WEBVTT - Oil Dives as Trump Backs Off Iran Threats 

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<v Speaker 2>It's chicking with Mike mcglohan.

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<v Speaker 3>He's our commodity strategiest down there in Miami Beach.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, microsceine.

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<v Speaker 3>I guess predictable and we get a little ease and

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<v Speaker 3>attentions in the Middle East, and we see.

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<v Speaker 2>Oil pull back here? How much should to the extent?

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<v Speaker 3>And let's assume that President Trump does want to find

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<v Speaker 3>an off rampire and cease operations in Iran. Where do

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<v Speaker 3>you expect oil to go and over what time frame by.

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<v Speaker 4>The time we get to the midterms, Paul, I think

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<v Speaker 4>that front crudial contract will be closer to fifty than

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred. Right now, it's seventy three dollars a barrow.

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<v Speaker 4>That's the December contract. So on futures and come on.

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<v Speaker 4>So like to say we're going where the pucks skating?

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<v Speaker 4>Where the pucks going, Well, that's where it's going. The

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<v Speaker 4>high was seventy eight, so the front contract was unable

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<v Speaker 4>to get above one hundred, and now it's taking down.

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<v Speaker 5>But we have good reasons.

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<v Speaker 4>So I think that high we put in this year

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<v Speaker 4>around one to twenty is going to last for years,

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<v Speaker 4>very similar one to thirty in twenty twenty two and

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<v Speaker 4>one forty seven in two thousand and eight.

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<v Speaker 5>And the key question is now we have the bottom

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<v Speaker 5>line is we have.

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<v Speaker 4>The leader of the world's most significant energy producer net

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<v Speaker 4>exporter of crudel natural gas who wants prices lower, and

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<v Speaker 4>there's election in November.

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<v Speaker 5>So to me, that's where it's going.

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<v Speaker 6>So you see it all lining up. How long does

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<v Speaker 6>it take before we see prices at the pump? How

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<v Speaker 6>diesel prices propean prices start to fall in tandem?

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<v Speaker 5>Scarlett, I'm glad you went there.

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<v Speaker 4>So we got to four or three ninety six or

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<v Speaker 4>so in the average gallon of gasoline country, I think

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<v Speaker 4>that's the peak, right around a four diesel, right around

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<v Speaker 4>five dollars and thirty cents.

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<v Speaker 5>I think that's probably the peak.

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<v Speaker 4>How much lower they go, good example, we've never gone

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<v Speaker 4>this high, and gasoline typically drops around two dollars a gallon.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's going to happen. There's one key theme.

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<v Speaker 4>There's a key point this morning, our morning meeting, Chris Kane,

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<v Speaker 4>our equity strategies pointed one thing that's happening, and thats

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<v Speaker 4>CB five hundred drop below its two hundred day movement average.

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<v Speaker 5>But volatily is still too low.

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<v Speaker 4>So what I think is, once we have volatily coming

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<v Speaker 4>from the energy market and the gold market tricking over

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<v Speaker 4>the stock market, that's part of your pressure to make

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<v Speaker 4>all these prices go lower and potentially have crude aill

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<v Speaker 4>go back to the level I've been looking for forever,

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<v Speaker 4>which is forty.

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<v Speaker 5>Dollars a barrel.

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<v Speaker 4>That's been the bottom for three times since two thousand

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<v Speaker 4>and eight.

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<v Speaker 3>So, Mike, there are reports that there has been as

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<v Speaker 3>a result of the war and attacks by Israel Iran,

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<v Speaker 3>some damage to some of the infrastructure in the Gulf

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<v Speaker 3>region here, does that argue for maybe a little bit

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<v Speaker 3>higher than the normal levels given there might be a

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<v Speaker 3>supply constraint for a number of years.

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<v Speaker 4>Paul, that's part of that global recession that's really help

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<v Speaker 4>hurting the rest of the world.

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<v Speaker 5>World.

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<v Speaker 4>The US is a net exporter of crude o, natural gas,

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<v Speaker 4>corn soybeans and wheat, and the key theme.

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<v Speaker 5>There is probably natural gas.

