WEBVTT - NBA Awards and Playoff Odds (Ep. 85) 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:15.240 It's time to place your bets. Let's talk to the pros. 0:00:23.160 --> 0:00:26.000 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros, and it's time to 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:29.040 talk a little NBA. It's me Joey p Joe piez Apia. 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:31.400 Welcome to the show everybody. We've got a great one 0:00:31.400 --> 0:00:33.879 for you today. One of my boys, one of my 0:00:34.000 --> 0:00:38.120 Jersey guys who I've done probably thousands of shows with 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:41.360 now over the last five plus years of my life. 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:43.880 He's one of my good friends. But he's also one 0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:46.440 of the best folks in terms of NBA to talk 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.640 to out there on the landscape, whether it be DFS, 0:00:48.840 --> 0:00:51.040 whether it be wagering, and today, of course we're talking 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:54.080 to him about wagering. He's the head of betting content 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:57.120 over at Fade the Noise and that's FTN for those 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:58.960 of you cool kids. And as you could see here 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:01.520 if you're watching us on the YouTube channel, you see 0:01:01.560 --> 0:01:04.720 him flashing the little stuff there right there. He is 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:08.080 a product placement all the time. But he is one 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:11.280 of my favorite dudes. He's my Pizon. He's Benny Richardi. Everybody. 0:01:11.319 --> 0:01:13.240 Welcome to the show. Benny, how you doing brother. 0:01:13.480 --> 0:01:15.240 That's a hell of an intro right there. Bro sif 0:01:15.240 --> 0:01:17.840 I love it right there? But yeah, I mean, you 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:19.319 know how it is when you start getting old, John, 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:21.720 I don't even go like close shopping anymore. Everything I 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:23.560 have is given to me by like one of the 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:25.399 companies that I do a show for, one of the 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:27.800 companies that I hop on for. I'm waiting for my 0:01:27.800 --> 0:01:31.240 betting Pro T shirt right now, so this right now 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.000 that I need one of those, because summer's coming up. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:34.080 I need some new T shirts. 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:36.520 So you know I don't even have one yet. I mean, 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.200 if I don't know how you could get one Before 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.080 I get one, I gotta get more swag. I mean, 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:42.600 but you're right, you are the swag king. There's no 0:01:42.640 --> 0:01:45.680 doubt about that. Absolutely that is the case. And today 0:01:45.720 --> 0:01:47.360 we're gonna do with Benny's We're gonna go through some 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:50.120 NBA stuff. We're getting towards the playoffs now, so we're 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.040 gonna go through some of the bets for some of 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:54.320 the awards, what's out there, what's even worth looking at. 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:56.280 We're also going to talk about some of the conferences, 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:58.240 some of the standings where we're at right now, and 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.440 maybe a little look into the playoffs, see what's going on, 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:03.480 what Benny likes as we're kind of heading closer and 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:06.280 closer to that, and look, it's it's been a pretty 0:02:06.360 --> 0:02:08.280 dark good NBA season. I would say, you know, I 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:09.919 know a lot of people were kind of skeptical going 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.120 in once again, and I feel like, you know, the 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:14.280 further we get down here, the more we're getting to 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:17.160 more of a sense of normalcy with things, which is great. 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:19.560 We've seen what's happened last year with the NFL and 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:21.800 then obviously with Major League Baseball this year with crowds 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:23.840 being back. So you know, let's start with some of 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:28.320 the awards, Benny. Let's start with MVP, which Nikola Djokic 0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:31.959 is at minus four hundred on consensus Betting Pros right now. Again, 0:02:32.160 --> 0:02:34.519 Betting Pros takes the consensus from all the different houses 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:37.040 kind of compiles them into one number. After that, you 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:39.919 got Joel Embiid at plus three fifty and Steph Curry 0:02:39.960 --> 0:02:43.000 at plus fourteen hundred. So I'm just gonna be simple 0:02:43.040 --> 0:02:45.240 with this. Is this just a foregone conclusion? 