 to reverse it in their own lives, and some of 0:00:30.680 --> 0:00:34.240 those people use weapons to do that. Now, we've talked 0:00:34.280 --> 0:00:36.800 a bunch on this show about the various forms that 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:42.239 militant resistance can take. We've chatted extensively on this network 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:45.680 about Rojava. We've talked a fair amount James Stout and I. 0:00:45.840 --> 0:00:48.360 James is on the show today, by the way, Hello James, 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:51.120 Hi Robert. We've talked a lot about me and mar 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:55.640 and the gin Z Revolution, there three D printing of 0:00:56.040 --> 0:01:00.440 firearms and kind of this war that these people have 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:05.280 been waging in the Jungles successfully in order to overthrow 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.760 the military dictatorship of their country. But we haven't talked 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:12.120 a whole lot about naval warfare. And this is because 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:14.720 for most of history, for most of at least our 0:01:14.760 --> 0:01:18.840 recent history, naval warfare was not really a thing insurgents 0:01:18.880 --> 0:01:21.440 could engage in, right you know, you could every now 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:23.000 and then, if a ship was docked or something, you 0:01:23.080 --> 0:01:24.520 might be able to get off a bombing, right, like 0:01:24.520 --> 0:01:27.800 what happened to us as coal. And I'm not expressing 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:32.679 general sympathy for everybody who does a militant insurgent act, 0:01:32.720 --> 0:01:34.480 but I am talking about like the overall kind of 0:01:34.520 --> 0:01:37.560 like tactics and strategy that underline how that stuff works. 0:01:37.800 --> 0:01:39.880 And one of the things that's really changed in the 0:01:39.959 --> 0:01:42.560 last couple of years, since twenty twenty two, you can 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:46.560 really mark it out, is that irregular non state groups 0:01:46.800 --> 0:01:50.400 can now to an extent never before possible, challenged the 0:01:50.520 --> 0:01:54.080 sea power of nations like the United States, which has 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:58.240 an unquestioned, previously at least unquestioned level of dominance in 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:01.560 sort of conventional naval power. And we talked about conventional 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:04.800 naval power in the twenty first century. That means aircraft 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:07.840 carrier groups. Right, the US has eleven of them, which, 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:09.560 if I'm not mistaken, is more than the rest of 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:12.320 the world. We have a lot of fucking aircraft carriers. 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:16.160 And previously that was believed to be you know, a 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:18.919 guarante of book dominance on sea. And if a carrier 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.760 group or two is in the area. You generally, we generally, 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:25.000 the United States generally could count on having air supremacy. 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.680 You certainly wouldn't expect it to be countered. You know, 0:02:28.760 --> 0:02:30.679 you could expect, like, for example, if we were to 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:34.400 have a conflict over Taiwan, the Chinese navy could or 0:02:34.440 --> 0:02:38.520 the Chinese army could potentially interdict a carrier group using 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:41.880 ground based you know, ground to see anti ship missiles 0:02:41.919 --> 0:02:44.280 or something like that. But we're increasingly in an era 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.360 in which these kind of irregular non state groups have 0:02:47.480 --> 0:02:50.280 access to similar technology and have access to kind of 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:54.560 even more bespoke technology like drone swarms that poses a 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:57.840 unique threat to the naval dominance of the United States. 0:02:57.919 --> 0:02:59.919 And I wanted to start, you know, we've got a 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:01.760 two part of here. We're going to be talking about 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:04.280 the Huthi's in Yemen. We're going to be talking about 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:07.200 the Ukrainian navy, which does not really have much in 0:03:07.240 --> 0:03:10.040 the way of boats, but is still challenging the Russian navy. 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:13.240 And we're going to be talking about rebels in Myanmar. 