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<v Speaker 4>For the rest of the world, most knownly Europe, that's

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<v Speaker 4>a problem a lot of that Qatar natural gas cut

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<v Speaker 4>out might take years to bring that back on. But

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<v Speaker 4>in the US it means a glowing glutt will have

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<v Speaker 4>to export, so that's why it's really significant. But this

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<v Speaker 4>to me is part of that trigger for that global

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<v Speaker 4>recession that we already are heading to, potentially hard because

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<v Speaker 4>they're all fighting tariffs. So now it's about as long

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<v Speaker 4>as the US can repress the ability for a RAN

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<v Speaker 4>to have an offensive capabilities to close the straight, which

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<v Speaker 4>we're kind of getting. Their goal's already figured that out,

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<v Speaker 4>then this is probably a peak we're going to see

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<v Speaker 4>for years.

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<v Speaker 5>And Crewdill this year.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm glad you bring up gold. I wanted to go

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<v Speaker 6>there next because we've seen gold parrots' losses. It's now

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<v Speaker 6>down only two point one percent, but it's still a

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<v Speaker 6>long way off from the peaks that it made at

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<v Speaker 6>the start of this year when it hit a closing

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<v Speaker 6>high fifty three fifty four. Has that bull run ended?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, is that the top here?

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<v Speaker 7>I out of blame.

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<v Speaker 5>I think that bull runs over Scarlett.

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<v Speaker 4>It's very similarly Inklings to nineteen eighty and the peak

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<v Speaker 4>of twenty eleven.

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<v Speaker 5>As far as a high velocity.

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<v Speaker 4>Gold was the most expensive ever versus the Bloomberg Commodity

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<v Speaker 4>Index at the end of February and the highest and

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<v Speaker 4>almost fifty years versus sixty month moving average. So it

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<v Speaker 4>is a tremendous front runner indicator for what's happened. It

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<v Speaker 4>bought the rumor, now sign the fact, and now it's

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<v Speaker 4>just way too expensive. Same and silver, and typically when

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<v Speaker 4>you put in highs like this, you do at this

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<v Speaker 4>kind of velocity, they last for years.

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<v Speaker 5>So I think it's going to languish. Thank you very much.

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<v Speaker 5>Has been a great bull market and it's done.

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<v Speaker 6>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto

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<v Speaker 1>with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you

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<v Speaker 1>get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 2>Here's the big take story.

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<v Speaker 5>I like it.

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<v Speaker 3>Tim Cook doesn't want to talk about retirement yet. John

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<v Speaker 3>Turnas is emerging as his most likely successor.

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<v Speaker 2>Who's to blame for that. That's Mark Dermott.

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<v Speaker 3>He's a managing entner for a global consumer tech He's

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<v Speaker 3>in Los Angeles, and that's the big take story.

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<v Speaker 2>Higgs. You know, we talk about Apple, you don't really talk.

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<v Speaker 3>About succession for mister Kim Cook, but he is sixty five,

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<v Speaker 3>and I guess you have to think about it.

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<v Speaker 6>Yeah, And I mean he's a consummate planner, so you

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<v Speaker 6>know that something's in the works there, yep.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think a lot of investors kind of looked

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<v Speaker 3>at the Disney situation and said, Bolly, I hope we

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<v Speaker 3>can do a better job in succession than they did

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<v Speaker 3>at Disney. So we'll see how this plays that. But

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<v Speaker 3>Mark Dermot, he is the man on the Apple story. Mark,

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<v Speaker 3>thanks so much for joining us here. I was just

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<v Speaker 3>mentioning miss Scarlett. We don't really talk about succession at

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<v Speaker 3>Apple too.

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<v Speaker 2>Often, but maybe we should. What's your story today?

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<v Speaker 5>You know?

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<v Speaker 8>I think, actually, I know you were just talking about Disney.

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<v Speaker 8>I think the Disney situation has actually made it a

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<v Speaker 8>bigger level of importance within Apple's executive team and within

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<v Speaker 8>the board there. They don't want a repeat of what happened,

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<v Speaker 8>and clearly they picked the wrong guy a few years ago,

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<v Speaker 8>and it seems like they got it right this time

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<v Speaker 8>with Josh Tomorrow and Dana Walden, and I think Apple

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<v Speaker 8>wants to get it right on its first try for

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<v Speaker 8>succeeding Tim Cook. Now, remember this is an interesting succession

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<v Speaker 8>because this is going to be the first planned CEO

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<v Speaker 8>transition in Apple's modern history, certainly post nineteen ninety seven

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<v Speaker 8>brink of bankruptcy Apple.

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<v Speaker 5>Remember Steve Jobs stepped.