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:45.640 Here? 0:02:45.960 --> 0:02:48.040 Is this something you just completely stay away from or 0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:50.560 you know, I mean, because the odds minus four hundred 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:52.600 laying four to win one hundred seems kind of crazy 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:54.440 to me. Do you think there's any chance that embiid 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:56.280 or anybody else sneaks in this conversation? 0:02:57.160 --> 0:03:00.160 So? Do I think Djokis is the favorite right now 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:02.880 to win it? Absolutely? Do I think he should be 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:05.679 minus four hundred? No, I don't. I would not lay 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:08.920 money on him at minus four hundred right now. Basically 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:10.960 at minus four hundred, you're saying he has an eighty 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:14.240 percent chance of winning this award right now, and I 0:03:14.240 --> 0:03:16.240 think it's above fifty percent, but I wouldn't go as 0:03:16.320 --> 0:03:18.200 high as eighty. And like I said, he is probably 0:03:18.240 --> 0:03:20.360 the guy who's most likely to win, But do you 0:03:20.440 --> 0:03:22.760 really want to lay one hundred dollars to win twenty five? Like? 0:03:22.800 --> 0:03:25.320 That's basically what you're looking at here at minus four hundred. 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.200 I think Steph Curry is worth a little bit of 0:03:29.240 --> 0:03:31.919 a gamble here because of all these other guys, he's 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:34.840 the one. Him and Embiide have a little bit of 0:03:34.840 --> 0:03:37.320 a chance here. Now. The reason why I say, if 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:39.280 you're gonna make a little gamble here, I'd rather do 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:41.680 Steph Curry is because you're getting Steph Curry at like 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.320 plus what did you say plus fourteen hundred was the 0:03:44.480 --> 0:03:46.440 if you're gonna make a wager, that's probably the better 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.000 way to go on it right now. Now again, do 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:49.320 I think Steph Curry is gonna win it? No, I 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:51.840 do think Nankolea Jokic is gonna win it. But I 0:03:51.880 --> 0:03:54.040 think that at twenty to one on Steph Curry, or 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:56.080 even fifteen to one on Steph Curry, that's given him 0:03:56.120 --> 0:03:58.760 like a five or six percent chance of winning this award. 0:03:58.760 --> 0:04:00.920 And I think he's probably closer to maybe ten percent 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:03.080 here because if you look at the numbers this year, 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:05.880 he's the guy. I mean, it depends what do you 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:08.240 count as what makes a guy the most valuable to 0:04:08.280 --> 0:04:10.680 his team, Because to me, one of the things that 0:04:10.760 --> 0:04:13.320 I look at is the expected win total that that 0:04:13.360 --> 0:04:16.080 player creates for his team. So basically, they look at 0:04:16.120 --> 0:04:18.160 the stats and they say, a guy like this, if 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:19.800 you put him off this team and put him on 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.120 another team, this is the number of expected wins a 0:04:22.160 --> 0:04:24.679 guy with these stats would have. You know, Steph Curry 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:28.159 is thirty three. He's leading the league. So by that metric, 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:30.240 he is the most valuable player in the league to 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:33.279 his team. His team would be thirty three depending on 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:35.840 who the substitution is, but if you substitute him with 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.479 the league average player, they would be thirty three games 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:40.960 worse off than they are with Steph Curry. Nobody else's 0:04:41.320 --> 0:04:43.880 you know, even close to that number. Joelle Embiid, I think, 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:46.440 is at thirty one, So he's another guy that's like 0:04:46.520 --> 0:04:49.039 kind of in that conversation. But Steph has the best 0:04:49.120 --> 0:04:51.720 number in the league overall. There. But again, you and 0:04:51.760 --> 0:04:53.520 I know Joe that a lot of these things aren't 0:04:53.520 --> 0:04:56.200 based on stats, right these are they're voted on by 0:04:56.400 --> 0:04:56.680 you know. 0:04:56.640 --> 0:04:59.480 Writers, their media awards, That's what they are. Yeah, And 0:04:59.640 --> 0:05:00.279 one of the. 