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:15.880 We're going to start today, we'll be talking about the 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.240 Huthi and to understand Huthi resistance to the United States 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:22.200 and why a militant group has had such success challenging 0:03:22.320 --> 0:03:25.400 US naval power. You first have to understand how they 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:27.440 got to the point that they're at right now, where 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:28.960 they are kind of, in a lot of ways a 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:32.800 near state actor, you know, not a world power actor, 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.640 but near state actor. You know, they're probably more capable 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:38.040 in some ways than the State of Yemen, which they 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:41.200 are at war with. Yeah, yeah, And to get how 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:43.160 they got to that point, you have to understand what 0:03:43.280 --> 0:03:47.080 happened with their fight against the Saudis. So, the Huthi 0:03:47.160 --> 0:03:50.680 Movement or ansar Allah, which means Supporters of God, is 0:03:50.680 --> 0:03:54.160 a Zaidi Shia Islamist movement run primarily by members of 0:03:54.200 --> 0:03:57.440 the Huthi tribe. Zadi Islam is a bit of an 0:03:57.520 --> 0:03:59.600 odd duck. You'll hear it described as, yeah, like a 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:03.800 sh a Shia segment. It's really probably more accurate to 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.280 look at it as like it's kind of in between 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:10.200 Shia and Sunni of like the Shia kind of denominations, 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:13.320 it's kind of closest to being Sunni. I'm not an 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:15.280 expert on any of this, but it comes out of 0:04:15.320 --> 0:04:18.159 a guy named Zaid Iban Ali's rebellion against the Umi 0:04:18.240 --> 0:04:21.160 Yad caliphate, which did not succeed, but we still have 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:24.760 the Zadi. What matters for our purposes today is that 0:04:24.880 --> 0:04:28.159 the Huthi as a movement came out of opposition to 0:04:28.240 --> 0:04:33.320 the Yemen's president Abi Abdullah Salah, who was corrupt as hell. 0:04:33.600 --> 0:04:35.320 He was seen as corrupt, and he was in fact 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:38.479 corrupt as hell, and it was specifically they were accusing 0:04:38.520 --> 0:04:41.400 him of basically being bribed by the Saudis. That's where 0:04:41.720 --> 0:04:43.960 like the Huthi started the rebellion in around two thousand 0:04:43.960 --> 0:04:46.919 and three. So they began as a resistance movement to 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:50.680 this corrupt president Salah. They adopted the slogan God is 0:04:50.680 --> 0:04:53.760 the greatest, death to America, death to Israel, and a 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:56.719 curse upon the Jews, which is still their slogan. So 0:04:56.720 --> 0:05:01.640 they are not what you would call unproblematic again, but 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:05.400 now that they are fighting out there, they're not hiding it, 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:07.120 you know, dig for this stuff. 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:10.440 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, and I using the triple parentheses 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:12.000 they say the thing. 0:05:12.320 --> 0:05:14.360 Yeah, and it's you know, part of why we're talking 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:16.880 about a regular naval warfare is that who knows what 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:20.720 the next few years are going to include it's always 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.000 a long shot, but there's not a zero percent chance 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:25.760 that people listening to this will wind up engaged in 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:29.520 some sort of irregular conflict. And that's it's important to 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:33.320 understand how modern technology has changed the dimensions of how 0:05:33.320 --> 0:05:35.440 that works from like a naval perspective. So that's why 0:05:35.440 --> 0:05:39.359 we're talking about this now. Who they armed activities against 0:05:39.360 --> 0:05:42.920 the Saudis really kicked off and hit a major level 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:46.599 after the mini civil war, which officially started in twenty fourteen. 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:49.720 The new president of Yemen, who was not Salah at 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:52.960 this point, asked for military support from the international community, 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.159 which in this case meant the Saudis right. So the Saudis. 0:05:56.839 --> 0:05:59.760 It's called a coalition. There's technically some other people involved, 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:02.960 but it's the Saudis right. And the president of Yemen 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.599 calls in the Saudis when his forces are kicked out 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.320 of the capital of Yemen, Sana by hoothy fighters. By 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.680 the way, when the Houthi take sna Is, when they 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.880 get their first cruise missiles, largely just like a bunch 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:17.640 of scuds and stuff, so like old Soviet shit, right. 