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<v Speaker 8>Down prematurely due to health reasons unfortunately before passing away,

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<v Speaker 8>and Tim Cook was the COO at the time, so

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<v Speaker 8>Jobs appointed him as CEO, and Cook has done a

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<v Speaker 8>remarkable job over the last fifteen years. But this is

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<v Speaker 8>really going to be the beginning of a new era,

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<v Speaker 8>a real transition for the company. John Turnis, the senior

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<v Speaker 8>VP of Hardware Engineering, is at the center of the action.

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<v Speaker 8>He's about fifteen years younger than Cook, ten to fifteen

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<v Speaker 8>years younger than the rest of the other options on

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<v Speaker 8>Apple's executive teams charge of devices engineering, so eighty percent

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<v Speaker 8>of the revenue. The company brings in a brilliant mastermind engineer,

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<v Speaker 8>someone who's deeply ingrained in the Apple culture. And I

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<v Speaker 8>think as young as he is. This would be a

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<v Speaker 8>continuity pick for Apple.

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<v Speaker 6>A continuity pick. Is he someone that investors are familiar with.

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<v Speaker 6>Have they gotten enough exposure to him? Do they know

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<v Speaker 6>what he's like and feel that they can trust that

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<v Speaker 6>he can steer this company into the next century.

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<v Speaker 8>Well if they read my yeah, Well, if they read

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<v Speaker 8>my article today, they'll learn a lot about him and

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<v Speaker 8>perhaps become comfortable with the idea of a John Turnas

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<v Speaker 8>as CEO. They've been pushing him to the forefront in events.

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<v Speaker 8>The MacBook Neo that was introduced in early March March fourth,

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<v Speaker 8>it was Turnus who did the introduction of that, and

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<v Speaker 8>it was Turnus who went on Good Morning America to

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<v Speaker 8>talk about the launch of the MacBook Neo as well.

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<v Speaker 8>Obviously those are things that you would typically see Tim

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<v Speaker 8>Cook do himself. But obviously that Torch was past the

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<v Speaker 8>Turnus for major products introductions.

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<v Speaker 6>So in terms of John Turnis, what is his special distinction?

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<v Speaker 6>I mean, Steve Jobs was, you know, the head designer

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<v Speaker 6>in many ways, he kind of was the innovation guru

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<v Speaker 6>for Apple. Could see around corners in terms of figuring

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<v Speaker 6>out what people needed before they did. And Tim Cook

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<v Speaker 6>was a supply chain genius. That was his forte. What

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<v Speaker 6>does John Turns bring to the table, That is really

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<v Speaker 6>his distinction.

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<v Speaker 8>He's an engineering expert, right, he knows how to build

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<v Speaker 8>these products. He's the one who takes these products from

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<v Speaker 8>concept to manufacturing.

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<v Speaker 5>Right.

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<v Speaker 8>So this is someone who is really in charge of

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<v Speaker 8>the products. And if Apple's going to remain a hardware

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<v Speaker 8>centric company, a product centric company, he's the person to

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<v Speaker 8>take them into the next fifteen twenty years. If this

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<v Speaker 8>is going to turn into an AI company, a software company,

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<v Speaker 8>services company, certainly not the right pick. So it really

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<v Speaker 8>comes down to what Apple's board sees as the future

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<v Speaker 8>of the company, and I would bet that they continue

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<v Speaker 8>to see hardware as the very center of the action there.

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<v Speaker 2>Hey, Mark, When I think of Tim Cook, I think is.

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<v Speaker 3>Almost as much as a statesman as he is a

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<v Speaker 3>corporate CEO. A statesman in terms of dealing with maybe

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<v Speaker 3>the US administration as well as international partners, most notably China.

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<v Speaker 2>What do we know about mister Turnas in that regard, We.

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<v Speaker 5>Don't know much.

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<v Speaker 8>He does lots of meetings with regulators and some government

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<v Speaker 8>officials around the world. But I mean, I guess you're

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<v Speaker 8>asking about Trump that relationship is managed by one person

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<v Speaker 8>and one person only, and that's Tim Cook. There's some

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<v Speaker 8>government affairs folks involved with the Trump relationship, but this

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<v Speaker 8>is really a president to CEO relationship. And don't forget,

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<v Speaker 8>you know, Donald Trump is going to be President of

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<v Speaker 8>the United States until early twenty twenty nine, so we've got,

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<v Speaker 8>you know, several years left of that three years left

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<v Speaker 8>of that administration. And even if Tim Cook is no

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<v Speaker 8>longer CEO while Trump is in office, Cook is still

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<v Speaker 8>going to be managing that relationship.