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:01.920 The things that goes along with that is they usually 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:03.600 give it to a guy who's on the team that's 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:06.160 winning a lot of games. And you know, there are 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:09.640 other guys who have had better stats than Djokich has 0:05:09.680 --> 0:05:12.440 this season, but he's the guy that's avoided being hurt. Like, 0:05:12.440 --> 0:05:14.720 if Joel Embiid didn't get hurt, there's a good chance 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:17.240 Joel Embiid could be the guy who is the you know, 0:05:17.320 --> 0:05:20.400 the one in the clubhouse leader right now. If Lebron 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:22.720 didn't get hurt. Lebron was having some really good numbers 0:05:22.720 --> 0:05:24.880 on both ends of the floor this year, there's a 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.080 guy that you could be there. You know, Giannis is 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.640 not great on the offensive end, but he's still a 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:32.080 well above average offensive player, and he's one of the 0:05:32.120 --> 0:05:34.279 elite defensive players in the league, like a top five 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:36.560 guy when it comes to you know, points safe per 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:39.080 one hundred possessions. So a lot of these guys had 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:40.719 a chance, but a lot of these guys also miss 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.799 time right now. So really, the guy who's been consistent 0:05:44.120 --> 0:05:46.840 and who has played even above expectations a little bit 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:49.360 this year and whose team is winning games right now 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:52.520 is Nicola Jocis, which is why he is the clubhouse leader. 0:05:52.560 --> 0:05:54.920 But of all the ones we're gonna talk about, there's 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.080 a couple other clubhouse leaders that I'd be like, yeah, 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:58.880 you could put money on him at that price if 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:01.280 you want to, Jokis is the one that I would 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:03.000 not be betting on here. This is a guy with 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:05.839 only twelve expected wins above you know what he would 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:08.600 normally gap for a replacement player here. Not that that's 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:10.599 a bad number either, that's still a good number, but 0:06:10.680 --> 0:06:13.040 it's just if not Steph Curry's thirty three, it's not 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:15.240 joell In BEA's thirty one, Like if that's how we're 0:06:15.279 --> 0:06:18.599 measuring someone's worse to a team. He's really not the 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.640 guy who has meant the most to his team this year. 0:06:20.880 --> 0:06:23.040 Well, I mean, I look across the board and only 0:06:23.320 --> 0:06:26.000 the lowest number I see here is minus three fifty 0:06:26.000 --> 0:06:28.960 seven over at bet MGM for Djokich. And that still 0:06:29.000 --> 0:06:31.880 seems like, you know, a hard pass there. And I 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:33.479 like the case that you're making for Curry, and I 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:36.680 think you know, in sense of like media award right now, 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:38.320 it seems like the grounds well is going there. But 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:41.840 I think you're right. It definitely feels as though it, No, 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:44.080 it shouldn't be so much of a favorite right now. 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.119 It feels like it should be a little bit tighter. 0:06:46.279 --> 0:06:48.200 You know, we're talking betting numbers right now, So it's 0:06:48.240 --> 0:06:50.839 not it's not that I'm saying Nicola Jokis probably isn't 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:52.520 gonna win. I just don't think that he should be 0:06:53.080 --> 0:06:54.839 eighty percent to win. If you told me he was 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:56.599 even money right now, I'd be like, yeah, I'm gonna 0:06:56.640 --> 0:06:58.320 bet on him, and even money. You told me he 0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:00.839 was even maybe minus one p fifty minus two hundred, 0:07:00.920 --> 0:07:03.880 so like sixty sixty six percent, I'd probably be like 0:07:03.880 --> 0:07:05.280 all right, Yeah, he's still the guy we should be 0:07:05.279 --> 0:07:07.839 putting money on. And minus four hundred though there's no 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:10.160 value there, there's I'll give you something that's a bigger 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.000 lock that we're gonna talk about in a little in 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.360 a minute. That's a better number than minus four hundred 0:07:14.360 --> 0:07:15.840 that we should be betting on if we're gonna do it. 