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:21.919 Operation Decisive Storm is the name that Saudi Arabia gives 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:24.159 to their intervention in Yemen, and a lot of people 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:27.640 will say this is basically Saudi Arabia's Vietnam, not an 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:31.479 inappropriate comparison to make. So the Saudis start bombing the 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:33.800 shit out of the Huthi and then they send in 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.360 ground forces, because bombing the shit out of people who 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.280 are motivated never really works as well as you want 0:06:39.279 --> 0:06:39.600 it to. 0:06:39.839 --> 0:06:41.800 Right, Yeah, a lot of people have been bombing a 0:06:41.800 --> 0:06:44.600 lot of people. I mean, you can destroy a lot 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.120 of shit, you can kill a load of civilians, and 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:51.280 kill a shitload of civilians. Yeah, but many, many such cases. 0:06:51.480 --> 0:06:53.799 If you're if you're looking around the world right now. 0:06:54.040 --> 0:06:56.400 But yeah, one thing that doesn't tend to do is 0:06:56.400 --> 0:06:58.279 really get rid of motivated fighters. 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:01.640 Yeah, when you've got an air force, everything looks like dressden. 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:04.400 So the Saudis try that for a while. They send 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.960 them ground forces, they carry out naval blockades. None of 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:10.520 this does much but make the Houthies more determined, and 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:13.160 they exit this conflict. I mean they're not it's not 0:07:13.240 --> 0:07:15.920 like you wouldn't say completely done, but they exit this 0:07:16.040 --> 0:07:18.600 conflict with the Saudis a lot stronger, right, a lot 0:07:18.640 --> 0:07:21.640 more organized, with a lot better weapons, right, and a 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:23.360 lot of this, you know. So by the way, I 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:25.240 should also state that, like now, the Houthies are on 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:28.800 the side of former President Sala. It's a complicated conflict, right, 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:30.560 but at the end of this all they have a 0:07:30.640 --> 0:07:34.880 shitload of Iranian weapons because Iran is a geopolitical enemy 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:37.760 of Saudi Arabia and they see the Houthis as allies, 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:39.920 and so they spend a lot of time this during 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:43.480 this conflict shipping in agtms, which are wire guided missiles 0:07:43.640 --> 0:07:47.000 that are just aces and blasting holes in Saudi Arabia's tanks, 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:50.240 which are US supplied, if I'm not mistaken as a general. 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:52.840 Yeah, a lot of Saudi Arabia stuff is US and like, yeah, 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.240 base most of it, right, much of it. Yeah, Yeah, 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:56.840 there are a lot of contractors over there. 0:07:57.000 --> 0:07:59.440 Yeah. And you know, the Houthis they make a lot 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:02.600 in like waves and kind of people who are following 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:05.200 a regular conflicts during this period in the late aughts 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:08.320 because they're so successful and taking out these tanks that 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.200 had previously been pretty hard to fuck up, and it's 0:08:11.280 --> 0:08:14.280 kind of you know, now, agtms in Ukraine are like 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:16.520 one of the dominant weapons systems that has shaped the 0:08:16.520 --> 0:08:18.840 battlefield environment. But this is kind of when people start 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:22.120 to realize, oh, fuck, you know Syria as well, this 0:08:22.240 --> 0:08:24.520 is really going to change a lot about how armor 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.720 gets used. And this is also where we start to 0:08:26.720 --> 0:08:30.800 see the first Hothi deployments of ballistic missiles, which were 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:34.240 used sort of they initially use them, not dissimilarly to 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:38.520 how the Germans used V two's right in World War Two. 0:08:38.760 --> 0:08:41.840 There are terror weapons and they're used in retaliation for 0:08:41.920 --> 0:08:44.800 Saudi Arabia's use of a terror weapon, which is US 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:47.640 jets and missiles. Right, So Saudi Arabia is terror bombing Yemen, 0:08:47.880 --> 0:08:51.440 and Yemen starts firing missiles back at Saudi Arabia because 0:08:51.640 --> 0:08:54.920 you know that's what you do, right, yeah, yeah, yeah. 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:56.559 And I'm going to quote here from an article in 0:08:56.600 --> 0:09:00.360 the National News, quote Huthi militias and Yemen launched and 0:09:00.360 --> 0:09:02.439 this is from twenty twenty two, who the militia's and 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:05.360 Yemen launched ballistic missiles at Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.000 on Monday and the latest attack on neighboring states. Two 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:10.800 missiles were destroyed in midflight during the attempted terrorist attack 0:09:10.800 --> 0:09:13.320 on Abu Dhabi, while in Saudi Arabia one was shot 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.480 down and another missile wounded two civilians in an industrial area. 0:09:16.800 --> 0:09:19.240 So that gives you an idea of like where they 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:21.160 are a couple of years ago. And these are not 0:09:21.559 --> 0:09:24.560 super advanced cruise missiles, as you can see by that 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:27.760 kind of like casualty rate. Right, they're not doing massive 0:09:27.760 --> 0:09:29.760 amounts of damage, but they caused terror. 