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<v Speaker 5>Now.

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<v Speaker 8>I don't anticipate that Cook will be out before Trump

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<v Speaker 8>per se, but I do believe Cook will be part

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<v Speaker 8>of Apple, I would say for the next ten to

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<v Speaker 8>twelve years, even if that doesn't mean he's CEO. I

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<v Speaker 8>fully expect him to remain part of Apple as executive

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<v Speaker 8>chairman or some sort of president role, even post CEO tenure,

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<v Speaker 8>where he would be operating in that sort of government

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<v Speaker 8>official capacity.

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<v Speaker 6>Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:47.720
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android

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<v Speaker 1>Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand. Wherever

0:10:51.120 --> 0:10:54.240
<v Speaker 1>you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

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<v Speaker 6>Poll Sweeney and scarletfu here on Bloomberg Intelligence with you

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<v Speaker 6>in New York City, And Paul, can you believe it's

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<v Speaker 6>been just over months since the Supreme Court basically said,

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<v Speaker 6>you know what, We're not going to go forward with

0:11:07.200 --> 0:11:09.640
<v Speaker 6>those a tariffs. Yeah, I mean, there's so much has

0:11:09.640 --> 0:11:12.040
<v Speaker 6>happened in March. It's kind of yes, kind of hard

0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:15.280
<v Speaker 6>to believe that it's been about a month. But since then,

0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:17.400
<v Speaker 6>we know a lot of retailers, we know a lot

0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.680
<v Speaker 6>of companies have been applying for refunds. They are seeking

0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.640
<v Speaker 6>refunds for those tariffs that they paid since the tariffs

0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:27.160
<v Speaker 6>were imposed. Steve Lamar is President and CEO of the

0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:30.000
<v Speaker 6>American Apparel and Footwear Association. Of course, many of his

0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:32.640
<v Speaker 6>members have a lot of money at stake here, Steve,

0:11:32.800 --> 0:11:35.800
<v Speaker 6>just give us a state of the state of the

0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:38.200
<v Speaker 6>world here when it comes to your members and how

0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:41.000
<v Speaker 6>they are trying to secure refunds from the government.

0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.080
<v Speaker 7>Well, yeah, and first off, thank you for having me on.

0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:49.240
<v Speaker 7>We were very appreciative of the Supreme Court taking this decision.

0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:53.880
<v Speaker 7>It was the right decision. Really confirms that Congress is

0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.800
<v Speaker 7>responsible for tariff policy article on section eight. You can

0:11:56.840 --> 0:11:58.960
<v Speaker 7>look it up if you don't believe me. And we're

0:11:59.000 --> 0:12:02.520
<v Speaker 7>really pleased to see the court made that decision. Our

0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:07.079
<v Speaker 7>attitude is that refunds should be returned the same way

0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 7>they were collected, automatically, fully, quickly to the import of record.

0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:15.160
<v Speaker 7>You know, the individual that paid the tariffs, they should

0:12:15.160 --> 0:12:17.280
<v Speaker 7>be the ones that get the money back. They can

0:12:17.280 --> 0:12:19.480
<v Speaker 7>then decide what they end up doing with it, if

0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:21.560
<v Speaker 7>it gets passed along to the consumer, if it gets

0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:24.880
<v Speaker 7>passed to the workforce, if it's used for investment. A

0:12:24.880 --> 0:12:27.480
<v Speaker 7>lot of our manufacturers they've had to put investment on

0:12:27.520 --> 0:12:30.000
<v Speaker 7>hold for the last year because they haven't had the

0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.560
<v Speaker 7>money to be able to make those investments. And now

0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:36.040
<v Speaker 7>and probably one of the biggest pro manufacturing things that

0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.559
<v Speaker 7>have happened. All these manufacturers in our industry and in

0:12:39.640 --> 0:12:41.560
<v Speaker 7>other places are going to be able to see that

0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 7>money again so they can be able to drive those

0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:44.680
<v Speaker 7>investments going forward.

0:12:45.160 --> 0:12:48.240
<v Speaker 3>I think, Steve, a lot of people are very skeptical

0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 3>that this process of returning the terrors can.

0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:55.200
<v Speaker 2>Even work, will work. What do you guys think We

0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:55.960
<v Speaker 2>think it will work.