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:17.720 All right, Well, let's move on to the next war here, 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:19.560 talk about Rookie of the Year, because we've got LaMelo 0:07:19.640 --> 0:07:21.840 Ball at minus three h five and Anthony Edwards at 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:24.360 plus two hundred. Again, those are the consensus numbers, and 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:26.400 you go to bettingpros dot com to see all these 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.720 consensus numbers and you can go pick and choose if 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:30.400 you do like a wager, Well, where can I get 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.640 the best odds? So is this particularly one that you've 0:07:33.680 --> 0:07:36.160 got your eye on. Ball's played very well obviously this year. 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:39.440 Edwards now slouch either, But right now it's telling you 0:07:39.520 --> 0:07:41.000 that Ball is a clear favorite. 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:43.239 Yeah. I mean to be honest, it's not particularly close 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.240 between the two of them. On the floor of this year. 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:47.880 Anthony Edwards had a couple of good games, he's a 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.520 good scorer, but LaMelo Ball is the much better player, 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:54.200 is the much better all around player, and is gonna 0:07:54.240 --> 0:07:56.800 be the much better NBA player as well long term here. 0:07:57.480 --> 0:07:59.600 Plus he has the name recognition that is gonna help 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:02.160 him out anyway. Even though Anthony Edwards was the first pick, 0:08:02.360 --> 0:08:03.800 I gotta be honest with you, Joe, I'm going to 0:08:03.840 --> 0:08:05.800 give a shout out here to an honorable mention guy 0:08:05.880 --> 0:08:08.520 that I like even better than Anthony Edwards. I would 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:11.240 rather vote for Tyrese Haliburton that I would for Anthony 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:14.040 Edwards this year. I think he's had a better overall season. 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.440 Right now with the Aaron Fox out on the COVID protocol, 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.080 he's getting a chance to kind of run the team, 0:08:19.320 --> 0:08:22.160 putting up like double double numbers and points and assist 0:08:22.280 --> 0:08:24.480 every night. To me, I always thought he had a 0:08:24.480 --> 0:08:27.440 better season than Anthony Edwards did. Again, Anthony Edwards had 0:08:27.520 --> 0:08:29.400 such a bad start to the year and his team 0:08:29.520 --> 0:08:32.360 was so bad too. It's not like, you know, sometimes 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:34.600 there's a number one overall pick like Lebron comes in 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:36.960 and you know, changes his team's fortune in one season. 0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.360 If it was a situation like that, I'd be like, yeah, 0:08:39.400 --> 0:08:41.880 you have to give it to Anthony Edwards. But I 0:08:42.000 --> 0:08:44.600 just I don't think he's done enough to even I 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:46.480 even told people that I don't know if I would 0:08:46.480 --> 0:08:48.680 want to bet on him. Even if LaMelo Ball was 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:50.920 like out for the season and never came back, I 0:08:50.920 --> 0:08:53.640 still thought LaMelo Ball missing the last couple, you know, 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:56.160 the last couple weeks of the season, already had this 0:08:56.240 --> 0:08:58.200 award locked up because he was by far the best 0:08:58.240 --> 0:09:02.000 rookie out there. He's still the guy. And again, you 0:09:02.040 --> 0:09:04.480 could take Jokitch at minus four hundred, or you could 0:09:04.480 --> 0:09:06.560 take LaMelo Ball here at like minus three zho five 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:09.480 minus three zero two. Those numbers are just better. So 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:11.400 if you're gonna put money on something, put it on 0:09:11.400 --> 0:09:13.080 where you're gonna get the better return. I'd rather be 0:09:13.120 --> 0:09:13.760 here on LaMelo. 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:16.080 All right, So let's move on to the next one here, 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:19.000 which is I mean, look, Julius Randall's had a great 0:09:19.040 --> 0:09:21.480 season here for the Knicks, and the Knicks really showed 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:23.160 a lot of life here down the stretch, and they 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:24.839 showed a lot of life early on the season two, 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:26.360 and they got people kind of exciting, and then of 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:28.800 course they did that Nix lull, which you know, the 0:09:28.840 --> 0:09:30.640 Knicks are like, well, okay, I guess we've kind of 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:32.520 righted the ship and realized who we are again. But 0:09:32.920 --> 0:09:35.720 then again it kind of peaked as we're getting closer 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:37.839 to the end of the season. So Randall right now 