0:09:29.840 --> 0:09:30.000 Right. 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:31.960 It's scary to know that a missile could come out 0:09:32.000 --> 0:09:34.080 of the sky and kill some of you, and it's 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:36.480 you know, from their perspective, how else are they going 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.199 to strike back. They don't have an air force in 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:40.760 the conventional sense, but what we do see here is 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:43.520 by being able to carry out these attacks back on 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:46.240 Saudi Arabia who's bombing them, despite not having an air 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:50.280 force of their own. You already see how new technology 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.880 and cruise missiles aren't new technology, but them being available 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.800 to a non state actor is fairly new. You see 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:00.640 how that has already changed the game in terms of 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.160 like you can't really say the Saudis don't have the 0:10:03.640 --> 0:10:06.640 air supremacy. You can still say they have air supremacy 0:10:06.679 --> 0:10:09.199 because again, the Houthies don't have much in the way 0:10:09.200 --> 0:10:13.760 of airpower at this point, but they can't stop missiles 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:16.480 from hitting their cities entirely, which is a different game 0:10:16.679 --> 0:10:19.360 than when you know that's not really a possibility. The 0:10:19.440 --> 0:10:24.040 Houthi arsenal today includes a dizzying array of different Iranian, Soviet, Syrian, 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:28.800 and indigenously produced rockets, including the Burkhan three missiles. These 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:31.439 are for long range strikes up to twelve hundred kilometers, 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:34.200 and the Botter P one rockets, which have one hundred 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:36.920 and twenty two one hundred and sixty kilometer range. They 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.599 also have old Soviet Frog sevens which are useful to 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:43.400 about sixty five kilometers. None of these are accurate in 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.520 cruise missile terms, you know, but they work well enough 0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:50.440 for the Houthis' purposes. The Botter Pa is indigenously produced. 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:52.760 It's made by the Houthies. It's thought to be based 0:10:52.800 --> 0:10:56.760 on the Syrian Kaibar rocket. It is unguided, and experts 0:10:56.800 --> 0:10:59.640 will say it's closer to being functioning as just like 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:04.000 artillery than an actual cruise missile. U and inspectors claim 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.280 quote it is produced locally from steel tubing, very likely 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:10.240 sourced from the oil industry. You hear this a lot 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:12.560 in a regular conflict in the Middle East. When I 0:11:12.640 --> 0:11:16.280 was in Mosel covering the fighting with Isis, their mortars 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:18.400 were made off out of tubing that was like part 0:11:18.440 --> 0:11:20.720 of construction projects. I think that traced back to the 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:23.240 oil industry, at least some of it. Now. There are 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:26.000 several variants of this rocket, like the Botter F and 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.319 the P one. It's not really useful going through all 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.439 of them. You can find some interesting studies on this, 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:35.120 but it's not necessary to understand their capabilities. Their most 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:37.040 accurate missile, as far as I can tell, is the 0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:40.680 OTR twenty one Totchka, which has a range of about 0:11:40.720 --> 0:11:43.000 seventy two one hundred and twenty kilometers and a four 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:46.400 hundred and eighty kilogram payload. They only are believed to 0:11:46.480 --> 0:11:48.600 have a few dozen of these, although that's an estimate 0:11:48.600 --> 0:11:51.040 from an earlier report, and these were the ones they 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:53.960 would use most regularly on ground targets during the Saudi 0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.160 intervention when they needed a precise strike. And I'm going 0:11:56.200 --> 0:11:58.520 to quote from an article and an analysis of their 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:02.240 