0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:59.360
<v Speaker 7>We think it has to work, you know, Congress. Well,

0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:03.440
<v Speaker 7>you know, whenever the US government takes money that they're

0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.000
<v Speaker 7>not allowed to take. I mean, it's a well established principle.

0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:09.200
<v Speaker 7>It's a very immutable law, probably more so than gravity.

0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:10.880
<v Speaker 7>You know, they have to return the money, and they

0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:14.760
<v Speaker 7>have to return the money with interest. In fact, probably

0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.559
<v Speaker 7>half a billion dollars of interest gets incurred by the

0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.280
<v Speaker 7>US government every month. There is a delay, so there's

0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:24.600
<v Speaker 7>a powerful incentive not only to repay the money that

0:13:24.600 --> 0:13:27.640
<v Speaker 7>they've already taken incorrectly, but to do it quickly so

0:13:27.679 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 7>they don't keep running up the bill at the taxpayer expense.

0:13:32.080 --> 0:13:35.280
<v Speaker 6>Do we have any evidence that the process has started that,

0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:38.079
<v Speaker 6>you know, some of your manufacturers are going to get

0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.120
<v Speaker 6>a refund in a week, two weeks.

0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:43.600
<v Speaker 7>Five weeks. I wish I could tell you those specific numbers.

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:46.120
<v Speaker 7>I'll give you two data points. One is the US

0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:52.280
<v Speaker 7>government refunds customs tariffs every single day. They've been doing

0:13:52.280 --> 0:13:54.839
<v Speaker 7>it for years and years and years. It is part

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 7>of the natural rhythm. Companies import, they overpay their tariffs,

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.560
<v Speaker 7>get the tariffs back. So and you can look this up.

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 7>The Treasury Department reports this on a daily basis. Reality

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 7>actually is the amount of tariffs that we're talking about,

0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.559
<v Speaker 7>and the amount of refund entities that we're talking about

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:15.400
<v Speaker 7>is much less than what the US government does every

0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:21.080
<v Speaker 7>year when they refund taxes to individual tax filers about

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.400
<v Speaker 7>one hundred and seventeen million tax filers in twenty twenty four,

0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:27.200
<v Speaker 7>three hundred and thirty one thousand importers record, So you

0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.760
<v Speaker 7>can tell the numbers are just a fraction when we

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:33.600
<v Speaker 7>look at the tariff refunds. And the other thing is

0:14:33.640 --> 0:14:36.480
<v Speaker 7>that the Court of International Trade, which is the court

0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:40.960
<v Speaker 7>that has jurisdiction over these issues, directed by the Supreme Court,

0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 7>is in a very far along in a process with

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:49.760
<v Speaker 7>Customs and Border Protection to oversee the development of a

0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:54.040
<v Speaker 7>system to ensure the orderly repayment of the refunds, again

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.480
<v Speaker 7>with interest to the importer's record. So that process is

0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.040
<v Speaker 7>well and well advanced.

0:15:00.240 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 2>President Trump.

0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 3>The administration remains very hawkish as it remained it relates

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.400
<v Speaker 3>to tariffs, talking about Section one twenty two, Section three

0:15:08.480 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 3>oh one, blah blah blah.

0:15:10.320 --> 0:15:11.480
<v Speaker 2>How is that going to play out?

0:15:11.920 --> 0:15:14.680
<v Speaker 7>Well, the President is a big fan of tariffs, as

0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:18.800
<v Speaker 7>you pointed out, and he is really looking at trying

0:15:18.840 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 7>to recreate the system that was struck down by the

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:28.040
<v Speaker 7>Supreme Court. They've turned on one never used before provision

0:15:28.080 --> 0:15:30.840
<v Speaker 7>of trade law, the section one twenty two. A lot

0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:35.000
<v Speaker 7>of confusion, a lot of conflict about whether that's an

0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:38.040
<v Speaker 7>appropriate step to take. Section threeh one, which is a

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 7>more established provision of trade law, is being used here

0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:45.280
<v Speaker 7>in this situation as well, and there's a case there

0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.760
<v Speaker 7>where maybe it's being used in a way that it's

0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:51.120
<v Speaker 7>not normally being used. I mean, normally Section three oh

0:15:51.160 --> 0:15:54.480
<v Speaker 7>one is an investigation in search of answers, but right

0:15:54.520 --> 0:15:56.400
<v Speaker 7>now we sort of have an answer kind of in

0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.560
<v Speaker 7>search of an investigation, because they're literally trying to recreate

0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 7>this system that they had in placed before.