0:09:37.880 --> 0:09:40.040 is at minus five hundred for this award, Jeremy Grant, 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:42.200 Is it plus four hundred? Is this another one where 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:43.600 it's just a lock and you walk away because it 0:09:43.600 --> 0:09:44.200 feels like it? 0:09:44.400 --> 0:09:46.840 Yeah, I mean there's really no there's no argument that. 0:09:46.880 --> 0:09:49.960 It's no argument there. Yeah, I mean there was there 0:09:50.000 --> 0:09:51.400 was a point in the season where there were like 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:53.400 three or four guys in the entire NBA who were 0:09:53.480 --> 0:09:55.719 leading their team in points, rebounds on the sist and 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:57.839 Julius Randall was one of them. The other ones were 0:09:57.880 --> 0:10:02.319 like Luca, Luca Jihni MVP guys. Right, yeah, exactly, Like 0:10:02.360 --> 0:10:04.280 if you're in that company, that's that's the company that 0:10:04.320 --> 0:10:06.839 you're in. He has been a godsend for the Knicks 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:09.959 this year. He's been basically their entire offense because that's 0:10:10.000 --> 0:10:12.360 really what that team struggles with on the offensive side, 0:10:12.679 --> 0:10:14.439 and his defense has been a little bit better too. 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:15.920 I mean, he's always been known as a guy who's 0:10:15.920 --> 0:10:18.120 been kind of a dog on defense, but the Knicks 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:19.920 have one of the top defenses in the league this year. 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:21.880 I think they're giving up the third fewest points per 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.760 one hundred possessions right now. And you know what, Randall's 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:27.400 numbers look better than they have. So coming to the 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.000 Knicks has been great for him. He's played as well 0:10:30.040 --> 0:10:32.160 as anybody could this year. You know, he's had triple 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:34.280 doubles at some points this season. He's had a whole 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:36.719 bunch of games with double digit assists that we made 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:38.720 a lot of money on betting on over at FTN. 0:10:38.840 --> 0:10:41.120 It's like my favorite bet this year. Everybody over there 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:43.440 will be like, oh, you're playing Julius Randall assist again. Well, yeah, 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:45.719 it keeps getting it. You know, the guy's gonna keep 0:10:45.720 --> 0:10:47.320 going over to number. We're gonna keep playing it. So 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:49.320 I love Julius Randall. He's made me a lot of 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:51.720 money this year. I'm just not willing to invest anymore 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:53.800 of that. At minus five hundred er, I mean, do 0:10:53.840 --> 0:10:55.800 I think it's a lock? Yeah, you can get like 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:58.200 sixteen seventeen cents on the dollar for every dollar you 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:00.760 put in there. I mean, if you really don't, you know, 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:02.839 have any other use for that money. Between now and 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:04.800 the end of the season the next three weeks. But 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:06.520 I don't mean throw it in there, but you're not 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.240 gonna get You're not gonna get that great of a return. 0:11:08.280 --> 0:11:10.360 But I do think it's pretty much a lock, all right. 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:12.040 I was talk about Defensive Player of the Year. Rudy 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:14.040 Gobert in minus three thirty five is like it says 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:16.640 this number. Ben sim is at plus two thirty a 0:11:16.679 --> 0:11:19.160 little bit tighter, but again clear favorite here with Gobert 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:20.760 and Miles Turner is kind of pulling up the rear 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:24.839 a plus seven. So again, it's very heavy favorites here. 0:11:24.840 --> 0:11:27.120 It's just a matter of are we interested in the 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.080 lock favorite here? And Gobert is that lock favorite When 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:31.679 it comes to Defensive Player of the year feels like 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:32.360 as well. 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.880 Yeah, I think it is because Utah has been the 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:38.720 best team in the NBA this year. And that's not hyperbole. 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:42.359 That's they have the highest point differential per one hundred possessions. 