missile capability. The Houthis first fired a Tachka missile in 0:12:02.240 --> 0:12:06.319 September twenty fifteen, targeting the coalitions, that's the Saudi's Soffa 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:09.160 military base in Marib, Yemen. The strike hit a weapons 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.720 storage depot and killed sixty coalition soldiers. The Houthis fired 0:12:12.720 --> 0:12:16.040 another Toatchka on December fourteenth, twenty fifteen, targeting a coalition 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:19.240 base south of Taia's City in Taia's Yemen. The strike 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:22.320 reportedly killed over one hundred and twenty coalition soldiers. The 0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:25.280 most recently recorded tachka fire took place on November nineteenth, 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:28.800 twenty sixteen, landing in a desert in eastern Marab Province. 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.640 The target was unclear, but was likely the Arab Coalition's 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:35.360 all weak military camp. So those are significant casualties. These 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:38.000 are very effective weapons that do a lot of damage. 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:52.840 Right Yeah, Now, international experts, and especially if you read 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:55.480 just kind of like think tank analysis of what the 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.120 Houthis are doing, we generally say all of this is 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:02.319 only possible because of aid from his Belah and Iran. Right, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.520 That's the only reason the Hoothies have these weapons. Right now, 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:08.000 there is an arms embargo on Yemen. This has not 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.640 stopped anyone from getting weapons to Yemen. It also, to 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.640 be very fair here, didn't stop anyone from didn't stop 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:16.640 us from selling arms to the Saudis even though they're 0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:23.439 bringing those arms to Yemen. Right, yeah, yeah, it possible, Yeah, don't. 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.000 I don't know who you want to get angry or 0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:28.120 at here. I'm not really convinced either side is you know, 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:31.400 better than the other. Certainly the Saudis are not better, 0:13:31.559 --> 0:13:34.960 right right? Yeah that matters. I don't know. 0:13:35.040 --> 0:13:37.559 Yeah, yeah, it's just a shit situation for people who 0:13:37.559 --> 0:13:39.960 are trying to get home with me to not get 0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:40.480 blown up. 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:45.160 Yes, yeah, really bad situation. I think that is over 0:13:45.280 --> 0:13:48.760 selling it a bit. Obviously, Iranian aid is critical to 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:50.760 the Hoothies and that that has gotten them a lot 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:53.120 of their advanced weapons systems, so I don't want to 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:56.360 undersell it. But at this point, they are making a 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.800 significant chunk of these of these cruise missiles, specifically some 0:13:59.840 --> 0:14:04.040 of the less advanced ones, indigenously, So because of the 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.360 state things you could, I think it is accurate to 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:09.040 say that Iran was crucial to them getting to that state. 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.000 But even without Iranian aid, there's a there's a signet 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.080 probably a significant degree of time to which they could 0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:16.400 continue to produce some of these weapons because they are 0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:17.679 making them themselves. 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.560 Yeah, they make three fifty eight missiles, right, like Lloyd 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.640 terrain anti aircraft. Yeah. Yes, even if Iran is not supplying, 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:28.600 it's probably worth noting that like this is like an 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:33.120 Iranian design or concept at least, and it allows for 0:14:33.120 --> 0:14:36.440 a lot of testing, a lot of like real world 0:14:36.760 --> 0:14:39.440 kind of verses the NATO US. 0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:43.440 Let's the Iranians. Yeah, test their weaponry. And again I'm 0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:46.360 not trying to undersell how important they are, just you 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:47.720 get a lot of like, well, if we can just 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:51.040 cut off Iranian trade, the hoothies will collapse, and they 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.760 think that's accurate anymore. Yeah, maybe, you know, I can't 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.920 say that to a point a certainty, but yeah, I 0:14:56.960 --> 0:14:59.240 think that that's kind of wishful thinking