0:16:02.280 --> 0:16:04.840
<v Speaker 6>Steve, we also have to ask you about the war

0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:07.840
<v Speaker 6>in Iran and what that means for your members. Certainly,

0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:12.000
<v Speaker 6>rising oil prices trickles through right away, and that has

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.120
<v Speaker 6>increased our costs at a time when there were already

0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:18.000
<v Speaker 6>concerns about whether the economy was slowing down even before

0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:18.600
<v Speaker 6>the war began.

0:16:19.400 --> 0:16:22.280
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so we're obviously it's a it's a it's a

0:16:22.360 --> 0:16:24.680
<v Speaker 7>terrible situation. We hope they'll be able to resolve this

0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:28.680
<v Speaker 7>as quickly as possible to you know, wars is always

0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.800
<v Speaker 7>is always really difficult. But you know, when you look

0:16:31.840 --> 0:16:34.440
<v Speaker 7>at it from the lens of oil, oil is oil

0:16:34.520 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 7>is more than just fuel. I mean it shows up

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:42.880
<v Speaker 7>in fabric and fertilizer, in you know, so many different ways,

0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:47.480
<v Speaker 7>in freight, and and ultimately that can then become part

0:16:47.560 --> 0:16:50.240
<v Speaker 7>of the final price tag that you as consumers pay.

0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:52.440
<v Speaker 7>And again that's just not just in our industry. We

0:16:52.480 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 7>would see that really across the boards, I think, really

0:16:55.680 --> 0:16:59.960
<v Speaker 7>looking beyond just our industry, which is very globally folk,

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.359
<v Speaker 7>you have really a lot of our economy is praying

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.199
<v Speaker 7>for looking for a quick resolution. So not only do

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:12.159
<v Speaker 7>we see the adverse impacts on oil, but also the

0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:15.240
<v Speaker 7>adversee impacts on the logistics that had been.

0:17:15.000 --> 0:17:16.080
<v Speaker 5>Created as a result of this.

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:18.560
<v Speaker 7>And keep in mind we still have the problem with

0:17:18.600 --> 0:17:21.000
<v Speaker 7>the Red Sea, which hasn't fully returned to normal. There's

0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:23.800
<v Speaker 7>some tentative steps there, but that's far from where it

0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:24.199
<v Speaker 7>should be.

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.359
<v Speaker 3>Steve about thirty seconds left with some hindsight, Now do

0:17:27.400 --> 0:17:29.400
<v Speaker 3>we know who paid tariffs?

0:17:29.440 --> 0:17:30.680
<v Speaker 2>Who is paying tariffs?

0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.879
<v Speaker 7>Well, with hindsight and foresight, tariffs are paid by the

0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 7>importer of record. In some cases that gets passed along

0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:43.400
<v Speaker 7>in some cases that gets totally eaten by the manufacturer,

0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.320
<v Speaker 7>the importer whoever actually paid the tariffs. Really it is

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.200
<v Speaker 7>a case by case thing where you have to each

0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 7>individual company and infect on many of the different product

0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:55.080
<v Speaker 7>lines will have very very different answers, So.

0:17:55.000 --> 0:17:57.240
<v Speaker 3>We don't like, I guess a lot of folks are saying, hey,

0:17:57.440 --> 0:18:02.960
<v Speaker 3>it's certainly wasn't the exporter probably, So it's some combination

0:18:03.040 --> 0:18:06.240
<v Speaker 3>of consumer the corporate food chains.

0:18:06.600 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 2>That's kind of where it's all kind of dealt.

0:18:09.600 --> 0:18:13.040
<v Speaker 7>With exactly right. Some tariffs are a costs that's imposted

0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.480
<v Speaker 7>on the supply chain, and different companies will absorb or

0:18:16.560 --> 0:18:19.000
<v Speaker 7>pass that cost along, and that will change over time,

0:18:19.800 --> 0:18:23.280
<v Speaker 7>you know, ultimately, ultimately, ultimately over many years. Tariffs are

0:18:23.280 --> 0:18:25.760
<v Speaker 7>costs that, like every other cost, ultimately get passed along

0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:28.520
<v Speaker 7>to consumers, sometimes in the form of fire prices, but

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:32.199
<v Speaker 7>they make their way really throughout the entire supply chain

0:18:32.240 --> 0:18:33.160
<v Speaker 7>a lot of differents.

0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:39.399
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