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:45.760 You know, they're like top five offensive production per one 0:11:45.800 --> 0:11:49.200 hundred offensive efficiency. They're number one I think right now 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.440 currently on defensive efficiency as well. So I mean, this 0:11:52.480 --> 0:11:54.760 is a legit team right there, but they don't have 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:57.480 a legit superstar who's gonna win the MVP, Like Donovan 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:00.679 Mitchell's their superstar. He's not gonna be an MVP candidate. 0:12:01.160 --> 0:12:03.600 The writers aren't going to allow this team to have 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.200 this good of a season and not have, you know, 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.120 some kind of awards coming their way. And listen, Rudy 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:11.440 Gobert is a deserving favorite for this too. I don't 0:12:11.440 --> 0:12:13.400 want you to think that he's not. Like when you 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:16.280 look at defensive numbers, there points per one hundred possessions, 0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:18.400 which is the stat that everybody uses, as you know, 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.960 the main one for defense because it kind of encompasses everything. There, 0:12:22.280 --> 0:12:24.720 Rudy Gobert is leading the league. He is worth eleven 0:12:24.760 --> 0:12:27.480 and a half points to a team per one hundred 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.280 possessions on the defensive side. Without Rudy Gobert, you would 0:12:30.320 --> 0:12:32.160 expect that team to score eleven, you know, to have 0:12:32.200 --> 0:12:34.720 eleven more points per game scored. Upon him, There's only 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:36.840 two guys that are over ten. It's him and teammate 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:39.679 Mike Connolly. And you know, like I said, by far, 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.320 statistically you can make the case that he is head 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:44.600 and shoulders above everybody else in the league. So I 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:47.640 understand the three thirty five what I don't understand is 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:50.000 the guys that are behind them. Ben Simmons, who I 0:12:50.040 --> 0:12:52.040 love and I love Ben Simmons. Ben Simmons is one 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:53.880 of the few guys in the NBA that you can 0:12:53.960 --> 0:12:57.320 legitimately put on any player one through five, whether it 0:12:57.320 --> 0:12:59.480 be the opposing center, of the opposing point guard, or 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:01.840 anything in between, and he could guard that guy. So 0:13:01.920 --> 0:13:05.000 he is the arguably the most versatile defender in the NBA, 0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.640 which is great, but his numbers aren't jumping off the 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.040 page as like, Oh, this guy deserves to be, you know, 0:13:11.280 --> 0:13:13.280 the defensive player of the Year. Without him, his team's 0:13:13.280 --> 0:13:15.880 defense wouldn't be bad. They're a very good defensive team 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:17.600 and they've been a very good defensive team even in 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:19.840 games that Ben Simmons didn't play. So is he a 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.160 great defensive player? Absolutely? Is he a positives to them 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.040 on defense? Yes? Does he completely change a game like 0:13:25.120 --> 0:13:27.440 Rudy Gobert does And the answer to that is no. 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:30.080 So I will do this. And Miles Turner. I have 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.680 no idea why that Miles Turner is on this list. 0:13:32.679 --> 0:13:34.680 It makes no sense to me that he is the 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.000 third one on this list whatsoever. But I need to 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:38.559 I want to throw the third guys in there, the 0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:40.560 guys that should be on this list. Mike Connelly should 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:42.640 be on this list because, like I said, second best 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:45.120 defensive number there, one of the best defensive point guards 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:46.920 in the game has been for a really long time. 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:48.960 Does he get enough credit? Really? Hope he's First Team 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.920 All Defense this year. You know, Giannis every year deserves 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:53.199 to be there, and you can say what you want 0:13:53.200 --> 0:13:55.560 about him. The guy's an absolute beast, very much like 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.960 Ben Simmons, can guard just about anybody on the floor 0:13:58.000 --> 0:14:00.439 at any time. He's long, he rebounds, there's a ton 0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:02.560 for your defense right there. And then the other guy 0:14:02.559 --> 0:14:05.400 who's unsung and people don't consider him a great defensive player, 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:07.959 but his defensive numbers have been amazing