on behalf of 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:01.880 some people. So these are great weapons for a non 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:04.480 state militant group. Again, this is this stuff. If you 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.360 think back ten fifteen years, the idea of a non 0:15:07.440 --> 0:15:11.280 state insurgent group having access to a cruise missile library 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:13.680 like this, you know, not to say about like the 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:15.560 other weapons they have, the drones and stuff they have, 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:18.560 It would have been kind of unprecedented. That said, these 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.360 are not good weapons in the modern military sense of 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:23.560 the word. Bosh. I mean, they are not very accurate 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:26.400 for the most part, and compared to more advanced missiles 0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:28.920 like the kind of the United States, Russia and China have, 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.720 they are easy to shoot down with the kind of 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:36.040 weapons systems aboard say, US aircraft carriers. We will discuss 0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.440 that more later. This is largely inconsequential to what's been 0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:41.720 happening in the Red Sea because the vast majority of 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:44.720 naval traffic that passes by Huthi territory does not have 0:15:44.800 --> 0:15:50.080 access to say FAYLANKX, FELANX systems. Yeah, you don't have 0:15:50.160 --> 0:15:52.120 much in the way of anti missile systems on a 0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:53.000 normal containers. 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:58.520 Yeah, no, you have fanti bridge antiah rhyming devices. But like, yeah, 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:00.880 it doesn't matter if your missile's not super accurate, if 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.720 it can't defeat these expensive systems, if you're just eating 0:16:03.800 --> 0:16:06.760 them into a narrow channel or anything that goes past. 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:09.480 Right right right, Yeah, And the Houthis are aware of that, 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:12.320 and this is again an intelligent strategy on their part. 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:14.360 You know, sometimes people get angry when you say that 0:16:14.400 --> 0:16:17.000 because they point out horrible things the Hoothies have done, 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:18.400 which I don't want to deny it but we're not 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:20.800 talking about the overall morality of this conflict. We're talking 0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:22.600 about how these tactics work, right. 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.720 Right, Like the Nazis had intelligent and strategies as well. 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:27.840 They were terrible fucking people and I'm glad they lost 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.680 them are mostly dead, but like, yeah, yeah, we would 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:33.000 be unwise to just dismiss everything that they've been No. 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.360 No, And likewise, the fact that the Houthi's right now 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.520 that this interdiction of the Red Sea is based on 0:16:38.560 --> 0:16:41.200 an attempt to stop the genocide in Gaza, which I 0:16:41.240 --> 0:16:44.200 don't think it's going to work, but I would like 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:47.400 it if somehow it did. That also does not have 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.040 an impact on how this is working strategically, right, you 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.200 are kind of setting all of that aside to just 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:56.080 talk about how this is functioning, you know. Yeah, So 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:59.000 in recent years, the Houthis have expanded their stock of 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:02.240 anti ship missile. In an article for the International Institute 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:05.720 for Strategic Studies, a guy named Fabian hens Rights quote 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:08.920 the parades these are Huthi military parades also featured a 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:12.679 variety of anti ship ballistic missiles ASBMs and guided rockets 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.640 employing Iranian infrared or imaging infrared seeker technology. The four 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.399 hundred and fifty kilometer range SEF appears to be a 0:17:19.440 --> 0:17:22.960 rebranded ASBM version of Iran's FATA three one three missile, 0:17:23.200 --> 0:17:26.160 while the Tongue Kill represents a previously unseen anti ship 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:31.040 version of the IRGC Iranian Revolutionary Guardcore developed five hundred 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.840 kilometer range SO higher. The two designs constitute the heaviest 0:17:34.880 --> 0:17:37.320 hoothy anti ship missiles, both with warheads of more than 0:17:37.359 --> 0:17:41.520 three hundred kilograms and are of Iranian origin. Three smaller ASBMs. 