this year has 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:10.880 been Clint Capella. Clint Capella is a big reason why 0:14:10.880 --> 0:14:13.440 the Atlanta Hawk games don't end up one fifty, one 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:16.000 forty every single night. They still get there every once 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:17.480 in a while and a bunch of one twenties and 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:19.880 one thirties, But Clint Coppella deserves a lot more credit 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:22.040 than he's getting on defense as well. So those should 0:14:22.080 --> 0:14:25.120 be the names behind Rudy Gobert. But Unfortunately, Rudy Gobert 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:27.280 should win this at three thirty five. If you don't 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.440 like the LaMelo play, this is the other place I 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:31.280 put my money before I put it on joking. 0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:33.440 Now in some spots like on FanDuel, actually though the 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.440 odds are vastly different, but again, this is the consensus 0:14:36.520 --> 0:14:38.920 number where you know, it's just I also feel like 0:14:39.000 --> 0:14:41.960 you know with the NBA too, there's there's an easier, 0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:44.080 clearer narrative with a lot of these players too, that 0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.240 kind of builds over time and then it gets kind 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:48.840 of locked in, and it's very different than the NFL, 0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:50.840 and it's very because the NFL is very moving, Like 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:52.840 in the beginning of the year, it was very Russell Wilson, 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:54.560 and then it gets sort of to turn to Kyler 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.400 Murray for a little bit in that discussion, and then that 0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:59.080 went away and Ebsen flows and eventually it's Josh Allen 0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:00.960 and Josh Allen kind of all on the peripheral. But 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:02.760 with the NBA, I feel like some of these awards 0:15:02.800 --> 0:15:05.400 they just get locked in and then the narrative drives 0:15:05.440 --> 0:15:07.560 itself and then it makes it very difficult by this 0:15:07.600 --> 0:15:09.960 time of the season to really get any sort of value. 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.040 But I think we can find some value here with 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.440 some of these wagers. So let's with just a few 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.040 games left here, let's talk about the Atlantic Division winner. 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:19.320 We got the Sixers right now, the consensus number to 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:22.080 win the Atlantic Division minus won thirty nine and the 0:15:22.120 --> 0:15:25.240 Nets at even money. So looking at those two right now, 0:15:25.720 --> 0:15:27.760 where do you put your money, if anywhere, on one 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:28.600 of these two teams? 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:30.800 Yeah, so I would rather have my money on the 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.800 Nets here, and there's two reasons why. So after last 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:36.800 night's game, the Sixers are forty and twenty one. The 0:15:36.880 --> 0:15:39.120 Nets are forty one and twenty. They're playing seventy two 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.320 games this year, so they both have eleven games left. 0:15:42.400 --> 0:15:44.440 When you break down those numbers and you put them 0:15:44.440 --> 0:15:46.640 into odds and even money, it says that the Nets 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:49.400 have a fifty percent chance of winning the division, and 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.440 minus one thirty nine, you're giving the seventy six Ers 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:54.840 a fifty eight percent chance to win the division. Now, 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:57.240 there's a good chance that these two teams both go 0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.720 I don't know, seven and four or eight and three 0:15:59.760 --> 0:16:02.160 three about the end of the season, because based on 0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.360 their win percentages this year, that's what you would expect 0:16:04.360 --> 0:16:06.240 them to win about two thirds of the remaining games 0:16:06.280 --> 0:16:08.800 that they have, which with eleven games means they're both 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:11.120 gonna wind up with six or seven wins here. And 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.720 the Nets already have one game up on the Philadelphia 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:16.720 seventy six ers, so you know, they could basically match 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.080 the seventy six ers record and still wind up winning 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:21.480