0:17:41.520 --> 0:17:44.119 The one hundred and forty kilometer range Fhlek, the Mayun 0:17:44.240 --> 0:17:48.000 and the bar al Amar strongly resemble Iranian design philosophy 0:17:48.000 --> 0:17:51.960 and seeker technology, but do not precisely match known Iranian systems. 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.560 They could either be Iranian systems not observed before in 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:57.800 smuggle to Yemen, or Huthy produced rockets combined using Iranian 0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:01.200 guidance skits, not unlike developments made by another Iran proxy, 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:04.159 the Lebanese has Belah and its position guided surface to 0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:07.640 surface missile program. Finally, the Huthis have presented an S 0:18:07.640 --> 0:18:10.560 seventy five s A two surface to air missile, likely 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:13.439 from pre war Yemeny Army stocks modified for an anti 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.760 ship role using an Iranian guidance kit. So that's a 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:20.240 that's that's a potent and it's probably more some ways 0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.560 more advanced than their general cruise missile stockpile arsenal for 0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:26.480 taking out ships. Now, the Huthis are still a non 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:29.560 state force, and when people say online that like the 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:33.040 US is fighting Yemen, not quite accurate, because the Huthis 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.439 are fighting Yemen too, right, like the government if you're 0:18:35.480 --> 0:18:37.720 if you're saying the government, you're talking about the people, Well, 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:40.400 people in Yemen are fighting each other, right, yeah, it's 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:42.919 it's that is the situation. They are at war with 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:45.280 the government of Yemen. Right, that is still the right case. 0:18:45.359 --> 0:18:48.480 We're fighting, we're shooting missiles at Yemen, but yet like 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:50.920 as a geographical area right in the state. 0:18:51.440 --> 0:18:54.960 Yeah, yeah, exactly. So the Huthis did not survive years 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:57.639 of intense bombing by Saudi Arabia and a nation with 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.440 an on paper extremely modern military. By I'm making a 0:19:00.480 --> 0:19:03.040 lot of stupid mistakes. So when they decided to attack 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:05.760 shipping in the Red Sea after Israel launched their genocidal 0:19:05.800 --> 0:19:08.960 campaign against Gaza, they did so with a competent plan, 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:11.600 which was to make civilian freight travel in the area 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:15.159 too dangerous to continue. Their stated goal here is to 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:18.480 force damage on Israel and the Western nations who support 0:19:18.480 --> 0:19:21.120 it by hitting the only thing they care about, commerce, 0:19:21.520 --> 0:19:24.920 and their actions here have done real damage to international trade, 0:19:25.320 --> 0:19:30.120 not exclusively Western international trade. I should note the latest 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.800 several months have seen them capture or sink a couple 0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:36.160 of merchant vessels. They've sunk one. They've hit at least 0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.800 sixteen vessels with drones and missiles. I found a Bloomberg 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.679 report with the telling title Houthy missiles do far more 0:19:42.760 --> 0:19:45.439 damage to trade than to actual ships, which is an 0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:48.960 interesting way to frame it. Yeah, and they're kind of 0:19:48.960 --> 0:19:52.120 trying to minimize what's going on here. While sixteen strikes 0:19:52.200 --> 0:19:54.280 is a large number for the industry to withstand, there 0:19:54.320 --> 0:19:56.760 have been even more failed attempts. Since the Houthies began 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:58.840 their attacks, there have been more than sixty incidents of 0:19:58.880 --> 0:20:01.359 some kind in and around the world way, including everything 0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.360 from near misses to hijackings and harassment by armed militants 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:06.440 and small boats. If you look at the damage that's 0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:09.000 occurred in most of these incidents, it has not been significant, 0:20:09.040 --> 0:20:11.520 says said Marcus Baker, head of the Marine and Cargo 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:14.600 at Marsh, one of the world's top insurance brokers. So far, 0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:17.119 we haven't seen a total loss caused by a missile strike. 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:20.600 That changed in March when the Houthi successfully sank the 0:20:20.680 --> 0:20:23.359 Ruby Mar despite more than a month of US strikes 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:26.679